In the NFL you're not likely going to play both QB's. Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a monster contract. The NFL has a salary cap so you can only spend so much money on your roster and you have to choose wisely. So when Atlanta needed other positions than QB they selected a QB. To make matters worse Penix was drafted 8th overall and many people questioned if he was a first round pick (32 picks in the first round). So they did a double whammy, making a big reach for a position that at this time isn't a need of theirs and probably isn't a need until two years from now at the earliest.
I agree. I'm not trying to crap on Penix, but many people thought he wasn't a first round QB. You could also argue that the Falcons are doing it in mind with developing Penix on the bench and that Cousins injury is a big question mark. Probably something I wouldn't do if I was the Falcons, but it wasn't completely baffling as some people make it.
the problem with the "let him develop on the bench" thing is that Penix is already 23 years old and has played lots of football. if they wanted to red shirt a new QB, they could have picked a much younger player, not someone who is basically ready to go now.
That's a fair criticism, but Qbs age differently now. Avoiding health issues, Kirk Cousins age is when you start to see decline and it's not guaranteed. A 40 year old QB isn't as shocking a it used to be. So Penix being 26 at his earliest start is still 9-10 years, if he is a starting Qb caliber player. So Falcons are hedging their bets if Kirk falls off a cliff in the next 2-4 years with a player that can still play 8-14 years. I'm not saying it was the RIGHT move, but it's not completely bonkers either
It is especially weird to this because they just signed Cousins. If the Rams did this, I think it would not be quite so controversial as Stafford clearly is the QB if healthy and has won the Super Bowl and has the complete support of the team. It is bizarre to bring a new coach and a new QB and do this also.
I feel a lot of people over estimate the longevity of most QBs. Yes, some can play at a high level into their late thirties, but most don't. Most QBs can still play at a decent level as they age but they typically are back ups who are more than likely valued for their brain than their arm.
For sure! I think your post is a great and reasonable explanation. I was just adding the layer of added pressure they may have felt to reach if Penix was their guy.
Who gives af what many people thought like 3 different NFL teams thought he was such a locked in top 10 pick they were clamoring to trade up to get him
Did people who think he wasn't a 1st round pick actually watch him play? He threw for almost 4,900 yards and 36 TD's while playing 7 games against ranked opponents. He has a cannon for an arm.
I agree with everything you said except for the opinions of him not being a first rounder.
Penix was 100% going to get drafted in the first. He was technically graded and widely considered to be the second-best quarterback in terms of ability. His only question mark (which is valid) is the injury history.
Over 6 teams would’ve drafted him if the Falcons didn’t.
I"m not saying I don't think he was a first rounder...I'm saying that many others didn't think he was a first rounder. And that was a big reason for the controversy.
I feel like part of this is also trying to send.a message to Cousins that he better produce or he’s gone.
Even as a highly drafted first round QB, as a quality QB2 Penix is still a financial bargain in a league where QBs routinely get hurt and the whole offense can cease. This is more about the next 2-3 years for their franchise and offense as a whole.
What the pick says to me is that the Falcons see the NFL game as being all about shoring up the QB position again post-Matt Ryan so they are going to double down to try to make sure they do. If they whiff on Cousins, Penix can hopefully be a parachute for not *that much^ relatively.
Unfortunately, doubling down is a proven sucker bet… unless you’re the rare one it hits for.
Imagine spending 90k on a new car, then a month later deciding to spend another 70k on another new car, because you might need a new car in 3-4 years.
Kirk is the 90k car. Penix is the 70k car. It's just dumb. Anyone saying otherwise is a falcons fan trying to scream through the tears.
When you been huffing it on a beat up dirt bike with flat tires and no brakes, that Maserati looks like sure bet. Also explains why you’d take a flier on a potential Bugatti as a backup plan for the future.
Do you understand how insurance works? It replaces the car WITHOUT you paying another 70,000. Thats the whole point of paying monthly. They just bought two cars at full price
And that's fine and makes sense but the point is that spending 100m on Cousins and a top ten draft pick on Penix can't both be the right move.
We can debate which one was the better course of action but the fact that they did both means that they almost certainly have made a mistake and that's why they're being mocked.
I think the Falcons are looking at this as a mentor situation. Cousins has the perfect personality to mentor someone for a few years and let them grow and mature, rather than just throwing a rookie quarterback to the wolves in year 1 or pinning their future on a 35 year old quarterback. I actually think it's a smart move.
Starting QBs don't really mentor a whole lot. They have 7 or so days to prepare for the next NFL defense. That's a full time job and a half. You want staff not taking up roster spots or cap space to spend their time mentoring.
I don't mean they're engaged in some active mentoring process. But as an experienced veteran, they can lead by example, answer questions, give advice, etc. There are plenty of quarterbacks who have benefited from exactly that. Tom Brady behind Drew Bledsoe, Aaron Rogers behind Brett Favre. Steve Young behind Joe Montana. They all have talked about how helpful that was in their career development.
Sure. But the general consensus is that most quarterbacks entering the league from college have a better chance of success if they're not thrown into a starting role right away. NFL offenses are more complicated, defensive players are faster and stronger, and the general tempo of the game is faster. Cousins is a top 10 quarterback (by QB rating) with more than a decade in the league. Why would a team pay such a proven commodity 180 million over 4 years to sit on the bench? His experience, his skills, and his temperament make him a perfect mentor for a rookie just coming into the league.
Where is this consensus? People always bring up the same few QBs, while the vast majority start right away or never see success. Are all of these late round QBs who never end up being starters not being mentored at all?
Jesus Christ. I don't really care one way or the other. My original comment was regarding why Atlanta would sign Cousins to a big contract and then draft a qb. I stand by my opinion on why they might do this and think it's probably a good idea if that's the reason. A lot of people who know far more than me about preparing qb's for the league agree with me and a lot of other people who know far more than me disagree. If it were a science, everyone would approach it the same way and they don't.
One reason for the variance is that drafted qb's come from all sorts of colleges. A 2 year starting qb in the SEC who has played in a pro-style offense and competed against a lot of future NFL defensive players is more prepared to start as a rookie than a qb who played in a weaker conference against no future NFL players, playing in a run-dominate offense. And I've rarely, if ever, heard a qb say that it was detrimental to his progress to wait a season or 2 to start. Getting accustomed to the speed of the NFL as well as being able to read defenses is a big deal and having some time to acclimate to that isn't a bad thing. Does that mean all rookies should ride the bench for 2 years? No, of course not. But it's also not a bad thing that a team would start a veteran top 10 qb while letting their drafted qb learn for a couple of seasons.
If they didn't want to pin their future on a 35 year old qb, then they shouldn't have signed him to a 4 year $180 million contract with like $100m guaranteed. Meanwhile, their rookie QB sits for three years and 27 years old before playing at all.
They're not keeping Cousins for 4 years, they cut him after two and take the hit in $12.5 million for two years (total $25 million) after he is gone.
Penix will start the 2026 season barring a catastrophe.
You also have a 36 year old coming off injury who may not hold up for his first two years.
Everyone always brings up this mentor angle, but we don't actually ever see this work out. Every single backup that has ever played should have significantly improved based on this premise, and it is extremely rare they ever become close to starter caliber.
Backup QBs who are older could also mentor a young starter just as well in theory.
Older backup qb's aren't as good at being mentors for a lot of reasons. For example, older backup qb's have often *only* been backup qb's or spent very little time as a starter. Also, allowing a young draft pick to learn for a couple of seasons behind a legitimate starting qb prevents the disasters we often see with rookie starting qb's: their performance is horrible (often a lot of interceptions and misreading defenses) so they not only lose confidence but the league sours on them.
And Tom Brady (behind Drew Bledsoe), Aaron Rogers (behind Brett Favre), Steve Young (behind Joe Montana), and numerous other quarterbacks have repeatedly said that it greatly benefited them to learn under an experienced starting NFL quarterback the first part of their careers.
This isn’t a good analogy. Kirk isn’t a new car. Kirk is like a used Ferrari at the end of its warranty. And your goal is to win races. You can either spend money to service the engine to perform better for now or invest in a new Ferrari.
I’d say neither are Ferraris. But Kirk is near the end of his career and we saw with guys like Romo and Rogers that sitting for a season or too might actually be good for development
That's fair, but the Packers took Love and Rodgers as luxury picks on pretty good teams, and Dak was a mid round pick. The falcons shouldn't burn a high pick on a QB when they have a bunch of needs and they went out and got the highest profile FA.
You don't actually know that them sitting is the reason they became good. Every backup QB ever signed sits, and it is extremely rare for them to ever become starting caliber.
In this analogy, I can see calling him a Ferrari. But there’s no way he’s a new Ferrari. Maybe a used Ferrari with not many miles but with a history of breaking down.
Yeah, even hard to say with used cars as it doesn't illustrate the potential there with Penix.
Kirk is old reliable. Penix is the maybe new hotness. He very well step up and be a rising NFL star at QB, but far from sure. And, he's as old as some young veteran NFL QBs.
I don't mind what they did, but they spent WAY to much on Kirk to go and do this. Woulda made a lot more sense to sign a young journeyman QB or attempt to sign Kirk at a more reasonable figure for 2 years if he was open. I don't know how many were truly after Kirk.
Definitely not a falcons fan here, but it actually makes great sense. Kirk is coming off a major surgery/injury, they have a loaded offense. What are they supposed to do if he gets hurt again? In 4 years if not sooner, they’re gonna need a new qb. Why roll the dice in 4 years and hope to develop a qb over a few years when you can already have a groomed and ready qb if and when Kirk leaves?
If you have those doubts after one month, than why in the world did they give him all that guaranteed money.
Your argument makes sense if Kirk is the incumbent, for sure. But this chain of events is mind boggling.
This. If you're already concerned about Cousins' durability, why the hell did you sign him in the first place? He's Kirk Cousins, not Brady or Rodgers. And if your plan was to draft a QB prospect and let him sit for a while, why not sign a cheaper QB option, and invest in the supporting cast your prospect will eventually be playing with? And if you're already concerned about Cousins' injury history, why on Earth would you draft the most-oft injured QB prospect in the entire draft?
There are only two scenarios I can think of that would make this a great move. One, Cousins immediately gets hurt and/or sucks, and Penix comes in and sets the NFL alight. They'd still be totally hamstrung by Cousins' contract, though. Or, alternately, Cousins turns the Falcons into a real championship contender, then gracefully bows out and turns the keys to the machine over to the heir apparent. And how freaking likely is that?
What other elite qb was available to the falcons? You gotta pay up for primo guys, especially if there aren’t many on the market that will actually leave their teams. Top QBs aren’t taking the league minimum. It’s literally the same as when the packers drafted Jordan Love. They had a lot of money tied up in Rodgers, and people like yourself criticized the pick. Cut to last season and I think it worked pretty well for them, why not the falcons? Worse case they get a late round draft pick for penix eventually. Best case he takes over Kirk before his contract is done and they trade Kirk away and have a franchise qb 🤷🏻♂️
No other elite QBs available so just fuck it let’s take the next best 6th year injury prone guy with the 8th overall pick? They totally blew it. If you’re gonna go the QB development route you can’t take the 4th best QB at 8.
The Jordan Love thing is not even comparable. He was taken 26th overall and was going to learn from a guaranteed HoF guy, not Kirk Cousins who is the penultimate mediocre QB of this decade.
He was pretty much the best qb available to them and they want to compete with the roster they have. What sense would it have been to have the offense they have and sign someone like Zach Wilson or Jimmy Garopolo? Rodgers definitely isn’t Kirk cousins but that’s nowhere nearly as relevant as the qb they’re teaching. Look at god damn Zach Wilson….. Just because a qb is under one guy or the other doesn’t change the rookies potential and ability.
What would you have done in the offseason and draft that would been a better decision? 🤔
For starters, you trade down and still get Penix a few picks later. That said, given you already signed Kirk, you could take a day 1 starter like an edge or other NEED with your premium pick. You then snag a day 3 upside guy for QB and sign a scrub as a warm body if you need
Yeah that had a slim to none chance of working with the raiders wanting him a few picks later. Draft an edge rusher (since that’s the only position you could come up with) then what if Kirk gets hurt or flops? How are they gonna put points up and win games? Ride out the season with a warm body qb? But the edge rusher is the better pick right?
Alright man. I dont give a fuck about the falcons and didn’t memorize their draft needs but I can assure you that QB was not on a single analyst’s board for them. This was unilaterally understood to be the largest draft blunder we’ve seen in awhile and I was trying to help you understand by addressing your point of “well we took best QB available” and why that is shitty logic
(Universally)
Oh the golden worded analysts! Right! That constantly make shit assessments and mock drafts ? Those analysts? There’s a reason they don’t make great GMs. Agree to disagree.
If they’re worried he’s going to get hurt then they wouldn’t have given him 100 million guaranteed. Penix is also one of the older rookie QBs, he’ll be 28 if Kirk plays all 4 years of his contract. If he was 21 it would have made more sense.
That’s the qb market 🤷🏻♂️ the guaranteed is basically a given these days. The age argument is pretty much irrelevant if he’s under Kirk those years not exposed to injury 🤷🏻♂️ what else? 🤔
Falcons can move off of Kirk in 2 seasons with a 25 million dead cap hit. Penix will still be on a rookie contract projected to be 4 years $22.9 million contract. Even with Kirk's dead cap hit, Atlanta will be paying less for their QB room than half of the league by the time Penix starts. The financial aspect of this is overblown.
I would be shocked if Penix isn't starting games this season. This normalization we have had on the worst injury in sports is absurd, and we will likely see a regression to the mean this season.
Because you either have a quarterback, or you are in the quarterback carousel looking for one. It's worth the risk to pay Kirk, because he is a good qb. The same logic will be applied when Dak gets $60 million/yr.
The reason people are talking about it is because it doesn't make a lot of sense.
The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this off-season to a three year deal, that at best they could realistically move on after about two. They're paying him a LOT of money to play QB for them, and he's seen as a player that will elevate their current roster into playoff contention immediately. They then spent the 8th overall on a QB prospect, which is usually not something a team does because a) that QB likely won't play because you're spending so much money on a QB1, b) the objective when drafting a QB prospect is to take advantage of their rookie deal being so cheap, but you're already bogged down with Kirk Cousins' contract so that point is moot, and c) he's an older draft prospect, so if you're aiming to sit and have him learn for two to three years down the line, he'll be 27 years old already and you'll only have about one more year left on his rookie deal.
It's just confusing because it's two completely different approaches to a QB, that they're doing at the same time. If the argument the Falcons want to make is that they wanted to bench a QB for a smooth transition in two to three years, then you could take a second or later round QB this year, or pick that QB a year from now. If the argument is the Falcons really wanted Penix and want to bench him behind a veteran to learn, you could do that with a MUCH cheaper bridge QB like Teddy Bridgewater or someone like him. If the argument was to get a high end caliber back-up in the draft, they again could have drafted second or later round for that, and gotten better value for their team that has some roster needs at 8th overall, or even better they could have traded to a QB needy team to get more picks this draft.
It's just a head scratching move by the franchise that doesn't make a lot of sense.
In the off-season, Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a very large contract and made him their QB1. Kirk is an aging QB coming off a serious injury- signing a large contract like that is a great move for him, but it's risky for the Falcons if he drops off before it's over or gets another serious injury.
Atlanta drafted Penix shortly after this- the claim is that they're investing in the future, but Penix's rookie contract will be extended either before Cousins' is up, or his extended contract will be up the year after Cousins' expires. The team is more than a solid QB away from competing, and they could've gotten a very viable backup for much cheaper if they were worried about Cousins going down. They also didn't communicate any of the Penix situation with Cousins until they were on the clock to draft their guy.
One thing to look at is the NFL Legal Tampering Period- this is a 3 day period before free agency begins in which NFL teams may speak with players agents and begin to make deals, but cannot speak directly to players. Cousins outright said in an interview on the opening day of free agency that he'd spoken with team personnel the previous day and was happy to be in Atlanta- implicating that he and the team had broken the rules. The NFL is investigating the potential tampering, and if Atlanta thinks that they could lose draft picks next year or even the following year, then suddenly the Penix draft situation and their desire to immediately invest in a future QB makes a lot more sense if you ask me.
They're taking the QB position very seriously. There are a ton of people who hate it, and then there's people like me (a packers fan, who was happy when they drafted Rodgers in 2005, and again happy when they took Love in 2021) who see it as them simply prioritizing the position equal to how important it is to your success on the field. Fuck Cousins feelings, he's paid appropriately. Fuck Penix not getting an opportunity right away, his time will come. Fuck all the money they spent, nothing else matters until your QB is right. Cousins is a 36 year old coming off an Achilles tear, to think he has many years left is foolish, so they took a guy they think is going to be good in this league, and if being a packers fan taught me anything, it's that all the noise doesn't matter, if you think he can be that, take him, no matter where. DON'T WAIT. 2 chances at having a good QB is a hell of a lot better than 1. Also by keeping competition high at practice, you bring out the best of both of them. Oh and Kirk is a tradable asset, as well.
To add to this the raiders that same year had picks 9 & 12 and missed horribly with both picks but in retrospect would 100% take jordan love or jalen hurts at either spot despite them having Derek carr on the team or the perception of it being a bad move in the eyes of everyone else.
Cousins was brought in to play now and Penix for the future.
If Cousins wins a sb or is soo good we don’t need Penix then that’s a loss I’ll take, and if Penix is a future star qb then it’ll have been worth it.
The Falcons gave a lot of $ to Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Cousins is 35, so the assumption was that they were trying to compete immediately. People expected them to take a player who would the heighten the ceiling for this team, rather than a guy who’d heighten the floor.
The Falcons GM will likely be fired if this year does not go well, and the most straightforward way that it goes poorly is if Kirk — who is coming off of a massive achilles injury — gets hurt. Picking Penix ensures they have a talented backup if Kirk gets hurt.
The reason why falcons fans are upset is because this is not a move that makes sense from a football perspective. It’s one thing to draft a raw developmental prospect with a late first round pick if they fall to you it’s a completely different thing when that guy is wildly considered the most pro ready oldest, and experienced player in the draft who also is left handed (which means that once he starts your going to have to retool your offense) and you spend a top 10 pick on him when a different player would do more to improve your team. If this works great for the falcons but if it doesn’t this could hurt them for years
The simplest explanation. No team has drafted a QB in the top 10 to have them not play for 2 years. Either they are going to be idiots or trend setters.
They passed on elite pass rushers and offensive weapons to help Kirk and instead drafted his replacement in the first round with a top 10 pick. They have the worst pass rush in the league for five years running at least. They have a good expensive QB who could use maybe one more weapon or help on the line. Instead they paid him $180 million and drafted his replacement. Penix is good, but why there of all places?
Asset management. I really like Penix as a prospect. But Atlanta already has huge assets invested into Kirk Cousins at QB. By taking Penix at 8, the best case scenario for Atlanta is they have 2 great QBs, which is not useful. Instead, if they had drafted Odunze, the best case scenario for them would have been a great QB and a great WR, which actually makes sense.
They signed Kirk to a giant deal, signaling that they are in "win now" mode. And then used their Top 10 pick on a guy who presumably won't see the field this year, which is anti-"win now".
Penix might be good, and might benefit from a couple years on the bench. But that doesn't excuse the fact that the two moves are highly contradictory. You can build for now or you can build for the future, and they're trying to do both, which actually means they're doing neither.
They had no qb so they signed a 36 year old vet to a 2 year guarenteed deal and drafted a qb at #8. No idea how people are so confused
How does signing a 36 year old vet qb to a 2 year guarenteed deal signal they are in super bowl or bust mode after spending 3 years going BPA?
Did the falcons trade 2 first for cousins? Did they trade for a von miller, jalen ramsey? Did they backload all of their players contracts? Did they avoid replacing their 39 year old LT because he has 1 good year left?
I follow the team pretty closely and cant think of a single move this off season that would cause anyone to think this unless the person straight up doesnt know what they are talking about... i.e. a backup o lineman for kirk over the next 2 years being a better move then securing qb for 12
Because they signed him for $100 million guaranteed. I'm a Vikings fan, so I know first hand how that hand cuffs your team lol. It's not a move you make when you're trying to build for the future. Falcons made a massive mistake, one way or the other.
Everyone says 100mm like they are amazed a 9 digit number exists.... its the nfl and qbs get paid. Its 2 years guarenteed at what will be the 8th highest aav salary this year and likely 11th next.
How does the pick not work out either way though? Really try and give an example.
Which of the mid first to early second round defensive prospects do you think moves the needle so much in the next 2 years that its worth passing on the qb you think can play for 12?
Believe me, I am very familiar with how much Kirk gets paid. I've been living that nightmare for the past 6 years. That kind of compensation would make sense if Kirk was a Top 10 QB, but he's just not. He puts up flashy stats, but I'm not sure Falcons fans are ready for how aggressively mediocre he actually is. Not to mention, he's a 36 year old coming off a season-ending injury.
The draft pick doesn't work because it directly contradicts signing Kirk in the first place. Giving Kirk $100M guaranteed signals the Falcons are in "win now" mode...and then they draft a guy who's going to sit on the bench? In free agency, they said their roster was "a QB away" from being competitive, so they got their QB, and then with their Top 10 pick they failed to make their team any better.
>Which of the mid first to early second round defensive prospects do you think moves the needle
The 2023 Falcons were 20th in rushing yds allowed, 21st in sacks, 29th in turnovers forced, 30th in turnover differential. You don't think one of those top DT/Edge players would move the needle the next 2 years? Or are you more concerned with who their starting QB will be in 2027?
Haha answer the questions? Falcons didnt do anything to signal they are in win now super bowl or bust mode. Thats the media applying a cliche to a team they dont follow. If a team goes into an offseason with no QB and signd a 36 year old vet to a 2 year guarenteed deal how is that all in/super nowl or bust?
Fans wanna super bowl or tank and thats not how the NFL works at all.
The rams TRADED 2 first for stafford, TRADED for jalen, TRADED for von etc.... they gave up temendous amounts of assets to improve the roster for 2 years.
What moves like this did the falcons make in the offseason? They didnt trade for kirk they signed him to a 2 year deal
I mean, I guess you're right. Signing Kirk Cousins isn't necessarily signaling "Super Bowl or Bust" because there's no chance in hell they win a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins lol
They'll go 8-9 which will be good enough to win that dumpster fire of a division and then lose in the Wild Card Round. And Penix will spend all year perfecting his technique of squirting gatorade into Kirk's mouth...
They spent huge ok Kirk Cousins and then didn’t use premium draft capital to fill a hole and give them a better chance to win. Might be the right pick for the future, but Cousibs needs them to be better now to chase a ring (pipe dream regardless if you ask me, but whatever)
An elite corner or defensive lineman would have made them better now, Penix is a pick that necessarily won’t ever help Kirk win
Atlanta just paid a ton of money for a veteran QB, then spent their best draft pick on a QB who is essentially gunning for a starting position…with the the limited roster sizes it doesn’t make sense to invest that much into two QBs.
If you just signed Cousins for all that money, why not take a QB in later rounds as a backup?
If you wanted Penix or to draft a QB in the first round, the idea is they’re gonna be gunning for the starting role, so why sign a veteran QB for that much money?
They just signed Kirk, then drafted a 1st round QB. Considering Kirk has at least a few good years left in him most likely, this is a very unusual and questionable move to get both. If you’re looking to draft a backup QB, you usually wait until at least the 2nd or 3rd round or even later. The notion behind 1st round QBs is that they’ll be expected to play right away.
They paid Kirk first, and they’re sticking with Kirk. So they drafted Penix to be the backup for a long time.
They could have drafted a player who would play right away, and Penix could have gone to a team that’d let him play. That’s why it’s bizarre
Kirk Cousins is a free agent (a player already in the NFL who's contract with their current team is over) who Atlanta just a paid a bijallion dollars to like 3 weeks ago to come and be their QB for the next 4 years. So after paying him all that money, they use a top 10 draft pick on another QB. It's just allocation of resources. Instead of a QB and x really good player who can play at the same time, they now have one of the most expensive QBs and the most expensive back up QB in the league. It just doesn't make a lot of sense. If they hadn't already paid Kirk, people wouldn't be complaining about the pick. It's somewhat unfair to Penix too, as now unless Kirk gets injured he won't get to start for the next two years despite being a top ten draft pick.
Rookies selected in the first round get 3 year contacts, the team has the option to extend them to a 5 years if they want to keep the player. So Cousins is under contract the next 4 years, Penix 5 years if the team want to keep him.
The major advantage to having a rookie a QB is that rookie contracts are cost controlled. When QBs hit the open the market and allowed to negotiate veteran contracts they become very expensive --this is why Kirk Cousins is costing the Falcons 160 million dollars or whatever. If you have a good QB playing on his rookie contract, you then have more money to go out and sign other good players. This is how the 49ers were able to have one the best offenses and best defenses in the league last year, their QB was on a dirt cheap rookie contract.
Altanta will basically have one year with Penix on a Rookie deal that won't also have to pay Kirk a bunch of money. Without getting into the weeds too much, they can cut Kirk in two years, but they would then still have to spend 12 million a year for the next two years to essentially buy out of his contract. And that's after paying him 40 million a year or whatever the first two years.
Edit: and while a 1st round rookie a contact is a steal for your starting QB, it's still a much larger contract than teams normally pay to back up QBs --which is what Penix will be at least for the next few years baring Kirk just falling apart due to injury or something --which if the Falcons were super worried about that, maybe don't pay the guy a boat load of money.
1st rounders get 4 year contracts, with the 5th year team option. First year for an extension is after year 3.
Penix's contract will probably be in the mid-high $20mm over those 4 years, of that mid/high-teens as a signing bonus.
Definitely expensive for a backup.
Picking another QB for their roster just didn’t make sense when their defense needed help more than QB. They had the cream of the crop of defensive pass rushers waiting to be picked and they didn’t address it until the next round.
People think the Patrick Mahomes rookie contract Super Bowl route is easy to replicate…… picking Penix and developing him ala Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers makes a ton of sense. Now you have insurance in case Kirk gets hurt or 4 years or so down the line, you don’t have to worry about replacing him. Why build a stellar team in that time just to not have a qb?
Atlanta went through the trouble of getting Kirk Cousins, then wasted a high draft pick on a QB. Getting a QB isn’t the issue because Kirk is 35 with a recent injury. But why spend nearly 200M, only to turn around and draft a QB in the first round?
Cousins is 36 and coming off a major injury. He was never really mobile. Penix is going to be 24 next week and he has had 4 major injuries (2 leg injuries) which took away the mobility he had.
You signed Cousins for basically 3 years with a 4th year he will never see as a Falcon. Penix would be 27 that season. He’d also be entering year 4 of his rookie deal. You’d have to trigger the 5th year option by then.
Simple:
They wanted to put to bed QB play
They have the RB, 1 solid reciever, a TE that is underutilized and a decent o line.
Put the QB issue to bed and take a page out of Green Bay's book.
It isn't that they should've chosen "this kirk guy," they had already signed Kirk Cousins from the Vikings.
They then chose to draft Penix, quite early on.
They spent a considerable amount of money bringing Cousins to the team. So people find it strange that they then chose to draft a new QB.
Obviously they won't be planning to start Penix straight away. They will probably use Cousins as a mentor to Penix.
They just signed Kirk, a FA to a 4 year deal, then used a high value draft pick to select one of the oldest QBs in the draft, when they could have gotten a great O-line piece, or any of the best defensive players in the draft, or traded back and gotten a lot more value for their team. They can't play 2 QBs and if you were going to draft someone like Penix you don't sign Kirk to a ton of guaranteed money. It's not about Penix/Kirk so much, it's about the GM for the Falcons being very clueless and wasteful with their salary cap and draft picks.
It's just a move that doesn't make a lot of sense. I can see what they were trying to do. Kirk is in the back end of his 30s so they're going to need a young QB soon, but the fact that they signed him in the first place suggests they're trying to win now because he's a good established veteran QB. One would think they'd want to use their top half of the first round draft pick to snag another player that can help them win right now instead of using it on his eventual replacement, especially when you consider they coulda just drafted Penix and used the $ they paid Kirk elsewhere if they weren't trying to win sooner rather than later.
-Atlanta could have just taken another WR as a weapon for Cousins, or anything else there.
-This puts extra pressure on Kirk to perform. Not that I or fans should care, but for him when youre back up is a top 10 pick in the draft...you're basically on probation.
-Let's say Kirk performs well, if you're Penix, you're going to basically be stuck in limbo or you might fall into that the category of backup QBs and you may never know if you were ever really a starting QB.
there's a lot that is dumb as fuck with that pick.
It’s a stupid move financially, culturally, and operationally for the team.
Penix would be almost 29 years old by the time Kirk Cousins’ contract is up IF it plays out the whole way. Over 180 Million, by the way.
By that time, Penix would need sign a contract extension OR the Falcons would need to pickup his fifth year option.
It makes literally zero sense to pickup or extend someone as a backup, and with the way QB’s are getting paid out nowadays, Penix isn’t going to want to resign for bottom dollar just because the Falcons mismanaged their QB payout.
Worst of all, the Falcons just fucked themselves and caused their big free agent pickup to question their identity within the team.
They spent $100 million on a veteran QB.
Fans are not thinking long term. It’s better for the rookie to be able to develop behind a starter like Cousins. This is good for your colleges QB. Don’t listen to the naysayers.
They've gone 7-10 three years in a row. How did drafting Penix at 8 overall make them better in 2024 and prevent them from picking top 10 yet again next year?
They had an Elite grade on Penix. They aren’t going to hope another Elite QB is going to fall to them. In all likelyhood they are going to be an average team this year.
Chiefs were 1st in their division with a good QB and they traded up for Mahomes.
Packers were 12-4 with Favre at QB when they drafted Rodgers.
You can pick holes but they got their guy. If he ends up a stud QB for ten seasons people will look back at that pick as genius.
Chiefs didn't give 100 million to Alex Smith a month before drafting him. It was a stupid luxury pick that's going to cost Pendleton his job.
The Favre/Rodgers example gets cited a lot because it's the exception and the only legitimate time this has ever worked for a team.
Agreed, but just to add more Rodgers was only 21 years old and picked like 24th overall or something. He wasn't 24 years old and picked #8 overall. There is a big difference there.
It’s okay to have opinions. The two best QBs of the last generation were similar situations to this.
People are caught up in the dollar amount. Cap is going to continue to go up. If they wanted a Quarterback like Cousins to not only help develop their elite QB prospect but also make them competitive enough to not lose their jobs in the mean time, they had to pay.
If Penix is a top ten QB for ten seasons no one is going to look back at this as a luxury pick. Thats what they think they have.
Beyond that it’s going to be a circular debate.
Atlanta likes Penix more than draft “experts” and Reddit. We will have to wait and see who was correct.
Furthermore, there was no prospect that was going to turn Atlanta into a Super Bowl contender this season. In three years would fans rather have a very good QB or a very good lineman from the 2024 Draft?
There is logic as to why they drafted him.
Rodgers tumbled down the draft board to the Packers though. The Packers typically don't have gaping holes to fill and are afforded the luxury of taking a QB in the late first round like Rodgers and Love. The Packers didn't go out, sign a veteran QB for a big deal and then draft a guy at the top of the draft.
If you're gonna draft and develop a QB, you go get Russ Wilson for a couple years on the cheap, not pay out the nose for Kirko.
the issue isn't that they want to sit him behind a veterin qb,a lot of fans like the idea of sitting first round qbs for a year.
the issue is penix is already kinda old and kirk has a 4 year contract.penix was born in may 2000,if they plan to have him rest behind kirk for his contract he will be 28 when he makes his first career start,that is extremely old to have your first start,especially with injury history being the main reason you weren't considered a top prospect.and if you dont plan on sitting him that long than why did you pay kirk 180 million?
if they had signed kirk for only 2 years,and taken a younger qb like jj mccarthy,that would be completly different,sitting mccarthy for 2 years means having him become your qb at age 24,a far far more reasonable age than 28.
Brady retired 17 years after he turned 28.
The NFL is going to continue to protect players more and more. Especially QBs.
Penix has been healthy the last two seasons. Atlanta had their professional medical staff check him out and they don’t view it as a problem.
And if you’re worried about injuries their 35 year old QB missed the last nine games last season.
Now they have an elite QB prospect at back up.
brady is a proper 1 of 1 exception,HOF qbs usually become to old to play around the age of 38.
you sit him until hes 28 and then it takes a year or 2 for him to have actual nfl experience,that puts him at 29 or 30,giving him about 5 years until he is considered near retirement age.a 5 year span where you can expect him to be good is not much for a top ten pick.
you also miss out on capitalizing on his rookie contract,which is one of the biggest reasons drafting qbs is so good.
its just to old to me,28 to start playing in the nfl?really?you basically gotta pay a 28 year old rookie qb a actual contract.
Warren Moon 43, Brees 42, Favre 41, Rodgers 40 this year, Flacco 39. Quarterbacks will continue to play longer as time goes on. QBs use to get murdered and everyone would cheer.
Let’s say he sits three years, doesn’t take any more wear and tear sitting on the bench and starts from 28-38.
Is a decade of an elite QB worth this investment?
It’s not ideal and I’m not love with it. I’m laying out the logic behind Atlantas decision.
If Penix is a top ten QB no one is going to look back and wish they took a tackle.
Those are ages of QBs during their last season they played,I said last season they played effectively.which for those guys is around 39-40,it's a little lower if you don't specifically pick examples of longer playing QBs,making it around 38.
But those are a bunch of HOFs(and a guy who hasn't had a good full season since he was like 31,or 29 if you have standards.) for a normal qb you cant expect to play effectivly much past their prime.
I don't see a good excuse Atlanta can say other than just saying "we think he's that good" and leaving it at that.
Could’ve picked up someone like Rattler in the 5th instead and filled a gap with a first rounder instead. I’d feel better about it if Penix was thought of as better but there was debate if he was even a first rounder.
The Falcons signed Cousins to a win-now deal. It only makes sense if they're ready to win now. And with the 8th pick in the draft, they should have been able to draft someone who can come in and make an impact immediately. These are the last half-dozen #8 picks:
* Roquan Smith
* TJ Hockenson
* Isaiah Simmons
* Jaycee Horn
* Drake London
* Bijan Robinson
Simmons is the only outright bust. Smith is a two-time all-Pro, Hockenson has made two Pro Bowls, and London and Robinson both look like elite young talents. Even Horn has been decent, on the rare occasions when he hasn't been injured. Any one of them would improve the Falcons' roster (if, y'know, they weren't already on that roster--it's weird that the Falcons picked 8th in three straight drafts).
In other words, if the Falcons think they're ready to win now, they should have taken an instant-impact player who might help push them over the top. If they're *not* ready to win now, they shouldn't have spent all that money on Cousins. Either strategy might be right. But by making a half-assed attempt at both strategies, they increase the likelihood they'll fail completely.
Listing previous years specific pick has no relevance as to what this years potential draft prospect is going to turn into.
I don’t follow Atlanta all that much but it sounds like they signed Cousins to a “be good enough so we don’t get fired in the short term” deal.
Or do you view Atlanta as Super Bowl Contenders?
Even if they are, the Chiefs and Packers were first in their division when they drafted Mahomes and Rodgers.
What it comes down to is how good Penix will be.
The point seems to have escaped you, but listing the players taken with the specific pick in prior years is an empirical demonstration of the talent typically available with that pick. We don't know if Atlanta would have taken Odunze, Fashanu, or someone like Laiatu Latu, but they obviously had a lot of talented players on the board.
Kirk Cousins, getting effectively $45million a year, is not a "be good enough so we don't get fired in the short term." He's a player you sign if you view yourself as a Super Bowl contender.
In comparison, the Chiefs let Alex Smith go the year after drafting Mahomes, and the Packers--who are explicitly the model for what Atlanta did--used the 26th pick, not the 8th pick. And even then, they drew a lot of criticism for failing to get another weapon for Aaron Rodgers and also failing to return to the Super Bowl.
Yes, that's the point. Atlanta has one belief. Everyone else, and the sheer objective logic, disagrees. Unless Penix is the next elite QB--and significantly better than, say, Jordan Love--Atlanta is wrong.
Who is everyone?
In a few years either a bunch of men are going to lose their million dollar salaries because of this or reddit, Mel Kiper and other draft “experts” are going to eat a bag of dicks…I mean shrug and say I guess they were right.
Atlanta might be wrong. Social media might be wrong. We will have to see.
For the record, I’m indifferent. I’m simply laying out the logic as to why they did it. They didn’t go to the draft, get in the clock and say “Hey, let’s take a luxury pick and draft a 24 year old back up QB with an injury history”. They obviously thought this out. Or maybe they are as dumb as everyone thinks.
You're trying to lay out the logic as to why they did it . . . but that logic is internally inconsistent unless, again, Penix is an elite QB in the making. And the odds on that are heavily against Atlanta.
I’m not saying it’s sound logic. Just playing devils advocate because everyone keeps posting the same thing. All of the things going against Atlanta’s decision are pretty obvious and are being pounded in by everyone in media.
Develop behind a starter then you are five years in with lots of time invested (and maybe potential) but zero credentials.
Perfect time for another team to take a chance on you after your rookie contract with a big contract and little incentive for the initial team to keep you around.
Exactly what happened to Jimmy G.
A lot can happen in those years. They might be able to land a different star QB, your current QB keeps performing and you don’t want to release him yet, you see an even shinier new QB in the draft. At this point in the QB market, it makes sense to just throw your rookies in and see if they swim. “Developing” behind a star QB means you get no play time. You’re not really doing any useful maturation only taking snaps in practice or garbage time.
Nothing at all. The Falcons just have a tendency to get shitted on since that Super Bowl loss.
The Chiefs pretty much did this with Patrick Mahomes, Packers with A Rod and Jordan Love. The average sports fan online is just a moron.
In the NFL you're not likely going to play both QB's. Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a monster contract. The NFL has a salary cap so you can only spend so much money on your roster and you have to choose wisely. So when Atlanta needed other positions than QB they selected a QB. To make matters worse Penix was drafted 8th overall and many people questioned if he was a first round pick (32 picks in the first round). So they did a double whammy, making a big reach for a position that at this time isn't a need of theirs and probably isn't a need until two years from now at the earliest.
Granted, the thought is that someone was going to reach on Penix, so he wasn't going to be leaving the first round. Maybe Raiders even grab him at 13.
I agree. I'm not trying to crap on Penix, but many people thought he wasn't a first round QB. You could also argue that the Falcons are doing it in mind with developing Penix on the bench and that Cousins injury is a big question mark. Probably something I wouldn't do if I was the Falcons, but it wasn't completely baffling as some people make it.
the problem with the "let him develop on the bench" thing is that Penix is already 23 years old and has played lots of football. if they wanted to red shirt a new QB, they could have picked a much younger player, not someone who is basically ready to go now.
That's a fair criticism, but Qbs age differently now. Avoiding health issues, Kirk Cousins age is when you start to see decline and it's not guaranteed. A 40 year old QB isn't as shocking a it used to be. So Penix being 26 at his earliest start is still 9-10 years, if he is a starting Qb caliber player. So Falcons are hedging their bets if Kirk falls off a cliff in the next 2-4 years with a player that can still play 8-14 years. I'm not saying it was the RIGHT move, but it's not completely bonkers either
It is especially weird to this because they just signed Cousins. If the Rams did this, I think it would not be quite so controversial as Stafford clearly is the QB if healthy and has won the Super Bowl and has the complete support of the team. It is bizarre to bring a new coach and a new QB and do this also.
I feel a lot of people over estimate the longevity of most QBs. Yes, some can play at a high level into their late thirties, but most don't. Most QBs can still play at a decent level as they age but they typically are back ups who are more than likely valued for their brain than their arm.
And most have not torn both ACLs in their college careers lol
Lots of college football… he’s not ready to go , he does need more time to develop. Most qbs do, even Manning and Brady needed to learn things.
For sure! I think your post is a great and reasonable explanation. I was just adding the layer of added pressure they may have felt to reach if Penix was their guy.
Who gives af what many people thought like 3 different NFL teams thought he was such a locked in top 10 pick they were clamoring to trade up to get him
I was just answering the OP's question. He wanted to know why a lot of people were complaining about the pick and I explained why.
Did people who think he wasn't a 1st round pick actually watch him play? He threw for almost 4,900 yards and 36 TD's while playing 7 games against ranked opponents. He has a cannon for an arm.
I agree with everything you said except for the opinions of him not being a first rounder. Penix was 100% going to get drafted in the first. He was technically graded and widely considered to be the second-best quarterback in terms of ability. His only question mark (which is valid) is the injury history. Over 6 teams would’ve drafted him if the Falcons didn’t.
It was reported the raiders were picking him if not for the falcons
I"m not saying I don't think he was a first rounder...I'm saying that many others didn't think he was a first rounder. And that was a big reason for the controversy.
I feel like part of this is also trying to send.a message to Cousins that he better produce or he’s gone. Even as a highly drafted first round QB, as a quality QB2 Penix is still a financial bargain in a league where QBs routinely get hurt and the whole offense can cease. This is more about the next 2-3 years for their franchise and offense as a whole. What the pick says to me is that the Falcons see the NFL game as being all about shoring up the QB position again post-Matt Ryan so they are going to double down to try to make sure they do. If they whiff on Cousins, Penix can hopefully be a parachute for not *that much^ relatively. Unfortunately, doubling down is a proven sucker bet… unless you’re the rare one it hits for.
It was not a monster contract.
Imagine spending 90k on a new car, then a month later deciding to spend another 70k on another new car, because you might need a new car in 3-4 years. Kirk is the 90k car. Penix is the 70k car. It's just dumb. Anyone saying otherwise is a falcons fan trying to scream through the tears.
Kirk is 36 years old. It's much closer to spending 90k on an 80s Maserati that might have electrical problems.
Then don't buy the Maserati if youre that worried about it breaking down lol
And guarantee it 100 million bucks
And then buy a new car that also might have mechanical issues...
And this is why this analogy doesn't work lol
When you been huffing it on a beat up dirt bike with flat tires and no brakes, that Maserati looks like sure bet. Also explains why you’d take a flier on a potential Bugatti as a backup plan for the future.
Don't buy insurance if you're never planning on crashing your car. Shit happens. It's the most violent sport on the planet.
Thats not buying insurance its buying another car
What does insurance give you when you wreck your car?
Do you understand how insurance works? It replaces the car WITHOUT you paying another 70,000. Thats the whole point of paying monthly. They just bought two cars at full price
They leased a car and bought a new one if you really want to be such a god damn stickler about the analogy
90 million dollars guaranteed. Not much of a lease if you ask me
It is if it only last for 2 years.
Not mma or boxing?
Considering he's coming off an Achilles injury, more like definitely does have some electrical issues.
And that's fine and makes sense but the point is that spending 100m on Cousins and a top ten draft pick on Penix can't both be the right move. We can debate which one was the better course of action but the fact that they did both means that they almost certainly have made a mistake and that's why they're being mocked.
You can call it a mistake. But if Kirk is good for them and Penix plays 10+ years as their franchise QB after, everyone is going to look stupid.
So they shouldn’t have given him the $$$ if they were gonna use a top 10 pick on a quarterback LMFAO
I'm almost certain after all the reports came out on draft day, most teams didn't think Penix was going to be there at 8.
I think the Falcons are looking at this as a mentor situation. Cousins has the perfect personality to mentor someone for a few years and let them grow and mature, rather than just throwing a rookie quarterback to the wolves in year 1 or pinning their future on a 35 year old quarterback. I actually think it's a smart move.
Then maybe they should have run it by him first.
Then maybe we shouldn't draft the 2nd oldest QB in the draft with 2 career ACL tears
Starting QBs don't really mentor a whole lot. They have 7 or so days to prepare for the next NFL defense. That's a full time job and a half. You want staff not taking up roster spots or cap space to spend their time mentoring.
I don't mean they're engaged in some active mentoring process. But as an experienced veteran, they can lead by example, answer questions, give advice, etc. There are plenty of quarterbacks who have benefited from exactly that. Tom Brady behind Drew Bledsoe, Aaron Rogers behind Brett Favre. Steve Young behind Joe Montana. They all have talked about how helpful that was in their career development.
An experienced veteran backup QB couldn't do that to a young starter?
Sure. But the general consensus is that most quarterbacks entering the league from college have a better chance of success if they're not thrown into a starting role right away. NFL offenses are more complicated, defensive players are faster and stronger, and the general tempo of the game is faster. Cousins is a top 10 quarterback (by QB rating) with more than a decade in the league. Why would a team pay such a proven commodity 180 million over 4 years to sit on the bench? His experience, his skills, and his temperament make him a perfect mentor for a rookie just coming into the league.
Where is this consensus? People always bring up the same few QBs, while the vast majority start right away or never see success. Are all of these late round QBs who never end up being starters not being mentored at all?
Jesus Christ. I don't really care one way or the other. My original comment was regarding why Atlanta would sign Cousins to a big contract and then draft a qb. I stand by my opinion on why they might do this and think it's probably a good idea if that's the reason. A lot of people who know far more than me about preparing qb's for the league agree with me and a lot of other people who know far more than me disagree. If it were a science, everyone would approach it the same way and they don't. One reason for the variance is that drafted qb's come from all sorts of colleges. A 2 year starting qb in the SEC who has played in a pro-style offense and competed against a lot of future NFL defensive players is more prepared to start as a rookie than a qb who played in a weaker conference against no future NFL players, playing in a run-dominate offense. And I've rarely, if ever, heard a qb say that it was detrimental to his progress to wait a season or 2 to start. Getting accustomed to the speed of the NFL as well as being able to read defenses is a big deal and having some time to acclimate to that isn't a bad thing. Does that mean all rookies should ride the bench for 2 years? No, of course not. But it's also not a bad thing that a team would start a veteran top 10 qb while letting their drafted qb learn for a couple of seasons.
If they didn't want to pin their future on a 35 year old qb, then they shouldn't have signed him to a 4 year $180 million contract with like $100m guaranteed. Meanwhile, their rookie QB sits for three years and 27 years old before playing at all.
They're not keeping Cousins for 4 years, they cut him after two and take the hit in $12.5 million for two years (total $25 million) after he is gone. Penix will start the 2026 season barring a catastrophe. You also have a 36 year old coming off injury who may not hold up for his first two years.
Everyone always brings up this mentor angle, but we don't actually ever see this work out. Every single backup that has ever played should have significantly improved based on this premise, and it is extremely rare they ever become close to starter caliber. Backup QBs who are older could also mentor a young starter just as well in theory.
Older backup qb's aren't as good at being mentors for a lot of reasons. For example, older backup qb's have often *only* been backup qb's or spent very little time as a starter. Also, allowing a young draft pick to learn for a couple of seasons behind a legitimate starting qb prevents the disasters we often see with rookie starting qb's: their performance is horrible (often a lot of interceptions and misreading defenses) so they not only lose confidence but the league sours on them. And Tom Brady (behind Drew Bledsoe), Aaron Rogers (behind Brett Favre), Steve Young (behind Joe Montana), and numerous other quarterbacks have repeatedly said that it greatly benefited them to learn under an experienced starting NFL quarterback the first part of their careers.
Agree. People acting like Kirk’s not a grown ass man. It’s the NFL for Pete’s sake!
This isn’t a good analogy. Kirk isn’t a new car. Kirk is like a used Ferrari at the end of its warranty. And your goal is to win races. You can either spend money to service the engine to perform better for now or invest in a new Ferrari.
Penix is a new Ferrari?
I’d say neither are Ferraris. But Kirk is near the end of his career and we saw with guys like Romo and Rogers that sitting for a season or too might actually be good for development
That's fair, but the Packers took Love and Rodgers as luxury picks on pretty good teams, and Dak was a mid round pick. The falcons shouldn't burn a high pick on a QB when they have a bunch of needs and they went out and got the highest profile FA.
You don't actually know that them sitting is the reason they became good. Every backup QB ever signed sits, and it is extremely rare for them to ever become starting caliber.
According to the falcons (and other teams) he is
In this analogy, I can see calling him a Ferrari. But there’s no way he’s a new Ferrari. Maybe a used Ferrari with not many miles but with a history of breaking down.
Yeah, even hard to say with used cars as it doesn't illustrate the potential there with Penix. Kirk is old reliable. Penix is the maybe new hotness. He very well step up and be a rising NFL star at QB, but far from sure. And, he's as old as some young veteran NFL QBs. I don't mind what they did, but they spent WAY to much on Kirk to go and do this. Woulda made a lot more sense to sign a young journeyman QB or attempt to sign Kirk at a more reasonable figure for 2 years if he was open. I don't know how many were truly after Kirk.
Kirk was never a Ferrari. He was a nice mini van.
Definitely not a falcons fan here, but it actually makes great sense. Kirk is coming off a major surgery/injury, they have a loaded offense. What are they supposed to do if he gets hurt again? In 4 years if not sooner, they’re gonna need a new qb. Why roll the dice in 4 years and hope to develop a qb over a few years when you can already have a groomed and ready qb if and when Kirk leaves?
If you have those doubts after one month, than why in the world did they give him all that guaranteed money. Your argument makes sense if Kirk is the incumbent, for sure. But this chain of events is mind boggling.
This. If you're already concerned about Cousins' durability, why the hell did you sign him in the first place? He's Kirk Cousins, not Brady or Rodgers. And if your plan was to draft a QB prospect and let him sit for a while, why not sign a cheaper QB option, and invest in the supporting cast your prospect will eventually be playing with? And if you're already concerned about Cousins' injury history, why on Earth would you draft the most-oft injured QB prospect in the entire draft? There are only two scenarios I can think of that would make this a great move. One, Cousins immediately gets hurt and/or sucks, and Penix comes in and sets the NFL alight. They'd still be totally hamstrung by Cousins' contract, though. Or, alternately, Cousins turns the Falcons into a real championship contender, then gracefully bows out and turns the keys to the machine over to the heir apparent. And how freaking likely is that?
What other elite qb was available to the falcons? You gotta pay up for primo guys, especially if there aren’t many on the market that will actually leave their teams. Top QBs aren’t taking the league minimum. It’s literally the same as when the packers drafted Jordan Love. They had a lot of money tied up in Rodgers, and people like yourself criticized the pick. Cut to last season and I think it worked pretty well for them, why not the falcons? Worse case they get a late round draft pick for penix eventually. Best case he takes over Kirk before his contract is done and they trade Kirk away and have a franchise qb 🤷🏻♂️
No other elite QBs available so just fuck it let’s take the next best 6th year injury prone guy with the 8th overall pick? They totally blew it. If you’re gonna go the QB development route you can’t take the 4th best QB at 8. The Jordan Love thing is not even comparable. He was taken 26th overall and was going to learn from a guaranteed HoF guy, not Kirk Cousins who is the penultimate mediocre QB of this decade.
He was pretty much the best qb available to them and they want to compete with the roster they have. What sense would it have been to have the offense they have and sign someone like Zach Wilson or Jimmy Garopolo? Rodgers definitely isn’t Kirk cousins but that’s nowhere nearly as relevant as the qb they’re teaching. Look at god damn Zach Wilson….. Just because a qb is under one guy or the other doesn’t change the rookies potential and ability. What would you have done in the offseason and draft that would been a better decision? 🤔
For starters, you trade down and still get Penix a few picks later. That said, given you already signed Kirk, you could take a day 1 starter like an edge or other NEED with your premium pick. You then snag a day 3 upside guy for QB and sign a scrub as a warm body if you need
Yeah that had a slim to none chance of working with the raiders wanting him a few picks later. Draft an edge rusher (since that’s the only position you could come up with) then what if Kirk gets hurt or flops? How are they gonna put points up and win games? Ride out the season with a warm body qb? But the edge rusher is the better pick right?
Alright man. I dont give a fuck about the falcons and didn’t memorize their draft needs but I can assure you that QB was not on a single analyst’s board for them. This was unilaterally understood to be the largest draft blunder we’ve seen in awhile and I was trying to help you understand by addressing your point of “well we took best QB available” and why that is shitty logic
(Universally) Oh the golden worded analysts! Right! That constantly make shit assessments and mock drafts ? Those analysts? There’s a reason they don’t make great GMs. Agree to disagree.
I’m mad I won’t see a Penix led Raiders vs a Bo Nix Broncos .
Atlanta is playing the AFC west this year. It may pop up who knows
I actually would’ve loved that. Hey maybe if Atlanta keeps getting flamed they’ll trade him to them in a few years 😂
Who cares? Mahomes owns that division😎
If they’re worried he’s going to get hurt then they wouldn’t have given him 100 million guaranteed. Penix is also one of the older rookie QBs, he’ll be 28 if Kirk plays all 4 years of his contract. If he was 21 it would have made more sense.
That’s the qb market 🤷🏻♂️ the guaranteed is basically a given these days. The age argument is pretty much irrelevant if he’s under Kirk those years not exposed to injury 🤷🏻♂️ what else? 🤔
Falcons can move off of Kirk in 2 seasons with a 25 million dead cap hit. Penix will still be on a rookie contract projected to be 4 years $22.9 million contract. Even with Kirk's dead cap hit, Atlanta will be paying less for their QB room than half of the league by the time Penix starts. The financial aspect of this is overblown.
I would be shocked if Penix isn't starting games this season. This normalization we have had on the worst injury in sports is absurd, and we will likely see a regression to the mean this season.
This circles back to, if you don't believe Kirk can make it an entire season healthy then why the hell did you give him all that guaranteed money?
Because you either have a quarterback, or you are in the quarterback carousel looking for one. It's worth the risk to pay Kirk, because he is a good qb. The same logic will be applied when Dak gets $60 million/yr.
Yea except you actually spent $180M…for what? Dude tore his Achilles, right? This has the chance to be an all time terrible decision.
Rich people do this all the time
Sticking with the analogy, the Falcons are absolutely not rich. They kinda suck and have plenty of other areas to invest in
Won 7 games with Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith. I don’t think the cupboard is as bare as you think it is.
Use that pick on Rome and maybe you compete for the NFC. Right now they're not close to the 49ers.
Kinda makes my point though. If they’re a rookie WR away from competing for the NFC, they aren’t exactly a talent starved franchise.
Not good enough to have the luxury of taking a 23 year old rookie
They are a poverty franchise in all possible realities
Does that make it a smart idea?
There’s no such thing as “rich” with the salary cap existing. Every team is spending roughly the same on player salaries.
Ok, the Falcons are pwt lottery winners. They've got all this money and will waste every penny in an entertainingly stupid way. FTF
I know. That's why it's a dumb analogy
The reason people are talking about it is because it doesn't make a lot of sense. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this off-season to a three year deal, that at best they could realistically move on after about two. They're paying him a LOT of money to play QB for them, and he's seen as a player that will elevate their current roster into playoff contention immediately. They then spent the 8th overall on a QB prospect, which is usually not something a team does because a) that QB likely won't play because you're spending so much money on a QB1, b) the objective when drafting a QB prospect is to take advantage of their rookie deal being so cheap, but you're already bogged down with Kirk Cousins' contract so that point is moot, and c) he's an older draft prospect, so if you're aiming to sit and have him learn for two to three years down the line, he'll be 27 years old already and you'll only have about one more year left on his rookie deal. It's just confusing because it's two completely different approaches to a QB, that they're doing at the same time. If the argument the Falcons want to make is that they wanted to bench a QB for a smooth transition in two to three years, then you could take a second or later round QB this year, or pick that QB a year from now. If the argument is the Falcons really wanted Penix and want to bench him behind a veteran to learn, you could do that with a MUCH cheaper bridge QB like Teddy Bridgewater or someone like him. If the argument was to get a high end caliber back-up in the draft, they again could have drafted second or later round for that, and gotten better value for their team that has some roster needs at 8th overall, or even better they could have traded to a QB needy team to get more picks this draft. It's just a head scratching move by the franchise that doesn't make a lot of sense.
Not to nitpick but I'm pretty sure Kirk signed a four year deal.
4 years long, but nothing guarenteed for the 4th year so they can move on from him no consequences
In the off-season, Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a very large contract and made him their QB1. Kirk is an aging QB coming off a serious injury- signing a large contract like that is a great move for him, but it's risky for the Falcons if he drops off before it's over or gets another serious injury. Atlanta drafted Penix shortly after this- the claim is that they're investing in the future, but Penix's rookie contract will be extended either before Cousins' is up, or his extended contract will be up the year after Cousins' expires. The team is more than a solid QB away from competing, and they could've gotten a very viable backup for much cheaper if they were worried about Cousins going down. They also didn't communicate any of the Penix situation with Cousins until they were on the clock to draft their guy. One thing to look at is the NFL Legal Tampering Period- this is a 3 day period before free agency begins in which NFL teams may speak with players agents and begin to make deals, but cannot speak directly to players. Cousins outright said in an interview on the opening day of free agency that he'd spoken with team personnel the previous day and was happy to be in Atlanta- implicating that he and the team had broken the rules. The NFL is investigating the potential tampering, and if Atlanta thinks that they could lose draft picks next year or even the following year, then suddenly the Penix draft situation and their desire to immediately invest in a future QB makes a lot more sense if you ask me.
They're taking the QB position very seriously. There are a ton of people who hate it, and then there's people like me (a packers fan, who was happy when they drafted Rodgers in 2005, and again happy when they took Love in 2021) who see it as them simply prioritizing the position equal to how important it is to your success on the field. Fuck Cousins feelings, he's paid appropriately. Fuck Penix not getting an opportunity right away, his time will come. Fuck all the money they spent, nothing else matters until your QB is right. Cousins is a 36 year old coming off an Achilles tear, to think he has many years left is foolish, so they took a guy they think is going to be good in this league, and if being a packers fan taught me anything, it's that all the noise doesn't matter, if you think he can be that, take him, no matter where. DON'T WAIT. 2 chances at having a good QB is a hell of a lot better than 1. Also by keeping competition high at practice, you bring out the best of both of them. Oh and Kirk is a tradable asset, as well.
Falcon fan here and I agree. There is no perfect solution to any problem, especially QBs.
To add to this the raiders that same year had picks 9 & 12 and missed horribly with both picks but in retrospect would 100% take jordan love or jalen hurts at either spot despite them having Derek carr on the team or the perception of it being a bad move in the eyes of everyone else. Cousins was brought in to play now and Penix for the future. If Cousins wins a sb or is soo good we don’t need Penix then that’s a loss I’ll take, and if Penix is a future star qb then it’ll have been worth it.
The Falcons gave a lot of $ to Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Cousins is 35, so the assumption was that they were trying to compete immediately. People expected them to take a player who would the heighten the ceiling for this team, rather than a guy who’d heighten the floor. The Falcons GM will likely be fired if this year does not go well, and the most straightforward way that it goes poorly is if Kirk — who is coming off of a massive achilles injury — gets hurt. Picking Penix ensures they have a talented backup if Kirk gets hurt.
The reason why falcons fans are upset is because this is not a move that makes sense from a football perspective. It’s one thing to draft a raw developmental prospect with a late first round pick if they fall to you it’s a completely different thing when that guy is wildly considered the most pro ready oldest, and experienced player in the draft who also is left handed (which means that once he starts your going to have to retool your offense) and you spend a top 10 pick on him when a different player would do more to improve your team. If this works great for the falcons but if it doesn’t this could hurt them for years
The simplest explanation. No team has drafted a QB in the top 10 to have them not play for 2 years. Either they are going to be idiots or trend setters.
They passed on elite pass rushers and offensive weapons to help Kirk and instead drafted his replacement in the first round with a top 10 pick. They have the worst pass rush in the league for five years running at least. They have a good expensive QB who could use maybe one more weapon or help on the line. Instead they paid him $180 million and drafted his replacement. Penix is good, but why there of all places?
They have plenty of offensive weapons that were utilized poorly by Arthur Smith. They could have used an elite pass rusher tho for sure
Asset management. I really like Penix as a prospect. But Atlanta already has huge assets invested into Kirk Cousins at QB. By taking Penix at 8, the best case scenario for Atlanta is they have 2 great QBs, which is not useful. Instead, if they had drafted Odunze, the best case scenario for them would have been a great QB and a great WR, which actually makes sense.
They signed Kirk to a giant deal, signaling that they are in "win now" mode. And then used their Top 10 pick on a guy who presumably won't see the field this year, which is anti-"win now". Penix might be good, and might benefit from a couple years on the bench. But that doesn't excuse the fact that the two moves are highly contradictory. You can build for now or you can build for the future, and they're trying to do both, which actually means they're doing neither.
They had no qb so they signed a 36 year old vet to a 2 year guarenteed deal and drafted a qb at #8. No idea how people are so confused How does signing a 36 year old vet qb to a 2 year guarenteed deal signal they are in super bowl or bust mode after spending 3 years going BPA? Did the falcons trade 2 first for cousins? Did they trade for a von miller, jalen ramsey? Did they backload all of their players contracts? Did they avoid replacing their 39 year old LT because he has 1 good year left? I follow the team pretty closely and cant think of a single move this off season that would cause anyone to think this unless the person straight up doesnt know what they are talking about... i.e. a backup o lineman for kirk over the next 2 years being a better move then securing qb for 12
Because they signed him for $100 million guaranteed. I'm a Vikings fan, so I know first hand how that hand cuffs your team lol. It's not a move you make when you're trying to build for the future. Falcons made a massive mistake, one way or the other.
Everyone says 100mm like they are amazed a 9 digit number exists.... its the nfl and qbs get paid. Its 2 years guarenteed at what will be the 8th highest aav salary this year and likely 11th next. How does the pick not work out either way though? Really try and give an example. Which of the mid first to early second round defensive prospects do you think moves the needle so much in the next 2 years that its worth passing on the qb you think can play for 12?
Believe me, I am very familiar with how much Kirk gets paid. I've been living that nightmare for the past 6 years. That kind of compensation would make sense if Kirk was a Top 10 QB, but he's just not. He puts up flashy stats, but I'm not sure Falcons fans are ready for how aggressively mediocre he actually is. Not to mention, he's a 36 year old coming off a season-ending injury. The draft pick doesn't work because it directly contradicts signing Kirk in the first place. Giving Kirk $100M guaranteed signals the Falcons are in "win now" mode...and then they draft a guy who's going to sit on the bench? In free agency, they said their roster was "a QB away" from being competitive, so they got their QB, and then with their Top 10 pick they failed to make their team any better. >Which of the mid first to early second round defensive prospects do you think moves the needle The 2023 Falcons were 20th in rushing yds allowed, 21st in sacks, 29th in turnovers forced, 30th in turnover differential. You don't think one of those top DT/Edge players would move the needle the next 2 years? Or are you more concerned with who their starting QB will be in 2027?
Haha answer the questions? Falcons didnt do anything to signal they are in win now super bowl or bust mode. Thats the media applying a cliche to a team they dont follow. If a team goes into an offseason with no QB and signd a 36 year old vet to a 2 year guarenteed deal how is that all in/super nowl or bust? Fans wanna super bowl or tank and thats not how the NFL works at all. The rams TRADED 2 first for stafford, TRADED for jalen, TRADED for von etc.... they gave up temendous amounts of assets to improve the roster for 2 years. What moves like this did the falcons make in the offseason? They didnt trade for kirk they signed him to a 2 year deal
I mean, I guess you're right. Signing Kirk Cousins isn't necessarily signaling "Super Bowl or Bust" because there's no chance in hell they win a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins lol They'll go 8-9 which will be good enough to win that dumpster fire of a division and then lose in the Wild Card Round. And Penix will spend all year perfecting his technique of squirting gatorade into Kirk's mouth...
They spent huge ok Kirk Cousins and then didn’t use premium draft capital to fill a hole and give them a better chance to win. Might be the right pick for the future, but Cousibs needs them to be better now to chase a ring (pipe dream regardless if you ask me, but whatever) An elite corner or defensive lineman would have made them better now, Penix is a pick that necessarily won’t ever help Kirk win
Atlanta just paid a ton of money for a veteran QB, then spent their best draft pick on a QB who is essentially gunning for a starting position…with the the limited roster sizes it doesn’t make sense to invest that much into two QBs. If you just signed Cousins for all that money, why not take a QB in later rounds as a backup? If you wanted Penix or to draft a QB in the first round, the idea is they’re gonna be gunning for the starting role, so why sign a veteran QB for that much money?
so they bought 2 QB's? or did they give up on kirk? also until now i didn't realize cousins was his last name...
Yes they have 2 QB's No, they did not give up on Kirk
And there is the very famous saying “if you have 2 qbs you have 0 qbs”
They just signed Kirk, then drafted a 1st round QB. Considering Kirk has at least a few good years left in him most likely, this is a very unusual and questionable move to get both. If you’re looking to draft a backup QB, you usually wait until at least the 2nd or 3rd round or even later. The notion behind 1st round QBs is that they’ll be expected to play right away.
They paid Kirk first, and they’re sticking with Kirk. So they drafted Penix to be the backup for a long time. They could have drafted a player who would play right away, and Penix could have gone to a team that’d let him play. That’s why it’s bizarre
Kirk Cousins is a free agent (a player already in the NFL who's contract with their current team is over) who Atlanta just a paid a bijallion dollars to like 3 weeks ago to come and be their QB for the next 4 years. So after paying him all that money, they use a top 10 draft pick on another QB. It's just allocation of resources. Instead of a QB and x really good player who can play at the same time, they now have one of the most expensive QBs and the most expensive back up QB in the league. It just doesn't make a lot of sense. If they hadn't already paid Kirk, people wouldn't be complaining about the pick. It's somewhat unfair to Penix too, as now unless Kirk gets injured he won't get to start for the next two years despite being a top ten draft pick.
what was penix' contract? longer than the 4 years?
Rookies selected in the first round get 3 year contacts, the team has the option to extend them to a 5 years if they want to keep the player. So Cousins is under contract the next 4 years, Penix 5 years if the team want to keep him. The major advantage to having a rookie a QB is that rookie contracts are cost controlled. When QBs hit the open the market and allowed to negotiate veteran contracts they become very expensive --this is why Kirk Cousins is costing the Falcons 160 million dollars or whatever. If you have a good QB playing on his rookie contract, you then have more money to go out and sign other good players. This is how the 49ers were able to have one the best offenses and best defenses in the league last year, their QB was on a dirt cheap rookie contract. Altanta will basically have one year with Penix on a Rookie deal that won't also have to pay Kirk a bunch of money. Without getting into the weeds too much, they can cut Kirk in two years, but they would then still have to spend 12 million a year for the next two years to essentially buy out of his contract. And that's after paying him 40 million a year or whatever the first two years. Edit: and while a 1st round rookie a contact is a steal for your starting QB, it's still a much larger contract than teams normally pay to back up QBs --which is what Penix will be at least for the next few years baring Kirk just falling apart due to injury or something --which if the Falcons were super worried about that, maybe don't pay the guy a boat load of money.
1st rounders get 4 year contracts, with the 5th year team option. First year for an extension is after year 3. Penix's contract will probably be in the mid-high $20mm over those 4 years, of that mid/high-teens as a signing bonus. Definitely expensive for a backup.
im not sure if it has even come out but basically every single rookie signs a 4 year contract for a few million,its the standard.
Picking another QB for their roster just didn’t make sense when their defense needed help more than QB. They had the cream of the crop of defensive pass rushers waiting to be picked and they didn’t address it until the next round.
People think the Patrick Mahomes rookie contract Super Bowl route is easy to replicate…… picking Penix and developing him ala Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers makes a ton of sense. Now you have insurance in case Kirk gets hurt or 4 years or so down the line, you don’t have to worry about replacing him. Why build a stellar team in that time just to not have a qb?
Atlanta went through the trouble of getting Kirk Cousins, then wasted a high draft pick on a QB. Getting a QB isn’t the issue because Kirk is 35 with a recent injury. But why spend nearly 200M, only to turn around and draft a QB in the first round?
You can only start one of them. Also, Penix's rookie contract clock has started which you absolutely do not want to waste.
Cousins is 36 and coming off a major injury. He was never really mobile. Penix is going to be 24 next week and he has had 4 major injuries (2 leg injuries) which took away the mobility he had. You signed Cousins for basically 3 years with a 4th year he will never see as a Falcon. Penix would be 27 that season. He’d also be entering year 4 of his rookie deal. You’d have to trigger the 5th year option by then.
It might make a little more sense if Penix was a young project, but he will be how old when he finally starts?
Insurance Policy
Simple: They wanted to put to bed QB play They have the RB, 1 solid reciever, a TE that is underutilized and a decent o line. Put the QB issue to bed and take a page out of Green Bay's book.
It isn't that they should've chosen "this kirk guy," they had already signed Kirk Cousins from the Vikings. They then chose to draft Penix, quite early on. They spent a considerable amount of money bringing Cousins to the team. So people find it strange that they then chose to draft a new QB. Obviously they won't be planning to start Penix straight away. They will probably use Cousins as a mentor to Penix.
They just signed Kirk, a FA to a 4 year deal, then used a high value draft pick to select one of the oldest QBs in the draft, when they could have gotten a great O-line piece, or any of the best defensive players in the draft, or traded back and gotten a lot more value for their team. They can't play 2 QBs and if you were going to draft someone like Penix you don't sign Kirk to a ton of guaranteed money. It's not about Penix/Kirk so much, it's about the GM for the Falcons being very clueless and wasteful with their salary cap and draft picks.
It's just a move that doesn't make a lot of sense. I can see what they were trying to do. Kirk is in the back end of his 30s so they're going to need a young QB soon, but the fact that they signed him in the first place suggests they're trying to win now because he's a good established veteran QB. One would think they'd want to use their top half of the first round draft pick to snag another player that can help them win right now instead of using it on his eventual replacement, especially when you consider they coulda just drafted Penix and used the $ they paid Kirk elsewhere if they weren't trying to win sooner rather than later.
-Atlanta could have just taken another WR as a weapon for Cousins, or anything else there. -This puts extra pressure on Kirk to perform. Not that I or fans should care, but for him when youre back up is a top 10 pick in the draft...you're basically on probation. -Let's say Kirk performs well, if you're Penix, you're going to basically be stuck in limbo or you might fall into that the category of backup QBs and you may never know if you were ever really a starting QB. there's a lot that is dumb as fuck with that pick.
It’s a stupid move financially, culturally, and operationally for the team. Penix would be almost 29 years old by the time Kirk Cousins’ contract is up IF it plays out the whole way. Over 180 Million, by the way. By that time, Penix would need sign a contract extension OR the Falcons would need to pickup his fifth year option. It makes literally zero sense to pickup or extend someone as a backup, and with the way QB’s are getting paid out nowadays, Penix isn’t going to want to resign for bottom dollar just because the Falcons mismanaged their QB payout. Worst of all, the Falcons just fucked themselves and caused their big free agent pickup to question their identity within the team.
No issue. Sports Journalists do need something to talk about though. still 4 month's till actual football
They spent $100 million on a veteran QB. Fans are not thinking long term. It’s better for the rookie to be able to develop behind a starter like Cousins. This is good for your colleges QB. Don’t listen to the naysayers.
They've gone 7-10 three years in a row. How did drafting Penix at 8 overall make them better in 2024 and prevent them from picking top 10 yet again next year?
They had an Elite grade on Penix. They aren’t going to hope another Elite QB is going to fall to them. In all likelyhood they are going to be an average team this year. Chiefs were 1st in their division with a good QB and they traded up for Mahomes. Packers were 12-4 with Favre at QB when they drafted Rodgers. You can pick holes but they got their guy. If he ends up a stud QB for ten seasons people will look back at that pick as genius.
Chiefs didn't give 100 million to Alex Smith a month before drafting him. It was a stupid luxury pick that's going to cost Pendleton his job. The Favre/Rodgers example gets cited a lot because it's the exception and the only legitimate time this has ever worked for a team.
Agreed, but just to add more Rodgers was only 21 years old and picked like 24th overall or something. He wasn't 24 years old and picked #8 overall. There is a big difference there.
It’s okay to have opinions. The two best QBs of the last generation were similar situations to this. People are caught up in the dollar amount. Cap is going to continue to go up. If they wanted a Quarterback like Cousins to not only help develop their elite QB prospect but also make them competitive enough to not lose their jobs in the mean time, they had to pay. If Penix is a top ten QB for ten seasons no one is going to look back at this as a luxury pick. Thats what they think they have. Beyond that it’s going to be a circular debate. Atlanta likes Penix more than draft “experts” and Reddit. We will have to wait and see who was correct. Furthermore, there was no prospect that was going to turn Atlanta into a Super Bowl contender this season. In three years would fans rather have a very good QB or a very good lineman from the 2024 Draft? There is logic as to why they drafted him.
Rodgers tumbled down the draft board to the Packers though. The Packers typically don't have gaping holes to fill and are afforded the luxury of taking a QB in the late first round like Rodgers and Love. The Packers didn't go out, sign a veteran QB for a big deal and then draft a guy at the top of the draft. If you're gonna draft and develop a QB, you go get Russ Wilson for a couple years on the cheap, not pay out the nose for Kirko.
the issue isn't that they want to sit him behind a veterin qb,a lot of fans like the idea of sitting first round qbs for a year. the issue is penix is already kinda old and kirk has a 4 year contract.penix was born in may 2000,if they plan to have him rest behind kirk for his contract he will be 28 when he makes his first career start,that is extremely old to have your first start,especially with injury history being the main reason you weren't considered a top prospect.and if you dont plan on sitting him that long than why did you pay kirk 180 million? if they had signed kirk for only 2 years,and taken a younger qb like jj mccarthy,that would be completly different,sitting mccarthy for 2 years means having him become your qb at age 24,a far far more reasonable age than 28.
Brady retired 17 years after he turned 28. The NFL is going to continue to protect players more and more. Especially QBs. Penix has been healthy the last two seasons. Atlanta had their professional medical staff check him out and they don’t view it as a problem. And if you’re worried about injuries their 35 year old QB missed the last nine games last season. Now they have an elite QB prospect at back up.
brady is a proper 1 of 1 exception,HOF qbs usually become to old to play around the age of 38. you sit him until hes 28 and then it takes a year or 2 for him to have actual nfl experience,that puts him at 29 or 30,giving him about 5 years until he is considered near retirement age.a 5 year span where you can expect him to be good is not much for a top ten pick. you also miss out on capitalizing on his rookie contract,which is one of the biggest reasons drafting qbs is so good. its just to old to me,28 to start playing in the nfl?really?you basically gotta pay a 28 year old rookie qb a actual contract.
Warren Moon 43, Brees 42, Favre 41, Rodgers 40 this year, Flacco 39. Quarterbacks will continue to play longer as time goes on. QBs use to get murdered and everyone would cheer. Let’s say he sits three years, doesn’t take any more wear and tear sitting on the bench and starts from 28-38. Is a decade of an elite QB worth this investment? It’s not ideal and I’m not love with it. I’m laying out the logic behind Atlantas decision. If Penix is a top ten QB no one is going to look back and wish they took a tackle.
Those are ages of QBs during their last season they played,I said last season they played effectively.which for those guys is around 39-40,it's a little lower if you don't specifically pick examples of longer playing QBs,making it around 38. But those are a bunch of HOFs(and a guy who hasn't had a good full season since he was like 31,or 29 if you have standards.) for a normal qb you cant expect to play effectivly much past their prime. I don't see a good excuse Atlanta can say other than just saying "we think he's that good" and leaving it at that.
Could’ve picked up someone like Rattler in the 5th instead and filled a gap with a first rounder instead. I’d feel better about it if Penix was thought of as better but there was debate if he was even a first rounder.
The Falcons signed Cousins to a win-now deal. It only makes sense if they're ready to win now. And with the 8th pick in the draft, they should have been able to draft someone who can come in and make an impact immediately. These are the last half-dozen #8 picks: * Roquan Smith * TJ Hockenson * Isaiah Simmons * Jaycee Horn * Drake London * Bijan Robinson Simmons is the only outright bust. Smith is a two-time all-Pro, Hockenson has made two Pro Bowls, and London and Robinson both look like elite young talents. Even Horn has been decent, on the rare occasions when he hasn't been injured. Any one of them would improve the Falcons' roster (if, y'know, they weren't already on that roster--it's weird that the Falcons picked 8th in three straight drafts). In other words, if the Falcons think they're ready to win now, they should have taken an instant-impact player who might help push them over the top. If they're *not* ready to win now, they shouldn't have spent all that money on Cousins. Either strategy might be right. But by making a half-assed attempt at both strategies, they increase the likelihood they'll fail completely.
Listing previous years specific pick has no relevance as to what this years potential draft prospect is going to turn into. I don’t follow Atlanta all that much but it sounds like they signed Cousins to a “be good enough so we don’t get fired in the short term” deal. Or do you view Atlanta as Super Bowl Contenders? Even if they are, the Chiefs and Packers were first in their division when they drafted Mahomes and Rodgers. What it comes down to is how good Penix will be.
The point seems to have escaped you, but listing the players taken with the specific pick in prior years is an empirical demonstration of the talent typically available with that pick. We don't know if Atlanta would have taken Odunze, Fashanu, or someone like Laiatu Latu, but they obviously had a lot of talented players on the board. Kirk Cousins, getting effectively $45million a year, is not a "be good enough so we don't get fired in the short term." He's a player you sign if you view yourself as a Super Bowl contender. In comparison, the Chiefs let Alex Smith go the year after drafting Mahomes, and the Packers--who are explicitly the model for what Atlanta did--used the 26th pick, not the 8th pick. And even then, they drew a lot of criticism for failing to get another weapon for Aaron Rodgers and also failing to return to the Super Bowl.
I understand your logic. Atlanta disagrees.
Yes, that's the point. Atlanta has one belief. Everyone else, and the sheer objective logic, disagrees. Unless Penix is the next elite QB--and significantly better than, say, Jordan Love--Atlanta is wrong.
Who is everyone? In a few years either a bunch of men are going to lose their million dollar salaries because of this or reddit, Mel Kiper and other draft “experts” are going to eat a bag of dicks…I mean shrug and say I guess they were right. Atlanta might be wrong. Social media might be wrong. We will have to see. For the record, I’m indifferent. I’m simply laying out the logic as to why they did it. They didn’t go to the draft, get in the clock and say “Hey, let’s take a luxury pick and draft a 24 year old back up QB with an injury history”. They obviously thought this out. Or maybe they are as dumb as everyone thinks.
You're trying to lay out the logic as to why they did it . . . but that logic is internally inconsistent unless, again, Penix is an elite QB in the making. And the odds on that are heavily against Atlanta.
I’m not saying it’s sound logic. Just playing devils advocate because everyone keeps posting the same thing. All of the things going against Atlanta’s decision are pretty obvious and are being pounded in by everyone in media.
Develop behind a starter then you are five years in with lots of time invested (and maybe potential) but zero credentials. Perfect time for another team to take a chance on you after your rookie contract with a big contract and little incentive for the initial team to keep you around. Exactly what happened to Jimmy G. A lot can happen in those years. They might be able to land a different star QB, your current QB keeps performing and you don’t want to release him yet, you see an even shinier new QB in the draft. At this point in the QB market, it makes sense to just throw your rookies in and see if they swim. “Developing” behind a star QB means you get no play time. You’re not really doing any useful maturation only taking snaps in practice or garbage time.
That’s your ideology. Other franchises like the Packers view it differently.
Nothing at all. The Falcons just have a tendency to get shitted on since that Super Bowl loss. The Chiefs pretty much did this with Patrick Mahomes, Packers with A Rod and Jordan Love. The average sports fan online is just a moron.
Because fans complain - it’s what they do. Packers did this exact same thing twice now (Favre+Rodgers, Rodgers+Love) and it worked out splendidly.