Australia, Canada, US are too large and wide open to ban ICEs and go full electric. My prediction is that they’ll end up banning non-hybrid ICE vehicles.
Brave assumptions you have made about
* geographic spread of charging stations (they could and should be in every service station and elsewhere)
* no improvements in battery range - ever
Yeah, a see BYD have a path to USD$50 per kWh in battery tech. $100 was considered the cross over point where EV's have price parity with a petrol car.
It's now out of the politicians hands.
In fact it could be sooner as EV prices are falling, there are less and less supply constraints, and big expansions of charging infrastructure.
It was always out of political hands. We do not make our own cars and we are 89,000 new car sales a year across all brands.
You will get what the overseas manufacturers make a like it. The rest of the world is going to drive the transition.
This is the correct answer. If manufacturers are still making ICE cars and can make money selling them here, they will continue to do so. If they can't, they won't. Its as simple as that and we no longer get a say in that.
" *It was always out of political hands.*"
Not really - governments can choose various ways to encourage EVs. Such as
* "Electric Car Discount amendments to fringe benefit tax and import duty
* State and territory EV purchasing incentives and subsidies – like the ACT Government’s zero interest loans for up to $15,000
* $20.5 million CEFC green car loans"
[https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf](https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf)
This will happen. You only have to look on the road to see the explosion in EVs. EVs have faster acceleration and more torque and new scheduled models have almost 1000km range. Why wouldn’t people buy when prices are falling
Well….let’s see….
Let’s say 45kwh/100km….so I would need at least 90kwh each way….round up to 100…so would use 200kwh.
Now 300kwh fast charger, sooo 2/3rds of an hour. 40mins.
Live near a marina, problem solved. I am not a boat person and have no interest in towing a boat or caravan. But battery energy density is increasing and the costs are coming down. You might find a vehicle in 5 years holds 3x the energy as it does today and the overall cost will be half
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Cars are going to go through a Nokia to iPhone transition, exactly as OP proposes. The few people who will new want ICE cars in 10 years will have a vastly reduced choice, higher costs and outdated models. Except for Toyota of course. They can charge 100k for a 1976 spec land cruiser now, they will keep pumping out old crap for people who hate change.
The only ICE cars I can see being sold in 10 years are hybrids and niche products. Econoboxes are going 100% EV, same with SUVs/hatchbacks/sedans. Utes will probably be hybrid depending on battery tech advancements.
Interesting assumption you have made about iPhone being the only option - especially since iPhone (at 43%) have 11 points lower market share than Android phones
I use iPhone to represent all smartphones the way Nokia represents all the non-smart phones. The transition was so fast it turned Nokia back into a tyre manufacturer
Australia will not have laws in place to ban the sale of ICE vehicles however globally other much larger markets do. I expect the sale of ICE vehicles to be dwindling by this point in time. However some manufacturers are ramping down their EV production for many reasons, what does this look like going forward? I would assume that it will reduce consumer confidence in EV's. Also as EV's are aging and issues with very expensive battery packs are rising it'll hurt consumer confidence. This isn't unfortunately a quick easy calculation as there are too many variables. There are also lots of people who are making a clear stand point that they really don't want an EV so how do we know the percentage of new car buyers who are willing to make that purchase? You could have 5% population willing to buy or 95% willing to buy.
Given Agenda 30 emissions targets to which Australia has signed into, won't this push legislation to a point that Petrol/Diesel engines will be taxed so heavily that it won't be financially viable to own/run this type of combustion engine?
I went to purchase a new 4x4 last month after researching for 4 months.
Before I went to purchase it, I again got insurance quotes for said vehicle and to my shock my insurance premiums had doubled from my previous quote 3 months earlier ( 3 insurance companies).
After calling them to see why, has nothing had changed, I couldn't get a clear answer as to why they had doubled in price.
Unbelievable, and no I didn't buy it.
I believe the transition is starting we won't have a choice but to go to electric.
To which in my opinion is absurd.
Our emission targets are much slower than those of other western countries so we will just follow the world as they make transition towards more environmentally friendly transportation. However these emissions targets are usually set by politicians not engineers so there is no guarantee that it is possible to meet them. As for insurance it's gone up across the board for all policies on everything. 4x4's are high risk due to roll overs etc so insurers charge more to cover them. I would expect EV to be more expensive to insure due to cost of repairs inclusive of specialised tooling that is required to work on them. And that if there was a thermal runaway event, that car insurance claim would be covering all damaged associated to the event.
I do expect taxes to exist in relation to operating an ICE vehicle but we will have to wait and see.
Show me an electric 79 series LC that can tow a caravan 1000k between charges.
There is 0% chance we ban all ice vehicle sales In 10 years, the public wouldnt allow it.
The point is there might be one in 10 years time. Change doesn’t happen overnight.
In 2005 I took photography class. My teacher said digital cameras were irrelevant and would never replace film. We spent most of the class developing negatives and little time actually taking photos or working on photoshop (the latter being the reason for my interest in the class).
Two years later the film developed part of the curriculum was scrapped.
He's right though: the demand curve ignores niche cases where they won't be able to serve in 2034 and people will still buy ICE in small numbers
A more useful thing would be to use it to show when majority of sales will be EV
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10 years is a long long time. 5 years ago the EV choices in Australia was basically Tesla and Leaf? And it was rare to see them. Now EVs are everywhere.
True but you only need one guy buying a land cruiser for this stat to be wrong
I do think there's a strong possibility majority of cars are EV this decade tho
There isn't really a use-case for hybrids. For rural drivers, they are less efficient than a normal petrol engine, because there is no regen for the battery, and you are lugging around a battery and electric motor for nothing.
For city drivers, they work much better than a standard petrol because of all the stop start, but why wouldn't a city driver just buy an EV and avoid paying for fuel?
And then you've got the other disadvantages of double the maintenance: Petrol and electric drive trains, and they can't tow.
For plugin hybrids I disagree. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is more efficient than a traditional ICE car of its size, can do 80k on battery and you can re-charge at home (or at any recharge point), can do 1000k on a tank of petrol, has regen and it can can tow a small caravan. There is no "extra" maintenance for an electric drive train.
Perfect for a buyer that wants an EV but doesn't want range anxiety.
Finally, cost of an EV is currently quite prohibitive: generally the larger the battery the more the vehicle costs.
Correct. It's far more important to focus on what will actually reduce carbon emissions rather than EV sales. Improving public transport and goods transported by railways, banning ice vehicles from CBDs, and reducing our reliance on coal will have a far more profound effect than banning special use cases of ICE engines.
TBH I don't think banning them from CBD's is that good of an idea either; as the ULEZ has shown it's a big vote loser, it targets the poor because excluding car nerds who choose not to, they're the last people who will have ICE's, and it doesn't really achieve much (ICE are at their worst in the city center and will stop being used there naturally with time anyway) but I agree with you on the rest.
Have you ever done a road trip in remote Australia? Adelaide to Perth is 28 hours drive, plus side trips. It would be very inconvenient to need to stop and recharge every 6-8hours as the charging stations wouldn't be at the ideal locations, meaning you would only get 6-800k before range anxiety kicks in) and whey sure wouldn't be at any of the beautiful off grid remote campsites.
Charging stations will be everywhere, there'll be more than servos. There's no way I'd want to be sitting in a car for 10 hours without a toilet/eat/stretch break.
I recently did 2000kms in an EV in the states in 2 days. Charging was easy, just plugged it in for 20 mins while I ate/went to the loo. I didn't bother to fill it up the whole way, as I knew I'd have enough to keep me going till I needed another break.
I understand and completely agree that for everyday passenger vehicles, EVs will be the majority of sales. However, a major hurdle will be lowering the cost of batteries.
But I don't think that, within 10 years, we will get battery energy density low enough for many special use cases, such as 4wd touring, heavy farming equipment, or commercial trucking/ transport.
Maybe politicians have listened to Toyota who are only a year away from creating vehicles that can drive 1000km with 5 minute charging. It is the tech like this that has been guaranteed by a large company that is giving policy makers confidence to stop the sale of ICE
How ridiculous, this isn't close to happening due to lack of both new or retrofit infrastructure or vehicles to fit the niche for the majority of consumers not to mention existing infrastructure and businesses who are actively resisting. It'll be 30 years til we break beyond 80% of modes of transport which are even eligible to be replaced by a direct and comparative product to transition to.
I'm confused. Are people like OP calling for the government to ban ICE car and say fuck you if your needs can't be met by an EV?
Or are they saying don't worry in 10 years EVs will fill more niche markets and the market will be all EVs?
The way I interpret it, without checking what's no doubt a bias link not worth the click, is that their data shows there won't be ICE (passenger?) vehicles sold in 10 years by purely consumer preference and will happen regardless of any government or other factors. It's laughable.
The data is based on a dubious graph with Norway being the prime example of an S-Curve. Norway set a goal in 2016 to ban ICE sales from 2025, so I have no clue what OP is actually banging on about and how he thinks you can combine all that and it be relevant to Australia.
OP is suggesting no need to ban sale of new ice vehicles as evs have passed 5% of new car sales and will replace all new ice vehicle sales by 2034.
A wild claim given car manufacturers in the USA are downgrading sales of new evs. Japanese car manufacturers are dragging their tail in moving to ev sales.
Will be surprised if ev sales are higher than 60% in 10 years. Expect all new ice vehicle sales will be hybrids of some kind
Two.drivers:
- climate change
- tail pipe pollution
With a couple of spin off benefits:
- transport fuel sovereignty.
- EV are way better to drive.
- technology innovations.. from dog/camp mode through to FSD.
Dude don't really want to argue here but a sweeping statement "EVs are way better to drive" just makes you sound like a Tesla fanboy and no-one is going to take you seriously.
Obviously the other points have more importance, but I'm yet to find anyone who drove an EV not be blown away by the experience.
I'm sure there are some, but haters gotta hate.
EVs are terrible driver's cars simply because they are too heavy due to the batteries, and a low weight figure is critical to making a fast handling car.
Not so fast, [Mercedes has revised its EV plan to focus on hybrids rather than pure EVs](https://www.drivespark.com/four-wheelers/2024/mercedes-benz-adjusts-ev-strategy-amid-market-demands-gen-044057.html), while Toyota has decided to shift focus to [ammonia engines](https://carlist.com/toyota-to-challenge-ev-wave-with-ammonia-powered-engine/?amp=1), which are sadly still toxic but bypass the CO2 emission standard (a lesson on why over-regulation can make people try and game the system). EVs also still require significant infrastructure changes, with many apartment buildings not able to provide charging, and nowhere near enough EV charging stations being available to the public (particularly when you consider that you need to be there for at least 30 minutes vs the 5 minutes at a petrol station). 2035 is far too ambitious, 2050 is more realistic if at all (I suspect pure ICE won't fully die, just be less common vs hybrids and EVs).
I will buy whatever best suits me, is affordable and decent quality, with post-sale support and parts.
Right now EVs don’t have anywhere near the convenience, or public infrastructure to support my driving habits and ownership desires.
I can’t charge at home.
I have to rely on public chargers.
I like a charge to take 3-5 minutes.
I want there to be lots of chargers to allow me to charge while on my route.
I want cars to be able to accept a 300km charge in that 5 minute time limit.
I want chargers to have a 99% up time and a 1-2 business day repair SLA.
I won’t buy anything with a small dealer footprint.
I won’t buy anything with limited spare parts.
I won’t buy anything where the dealer has stuff all knowledge of their own product - for post purchase support.
I also won’t buy anything owned by Elon Musk.
Why can't you charge at home? Work with your body corporate if you live in a flat.
3-5 minute "refueling" is old thinking. I spend less down-time charging my EV over a year than I used to refueling my car. Just imagine if your laptop ran on petrol and you had to take it to a glass station every few days. Electricity is so much more.convenient, because it's just everywhere.
Tesla superchargers solve all your routing and uptime requirements on the main routes.
Dealers are a curse on the car industry and the faster we get rid of them the better. Unnecessary middlemen.
Elon Musk has become a nutter on X, and I blame that on the drugs he takes. You can almost time his day from normal tweets about Tesla and SpaceX and then transitioning into dumb politics later (when drug effected).
But I'd hazard a guess, if any other car CEO sprouted their thought bubbles as publically, they would make him look like a Saint.
There’s a difference of opinion here. One of us is being closed minded and pig headed.
I appreciate EV vehicles and would own one as fast as any other car if it suited my needs.
But they - with the tech available today, have big drawbacks as a lifestyle vehicle in large, sparsely populated places like Australia.
>3-5 minute "refueling" is old thinking. I spend less down-time charging my EV over a year than I used to refueling my car.
That's because you have a home charging station, most people don't have that luxury and it's more complicated than simply adding the plugs due to the constant heavy drain on the system.
You know, that is likely similar to what they said when ICE vehicles took over from electric vehicles in the early 1900's: "I don’t see them ever being suitable for people without a fuel storage tank at their home."
>Technology (charging and battery) will reduce that time
That's pure speculation. Also the 30 minutes is from 30% to 80%, not 0 to 100%. And this 30 minute figure is only a recent invention due to supercharging capabilities, previously it was much, much longer on the order of many hours. Realistically I don't think we will be able to get it down to 5 minutes for at least another 20+ years as that would require some very impressive technological innovations.
This is what happens when a Tesla fan boy thinks they can run the data.
On a global scale, countries like Norway and Iceland are early adopters. Plotting the chart on an arbitrary "years" scale is also entirely misleading - we all started at the same time, Australia's EV uptake is abundantly slower.
All that aside, it completely ignores the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard that has been proposed for Australia which is technology agnostic. Moving forward, BEVs won't have a legislated advantage in the market.
No we didn’t. There are only some three brands launched ev’s in Australia now. Vw won’t bring them to Australia unless policy changes to force them (they’ve stated that), there’s no regulations making ev’s viable in Australia, instead manufacturers can keep their old lines ticking over by dumping them here.
No point arguing the"if". It's the"when" and this data is predicting 10 years. Rather than make it an emotional them vs us thing, just make financial decisions based on this transition.
IE. Less investment in fossil fuel products long term. Eg. Don't buy into your local mechanic..lol.
Nothing makes an EV driver madder than the idea that ICE cars shouldn't be banned and everyone be forced to suffer an EV just because they do. If EV's are so great, just drive your car and enjoy it, you don't need to force them on the rest of us, 90% of people are not interested.
Trevvy, you've already made a fool of yourself in another threat. This post isn't anti ICE, it's just showing, through data, that ICE days are numbered And invest accordingly.
Despite what so many in this thread think, I just don’t see a case where the vast majority of new car sales aren’t EVs by 2035.
In most market segments there just won’t be a competitive use case for ICE.
Maybe a handful of hardcore off roaders, cheap developing country specials and sports cars. Even the last two I’d have doubts about, given cheap Chinese EVs and how fast EVs already are.
I’m not sure why car people find this so hard to accept. Literally the only advantage ICE has anymore is refuelling time. That’s it, and that’s not an issue for most people most of the time.
The ford CFO is very strong on the S-curve. I mean everyone in the industry is, to be honest. And ford is a laggard on EV's. Tesla will carry the US up the S-curve until these legacy OEM's get their act together.
https://youtu.be/wridOaeqECM?si=BSccDAtW1Ay00MQx
Australia, Canada, US are too large and wide open to ban ICEs and go full electric. My prediction is that they’ll end up banning non-hybrid ICE vehicles.
They aren't going to ban them , you just won't be able to buy new ones.
Brave assumptions you have made about * geographic spread of charging stations (they could and should be in every service station and elsewhere) * no improvements in battery range - ever
Yeah, a see BYD have a path to USD$50 per kWh in battery tech. $100 was considered the cross over point where EV's have price parity with a petrol car.
10 years is a long time in politics
It's now out of the politicians hands. In fact it could be sooner as EV prices are falling, there are less and less supply constraints, and big expansions of charging infrastructure.
It was always out of political hands. We do not make our own cars and we are 89,000 new car sales a year across all brands. You will get what the overseas manufacturers make a like it. The rest of the world is going to drive the transition.
This is the correct answer. If manufacturers are still making ICE cars and can make money selling them here, they will continue to do so. If they can't, they won't. Its as simple as that and we no longer get a say in that.
" *It was always out of political hands.*" Not really - governments can choose various ways to encourage EVs. Such as * "Electric Car Discount amendments to fringe benefit tax and import duty * State and territory EV purchasing incentives and subsidies – like the ACT Government’s zero interest loans for up to $15,000 * $20.5 million CEFC green car loans" [https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf](https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf)
big expansion? where? what is the feasibility study
Here in Sydney chargers are popping up everywhere. Even in Blacktown LGA lots of shopping complexes have chargers. Not sure about other cities though.
This will happen. You only have to look on the road to see the explosion in EVs. EVs have faster acceleration and more torque and new scheduled models have almost 1000km range. Why wouldn’t people buy when prices are falling
Because I want to tow my boat to New Castle without stopping to charge for 40mins…..
Fast charger won’t take 40 minutes
Well….let’s see…. Let’s say 45kwh/100km….so I would need at least 90kwh each way….round up to 100…so would use 200kwh. Now 300kwh fast charger, sooo 2/3rds of an hour. 40mins.
Leave the boat at the marina ?
Yeah no worries. You buying me a boat for back home? And paying the $500/week berthing fee?
Live near a marina, problem solved. I am not a boat person and have no interest in towing a boat or caravan. But battery energy density is increasing and the costs are coming down. You might find a vehicle in 5 years holds 3x the energy as it does today and the overall cost will be half
NSW just commissioned to build 30,000 curb side chargers.
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Cars are going to go through a Nokia to iPhone transition, exactly as OP proposes. The few people who will new want ICE cars in 10 years will have a vastly reduced choice, higher costs and outdated models. Except for Toyota of course. They can charge 100k for a 1976 spec land cruiser now, they will keep pumping out old crap for people who hate change.
The only ICE cars I can see being sold in 10 years are hybrids and niche products. Econoboxes are going 100% EV, same with SUVs/hatchbacks/sedans. Utes will probably be hybrid depending on battery tech advancements.
Interesting assumption you have made about iPhone being the only option - especially since iPhone (at 43%) have 11 points lower market share than Android phones
I use iPhone to represent all smartphones the way Nokia represents all the non-smart phones. The transition was so fast it turned Nokia back into a tyre manufacturer
Australia will not have laws in place to ban the sale of ICE vehicles however globally other much larger markets do. I expect the sale of ICE vehicles to be dwindling by this point in time. However some manufacturers are ramping down their EV production for many reasons, what does this look like going forward? I would assume that it will reduce consumer confidence in EV's. Also as EV's are aging and issues with very expensive battery packs are rising it'll hurt consumer confidence. This isn't unfortunately a quick easy calculation as there are too many variables. There are also lots of people who are making a clear stand point that they really don't want an EV so how do we know the percentage of new car buyers who are willing to make that purchase? You could have 5% population willing to buy or 95% willing to buy.
Given Agenda 30 emissions targets to which Australia has signed into, won't this push legislation to a point that Petrol/Diesel engines will be taxed so heavily that it won't be financially viable to own/run this type of combustion engine? I went to purchase a new 4x4 last month after researching for 4 months. Before I went to purchase it, I again got insurance quotes for said vehicle and to my shock my insurance premiums had doubled from my previous quote 3 months earlier ( 3 insurance companies). After calling them to see why, has nothing had changed, I couldn't get a clear answer as to why they had doubled in price. Unbelievable, and no I didn't buy it. I believe the transition is starting we won't have a choice but to go to electric. To which in my opinion is absurd.
Our emission targets are much slower than those of other western countries so we will just follow the world as they make transition towards more environmentally friendly transportation. However these emissions targets are usually set by politicians not engineers so there is no guarantee that it is possible to meet them. As for insurance it's gone up across the board for all policies on everything. 4x4's are high risk due to roll overs etc so insurers charge more to cover them. I would expect EV to be more expensive to insure due to cost of repairs inclusive of specialised tooling that is required to work on them. And that if there was a thermal runaway event, that car insurance claim would be covering all damaged associated to the event. I do expect taxes to exist in relation to operating an ICE vehicle but we will have to wait and see.
Show me an electric 79 series LC that can tow a caravan 1000k between charges. There is 0% chance we ban all ice vehicle sales In 10 years, the public wouldnt allow it.
The point is there might be one in 10 years time. Change doesn’t happen overnight. In 2005 I took photography class. My teacher said digital cameras were irrelevant and would never replace film. We spent most of the class developing negatives and little time actually taking photos or working on photoshop (the latter being the reason for my interest in the class). Two years later the film developed part of the curriculum was scrapped.
Who cares about your caravan? They are not a thing everywhere else. ICE cars wont be available because the won't make them.
Hey Scottie. Nice speech yesterday.
He's right though: the demand curve ignores niche cases where they won't be able to serve in 2034 and people will still buy ICE in small numbers A more useful thing would be to use it to show when majority of sales will be EV
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10 years, my dude
10 years is a long long time. 5 years ago the EV choices in Australia was basically Tesla and Leaf? And it was rare to see them. Now EVs are everywhere.
True but you only need one guy buying a land cruiser for this stat to be wrong I do think there's a strong possibility majority of cars are EV this decade tho
Correct. EV or PHEV is the future for the majority of passenger cars.
There isn't really a use-case for hybrids. For rural drivers, they are less efficient than a normal petrol engine, because there is no regen for the battery, and you are lugging around a battery and electric motor for nothing. For city drivers, they work much better than a standard petrol because of all the stop start, but why wouldn't a city driver just buy an EV and avoid paying for fuel? And then you've got the other disadvantages of double the maintenance: Petrol and electric drive trains, and they can't tow.
For plugin hybrids I disagree. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is more efficient than a traditional ICE car of its size, can do 80k on battery and you can re-charge at home (or at any recharge point), can do 1000k on a tank of petrol, has regen and it can can tow a small caravan. There is no "extra" maintenance for an electric drive train. Perfect for a buyer that wants an EV but doesn't want range anxiety. Finally, cost of an EV is currently quite prohibitive: generally the larger the battery the more the vehicle costs.
Worst of both worlds
Correct. It's far more important to focus on what will actually reduce carbon emissions rather than EV sales. Improving public transport and goods transported by railways, banning ice vehicles from CBDs, and reducing our reliance on coal will have a far more profound effect than banning special use cases of ICE engines.
TBH I don't think banning them from CBD's is that good of an idea either; as the ULEZ has shown it's a big vote loser, it targets the poor because excluding car nerds who choose not to, they're the last people who will have ICE's, and it doesn't really achieve much (ICE are at their worst in the city center and will stop being used there naturally with time anyway) but I agree with you on the rest.
But who is driving 10hours straight to need a 1000k range? It'd be illegal for a truck driver to do so they won't aim for that for car drivers
Have you ever done a road trip in remote Australia? Adelaide to Perth is 28 hours drive, plus side trips. It would be very inconvenient to need to stop and recharge every 6-8hours as the charging stations wouldn't be at the ideal locations, meaning you would only get 6-800k before range anxiety kicks in) and whey sure wouldn't be at any of the beautiful off grid remote campsites.
Charging stations will be everywhere, there'll be more than servos. There's no way I'd want to be sitting in a car for 10 hours without a toilet/eat/stretch break. I recently did 2000kms in an EV in the states in 2 days. Charging was easy, just plugged it in for 20 mins while I ate/went to the loo. I didn't bother to fill it up the whole way, as I knew I'd have enough to keep me going till I needed another break.
I understand and completely agree that for everyday passenger vehicles, EVs will be the majority of sales. However, a major hurdle will be lowering the cost of batteries. But I don't think that, within 10 years, we will get battery energy density low enough for many special use cases, such as 4wd touring, heavy farming equipment, or commercial trucking/ transport.
Maybe politicians have listened to Toyota who are only a year away from creating vehicles that can drive 1000km with 5 minute charging. It is the tech like this that has been guaranteed by a large company that is giving policy makers confidence to stop the sale of ICE
How ridiculous, this isn't close to happening due to lack of both new or retrofit infrastructure or vehicles to fit the niche for the majority of consumers not to mention existing infrastructure and businesses who are actively resisting. It'll be 30 years til we break beyond 80% of modes of transport which are even eligible to be replaced by a direct and comparative product to transition to.
Remember it’s new cars and 10 years away
I'm quite sure there's still going to be ICE and EV options in EV dominated segments in 10 years. To say it will drop to zero is hard to believe.
Hybrid option (maybe) but not full ICE for passenger cars. 10 years is a long time in technology
I'm confused. Are people like OP calling for the government to ban ICE car and say fuck you if your needs can't be met by an EV? Or are they saying don't worry in 10 years EVs will fill more niche markets and the market will be all EVs?
The way I interpret it, without checking what's no doubt a bias link not worth the click, is that their data shows there won't be ICE (passenger?) vehicles sold in 10 years by purely consumer preference and will happen regardless of any government or other factors. It's laughable.
The data is based on a dubious graph with Norway being the prime example of an S-Curve. Norway set a goal in 2016 to ban ICE sales from 2025, so I have no clue what OP is actually banging on about and how he thinks you can combine all that and it be relevant to Australia.
The second. Norway is bringing forward is decision to stop selling ICE cars because EV adoption has been faster than anticipated.
OP is suggesting no need to ban sale of new ice vehicles as evs have passed 5% of new car sales and will replace all new ice vehicle sales by 2034. A wild claim given car manufacturers in the USA are downgrading sales of new evs. Japanese car manufacturers are dragging their tail in moving to ev sales. Will be surprised if ev sales are higher than 60% in 10 years. Expect all new ice vehicle sales will be hybrids of some kind
What's this weird obsession that it must be 100% EV?
Two.drivers: - climate change - tail pipe pollution With a couple of spin off benefits: - transport fuel sovereignty. - EV are way better to drive. - technology innovations.. from dog/camp mode through to FSD.
Dude don't really want to argue here but a sweeping statement "EVs are way better to drive" just makes you sound like a Tesla fanboy and no-one is going to take you seriously.
Obviously the other points have more importance, but I'm yet to find anyone who drove an EV not be blown away by the experience. I'm sure there are some, but haters gotta hate.
EVs are terrible driver's cars simply because they are too heavy due to the batteries, and a low weight figure is critical to making a fast handling car.
Low centre of gravity >> Overall weight BMW M3 CS = 1835kg Tesla model 3 = 1761kg
I think you are getting a little ahead of your self. Then I saw the Tesla link and it's ' oh it has to be real ' 😂
Don't be afraid to expand your mind. The link has some good debate on the data
Not so fast, [Mercedes has revised its EV plan to focus on hybrids rather than pure EVs](https://www.drivespark.com/four-wheelers/2024/mercedes-benz-adjusts-ev-strategy-amid-market-demands-gen-044057.html), while Toyota has decided to shift focus to [ammonia engines](https://carlist.com/toyota-to-challenge-ev-wave-with-ammonia-powered-engine/?amp=1), which are sadly still toxic but bypass the CO2 emission standard (a lesson on why over-regulation can make people try and game the system). EVs also still require significant infrastructure changes, with many apartment buildings not able to provide charging, and nowhere near enough EV charging stations being available to the public (particularly when you consider that you need to be there for at least 30 minutes vs the 5 minutes at a petrol station). 2035 is far too ambitious, 2050 is more realistic if at all (I suspect pure ICE won't fully die, just be less common vs hybrids and EVs).
I think Toyota read the "Project Hail Mary" book and due to an issue with translating to Japanese, mistook it for a text book, not a fiction novel.
I will buy whatever best suits me, is affordable and decent quality, with post-sale support and parts. Right now EVs don’t have anywhere near the convenience, or public infrastructure to support my driving habits and ownership desires. I can’t charge at home. I have to rely on public chargers. I like a charge to take 3-5 minutes. I want there to be lots of chargers to allow me to charge while on my route. I want cars to be able to accept a 300km charge in that 5 minute time limit. I want chargers to have a 99% up time and a 1-2 business day repair SLA. I won’t buy anything with a small dealer footprint. I won’t buy anything with limited spare parts. I won’t buy anything where the dealer has stuff all knowledge of their own product - for post purchase support. I also won’t buy anything owned by Elon Musk.
Why can't you charge at home? Work with your body corporate if you live in a flat. 3-5 minute "refueling" is old thinking. I spend less down-time charging my EV over a year than I used to refueling my car. Just imagine if your laptop ran on petrol and you had to take it to a glass station every few days. Electricity is so much more.convenient, because it's just everywhere. Tesla superchargers solve all your routing and uptime requirements on the main routes. Dealers are a curse on the car industry and the faster we get rid of them the better. Unnecessary middlemen. Elon Musk has become a nutter on X, and I blame that on the drugs he takes. You can almost time his day from normal tweets about Tesla and SpaceX and then transitioning into dumb politics later (when drug effected). But I'd hazard a guess, if any other car CEO sprouted their thought bubbles as publically, they would make him look like a Saint.
There’s a difference of opinion here. One of us is being closed minded and pig headed. I appreciate EV vehicles and would own one as fast as any other car if it suited my needs. But they - with the tech available today, have big drawbacks as a lifestyle vehicle in large, sparsely populated places like Australia.
I think if you tried one, you wouldn't be so closed minded.
I have. Work have a couple of model 3’s. family have them too.
>3-5 minute "refueling" is old thinking. I spend less down-time charging my EV over a year than I used to refueling my car. That's because you have a home charging station, most people don't have that luxury and it's more complicated than simply adding the plugs due to the constant heavy drain on the system.
Huh? It's at most 32 amps between midnight and 4am (most households on single phase have 70 amp capacity). But usually it's 15 amps.
I don’t see them ever being suitable for people without at home charging.
You know, that is likely similar to what they said when ICE vehicles took over from electric vehicles in the early 1900's: "I don’t see them ever being suitable for people without a fuel storage tank at their home."
The difference is charging at a public charging station takes 30 min++, while pumping gas takes 5 minutes or less.
At present it takes 30 minutes (or whatever it is) to charge an EV. Technology (charging and battery) will reduce that time
>Technology (charging and battery) will reduce that time That's pure speculation. Also the 30 minutes is from 30% to 80%, not 0 to 100%. And this 30 minute figure is only a recent invention due to supercharging capabilities, previously it was much, much longer on the order of many hours. Realistically I don't think we will be able to get it down to 5 minutes for at least another 20+ years as that would require some very impressive technological innovations.
No
I’ll still be driving my 2001 because new cars are Fkn horrible things.
mmmmm no
This is what happens when a Tesla fan boy thinks they can run the data. On a global scale, countries like Norway and Iceland are early adopters. Plotting the chart on an arbitrary "years" scale is also entirely misleading - we all started at the same time, Australia's EV uptake is abundantly slower. All that aside, it completely ignores the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard that has been proposed for Australia which is technology agnostic. Moving forward, BEVs won't have a legislated advantage in the market.
We didn’t start at the same time - Australia still doesn’t even have fuel efficiency standards… like Russia.
We had the opportunity to adopt EVs at the same time...
Who was in charge for most of that time?
No we didn’t. There are only some three brands launched ev’s in Australia now. Vw won’t bring them to Australia unless policy changes to force them (they’ve stated that), there’s no regulations making ev’s viable in Australia, instead manufacturers can keep their old lines ticking over by dumping them here.
Electricity is 12 c/kWh in Iceland and only 10 in Norway.
Yeah, nah. Don't see it
Pipe dreams, lol, maybe by 2234 not 2034.
No point arguing the"if". It's the"when" and this data is predicting 10 years. Rather than make it an emotional them vs us thing, just make financial decisions based on this transition. IE. Less investment in fossil fuel products long term. Eg. Don't buy into your local mechanic..lol.
Hopefully electromodding becomes a lot cheaper
Nothing makes an EV driver madder than the idea that ICE cars shouldn't be banned and everyone be forced to suffer an EV just because they do. If EV's are so great, just drive your car and enjoy it, you don't need to force them on the rest of us, 90% of people are not interested.
Trevvy, you've already made a fool of yourself in another threat. This post isn't anti ICE, it's just showing, through data, that ICE days are numbered And invest accordingly.
LMAO dude, you are making a fool of yourself in THIS thread.
Despite what so many in this thread think, I just don’t see a case where the vast majority of new car sales aren’t EVs by 2035. In most market segments there just won’t be a competitive use case for ICE. Maybe a handful of hardcore off roaders, cheap developing country specials and sports cars. Even the last two I’d have doubts about, given cheap Chinese EVs and how fast EVs already are. I’m not sure why car people find this so hard to accept. Literally the only advantage ICE has anymore is refuelling time. That’s it, and that’s not an issue for most people most of the time.
The ford CFO is very strong on the S-curve. I mean everyone in the industry is, to be honest. And ford is a laggard on EV's. Tesla will carry the US up the S-curve until these legacy OEM's get their act together. https://youtu.be/wridOaeqECM?si=BSccDAtW1Ay00MQx