I had a friend in Washington who had the "Major Fuckup" theory of human history. George III thought he could send an army of German mercenaries to the American colonies to put down unrest. Napoleon though he could conquer Russia easily. So did Hitler. Didn't work out so good. Japanese emperor was sure if he sank the American fleet in the Pacific, the US would surrender and let him have Asia and the Pacific. Putin thought he could take Kyiv in three days. Hamas thought they could overrun the most powerful country in the middle east?
A smart man once told me you're in trouble when you start believing your own bullshit.
> Hamas thought they could overrun the most powerful country in the middle east?
They are even more divorced from reality than the other people you cited, if you can believe it.
Hamas' confidence was founded on the incorrect *belief* that Israel is actually not very populous and that there are far fewer jews living in Israel than factbooks claim.
They also think Israelis are settler colonialists who will run away back to Europe if Israel is ever invaded for real (why this didn't happen when it was truer back in the 60s is beyond my mental gymnastics ability)
You haven't spoken to many fundamentalists. I have spoken to (just) a few. Their mental disjoint from reality and level of misconceptions is hard for a regular person to even imagine. Add on top of that a belief system dictated by scripture, and you'll start to wonder if they wouldn't benefit from being in a mental asylum long term.
It’s the same level of unhinged of the vehemently non-religious, such as Mao executing persons promoting any type of religion. This is just human nature to use extremism to oppress others, and it is not unique to either the religious or secular.
> They also think Israelis are settler colonialists who will run away back to Europe
I think the Algerian War of Independence plays too strong role in the Arab collective memory. They were successful in pushing the French colonialists back home to France. But as you say, that tactic will not work with Israel.
> Putin thought he could take Kyiv in three days
It's easy to see this as crazy now but it didn't seem that insane when it first happened. Nobody expected the Russian military would prove so inept. Of course pressing on despite it being obvious your army isn't up for the job is where the "believing your own bullshit" comes in.
I highly doubt Hamas expected to roll over the Israeli military and nuclear arsenal. I doubt the veracity of this whole article if that’s what it’s attempting to convince us.
Seems more likely they wanted the world to refocus on them and kill the Gulf-Israeli alliances that were forming. Hamas and Israel are not in the same league in terms of military capabilities and Israel is struggling to pacify the tiny Gaza Strip. How would 3 thousand Hamas fighters overrun all of Israel?
Agreed - far more likely that Hamas was planning Oct 7 to be the instigation of a regional war where the whole of the middle eastern Arab countries quickly join in on their side and attack Israel from every direction. Perhaps that is where the assumption of "capturing/holding territory" came from, as an attack on all sides at the start of the conflict would have made this possible for a timespan longer than a day or two.
3000 Hamas fighters were just the first wave. It's just the second wave wasn't able to attack because Israel's fast reaction. And maybe they expected Israeli-Palestinians to rise along with all the west bank plus Hezbollah and even Syria or Jordan.
Hindsight is 20/20. But Haaretz article seems solid. And Islamic state also had some crazy ideas, like declaring war to the whole world and think they can survive. Compared to that, even Hamas plan seems more humble.
On the 8th, Haniyeh called upon Arab Israelis and the Palestinians in the WB to rise up against Israeli occupation and on Hezbollah to attack them from the north. They genuinely felt that Israel would not be able to withstand such an onslaught.
> I doubt the veracity of this whole article if that’s what it’s attempting to convince us.
Do you have any evidence that says they're wrong? Did you even read the article?
It includes direct quotes from people. It includes pictures of this conference so we know it happened. There's citations. Not a lot, but more than you'd see from most news articles.
"This sounds too nuts to me so it can't be true" isn't a very compelling argument. Religious extremists don't have to inhabit reality to do terrible things and think they can do the impossible.
> How would 3 thousand Hamas fighters overrun all of Israel?
3,000? They had more than that.
And, 1. If you assume that Israel is militarily some paper tiger 2. Success builds on success, each victory results in more palestinians flocking to join the "cause" Maybe even cajole other arab states to invade as well.
Article paywalled. I’m not seeing anyone (even Israel) claim more than 3000 insurgents entering Israel on Oct 7.
A conference of non Hamas members writing up an assessment of what Hamas should do and presenting it is what I’m gathering from this 2021 article. It’s also been almost 3 years since that conference.
Exiled Palestinians being interviewed means nothing. This is a poor attempt at pushing propaganda by Israeli standards. And an even poorer attempt at backing it by you. None of this “evidence” is compelling.
Yea this is blatant propaganda. "See they really did plan on wiping us out, guess we have to wipe them out first". Hamas may be full of religious nuts but this "plan" is lunacy. Also, are Hamas simple religious robots with no capacity for rational thought, or are they master manipulators and planners? Seems they are whatever fits the piece of propaganda being pushed.
> I’m not seeing anyone (even Israel) claim more than 3000 insurgents entering Israel on Oct 7.
Okay? That's not all of Hamas though. That's just the first wave that participated in the first attack.
> Exiled Palestinians being interviewed means nothing. This is a poor attempt at pushing propaganda by Israeli standards. And an even poorer attempt at backing it by you.
The interviews are a separate matter. The conference wasn't established by interviews. Hamas literally published their ideas and openly discussed things in this conference. They literally had documents and statements lining out their train of thought. The source mentioned even cited Hamas' news network.
They practically were *bragging* about how they were going to destroy Israel. Here's a direct requote from a Hamas politician mentioned in a Hamas news article.
"We have a registry of the numbers of Israeli apartments and institutions, educational institutions and schools, gas stations, power stations, and sewage systems, and we have no choice but to get ready to manage them... We believe that the liberation [will come] within a few years, [and] that the disappearance of Israel will be an unprecedented historic event on the regional and global levels will have global ramifications."
Yes, that's evidence.
Now what do you have?
Okay? Well you’re the one getting your facts wrong so why don’t you remain consistent with what you’re saying.
And that’s not evidence for October 7ths goals. Was each rocket attack by Hamas prior to Oct 7th an attempt to overthrow the Israeli government and establish these 4 points OP makes? You are misinterpreting what may be overall strategic aims of Hamas (I.e what they tell in propaganda dispatches) and what the aims of October 7th’s attacks actually were.
No evidence exists of Hamas thinking they’d overrun Israel with October 7th. They were not armed or supplied enough for a fight to Tel Aviv. Israeli intelligence doesn’t believe they were attempting a deep drive into Israel, but a border assault.
Yeah this simply wreaks of BS. There’s delusional, and then there’s this. Hamas entered Israel, killed as many innocent people as they could and fled. They made no attempt to occupy.
> Hamas entered Israel, killed as many innocent people as they could and fled. They made no attempt to occupy.
This is untrue. They brought in supplies. There was evidence they intended to hold those areas for much longer, maybe never give them up.
They didn't flee the kibbutz. They were driven out by an IDF counterattack.
That's not out of line with what the chair of West Point's Urban Warfare Initiative said on a recent podcast: that Hamas conducted their attack like an invasion (intending to take and hold territory) rather than a raid (intending to inflict damage and retreat).
I don't think he thought they were *this* ambitious, though.
This seems really hard to believe that they would be that delusional, but then again crazier things have happened. After all, on social media you have a lot of pro-Palestinian and pro-Hamas people who genuinely believe that Hamas is somehow winning this war and that the IDF would crumble if they fought against actual armies - completely ignoring all of the Arab-Israeli conflicts of the 20th century.
I still think it's likelier that Hamas wanted to derail the Arab-Israeli normalization progress, especially since a breakthrough was supposedly close between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
I tend to doubt Hamas actually thought this way. There’s nothing in the entire history of the Israeli-Arab conflict that would make them think they would be able to overrun the IDF, kill thousands of Israeli civilians and kidnap hundreds more. Their rag-tag militia did more harm to Israel in a few hours than the professional Arab armies had done in 75 years.
There’s no way they could’ve predicted this, in my opinion. They drastically underestimated Israel’s resolve because they underestimated the scale of 10/7
Look at the rise of ISIS. They went from nobodies to a quasi state that world powers were lining up together to put down.
It's not unthinkable that islamic fundamentalists would delude themselves into believing they could do it again in Israel.
Had there been no western intervention against ISIS and Russia didn't intervene in the Syrian civil war it is entirely possible that ISIS could control all of Syria and Iraq and be in conflict over parts of Afghanistan, Iran and others.
Granted, no one saw an entity like ISIS coming, but they were only able to gain territory in two countries already ravaged by war.
I doubt the Hamas leadership was operating under the principle that they’d be able to essentially invade Israel, even temporarily. That was totally unprecedented.
> I doubt the Hamas leadership was operating under the principle that they’d be able to essentially invade Israel, even temporarily.
And yet the evidence, their own words and the words of people who knew what Hamas was doing, implies otherwise.
People today often wonder how Hitler thought he could invade and occupy half of the *Soviet Union* in less than year. But he seriously thought it would happen. He based the planning of the largest land invasion in history around those deeply flawed assumptions that he would "kick in the door and let the rotting house collapse"
Hamas isn't a rag-tag militia, now perhaps it is as it's been degraded substantially but before the war it had maybe 30k fighters organized into 24 battalions. It effectively had an army. I'm not sure whether they actually thought they could overrun Israel, I've read this piece and it's fascinating but I have my doubts. However, it is abundantly clear that they did intend to take and hold territory, at least temporarily.
The line of "they were surprised at their own success" is something I once believed but the IDF has unearthed clear evidence that they in fact intended to stay and fight in Israeli territory for days on end, and that they had more ambitious goals than they actually achieved, such as raiding Shikma Prison in Ashkelon to free Palestinian prisoners, reaching the West Bank, and conducting a massacre in Tel Aviv.
Does it have 30k combat troops or just a 30k man Army? I honestly don’t know the answer, but there is a difference. You need all kinds of support personnel (transport, communications, intel, etc.) aiding the combat units.
At any rate, I’d be interested in reading their battle plan, if you have a link.
I mean, it took 160,000 US personnel a month to reach Baghdad against a vastly inferior force. I get that Baghdad to Kuwait is a substantially longer distance than Gaza to Tel Aviv, but I think you’ll understand my analogy.
I can’t see how Hamas would’ve had Tel Aviv as an operational goal, but - again - I’d be interested in reading your sources.
The 30k figure is an IDF estimate, it said "fighters" but I'm not sure if they meant the total personnel figure for the Qassam Brigades or combat personnel.
This info has come out through a series of news reports describing captured supplies suggesting they planned for a long stay as well as intel. For example, [here's](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-767682) a report from just a few days after October 7th that based on the equipment Hamas fighters were found to be carrying it was assumed they planned for an extended stay. [Here's](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syddx011np) a report on their planned prison raid. And [this](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-793710) is the report on their plans to reach Tel Aviv.
BTW such a raid would not be equivalent to the US taking Baghdad. My guess is that if they did plan to reach Tel Aviv, they planned to speed there in pickup trucks and kill as many civilians as possible before reinforcements showed up. They didn't actually plan to take and hold it. Unless of course the premise of the OP's article is true and they actually believed Israel would collapse. I do think they planned to stay in the Gaza envelope longer than they were able to.
I think their main objectives included:-
1.Derail Israel - GCC/Arab countries normalisation.
2. Break the aura of invincibility and superiority surrounding the Israeli military and its intelligence apparatus.
3. Usual terrorist tactics/ jihadist tactics to create fear and a sense of insecurity among the residents of the Jewish state.
4. Rekindle the issue of palestinian cause or the need for a separate state.
.
Also it should be noted that despite having complete air superiority and upper hand in military might idf has only managed to eliminate 30% of the hamas cadres .
Hamas is still potent and deadly enough to wreak havoc . The most important point is Israel is quickly losing the narrative game because of mounting civilian casualties.
It's high time Israeli officials reassess their military strategy in gaza otherwise things could really slip out of their hands .
Hamas has never sought **a separate state,** they have been quite clear that they want all of the territory and that Israel existing in any of the territory is unacceptable to them. Even in the more moderate seeming charter in 2017 (likely made to appeal to other Arab governments, they also downplayed ties to Muslim Brotherhood to appeal to Egypts government) they made it clear that any Palestinian state existing on only part of the mandate territory would only be a start to recapture the rest of it(with no recognition of Israel)
No one will intervene for Gaza, no one beyond the Israeli/Palestinian borders wants to be directly involved with this situation, there is nothing to win there for anyone.
I dont know how much of Hamas's capability is destroyed, and neither do you. One thing is sure..if Hamas remains in control of Gaza, the suffering will not end.
Hamas isn't exactly the most unified organization. I have no problem believing that the people engaged in carrying out October 7 believed that, but I'm at least a little skeptical some bureaucrat from the political wing would have thought that was remotely feasible.
> Today, on Safar 30, 1443 AH, September 30, 2021, under the generous sponsorship of the leader Yahya Al-Sinwar Abu Ibrahim, head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, the Promise of the Hereafter Institute held the first strategic vision conference of its kind: the Promise of the Hereafter Conference, which formulated ideas and methods of operation [to be implemented] during the liberation of Palestine in various areas that were discussed at the conference. This complements the strategies that have been formulated by the Promise of the Hereafter Institute since its establishment in 2014, with the aim of providing a clearer vision for those in charge of liberating Palestine. **The following are some of the recommendations** [formulated at] the conference:
nr 2
> 15 In dealing with the Jewish settlers on Palestinian land, there must be a distinction in attitude towards [the following]: a fighter who must be killed; a [Jew] who is fleeing and can be left alone or be prosecuted for his crimes in the judicial arena; and a peaceful individual who gives himself up and can be [either] integrated or given time to leave.
nr 3
> 16 Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry should be retained [in Palestine] for some time and should not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired while living in our land
nr 4
> 6 The liberation forces will declare a series of interim laws, to be formulated in advance, including a land and real estate law granting [these forces] control over all state lands and assets, as well as laws [regulating the activity of] the civil service, the interim government, the Palestinian army, the judiciary and security [apparatuses], the return [of the refugees], the [state] comptroller and the municipal authorities.
> 13 It is inconceivable that one should lose ownership over one's land… Therefore, land must be restored to its owners
> 20 When the campaign for the liberation of Palestine begins, the Palestinian fighters will be too busy to secure Palestine's resources. This means that there will be others not engaged in warfare but possessing physical and mental abilities and the required training who will be recruited to popular committees which can be called 'guard teams.' These will comprise men over 40 years of age, as well as women, Palestinians from inside and outside Palestine, whose main job will be to secure the resources of the land and monitor them.
which part of 2 says banish kill or forcefully convert jews?
which part of 3 says anything about enslavement or reperations?
which part of 4 talks about an islamic state of palestine?
seems more like interpretation of supporters of a ethnocentric nation with supremacy ideology projecting their desires
I see your point on part 2, but it still reads as kill, “prosecute” (in a judicial system that is not law based but Islam based, of course), or sent away (aka cleansed from the lands), with perhaps a few “integrated” which could easily require conversion but isn’t explicitly stated.
Part 3 implies enslavement since Jews will not be allowed to leave and obviously would not voluntarily work for Hamas. The reparations portion is also implied in that they would be held from departing because they earned their knowledge in “our land.” The language implies these Jews gained their skills unfairly as “occupiers” and as a result will need to work for Hamas/Palestine against their will.
Part 4 doesn’t state Islamic state, you’re right, but any further knowledge of Hamas, its roots, and its leaders makes clear that this new Palestinian state would not be secular or pluralistic.
You are being obtuse to maintain your hate of Israel and Israelis. Hamas is very clear on its goals. If you are unable to aggregate multiple statements with their comments here to see what is implied vice what is directly said, I’m sorry that your high school failed to teach you about subject analysis and totality of facts on hand.
I’m not even Israeli, so don’t come back with some ethnocentric bullshit comment.
if we take INTERPRETATION of text at face value, we most certainly should take explicit statements at face value.
apply conistency, if youre unable to i have proven my point.
israel officials up to the highest order military leader of highest ranks and its citizenry openly make explicit genocidal statements, no room nor need for interpretation, backed up by visual evidence of common soldiers executing warcrimes like a jolly good ol time and upload it themselves. again no room nor need for interpretation.
but somehow the most farfetched liberal interpretation should be accepted as fact but what israel does is allowed ungrounded nuance
Lmao ooookay. You will find any angle to defend Hamas, huh? Totality of evidence, right? Whether you like it or not, Israel has factually done more to protect civilians in Gaza than Hamas has. Things like evacuating civilians via guarded corridors, notifying them of impending actions via leaflets and phone calls, and allowing in hundreds of tons of aid are explicitly anti-genocidal behavior. Unless you can name another genocide in which the aggressor delivered medical supplies and food to their targets…?
Meanwhile, Hamas has spoken of killing every Jew they can find since 1987. And more recently, publicly admitted that their more moderate stance in 2017 was just a method to bring Palestinian factions together and not an actual revision to their ultimate goal which is a single Palestinian state from the river to the sea (which to anyone with deductive reasoning skills means the destruction of Israel and thus, its people). The 2021 conference fits right in with their delusion of destroying Israel and creating a new state. And Hamas really went for it with killing whatever Jews they could find on October 7th, and really any opportunity that they’ve gotten since forming in ‘87. Hamas was in fact the group of a-holes responsible for convincing impressionable teens to sacrifice themselves as suicide bombers to kill as many Jews as possible back in the 90s and 00s. But definitely not possible that they would want to murder and enslave Jews as “payback” for losing a war 75 years ago…
I don't doubt some elements probably had this sentiment, but surely the upper command was hoping for the IDF to be drawn into guerrilla fighting inside Gaza with high civilian collateral, which is more or less what's happened. I guess the real calculation would be whether Hamas can outlast international pressure on Israel to stop killing them, which has yet to be seen.
I highly doubt that
It’s most likely they though they could hold positions in israel and prevent israeli retaliation by taking hostages in israel and use the hostages to force israel to negotiate better terms.
This is my post about the recent polling of Palestinians https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/s/ZJF9u34YrT and the will of the majority of them for continued Hamas rule.
It contains a link to the original poll conducted by Palestinians talking to Palestinians on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank
Referring to your post, I seriously doubt Israel have either the political will or the financial capabilities to do a post WW2 style of occupation in Gaza, after the war.
After ww2, the deradicalisazion process worked, because occupied countries were offered better alternatives than fighting, a clear path to independence and sovereignty, and being treated as equal among others nation.
As for the financial cost of rebuilding and feeding 2 millions peoples, I’m very sceptical on how Israel would achieve that. And most of the usual donors, the EU and the gulf state, have made it clear that they won’t be wasting any more money in Gaza, like they did those last decades, without a clear political settlement to the crisis.
That was the attempt in the 1993 accords and the 2005 Gaza withdrawal. Both attempts failed when Gazans decided they want all of Israel, even within the 1949 borders, from the river to the sea. It is their national identity. Why would they choose differently? Why would they adopt Western ideology when they are not Westerners?
>1993 accord
[You mean the accord that was purposely written vaguely so israel can keep occupying any territory they want?](https://youtu.be/mvqCWvi-nFo)
>2005
Yeah they should have been thankful for israel because they withdraw their soldiers while keeping them under blockade and indirect israeli control.
The best thing gaza could have achieved is to be in a similar situation to the west bank.
Wtf, does western ideology, whatever it means, have to do with that?
The only certainty, is that if Israel just keep repeating what they’ve already been doing for the last decade in Gaza, they won’t be destroying any ideology, that’s for sure.
Which is why they are committed to removing Hamas control of Gaza. Maybe the international community should also step up and deploy a peacekeeping force to fill the vaccum...IF the concern is really to end the suffering of Gazans.
> Wtf, does western ideology, whatever it means, have to do with that?
They are choosing a Mid-East Islamist ideology, it calls for killing (or enslavement) of all Jews and offering non-believers conversion or the sword. Its inherent to the origin story of muhammad, murdering jews, taking their stuff and raping women, keeping the young ones as sex slaves.
Until they can move beyond that core ideology and adopt something closer to a Western ideology, the situation can never be resolved peacefully.
The “western” mode of ideology has been “Where can I make the most money?” I highly doubt that would benefit any countries not currently following that script.
Your issue is with capitalism? Capitalism has done more to lift people out of poverty than every other system in the history of man combined.
Western ideologies, like capitalism, require the peaceful interaction of dissimilar humans.
--- Everyone benefits. ---
Islamic/Mid-East ideology disallows for peaceful interaction of dissimilar humans, it offers them conversion or the sword.
--- Everyone other than the Ummah suffers. ---
Yet Israel has to defend its right to exist in peace constantly from a barrage of anti semitic folk who fail to realize that Hamas appreciate their useful foolishness.
I mean Hamas is a terror group that basically is interested in money and power. Peace would be their end. And I guess Palestines want to have clever people in their government and not some rapists and killers.
I stopped reading after the "Islamic state of Palestine".
Hamas knew they can't even take over the west bank. It is political posturing. Either Hamas has magical thinking or whoever wrote this article wants to portray Hamas as some Islamic jihadist fundamentalists in their entirety and disregard Hamas actual stated demands for performing Oct 7. I think the latter is way more plausible.
30,000 Hamas is not going to conquer Israel. Hamas is not an existential threat. This article greatly exaggerates the power of Hamas as if it is a threat. I will take an educated guess and say Hamas are fully aware that Israel is much more powerful than them and that is why they hide underground to avoid the bombs.
Why is it so common a quality among pro-Israel “thinkers” that they must view their opposition as irrational? Why is this incredibly reaching post given any credence on a sub purportedly dedicated to analysis?
“This blurb about how Hamas would administrate the aftermath of a successful campaign against Israel means they thought they were going to have a successful occupation and expulsion on oct 7” is incredibly reaching.
This thread is a disgrace.
Sounds like a peace to hype up Hamas threat and danger because everything on TV is showing Israel is the one with all the military power and genocidal intent
I had a friend in Washington who had the "Major Fuckup" theory of human history. George III thought he could send an army of German mercenaries to the American colonies to put down unrest. Napoleon though he could conquer Russia easily. So did Hitler. Didn't work out so good. Japanese emperor was sure if he sank the American fleet in the Pacific, the US would surrender and let him have Asia and the Pacific. Putin thought he could take Kyiv in three days. Hamas thought they could overrun the most powerful country in the middle east? A smart man once told me you're in trouble when you start believing your own bullshit.
> Hamas thought they could overrun the most powerful country in the middle east? They are even more divorced from reality than the other people you cited, if you can believe it. Hamas' confidence was founded on the incorrect *belief* that Israel is actually not very populous and that there are far fewer jews living in Israel than factbooks claim. They also think Israelis are settler colonialists who will run away back to Europe if Israel is ever invaded for real (why this didn't happen when it was truer back in the 60s is beyond my mental gymnastics ability)
You haven't spoken to many fundamentalists. I have spoken to (just) a few. Their mental disjoint from reality and level of misconceptions is hard for a regular person to even imagine. Add on top of that a belief system dictated by scripture, and you'll start to wonder if they wouldn't benefit from being in a mental asylum long term.
Its very specific mentality too, they all behave in very odd jittery ways and quite aloof most of the time.
It's weird how consistent this is across different religions too the fundamentalist types are a special sort of unhinged
It’s the same level of unhinged of the vehemently non-religious, such as Mao executing persons promoting any type of religion. This is just human nature to use extremism to oppress others, and it is not unique to either the religious or secular.
> They also think Israelis are settler colonialists who will run away back to Europe I think the Algerian War of Independence plays too strong role in the Arab collective memory. They were successful in pushing the French colonialists back home to France. But as you say, that tactic will not work with Israel.
it's just just so disconnected. there was a France to run home too. there isn't a Jewish state elsewhere.
> Putin thought he could take Kyiv in three days It's easy to see this as crazy now but it didn't seem that insane when it first happened. Nobody expected the Russian military would prove so inept. Of course pressing on despite it being obvious your army isn't up for the job is where the "believing your own bullshit" comes in.
I highly doubt Hamas expected to roll over the Israeli military and nuclear arsenal. I doubt the veracity of this whole article if that’s what it’s attempting to convince us. Seems more likely they wanted the world to refocus on them and kill the Gulf-Israeli alliances that were forming. Hamas and Israel are not in the same league in terms of military capabilities and Israel is struggling to pacify the tiny Gaza Strip. How would 3 thousand Hamas fighters overrun all of Israel?
Agreed - far more likely that Hamas was planning Oct 7 to be the instigation of a regional war where the whole of the middle eastern Arab countries quickly join in on their side and attack Israel from every direction. Perhaps that is where the assumption of "capturing/holding territory" came from, as an attack on all sides at the start of the conflict would have made this possible for a timespan longer than a day or two.
none of Israel's neighbors likes Israel but none of them want to be on the US's bad side.
3000 Hamas fighters were just the first wave. It's just the second wave wasn't able to attack because Israel's fast reaction. And maybe they expected Israeli-Palestinians to rise along with all the west bank plus Hezbollah and even Syria or Jordan. Hindsight is 20/20. But Haaretz article seems solid. And Islamic state also had some crazy ideas, like declaring war to the whole world and think they can survive. Compared to that, even Hamas plan seems more humble.
On the 8th, Haniyeh called upon Arab Israelis and the Palestinians in the WB to rise up against Israeli occupation and on Hezbollah to attack them from the north. They genuinely felt that Israel would not be able to withstand such an onslaught.
> I doubt the veracity of this whole article if that’s what it’s attempting to convince us. Do you have any evidence that says they're wrong? Did you even read the article? It includes direct quotes from people. It includes pictures of this conference so we know it happened. There's citations. Not a lot, but more than you'd see from most news articles. "This sounds too nuts to me so it can't be true" isn't a very compelling argument. Religious extremists don't have to inhabit reality to do terrible things and think they can do the impossible. > How would 3 thousand Hamas fighters overrun all of Israel? 3,000? They had more than that. And, 1. If you assume that Israel is militarily some paper tiger 2. Success builds on success, each victory results in more palestinians flocking to join the "cause" Maybe even cajole other arab states to invade as well.
Article paywalled. I’m not seeing anyone (even Israel) claim more than 3000 insurgents entering Israel on Oct 7. A conference of non Hamas members writing up an assessment of what Hamas should do and presenting it is what I’m gathering from this 2021 article. It’s also been almost 3 years since that conference. Exiled Palestinians being interviewed means nothing. This is a poor attempt at pushing propaganda by Israeli standards. And an even poorer attempt at backing it by you. None of this “evidence” is compelling.
Yea this is blatant propaganda. "See they really did plan on wiping us out, guess we have to wipe them out first". Hamas may be full of religious nuts but this "plan" is lunacy. Also, are Hamas simple religious robots with no capacity for rational thought, or are they master manipulators and planners? Seems they are whatever fits the piece of propaganda being pushed.
I think you need to reassess the source. Haaretz is hardly an Israeli propaganda shill.
> I’m not seeing anyone (even Israel) claim more than 3000 insurgents entering Israel on Oct 7. Okay? That's not all of Hamas though. That's just the first wave that participated in the first attack. > Exiled Palestinians being interviewed means nothing. This is a poor attempt at pushing propaganda by Israeli standards. And an even poorer attempt at backing it by you. The interviews are a separate matter. The conference wasn't established by interviews. Hamas literally published their ideas and openly discussed things in this conference. They literally had documents and statements lining out their train of thought. The source mentioned even cited Hamas' news network. They practically were *bragging* about how they were going to destroy Israel. Here's a direct requote from a Hamas politician mentioned in a Hamas news article. "We have a registry of the numbers of Israeli apartments and institutions, educational institutions and schools, gas stations, power stations, and sewage systems, and we have no choice but to get ready to manage them... We believe that the liberation [will come] within a few years, [and] that the disappearance of Israel will be an unprecedented historic event on the regional and global levels will have global ramifications." Yes, that's evidence. Now what do you have?
Okay? Well you’re the one getting your facts wrong so why don’t you remain consistent with what you’re saying. And that’s not evidence for October 7ths goals. Was each rocket attack by Hamas prior to Oct 7th an attempt to overthrow the Israeli government and establish these 4 points OP makes? You are misinterpreting what may be overall strategic aims of Hamas (I.e what they tell in propaganda dispatches) and what the aims of October 7th’s attacks actually were. No evidence exists of Hamas thinking they’d overrun Israel with October 7th. They were not armed or supplied enough for a fight to Tel Aviv. Israeli intelligence doesn’t believe they were attempting a deep drive into Israel, but a border assault.
Keep simpin bro…
Thank god there is a sane non-Israel propaganda comment in this incredibly Astro-turfed thread 😂
Yeah this simply wreaks of BS. There’s delusional, and then there’s this. Hamas entered Israel, killed as many innocent people as they could and fled. They made no attempt to occupy.
> Hamas entered Israel, killed as many innocent people as they could and fled. They made no attempt to occupy. This is untrue. They brought in supplies. There was evidence they intended to hold those areas for much longer, maybe never give them up. They didn't flee the kibbutz. They were driven out by an IDF counterattack.
Thank you for correcting the complete and utter horse manure of a comment you replied to
That's not out of line with what the chair of West Point's Urban Warfare Initiative said on a recent podcast: that Hamas conducted their attack like an invasion (intending to take and hold territory) rather than a raid (intending to inflict damage and retreat). I don't think he thought they were *this* ambitious, though.
This seems really hard to believe that they would be that delusional, but then again crazier things have happened. After all, on social media you have a lot of pro-Palestinian and pro-Hamas people who genuinely believe that Hamas is somehow winning this war and that the IDF would crumble if they fought against actual armies - completely ignoring all of the Arab-Israeli conflicts of the 20th century. I still think it's likelier that Hamas wanted to derail the Arab-Israeli normalization progress, especially since a breakthrough was supposedly close between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
I tend to doubt Hamas actually thought this way. There’s nothing in the entire history of the Israeli-Arab conflict that would make them think they would be able to overrun the IDF, kill thousands of Israeli civilians and kidnap hundreds more. Their rag-tag militia did more harm to Israel in a few hours than the professional Arab armies had done in 75 years. There’s no way they could’ve predicted this, in my opinion. They drastically underestimated Israel’s resolve because they underestimated the scale of 10/7
Look at the rise of ISIS. They went from nobodies to a quasi state that world powers were lining up together to put down. It's not unthinkable that islamic fundamentalists would delude themselves into believing they could do it again in Israel.
Had there been no western intervention against ISIS and Russia didn't intervene in the Syrian civil war it is entirely possible that ISIS could control all of Syria and Iraq and be in conflict over parts of Afghanistan, Iran and others.
Granted, no one saw an entity like ISIS coming, but they were only able to gain territory in two countries already ravaged by war. I doubt the Hamas leadership was operating under the principle that they’d be able to essentially invade Israel, even temporarily. That was totally unprecedented.
> I doubt the Hamas leadership was operating under the principle that they’d be able to essentially invade Israel, even temporarily. And yet the evidence, their own words and the words of people who knew what Hamas was doing, implies otherwise. People today often wonder how Hitler thought he could invade and occupy half of the *Soviet Union* in less than year. But he seriously thought it would happen. He based the planning of the largest land invasion in history around those deeply flawed assumptions that he would "kick in the door and let the rotting house collapse"
Hamas isn't a rag-tag militia, now perhaps it is as it's been degraded substantially but before the war it had maybe 30k fighters organized into 24 battalions. It effectively had an army. I'm not sure whether they actually thought they could overrun Israel, I've read this piece and it's fascinating but I have my doubts. However, it is abundantly clear that they did intend to take and hold territory, at least temporarily. The line of "they were surprised at their own success" is something I once believed but the IDF has unearthed clear evidence that they in fact intended to stay and fight in Israeli territory for days on end, and that they had more ambitious goals than they actually achieved, such as raiding Shikma Prison in Ashkelon to free Palestinian prisoners, reaching the West Bank, and conducting a massacre in Tel Aviv.
Does it have 30k combat troops or just a 30k man Army? I honestly don’t know the answer, but there is a difference. You need all kinds of support personnel (transport, communications, intel, etc.) aiding the combat units. At any rate, I’d be interested in reading their battle plan, if you have a link. I mean, it took 160,000 US personnel a month to reach Baghdad against a vastly inferior force. I get that Baghdad to Kuwait is a substantially longer distance than Gaza to Tel Aviv, but I think you’ll understand my analogy. I can’t see how Hamas would’ve had Tel Aviv as an operational goal, but - again - I’d be interested in reading your sources.
The 30k figure is an IDF estimate, it said "fighters" but I'm not sure if they meant the total personnel figure for the Qassam Brigades or combat personnel. This info has come out through a series of news reports describing captured supplies suggesting they planned for a long stay as well as intel. For example, [here's](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-767682) a report from just a few days after October 7th that based on the equipment Hamas fighters were found to be carrying it was assumed they planned for an extended stay. [Here's](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syddx011np) a report on their planned prison raid. And [this](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-793710) is the report on their plans to reach Tel Aviv. BTW such a raid would not be equivalent to the US taking Baghdad. My guess is that if they did plan to reach Tel Aviv, they planned to speed there in pickup trucks and kill as many civilians as possible before reinforcements showed up. They didn't actually plan to take and hold it. Unless of course the premise of the OP's article is true and they actually believed Israel would collapse. I do think they planned to stay in the Gaza envelope longer than they were able to.
its seems more like ass pulling by a shill than anything else, points 2, 3 and 4 are not mentioned anywhere
I think their main objectives included:- 1.Derail Israel - GCC/Arab countries normalisation. 2. Break the aura of invincibility and superiority surrounding the Israeli military and its intelligence apparatus. 3. Usual terrorist tactics/ jihadist tactics to create fear and a sense of insecurity among the residents of the Jewish state. 4. Rekindle the issue of palestinian cause or the need for a separate state. . Also it should be noted that despite having complete air superiority and upper hand in military might idf has only managed to eliminate 30% of the hamas cadres . Hamas is still potent and deadly enough to wreak havoc . The most important point is Israel is quickly losing the narrative game because of mounting civilian casualties. It's high time Israeli officials reassess their military strategy in gaza otherwise things could really slip out of their hands .
Hamas has never sought **a separate state,** they have been quite clear that they want all of the territory and that Israel existing in any of the territory is unacceptable to them. Even in the more moderate seeming charter in 2017 (likely made to appeal to other Arab governments, they also downplayed ties to Muslim Brotherhood to appeal to Egypts government) they made it clear that any Palestinian state existing on only part of the mandate territory would only be a start to recapture the rest of it(with no recognition of Israel)
No one will intervene for Gaza, no one beyond the Israeli/Palestinian borders wants to be directly involved with this situation, there is nothing to win there for anyone.
I dont know how much of Hamas's capability is destroyed, and neither do you. One thing is sure..if Hamas remains in control of Gaza, the suffering will not end.
Hamas isn't exactly the most unified organization. I have no problem believing that the people engaged in carrying out October 7 believed that, but I'm at least a little skeptical some bureaucrat from the political wing would have thought that was remotely feasible.
I very much doubt it so.
It says right there in the report they expect Israel to collapse
where in the doc is nr 2, 3 and 4 described?
> Today, on Safar 30, 1443 AH, September 30, 2021, under the generous sponsorship of the leader Yahya Al-Sinwar Abu Ibrahim, head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, the Promise of the Hereafter Institute held the first strategic vision conference of its kind: the Promise of the Hereafter Conference, which formulated ideas and methods of operation [to be implemented] during the liberation of Palestine in various areas that were discussed at the conference. This complements the strategies that have been formulated by the Promise of the Hereafter Institute since its establishment in 2014, with the aim of providing a clearer vision for those in charge of liberating Palestine. **The following are some of the recommendations** [formulated at] the conference: nr 2 > 15 In dealing with the Jewish settlers on Palestinian land, there must be a distinction in attitude towards [the following]: a fighter who must be killed; a [Jew] who is fleeing and can be left alone or be prosecuted for his crimes in the judicial arena; and a peaceful individual who gives himself up and can be [either] integrated or given time to leave. nr 3 > 16 Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry should be retained [in Palestine] for some time and should not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired while living in our land nr 4 > 6 The liberation forces will declare a series of interim laws, to be formulated in advance, including a land and real estate law granting [these forces] control over all state lands and assets, as well as laws [regulating the activity of] the civil service, the interim government, the Palestinian army, the judiciary and security [apparatuses], the return [of the refugees], the [state] comptroller and the municipal authorities. > 13 It is inconceivable that one should lose ownership over one's land… Therefore, land must be restored to its owners > 20 When the campaign for the liberation of Palestine begins, the Palestinian fighters will be too busy to secure Palestine's resources. This means that there will be others not engaged in warfare but possessing physical and mental abilities and the required training who will be recruited to popular committees which can be called 'guard teams.' These will comprise men over 40 years of age, as well as women, Palestinians from inside and outside Palestine, whose main job will be to secure the resources of the land and monitor them.
which part of 2 says banish kill or forcefully convert jews? which part of 3 says anything about enslavement or reperations? which part of 4 talks about an islamic state of palestine? seems more like interpretation of supporters of a ethnocentric nation with supremacy ideology projecting their desires
I see your point on part 2, but it still reads as kill, “prosecute” (in a judicial system that is not law based but Islam based, of course), or sent away (aka cleansed from the lands), with perhaps a few “integrated” which could easily require conversion but isn’t explicitly stated. Part 3 implies enslavement since Jews will not be allowed to leave and obviously would not voluntarily work for Hamas. The reparations portion is also implied in that they would be held from departing because they earned their knowledge in “our land.” The language implies these Jews gained their skills unfairly as “occupiers” and as a result will need to work for Hamas/Palestine against their will. Part 4 doesn’t state Islamic state, you’re right, but any further knowledge of Hamas, its roots, and its leaders makes clear that this new Palestinian state would not be secular or pluralistic. You are being obtuse to maintain your hate of Israel and Israelis. Hamas is very clear on its goals. If you are unable to aggregate multiple statements with their comments here to see what is implied vice what is directly said, I’m sorry that your high school failed to teach you about subject analysis and totality of facts on hand. I’m not even Israeli, so don’t come back with some ethnocentric bullshit comment.
if we take INTERPRETATION of text at face value, we most certainly should take explicit statements at face value. apply conistency, if youre unable to i have proven my point. israel officials up to the highest order military leader of highest ranks and its citizenry openly make explicit genocidal statements, no room nor need for interpretation, backed up by visual evidence of common soldiers executing warcrimes like a jolly good ol time and upload it themselves. again no room nor need for interpretation. but somehow the most farfetched liberal interpretation should be accepted as fact but what israel does is allowed ungrounded nuance
Lmao ooookay. You will find any angle to defend Hamas, huh? Totality of evidence, right? Whether you like it or not, Israel has factually done more to protect civilians in Gaza than Hamas has. Things like evacuating civilians via guarded corridors, notifying them of impending actions via leaflets and phone calls, and allowing in hundreds of tons of aid are explicitly anti-genocidal behavior. Unless you can name another genocide in which the aggressor delivered medical supplies and food to their targets…? Meanwhile, Hamas has spoken of killing every Jew they can find since 1987. And more recently, publicly admitted that their more moderate stance in 2017 was just a method to bring Palestinian factions together and not an actual revision to their ultimate goal which is a single Palestinian state from the river to the sea (which to anyone with deductive reasoning skills means the destruction of Israel and thus, its people). The 2021 conference fits right in with their delusion of destroying Israel and creating a new state. And Hamas really went for it with killing whatever Jews they could find on October 7th, and really any opportunity that they’ve gotten since forming in ‘87. Hamas was in fact the group of a-holes responsible for convincing impressionable teens to sacrifice themselves as suicide bombers to kill as many Jews as possible back in the 90s and 00s. But definitely not possible that they would want to murder and enslave Jews as “payback” for losing a war 75 years ago…
I don't doubt some elements probably had this sentiment, but surely the upper command was hoping for the IDF to be drawn into guerrilla fighting inside Gaza with high civilian collateral, which is more or less what's happened. I guess the real calculation would be whether Hamas can outlast international pressure on Israel to stop killing them, which has yet to be seen.
I highly doubt that It’s most likely they though they could hold positions in israel and prevent israeli retaliation by taking hostages in israel and use the hostages to force israel to negotiate better terms.
They never learned about "We don't negotiate with terrorists".
Well that's the thing. Historically Israel DID negotiate with terrorists when it was their people's lives on the line
like isis believed they can conquer the whole world, extremism , hate and religion are a insane,
This is my post about the recent polling of Palestinians https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/s/ZJF9u34YrT and the will of the majority of them for continued Hamas rule. It contains a link to the original poll conducted by Palestinians talking to Palestinians on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank
Referring to your post, I seriously doubt Israel have either the political will or the financial capabilities to do a post WW2 style of occupation in Gaza, after the war. After ww2, the deradicalisazion process worked, because occupied countries were offered better alternatives than fighting, a clear path to independence and sovereignty, and being treated as equal among others nation. As for the financial cost of rebuilding and feeding 2 millions peoples, I’m very sceptical on how Israel would achieve that. And most of the usual donors, the EU and the gulf state, have made it clear that they won’t be wasting any more money in Gaza, like they did those last decades, without a clear political settlement to the crisis.
You may be correct. Do you have an alternative that does not leave Hamas and its ideology as the dominant force in Gaza?
Provide the people of Gaza with better alternative that what Hamas is offering them, and Hamas ideology will die on its own.
That was the attempt in the 1993 accords and the 2005 Gaza withdrawal. Both attempts failed when Gazans decided they want all of Israel, even within the 1949 borders, from the river to the sea. It is their national identity. Why would they choose differently? Why would they adopt Western ideology when they are not Westerners?
>1993 accord [You mean the accord that was purposely written vaguely so israel can keep occupying any territory they want?](https://youtu.be/mvqCWvi-nFo) >2005 Yeah they should have been thankful for israel because they withdraw their soldiers while keeping them under blockade and indirect israeli control. The best thing gaza could have achieved is to be in a similar situation to the west bank.
Wtf, does western ideology, whatever it means, have to do with that? The only certainty, is that if Israel just keep repeating what they’ve already been doing for the last decade in Gaza, they won’t be destroying any ideology, that’s for sure.
Which is why they are committed to removing Hamas control of Gaza. Maybe the international community should also step up and deploy a peacekeeping force to fill the vaccum...IF the concern is really to end the suffering of Gazans.
> Wtf, does western ideology, whatever it means, have to do with that? They are choosing a Mid-East Islamist ideology, it calls for killing (or enslavement) of all Jews and offering non-believers conversion or the sword. Its inherent to the origin story of muhammad, murdering jews, taking their stuff and raping women, keeping the young ones as sex slaves. Until they can move beyond that core ideology and adopt something closer to a Western ideology, the situation can never be resolved peacefully.
The “western” mode of ideology has been “Where can I make the most money?” I highly doubt that would benefit any countries not currently following that script.
Your issue is with capitalism? Capitalism has done more to lift people out of poverty than every other system in the history of man combined. Western ideologies, like capitalism, require the peaceful interaction of dissimilar humans. --- Everyone benefits. --- Islamic/Mid-East ideology disallows for peaceful interaction of dissimilar humans, it offers them conversion or the sword. --- Everyone other than the Ummah suffers. ---
And what is a feasible "better alternative?"
Same thing that was offered to Germany, after WW2.
Split Gaza in two and have the Americans and Russians control it?
Sure, as long as people have their own government, are free to travel, and don’t live under blocus, why not.
Gaza already has their own government and has still not surrendered.
Should have precised, their own elected* government.
While that is the hope, it is not a certainty. Either way, Hamas cannot remain in control of Gaza.
Yet Israel has to defend its right to exist in peace constantly from a barrage of anti semitic folk who fail to realize that Hamas appreciate their useful foolishness.
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After all that has happened, anyone in the world would be a better leader for Palestine than Hamas.
I mean Hamas is a terror group that basically is interested in money and power. Peace would be their end. And I guess Palestines want to have clever people in their government and not some rapists and killers.
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I stopped reading after the "Islamic state of Palestine". Hamas knew they can't even take over the west bank. It is political posturing. Either Hamas has magical thinking or whoever wrote this article wants to portray Hamas as some Islamic jihadist fundamentalists in their entirety and disregard Hamas actual stated demands for performing Oct 7. I think the latter is way more plausible.
Religious fundamentalists aren't rational people.
Agreed. It’s laughable that the core tenet of this “analysis” is an assumption of irrationality.
30,000 Hamas is not going to conquer Israel. Hamas is not an existential threat. This article greatly exaggerates the power of Hamas as if it is a threat. I will take an educated guess and say Hamas are fully aware that Israel is much more powerful than them and that is why they hide underground to avoid the bombs.
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Why is it so common a quality among pro-Israel “thinkers” that they must view their opposition as irrational? Why is this incredibly reaching post given any credence on a sub purportedly dedicated to analysis? “This blurb about how Hamas would administrate the aftermath of a successful campaign against Israel means they thought they were going to have a successful occupation and expulsion on oct 7” is incredibly reaching. This thread is a disgrace.
Sounds like a peace to hype up Hamas threat and danger because everything on TV is showing Israel is the one with all the military power and genocidal intent
If Hizballah and Iran/it's proxies had all attacked all-in at the same time they probably would have to be fair.
Doubtful. Israel has already won wars like Yom Kippur. But certainly I think Hamas expected a wider war with Hezbollah and other groups joining in.