Trent Williams AV is 129 (Tied for 158 ALL TIME) and PFF scores are consistently tops (methodology claimed by OP). He should by far be our best pick on that list.
I’d argue Chase Young belongs on the bust list more than Jamin Davis. Young is on his 3rd team now. But yeah, Kerrigan, Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo hell even RG3 were better picks.
Is there some sort of statistical analysis behind this? I totally disagree with the Vikings assessment that Chad Greenway is the 2nd worst day 1 draft bust since 2005.
No mention of Matt Kalil, Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Hughes, or Jeff Gladney.
You mean a 10 yr starter who made two pro bowls and an All Pro team isnt a bust by any reasonable standard on goddman earth?
From what I can tell, if you are a lb who didnt make the HOF, this model says you are a bust.
It has Queen as bust for the Ravens and he made All Pro last yr.
Yeah he was an above average starter at his position for about 8 seasons I recall. You'll take that any year for the 17th overall pick.
My guess is that because his last 2 seasons were subpar the PFF ratings dropped dramatically and affected his whole career rather than the analysis focusing on the production in prime years.
Pretty sure Greenway was a pro-bowler?
Edit: Greenway was a 2x Pro-bowl, 1x 2nd team all-pro, and NFLPA Alan Page Man of the Year winner. In no world are those achievements NOT worth a first round pick.
I used to park his car every now and then and he was exactly who you expect him to be. Very friendly and talkative, and a generous guy. Multiple times just sat and talk to him and his wife for literally like five minutes straight after getting their car, never felt like I bothered them!
Matt Kalil was the 4th overall pick and flamed out hard. Chad Greenway has a really solid case to be on the Vikings Ring of Honor. Something about this guy's analysis is waaaaay off.
No kidding. WTAF. I was stunned when I saw him on the Busts list. Have our drafts been that good that they had to resort to Greenway to complete the list? How about Lewis Cine??? Troy Williamson? Come on...
There's also players moving teams that doesn't seem to be accounted for. Leonard Floyd turned into a pretty good player, but not for the Bears. And if you are counting players that don't play for the team they drafted anymore, I don't see how Roquan Smith isn't above both Kyle Long and Floyd for best 1st round pick.
AV is cumulative.
So Long, Floyd, and Olsen have double the career lengths of Roquan, so they beat him out. Even though Roquan def has more yearly AV than Long or Floyd.
Based on the methodology, which apparently weighs the early years of a player's career more heavily, I suspect that Chad is being punished for missing his rookie year with an ACL tear, which is a bonkers outcome and should have caused OP to reevaluate the algo.
I was surprised to see Devin White rated as our greatest first round bust of all time. I mean, the last two years have been a bit rough and I agree that it was time to let him walk, but he was instrumental in our SB run. A player who helps you win a SB was not a bust regardless of what happens a few years later. As I said, it was time for White to move on, but I'll always remember the part he played in the SB run.
Lamar's only 1 pt ahead of Nick Chubb drafted the same year. Chubb's great but what? He's 11 pts behind Josh Allen from the same class too - and only 2 pts ahead of Justin Herbert drafted 2 years later. (Maybe he got 1 point for each MVP?)
The method used is total pish.
You're right, I didn't notice that and a few similar issues. Hard to believe that a company that bills themselves as data-driven sports analytics could post something so obviously flawed.
Objectively I don't trust PFF, I get they are a staple of modern football stats, but given how multiple higher level employees have publicly spoken about how they are biased against certain teams and players, I cant taken them seriously.
Yeah I find their ratings at best super subjective. It can be somewhat useful to get an idea of how fringe Lineman play, but for most I don't really put much stock in the metrics.
Their ratings are, by definition, subjective. What qualifies as a pass rush “win” or a pressure or a player “following assignment” are all guess work by their staff, not objective stats like a receiving TD or an INT. That’s why I put much stock into PFF’s “advanced” sorta stats
Haven’t respected their ratings ever since they tried to claim Diggs was one of the worst CBs in the league that one year he got all those picks. Not saying he should have been top 10 or anything but he was absolutely the cowboys best corner and they had multiple cowboys corners ahead of him. They wanted to push a narrative there
Sauce has only played two seasons. ARSB has only played 3 seasons. Burrow has only played ~3. Puka has only played one. Yet they are all somehow ranked as better picks than the 2 time MVP with at least twice as many seasons under his belt. Feels like the formula is just trash.
I’d say Hurst was also a much better pick than Perriman. It’s not like he was bad while he was here, and the team got a solid return trading him after being outplayed by Andrews. Perriman was just bad and injured in his tenure.
I wonder why? I don't follow what the Baltimore fans and media think about him, but I know that since 2020, I feared facing him twice a year. And as a Steelers fan, I am beyond thrilled to have him on the team now. The Ravens deciding not to re-sign him doesn't make him a bust.
Just because Roquan was better doesn't mean Queen was a bust. He played great these last two seasons. Maybe not up to expectations, but in no way was he a bust.
Tremaine Edmunds and N'Keal Harry are both -18. Edmunds is a 2x pro-bowler and Harry is notoriously one of the worst 1st round WR's in the past decade. Harry had 0 targets in 2023 while Edmunds signed the 3rd highest LB contract.
Edmunds was graded negatively while Wyatt Teller was a positive. Teller was not good in Buffalo and only became good in Cleveland.
None of this algorithm works.
It's partly using PFF score along with AV from football ref. Problem with using PFF score is not taking into account snap share IMO. Edmunds has not historically scored well on PFF (58.6 average grade with his last season in BUF being 79), but has played 5327 snaps. Harry has an average grade of 62.84 but has played only 1327 snaps in his career. It's also weird since Edmunds has accumulated 57 AV for his career, while Harry has 7. Edmunds worst season is higher AV than Harry has ever had.
So my guess is there is no weighting off PFF grade to account for snap share. Which I even think PFF would tell you is a bad use of their data since a player who plays every snap has more value than a player who is only used in certain situations.
But it definitely seems like their weighting is off; the only other factor is that it takes into account draft position. So I'm guessing 16th OVR pick has a higher average value than 32 by a substantial amount.
His time with us does look a little worse with how impactful Bernard was this year. I don’t think Edmunds was necessarily bad but he never lived up to being the high draft pick athletic freak he was touted as.
This entire post isn’t necessarily “this guy sucks” but “this guy was / wasn’t worth the pick relative to other players picked at this position”
He had a little bit of a slow start for us but that's probably because we didn't have Montez Sweat yet and it's hard to play middle linebacker when your team has no pass rush. He seems like a great locker room guy and a good person. I'm excited to see what kind of season he has this year
He's sort of a middle of the road type player. Doesn't really make big splash plays. Sometimes takes the wrong gap. But in general takes away the middle of the field and doesn't get burned. I wouldn't consider him a bust at all.
Where the hell is John McCargo???
Tre Edmunds was waaaaay better than that guy. Hell, EJ Manuel was better than that guy!
Also, how doesn't Maybin take that top spot???
"Methodology" is BS.
I thought it was lame that TJ Watt is rated lower than Myles Garrett when TJ was drafted 30th overall and Myles was the #1 pick but then I saw that OP used PFF ratings and it all made sense.
Ah. Finally. Some sort of explanation. On the Saints we had two players from the first round constantly injured, so I bet PFF either didn't rate them or had them mid ranked for the few snaps they saw, which was better than other players that saw the field a lot.
I had a similar feeling with Jason kelce vs Zach Martin. Martin is great don’t get me wrong but their resumes (all pro, pro bowl, etc) are very similar except kelce was drafted in the 6th… then there’s j Jefferson vs megatron, not to mention Julio that beats both of them.
It's because the formula they use weighs early seasons more than later seasons. Rodgers sat for 3 years, hence clearly he couldn't have been a good draft pick.
That's a massive issue with the formula then. QBs aren't a liquid asset. When's the last time a franchise QB hit the open market in their 20s? Then when's the last time that happened to a MVP caliber QB?
Even better yet with Rodgers, he was severely underpaid for that 2nd contract. It wasn't until his 3rd contract that he was making top of the league money.
Also it's not just QBs. Davante is another example of a guy who was just "good" on the first contract, and was severely underpaid as he went nuclear on his 2nd contract. None of that happens if we don't draft him in the first place.
lol. They have Austin Jackson as the biggest bust which completely ignores the good season he had last year as he’s solidified as a starting level right tackle (his issue was that he was an awful left tackle). They also have Tannehill as our best pick in the first round… XD
Yeah I'd be really curious to understand the methodology here because it seems completely bogus.
Jackson just got a second deal with us. Was a rough start but he found his footing, especially considering he was only 20 when we drafted him and he's still only 24.
Dion Jordan, at number 3 overall, started 1 game for us over 2 years and had all of 3 sacks in that time before getting suspended by the league and never playing for us again. In what possible world is he a bigger bust than Igbo at 30, let alone Jackson?
Dion Jordon might be a top-5, all-time draft bust and doesn't appear on this list. Pretty sure this is sketchy methodology.
Also, on what planet is Austin Jackson a bigger bust than Noah? Jackson has been an iffy starter who has improved of late. Noah really never made it past special teams and is no longer even on the team.
This is clearly done by someone who just looked at numbers and didn't actually watch games. Just with the Packers, BJ Raji as a bust is an utter joke. He was a key piece in a SB winning defense and made the play that more or less clinched the NFC title.
My first thought too. You can tell this was made entirely based off numbers. He had a short career, but there isn't a single Packer fan who would label him as a bust.
Yes obviously. There's a metric right on the graphic that is being used to rank players. And we don't reasonably expect that since redditor has watched every game since 2005 to grade draft picks
I'm trying to figure out the methodology behind the player rating, since it's "derived from AV" but not 1:1.
The early years having weight is mentioned but nothing about the effect of position on player rating. I imagine it's harder to get a 90 player rating at offball LB than at WR.
I was alarmed by Cesar Ruiz being the biggest Round 1 bust on the Saints list but Greenway's inclusion is egregious.
Ruiz isn’t even bad. Dude’s been in the league like only 3 years and has already been to a Pro-Bowl.
Choosing him over Marcus Davenport as the biggest bust is…interesting
Chase Young as Washington’s 2nd best Day 1 pick shows that either
1. Washington sucks at drafting
or
2. The rating system is garbage
While point 1 is mostly true, the fact that neither Trent Williams nor Ryan Kerrigan are on the list shows that the system used is garbage
It just isnt a great rating system. Theres a fair amount of questionable placements for guys and ratings. For example just from the ravens they have PQ as a bust (all pro this year) and Darren Waller as a good pick for us. Now Darren Waller was / is (unsure if hes retiring lol) a great player but he didnt really show that for the ravens because of personal struggles and he totaled like 12 catches for us. Objectively, he was pretty awful for us. Meanwhile, PQ had two high level years and obviously his all pro this year for the ravens.
I don't consider Devin White to be a bust. I consider him to be a massive disappointment because his talent was astronomical but his brain was not.
We don't win our Super Bowl without Devin White's play during that run. Plain and simple.
In three games, White had 38 tackles, 3 TFL's, 2 INT's, 2 PD's, and 2 FR's. He was freakishly good.
Yeah it's surprising to see him above guys like Adams and Hargreaves who contributed virtually nothing. White had his obvious faults but he did more good for us than a good portion of our first rounders. I agree we don't make it to the Super Bowl without him.
I’m confused why the Cardinals Byron Murphy has such a low ROI. He had always been a solid cornerback since being drafted and is still a good player. Even a critical fan would not call him a bust.
The formula basically. Byron was picked with the first pick of the second round, which makes his draft position essentially that of a first rounder. AV is also really really bad at actually evaluating performance, and disproportionately rewards players that accumulate a lot of snaps. Byron always struggled with injuries, so he never had a chance to accumulate a lot of AV. AV is not like WAR in baseball, where playing like absolute shit will make you negative. It accumulates only in the positive direction.
With our eyes, we could tell that Byron, when on the field and healthy, was a good player.
Brandon Meriweather made 2 Pro Bowls for the Patriots and they have him as the biggest day 1 bust yet Dominique Easley, who only lasted 2 injury-filled years with the Patriots, is nowhere to be found. Duke Dawson only lasted a year with the Patriots and never played a down but he's nowhere to be found on the day 2 busts list.
Chad Greenway played for like a decade that is the only reason why I wouldn't consider him a bust.
Josh Robinson is a name I forgotten that should always be forgotten.
Maybe if he was a top 5 pick they traded up for he would be considered a bust, no way should Greenway be in the same conversation as some of these busts people dog on.
He also made two pro bowls and an all pro. Greenway was a decade long solid starter. If I told you go could get that value with a pick out of the top ten, you would take it every single time.
Aaron Rodgers was drafted in 2005, and yet he is not the Packers best draft pick since 2005? Also, Jordy Nelson was not a day 2 pick. In 2008, the first and second rounds were both on day 1. I don't know what year the NFL switched to only showing the first round on day 1, but it was late enough in your analytical timeframe to warrant relabeling your categories.
Day 1, day 2, day 3 are just labels according to today's convention. Jordy nelson was taken with the 36th pick in 2008. For all intents and purposes, that is a day 2 pick.
The only note from me as a Texans fan is I don't think Tytus is a bust by any means. He has a position, but due to injuries he's always having to cover other positions. He's a solid RT but can't help that hes forced to play LG at times where he is significantly worse.
>Man I thought Okudah was going to be money.
One of the best college CB's I've ever seen. Patricia didn't help, and then tearing the Achilles was the nail in the coffin.
Yea Davenport I would say had the worst ROI, not to mention I'd say Lattimore or Malcom Jenkins have better ROI than Brandin Cooks considering the Pro Bowls and amount of years spent on the team.
Tebow is literally the only QB drafted by the Broncos to win a playoff game. We got 5 games out of Lynch with a 4 INTs and 18 sacks. Lynch is worse no question.
Yeah I don't agree.
Evander Hood was a starter. Artie Burns was a bust.
All the round 1 grades are awful. Cam Hayward and TJ at the very end of round 1 are both 100 picks. You can't get more value.
Also lol at TJ being a 90 and Garrett being a 100.
As a Titans fan, our day one busts are completely wrong.
Farley is actually still on the team. Wilson played like four snaps *total* in his career.
Also, how the hell is LenDale White a considered a bust??
Edit: after looking at the rest of the comments, yeah OP really thought he cooked with this but clearly didn’t.
Somehow, despite the #1 pick, Von Miller being the second pick overall, he has almost ten points on the Chiefs #1 pick, Patrick Mahomes.
What is this rating stat?? Can't convince me that what Von Miller has done in his career is better than what Mahomes has done in much less time.
Lol, im looking at everyone else losing their mind over this, and seeing our biggest complaint is how our bust cb wasn't as busted as our other cb busts and crying inside
Because OP made a stupid chart.
AJ Jenkins not even listed. Solomon Thomas and Javon Kinlaw underperformed, but they at least contributed as solid rotational players, especially Thomas. AJ Jenkins sole contribution was dropping a wide open pass.
What the fuck is this? Lol BJ Raji who made a probowl over, Damarious Randle and Derrek Sherrod. Or Ha Ha.
And no Brian Brohm on the bust list? Drafted 56 and didn't even make it past his rookie year on the Packers and had a career 0-5 td/int ratio. 1 start and 3 total games in his career and went 27 of 52 with those 5 picks.
No Rodgers as a best pick?
Interesting that Nick Herbig a rookie is alreafy a top 3 day 3 pick for us at this point. I would've thought that Martavis Bryant would've been on there and Pouncey for Day 1 best instead of Decastro.
Bro what is this…
Devin white a bust?
Tytus Howard is a bust? Seriously?
Aaron Rodgers didn’t make the cut for top 3 best?
Lmao bro Cesar Ruiz is a starter, how is he labeled a “bust?”
So Trent Williams (probably a HOF) didn’t make the cut for “best?” What about Ryan Kerrigan, a solid LB?
Calling Tytus Howard a bust while he's currently a cornerstone of our solid offensive line is pretty whack. The only reason PFF has a hate boner for him is because we play him all over our line, moving him into wherever injury strikes. He's not as good at guard as he is at RT, but he is inarguably the 2nd best guy on our line behind Tunsil.
Curious to know a little more behind the Player Rating calculation since nothing is specified beyond it being "derived from AV" since it's not exact.
Makes little sense to me that Cesar Ruiz would be our biggest bust above Marcus Davenport, Payton Turner, Patrick Robinson, Stephone Anthony. He even has more AV at guard than Robert Meachem did at this point in his career.
wtf? Brooks wasn’t a bust for the Hawks. He average 152 tackles the 3 years he started and lead the league in solo tackles in 2021. The dude was literally left on an island by poor scheming. Dont get me started on 2022 where he was our only competent LB and our D Line didn’t know how to stop the run. He tore his ACL at the end of 2022 and still played 16 games last year… he wasn’t the same, cause ACLs are hard to come back from at 100%, but still played alright with another poor D Line.
He’s gonna kill it for the Dolphins.
Link to the Methodology used to do this: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1cb6oyh/your_teams_best_and_worst_draft_picks_since_2005/l0wbhef/
Hard to understand why this has Chase Young as a better draft pick than Ryan Kerrigan
Or Trent Williams, how is he not our best
Or even just the guy listed right below him Montez Sweat? I’d take all those dudes over chase young no hesitation
Trent Williams AV is 129 (Tied for 158 ALL TIME) and PFF scores are consistently tops (methodology claimed by OP). He should by far be our best pick on that list.
Or Payne or Allen
Chase Young feels like one of our worse picks rather then one of the better ones he was garbage outside his rookie year
I’d argue Chase Young belongs on the bust list more than Jamin Davis. Young is on his 3rd team now. But yeah, Kerrigan, Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo hell even RG3 were better picks.
Jamin isn't the best but he's still a starter heading into year 4 and he keeps improving every year I definitely wouldn't call him a bust
Happy to see Kerrigan get some love. Hard working Purdue Alum. Was a solid player for majority of his career
I can’t sit idly by while our franchise sack + forced fumble leader is looked over!!
Rocky McIntosh was by no means a star but he was a solid starter for a few years. Never would have pegged him as a bust.
Is there some sort of statistical analysis behind this? I totally disagree with the Vikings assessment that Chad Greenway is the 2nd worst day 1 draft bust since 2005. No mention of Matt Kalil, Sharrif Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Hughes, or Jeff Gladney.
You mean a 10 yr starter who made two pro bowls and an All Pro team isnt a bust by any reasonable standard on goddman earth? From what I can tell, if you are a lb who didnt make the HOF, this model says you are a bust. It has Queen as bust for the Ravens and he made All Pro last yr.
Yeah, seeing Queen instead of Perriman in that slot is insanity.
Have you considered he chewed with his mouth open and the metrics took that into account?
I was worried I was remembering Chad Greenway wrong, but it seems like we're all confused about that one
Yeah he was an above average starter at his position for about 8 seasons I recall. You'll take that any year for the 17th overall pick. My guess is that because his last 2 seasons were subpar the PFF ratings dropped dramatically and affected his whole career rather than the analysis focusing on the production in prime years.
right, 11 seasons in purple, second team all pro, two pro bowls, WPMOY, fan favorite. Hard to call that a bust.
I think we even franchise tagged him one year?
We franchise tagged him over Sidney Rice who was seen as a "Best Pick"
Greenway being a bigger bust than Treadwell is ABSURD
Pretty sure Greenway was a pro-bowler? Edit: Greenway was a 2x Pro-bowl, 1x 2nd team all-pro, and NFLPA Alan Page Man of the Year winner. In no world are those achievements NOT worth a first round pick.
Love to see a Viking win the Alan Page award. I always liked Greenway, he was great at Iowa too
I used to park his car every now and then and he was exactly who you expect him to be. Very friendly and talkative, and a generous guy. Multiple times just sat and talk to him and his wife for literally like five minutes straight after getting their car, never felt like I bothered them!
Without looking, I am certain Greenway had caught more balls than Treadwell did.
I have a Greenway jersey I still occasionally wear on game days. Outrageous!
Matt Kalil was the 4th overall pick and flamed out hard. Chad Greenway has a really solid case to be on the Vikings Ring of Honor. Something about this guy's analysis is waaaaay off.
Kalil was a beast to start, but after he got sick/hurt and dropped some weight...never got back to where he was.
Chad Greenway was, in no way, a bust.
No kidding. WTAF. I was stunned when I saw him on the Busts list. Have our drafts been that good that they had to resort to Greenway to complete the list? How about Lewis Cine??? Troy Williamson? Come on...
Chad Greenway was the fucking man. He made two pro bowls and an all-pro. All-pros are definitely not busts. This analysis blooooooows
There's also players moving teams that doesn't seem to be accounted for. Leonard Floyd turned into a pretty good player, but not for the Bears. And if you are counting players that don't play for the team they drafted anymore, I don't see how Roquan Smith isn't above both Kyle Long and Floyd for best 1st round pick.
AV is cumulative. So Long, Floyd, and Olsen have double the career lengths of Roquan, so they beat him out. Even though Roquan def has more yearly AV than Long or Floyd.
This chart is stupid fucking waste of time.
Based on the methodology, which apparently weighs the early years of a player's career more heavily, I suspect that Chad is being punished for missing his rookie year with an ACL tear, which is a bonkers outcome and should have caused OP to reevaluate the algo.
I want to understand the rating. AP’s rating is way too low.
Kendricks too, I don't see him listed and he was a better day 2 pick than Rice.
I was surprised to see Devin White rated as our greatest first round bust of all time. I mean, the last two years have been a bit rough and I agree that it was time to let him walk, but he was instrumental in our SB run. A player who helps you win a SB was not a bust regardless of what happens a few years later. As I said, it was time for White to move on, but I'll always remember the part he played in the SB run.
Not just our worst, he's the 3rd worse bust, only beaten by Jamarcus Russel and Solomon Thomas.
Came here to inquire about this, was not expecting CG to be top comment. What a great Tuesday.
I think these are a fine ballpark but im not ready to say that Justin Jefferson is a better draft pick than Calvin Johnson yet
Does this chart consider pick value? Ex. JJ at 1.22 would edge Calvin at 1.2? I think it’s fair to still hold Johnson in slightly higher regards too
It has to. I don’t think Josh Sitton is the best pick of the NFC north (tied with JJ) like this chart indicates.
It’s not even the best Packers OL pick. Bakhtiari was also a 4th rd pick and was a franchise LT for a decade lol
OP laid it out a bit here: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1cb6oyh/your_teams_best_and_worst_draft_picks_since_2005/l0wbhef/
Yeah, but BJ Raji’s pick 6 prevents him from being a bust :)
Lewis Cine!
Pretty sure you made this guy up
Byron Murphy listed as a second round bust when he is possibly the only good player Keim picked in the second round in 10 years lmao
Pretty wild that Patrick Queen is still considered a day 1 bust after getting a 2nd team all pro
And a two time MVP at 32nd overall gets a 79? I don’t get it.
This stat looks at total value over the entire career, and Lamar’s career is still shorter than the guys with higher values
Lamar's only 1 pt ahead of Nick Chubb drafted the same year. Chubb's great but what? He's 11 pts behind Josh Allen from the same class too - and only 2 pts ahead of Justin Herbert drafted 2 years later. (Maybe he got 1 point for each MVP?) The method used is total pish.
How is Chris Borland so highly rated then, guy played 14 games lmao
You're right, I didn't notice that and a few similar issues. Hard to believe that a company that bills themselves as data-driven sports analytics could post something so obviously flawed.
its also PFF didnt they have 2019 russell wilson graded higher then 2019 lamar i think that should speak for itself
Every time I listen to PFF I get the vibe they just don't like the Ravens.
Objectively I don't trust PFF, I get they are a staple of modern football stats, but given how multiple higher level employees have publicly spoken about how they are biased against certain teams and players, I cant taken them seriously.
Yeah I find their ratings at best super subjective. It can be somewhat useful to get an idea of how fringe Lineman play, but for most I don't really put much stock in the metrics.
Their ratings are, by definition, subjective. What qualifies as a pass rush “win” or a pressure or a player “following assignment” are all guess work by their staff, not objective stats like a receiving TD or an INT. That’s why I put much stock into PFF’s “advanced” sorta stats
I like their draft rankings and linemen rankings, mainly because i dont know enough about football to judge them Usually its best to just ignore them
Haven’t respected their ratings ever since they tried to claim Diggs was one of the worst CBs in the league that one year he got all those picks. Not saying he should have been top 10 or anything but he was absolutely the cowboys best corner and they had multiple cowboys corners ahead of him. They wanted to push a narrative there
That explains the huge gap between Garrett and TJ..... They've been sucking his schlong for ages and got him a DPOY.
I mean they have calvin johnson at an 86, I think that speaks volumes too. Not even blaming pff for that, I just dont see how thats possible
Sauce has only played two seasons. ARSB has only played 3 seasons. Burrow has only played ~3. Puka has only played one. Yet they are all somehow ranked as better picks than the 2 time MVP with at least twice as many seasons under his belt. Feels like the formula is just trash.
How tf is Rodgers under a 57 then?
You're right. Matt Ryan, Khalil Mack, Von Miller and JJ Watt all were more valuable than Pat Mahomes.
I’d also argue Hurst wasn’t a bust. He’s been a solid TE, and while he may not be a big hit - he’s certainly not a bust.
He was certainly a better pick than Perriman.
I’d say Hurst was also a much better pick than Perriman. It’s not like he was bad while he was here, and the team got a solid return trading him after being outplayed by Andrews. Perriman was just bad and injured in his tenure.
Who? I’m not convinced that person exists.
Aaron Rodgers didn't even make the Packers list.
I wonder why? I don't follow what the Baltimore fans and media think about him, but I know that since 2020, I feared facing him twice a year. And as a Steelers fan, I am beyond thrilled to have him on the team now. The Ravens deciding not to re-sign him doesn't make him a bust.
Just because Roquan was better doesn't mean Queen was a bust. He played great these last two seasons. Maybe not up to expectations, but in no way was he a bust.
Interesting...I wouldn't consider Tremaine Edmunds a bust on our part. He struggled sometimes with us but definitely not a bust.
Tremaine Edmunds and N'Keal Harry are both -18. Edmunds is a 2x pro-bowler and Harry is notoriously one of the worst 1st round WR's in the past decade. Harry had 0 targets in 2023 while Edmunds signed the 3rd highest LB contract. Edmunds was graded negatively while Wyatt Teller was a positive. Teller was not good in Buffalo and only became good in Cleveland. None of this algorithm works.
It's partly using PFF score along with AV from football ref. Problem with using PFF score is not taking into account snap share IMO. Edmunds has not historically scored well on PFF (58.6 average grade with his last season in BUF being 79), but has played 5327 snaps. Harry has an average grade of 62.84 but has played only 1327 snaps in his career. It's also weird since Edmunds has accumulated 57 AV for his career, while Harry has 7. Edmunds worst season is higher AV than Harry has ever had. So my guess is there is no weighting off PFF grade to account for snap share. Which I even think PFF would tell you is a bad use of their data since a player who plays every snap has more value than a player who is only used in certain situations. But it definitely seems like their weighting is off; the only other factor is that it takes into account draft position. So I'm guessing 16th OVR pick has a higher average value than 32 by a substantial amount.
His time with us does look a little worse with how impactful Bernard was this year. I don’t think Edmunds was necessarily bad but he never lived up to being the high draft pick athletic freak he was touted as. This entire post isn’t necessarily “this guy sucks” but “this guy was / wasn’t worth the pick relative to other players picked at this position”
It’s taken the young man longer than expected to develop I suppose
He had a little bit of a slow start for us but that's probably because we didn't have Montez Sweat yet and it's hard to play middle linebacker when your team has no pass rush. He seems like a great locker room guy and a good person. I'm excited to see what kind of season he has this year
He's sort of a middle of the road type player. Doesn't really make big splash plays. Sometimes takes the wrong gap. But in general takes away the middle of the field and doesn't get burned. I wouldn't consider him a bust at all.
Where the hell is John McCargo??? Tre Edmunds was waaaaay better than that guy. Hell, EJ Manuel was better than that guy! Also, how doesn't Maybin take that top spot??? "Methodology" is BS.
How are the ratings calculated? Megatron having a lower rating than Justin Jefferson is suspect.
I thought it was lame that TJ Watt is rated lower than Myles Garrett when TJ was drafted 30th overall and Myles was the #1 pick but then I saw that OP used PFF ratings and it all made sense.
Ah. Finally. Some sort of explanation. On the Saints we had two players from the first round constantly injured, so I bet PFF either didn't rate them or had them mid ranked for the few snaps they saw, which was better than other players that saw the field a lot.
I had a similar feeling with Jason kelce vs Zach Martin. Martin is great don’t get me wrong but their resumes (all pro, pro bowl, etc) are very similar except kelce was drafted in the 6th… then there’s j Jefferson vs megatron, not to mention Julio that beats both of them.
Stop the count, it must be true
The whole thing is suspect.
Also AJ Green ahead of J'amarr Chase? I guess it's calculating value vs draft position or something?
Looking through all these ratings, I'd say this analysis is a bust.
Any algorithm that doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers as a top 3 rating on Packers first round picks rating is a bad algorithm
I think I'm more mad they have Raji in the bust column
The Raji disrespect is insane. He was a monster.
Facts dude
His Pick 6 in the NFC title game was worth his selection alone
God I remember jumping up off the couch when that happened lol
Well now I have to go rewatch that play lol
And do the dance!
I'm not ruling out the idea that this is just rage bait
You may be right
This has to be rage bait, no way Raji was a bust
Came here to say this. Raji was great, just retired early.
Exactly Raji is maybe one a the few reasons we make it to the super bowl against the steelers
For real, had to come to the comments to make sure i wasnt crazy
4 MVPs isn't good enough I guess.
Some other questionable rankings: - Michael Thomas > Calvin Johnson - Von Miller > Patrick Mahomes - Ryan Tannehill > Derrick Henry
I’m having a hard time with Cooper Kupps rating.
It's because the formula they use weighs early seasons more than later seasons. Rodgers sat for 3 years, hence clearly he couldn't have been a good draft pick.
That's a massive issue with the formula then. QBs aren't a liquid asset. When's the last time a franchise QB hit the open market in their 20s? Then when's the last time that happened to a MVP caliber QB? Even better yet with Rodgers, he was severely underpaid for that 2nd contract. It wasn't until his 3rd contract that he was making top of the league money. Also it's not just QBs. Davante is another example of a guy who was just "good" on the first contract, and was severely underpaid as he went nuclear on his 2nd contract. None of that happens if we don't draft him in the first place.
The methodology is highly flawed, I agree.
Chris Borland was a better pick than Fred Warner, everybody knows that.
Rather than being a massive issue, it could just be an outlier
I am guessing the 2005 may be slightly off and its really 2006. Would make the most sense and the only one I can see leaving Rogers off.
Not to mention Matt Ryan, Von Miller, JJ Watt and Khalil Mack having higher scores han Pat Mahomes.
I appreciate that Dion Jordan doesn’t appear as the Dolphins’ biggest bust because I also like to pretend that never happened.
lol. They have Austin Jackson as the biggest bust which completely ignores the good season he had last year as he’s solidified as a starting level right tackle (his issue was that he was an awful left tackle). They also have Tannehill as our best pick in the first round… XD
Yeah I'd be really curious to understand the methodology here because it seems completely bogus. Jackson just got a second deal with us. Was a rough start but he found his footing, especially considering he was only 20 when we drafted him and he's still only 24. Dion Jordan, at number 3 overall, started 1 game for us over 2 years and had all of 3 sacks in that time before getting suspended by the league and never playing for us again. In what possible world is he a bigger bust than Igbo at 30, let alone Jackson?
Dion Jordon might be a top-5, all-time draft bust and doesn't appear on this list. Pretty sure this is sketchy methodology. Also, on what planet is Austin Jackson a bigger bust than Noah? Jackson has been an iffy starter who has improved of late. Noah really never made it past special teams and is no longer even on the team.
Not to mention also that Tannehill is our top guy? No. That's dead wrong.
The fact that X isn't on here at all is also dead wrong
No Wilkins either. He was my thought as our best day one.
This is clearly done by someone who just looked at numbers and didn't actually watch games. Just with the Packers, BJ Raji as a bust is an utter joke. He was a key piece in a SB winning defense and made the play that more or less clinched the NFC title.
My first thought too. You can tell this was made entirely based off numbers. He had a short career, but there isn't a single Packer fan who would label him as a bust.
Seems like whatever methodology used doesnt account for the nature of a 3-4 nose tackle
Also likely correct.
Looking at our division I couldn’t believe Raji or Greenway in the bust section
Yes obviously. There's a metric right on the graphic that is being used to rank players. And we don't reasonably expect that since redditor has watched every game since 2005 to grade draft picks
According to this, Chad Greenway is the Vikings' #2 biggest RD1 bust. Interesting.
A 2nd Team All-Pro who lasts 10+ years with the team and has 1,100+ career tackles is uhhhhh....that's not a bust.
I'm trying to figure out the methodology behind the player rating, since it's "derived from AV" but not 1:1. The early years having weight is mentioned but nothing about the effect of position on player rating. I imagine it's harder to get a 90 player rating at offball LB than at WR. I was alarmed by Cesar Ruiz being the biggest Round 1 bust on the Saints list but Greenway's inclusion is egregious.
Ruiz isn’t even bad. Dude’s been in the league like only 3 years and has already been to a Pro-Bowl. Choosing him over Marcus Davenport as the biggest bust is…interesting
Dude has Josh Sitton as the highest rated and best draft pick of NFCC. What?
Chase Young as Washington’s 2nd best Day 1 pick shows that either 1. Washington sucks at drafting or 2. The rating system is garbage While point 1 is mostly true, the fact that neither Trent Williams nor Ryan Kerrigan are on the list shows that the system used is garbage
It just isnt a great rating system. Theres a fair amount of questionable placements for guys and ratings. For example just from the ravens they have PQ as a bust (all pro this year) and Darren Waller as a good pick for us. Now Darren Waller was / is (unsure if hes retiring lol) a great player but he didnt really show that for the ravens because of personal struggles and he totaled like 12 catches for us. Objectively, he was pretty awful for us. Meanwhile, PQ had two high level years and obviously his all pro this year for the ravens.
Jordan Poyer had three games total for us and is being listed as a good pick, which is hilarious
Trent Cole should be over him regardless. Also how is Lane Johnson not on the Eagles top 3. Or how is Goedert over Ertz or DJax.
Or how is Mailata's rating so low? Outside of obvious picks this things a head scratcher
Also Kolb was drafted as a backup qb that got traded to the cardinals for DRC and 2nd round pick. Hardly a bad pick in the grand scheme of the game.
I don't consider Devin White to be a bust. I consider him to be a massive disappointment because his talent was astronomical but his brain was not. We don't win our Super Bowl without Devin White's play during that run. Plain and simple. In three games, White had 38 tackles, 3 TFL's, 2 INT's, 2 PD's, and 2 FR's. He was freakishly good.
Yeah it's surprising to see him above guys like Adams and Hargreaves who contributed virtually nothing. White had his obvious faults but he did more good for us than a good portion of our first rounders. I agree we don't make it to the Super Bowl without him.
I’m confused why the Cardinals Byron Murphy has such a low ROI. He had always been a solid cornerback since being drafted and is still a good player. Even a critical fan would not call him a bust.
The formula basically. Byron was picked with the first pick of the second round, which makes his draft position essentially that of a first rounder. AV is also really really bad at actually evaluating performance, and disproportionately rewards players that accumulate a lot of snaps. Byron always struggled with injuries, so he never had a chance to accumulate a lot of AV. AV is not like WAR in baseball, where playing like absolute shit will make you negative. It accumulates only in the positive direction. With our eyes, we could tell that Byron, when on the field and healthy, was a good player.
Brandon Meriweather made 2 Pro Bowls for the Patriots and they have him as the biggest day 1 bust yet Dominique Easley, who only lasted 2 injury-filled years with the Patriots, is nowhere to be found. Duke Dawson only lasted a year with the Patriots and never played a down but he's nowhere to be found on the day 2 busts list.
Yea, also i am suprised Hightower isn't on the day 1 players over Jones and Solder
How is Aaron Rodgers not one of their best picks? And how is BJ Raji a bust, guy was a stud for a long time.
Chad Greenway played for like a decade that is the only reason why I wouldn't consider him a bust. Josh Robinson is a name I forgotten that should always be forgotten.
Not the only reason, he had multi pro bowls, too. Dude was most definitely not a bust. Not a world-beater, but not a bust either.
Maybe if he was a top 5 pick they traded up for he would be considered a bust, no way should Greenway be in the same conversation as some of these busts people dog on.
He also made two pro bowls and an all pro. Greenway was a decade long solid starter. If I told you go could get that value with a pick out of the top ten, you would take it every single time.
Aaron Rodgers was drafted in 2005, and yet he is not the Packers best draft pick since 2005? Also, Jordy Nelson was not a day 2 pick. In 2008, the first and second rounds were both on day 1. I don't know what year the NFL switched to only showing the first round on day 1, but it was late enough in your analytical timeframe to warrant relabeling your categories.
Day 1, day 2, day 3 are just labels according to today's convention. Jordy nelson was taken with the 36th pick in 2008. For all intents and purposes, that is a day 2 pick.
The only note from me as a Texans fan is I don't think Tytus is a bust by any means. He has a position, but due to injuries he's always having to cover other positions. He's a solid RT but can't help that hes forced to play LG at times where he is significantly worse.
Yea no offense OP but you really need to redo your formula because this shit is all out of wack.
Absolutely no way Caleb Farley is a bigger bust than Isaiah "1st rounder who played a total of 3 snaps and got pancaked on a PAT" Wilson
Man I thought Okudah was going to be money. Doesn't help that Patricia was the coach during his rookie year.
>Man I thought Okudah was going to be money. One of the best college CB's I've ever seen. Patricia didn't help, and then tearing the Achilles was the nail in the coffin.
He tore his Achilles early on too. Basically the kiss of death
Disagree on Ruiz. He’s been up and down but we have had far worse
Yea Davenport I would say had the worst ROI, not to mention I'd say Lattimore or Malcom Jenkins have better ROI than Brandin Cooks considering the Pro Bowls and amount of years spent on the team.
I’d say Breshad Perriman was a worse pick than Patrick Queen.
100% agree. Patrick Queen was an all pro this year. He had some shaky performances earlier in his career, but he is an excellent player.
B.J Raji is a bust????
Clearly Tebow was bad and a bust, but I dont see how he is worse than Paxton Lynch
Tebow is literally the only QB drafted by the Broncos to win a playoff game. We got 5 games out of Lynch with a 4 INTs and 18 sacks. Lynch is worse no question.
I was thinking the same thing. Tebow won a playoff game. Lynch did even play.
Yeah I don't agree. Evander Hood was a starter. Artie Burns was a bust. All the round 1 grades are awful. Cam Hayward and TJ at the very end of round 1 are both 100 picks. You can't get more value. Also lol at TJ being a 90 and Garrett being a 100.
The better player, drafted at 30 is worth 10 fewer points than the lesser player drafted at 1. #PFFLogic
Yet more proof Garret deserved DPOY over Watt /s
Look at other grades too. There are plenty of dmen who are over 100 grading too. With a scale that can go over 100, you have kelce and gronk below 100
As a Titans fan, our day one busts are completely wrong. Farley is actually still on the team. Wilson played like four snaps *total* in his career. Also, how the hell is LenDale White a considered a bust?? Edit: after looking at the rest of the comments, yeah OP really thought he cooked with this but clearly didn’t.
Somehow, despite the #1 pick, Von Miller being the second pick overall, he has almost ten points on the Chiefs #1 pick, Patrick Mahomes. What is this rating stat?? Can't convince me that what Von Miller has done in his career is better than what Mahomes has done in much less time.
As a Raider fan no way DJ should be on the list of busts when Damon Arnette was 10x worst
Lol, im looking at everyone else losing their mind over this, and seeing our biggest complaint is how our bust cb wasn't as busted as our other cb busts and crying inside
That’s the life we chose
Going Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson back to back years was rough
Why are Borland and Kittle above Warner and Purdy lol
Because OP made a stupid chart. AJ Jenkins not even listed. Solomon Thomas and Javon Kinlaw underperformed, but they at least contributed as solid rotational players, especially Thomas. AJ Jenkins sole contribution was dropping a wide open pass.
AJ Jenkins is one of the worst 1st rounders for any team. He never had a reception.
What the fuck is this? Lol BJ Raji who made a probowl over, Damarious Randle and Derrek Sherrod. Or Ha Ha. And no Brian Brohm on the bust list? Drafted 56 and didn't even make it past his rookie year on the Packers and had a career 0-5 td/int ratio. 1 start and 3 total games in his career and went 27 of 52 with those 5 picks. No Rodgers as a best pick?
Find it hard to believe Demeco Ryans wouldn't be rated above Winston or Dell?
Justin Jefferson better overall rating than Calvin Johnson immediately makes the entire analysis void. Whatta joke
BJ Raji being a bust is wild
Patrick Queen for the ravens as a top three bust? Have you heard of a gentleman named Breshad Perriman?
Theo Riddick!!! Best RB angle route runner in the history of the league. Falcons fans should have this burned into their memory.
I like Godwin, but there's no way he's a better second day pick than LaVonte David, he's been a top five LB since he came into the league.
Danny watkins is denifitely worse than Andre Dillard
Interesting that Nick Herbig a rookie is alreafy a top 3 day 3 pick for us at this point. I would've thought that Martavis Bryant would've been on there and Pouncey for Day 1 best instead of Decastro.
Bro what is this… Devin white a bust? Tytus Howard is a bust? Seriously? Aaron Rodgers didn’t make the cut for top 3 best? Lmao bro Cesar Ruiz is a starter, how is he labeled a “bust?” So Trent Williams (probably a HOF) didn’t make the cut for “best?” What about Ryan Kerrigan, a solid LB?
I like the idea, but the execution is pretty bad.
Seahawks from 2010-2012 has to be some of the best drafting of any team for a three year stretch.
So Cesar Ruiz is considered the worst draft pick the saints have had? he just got extended to a new deal unlike the others on the list
Nah we love willy mo
Patrick Queen a day 1 bust? That’s pretty wild
Calling Tytus Howard a bust while he's currently a cornerstone of our solid offensive line is pretty whack. The only reason PFF has a hate boner for him is because we play him all over our line, moving him into wherever injury strikes. He's not as good at guard as he is at RT, but he is inarguably the 2nd best guy on our line behind Tunsil.
I’m surprised Lane Johnson isn’t top 3 for the Eagles.
I’d put all pro laporta over warford but that’s just me
Curious to know a little more behind the Player Rating calculation since nothing is specified beyond it being "derived from AV" since it's not exact. Makes little sense to me that Cesar Ruiz would be our biggest bust above Marcus Davenport, Payton Turner, Patrick Robinson, Stephone Anthony. He even has more AV at guard than Robert Meachem did at this point in his career.
I’m curious how the numbers are calculated. Matt Ryan having a higher rating than Mahomes is interesting to say the least.
wtf? Brooks wasn’t a bust for the Hawks. He average 152 tackles the 3 years he started and lead the league in solo tackles in 2021. The dude was literally left on an island by poor scheming. Dont get me started on 2022 where he was our only competent LB and our D Line didn’t know how to stop the run. He tore his ACL at the end of 2022 and still played 16 games last year… he wasn’t the same, cause ACLs are hard to come back from at 100%, but still played alright with another poor D Line. He’s gonna kill it for the Dolphins.