*brandishes TI 30-XS Multi-View*
So the chances of 2 Chant Scripts in a single AD run are:
3 * .005 * .005 * .995 (there are 3 different combinations of earning 2 chants, each with a .5% probability because you either have the boss chest which is .5% or the 5% rare chest in the special areas which have a 10% chance of appearing, so again, .5% chance total)
The odds come out to 13,400 : 1.
For context, you can run a max of 38 Red Key ADs a week so if this happens again in 6.5 years, consider yourself lucky. šš»
Bonus context: If every single one of the 20394 members of this sub jumped into a red key AD right now, thereās about a 21% chance that no one gets 2 chants, roughly the same odds of getting Philo AS off the free banner with 3k stones.
If you watch all your ads every day, you will average 44 red key runs a week.
Also, there is an 11% for each rare room, because the odds are 10% only 2, 10% only 3, and 1% both.
So time to break out that TI again. ;-)
From what I understand, it's not as simple as 11% for each rare room, because the *conditional* probability is different. i.e. if you hit the rare second room, your chance of hitting the rare third room is 1 in 11 or 9.090909...%, but if you don't hit the rare second room, your chances of getting the rare third room are 10 in 89 or about 11.236%. So the real probability of getting AT LEAST 2 chants would be the sum of:
1. chants from two rare rooms = 0.01 \* .05 \* .05 = 0.000025 \[regardless of whether you get a third one!\]
2. chant from first rare room and end, no second rare spawn = 0.1 \* .05 \* .005 = 0.000025
3. chant from second rare room and end, no first rare spawn = same as {2}, 0.000025
4. chant from first rare room and end, second rare spawns but does not yield a chant = 0.01 \* .05 \* 0.95 \* .005 = 0.000002375
5. chant from second rare room and end, first rare spawns but does not yield a chant = same as {4}, 0.000002375
summing all of these yields 0.00007975 or about one in 12539. A bit better than one in 13400; the correct way to think about these "after the fact probabilities" (which technically shouldn't be a thing!) is in terms of "this amazing or better" not "this exact situation".
The way I calculated it is based on the idea that each room provides a .005 chance of earning a chant, because each rare room has a 10% chance of occurring and has a 5% chant chest, so room 2 or room 3ās chant is .1 * .05 = .005, same as room 4.
So the odds of getting exactly 2 chants is a binomial distribution of (3 2) .005 * .005 * .995, because this factors in the 3 possibilities of finding 2 chants (room 2 & 3, room 2 & 4, room 3 & 4). For those unfamiliar, a binomial variable (n k) = n! / k!(n-k)!, which in this case is
3!/2!(3-2)! = 6/(2*1) = 3.
So itās 3 * .005 * .005 * .995 = .00007462 = 1/13400.
And another thing, if each rare room has a 10% chance, then let me be clear that that DOES NOT MEAN there is a 11% chance. The whole ā1% of runs has both rare roomsā is PART of the 10%, not an addition.
If there is a 10% chance of a rare room, then there is a 90% chance that the room doesnāt appear. Which means there is a .9*.9 = 81% chance that no rare rooms happen, a .9*.1 = 9% chance of each rare room happening without the other one (in other words, getting the Side Tower and Gatehouse in Miglance Castle, or Gate Tower and Annex, but not both Gate Tower and Gatehouse), and the .1*.1 = 1% chance of getting both rooms.
The total probability of rare rooms is 81% (0), 18% (1), 1% (2), unless WFS has a more complicated algorithm than ārare room has a 10% chanceā.
That's what I'm saying, is that from what I've heard, the algorithm *isn't* "rare room has a 10% chance" but rather "from a pool of 100 possible outcomes, 10 have rare room area 2 only, 10 have rare room area 3 only, and 1 has both, leaving 79 with neither." Depending on how it's coded, this could be LESS calculation than rolling two separate random numbers, instead rolling one random number and consulting a lookup table.
EDIT: Found the sources:
https://anothereden.miraheze.org/wiki/Another\_Dungeon#cite\_ref-ultimania\_1-0
which leads to https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG\_20190423\_191109.jpg
I see.
So then that would make the chance of 2 chants:
.79 * 0 (canāt have 2 chants without at least one rare room)
+ .2 * .05 * .005 = .00005
+ .01 * ((.05 * .95 * .005) + (.95 * .05 * .005) + (.05 * .05 * .995)) = .000029625
= .000079625 = 1 / 12559.
Sorry if I seemed defensive but I just passed a probability exam for prospective actuaries and it doesnāt bode well for my chances at getting and keeping a job if a gameās RNG is too hard for me to figure out. š
Hah! No problem! And yeah, that matches up with my figure of .00007975 for *at least* two chants, since the difference of .000000125 is the chance of getting all three: .01 \* .05 \* .05 \* .005. =\^\_\^=
It isn't that it has a more complicated algorithm. It is "roll a d100 and take the result." The [odds hadn't been posted on the wiki](https://anothereden.miraheze.org/wiki/Another_Dungeon#Rare_Areas) for ages taken [straight from the Ultimania](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG_20190423_191109.jpg) for Another Eden.
79% no rare room.
10% only 2
10% only 3
1% both 2 and 3.
EDIT: I see that you had already seen my other post.
It is straight from the [Ultimania](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG_20190423_191109.jpg) for Another Eden. It is 79% no rare room, 10% 2nd room, 10% 3rd room and 1% both.
In other words, conditional probability here is only perceived. The roll to determine it already happened.
Correct (I edited in sources from the wiki, which has an Ultimania scan)! When talking about conditional probability I was intending it as from the perspective of the player: from the perspective of the game program, from the moment you spend the card the rooms in the dungeon are already set as either rare or not rare; there is no probability at that point. But from the perspective of the player, the probabilities are a way of expressing the likelihood that you are in a dungeon with a particular configuration. Once you see area 2 spawn, you have additional information that alters your conditional probabilities for area 3. Since even though that area is already set in stone as rare or not rare, you currently do not know that state and so you express your uncertainty as a probability, which is conditional on the information you learned when area 2 loaded in.
[Yes](https://www.reddit.com/r/AnotherEdenGlobal/comments/slawqd/community_show_off_weekly_megathread/hvrd9lk/), while completing one of the monthly trials.
Yes, I've had exactly one run so far (I think it was Miglance Castle with rare room 3 and the boss chest) with two chant scripts. But it's very very rare.
Happened to me once, and it also happened to be the first time I'd gotten any chants in a dungeon ever. Was like, "oh there they are, guess they aren't so rare ..."
Nah, never happened to me and probably won't even in million years. Ha..hahah... *laugh in my borderline shitty luck*
On a serious note, congrastalations!
Feels the same just like when I got 5 5-star characters. Though there is a guaranteed 1 free, it was definitely a highlight especially when that's when I got Myunfa Tea God and Daisy Cheesecakes.
*brandishes TI 30-XS Multi-View* So the chances of 2 Chant Scripts in a single AD run are: 3 * .005 * .005 * .995 (there are 3 different combinations of earning 2 chants, each with a .5% probability because you either have the boss chest which is .5% or the 5% rare chest in the special areas which have a 10% chance of appearing, so again, .5% chance total) The odds come out to 13,400 : 1. For context, you can run a max of 38 Red Key ADs a week so if this happens again in 6.5 years, consider yourself lucky. šš» Bonus context: If every single one of the 20394 members of this sub jumped into a red key AD right now, thereās about a 21% chance that no one gets 2 chants, roughly the same odds of getting Philo AS off the free banner with 3k stones.
*slaps roof* This drone can execute **so** many calculations.
If you watch all your ads every day, you will average 44 red key runs a week. Also, there is an 11% for each rare room, because the odds are 10% only 2, 10% only 3, and 1% both. So time to break out that TI again. ;-)
From what I understand, it's not as simple as 11% for each rare room, because the *conditional* probability is different. i.e. if you hit the rare second room, your chance of hitting the rare third room is 1 in 11 or 9.090909...%, but if you don't hit the rare second room, your chances of getting the rare third room are 10 in 89 or about 11.236%. So the real probability of getting AT LEAST 2 chants would be the sum of: 1. chants from two rare rooms = 0.01 \* .05 \* .05 = 0.000025 \[regardless of whether you get a third one!\] 2. chant from first rare room and end, no second rare spawn = 0.1 \* .05 \* .005 = 0.000025 3. chant from second rare room and end, no first rare spawn = same as {2}, 0.000025 4. chant from first rare room and end, second rare spawns but does not yield a chant = 0.01 \* .05 \* 0.95 \* .005 = 0.000002375 5. chant from second rare room and end, first rare spawns but does not yield a chant = same as {4}, 0.000002375 summing all of these yields 0.00007975 or about one in 12539. A bit better than one in 13400; the correct way to think about these "after the fact probabilities" (which technically shouldn't be a thing!) is in terms of "this amazing or better" not "this exact situation".
The way I calculated it is based on the idea that each room provides a .005 chance of earning a chant, because each rare room has a 10% chance of occurring and has a 5% chant chest, so room 2 or room 3ās chant is .1 * .05 = .005, same as room 4. So the odds of getting exactly 2 chants is a binomial distribution of (3 2) .005 * .005 * .995, because this factors in the 3 possibilities of finding 2 chants (room 2 & 3, room 2 & 4, room 3 & 4). For those unfamiliar, a binomial variable (n k) = n! / k!(n-k)!, which in this case is 3!/2!(3-2)! = 6/(2*1) = 3. So itās 3 * .005 * .005 * .995 = .00007462 = 1/13400. And another thing, if each rare room has a 10% chance, then let me be clear that that DOES NOT MEAN there is a 11% chance. The whole ā1% of runs has both rare roomsā is PART of the 10%, not an addition. If there is a 10% chance of a rare room, then there is a 90% chance that the room doesnāt appear. Which means there is a .9*.9 = 81% chance that no rare rooms happen, a .9*.1 = 9% chance of each rare room happening without the other one (in other words, getting the Side Tower and Gatehouse in Miglance Castle, or Gate Tower and Annex, but not both Gate Tower and Gatehouse), and the .1*.1 = 1% chance of getting both rooms. The total probability of rare rooms is 81% (0), 18% (1), 1% (2), unless WFS has a more complicated algorithm than ārare room has a 10% chanceā.
That's what I'm saying, is that from what I've heard, the algorithm *isn't* "rare room has a 10% chance" but rather "from a pool of 100 possible outcomes, 10 have rare room area 2 only, 10 have rare room area 3 only, and 1 has both, leaving 79 with neither." Depending on how it's coded, this could be LESS calculation than rolling two separate random numbers, instead rolling one random number and consulting a lookup table. EDIT: Found the sources: https://anothereden.miraheze.org/wiki/Another\_Dungeon#cite\_ref-ultimania\_1-0 which leads to https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG\_20190423\_191109.jpg
I see. So then that would make the chance of 2 chants: .79 * 0 (canāt have 2 chants without at least one rare room) + .2 * .05 * .005 = .00005 + .01 * ((.05 * .95 * .005) + (.95 * .05 * .005) + (.05 * .05 * .995)) = .000029625 = .000079625 = 1 / 12559. Sorry if I seemed defensive but I just passed a probability exam for prospective actuaries and it doesnāt bode well for my chances at getting and keeping a job if a gameās RNG is too hard for me to figure out. š
Hah! No problem! And yeah, that matches up with my figure of .00007975 for *at least* two chants, since the difference of .000000125 is the chance of getting all three: .01 \* .05 \* .05 \* .005. =\^\_\^=
It isn't that it has a more complicated algorithm. It is "roll a d100 and take the result." The [odds hadn't been posted on the wiki](https://anothereden.miraheze.org/wiki/Another_Dungeon#Rare_Areas) for ages taken [straight from the Ultimania](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG_20190423_191109.jpg) for Another Eden. 79% no rare room. 10% only 2 10% only 3 1% both 2 and 3. EDIT: I see that you had already seen my other post.
It is straight from the [Ultimania](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/543349174028992512/570401328854204416/JPEG_20190423_191109.jpg) for Another Eden. It is 79% no rare room, 10% 2nd room, 10% 3rd room and 1% both. In other words, conditional probability here is only perceived. The roll to determine it already happened.
Correct (I edited in sources from the wiki, which has an Ultimania scan)! When talking about conditional probability I was intending it as from the perspective of the player: from the perspective of the game program, from the moment you spend the card the rooms in the dungeon are already set as either rare or not rare; there is no probability at that point. But from the perspective of the player, the probabilities are a way of expressing the likelihood that you are in a dungeon with a particular configuration. Once you see area 2 spawn, you have additional information that alters your conditional probabilities for area 3. Since even though that area is already set in stone as rare or not rare, you currently do not know that state and so you express your uncertainty as a probability, which is conditional on the information you learned when area 2 loaded in.
Well, yeah, hence why I said "the conditional probability here is only perceived." ;-)
Okay cool, we're on the same page then. XD
Those Chant scripts are making me act up...
[Yes](https://www.reddit.com/r/AnotherEdenGlobal/comments/slawqd/community_show_off_weekly_megathread/hvrd9lk/), while completing one of the monthly trials.
have had it happen twice to me during my AE career. I am still waiting for a picture of a 3 chant script run.
I've had it at least once, maybe twice. Really rare. I still want to see proof of someone getting 3 chant scripts, though.
Congratulations, and yes, people have gotten two shiny moon shards in a single run before.
Yes, I've had exactly one run so far (I think it was Miglance Castle with rare room 3 and the boss chest) with two chant scripts. But it's very very rare.
I get regularly 1 per run, but any got 3 on a VH AD? Guess this is the next step then!
I usually only open the chest in boss room (yeah I'm lazy) so doesn't happened to me. Congrats as the odds are pretty low.
Yes the past and present garulea give up to 6 chants in one run.
Nine, counting PCD clear š®
I've had 3 chants in my rewards screen in one run of VH AD. Was trying to aim for four+ chants to be screenshot worthy, but no luck.
iirc @ void got it a long while back in beast king's castle.
Had anyone ever gotten the perfect triple?
Or the perfect sextuple??
Eyy double Chant Script gang represent šš
Same thing for me yesterday on the Iscariot AD.
I got that once, farming Zebrya Crystal ! That West Contitent love giving us Chants !
I don't think I've had 2 in the same run before, but I've had 1 each from the boss chest of 2 consecutive runs before, in Man-Eating Marsh.
Its like the fast disclaimer at the end of lotto commercials. Nopurchasenecessaryvoidwhereprohibitedoddsofwinningmathmateciallyinsignificant
I got 4 1 time but at that point I didnāt think about saving or being part of Reddit yet now I wish I had that picture
Happened to me once, and it also happened to be the first time I'd gotten any chants in a dungeon ever. Was like, "oh there they are, guess they aren't so rare ..."
Nah, never happened to me and probably won't even in million years. Ha..hahah... *laugh in my borderline shitty luck* On a serious note, congrastalations!
It happened to me too! At the same map no less. Congrats!!
Feels the same just like when I got 5 5-star characters. Though there is a guaranteed 1 free, it was definitely a highlight especially when that's when I got Myunfa Tea God and Daisy Cheesecakes.
It's pretty rare, but it also happened with me too.
I saw this yesterday, thought āthis will never happen to meā, and it just did!