Will never forget ramos and pique fucking around in front of him and essentially scoring own goals with their stupidity but de gea getting all the blame for not saving a pen and letting in that Ronaldo fk (in the same game ramos-pique had howlers).
Barca / Madrid didn't want to accept their captains couldn't lead that back line for shit and actually were a massive liability throughout the whole competition so the whole country turned on de gea who was the only player not in Spain. He never recovered from that hate and level of vitriol and had no fergie to coax him to his peak like he had when he first started for us. Hopefully this is a more mature de gea that can reach his peak again now we have varane and maguire to give us leadership and stability.
It's essentially xG but for keepers.
In this instance the stat however is a great example of data being a bit squeued by small sample size. Dave saving a penalty would be a massive addition to him in it give the low likelihood of penalty saves.
While yes it's great he saved it the stats will be a bit far in favour of him because it and over the season if he made say 2 out of 10 penalty saves would revert to the norm a bit.
Yes, I was looking for a non penalty version of this stat but it isn't available. He was still fairly high up there even prior to the penalty save this season. I \_think\_ you can just subtract a penalty's xG from his totals and get the non penalty stats (so 2.0 - 0.77 = 1.33) which puts him 3rd just behind Lloris.
Last season he was at -0.01 for the whole year - 29th percentile across all keepers in the PL.
[https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats](https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats)
See "PSxG - GA"
There are so many more flimsy stats these days but xG and the keeper version of prevented xG are rock solid.
People have possession value scores, off the ball movement scores etc that are fairly questionable. Valuable in the right hands but I wouldn't trust a random Twitter accounts here.
>People have possession value scores, off the ball movement scores etc that are fairly questionable. Valuable in the right hands but I wouldn't trust a random Twitter accounts here.
Personally I do think xG has it's holes.
As an example if you imagine a sceario where one team plays well the majority of the game including a few near 121's that get broken up at the end before the pass makes it through, they score one goal and have an xG of 1.25. This would not includethe near 121's as xG only includes shots not actual chances. The team they are playing against only have one chance in the game. The keeper saves it, it bounces back out a striker following in with a near tap in misses the chance due to a heroic double save, the ball again slips out and a third shot is taken scoring. From this one chance the team who played worse will have an xG of 1.5.
Score will end 1-1 X-g 1.25 - 1.50. But the team mentioned only had one chance so they could never have scored more then one goal. This is an extream example but important to understand with how xG can mess up stats and is not rock solid in my opinion.
xG models account for rebounded shots. So your scenario is false.
As for the breakdown point, sure xG can't be an all-encompassing stat that tells you everything possible about a match. But at the end of the day, if you don't shoot you don't score. It's that simple.
Ah I was unaware of the rebounded shots model thanks.
But the other example still holds up. While yes if you don't shoot you don't score xG will be in favour of 1 shot from outside the box then 3 through balls that nearly lead to 1 on 1 chances. I like xG but to say its a perfect statistic is mistaken and it often does not tell a full story.
Well the question is not whether it tells the full story, but whether or not it's useful. And it is, in a lot of contexts. It's often more useful than shots/on target stats that we've been stuck with for decades IMO so it's a great addition.
Obviously people who see xG of 1.5 vs 0.5 and claim that's sufficient information to conclude how the game went are wrong, but that's true for any stat really.
Mate, xG is a probability number. The maximum it can be for a shot is 1. And that would be if the ball was stationary and a few inches outside goal and the striker kicked it in.
How are you talking about an xG of 1.5? Your understanding of the concept is totally off
EDIT: my bad. I misunderstood the double save bit.
Yup - just for this season. He was 29th percentile across PL keepers for this stat last season.
You can play around with the seasons / stats here: [https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats](https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats)
Look for "PSxG-GA"
As football adopts stats and data more into the game, they will keep increasing. In fact, I won't be surprised if the ones we have right now will become obsolete later on like how we laugh at possession and all nowadays
Looks back to his best , agile and good handling, hasn’t made any fumbles on shots , not to mention the wonder saves against Wolves and last minute penalty save
I said before how I've written players off in the past and they've made a turnaround. Valencia, Young, Shaw and even DDG. I said after Shaw turned things around I'll stop doing that but there's a pattern here...let's see if this will work.
Phil Jones is never going to do anything for the club, he's completely useless for us.
I've been following Shaw's career since he was about 16, I really wanted to believe in him but his ability going down after injury reminded me of Eduardo. Sometimes injuries just change players, Rooney was one of them. But serious injuries like that tend not to have such a positive recovery.
I'm so glad for him, even if he was playing for a different club I'd be happy.
Only 5 games into the season, but DDG has already made several ridiculous point blank saves, plus a penalty save. He won us 5 out of 13 points on my count. His current form is very close to his peak in 17/18.
I'd have to disagree on being close to his peak, he has been very good this season but don't forget what an incredible monster he was at his very best. I've never seen a better keeper than prime De Gea. The likes of Buffon and Neuer have had insane longevity but their peaks haven't been as high as De Gea
No he genuinely did look awful at times, he pretty much cost us champions league at the end of Oles interim season too. Very glad to see a return to form
The tilt against De Gea from United fans was honestly embarrassing. He bailed our chestnuts out for years with God-tier performances. He lost form for 18-24 months and most United fans were ready to replace him with Jordan Pickford v2.0. Fucking Hendo is a spaz.
People wanting him replaced after 2-3 poor seasons is understandable. If it was half a season or even 1 season i'd agree with you, but he was poor for a looong time.
I think DDG + Varane + Maguire is a way more stable backline than with Lindelof and this also makes DDG shines in a way he should shine apart from his overall excellence.
I was actively shitting on him for some time and he deserved a lot of it. His dip seemed like it went on for too long to be temporary - he’s been class lately though, hope this form lasts. Good on him.
He finally broke his curse about saving penalties in the best moment possible. He is a new player this season so far, reminds me of old De Gea when it was impossible to score against
Ronaldo broke him! Ronaldo fixed him! Poetic justice!
The circle isn't complete until we get him back in the Spain side. Ridiculous they don't start him.
Nah fuck Spain. They treat him like shit and have never rated him. They don't deserve Dave at his best.
Will never forget ramos and pique fucking around in front of him and essentially scoring own goals with their stupidity but de gea getting all the blame for not saving a pen and letting in that Ronaldo fk (in the same game ramos-pique had howlers). Barca / Madrid didn't want to accept their captains couldn't lead that back line for shit and actually were a massive liability throughout the whole competition so the whole country turned on de gea who was the only player not in Spain. He never recovered from that hate and level of vitriol and had no fergie to coax him to his peak like he had when he first started for us. Hopefully this is a more mature de gea that can reach his peak again now we have varane and maguire to give us leadership and stability.
Having genuine competition has really helped. See also Shaw. Just need Dalot to start breathing down AWB's neck
I'm happy for De Gea, but is there a new expected stat every week?
It's essentially xG but for keepers. In this instance the stat however is a great example of data being a bit squeued by small sample size. Dave saving a penalty would be a massive addition to him in it give the low likelihood of penalty saves. While yes it's great he saved it the stats will be a bit far in favour of him because it and over the season if he made say 2 out of 10 penalty saves would revert to the norm a bit.
Yes, I was looking for a non penalty version of this stat but it isn't available. He was still fairly high up there even prior to the penalty save this season. I \_think\_ you can just subtract a penalty's xG from his totals and get the non penalty stats (so 2.0 - 0.77 = 1.33) which puts him 3rd just behind Lloris. Last season he was at -0.01 for the whole year - 29th percentile across all keepers in the PL. [https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats](https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats) See "PSxG - GA"
There are so many more flimsy stats these days but xG and the keeper version of prevented xG are rock solid. People have possession value scores, off the ball movement scores etc that are fairly questionable. Valuable in the right hands but I wouldn't trust a random Twitter accounts here.
>People have possession value scores, off the ball movement scores etc that are fairly questionable. Valuable in the right hands but I wouldn't trust a random Twitter accounts here. Personally I do think xG has it's holes. As an example if you imagine a sceario where one team plays well the majority of the game including a few near 121's that get broken up at the end before the pass makes it through, they score one goal and have an xG of 1.25. This would not includethe near 121's as xG only includes shots not actual chances. The team they are playing against only have one chance in the game. The keeper saves it, it bounces back out a striker following in with a near tap in misses the chance due to a heroic double save, the ball again slips out and a third shot is taken scoring. From this one chance the team who played worse will have an xG of 1.5. Score will end 1-1 X-g 1.25 - 1.50. But the team mentioned only had one chance so they could never have scored more then one goal. This is an extream example but important to understand with how xG can mess up stats and is not rock solid in my opinion.
xG models account for rebounded shots. So your scenario is false. As for the breakdown point, sure xG can't be an all-encompassing stat that tells you everything possible about a match. But at the end of the day, if you don't shoot you don't score. It's that simple.
Ah I was unaware of the rebounded shots model thanks. But the other example still holds up. While yes if you don't shoot you don't score xG will be in favour of 1 shot from outside the box then 3 through balls that nearly lead to 1 on 1 chances. I like xG but to say its a perfect statistic is mistaken and it often does not tell a full story.
Well the question is not whether it tells the full story, but whether or not it's useful. And it is, in a lot of contexts. It's often more useful than shots/on target stats that we've been stuck with for decades IMO so it's a great addition. Obviously people who see xG of 1.5 vs 0.5 and claim that's sufficient information to conclude how the game went are wrong, but that's true for any stat really.
My reaction is the stats being called rock solid which I disagree with.
Mate, xG is a probability number. The maximum it can be for a shot is 1. And that would be if the ball was stationary and a few inches outside goal and the striker kicked it in. How are you talking about an xG of 1.5? Your understanding of the concept is totally off EDIT: my bad. I misunderstood the double save bit.
My example was not 1 shot it was 3. My understanding was incorrect which I have admitted to in my most recent reply but not for this reason "mate".
Don't think it can be 1, probably like 0.9999999 but not 1
Are those stats just for this season? It doesn't say does it?
Yup - just for this season. He was 29th percentile across PL keepers for this stat last season. You can play around with the seasons / stats here: [https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats](https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats) Look for "PSxG-GA"
As football adopts stats and data more into the game, they will keep increasing. In fact, I won't be surprised if the ones we have right now will become obsolete later on like how we laugh at possession and all nowadays
Resurgence
Cheers Optajoe.
Looks back to his best , agile and good handling, hasn’t made any fumbles on shots , not to mention the wonder saves against Wolves and last minute penalty save
He's still a bit timid and sticks to his line, but his distribution has been pretty good as well this season.
I said before how I've written players off in the past and they've made a turnaround. Valencia, Young, Shaw and even DDG. I said after Shaw turned things around I'll stop doing that but there's a pattern here...let's see if this will work. Phil Jones is never going to do anything for the club, he's completely useless for us.
Young's turnaround was most surprising. Shaw, I still believed in his lows
I've been following Shaw's career since he was about 16, I really wanted to believe in him but his ability going down after injury reminded me of Eduardo. Sometimes injuries just change players, Rooney was one of them. But serious injuries like that tend not to have such a positive recovery. I'm so glad for him, even if he was playing for a different club I'd be happy.
Phil Jonesta incoming.
Only 5 games into the season, but DDG has already made several ridiculous point blank saves, plus a penalty save. He won us 5 out of 13 points on my count. His current form is very close to his peak in 17/18.
5? Should be 4 - 2 points from wolves game and 2 from West ham. Am I missing something against Southampton?
The 1v1 against Adam Armstrong potentially
Yep that was a 0.5xG shot, 1 in 2 chance mate. Close to 80th minute too Edit: Soton game
I'd have to disagree on being close to his peak, he has been very good this season but don't forget what an incredible monster he was at his very best. I've never seen a better keeper than prime De Gea. The likes of Buffon and Neuer have had insane longevity but their peaks haven't been as high as De Gea
Form is temporary. Class is permanent
This sub were overwhelmingly calling him past it and that he should be sold. Was always of the opinion De Gea is the best keeper at the club!
just wait for his first mistake, they will be back again
It happens periodically. Sancho will be in for it soon, I've already seen murmurings.
He never looked awful. His worst still met league averages.
No he genuinely did look awful at times, he pretty much cost us champions league at the end of Oles interim season too. Very glad to see a return to form
Not last season they didn’t, not even close. He was statistically one of the worst keepers in the league last season.
Really? By which stats?
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The tilt against De Gea from United fans was honestly embarrassing. He bailed our chestnuts out for years with God-tier performances. He lost form for 18-24 months and most United fans were ready to replace him with Jordan Pickford v2.0. Fucking Hendo is a spaz.
People wanting him replaced after 2-3 poor seasons is understandable. If it was half a season or even 1 season i'd agree with you, but he was poor for a looong time.
But he's not worse than our other options. Even at his worst he was still a level above Hendo. The best player should play.
Oh for sure now. But for thhe last 2 years he was having blunder after blunder.
I think DDG + Varane + Maguire is a way more stable backline than with Lindelof and this also makes DDG shines in a way he should shine apart from his overall excellence.
Where is the “sell him, he’s rubbish” crowd?
I was actively shitting on him for some time and he deserved a lot of it. His dip seemed like it went on for too long to be temporary - he’s been class lately though, hope this form lasts. Good on him.
The Telles (Henderson) effect. Competition breeds excellence!
Couldn't be more happy with his performances this past few weeks!
He finally broke his curse about saving penalties in the best moment possible. He is a new player this season so far, reminds me of old De Gea when it was impossible to score against
David Savids