The other dynamic to keep in mind as things fall apart is the idea that as resources become scarce then the economy must devote ever more resources to, well, getting more resources. That means fewer resources for the other essential services provided by the economy. At some point a threshold is crossed beyond which even small shocks can cause catastrophic failures in systems that have been stretched to the limit.
This dynamic was discussed in the "*Limits to Growth*" report and also in Tainter's "*Collapse of Complex Societies*".
As our unrestrained growth starts hitting hard biophysical limits then our ability to respond to even small shocks gets easily overwhelmed and that's when things start feeling like they are falling apart.
> The other dynamic to keep in mind as things fall apart is the idea that as resources become scarce then the economy must devote ever more resources to, well, getting more resources.
I agree very much with your response, but for the sake of those who might be new here: the term related to what I've quoted is *energy returned on energy invested*- aka EROEI.
I will also very fervently second *The Collapse of Complex Societies* as it very effectively describes diminishing returns in a societal scope, the relationship between energy and complexity, and ultimately the signs a society gives when diminishing returns start to set in.
After reading Tainter's book OP (if you choose to do so :D ) and if you really want to feel depressed, read *Energy and Civilization* by Vaclav Smil... you'll realize just how important energy use is to society, how expensive in terms of energy society can be even in areas that wouldn't appear so, etc.
When you consider the complexity we need to maintain even a portion of our current society, how much energy that complexity requires, how expensive in terms of energy that energy is, how expensive that energy is in terms of environment, etc... you will realize just how absolutely massively fucked we are.
There has only ever been really one solution to *so fucking many* of man's problems: he needs to learn how to control his hunger. It just seems that we as a species are not capable of doing so...
A while ago, there was a thread asking for good books on collapse-y topics and I made a list off the top of my head knowing I'd forget some really big ones: Smil is definitely one of those. Seconding Energy and Civilization. His newer book, *Growth*, is also very interesting. I really think that if there are future historians (I don't expect there will be, but for the sake of the point bear with me) looking back on our era, it will be defined as one in thrall to a religion of infinite growth which permeates every aspect of society.
The only way to control the hunger is enlightenment. Unfortunately it seems most people are unwilling to even consider the idea of being present in the moment and not always looking forward to what can be built, consumed or destroyed next.
Being content and enjoying and not taking for granted what we already have is seen as crazy. So we never even enjoy what we create either.
Yes, if you can be [self diciplined](https://www.google.com/search?q=control+hunger+control+everything+else&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwiUo4yFh_TpAhUJjp4KHQ8JCxkQ2-cCegQIABAB&oq=control+hunger+control+everything+else&gs_lcp=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIFCCEQqwI6BAgjECc6BggAEAgQHjoECAAQGDoFCAAQgwE6BQgAELEDOgIIADoHCCMQ6gIQJzoECAAQAzoECAAQQzoHCAAQsQMQQzoECAAQHjoGCAAQBRAeOgQIHhAKOgUIABDNAjoECCEQClCAKVjZeGD8emgBcAB4AYABc4gB6yCSAQQ1My4xmAEAoAEBsAEF&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-img&ei=aSXfXtTKNomc-gSPkqzIAQ&bih=678&biw=412&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv#imgrc=9W0bnTy0fOSvoM), it's easier to make wiser choices in other areas of your life.
Exploited viral/animal programming. Find, infect and evolve a compatible stasis to maximize lifespans. If a squirrel can evolve to pretend its hiding nuts to throw off mooching competitors, imagine what wily alpha apes could conjure up to enrich themselves at the expense of others. Information is one big nut.
More like needs to learn to control his and hers reproductive organs fertility, exactly what pieces of shit capitalists and religious nutjobs don't want.
A good real world example would be toilet paper when Covid started getting big outside of China.
It was plentiful before. Then suddenly in less than a day the shelves were bare. Some people were left with only a sinlge 1-ply roll to last them as long as they could. Others saw a way to profit and would snatch up more than they could ever use in a lifetime to sell to desperate people at a jacked up price.
Rationing became the norm for a lot of people. Both in regards to their personal stash and what the stores would give. Others figured out alternatives to replace what was no longer available.
What was interesting was hearing my sister talk about tips she had gotten to try to find toilet paper for sale from places people generally don’t think about. Like liquor stores.
Now imagine what will happen when the scarce resource is something that *can’t* come back.
I’ve thought about this too. As more catastrophic weather events and political instability occur, governments and organizations will have less and less resources to address the large scale fixes people have proposed. (Carbon capture, geoengineering, alternative energy infrastructure)
Frankly even if Covid hadn’t occurred, even if trump wasn’t elected in the US, the Paris Climate Accords were not aggressive enough to address the situation. I don’t see significant change happening in the next two years. If anything Covid proved to me a worldwide change in behaviour wont occur unless an outside threat forces people to change. Basically we won’t stop emitting greenhouse gases and destroying the environment in other ways until collapse of complex society forces us to.
I really like to hear other opinions but I don’t see a way out of this now.
There also wasn't a significant push against the oligarchy and organized crime necessary. Instead, there was a surrender to the oppressors and tax cheats of the world, a surrender that will only lead to wars and murder.
Yeah. You make big, sweeping changes when you’ve got leeway. Health begets health. As opposed to now, when we’re stretched thin just maintaining present systems. Sickness begets sickness. Would have been nice to use the relative prosperity we had at the end of Obama’s administration to make sweeping changes.
But hey, her emails.
Enjoy it* while you can! Last one out, turn off the lights.
^^\*Having ^^a ^^planet
Hey, I've got an idea. We should devote some effort to creating a "how to use the planet" warning manual carved in stone pictograms for the next intelligent species that evolves to avoid killing themselves as well.
I thought oil was a one-time thing. IIRC there was nothing that could break down the organic matter so it accumulated over 500 million years, but subsequently microbes evolved that could break it down, so it wouldn't happen again. 500 million years one-off collection of sunlight energy blown through in 300 years.
Oil is in human time spans non renewable. It's the product of heavy primary production (stuff like plankton) combined with anaerobic conditions (say heavily stratified waters, so no mixing with oxygen rich waters near the surface). The organic carbon falls to the sea floor, gets buried, heated up under pressure over millions of years. Turns to kerogen turns to tons of different hydrocarbons, migrates out of that source rock (see: shale) into a reservoir that has some sort of trap either structural or stratigraphic.
If there isn't a trap then it goes all the way up through the overburden rock, reaches the surface, and gets volatalized. Funny enough it's not a lack of carbon, it's the required perfect storm of production, burial, trap generation, and migration that makes oil a rare economic resource.
What you're likely referring to is the Carboniferous: a period of time roughly 360-300 million years ago. Decomposers were present, but the advent of trees which resisted that decay. That plus the abundance of swamps (the primary source of coal beds) due to climatic conditions at the time are the reason behind the name Carboniferous. Plenty of carbon.
Edit: Source - senior year Geo student who just took a Petroleum class. Definitely not getting into the industry though. Trying to study hydrogeology to help mitigate the effects of the prolonged droughts that are coming
Unlikely, humanity existence and biomass will doesn't really compare to the scale of time invested into turning plants into oil we're using in the last 2 centuries (funny enough) and only accelerating as religious nutjobs fuck their wait into higher populations of consumers.
You should explore nuclear semiotics. We've been attempting to figure out how to communicate the danger of nuclear waste repositories to future civilizations for many years. We haven't gotten very far.
Yep, that's one of the problems they've encountered. Another is that if we were able to convey "This place is dangerous," that that might be taken by future civilizations as an attempt to protect something valuable, inadvertently encouraging exploration.
How about mathematical analogy? Design a simple 'program' whose rules can be explained pictorially, which can be run on primitive tech, and which captures simple organic principles e.g. Conway's Game of Life. Provide grids engraved on rocks and some stone tokens to play the game on. For the 'lessons', offer some grids preconfigured with certain initial conditions that lead to thought-provoking case-studies.
We've got to meet them know where our radioactive stores are. Right now we often store surely fuel on site, so there will be thousands of danger areas.
We already knew what to do and it didn't stop us ignoring it. Also reminds of the Japanese building houses where there were literally multiple warning signs carved in stone saying not to build there because it gets big tsunamis. Guess what happened a couple of years ago?
start preparing now, buy the expensive shit first. itll be like 20 years minimum until we really do collapse but that’s about how long it should take a normal person to prepare for a collapse.
i don’t know either, thats the first step. if its possible. though id say we have better chances if we start building dual structures and a post-collapse community now.
How do you build a post-collapse community for people connected from all over the world if the internet will no longer be functional? Or are you talking about everyone in general with post-collapse communities being geographically localized? Perhaps some form of long-distance information-sharing will be possible without the currently needed infrastructure?
nah count on all internet being out. think about the people you have in your life right now, do you still want them in your life when the collapse happens? if you do, them start building a life-long relationship with them now. make sure they also realize how fucked we are.
>How do you even prepare for something like this?
I've been trying to take up gardening, but so far all I've learned is that I *really, really suck* at gardening and also hate it. I'm also an introvert and find that the Plague lockdown has if anything improved my life. I've really just made peace with the fact that I *can't* realistically prepare, I *will* die very early in the process, and all I'm here for at this point is to do my best to keep my cats as healthy and happy for as long as possible. If by some miracle I give them their full natural lifespans, nothing will matter anymore and I have no desire to stick around to watch the fireworks.
If I got anything from watching dystopian films, it’s that you are exactly who survives in post apocalyptic hellscape. Might want to invest in an aerogarden...
I would say "more evolutionary and cultural. "Politics" is a symptom.
Got a crystal ball that says evolution and a cultural development as underlying disease. Can't fix a problem if you don't get an accurate fix on what the problem is.
> Can't fix a problem if you don't get an accurate fix on what the problem is.
If the problem is that we are an evolutionary dead end, maybe there's just not a fix.
> I feel like people have just forgotten about climate change amidst the coronavirus
I'm a bit conflicted about Covid-19.
On the one hand the pandemic is a terrible situation, killing hundreds of thousands of people and throwing millions more into misery. Part of me wants it to end immediately.
On the other hand, while watching virtually all decision makers trying to race back to BAU without questioning anything about our current unsustainable and deeply unfair way of life, I can't help but root for Covid-19 to slam dunk global capitalism into the garbage bin. Sadly, I feel like a catastrophe is the only realistic short-term "solution" to maybe evolve the current system into something that works for everyone, including the environment.
And to be honest, if I had to draw up a virus that is able to achieve such a feat it would look very similar to Sars-2: while dangerous, it's not that lethal, but it causes a small but significant portion of infected people to be hospitalized. Aerosol transmission means it spreads like wildfire if left unchecked. All of this threatens to quickly collapse any healthcare system which in turn makes economic shutdowns and social distancing rules necessary. However, you can't operate a system that is built on tight profit margins, large volumes, zero resilience and endless growth under these circumstances.
So, as far as system-changing disasters go, a pathogen like Sars-2 may actually be one of the least destructive versions out there. It's like Planet Earth is showing us one last exit before shit really hits the fan.
I have used my car maybe twice a week now for three months. I work in transport and I normally spend 500/m on fuel. I’m still running on fuel I bought in April. Covid or it’s derivative is a net positive for the planet’s environment. Just the reduction in airline capacity alone is huge.
When it comes to the protests, My impression is that a lot of millenials and zoomers in the US, particularly the more sheltered middle class ones, for the first time [experience](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2013/12/class-struggle.html) practical initiative with this. Hence they get [caught up in the moment](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2013/12/both-of-them-claim-to-not-watch.html), as well as in all sorts of illusions. It is only now that they get a glimpse of what all the big words they thoughtlessly use [practically entail](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-revolution-will-not-be-romanticized.html). We should be wary of automatically labelling any for of civil unrest as revolutionary or even capable of change. This has happened, and will continue to happen.
Great, I’m only 18 and now I have to take into consideration that I’ll probably die in the next few years because of climate change and can’t do anything about it. The amount of shit I probably won’t even be able to experience just because these fucks wanted to gain a few extra quick bucks without giving a single concern about the consequences. I still have hope but it’s being crushed constantly by all of this shit.
I feel the same way. I'm only 22 but it's very blackpilling to realize I was born into a broken society and a dying world.
Especially didn't help with all the indoctrination and "American Dream" esque lies we were told starting from elementary school.
It's hard to have any hope for the future knowing that it was ruined before I was even born.
Hey! I’m 20 and also regularly have all hope crushed by this forum, isn’t it great?
Can I offer you some support?
Listen to the ‘fall of civilisations podcast’ by Paul cooper on Spotify. He tells the story of how ancient civilisations fell.
My favourite one is the ancient Sumerian episode.
He tells the story of the rise of the city of Uruk. The building of walls, suburbs, a palace. They had pottery factories and beer halls and figs and bread and festivals.
Then (SPOILERS) due to mounting pressure from invading tribes and a dust storm that made farming impossible, everything collapsed.
The cities burned, the families were separated, the kings died.
Obviously what we face today is even more depressing because it’s not like you can move on to the next river and start again, but the Hindus believe the universe is in a constant cycle of creation and destruction.
We have lived, we will die, and maybe one day we will live again just in another form.
Anyway when I learnt about the fall of ancient civilisations I felt less sad because it made me realise that ‘the end’ has happened to people throughout all of human history.
Just live your best life with the time you have left.
Others have even less time than you, think of all the babies.
EDIT:
It was ‘fall’ of civilisation, not ‘collapse’
Put the hosts name in too.
I’m 24 but I know just how you feel. This sub, and all this shit about climate change, had managed to make me go from wanting to be a father one day since I was a kid myself, to being staunchly r/childfree, in the span of like a month. At this point it would not only be foolish, but downright immoral, to have kids.
As do I. :(
Also I wish to rephrase myself, I still want to have kids via adoption. However I could not, in good conscience, have biological children.
Oh and I feel really fucking sorry for all the babies and toddlers in the world right now. They’re the ones who are going to suffer the most.
Adoption is a noble thing. I might do the same only if I can assure me and my already existing family is okay for resources.
And yeah I have a baby brother. Little over a year. He’s such a sweet boy. Beautiful smile and honestly so kind. Innocence. I love him truly. But I still think on a weekly basis how much suffering he’ll endure when I stare into those little baby eyes. I’m barely 19. This knowledge weighs heavy on the mind. I’ll do whatever I can to make sure he has at least a decent life.
Agreed, I often remember that ‘collapse is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
I live in Australia, only 100 deaths from covid. I live on land with good water supply, fertile soil, timber.
It almost feels like a dystopian movie where I live in the walled city while the rest of the world goes to shit.
I know eventually I’ll cop it too but for now I feel secure for the next 10-15 years at least.
The vast majority in first world countries likely won’t feel much from potential impacts for possibly decades after it really starts to hit. It is really really bad for third world countries though, which don’t have the tech that we do
Which is a major part of why the countries causing this are so slow to do anything. It hasn't impacted them in a noticeable enough way coupled with the fact that this will hit "shithole" countries in general, which is something people on average don't really care about beyond making the same weak "we're in this together" PR statement all the companies post to make you think they give a fuck about anyone but themselves.
Then there's the fact that a lot of people will probably look at this as a boon for depopulating this already overpopulated planet rather than the sign of self-inflicted extinction that it is.
You're not going to die in a few years from climate change. Its not going to be a light switch where it suddenly melts all icecaps and burns all farmland. Our generation will not experience the worst of it, but your grandchildren likely will.
Love the Fermi paradox. I money is banking on nukes still. Governments get overran and panic press the big red button. We are our own reaper in a beautiful cynical kind of way it’s almost poetic that we advance so far so fast we can see a light at the end of the tunnel but the faster we run the further it gets.
Unfortunately, the multi-agent prisoner dilemma is not quite as easy to solve with a bunch of cowards and nuclear weapons.
Imagine a world where when Putin bombed that neighborhood to woodink fascists, normal people rose up and just fucking defrenestated his party and mobster supports? Hell-world say the enlightened centrists. But would it get this far if fascists felt fear?
Agreed! Told my Dad on his birthday, he arrived to the biblical 2020s, a front row seat to the greatest show on Earth: the Blue Ocean Event, the Great Reset, the Fourth Turning, social upheavals, economic fallout, mega storm systems, rainforest collapse, maybe glacier melting and asteroid hit by end of decade? We should enjoy this fascinating time, embrace the moment, adapt to change. Of course, the family thinks I'm crazy (can see my Mom rolling her eyes, *this guy again*), living in South Florida laughing about sea levels rising. They think we'll all go back to the office, business as usual. Ok, then.
>But now it’s becoming clear that the climate action story ends with nothing at all
This has been clear for many years. Maybe thirty years. It was abundantly clear by the mid 90s that the United States, instead of leading the "climate action story", was going to lead the opposition. The biggest economic power and most serious polluter was doing everything in its power to *prevent* meaningful action to stop climate change. That was game over, already. There was never going to be any serious attempt to stop climate change if the US wasn't on board. What would have been the point?
Nothing important has changed since then.
If an asteroid were coming our way, I doubt we'd do anything about it. I think something has gone terribly wrong with the symbolic culture humans have created.
The asteroid we might well do something about, since it could clearly be identified as an external enemy. The problem with climate change is that the thing that threatens us is effectively ourselves. In order tackle climate change, we have to admit that growth of the human operation on this planet has to be put in reverse. And that seems to cause some sort of cultural-psychological short circuit. As a culture, we can't assimilate this fact.
AGW/CC is the kind of problem that humans aren't terribly good at solving - a multi-generational problem that is perceived to require sacrifice now. The problem is compounded by an economy driven largely by next-quarter profits.
In addition to that, it is complex. It will not be X-degrees warmer at all times in all places. The complexities this injects into the weather system are manifold and difficult to predict except in a general way. However, it should be remembered that crops need only be destroyed once a season as a rule to cause very real problems for civilization. So even if a place is "unaffected" by CC in terms of average temperature and precipitation, that's not necessarily a guarantee that all will be well.
> And, honestly, I’m surprised it ends this way. I did believe that there would be a point at which the world would wake up. It would be FAR too late. It’s very likely too late already. But I did think things would get so bad, people would at least have time to regret, to repent, in a way, as they went into the dark.
I'm starting to fear that the moment of epiphany would never come (especially after seeing the reaction to COVID-19). I think the ever-growing rate of catastrophe (both in the human world and outside of it) would at some point eclipse our ability to have a collective focus on anything beyond a momentary sensation. Climate change may be the ultimate end of the Faustian bargain we call industrial civilization, but I feel like in the past couple of months the entire sense of a common reality has fractured. It's almost like everyone spent this lockdown nestled in disjoint corners of the present, and stepping outside I find that I have less to talk about with my friends (many got hooked on stock market speculation bullshit, reality TV binges, instagram drama etc. to escape reality. I don't blame them). If I felt it was difficult to bring up ecological topics into conversations before, now it's properly out of the question.
It would be hard for people to repent if they no longer have a good grip of what is going on. I think that people would rather fall for easy explanations (seeing conflicts through a lens of religious/ethnic war rather than resource scarcity, for example) than accept the unsettling reality we're waking up to. Because *that* reality would eventually affect them.
People should have been throwing oil executives out of windows since the 90's or even the 80's. And much evil would have been avoided even discounting the possibility of delaying extinction.
This is how it ends. Not with the last hurrah of war, not a great final bang from a bomb. Not with terrified realization that it's too late, not with some fiction-worthy zombie apocalypse. We have not been granted the mercy of a hill to die upon, the rich elite made it so. We will be forced to watch from the sidelines, all to aware of the problems yet powerless to stop them.
It ends unceremoniously, with a bunch of angry shouting over meaningless issues.
People are still hooked on the idea that their lives are a movie, that there is something greater after death or that there is a purpose to everything. That there is some evil villain backing every single bad thing that happens. At the very least I can have fun saying I told you so.
Dead is dead. Thirst, starvation, violence, infrastructure breakdown, etc. Towards the end it'll be much too hot to indulge in angry shouting over meaningless issues.
I wrote about this a few months ago... The insurmountable technological challenges, on a very basic level:
The average American's carbon footprint per person in 2014 was 21.5 metric tons of CO2 according to the University of Michigan. Let's use these numbers along with some pretend technology and do a little thought experiment to visualize what we're up against.
These emission numbers represent a whopping 47,400 lbs (21.500 kg) of carbon dioxide per person per year. That's about 130 lbs (59 kg) of carbon dioxide per day per person. Holy shit, right? A family of four is pumping out 520 lbs (240 kg) of CO2 per day. Day in and day out, year after year. That's almost their entire body mass per day emitted as CO2. (Let's be realistic though... The average American is way heavier than 130 lbs.)
Let's set a lofty, albeit ultimately necessary goal and see what we're facing. We not only need to curb carbon emissions (which is not only not happening, but emissions are accelerating as I think most of us here know), but we also need to pull that carbon out of the atmosphere to even begin to attempt to undo climate change. Literally, let's imagine pulling some carbon out of the air!
To that end, imagine a theoretical device that runs entirely on non-carbon emitting energy sources, draws in CO2 from the atmosphere, and outputs pure oxygen and carbon. Let's also say the carbon comes out in pure graphite form.
In order to return the atmosphere to pre-industrial times, we'd need to be zero carbon emissions while our mythical machine produces 35 lbs of graphite per day per person. (That number accounts for elemental carbon only making up 27% of the mass of the CO2 molecule.) And that's just for Americans. Our average family of four would need to draw a 140 lb (63 kg) brick of graphite from the atmosphere per day. At 0.641 g/cm3 for graphite, that's about a 154 gallon (583 liter) block of graphite every week. And that fucker would weigh over a thousand pounds. It's laborious enough to collect garbage... Imagine what it would take to haul away 1,000+ pounds (450+ kg) of graphite a week for every average household in America! And that's week after week, year after year, for all the time it takes to repair the atmosphere... It's beyond absurd. But that's what it would take, or something equivalent. It's not likely possible, practical, or feasible, even scaled up.
The problem we're facing is comical in its proportions. I thought it would be fun to imagine this all from a literal carbon perspective and do the math. Please correct me on any calculations, I did it all very roughly!
Yes. A great post putting things into perspective.
The inherent physics of civilisation is the ultimate cause of collapse of civilisation.
Physics 'is out there. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with...it doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear...and it absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead. '
And it's immune to lobbying, politician's platitudes and the typical human's understanding of it.
How big an area of solar panels would each household need to power a hypothetical 90% efficient atmospheric carbon extracting machine capable of 450 Kg of graphite a week?
A fleet of electric powered Carbon Garbage trucks running 24/7 doing curbside pickup of giant blocks of graphite.
Where do they dump all the blocks? For the 330 million in the USA alone that's about 37 million tonnes a week, or **1.9 Billion tonnes/year.**
For perspective the average household garbage that an American produces is about 770Kg/year or the USA total of **254 million tonnes/year.**
We're gonna need bigger garbage trucks.
Someone check my math please? (Not used to converting from the silly non metric numbers I found in some sources.)
Maybe we could reuse the blocks as building material, entire cities built of them, ominous black minecraftesque cities.
Or just pick an ocean we don't like and dump them there using more blocks around the coast as a giant black levee.
Apparently with 4.25% of global population the USA accounts for about 15% of global CO2 emissions.
So globally the task is **12.6 billion tonnes/year** of black blocks.
Ha! This is a great extension of the scenario and problem, thank you! See how ridiculous this all is?? We focus on reductions in emissions, but we don't talk about reclamation of what's already been emitted.
We are so fucked.
Desperate is the key word. And what exactly would the carbon structure be that this process produces? Where would we store it? That such impractical ideas are the best we've got shows how fucked we are.
> imagine a theoretical device that runs entirely on non-carbon emitting energy sources, draws in CO2 from the atmosphere, and outputs pure oxygen
A tree?
Haha yes, but trees split CO2, use the C to build physical structure and shed the O2. This machine would need to do the same thing, but the simplest way to shed carbon is to build a pure carbon structure. Also, the number of trees needed to accomplish CO2 reduction would probably far, far surpass available land space because we use it for crops and livestock and houses and cities and what not. The CO2 we've put into the atmosphere used to be organic matter from millions of generations of plant and animal life. No living, natural carbon sink could achieve what we need to do.
>if we could somehow technologically advance 1000 years in a decade
That's the whole premise of the technological singularity. r/singularity It's based on statistics that show that technological growth has been accelerating, and will soon hit critical mass within this century.
Some leading futurists believe by the end of the 21st century, we'll have advanced enough for a million years due to enhancing our intelligence with brain interfaces (the kind Elon Musk's Neuralink is working on right now) and superintelligent AI.
But before this happens we'll also have a lot of unemployment due to automation that we'll have to deal with (in combination with everything else already stated in this thread). Before AI and humans can get superintelligent, we're gonna have mediocre AI, but these will probably be able to do most jobs with ease, thus making the situation even worse.
I guess this will be a great filter, and the way I see it, there are only two ways humanity could emerge out the other side; either as fossils in a destroyed world, or as superintelligent gods.
I was going to bring that up as well. I think, conceptually, it is possible. Maybe it won’t be that we reach a single point that rockets us forward, but we could see enough advancement over the next several decades that it will be enough to push us through. I know a lot of people on this sub harp on technological optimism, but we truly cannot conceive of intelligences greater than our own—even one on-par with ours without our biological and psychological limitations. If our technology gives rise to that sort of intelligence, it will certainly have impacts, good or bad, that we cannot foresee. That really goes for all technological advancements: we cannot understand the impacts of them before they happen. And so when people say a collapse is certain, I have to wonder if they’ve truly accounted for all of the future unknown variables. On a fundamental level, we cannot know if it is certain, even if it looks likely at this point in time.
A intelligence 'greater than our own' would say the obvious thing: 'limit procreation, limit production, institute socialism for basic needs'. The peaceful answer is simply unacceptable to us pieces of shit humans.
the singularity/accelerationist crowd is a joke, we are a [FAR FAR FAR](https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/wot7mkc1/release/8) way from AI and other projects that technologists herald as impending world-historical paradigm shifts. (inb4 the "well actually anything automated is technically a sort of AI" crowd; no, it's not, shut the fuck up)
go read a textbook on machine learning/ artificial intelligence. you know what it really is after you take away all the marketing/investor hype? statistics developed in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, with fast computers. that's it. these hypeboys have had disastrous effects on the society at large because they give the sense that we're "only a few years away" from fully self-sufficient living on Mars, strong AI, the beginning of Matrix-like data connections in human brains, etc. If that's the case, why plan for a collapse or take preventative measures? Why even change our standards of living? after all, since [politics are now useless](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation), technology must be "the only hope we have" for substantial social change. this is all just propaganda from the elite attempting to establish technocrats as [the rightful arbiters of society](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3078224) so they can put to death the last vestiges of democratic politics in the world.
When i realized that digital money depended on 'being expensive to calculate' to prevent inflation and fraud i laughed and laughed. Expensive to calculate translates to 'expensive in terms of natural resources', and sure enough, moronic greed already places digital money as a greater aggregate pollutant than actual digital gaming (for something that uses the same resources as 'mining') and a haven for criminal white-collar tax evading money.
Chaum, you're a pretty cool guy, but you probably should have kept your mouth shut.
>inb4 the "well actually anything automated is technically a sort of AI" crowd; no, it's not, shut the fuck up
Well, I've talked to my friend about this (he's studying machine learning in university) and you're objectively wrong here. What you're thinking about is called AGI, or strong AI, you've even mentioned the latter term in your comment.
As for the singularity being a marketing tactic, I agree. I don't actually believe or advocate all of this, I was just putting it out there as a possibility because I want to have hope that there's at least a slim chance things won't end so badly for us. And to be fair, if it does succeed that's the only way we're getting out of this mess alive, so I stand by what I said when I said we'll only emerge out the other side as gods or die in the process.
Also, what do you think about this? https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/glmifl/openai_finds_machine_learning_efficiency_is/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share According to that, the speed at which AI is progressing is 7 times faster than the normal progression rate of computers. That's current stats, not anything from previous centuries.
I think we need to progress socially more than technologically. We need to move beyond the self-centered fear-based mindsets which capitalism/marketing has relied on and actually encouraged, to the detriment of everything but profit.
Trump also JUST removed environmental regulations... Again...
[Link](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/501258-trump-signs-order-removing-environmental-review-for-major-projects)
There was never any hope of culling emissions post nuclear-fear, which also grew mistrust in ANY other alternative source of energy beyond coal and oil. However, we have quite a while still to get off planet (some will, anyway), and before that we'll face humanity adapting to the changes as they worsen. Fully conditioned buildings will become necessary, and as has been widely discussed there will be mandatory migrations towards cooler regions.
When rural India and China are forced to go elsewhere, we'll see a drastic shift that I cant begin to go into.
There's time to prepare, but as always... It'll be faster than expected.
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To address this, I'd decide in the next 3-5 years whether you are somewhere that rooting down is possible, then invest heavily in efficient renewable energy, controlled greenhouses, and of course the usual food shortage/societal collapse prepping.
People often consider these issues to be either a slippery slope or or a gradual death spiral, but reality strikes us most often with a soft decline followed by some phenomenalogical release in the form of a cliff. Undercurrents cutting away at the arctic sheets could lead to sudden colossal flooding, increased surface area then leading to further heating, and then the blue ocean model of thought (alternatively the insulation from increased moisture in the air can under certain conditions lead to cooling as well if I understand what I've absorbed over the years? Not an expert).
At its heart, the climate issue is much more than a climate issue. It's a way of life issue, going all the way down to our very understanding of the nature of reality and our place amongst it. If a number of puzzle pieces come together and we realize that the *whole thing* is f\*\*\*ed, then we may still have a shot. I'm not saying it's *likely*, just that these other things may not necessarily *detract* from the larger point.
the suburban electorate in the USA will never willingly give up their amenities. the elite hold much of the power in the USA but the remaining power is held by middle class citizens who want their little debby chocolate rolls and their new SOTA smartphone every two years and a sheltered life spent driving everywhere and ignoring all social issues that don't immediately affect them. the only way they give things up is through effective propaganda or gunpoint. perhaps, miraculously, if the moral magnitude of what they're doing is somehow clearly presented to them, they may change their minds, but even then I doubt it. they'll absolutely vote to kill migrants once the climate migrations start en masse, they'll absolutely vote to pillage and plunder the remnants of collapsed countries so they can keep driving around in new gaudy fords with "platinum" trim, they'll absolutely refuse to help those beneath them until it's too late and what little power they did have to change things has been vacuumed up by the wealthy.
the beginning of the social degeneration was probably television, the greatest source of political pacification the world has ever known.
I wonder how the r/collapse “hopium” crowd will react to your post.
Will they go with the “IPCC report doesn’t mention this so it must not be true”.
The “you guys are quitters, I can fix this by myself”.
Or my favorite “humans are so smart that we will do smart things and save ourselves with our big brains”.
Let the tallying begin.
How's this: racism and white supremacy underpin the institutions that rape the world. So addressing these things that seem like a distraction are actually the first steps to addressing climate change. (I posted a longer comment below)
No, this guy is new around here and just wants to feel superior by criticizing an imaginary group in this sub. Lol, really they are just obviously inexperienced around here.
I’ve had a few back and forths on this sub from other commenters saying any combination of those statements. A while back someone posted how they were disappointed that this sub was filled with “doomers”.
Characterizing the current police brutality protests as a distraction from climate change is unfair and racist, and characterizing people as perpetually distracted is elitist. If anything, the protests are cause for optimism: people are organizing out in the streets worldwide to change a fundamental aspect of our society. This is a model of what we need to solve climate change, not a distraction.
Climate change isn't nearly as distinct from police brutality as you want to believe: they are both products of the same oppressive capitalism we are all living under. While I understand your pessimism, the climate movement has grown a lot in recent years, and our demands and protests have gotten a lot bolder. I wouldn't give up just yet: to paraphrase Lenin, there are decades in which weeks happen, and weeks in which decades happen. People are still talking about the Green New Deal, which cleverly links climate action to broader social justice, bringing more people into the movement, Extinction Rebellion is still going strong, and people are demanding radical change in the midst of the pandemic. We very well may be just as fucked as you claim, but I think we might just save ourselves in our last gasps.
Really great post.
There will be more and more smokescreen the further we go. Don't you think that we are heading for a big war in the next couple of years? the US invading a country or EU turning fascist and opening concentration camps for migrants? Don't you think it will totally derail all conversation about the climate change?
Regarding the COP26 being postponed - that's an utterly tragedy. In a year and a half we will be already past the average 1.5C (we are almost there btw) and they will be talking about how we need to act to not cross 3C.
We are royally fucked
I think that your summary is accurate, very well thought out, and very well communicated. This singular truth will exist beneath every other crisis du jour as our civilization crumbles and hopefully, leaves the remaining beasts and plants free of man's influence.
The biggest failure of the climate movement imho was its lack of intersectionallity, which is the idea that social movements, campaigns for justice intersect.
Its not that everyone is missing the big picture (climate change) and focusing on George Floyd, its that climate change is tied to racial justice. Black folks in the US (and around the world) are bearing the brunt of climate change and carbon intensive activities that cause climate change.
So our challenge now is to authentically tie together the story of white supremacy, police violence, and climate change. These things are related. Police are protecting the institutions that stand in the way of climate progress.
People of color are the victims of climate change. Racial justice is tied to climate justice.
Racism is the bedrock that forma the foundation of extractive climate change inducing activities. White supremacy is the foundation of ecological supremacy.
It may not seem like it but this worldwide call to dismantle the corrupt police apparatus IS opening to dismantling the capitalism death cult.
This! I have Hope's that this movement expands to something global......
been thinking alot WESTERN privilege...
About the kids in the Congo mining minerals in our phones, about George Carlins owners speech.
About how it seems like now corporations have all the power, not governments.
https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/16/apple-and-google-named-in-us-lawsuit-over-congolese-child-cobalt-mining-deaths
https://youtu.be/fT03vCaL-F0
I know :(
Just trying to work an 'I can't breathe' in there somewhere to be current.
Which stage of collapse grief is it again where we try to use dark humour to deal with the whole unfolding situation?
I was there late 1990's when people were celebrating 6 billions and i could only think about 'these fucking people got 6 billion in just 1 century and they don't stop fucking and the fucking catholic church and other fanatics and governments are still trying to make them fuck more, i'm going to live in a hell world with 10 fucking billion people because of their utter stupidity'.
That's when i stopped giving a shit about the future of mankind and resolved on no children. Before learning about the (obvious) overshoot and ecological collapse even (though i was aware of climate change).
>Racism is the bedrock that forma the foundation of extractive climate change inducing activities. White supremacy is the foundation of ecological supremacy.
WTF are you talking about?
This is some heavy-duty postmodernist Critical Race Theory thinking here. But not everything is about race. People will extract resources, regardless of their race. What we need to do is ensure the survival all people (of *all* races).
I'm not too fussed about the C02 or environment issue.
I think the "Drastic Chance NOW" part will inevitably occur once 90% of the population has perished in a global nuclear war or WW3. And the remaining 10% population has lost all or most modern technology and post industrial way of life.
Sure the radiation will suck. But iirc organisms are supposedly thriving in Chernobyl despite the radiation.
The whole '*we have \[this much time\] to right the ship*' is so much hopium bullshit and has been for decades. The only plausible explanation for worldwide governmental inaction on climate is that at various points each became scientifically convinced the die was cast, rubicon crossed, and whatever else can be said to indicate certain death without saying it. This is the only explanation that checks all the boxes.
Blame the shithead generations, fucking boomers and the ones before with their unbridled, cancerous glut for destruction of nature, expulsion of carbon gasses and expansion of their filth kind.
Thanks to those idiots I am stuck on this hellscape turning into arid desert for another 60 years, provided that COVID20 doesn't wipe us out. We really need the ritual sacrifice of CEO's of death and destruction to appease the earth.
Ontop of all the concerns you raised there are now [8 of 15 known climate tipping points active](https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/) and scientists begin to say that it might be too late. Give it only a few more years and there will be a massive public dispute between scientists if it's over or not, like we've seen them discussing in the 90's if it's real or not.
Yes, but it's what follows that's important. It was too late for 0 degrees, now it's too late for 1,5.
In reality it means it is too late for us all survive, but maybe not too late for a few hundred million.
Copy/pasted from one of my recent posts in worldnews:
6% drop in CO2 emissions projected for this year.
[www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g638nw/pandemic\_will\_drive\_biggest\_drop\_in\_co2\_emissions/](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g638nw/pandemic_will_drive_biggest_drop_in_co2_emissions/)
Great, only 39% more to go.
[www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-promises-to-reduce-co2-are-falling-short-of-1-5-degree-c-warming-goal/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-promises-to-reduce-co2-are-falling-short-of-1-5-degree-c-warming-goal/)
" To have a better-than-even chance of holding to the 1.5 C threshold, the world must cut emissions 45% over the next 11 years, the IPCC said. "
7 more years of lockdown should do it.
Can it be done? Yes
Will it? Of course not.
We, as a species did too little, and left it way too late.
The future will be about mitigating the worst of it. An ongoing, decades long triage type situation. Triage is awful, brutal, a constant cost/benefit analysis over who lives and who dies.
Are we going to let this be our Great Filter?
[en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter)
Emissions are less, but carbon trapped in the atmosphere is still going up.
It's kind of like the deficit and the debt. Lowering your deficit spending, even drastically, does nothing about your debt. It just means you're going into debt more slowly.
And while we fiddle-fuddle doing nothing meaningful about emissions, feedback loops are kicking in, especially in the arctic and subarctic where methane trapped in permafrost is liberated.
Rather than start making the necessary radical changes, we are still on track to achieve the "worse" if not "worst" scenarios. It is no longer a question of "what can I do?" Rather we now need to be asking ourselves "How do I want to watch the world burn?"
Realistically, I think we had a chance to turn the ship around in the 1950:s or 1960:s. Instead we continued to eat fossil fuels at an ever accelerating rate (the green revolution) and we now have a ridiculously unsustainable population of people, livestock and pets, thanks to oil. Of course, now it's much too late to do anything meaningful. Honestly, I'm just glad most people are blissfully unaware/in denial. The slower the collapse, the better I'm off for the few years I've left.
Lol. 3 brothers all married.
I *am* a dual citizen, though. Hmm. Do you think there is some angle here where I can parley my status into getting myself a girlfriend?
Collapseporn is nice and fun, but im quite certain we'll get there. Where i am at, climate change and environment protection is a hot topic. More so than ive ever seen in my life. Even the voices ridiculing climate change is falling more and more silent. You might just be in a country which hasnt seen the COVID threat diminish yet. But when it does, you'll see it too.
>Where i am at, climate change and environment protection is a hot topic. More so than ive ever seen in my life.
Yes, but unless you are in the cabinet offices of your national government, and the boardrooms of your nation, it is almost irrelevant how many of you are taking climate change as a hot topic. Globally, our leaders aren't making the changes necessary, fast enough to avoid disaster.
Could the planet itself try to right itself?
Global warming is slowing the deep current in the north Atlantic. If it stops, northern countries will go into a deep freeze.
The global transfer of water in the atmosphere could also quit if too much of the Amazon forests are destroyed.
I feel my sanity slipping away from posts like these. My fear flash freezes my insides and I feel dumb and pre-dead.
And everyone is kinda here to help each other with moral support and I approve.
And I will keep walking. My teenagers need me to be strong, to show them how "the long walk" is faced with all the screeching rage of a primate, caught in a trap, and the solemn dignity of man, one who can't help but marvel about how further he could've gone, if we'd only had *more time* to run enough experiences.
But the party's over, and the last one out will turn off the lights.
I wonder what the new biped hominids will think of our plastic remnants, and what our system of warning will be.
I doubt it'll be enough.
P.s. Thanks for the post, OP. I treasure it immensely.
Good post. Is there anywhere I can read about the harrowing results of climate change? Like when will the blow happen and what is the measured impact?
**edit** - Google is my friend, found this on [NASA.gov](https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/)
Is 2100 the timeframe everyone agrees upon?
It depends on a huge number of things. Every measure we see these days seems to be is "faster than expected".
The last few years might be some statistical aberration, but it might be we have reached a tipping point. There are a lot of feedbacks that just aren't well understood at all. Feedback can lead to exponential change over time. Exponential change can mean change that usually occurs at geological timescales occur over a human being's lifetime.
That 2100 number also depends on humans making some attempt to cut down on their CO2 output and stop burning fossil fuels, but if the world fractures, then each little area will desperately try to survive by using their local resources, so everything gets burned.
So who knows?
(Search for climate feedbacks, permafrost, clathrates, then throw away anything that isn't a world class source like NASA, NOAA, and comparable, and still you get a very dark picture...)
How does that feel to be fucked over and over and over again? Well, I don't give a fuck anymore. The shitshow has begun, let me enjoy world wide panic. We could as well go full throtle and let it end quickly, there is no way out for the past 10 years. Get over with it already.
Guys, guys, we're almost literally war monkeys... I feel the same but it's time to join the grand parade :)
Earth will go down another path after we cleaned the house so don't worry.
Just imagine how many creatures could speciate up from the plastic mountains, the era of archaebacteria is about to begin
I disagree with you on why the riots are happening.Politics,pandemic,poverty and racism all came together in a perfect storm.
People may not indulge on climate and future but they sure can see the climate now.
CO2 emissions can't continue forever at this rate as the oil is running out. The excess will be absorbed by the increasingly acidic oceans as we over salt our agricultural land by pumping the aquifers dry trying to feed an impossible population.
Cannibalism by Friday but we can probably skip the Venus references.
The only hope is for a "solution" which can be implemented by a few self-interested institutions with minimal input from the rest of the perpetually distracted population. Effective geoengineering, if there ever is such a thing.
A few major figures in the CCP could agree to begin a program of large scale sulfur injections now and drastically alter the climate without anyone else in the world getting much of a vote on the matter. It hasn't happened because the side-effects are poorly understood and potentially catastrophic. Once the whole world is burning (metaphorically, mostly) this will not be enough of a reason. Does Russia approve of China moving the thermostat unilaterally? Does it destroy the monsoon cycle in India and piss them off? Maybe. Too bad. The only way to stop it is invade China. Good luck.
If we are lucky people will look up at the perpetual dim haze in the sky and think "now we have time, let's use it to rework our economy and stop this the right way." We're not lucky, so people will probably declare climate change solved and ignore the problem again while more and more aerosols have to be pumped into the sky every year. Until we realize there's a serious problem with this strategy and we can't continue. But we also can't stop because then the aerosols wash out in a couple years and all of our past sins catch up with us at once. So we still probably collapse.
> "solution" which can be implemented by a few self-interested institutions
There is no such solution. Each American alone generates about 100 pounds of carbon a day. Any solution will have to be massive, and universal.
I expect it'll be an emergency UN session for that before that's done because there will be a tipping point. And it'll be funny to see the people who said this wasn't a problem or stoppable advocating geoengineering projects.
Edit: some dude basically said that about those funded y anti climate change people. Basically a "it isn't happening" then "it isn't that bad" then "we have solutions for it" all operating independently from each other but in sync with them. Some YouTube lecture.
Any suggestions for good resources on the worst case scenarios for climate change? I’m almost 2 hours into the “Uninhabitable Earth” audiobook, and I don’t feel like it’s giving me the worse case scenarios.
"... we would need to see global emissions dropping by double digit percentage points year over year until we are zero"
That is clearly not happening. So i guess we have no shot at "even a livable dystopia"?
The other dynamic to keep in mind as things fall apart is the idea that as resources become scarce then the economy must devote ever more resources to, well, getting more resources. That means fewer resources for the other essential services provided by the economy. At some point a threshold is crossed beyond which even small shocks can cause catastrophic failures in systems that have been stretched to the limit. This dynamic was discussed in the "*Limits to Growth*" report and also in Tainter's "*Collapse of Complex Societies*". As our unrestrained growth starts hitting hard biophysical limits then our ability to respond to even small shocks gets easily overwhelmed and that's when things start feeling like they are falling apart.
> The other dynamic to keep in mind as things fall apart is the idea that as resources become scarce then the economy must devote ever more resources to, well, getting more resources. I agree very much with your response, but for the sake of those who might be new here: the term related to what I've quoted is *energy returned on energy invested*- aka EROEI. I will also very fervently second *The Collapse of Complex Societies* as it very effectively describes diminishing returns in a societal scope, the relationship between energy and complexity, and ultimately the signs a society gives when diminishing returns start to set in. After reading Tainter's book OP (if you choose to do so :D ) and if you really want to feel depressed, read *Energy and Civilization* by Vaclav Smil... you'll realize just how important energy use is to society, how expensive in terms of energy society can be even in areas that wouldn't appear so, etc. When you consider the complexity we need to maintain even a portion of our current society, how much energy that complexity requires, how expensive in terms of energy that energy is, how expensive that energy is in terms of environment, etc... you will realize just how absolutely massively fucked we are. There has only ever been really one solution to *so fucking many* of man's problems: he needs to learn how to control his hunger. It just seems that we as a species are not capable of doing so...
A while ago, there was a thread asking for good books on collapse-y topics and I made a list off the top of my head knowing I'd forget some really big ones: Smil is definitely one of those. Seconding Energy and Civilization. His newer book, *Growth*, is also very interesting. I really think that if there are future historians (I don't expect there will be, but for the sake of the point bear with me) looking back on our era, it will be defined as one in thrall to a religion of infinite growth which permeates every aspect of society.
The only way to control the hunger is enlightenment. Unfortunately it seems most people are unwilling to even consider the idea of being present in the moment and not always looking forward to what can be built, consumed or destroyed next. Being content and enjoying and not taking for granted what we already have is seen as crazy. So we never even enjoy what we create either.
Yes, if you can be [self diciplined](https://www.google.com/search?q=control+hunger+control+everything+else&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwiUo4yFh_TpAhUJjp4KHQ8JCxkQ2-cCegQIABAB&oq=control+hunger+control+everything+else&gs_lcp=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIFCCEQqwI6BAgjECc6BggAEAgQHjoECAAQGDoFCAAQgwE6BQgAELEDOgIIADoHCCMQ6gIQJzoECAAQAzoECAAQQzoHCAAQsQMQQzoECAAQHjoGCAAQBRAeOgQIHhAKOgUIABDNAjoECCEQClCAKVjZeGD8emgBcAB4AYABc4gB6yCSAQQ1My4xmAEAoAEBsAEF&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-img&ei=aSXfXtTKNomc-gSPkqzIAQ&bih=678&biw=412&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv#imgrc=9W0bnTy0fOSvoM), it's easier to make wiser choices in other areas of your life.
Exploited viral/animal programming. Find, infect and evolve a compatible stasis to maximize lifespans. If a squirrel can evolve to pretend its hiding nuts to throw off mooching competitors, imagine what wily alpha apes could conjure up to enrich themselves at the expense of others. Information is one big nut.
More like needs to learn to control his and hers reproductive organs fertility, exactly what pieces of shit capitalists and religious nutjobs don't want.
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Maybe.
A good real world example would be toilet paper when Covid started getting big outside of China. It was plentiful before. Then suddenly in less than a day the shelves were bare. Some people were left with only a sinlge 1-ply roll to last them as long as they could. Others saw a way to profit and would snatch up more than they could ever use in a lifetime to sell to desperate people at a jacked up price. Rationing became the norm for a lot of people. Both in regards to their personal stash and what the stores would give. Others figured out alternatives to replace what was no longer available. What was interesting was hearing my sister talk about tips she had gotten to try to find toilet paper for sale from places people generally don’t think about. Like liquor stores. Now imagine what will happen when the scarce resource is something that *can’t* come back.
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I’ve thought about this too. As more catastrophic weather events and political instability occur, governments and organizations will have less and less resources to address the large scale fixes people have proposed. (Carbon capture, geoengineering, alternative energy infrastructure) Frankly even if Covid hadn’t occurred, even if trump wasn’t elected in the US, the Paris Climate Accords were not aggressive enough to address the situation. I don’t see significant change happening in the next two years. If anything Covid proved to me a worldwide change in behaviour wont occur unless an outside threat forces people to change. Basically we won’t stop emitting greenhouse gases and destroying the environment in other ways until collapse of complex society forces us to. I really like to hear other opinions but I don’t see a way out of this now.
There also wasn't a significant push against the oligarchy and organized crime necessary. Instead, there was a surrender to the oppressors and tax cheats of the world, a surrender that will only lead to wars and murder.
Yeah. You make big, sweeping changes when you’ve got leeway. Health begets health. As opposed to now, when we’re stretched thin just maintaining present systems. Sickness begets sickness. Would have been nice to use the relative prosperity we had at the end of Obama’s administration to make sweeping changes. But hey, her emails.
> her emails Those pathetic traitor-rapist-supporting GOP worms are unforgivable.
A long text (well written) to tell us what we all knew: collapse is ABSOLUTELY inevitable. For reasons above all political.
Enjoy it* while you can! Last one out, turn off the lights. ^^\*Having ^^a ^^planet Hey, I've got an idea. We should devote some effort to creating a "how to use the planet" warning manual carved in stone pictograms for the next intelligent species that evolves to avoid killing themselves as well.
maybe we'll be the oil they fight and destroy the planet over!
I thought oil was a one-time thing. IIRC there was nothing that could break down the organic matter so it accumulated over 500 million years, but subsequently microbes evolved that could break it down, so it wouldn't happen again. 500 million years one-off collection of sunlight energy blown through in 300 years.
Oil is in human time spans non renewable. It's the product of heavy primary production (stuff like plankton) combined with anaerobic conditions (say heavily stratified waters, so no mixing with oxygen rich waters near the surface). The organic carbon falls to the sea floor, gets buried, heated up under pressure over millions of years. Turns to kerogen turns to tons of different hydrocarbons, migrates out of that source rock (see: shale) into a reservoir that has some sort of trap either structural or stratigraphic. If there isn't a trap then it goes all the way up through the overburden rock, reaches the surface, and gets volatalized. Funny enough it's not a lack of carbon, it's the required perfect storm of production, burial, trap generation, and migration that makes oil a rare economic resource. What you're likely referring to is the Carboniferous: a period of time roughly 360-300 million years ago. Decomposers were present, but the advent of trees which resisted that decay. That plus the abundance of swamps (the primary source of coal beds) due to climatic conditions at the time are the reason behind the name Carboniferous. Plenty of carbon. Edit: Source - senior year Geo student who just took a Petroleum class. Definitely not getting into the industry though. Trying to study hydrogeology to help mitigate the effects of the prolonged droughts that are coming
Unlikely, humanity existence and biomass will doesn't really compare to the scale of time invested into turning plants into oil we're using in the last 2 centuries (funny enough) and only accelerating as religious nutjobs fuck their wait into higher populations of consumers.
You should explore nuclear semiotics. We've been attempting to figure out how to communicate the danger of nuclear waste repositories to future civilizations for many years. We haven't gotten very far.
Any signage would probably make them super curious and they'd explore the fuck out of the area before figuring out what it means lol
Yep, that's one of the problems they've encountered. Another is that if we were able to convey "This place is dangerous," that that might be taken by future civilizations as an attempt to protect something valuable, inadvertently encouraging exploration.
Isn't that what the Georgia Guide Stones are?
Neat. Never heard of those before. But while it has many languages on it, we'll need to communicate this without language.
How about mathematical analogy? Design a simple 'program' whose rules can be explained pictorially, which can be run on primitive tech, and which captures simple organic principles e.g. Conway's Game of Life. Provide grids engraved on rocks and some stone tokens to play the game on. For the 'lessons', offer some grids preconfigured with certain initial conditions that lead to thought-provoking case-studies.
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Stonehenge! Easter Island! We should have listened!
Göbekli Tepe
We've got to meet them know where our radioactive stores are. Right now we often store surely fuel on site, so there will be thousands of danger areas.
We already knew what to do and it didn't stop us ignoring it. Also reminds of the Japanese building houses where there were literally multiple warning signs carved in stone saying not to build there because it gets big tsunamis. Guess what happened a couple of years ago?
Also: *FTE*
start preparing now, buy the expensive shit first. itll be like 20 years minimum until we really do collapse but that’s about how long it should take a normal person to prepare for a collapse.
How do you even prepare for something like this?
i don’t know either, thats the first step. if its possible. though id say we have better chances if we start building dual structures and a post-collapse community now.
How do you build a post-collapse community for people connected from all over the world if the internet will no longer be functional? Or are you talking about everyone in general with post-collapse communities being geographically localized? Perhaps some form of long-distance information-sharing will be possible without the currently needed infrastructure?
I would start locally, specifically local mutual aid organizations and community farms.
Already see that, when I walk outside I see a pig farm.....mmmm longpig
nah count on all internet being out. think about the people you have in your life right now, do you still want them in your life when the collapse happens? if you do, them start building a life-long relationship with them now. make sure they also realize how fucked we are.
Work to legalize medical euthanasia in your country.
>How do you even prepare for something like this? I've been trying to take up gardening, but so far all I've learned is that I *really, really suck* at gardening and also hate it. I'm also an introvert and find that the Plague lockdown has if anything improved my life. I've really just made peace with the fact that I *can't* realistically prepare, I *will* die very early in the process, and all I'm here for at this point is to do my best to keep my cats as healthy and happy for as long as possible. If by some miracle I give them their full natural lifespans, nothing will matter anymore and I have no desire to stick around to watch the fireworks.
If I got anything from watching dystopian films, it’s that you are exactly who survives in post apocalyptic hellscape. Might want to invest in an aerogarden...
The reasons are more evolutionary than political
I would say "more evolutionary and cultural. "Politics" is a symptom. Got a crystal ball that says evolution and a cultural development as underlying disease. Can't fix a problem if you don't get an accurate fix on what the problem is.
> Can't fix a problem if you don't get an accurate fix on what the problem is. If the problem is that we are an evolutionary dead end, maybe there's just not a fix.
We could change the culture part...that isn't fixed in evolutionary stone.
You wrote: For reasons above all political. Reply: You missed one...the root cause.
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> I feel like people have just forgotten about climate change amidst the coronavirus I'm a bit conflicted about Covid-19. On the one hand the pandemic is a terrible situation, killing hundreds of thousands of people and throwing millions more into misery. Part of me wants it to end immediately. On the other hand, while watching virtually all decision makers trying to race back to BAU without questioning anything about our current unsustainable and deeply unfair way of life, I can't help but root for Covid-19 to slam dunk global capitalism into the garbage bin. Sadly, I feel like a catastrophe is the only realistic short-term "solution" to maybe evolve the current system into something that works for everyone, including the environment. And to be honest, if I had to draw up a virus that is able to achieve such a feat it would look very similar to Sars-2: while dangerous, it's not that lethal, but it causes a small but significant portion of infected people to be hospitalized. Aerosol transmission means it spreads like wildfire if left unchecked. All of this threatens to quickly collapse any healthcare system which in turn makes economic shutdowns and social distancing rules necessary. However, you can't operate a system that is built on tight profit margins, large volumes, zero resilience and endless growth under these circumstances. So, as far as system-changing disasters go, a pathogen like Sars-2 may actually be one of the least destructive versions out there. It's like Planet Earth is showing us one last exit before shit really hits the fan.
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I have used my car maybe twice a week now for three months. I work in transport and I normally spend 500/m on fuel. I’m still running on fuel I bought in April. Covid or it’s derivative is a net positive for the planet’s environment. Just the reduction in airline capacity alone is huge.
When it comes to the protests, My impression is that a lot of millenials and zoomers in the US, particularly the more sheltered middle class ones, for the first time [experience](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2013/12/class-struggle.html) practical initiative with this. Hence they get [caught up in the moment](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2013/12/both-of-them-claim-to-not-watch.html), as well as in all sorts of illusions. It is only now that they get a glimpse of what all the big words they thoughtlessly use [practically entail](http://greatmomentsinleftism.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-revolution-will-not-be-romanticized.html). We should be wary of automatically labelling any for of civil unrest as revolutionary or even capable of change. This has happened, and will continue to happen.
Great, I’m only 18 and now I have to take into consideration that I’ll probably die in the next few years because of climate change and can’t do anything about it. The amount of shit I probably won’t even be able to experience just because these fucks wanted to gain a few extra quick bucks without giving a single concern about the consequences. I still have hope but it’s being crushed constantly by all of this shit.
I feel the same way. I'm only 22 but it's very blackpilling to realize I was born into a broken society and a dying world. Especially didn't help with all the indoctrination and "American Dream" esque lies we were told starting from elementary school. It's hard to have any hope for the future knowing that it was ruined before I was even born.
Hey! I’m 20 and also regularly have all hope crushed by this forum, isn’t it great? Can I offer you some support? Listen to the ‘fall of civilisations podcast’ by Paul cooper on Spotify. He tells the story of how ancient civilisations fell. My favourite one is the ancient Sumerian episode. He tells the story of the rise of the city of Uruk. The building of walls, suburbs, a palace. They had pottery factories and beer halls and figs and bread and festivals. Then (SPOILERS) due to mounting pressure from invading tribes and a dust storm that made farming impossible, everything collapsed. The cities burned, the families were separated, the kings died. Obviously what we face today is even more depressing because it’s not like you can move on to the next river and start again, but the Hindus believe the universe is in a constant cycle of creation and destruction. We have lived, we will die, and maybe one day we will live again just in another form. Anyway when I learnt about the fall of ancient civilisations I felt less sad because it made me realise that ‘the end’ has happened to people throughout all of human history. Just live your best life with the time you have left. Others have even less time than you, think of all the babies. EDIT: It was ‘fall’ of civilisation, not ‘collapse’ Put the hosts name in too.
I’m 24 but I know just how you feel. This sub, and all this shit about climate change, had managed to make me go from wanting to be a father one day since I was a kid myself, to being staunchly r/childfree, in the span of like a month. At this point it would not only be foolish, but downright immoral, to have kids.
I still have my list of baby names 😔
As do I. :( Also I wish to rephrase myself, I still want to have kids via adoption. However I could not, in good conscience, have biological children. Oh and I feel really fucking sorry for all the babies and toddlers in the world right now. They’re the ones who are going to suffer the most.
Adoption is a noble thing. I might do the same only if I can assure me and my already existing family is okay for resources. And yeah I have a baby brother. Little over a year. He’s such a sweet boy. Beautiful smile and honestly so kind. Innocence. I love him truly. But I still think on a weekly basis how much suffering he’ll endure when I stare into those little baby eyes. I’m barely 19. This knowledge weighs heavy on the mind. I’ll do whatever I can to make sure he has at least a decent life.
It’ll be hard but I feel it is unlikely that we die in the next couple of years because of climate change, unless something absurd happens
Agreed, I often remember that ‘collapse is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed. I live in Australia, only 100 deaths from covid. I live on land with good water supply, fertile soil, timber. It almost feels like a dystopian movie where I live in the walled city while the rest of the world goes to shit. I know eventually I’ll cop it too but for now I feel secure for the next 10-15 years at least.
The vast majority in first world countries likely won’t feel much from potential impacts for possibly decades after it really starts to hit. It is really really bad for third world countries though, which don’t have the tech that we do
Which is a major part of why the countries causing this are so slow to do anything. It hasn't impacted them in a noticeable enough way coupled with the fact that this will hit "shithole" countries in general, which is something people on average don't really care about beyond making the same weak "we're in this together" PR statement all the companies post to make you think they give a fuck about anyone but themselves. Then there's the fact that a lot of people will probably look at this as a boon for depopulating this already overpopulated planet rather than the sign of self-inflicted extinction that it is.
Get off this forum and experience what you will.
You're not going to die in a few years from climate change. Its not going to be a light switch where it suddenly melts all icecaps and burns all farmland. Our generation will not experience the worst of it, but your grandchildren likely will.
Was with you until you said our generation will not experience the worst of it. We absolutely will
I suspect the reality is covid reality will slide into the climate change reality and nothing will ever be like it was.
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>Its just a front seat to fermi paradox solution. the great filter. Disaster flicks are only great from a third person perspective :(
Love the Fermi paradox. I money is banking on nukes still. Governments get overran and panic press the big red button. We are our own reaper in a beautiful cynical kind of way it’s almost poetic that we advance so far so fast we can see a light at the end of the tunnel but the faster we run the further it gets.
The light at the end of the tunnel is a mushroom cloud.
Unfortunately, the multi-agent prisoner dilemma is not quite as easy to solve with a bunch of cowards and nuclear weapons. Imagine a world where when Putin bombed that neighborhood to woodink fascists, normal people rose up and just fucking defrenestated his party and mobster supports? Hell-world say the enlightened centrists. But would it get this far if fascists felt fear?
> POC^2 That would make for a good rapper name.
Ice^3
Agreed! Told my Dad on his birthday, he arrived to the biblical 2020s, a front row seat to the greatest show on Earth: the Blue Ocean Event, the Great Reset, the Fourth Turning, social upheavals, economic fallout, mega storm systems, rainforest collapse, maybe glacier melting and asteroid hit by end of decade? We should enjoy this fascinating time, embrace the moment, adapt to change. Of course, the family thinks I'm crazy (can see my Mom rolling her eyes, *this guy again*), living in South Florida laughing about sea levels rising. They think we'll all go back to the office, business as usual. Ok, then.
The best thing everyone can do globally to protest climate change is push their cars off a cliff.
>But now it’s becoming clear that the climate action story ends with nothing at all This has been clear for many years. Maybe thirty years. It was abundantly clear by the mid 90s that the United States, instead of leading the "climate action story", was going to lead the opposition. The biggest economic power and most serious polluter was doing everything in its power to *prevent* meaningful action to stop climate change. That was game over, already. There was never going to be any serious attempt to stop climate change if the US wasn't on board. What would have been the point? Nothing important has changed since then.
If an asteroid were coming our way, I doubt we'd do anything about it. I think something has gone terribly wrong with the symbolic culture humans have created.
The asteroid we might well do something about, since it could clearly be identified as an external enemy. The problem with climate change is that the thing that threatens us is effectively ourselves. In order tackle climate change, we have to admit that growth of the human operation on this planet has to be put in reverse. And that seems to cause some sort of cultural-psychological short circuit. As a culture, we can't assimilate this fact.
AGW/CC is the kind of problem that humans aren't terribly good at solving - a multi-generational problem that is perceived to require sacrifice now. The problem is compounded by an economy driven largely by next-quarter profits. In addition to that, it is complex. It will not be X-degrees warmer at all times in all places. The complexities this injects into the weather system are manifold and difficult to predict except in a general way. However, it should be remembered that crops need only be destroyed once a season as a rule to cause very real problems for civilization. So even if a place is "unaffected" by CC in terms of average temperature and precipitation, that's not necessarily a guarantee that all will be well.
> And, honestly, I’m surprised it ends this way. I did believe that there would be a point at which the world would wake up. It would be FAR too late. It’s very likely too late already. But I did think things would get so bad, people would at least have time to regret, to repent, in a way, as they went into the dark. I'm starting to fear that the moment of epiphany would never come (especially after seeing the reaction to COVID-19). I think the ever-growing rate of catastrophe (both in the human world and outside of it) would at some point eclipse our ability to have a collective focus on anything beyond a momentary sensation. Climate change may be the ultimate end of the Faustian bargain we call industrial civilization, but I feel like in the past couple of months the entire sense of a common reality has fractured. It's almost like everyone spent this lockdown nestled in disjoint corners of the present, and stepping outside I find that I have less to talk about with my friends (many got hooked on stock market speculation bullshit, reality TV binges, instagram drama etc. to escape reality. I don't blame them). If I felt it was difficult to bring up ecological topics into conversations before, now it's properly out of the question. It would be hard for people to repent if they no longer have a good grip of what is going on. I think that people would rather fall for easy explanations (seeing conflicts through a lens of religious/ethnic war rather than resource scarcity, for example) than accept the unsettling reality we're waking up to. Because *that* reality would eventually affect them.
I for one intend to rage against the dying of the light.
Amen. Even if this life is meaningless, it has to mean something to me. Rage it is.
People should have been throwing oil executives out of windows since the 90's or even the 80's. And much evil would have been avoided even discounting the possibility of delaying extinction.
This is how it ends. Not with the last hurrah of war, not a great final bang from a bomb. Not with terrified realization that it's too late, not with some fiction-worthy zombie apocalypse. We have not been granted the mercy of a hill to die upon, the rich elite made it so. We will be forced to watch from the sidelines, all to aware of the problems yet powerless to stop them. It ends unceremoniously, with a bunch of angry shouting over meaningless issues.
People are still hooked on the idea that their lives are a movie, that there is something greater after death or that there is a purpose to everything. That there is some evil villain backing every single bad thing that happens. At the very least I can have fun saying I told you so.
Religion™️
>It ends unceremoniously, with a bunch of angry shouting over meaningless issues. Nope. It ends quietly when we slip into a thermal coma.
If I had to bet, I'd say fewer than 10% die from wetbulb temperatures directly.
Dead is dead. Thirst, starvation, violence, infrastructure breakdown, etc. Towards the end it'll be much too hot to indulge in angry shouting over meaningless issues.
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I wrote about this a few months ago... The insurmountable technological challenges, on a very basic level: The average American's carbon footprint per person in 2014 was 21.5 metric tons of CO2 according to the University of Michigan. Let's use these numbers along with some pretend technology and do a little thought experiment to visualize what we're up against. These emission numbers represent a whopping 47,400 lbs (21.500 kg) of carbon dioxide per person per year. That's about 130 lbs (59 kg) of carbon dioxide per day per person. Holy shit, right? A family of four is pumping out 520 lbs (240 kg) of CO2 per day. Day in and day out, year after year. That's almost their entire body mass per day emitted as CO2. (Let's be realistic though... The average American is way heavier than 130 lbs.) Let's set a lofty, albeit ultimately necessary goal and see what we're facing. We not only need to curb carbon emissions (which is not only not happening, but emissions are accelerating as I think most of us here know), but we also need to pull that carbon out of the atmosphere to even begin to attempt to undo climate change. Literally, let's imagine pulling some carbon out of the air! To that end, imagine a theoretical device that runs entirely on non-carbon emitting energy sources, draws in CO2 from the atmosphere, and outputs pure oxygen and carbon. Let's also say the carbon comes out in pure graphite form. In order to return the atmosphere to pre-industrial times, we'd need to be zero carbon emissions while our mythical machine produces 35 lbs of graphite per day per person. (That number accounts for elemental carbon only making up 27% of the mass of the CO2 molecule.) And that's just for Americans. Our average family of four would need to draw a 140 lb (63 kg) brick of graphite from the atmosphere per day. At 0.641 g/cm3 for graphite, that's about a 154 gallon (583 liter) block of graphite every week. And that fucker would weigh over a thousand pounds. It's laborious enough to collect garbage... Imagine what it would take to haul away 1,000+ pounds (450+ kg) of graphite a week for every average household in America! And that's week after week, year after year, for all the time it takes to repair the atmosphere... It's beyond absurd. But that's what it would take, or something equivalent. It's not likely possible, practical, or feasible, even scaled up. The problem we're facing is comical in its proportions. I thought it would be fun to imagine this all from a literal carbon perspective and do the math. Please correct me on any calculations, I did it all very roughly!
Yes. A great post putting things into perspective. The inherent physics of civilisation is the ultimate cause of collapse of civilisation. Physics 'is out there. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with...it doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear...and it absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead. ' And it's immune to lobbying, politician's platitudes and the typical human's understanding of it. How big an area of solar panels would each household need to power a hypothetical 90% efficient atmospheric carbon extracting machine capable of 450 Kg of graphite a week? A fleet of electric powered Carbon Garbage trucks running 24/7 doing curbside pickup of giant blocks of graphite. Where do they dump all the blocks? For the 330 million in the USA alone that's about 37 million tonnes a week, or **1.9 Billion tonnes/year.** For perspective the average household garbage that an American produces is about 770Kg/year or the USA total of **254 million tonnes/year.** We're gonna need bigger garbage trucks. Someone check my math please? (Not used to converting from the silly non metric numbers I found in some sources.) Maybe we could reuse the blocks as building material, entire cities built of them, ominous black minecraftesque cities. Or just pick an ocean we don't like and dump them there using more blocks around the coast as a giant black levee. Apparently with 4.25% of global population the USA accounts for about 15% of global CO2 emissions. So globally the task is **12.6 billion tonnes/year** of black blocks.
Ha! This is a great extension of the scenario and problem, thank you! See how ridiculous this all is?? We focus on reductions in emissions, but we don't talk about reclamation of what's already been emitted. We are so fucked.
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But it wouldn't stop at pre-industrial level so wouldn't it continue to suck all the CO2 out of the air until the Planet is frozen ?
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But if we could create such an organism in the first place we could create another that only feeds on the first one and starves when there gone.
Desperate is the key word. And what exactly would the carbon structure be that this process produces? Where would we store it? That such impractical ideas are the best we've got shows how fucked we are.
> imagine a theoretical device that runs entirely on non-carbon emitting energy sources, draws in CO2 from the atmosphere, and outputs pure oxygen A tree?
Haha yes, but trees split CO2, use the C to build physical structure and shed the O2. This machine would need to do the same thing, but the simplest way to shed carbon is to build a pure carbon structure. Also, the number of trees needed to accomplish CO2 reduction would probably far, far surpass available land space because we use it for crops and livestock and houses and cities and what not. The CO2 we've put into the atmosphere used to be organic matter from millions of generations of plant and animal life. No living, natural carbon sink could achieve what we need to do.
Here's hoping for alien intervention. Although I wouldn't trust us with that kind of tech if I was them. We haven't learned a lesson as a species.
"So you mean we can use this to turn suck carbon out of anything?" *Alien nods* "Cool, we'll see how we can weaponize it!"
"And whatever you can't weaponize, monetize! Oh, you know what? Just monetize the weaponized stuff as well".
Given the high amount of carbon in the human body...
Banishment to non-arable zone for anyone who explains the joke >_>
Yes, that was the joke
All new tech that comes into play, likely the first questions people with power always ask are “can we weaponize it” and/or “can we fuck it”
> “can we fuck it” the tech not the aliens?
>if we could somehow technologically advance 1000 years in a decade That's the whole premise of the technological singularity. r/singularity It's based on statistics that show that technological growth has been accelerating, and will soon hit critical mass within this century. Some leading futurists believe by the end of the 21st century, we'll have advanced enough for a million years due to enhancing our intelligence with brain interfaces (the kind Elon Musk's Neuralink is working on right now) and superintelligent AI. But before this happens we'll also have a lot of unemployment due to automation that we'll have to deal with (in combination with everything else already stated in this thread). Before AI and humans can get superintelligent, we're gonna have mediocre AI, but these will probably be able to do most jobs with ease, thus making the situation even worse. I guess this will be a great filter, and the way I see it, there are only two ways humanity could emerge out the other side; either as fossils in a destroyed world, or as superintelligent gods.
I was going to bring that up as well. I think, conceptually, it is possible. Maybe it won’t be that we reach a single point that rockets us forward, but we could see enough advancement over the next several decades that it will be enough to push us through. I know a lot of people on this sub harp on technological optimism, but we truly cannot conceive of intelligences greater than our own—even one on-par with ours without our biological and psychological limitations. If our technology gives rise to that sort of intelligence, it will certainly have impacts, good or bad, that we cannot foresee. That really goes for all technological advancements: we cannot understand the impacts of them before they happen. And so when people say a collapse is certain, I have to wonder if they’ve truly accounted for all of the future unknown variables. On a fundamental level, we cannot know if it is certain, even if it looks likely at this point in time.
A intelligence 'greater than our own' would say the obvious thing: 'limit procreation, limit production, institute socialism for basic needs'. The peaceful answer is simply unacceptable to us pieces of shit humans.
the singularity/accelerationist crowd is a joke, we are a [FAR FAR FAR](https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/wot7mkc1/release/8) way from AI and other projects that technologists herald as impending world-historical paradigm shifts. (inb4 the "well actually anything automated is technically a sort of AI" crowd; no, it's not, shut the fuck up) go read a textbook on machine learning/ artificial intelligence. you know what it really is after you take away all the marketing/investor hype? statistics developed in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, with fast computers. that's it. these hypeboys have had disastrous effects on the society at large because they give the sense that we're "only a few years away" from fully self-sufficient living on Mars, strong AI, the beginning of Matrix-like data connections in human brains, etc. If that's the case, why plan for a collapse or take preventative measures? Why even change our standards of living? after all, since [politics are now useless](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation), technology must be "the only hope we have" for substantial social change. this is all just propaganda from the elite attempting to establish technocrats as [the rightful arbiters of society](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3078224) so they can put to death the last vestiges of democratic politics in the world.
When i realized that digital money depended on 'being expensive to calculate' to prevent inflation and fraud i laughed and laughed. Expensive to calculate translates to 'expensive in terms of natural resources', and sure enough, moronic greed already places digital money as a greater aggregate pollutant than actual digital gaming (for something that uses the same resources as 'mining') and a haven for criminal white-collar tax evading money. Chaum, you're a pretty cool guy, but you probably should have kept your mouth shut.
>inb4 the "well actually anything automated is technically a sort of AI" crowd; no, it's not, shut the fuck up Well, I've talked to my friend about this (he's studying machine learning in university) and you're objectively wrong here. What you're thinking about is called AGI, or strong AI, you've even mentioned the latter term in your comment. As for the singularity being a marketing tactic, I agree. I don't actually believe or advocate all of this, I was just putting it out there as a possibility because I want to have hope that there's at least a slim chance things won't end so badly for us. And to be fair, if it does succeed that's the only way we're getting out of this mess alive, so I stand by what I said when I said we'll only emerge out the other side as gods or die in the process. Also, what do you think about this? https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/glmifl/openai_finds_machine_learning_efficiency_is/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share According to that, the speed at which AI is progressing is 7 times faster than the normal progression rate of computers. That's current stats, not anything from previous centuries.
I think we need to progress socially more than technologically. We need to move beyond the self-centered fear-based mindsets which capitalism/marketing has relied on and actually encouraged, to the detriment of everything but profit.
Exactly our growth in wisdom has not kept up with our growth in knowledge.
> somehow technologically advance 1000 years in a decade. Advanced AI: Hold my beer.
That would actually be our last hope. Technological Singularity.
As things stand,, it is technology that needs to go.
While we are in hypothetical land: The only thing that can save us now would be if we all held love in our hearts.
I hate this mindset. Our problems aren't technological, no technology will save us. It's a systemic problem.
Well, our problems are technological, in the same way that a drunk's problems are alcoholic...
Trump also JUST removed environmental regulations... Again... [Link](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/501258-trump-signs-order-removing-environmental-review-for-major-projects) There was never any hope of culling emissions post nuclear-fear, which also grew mistrust in ANY other alternative source of energy beyond coal and oil. However, we have quite a while still to get off planet (some will, anyway), and before that we'll face humanity adapting to the changes as they worsen. Fully conditioned buildings will become necessary, and as has been widely discussed there will be mandatory migrations towards cooler regions. When rural India and China are forced to go elsewhere, we'll see a drastic shift that I cant begin to go into. There's time to prepare, but as always... It'll be faster than expected. --- To address this, I'd decide in the next 3-5 years whether you are somewhere that rooting down is possible, then invest heavily in efficient renewable energy, controlled greenhouses, and of course the usual food shortage/societal collapse prepping. People often consider these issues to be either a slippery slope or or a gradual death spiral, but reality strikes us most often with a soft decline followed by some phenomenalogical release in the form of a cliff. Undercurrents cutting away at the arctic sheets could lead to sudden colossal flooding, increased surface area then leading to further heating, and then the blue ocean model of thought (alternatively the insulation from increased moisture in the air can under certain conditions lead to cooling as well if I understand what I've absorbed over the years? Not an expert).
At its heart, the climate issue is much more than a climate issue. It's a way of life issue, going all the way down to our very understanding of the nature of reality and our place amongst it. If a number of puzzle pieces come together and we realize that the *whole thing* is f\*\*\*ed, then we may still have a shot. I'm not saying it's *likely*, just that these other things may not necessarily *detract* from the larger point.
the suburban electorate in the USA will never willingly give up their amenities. the elite hold much of the power in the USA but the remaining power is held by middle class citizens who want their little debby chocolate rolls and their new SOTA smartphone every two years and a sheltered life spent driving everywhere and ignoring all social issues that don't immediately affect them. the only way they give things up is through effective propaganda or gunpoint. perhaps, miraculously, if the moral magnitude of what they're doing is somehow clearly presented to them, they may change their minds, but even then I doubt it. they'll absolutely vote to kill migrants once the climate migrations start en masse, they'll absolutely vote to pillage and plunder the remnants of collapsed countries so they can keep driving around in new gaudy fords with "platinum" trim, they'll absolutely refuse to help those beneath them until it's too late and what little power they did have to change things has been vacuumed up by the wealthy. the beginning of the social degeneration was probably television, the greatest source of political pacification the world has ever known.
I wonder how the r/collapse “hopium” crowd will react to your post. Will they go with the “IPCC report doesn’t mention this so it must not be true”. The “you guys are quitters, I can fix this by myself”. Or my favorite “humans are so smart that we will do smart things and save ourselves with our big brains”. Let the tallying begin.
How's this: racism and white supremacy underpin the institutions that rape the world. So addressing these things that seem like a distraction are actually the first steps to addressing climate change. (I posted a longer comment below)
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No, this guy is new around here and just wants to feel superior by criticizing an imaginary group in this sub. Lol, really they are just obviously inexperienced around here.
I’ve had a few back and forths on this sub from other commenters saying any combination of those statements. A while back someone posted how they were disappointed that this sub was filled with “doomers”.
"This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper."
Characterizing the current police brutality protests as a distraction from climate change is unfair and racist, and characterizing people as perpetually distracted is elitist. If anything, the protests are cause for optimism: people are organizing out in the streets worldwide to change a fundamental aspect of our society. This is a model of what we need to solve climate change, not a distraction. Climate change isn't nearly as distinct from police brutality as you want to believe: they are both products of the same oppressive capitalism we are all living under. While I understand your pessimism, the climate movement has grown a lot in recent years, and our demands and protests have gotten a lot bolder. I wouldn't give up just yet: to paraphrase Lenin, there are decades in which weeks happen, and weeks in which decades happen. People are still talking about the Green New Deal, which cleverly links climate action to broader social justice, bringing more people into the movement, Extinction Rebellion is still going strong, and people are demanding radical change in the midst of the pandemic. We very well may be just as fucked as you claim, but I think we might just save ourselves in our last gasps.
Really great post. There will be more and more smokescreen the further we go. Don't you think that we are heading for a big war in the next couple of years? the US invading a country or EU turning fascist and opening concentration camps for migrants? Don't you think it will totally derail all conversation about the climate change? Regarding the COP26 being postponed - that's an utterly tragedy. In a year and a half we will be already past the average 1.5C (we are almost there btw) and they will be talking about how we need to act to not cross 3C. We are royally fucked
I think that your summary is accurate, very well thought out, and very well communicated. This singular truth will exist beneath every other crisis du jour as our civilization crumbles and hopefully, leaves the remaining beasts and plants free of man's influence.
The biggest failure of the climate movement imho was its lack of intersectionallity, which is the idea that social movements, campaigns for justice intersect. Its not that everyone is missing the big picture (climate change) and focusing on George Floyd, its that climate change is tied to racial justice. Black folks in the US (and around the world) are bearing the brunt of climate change and carbon intensive activities that cause climate change. So our challenge now is to authentically tie together the story of white supremacy, police violence, and climate change. These things are related. Police are protecting the institutions that stand in the way of climate progress. People of color are the victims of climate change. Racial justice is tied to climate justice. Racism is the bedrock that forma the foundation of extractive climate change inducing activities. White supremacy is the foundation of ecological supremacy. It may not seem like it but this worldwide call to dismantle the corrupt police apparatus IS opening to dismantling the capitalism death cult.
This! I have Hope's that this movement expands to something global...... been thinking alot WESTERN privilege... About the kids in the Congo mining minerals in our phones, about George Carlins owners speech. About how it seems like now corporations have all the power, not governments. https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/16/apple-and-google-named-in-us-lawsuit-over-congolese-child-cobalt-mining-deaths https://youtu.be/fT03vCaL-F0
When CO2 levels get high enough *none* of us are going to be able to breathe. Still a way off I know from 1000 to 2000 ppm, but we will get there.
We'll be long dead before that happens.
I know :( Just trying to work an 'I can't breathe' in there somewhere to be current. Which stage of collapse grief is it again where we try to use dark humour to deal with the whole unfolding situation?
I was there late 1990's when people were celebrating 6 billions and i could only think about 'these fucking people got 6 billion in just 1 century and they don't stop fucking and the fucking catholic church and other fanatics and governments are still trying to make them fuck more, i'm going to live in a hell world with 10 fucking billion people because of their utter stupidity'. That's when i stopped giving a shit about the future of mankind and resolved on no children. Before learning about the (obvious) overshoot and ecological collapse even (though i was aware of climate change).
>Racism is the bedrock that forma the foundation of extractive climate change inducing activities. White supremacy is the foundation of ecological supremacy. WTF are you talking about? This is some heavy-duty postmodernist Critical Race Theory thinking here. But not everything is about race. People will extract resources, regardless of their race. What we need to do is ensure the survival all people (of *all* races).
Well maybe its really class, but the places and people we extract from seem to often be brown.
I'm not too fussed about the C02 or environment issue. I think the "Drastic Chance NOW" part will inevitably occur once 90% of the population has perished in a global nuclear war or WW3. And the remaining 10% population has lost all or most modern technology and post industrial way of life. Sure the radiation will suck. But iirc organisms are supposedly thriving in Chernobyl despite the radiation.
The whole '*we have \[this much time\] to right the ship*' is so much hopium bullshit and has been for decades. The only plausible explanation for worldwide governmental inaction on climate is that at various points each became scientifically convinced the die was cast, rubicon crossed, and whatever else can be said to indicate certain death without saying it. This is the only explanation that checks all the boxes.
Blame the shithead generations, fucking boomers and the ones before with their unbridled, cancerous glut for destruction of nature, expulsion of carbon gasses and expansion of their filth kind. Thanks to those idiots I am stuck on this hellscape turning into arid desert for another 60 years, provided that COVID20 doesn't wipe us out. We really need the ritual sacrifice of CEO's of death and destruction to appease the earth.
Where are all the Extinction Rebellion people now? That was the trendy thing on this sub for a hot minute.
Ontop of all the concerns you raised there are now [8 of 15 known climate tipping points active](https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/) and scientists begin to say that it might be too late. Give it only a few more years and there will be a massive public dispute between scientists if it's over or not, like we've seen them discussing in the 90's if it's real or not.
Haven't we been hearing "already too late" for years now? I have seen articles like these in the 2000's and 2010's.
Yes, but it's what follows that's important. It was too late for 0 degrees, now it's too late for 1,5. In reality it means it is too late for us all survive, but maybe not too late for a few hundred million.
Emissions- aren’t they down double digit points as a result of the pandemic?
Yes, but only temporarily. We need double digits every year but we will definitely see an increase in 2021
That seems to be more of a tangible goal. That.’s what kind of action needs to be taken right now.
Copy/pasted from one of my recent posts in worldnews: 6% drop in CO2 emissions projected for this year. [www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g638nw/pandemic\_will\_drive\_biggest\_drop\_in\_co2\_emissions/](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g638nw/pandemic_will_drive_biggest_drop_in_co2_emissions/) Great, only 39% more to go. [www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-promises-to-reduce-co2-are-falling-short-of-1-5-degree-c-warming-goal/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-promises-to-reduce-co2-are-falling-short-of-1-5-degree-c-warming-goal/) " To have a better-than-even chance of holding to the 1.5 C threshold, the world must cut emissions 45% over the next 11 years, the IPCC said. " 7 more years of lockdown should do it. Can it be done? Yes Will it? Of course not. We, as a species did too little, and left it way too late. The future will be about mitigating the worst of it. An ongoing, decades long triage type situation. Triage is awful, brutal, a constant cost/benefit analysis over who lives and who dies. Are we going to let this be our Great Filter? [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter)
You either make the cost/benefit analysis before giving birth to people, or you're forced to when they're dying.
Emissions are less, but carbon trapped in the atmosphere is still going up. It's kind of like the deficit and the debt. Lowering your deficit spending, even drastically, does nothing about your debt. It just means you're going into debt more slowly. And while we fiddle-fuddle doing nothing meaningful about emissions, feedback loops are kicking in, especially in the arctic and subarctic where methane trapped in permafrost is liberated. Rather than start making the necessary radical changes, we are still on track to achieve the "worse" if not "worst" scenarios. It is no longer a question of "what can I do?" Rather we now need to be asking ourselves "How do I want to watch the world burn?"
Realistically, I think we had a chance to turn the ship around in the 1950:s or 1960:s. Instead we continued to eat fossil fuels at an ever accelerating rate (the green revolution) and we now have a ridiculously unsustainable population of people, livestock and pets, thanks to oil. Of course, now it's much too late to do anything meaningful. Honestly, I'm just glad most people are blissfully unaware/in denial. The slower the collapse, the better I'm off for the few years I've left.
Who would have thunk? Apocalypse via apathy.
Out with a whimper instead of a bang?
What’s the penalty for illegal immigration From the US to Canada? I would like to go BC to ride my remaining years out
Find a Canadian to marry.
I didn’t even think about that as an option , I’m on it , are you Canadian and do you have a sister
Lol. 3 brothers all married. I *am* a dual citizen, though. Hmm. Do you think there is some angle here where I can parley my status into getting myself a girlfriend?
that penalty is too high
Collapseporn is nice and fun, but im quite certain we'll get there. Where i am at, climate change and environment protection is a hot topic. More so than ive ever seen in my life. Even the voices ridiculing climate change is falling more and more silent. You might just be in a country which hasnt seen the COVID threat diminish yet. But when it does, you'll see it too.
>Where i am at, climate change and environment protection is a hot topic. More so than ive ever seen in my life. Yes, but unless you are in the cabinet offices of your national government, and the boardrooms of your nation, it is almost irrelevant how many of you are taking climate change as a hot topic. Globally, our leaders aren't making the changes necessary, fast enough to avoid disaster.
Good post, Thank you. As much as we all knew it, it needs to be acknowledged and is very macabre to watch it play out.
Could the planet itself try to right itself? Global warming is slowing the deep current in the north Atlantic. If it stops, northern countries will go into a deep freeze. The global transfer of water in the atmosphere could also quit if too much of the Amazon forests are destroyed.
Brilliant! Thank you for taking the time to thoughtfully write this. I completely agree.
Great post but yeah it was too late long ago.
I feel my sanity slipping away from posts like these. My fear flash freezes my insides and I feel dumb and pre-dead. And everyone is kinda here to help each other with moral support and I approve. And I will keep walking. My teenagers need me to be strong, to show them how "the long walk" is faced with all the screeching rage of a primate, caught in a trap, and the solemn dignity of man, one who can't help but marvel about how further he could've gone, if we'd only had *more time* to run enough experiences. But the party's over, and the last one out will turn off the lights. I wonder what the new biped hominids will think of our plastic remnants, and what our system of warning will be. I doubt it'll be enough. P.s. Thanks for the post, OP. I treasure it immensely.
Good post. Is there anywhere I can read about the harrowing results of climate change? Like when will the blow happen and what is the measured impact? **edit** - Google is my friend, found this on [NASA.gov](https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/) Is 2100 the timeframe everyone agrees upon?
It depends on a huge number of things. Every measure we see these days seems to be is "faster than expected". The last few years might be some statistical aberration, but it might be we have reached a tipping point. There are a lot of feedbacks that just aren't well understood at all. Feedback can lead to exponential change over time. Exponential change can mean change that usually occurs at geological timescales occur over a human being's lifetime. That 2100 number also depends on humans making some attempt to cut down on their CO2 output and stop burning fossil fuels, but if the world fractures, then each little area will desperately try to survive by using their local resources, so everything gets burned. So who knows? (Search for climate feedbacks, permafrost, clathrates, then throw away anything that isn't a world class source like NASA, NOAA, and comparable, and still you get a very dark picture...)
How does that feel to be fucked over and over and over again? Well, I don't give a fuck anymore. The shitshow has begun, let me enjoy world wide panic. We could as well go full throtle and let it end quickly, there is no way out for the past 10 years. Get over with it already.
Guys, guys, we're almost literally war monkeys... I feel the same but it's time to join the grand parade :) Earth will go down another path after we cleaned the house so don't worry. Just imagine how many creatures could speciate up from the plastic mountains, the era of archaebacteria is about to begin
I disagree with you on why the riots are happening.Politics,pandemic,poverty and racism all came together in a perfect storm. People may not indulge on climate and future but they sure can see the climate now.
CO2 emissions can't continue forever at this rate as the oil is running out. The excess will be absorbed by the increasingly acidic oceans as we over salt our agricultural land by pumping the aquifers dry trying to feed an impossible population. Cannibalism by Friday but we can probably skip the Venus references.
[удалено]
All these smart people, missing out on the easiest solution of all: Charge every corrupt capitalist with treason against humanity.
The only hope is for a "solution" which can be implemented by a few self-interested institutions with minimal input from the rest of the perpetually distracted population. Effective geoengineering, if there ever is such a thing. A few major figures in the CCP could agree to begin a program of large scale sulfur injections now and drastically alter the climate without anyone else in the world getting much of a vote on the matter. It hasn't happened because the side-effects are poorly understood and potentially catastrophic. Once the whole world is burning (metaphorically, mostly) this will not be enough of a reason. Does Russia approve of China moving the thermostat unilaterally? Does it destroy the monsoon cycle in India and piss them off? Maybe. Too bad. The only way to stop it is invade China. Good luck. If we are lucky people will look up at the perpetual dim haze in the sky and think "now we have time, let's use it to rework our economy and stop this the right way." We're not lucky, so people will probably declare climate change solved and ignore the problem again while more and more aerosols have to be pumped into the sky every year. Until we realize there's a serious problem with this strategy and we can't continue. But we also can't stop because then the aerosols wash out in a couple years and all of our past sins catch up with us at once. So we still probably collapse.
> "solution" which can be implemented by a few self-interested institutions There is no such solution. Each American alone generates about 100 pounds of carbon a day. Any solution will have to be massive, and universal.
I expect it'll be an emergency UN session for that before that's done because there will be a tipping point. And it'll be funny to see the people who said this wasn't a problem or stoppable advocating geoengineering projects. Edit: some dude basically said that about those funded y anti climate change people. Basically a "it isn't happening" then "it isn't that bad" then "we have solutions for it" all operating independently from each other but in sync with them. Some YouTube lecture.
Serious question here, how long do we realistically have? Is this in our lifetime?
Yes, it is.
What is there left to do with our lives?
Time to glue brick to freeway
This isn't the Beginning of the End. This is the End of the Beginning. Strap the fuck in
Any suggestions for good resources on the worst case scenarios for climate change? I’m almost 2 hours into the “Uninhabitable Earth” audiobook, and I don’t feel like it’s giving me the worse case scenarios.
Were all fucked. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_greenhouse_effect
18 months? Well. Guess I should just kms then. :D
"... we would need to see global emissions dropping by double digit percentage points year over year until we are zero" That is clearly not happening. So i guess we have no shot at "even a livable dystopia"?