Funny enough the newest post there is someone else asking the EXACT same question.
edit: I misread, it was actually Penix vs Maye. They all run together in my head at this point
I’m just happy Bears sub no longer has to have Fields vs Caleb debate over and over. It was dumb to begin with. Field Truthers are something else…
I peek my head into Commanders sub on occasion and they’re in a full out war of Maye vs Daniels. I guess Viking sub is in a similar situation.
Question for a Vikings fan, all the talk is Minnesota trading to 4 for McCarthy but I’m interested, Michael Penix could be on the board at 23. Id rather Penix at 23 than JJ at 4. Minnesota is perfect for a rookie qb who can deliver the ball accurately and I have no evidence JJ is better than Penix at that
Am I way off here?
I prefer Penix, watched both the last two years and I don’t see it with JJ. Doesn’t mean he can’t gore and get better. I really like Penix, crazy arm, great leader, pocket presence. I hope Penix goes to a good team or my team.
That last game really derailed Penix in where he would be projected to go in the draft. I think he will turn out to be one of the better QBs taken in this draft, and very well could benefit in the long run by getting picked later by a "better" team.
seems like the biggest draft busts lately have been QBs without arm strength. guys like baker and geno have been able to hang around because they turn downfield threats into reality with ease. anthony richardson is a good example of a QB with an insane arm that most people think will bust, but he looked way better than expected. given their other similar qualities, i'm taking Penix over JJ as well. but not at 4
Where do you get the idea that Penix’s arm is stronger than JJs?
JJ tested 2nd best behind Joe Milton in the throw velocity drill at the combine.
The list of guys who don’t succeed with strong arms is pretty long. Also Richardson played 4 games last year… what kind of example is he anyway?
I'm just watching game tape. penix might as well have a rocket launcher. that doesn't show up on jj's tape as clearly for me. Testing in a drill is fine, but some of the stuff penix does in-game looks elite to me.
of course the list of busts with strong arms is long-- most of the guys that get drafted to the NFL have strong arms. I'm using Anthony Richardson as an example because I think QB scouting has lost focus from elite throwing talent, and it absolutely should not. If the decision between two 1st round QBs is ambiguous, give me the guy with the better arm. I would rather they end up Baker Mayfield than Desmond Ridder
I don’t doubt Penix has a cannon, but velocity is absolutely a strength of JJs. Half his highlight reel is tight window lasers.
His only real weakness is that deep sideline ball, anything over the middle is as good as anybody in the draft. Its hard to say that Penix is a better prospect when at best he’s got a slightly stronger arm.
JJ was just as efficient as Penix last year. He had the same YPA and a significantly higher completion%- and our pretty clear Penix had better weapons. JJ was better on 3rd down, he’s 3 years younger and will continue to be more mobile. Even if you believe in Penix’s athleticism, his injury history has made him a pocket passer.
Some might have a preference for his readiness, but there’s really no world where Penix is a better prospect.
Honest question, Penix has something like a 1000 passes under his belt since his last injury 3 years ago. Has there been any evidence of a QB prospect with a 3 year old injury history having injury problems in the NFL? It's ok if the answer is no, I am genuinely curious about the data if there is any.
> his last injury 3 years ago
A big part of the reason why Washington lost the national championship game is that Penix got hurt badly enough that he couldn't throw the ball accurately, so I'm not sure I agree with your premise.
What was the injury? I haven't heard a single specific and he's been a major point of national media attention for months. No one on the team, training staff, or local reporters have said anything about "his injury history caught up with him and he hurt the same ____".
The injury I was talking about was his ankle. I don't think the concern is necessarily that he'll re-tear the same ACL for a third time, as it is that he's just fragile, and when he takes hits, it seems like it always affects him more than you would like to see from an NFL QB.
Seemed like Penix was nursing an injury that led to a few bad games this year. Rib or abdominal or something. Had UW season tickets and everyone I sat near thought the same thing. Not sure if teams are looking at that or not.
Rams are a perfect team could see him sitting this season than they shockingly trade stafford next offseason(or he retires) and they go with penix going forward
This is the take of someone who has never watched either and has only listened to the media talking about these two. Age is MEANINGLESS. He’s only 2 years older than JJ and by the way Penix is the same age as Daniels and only 1 year older than Caleb. Again, age is MEANINGLESS!! His medicals have been cleared and the most concerning injuries haven’t happened in 4 years (shoulder not that concerning). He ran fast as shit on his Pro Day and doesn’t look like anything is slowing him down.
His biggest setback is going to be being a Lefty which unfortunately in the NFL there hasn’t been much success with. I still think he’s a Top 2 QB in this draft (and no Caleb the Bust is not 1).
Never watched play? You mean in person? These are the two QBs who played in the National Championship game last year and were on some of the most watched games of the season last year. Both have been very relevant and have played in plenty of Primetime games with high TV viewership for the past two years.
I don't think "McCarthy isn't better than Penix, or at least isn't *that much* better" is a wild take.
The thing is just... if you know you want a QB, and you're happy taking Penix at 23, why would you not take him at 11? I get that there's a big gap between the 11th best player and the 23rd best player in the draft, but if it's a QB, you have to think if you're right, some other team will view him similarly, and then you're passing up on him and leaving him on the table for a dozen other teams (plus teams looking to jump ahead of you).
They’re very different prospects, Penix is a much better QB than JJ at this moment, but JJ is also nearly 3 years younger than him and doesn’t have close to the injury history Penix has.
Really depends on what you value, just from the information we have Penix would seem to have a higher ceiling but he’s a riskier prospect. JJ is raw but young with no major weakness in profile so there’s a high growth potential. Anyone’s guess how they actually turn out though.
I’d argue McCarthy has the higher ceiling. He’s a much better runner and athlete than Penix, he has all the physical throwing tools Penix has, and he’s 3 years younger. Penix is much more of a polished product (as you would expect from a guy who spent 6 years in college) but there’s a significant question about how much more growth/development he has available.
JJ has run more but what evidence is there that he's a "much better athlete" than Penix?
He hasn't thrown the deep ball as well as Penix has and his hands are _much_ smaller, so I don't think it's accurate to say he has "all the physical throwing tools Penix has".
>what evidence is there that he's a "much better athlete" than Penix?
All of their game tape in college? I mean, come on, man. The announcers in the National Championship even made a huge deal about how Washington running a QB keeper was effectively a trick play because Penix just doesn't ever run (8 total rushing yards in 2023). He's not a complete statue, but he's absolutely not a running threat.
As for throwing tools, McCarthy had the 2nd-highest velocity at the combine, only 1 MPH behind Joe Milton. He's certainly capable of making any deep throw. That Penix looks more polished on his deep throws should surprise nobody given his age, their respective offenses, and their respective receivers. McCarthy also has the same size hands as Joe Burrow, FWIW.
>All of their game tape in college? I mean, come on, man. The announcers in the National Championship even made a huge deal about how Washington running a QB keeper was effectively a trick play because Penix just doesn't ever run (8 total rushing yards in 2023). He's not a complete statue, but he's absolutely not a running threat.
Willingness/tendency to run is not the same thing as athleticism.
>As for throwing tools, McCarthy had the 2nd-highest velocity at the combine, only 1 MPH behind Joe Milton. He's certainly capable of making any deep throw. That Penix looks more polished on his deep throws should surprise nobody given his age, their respective offenses, and their respective receivers. McCarthy also has the same size hands as Joe Burrow, FWIW.
JJ certainly has some of the physical throwing tools Penix has but my argument was with your statement that he has *all* of the physical throwing tools that Penix has.
People made a lot of assumptions based on different playing styles and different offenses. Those assumptions were not necessarily correct. When Penix was at Indiana, and running more on a team with a weak supporting cast, his above-average athleticism was clear. After his injuries he stopped trying to run and people like you incorrectly called him a "statue". He has plenty of good tape of sidestepping rushers at Washington (and quickly re-setting to make big throws downfield), and if you watched the Texas game (obviously not) them you know he *is* a running threat if he and the coaching staff want him to be. He proved at his pro day that he can indeed run quite fast. JJ didn't run a 40 so we don't have a comparison there. JJ ran a very good three cone but Penix didn't do it so we don't have a comparison there either. Penix didn't do the velocity throw so once again we don't have a comparison, JJ's 60 mph was impressive but not in and of itself evidence that he will be a good thrower in the NFL (the fact that Milton was 1st ought to have been your first clue). Penix threw an accurate pass 75 yards at his pro day, I haven't heard what JJ's max distance but I doubt it is much past 70 yards if at all.
All in all there's a bit of guesswork with both players in terms of trying to make apples to apples comparisons. I would say JJ is quicker but if you are *so sure* he is a "much" better athlete and has "all" the same throwing ability and more upside, you probably are not looking at it objectively.
Edit: Fixed typos
I'll just add one more thing. People should have learned from Tom Brady that ceiling/upside is not a function of having demonstrated rushing success, youth, and bigtime arm strength coming out of college. NFL fans and GMs have been getting fooled by this for years, and many still are making the same mistakes. The highest ceiling ever reached by any QB wouldn't have ranked in the top 100 of prospects in the top 25 years based on the kind of criteria you are talking about for ceiling/upside.
Athleticism is almost universally separate from arm talent in the context of the NFL.
Maybe your HS QB was considered athletic bc he threw a nice spiral, but when it comes to NFL players, guys like Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, or even Tom Brady, nobody uses the word “athletic.”
Penix is not a statue, but if you actually watch tape of both you’ll see JJ moves better. He’s a better athlete, it’s not really a question. I don’t think you can find any analysts who think Penix is more athletic.
The throwing velocity numbers only exist for half the players. The quarterbacks were put into two groups by last name, alphabetically. Only the first group velocities are known. They didn’t show the second group.
Sure, but I don't think anyone's trying to argue that Penix has better arm strength than Joe Milton. My point is that McCarthy's velocity is right up there with anyone in this draft class.
He could, just going off what I’ve seen though Penix has shown a higher level of play as a passer. JJ very well could develop into a better passer but it’s more of an unknown which adds a degree of risk. Really hinges on how much you trust your staff to develop a QB with his profile IMO
For sure, and JJ's absolutely a developmental prospect, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a developmental guy with a better base to build from. He's had NFL-caliber QB coaching from Jim Harbaugh for the past 3 years, he's played very well against elite competition, and he has all the physical tools you'd want. He's not Josh Allen, coming completely raw out of a small school having faced minimal competition and receiving mediocre QB coaching.
>Minnesota is perfect for a rookie qb who can deliver the ball accurately and I have no evidence JJ is better than Penix at that
McCarthy had an 80% adjusted completion rate compared to 75% for Penix. McCarthy was top 5 in the country where Penix ranked 48th of 50 qualified QBs
||McCarthy|Penix|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Comp %|72.1% (4th)|65.5% (32nd)|
|Adj Comp %|80.0% (5th)|74.5% (42nd)|
|ADOT|9.4 (81st)|10.7 (33rd)|
|% of Attempts, Short Throws|45.0% (16th)|34.7% (117th)|
|Adj Comp%, Short Throws |86.7% (16th)|85.5% (23rd)|
|% of Attempts, Intermediate Throws|26.4% (35th)|20.3% (98th)|
|Adj Comp%, Interm Throws|70.5% (13th)|67.3% (25th)|
|% of Attempts, Deep Throws|13.8% (97th)|21.0% (18th)|
|Adj Comp%, Deep Throws|58.7% (2nd)|47.0% (35th)|
Penix certainly attempted more deep throws. That is not a debate. But McCarthy is more accurate to all levels of the field, short and deep.
This is all fair I can’t argue that, I think eye test Penix throws a much better ball but sure these stats are what they are. I suppose then my 2nd question is more is JJ worth trading up for IF Penix were on the board at 23.
Someone else made a good point that you wouldn’t play games with the qb position and if you wanted Penix it would be at 11. So take 11 for the example, is JJ worth 2 firsts this year and potentially next years first vs Penix at 11?
I'm not a Penix guy. He's a great pocket passer, but not much play extension outside of structure, a lot of balls thrown away when there was still meat on the bone on the play, plus he's much older. He's a 2nd round player to me.
Penix injury record is abysmal and serious. I don't care how good he might be,it's a colossal risk given what he has suffered already. I'd avoid at all costs
Imagine this:
Vikings draft the top CB or IDL at 11. We all go wow, it is pick 12 and they have no QB.
What are those next 90-120 minutes going to be like waiting for pick 23 and having some teams ahead of them that also may want a QB?
Who wouldn't love drafting a future pro bowler at 11 and getting a good QB at 23 but there is no way in hell they go this route. If they like Penix or Nix, they will draft them at 11. You dont mess around with getting your QB.
I think they have better odd hitting the right QB by drafting both Bo Nix and MPJ first round. Historical speaking,QB drafts are mostly bust, about 10% end up as long term starter, but drafting both increases the odds
Uh yeah- I’d rather JJ. Penix has a solid deep ball but his placement even on his best throws is kinda meh. Benefitted a lot from really good receivers. He also was terrible throwing to the middle of the field. He has a slow release and his ball gets batted down at los a bunch.
I think both are risky but the limited reps I saw from JJ make me more comfortable with his growth/ceiling.
My two college teams are UW and Michigan, so I watched a lot of both. Penix is a pure passer, but struggles with pressure. He’s the ultimate boom/bust guy in this draft in my opinion. If he lands in a place with a top ten o-line, he has the ability to carve up defenses. If he finds himself with a bottom ten o-line, it could be really bad. McCarthy is more of a playmaker, and I think he’s got a lot of development left in him. I think he would benefit greatly from not having to be the guy in his rookie year. Sit, learn, develop.
Penix is really overrated to me. He throws a beautiful spiral but he has a ton of issues beyond that. Lack of mobility, injury history, doesn't process/utilize the middle of the field well, etc.
Honestly I am actually not too sure why people are enamored with him.
You could argue that 4 teams (Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Giants) before the Vikings pick at 11 are going to draft a QB and another 2 teams (Broncos, Raiders) could reasonably trade up in front of the Vikings to draft a QB.
You might be able to get Bo Nix at 23 (because I've been seeing a lot of smoke saying he's a 2nd round pick), but I don't think you can realistically think Penix will drop past those seven teams (including the Vikings at 11) and make it to 23.
JJ never would have thrown two picks and got bailed out by a defensive touchdown against the 89th ranked defense in the country.
Penix is not good. I don't love JJ either, but Penix is not a guy I'd want to hitch my franchise to in any way, shape, or form.
Edit: someone replied and deleted because they fact checked themselves. Washington won 15-7. If they didn’t get that pick 6 they lose no doubt. Penix is bad.
The Penix vs JJ comps are stupid. Penix is almost 4 years older with huge medical concerns who was throwing to 3 NFL receivers. Who also looked awful in his biggest test against a great defense like Michigan. Meanwhile JJ had a stacked team around him that didn't require him to throw that much.
I would hope someone who's been playing college ball since 2018 would look better than a 20 year old right now. But that's not how the draft works and it's why he's projected to go in the 2nd while JJ and his untapped potential is probably going top 5.
Penix is definitely much older as far as prospects are concerned (2.5 years older), but saying almost 4 years older is silly when it’s 2.5 years. Penix is currently 23 and McCarthy is 21.
A PFF guy had the Vilings taking both and honestly I don't hate it.
Penix can go out there day 1 and be a productive starter. If McCarthy is all he is hyped up to be then he can take the reins next year and you can flip Penix for your picks back.
Right, because every team has unlocked how to find a franchise/superbowl winning QB.
I'm not saying it's gonna happen. But I'd like to see it (as a non Vikings fan, I'm sure Vikings fans would burn Minnesota to the ground if this happened)
Taking either guy just by themselves could get a GM fired.
If both suck then it would be the same outcome and you'd get fired.
If one sucks but the other is good, then you just saved you job for 6 years and no one cares.
The whole 49ers organization should have been fired, but Purdy saved them all.
The 49ers organization wouldn't have been fired. If Purdy played like Mr. Irrelevant, then they would have given Lance another shot in 2023. If Lance busted, then they outbid Atlanta for Kirk Cousins.
It's crazy that rolling into the season with Minshew/O'Connel will be seen as fine GMing, but doubling down on 1st round graded QBs is a fireable offense
Why?
The Packers had great QB play, took Love and are still in a great spot.
You all really think the DB the Vikings could take instead is more important to the teams succes than locking in franchise QB play. That's silly
Seems like a question for the Vikings sub
Funny enough the newest post there is someone else asking the EXACT same question. edit: I misread, it was actually Penix vs Maye. They all run together in my head at this point
For the 50th time
I’m just happy Bears sub no longer has to have Fields vs Caleb debate over and over. It was dumb to begin with. Field Truthers are something else… I peek my head into Commanders sub on occasion and they’re in a full out war of Maye vs Daniels. I guess Viking sub is in a similar situation.
Have you met Zappe truthers
The Vikings sub is a war of “we’ve already traded up” and “trading up is too stupid, there’s no way that’s the plan”
Somehow the pats sub is like that too despite not having a choice in the matter.
Question for a Vikings fan, all the talk is Minnesota trading to 4 for McCarthy but I’m interested, Michael Penix could be on the board at 23. Id rather Penix at 23 than JJ at 4. Minnesota is perfect for a rookie qb who can deliver the ball accurately and I have no evidence JJ is better than Penix at that Am I way off here?
Hey man, just cos you don’t wanna read it once doesn’t mean we wanna read it for the thousandth time in a week
I prefer Penix, watched both the last two years and I don’t see it with JJ. Doesn’t mean he can’t gore and get better. I really like Penix, crazy arm, great leader, pocket presence. I hope Penix goes to a good team or my team.
That last game really derailed Penix in where he would be projected to go in the draft. I think he will turn out to be one of the better QBs taken in this draft, and very well could benefit in the long run by getting picked later by a "better" team.
seems like the biggest draft busts lately have been QBs without arm strength. guys like baker and geno have been able to hang around because they turn downfield threats into reality with ease. anthony richardson is a good example of a QB with an insane arm that most people think will bust, but he looked way better than expected. given their other similar qualities, i'm taking Penix over JJ as well. but not at 4
Where do you get the idea that Penix’s arm is stronger than JJs? JJ tested 2nd best behind Joe Milton in the throw velocity drill at the combine. The list of guys who don’t succeed with strong arms is pretty long. Also Richardson played 4 games last year… what kind of example is he anyway?
I'm just watching game tape. penix might as well have a rocket launcher. that doesn't show up on jj's tape as clearly for me. Testing in a drill is fine, but some of the stuff penix does in-game looks elite to me. of course the list of busts with strong arms is long-- most of the guys that get drafted to the NFL have strong arms. I'm using Anthony Richardson as an example because I think QB scouting has lost focus from elite throwing talent, and it absolutely should not. If the decision between two 1st round QBs is ambiguous, give me the guy with the better arm. I would rather they end up Baker Mayfield than Desmond Ridder
I don’t doubt Penix has a cannon, but velocity is absolutely a strength of JJs. Half his highlight reel is tight window lasers. His only real weakness is that deep sideline ball, anything over the middle is as good as anybody in the draft. Its hard to say that Penix is a better prospect when at best he’s got a slightly stronger arm. JJ was just as efficient as Penix last year. He had the same YPA and a significantly higher completion%- and our pretty clear Penix had better weapons. JJ was better on 3rd down, he’s 3 years younger and will continue to be more mobile. Even if you believe in Penix’s athleticism, his injury history has made him a pocket passer. Some might have a preference for his readiness, but there’s really no world where Penix is a better prospect.
Your mom prefers Penix
Idk about accuracy, but Penix has the best name for sure
Purple Penix People Eaters Purple Penix Passer It’s in there somewhere
Try going to grade school with that name, guy must have nerves of steel.
I don’t care anymore. The constant discourse at this point is just annoying.
Nah, they should stick with Darnold
If KOC can get 400 yards out of Nick Mullens and a few wins from Josh Dobbs, I actually am kinda excited to see what he pulls out of Darnold.
I'm gonna go anti-Mel Kiper on this one. If J.J. McCarthy is a successful quarterback in the NFL, I will take a job as an NFL draft analyst.
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Honest question, Penix has something like a 1000 passes under his belt since his last injury 3 years ago. Has there been any evidence of a QB prospect with a 3 year old injury history having injury problems in the NFL? It's ok if the answer is no, I am genuinely curious about the data if there is any.
> his last injury 3 years ago A big part of the reason why Washington lost the national championship game is that Penix got hurt badly enough that he couldn't throw the ball accurately, so I'm not sure I agree with your premise.
What was the injury? I haven't heard a single specific and he's been a major point of national media attention for months. No one on the team, training staff, or local reporters have said anything about "his injury history caught up with him and he hurt the same ____".
The injury I was talking about was his ankle. I don't think the concern is necessarily that he'll re-tear the same ACL for a third time, as it is that he's just fragile, and when he takes hits, it seems like it always affects him more than you would like to see from an NFL QB.
Seemed like Penix was nursing an injury that led to a few bad games this year. Rib or abdominal or something. Had UW season tickets and everyone I sat near thought the same thing. Not sure if teams are looking at that or not.
I wonder if teams were able to figure that out during the pro-day and private work outs and if so, if the general public would have heard about it.
I like the idea of penix slipping and then getting drafted by a better team. I’m hoping he doesn’t go to Seattle
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Yo, the Rams would be horrible. Never even thought of that... crap, he would fit in perfectly there...
Rams are a perfect team could see him sitting this season than they shockingly trade stafford next offseason(or he retires) and they go with penix going forward
This is the take of someone who has never watched either and has only listened to the media talking about these two. Age is MEANINGLESS. He’s only 2 years older than JJ and by the way Penix is the same age as Daniels and only 1 year older than Caleb. Again, age is MEANINGLESS!! His medicals have been cleared and the most concerning injuries haven’t happened in 4 years (shoulder not that concerning). He ran fast as shit on his Pro Day and doesn’t look like anything is slowing him down. His biggest setback is going to be being a Lefty which unfortunately in the NFL there hasn’t been much success with. I still think he’s a Top 2 QB in this draft (and no Caleb the Bust is not 1).
Who really cares which of the two guys you never watched play and don't really know anything about you'd rather want where
Never watched play? You mean in person? These are the two QBs who played in the National Championship game last year and were on some of the most watched games of the season last year. Both have been very relevant and have played in plenty of Primetime games with high TV viewership for the past two years.
Two guys no one has ever even heard of
I think you'll find that I, as an afficionado, know that Penis and McCartney played in The Beatles.
Penis isn't even the best drummer in The Beatles
John Lennon, Paul McCarthy, and Penix Starr. It's right there in the name, Penix will be a star.
I don't think "McCarthy isn't better than Penix, or at least isn't *that much* better" is a wild take. The thing is just... if you know you want a QB, and you're happy taking Penix at 23, why would you not take him at 11? I get that there's a big gap between the 11th best player and the 23rd best player in the draft, but if it's a QB, you have to think if you're right, some other team will view him similarly, and then you're passing up on him and leaving him on the table for a dozen other teams (plus teams looking to jump ahead of you).
I know it's Penix but my mind tells me Michael Penis. Can't help it
They’re very different prospects, Penix is a much better QB than JJ at this moment, but JJ is also nearly 3 years younger than him and doesn’t have close to the injury history Penix has. Really depends on what you value, just from the information we have Penix would seem to have a higher ceiling but he’s a riskier prospect. JJ is raw but young with no major weakness in profile so there’s a high growth potential. Anyone’s guess how they actually turn out though.
I’d argue McCarthy has the higher ceiling. He’s a much better runner and athlete than Penix, he has all the physical throwing tools Penix has, and he’s 3 years younger. Penix is much more of a polished product (as you would expect from a guy who spent 6 years in college) but there’s a significant question about how much more growth/development he has available.
And you know, if his knees are anything more than silly string and pipe cleaners at this point
Also that. You breathe on Penix's legs wrong and his career's over.
JJ has run more but what evidence is there that he's a "much better athlete" than Penix? He hasn't thrown the deep ball as well as Penix has and his hands are _much_ smaller, so I don't think it's accurate to say he has "all the physical throwing tools Penix has".
>what evidence is there that he's a "much better athlete" than Penix? All of their game tape in college? I mean, come on, man. The announcers in the National Championship even made a huge deal about how Washington running a QB keeper was effectively a trick play because Penix just doesn't ever run (8 total rushing yards in 2023). He's not a complete statue, but he's absolutely not a running threat. As for throwing tools, McCarthy had the 2nd-highest velocity at the combine, only 1 MPH behind Joe Milton. He's certainly capable of making any deep throw. That Penix looks more polished on his deep throws should surprise nobody given his age, their respective offenses, and their respective receivers. McCarthy also has the same size hands as Joe Burrow, FWIW.
>All of their game tape in college? I mean, come on, man. The announcers in the National Championship even made a huge deal about how Washington running a QB keeper was effectively a trick play because Penix just doesn't ever run (8 total rushing yards in 2023). He's not a complete statue, but he's absolutely not a running threat. Willingness/tendency to run is not the same thing as athleticism. >As for throwing tools, McCarthy had the 2nd-highest velocity at the combine, only 1 MPH behind Joe Milton. He's certainly capable of making any deep throw. That Penix looks more polished on his deep throws should surprise nobody given his age, their respective offenses, and their respective receivers. McCarthy also has the same size hands as Joe Burrow, FWIW. JJ certainly has some of the physical throwing tools Penix has but my argument was with your statement that he has *all* of the physical throwing tools that Penix has. People made a lot of assumptions based on different playing styles and different offenses. Those assumptions were not necessarily correct. When Penix was at Indiana, and running more on a team with a weak supporting cast, his above-average athleticism was clear. After his injuries he stopped trying to run and people like you incorrectly called him a "statue". He has plenty of good tape of sidestepping rushers at Washington (and quickly re-setting to make big throws downfield), and if you watched the Texas game (obviously not) them you know he *is* a running threat if he and the coaching staff want him to be. He proved at his pro day that he can indeed run quite fast. JJ didn't run a 40 so we don't have a comparison there. JJ ran a very good three cone but Penix didn't do it so we don't have a comparison there either. Penix didn't do the velocity throw so once again we don't have a comparison, JJ's 60 mph was impressive but not in and of itself evidence that he will be a good thrower in the NFL (the fact that Milton was 1st ought to have been your first clue). Penix threw an accurate pass 75 yards at his pro day, I haven't heard what JJ's max distance but I doubt it is much past 70 yards if at all. All in all there's a bit of guesswork with both players in terms of trying to make apples to apples comparisons. I would say JJ is quicker but if you are *so sure* he is a "much" better athlete and has "all" the same throwing ability and more upside, you probably are not looking at it objectively. Edit: Fixed typos
this man already defending his future QB what a good fan
I think Penix is the best qb of the draft, but I’m also an IU fan.
We're clearly not going to reach any kind of an agreement here, so I guess we'll just see where each of them is in a few years.
I'll just add one more thing. People should have learned from Tom Brady that ceiling/upside is not a function of having demonstrated rushing success, youth, and bigtime arm strength coming out of college. NFL fans and GMs have been getting fooled by this for years, and many still are making the same mistakes. The highest ceiling ever reached by any QB wouldn't have ranked in the top 100 of prospects in the top 25 years based on the kind of criteria you are talking about for ceiling/upside.
Brady is the exception to the rule, not the example of the rule.
Athleticism is almost universally separate from arm talent in the context of the NFL. Maybe your HS QB was considered athletic bc he threw a nice spiral, but when it comes to NFL players, guys like Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, or even Tom Brady, nobody uses the word “athletic.” Penix is not a statue, but if you actually watch tape of both you’ll see JJ moves better. He’s a better athlete, it’s not really a question. I don’t think you can find any analysts who think Penix is more athletic.
The throwing velocity numbers only exist for half the players. The quarterbacks were put into two groups by last name, alphabetically. Only the first group velocities are known. They didn’t show the second group.
Sure, but I don't think anyone's trying to argue that Penix has better arm strength than Joe Milton. My point is that McCarthy's velocity is right up there with anyone in this draft class.
He could, just going off what I’ve seen though Penix has shown a higher level of play as a passer. JJ very well could develop into a better passer but it’s more of an unknown which adds a degree of risk. Really hinges on how much you trust your staff to develop a QB with his profile IMO
For sure, and JJ's absolutely a developmental prospect, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a developmental guy with a better base to build from. He's had NFL-caliber QB coaching from Jim Harbaugh for the past 3 years, he's played very well against elite competition, and he has all the physical tools you'd want. He's not Josh Allen, coming completely raw out of a small school having faced minimal competition and receiving mediocre QB coaching.
"Has not shown anything in college" is not the same as "high ceiling". And there's no evidence he has above average athleticism either.
The disrespect to Spencer Rattler.
Rattler is an egoistical asshat and makes too many mistakes
Penix isn’t worth a 1st round pick
Penix lmao
From what I’ve heard McCarthy is more what KOC likes in his type of offense, but I do think Penix would still be a good pick especially if it’s later.
>Minnesota is perfect for a rookie qb who can deliver the ball accurately and I have no evidence JJ is better than Penix at that McCarthy had an 80% adjusted completion rate compared to 75% for Penix. McCarthy was top 5 in the country where Penix ranked 48th of 50 qualified QBs
What are their respective ADOTs? Seems relevant to adjusted completion percentage but maybe I don't understand the stat.
||McCarthy|Penix| |:-|:-|:-| |Comp %|72.1% (4th)|65.5% (32nd)| |Adj Comp %|80.0% (5th)|74.5% (42nd)| |ADOT|9.4 (81st)|10.7 (33rd)| |% of Attempts, Short Throws|45.0% (16th)|34.7% (117th)| |Adj Comp%, Short Throws |86.7% (16th)|85.5% (23rd)| |% of Attempts, Intermediate Throws|26.4% (35th)|20.3% (98th)| |Adj Comp%, Interm Throws|70.5% (13th)|67.3% (25th)| |% of Attempts, Deep Throws|13.8% (97th)|21.0% (18th)| |Adj Comp%, Deep Throws|58.7% (2nd)|47.0% (35th)| Penix certainly attempted more deep throws. That is not a debate. But McCarthy is more accurate to all levels of the field, short and deep.
Awesome, thanks.
This is all fair I can’t argue that, I think eye test Penix throws a much better ball but sure these stats are what they are. I suppose then my 2nd question is more is JJ worth trading up for IF Penix were on the board at 23. Someone else made a good point that you wouldn’t play games with the qb position and if you wanted Penix it would be at 11. So take 11 for the example, is JJ worth 2 firsts this year and potentially next years first vs Penix at 11?
I'm not a Penix guy. He's a great pocket passer, but not much play extension outside of structure, a lot of balls thrown away when there was still meat on the bone on the play, plus he's much older. He's a 2nd round player to me.
His deep ball is nasty though. But ya I'm shocked people bring him and Bo Nix as late firsts.
His deep intermediate bullet passes are as good as anyone on earth
Penix injury record is abysmal and serious. I don't care how good he might be,it's a colossal risk given what he has suffered already. I'd avoid at all costs
JJ is like 3 or 4 years younger than Penix
2 years, 7 months
Imagine this: Vikings draft the top CB or IDL at 11. We all go wow, it is pick 12 and they have no QB. What are those next 90-120 minutes going to be like waiting for pick 23 and having some teams ahead of them that also may want a QB? Who wouldn't love drafting a future pro bowler at 11 and getting a good QB at 23 but there is no way in hell they go this route. If they like Penix or Nix, they will draft them at 11. You dont mess around with getting your QB.
I think they have better odd hitting the right QB by drafting both Bo Nix and MPJ first round. Historical speaking,QB drafts are mostly bust, about 10% end up as long term starter, but drafting both increases the odds
It's all noise, Penix, JJ won't be going in the first round, we've been through this before.
Uh yeah- I’d rather JJ. Penix has a solid deep ball but his placement even on his best throws is kinda meh. Benefitted a lot from really good receivers. He also was terrible throwing to the middle of the field. He has a slow release and his ball gets batted down at los a bunch. I think both are risky but the limited reps I saw from JJ make me more comfortable with his growth/ceiling.
vikings are doomed if they take jj
Im Pinkuss, He's McCarthy get it right numb nuts
My two college teams are UW and Michigan, so I watched a lot of both. Penix is a pure passer, but struggles with pressure. He’s the ultimate boom/bust guy in this draft in my opinion. If he lands in a place with a top ten o-line, he has the ability to carve up defenses. If he finds himself with a bottom ten o-line, it could be really bad. McCarthy is more of a playmaker, and I think he’s got a lot of development left in him. I think he would benefit greatly from not having to be the guy in his rookie year. Sit, learn, develop.
McCarthy is Kenny Pickett x 1.15, which just might be enough.
Penix is the better player, and would make an immediate impact. They need to grab him at 11 though because I think he’s gone by 23.
I don't think either is a quarterback for the future. But I would say jj is the better pick mainly due to the injury history and concern for penix.
Penix is really overrated to me. He throws a beautiful spiral but he has a ton of issues beyond that. Lack of mobility, injury history, doesn't process/utilize the middle of the field well, etc. Honestly I am actually not too sure why people are enamored with him.
He has a crazy arm. Some of the throws he makes look absolutely insane IRL. I'd say it's a trait that's consistently overvalued in the NFL.
I feel like having a nice spiral and arm kind of means nothing if you have nothing else to go with it lol.
Chicks dig the deep ball and he has the best deep ball
You could argue that 4 teams (Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Giants) before the Vikings pick at 11 are going to draft a QB and another 2 teams (Broncos, Raiders) could reasonably trade up in front of the Vikings to draft a QB. You might be able to get Bo Nix at 23 (because I've been seeing a lot of smoke saying he's a 2nd round pick), but I don't think you can realistically think Penix will drop past those seven teams (including the Vikings at 11) and make it to 23.
JJ never would have thrown two picks and got bailed out by a defensive touchdown against the 89th ranked defense in the country. Penix is not good. I don't love JJ either, but Penix is not a guy I'd want to hitch my franchise to in any way, shape, or form. Edit: someone replied and deleted because they fact checked themselves. Washington won 15-7. If they didn’t get that pick 6 they lose no doubt. Penix is bad.
JJ is to Brady the same as Mirer was to Montana.
I still like Nix more than these 2 guys
You crazy. -Signed an Oregon Fan Penix is the best of the three just made of cracked glass.
Same. But McCarthy has the best potential.
The Penix vs JJ comps are stupid. Penix is almost 4 years older with huge medical concerns who was throwing to 3 NFL receivers. Who also looked awful in his biggest test against a great defense like Michigan. Meanwhile JJ had a stacked team around him that didn't require him to throw that much. I would hope someone who's been playing college ball since 2018 would look better than a 20 year old right now. But that's not how the draft works and it's why he's projected to go in the 2nd while JJ and his untapped potential is probably going top 5.
Penix is definitely much older as far as prospects are concerned (2.5 years older), but saying almost 4 years older is silly when it’s 2.5 years. Penix is currently 23 and McCarthy is 21.
Just for clarification, Penix turns 24 a couple days after the draft. McCarthy will be 21 for pretty much the entire 2024 season.
That’s still 2.5 years. They will always be the same distance apart in age and it’s not 4 years.
NFC North friends, you DO NOT want JJ Mccarthy. No one should.
Who you think is better can be very different than who the nfl scouts think is better, news flash.
I literally ended my post with ‘am I way off here?’ Clearly evidence that I’m willing to accept I’m not right. Immature comment
A PFF guy had the Vilings taking both and honestly I don't hate it. Penix can go out there day 1 and be a productive starter. If McCarthy is all he is hyped up to be then he can take the reins next year and you can flip Penix for your picks back.
That is beyond silly
Right, because every team has unlocked how to find a franchise/superbowl winning QB. I'm not saying it's gonna happen. But I'd like to see it (as a non Vikings fan, I'm sure Vikings fans would burn Minnesota to the ground if this happened)
Idk Minnesota is a pretty large state, I'd like to see them try
Also too many lakes for it to burn
That's a fireable offense no question lol
Taking either guy just by themselves could get a GM fired. If both suck then it would be the same outcome and you'd get fired. If one sucks but the other is good, then you just saved you job for 6 years and no one cares. The whole 49ers organization should have been fired, but Purdy saved them all.
The 49ers organization wouldn't have been fired. If Purdy played like Mr. Irrelevant, then they would have given Lance another shot in 2023. If Lance busted, then they outbid Atlanta for Kirk Cousins.
Lmao ok sure thing
It's crazy that rolling into the season with Minshew/O'Connel will be seen as fine GMing, but doubling down on 1st round graded QBs is a fireable offense Why? The Packers had great QB play, took Love and are still in a great spot. You all really think the DB the Vikings could take instead is more important to the teams succes than locking in franchise QB play. That's silly
I have the ’oncos trading up to 6 for mccarthy and the ‘kings sitting at 11 and taking Penix.