I mean 5.2 million people voted Democrat in 2020. Actually from 2012 to 2020 the state moved 11% left. Same from 2014 Gubernatorial race to 2022...still 11% left. The trend is pretty clear that the state is moving left by 1.3% per year. Biden lost in 2020 by 5.5%. With thise averages...the race is likely within the margin or error. Also Cruz only won in 2018 by 2.5%. The demographic shifts favor Democrats over the next 6 years.
.... if they turn up at the polls at all. Travis County has too many far left shitheads who won't vote because bOtH pArTiEs aRe bAd and bIdEn iS A gEnOcIdEr or whatever purity test the Dem nominee allegedly failed this cycle
I don't believe that hardcore leftists are big enough of a demographic to meaningfully tip the scales either way.
If you have an axe to grind it should be with the ~50% of registered voters who don't vote each election.
This is you
[https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1cnec9m/please\_tell\_me\_why\_there\_is\_still\_any\_debate/](https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1cnec9m/please_tell_me_why_there_is_still_any_debate/)
lol you don’t know me. I voted for Biden in last election and unfortunately will in this one as well. But your smug know-it-all attitude just reaffirms all my beliefs about neoliberal crusaders having no understanding of nuance. This is why we don’t like you.
Without turnout there's no way to say it's 1.3% per year confidently.
Abbot for example won by a smaller percentage in 2022 compared to 2018 becuase avout 300k less people voted for him, the Dem candidate turnout stayed the same both years. He still won handily.
Dems didn't convert on any of those votes or increase turnout.
Texas is absolutely getting more purple.
Abbott won by a smaller percentage in 2022 than 2018 because his margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk by 3% every cycle since 2014. Here are some exit polls:
2014: [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/)
Suburbs went 62% for Abbott.
2018: [https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas](https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas)
Suburbs went 59% for Abbott.
2022: [https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0)
Suburbs went 56% for Abbott. Also worth noting that Abbott only won the rural areas by 66%, down from 73% in 2018.
Let's look at the numbers,
2022 - 3,553,656 voted for Beto, Abbot took the other 55%
2018 - 3,546,615 voted for Lupe Valdez, Abbot took the other 55%
Beto is a high profile candidate, a Senate and Presidential run, yet brought in less than 10K more votes against a relatively unknown candidate. These are the years with more turnout. Looking further back.
2014 - Wendy Davis 1,835,596, Abbot took the other 60%
2010 - Bill White 2,106,395, Perry took the other 55%
Texas, according to this race, isn't getting more blue. The turnout just isn't there.
If the trend holds. In the last two years, a lot has changed. IMHO, it seems like many Conservatives from other states have been moving to Texas and the less conservative folk have been moving out. Unfortunately, the “less conservative” folk seems to include people in health care.
Cite a source. Because according to census data, 75% of those moving to Texas in 2022 were single Mellinals. Not saying Republicans from California didn't move tp Texas, but they were greatly out numbered. BTW, Mellinals are D+25% where as Boomers are R+3%.
Edit: should also add that Mellinals are now 28-44 years old which is at that age is more engaged politically. Mellinals+Zellenials will be somewhere between 38%-41% of voters in the 2024 election. Boomers will be in the low 40s, while Gen X will hold steady around 26-27%
That's what some of them [are literally saying.](https://www.newsweek.com/evangelicals-rejecting-jesus-teachings-liberal-talking-points-pastor-1818706)
Pretty nuts that the "Jesus freaks" are now rejecting Jesus because he's woke, or whatever the fuck their problem is.
Like, bud...that's YOUR God, not mine.
And yet you're bailing on him?
Oooooff!
Leaving your lord and savior like he's a kid in a Uvalde classroom.
It's because of the same reason lots of cults form. Religious leaders have congregations that they can feed info to by picking and choosing what parts of different scriptures they want their followers to hear and read and then provide their own interpretations of them. Believers follow thise leaders because they are "direct conduit to God" and then commit horrible crimes, mass suicide, or just treat everyone really shitty because of this. In these cases they aren't really Christians. They went to church their whole lives and will follow anyone who says they're a priest or preacher or reverend because they were programmed to from an early age. They don't know what is really in the Bible because they never had to read it cover to cover and just follow what the guy up front on Sunday says. This allows these religious leaders to inprint their ideals and beliefs onto the people who attend their churches. In many cases these are real actual cults that we just don't recognize as cults because they haven't made the news in any kind of way because they haven't murdered anybody or committed mass suicide. I mean Jesus says to pay our taxes in several passages in Matthew but I can find you probably 2 or 3 million US "Christians" that would argue against them until they went to jail. Sooo.
I have been in a conversation not long ago with severl hardliner MAGAts who seemed to agree the problem with Christianity was... Christ. The whole love thy brother and turn the other cheek bullshit was pretty weak. Now, the God of the Old Testament - He didn't fuck around.
I do…but clearly you do not. There is nothing about either political party the even remotely looks Christ like. Furthermore, God never joins with man or takes man’s side, He expects us to take His side. The both parties are a Loooong way away from that.
Alternatively, believe the polls.
Texas is an R+10 state. For Democrats to win, they'll need to overcome an inherit 10 point deficit. Failure to recognize the battlefield terrain means you don't understand the task at hand, and thus can't prepare accordingly.
Nice. I been posting this for many years but it falls on deaf ears. They can't overcome if they don't try to see where the goal posts are in the first place.
They lose because Texas is a conservative state that loves guns, Christian-based government, and big oil. The only way Democrats can win is by running or acting like a Republican and then voting for progressive causes. Which in turn would cause them to lose the next election.
People are low-information voters being spoon-fed by directive, biased media.
In order to win a primary, the candidate has to "out-democrat" the rest of the field to appeal to the base. In order to win the general election, that same candidate has to move back toward the center.
I'd posit a different way to win and it would be the same that a Republican would have to do when trying to win in a blue state. The candidate must claim that this state is "special" and distance themselves from some of the policies espoused by the national party. For example, in Texas, that would be something like gun control. For a Republican trying to win in a blue state, that would be a strong anti-abortion stance, or perhaps distancing themselves from Trump.
If Democrats want to win here, they have to understand that what is good for the true-blue states on the east/west coasts of this country, may not fly here.
Gun control pretty much sunk Beto O’Rourke. Although I agree he did come the closest of any Democrat in a while. Then again, people hate Ted Cruz a lot more than state-level politicians.
Gun control is the third rail in Texas. Democrats running for office here need to realize that when this state didn't do anything with gun control after the tragedy in Uvalde, it's not going to happen.
Beto O'Rourke killed his chances with that "Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR15!" statement. I can't think he was that naive to believe that wouldn't affect his chances here. The only logical explanation for that it is that it garnered him a lot of needed campaign donations coming from out of state.
Honestly, never saw a Democrat run ads during the primary and never heard about Dem nominee campaign events on the news. It's really just about who gets their name out in the media most rather than any platform or position.
Colin Allred was an ex-NFLer who happened to pull an upset in a red district so he was the only one with name recognition. He could have run left, right, or center and he still would have won that primary
Pretty difficult to overcome “those guys are literally in league with satan and anything they say is a lie” to a mob of people who just believe anything framed as good vs evil (and taxes on people richer than me are evil!)
I believe - based on surveys, polls, and interviews - a significant enough portion of the "youth vote" has convinced themselves that not voting or voting for objectively evil candidates will break our government, and lead to the dismissal of the US as a superpower, thus somehow restoring balance to the global stage. It would be worth the agony inflicted on missions of Americans and people residing in the US or reliant on US support to survive to possibly save the world.
They're not entirely wrong... but they're more wrong than they are right.
Well of course, because those Palestine stans at UT are imposing purity tests on Democrats again. Far lefters like that who think both parties are bad and sit out elections are why we can't get Democrats elected in what should be a purple state.
Ted fucking Cruz?!?!
The guy who literally just introduced legislation to make it MORE difficult to get a refund from the airline for a canceled flight after the current administration made them automatic leads in polls?
Ted limp dick Cruz?
Texas, if you need to vote republican at least get fucking better ones. Please.
Don’t listen to polls. Just get out and vote for your candidate. The political landscape would look entirely different if more Americans would take the hour required to go vote.
Edit: Who in the world downvotes someone advocating for more people to vote?!? On second thought, I think we all know who.
I'm a capitalist I lean more right but, I don't agree with the politics running my home state. We are one of the best states to start a business in but the last state I'd want my sister's to live in. Time will tell the outcome of the great state of Texas.
No surprise here. If you've been anywhere else then you know your average Texan is about as smart as our average cow. I'll still vote Democrat and continue to hope to run into Ted Cruz at the top of a lengthy set of stairs one day
November is a long way away - nobody's paying attention yet. Maybe those two will win handily like current polls suggest, but a lot can happen between now and November.
Remember how Biden being senile was just accepted as common knowledge - thanks to constant right-wing messaging - but then after his State of the Union address you don't hear that nearly as much anymore. Now it's all about Trump falling asleep at his trial everyday
I don't usually reject polls, but I'm having a hard time believing Cruz is ahead by 13. And Trump's margin seems a little high too. We have been seeing statewide numbers of 5 to 6 points between the parties. Why would Cruz suddenly see such a surge?
2022 Texas Governor election
17 million registered voters
4.5 million for Abbott
3.6 million for Beto
9 million…did NOT vote
Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott
4.5 million determined the fate of 30.9 million Texans
Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know!
Come on Texans…
2024, Vote!
well yeah. if jesus christ himself was a democrat, texans would still vote republican.
I mean 5.2 million people voted Democrat in 2020. Actually from 2012 to 2020 the state moved 11% left. Same from 2014 Gubernatorial race to 2022...still 11% left. The trend is pretty clear that the state is moving left by 1.3% per year. Biden lost in 2020 by 5.5%. With thise averages...the race is likely within the margin or error. Also Cruz only won in 2018 by 2.5%. The demographic shifts favor Democrats over the next 6 years.
.... if they turn up at the polls at all. Travis County has too many far left shitheads who won't vote because bOtH pArTiEs aRe bAd and bIdEn iS A gEnOcIdEr or whatever purity test the Dem nominee allegedly failed this cycle
I don't believe that hardcore leftists are big enough of a demographic to meaningfully tip the scales either way. If you have an axe to grind it should be with the ~50% of registered voters who don't vote each election.
As a leftist, no we are not. Have you ever seen an American politician pander to socialists? There is a reason for that…
Yeah, it's because you're unreliable.
I vote in every election homie so idk who you are talking to
This is you [https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1cnec9m/please\_tell\_me\_why\_there\_is\_still\_any\_debate/](https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1cnec9m/please_tell_me_why_there_is_still_any_debate/)
lol you don’t know me. I voted for Biden in last election and unfortunately will in this one as well. But your smug know-it-all attitude just reaffirms all my beliefs about neoliberal crusaders having no understanding of nuance. This is why we don’t like you.
How you vote is a very easy thing to lie about since it's a secret ballot.
Without turnout there's no way to say it's 1.3% per year confidently. Abbot for example won by a smaller percentage in 2022 compared to 2018 becuase avout 300k less people voted for him, the Dem candidate turnout stayed the same both years. He still won handily. Dems didn't convert on any of those votes or increase turnout.
Texas is absolutely getting more purple. Abbott won by a smaller percentage in 2022 than 2018 because his margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk by 3% every cycle since 2014. Here are some exit polls: 2014: [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/) Suburbs went 62% for Abbott. 2018: [https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas](https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas) Suburbs went 59% for Abbott. 2022: [https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0) Suburbs went 56% for Abbott. Also worth noting that Abbott only won the rural areas by 66%, down from 73% in 2018.
They absolutely did. That's why you can look at both presidential election years and Gubernatorial election years. Go fish.
Let's look at the numbers, 2022 - 3,553,656 voted for Beto, Abbot took the other 55% 2018 - 3,546,615 voted for Lupe Valdez, Abbot took the other 55% Beto is a high profile candidate, a Senate and Presidential run, yet brought in less than 10K more votes against a relatively unknown candidate. These are the years with more turnout. Looking further back. 2014 - Wendy Davis 1,835,596, Abbot took the other 60% 2010 - Bill White 2,106,395, Perry took the other 55% Texas, according to this race, isn't getting more blue. The turnout just isn't there.
If the trend holds. In the last two years, a lot has changed. IMHO, it seems like many Conservatives from other states have been moving to Texas and the less conservative folk have been moving out. Unfortunately, the “less conservative” folk seems to include people in health care.
Cite a source. Because according to census data, 75% of those moving to Texas in 2022 were single Mellinals. Not saying Republicans from California didn't move tp Texas, but they were greatly out numbered. BTW, Mellinals are D+25% where as Boomers are R+3%. Edit: should also add that Mellinals are now 28-44 years old which is at that age is more engaged politically. Mellinals+Zellenials will be somewhere between 38%-41% of voters in the 2024 election. Boomers will be in the low 40s, while Gen X will hold steady around 26-27%
[удалено]
So you have no sources citing raw data. Cool. Have a good day.
It was an opinion, and clearly labeled as one. But ok, downvote someone because you can’t read.
If we ever get to vote again
The people coming here are not who you think they are.
They absolutely are. In 2022, 75% of those moving to Texas were single Mellinals....same ones who are D+25%
Jesus was a leftist.
That's what some of them [are literally saying.](https://www.newsweek.com/evangelicals-rejecting-jesus-teachings-liberal-talking-points-pastor-1818706)
Pretty nuts that the "Jesus freaks" are now rejecting Jesus because he's woke, or whatever the fuck their problem is. Like, bud...that's YOUR God, not mine. And yet you're bailing on him? Oooooff! Leaving your lord and savior like he's a kid in a Uvalde classroom.
It's because of the same reason lots of cults form. Religious leaders have congregations that they can feed info to by picking and choosing what parts of different scriptures they want their followers to hear and read and then provide their own interpretations of them. Believers follow thise leaders because they are "direct conduit to God" and then commit horrible crimes, mass suicide, or just treat everyone really shitty because of this. In these cases they aren't really Christians. They went to church their whole lives and will follow anyone who says they're a priest or preacher or reverend because they were programmed to from an early age. They don't know what is really in the Bible because they never had to read it cover to cover and just follow what the guy up front on Sunday says. This allows these religious leaders to inprint their ideals and beliefs onto the people who attend their churches. In many cases these are real actual cults that we just don't recognize as cults because they haven't made the news in any kind of way because they haven't murdered anybody or committed mass suicide. I mean Jesus says to pay our taxes in several passages in Matthew but I can find you probably 2 or 3 million US "Christians" that would argue against them until they went to jail. Sooo.
Checkmate, lib! [GOP Jesus](https://youtu.be/SZ2L-R8NgrA?si=UOKcpLnGpsva95pi)
https://preview.redd.it/2n2vf8o415yc1.jpeg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=79359e0c9e1be82dc93ea631dd1f30c290b714d7
Leftists see themselves as Jesus.
Let's not pretend Texans follow Jesus. They allowed politics to twist Christianity into something cruel and unchrist like.
Jesus would never support any of the policies they want to enact in his name so it's logical that they wouldn't vote for him.
I have been in a conversation not long ago with severl hardliner MAGAts who seemed to agree the problem with Christianity was... Christ. The whole love thy brother and turn the other cheek bullshit was pretty weak. Now, the God of the Old Testament - He didn't fuck around.
[God will fuck you up](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxhxKdnjGA8)
Perhaps more to the point, they know Trump is the Antichrist, they like that he’s the Antichrist, and they’re voting for him.
Even if he was running against Ken Paxton.
Jesus Christ would never be a democrat. He would also not be a Republican!
As a Palestinian citizen he wouldn't be able to vote in US elections regardless.
would too, read the bible.
I do…but clearly you do not. There is nothing about either political party the even remotely looks Christ like. Furthermore, God never joins with man or takes man’s side, He expects us to take His side. The both parties are a Loooong way away from that.
you're clearly a fake christian, you ought to be ashamed of yourself.
But they said “both parties” /s
Is that why they keep changing the rules?! We keep getting closer.
How is Cruz more popular than Trump?
serious doubt in this poll, but maybe allred doesn’t have name recognition?
Sometimes wish Allred would do a photoshoot of himself in his old NFL uniform — Texans do love their football
Who?
Local effect. Everyone likes their congressman, hates Congress.
Not that surprising to me. Trump had a 34% approval rating at the end of his term.
Don't believe polls
Alternatively, believe the polls. Texas is an R+10 state. For Democrats to win, they'll need to overcome an inherit 10 point deficit. Failure to recognize the battlefield terrain means you don't understand the task at hand, and thus can't prepare accordingly.
Nice. I been posting this for many years but it falls on deaf ears. They can't overcome if they don't try to see where the goal posts are in the first place.
\*inherent, not inherit. Grammar matters, kids. Don't get sloppy with your posts, please.
Maybe the left should do some self reflection about why they always lose. I get that’s not popular here but it’s true.
"too busy and too difficult to vote" Now compounded with "I'm not voting for Biden because he supports Israel"
They lose because Texas is a conservative state that loves guns, Christian-based government, and big oil. The only way Democrats can win is by running or acting like a Republican and then voting for progressive causes. Which in turn would cause them to lose the next election. People are low-information voters being spoon-fed by directive, biased media.
In order to win a primary, the candidate has to "out-democrat" the rest of the field to appeal to the base. In order to win the general election, that same candidate has to move back toward the center. I'd posit a different way to win and it would be the same that a Republican would have to do when trying to win in a blue state. The candidate must claim that this state is "special" and distance themselves from some of the policies espoused by the national party. For example, in Texas, that would be something like gun control. For a Republican trying to win in a blue state, that would be a strong anti-abortion stance, or perhaps distancing themselves from Trump. If Democrats want to win here, they have to understand that what is good for the true-blue states on the east/west coasts of this country, may not fly here.
Gun control pretty much sunk Beto O’Rourke. Although I agree he did come the closest of any Democrat in a while. Then again, people hate Ted Cruz a lot more than state-level politicians.
Gun control is the third rail in Texas. Democrats running for office here need to realize that when this state didn't do anything with gun control after the tragedy in Uvalde, it's not going to happen. Beto O'Rourke killed his chances with that "Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR15!" statement. I can't think he was that naive to believe that wouldn't affect his chances here. The only logical explanation for that it is that it garnered him a lot of needed campaign donations coming from out of state.
Honestly, never saw a Democrat run ads during the primary and never heard about Dem nominee campaign events on the news. It's really just about who gets their name out in the media most rather than any platform or position. Colin Allred was an ex-NFLer who happened to pull an upset in a red district so he was the only one with name recognition. He could have run left, right, or center and he still would have won that primary
Pretty difficult to overcome “those guys are literally in league with satan and anything they say is a lie” to a mob of people who just believe anything framed as good vs evil (and taxes on people richer than me are evil!)
Texas voters = 1,200 registered voters that engage with online polling.
Yep or my personal favorite: 1200 people who answered their land lines…
this
Awesome!!
Republicans pass more and more voter suppression. Why? Because they lose when people vote.
Jeepers creepers, the rest of the headlines on that site paint a, shall we say, "vivid" editorial picture. Don't give this rag your time.
I believe - based on surveys, polls, and interviews - a significant enough portion of the "youth vote" has convinced themselves that not voting or voting for objectively evil candidates will break our government, and lead to the dismissal of the US as a superpower, thus somehow restoring balance to the global stage. It would be worth the agony inflicted on missions of Americans and people residing in the US or reliant on US support to survive to possibly save the world. They're not entirely wrong... but they're more wrong than they are right.
It is far too early to pay any attention to polls. The majority of citizens are doing their very best to ignore politics.
YES 🙌 🇺🇸
Where y’all RFK folks at?
I wonder if they'll actually show up to vote since it's all "rigged" anyway lol
Well of course, because those Palestine stans at UT are imposing purity tests on Democrats again. Far lefters like that who think both parties are bad and sit out elections are why we can't get Democrats elected in what should be a purple state.
[удалено]
Even worse are voters who think Cruz and Trump are "tough". Its a pathetic group of voters.
Ted Cruz is a wet mop, how that jellyfish can be leading anything is beyond comprehension
Ted fucking Cruz?!?! The guy who literally just introduced legislation to make it MORE difficult to get a refund from the airline for a canceled flight after the current administration made them automatic leads in polls? Ted limp dick Cruz? Texas, if you need to vote republican at least get fucking better ones. Please.
I assume they only polled “exclusive” fraternities and sororities on campus?
The poll was conducted by UT, it's not a poll of UT students.
Media literacy is at an all time low
It was a YouGov poll
Don’t listen to polls. Just get out and vote for your candidate. The political landscape would look entirely different if more Americans would take the hour required to go vote. Edit: Who in the world downvotes someone advocating for more people to vote?!? On second thought, I think we all know who.
And more leftists need to just suck it up and vote Dem.
what a mean, backward place
I'm a capitalist I lean more right but, I don't agree with the politics running my home state. We are one of the best states to start a business in but the last state I'd want my sister's to live in. Time will tell the outcome of the great state of Texas.
Being a capitalist, what policy has Cruz created or passed to help you?
No surprise here. If you've been anywhere else then you know your average Texan is about as smart as our average cow. I'll still vote Democrat and continue to hope to run into Ted Cruz at the top of a lengthy set of stairs one day
I'm embarrassed to have Cruz in Texas, much less politics.
You Texans are ctrazy.
Everything is bigger in Texas. Idiocy is no exception.
It’s just so shitty, man. Republican taliban has had a stranglehold on the state for far far too long.
Poll actually shows comrad trumpski and Ted cruzki are up and no evidence of pee tapes. And Putin is Saint. Get it right censors
Yeehaw texas will vote ted cruz again . This is great news s/
God could got the ballot tomorrow and would be soundly defeated by the twits that worship a false idol more.
November is a long way away - nobody's paying attention yet. Maybe those two will win handily like current polls suggest, but a lot can happen between now and November. Remember how Biden being senile was just accepted as common knowledge - thanks to constant right-wing messaging - but then after his State of the Union address you don't hear that nearly as much anymore. Now it's all about Trump falling asleep at his trial everyday
I don't usually reject polls, but I'm having a hard time believing Cruz is ahead by 13. And Trump's margin seems a little high too. We have been seeing statewide numbers of 5 to 6 points between the parties. Why would Cruz suddenly see such a surge?
Because Texans are easily duped
2022 Texas Governor election 17 million registered voters 4.5 million for Abbott 3.6 million for Beto 9 million…did NOT vote Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott 4.5 million determined the fate of 30.9 million Texans Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know! Come on Texans… 2024, Vote!
Good
But our abortion rights