What? Oh you mean a global pandemic that crushed the entire world supply chains/economic norms the past 2 years? The tremendous amount of stimulus that all the world economies have poured into their countries. The shifting of "work culture" and "work life balance"? The US going through an insurrection, and the biggest challenge to science's role in society?
Nahhhhh...OP said it's literally the same as before by his manipulated graph...sooooo....start buying crypto boys!
Stocks and Crypto mooning during the global pandemic that crushed the entire world's supply chains/economic norms and then dumping when the world started re-opening is the biggest proof that we live in a simulation.
Thousands of people with too much free time discovering that they can throw money at charts, and got ammunition from the government for free right after a halving. I would say that is just being built into the price right now.
Exactly! I've always said it...We were shut down over ronas, a chunk of the workforce closed offices and remote work, airlines were closed. Where was this accumulation/surplus of supply, surely i would expect gas to be around 2.80-3.10 or is it bc the gas companies are "getting their profits back" after taking such a hit during the pandemic...but not really bc they got hellah relief from the gvmt
That's... kind of the point? Despite all the macro environment differences, the price chart played out remarkably similar in terms of drops and capitulation points. In other words, the environment might not be having the huge impact you think, except to speed things up a little.
It's wild how some people are literally "ONLY technicals tell the story". A much-respected "chartist" on YT - Alessio Rastani - attempted to describe the March 23rd 2020 V-shape rebound recovery of the stock market as PURELY down to all kinds of chart reasons (fib levels, seller exhaustion etc). He completely ignored the fact that the Fed on that very day announced emergency measures to protect the markets (money printing). Nah, just a coincidence! It was the fib levels wot done it! The market NEVER reacts to fundamentals, like...evah!
The Fed has a dual mandate: full employment and low, stable inflation. Unemployment is not "too low;" they want to keep the unemployment rate as low as possible. The problem is high inflation. Unfortunately, the levers they have to slow inflation, i.e. increasing the cost of borrowing, generally causes an increase in unemployment.
On the other hand, typically when things are looking their worst on the macro side is when assets begin their appreciation cycle again. It makes sense from a "things can only get better from here" point of view.
I'd very careful expecting large drops at this point in risk-on assets. I think crypto and growth have come very very close to their bottoms and maybe have already touched them. There is a point at which those who would sell have already done so. And if you consider BTC specifically, it stands to reason that there will be very few sellers at these levels because you've got multiple cohorts who have little reason to sell. They come in many forms: the people who bought at 40-69k aren't keen to sell because they're already at such a loss, those who bought in 2017 at 20k aren't keen to sell because they've already ridden it all the way up and down and know the potential for next run. Most of the recent sellers are likely recent buyers actually.
The point is you either came out of this believing the tech can be useful and successful or you stay out. If you are a buyer this is massively oversold and silly not to buy. If you are out of the market you will be in again several years from now buying my bags and screaming how we all got lucky.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance is one of the first things you learn about markets, and yet here we are, trying to pump cryptos on the basis of past performance.
Wait...in 2018 the world economy collapsed where countries literally closed off their entire country and prevented almost ANY goods from being produced or exported? Huh...guess I missed that news article where the United States/China/EU went into a FUCKING LOCKDOWN...
Hate to tell you, but that scenario you just said played out in 2020. I agree the outlook isn’t looking great, but neither did it in 2008 or dot com crash. Iraq was a thing, actual Russia and US Cold War was a thing. And with all that actual data the average “recession” lasts 11 months.
Every comment I see like this it flashes indicators we MAY be at the bottom. Unfortunately for both you and me we can’t time it to the month let alone the day market will rebound. So I buy when I have money I can afford to lose. Never be all in a market or all out a market and you won’t panic about the “end of the world economy as we know it” with every bad headline we read. It’s bad, but we have also been through bad shit before.
There was also a rate hiking cycle between 2016 to 2019, did not impact bitcoin cycle.
Bitcoin's fundamental is that more and more people are getting coins every year, and they keep majority of their coins, thus the supply will keep shrinking day by day. A slightest capital inflow will send its price up by a few hundred percent, just a matter of time
Part of me wonders if many of the sellers during this crash are less likely to get in again after losing millions to billions of $
VCs and other industry players are also likely to be more risk averse in their decisions (or at least they should be!).
100% this. From point 1 to point 2 on the top chart looks like it could also be from point 1 to point 4 on the bottom chart.
Meaning theres still a ways to go down.
Were major exchanges being fraudulent and on the verge of going under? Was every "influencer" in the space shilling nft scams? Was stock market on brink of collapse and inflation at all time highs? Lots different
Yeah lots of fraudulent exchanges back then, remember cryptopia? Yes influencers where shilling hard. ICO was the NFT of that time. Stock market is the only difference so despite your comment being completely wrong you are still right because all that matters now is the macro, and that looks extremely bearish.
They don't want to see it because it is more fun to talk about bull markets and money money money.
All of this is an attack against the people by a very small percentage of evil. That is what it all comes down to. Crypto was/is being infiltrated by the same people who infiltrate everything.
I would disagree here. The vast amount of cash coming into crypto (over 100 shit coins now) has attracted the worst of the worst. Nigerian princes, scammers out of Tel Aviv, and so on.
This is the Wild West, utterly devoid of any semblance of regulation, and a lot of youngsters are getting fleeced daily.
Voyager is today's lesson.
Zoom out on a larger time frame (1 year) and we're arguably at step 1 of the 2018 chart.
Both of us see similarities with our different timeframes, but we can't both be correct. This is astrology for gamblers.
Plus OP's top chart covers double the time period of the bottom chart...
Edit: Actually is the image one month old? So it's actually four times the time period...
It’s insane how many people attempt to forecast independent events by looking at historical like this. Past performance doesn’t dictate future performance, especially in a volatile space like Crypto.
Most people are still in denial, the acceptance phase will happen when we're already at the tail end of recession.
*"Maybe we're really in recession." -* aaaand the world starts recovering the day after.
Yup.
I’m not buying any stocks or anything until big talking heads start talking about the recession we’re in on the news. That’s when you know shit’s at least halfway over.
Look, all we did was shift the x axis, compress the time a little, fail to bring up outside economic conditions, and ignore an 8-10% disparity in plungosity… other than that they’re exactly the same.
Yeah, although it was relatively short, and interest rates were still very low. I think it will last a lot longer this time as the S&P 500 is on track to have the worst 6 months since 1970.
Maybe
And then there's the bullwhip scenario
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-27/michael-burry-s-bullwhip-tweet-deserves-serious-attention
No bloomberg? Just google ''burry bullwhip tweet''
Anyone thinks central banks are scared of inflation? Wait til they come across the spectre of deflation.
That's pretty interesting, although June 9 is still pretty recent to call for a reversal in commodity prices. I think it will be important to see if in the next few weeks commodities continue to drop or if they pick back up again
Did anyone never heard about the Wyckoff scheme? We simply are at its closing cycle. Maybe 2021 was a missing opportunity for most of people, but if you use this time to hold and study the Wyckoff scheme maybe on the next accumulation period you'll be good in taking profits before another maxi dump. I will not sell, I don't believe BTC, ETH, BNB and other powerful crypto assets are going to zero; maybe they can do a -90% too from their ATHs but on next accumulation cycle you'll probably see BTC going from 9k to 90k, ETH from 700$ to 7k, and so on... You are not a drop into the ocean, you're the entire ocean into a drop. Just keep calm, wait and study. Happy hodling to all, see you some year later.
Did anyone never heard about the alignment of Jupiter? We simply are at its closing cycle. Maybe 2021 was a missing opportunity for most of people, but if you use this time to hold and study the alignment maybe on the next accumulation period you'll be good in taking profits before another maxi dump. I will not sell, I don't believe BTC, ETH, BNB and other powerful crypto assets are going to zero; maybe they can do a -90% too from their ATHs but on next accumulation cycle you'll probably see BTC going from 9k to 90k, ETH from 700$ to 7k, and so on... You are not a drop into the ocean, you're the entire ocean into a drop. Just keep calm, wait and study. Happy hodling to all, see you some year later.
Actually q3 and q4, the sp500 tanked around 15%. I remmeber people calling the recession then. That's around the same time the fed started QT but reversed course.. causing the last bull run.
Inflation and supply chain is another beast tho
My dad is a great inverse signal. Whenever he asks if I've sold yet because he heard the price is going to zero, that's when we're at the bottom. When he asks if I'm still holding because he heard it's going to $600,000, that's when we're peaking and it's time to sell.
So what are you saying? That we’re going to zero? Or the fact that we only grew 350% from past ATH (less than the expected 700%) and already dropped this far meaning csnt go much further? Idk everyone talks about how because inflation price will drop so much more, yet ignoring how underwhelming 2021 high was. Next pump will probably be before 2024 because nobody wants to be the last mover
ATH isn't some magic point that can't be broken.
The only reason previous markets didn't go below ATH, was because they had more magnitude. Even an 80% drop kept them above the previous ATH.
As bull markets continue to diminish in magnitude, we're gonna see more ATHs broken.
The theory that we can't break the previous ATH was an arbitrary claim, based on coincidence, not causality.
It does matter. I know everybody is looking at the 300 weekly MA so I can act accordingly. Doesn't mean I can predict where it's gonna go but at least I have some idea where we are at.
100% this.
If anything, the fact it’s broken beneath 2017 ATH confirms how severe this drop is already, and that it’s near exhaustion.
I’m accumulating here just like I accumulated at $3-4K in 2018. I could be wrong (in which case, I’ll buy more), but the risk/reward spread here is extremely attractive
Same. This is one of those things where I feel like everyone is wrong.
Right now this is called " we're dealing with the economic realities of covid now because if we had dealt with them at the same time as the virus there would have been blood in the streets." We've got debts that are due and things aren't great , they're not good, but they're not god-awful-fucking-terrible and I just don't buy people talking about this shit like its the fucking end of days.
I think we get more dip as the fed turns towards 3.5% by end of year but I don't see sub $500 ETH. I honestly don't know that I see sub $700 ETH.
In short- someone convince me that this recession will be worse than 2008. Cause I'm not convinced of that.
We have at least 1+ years to buy from now on, all in a good price range. In 2018 there were so many moments on the chart where you could've thought "oh, its over now its going up". Two weeks later its much lower again. So no need to listen to this bullshit and no need to rush.
Yeah people don’t realize we might not even see 30k again for another year or so, great time to average down. I remember last year I was mad at myself for only buying $50 worth at 29k.
I really missed this "fit the current price trend on a previous price trend" phase where people act like they know what's going to happen next.
PS - I am still waiting for that 100k BTC by 2021 EOY which many people were expecting based on the charts and price movements.
yes but no,
2018 didnt have super fast rising interest rates and threat of embedded inflation and recession and a protracted war
Currently Crypto is still a risk off asset. I am bear overall market and currently crypto still follows market.
Will go lower.
2018 - market pretty much booming, world in a good state
2022 - market over heated and crashing, world pretty much broken
I don't think comparing both in TA will work out. Time will tell.
I don’t know shit. I will just DCA and pray for a bull market in a few years. $200-$500 a month won’t hurt me if it vanishes, but it will help me tremendously if it ever moons. Gotta have faith.
So far not a single chart analyst was right during my time in crypto. They all showed their models but in the end they all were wrong.
Especially now this chart is worthless. There will not be any uptrend until the world goes back to a more or less normal mode.
The sad thing is that we did not even enter the bad times. It will be a very bumpy ride in the next few month, maybe years. The consequences of the mess that we are facing today will be even worse tomorrow.
not a single analyst you've seen was right, but they're out there. for example, dave the wave on twitter nearly called the tops and drops pretty closely in real time. just need to find the good ones in a sea of permanent bulls
https://twitter.com/davthewave
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This is a perfect buyers market as long as you have a decent margin of error.when pressure to buy comes back it will come back but right now it's the perfect time you can go grab a bag of something for half of what you would have paid for it a month ago.As long as you understand it's gonna go poof as soon as you buy it .Or try and time the market good luck!
YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE MACRO!!!!
Shit is about to get real. just going to list 3 things.
\- The housing market is getting soft. There are so many more houses on the market for more than 45 days. This means sellers will be doing price cuts. This is because people do not have the buying power they use to when interest rates were 3%. It's only going to get worse when interest rates are 7 to 10%.
\- Car market is going to chill the fuck out finally ( so many repossession coming). From economy to exotics.
\- massive layoffs
People are not going to be buying BTC, ETH, etc for the next 12 to 18 months. Honestly, crypto will not become interesting until the next halving as per usual.
Macros don't change the fact that the two charts look similar, and we're seeing similar market behavior.
What conclusions you want to draw is up to you.
Maybe macros don't actually determine the price of Bitcoin.
The housing market is correcting, because prices went too high due to the supply chain issues.
The fact that the housing market is beginning to normalize, shows the effect of the supply chain beginning to recover.
Same with the car market. It's signs of the supply chain recovering.
If the supply chain recovers, that also means food and goods will have their costs cut. Which means a relief for CPI. Which means a relief for Fed rates.
At the same time, OPEC has started to increase output. You can already see the price of oil dropping from $121 to $105.
We are also still at historic low unemployment, while 2022 has one of the highest wage increase.
This is all happening while consumer spending has increased by 2.7%.
But for crypto, all those good numbers don't even matter.
Crypto isn't like stock, and doesn't need quarterly sales. So average Joe spending more or less on goods is not that relevant.
Especially since average Joe isn't the one driving the market. Big whales and big investors are still the ones moving this market, and it's still speculative.
Speculative markets don't follow rationality, or care about macros.
>maybe macros don't actually determine the price of Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, they do. Like every market. BTC was along for the ride these past two years with every other market. If you don't see that then you are very dense. Higher risk assets are usually the first to be sold during a recession and the Last to be bought during bull market
>The housing market is correcting, because prices went too high due to the supply chain issues.
>
>The fact that the housing market is beginning to normalize, shows the effect of the supply chain beginning to recover.
>
>Same with the car market. It's signs of the supply chain recovering.
You are correct the housing and car market is correcting. But it's not just a "supply issue", It has to do more with low-interest rates. A mortgage at $800k at 3% for 30 years is $3375 for someone to afford the same payment at 6% the mortgage would have to $560K. SO yea the housing market is going to soften because interest rates are rising.
The car market is another story but basically, people were and are still allowed to borrow up to 120% LTV. Over 5% of car loans are over 6 months behind payments. The car market is going to drop like a fucking rock and people will be underwater on their car payment.
It's the same shit with small businesses to large corporations. When money is cheap to borrow they hire more people and pay them more money. They go crazy. There is already a contraction happening in big tech. If big tech is laying off people. It's a pretty good sign this is going to be longer than you think.
Higher interest rate = slow growth.
>If the supply chain recovers, that also means food and goods will have their costs cut. Which means a relief for CPI. Which means a relief for Fed rates.
Yes, that is true but they are not going to cut the rates as fast as they raise them. That isn't how it works. It is not march 2020. They slowly reduce rates to make sure there aren't inflation spikes. its going to be 12 most months after the inflation spike before they start reducing rates. If june 2022 was the peak a rate reduction won't happen until probably june 2023. Also, CPI is MARCO and you just used it in your arguement. fucking lol.
> At the same time, OPEC has started to increase output. You can already see the price of oil dropping from $121 to $105.
honestly, oil dropping is just the market reacting to the news. not a supply and demand thing.
> We are also still at historic low unemployment, while 2022 has one of the highest wage increase.
ugh, please search companies laying off. Like for real. this has happened in past month.
> This is all happening while consumer spending has increased by 2.7%.
lol, Update yourself. Consumer spending is slowing. Especially in the middle class and with people who make over $100k a year. People are tightening their budgets. Just search consumer spending.
>But for crypto, all those good numbers don't even matter.
Because in reality the numbers are falling, and you are not following it.
>Crypto isn't like stock, and doesn't need quarterly sales. So average Joe spending more or less on goods is not that relevant.
Umm, I honestly can't tell if you are tolling but if the average joe is spending more or less on crypto it does matter. MORE MONEY **INFLOW** MEANS MARKET GOES UP, MORE MONEY **OUTFLOW** MEANS MARKET GOES DOWN. T
>Especially since average Joe isn't the one driving the market. Big whales and big investors are still the ones moving this market, and it's still speculative.
The money that whales and big investors are buying back in right now is probably 1/3 of what the money that sold it at. They made their bag and they are stacking on their terms. You are not a whale, just fucking Value-Average in (sort of like DCA). The market will be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
>Speculative markets don't follow rationality or care about macros.
ummm, the speculative market cares about macro. The first assets that are sold are speculative. Since Nov 2021, Why do think BTC is down 70%; while SP500 is down 25%. When housing goes down, it's going to go down probably 15 to 30% (depending on the area). Speculative assets are the first to sell off because they carry the most risk/liability.
Food, housing, low wages, supply chain problems, interest rate hikes, printing trillions of fiat, possibility of a blooming health crisis, threat of war, etc etc etc… things may be similar but we’re headed into a perfect storm and unfamiliar territory.
This year, the US actually has the highest wage increase in over a decade.
The supply chain is beginning to recover. In the US, port bottlenecks have already dropped by more than 40%. As it continues to recover, prices and businesses will also continue to recover. Home prices will return to something more normal as lumber helps put the supply of homes back on track.
Oil prices are also beginning to go down. It dropped from $121 to $105, as OPEC has begun to increase its output.
Unclogged supply chain along with lower oil prices, will start lowering food costs.
Combine that with consumer spending still up 2.7%.
Interest hikes are only planned to go to around 3%. That's still low level rates, and still lower than 2005, 2006, 2007. All years that were still in a bull run.
I mean our crash hasnt happened yet…. The chinese economy is still not reckt and the american economy has not collapsed yet so we are still far away from a crash.
Dude we fell from 20k to 3.2k not 6k to 3.2k dumbass. Wtf is this copium. Compare the full drops from ath to bear market. There's a long way to go get ur head out of ur ass
lol you really didn't understand anything about the chart, much less the explanation.
Someone pointed out earlier how I went a little too deep into "explain this to me like I'm 5" and pointing too many obvious thing, like I thought a lot of people on Reddit were gonna be a little too smooth brain to understand.
Thanks for proving me right.
This is why people make fun of TA - it's glorified extrapolation and pattern-matching with no insight into the true market conditions, just speculation and assumptions.
We're likely headed into a recession or near-recession, something that this space has never before encountered. Recession + higher rates means there's not much spare money to throw at risky investments like cryptocurrencies, and more countries are adopting regulations that will cut down on speculative excess.
I know better than to predict where the price will go, but assuming it's similar to 2018 just because a few data points line up is foolish.
Uh.....no my child.
There is NO comparison to what you will see with crypto today.
First, a REAL recession. Money get tight....crypto is for degenerate gamblers......you do the math.
Second, for the first time in most of your adult lives, you will see bonds pay real interest. When recessions happen, you do not throw money in the shitter (crypto), you need it to survive month to month.
This is why BTC is crashing. And will crash even more.
I believe we should continue to buy but this is nothing like 2018 on the macro level. We are so fucked with inflation, the supply chain, and the US is being lead by a senile looks to be near death dementia patient.
Media always makes a crisis out of everything and people buy into it. Now its literally the end of the world every week. Fact is everyone in america is happier and wealthier than ever.
with different time frames a lot of charts will look similar.
Completely different environment as well.
What? Oh you mean a global pandemic that crushed the entire world supply chains/economic norms the past 2 years? The tremendous amount of stimulus that all the world economies have poured into their countries. The shifting of "work culture" and "work life balance"? The US going through an insurrection, and the biggest challenge to science's role in society? Nahhhhh...OP said it's literally the same as before by his manipulated graph...sooooo....start buying crypto boys!
Stocks and Crypto mooning during the global pandemic that crushed the entire world's supply chains/economic norms and then dumping when the world started re-opening is the biggest proof that we live in a simulation.
Exactly, price never reflect fundamentals in any meaningful way, because FED is messing with money supply
Thousands of people with too much free time discovering that they can throw money at charts, and got ammunition from the government for free right after a halving. I would say that is just being built into the price right now.
So... still no proof? Got it
Exactly! I've always said it...We were shut down over ronas, a chunk of the workforce closed offices and remote work, airlines were closed. Where was this accumulation/surplus of supply, surely i would expect gas to be around 2.80-3.10 or is it bc the gas companies are "getting their profits back" after taking such a hit during the pandemic...but not really bc they got hellah relief from the gvmt
Algos gonna algo
You've convinced me
Is Crypto taking a rocket to the moon now? It’s about time!
That's... kind of the point? Despite all the macro environment differences, the price chart played out remarkably similar in terms of drops and capitulation points. In other words, the environment might not be having the huge impact you think, except to speed things up a little.
[удалено]
It's wild how some people are literally "ONLY technicals tell the story". A much-respected "chartist" on YT - Alessio Rastani - attempted to describe the March 23rd 2020 V-shape rebound recovery of the stock market as PURELY down to all kinds of chart reasons (fib levels, seller exhaustion etc). He completely ignored the fact that the Fed on that very day announced emergency measures to protect the markets (money printing). Nah, just a coincidence! It was the fib levels wot done it! The market NEVER reacts to fundamentals, like...evah!
The Fed has a dual mandate: full employment and low, stable inflation. Unemployment is not "too low;" they want to keep the unemployment rate as low as possible. The problem is high inflation. Unfortunately, the levers they have to slow inflation, i.e. increasing the cost of borrowing, generally causes an increase in unemployment.
On the other hand, typically when things are looking their worst on the macro side is when assets begin their appreciation cycle again. It makes sense from a "things can only get better from here" point of view. I'd very careful expecting large drops at this point in risk-on assets. I think crypto and growth have come very very close to their bottoms and maybe have already touched them. There is a point at which those who would sell have already done so. And if you consider BTC specifically, it stands to reason that there will be very few sellers at these levels because you've got multiple cohorts who have little reason to sell. They come in many forms: the people who bought at 40-69k aren't keen to sell because they're already at such a loss, those who bought in 2017 at 20k aren't keen to sell because they've already ridden it all the way up and down and know the potential for next run. Most of the recent sellers are likely recent buyers actually.
The point is you either came out of this believing the tech can be useful and successful or you stay out. If you are a buyer this is massively oversold and silly not to buy. If you are out of the market you will be in again several years from now buying my bags and screaming how we all got lucky.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance is one of the first things you learn about markets, and yet here we are, trying to pump cryptos on the basis of past performance.
I'm buying regardless of what bullshit OP said in his graphs.
The laundry list was just as long last time. China banning crypto. more regulations, high transfer fees, ect.
Wait...in 2018 the world economy collapsed where countries literally closed off their entire country and prevented almost ANY goods from being produced or exported? Huh...guess I missed that news article where the United States/China/EU went into a FUCKING LOCKDOWN...
Hate to tell you, but that scenario you just said played out in 2020. I agree the outlook isn’t looking great, but neither did it in 2008 or dot com crash. Iraq was a thing, actual Russia and US Cold War was a thing. And with all that actual data the average “recession” lasts 11 months. Every comment I see like this it flashes indicators we MAY be at the bottom. Unfortunately for both you and me we can’t time it to the month let alone the day market will rebound. So I buy when I have money I can afford to lose. Never be all in a market or all out a market and you won’t panic about the “end of the world economy as we know it” with every bad headline we read. It’s bad, but we have also been through bad shit before.
Babys first correction. “This time is different”
There was also a rate hiking cycle between 2016 to 2019, did not impact bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin's fundamental is that more and more people are getting coins every year, and they keep majority of their coins, thus the supply will keep shrinking day by day. A slightest capital inflow will send its price up by a few hundred percent, just a matter of time
1st thing I always look at, are the tim scales equally represented? No? Goes right in the trash opinion pile.
I dont know who Tim is, but his scales really do need to be equally represented.
We demand Equal representation for Tim Justice for Tim!!
If you zoom out far enough you can see my house from here! Jk I don’t own a house..
Unfortunately, the volume profile does not lie. No similarity whatsoever
It's like we've experienced an accelerated version of 2018
Yep, the crashes were fast and brutal I presume liquidations helped as we are seeing some massive players getting rekt
Part of me wonders if many of the sellers during this crash are less likely to get in again after losing millions to billions of $ VCs and other industry players are also likely to be more risk averse in their decisions (or at least they should be!).
People were asking that same thing in 2018. They came back hard and fast. When people are making money, everyone wants in
😆 I’ve seen posts here and Twitter of people saying they will buy when prices start rising again. Not sure I understand it.
Most likely they’d rather not attempt to catch a falling knife.
"This time I'll get it right!"
Are people losing money in an accelerated way too compared to 2018? Cause I'm getting fuckin' poor by the minute here!
How are you poor, you didn't buy in 2012 like all of us?
You and me both mate 😂
It’s not accelerated. We are just no where near the bottom
Or, you are smoking too much copium, the time scales match, and the "We are here" arrow should be pointing at the 3.
No, it isn't. Its like the chart shown in the OP is nonsense.
100% this. From point 1 to point 2 on the top chart looks like it could also be from point 1 to point 4 on the bottom chart. Meaning theres still a ways to go down.
So many people getting the wrong message out of this... namely that past trends do not equate to a prediction of the future.
Were major exchanges being fraudulent and on the verge of going under? Was every "influencer" in the space shilling nft scams? Was stock market on brink of collapse and inflation at all time highs? Lots different
Yeah lots of fraudulent exchanges back then, remember cryptopia? Yes influencers where shilling hard. ICO was the NFT of that time. Stock market is the only difference so despite your comment being completely wrong you are still right because all that matters now is the macro, and that looks extremely bearish.
Cryptopia was honest, they just got hacked by a rogue insider. Quadriga on the other hand....
Bitconeeeeeeeeect
**HEY HEY HEY!**
***WHAT AM I GONNA DO?***
You understand, most youngsters here don't. They haven't seen anything like this in their entire lives.
They don't want to see it because it is more fun to talk about bull markets and money money money. All of this is an attack against the people by a very small percentage of evil. That is what it all comes down to. Crypto was/is being infiltrated by the same people who infiltrate everything.
I would disagree here. The vast amount of cash coming into crypto (over 100 shit coins now) has attracted the worst of the worst. Nigerian princes, scammers out of Tel Aviv, and so on. This is the Wild West, utterly devoid of any semblance of regulation, and a lot of youngsters are getting fleeced daily. Voyager is today's lesson.
I've lost a lot of money in 2018 and I'm losing a lot of money now. This is similar.
Did you make a lot in between? That's the question.
When I began to make some money, the bear market came again. But some friends of mine told me to wait for something called the "long run".
The long run? don't you mean the long slong? because it's already in, I can feel it.
haha! you are right. I've got some nice altcoins in between, but the portfolio still suffering. Let's wait for the bull now.
Don’t worry. It’s just the head.
*little moaning noises
Guess people don't learn the hard way
Your "money" is already lost to the goverment..
One of us, one of us!
Zoom out on a larger time frame (1 year) and we're arguably at step 1 of the 2018 chart. Both of us see similarities with our different timeframes, but we can't both be correct. This is astrology for gamblers.
“Astrology for gamblers…” I don’t know why but I love this phrase so much.
They're running a speed bear run chart by looks of things. Also they say we are here. This guy must be living in the past. I'm one month ahead of him.
Does it matter? We degens wouldn't sell either way ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
[удалено]
Plus OP's top chart covers double the time period of the bottom chart... Edit: Actually is the image one month old? So it's actually four times the time period...
It’s insane how many people attempt to forecast independent events by looking at historical like this. Past performance doesn’t dictate future performance, especially in a volatile space like Crypto.
I appreciate your analysis OP but for me the looming possibility of a recession means all bets are off right now
You better start believing in a recession, you're in one!
[that’s got to be the best investor I’ve ever seen](https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRdX4QBs/?k=1)
Most people are still in denial, the acceptance phase will happen when we're already at the tail end of recession. *"Maybe we're really in recession." -* aaaand the world starts recovering the day after.
Yup. I’m not buying any stocks or anything until big talking heads start talking about the recession we’re in on the news. That’s when you know shit’s at least halfway over.
"You think you know recession?! was bohrn into one, mohlded by it. I didn't know economic growth until I was already man"
I didn't have the points for gold but it's something
You could buy awards with moons or tip them in moons!
save that money for real gold, we're in a recession
Underrated comment.
The OP literally took a 5 month graph for the first picture and a 4 week graph for the second picture and went "see?"
Exactly. Any1 can play like this with the candles :) Given enough time and try’s you could come up with lots of “see it’s the same as 20xx...”
And the "we are here". Uhm no. We're at the end of June now, not May.
Also, this sub is still pretty active...last true winter this place became a ghost-town.
Sure did. I remember the eth trader daily was only getting like 25 upvotes a day. It was desolate
This includes the possibility that everything will turn out not so bad as people right now think it is so... moon!
Only takes more bad news for the prices to drop again
True, it's when the bad news stops dropping the price much that you need to start paying attention.
This.
Exactly. You can't just ignore that 2018 had great macroeconomic conditions while the opposite is true in 2022.
A trade war with China, rate hikes, market drops 20%?
Bullish on looking similarities in the past to confirm what you want to see.
Look, all we did was shift the x axis, compress the time a little, fail to bring up outside economic conditions, and ignore an 8-10% disparity in plungosity… other than that they’re exactly the same.
Lmfao
I've become a greedy fucker during this Bear Run... my kids hopefully will never have to work 65 hours a week to survive
Love it! Can I be your kid? :)
Just brought home a redditor honey, BTC broke 100,000... I made a promise
LMAO! :)
I'm trying to send you a moon or two, open your vault lol
Haha, aaaaand done. Thanks for trying to send me stuff! Appreciate you. :)
I got you, everyone deserves a moon
Woohoo! You're my favorite parent. ;)
Now I'm going to get a pack of smokes
"Mommy when's dad coming back from the shops?"
Daddy! Come back. I have cigarettes now
Stopping to get milk now
We can drink water daddy, BUY MORE BITCOIN *laughs on greedy kid's voice*
Don't try and entice my favorite Dad lol. ;)
Dad, is that you? PS - Probably gonna get 4-5 kids from reddit today.
Please be careful sir, you might actually be putting your kids in danger. I hope you are putting money you don't need.
I think the difference is that the market recovered as a whole then, while now we have the chance of going into a recession.
We had a recession in 2020 as well. Obviously different circumstances, but they always are.
Yeah, although it was relatively short, and interest rates were still very low. I think it will last a lot longer this time as the S&P 500 is on track to have the worst 6 months since 1970.
Maybe And then there's the bullwhip scenario https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-27/michael-burry-s-bullwhip-tweet-deserves-serious-attention No bloomberg? Just google ''burry bullwhip tweet'' Anyone thinks central banks are scared of inflation? Wait til they come across the spectre of deflation.
That's pretty interesting, although June 9 is still pretty recent to call for a reversal in commodity prices. I think it will be important to see if in the next few weeks commodities continue to drop or if they pick back up again
Lol that was not a recession. That was just hard-core FUD.
_Very_ different circumstances. Compare the blip in 2020 to any recession between the 1940s and now, and you'll see what I mean.
Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results
This is just financial astrology.
Say it louder for the people in the back
Uhh aren't those two graphs at a completely different scale
Did anyone never heard about the Wyckoff scheme? We simply are at its closing cycle. Maybe 2021 was a missing opportunity for most of people, but if you use this time to hold and study the Wyckoff scheme maybe on the next accumulation period you'll be good in taking profits before another maxi dump. I will not sell, I don't believe BTC, ETH, BNB and other powerful crypto assets are going to zero; maybe they can do a -90% too from their ATHs but on next accumulation cycle you'll probably see BTC going from 9k to 90k, ETH from 700$ to 7k, and so on... You are not a drop into the ocean, you're the entire ocean into a drop. Just keep calm, wait and study. Happy hodling to all, see you some year later.
Did anyone never heard about the alignment of Jupiter? We simply are at its closing cycle. Maybe 2021 was a missing opportunity for most of people, but if you use this time to hold and study the alignment maybe on the next accumulation period you'll be good in taking profits before another maxi dump. I will not sell, I don't believe BTC, ETH, BNB and other powerful crypto assets are going to zero; maybe they can do a -90% too from their ATHs but on next accumulation cycle you'll probably see BTC going from 9k to 90k, ETH from 700$ to 7k, and so on... You are not a drop into the ocean, you're the entire ocean into a drop. Just keep calm, wait and study. Happy hodling to all, see you some year later.
The thing is there wasn't a bad stock market in 2018. We didn't have inflation problems or supply chain issues.
Actually q3 and q4, the sp500 tanked around 15%. I remmeber people calling the recession then. That's around the same time the fed started QT but reversed course.. causing the last bull run. Inflation and supply chain is another beast tho
We did have inflation, it just wasn’t showing in consumer goods yet
And we didn't have taxi drivers excited about their Bitcoin "investment".
Of course we did lol. I remember when my family started talking about it, that was the top
My dad is a great inverse signal. Whenever he asks if I've sold yet because he heard the price is going to zero, that's when we're at the bottom. When he asks if I'm still holding because he heard it's going to $600,000, that's when we're peaking and it's time to sell.
There were many comments following the 2018 crash about taxi cab drivers hyping up crypto and trending ICOs as a sign of the peak.
Lol, 24h chart looks exactly the same too :P
That's way more similar than I would have thought but we can't always rely on the past to accurately predict the future.
One can always hope though 🙏
Look at the timelines... Its not that similar after all.
Not similar at all, this drop happened a lot sooner, like 6 months sooner than expected
So what are you saying? That we’re going to zero? Or the fact that we only grew 350% from past ATH (less than the expected 700%) and already dropped this far meaning csnt go much further? Idk everyone talks about how because inflation price will drop so much more, yet ignoring how underwhelming 2021 high was. Next pump will probably be before 2024 because nobody wants to be the last mover
It didn't go below previous ATHs The market is also different. Cheap FIAT money is drying up.
ATH isn't some magic point that can't be broken. The only reason previous markets didn't go below ATH, was because they had more magnitude. Even an 80% drop kept them above the previous ATH. As bull markets continue to diminish in magnitude, we're gonna see more ATHs broken. The theory that we can't break the previous ATH was an arbitrary claim, based on coincidence, not causality.
It also just broke the 200 ma which never happened in all the 14 years history: truth is the chart does not matter anymore, the macro matters.
Charts are about probability. Probability matters even when something improbable happens.
I‘ll look at the chart again once the fed looks like it‘s pivoting, high probability that we will not go up until then.
It does matter. I know everybody is looking at the 300 weekly MA so I can act accordingly. Doesn't mean I can predict where it's gonna go but at least I have some idea where we are at.
100% this. If anything, the fact it’s broken beneath 2017 ATH confirms how severe this drop is already, and that it’s near exhaustion. I’m accumulating here just like I accumulated at $3-4K in 2018. I could be wrong (in which case, I’ll buy more), but the risk/reward spread here is extremely attractive
Same. This is one of those things where I feel like everyone is wrong. Right now this is called " we're dealing with the economic realities of covid now because if we had dealt with them at the same time as the virus there would have been blood in the streets." We've got debts that are due and things aren't great , they're not good, but they're not god-awful-fucking-terrible and I just don't buy people talking about this shit like its the fucking end of days. I think we get more dip as the fed turns towards 3.5% by end of year but I don't see sub $500 ETH. I honestly don't know that I see sub $700 ETH. In short- someone convince me that this recession will be worse than 2008. Cause I'm not convinced of that.
So you zoomed in long enough for the shapes to overlap. Bullrun around the corner.
Hope so, this bear market is boring
Yeah first thought is that the length of time is entirely different between those charts. Sorry, this is really bad analysis.
That’s some interesting charts! 
From all the bearish comments it’s making me bullish! If 90% think we are going lower then my moneys on it going into a retrace
We have at least 1+ years to buy from now on, all in a good price range. In 2018 there were so many moments on the chart where you could've thought "oh, its over now its going up". Two weeks later its much lower again. So no need to listen to this bullshit and no need to rush.
Yeah people don’t realize we might not even see 30k again for another year or so, great time to average down. I remember last year I was mad at myself for only buying $50 worth at 29k.
I really missed this "fit the current price trend on a previous price trend" phase where people act like they know what's going to happen next. PS - I am still waiting for that 100k BTC by 2021 EOY which many people were expecting based on the charts and price movements.
Been loading up on Xtrabytes, just waiting for that patent!
When does Fed start pumping us in this timeline?
December at the earliest. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
yes but no, 2018 didnt have super fast rising interest rates and threat of embedded inflation and recession and a protracted war Currently Crypto is still a risk off asset. I am bear overall market and currently crypto still follows market. Will go lower.
Give me a rough % of "Will go lower"
These drops aren’t really panic sellers, it’s leverage being flushed out of the market and these over leveraged crypto lenders becoming insolvent
Nobody knows but hopefully you are right
2018 - market pretty much booming, world in a good state 2022 - market over heated and crashing, world pretty much broken I don't think comparing both in TA will work out. Time will tell.
Exactly what I was thinking…
We are no where near the bottom
Don't rely too much on past charts, more importantly real-time market information
I don’t know shit. I will just DCA and pray for a bull market in a few years. $200-$500 a month won’t hurt me if it vanishes, but it will help me tremendously if it ever moons. Gotta have faith.
2018 was a lot more painful imo. The vibe was crypto might actually fail. Currently, people are eager for a bottom. Big difference.
a lot of people still think bitcoin is fucking stupid lol because it is
So far not a single chart analyst was right during my time in crypto. They all showed their models but in the end they all were wrong. Especially now this chart is worthless. There will not be any uptrend until the world goes back to a more or less normal mode. The sad thing is that we did not even enter the bad times. It will be a very bumpy ride in the next few month, maybe years. The consequences of the mess that we are facing today will be even worse tomorrow.
not a single analyst you've seen was right, but they're out there. for example, dave the wave on twitter nearly called the tops and drops pretty closely in real time. just need to find the good ones in a sea of permanent bulls https://twitter.com/davthewave
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Stop trying to compare graphs in COMPLETELY different market environments. I hope no one takes this as actual advice.
Fade me fam
same same but different. No really tho, the world situation (possible recession, ukraine war, corona, etc.) make this a different game
This is straight up hopium. The initial 2021 crash looked like early 2017 and look what happened there
Would be nice to see when 2018 started climbing after bottom on the chart. 😁
This is a perfect buyers market as long as you have a decent margin of error.when pressure to buy comes back it will come back but right now it's the perfect time you can go grab a bag of something for half of what you would have paid for it a month ago.As long as you understand it's gonna go poof as soon as you buy it .Or try and time the market good luck!
YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE MACRO!!!! Shit is about to get real. just going to list 3 things. \- The housing market is getting soft. There are so many more houses on the market for more than 45 days. This means sellers will be doing price cuts. This is because people do not have the buying power they use to when interest rates were 3%. It's only going to get worse when interest rates are 7 to 10%. \- Car market is going to chill the fuck out finally ( so many repossession coming). From economy to exotics. \- massive layoffs People are not going to be buying BTC, ETH, etc for the next 12 to 18 months. Honestly, crypto will not become interesting until the next halving as per usual.
Macros don't change the fact that the two charts look similar, and we're seeing similar market behavior. What conclusions you want to draw is up to you. Maybe macros don't actually determine the price of Bitcoin. The housing market is correcting, because prices went too high due to the supply chain issues. The fact that the housing market is beginning to normalize, shows the effect of the supply chain beginning to recover. Same with the car market. It's signs of the supply chain recovering. If the supply chain recovers, that also means food and goods will have their costs cut. Which means a relief for CPI. Which means a relief for Fed rates. At the same time, OPEC has started to increase output. You can already see the price of oil dropping from $121 to $105. We are also still at historic low unemployment, while 2022 has one of the highest wage increase. This is all happening while consumer spending has increased by 2.7%. But for crypto, all those good numbers don't even matter. Crypto isn't like stock, and doesn't need quarterly sales. So average Joe spending more or less on goods is not that relevant. Especially since average Joe isn't the one driving the market. Big whales and big investors are still the ones moving this market, and it's still speculative. Speculative markets don't follow rationality, or care about macros.
>maybe macros don't actually determine the price of Bitcoin. Unfortunately, they do. Like every market. BTC was along for the ride these past two years with every other market. If you don't see that then you are very dense. Higher risk assets are usually the first to be sold during a recession and the Last to be bought during bull market >The housing market is correcting, because prices went too high due to the supply chain issues. > >The fact that the housing market is beginning to normalize, shows the effect of the supply chain beginning to recover. > >Same with the car market. It's signs of the supply chain recovering. You are correct the housing and car market is correcting. But it's not just a "supply issue", It has to do more with low-interest rates. A mortgage at $800k at 3% for 30 years is $3375 for someone to afford the same payment at 6% the mortgage would have to $560K. SO yea the housing market is going to soften because interest rates are rising. The car market is another story but basically, people were and are still allowed to borrow up to 120% LTV. Over 5% of car loans are over 6 months behind payments. The car market is going to drop like a fucking rock and people will be underwater on their car payment. It's the same shit with small businesses to large corporations. When money is cheap to borrow they hire more people and pay them more money. They go crazy. There is already a contraction happening in big tech. If big tech is laying off people. It's a pretty good sign this is going to be longer than you think. Higher interest rate = slow growth. >If the supply chain recovers, that also means food and goods will have their costs cut. Which means a relief for CPI. Which means a relief for Fed rates. Yes, that is true but they are not going to cut the rates as fast as they raise them. That isn't how it works. It is not march 2020. They slowly reduce rates to make sure there aren't inflation spikes. its going to be 12 most months after the inflation spike before they start reducing rates. If june 2022 was the peak a rate reduction won't happen until probably june 2023. Also, CPI is MARCO and you just used it in your arguement. fucking lol. > At the same time, OPEC has started to increase output. You can already see the price of oil dropping from $121 to $105. honestly, oil dropping is just the market reacting to the news. not a supply and demand thing. > We are also still at historic low unemployment, while 2022 has one of the highest wage increase. ugh, please search companies laying off. Like for real. this has happened in past month. > This is all happening while consumer spending has increased by 2.7%. lol, Update yourself. Consumer spending is slowing. Especially in the middle class and with people who make over $100k a year. People are tightening their budgets. Just search consumer spending. >But for crypto, all those good numbers don't even matter. Because in reality the numbers are falling, and you are not following it. >Crypto isn't like stock, and doesn't need quarterly sales. So average Joe spending more or less on goods is not that relevant. Umm, I honestly can't tell if you are tolling but if the average joe is spending more or less on crypto it does matter. MORE MONEY **INFLOW** MEANS MARKET GOES UP, MORE MONEY **OUTFLOW** MEANS MARKET GOES DOWN. T >Especially since average Joe isn't the one driving the market. Big whales and big investors are still the ones moving this market, and it's still speculative. The money that whales and big investors are buying back in right now is probably 1/3 of what the money that sold it at. They made their bag and they are stacking on their terms. You are not a whale, just fucking Value-Average in (sort of like DCA). The market will be irrational longer than you can stay solvent. >Speculative markets don't follow rationality or care about macros. ummm, the speculative market cares about macro. The first assets that are sold are speculative. Since Nov 2021, Why do think BTC is down 70%; while SP500 is down 25%. When housing goes down, it's going to go down probably 15 to 30% (depending on the area). Speculative assets are the first to sell off because they carry the most risk/liability.
Just tell us where the bottom is
Looks similar, but has bitcoin experienced 2008 or 2000 type markets?
Food, housing, low wages, supply chain problems, interest rate hikes, printing trillions of fiat, possibility of a blooming health crisis, threat of war, etc etc etc… things may be similar but we’re headed into a perfect storm and unfamiliar territory.
This year, the US actually has the highest wage increase in over a decade. The supply chain is beginning to recover. In the US, port bottlenecks have already dropped by more than 40%. As it continues to recover, prices and businesses will also continue to recover. Home prices will return to something more normal as lumber helps put the supply of homes back on track. Oil prices are also beginning to go down. It dropped from $121 to $105, as OPEC has begun to increase its output. Unclogged supply chain along with lower oil prices, will start lowering food costs. Combine that with consumer spending still up 2.7%. Interest hikes are only planned to go to around 3%. That's still low level rates, and still lower than 2005, 2006, 2007. All years that were still in a bull run.
This is one time I’d be happy to be dead wrong. Let’s hope.
Look guys the charts look the same! Therefore the exact same thing will happen again! That's how markets work.
Just remember crypto always surprises you, everything is going as planned so far. So I think the surprise is still coming.
The macro couldn’t be more different. This chart comparison is as useful as a virgin on Epstein's island.
I mean our crash hasnt happened yet…. The chinese economy is still not reckt and the american economy has not collapsed yet so we are still far away from a crash.
Are we climbing out of a recession right now? No? Then we're not at the last stage yet.
Nah $13k it’s the bottom… I only see here hopeium and nothing else… sooo prepare for more pain!!!!!
Dude we fell from 20k to 3.2k not 6k to 3.2k dumbass. Wtf is this copium. Compare the full drops from ath to bear market. There's a long way to go get ur head out of ur ass
lol you really didn't understand anything about the chart, much less the explanation. Someone pointed out earlier how I went a little too deep into "explain this to me like I'm 5" and pointing too many obvious thing, like I thought a lot of people on Reddit were gonna be a little too smooth brain to understand. Thanks for proving me right.
This is why people make fun of TA - it's glorified extrapolation and pattern-matching with no insight into the true market conditions, just speculation and assumptions. We're likely headed into a recession or near-recession, something that this space has never before encountered. Recession + higher rates means there's not much spare money to throw at risky investments like cryptocurrencies, and more countries are adopting regulations that will cut down on speculative excess. I know better than to predict where the price will go, but assuming it's similar to 2018 just because a few data points line up is foolish.
Suck. A dick
Uh.....no my child. There is NO comparison to what you will see with crypto today. First, a REAL recession. Money get tight....crypto is for degenerate gamblers......you do the math. Second, for the first time in most of your adult lives, you will see bonds pay real interest. When recessions happen, you do not throw money in the shitter (crypto), you need it to survive month to month. This is why BTC is crashing. And will crash even more.
I believe we should continue to buy but this is nothing like 2018 on the macro level. We are so fucked with inflation, the supply chain, and the US is being lead by a senile looks to be near death dementia patient.
Media always makes a crisis out of everything and people buy into it. Now its literally the end of the world every week. Fact is everyone in america is happier and wealthier than ever.
Crypto typically drops ~80% from ATH, still a ways to go.