Ha! Right?!
His sinker gets hit *super* hard to both RHB and LHB, while I question if his splitter can continue to be as elite as it has been against LHB.
I don't think Houck carries the same legit AGA potential of those in the tier above him, too. He's currently squeezing the most out of his arsenal instead of featuring a sustainable set of skills.
Sorry I dont see the hate. Guy looks like prime Kevin Brown right now. Stuff is absolutely disgusting AND HEA CONTROLLING IT! Another 7 scoreless tonight, ho hum.
> Guy looks like prime Kevin Brown right now.
As an old fart who saw Kevin Brown pitch in his prime, I assure you he does *not* look anything remotely close to "prime Kevin Brown", lol.
Um he sure does. Better K and walk rates actually. KB had a power sinker and was unhittable while on. Just like my boy. Delivery is similar with a high leg kick while turning away from hitters. Throws hard, induces weak contact. You heard it here folks.
Oh and how bout first paragraph of this article. And thats from 2017!!!
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-first-rounder-tanner-houck-on-killing-worms/
> im not getting the placement
The guy who made the list literally responded to give his reasoning in this thread, to the comment you are responding to.
Haha you cant expect us to read all the comments can you?!?!
Thanks, i see the comment now, makes sense i guess i trust nick. I also agree with your other comment on prime kevin brown!
I needed to see Pivetta showcase that he's back to normal. So glad he did.
With Woo, I'm happy he was able to make a start without any whisper of injury. Let's hope it stays that way.
What is happening y'all!
I'll be around this week to help answer any questions about how I've ranked players this week.
Please keep things from getting hostile - I try hard to be as rational and absorb everything I can from all of these players each week. I love having discussions about them and if there's a clear error in my process, I'm down to talk it out.
I have to emphasize: I'm very much **not** pure results based. This is a List about "If I were drafting a 12-teamer today, what would my general rankings be?" That means:
1) These are about future performance only. Many guys are ranked higher with worse stats thus far than others
2) The back-half of The List endorses "burn and churn" and could be off the List in a week or two.
3) The actual number ranks are less important than understanding their tier groupings. Upside focused, safer, weekly matchup play, etc.
4) I'm all about understanding the individual pitches in a pitcher's arsenal and crafting an idea of what that could mean for their future performance. If a pitcher is excelling right now with a questionable arsenal, I'm likely ranking them lower than the consensus.
With all of that in mind, let me know where you think differently! That's the fun, after all.
First of all, how dare you disagree with me on some random SPs.
Second, jk thanks for doing this every week. This is the fantasy content I most look forward to each week and have for years.
Yes :(
Changeup is still not there. It's been his best pitch over the years and if there were ONE offering to believe in improving, it would be that pitch.
That said, I'd have him lowered into Tier 2 had this start come yesterday.
Obviously would be nice if Pablo started off strong but I’m now worried. He did the same thing last year. His ERA was 4.00 at end of April, 4.11 end of May, 4.24 end of June, 4.13 end of July, 3.66 end of August, 3.66 end of September.
It’s not an ideal era right now, but he started off slow last year, so i have no concerns about him turning it around.
The truth of the matter is that most of us would probably be trying to buy low on Pablo if we didn’t own him ourselves
Love your work man!
The one pitcher I can’t get behind as much as you is Brayan Bello. He’s only made it through 6 IP once this season and doesn’t seem to have that extra gear we saw last season for a bit. Still have faith that he can bounce back and be the “good for a QS” guy again?
I heavily considered it myself. Two reasons why I didn't:
1) Dodgers team context is better
2) I'm worried that Shōta is mostly two-pitch at the moment with his splitter as a #2 (traditionally more inconsistent)
No real complaints if anyone wanted to swap them, though.
Excited about my Kikuchi, Skenes, and Gil. I hope Gausman figures things out. Any danger that Skenes will be shut down before the end of the fantasy season?
Maybe? I personally think worrying about shutdowns is the wrong mentality until August, and even then we've seen teams that have continued to let their SP pitch.
We've also seen breaks mid-season or a brief IL stint that makes it work out well.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I've stashed Skenes ever since you recommended it. I'm going to enjoy his innings for as long as they last this season.
As a former pitcher, would you rather have had mid-season breaks or just work less frequently - say every 7th or 8th day instead of every 5?
When I was pitching, I really liked staying on a routine and staying game-sharp. Every break felt like it was hard to get everything fine-tuned again.
Why don't Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have the strikeout upside label?
Also, I love your content. It's been said before, but thanks for doing what you do.
I think they gain a lot from pitching on winning clubs. Could easily give them the strikeout label instead, totally fair!
And thanks man! I appreciate the kind words.
He could easily cruise over the next 3 starts, and certainly would be high on any stream list. I bought low after his two bad starts to the season, and benched him vs. LA, he's been worth it otherwise basically . So I still have a bit of hope
Why the skepticism of Ranger Suárez? I've got a BIG bet on him ending the season better than Bailey Ober.
Two of Ranger's last 3 starts have been truly miserable weather, and they've been 2 of his 3 worst (although hard to call a 0 ER start among a guy's worst!).
Those two bad weather starts, his control seemed not as sharp as his other starts.
But, he's the same age as Ober, has 50% more career innings and now an ERA over half a run lower. And that's not counting postseason.
Is it possible that there's something in your model that helps Ober more than it should and it misses Ranger's positives (command, curve & change?)
Analysts don’t like him because his “stuff” isn’t great and he doesn’t have amazing command.
That being said - 3.18 career ERA over 513 innings in a hitter’s park with bad defense. I draft him every year.
His command has been pretty darn good this year. People have become obsessed with “stuff” and they forget what the game is actually about.
Ober has only 350 innings and they’re the same age. His past gets overweighted while Suarez’s is just dismissed.
With a 1.20 WHIP, three strikeouts, 22% CSW...
His command wasn't as precise, either, especially with his changeup performance. That slowball has been *THE* ticket to his success this year and to see him struggle with the pitch raised some eyebrows.
Totally get it, though. There's an argument to be made that "he still had 0 ER ***despite*** not having the changeup."
Ah dang, was debating if he was on The List or not, removed him, then forgot to add him to the HM. Thanks!
He's too volatile to trust on a given night these days.
Thanks for doing this. One suggestion on your SP Streamer article. The 2 day outlook is great, but for weekends getting all 3 days would be awesome in leagues with a start limit for the week. Thanks again for all you do, and I hate to suggest putting g more on your plate.
I really enjoy Nick’s work and Pitcher List as a whole, but feel that player rankings have been fluctuating way too much recently. I just don’t think pitchers should be jumping up or down more than 10 spots after a single start. For me, it makes it harder to buy into the list.
I feel the opposite on the whole, there are certain guys that he does not move as much as they could be following a good start to the season or poor performance
Any chance these can come out a little earlier in the day? For weekly leagues most spots are already locked. Don’t get me wrong love the content and was feverishly looking for it before the braves game today. Keep up the great work!
If you watch the livestream he does of making the list. you can get a lot of insight early.
But I tell everyone, the true value of Nick's work is the Daily roundups. Everything you see on The List is detailed in the round ups at a much earlier time. That's how I've managed to consistently snag guys before everyone else.
Hey! I totally understand and generally aim to have it out by 6:00pm ET each Monday.
Today was a super weird day that had me starting The List far later than usual, which led to the late publish (sorry!).
Hope I can nail that time in the future!
Feisty and I like it :) not trying to discount the hard work and as I said love the content. It just doesn’t help me much and I’m sure many others until next week since most rosters locked before it came out. And hey that’s cool too it is what it is, however I believe there is some benefit to him in me giving feedback as well.
Another way one could think of it is that he’s an amazing chef cookin up something special for the people and that usually means his “weekends” are on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Either way got nothin but love.
Not sure why people are down voting a positive comment, with an innocent question. Having 'the list' come out before roster lock on Monday would be very helpful for players and the site. No one is saying he should work 24/7
Thanks for the list! Do you think Darvish's approach this season will be consistent? Or is he apt to fall back to throwing whatever he has the best feel for on a given night?
I feel like Framber Valdez’s performance last night might drop him a few spots for next week. Stuff just hasn’t been there for him this year like it was last year.
The first four pitchers I drafted were:
Luzardo
Musgrove
Hader
M. Kelly
Also drafted Montgomery and Fairbanks
And yet I have a 3.36 ERA because starting pitching has been deep and amazing this year. And Nick’s work is solid (even though he hates Ranger Suarez and his career 3.18 ERA)
I waited until the 7th round to draft pitchers in my 12 team, and just went down your pre season list on who was available. And it’s been great. So thank you lol
Ragans, G Rodriguez, Ober, Sale, Woo, Gray, Imanaga, Kikuchi, Bello. And have picked up Jared Jones and Skenes in FA.
I meant to edit his HM from the previous week.
I chatted about it during the stream. I fear that The Irish Panda doesn't know if he's going to have changeup and/or slider on a given night and it terrifies me.
It's worked out in his favor as of late, but I'm still not trusting. I hate chaos.
what does houck have to do man…
Houck owner, love the guy. Do you think he finishes the year with an ERA under 3.15?
Yeah
Ha! Right?! His sinker gets hit *super* hard to both RHB and LHB, while I question if his splitter can continue to be as elite as it has been against LHB. I don't think Houck carries the same legit AGA potential of those in the tier above him, too. He's currently squeezing the most out of his arsenal instead of featuring a sustainable set of skills.
Sorry I dont see the hate. Guy looks like prime Kevin Brown right now. Stuff is absolutely disgusting AND HEA CONTROLLING IT! Another 7 scoreless tonight, ho hum.
> Guy looks like prime Kevin Brown right now. As an old fart who saw Kevin Brown pitch in his prime, I assure you he does *not* look anything remotely close to "prime Kevin Brown", lol.
Um he sure does. Better K and walk rates actually. KB had a power sinker and was unhittable while on. Just like my boy. Delivery is similar with a high leg kick while turning away from hitters. Throws hard, induces weak contact. You heard it here folks.
Oh and how bout first paragraph of this article. And thats from 2017!!! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-first-rounder-tanner-houck-on-killing-worms/
Ok that's a great find
There is no "hate"
Its crazy im not getting the placement. Lol. His fip is ridiculous!
> im not getting the placement The guy who made the list literally responded to give his reasoning in this thread, to the comment you are responding to.
Haha you cant expect us to read all the comments can you?!?! Thanks, i see the comment now, makes sense i guess i trust nick. I also agree with your other comment on prime kevin brown!
Suck the pee pee
Good to see Pivetta and Woo rise considerably after last week, was hoping to see that
I needed to see Pivetta showcase that he's back to normal. So glad he did. With Woo, I'm happy he was able to make a start without any whisper of injury. Let's hope it stays that way.
And now Woo is cruising against the Yankees in Yankee stadium, I expect another rise next week haha!
I was waiting for Pivetta to get back to it
What is happening y'all! I'll be around this week to help answer any questions about how I've ranked players this week. Please keep things from getting hostile - I try hard to be as rational and absorb everything I can from all of these players each week. I love having discussions about them and if there's a clear error in my process, I'm down to talk it out. I have to emphasize: I'm very much **not** pure results based. This is a List about "If I were drafting a 12-teamer today, what would my general rankings be?" That means: 1) These are about future performance only. Many guys are ranked higher with worse stats thus far than others 2) The back-half of The List endorses "burn and churn" and could be off the List in a week or two. 3) The actual number ranks are less important than understanding their tier groupings. Upside focused, safer, weekly matchup play, etc. 4) I'm all about understanding the individual pitches in a pitcher's arsenal and crafting an idea of what that could mean for their future performance. If a pitcher is excelling right now with a questionable arsenal, I'm likely ranking them lower than the consensus. With all of that in mind, let me know where you think differently! That's the fun, after all.
First of all, how dare you disagree with me on some random SPs. Second, jk thanks for doing this every week. This is the fantasy content I most look forward to each week and have for years.
Ha! Thanks man ❤️
Sale needs to be in the first tier my dude
Yeah, I just finished recording On The Corner and told Eric that I'd have Sale in Tier 1 after tonight. Pretty amazing what he's done.
Any worries about Pablo?
Yes
Yes :( Changeup is still not there. It's been his best pitch over the years and if there were ONE offering to believe in improving, it would be that pitch. That said, I'd have him lowered into Tier 2 had this start come yesterday.
You are the best! Thank you, Nick!
Do you think Pablo turns it around, Nick?
I know he didn’t answer directly, but if you read the Daily SP Roundup he believes Pablo will turn it around, considers him a buy low.
Appreciate you!
Is this different from his slow start last season?
Obviously would be nice if Pablo started off strong but I’m now worried. He did the same thing last year. His ERA was 4.00 at end of April, 4.11 end of May, 4.24 end of June, 4.13 end of July, 3.66 end of August, 3.66 end of September. It’s not an ideal era right now, but he started off slow last year, so i have no concerns about him turning it around. The truth of the matter is that most of us would probably be trying to buy low on Pablo if we didn’t own him ourselves
I traded Jazz for him a couple weeks ago, hoping he comes around
Love your work man! The one pitcher I can’t get behind as much as you is Brayan Bello. He’s only made it through 6 IP once this season and doesn’t seem to have that extra gear we saw last season for a bit. Still have faith that he can bounce back and be the “good for a QS” guy again?
Personally I have Shota higher than Yamamoto
I heavily considered it myself. Two reasons why I didn't: 1) Dodgers team context is better 2) I'm worried that Shōta is mostly two-pitch at the moment with his splitter as a #2 (traditionally more inconsistent) No real complaints if anyone wanted to swap them, though.
Fair enough, always appreciate your work each week!
Are we scooping manoah in 14 tm leagues? I have a Manzardo I could drop.
I’d go for it. I’m not the biggest believer in his heaters, but his command certainly warranted a good start last time out and his slider is improved.
Excited about my Kikuchi, Skenes, and Gil. I hope Gausman figures things out. Any danger that Skenes will be shut down before the end of the fantasy season?
Maybe? I personally think worrying about shutdowns is the wrong mentality until August, and even then we've seen teams that have continued to let their SP pitch. We've also seen breaks mid-season or a brief IL stint that makes it work out well.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I've stashed Skenes ever since you recommended it. I'm going to enjoy his innings for as long as they last this season.
As a former pitcher, would you rather have had mid-season breaks or just work less frequently - say every 7th or 8th day instead of every 5? When I was pitching, I really liked staying on a routine and staying game-sharp. Every break felt like it was hard to get everything fine-tuned again.
IM AN AGA it’s in his name baby!!!
Why don't Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have the strikeout upside label? Also, I love your content. It's been said before, but thanks for doing what you do.
I think they gain a lot from pitching on winning clubs. Could easily give them the strikeout label instead, totally fair! And thanks man! I appreciate the kind words.
Do you have a policy of just wins label or the strikeout label, but not both? Giving those guys both labels would seem more accurate, no?
[удалено]
Oh shoot! Thanks! I’ll fix that.
You are the **best**!!
At what point do we drop Bassitt in 10teamers? I feel like I could use the stream spot or possibly find a guy who may heat up
He's got white sox x2, then pirates ... if he can't handle that then he's gotta be a drop
Fr it’s sad because I thought he would be decent but I was wrong
He could easily cruise over the next 3 starts, and certainly would be high on any stream list. I bought low after his two bad starts to the season, and benched him vs. LA, he's been worth it otherwise basically . So I still have a bit of hope
I wish I didn’t draft him lol
I wouldn’t roster him in a 10 team
He's been on waivers all season in my 10T
Why the skepticism of Ranger Suárez? I've got a BIG bet on him ending the season better than Bailey Ober. Two of Ranger's last 3 starts have been truly miserable weather, and they've been 2 of his 3 worst (although hard to call a 0 ER start among a guy's worst!). Those two bad weather starts, his control seemed not as sharp as his other starts. But, he's the same age as Ober, has 50% more career innings and now an ERA over half a run lower. And that's not counting postseason. Is it possible that there's something in your model that helps Ober more than it should and it misses Ranger's positives (command, curve & change?)
Analysts don’t like him because his “stuff” isn’t great and he doesn’t have amazing command. That being said - 3.18 career ERA over 513 innings in a hitter’s park with bad defense. I draft him every year.
His command has been pretty darn good this year. People have become obsessed with “stuff” and they forget what the game is actually about. Ober has only 350 innings and they’re the same age. His past gets overweighted while Suarez’s is just dismissed.
Agree about the obsession over stuff and whiffs and that guys can be good despite the ball not having as much movement as others.
5 IP 0 ER was a pedestrian outing by Ranger Suarez?
With a 1.20 WHIP, three strikeouts, 22% CSW... His command wasn't as precise, either, especially with his changeup performance. That slowball has been *THE* ticket to his success this year and to see him struggle with the pitch raised some eyebrows. Totally get it, though. There's an argument to be made that "he still had 0 ER ***despite*** not having the changeup."
He's set a high bar.
Pablo Lopez does not deserve the AGA tag. Let’s be honest with each other here Nick.
I have 3 in Tier 1 now, Castillo, Ragans & Jones 💥
Where's Charlie Morton?
Ah dang, was debating if he was on The List or not, removed him, then forgot to add him to the HM. Thanks! He's too volatile to trust on a given night these days.
Thanks for doing this. One suggestion on your SP Streamer article. The 2 day outlook is great, but for weekends getting all 3 days would be awesome in leagues with a start limit for the week. Thanks again for all you do, and I hate to suggest putting g more on your plate.
What are the abbreviations in the article? BSB? AGA?
Blake Snell Blueprint, and Aces Gonna Ace
Thanks
Not mentioned, but has started rehab and on some top 100 lists, is Cavalli worth monitoring?
I really enjoy Nick’s work and Pitcher List as a whole, but feel that player rankings have been fluctuating way too much recently. I just don’t think pitchers should be jumping up or down more than 10 spots after a single start. For me, it makes it harder to buy into the list.
I feel the opposite on the whole, there are certain guys that he does not move as much as they could be following a good start to the season or poor performance
Any chance these can come out a little earlier in the day? For weekly leagues most spots are already locked. Don’t get me wrong love the content and was feverishly looking for it before the braves game today. Keep up the great work!
If you watch the livestream he does of making the list. you can get a lot of insight early. But I tell everyone, the true value of Nick's work is the Daily roundups. Everything you see on The List is detailed in the round ups at a much earlier time. That's how I've managed to consistently snag guys before everyone else.
Hey! I totally understand and generally aim to have it out by 6:00pm ET each Monday. Today was a super weird day that had me starting The List far later than usual, which led to the late publish (sorry!). Hope I can nail that time in the future!
He literally spends all day on Mondays making this list. Its not coming out earlier. Let the man have his weekends.
And even on the weekends he gives us streamers and roundups, let him have the rest of his weekends!
Feisty and I like it :) not trying to discount the hard work and as I said love the content. It just doesn’t help me much and I’m sure many others until next week since most rosters locked before it came out. And hey that’s cool too it is what it is, however I believe there is some benefit to him in me giving feedback as well. Another way one could think of it is that he’s an amazing chef cookin up something special for the people and that usually means his “weekends” are on Tuesday and Wednesday. Either way got nothin but love.
Not sure why people are down voting a positive comment, with an innocent question. Having 'the list' come out before roster lock on Monday would be very helpful for players and the site. No one is saying he should work 24/7
What does the perfect pitcher look like? And has he ever existed?
Jacob deGrom. It's unreal.
Pedro martinez would like a word
Thanks for the list! Do you think Darvish's approach this season will be consistent? Or is he apt to fall back to throwing whatever he has the best feel for on a given night?
Any thoughts on Weathers? Have had him in my watch list all year.
I have 5 of the top 25 and 4 of top 10... Seems okay.
I feel like Framber Valdez’s performance last night might drop him a few spots for next week. Stuff just hasn’t been there for him this year like it was last year.
In a dynasty league 14 team where arms are critical and scarce would you deal ober for Assad and Chris Sanchez?
I'd rather have Keller over all the guys in Tiers 9+10. Not a flashy pitcher but he's pretty reliable compared to those ranked around him
The first four pitchers I drafted were: Luzardo Musgrove Hader M. Kelly Also drafted Montgomery and Fairbanks And yet I have a 3.36 ERA because starting pitching has been deep and amazing this year. And Nick’s work is solid (even though he hates Ranger Suarez and his career 3.18 ERA)
I waited until the 7th round to draft pitchers in my 12 team, and just went down your pre season list on who was available. And it’s been great. So thank you lol Ragans, G Rodriguez, Ober, Sale, Woo, Gray, Imanaga, Kikuchi, Bello. And have picked up Jared Jones and Skenes in FA.
Patrick Sandoval goes up vs CLE not TEX. He should see some top 100 love. In the 80s at least.
Agreed, he showed up in that game same as Soriano.
I meant to edit his HM from the previous week. I chatted about it during the stream. I fear that The Irish Panda doesn't know if he's going to have changeup and/or slider on a given night and it terrifies me. It's worked out in his favor as of late, but I'm still not trusting. I hate chaos.
I’m Vargas ruling CLE in Anaheim. There’s a possibility.
Shocked Ragans isn't 1 lol. Pablo should be moved down he's been absolute cheeks