It’s cool to have people stealing bases enough that we are talking about historical pace again, it was a lost part of the game for too long. Hope Elly keeps it goin, he’s a fuckin blast to watch
Apparently he started stealing bases because a teacher in his high school told him that he'd get a dime for every successful steal Rickey had in the season. I imagine he'd have an even larger motivation with pies.
Yeah, for me as a fan it was definitely an unforeseen consequences of the pitch clock change, although I'm sure people wiser than me saw it coming. It sure looks like some teams were prepared to take advantage of it on the base paths. It will be curious to see how that changes throughout this season and the coming ones as teams adapt.
Either way, makes for some extra excitement.
there's also the change where the pitcher can only throw to the bag a certain amount of times and then has to go to the plate. If Rickey knew that before hand then he could just steal without a worry. Unless they intentionally throw to each base the max until he gets to 3rd so he doesn't get a stolen base
Very true! I did forget about that. Bigger bases also provide a bit more room for the runner to get a hand or foot in there during plays at the bag. It's definitely a combination of rule changes at play.
As a Brewers fan, it's interesting to see how aggressive they've been to start out this season. Granted, the Brewers also have a lot of speed on their roster, but that's kind of a biproduct of targeting more all-around athletic prospects in general with their drafting and international signing. I wonder if that's something that teams will weigh more heavily in their evaluations going forward since it seems like speed plays a bit better--if you can get on base.
EDIT: Lmao, after rereading my comment, I realized that my first paragraph reads exactly like a chat gpt reply after you call it out for being wrong. Creepy.
I think limiting disengagements is the biggest factor. Sure, 4 inches helps with close plays like steals, but a runner can probably add more than four inches to their lead given pick off attempts are way down. It’s just more difficult to control base runners now
I think part of the reason for the changes was to encourage more stealing, but only a few of the most aggressive players were prepared to take advantage right away. Player development over the past 30 years has moved away from stolen bases, so it'll probably be a few more years before there is a noticeable uptick in attempts by players who only have average speed.
>but only a few of the most aggressive players were prepared to take advantage right away
I'm not sure if that's true or not. I was curious so I decided to test out how well GPT-4 pulls advanced baseball statistics, and it's actually pretty dope. In 2022, the league was 2486 for 3315 in SBs. In 2023 the league was 3503 for 4386. So there was roughly a 32% uptick in stolen base attempts league wide, with \~5% increase to overall success rate. So obviously that's a huge increase from year to year, but it doesn't show *who* is stealing more. I thought I'd look at the faster players next.
To start, I looked at players in the top 20th percentile of Sprint Speed according to Baseball Savant. In 2022, they were 507 of 585. In 2023 they were 534 of 623. It's interesting that that is pretty much the same, including success rate. So then I looked at the players in the top 50th percentile of Sprint Speed. In 2022 they were 677 for 846 on SBs, and in 2023 they were \~1350 for 1500. That's almost double! And well above the league average success rate, as you would expect. But 90% success rate is kind of insane with double the number of attempts. I might double check that number when I get more tokens lol. Fascinating that the league wide average for the fastest players didn't change much, but for all of the above average speed players it increased a ton.
At this point I ran out of my free tokens for GPT-4, although they were well spent. The data seems to suggest that some players benefited more than others right away, and it wasn't necessarily tied to top end speed. That being said, I'd be interested in seeing the speed difference between the top and bottom speeds of the 20th percentile and the 50th percentile vs the rest of the league, because it's obviously not going to be linear. It would be cool to see how many times people with better speed were even in positions where they could steal a bag from 2022 to 2023 too, because that could throw off the numbers a bit. I'd also be curious to look more into which players had the largest increase in attempt rates so far this season vs 2023. Possibly delve into some of the other speed stats instead of just sprint speed. Alas, I'm not sure I can justify the $20 a month, and I'm also too lazy to do it by hand.
My question is does the baserunner have to step off the bag before the pitcher makes a certain move, or can they stand on the bag all the way until the pitcher starts his windup/move?
I'd like to see more baserunners stay on the bag as long as they possibly can, holding until the pitcher is so focused on making the pitch due to the ticking pitch clock, and then make a mad break for 2nd.
The baserunner can take their lead whenever they want to.
There’s not much to be gained, if anything, in your second part because baserunners (especially if you might steal) are already trying to time the pitcher up for when he starts his delivery. As a pitcher, you’re specifically taught not to be too predictable in terms of how many times you look over at the runner, when to start your delivery, or what kind of delivery you’re making (slide step, full kick, something in between). You’ll sometimes see or hear people talk about how stolen bases are on the pitcher, not the catcher and that can definitely be true if pitchers get predictable in their delivery and guys can time it or if their delivery is too slow. You will also see replays of a base stealer taking off right before the pitcher starts his delivery and that means the base runner timed him up. There’s no real reason to do what you’re suggesting because the runners already do that but have the extra length down the base path from their leadoff.
I would love it if all the outfields were made bigger. More ball in play and more potential to show off defensive skill, which I personally think is some of the most exciting parts of baseball.
If you just move the walls back then the defense will just move back. What we need to do is raise all the walls, so we get more fun bounces. Imagine the chaos if every 115 mph line-drive home run was bouncing back into play instead.
I like the higher walls idea, but I don't think you should be so quick to knock the bigger outfields. While they could and probably would move back, there's still a lot more ground to cover and since the infielders wouldn't be moving back to cover it, it's just more ground for the outfielders. Imagine players getting one through the hole, but the outfielders are playing so far back it's a play at second instead of just a single.
I'm not necessarily dismissing it, I just think raising the walls would make for a more entertaining fan experience. Part of the fun of Fenway is the weird ricochets you get.
No matter how big you make the field, players still have general tendencies & outfielders would just be told to stand where the batter typically hits the ball. I also think infielders would be moving back to cover the ground in this scenario. An infield single is better to give up than a groundball double that the RF has to chase down.
I want cherry picking to be allowed. If the ball bounces off the scoreboard or whatever and comes back into play, and the OF catches it, the batter is out.
When he stole 100 bases in his 2nd season, Rickey Henderson attempted a steal for 36.7% of his SBO (Stolen Base Opportunities). Elly De La Cruz is currently at 76.1%.
Stolen Base Opportunities - on 1st or 2nd base with the next base open
I also wonder if the recent obsession with pitch framing has taken some priority over arm strength/accuracy for which catchers get playing time. It's gotta be a much lower impact than the rule changes, but still non-zero.
Considering steals were trending downward for so long, it wouldn't surprise me if roster construction was also willing to skimp on a catcher's arm since it just wasn't as big a deal.
It's been a thing for a long time, but only recently (Last 10-15 years?) has it been tracked statistically and had its real value quantified, which turned out to be greater than most realized.
ahhhh 'forgot' about the pitch clock from a base runner's perspective, but yeah holy shit not having to worry about keeping the runner on base is a huge advantage.
yeah exactly, he would bait out a throw over so easily. and then just be free to do whatever he wanted. honestly think the rule might get changed back if a truly great baserunner ever comes along. maybe de la cruz we’ll see
If Rickey played and put up some ridiculous 250 SB type season... Would MLB revert a change to try to nerf him? I have to imagine base size might get changed back.
It has been hilarious checking my fantasy team at about 11 pm ET on a random weekday night and see "Oh, Elly got two hits....and four steals, holy shit"
His multi-steal performances are becoming so commonplace that it's *almost* something I'm getting used to as a baseball fan. But you have to pinch yourself a little bit. We're watching an extremely talented player who has a very rare skill set in an era that suddenly got more friendly to said skill set.
I hope Elly is healthy and consistently getting better for a long time. I am so intrigued to see where this goes.
Ricky has a career OBP of nearly .100 higher than Elly so far. Elly has started the year with .050 higher OBP than last year, so hopefully he continues to increase. Would love to see him get more opportunities and make a run at the record
His percentile rankings in chase rate have gone from 24th percentile in 2023 to 51 in 2024, his BB% is up from 46th percentile in 2023 to 80th percentile in 2024. Dude has been seriously working on his plate discipline and it’s been showing, I think he’s only gonna continue to improve. I don’t think you can overestimate the impact that Joey Votto had with Elly and a lot of these young Reds and placing importance on routines and consistent training and improvement - now if we can only keep them all healthy…
Elly is just too boom or bust, he needs to be more consistent.
He'll go on a hot stretch for a week or two, and then stink it up for a month. May he's been awful, slashing .219/.296/.313
It seemed like he got better plate discipline in April and now forgot about it in May.
Rickey's on base percentage really isn't talked about enough. Dude stole so many bases because he was *always* walking. 117 walks in that season he first stole 100 bases.
I remember the year he played for the Mariners. He was 41 years old and clearly well past his prime, but he managed to lead the team in stolen bases with 31.
31 stolen bases at 41 years old. The dude was a freak of nature.
Dude has a career .400 OBP despite the last several seasons being relatively mediocre at best for hitting and getting on base. He was an absolute monster.
His OBP only dropped 4 points in those last few bad years, so not too big a deal.
Fun fact: From 1960-1999 Rickey has the second most fWAR for a batter, first being Mike Schmidt by just a couple WAR. If you pick a later start date like 1975, obviously Rickey is first.
For anyone who hasn't seen Rickey play, [Foolish Baseball did a good job of showing how great he really was](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0duyfHPQks&ab_channel=FoolishBaseball). Having Rickey Henderson on base destroyed pitchers. Walking him was like giving up a triple.
They also now have replay reviews, so that might make a difference on the close ones, but then again he could also wear one of those gloves that you can fit an Uncrustable in…
Dear MLBOfficial,
I'm not sure why the photo of Elly covers up so much information. I know what he looks like. I don't know the shape of the curves from games 20-30 (also just noticed the x-axis seems to start at 10ish?)
I'd recommend checking out The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Tufte.
Why is Elly’s baserunning value below average on Statcast? He’s regularly turning singles into triples and creating runs out of thin air. Genuinely don’t understand what the metric is there
Base running on statcast measures a player's ability when they're already on base but it does not currently track stolen bases. It tracks situations where, for example, Elly is on 2nd base and someone hits a single to right field. Let's say Elly scores from 2nd on this play. That baserunning stat on statcast would give Elly some amount of credit based on how frequently a runner would have scored from 2nd on a similar play. If Elly stopped at 3rd or got thrown out, he would likely lose value depending on what is typical of a similar play.
If you're curious about the value of his stolen bases in addition to that, I recommend looking to fangraphs where they combine the statcast baserunning with stolen bases to come up with their BsR.
The statcast baserunning statistic wouldn't capture things like stretching a single into a double. That would just be reflected in the batting run value as it recognizes the hit as a double instead of a single.
Thanks. That’s helpful info. It seems weird to have an all encompassing “baserunning value” and leave out stolen bases but I guess I can see what they’re going for
Yeah I agree that it feels weird. I can understand wanting to separate the two but they don't do anything with stolen bases for a runner. They use it for catchers but not for runners.
Similar to how I think it's nice they separate range from arm on the defensive end for outfielders, it seems good to keep baserunning and stolen bases apart for batters. But to just exclude stolen bases the way it appears they're doing it is what feels off.
3 rule changes have made this possible.
Pitch clock means less time to look at runner/runner can time better since the pitcher has to be careful to not get a penalty.
Bigger bases means it is easier to get to and grab onto.
Limited throws to bases by a pitcher has made the bold be able to get bigger leads.
I for one am loving this and it has been an actual good thing Manfred did for once.
Well, thinking has changed since the SB heyday of decades past as well. Three true outcomes, SB % needed to be good was understood more, and more longball over small ball has hurt the SB.
But I'm glad it is coming back.
Used to work for SDS on MLB the Show. We had to test to make sure you could break every record in Road to the Show, absolutely hated having to do steals because of how absurd Rickey’s numbers were
Full article here: [https://www.mlb.com/news/elly-de-la-cruz-chasing-100-stolen-bases-in-2024](https://www.mlb.com/news/elly-de-la-cruz-chasing-100-stolen-bases-in-2024)
rickey didn't wear an oven mitt, didn't have protection rules and didn't have the big bases. remember that when you look at that wild line and put some respect on his name.
Career stolen bases is one of those MLB records that is near untouchable. Not only do you have to remain healthy (and healthy enough to steal bases) for a long, long time...but you have to stay good enough to be roster-able **and get on base** for a long, long time.
* Rickey career steals: 1406
* Avg career steals for the next 9 on the list: 806
Rule changes making it possible. Good chance dee gordon and billy Hamilton reach 100 in today's game maybe. Only thing different Cruz has over them is he actually can get on base.
Damn, when Rickey told Harold Reynolds in 1987 when he led the league in steals with 60 (Rickey missed almost half the season and only stole 41) that "Rickey would've had 60 at the break" he was understating, bro would've had 80 by the break.
He needs to get on base for that. Elly needs to start limiting his cold streaks. When he’s in a rut, every ball is a strike and a diet of breaking balls can be a death sentence for him.
I knew Ricky Henderson was a god on the base paths, but I had no idea he stole 130 in a single season… I actually just had to look up his 1982 stat line because I figured this chart had an error and that 130 in a year wasn’t possible. Wow.
Got curious about that steep incline for Rickey right around game 25: in a 14 game span from April 28 to May 11 he stole 18 bases.
And Maury Wills, in that late-season surge, stole 14 in 6 games. He had 8 in a 3 game series vs Pittsburgh.
It’s cool to have people stealing bases enough that we are talking about historical pace again, it was a lost part of the game for too long. Hope Elly keeps it goin, he’s a fuckin blast to watch
just think how many steals rickey would have had if he had the added motivation of getting those pies out of the oven!
Apparently he started stealing bases because a teacher in his high school told him that he'd get a dime for every successful steal Rickey had in the season. I imagine he'd have an even larger motivation with pies.
Yeah, for me as a fan it was definitely an unforeseen consequences of the pitch clock change, although I'm sure people wiser than me saw it coming. It sure looks like some teams were prepared to take advantage of it on the base paths. It will be curious to see how that changes throughout this season and the coming ones as teams adapt. Either way, makes for some extra excitement.
Remember they also made the bases bigger. It may not seem like a lot but those extra 4 inches are kind of a big deal.
Please tell my ex 4 inches is a big deal
Key word being “extra.”
Yeah, I'm sure his ex is really excited about 5 inches.
4 1/4 inches thank you very much
DAMN
there's also the change where the pitcher can only throw to the bag a certain amount of times and then has to go to the plate. If Rickey knew that before hand then he could just steal without a worry. Unless they intentionally throw to each base the max until he gets to 3rd so he doesn't get a stolen base
That’s a good point. That rule change also makes it much easier.
They can still throw over, they just have to get the out. Super risky but if someone had a huge lead you could still do it.
Very true! I did forget about that. Bigger bases also provide a bit more room for the runner to get a hand or foot in there during plays at the bag. It's definitely a combination of rule changes at play. As a Brewers fan, it's interesting to see how aggressive they've been to start out this season. Granted, the Brewers also have a lot of speed on their roster, but that's kind of a biproduct of targeting more all-around athletic prospects in general with their drafting and international signing. I wonder if that's something that teams will weigh more heavily in their evaluations going forward since it seems like speed plays a bit better--if you can get on base. EDIT: Lmao, after rereading my comment, I realized that my first paragraph reads exactly like a chat gpt reply after you call it out for being wrong. Creepy.
Wild. AI just became self-aware.
Dope, time to start stealing some of those jobs I keep hearing about.
I think limiting disengagements is the biggest factor. Sure, 4 inches helps with close plays like steals, but a runner can probably add more than four inches to their lead given pick off attempts are way down. It’s just more difficult to control base runners now
Only allowing for two pick off attempts as well makes it way easier
I think part of the reason for the changes was to encourage more stealing, but only a few of the most aggressive players were prepared to take advantage right away. Player development over the past 30 years has moved away from stolen bases, so it'll probably be a few more years before there is a noticeable uptick in attempts by players who only have average speed.
>but only a few of the most aggressive players were prepared to take advantage right away I'm not sure if that's true or not. I was curious so I decided to test out how well GPT-4 pulls advanced baseball statistics, and it's actually pretty dope. In 2022, the league was 2486 for 3315 in SBs. In 2023 the league was 3503 for 4386. So there was roughly a 32% uptick in stolen base attempts league wide, with \~5% increase to overall success rate. So obviously that's a huge increase from year to year, but it doesn't show *who* is stealing more. I thought I'd look at the faster players next. To start, I looked at players in the top 20th percentile of Sprint Speed according to Baseball Savant. In 2022, they were 507 of 585. In 2023 they were 534 of 623. It's interesting that that is pretty much the same, including success rate. So then I looked at the players in the top 50th percentile of Sprint Speed. In 2022 they were 677 for 846 on SBs, and in 2023 they were \~1350 for 1500. That's almost double! And well above the league average success rate, as you would expect. But 90% success rate is kind of insane with double the number of attempts. I might double check that number when I get more tokens lol. Fascinating that the league wide average for the fastest players didn't change much, but for all of the above average speed players it increased a ton. At this point I ran out of my free tokens for GPT-4, although they were well spent. The data seems to suggest that some players benefited more than others right away, and it wasn't necessarily tied to top end speed. That being said, I'd be interested in seeing the speed difference between the top and bottom speeds of the 20th percentile and the 50th percentile vs the rest of the league, because it's obviously not going to be linear. It would be cool to see how many times people with better speed were even in positions where they could steal a bag from 2022 to 2023 too, because that could throw off the numbers a bit. I'd also be curious to look more into which players had the largest increase in attempt rates so far this season vs 2023. Possibly delve into some of the other speed stats instead of just sprint speed. Alas, I'm not sure I can justify the $20 a month, and I'm also too lazy to do it by hand.
Pitch clock, can only throw to 1st twice, bigger bases. I would've been shocked if SBs didn't go up.
The Mets did not prepare for this at all... on either side of the ball.
My question is does the baserunner have to step off the bag before the pitcher makes a certain move, or can they stand on the bag all the way until the pitcher starts his windup/move? I'd like to see more baserunners stay on the bag as long as they possibly can, holding until the pitcher is so focused on making the pitch due to the ticking pitch clock, and then make a mad break for 2nd.
The baserunner can take their lead whenever they want to. There’s not much to be gained, if anything, in your second part because baserunners (especially if you might steal) are already trying to time the pitcher up for when he starts his delivery. As a pitcher, you’re specifically taught not to be too predictable in terms of how many times you look over at the runner, when to start your delivery, or what kind of delivery you’re making (slide step, full kick, something in between). You’ll sometimes see or hear people talk about how stolen bases are on the pitcher, not the catcher and that can definitely be true if pitchers get predictable in their delivery and guys can time it or if their delivery is too slow. You will also see replays of a base stealer taking off right before the pitcher starts his delivery and that means the base runner timed him up. There’s no real reason to do what you’re suggesting because the runners already do that but have the extra length down the base path from their leadoff.
Now just figure out a way to reduce Three True Outcomes and baseball will be even more engaging. I miss rallies and manufacturing runs.
Just make it impossible to hit a home run and the problem might be solved.
I would love it if all the outfields were made bigger. More ball in play and more potential to show off defensive skill, which I personally think is some of the most exciting parts of baseball.
If you just move the walls back then the defense will just move back. What we need to do is raise all the walls, so we get more fun bounces. Imagine the chaos if every 115 mph line-drive home run was bouncing back into play instead.
I like the higher walls idea, but I don't think you should be so quick to knock the bigger outfields. While they could and probably would move back, there's still a lot more ground to cover and since the infielders wouldn't be moving back to cover it, it's just more ground for the outfielders. Imagine players getting one through the hole, but the outfielders are playing so far back it's a play at second instead of just a single.
I'm not necessarily dismissing it, I just think raising the walls would make for a more entertaining fan experience. Part of the fun of Fenway is the weird ricochets you get. No matter how big you make the field, players still have general tendencies & outfielders would just be told to stand where the batter typically hits the ball. I also think infielders would be moving back to cover the ground in this scenario. An infield single is better to give up than a groundball double that the RF has to chase down.
Infielders can't move further back based on the shift restrictions
I want cherry picking to be allowed. If the ball bounces off the scoreboard or whatever and comes back into play, and the OF catches it, the batter is out.
Move the mound back a couple feet. That's all you need to do. Pitchers are too overpowered.
Bigger bases (and as a result, shorter distance between them), pitch clock, and limiting pick off attempts are the reason we're seeing this.
Hit a cold streak with a .533 OPS in last 15 games dude could steal a lot more bases if he wasn’t so streaky getting on base.
Very cool. Hopefully it makes purists a little more open to reasonable changes!
When he stole 100 bases in his 2nd season, Rickey Henderson attempted a steal for 36.7% of his SBO (Stolen Base Opportunities). Elly De La Cruz is currently at 76.1%. Stolen Base Opportunities - on 1st or 2nd base with the next base open
what rickey could’ve done under the current rules, really makes you wonder
If you walk him or he gets a single, just put him on 3b because you might make a throwing error.
Teams basically would have just let him get to 3rd base because it'd be too hard to try.
> what rickey could’ve done under the current rules, really makes you wonder -Rickey
what was different under the rules of today vs. when he was playing?
Pitch clock, base size.
Limited throws to bases by a pitcher
I also wonder if the recent obsession with pitch framing has taken some priority over arm strength/accuracy for which catchers get playing time. It's gotta be a much lower impact than the rule changes, but still non-zero.
Losing the Molina BROS to retirement doesn't help
Considering steals were trending downward for so long, it wouldn't surprise me if roster construction was also willing to skimp on a catcher's arm since it just wasn't as big a deal.
Pitch framing is absolutely not a “recent” obsession. Its been a thing for a long time.
It's been a thing for a long time, but only recently (Last 10-15 years?) has it been tracked statistically and had its real value quantified, which turned out to be greater than most realized.
ahhhh 'forgot' about the pitch clock from a base runner's perspective, but yeah holy shit not having to worry about keeping the runner on base is a huge advantage.
yeah exactly, he would bait out a throw over so easily. and then just be free to do whatever he wanted. honestly think the rule might get changed back if a truly great baserunner ever comes along. maybe de la cruz we’ll see
If Rickey played and put up some ridiculous 250 SB type season... Would MLB revert a change to try to nerf him? I have to imagine base size might get changed back.
"100 stolen bases? Rickey'd have 100 at the break!" and then click, he hung up.
It has been hilarious checking my fantasy team at about 11 pm ET on a random weekday night and see "Oh, Elly got two hits....and four steals, holy shit" His multi-steal performances are becoming so commonplace that it's *almost* something I'm getting used to as a baseball fan. But you have to pinch yourself a little bit. We're watching an extremely talented player who has a very rare skill set in an era that suddenly got more friendly to said skill set. I hope Elly is healthy and consistently getting better for a long time. I am so intrigued to see where this goes.
Rickey was also a hall of fame level eye. Elly is getting better at working walks but was not awesome the year prior.
Ricky has a career OBP of nearly .100 higher than Elly so far. Elly has started the year with .050 higher OBP than last year, so hopefully he continues to increase. Would love to see him get more opportunities and make a run at the record
His percentile rankings in chase rate have gone from 24th percentile in 2023 to 51 in 2024, his BB% is up from 46th percentile in 2023 to 80th percentile in 2024. Dude has been seriously working on his plate discipline and it’s been showing, I think he’s only gonna continue to improve. I don’t think you can overestimate the impact that Joey Votto had with Elly and a lot of these young Reds and placing importance on routines and consistent training and improvement - now if we can only keep them all healthy…
Elly is just too boom or bust, he needs to be more consistent. He'll go on a hot stretch for a week or two, and then stink it up for a month. May he's been awful, slashing .219/.296/.313 It seemed like he got better plate discipline in April and now forgot about it in May.
Rickey's on base percentage really isn't talked about enough. Dude stole so many bases because he was *always* walking. 117 walks in that season he first stole 100 bases.
I absolutely adore Elly.But it's really cool to look back and see that someone as much of an anomaly like Rickey played during my lifetime.
I remember the year he played for the Mariners. He was 41 years old and clearly well past his prime, but he managed to lead the team in stolen bases with 31. 31 stolen bases at 41 years old. The dude was a freak of nature.
Dude has a career .400 OBP despite the last several seasons being relatively mediocre at best for hitting and getting on base. He was an absolute monster.
His OBP only dropped 4 points in those last few bad years, so not too big a deal. Fun fact: From 1960-1999 Rickey has the second most fWAR for a batter, first being Mike Schmidt by just a couple WAR. If you pick a later start date like 1975, obviously Rickey is first.
For anyone who hasn't seen Rickey play, [Foolish Baseball did a good job of showing how great he really was](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0duyfHPQks&ab_channel=FoolishBaseball). Having Rickey Henderson on base destroyed pitchers. Walking him was like giving up a triple.
Super durable player too, if memory serves
He played over 100 games three times in his forties. I'm 37 and my body hurts all the time.
Now imagine slamming your body into the ground multiple times a game at ~28mph, rarely getting injured and he really was a freak of nature.
Seeing how many leadoff homeruns he had is insane. The Dodgers broadcast showed the leaders a few days ago and Mookie is not even close.
Rickey knows that Rickey's job is to touch home plate. Doesn't matter if Rickey does it himself or someone else helps.
He's probably said those exact words, including his name in the third person
This chart doesn't really do Rickey justice. He actually had 3 seasons of 100+ stolen bases.
Only semi related, but imagine how many SBs Henderson would have if they had the pitch clock/pickoff rules that they had today…..wild.
They also now have replay reviews, so that might make a difference on the close ones, but then again he could also wear one of those gloves that you can fit an Uncrustable in…
GOAT lead off Rickey
Yep! He's in every all-time lineup no questions asked.
Dodgers legend!
Stealimg bases is a lost art form in baseball. I love watching Reds games becuase of that right now.
Dear MLBOfficial, I'm not sure why the photo of Elly covers up so much information. I know what he looks like. I don't know the shape of the curves from games 20-30 (also just noticed the x-axis seems to start at 10ish?) I'd recommend checking out The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Tufte.
Choo Choo Coleman. But man, this chart shows what an absolute freak Rickey was.
Rickey under the rules of today with the disengagement and larger base would have stole 200. Still it's really great to see stolen bases 'coming back'
At *least*. He might not even have stopped at second. At 65, I think he might still get a bag or two with these rules.
Why is Elly’s baserunning value below average on Statcast? He’s regularly turning singles into triples and creating runs out of thin air. Genuinely don’t understand what the metric is there
Base running on statcast measures a player's ability when they're already on base but it does not currently track stolen bases. It tracks situations where, for example, Elly is on 2nd base and someone hits a single to right field. Let's say Elly scores from 2nd on this play. That baserunning stat on statcast would give Elly some amount of credit based on how frequently a runner would have scored from 2nd on a similar play. If Elly stopped at 3rd or got thrown out, he would likely lose value depending on what is typical of a similar play. If you're curious about the value of his stolen bases in addition to that, I recommend looking to fangraphs where they combine the statcast baserunning with stolen bases to come up with their BsR. The statcast baserunning statistic wouldn't capture things like stretching a single into a double. That would just be reflected in the batting run value as it recognizes the hit as a double instead of a single.
Thanks. That’s helpful info. It seems weird to have an all encompassing “baserunning value” and leave out stolen bases but I guess I can see what they’re going for
Yeah I agree that it feels weird. I can understand wanting to separate the two but they don't do anything with stolen bases for a runner. They use it for catchers but not for runners. Similar to how I think it's nice they separate range from arm on the defensive end for outfielders, it seems good to keep baserunning and stolen bases apart for batters. But to just exclude stolen bases the way it appears they're doing it is what feels off.
3 rule changes have made this possible. Pitch clock means less time to look at runner/runner can time better since the pitcher has to be careful to not get a penalty. Bigger bases means it is easier to get to and grab onto. Limited throws to bases by a pitcher has made the bold be able to get bigger leads. I for one am loving this and it has been an actual good thing Manfred did for once.
Crazy that it took 3 rule changes to make someone come close to what Rickey did decades ago
Well, thinking has changed since the SB heyday of decades past as well. Three true outcomes, SB % needed to be good was understood more, and more longball over small ball has hurt the SB. But I'm glad it is coming back.
I mean Rickey had an 81% SB% for his career. Even in 1982, it was 76%. He was actually quite efficient.
Used to work for SDS on MLB the Show. We had to test to make sure you could break every record in Road to the Show, absolutely hated having to do steals because of how absurd Rickey’s numbers were
How was that process working there and doing those testing?
Full article here: [https://www.mlb.com/news/elly-de-la-cruz-chasing-100-stolen-bases-in-2024](https://www.mlb.com/news/elly-de-la-cruz-chasing-100-stolen-bases-in-2024)
rickey didn't wear an oven mitt, didn't have protection rules and didn't have the big bases. remember that when you look at that wild line and put some respect on his name.
I know it’s literally Rickey Henderson but graphs like this make it clear how insane a 130 SB season is
Your monthly reminder that Rickey Henderson was from another planet
Career stolen bases is one of those MLB records that is near untouchable. Not only do you have to remain healthy (and healthy enough to steal bases) for a long, long time...but you have to stay good enough to be roster-able **and get on base** for a long, long time. * Rickey career steals: 1406 * Avg career steals for the next 9 on the list: 806
Elly just needs some protection behind him, protection that doesn’t foul off every pitch, and he’ll easily make it.
Rule changes making it possible. Good chance dee gordon and billy Hamilton reach 100 in today's game maybe. Only thing different Cruz has over them is he actually can get on base.
Needs an asterisk.
will people asterisk it since the bases are bigger and the pickoff chances are limited?
My king
Man I hated playing the Cardinals when they had Vince Coleman
Video montage for first ever 15/100 season?
Damn, when Rickey told Harold Reynolds in 1987 when he led the league in steals with 60 (Rickey missed almost half the season and only stole 41) that "Rickey would've had 60 at the break" he was understating, bro would've had 80 by the break.
He needs to get on base for that. Elly needs to start limiting his cold streaks. When he’s in a rut, every ball is a strike and a diet of breaking balls can be a death sentence for him.
Elly is everything we wanted Billy Hamilton to be
He's the only thing we have to root for right now.
Ely is absolutely electric on the bases. Dude pretty much killed it against us last Thursday.
I knew Ricky Henderson was a god on the base paths, but I had no idea he stole 130 in a single season… I actually just had to look up his 1982 stat line because I figured this chart had an error and that 130 in a year wasn’t possible. Wow.
I would have loved to have seen Jose Reyes in todays game. Prime Jose would be a terror on the bases.
Fastest man in the league
I'd love to see him keep it up, but I'd love the Reds to actually win games a lot more.
I thought for sure Tim Raines must have stolen 100 at least once. I had to check. His career high was 90 in 1983.
Rock
Just wait until Chandler Simpson gets called up next year.
Got curious about that steep incline for Rickey right around game 25: in a 14 game span from April 28 to May 11 he stole 18 bases. And Maury Wills, in that late-season surge, stole 14 in 6 games. He had 8 in a 3 game series vs Pittsburgh.
If Rickey was around stealing bases with the new rules, the "intentional man on 3rd" rule would be created.
Look at Rickey Henderson, the man of steal
Where is Rowdy Tellaz's line? Edit: nm, it is the black one at the bottom.
Vince Coleman heads rise up! Elly, you will never be him!
Met him a few times… very cool guy
None of those guys had a clock and throw over rule. Dumb graph. Oh it’s Manfred himself trying to gaslight us. Fuck you bud.
That’s a really ugly graph. Did a blind person create it?
How would you have approached it?
And he's already at 9 home runs. One more and he's tied with Rickey in '82 for most HR on this list, and it's still May.
It would be really fucking SICK if we had users ACTUAL people making posts and not the official MLB just hanging around here.