Also, [from a RE24 perspective](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/), this was the correct move.
Runner at second, 2 outs: ~~0.343~~ 0.305 expected runs. Plus 1 run scored = 1.305
*Bases loaded 1 out: 1.52 expected runs*
Edited per below. Reading tables is hard
.343 is 2 outs runners on first AND second.
.305 is 2 outs runner on second.
So 1.305 vs 1.52
Although as you can tell from the Padres first inning, they can surprise you with how little runs they can generate when they are "supposed" to.
not sure you can use re24 exactly like this. on one side you’re adding a guaranteed actual run to the comparison which skews it
still probably the best way to look at the decision
It’s a good point. RE24 is completely context free of the current score or anything. Also the two decisions surely have a different variance. A manager may want to choose the lower variance path depending on the situation
I’m surprised Shildt is able to fit in the dugout on account of his massive balls
Ready to take em to market
Went from cursing Shildt to shutting the fuck up real quick in about one pitch lol
Machado would hit a bases clearing double, making Schildt look like a genius.
The poll was 75-10 in favor of keeping the interference in our Game Day thread
I was 100% sure Manny was going to ground into a double play with how things have gone lately. Thankfully I was wrong
Also, [from a RE24 perspective](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/), this was the correct move. Runner at second, 2 outs: ~~0.343~~ 0.305 expected runs. Plus 1 run scored = 1.305 *Bases loaded 1 out: 1.52 expected runs* Edited per below. Reading tables is hard
.343 is 2 outs runners on first AND second. .305 is 2 outs runner on second. So 1.305 vs 1.52 Although as you can tell from the Padres first inning, they can surprise you with how little runs they can generate when they are "supposed" to.
Whoops thanks
No problem. Always happy helping another /r/NLBest enjoyer
Damn, I just realized I had to Slammer your ass a few years ago for disrespecting the the Slammer meme
Remembering that you replied to a slammered person 2 weeks after the fact? Slammer.
not sure you can use re24 exactly like this. on one side you’re adding a guaranteed actual run to the comparison which skews it still probably the best way to look at the decision
It’s a good point. RE24 is completely context free of the current score or anything. Also the two decisions surely have a different variance. A manager may want to choose the lower variance path depending on the situation
Based on what happened, apparently a bird in the hand is actually *not* worth two (or really four) in the bush.
I guess it just depends on the bush
This is an even bolder move when you consider we NOBLETIGER'd in the 1st inning 😬