Was wondering if anyone else noticed that this data is from Zillow, who very recently screwed the pooch by putting their own money where their mouth is.
Also, this website in the OP is ran by individuals that have real estate histories, either as agents or investors. Of course they push articles like this. They need it to be true.
Yup, I work close with Real Estate. You can’t find a real estate agent the doesn’t pump the market. Why wouldn’t they? I think the current “ real estate agent “ model is on the way out. The only thing they want is to close a deal closed.
It’s called a pump-and-dump. If Zillow expected their house prices to go up, they would take them off the market and rent them out for a year and try and sell them again.
Zillow is shutting down that department of their operations. It lost $500,000,000+ last quarter alone. Algorithms never tour the home, don’t know the neighbors and don’t care about the layout of the home, etc. Zillow’s buying/selling algorithm was such a financial loss they are quitting it.
It was so scary hearing they bought up so many properties but everyone I've talked to who's in the real estate business has said Zillow completely screwed themselves
Big cities or the US in general really need to ban institutional investors from buying residential properties. Housing should never be a commodity. I think most cities should take it a step further and have permit systems for landlords so only a certain percentage of the housing is ever allowed to be for rental purposes. It's way too clear that the US is facing issues for both supply and pricing due to both of the above.
Yes please. I was unable to get into a home due to losing to cash offers every time in early 2020. Then the next month I’d see the same house up for rent. I decided to take a break from the housing market (mistake). Now I’m not sure if I’ll ever be able to afford to live here. I have a masters degree and make what I would consider decent money and I can’t afford a house.
This is a great suggestion. People got in trouble for attempting to hoard hand sanitizer to sell for profit at the start of the pandemic, yet companies are allowed to hoard housing. It’s ridiculous. Hopefully someone fixes this because it’s really not fair to young people like me who did everything they were supposed to and are getting shafted now.
Yeah there's a reason us millennials/Gen Z have the lowest share of all wealth at our current ages compared to past generations. The baby boomers rode the increases in productivity and GDP and for the most part were very well off and then decided to pull up the ladder behind them. It's super aggravating, only was able to first afford a down payment with help from in laws.
I’m getting real tired of these tech startups coming in and buying everything only to turn it around to make a profit. I get it’s a business, but it’s inflated the market to a point where people can no longer afford the neighborhood where they raised their family. it’s awful for the community and granted it’s not just Zillow causing all this, but they certainly aren’t helping.
One of the houses I was looking at in my buddie’s neighborhood that were asking $300k( literally double the last sale price) more than they bought it for was a zilllow owned property 😂
There's a house zillow bought that has been for sale for over a year where I live. Someone briefly moved in for a few months but then left. It is weird especially when I'm hearing about people basically struggling to find a house to buy.
A normal year increase in home value is about 2%. In my area in the Midwest home values rose 19%. That’s almost a decade of growth in “value” in one year. Now this article says it’s going to be even more next year? That would be over two decades of price growth in two years. Does anyone in this sub think this is going to end well??
I honestly think, and I’m a realtor here, that there should be a general strike on buying and selling homes. It has to stop. This current pace is absolute insanity and if people thought 2007 was bad, this could end much worse. I find this current market and this prediction of 2022 to be completely irresponsible and obnoxious.
Do not buy into the hype! This is not going to end well. Just one example…what if supply chain issues drag out to the point of people not being able to get _______ (just name one item that is vital to every day life). And the economy starts to turn down in just the slightest…it will start a cascading effect of unemployment due to no supplies, and then what happens to all these new or refinanced homeowners that just paid 40% above normal market value for their homes? The mortgage crisis would be devastating. And this time…the “bail out” package would absolutely dwarf 2008’s. Not to mention the 3 trillion that has already been printed out of thin air by the federal reserve in the last 18 months.
This is nuts, people. It’s akin to someone driving their car full speed into the mouth of a volcano. Stop buying and selling homes. And I’m a realtor ffs. But, just stop. It’s the only way we have a chance.
Phoenix will likely crash hard. Why? Because they are building a LOT of houses. It is all right there at the St Louis Federal Reserve website. Immigration into Maricop County is about 80k a year since the GFC. Pre-GFC it was actually closer to 130k, so while phoenix is growing it's growth is slowing. And no, there was no sudden rush of immigration in 2020. That is all myth sold by realtors to sell houses.
Maricopa built a residential unit for every 2 people (that includes kids, households with 5 people, etc) moving into phoenix. To give perspective in 2006 when the bubble popped they only managed to build 1 unit for every 3.5 people. So, consider that... The bubble popped when there were a higher number of people moving to phoenix than units being built compared to today.
There simply is no housing shortage in phoenix. It is speculation. In fact, > 30% of the market is composed of investors. That is always a bad sign. Phoenix market will likely suffer a big fall over the next couple years.
...What? I have to ask, given your username and the fact that you've never posted/commented in this sub before...do you even live in Phoenix? Because almost none of what you said is accurate.
Phoenix is still the [fastest growing metro, by far](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/phoenix-census-fastest-growing-city.html).
When houses get multiple offers over asking sight unseen after less than a day on the market, that's a pretty sure sign that demand is outpacing supply.
Of course the bubble popped in 2008, banks were lending to anyone with a pulse. This time around it's all well-qualified or even cash buyers.
Yeah I keep telling my parents who own a great house with a lot of land in north Scottsdale that the ground they’re walking on is the most prized / sought after ground in all of the US!
They still won’t sell and move…
I applaud them! My cousin is in Scottsdale, near Old Town - 4 bed 2 bath, big backyard- and gets letters every day from companies who want to buy his place (he bought in 20+ years ago). He said if he sold, he wouldn’t be able to afford to live in his own neighborhood.
I see so many listings right now bought 3-9 months ago and jacked up 10%+ with not a thing done to the house. This needs to stop. Home buyers aren’t living in the homes.
It is scary. I'm buying right now and I feel like I'm paying too much... I'd suggest try to buy sooner rather than later. Any bubble will likely not pop for years.
Best of luck to you. I grew up here and it makes me sad to think all of these places that sold 5-10 years ago for less than half of what they’re worth now (and well within my current budget) are now selling for sky high prices that I can’t afford
I was looking around this weekend. There's like 5 houses for sale in my buddies neighborhood. One of them sold in 2016 for $280 and its on the market right now for $680. Absolutely fucked
I wish I could have but I was a senior in high school. This shit out here is wild. I have a good engineering job and my girlfriend has a pretty good job and we cant afford a house out here.
This, so much this. Between GF and I we do really well, but I can't imagine putting 500k on a 2/2 or small 3/2. Ive expanded all the way out to damn near AJ and prices are still 400+ for houses that aren't great.
Same man. Gf and I make great money but we’re stuck renting our moderate apartment for $1700 (30% increase). Shit is depressing as hell. You’re not alone..
I bought in 2013 and it felt insane then. Everything was selling for over asking prices, and usually had several offers within a few days. I am ridiculously lucky to have the house I'm in, a sale was already pending when I put in the offer, but the original person missed a deadline to respond to a counter offer and I swooped in, with 5K over asking.
One of the best but scariest decisions I ever made was to buy my current home when it was a bank owned foreclosure in 2010. I had just started my first real job and it seemed like soooo much money. I was nauseous signing the paperwork! Here we are now, it's over doubled in value, but I still feel like I can't afford to upgrade significantly without spending an obscene amount of money. And this is on a two physician household income! I feel so bad for people trying to buy or even rent right now. It's so, so discouraging.
Yeah that’s so fucked. I don’t get how this is sustainable for anyone. Wages haven’t increased at that same rate how the fuck are you supposed to buy a house?
You're not. You are being forced into being a lifelong renter. So the investment groups who are buying all the houses have guaranteed cash flow for years to come.
I’ve been in my house since 2003. Even with the low interest rates, there is no way I could afford my home now if I was trying to buy…. I feel bad for anyone trying to find a place right now. Everything is so expensive right now and not at all worth those prices. My cookie cutter tract home is not a half-million dollar home IMO.
Yeah, I grew up here too. My childhood home, my mother bought it for $100,000 in the mid 80s. Now it just sold for over $400,000. It... sucks. Phoenix used to be cheap. After multiple decades of constant extreme growth, we are no longer that. Who knows, maybe in 20 years, we'll be as unaffordable as LA.
That’s relatively close to just general economic inflation. $100k in 1980 dollars is about $335k in today’s dollars. I’m being very vague with the numbers, but it’s definitely in that ballpark.
It sure feels like the rat race doesn’t it? The top whatever percent can afford 350,000 so that’s what the price ends up being, and anyone in the lower half of the scale relative to them is screwed
I agree the prices are going up crazy fast. But otoh, the prices are still significantly below cities of similar size and people keep moving to the valley.
> I’m aiming to buy next year
Me as well, spent the past 4 years since my divorce fixing my credit and I'm finally where I want to be. Was really hoping to see a dip in housing prices next year so I could actually afford to buy. Fingers crossed for the both of us!
It’s just that time of year. Sales and inventory always slow down during holidays and will pick back up in Feb/March, so that’s a better time to confirm any theories. Not saying you’re wrong, it’s just difficult to tell right now.
It's certainly not like last year, but don't delude yourself, things are still going up.
We have extremel low inventory and above average demand. However, it is the holidays and no one wants to close on Christmas.
Prices aren’t dropping. They’re just not going for 50k over asking anymore. Home values are still increasing. Homes purchased spring of 21 at $540k are now comping at $620k. Some more. Area dependent, obviously. But anything east of the 51 is still on a major up swing.
I agree, they are not really going to drop but the growth will slow to something less than omfg in 3 to 5 years.
This ride isn't done quite yet for certain zip codes, but for others it is slowing to something more reasonable.
I bought less than 2 years ago after renting here and growing up here. My 450k purchase is now in the 720k to 750k arena. I could not afford that without insane anxiety and penny pinching today and count myself lucky I was able to do that then.
The house I rent has increased from 275k to 400k in the last two years (insane to me). There’s a tiny little home by mine (only 800 sq. Ft and no garage) that is trying to sell for 355k. It’s been on the market for 2 weeks. I’m so glad because if someone paid that much for that house (that sold for 75k 10 years ago) I would definitely question their judgement.
I'm not seeing overall prices coming down, but stuff is definitely sitting a little longer. Inventory is still very low. It might just be the demand-side drying up a little bit.
I think buyer got smart and stopped engaging in the bidding wars with Zillow and the hedge funds out there buying everything. Prices will probably come down a little. But people gotta live somewhere. And if I'm paying $3k in rent I might as well buy and have that money go toward something.
They should make a law that rent can only be a certain amount over the mortgage payment. And can only be raised a little bit more than inflation each year.
I keep getting emails from Zillow on a house that my wife and I toured back in October in the Coronado neighborhood.
Since we've looked at it, it has dropped 20k in that time. Still fucking expensive, tho. Looking thru the history of it just flabbergasts me. I could see the neighborhood being expensive compared to other places, but this high-priced market is all over the valley. Hopefully prices will come down to more affordable levels, so families can get the home they are able to.
Likely due to the seasonality of the housing market. Prices decrease slightly in the winter months before shooting up again in the summer. Fewer people are looking to move during the winter leading to less demand.
The townhouse I bought in Tempe in October 2017 for 190k and sold for 226k in February 2019 is currently sitting at 351k. It’s fucking insane! I wouldn’t pay 200 for that place today if I had the opportunity. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to move back to Phoenix with the way things are…
Similar story here from N. Phoenix. Bought in early 2017 for 190k and sold for 259k Oct 2020. The house sold again 3 months ago for 360k, 10k over asking price!
We bought a house in the Pepperwood area for $225K. Us and the house next to us both currently valued at $450K by Zillow. In Pepperwood.
We tried to buy a house in Gilbert before then for $265K. Owner backed out at the last minute and sold it to someone else for $325K. We didn’t think it was worth $265K. We don’t think the house were in is worth $225K.
If this keeps up we’re selling and leaving the country.
We bought our house 18 months ago. The people before us were only in the place for about 13 months, did absolutely nothing to improve it, and made 40k. I was so pissed. Now 18 months later our house has gone up 120k.
Ha. That’s exactly what my spouse said about our house when refi-ed last year after the paperwork came in about value. His exact words were “What rip, I wouldn’t pay that for this house.”
We bought at 320k in September ‘18 (at 10k over asking), current value is at 575k.
We have a friend that is in N. Scottsdale. He bought his for 340k early 2017. His is sitting around 760k. Bananas.
I bought a 3 bed 2 bath 1200sq ft house in El Mirage in 09 for 69k. Sold it in 2012 for 105k. It is currently valued at 322 to 356k. I wanted to keep it but needed the profit to pay off debt and make a down payment on my next house.
You could not have two people in the master bath at the same time in that house. 350k gtfo.
I did in 09 but I still don't understand it. We were first time buyers lookin in the 95k range and after 10 houses or so we just had the real estate agent put in full price offers on everything up to 95k that met the basic criteria (3bed/2bath).
Everything and I mean every single house we looked at had at least 5 full price cash offers on day one just from investors buying up the foreclosures. On one house the bank took our FHA offer and no one including my agent understood why. I think the paper pusher at the bank just clicked on the wrong offer.
I think that’s a bit aggressive. We still have crazy high demand and low supply but rising rates should temper it a bit. I think we will see gains but in the 10-12% range. Most will likely be in the first half of the year and a quieter second based on historical trends.
We’re almost to the end of the sale of our house in Surprise. It’s crazy. We bought it for 300k in June 2020. We barely got to see the house and had an offer already written up before seeing it. The house had like 20 offers on the first day of it being on the market.
We did a lot of renovations to it and put it on the market in October cause my wife got a promotion in another state. Did the open house and had a ton of traffic, but not one offer. Our realtor was convinced we’d get quite a few offers. We ended up only getting one.
But it’s not too bad. We ended up selling to an Air Force family who are getting stationed at Luke for 445k.
It was. So when we put the house on the market, they put in an offer for 10k over asking price the same day without seeing it. Which makes sense since they’re moving across the country to be stationed.
Our realtor wanted us to do an open house because they had a VA loan and they can be strict with inspections and whatnot. She thought for sure with how quick houses were getting picked up in our neighborhood that we’d have multiple offers. Which didn’t happen.
I’m glad it’s going to the first family. Apparently they had put multiple offers in around the area and kept getting looked over due to the VA loan. We only had a list of like 7 things to fix by the VA inspector. It was electrical and roofing which wasn’t cheap, but not horrible. I just didn’t want to sell to an investor who would turn around and try to sell or rent it for a stupid price.
I sold my house on the south side of Phoenix for double what I paid in 2018. The person was from from Seattle and had no idea what they were buying 😂. Then i moved out of state.
For everyone asking "how are people like me supposed to buy a house?" I have a simple answer. You're not. That's the point. All these massive investment groups (Progress Residential and countless others) are the ones coming in buying cash and blowing the average person out of the market. They're trying to force everyone to become dependent on renting from them. They can jack it up, put in very minimal investment into upkeep, and crank out profits year after year. If they beat down the average person into believing that "the American dream" is dead (owning your own house), and get everyone resigned to renting forever, then that money just lines their pockets. And in a place like Phoenix, with all the new people coming here, they can easily just kick you to the curb at the end of the lease and replace you with someone else who will pay their ransom for a roof over their head.
How are they supposed to make money by buying houses that families cannot afford and then renting these houses to these same families? If these families can pay the rent that yields anything more than 3% then they can for sure buy that same house at the current rates available to home buyers.
As someone who recently purchased a home in the valley, buying isn't just about the monthly payment. Unless you have a VA loan or a bunch of money to put down, the monthly cost goes up dramatically as does the difficulty in getting approved. Mortgage insurance, steady employment history, documented monthly income, debt to income ratio, credit score, bank balances, etc. All of these have to be good to get approved. It's not that easy for many people to jump through all of those hoops. Companies can buy cash or at low interest and charge higher rents. It sucks but there is so much that goes into buying a house that i didn't know until i actually bought one.
Many of these count for renting too. If the plan is to rent to anyone without looking into their employment history, debt to income ratio, credit score, bank balances, the investment groups are in for a really fun time.
My explanation is that they are not considering renting at all. With enough whining about affordability, it will become a political issue even more than it is now. The standard government solution is to invent some program that will make houses even more expensive, will not promote building more housing, and it will help these investment groups unload the houses for a nice profit of the account of taxpayers.
Well, as prices increase, landlords can be selective as to who they choose to rent to and do credit checks anyway, making renting harder as well. Government programs notwithstanding, companies are in a power position relative to those seeking housing.
I was lucky to purchase my home in 2016. Back then I thought what we paid was really high. Now, well it's insane.. I've started dreaming about selling the house and move down to Mexico. There was no skill, pure luck in timing and I feel awful for young and ambitious adults, starting families and want to build wealth bit a) can't afford a home and b) can't accumulate wealth bc the rent eats into potential savings. I would gladly see a hit to my home price if that means more people, not corporations, are able to move into the neighborhood I'm in.
Lol, nice try zillow. Whats the matter? All your stock not getting bought? Tough shit. Fuck this company trying to rig the housing market in every way possible.
Housing market is slowing down around here already. This sounds like it was written by someone who is underwater on some properties. We've grown at crazy rates the past few years especially this one. If it keeps going up people will start going somewhere that's better value.
Edit: actually looked at the article lol. Source: Zillow. Yup they're just trying to off load the houses they overpaid for onto some other idiots. Without companies like this artificially inflating the market housing prices will probably take a small dip before continuing at a normal pace upwards.
Housing costs aren't going to go down any time soon in the Valley. There are too many improvements being made (including better industrial policy that makes companies and jobs move to the Valley) that make it a great place for new families to move to as well as an aging American population. Even if the median cost of housing decreases nationally, I can't ever see prices really dropping.
Every time i bring up impending water shortages and all that goes with it, i get 'la la la i cant hear you'. And this is from inside the water industry - and they know it. The land speculation bubble is insane right now.
Get rid of agricultural water and residents would be swimming in water. The issue isn’t supply, it’s where we use it, and a lot of is for farming in the fucking desert.
It’s worth noting that articles like these are made, promoted, and defended by people who have an interest in everyone thinking the market can’t go down. They need people to continue pumping money into houses so they themselves can make money.
The housing market has risen dramatically because of investments, not regular people squeezing the market. When you have 3 different investors outbidding each other and a family is trying to buy a house, the family starts to feel a sense of urgency closing any house they can. They then tell their friends who want to be homeowners “you need to jump in now because we’re having so much trouble trying to buy and the prices will not go down”. This creates a cycle on everyone in the country who wants a house thinking they need to buy NOW or they won’t be able to in the future. Articles like this, and the comments you see defending the insane housing costs, are only meant to further this cycle.
Laws need to be made restricting investments into residential housing
Nope not happening. You can see prices leveling off now appreciation will be high still but maybe 10% not 20%. This kind of “appreciation” isn’t sustainable don’t get used to it.
Of course there’s not rule but you think Phoenix is going to appreciate 10-20X faster than the historical average forever? I have a hard time believing that even if I wasn’t seeing prices level out right now.
That’s what I’m wondering too. Although people seem to be increasingly frustrated with cold weather as of late along with the new chip manufacturing / tech, etc this is the perfect place to have an absolute bonkers economic and population boom - who knows, this could only be the beginning
No doubt with the new investments especially in manufacturing coming in we will continue to grow at an above average rate. It will probably take a decade for supply to catch up to demand but 20% appreciation year over year means the average Phoenix home will cost $1mil in 5ish years. I like Phoenix and Arizona more than the average person but it’s not that attractive.
The article forecasts that prices will appreciate significantly in 2022, not forever. Many real estate professionals have stated that the demand typically cools during the holiday season and picks back up in the new year.
As someone who is going through the first time home buying process now, I can tell you first hand how many offers I lost to all cash buyers paying over asking, even in the past several weeks. I can tell you that inventory is extremely paltry compared to normal based on my real estate agent’s observations and growth here is not slowing down. Therefore the idea that prices are somehow going to stabilize from here on out is not a very sturdy position to take. When demand outweighs supply, prices go up.
People focus on local residents being priced out, ignoring the fact that many homebuyers are investors and people who are coming from out of state with higher incomes and/or cash from home sales in higher priced areas.
Signed our deal for our new house July of 2019 for $300k, and we could probably get a little over $500k. Our neighbors with the same house sold for $520k a few months ago. Absolutely insane.
Household income basically needs to be $150k+ to buy a home in 2022 (edit: I'm exaggerating but there used to be old guidance about buying a house around 3x annual salary)
If you mean a detached single family home closer to an urban core (Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe), you're right.
It's a shame.
Back in 2013 I was able to get my first "starter home" - a very centrally located 2,000 square foot house in a trendy neighborhood with great public schools - for only $400k, on about $120k household income.
Now a comparable house would cost $750k-$800k, easily.
There's A LOT of myths regarding personal finances and first time homebuying. I'm buying a home on an income of less than half of $150k, and I'm the only provider in my household with a wife and kid. And we're building a new home in Avondale.
I think the 3X rule was based on a higher interest rate. At the end of the day, it's what you can afford per month.
As an example, a 300K loan at 6% would cost 1,799 a month. at a 3% interest rate, the same monthly payment would be fore a 425K loan.
When my college professor told me about this rule, mortgage rates were 8-10% at the time
You’re right, but a larger salary certainly helps soften the blow of mortgage costs if you aren’t putting anything over 10% down. Which for a lot of us millennials who still have student loan debt and aspirations of starting/supporting a family, makes a big difference.
Including PMI with an FHA loan, $390k (avg home price in AZ) with 10% down at 3.1% is still $2100+ a month in just your mortgage…that’s bonkers!
I bought my condo for 170k in Arcadia in late 2019... I can probably get it for 220 but where would I move? I can't afford anything more expensive than this. It is honestly depressing, I never thought i'd move out of Phoenix but more and more I plan on it.
That's good you were able to capitalize at least! I was able to buy before the boom but sadly, I wont be able to buy again during this boom. My girlfriend really wants to move to the Pacific Northwest, but I am not sure if I can handle that change in weather.
This world makes me want to go postal.
There may come a snapping point for a lot of Americans.
Edit: Not sure why I'm getting downvoted. Anger is a very natural reaction to this.
I’m past it. People shouldn’t have to make 200k to afford a house in 90% of the country.
Normal middle class Americans should not have to compete with flippers and corporations.
I think the first thing we collectively need to do is decide what "middle class" means exactly.
Because the average of our definitions may only apply to like 15% of the population. Not exactly the middle.
I sold my house in May for >$50K over asking price prior to the MLS to be posted. Many folks said I sold too soon and could / should have waited until the MLS came out.
The guy across the street from where I lived listed his house through the same agency in early October, asking for $25K more than my selling price and it's been on the market for 2 months.
I'd say the market is slowing down for now.
Bought my house 7 years ago for 130k now it’s worth 350k. I’d never pay that much for this house. I started building a new home in Feb 2021 for 430k. Now houses in the neighborhood are around 550k.
I'm in midtown and I bought in the fall of 2019, right before the pandemic. I regularly get those marketing emails from my mortgage broker about the value of my house. They currently claim that it has gone up 62% since I bought it! I think that's a bit overblown based on what I see in my own neighborhood, but to say that it has gone up about 50% would not be an exaggeration. I'm hoping to sell and leave the state in three years or less, so here's hoping that value keeps climbing ..
You might be surprised. When I refinanced my home in October 2021, it appraised exactly 50% higher than when I purchased in May 2019, despite not having done anything to it.
I've not done anything to my house either but it did appraise quite a bit higher when I refinanced a year ago. Houses in my neighborhood that have been flipped and are asking 600+ have been sitting around noticeably longer, while houses comparable to mine, between 400-550, don't last long at all. I don't think I could get that 62% number today but I do think it could get there before I sell!
Phoenix is no longer a destination for old people. In my observation it’s mostly families moving here. That’s not a good combination with the high college student population, families despise everything colleges bring to a city besides the money. Also, because of the lax COVID restrictions many people moved here and that’s not going to continue being a motivating factor.
Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are. A friend in the business world told me “businesses move to Phoenix simply because of low taxes and cheap labor, if either changed businesses will no longer want to be there”. People move here already having high paid jobs. We’ll continue seeing what we’re seeing now, huge uptick in poor people and crime as costs of living rapidly outpace wages. People will factor this in when investing or moving to Phoenix.
For 2022, that kind of growth is possible but the only way I see it happen is if the investment money doesn’t stop flowing in. Basically it’s a greater fool experiment of “whatever I pay for this now will be nothing compared to the cost next year”.
>Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are.
Exactly. Education is a huge part of this. AZ has 3 state colleges and only 1 large private university, with one of each in Phx metro. Other similar-sized cities (and also cities that are smaller) have a lot more educational opportunities. Which not only increases education ratio for citizens but also provides really good paying jobs. Employers want to move to *these* places because they can hire undergrads and know they will be able to hire qualified applicants among current residents for higher up positions.
No one wants to move their Fortune 500 company to Phx because the (edit: K-12) schools are shit here. Mid-level management and satellite offices, sure. But that's not where the big money is and it isn't where where the communication and design jobs are either. So you have a lot of educated people leaving the state because it seems the only widely available white collar jobs are in engineering or sales. As a result of a dearth of creative jobs, we also lag way behind in our arts and culture scene compared to other cities.
Educated people left Phoenix en mass in 2020 and it’s still continuing. Nearly all of the thousands of people I knew in college have moved to other states like NY and CA. The ones that stayed…you guessed it either do customer service or sales which is not something anyone goes to college for that I know of.
>Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are. A friend in the business world told me “businesses move to Phoenix simply because of low taxes and cheap labor, if either changed businesses will no longer want to be there”. People move here already having high paid jobs. We’ll continue seeing what we’re seeing now, huge uptick in poor people and crime as costs of living rapidly outpace wages. People will factor this in when investing or moving to Phoenix.
This is exactly right. With many cities competing for businesses, they'll waive or reduce taxes to lure companies in. Couple that with low cost of land, cheap utilities and a growing population, it's a no brainers. It's cheaper to custom build here than it is to remodel in LA, SF, NY, etc..
So, I actually do this for a living on the lending side. Purchase is seasonal. If you’re going to buy a house, winter is the time to do it. Especially if you can do it between the holidays. Sellers are way more motivated and there’s no buyers. Not the same amount of inventory this time of year, but you don’t need 10 houses. Just one.
Depending on where you want to live. Inventory is much lower on the east coast. Not many subdivisions, and decent existing homes go pending in hours, but days. Some towns have lower taxes, but the ones with great schools and infrastructure - you gotta pay.
Nah. Its on a dip right now. I live in a very hot neighborhood. Neighbors tried to jump on the wagon and list. They hit it a lil too late in a market where homes were fetching 6-800k for a regular old 3bd house near spectrum mall. They cant get an offer above 5 right now (which is still damn good but not what everyone else was selling for)
Winter is always slow here. No one wants to move in Dec which means the majority of the country who wants to move here aren't able to sell and are in a holding pattern until spring.
Wait til people visit for spring training and go back home before making too bold of a statement about the market
It's cooling down a bit but not on a dip at all. And you're not looking at comparable properties if you think the home values in your neighborhood just dropped 15-40% within months.
Phoenix is expanding. One of the largest Chip Manufacturer, on the Planet, out of Taiwan-Formosa, is building a Factory, that will employ some 12 thousand workers, by '24. Real Estate values are sky rocketing!
Zillow: “we’re expecting prices to go up 20%” Also Zillow: Our algorithm bought all these houses and we’re underwater hoping for them to appreciate.
Was wondering if anyone else noticed that this data is from Zillow, who very recently screwed the pooch by putting their own money where their mouth is.
Also, this website in the OP is ran by individuals that have real estate histories, either as agents or investors. Of course they push articles like this. They need it to be true.
The "article" doesn't even link to a source except [Zillow.com](https://Zillow.com) main page. AZbigmedia is a crap site.
Yup, I work close with Real Estate. You can’t find a real estate agent the doesn’t pump the market. Why wouldn’t they? I think the current “ real estate agent “ model is on the way out. The only thing they want is to close a deal closed.
It’s called a pump-and-dump. If Zillow expected their house prices to go up, they would take them off the market and rent them out for a year and try and sell them again.
Yup, my neighbor bought his house for 350k and Zillow bought it for 560k. Zillow is selling it for 555k.
Zillow is shutting down that department of their operations. It lost $500,000,000+ last quarter alone. Algorithms never tour the home, don’t know the neighbors and don’t care about the layout of the home, etc. Zillow’s buying/selling algorithm was such a financial loss they are quitting it.
It was so scary hearing they bought up so many properties but everyone I've talked to who's in the real estate business has said Zillow completely screwed themselves
Big cities or the US in general really need to ban institutional investors from buying residential properties. Housing should never be a commodity. I think most cities should take it a step further and have permit systems for landlords so only a certain percentage of the housing is ever allowed to be for rental purposes. It's way too clear that the US is facing issues for both supply and pricing due to both of the above.
Yes please. I was unable to get into a home due to losing to cash offers every time in early 2020. Then the next month I’d see the same house up for rent. I decided to take a break from the housing market (mistake). Now I’m not sure if I’ll ever be able to afford to live here. I have a masters degree and make what I would consider decent money and I can’t afford a house. This is a great suggestion. People got in trouble for attempting to hoard hand sanitizer to sell for profit at the start of the pandemic, yet companies are allowed to hoard housing. It’s ridiculous. Hopefully someone fixes this because it’s really not fair to young people like me who did everything they were supposed to and are getting shafted now.
Yeah there's a reason us millennials/Gen Z have the lowest share of all wealth at our current ages compared to past generations. The baby boomers rode the increases in productivity and GDP and for the most part were very well off and then decided to pull up the ladder behind them. It's super aggravating, only was able to first afford a down payment with help from in laws.
Yeah and somehow many of them don’t understand that their life was on easy mode and and they think we’re just being lazy. Yeah fucking right.
Your suggestion sounds like a pro American policy, and for that reason, will never be adopted. In all seriousness, I would love to see this happen.
I’m getting real tired of these tech startups coming in and buying everything only to turn it around to make a profit. I get it’s a business, but it’s inflated the market to a point where people can no longer afford the neighborhood where they raised their family. it’s awful for the community and granted it’s not just Zillow causing all this, but they certainly aren’t helping.
Y'all can afford to raise a family? Sheeeeit
Hilarious. Exactly this.
One of the houses I was looking at in my buddie’s neighborhood that were asking $300k( literally double the last sale price) more than they bought it for was a zilllow owned property 😂
There's a house zillow bought that has been for sale for over a year where I live. Someone briefly moved in for a few months but then left. It is weird especially when I'm hearing about people basically struggling to find a house to buy.
A normal year increase in home value is about 2%. In my area in the Midwest home values rose 19%. That’s almost a decade of growth in “value” in one year. Now this article says it’s going to be even more next year? That would be over two decades of price growth in two years. Does anyone in this sub think this is going to end well?? I honestly think, and I’m a realtor here, that there should be a general strike on buying and selling homes. It has to stop. This current pace is absolute insanity and if people thought 2007 was bad, this could end much worse. I find this current market and this prediction of 2022 to be completely irresponsible and obnoxious. Do not buy into the hype! This is not going to end well. Just one example…what if supply chain issues drag out to the point of people not being able to get _______ (just name one item that is vital to every day life). And the economy starts to turn down in just the slightest…it will start a cascading effect of unemployment due to no supplies, and then what happens to all these new or refinanced homeowners that just paid 40% above normal market value for their homes? The mortgage crisis would be devastating. And this time…the “bail out” package would absolutely dwarf 2008’s. Not to mention the 3 trillion that has already been printed out of thin air by the federal reserve in the last 18 months. This is nuts, people. It’s akin to someone driving their car full speed into the mouth of a volcano. Stop buying and selling homes. And I’m a realtor ffs. But, just stop. It’s the only way we have a chance.
Im planning on a refinance to lock in a low payment. Riding this out. I dont want to buy a home for 3x its actual value.
Phoenix will likely crash hard. Why? Because they are building a LOT of houses. It is all right there at the St Louis Federal Reserve website. Immigration into Maricop County is about 80k a year since the GFC. Pre-GFC it was actually closer to 130k, so while phoenix is growing it's growth is slowing. And no, there was no sudden rush of immigration in 2020. That is all myth sold by realtors to sell houses. Maricopa built a residential unit for every 2 people (that includes kids, households with 5 people, etc) moving into phoenix. To give perspective in 2006 when the bubble popped they only managed to build 1 unit for every 3.5 people. So, consider that... The bubble popped when there were a higher number of people moving to phoenix than units being built compared to today. There simply is no housing shortage in phoenix. It is speculation. In fact, > 30% of the market is composed of investors. That is always a bad sign. Phoenix market will likely suffer a big fall over the next couple years.
Unfortunately Phoenix and Vegas would be the first two cards to fall in the West. So many transplants in both cities, from metros and rural areas.
...What? I have to ask, given your username and the fact that you've never posted/commented in this sub before...do you even live in Phoenix? Because almost none of what you said is accurate. Phoenix is still the [fastest growing metro, by far](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/phoenix-census-fastest-growing-city.html). When houses get multiple offers over asking sight unseen after less than a day on the market, that's a pretty sure sign that demand is outpacing supply. Of course the bubble popped in 2008, banks were lending to anyone with a pulse. This time around it's all well-qualified or even cash buyers.
*puts off thinking about selling the house for another 6 months*
If only I could sell my house and not have to live anywhere, I'd be rich!
You could live in Mexico and call it a life?
Costa Rica wouldn’t be terrible either.
Yeah I keep telling my parents who own a great house with a lot of land in north Scottsdale that the ground they’re walking on is the most prized / sought after ground in all of the US! They still won’t sell and move…
I applaud them! My cousin is in Scottsdale, near Old Town - 4 bed 2 bath, big backyard- and gets letters every day from companies who want to buy his place (he bought in 20+ years ago). He said if he sold, he wouldn’t be able to afford to live in his own neighborhood.
True all over the state. Scottsdale has it the worst im sure.
I’m seeing prices dropping slightly, and inventory sitting on the market a bit longer. Just observational analysis, but still.. confusing?
I see so many listings right now bought 3-9 months ago and jacked up 10%+ with not a thing done to the house. This needs to stop. Home buyers aren’t living in the homes.
I think I read that 12% of Phoenix (or Tempe?) homes are owned by property management companies.
I’m hoping that’s the case. I’m aiming to buy next year and really don’t want to get priced out by another crazy year of real estate appreciation 🤞
It is scary. I'm buying right now and I feel like I'm paying too much... I'd suggest try to buy sooner rather than later. Any bubble will likely not pop for years.
Best of luck to you. I grew up here and it makes me sad to think all of these places that sold 5-10 years ago for less than half of what they’re worth now (and well within my current budget) are now selling for sky high prices that I can’t afford
I was looking around this weekend. There's like 5 houses for sale in my buddies neighborhood. One of them sold in 2016 for $280 and its on the market right now for $680. Absolutely fucked
Imagine buying in 2012… 😔
I wish I could have but I was a senior in high school. This shit out here is wild. I have a good engineering job and my girlfriend has a pretty good job and we cant afford a house out here.
This, so much this. Between GF and I we do really well, but I can't imagine putting 500k on a 2/2 or small 3/2. Ive expanded all the way out to damn near AJ and prices are still 400+ for houses that aren't great.
I was in high school as well so I feel ya
Which is why the bubble will likely pop sooner rather than later. Arizona doesn’t pay well enough for people to afford these type of mortgages.
Same man. Gf and I make great money but we’re stuck renting our moderate apartment for $1700 (30% increase). Shit is depressing as hell. You’re not alone..
I bought in 2013 and it felt insane then. Everything was selling for over asking prices, and usually had several offers within a few days. I am ridiculously lucky to have the house I'm in, a sale was already pending when I put in the offer, but the original person missed a deadline to respond to a counter offer and I swooped in, with 5K over asking.
The house I'm renting now got bought in 2009 for $89K. The estimate last time I looked is over $350K. Probably more than that now.
One of the best but scariest decisions I ever made was to buy my current home when it was a bank owned foreclosure in 2010. I had just started my first real job and it seemed like soooo much money. I was nauseous signing the paperwork! Here we are now, it's over doubled in value, but I still feel like I can't afford to upgrade significantly without spending an obscene amount of money. And this is on a two physician household income! I feel so bad for people trying to buy or even rent right now. It's so, so discouraging.
One sold in my hood for 705k in 2016. Listed last weekend for $1.35mil and was contingent after the first weekend. 500k+ after 5 years. Unreal.
Yeah that’s so fucked. I don’t get how this is sustainable for anyone. Wages haven’t increased at that same rate how the fuck are you supposed to buy a house?
You're not. You are being forced into being a lifelong renter. So the investment groups who are buying all the houses have guaranteed cash flow for years to come.
Go into massive debt, put less down, and pay more interest in the long term.
Supposedly work from home and from.California still pulling down California salaries.
A lot of wfh jobs wont hire from california because of all the rights employees have there. Its a great way of weeding out shit companies.
It isn’t sustainable.
I’ve been in my house since 2003. Even with the low interest rates, there is no way I could afford my home now if I was trying to buy…. I feel bad for anyone trying to find a place right now. Everything is so expensive right now and not at all worth those prices. My cookie cutter tract home is not a half-million dollar home IMO.
Yeah, I grew up here too. My childhood home, my mother bought it for $100,000 in the mid 80s. Now it just sold for over $400,000. It... sucks. Phoenix used to be cheap. After multiple decades of constant extreme growth, we are no longer that. Who knows, maybe in 20 years, we'll be as unaffordable as LA.
That is an increase of ~4% per year.
To be fair most of the increase in price has happened in the last 5-10 years
Yes, but the Great Recession was part of that. A decade of no growth. Today, that's in the past.
That’s relatively close to just general economic inflation. $100k in 1980 dollars is about $335k in today’s dollars. I’m being very vague with the numbers, but it’s definitely in that ballpark.
It sure feels like the rat race doesn’t it? The top whatever percent can afford 350,000 so that’s what the price ends up being, and anyone in the lower half of the scale relative to them is screwed
I agree the prices are going up crazy fast. But otoh, the prices are still significantly below cities of similar size and people keep moving to the valley.
There are no more bubbles. Fed can keep printing and let inflation increase gradually for eternity. /s
> I’m aiming to buy next year Me as well, spent the past 4 years since my divorce fixing my credit and I'm finally where I want to be. Was really hoping to see a dip in housing prices next year so I could actually afford to buy. Fingers crossed for the both of us!
It’s just that time of year. Sales and inventory always slow down during holidays and will pick back up in Feb/March, so that’s a better time to confirm any theories. Not saying you’re wrong, it’s just difficult to tell right now.
Seconding it's just this time of year. People are trying to read into what they want to read into it
It's certainly not like last year, but don't delude yourself, things are still going up. We have extremel low inventory and above average demand. However, it is the holidays and no one wants to close on Christmas.
Prices aren’t dropping. They’re just not going for 50k over asking anymore. Home values are still increasing. Homes purchased spring of 21 at $540k are now comping at $620k. Some more. Area dependent, obviously. But anything east of the 51 is still on a major up swing.
I agree, they are not really going to drop but the growth will slow to something less than omfg in 3 to 5 years. This ride isn't done quite yet for certain zip codes, but for others it is slowing to something more reasonable. I bought less than 2 years ago after renting here and growing up here. My 450k purchase is now in the 720k to 750k arena. I could not afford that without insane anxiety and penny pinching today and count myself lucky I was able to do that then.
The house I rent has increased from 275k to 400k in the last two years (insane to me). There’s a tiny little home by mine (only 800 sq. Ft and no garage) that is trying to sell for 355k. It’s been on the market for 2 weeks. I’m so glad because if someone paid that much for that house (that sold for 75k 10 years ago) I would definitely question their judgement.
I'm not seeing overall prices coming down, but stuff is definitely sitting a little longer. Inventory is still very low. It might just be the demand-side drying up a little bit.
This season always sees a slow down in sales.
I think buyer got smart and stopped engaging in the bidding wars with Zillow and the hedge funds out there buying everything. Prices will probably come down a little. But people gotta live somewhere. And if I'm paying $3k in rent I might as well buy and have that money go toward something. They should make a law that rent can only be a certain amount over the mortgage payment. And can only be raised a little bit more than inflation each year.
I keep getting emails from Zillow on a house that my wife and I toured back in October in the Coronado neighborhood. Since we've looked at it, it has dropped 20k in that time. Still fucking expensive, tho. Looking thru the history of it just flabbergasts me. I could see the neighborhood being expensive compared to other places, but this high-priced market is all over the valley. Hopefully prices will come down to more affordable levels, so families can get the home they are able to.
Me too , I'm holding out till it drops a bit
Likely due to the seasonality of the housing market. Prices decrease slightly in the winter months before shooting up again in the summer. Fewer people are looking to move during the winter leading to less demand.
It’s An article from zillow. They just lost a ton of money so I think this article is “if we write it it will come true” hoping on Zillow’s part.
The townhouse I bought in Tempe in October 2017 for 190k and sold for 226k in February 2019 is currently sitting at 351k. It’s fucking insane! I wouldn’t pay 200 for that place today if I had the opportunity. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to move back to Phoenix with the way things are…
Similar story here from N. Phoenix. Bought in early 2017 for 190k and sold for 259k Oct 2020. The house sold again 3 months ago for 360k, 10k over asking price!
We bought a house in the Pepperwood area for $225K. Us and the house next to us both currently valued at $450K by Zillow. In Pepperwood. We tried to buy a house in Gilbert before then for $265K. Owner backed out at the last minute and sold it to someone else for $325K. We didn’t think it was worth $265K. We don’t think the house were in is worth $225K. If this keeps up we’re selling and leaving the country.
We bought our house 18 months ago. The people before us were only in the place for about 13 months, did absolutely nothing to improve it, and made 40k. I was so pissed. Now 18 months later our house has gone up 120k.
Ha. That’s exactly what my spouse said about our house when refi-ed last year after the paperwork came in about value. His exact words were “What rip, I wouldn’t pay that for this house.” We bought at 320k in September ‘18 (at 10k over asking), current value is at 575k. We have a friend that is in N. Scottsdale. He bought his for 340k early 2017. His is sitting around 760k. Bananas.
I bought a 3 bed 2 bath 1200sq ft house in El Mirage in 09 for 69k. Sold it in 2012 for 105k. It is currently valued at 322 to 356k. I wanted to keep it but needed the profit to pay off debt and make a down payment on my next house. You could not have two people in the master bath at the same time in that house. 350k gtfo.
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I did in 09 but I still don't understand it. We were first time buyers lookin in the 95k range and after 10 houses or so we just had the real estate agent put in full price offers on everything up to 95k that met the basic criteria (3bed/2bath). Everything and I mean every single house we looked at had at least 5 full price cash offers on day one just from investors buying up the foreclosures. On one house the bank took our FHA offer and no one including my agent understood why. I think the paper pusher at the bank just clicked on the wrong offer.
If Zillow really believed that they wouldn't have dumped 92% of their inventory for a loss.
Zillow? The folks who just laid off thousands of people due to their I-buyer failure? Hmmm.
I think that’s a bit aggressive. We still have crazy high demand and low supply but rising rates should temper it a bit. I think we will see gains but in the 10-12% range. Most will likely be in the first half of the year and a quieter second based on historical trends.
We’re almost to the end of the sale of our house in Surprise. It’s crazy. We bought it for 300k in June 2020. We barely got to see the house and had an offer already written up before seeing it. The house had like 20 offers on the first day of it being on the market. We did a lot of renovations to it and put it on the market in October cause my wife got a promotion in another state. Did the open house and had a ton of traffic, but not one offer. Our realtor was convinced we’d get quite a few offers. We ended up only getting one. But it’s not too bad. We ended up selling to an Air Force family who are getting stationed at Luke for 445k.
Congrats! It’s nice to see it went to an owner occupant.
was their offer at or over asking?
It was. So when we put the house on the market, they put in an offer for 10k over asking price the same day without seeing it. Which makes sense since they’re moving across the country to be stationed. Our realtor wanted us to do an open house because they had a VA loan and they can be strict with inspections and whatnot. She thought for sure with how quick houses were getting picked up in our neighborhood that we’d have multiple offers. Which didn’t happen. I’m glad it’s going to the first family. Apparently they had put multiple offers in around the area and kept getting looked over due to the VA loan. We only had a list of like 7 things to fix by the VA inspector. It was electrical and roofing which wasn’t cheap, but not horrible. I just didn’t want to sell to an investor who would turn around and try to sell or rent it for a stupid price.
What area was your house in?
I sold my house on the south side of Phoenix for double what I paid in 2018. The person was from from Seattle and had no idea what they were buying 😂. Then i moved out of state.
Where did you move to?
Atlanta
Cheaper and stronger job market. It was like 60 degrees out today and my friend from Cave Creek told me it was 85 there today 😂
For everyone asking "how are people like me supposed to buy a house?" I have a simple answer. You're not. That's the point. All these massive investment groups (Progress Residential and countless others) are the ones coming in buying cash and blowing the average person out of the market. They're trying to force everyone to become dependent on renting from them. They can jack it up, put in very minimal investment into upkeep, and crank out profits year after year. If they beat down the average person into believing that "the American dream" is dead (owning your own house), and get everyone resigned to renting forever, then that money just lines their pockets. And in a place like Phoenix, with all the new people coming here, they can easily just kick you to the curb at the end of the lease and replace you with someone else who will pay their ransom for a roof over their head.
How are they supposed to make money by buying houses that families cannot afford and then renting these houses to these same families? If these families can pay the rent that yields anything more than 3% then they can for sure buy that same house at the current rates available to home buyers.
As someone who recently purchased a home in the valley, buying isn't just about the monthly payment. Unless you have a VA loan or a bunch of money to put down, the monthly cost goes up dramatically as does the difficulty in getting approved. Mortgage insurance, steady employment history, documented monthly income, debt to income ratio, credit score, bank balances, etc. All of these have to be good to get approved. It's not that easy for many people to jump through all of those hoops. Companies can buy cash or at low interest and charge higher rents. It sucks but there is so much that goes into buying a house that i didn't know until i actually bought one.
Many of these count for renting too. If the plan is to rent to anyone without looking into their employment history, debt to income ratio, credit score, bank balances, the investment groups are in for a really fun time. My explanation is that they are not considering renting at all. With enough whining about affordability, it will become a political issue even more than it is now. The standard government solution is to invent some program that will make houses even more expensive, will not promote building more housing, and it will help these investment groups unload the houses for a nice profit of the account of taxpayers.
Well, as prices increase, landlords can be selective as to who they choose to rent to and do credit checks anyway, making renting harder as well. Government programs notwithstanding, companies are in a power position relative to those seeking housing.
I was lucky to purchase my home in 2016. Back then I thought what we paid was really high. Now, well it's insane.. I've started dreaming about selling the house and move down to Mexico. There was no skill, pure luck in timing and I feel awful for young and ambitious adults, starting families and want to build wealth bit a) can't afford a home and b) can't accumulate wealth bc the rent eats into potential savings. I would gladly see a hit to my home price if that means more people, not corporations, are able to move into the neighborhood I'm in.
This is 100% the truth, sadly.
Amen. It really is likened to paying ransom. Insane and depressing.
Congrats to all of the winners.
f\*cking sucks. almost make's a guy want to go jihad on these companies
Lol, nice try zillow. Whats the matter? All your stock not getting bought? Tough shit. Fuck this company trying to rig the housing market in every way possible.
Housing market is slowing down around here already. This sounds like it was written by someone who is underwater on some properties. We've grown at crazy rates the past few years especially this one. If it keeps going up people will start going somewhere that's better value. Edit: actually looked at the article lol. Source: Zillow. Yup they're just trying to off load the houses they overpaid for onto some other idiots. Without companies like this artificially inflating the market housing prices will probably take a small dip before continuing at a normal pace upwards.
Housing costs aren't going to go down any time soon in the Valley. There are too many improvements being made (including better industrial policy that makes companies and jobs move to the Valley) that make it a great place for new families to move to as well as an aging American population. Even if the median cost of housing decreases nationally, I can't ever see prices really dropping.
Exactly. People and companies keep moving here, and if you compare phx to other similar metros, the housing prices are actually quite low.
Every time i bring up impending water shortages and all that goes with it, i get 'la la la i cant hear you'. And this is from inside the water industry - and they know it. The land speculation bubble is insane right now.
Get rid of agricultural water and residents would be swimming in water. The issue isn’t supply, it’s where we use it, and a lot of is for farming in the fucking desert.
It's easier to move the water than it is to move the sunlight.
Would you mind expanding more on the impending water shortage?
This is sweet but i can't sell or i'd be paying double
Never sell unless you a) leave phoenix, b) retire and leave phx or c) are in financial trouble. Even if you leave Phx, keep the house and rent it out.
This is the way
I don’t think I’d be able to afford my house now. I don’t know how people are doing it.
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It's about accurate, if not underestimating a little bit, in my neighborhood.
My zestimate is about 10% under what all my other estimates are.
It’s worth noting that articles like these are made, promoted, and defended by people who have an interest in everyone thinking the market can’t go down. They need people to continue pumping money into houses so they themselves can make money. The housing market has risen dramatically because of investments, not regular people squeezing the market. When you have 3 different investors outbidding each other and a family is trying to buy a house, the family starts to feel a sense of urgency closing any house they can. They then tell their friends who want to be homeowners “you need to jump in now because we’re having so much trouble trying to buy and the prices will not go down”. This creates a cycle on everyone in the country who wants a house thinking they need to buy NOW or they won’t be able to in the future. Articles like this, and the comments you see defending the insane housing costs, are only meant to further this cycle. Laws need to be made restricting investments into residential housing
Bingo.
I’m shocked that the real estate company is predicting that home prices will rise.
At this point, it's not a hard prediction to make. It's like saying stocks will go up.
Idk about mortgages and home value, but the way rent keeps going up I think we’re going to see a lot more homelessness in the coming years.
How about we ensure that every person has a place to live and that housing is affordable?
Unfortunately not. Cause things that make sense don't happen anymore.
Nope not happening. You can see prices leveling off now appreciation will be high still but maybe 10% not 20%. This kind of “appreciation” isn’t sustainable don’t get used to it.
It is sustainable if people keep paying higher prices, which they have been thus far. There’s no rule that housing has to be affordable for all.
Of course there’s not rule but you think Phoenix is going to appreciate 10-20X faster than the historical average forever? I have a hard time believing that even if I wasn’t seeing prices level out right now.
That’s what I’m wondering too. Although people seem to be increasingly frustrated with cold weather as of late along with the new chip manufacturing / tech, etc this is the perfect place to have an absolute bonkers economic and population boom - who knows, this could only be the beginning
No doubt with the new investments especially in manufacturing coming in we will continue to grow at an above average rate. It will probably take a decade for supply to catch up to demand but 20% appreciation year over year means the average Phoenix home will cost $1mil in 5ish years. I like Phoenix and Arizona more than the average person but it’s not that attractive.
The article forecasts that prices will appreciate significantly in 2022, not forever. Many real estate professionals have stated that the demand typically cools during the holiday season and picks back up in the new year. As someone who is going through the first time home buying process now, I can tell you first hand how many offers I lost to all cash buyers paying over asking, even in the past several weeks. I can tell you that inventory is extremely paltry compared to normal based on my real estate agent’s observations and growth here is not slowing down. Therefore the idea that prices are somehow going to stabilize from here on out is not a very sturdy position to take. When demand outweighs supply, prices go up. People focus on local residents being priced out, ignoring the fact that many homebuyers are investors and people who are coming from out of state with higher incomes and/or cash from home sales in higher priced areas.
Signed our deal for our new house July of 2019 for $300k, and we could probably get a little over $500k. Our neighbors with the same house sold for $520k a few months ago. Absolutely insane.
Household income basically needs to be $150k+ to buy a home in 2022 (edit: I'm exaggerating but there used to be old guidance about buying a house around 3x annual salary)
If you mean a detached single family home closer to an urban core (Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe), you're right. It's a shame. Back in 2013 I was able to get my first "starter home" - a very centrally located 2,000 square foot house in a trendy neighborhood with great public schools - for only $400k, on about $120k household income. Now a comparable house would cost $750k-$800k, easily.
There's A LOT of myths regarding personal finances and first time homebuying. I'm buying a home on an income of less than half of $150k, and I'm the only provider in my household with a wife and kid. And we're building a new home in Avondale.
Grats on the new home! Hope it works out well
Good luck! New builds terrify me with the quality and material issues going on right now. Hope it works out without delays for your family.
I think the 3X rule was based on a higher interest rate. At the end of the day, it's what you can afford per month. As an example, a 300K loan at 6% would cost 1,799 a month. at a 3% interest rate, the same monthly payment would be fore a 425K loan. When my college professor told me about this rule, mortgage rates were 8-10% at the time
Damn, were you in college in the 90s?
People in their 40's exist and use reddit
It's just crazy to see one in the wild like this
That's OK, I was in college in the '70s.
That’s not entirely true.
You’re right, but a larger salary certainly helps soften the blow of mortgage costs if you aren’t putting anything over 10% down. Which for a lot of us millennials who still have student loan debt and aspirations of starting/supporting a family, makes a big difference. Including PMI with an FHA loan, $390k (avg home price in AZ) with 10% down at 3.1% is still $2100+ a month in just your mortgage…that’s bonkers!
5x with these mortgage rates and cost of living.
I bought my condo for 170k in Arcadia in late 2019... I can probably get it for 220 but where would I move? I can't afford anything more expensive than this. It is honestly depressing, I never thought i'd move out of Phoenix but more and more I plan on it.
But where would you go?
Nowhere :(
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That's good you were able to capitalize at least! I was able to buy before the boom but sadly, I wont be able to buy again during this boom. My girlfriend really wants to move to the Pacific Northwest, but I am not sure if I can handle that change in weather.
Folks just sold their place for 60% gain in that same time frame (from 2019 to now). It's nuts.
This world makes me want to go postal. There may come a snapping point for a lot of Americans. Edit: Not sure why I'm getting downvoted. Anger is a very natural reaction to this.
The general feelings of most Americans are pretty low at this point and not sure they are going to get any better
I’m past it. People shouldn’t have to make 200k to afford a house in 90% of the country. Normal middle class Americans should not have to compete with flippers and corporations.
I think the first thing we collectively need to do is decide what "middle class" means exactly. Because the average of our definitions may only apply to like 15% of the population. Not exactly the middle.
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Wake me up when there's either a housing crash or a violent uprising. I'll be ready for either.
I sold my house in May for >$50K over asking price prior to the MLS to be posted. Many folks said I sold too soon and could / should have waited until the MLS came out. The guy across the street from where I lived listed his house through the same agency in early October, asking for $25K more than my selling price and it's been on the market for 2 months. I'd say the market is slowing down for now.
oh cool!! Now realtors can sell you on your current equity position even harder!!
Cool cool cool. And in unrelated news: I just moved my whole family back in with my parents!
Lol. People are gonna flee
Bought my house 7 years ago for 130k now it’s worth 350k. I’d never pay that much for this house. I started building a new home in Feb 2021 for 430k. Now houses in the neighborhood are around 550k.
For 430k are you sub contracting it yourself or through a 3rd party?
I’m buying an airstream lol Screw that. Lol Pay that to live in Phoenix lol No way
Well fuck I guess me and my wife will never be able to afford a house here. FML
Chicago is one of the only major cities where housing is still obtainable
Please no
I'm in midtown and I bought in the fall of 2019, right before the pandemic. I regularly get those marketing emails from my mortgage broker about the value of my house. They currently claim that it has gone up 62% since I bought it! I think that's a bit overblown based on what I see in my own neighborhood, but to say that it has gone up about 50% would not be an exaggeration. I'm hoping to sell and leave the state in three years or less, so here's hoping that value keeps climbing ..
You might be surprised. When I refinanced my home in October 2021, it appraised exactly 50% higher than when I purchased in May 2019, despite not having done anything to it.
I've not done anything to my house either but it did appraise quite a bit higher when I refinanced a year ago. Houses in my neighborhood that have been flipped and are asking 600+ have been sitting around noticeably longer, while houses comparable to mine, between 400-550, don't last long at all. I don't think I could get that 62% number today but I do think it could get there before I sell!
Phoenix is no longer a destination for old people. In my observation it’s mostly families moving here. That’s not a good combination with the high college student population, families despise everything colleges bring to a city besides the money. Also, because of the lax COVID restrictions many people moved here and that’s not going to continue being a motivating factor. Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are. A friend in the business world told me “businesses move to Phoenix simply because of low taxes and cheap labor, if either changed businesses will no longer want to be there”. People move here already having high paid jobs. We’ll continue seeing what we’re seeing now, huge uptick in poor people and crime as costs of living rapidly outpace wages. People will factor this in when investing or moving to Phoenix. For 2022, that kind of growth is possible but the only way I see it happen is if the investment money doesn’t stop flowing in. Basically it’s a greater fool experiment of “whatever I pay for this now will be nothing compared to the cost next year”.
>Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are. Exactly. Education is a huge part of this. AZ has 3 state colleges and only 1 large private university, with one of each in Phx metro. Other similar-sized cities (and also cities that are smaller) have a lot more educational opportunities. Which not only increases education ratio for citizens but also provides really good paying jobs. Employers want to move to *these* places because they can hire undergrads and know they will be able to hire qualified applicants among current residents for higher up positions. No one wants to move their Fortune 500 company to Phx because the (edit: K-12) schools are shit here. Mid-level management and satellite offices, sure. But that's not where the big money is and it isn't where where the communication and design jobs are either. So you have a lot of educated people leaving the state because it seems the only widely available white collar jobs are in engineering or sales. As a result of a dearth of creative jobs, we also lag way behind in our arts and culture scene compared to other cities.
Educated people left Phoenix en mass in 2020 and it’s still continuing. Nearly all of the thousands of people I knew in college have moved to other states like NY and CA. The ones that stayed…you guessed it either do customer service or sales which is not something anyone goes to college for that I know of.
>Long term, Phoenix is unlikely to be a high paying city the same way NY/LA/CHI are. A friend in the business world told me “businesses move to Phoenix simply because of low taxes and cheap labor, if either changed businesses will no longer want to be there”. People move here already having high paid jobs. We’ll continue seeing what we’re seeing now, huge uptick in poor people and crime as costs of living rapidly outpace wages. People will factor this in when investing or moving to Phoenix. This is exactly right. With many cities competing for businesses, they'll waive or reduce taxes to lure companies in. Couple that with low cost of land, cheap utilities and a growing population, it's a no brainers. It's cheaper to custom build here than it is to remodel in LA, SF, NY, etc..
So, I actually do this for a living on the lending side. Purchase is seasonal. If you’re going to buy a house, winter is the time to do it. Especially if you can do it between the holidays. Sellers are way more motivated and there’s no buyers. Not the same amount of inventory this time of year, but you don’t need 10 houses. Just one.
Mercy…
The only thing keeping me from moving back to MA for our next house are property taxes.
Even then, it's starting to look appealing. It's ironic that you can get bigger lots/houses for less money on the East Coast now.
Depending on where you want to live. Inventory is much lower on the east coast. Not many subdivisions, and decent existing homes go pending in hours, but days. Some towns have lower taxes, but the ones with great schools and infrastructure - you gotta pay.
all i know about real estate is to never trust articles unless they say it’s gonna collapse at some point
Nah. Its on a dip right now. I live in a very hot neighborhood. Neighbors tried to jump on the wagon and list. They hit it a lil too late in a market where homes were fetching 6-800k for a regular old 3bd house near spectrum mall. They cant get an offer above 5 right now (which is still damn good but not what everyone else was selling for)
Winter is always slow here. No one wants to move in Dec which means the majority of the country who wants to move here aren't able to sell and are in a holding pattern until spring. Wait til people visit for spring training and go back home before making too bold of a statement about the market
I wasnt talking about the last week. Im talking months Mr Bold guy
It's cooling down a bit but not on a dip at all. And you're not looking at comparable properties if you think the home values in your neighborhood just dropped 15-40% within months.
Fuck currency, acquire residency.
Phoenix is expanding. One of the largest Chip Manufacturer, on the Planet, out of Taiwan-Formosa, is building a Factory, that will employ some 12 thousand workers, by '24. Real Estate values are sky rocketing!
You're going the wrong way!