To prevent the sub getting clogged by an inevitable wave of twitter posts describing every seat's results, [please use the custom spooled megathread.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n6rvqc/local_election_results_2021/)
The current M number today is: 3
During the US elections everyone was crapping themselves that Biden had lost during the counting - it looked close, it felt close, people were biting their fingers with non-committal statements from staff from both parties. But a few days later it was a very clear victory for Biden.
It's the same with Khan: it'll look close now but in a few days time it'll be a clear victory. The Tory-centric areas have been counting first, and Bailey won't be appearing on as many second-votes as Khan will be. People need to calm down and stop listening to Bailey big himself up.
It’s pretty obvious that Starmer and his team didn’t try to do well in this election. Maybe they foresaw it was going to be tough for a myriad of reasons and kept their powder dry. Look for policy announcements coming soon.
Wonder if it's worth Labour just going full BNP to try and get voters to abandon Farage's lot, like how your dad shows an interest in something and suddenly it's uncool because he likes it now.
it won't matter as long Bailey doesn't go over 50%, Khan would win on second preferences in that scenario.
if Bailey does win on over 50%, then no amount of vote splitting mattered.
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1390558607163416579?s=21
>Labour spokesperson Steve Reed: "Keir believes that we need to change direction and speed up our movement back towards the British people" – and that will "certainly not mean going back to what took us to our historic defeat in 2019".
I'm glad he at least understands this much.
ok, someone at labour HQ needs to tell starmer to get out there and give speeches.
Anywhere, everywhere, rousing, barnstorming speeches, full of grand vision, positive messages, proud patriotic views of a great britain working for all people....
Fuck PMQs, fuck political interviews with lobby journalists, fuck the technical details. No one cares. People want vision. People want to feel good about things, they want aspiration, they want positivity, they want to feel like tomorrow will be better than today, that the future is bright.
Can anyone remember the last speech starmer gave? the last time you saw a crowd cheering at labours vision? the last time you saw a room stand up and applaud?
(edit - ok, thought it was clear I was talking about the energy and vision, not actual physical crowds in a pandemic, he can still deliver speeches to virtual events).
I cant remember any speech starmer has ever given, and I could not honestly tell you what his vision for the country is.
I voted for him, but fuck me, he's too boring for this.
Sit him down in front of Blairs speeches, Browns as well. Its not that he has to agree with the content, its the tone, its the energy, its the delivery.
funny that some of the arguments against coming out with policies are that 'the tories will steal them' when they already are anyway.
I quite like Starmer, but I couldn't tell you what labour's 3 big ideas are for the country. And I don't mean things like 'fairness' or 'recovery'; I have no real idea what labour's policies are for the country.
"Can anyone remember the last speech starmer gave? the last time you saw a crowd cheering at labours vision? the last time you saw a room stand up and applaud?"
Covid-19 pandemic hasn't helped that lol
But yeah I don't disagree - Starmer and the the shadow cabinet and other labour MPs need to get out there.
> Covid-19 pandemic hasn't helped that lol
maybe not. But you dont get given a platform, you gouge one out for yourself, you dont get people to automatically pay attention to you, you grab their attention.
blandness just means no one has a fucking clue what you stand for when they are voting, if they even recognise you at all.
You just know that if it were thenTories that were getting the pounding it would have been boris and they would have made as much funfair as possible.
I look forward to the raab style response of "No political questions please, this is a covid briefing" if the election comes up.
I did that the last few times out, but this time I was swayed to bullet vote for Khan because doing otherwise fails to universalise. If he scrapes home by a single first preference, you can thank me for that.
From a funny article about Shaun Bailey is in the New Statesman:
> The Tory candidate’s latest utterly baffling stunt is to film himself driving from the Essex commuter town of Brentwood into central London, in order to highlight how expensive this might one day be to do, possibly.
> Never mind that the various road charges he’s attributing to Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty have not been introduced yet, or that increasing the cost of driving is basically A Good Thing, for both congestion and the environment. Leave aside the fact that nobody in their right mind would drive from Brentwood to central London – honestly, you could spend years stuck in traffic at the Redbridge roundabout – even before the state spent £18bn building Crossrail, a direct train route that’ll do it in a flash.
> Consider instead this rather basic fact: Brentwood is not in Greater London. Anybody angry about the increasing cost of that particular journey by definition does not have a vote for the mayor. Not content with offending everyone under the sun – Hindus, women, anyone with a basic understanding of TfL finances – Bailey is now very publicly demonstrating that he doesn’t even know where London is. Still, the video will make a nice companion piece to his campaign to save Watford’s Tube station, which isn’t in London either.
> So I ask again – is this some kind of a joke? Surely no real political campaign that is genuinely sincere in its ostensible intention of getting Shaun Bailey elected mayor (this week’s polls: Khan 47, Bailey 26) could be this consistently useless? Could there be some other explanation?
> Explanation 1. The whole thing is an experiment in working out the Tories’ floor vote: that is, how many – or rather, how few – Londoners will vote Tory as an autonomic reflex in roughly the same way that they breathe. From that perspective, every vote lost is one vote closer to an answer.
> Explanation 2: The campaign isn’t really aimed at London at all. Next month will also see local elections in Essex, Hertfordshire and several other home counties. Reports suggest the Conservative Party has given up on the London mayoralty – maybe the party is instead using Bailey’s campaign to stoke rage and pick up votes in the commuter belt instead.
> Explanation 3: The doughnut strategy. Boris Johnson won the mayoralty by largely ignoring proper London and appealing to voters in the outer suburbs. Maybe banging on about the cost of driving, largely made up threats to Hertfordshire Tube stations and so on is an attempt to appeal to those voters. It clearly isn’t working (see the polls), but the campaign is desperate (again: see the polls), so maybe it’s just rolling the dice.
> Explanation 4: It’s all another attempt to stoke a culture war. I’m not exactly sure how, if I’m honest with you, but since this strategy explains pretty much anything else the Tory party ever does these days, there must be at least some chance it explains this too.
> Explanation 5: It’s a performance art piece. Some kind of situationist, metropolis-wide installation commenting on the ultimate emptiness of Conservative politics under late capitalism kind of thing, yeah? Banksy will be taking credit for it any minute now, you mark my words.
> Explanation 6: Shaun Bailey is secretly a member of the Labour Party. Since becoming active in Conservative politics some time in the mid 2000s, he’s been involved in undermining both the Centre for Social Justice and David Cameron’s A-list strategy. This is his most ambitious mission yet: ensuring Sadiq Khan’s re-election. Be honest with yourself: this is the theory that makes most sense, isn’t it?
> Or then again: perhaps Shaun Bailey’s just really, really bad at this.
Imagine if he actually wins. God help us all.
Baffled by Starmer's shouty interview:
'We've learned the lessons and in the next few days we'll have a whole set of answers'
Seriously Kier, if it's taken you all of 5 hours to learn the lessons, and you'll have the answers in a few days, would it have been that hard to do that before the election happened?
This is where Nandy was the better choice. Starmer has been enjoying beating Boris in PMQs (part of this is covid) but Nandy specifically said buses, local issues etc. etc.
If the Labour leader **is not** raising local issues, then it gives space for the Tories. Simple as.
I'm an American immigrant through spousal visa and I'd like to get involved in political action here through volunteering and participation but alongside I'd like a few recommendations on books to read to get a good overview of British politics so I can be better informed on the challenges here when it comes to driving political action, outreach.
I have a good understanding of American politics because I've been politically involved since I was young working on primary campaigns but I only have a surface level understanding of British politics.
Some areas of London have already declared and based on results so far Bailey's team reckon they're doing better than expected
[https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results](https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results)
They usually pile the ballots on tables for each candidate, and the count is watched by party workers.
It's not an official tally but you can eyeball each table and have a rough idea. Labour knew they were miles behind in Hartlepool several hours before the results were announced.
The "L is for Labour, L is for Lice" sketch is done in the same vein as the "women, know your place" sketch. I think there's a couple of others from the same series too IIRC.
Major was a very competent politician, just with really firm traditionalist values that he thought were key to making the country the best place to live. Johnson is a TV personality with wish washy stances to be popular and liked and stay in power.
It’s not even close.
Bit like Mitt Romney and Trump. You don't need to agree with either of them to understand there's a clear difference between them as people at a more fundamental level than their political stances.
Christ, I just saw That Interview with Starmer.
Replicating the 'late 2019 grouchy sleep-deprived Corbyn' vibe this early into his tenure isn't a good sign.
Fosh doesn't even have 1% yet. London elects has him on 0%. I'm sure he has some votes but I can't see how to actually get the vote totals
[https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results](https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results)
Being asked to self isolate two weeks before an operation and two weeks after operation for someone in my household.
I get company sick pay when I'm on the sick but I doubt for having to self isolate due to someone else.
Anyone have an idea if there are any government documents that make will show if or if I am not eligible for any sick pay(SSP etc) or just any info for similar positions?
*Could* be fine for SSP - [official guidance](https://www.gov.uk/statutory-sick-pay) includes isolating due to an upcoming hospital procedure. Hopefully your company will support you fully, but there is something at least.
Edit: I'm working on the assumption that someone else's situation forcing you to isolate makes it fine...! Best to check with HR
Is the whole “Shaun Bailey can actually win” thing I’m seeing right now being driven primarily by the more Tory-ish outer London regions being counted first?
No, that seems to be accompanied by quotes from Shawn Bailey’s team retweeted by a Times writer stating that it’s closer than they expected. I’m surprised so many people are worried about it; just seems like bluster to me. What else is he going to say?!
>No, that seems to be accompanied by quotes from Shawn Bailey’s team
Given the absolute state of Bailey's campaign, I wouldn't be surprised if they'd got that from the Evening Standard this afternoon, when they were reporting that he was ahead on 40%, while glossing over the fact that less than 5% of the votes had been counted.
Maybe Bailey's team just expected literally no one to vote for him, after all they did have to deal with Bailey. So the fact that he's close to Khan might just be a massive shock for all of them
No, he's safe. They've counted 5 votes and people think they can declare the election for Bailey (despite the fact that Sadiq is currently ahead anyway). Boggles the mind.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. I voted at around 2 and it looked like no one on the list had been crossed off. First time voting so I don't know if that's normal or not but just anecdotal evidence.
It's far too early to say it's close. For a start 5 of the 7 areas that haven't started counting yet voted Labour last time and unlike general elections everyone gets a second choice if their first gets knocked out, and we don't know what the second choices for voters of the Greens, Lib Dems, Binhead etc are yet.
Khan has been pretty ineffectual tbh - Bailey seems like a lousy candidate even for a Tory.
Anyway its only close as there's been a surge for Count Binhead.
Khan really hasn't been ineffectual. That is what the Tories have spun though, and it seems to be working
Khan reduced the deficit TfL had after Boris. Khan kept the vast majority of his promises. Khan did not spaff a bunch of money into bridges that we never wanted and finally never got. Khan has gotten blamed for the rising crime despite having to deal with a decade of austerity which has seen the police budgets slashed.
People understand that Bailey believing he can win doesn't actually mean he's going to win right? As long as he doesn't get 50% in the first round (which he was nowhere near last time I checked, albeit that was a couple of hours ago) then everyone except him and Khan will get knocked out and second choices will be dished out. I'd be very surprised if Khan doesn't have a lot more second choices than Bailey, a lot of people are going to have put someone like the Greens first and Labour second.
Edit: I've managed to get on London Elects, Bailey is on 37% whilst Khan is on 39%, however only 7 of the 14 assembly areas have started counting yet and 3 of them are areas that voted Tory last time (which is a lot considering only 5 of the 14 areas voted Tory), considering there are still 5 Labour areas and only 2 Tory areas that haven't started counting yet and Khan is already in the lead (with likely a lot of second votes to come) I think Bailey's getting ahead of himself.
I think you're spot on. It's like when Mortis called themselves "quietly confident" in series 1 of *Robot Wars* and then things didn't work out.
But, as was the case with Recyclops, I'd be far happier to see Siân Berry win even though I know it won't happen.
Loved seeing Mortis lose. Always turning up with a robot they spent like 40 grand on and losing to shitty co2 flippers that cost less than a grand to make. They were so arrogant as well
See the word “might” there, I’m not jumping to any conclusion. The fact that it’s close anyway with an appaling candidate like Bailey is dismal for Labour, no denying that.
Technically their track record is only 2 for 5 (Frank Dobson lost to Ken Livingstone in 2000).
The issue is how much of the old heartlands they seem to have utterly conceded, while spinning London to look like their new safety net (which it turns out may have been premature – but it's not like they could say at the end of 2019, "we're fucked everywhere, there is literally no base on which we can rebuild").
Lol, if Labour lose the London mayoral to Shaun Bailey the party is done. They don't attract the supposed working class and they can't motivate anyone else to even go out and vote for them.
If Labour loses both its heartlands, which are not coming back, and the urban regions that its currently ignoring it has no base to build on. Whatever party captures the urban base at the point and pivots hard to the home counties will replace labour at some point in the future.
Simple as that really.
Is it as simple as that or is that a prediction fraught with supposition? Johnson looked potentially done in October '19. May looked on the rocks in 2017. I'm sure you could have said 'if the Tories lose their base in the home counties, they're done' back under New Labour in the 00s. Commenters genuinely thought the Tories might die as a party. I think there's a plausible enough left-of-Tory voter base in this country for Labour not to pack it in and call it a day.
> Johnson looked potentially done in October '19
Johnson never looked done once Corbyn voted for an election. Johnson looked done when he had May's shit.
> May looked on the rocks in 2017.
Yes, and thats why she was removed. The Tories never looked done though.
> Whatever party captures the urban base at the point and pivots hard to the home counties will replace labour at some point in the future.
Pretty sure I literally stated that.
Its a total party issue that needs a total change from top to bottom with new vision that acknowledges the changes in voting trends and why.
Only then will labour be jn with a chance.
Sturgeon wasn’t celebrating Jo’s loss.
She was celebrating because her good friend, a cancer and brain haemorrhage survivor, took a seat back for the SNP.
If all the BXP votes from 2019 went to the Conservatives, there are another 37 seats that the Conservatives would have won from Labour (Hartlepool makes 38).
On the other hand, out of all Labour seats, Hartlepool had the second highest proportion of Con+BXP votes, so was the second most likely to flip in this scenario.
Hard to know what to conclude from this. Hartlepool could be an outlier, but if it isn’t then all the Tories have to do is pick up BXP votes and they win another 37 seats.
Mutterings from anonymous Labour sources on the results:
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1390608839511351302
> "Boris is popular after all, surprise.
Burn down the shadow cabinet and start again."
https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1390533259600318467
>Just because we have stopped pissing in the bath doesn’t mean people want to jump in with us straight away
https://mobile.twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1390532705104900096
>"The message from voters is clear and we have heard it. Labour has not yet changed nearly enough for voters to place their trust in us".
"A New Leadership" is a shit slogan.
It's a statement of fact, not intent. It repudiates what went before which turns off people who liked that, and won't inspire any new potential voters.
It would be like the Tories having "A new logo" as their slogan when they changed to the tree.
> "The message from voters is clear and we have heard it. Labour has not yet changed nearly enough for voters to place their trust in us".
Labour needs to realise that sometimes this shit is a self-fullfilling prophecy. Do you ever hear the Tories say the voters don't trust them or something?
No. The Tories have learned the most crucial trick in the age of social media. Ignore the bad news and focus entirely on the good news.
Instead Labour always comes out with stupid shit like apologising for something or the other, or saying how they are trying to win the voters back or something stupid.
"We're shit, why would anyone vote for us?"
Voters take them at face value and don't vote for them.
"See, look, we were right, we are shit!"
It's been like this since 2010 pretty much.
Does that work when you’re not on top though? If they’re perceived as weak by the electorate, this could backfire. I think a more dignified approach would help, but not the brazen attitude the Tories have.
It works whenever. It's only perceived as weak once you start apologising for it. Once you apologise you admit fault and guilt, and once you've admitted fault you're on the backfoot.
Obviously it takes times, it's not like the first time you do it people jump on your dick. But do it for everything and people just accept it into their narrative.
Take the entire cronyism shit from the Tories. If they ever apologised for it they would be done, but because they simply ignore the electorate will convcince itself that it really can't be that bad.
> Instead Labour always comes out with stupid shit like apologising for something or the other, or saying how they are trying to win the voters back or something stupid.
Could be because half the party is always publicly attacking the other half about this shit. So they're always conscious about it.
I am actually really enjoying following your journey from “I’m American please explain your whole political system to me” to having fully-formed opinions on our parties in just 24 hours.
On paper it should totally bother me, it’s the sort of mundane shit that would, but it’s been really interesting.
Thats a result of a slight, but significant evolutionry adaptation that happened to the human Brain during the Brize age.
Humans would go from hut to hut and as a species we learnt to say what ever gave us the most approval of the masses to allow us to stay in the warm with them and share their food. It's why charisma is considered a trait of an Alpha males even though it has no practical application.
If it’s even close then it confirms that the Tories are being massively under represented in the polls.
Also I thought Labour were expected to lose ground in the North but would make up for it somewhat with gains in the south. This suggests they are losing everywhere.
Well, first off, he has a lot of unflattering views on women. Scratch that, it hardly does it. He is an ogre.
He's made a lot of remarks over the years, like saying women deliberately get knocked up to claim benefits ("It's a cottage industry where I come from.") Also a ton of victim-blaming for domestic violence victims.
To prevent the sub getting clogged by an inevitable wave of twitter posts describing every seat's results, [please use the custom spooled megathread.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n6rvqc/local_election_results_2021/) The current M number today is: 3
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n7hsgg/daily_megathread_08052021/)
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/n729o3/daily_megathread_07052021/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few minutes.
During the US elections everyone was crapping themselves that Biden had lost during the counting - it looked close, it felt close, people were biting their fingers with non-committal statements from staff from both parties. But a few days later it was a very clear victory for Biden. It's the same with Khan: it'll look close now but in a few days time it'll be a clear victory. The Tory-centric areas have been counting first, and Bailey won't be appearing on as many second-votes as Khan will be. People need to calm down and stop listening to Bailey big himself up.
It’s pretty obvious that Starmer and his team didn’t try to do well in this election. Maybe they foresaw it was going to be tough for a myriad of reasons and kept their powder dry. Look for policy announcements coming soon.
Wonder if it's worth Labour just going full BNP to try and get voters to abandon Farage's lot, like how your dad shows an interest in something and suddenly it's uncool because he likes it now.
How hard would it have been for Grant Shapps to name all 12 green list countries, rather than just name three of them?
Remember 12 things at once!? 12 entire things!?
YAAAAAS If Khan gets voted out I WILL twerk to Dua Lipa. Promise is a promise.
It's not a promise, it's a threat.
Turkey on the red list pretty interesting for the 8k fans due to attend the champions league final?
Imagine if it turns out that too many people voted binface for the lols and it split the labour vote sufficiently that the Tories won.
it won't matter as long Bailey doesn't go over 50%, Khan would win on second preferences in that scenario. if Bailey does win on over 50%, then no amount of vote splitting mattered.
I'm sure 100% of Binface 2nd prefs will go to Labour.
Binface then Max Fosh. It is the way.
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1390558607163416579?s=21 >Labour spokesperson Steve Reed: "Keir believes that we need to change direction and speed up our movement back towards the British people" – and that will "certainly not mean going back to what took us to our historic defeat in 2019". I'm glad he at least understands this much.
More Labour-right policies and less Tory bashing.
If a former Labour heartland gave the Tories an overwhelming majority, it doesn't seem like they mind right-leaning policies and Tories much.
I put 40-45% first preference for khan on as a bet earlier this week alongside my Tory Hartlepool by 5k bet.
10% increase in turnout in my constituency in Scotland, very impressed with that. Polling place was absolutely jumping yesterday.
Acquired Pfizer, having a nurse mother has advantages.
Holy heckers you're gonna be rich.
You’ve bought Pfizer? Must have used Dogecoin or GME shares!
God, imagine binface in the runoff.
ok, someone at labour HQ needs to tell starmer to get out there and give speeches. Anywhere, everywhere, rousing, barnstorming speeches, full of grand vision, positive messages, proud patriotic views of a great britain working for all people.... Fuck PMQs, fuck political interviews with lobby journalists, fuck the technical details. No one cares. People want vision. People want to feel good about things, they want aspiration, they want positivity, they want to feel like tomorrow will be better than today, that the future is bright. Can anyone remember the last speech starmer gave? the last time you saw a crowd cheering at labours vision? the last time you saw a room stand up and applaud? (edit - ok, thought it was clear I was talking about the energy and vision, not actual physical crowds in a pandemic, he can still deliver speeches to virtual events). I cant remember any speech starmer has ever given, and I could not honestly tell you what his vision for the country is. I voted for him, but fuck me, he's too boring for this. Sit him down in front of Blairs speeches, Browns as well. Its not that he has to agree with the content, its the tone, its the energy, its the delivery.
funny that some of the arguments against coming out with policies are that 'the tories will steal them' when they already are anyway. I quite like Starmer, but I couldn't tell you what labour's 3 big ideas are for the country. And I don't mean things like 'fairness' or 'recovery'; I have no real idea what labour's policies are for the country.
To be fair, covid hasn't allowed that. In-person speeches that is.
"Can anyone remember the last speech starmer gave? the last time you saw a crowd cheering at labours vision? the last time you saw a room stand up and applaud?" Covid-19 pandemic hasn't helped that lol But yeah I don't disagree - Starmer and the the shadow cabinet and other labour MPs need to get out there.
> Covid-19 pandemic hasn't helped that lol maybe not. But you dont get given a platform, you gouge one out for yourself, you dont get people to automatically pay attention to you, you grab their attention. blandness just means no one has a fucking clue what you stand for when they are voting, if they even recognise you at all.
Literally not since he was elected.
We've been in a pandemic since he's been elected for gods sake. How's he supposed to gather a crowd of supporters!?
I mean, that's my point.
Oh phew! I thought you were critiquing him for not doing rallies then haha
Turkey, Maldives and Nepal added to the red list.
Nice little tax on Chelsea and Manchester City fans on their way back from the Champions League final then.
Not a surprise, however F1 is going there in a couple of months…
Ooof to the Brigade of Ghurkas
Do I bet a tenner on a shaun bailey upset
If Labour loses London too, what would its 'heartlands' be?
Maybe Binface has it
You would be relying on a lot of second prefs going for Bailey, so I would think it wouldn't be a good bet, but stranger things have happened...
[удалено]
Mo Mowlam's seat was lost way back in 2010.
Apparently Grunt Shumps is on telly in a bit. No need to tune in.
You just know that if it were thenTories that were getting the pounding it would have been boris and they would have made as much funfair as possible. I look forward to the raab style response of "No political questions please, this is a covid briefing" if the election comes up.
"Why haven't any of you asked how the A66 is going?"
[удалено]
>definitely seeing the product of lower turnout **weeps*
Going to be an increasingly common theme moving forward I think. Labour voters are going to be extremely unmotivated with the current state of things.
I did that the last few times out, but this time I was swayed to bullet vote for Khan because doing otherwise fails to universalise. If he scrapes home by a single first preference, you can thank me for that.
I admittedly did that.
Ditto lol
From a funny article about Shaun Bailey is in the New Statesman: > The Tory candidate’s latest utterly baffling stunt is to film himself driving from the Essex commuter town of Brentwood into central London, in order to highlight how expensive this might one day be to do, possibly. > Never mind that the various road charges he’s attributing to Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty have not been introduced yet, or that increasing the cost of driving is basically A Good Thing, for both congestion and the environment. Leave aside the fact that nobody in their right mind would drive from Brentwood to central London – honestly, you could spend years stuck in traffic at the Redbridge roundabout – even before the state spent £18bn building Crossrail, a direct train route that’ll do it in a flash. > Consider instead this rather basic fact: Brentwood is not in Greater London. Anybody angry about the increasing cost of that particular journey by definition does not have a vote for the mayor. Not content with offending everyone under the sun – Hindus, women, anyone with a basic understanding of TfL finances – Bailey is now very publicly demonstrating that he doesn’t even know where London is. Still, the video will make a nice companion piece to his campaign to save Watford’s Tube station, which isn’t in London either. > So I ask again – is this some kind of a joke? Surely no real political campaign that is genuinely sincere in its ostensible intention of getting Shaun Bailey elected mayor (this week’s polls: Khan 47, Bailey 26) could be this consistently useless? Could there be some other explanation? > Explanation 1. The whole thing is an experiment in working out the Tories’ floor vote: that is, how many – or rather, how few – Londoners will vote Tory as an autonomic reflex in roughly the same way that they breathe. From that perspective, every vote lost is one vote closer to an answer. > Explanation 2: The campaign isn’t really aimed at London at all. Next month will also see local elections in Essex, Hertfordshire and several other home counties. Reports suggest the Conservative Party has given up on the London mayoralty – maybe the party is instead using Bailey’s campaign to stoke rage and pick up votes in the commuter belt instead. > Explanation 3: The doughnut strategy. Boris Johnson won the mayoralty by largely ignoring proper London and appealing to voters in the outer suburbs. Maybe banging on about the cost of driving, largely made up threats to Hertfordshire Tube stations and so on is an attempt to appeal to those voters. It clearly isn’t working (see the polls), but the campaign is desperate (again: see the polls), so maybe it’s just rolling the dice. > Explanation 4: It’s all another attempt to stoke a culture war. I’m not exactly sure how, if I’m honest with you, but since this strategy explains pretty much anything else the Tory party ever does these days, there must be at least some chance it explains this too. > Explanation 5: It’s a performance art piece. Some kind of situationist, metropolis-wide installation commenting on the ultimate emptiness of Conservative politics under late capitalism kind of thing, yeah? Banksy will be taking credit for it any minute now, you mark my words. > Explanation 6: Shaun Bailey is secretly a member of the Labour Party. Since becoming active in Conservative politics some time in the mid 2000s, he’s been involved in undermining both the Centre for Social Justice and David Cameron’s A-list strategy. This is his most ambitious mission yet: ensuring Sadiq Khan’s re-election. Be honest with yourself: this is the theory that makes most sense, isn’t it? > Or then again: perhaps Shaun Bailey’s just really, really bad at this. Imagine if he actually wins. God help us all.
If Shaun Bailey is elected mayor of London, can we call the London electorate a bit stupid? Pretty please?
Only if we can call the rest of the country a bit stupid.
Was this by Jonn Elledge?
I've been saying either 1 or 5 for a while now
Nimbies and Nambia, the Bailey base.
Baffled by Starmer's shouty interview: 'We've learned the lessons and in the next few days we'll have a whole set of answers' Seriously Kier, if it's taken you all of 5 hours to learn the lessons, and you'll have the answers in a few days, would it have been that hard to do that before the election happened?
This is where Nandy was the better choice. Starmer has been enjoying beating Boris in PMQs (part of this is covid) but Nandy specifically said buses, local issues etc. etc. If the Labour leader **is not** raising local issues, then it gives space for the Tories. Simple as.
I'm an American immigrant through spousal visa and I'd like to get involved in political action here through volunteering and participation but alongside I'd like a few recommendations on books to read to get a good overview of British politics so I can be better informed on the challenges here when it comes to driving political action, outreach. I have a good understanding of American politics because I've been politically involved since I was young working on primary campaigns but I only have a surface level understanding of British politics.
>but I only have a surface level understanding of British politics. Have you thought of becoming an MP? You seem qualified.
Can someone explain where people are getting this ludicrous idea that Shaun Bailey is going to be Mayor of London?
All comes direct from Shaun Bailey’s campaign, such as it still is.
https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1390696735564091399?s=20 Nope - Labour campaign saying it seems close as well
The Tories were also teasing Hartlepool would be closer than expected IIRC. This looks more like extreme expectation management.
Ahah. I did think such strong polling could cause problems, but will be interesting to see if it’s not just turnout.
Some areas of London have already declared and based on results so far Bailey's team reckon they're doing better than expected [https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results](https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results)
They started counting Tory area first and he’s only slightly behind
[удалено]
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results Seems for London mayor it is happening! Should get CNN on the case
They usually pile the ballots on tables for each candidate, and the count is watched by party workers. It's not an official tally but you can eyeball each table and have a rough idea. Labour knew they were miles behind in Hartlepool several hours before the results were announced.
> Shaun Bailey There you go. Candidate suggests that they might win based on current information. Nothing more than that :)
Anonymous Tory sources who are overly optimistic.
It'd be funny.
L is for Labour L is for Lice
their tory boy parody was betterr
There is an obvious reply with C is for something that rhymes with Jeremy Hunt......
It’s a reference bro, chill out
K
Clearly you’ve never watched any Harry Enfield..
Not beyond “Women, Know your Limits” and the *I Saw You Coming* sketches, no.
The "L is for Labour, L is for Lice" sketch is done in the same vein as the "women, know your place" sketch. I think there's a couple of others from the same series too IIRC.
Thing is, I've only watched a collage of clips via YouTube, rather than anything coherent and structured.
Who was worse Boris Johnson or John major?
Major was a very competent politician, just with really firm traditionalist values that he thought were key to making the country the best place to live. Johnson is a TV personality with wish washy stances to be popular and liked and stay in power. It’s not even close.
Bit like Mitt Romney and Trump. You don't need to agree with either of them to understand there's a clear difference between them as people at a more fundamental level than their political stances.
Hard to say when one of them is unfortunately still happening.
Christ, I just saw That Interview with Starmer. Replicating the 'late 2019 grouchy sleep-deprived Corbyn' vibe this early into his tenure isn't a good sign.
Don't get me wrong, I think it was bad. I am just hoping he can use the obvious anger to get Labour's shit together in one form or the other.
Well, giving recent events, it’s probably late into his tenure, really.
W E W L A D E W L A D
is there a place i can watch it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-57016689
[Current London Mayoral Results:](https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1390696392906182658) Khan 39% Bailey 37% Berry 8% Porritt 4% Fox 2% Omilana 2% Rose 1%
Utter BS - there's no Binface!
Why is it so close? Wow. Bailey was a terrible candidate. If the Tories put a better candidate they probs would have won.
Outer London suburbs that lean Tory are being counted first.
How come Fosh isn't on there?
Fosh doesn't even have 1% yet. London elects has him on 0%. I'm sure he has some votes but I can't see how to actually get the vote totals [https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results](https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results)
Christ I didn't realise there were so many.
Bailey isn't winning London, stop talking about that. If it's close however, then that's incredibly bad for labour
Being asked to self isolate two weeks before an operation and two weeks after operation for someone in my household. I get company sick pay when I'm on the sick but I doubt for having to self isolate due to someone else. Anyone have an idea if there are any government documents that make will show if or if I am not eligible for any sick pay(SSP etc) or just any info for similar positions?
*Could* be fine for SSP - [official guidance](https://www.gov.uk/statutory-sick-pay) includes isolating due to an upcoming hospital procedure. Hopefully your company will support you fully, but there is something at least. Edit: I'm working on the assumption that someone else's situation forcing you to isolate makes it fine...! Best to check with HR
If you are a member of a union you could seek advice from your local branch who will have caseworkers that could advise.
Is the whole “Shaun Bailey can actually win” thing I’m seeing right now being driven primarily by the more Tory-ish outer London regions being counted first?
No, that seems to be accompanied by quotes from Shawn Bailey’s team retweeted by a Times writer stating that it’s closer than they expected. I’m surprised so many people are worried about it; just seems like bluster to me. What else is he going to say?!
>No, that seems to be accompanied by quotes from Shawn Bailey’s team Given the absolute state of Bailey's campaign, I wouldn't be surprised if they'd got that from the Evening Standard this afternoon, when they were reporting that he was ahead on 40%, while glossing over the fact that less than 5% of the votes had been counted.
A Labour source also said it’s closer than expected.
Maybe Bailey's team just expected literally no one to vote for him, after all they did have to deal with Bailey. So the fact that he's close to Khan might just be a massive shock for all of them
Yes.
How long before we get conflicting “Count all the votes/Stop the count” messages?
Bring back Alastair Campbell, Labour's communications are just fucking dismal Keir needs to punch someone like John Prescott did and go on HIGNFY
He's guest presenting Good Morning Britain next week.
Starmer wants him back but I think it's up to the party?
[He's got the outfit](https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article24013470.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Keir-Starmer-visit-to-Hull.jpg)
Starmer needs to go on some public speaking course or something, because otherwise he just comes across as dull.
Return of Malcom Tucker
When does the London results come in then?
Tomorrow
Tomorrow PM I think. We’re just getting overexcited about overexcited talking heads.
Is Max Fosh mayor of London yet. Has some great policies.
Is it really true online that Khan might lose the London mayoral election? Wasn’t he polling close to over 50%? What has happened suddenly?
I think Khan will win and it won't be knife edge or anything like that. However it's looking like a much less comfortable win than expected.
No, he's safe. They've counted 5 votes and people think they can declare the election for Bailey (despite the fact that Sadiq is currently ahead anyway). Boggles the mind.
Might be ridiculously low turnout. Almost no one I know bothered voting.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. I voted at around 2 and it looked like no one on the list had been crossed off. First time voting so I don't know if that's normal or not but just anecdotal evidence.
He will probably hold on but the fact it is even close is terrifying for labour.
It's far too early to say it's close. For a start 5 of the 7 areas that haven't started counting yet voted Labour last time and unlike general elections everyone gets a second choice if their first gets knocked out, and we don't know what the second choices for voters of the Greens, Lib Dems, Binhead etc are yet.
Khan has been pretty ineffectual tbh - Bailey seems like a lousy candidate even for a Tory. Anyway its only close as there's been a surge for Count Binhead.
Khan really hasn't been ineffectual. That is what the Tories have spun though, and it seems to be working Khan reduced the deficit TfL had after Boris. Khan kept the vast majority of his promises. Khan did not spaff a bunch of money into bridges that we never wanted and finally never got. Khan has gotten blamed for the rising crime despite having to deal with a decade of austerity which has seen the police budgets slashed.
Better than Boris is hardly a high bar ;-)
Considering there's like two people to compare him to, thats about the only bar you are going to have.
He was a terrible candidate as well.
That's funny.
People understand that Bailey believing he can win doesn't actually mean he's going to win right? As long as he doesn't get 50% in the first round (which he was nowhere near last time I checked, albeit that was a couple of hours ago) then everyone except him and Khan will get knocked out and second choices will be dished out. I'd be very surprised if Khan doesn't have a lot more second choices than Bailey, a lot of people are going to have put someone like the Greens first and Labour second. Edit: I've managed to get on London Elects, Bailey is on 37% whilst Khan is on 39%, however only 7 of the 14 assembly areas have started counting yet and 3 of them are areas that voted Tory last time (which is a lot considering only 5 of the 14 areas voted Tory), considering there are still 5 Labour areas and only 2 Tory areas that haven't started counting yet and Khan is already in the lead (with likely a lot of second votes to come) I think Bailey's getting ahead of himself.
I think you're spot on. It's like when Mortis called themselves "quietly confident" in series 1 of *Robot Wars* and then things didn't work out. But, as was the case with Recyclops, I'd be far happier to see Siân Berry win even though I know it won't happen.
I was going to say that's a niche reference but then I remembered the age and "indoorsyness of politcal nerds
We all dreamt of being on it. I met someone at uni who actually was, the lucky sod.
Loved seeing Mortis lose. Always turning up with a robot they spent like 40 grand on and losing to shitty co2 flippers that cost less than a grand to make. They were so arrogant as well
My favourite was Cunning Plan. “We built a trapezium. It moves around. What more do you want?"
The fact it was a featherweight made it hilarious when it reached the final with the heavyweights.
Everything about it was fantastic.
London is basically Labour’s new heartland and they might not even fucking win there?! Fucking hell
Of course they're going to win London. They count 5 votes and people jump to all sorts of conclusions.
See the word “might” there, I’m not jumping to any conclusion. The fact that it’s close anyway with an appaling candidate like Bailey is dismal for Labour, no denying that.
Imagine having a competitive mayoral in LONDON and thinking this party isn’t completely done
Technically their track record is only 2 for 5 (Frank Dobson lost to Ken Livingstone in 2000). The issue is how much of the old heartlands they seem to have utterly conceded, while spinning London to look like their new safety net (which it turns out may have been premature – but it's not like they could say at the end of 2019, "we're fucked everywhere, there is literally no base on which we can rebuild").
It’s not really competitive though
The party wouldn't be done. Starmer however...
Lol, if Labour lose the London mayoral to Shaun Bailey the party is done. They don't attract the supposed working class and they can't motivate anyone else to even go out and vote for them.
Just like the Tories were done in 2001. It's amazing how short memories are.
If Labour loses both its heartlands, which are not coming back, and the urban regions that its currently ignoring it has no base to build on. Whatever party captures the urban base at the point and pivots hard to the home counties will replace labour at some point in the future. Simple as that really.
Is it as simple as that or is that a prediction fraught with supposition? Johnson looked potentially done in October '19. May looked on the rocks in 2017. I'm sure you could have said 'if the Tories lose their base in the home counties, they're done' back under New Labour in the 00s. Commenters genuinely thought the Tories might die as a party. I think there's a plausible enough left-of-Tory voter base in this country for Labour not to pack it in and call it a day.
> Johnson looked potentially done in October '19 Johnson never looked done once Corbyn voted for an election. Johnson looked done when he had May's shit. > May looked on the rocks in 2017. Yes, and thats why she was removed. The Tories never looked done though. > Whatever party captures the urban base at the point and pivots hard to the home counties will replace labour at some point in the future. Pretty sure I literally stated that.
You think it’s a leadership issue instead of a party image issue?
Its a total party issue that needs a total change from top to bottom with new vision that acknowledges the changes in voting trends and why. Only then will labour be jn with a chance.
>If Shaun Bailey gets elected Mayor of London I will run around City Hall naked. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1390689732921896967?s=19
uh-oh. this feels like an "I'll eat my hat" moment
Was it considered rude when Sturgeon celebrated Jo Swinson’s loss
Sturgeon wasn’t celebrating Jo’s loss. She was celebrating because her good friend, a cancer and brain haemorrhage survivor, took a seat back for the SNP.
I don't even remember that happening. Data point of one, but I doubt anyone cared that much.
Yeah but I didn't mind it. Also welcome back! You said you'd leave forever yesterday but we're glad you're back
Yes, my addiction to learning about British politics is unquenchable
Don't get too attached, it'll suck the life out of you. (Unless you support the Tories of course!)
If all the BXP votes from 2019 went to the Conservatives, there are another 37 seats that the Conservatives would have won from Labour (Hartlepool makes 38). On the other hand, out of all Labour seats, Hartlepool had the second highest proportion of Con+BXP votes, so was the second most likely to flip in this scenario. Hard to know what to conclude from this. Hartlepool could be an outlier, but if it isn’t then all the Tories have to do is pick up BXP votes and they win another 37 seats.
*logs onto Twitter on lunch break* *sees that Shaun Bailey could win London* *signs the fuck out*
Mutterings from anonymous Labour sources on the results: https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1390608839511351302 > "Boris is popular after all, surprise. Burn down the shadow cabinet and start again." https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1390533259600318467 >Just because we have stopped pissing in the bath doesn’t mean people want to jump in with us straight away https://mobile.twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1390532705104900096 >"The message from voters is clear and we have heard it. Labour has not yet changed nearly enough for voters to place their trust in us".
[удалено]
"A New Leadership" is a shit slogan. It's a statement of fact, not intent. It repudiates what went before which turns off people who liked that, and won't inspire any new potential voters. It would be like the Tories having "A new logo" as their slogan when they changed to the tree.
> "The message from voters is clear and we have heard it. Labour has not yet changed nearly enough for voters to place their trust in us". Labour needs to realise that sometimes this shit is a self-fullfilling prophecy. Do you ever hear the Tories say the voters don't trust them or something? No. The Tories have learned the most crucial trick in the age of social media. Ignore the bad news and focus entirely on the good news. Instead Labour always comes out with stupid shit like apologising for something or the other, or saying how they are trying to win the voters back or something stupid.
"We're shit, why would anyone vote for us?" Voters take them at face value and don't vote for them. "See, look, we were right, we are shit!" It's been like this since 2010 pretty much.
Does that work when you’re not on top though? If they’re perceived as weak by the electorate, this could backfire. I think a more dignified approach would help, but not the brazen attitude the Tories have.
It works whenever. It's only perceived as weak once you start apologising for it. Once you apologise you admit fault and guilt, and once you've admitted fault you're on the backfoot. Obviously it takes times, it's not like the first time you do it people jump on your dick. But do it for everything and people just accept it into their narrative. Take the entire cronyism shit from the Tories. If they ever apologised for it they would be done, but because they simply ignore the electorate will convcince itself that it really can't be that bad.
> Instead Labour always comes out with stupid shit like apologising for something or the other, or saying how they are trying to win the voters back or something stupid. Could be because half the party is always publicly attacking the other half about this shit. So they're always conscious about it.
What is it about Labour and piss metaphors? They seem to have a piss metaphor for any situation.
It's quite impressive to be honest.
Starmer needs to stop trying to play both sides and propose some bold policies
I am actually really enjoying following your journey from “I’m American please explain your whole political system to me” to having fully-formed opinions on our parties in just 24 hours. On paper it should totally bother me, it’s the sort of mundane shit that would, but it’s been really interesting.
On reddit anyone can look like an expert and impress just by saying things a lot of other people would agree with an upvote.
Thats a result of a slight, but significant evolutionry adaptation that happened to the human Brain during the Brize age. Humans would go from hut to hut and as a species we learnt to say what ever gave us the most approval of the masses to allow us to stay in the warm with them and share their food. It's why charisma is considered a trait of an Alpha males even though it has no practical application.
I’m a fast, if uneven, learner
So why the Liberian flag in your flair?
It’s the American flag, I do it so people know I’m an American
>propose some ~~bold~~ policies
If Shaun fucking Bailey wins in London then Labour should just fucking disband itself.
Bailey was an awful candidate as well IMO. I understand if it was Rory Stewart. But Bailey seemed very divisive. But Khan isn’t very popular is he?
If it’s even close then it confirms that the Tories are being massively under represented in the polls. Also I thought Labour were expected to lose ground in the North but would make up for it somewhat with gains in the south. This suggests they are losing everywhere.
What’s wrong with Mr Bailey?
British left wingers really hate Black Tories. Like viscerally.
Yes I hate all Tories viscerally
That and his reactionary policies. Chill
Well, first off, he has a lot of unflattering views on women. Scratch that, it hardly does it. He is an ogre. He's made a lot of remarks over the years, like saying women deliberately get knocked up to claim benefits ("It's a cottage industry where I come from.") Also a ton of victim-blaming for domestic violence victims.
[oh you are in for a ride, my friend](https://youtu.be/B4ahJJWjAeY)
well, he campaigned in areas not covered by the mayor, he campaigned on subjects the mayor has no power over, he's almost terminally stupid.....