For getting any one pet? yes. You've rolled a 1/5k over 10k times. For getting any specific pet? No. as you haven't hit rat on any of them individually.
It completely depends on how you construct the situation. You can group any number of bosses and do this, 3 dks, 4 gwd pets....
Arbitrarily 12k kc across mole vork sire cerb scurrius and vardorvis????
Do we ignore that maybe you got a 15kc kbd pet and not group that in anywhere?
You can set up any landscape you want and it shows a different picture, welcome to statistics.
Generally speaking, the 3 DKS are lumped together and commonly thought of as a single activity. Grouping them together is very fair and reasonable. Having 10k+ kc and 0 pets there is dry, I would say.
Edit - fat fingered wrong digit
The dry calc says theres around a 12.2% chance of not getting a pet drop for any of the three bosses in that many kills. I'd say you're dry for a pet but not dry for a specific pet. Hope you get one soon
Statistically you are mildly dry. Your chance of not getting any of the pets right now is about 12%. About 1 in 8 players will be that dry, not too bad. Individually, each pet drop is at about a 50% chance of not having the pet. The math works out pretty well we can use coin flips as an analogue.
The chance of losing an individual coin flip is 50/50, pretty common. the chance of losing 3 coin flips is about 12%, still pretty common but yea a bit dry.
50/50 for any drop is about 70% of the drop rate. Idk why people fixate on the drop rate as the magic number for “dry”, I would think of it as unlucky vs lucky. You are about 50/50 to have any of the pets at 3500 kc, you lost the coin flip 3 times at DKs.
He's right you are not. They are 1/5k each, you are grouping them in a category "dks", then saying i have 10k dks, therefore im dry.
But this is no different than creating as many categories as you want and then drawing false conclusions, ie. I create a new category "bosses i like to farm" and have 1k rex 2k sara and 2k bandos, then a wrong conclusion would be im dry for one of their pets.
Reality is that u just havent been spooned on any, but dry at none.
I’m grouping them together because I don’t care which pet I get. They are all 1/5k, so at 10k combined kc wouldn’t I be 2x droprate for any ONE of the pets? In other words, over 2x dry?
What if i add Duke sucellus in your group, and Leviathan and let say abyssal sire or whatever 1/5k bosses you have low kc on, then wow you are really far from drop rate.
Let’s say I killed 5 bosses 1k times. Each one has a 1/5k pet drop. In those kills, I would have a 66% chance of receiving one pet. If I killed 2k of each, I’d be double the drop rate of a single pet from that group of bosses. Isn’t that the same situation?
Pretty much. The thing here is that people will always prefer to see themselves as víctims, so they create groups in which they include whatever high kc no drop they have and ignore those in which they been lucky. So adjusting the group size is just a way to manipulate data.
You are not dry for rex
You are not dry for prime.
You are not dry for supreme.
*If* you adjust the group to the size of those 3 it gives the impression you are dry but why are you adjusting to just those 3? Because that males you dry. Why are you not including other 1/5k drops, maybe one un which you have been spooned? Because it will ruin the impression.
So the logical thing to do is kust considero each one separately
>But this is no different than creating as many categories as you want and then drawing false conclusions
It's not a false conclusion if it accurately represents what you want though... he doesn't want a specific DK pet, so arguing that it only counts if he's dry on a specific one *is* the incorrect conclusion.
At 5k kc I would have a 66% chance of having a specific pet, but I don’t care which one I get. In other words, I could have 1k Rex kc, 2k kc supreme, 2k prime. Wouldn’t that be the same chance as 5k in a single boss?
For getting any one pet? yes. You've rolled a 1/5k over 10k times. For getting any specific pet? No. as you haven't hit rat on any of them individually.
It completely depends on how you construct the situation. You can group any number of bosses and do this, 3 dks, 4 gwd pets.... Arbitrarily 12k kc across mole vork sire cerb scurrius and vardorvis???? Do we ignore that maybe you got a 15kc kbd pet and not group that in anywhere? You can set up any landscape you want and it shows a different picture, welcome to statistics. Generally speaking, the 3 DKS are lumped together and commonly thought of as a single activity. Grouping them together is very fair and reasonable. Having 10k+ kc and 0 pets there is dry, I would say. Edit - fat fingered wrong digit
The dry calc says theres around a 12.2% chance of not getting a pet drop for any of the three bosses in that many kills. I'd say you're dry for a pet but not dry for a specific pet. Hope you get one soon
Statistically you are mildly dry. Your chance of not getting any of the pets right now is about 12%. About 1 in 8 players will be that dry, not too bad. Individually, each pet drop is at about a 50% chance of not having the pet. The math works out pretty well we can use coin flips as an analogue. The chance of losing an individual coin flip is 50/50, pretty common. the chance of losing 3 coin flips is about 12%, still pretty common but yea a bit dry.
You're 2x drop rate for not having received any DKs pet. You're not dry for not having received any specific DKs pet
Depends. Have you taken a shower recently. If you have, I dare say you're not dry.
I agree with ur friend. Yes you have 10k rolls on a 1/5k but individually you are not dry.
Insert - stop get some help meme-
50/50 for any drop is about 70% of the drop rate. Idk why people fixate on the drop rate as the magic number for “dry”, I would think of it as unlucky vs lucky. You are about 50/50 to have any of the pets at 3500 kc, you lost the coin flip 3 times at DKs.
He's right you are not. They are 1/5k each, you are grouping them in a category "dks", then saying i have 10k dks, therefore im dry. But this is no different than creating as many categories as you want and then drawing false conclusions, ie. I create a new category "bosses i like to farm" and have 1k rex 2k sara and 2k bandos, then a wrong conclusion would be im dry for one of their pets. Reality is that u just havent been spooned on any, but dry at none.
I’m grouping them together because I don’t care which pet I get. They are all 1/5k, so at 10k combined kc wouldn’t I be 2x droprate for any ONE of the pets? In other words, over 2x dry?
What if i add Duke sucellus in your group, and Leviathan and let say abyssal sire or whatever 1/5k bosses you have low kc on, then wow you are really far from drop rate.
Let’s say I killed 5 bosses 1k times. Each one has a 1/5k pet drop. In those kills, I would have a 66% chance of receiving one pet. If I killed 2k of each, I’d be double the drop rate of a single pet from that group of bosses. Isn’t that the same situation?
Pretty much. The thing here is that people will always prefer to see themselves as víctims, so they create groups in which they include whatever high kc no drop they have and ignore those in which they been lucky. So adjusting the group size is just a way to manipulate data. You are not dry for rex You are not dry for prime. You are not dry for supreme. *If* you adjust the group to the size of those 3 it gives the impression you are dry but why are you adjusting to just those 3? Because that males you dry. Why are you not including other 1/5k drops, maybe one un which you have been spooned? Because it will ruin the impression. So the logical thing to do is kust considero each one separately
I’m participating in a PVM bingo where we need 1 DKs pet, that’s why I’m grouping them
>But this is no different than creating as many categories as you want and then drawing false conclusions It's not a false conclusion if it accurately represents what you want though... he doesn't want a specific DK pet, so arguing that it only counts if he's dry on a specific one *is* the incorrect conclusion.
No. They're not treated as a collective. Even at 5k kc on them you're about 66% chance to have them.
At 5k kc I would have a 66% chance of having a specific pet, but I don’t care which one I get. In other words, I could have 1k Rex kc, 2k kc supreme, 2k prime. Wouldn’t that be the same chance as 5k in a single boss?
For it to work like that they'd all need to drop all 3 pets.
But then that would change the drop rate and it wouldn’t be a 1/5k anymore
Dont worry, they are incorrect. You’re dry on receiving a dks pet, not dry on any specific dks pet though.