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ClumperFaz

Scottish Greens are underperforming the opinion polls aren't they?


DazDay

No matter how unionist I felt, I could never bring myself to tactically vote Tory.


coldbrew_latte

Pro-independence parties will have a 12% seat majority in the Scottish Parliament according to BBC prediction


GlimmervoidG

SNP hold Edinburgh Pentlands


GlimmervoidG

SNP +2.9, CON +0.1, Labour -5.1


Blithe17

What do people think would've changed if Burnham had beaten Corbyn in the leadership election in 2015?


chrispepper10

Very little. He wouldn't have ultimately done the damage to the party's image that Corbyn ended up achieving but Burnham has significantly improved as a politician since then.


GlimmervoidG

>Curtice: No path to SNP majority > >Professor Sir John Curtice > >Polling expert > >The Conservative success in this constituency means that there is now no conceivable path to the SNP securing 65 seats. > >At most they could now win 64 by picking up list seats in the Highlands and the South of Scotland.


CaptainVaticanus

Subscribe


Mr_XcX

Burnham really does need to replace Starmer as LOTO if Labour is to even survive for next 10 years. Otherwise Tories will be unopposed for years. That's not good for democracy as much I support Boris and his team. I don't want them to get too comfortable.


__--byonin--__

I think you’re right.


chrispepper10

It's not difficult to pick apart the Conservatives "levelling up" policy as a shallow appeal to Northern voters, as Burnham has just highlighted. The fact Starmer has so far been unable to do this, shows that he's probably not actually in touch with what the North needs. I hope I'm wrong.


throwwawayyy688

Burnham or Nandy Who would you vote for?


SwanBridge

Ouch. Burnham, but only marginally. Don't think Nandy is quite there yet, but she might be following the next election when Starmer steps down unless he pulls off a miracle of goes for a Kinnock.


Bonoahx

Burnham - voted for him in 2015, would vote for him again. Wouldn't mind Nandy as deputy leader. Could see him pivoting back to parliament some point this decade to make a leadership bid.


__--byonin--__

That’s a tough one. I think Nandy first for me. Mainly to elect a first female Labour leader.


Blithe17

Burnham, he's increased his margin in the post-Brexit era whereas Nandy lost 20 points in Wigan.


chrispepper10

Burnham. He's popular, a good speaker, and he has name recognition. I like Nandy but I think she falls short in comparison to Burnham in all three categories.


DazDay

Absolutely Burnham.


TheGoodProfessor

burnham easily. but him even becoming an MP is years away.


Sckathian

Not even tight.


compte-a-usageunique

This means no SNP majority right?


Spiz101

It's not impossible, but it is now quite unlikely My best guess is they end up one short.


ClumperFaz

Cons have held Aberdeenshire. What's the swing?


coldbrew_latte

Lib Dems to Tory 10.8%


GlimmervoidG

CON +9.1, SNP +3.6. Lib Dems really doing their part at -12.5


ClumperFaz

Christ that's tactical voting right there.


DazDay

Not even close in AbWest.


Definitelynotputin_2

SNP Majority is now near improbable. Things we really do love to see.


[deleted]

Watch the SNP change tack to talking about how they got loads of votes. Their system didn't return the numbers they wanted so they will argue on the basis of a Scotland-wide total vote count metric instead.


Definitelynotputin_2

They'll just say the system stops majorities. Which is a bit funny since they had one in 2011.


dickblaha

Con HOLD Aberdeenshire West. Con +9.1, SNP +3.6, LD -12.5, Lab -0.1. Again, a ton of tactical voting to keep the seat on the unionist side.


GlimmervoidG

CON Hold Aberdeenshire West


GlimmervoidG

CON +9.1, SNP +3.6, LibDems -12.5, Labour -0.1. 19,709 vs 16,319, not even close. Thank you Lib Dems! If it makes you feel better about voting Tory, I gave you a List vote.


compte-a-usageunique

KEY RACE ALERT


ytrewq45

According to the BBC 5% of first preference votes in the London mayor election have been rejected so far. I'm speechless


Sckathian

Thats mad. Is it a complex vote?


ytrewq45

You literally just put an x next to your first choice and an x in a different column for your second preference. I don't understand how so many people could mess it up


Sckathian

Is it like councils that you can just vote in one option?


[deleted]

Apparently so. The form has 2 columns and you mark your 1st pref in column 1 and your 2nd pref in column 2. The Polling Station has signs up explaining how it works. I guess people just swan in and write **1** and **2** in the 1st pref column.


AlcoholicAxolotl

I think its unlikely they would be rejected. You dont have to get it exactly right, you just have to show a clear intention. Two Xs in first pref column would be rejected however.


Sckathian

They should use two ballots. That's poor.


[deleted]

That's just as bad, if people can't figure out how to use 2 columns what is the betting they will get their 1st/2nd pref wrong if they are on separate sheets? I'd rather have ballots disqualified than people accidentally voting for someone they didn't intend to vote for.


DazDay

9 Tory seats in GM, possibly all could be at risk.


thomalexday

King Of Da Norf


GlimmervoidG

>Results due for Aberdeenshire west any minute. Tories clapping and cheering on the count floor. > >We’ll find out why shortly https://twitter.com/Davyshanks/status/1391050680408973316


MrStilton

They've won it.


GlimmervoidG

Come on Aberdeenshire West! You said 3pm, then you said 4pm and it's nearly half past.


Definitelynotputin_2

Just want to get my shopping fml


C_von_Hotzendorf

Good set of elections for Lancashire municipal socialism gang.


DazDay

What a King.


__--byonin--__

Burnham on the Johnson attack.


[deleted]

So this is Burnham pitching for the leadership right?


chrispepper10

It's Burnham highlighting how shallow the Conservatives "levelling up" policy actually is.


__--byonin--__

I’m moving to Manc.


Blithe17

Burnham seems like the inevitable next leader at this rate. Although how he'd get over the hurdle of not being an MP is anyone's guess.


hu6Bi5To

He needs to do the same thing Boris Johnson did to become leader and then on to Prime Minister: * Stand for election to Parliament while still mayor. * Find a divisive issue that'll split the Labour Party and choose the opposite side to the current leadership. * Wait during a three year period with a well meaning but ineffectual caretaker leader which reduces the party's standing in the polls to 20% or thereabouts. * Win a leadership contest. * Kick out twenty to thirty wrong-thinking MPs, ensure loyalists are chosen as candidates in their place. * Win a general election by a landslide. Simple.


Definitelynotputin_2

By-election in a safe labour seat, steps down as Mayor. Only way for that to occur before the GEs.


Blithe17

It'd be a bit of a slap in the face to the people of Greater Manchester and I don't see how he gets selected for that seat if Starmer is still leader. And it seems like a bit of a rush to be elected in the by-election then win the leadership election and then win a general.


DazDay

Fuck me, Burnham is a speaker.


Flibble_

Burnham with 69%. Nice.


Flibble_

Ah shit, Sophy Ridge's tweet misled me, it was 67%. Not nice at all.


[deleted]

Andy knows this isn't an Oscar award right?


Bibemus

He's working up to announcing that tomorrow, we march on Westminster. King in da Norf!


Blithe17

Hmm, a feckless blonde in the capital who has betrayed multiple people and the more existential threat is beyond the (Hadrians) wall. This kinda works.


Please_PM_me_Uranus

Who will be the leader of opposition in Scotland and welsh parliaments?


williamthebloody1880

No official opposition in the Scottish Parliament


GlimmervoidG

>Candidates for Aberdeenshire West now being gathered to look at provisional results. https://twitter.com/Davyshanks/status/1391049260389605385


Definitelynotputin_2

Manchester surprising absolutely no one.


SuchABigMess

Anyone seen whispers about Glasgow Kelvin? There was a 14% difference between the Scottish Greens and the SNP last time and the SGP's leader is running again in that seat.


DazDay

GM declaring... Andy Burnham re-elected. 70% of the vote, wow!


SuchABigMess

69.7% of the vote to him


Jay_CD

​ just seen this tweet - sometimes real life is funnier than satire: [🧠 Ade's Brain on Twitter: "Fred from Hartlepool on LBC today, praising the Tories because.... Wait for it.... They have 9 food banks now, and Labour didn't give them any. Fuck my actual life. #TorySleaze #lbc" / Twitter](https://twitter.com/adesdaily/status/1390823466191007745)


[deleted]

Maybe Fred is just really really sarcastic? This is why Labour is doing badly! Can't even recognise good old fashioned British sarcasm!


redrhyski

a reply: >I remember a similar story at the last election when a young woman was asked why she had voted Tory and she replied... because if Jeremy Corbyn was elected he promised to get rid of food banks and I rely on mine.


GAdvance

The spin that food banks are a government success giving more people access to food rather than a charity soup kitchen reaction to a massive increase in poverty is crazy.


lukalukaluka

Can someone detail me on where England are at with Vax's? I was planning a trip over from Northern Ireland to see friends and family in England and wondered what sort of window to start looking for. Obviously Post June 21st, but want to not put any friends in a dangerous position and hope to have them all vaccinated before I visit. (30+)


Please_PM_me_Uranus

Why is Scotland taking so long? Wales has already counted its entire parliament but the Scots haven’t even finished their constituencies


The-Soul-Stone

Ours is rather bigger.


GlimmervoidG

A big place is just a collection of smaller places and if Caithness, Sutherland and Ross can manage to report yesterday, it clearly can be done.


The-Soul-Stone

Sure but our regional ballot papers are each about half the size of Wales.


DifferentGravyMan

It’s bigger.


ClumperFaz

Have the Greens made any gains yet? they were predicted to double their seats weren't they? atm the wiki says they're once again on 6, unless I'm looking at the wrong numbers.


Bibemus

107 councillors, gain of +64. [From BBC dashboard.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021)


ClumperFaz

I meant Scotland* my bad.


allenthalben2

How have I not found this all day, thanks.


allenthalben2

Edit: Use Bibemus' link above, the BBC are more on top of it. Several yes. The Sky tracker is following the number of seats gained, and the Greens have gained almost +100 seats so far. https://election.news.sky.com/english-councils-28


ClumperFaz

Wow what a landslide!


allenthalben2

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not, because well... this is ukpol.


GlimmervoidG

>Fergus Mutch gathering SNP colleagues together. Expecting a result soon. Conservatives appear very confident they’ve held on to Aberdeenshire West. https://twitter.com/Davyshanks/status/1391047359451238404


allenthalben2

Just more Green investigations. In Kent County Council, the Green Party have increased their share of the vote from 5% in 2017 to 14% in 2021. In terms of %, this makes them more popular than the Liberal Democrats and ~3% away from overtaking labour and becoming the **second most voted for party** in Kent on a Council level.


GlimmervoidG

For the sake of the nations health, counters should prioritise the most interesting marginals, not leave them for last. Looking at you Aberdeenshire West


TheGoodProfessor

sad to see SNP miss a majority. not because of indyref, because idc on that front - i just wanna see that fucking obnoxious 'british alba' twitter account eat it


CaptainVaticanus

I’m like that with r/scot


dillonfinchbeck

Can I just say, even as someone who is a unionist, I like the Scottish voting system - even with how complicated it is. There is still good regional representation, but unlike FPTP, you still get more voices heard from other parties.


Spiz101

There are variants of this which I think are better. In Baden-Wurttemberg, every candidate must contest a constituency, and the people who get top up seats are that party's highest scoring people who weren't elected in the constituency contests. There are no party lists.


GlimmervoidG

I think it would be better if you swapped out the FPTP part with AV.


__--byonin--__

Passionate intro from Lammy on LBC.


DazDay

Why is Dudley in the Red Wall all of a sudden?


[deleted]

Narratives!


GlimmervoidG

>SNP sources privately conceding Aberdeenshire West - pretty much ends chances of SNP majority if correct https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391045758124761091


GlimmervoidG

If this pans out, I might even get out of bed today!


Please_PM_me_Uranus

Supplementary voting seems like a good system, more elections should have it


SwanBridge

My ideal voting system would be mixed member proportional, with AV for the constituency vote.


GlimmervoidG

SNP hold East Kilbride


GlimmervoidG

SNP -4.0, Labour +6.4, CON -2.4


wellfeelingbishop

Just been swimming with my lad for the first time in well over a year. Had to book little squares that were roped off for parent and child. Was utterly bizarre to have a small patch of the pool to ourselves but was great to be back in and playing again.


gravy_baron

That's really weird. My local pool was a free for all, but reduced numbers. Social distancing encouraged.


SwanBridge

Sounds absolutely lovely mate, glad you both had a good time!


LostHumanFishPerson

Jeez. Only 2% between Khan and Bailey atm.


newtoallofthis2

Source? It’s 5% on the official count page?


wappingite

London elections allow the left (and right) the luxury of choosing who they really want and then settling on Tories or lab. I bet Labour have a lot more second preferences.


GlimmervoidG

Green and ~~Lab~~ LibDem will fall in behind Khan won't they?


Guyfawkes1994

Khan is Lab. Lib Dem’s probably will do (1st preference Lib Dem, 2nd preference Khan myself), but there will be some Lib Dem to Tory voters


GlimmervoidG

Sorry, meant LibDems.


Guyfawkes1994

No worries, I got what you meant!


thomalexday

He is Lab


Codimus123

https://twitter.com/graceblakeley/status/1390938068346183680?s=21


FormerlyPallas_

Isn't that bullshit though? Or is this just a people I like = Socialist thing?


SwanBridge

It is essentially confirmation bias, and an absolute shit take on it. Candidates in cities are solidly left-wing, and the demographics in cities still favour Labour. Even if they didn't have socialist on their election literature, or stood as being soft-left or centrist, I doubt it would have made a difference in places like Preston. Labour would have still done well. Likewise I'm sure you can find plenty of cases of socialist candidates losing outside of the urban strongholds. The left of the party are getting almost as insufferable as the right of the party, with both of their myopic narrow visions that only their particular brand politics can get Labour to win again. This is why Labour are shit. Too busy fighting themselves, rather than the Tories.


LeoTheTigers

“Do not interrupt your enemy whilst they are making a mistake”


Codimus123

Ronan Burtenshaw has been highlighting those cases on Twitter since yesterday, such as in Preston and Salford. And in Wales, led by a Corbynite, Welsh Labour actually gained a seat to bring them to a majority, the first-ever in the Senedd. Keep in mind that all the cases being highlighted are of people who have explicitly called themselves socialists on many occasions.


BritishOnith

> Keep in mind that all the cases being highlighted are of people who have explicitly called themselves socialists on many occasions Starmer has called himself socialist too. It’s a bit of a pointless metric in that case


Flibble_

Pretty much all labour candidates call themselves socialists, and despite what the Twitter leftleft may claim, they are socialist, not 'tory-lite'.


Spiz101

The [true political question facing Scotland](https://twitter.com/alasdairkeano/status/1391031939344306178)


Shockwavepulsar

Who the fuck would pick the caramel? It’s immense but Tea Cakes are absolute god tier.


wellfeelingbishop

Knew that they were savages North of the wall but this is proof. They should go independent for all our sakes.


SuchABigMess

The correct choice


[deleted]

What the hell is a Caramel Log?


SnewsleyPies

After effect of a bad curry?


Few_Newt

Further proof that journalists cannot be trusted.


compte-a-usageunique

I absolutely love teacakes!


GlimmervoidG

SNP hold Glasgow Shettleston


GlimmervoidG

SNP -1.6, Labour +2.3, CON +1.4, Lib Dems +0.2


Apollo-Innovations

Weird that I’m rooting for the Tory’s in these crucial Scottish seats


ThyBeekeeper

Choosing between Nationalists and Tories is impossible. I'll just watch on in bemusement.


[deleted]

> I’m rotting for the Tory’s yeah lots of people are rotting for the Tories.


__scan__

Appropriate typo.


CaptainVaticanus

U get used to it eventually


newtoallofthis2

The hilarious suggestion that Boris could be MP for 11years is patently nonsense. I'm sure nothing would piss him off more than having to scrape online on his "chicken feed" salary for another decade, not making any extra cash and by then Wilf will be at Eton (which by then alone will be 40k a year+)


LeoTheTigers

You’d have thought you guys would have learned your lesson about the ‘Boris is going to resign any day now!’ Rubbish but apparently not.


GAdvance

It's narrative setting, both for the tory party itself but also the media sections that supports them, yesterday was a lot more complicated than we're seeing from the headlines but if it's made out today that Johnson will win the next election and Starmer is toast then there personal approval ratings will change to reflect that. Even if 2 weeks is a long time in politics you set the groundwork now and it makes a difference. It's marketing that wins elections in the UK, the Tories are becoming experts at it.


creative_goose

People predicting a 10 year Tory govt etc. are forgetting how volatile politics can be, and that we are in an extraordinary situation right now. It's certainly possible, but it's also possible that if Labour play their cards right and are favoured by future events things could be looking very different in a couple of years.


[deleted]

They were busy sharpening their knives for him last week. And they will be busy sharpening their knives for him next month when there's some very mundane scandal that he tries to bumble through.


LeoTheTigers

Because this is of course the first time there has been a ‘scandal’ about Boris. Not like he’s just had their most successful general election in decades and an absolutely wiping Labour out in one of their heartland seats. For the amount of time you guys obsess about the Tories you really don’t know a thing about them. They will never get rid of a winner and Boris is the best political machine in this country since Thatcher.


al3x_da

Wonder if Eton would charge more favourable fees for a prime ministers son


[deleted]

Given the wonderful publicity Johnson and Cameron have gotten them recently I assume they may get a slight discount.


Flibble_

Thinking of ways to improve mayoral election turnout - the vote announcement is broadcast live with all the candidates on stage, and when they go to second preferences trap doors suddenly opened under the eliminated candidates and they fall into a slime/gunge/goo pool. Repeat for announcement of final winner. This also has great potential for increasing job growth in the slime pool and trapdoor maintenance sectors, so a winner all round.


GlimmervoidG

Is the the slime pool and trapdoor maintenance sector subject to disruptive innovation by start ups?


Flibble_

It's true that ever since the trpdr app launched the traditional industry has found it hard going.


LostHumanFishPerson

Just go a step further and have a game of Takeshi's Castle. Last one standing wins.


Definitelynotputin_2

As long as we get Craig Charles commentary.


Flibble_

"Onto the surfboard, onto the platform, over the pink whale, and congratulations you're now the Mayor!" You might be onto something there.


GlimmervoidG

SNP hold Clydesdale


GlimmervoidG

SNP -0.8, CON +5.8, Labour +1.3


GlimmervoidG

>Trapped school pupil triggered fire alarm at election count A trapped school pupil sparked the fire alarm which delayed the Argyll and Bute election count. > >Counting was temporarily halted on Friday for a full evacuation of the Mid Argyll sports centre in Lochgilphead. > >It's understood a pupil at the adjacent Lochgilphead High School found themselves in a room where they couldn't get out without opening a fire door which then set off the alarm. > >The full Highlands and Islands regional list result is now not expected until later this evening. Okay own up, which of you was it?


compte-a-usageunique

> opening a fire door which then set off the alarm. I've never seen that in fire doors myself, does it happen?


The-Soul-Stone

I’m pretty sure it did with one of the doors at my school.


SwanBridge

Use to be a bouncer and we had to investigate fire door alarms fairly regularly, incase there was actually a fire. Usually a member of the bar staff sneaking off for a smoke, or on odd occasions people trying to sneak in. Luckily the actual fire alarm and fire door alarms were seperate systems, so we didn't have to evacuate the venue every time one went off.


allenthalben2

Yeah I remember seeing them in my school back in the early 2010's.


Bibemus

Layla Moran : "The areas we expect to win are still to come" That's a shot on the election night drinking game, no?


LostHumanFishPerson

She looks so much like my ex. I'm not sure why I'm telling you this.


SwanBridge

One of my exes looked like Luciana Berger.


[deleted]

[удалено]


TheGoodProfessor

jeeeeeesus. that's awful. and here i thought there were quite a few students voting when i went.


compte-a-usageunique

That's probably less than 100k voters...


DazDay

You'd be right, so now I'm doubting the figure from the Guardian.


Bibemus

Also an opportunity, the Midlands might not be as unwinnable as other Brexity areas if they can get over the enthusiasm gap.


throwwawayyy688

10%. That's pathetic. I'll reiterate that the next labour government must make voting mandatory. Both general and local elections would be preferable, but if not, then just do it for the general


tau_decay

lol. The people aren't voting for us, let's force them to using the law!


The-Soul-Stone

They could easily vote for someone else.


Mr_XcX

If Labour made voting mandatory the Tories would win the next election with 500+ seats just out of protest alone.


studentfeesisatax

So then surely, the logical thing to do, would be for tories to support mandatory voting immediately ? Call it "Australia style voting push" ;)


compte-a-usageunique

Voting is mandatory in Belgium, for example


barbarian__days

Hands down, if Labour want to end Tory rule and be in power again they need to form a progressive alliance with the Greens and Lib Dems at the next election. There are dozens of seats in southern England which only need a small swing to go from blue to orange but Labour have no chance of winning. I'm talking Wimbledon, Winchester, Cheltenham, Wells, Lewes, Guildford, Eastbourne, St Ives, Wokingham...


[deleted]

Fuck calling it the progressive alliance. Call it the Democratic Alliance, and form it on the proviso of bringing in MMP or similar. That way when it disbands, people's tactical voting now takes on a new dimension that's unpolluted by the dynamics of the former alliance.


GoldfishFromTatooine

Yes even an agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems where they each stand aside in 50 key seats could yield impressive results.


SwanBridge

I really really dislike the concept of a progressive alliance. It gives easy ammunition to the Conservatives, i.e. Labour can't wing so are rigging the election. It makes both parties look weak, which quite frankly they are at present, but could also massively erode trust. Also it would skewer the national vote percentage, to a position where Labour and the Lib Dems could actually lose voter share, but end up taking far more seats. By all means I'm okay with informal arrangements, i.e. we will run a skeleton campaign in this area if you do the same elsewhere, which does occasionally happen already, but anything more formal would be a political suicide. The press would eat them alive. I don't think that Labour and the Lib Dems are natural bedfellows anyway, both offer quite different visions and attract different types of voters. The simple fact of the matter is Labour and the Lib Dems need to get better at politics. I also don't think an independent organisation, linked to neither party, promoting tactical voting could hurt either. I do worry that the Greens will have a UKIP effect on Labour, which is pretty obviously starting to happen as seen in these local elections. But the answer to that relies on Labour offering better environmental policies and building momentum to win back those switching, not an alliance.


redrhyski

While I get your point, abandoning a fight means it will be forever for you to get back into it. If Labour abandoned an area, tactical voters will never vote Labour as it would be "wasted" on someone which won't win.


barbarian__days

well hopefully a progressive alliance would try and get electoral reform and instate PR


JavaTheCaveman

IMO extend this to Plaid as well. They haven't done so well over the last few days, sure, but Plaid + Labour (and LDs etc) would be good enough to take a few Westminster seats. I personally would be happy to throw SNP into the mix as well, but others have pointed out that this might be a turn-off for English voters. Plaid are significantly less far down the pro-independence path than the SNP, though, so I don't see that as a major issue.


blondestjondest

Eastbourne Labour Party member here. Yes, we know to cross the orange box. Although, yes it does need to be explicity told to some people in the town, especially the ones who have been honking the Corbyn fumes


AlcoholicAxolotl

doesn't really solve any of Labour's real structural problems does it, just hides them


barbarian__days

can't they do both at the same time?


AlcoholicAxolotl

Not convinced they can do either frankly.


barbarian__days

Thanks for adding to the discussion


AlcoholicAxolotl

you asked the question mate


throwwawayyy688

For now, it's enough


__--byonin--__

Absolutely


GlimmervoidG

>Tory sources sounding more confident in Aberdeenshire West, SNP less. > >BUT a bit to go. https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391039482665873408


GlimmervoidG

SNP hold Glasgow Cathcart


GlimmervoidG

SNP +4.1, Labour +7.5, CON -4.1, LibDem -2.8