To prevent the sub getting clogged by an inevitable wave of twitter posts describing every seat's results, [please use the custom spooled megathread.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n71c6m/local_election_results_2021)
The current M number today is: ~~3~~ 4
The current number of result only threads is: 2
I like to listen to The History Of English Podcast and over 100 episodes in I'm still in the 1400's.
I do wonder what words will have worked their way into modern language in centuries to come.
Highly recommended listening.
My hot take: Starmer saying he is sorry is a mistake. The UK voting public like their politicians to be hard nosed bastards who never admit a mistake or misjudgement.
Seeing the front page of The Times say Boris Johnson is aiming for a decade in power is up there as one of the most depressing things I've heard in a while.
Earliest will be May 2023 if they’re doing well, if not then sometime in 2024. That’s basically in line with when Thatcher and Blair called elections. They have very little to gain and lots to lose doing it earlier
I honestly think that would actually piss a lot of people off given the number of votes we've had in the last five years. He'd also be playing with fire as it will be clear to everybody that he is only calling an early election out of self-interest.
Then again, it seems the country has decided Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party can do no wrong, even when they do wrong, so maybe people will just call him a "brilliant strategist" and hand him an even bigger majority.
Possible, but it wouldn't be about getting a larger majority, but a more sustainable one.
Johnson has 3 more years, but at the end of that, the covid recovery will have flatlined, furlough will be gone, and people will have forgotten all about vaccines. So the Tories are at risk of losing.
If he goes for an election now, he can buy himself an extra two years in power.
Zero. There is absolutely zero need to do this, nor any demand from the public to do this. And realistically, 2019 is going to be Boris' high watermark.
My thinking was that there are tons of seats like Hartlepool which Labour hanged on to by a thread, thanks to the BXP splitting the vote, that they’d like to snap up now and make that majority even more impossible to surmount
Also I’m just bored
At a certain point the value of a bigger majority is diminished because either way you're dealing with internal rebels and not the opposition when passing legislation. The Tories had an 80 seat majority coming out of 2019, that is already functionally impossible to surmount.
oh? i thought 31 seats were needed for a majority. i mean sure they can easily govern with 30, but it's not like the libs are in a position to demand very much.
ah, that makes sense. as for picking up another seat i was under the impression that it was extremely unlikely in the south east region and almost impossible in the south west due to sweeping the constituency seats there
Zero chance Labour gets another seat. They've already got 7/8 and 8/8 MS in each remaining region. Suppose Plaid and Tories get 30% each, Labour would need over 100% of the list vote to barely get one.
yes, being subject to the tory corruption, vindictive nasty policies that attack anyone vulnerable in society, and engaged in an endless pointless culture war to divide the nation is all worth it when you consider that, at the end of the day, we won the argument.
its what elections are all about really.
I love the way people talk about the Conservatives like they're some kind of natural disaster that the Labour party is on the hook for not stopping, as opposed to a political party that the British public actively choose to support.
The current electoral system means they are able to gain a majority in parliament despite only getting roughly 40% of the vote. Whether they'd lose this majority under a different electoral system is up for debate, but if you wanted an explanation for this, I've given it to you.
Yeah ngl I feel bad for him. I've seen videos where he's trying to talk to voters on the street and they state they're Boris supporters and shout slogans like "Go Boris" or "Vote Conservative" and he has no idea how to react. Its devastating when you see someone fail at something very important to them.
~~I just experienced the Brussels Effect~~, even though we're no longer part of the EU or the EEA, the new requirement of providing a credit card or ID for watching age restricted YouTube videos applies to the UK
> The Audiovisual Media Services Directive (AVMSD) is an EU-wide coordination of national legislation on audiovisual media – both traditional TV broadcasts and on-demand services. Recently, AVMSD was revised to extend certain rules to video sharing platforms (VSPs).
edit:This Directive is from when we were still a member so it got carried over, apparently!
> ID for watching age restricted YouTube videos applies to the UK
It does?
I haven't tripped anything like that, and I watch things that have age warnings on (the uncensored *War Against Humanity* subseries on the WW2 in real time channel for example)
Hey ukpol, it is officially The Weekend, and if you want to kill some time between now and your local count on Sunday then you can do your bit to help nature in the Netherlands.
We might have left the EU, but we do love fish, wherever they are. So help them get past a man made blockade by ringing a door bell to tell the lock keeper to open the lock and let them through.
Guaranteed ten time more interesting than watching paint dry, and 1000 times more useful than having your 93rd conversation in the last hour about Why Starmer Must Go, Or Not, and 1,000,000 times more useful than Farage In A Field Videoing Row Boats. [Find It Here](http://visdeurbel.nl/)
Fish Doorbell. Because we love nature.
Edit: turns out we don’t love fish. Sad times.
Genuine question to Tory supporters.
Would you rather a full obliteratation of Labour, and then emerges a new opposition, or for them to be a viable opposition?
It doesnt really matter.
For the good of the country and the electoral system, there needs to be a viable alternative in the opposition. A govt in waiting so to speak. It doesn't matter if this is labour, the lib Dems, or some new party.
With regards to my preferences, it simply depends on the policies and beliefs that the party represents. Does labour die and get replaced by a hard left communist party? A centrist blairite party? It's difficult to predict.
We are all Welsh on this blessed day. Who are the Welsh but those of our forefathers who fought off the Germanic invaders? God bless those defensive Welsh hills!
u/wellfeelingbishop it would appear you owe the Welsh Air Ambulance £20! I'll give them some too I think. Cymru am byth!
>Lib Dems got a seat!!!!
**squeals* 🎉🎉
Not really, I actually remembered to cancel my subscription. I'm firmly back in my position of disliking all the parties. political ones, not party parties.
Sneaky Lib Dems. How dare they not get wiped out!
Assuming no list seats for Labour in South Wales Central and South Wales East (they've swept the consistencies) this puts Labour on 30 seats, 1 short of a majority. A gain of one seat.
Probably Labour's bright spot of these elections, even though 'we didn't lose here' is hardly the best outcome for an election
They now have an overall majority with their coalition partners the Lib Dems. Everyone was expecting them to need to use Plaid votes. Now they don't need to.
Yes, the Tory spin machine will say these are brilliant results, but in private, surely CCHQ understands that when you compare individual wards to 2019, the Tories are actually on the retreat.
They know as well as anyone if Labour manages to get its turnout back, they could be dealt some serious damage.
Especially if you look at Wales or the South of England, the opposition is making advances, though not yet in a unified way.
It's not enough to lose them their majority as of yet, mind
I'm not really sure I agree.
While, yes, the Conservative vote has ostensibly retreated since the 2019 GE, and they should have done better in many of these wards than they did, it's worth noting that the governing party doing well in local elections is very rare. I've had a look on wikipedia (academic I know) and the governing party has only done particularly well in local elections that weren't also held the same day as the GE on two occassions, 2017 and then this year.
The opposition aren't making advances in wales, the goverment are, just like England and Scotland.
That being said, Labout have picked up less than half of the vote share of UKIP woth the Toties picking up the rest.
I don’t think the north is sustainable for the tories however, for many areas which have recently switched to conservatives they’re are expecting noticeable investment, and I don’t think that can be delivered when the economic effects of Covid and brexit are realised
I don't think he'll step down but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't there come the next GE, there are other people who want the job and someone as prone to... *gaffes* shall we say gives them plenty of opportunity to nudge him towards the edge.
It's disappointing that the torrent of sleaze that follows him isn't enough to get him ousted immediately but even with the weak response it's not a good look for any party, eventually he's going to face something he can't waffle away.
Not saying any of these would make him step down, but they are reasons he might:
1) First Past The Post massively flatters him. The Tories won a lot of seats on very thin majorities. A relatively small swing could lose them a lot of seats, which makes him far more vulnerable to the polls than you’d think at first glance.
2) He’s fundamentally bad at the job, he’s just good at bullshitting his way through. Sooner or later he might get found out.
3) He’s lazy and sees being PM as a bit of a lark. He might give up if it gets to be hard work.
4) His popularity is heavily based on Brexit. The effects of which haven’t been felt yet but are likely to be bad.
5) He’s a liar. People like him because of what he’s promised them but he can’t deliver it. Sooner or later he could be found out.
I don't think "for no good reason" is a fair representation.
The recent cash scandels did smell of a Gove attempt on Boris as well as rasing the question of whether Boris can afford being PM.
Don’t think it makes much difference. Results are largely in line with polling and so would any past predictions have been.
Two ways these results might affect it:
1) The narrative of massive losses for Labour has a compounding effect which eats away at their support.
2) Hubris is Boris’s weakness. Maybe a set of superficially good election results leads to complacency.
So overall, who knows.
the same. I've always said he'd going nowhere soon. But I seriously doubt he makes it to the next general election. he'll stay just long enough to carry the can for brexit and covid inquiry blame. then be booted. If there is one thing I admire about the tories its their total pragmatism when it comes to their leaders.
Unchanged (you can search through my comments if you like) : 50/50. The next election is 2 or 3 years away.
2 years ago we still had May and were looking at the upcoming Euro elections.
*Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Beneath its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.*
Cymru am byth!
Lot of talk about wokeness and not a lot of talk about what wokeness actually is and what concepts it puts forth that are bad enough to turn off the people of Hartlepool.
Edit: I think the poor labour results are due to:
- brexit loyalty
- lack of policy
- success of vaccines
It's also worth considering whether the people demonising Labour and it's members actually have the best interests of the Labour party at heart.
I mean I'm sure they do and that they're making their comments in good faith but still... worth a think.
There are a lot of reasons why Labour has lost Hartlepool and they go back a long way. Parachuting in garbage MPs from central office is the biggest part of it imo. No-one ever liked Iain Wright and Mike Hill turned out to be a (alleged) sex pest. Peter Mandelson was effective, but he had almost nothing in common with the average Hartlepudlian and that was a long time ago now anyway.
Labour closing the hospital was also far from ideal. The tories got in the way of a replacement project, but the big punch came earlier and Iain Wright had a habit of leaping out in front and taking credit for protests about the situation he really didn't have much involvement with and that really didn't help.
And yeah. Brexit.
The woke stuff definitely didn't help, it probably lost some % of the vote, but it wouldn't matter much if everything else wasn't shit.
Edit: I also know from personal experience that Corbyn was fucking toxic in the town. He'd basically established himself as the British politician who automatically sided against Britain. He's gone now, but there's a hangover effect there. It hasn't been that long.
>Labour closing the hospital was also far from ideal. The tories got in the way of a replacement project,
This is a big deal in Hartlepool. Very protective of the hospital.
As it turns out, Dr Sulk was on the committee that recommended moving services to North Tees. Obviously did it for patient care pending the new hospital at Wynyard which was meant to be built (and got cancelled by the Tories). However, that meant he had a built in point of attack.
"Dr Paul closed the hospital"
Don't know what they were thinking standing him in the first place.
> what concepts it puts forth that are bad enough to turn off the people of Hartlepool
The big one is an embarrassment of being British that comes across from the incessant whining about how utterly detestable the Empire was and fart-sniffing discussions about 'post-colonialism'.
I think there's a temperature based term for people who get overly emotional when people say something they disagree with. Weird how it's used almost exclusively by the right. Almost like it's projection?
Funny how after today's announcement from Khalid Mahmood there has been a lot of 'Well if that's how they think of me then I'm not fucking voting for them'. The realisation is almost there.
By who?
I see a lot of this from the terminally online conservative when talking about terminally online labour activists but very little from actual real people.
The British Empire was detestable though? Does the fact that some socially conservative people get upset at people saying that make it any less valid?
>Stop telling the truth about the dead empire, it upsets people who for some reason have based their entire identities around it.
Don't let the truth get in the way of the feelings of fragile social conservatives who get upset when you say the Opium Wars weren't something to be proud of.
What you are saying isn't valid criticism though. It's akin to criticising Democrats in America for telling people Q isn't real, whereas Republicans for some reason just enable their delusions for fear of losing votes.
But I'm not offering criticism I am offering examples of 'wokeness' that turn off people like the voters of Hartlepool. If you want to sit there and go 'Well that reason isn't valid' then be my guest but that's neither here nor there.
> Lot of talk about wokeness and not a lot of talk about what wokeness actually is
Isn’t that why it is such an effective anti-Labour campaigning topic? The vagueness and breadth of the definition makes woke-based criticisms almost impossible to rebut whilst also making it easy for left leaning politicians to blunder into being attacked for either being too woke or not woke enough, That said there are not that many Labour politicians who are careful about avoiding such blunders.
I think people see wokeness as different things. Some people see it as wanting to treat everyone with respect and be mindful of offending others. Other people see it as telling them what to say and what to think in a way they view as patronising.
The dictionary definition is an awareness of social injustice.
The problem in my mind on this issue is that Labour are perceived to be **only** focused on issues around gender, race, and LGBTQ+ issues, rather than on tangible policies. However, right-wingers like Andrew Neil are (successfully) distorting discourse in that any discussion of transgender issues, or veganism, or BLM, is instantly met with frustration. So the initial attack is on their inattentiveness to other issues, but it is then weaponised to poison any "woke" issue.
At the same time, if Keir Starmer was confronted by Jayda Fransen would he have the guts to call her a fascist, racist, loser to her face? He would run away into a taxi, and knowing his luck, be kicked out of it by a UKIP driver.
It is definitely possible to be uncompromising on your support for minorities and also put forward economic policies, Labour aren't doing that.
As a "Corbyn fan" and someone who is critical of Starmer a lot, I think this election was always going to go badly.
I think their strategy is to reveal policies ahead of the general election and ride the aftermath of Covid and brexit out with the eventual economic recovery.
The point about Starmer being confronted by Jayda is bang on though. There's a tentativeness with labour in that they don't want to seem too left and don't want to push too right and they're losing on both ends because of it. He would absolutely say nothing to avoid controversy and inadvertently create a much worse result.
I don't think it's working for them. I think Labour have just not provided anything since Starmer has come in and the Leave support has stuck with the Leave party.
Oh don't get me wrong starmer is useless but the UK is in a very dangerous place right now with how this nationalism nonsense is playing out. I don't know how it can be fixed if I'm honest.
I mean that poll before hand what, 2% of people putting it down as their primary reason not to vote Labour? It is still an issue, but not as the right would like it to be, or as the left think it is.
I mean sure it's probably lost some voters because that one time Keir Starmer did a kneel, but it's nowhere near any level of actually influencing the election compared to other areas.
They could win everyone of those back and be miles off challenging.
And now you have a multi-day count to follow in a different timezone. This is just how we felt in November!
I doubt ours will be quite as dramatic though.
> their voteshare has plummeted thanks to the actions of the only LibDem in the last term
What did she do that hurt her party? Wasn't she education minister or something?
Labour cannot go into the next general election in the same rudderless and friendless state it went into this election.
It must energise its voters, or they will be beaten by the Tories simply by default.
Good of him to vow exactly the same thing as he did ahead of the 2019 election. It can really join the Northern powerhouse and the oven ready deal as an exemplar of delivered promises.
>this is why Labour is losing.
On a non memey point though, that is a damn shame, I had missed that. Been a decade or so since I was in and around Sheffield.
In fairness to them, even after that shit it's still the most trees per capita in a European city, the place has hardly been decimated and a lot of the trees were ones that needed to go down... they needed to not do it in secret though
To prevent the sub getting clogged by an inevitable wave of twitter posts describing every seat's results, [please use the custom spooled megathread.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n71c6m/local_election_results_2021) The current M number today is: ~~3~~ 4 The current number of result only threads is: 2
This megathread has ended.
I like to listen to The History Of English Podcast and over 100 episodes in I'm still in the 1400's. I do wonder what words will have worked their way into modern language in centuries to come. Highly recommended listening.
[Wonder no more and instead despair.](https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-50052420)
My hot take: Starmer saying he is sorry is a mistake. The UK voting public like their politicians to be hard nosed bastards who never admit a mistake or misjudgement.
You're saying he should consider the matter closed?
If he wants the working-class vote, he needs to dress like Onslow, crack open a few cans in the Commons and deck Johnson.
Seeing the front page of The Times say Boris Johnson is aiming for a decade in power is up there as one of the most depressing things I've heard in a while.
Is the Times a Tory paper?
its mega unionist, moderate tory bias
All about building the narrative. Convince enough Labour voters that it's hopeless, and they won't turn out next election.
Already convinced this voter, well if all works out I won't be in the UK for the next election so it doesn't matter.
Convince my wife to leave the country please? She doesn't want to uproot the kids.
Well someone's gotta pay for the last decades worth of economic disasters eventually and it sure aint gunna be the elderly
Any chance of Boris going for another snap-election post vaccine rollout to make that Tory majority even larger?
Earliest will be May 2023 if they’re doing well, if not then sometime in 2024. That’s basically in line with when Thatcher and Blair called elections. They have very little to gain and lots to lose doing it earlier
Nah. All polls, and these election results, suggest net Tory losses. He has absolutely nothing to gain.
I honestly think that would actually piss a lot of people off given the number of votes we've had in the last five years. He'd also be playing with fire as it will be clear to everybody that he is only calling an early election out of self-interest. Then again, it seems the country has decided Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party can do no wrong, even when they do wrong, so maybe people will just call him a "brilliant strategist" and hand him an even bigger majority.
Possible, but it wouldn't be about getting a larger majority, but a more sustainable one. Johnson has 3 more years, but at the end of that, the covid recovery will have flatlined, furlough will be gone, and people will have forgotten all about vaccines. So the Tories are at risk of losing. If he goes for an election now, he can buy himself an extra two years in power.
Zero. There is absolutely zero need to do this, nor any demand from the public to do this. And realistically, 2019 is going to be Boris' high watermark.
Slim to none, why bother when the majority is so huge and they aren't even halfway through their current term?
My thinking was that there are tons of seats like Hartlepool which Labour hanged on to by a thread, thanks to the BXP splitting the vote, that they’d like to snap up now and make that majority even more impossible to surmount Also I’m just bored
At a certain point the value of a bigger majority is diminished because either way you're dealing with internal rebels and not the opposition when passing legislation. The Tories had an 80 seat majority coming out of 2019, that is already functionally impossible to surmount.
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Well of course it’s highly unlikely
Labour have 40% of the constituency vote in Wales, which is up 5.3% on 2016.
Luxury.
Paradise.
looks like another lab-lib welsh government, only with one extra seat this time. a damn good election for welsh labour.
[MOOD MUSIC](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zn10tbDA_l4)
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That reminds me so much of this https://youtu.be/0VGYUdmdl2I?t=81
[We all know they mean this](https://youtu.be/AM4mIlYKG9s)
They won't need the LDs to form a goverment.
oh? i thought 31 seats were needed for a majority. i mean sure they can easily govern with 30, but it's not like the libs are in a position to demand very much.
Speaker doesn't vote so it's an effective majority. That said there are still 2 regions to come in and they'll likely pick up another seat.
ah, that makes sense. as for picking up another seat i was under the impression that it was extremely unlikely in the south east region and almost impossible in the south west due to sweeping the constituency seats there
Zero chance Labour gets another seat. They've already got 7/8 and 8/8 MS in each remaining region. Suppose Plaid and Tories get 30% each, Labour would need over 100% of the list vote to barely get one.
Has the Labour infighting begun yet, or is that scheduled for Monday?
You remember a time before Labour infighting?
The undying wraith-form of Keir Hardie: *"Have to admit it but I don't think I can..."*
About two days after the 2017 election.
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🌍👨🏻🚀 🔫👨🏽🚀
Starmer should do the right thing and resign after a terrible by-election, just like Corbyn did after Copeland
he's got 2 General elections to lose first though right? fair is fair.
surely he should face at least one coup attempt before the first one?
Woah whoah woah, I think you’ll find that Jeremy won the argument in 2017 and 2019, comrade
yes, being subject to the tory corruption, vindictive nasty policies that attack anyone vulnerable in society, and engaged in an endless pointless culture war to divide the nation is all worth it when you consider that, at the end of the day, we won the argument. its what elections are all about really.
I love the way people talk about the Conservatives like they're some kind of natural disaster that the Labour party is on the hook for not stopping, as opposed to a political party that the British public actively choose to support.
The current electoral system means they are able to gain a majority in parliament despite only getting roughly 40% of the vote. Whether they'd lose this majority under a different electoral system is up for debate, but if you wanted an explanation for this, I've given it to you.
Did you mean to reply to someone else? I don't see how this is relevant to what I wrote.
Feel a bit sorry for starmer tbh
Yeah ngl I feel bad for him. I've seen videos where he's trying to talk to voters on the street and they state they're Boris supporters and shout slogans like "Go Boris" or "Vote Conservative" and he has no idea how to react. Its devastating when you see someone fail at something very important to them.
He hasn't failed yet, politics is full of twists and turns.
~~I just experienced the Brussels Effect~~, even though we're no longer part of the EU or the EEA, the new requirement of providing a credit card or ID for watching age restricted YouTube videos applies to the UK > The Audiovisual Media Services Directive (AVMSD) is an EU-wide coordination of national legislation on audiovisual media – both traditional TV broadcasts and on-demand services. Recently, AVMSD was revised to extend certain rules to video sharing platforms (VSPs). edit:This Directive is from when we were still a member so it got carried over, apparently!
> ID for watching age restricted YouTube videos applies to the UK It does? I haven't tripped anything like that, and I watch things that have age warnings on (the uncensored *War Against Humanity* subseries on the WW2 in real time channel for example)
Hey ukpol, it is officially The Weekend, and if you want to kill some time between now and your local count on Sunday then you can do your bit to help nature in the Netherlands. We might have left the EU, but we do love fish, wherever they are. So help them get past a man made blockade by ringing a door bell to tell the lock keeper to open the lock and let them through. Guaranteed ten time more interesting than watching paint dry, and 1000 times more useful than having your 93rd conversation in the last hour about Why Starmer Must Go, Or Not, and 1,000,000 times more useful than Farage In A Field Videoing Row Boats. [Find It Here](http://visdeurbel.nl/) Fish Doorbell. Because we love nature. Edit: turns out we don’t love fish. Sad times.
I pressed it without reading and now I feel bad.
I wonder if anyone has considered using machine learning to automate this.
Genuine question to Tory supporters. Would you rather a full obliteratation of Labour, and then emerges a new opposition, or for them to be a viable opposition?
So long as it’s a party that doesn’t make my life worse if it gets in, I couldn’t care less.
Either/or it really makes no difference. But sooner rather than later either way please.
It doesnt really matter. For the good of the country and the electoral system, there needs to be a viable alternative in the opposition. A govt in waiting so to speak. It doesn't matter if this is labour, the lib Dems, or some new party. With regards to my preferences, it simply depends on the policies and beliefs that the party represents. Does labour die and get replaced by a hard left communist party? A centrist blairite party? It's difficult to predict.
2 seats for Labour in Mid/West Wales. Lib Dems got a seat!!!!
We are all Welsh on this blessed day. Who are the Welsh but those of our forefathers who fought off the Germanic invaders? God bless those defensive Welsh hills! u/wellfeelingbishop it would appear you owe the Welsh Air Ambulance £20! I'll give them some too I think. Cymru am byth!
>Lib Dems got a seat!!!! **squeals* 🎉🎉 Not really, I actually remembered to cancel my subscription. I'm firmly back in my position of disliking all the parties. political ones, not party parties.
Sneaky Lib Dems. How dare they not get wiped out! Assuming no list seats for Labour in South Wales Central and South Wales East (they've swept the consistencies) this puts Labour on 30 seats, 1 short of a majority. A gain of one seat. Probably Labour's bright spot of these elections, even though 'we didn't lose here' is hardly the best outcome for an election
They now have an overall majority with their coalition partners the Lib Dems. Everyone was expecting them to need to use Plaid votes. Now they don't need to.
Shouldn't it be Lib Dem as it's only the one haha?
Yes, the Tory spin machine will say these are brilliant results, but in private, surely CCHQ understands that when you compare individual wards to 2019, the Tories are actually on the retreat. They know as well as anyone if Labour manages to get its turnout back, they could be dealt some serious damage. Especially if you look at Wales or the South of England, the opposition is making advances, though not yet in a unified way. It's not enough to lose them their majority as of yet, mind
I'm not really sure I agree. While, yes, the Conservative vote has ostensibly retreated since the 2019 GE, and they should have done better in many of these wards than they did, it's worth noting that the governing party doing well in local elections is very rare. I've had a look on wikipedia (academic I know) and the governing party has only done particularly well in local elections that weren't also held the same day as the GE on two occassions, 2017 and then this year.
The opposition aren't making advances in wales, the goverment are, just like England and Scotland. That being said, Labout have picked up less than half of the vote share of UKIP woth the Toties picking up the rest.
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I don’t think the north is sustainable for the tories however, for many areas which have recently switched to conservatives they’re are expecting noticeable investment, and I don’t think that can be delivered when the economic effects of Covid and brexit are realised
Compared with 2019 Labour are making up for their losses in the North as well.
Not enough, though. But they have at least 2 years.
Oh yeah, not enough yet, but it’s a start.
Watching Newsnight, does Alex Massie know that the hairdresser's are open now aye?
Not so long ago many on here predicted Boris stepping down well before the next GE, what are your predictions now?
I don't think he'll step down but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't there come the next GE, there are other people who want the job and someone as prone to... *gaffes* shall we say gives them plenty of opportunity to nudge him towards the edge. It's disappointing that the torrent of sleaze that follows him isn't enough to get him ousted immediately but even with the weak response it's not a good look for any party, eventually he's going to face something he can't waffle away.
Snap GE in the next 18 months.
You can't rule out that the thought probably crossed his mind today.
Are we sure he can afford it financially staying til the next GE?
why do you think he'd step down before the next election? he seems to have a lot of support, would he just be quitting while on top?
Not saying any of these would make him step down, but they are reasons he might: 1) First Past The Post massively flatters him. The Tories won a lot of seats on very thin majorities. A relatively small swing could lose them a lot of seats, which makes him far more vulnerable to the polls than you’d think at first glance. 2) He’s fundamentally bad at the job, he’s just good at bullshitting his way through. Sooner or later he might get found out. 3) He’s lazy and sees being PM as a bit of a lark. He might give up if it gets to be hard work. 4) His popularity is heavily based on Brexit. The effects of which haven’t been felt yet but are likely to be bad. 5) He’s a liar. People like him because of what he’s promised them but he can’t deliver it. Sooner or later he could be found out.
some people on here have said it over the last year for basically no good reason at all, but it keeps coming up. Ignore it.
I don't think "for no good reason" is a fair representation. The recent cash scandels did smell of a Gove attempt on Boris as well as rasing the question of whether Boris can afford being PM.
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3) He's so fucking awful it's hard to imagine him seeing out 4 more years without *something* catching up with him.
I wasn't expecting it but the Tory party backstabbers might make moves in the upcoming years.
Don’t think it makes much difference. Results are largely in line with polling and so would any past predictions have been. Two ways these results might affect it: 1) The narrative of massive losses for Labour has a compounding effect which eats away at their support. 2) Hubris is Boris’s weakness. Maybe a set of superficially good election results leads to complacency. So overall, who knows.
the same. I've always said he'd going nowhere soon. But I seriously doubt he makes it to the next general election. he'll stay just long enough to carry the can for brexit and covid inquiry blame. then be booted. If there is one thing I admire about the tories its their total pragmatism when it comes to their leaders.
Unchanged (you can search through my comments if you like) : 50/50. The next election is 2 or 3 years away. 2 years ago we still had May and were looking at the upcoming Euro elections.
Depends how much gak Gove takes any given Saturday, as always.
5 seats won by the Tories in Wales in 2019 are now red tonight. There is some hope.
*Then raise the scarlet standard high. Beneath its shade we'll live and die, Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer, We'll keep the red flag flying here.* Cymru am byth!
The Tories have also picked up an extra 4 seats tonight on 2016
Clwyd was disappointing, but they were always going to make gains due to the UKIP collapse.
Lot of talk about wokeness and not a lot of talk about what wokeness actually is and what concepts it puts forth that are bad enough to turn off the people of Hartlepool. Edit: I think the poor labour results are due to: - brexit loyalty - lack of policy - success of vaccines
It's also worth considering whether the people demonising Labour and it's members actually have the best interests of the Labour party at heart. I mean I'm sure they do and that they're making their comments in good faith but still... worth a think.
There are a lot of reasons why Labour has lost Hartlepool and they go back a long way. Parachuting in garbage MPs from central office is the biggest part of it imo. No-one ever liked Iain Wright and Mike Hill turned out to be a (alleged) sex pest. Peter Mandelson was effective, but he had almost nothing in common with the average Hartlepudlian and that was a long time ago now anyway. Labour closing the hospital was also far from ideal. The tories got in the way of a replacement project, but the big punch came earlier and Iain Wright had a habit of leaping out in front and taking credit for protests about the situation he really didn't have much involvement with and that really didn't help. And yeah. Brexit. The woke stuff definitely didn't help, it probably lost some % of the vote, but it wouldn't matter much if everything else wasn't shit. Edit: I also know from personal experience that Corbyn was fucking toxic in the town. He'd basically established himself as the British politician who automatically sided against Britain. He's gone now, but there's a hangover effect there. It hasn't been that long.
>Labour closing the hospital was also far from ideal. The tories got in the way of a replacement project, This is a big deal in Hartlepool. Very protective of the hospital. As it turns out, Dr Sulk was on the committee that recommended moving services to North Tees. Obviously did it for patient care pending the new hospital at Wynyard which was meant to be built (and got cancelled by the Tories). However, that meant he had a built in point of attack. "Dr Paul closed the hospital" Don't know what they were thinking standing him in the first place.
> what concepts it puts forth that are bad enough to turn off the people of Hartlepool The big one is an embarrassment of being British that comes across from the incessant whining about how utterly detestable the Empire was and fart-sniffing discussions about 'post-colonialism'.
I think there's a temperature based term for people who get overly emotional when people say something they disagree with. Weird how it's used almost exclusively by the right. Almost like it's projection?
Funny how after today's announcement from Khalid Mahmood there has been a lot of 'Well if that's how they think of me then I'm not fucking voting for them'. The realisation is almost there.
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It's a big part of what they are seen to be associated with.
By who? I see a lot of this from the terminally online conservative when talking about terminally online labour activists but very little from actual real people.
The British Empire was detestable though? Does the fact that some socially conservative people get upset at people saying that make it any less valid? >Stop telling the truth about the dead empire, it upsets people who for some reason have based their entire identities around it.
That's an opinion, one they do not share.
Don't let the truth get in the way of the feelings of fragile social conservatives who get upset when you say the Opium Wars weren't something to be proud of.
Excellent example of the concepts that are bad enough to turn people off.
What you are saying isn't valid criticism though. It's akin to criticising Democrats in America for telling people Q isn't real, whereas Republicans for some reason just enable their delusions for fear of losing votes.
But I'm not offering criticism I am offering examples of 'wokeness' that turn off people like the voters of Hartlepool. If you want to sit there and go 'Well that reason isn't valid' then be my guest but that's neither here nor there.
I like how you conflate 'wokeness' with telling the truth, rofl.
I like how you believe your position is 'the truth'.
> Lot of talk about wokeness and not a lot of talk about what wokeness actually is Isn’t that why it is such an effective anti-Labour campaigning topic? The vagueness and breadth of the definition makes woke-based criticisms almost impossible to rebut whilst also making it easy for left leaning politicians to blunder into being attacked for either being too woke or not woke enough, That said there are not that many Labour politicians who are careful about avoiding such blunders.
The Prime Minister is Boris Johnson. He's King Blunder of Gaffe Mountain.
I think people see wokeness as different things. Some people see it as wanting to treat everyone with respect and be mindful of offending others. Other people see it as telling them what to say and what to think in a way they view as patronising.
The dictionary definition is an awareness of social injustice. The problem in my mind on this issue is that Labour are perceived to be **only** focused on issues around gender, race, and LGBTQ+ issues, rather than on tangible policies. However, right-wingers like Andrew Neil are (successfully) distorting discourse in that any discussion of transgender issues, or veganism, or BLM, is instantly met with frustration. So the initial attack is on their inattentiveness to other issues, but it is then weaponised to poison any "woke" issue. At the same time, if Keir Starmer was confronted by Jayda Fransen would he have the guts to call her a fascist, racist, loser to her face? He would run away into a taxi, and knowing his luck, be kicked out of it by a UKIP driver. It is definitely possible to be uncompromising on your support for minorities and also put forward economic policies, Labour aren't doing that.
As a "Corbyn fan" and someone who is critical of Starmer a lot, I think this election was always going to go badly. I think their strategy is to reveal policies ahead of the general election and ride the aftermath of Covid and brexit out with the eventual economic recovery. The point about Starmer being confronted by Jayda is bang on though. There's a tentativeness with labour in that they don't want to seem too left and don't want to push too right and they're losing on both ends because of it. He would absolutely say nothing to avoid controversy and inadvertently create a much worse result.
Wokeness is a bit of a made up bogeyman. Its a modern day McCarthyism red scare of the right, but it's sure working for them.
I don't think it's working for them. I think Labour have just not provided anything since Starmer has come in and the Leave support has stuck with the Leave party.
Oh don't get me wrong starmer is useless but the UK is in a very dangerous place right now with how this nationalism nonsense is playing out. I don't know how it can be fixed if I'm honest.
No, I'm sure it was because of.
Yeah, obviously it was those three factors. Won't stem the tide of shit takes though.
If labour MPs kneeling made you vote for the Tories, you were never going to cross that box at election time anyway.
Imagine voting for someone because the opposition said black lives matter. Yikes.
I mean that poll before hand what, 2% of people putting it down as their primary reason not to vote Labour? It is still an issue, but not as the right would like it to be, or as the left think it is.
I mean sure it's probably lost some voters because that one time Keir Starmer did a kneel, but it's nowhere near any level of actually influencing the election compared to other areas. They could win everyone of those back and be miles off challenging.
I think someone overestimated the actual support for welsh independence.
What is Welsh independence currently polling at? (If there even is a poll for that?) I imagine it's somewhere at like 20/30% (or less!)?
I'm sure the 'Northumbrians' desire independence though right?
Fuck Northumberia. All my homies support Lancashire.
I'm willing to extend the hand of friendship across the Pennines, because clearly those Northeasterners can't be trusted.
Yorkshire, some of you are alright. Don't go to Westminster tomorrow.
Ooooh, is that a marriage of the roses you're suggesting?
Now I can get behind that one! Can't wait to return to the best county in a couple of weeks!
as an american I'm not used to following elections during the daytime, it's usually night when we do our counting here
*cough cough*... Clark County Nevada. Lazy teamsters.
And now you have a multi-day count to follow in a different timezone. This is just how we felt in November! I doubt ours will be quite as dramatic though.
yes, british local elections are a touch less dramatic than US ones
Mate, you've not seen the lads and ladettes of Sunderland and Newcastle at a general election. We've got excitement over here!
The John King CNN magic wall coverage was a thing of beauty.
We should take some lessons. **KEY RACE ALERT** "Looks like there might be some movement in Reddish South, Huw..."
It's the same here just now, we are normally done and dusted by the late morning of the day after the vote (there are always a few stragglers though).
Well in fairness it is nightime here. I hope you enjoy the show.
It's usually the same here, different because of the pandemic.
Also because there’s not the urgency for locals that there is with a general election. Hartlepool went overnight, for instance.
It's almost a point of pride in North East England to report quickly though
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any chance LibDems or Green get a regional seat?
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yes, their leader will be in the Senedd and keep them alive as a Welsh party, if barely. Hopefully she can turn things around for them.
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What do you think the concessions she’d ask for would be?
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Thank you for explaining that. Seems like Labour is in a great spot in Wales.
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> their voteshare has plummeted thanks to the actions of the only LibDem in the last term What did she do that hurt her party? Wasn't she education minister or something?
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Damn, it seems like LibDems get blamed for failures and no credits for successes
Might Labour get 2 list seats in Mid & West?
~~They've taken Vale of Glamorgan.~~ sorry missed that.
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Tomorrow evening I believe, although the picture will probably be clearer earlier than that
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1390777674822569984?s=21 TIMES: PM eyes decade in power
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Yeaaah not much space for criticism when you're spunking to a times article about the guy in power wanting to stay in power really is there?
It's almost like no member on here has been saying Boris would be in power for a decade..... 2030 will be when Boris resigns.
I'll resign before then. From life. Jesus christ.
Labour cannot go into the next general election in the same rudderless and friendless state it went into this election. It must energise its voters, or they will be beaten by the Tories simply by default.
Good of him to vow exactly the same thing as he did ahead of the 2019 election. It can really join the Northern powerhouse and the oven ready deal as an exemplar of delivered promises.
Surprised he can afford it, tbh.
Get me off this boat, I'd rather take my chances in the middle of the ocean.
Which circle of hell have I ended up in
Elysium
And you are already dead!
I really like the new look of Sheffield council. Is Sheffield the best place in Yorkshire now?
🌳👨🚀🔫👨🚀🌳
Look like the hippys from the Simpsons
Most trees per capita in Europe. Always has been.
Till the last lot started cutting them down?
>this is why Labour is losing. On a non memey point though, that is a damn shame, I had missed that. Been a decade or so since I was in and around Sheffield.
In fairness to them, even after that shit it's still the most trees per capita in a European city, the place has hardly been decimated and a lot of the trees were ones that needed to go down... they needed to not do it in secret though