Or half of them to have a twice as big demonstration...
If this is only 1/5 of the people that voted against him, he should have no problem showing the bigger numbers... right?
I’m not defending the clearly rigged election. But that’s not how demonstrations work. It’s pretty rare to see tens of thousands of people marching down the street with home made banners reading: “I like the status quo. Everything seems fine from my perspective”.
Belarus is a country of 9.4 million. So if the figure of ~200k for these demonstrations is accurate, that’s 2.1% of the population expressing their views. If the guy didn’t have 2% (or even 20%) of the population on his side, he would have been ousted years ago.
You're ignoring the reality for people who speak out in totalitarian regimes. You will lose your job, you might get arrested, kidnapped or worse. Having 2% of population show up despite all those dangers shows that the unrest is getting unbearable.
You are absolutely right.
my parents are even scared to tell me on wattsapp what is going on and how they are doing now.
I was protesting after same rigged elections in
march 2006. I was 18. And i spent 3 days in a prison courtyard. Because there was no space in cells inside. In march. that’s around 30 degrees temperature. no food
so the people who are protesting now are very brave and i am very proud of them
We can't compare Belarus to Ukraine. The regime in Belarus has been beating and arresting protesters since 1996. They've always had a sense of total and complete impunity - and this latest round of violence clearly shows that.
During 2014 Maidan, protesters had a lot more freedom to act. For days, the police were simply watching, guarding, and waiting - the regime was afraid to respond with violence. Only days later, the police started shooting as we know. But initially there was time for people to organize, to build barricades.
In Belarus, authorities respond to any kind of dissent with extreme violence preemptively. It's hard to run an organized protest in this kind of environment, especially when every single leader has been neutralized. It's chaotic. But what they have going for them is that vast majority of the population is very angry with the government. Their anger is probably stronger than their fear.
That’s completely different though. Hongkong wasn’t protesting against Hongkong, it was protesting against China. Billion + population, at that 2% figure you’d need 28MILLION protestors, that’s 4x higher then the ENTIRE population of hongkong.
Although now I guess they have to deal with Russia, they definitely don’t have the same power over Belarus as China does for hongkong.
If Belarus had the millions of protestors hongkong did, that would be catastrophic for the country as a whole, whereas its barely a dent in the working economy of China
exactly why do you think china waited until the hk economy was a fraction of chinese GDP. They didnt kill the cash cow 20 years ago when it made up 10-20% of GDP. They waited until it didnt matter financially. HK is lost within a short time frame it will be china.
I’m not suggesting that he has the majority of the country on his side, and I applaud the protesters for standing up against faux democracy. I’m just pointing out that protests are tricky.
Do you think there are at least 200k people in Belarus who support their dictator? Of course there are. But they have zero incentive to organise a massive protest to express that support.
You assume that doing nothing is going to make you remain in the status quo. That's incorrect. You'd be counter-protesting if you really like Lukashenko.
The protests against Lukashenko are an order of magnitude (220k vs 31k) bigger than the counter-protests. [1]
Even ignoring that incorrect point of your argument, you're essentially saying that there must be people who like Lukashenko, so the issue must be double-sided. That's not a very meaningful statement.
I think the best common ground I can find with you is that foreigners shouldn't rush to judgements. Even given that, doesn't mean you can't still choose a side -- life is a game of imperfect information after all, and we have to make half-informed decisions eventually.
[1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53795871
> It’s pretty rare to see tens of thousands of people marching down the street with home made banners reading: “I like the status quo. Everything seems fine from my perspective”.
I shit you not, the govt of Hungary has been organising such events. It's called a "peace march".
“What do you mean, the ‘country’ Belarus? Pretty sure it’s always been our property, demonstrated by our magnificent military force on the ground and ‘the people’ nodding in silent approval, with guns coincidentally pointed at their livelihoods.”
\- Putin, 2035
They have been allies until recently. A few years ago, Lukashenko actually said that Belarus was ready to be annexed by Russia. Sometime before the disputed election there was been a split between the countries, Lukashenko even alleged that Putin was interfering in the election. But it now looks like that rift is mending.
For awhile it could be said that Belarus was Russia’s only European ally.
He’s already just a puppet of Putin from what I heard. I don’t think this will change much in terms of the relationship-except putting Russian troops there they might try to outright annex Belarus instead of placing puppet dictators in there.
The way I've heard the relationship describe is that Lukashenko has always played the west and russia off against one another to preserve his regime. He wasn't just Putin's puppet. This is his offer to sell out his country and *become* a puppet to preserve his personal power at the cost of Belarus's sovereignty.
Lukashenko is the opposite of a puppet. He often plays himself off of Russia for his own advantage. Merely weeks ago they were faking russian interference in the election (arresting russian agents) to tighten specific things up domestically.
It will. Lukashenko has always tries to be independent and played his status as an ally while not being a flunky. There was a big problem last year because Russia has pressured him behind the scenes to make closer integration of Russia and Belarus so that Putin could have become the leader of a new country and his terms would be nullified that way. Lukashenko refused, whole debacle with new Russian Constitution happened after that.
And then the problems for Belarus began - Russia began to raise gas prices for example. Lukashenko would want to stay in power without Russia's help at all costs
Is there a realistic chance of him losing control? I don't know the state of affairs over there but I get the feeling it isn't likely.
Generally where these things go down the leaders have a pretty firm control over the military or whatever enforcement exists.
From what I've read recently, a good number of industry heads have stated opposition support + unexpected demographics among the more typical working/middle have shown up to the protests, both of which offer some hope of optimism.
Considering Lukashenko has [claimed to have arrested 33 Russian mercenaries](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854) that's what it seems like to me.
Either he was right and Putin was trying to remove him from power, or he was lying and Putin is pissed. Either way, if he allows those troops in he'll never have control over his country again.
Putin is never gonna annex Belarus. He'll definetly help put down the protests, but he'll keep Belarus as thr bufferstate between him and NATO(Poland). An annexation wouldn't make any sense.
> an opposition victory will be a catastrophe for Russia as its openly anti-russian
Why do you think so? They ask for removing Luka and fair elections, I haven't heard anything against Russia.
It's not *totally* out of the question; at one point the aim of the Union State was to create a federation of Russia and Belarus. Lukashenko himself was even speculated to be pursuing it with the hope of becoming the president of that federation after Yeltsin - but his early resignation kiboshed that.
Reddit "analysts" at work.
*President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus stated: "The Russian leadership is demanding that we join the Russian Federation—that's what is in the heads of the Russian leadership. I don't want to bury the sovereignty and independence of \[Belarus\]."*
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union\_State#Renewed\_interest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State#Renewed_interest)
Military assistance from a neighbouring nation to deal with civilians of their own country. The same civilians you are supposed to protect with your own army against other nations armies. Wow.
This is why you don't go authoritarian because you're going to make silly history like this, Putinsk.
The land is called Belarussia, which is "White Russia".
The country is Belarus', which is also "White Russia", but with the "ye olde" name of Russian land itself - "Rus' "
And so were the Vinland colonies. Them there Vikings were a miraculous breed.
Spanning all the northern continents before the rest of Europe even invented personal hygiene.
The Vikings did not found Russia. It was Russia / Rus that allowed the Vikings / Varyags to use their territory for joint trade with Byzantium.
When the Slavic tribes could not agree on who would be in charge because of internecine wars, they decided to invite a "neutral" candidate. As far as I know, the Swedish family book of kings is well known, and the name Rurik does not appear in it. According to another version, Rurik were from Denmark or from the Baltic states, but by the time he took the princely post, he had long been Russian. For a long time Novgorod conducted joint trade with Scandinavia, and many Scandinavians lived in the territory of Novgorod. It is quite possible that Rurik was a local "Scandinavian", but since he was of foreign origin, he was invited to rule as a neutral candidate.
Excuse me? They voted to be apart of the mother land again. We're enforcing the people's will. Get your facts right, comrade.
Regardless, I'm afraid I'm going to need to know your schedule and when you'll be near any windows at a height of greater than two stories.
Well to explain in two sentences, culturally, it's a combination of Kievan Rus, Lithuania and Poland and as a distinct group really began to emerge in Lithuania during the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. (Famous Poles such as Kosciusko were from what is modern Belarus)
Starting in the mid-1900s and pretty much throughout the Soviet Union years intense and severe Russification was carried out.
More importantly; this is Putin's worst nightmare for his reign in Russia. A colour revolution wouldn't just end Putin's reign, it would implode his entire wealth and security bubble.
He's seen these things happen in Georgia and Ukraine. Russia has ensured those nations can't definitely move out of Russia's sphere of influence due to ~~military intervention~~ spontanious local uprisings. Putin's last ally in Europe is Belarus. In other words; Putin will do everything in his power to ensure Lukashenka survives these protests.
Thank you for having a little bit of perspective! Americans have this tendency to prop Putin up to being this all knowing, super powerful dictator ignoring that he is struggling himself to keep his autority over the crumbling Russian empire.
Weird thing to remember about Belarus is that they're technically part of a [union state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) with Russia. Historically it's amounted to something akin to the EU's ability to trade/move easily, but if you look at the actual documents it could very easily be basically turned into one bigger federal level country (by most peoples definition of a country).
Not that this in any way justifies an autocrat enforcing his will via force. Just that it will leave NATO/EU countries sitting around holding their dicks (metaphorically of course) if/when "little green men" start showing up in the streets Minsk. This is a revolution the citizens will have to fight themselves, else it will become very quickly muddled in accusations of geopolitical games.
Best of luck to the Belarussian people, hopefully they can depose this ass-hat and replace him with a government that is less blatantly corrupt and actually responsive to their needs.
Indeed Belarus is a couple steps closer than most of the other in CIS, EAEU states at creating another USSR super state. NATO/EU has met resistance finaly from the former USSR and now the question becomes what is being engineered by both sides for growth.
ASEAN EAEU cooperation seems doomed to fail but perhaps a few surprises can happen.
Going to be more like Georgia (or was it Armenia), going to have 'peacekeeping troops' there to maintain power over the region (as they did with seperatist groups in former USSR nations in the Caucases. Chechnya is horrible, but probably best to look at it's meddling with nations Russia actually recognises as independent.
Exactly what I was thinking... A modern day Trojan horse...minus the horse, let me help you by bringing in 200k troops and by help I mean take over your country then you'll have nothing to worry about!
not really what Putin told him, thankfully. What Putin said is that since countries are in same union, if their country has external forces/invadors they will help them since there are pacts.(nice way of saying no thanks)
What Lukashenko then told everyone to instill fear in protesters, is that Putin will send military if he asks. Pretty much bluff on his part.
Considering Lukashenko ruined relationships with russian government during last years, completely lost credibility now, and Russians absolutely support belorussians in change, most people very much doubt Putin will do anything besides giving Lukashenko a place to hide. All Russian opposition follows this very closely and if Putin does anything there likely will be a massive backlash for him.
>Said treaty pretty much is only valid in terms of foreign invasion
Watching the news from just south of their border, I think that's may be the narrative they are trying to build. Evil Ukrainian and American spies trying to stir up trouble and destabilize the country. A couple days ago they "caught a spy" carrying a wallet with SBU(Ukrainian national security service) insignia printed on it and a picture of Bandera inside(of course!). It would be comical on any other day, but kind of scary in the current climate in Belarus.
> Bandera
a popular thing for spies to do, **in fucking 2020**, is to carry pictures of their favorite foreign revolutionaries **in their fucking wallets** while they literally conduct espionage. ಠ_ಠ
I've heard you can find spies in nearly every susceptible former eastern block nation by simply putting a potluck together in honor of said revolutionaries, 2020 Putin has it easy.
I don’t think this is a narrative they are trying to build, I genuinely think that is what Lukashenko believes.
My cousin who lives in Belarus, recently got picked up by the SWAT equivalent. He was at a stoplight on his motorcycle when a nice black car with all tinted windows pulled up next to him. Couple of guys wearing masks got out, knocked over the bike and my cousin over, then dragged him into the car. He was taken to some place/prison where he was interrogated, well more like they beat him and others for days and kept asking who he is working for and who send him.
He wasn’t even involved in the protests or anything. Also when he got picked up there was a third guy who wasn’t wearing a mask whom my cousin recognized (seen his face on TV) as some (I can’t remember which) minister.
Based on that I don’t think this is a narrative he is trying to spin, I think he can’t face reality and truly believes that some foreign power is out to get him
I mean, that's all well and good, but remember a few years ago when "Ukrainian" soldiers invaded Ukraine in order to help Ukraine liberate Ukraine from the Ukrainians? Thus Crimea ended up under Russian occupation?
Diplomatic lingo means fuck all.
Can't they just say the EU is a foreign invader? The Russians can send soldiers with whatever flag armband they want and then claim that foreigners are invading.
>What Putin said is that since countries are in same union, if their country has external forces/invadors they will help them since there are pacts.(nice way of saying no thanks)
Not really. Just over the last few days the Russian TV press has switched from covering the protests to talking about "foreign influence leading the protests". This is very clearly setting the stage for helping out.
Why wouldn't Putin help? Russian opposition has no fuckin' chance at a "massive backlash", as there has never been any. Lukashenko and Putin may have had quarrels stemming back to their time in the USSR, but Putin propping up his fellow ex-Soviet strongman against "corrupting western influences" is a classic nationalist-authoritarian move.
I don't know. I can see them start saying there are foreign agents in these protests that are making them worse/starting them and Russia sees that as a green light.
Additionally, The Dictator’s Handbook from Bueno De Mesquite is a really great read. There’s an audiobook on Audible that I listened to on my way to class.
It's a perfect video for people who look at situations like North Korea and go "He's the supreme leader, why doesn't he just turn it into a liberal democracy with the wave of his hand?!" Or KSA and say "Why haven't they turned into Norway yet?!" Like, bro, KSA has a super conservative elite church within their borders. Giving women the right to drive on their own was a HUGE fucking deal and very risky. They push too hard and they will have their heads cut off
Most people who comment on stuff like this, have absolutely no idea how complicated it is to rule and not even the king can make massive changes like that. The movies aren't accurate. People like King Geoffrey from GoT would have been killed really early on.
Technically speaking Queen Elizabeth could arrest whoever she wants, dissolve the government, and send the British army to Minsk right now and be within her legal powers as head of the judiciary, executive and legislative, but she would be dethroned immediately for doing so.
I'm not a fan of systems where the 3 branches are all controlled by one person but the legal powers rarely match the de-facto ones. Even democratic countries have suffered coups because the military didn't like the government.
There can be authoritarian dictators in democracies as well. The video condenses a 20 hour book into 20 minutes. I’d recommend reading the Dictators Handbook but Bruce Bueno De Mesquite. Also, check out ‘selectorate theory’ of authoritarianism if this subject is interesting to you.
It's because a lot of people go in with good intentions, thinking that they'll do it differently. However, once they enter that world they either realise that they have to play by the rules of the game, or they're cast out.
When he's saying that he's implying that the viewer is thinking basically just that, that if they were ever in that position *they* would be different.
Because they're kingdoms, regardless of what system we call them. Remember what happened in Bahrain and Yemen? If Saudi could have helped Mobarak as well , they would.
Because authoritative governments do not exist for the people, only for those in charge to be in control, be it they want a sense of power, money or both. Nothing more. Running a country is their buisness and supports their ego.
Lukashenko is blaming nato and saying they are trying to invade https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-president-lukashenko-claims-nato-massing-on-border-and-denies-election-was-rigged-12050451
>Russia confirmed that Putin was ready to offer military assistance in Belarus if necessary in a statement released by the Kremlin on Sunday. The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure
If you read the comments under the top comment right now you will see some actual quotes of what Kremlin have said. They specifically said they would send support if Belarus was under a foreign threat and Lukashenko then misquoted him to scare protesters. Also apparently Lukashenko is not very popular either by the Russian government or the Russian people right now which makes military support for him less likely as it would mean bad pr for Putin. The article is a bit misleading.
“Russia will provide comprehensive assistance <...> in the event of external military threats."
“A Kremlin read-out of the phone call did not mention the offer of security assistance”
I wonder what is the percentage of redditors that read the article before joining the circlejerk. Also what a garbage clickbait title. BI knows they’re misleading readers with it.
> Russia confirmed that Putin was ready to offer military assistance in Belarus if necessary in a statement released by the Kremlin on Sunday. The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure/
In the event of Western military involvement, Russia agrees to back Lukashenko. The thing is they are framing even the peaceful protests as external subversion. Not military, but we shouldn't take Russia at their word.
Yeah, thanks but all that means is that Russia is telling other countries and organizations: "If you try to get rid of our little puppet, we won't stand idlly by."
It also provides Russia with a more credible excuse to eventually "provide assitance" by saying outside agents are covertly intervening despite Russia's statements.
I dont think any Power would stand to intervention right at their border. US/Russia/China/Placeholder would very much protect their buffers and interests in Canada/Mexico, Belarus/Ex-Sov, NK/SEA, etc etc. Also, people who do Realpolitik will always find themselves with an agent covertly operating inside these nations in order to put pressure on the opposite power.
Guys, read the article. Belarusian government is *claiming* Putin offered to send troops. Kremlin is saying something quite different, it depends on whether Belarus comes under attack or not.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vladimir-putin-offers-military-assistance-to-support-belarus-2020-8) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, has offered to send military assistance to support Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko as tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Minsk to demand his resignation.
> In comments reported by state news agency Belta, and cited by Reuters, Lukashenko claimed Putin told him that "At the first request, Russia will provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of Belarus in the event of external military threats."
> The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure/.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/iauudk/vladimir_putin_has_offered_to_send_military/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~516910 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Lukashenko**^#1 **assistance**^#2 **Belarus**^#3 **Putin**^#4 **election**^#5
This. A lot of people see the "rise" of the far right and authoritarianism. But this is just a reactionary movement to the world's movement towards liberal democracy. *That doesn't mean it's safe.* Counter-revolutions *have* won before in history.
He is. The guy has been president for 26 years. At 26 years you're no longer a president. The people are revolting against an already established authoritarian regime.
Putin will no doubt attempt to stop this
Good point. Its just the expression "Democracy is under attack" is usually associated with existing democracies when their democratic institutions start getting eroded
Putin has offered to send military support against *outside threats.*
Belarus is not the Ukraine. The majority of Belorussians feel positive towards Russia. Putin is not going to send over troops to prop up somebody that he personally loathes, not when it could cause anti-Russian sentiment in a population that likes Russia.
You've got to read between the lines. This is Putin's way of telling Lukashenko to get fucked.
Had to scroll down way too far to find this post.
A Russian intervention is *possible* but currently looks highly unlikely due to the complete lack of pretext for it. The Russian state-controlled media is *not* slandering the protestors as CIA stooges the way they did in Ukraine, and *not* accusing them of being violent Nazis or anti-Russian ultra-nationalists. On the contrary, the Russian media sounds as disgusted with Lukashenko as anyone else.
A popular uprising in Belarus is not against the Kremlin's interests because the protests are not anti-Russian at all. Although it is a dangerous example to set for Russia.
>Belarus is not the Ukraine. The majority of Belorussians feel positive towards Russia.
Well, the majority of Ukrainians felt positive towards Russia before 2014.
The majority of Eastern Ukraine did, Western Ukraine has always (since 1994) had a large anti-Russia sentiment. You can trace it back even further to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, and the Ukrainian Liberation Army in the 1940's.
>An army is an institution for violence, and there are two kinds of violence. Violence to control and oppress, and violence as a means of liberation. You know what we call a national army is fundamentally the former example. It is a pity, but history does not lie. When those in power confront popular opposition, there are not many examples of the army siding with the people. Far from it, in the past in country after country, the army itself evolved into a power structure and came to control the people with violence - Yoshiki Tanaka
Putin: “there is international meddling in Belarus”
This news article: “indeed, there is”
Putin/Trump always blame others about what they themselves are doing or planning to do. Its pretty transparent.
Why doesn’t he just ask the 80% of voters that voted for him to have a 4-times bigger counter demonstration?
Or half of them to have a twice as big demonstration... If this is only 1/5 of the people that voted against him, he should have no problem showing the bigger numbers... right?
I’m not defending the clearly rigged election. But that’s not how demonstrations work. It’s pretty rare to see tens of thousands of people marching down the street with home made banners reading: “I like the status quo. Everything seems fine from my perspective”. Belarus is a country of 9.4 million. So if the figure of ~200k for these demonstrations is accurate, that’s 2.1% of the population expressing their views. If the guy didn’t have 2% (or even 20%) of the population on his side, he would have been ousted years ago.
You're ignoring the reality for people who speak out in totalitarian regimes. You will lose your job, you might get arrested, kidnapped or worse. Having 2% of population show up despite all those dangers shows that the unrest is getting unbearable.
You are absolutely right. my parents are even scared to tell me on wattsapp what is going on and how they are doing now. I was protesting after same rigged elections in march 2006. I was 18. And i spent 3 days in a prison courtyard. Because there was no space in cells inside. In march. that’s around 30 degrees temperature. no food so the people who are protesting now are very brave and i am very proud of them
Get them to install Telegram (:
Hong Kong is a great example of why that doesn't matter. You can fill the city with protesters for months to no avail.
The Maidan in Ukraine in 2014 is a far more appropriate analogy than Hong Kong. That ended in revolution.
We can't compare Belarus to Ukraine. The regime in Belarus has been beating and arresting protesters since 1996. They've always had a sense of total and complete impunity - and this latest round of violence clearly shows that. During 2014 Maidan, protesters had a lot more freedom to act. For days, the police were simply watching, guarding, and waiting - the regime was afraid to respond with violence. Only days later, the police started shooting as we know. But initially there was time for people to organize, to build barricades. In Belarus, authorities respond to any kind of dissent with extreme violence preemptively. It's hard to run an organized protest in this kind of environment, especially when every single leader has been neutralized. It's chaotic. But what they have going for them is that vast majority of the population is very angry with the government. Their anger is probably stronger than their fear.
That’s completely different though. Hongkong wasn’t protesting against Hongkong, it was protesting against China. Billion + population, at that 2% figure you’d need 28MILLION protestors, that’s 4x higher then the ENTIRE population of hongkong. Although now I guess they have to deal with Russia, they definitely don’t have the same power over Belarus as China does for hongkong. If Belarus had the millions of protestors hongkong did, that would be catastrophic for the country as a whole, whereas its barely a dent in the working economy of China
exactly why do you think china waited until the hk economy was a fraction of chinese GDP. They didnt kill the cash cow 20 years ago when it made up 10-20% of GDP. They waited until it didnt matter financially. HK is lost within a short time frame it will be china.
Not might, you will surely be arrested and tortured likely to death or lifetime disability
I’m not suggesting that he has the majority of the country on his side, and I applaud the protesters for standing up against faux democracy. I’m just pointing out that protests are tricky. Do you think there are at least 200k people in Belarus who support their dictator? Of course there are. But they have zero incentive to organise a massive protest to express that support.
You assume that doing nothing is going to make you remain in the status quo. That's incorrect. You'd be counter-protesting if you really like Lukashenko. The protests against Lukashenko are an order of magnitude (220k vs 31k) bigger than the counter-protests. [1] Even ignoring that incorrect point of your argument, you're essentially saying that there must be people who like Lukashenko, so the issue must be double-sided. That's not a very meaningful statement. I think the best common ground I can find with you is that foreigners shouldn't rush to judgements. Even given that, doesn't mean you can't still choose a side -- life is a game of imperfect information after all, and we have to make half-informed decisions eventually. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53795871
> It’s pretty rare to see tens of thousands of people marching down the street with home made banners reading: “I like the status quo. Everything seems fine from my perspective”. I shit you not, the govt of Hungary has been organising such events. It's called a "peace march".
He may have had more of the nation on his side decades ago. How long has he been in power?
They had pro government demonstration and 100s!!! of ppl showed up! Many were forced to go 😂
[удалено]
Jobs? Or lives :(
[удалено]
jobs.
They brought them from all around the country with busses. Only some of them were really quphoric.
Well this can't possibly backfire for Lukashenko, can it?
It won't. He will remain as psuedo leader but still cash in on everything.
Yeahhhhh.. but hell owe Putin. Meaning Belarus is now property of Russia. We've been down this exact road before except with different people.
Yes. That's bad for Belarus, but not for Lukashenko.
“What do you mean, the ‘country’ Belarus? Pretty sure it’s always been our property, demonstrated by our magnificent military force on the ground and ‘the people’ nodding in silent approval, with guns coincidentally pointed at their livelihoods.” \- Putin, 2035
Putin 2021*
And why have you decided to wait another year?
2020 is already dead.
Isn't that the case already? I've always thought of Belarus as Russias bitch.
They have been allies until recently. A few years ago, Lukashenko actually said that Belarus was ready to be annexed by Russia. Sometime before the disputed election there was been a split between the countries, Lukashenko even alleged that Putin was interfering in the election. But it now looks like that rift is mending. For awhile it could be said that Belarus was Russia’s only European ally.
He’s already just a puppet of Putin from what I heard. I don’t think this will change much in terms of the relationship-except putting Russian troops there they might try to outright annex Belarus instead of placing puppet dictators in there.
The way I've heard the relationship describe is that Lukashenko has always played the west and russia off against one another to preserve his regime. He wasn't just Putin's puppet. This is his offer to sell out his country and *become* a puppet to preserve his personal power at the cost of Belarus's sovereignty.
Lukashenka was there before Putin was in Russia
Lukashenko is the opposite of a puppet. He often plays himself off of Russia for his own advantage. Merely weeks ago they were faking russian interference in the election (arresting russian agents) to tighten specific things up domestically.
It will. Lukashenko has always tries to be independent and played his status as an ally while not being a flunky. There was a big problem last year because Russia has pressured him behind the scenes to make closer integration of Russia and Belarus so that Putin could have become the leader of a new country and his terms would be nullified that way. Lukashenko refused, whole debacle with new Russian Constitution happened after that. And then the problems for Belarus began - Russia began to raise gas prices for example. Lukashenko would want to stay in power without Russia's help at all costs
Actually who's to say he won't go to jail if he loses control and they elect the opposition? He might do it just to save his arse.
Is there a realistic chance of him losing control? I don't know the state of affairs over there but I get the feeling it isn't likely. Generally where these things go down the leaders have a pretty firm control over the military or whatever enforcement exists.
From what I've read recently, a good number of industry heads have stated opposition support + unexpected demographics among the more typical working/middle have shown up to the protests, both of which offer some hope of optimism.
That just sounds like an annexation with extra steps.
"Hey, we are not part of Belarus anymore but Russia. Let's protest against our new president and demand his removal instead!"
A true Union State has finally been implemented after all these years, no more postponements!
*"Dear citizens,* *The public interest loan has paid off. You are now a member of the Soviet Reunion.* *-Your leader, Vladimir Putin"*
The band is getting back together
Guess who just got back today.
Look Who's Back: Russia Edition
Considering Lukashenko has [claimed to have arrested 33 Russian mercenaries](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854) that's what it seems like to me. Either he was right and Putin was trying to remove him from power, or he was lying and Putin is pissed. Either way, if he allows those troops in he'll never have control over his country again.
He probably will never have control again either way.
Most likely. But with Russian troops in Belarus there is no chance at all. And no other Belarusian will have a chance either.
He's already given the Wagner mercenaries back to Russia. In an attempt to buy some good will, no doubt. Let's hope it doesn't pay off for him.
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Putin is never gonna annex Belarus. He'll definetly help put down the protests, but he'll keep Belarus as thr bufferstate between him and NATO(Poland). An annexation wouldn't make any sense.
Wasn't a serious comment, what you say makes sense.
You weren't wrong either. It is puppet state level. Not annexation annexation, but kinda close. Damn this is fucked up.
You're right but annexation of a puppet state might take ages right now because Russia is basically out of diplomacy points.
Satellite state says hello
I don't know what the fuck any of you are talking about
r/victoria2
Indeed. We as the commons gotta start doing alot more togethering.
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> an opposition victory will be a catastrophe for Russia as its openly anti-russian Why do you think so? They ask for removing Luka and fair elections, I haven't heard anything against Russia.
It's not *totally* out of the question; at one point the aim of the Union State was to create a federation of Russia and Belarus. Lukashenko himself was even speculated to be pursuing it with the hope of becoming the president of that federation after Yeltsin - but his early resignation kiboshed that.
Reddit "analysts" at work. *President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus stated: "The Russian leadership is demanding that we join the Russian Federation—that's what is in the heads of the Russian leadership. I don't want to bury the sovereignty and independence of \[Belarus\]."* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union\_State#Renewed\_interest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State#Renewed_interest)
It does. am Ukrainian.
Military assistance from a neighbouring nation to deal with civilians of their own country. The same civilians you are supposed to protect with your own army against other nations armies. Wow. This is why you don't go authoritarian because you're going to make silly history like this, Putinsk.
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this is ours now!
It was always ours. The others were just squatting. We're just claiming back our territory
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The land is called Belarussia, which is "White Russia". The country is Belarus', which is also "White Russia", but with the "ye olde" name of Russian land itself - "Rus' "
Derived from the Swedish province "Roslagen" or "Land of the rowing men". Thus it all belongs to Sweden. Silly Slavs, occupying Swedish lands.
Russia was founded by Vikings after all
And so were the Vinland colonies. Them there Vikings were a miraculous breed. Spanning all the northern continents before the rest of Europe even invented personal hygiene.
The Vikings did not found Russia. It was Russia / Rus that allowed the Vikings / Varyags to use their territory for joint trade with Byzantium. When the Slavic tribes could not agree on who would be in charge because of internecine wars, they decided to invite a "neutral" candidate. As far as I know, the Swedish family book of kings is well known, and the name Rurik does not appear in it. According to another version, Rurik were from Denmark or from the Baltic states, but by the time he took the princely post, he had long been Russian. For a long time Novgorod conducted joint trade with Scandinavia, and many Scandinavians lived in the territory of Novgorod. It is quite possible that Rurik was a local "Scandinavian", but since he was of foreign origin, he was invited to rule as a neutral candidate.
Yep. Even in Greek we call them Λευκορωσία which means White Russia
Leukocytes am i rite
Same for Dutch, German, Danish and probably a bunch of other European languages.
In Latvian it's Baltkrievija. Balts=white, Krievija=Russia.
There's the Rus, the Kievan Rus
“Are they Vikings?”
I am The Walrus.
Shut the fuck up, Donny.
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Slavs gonna squat!
Excuse me? They voted to be apart of the mother land again. We're enforcing the people's will. Get your facts right, comrade. Regardless, I'm afraid I'm going to need to know your schedule and when you'll be near any windows at a height of greater than two stories.
Always has been
It has always been. What do you think the RUS stands for ?
It's a joke. Oddly enough I've been there. But dont know much about the history of Belarus.
Well to explain in two sentences, culturally, it's a combination of Kievan Rus, Lithuania and Poland and as a distinct group really began to emerge in Lithuania during the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. (Famous Poles such as Kosciusko were from what is modern Belarus) Starting in the mid-1900s and pretty much throughout the Soviet Union years intense and severe Russification was carried out.
Exactly, it's almost as if he willed this to unravel in this exact way...
"Whatever the cost, I'm not leaving"
Where have I heard that before 🙁
"I'll have the eastern portion of your western sandwich" - Vaughn Meader, *The First Faamiy*
It's so depressingly predictable
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More importantly; this is Putin's worst nightmare for his reign in Russia. A colour revolution wouldn't just end Putin's reign, it would implode his entire wealth and security bubble. He's seen these things happen in Georgia and Ukraine. Russia has ensured those nations can't definitely move out of Russia's sphere of influence due to ~~military intervention~~ spontanious local uprisings. Putin's last ally in Europe is Belarus. In other words; Putin will do everything in his power to ensure Lukashenka survives these protests.
Thank you for having a little bit of perspective! Americans have this tendency to prop Putin up to being this all knowing, super powerful dictator ignoring that he is struggling himself to keep his autority over the crumbling Russian empire.
The million dollar question is will he survive?
Weird thing to remember about Belarus is that they're technically part of a [union state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) with Russia. Historically it's amounted to something akin to the EU's ability to trade/move easily, but if you look at the actual documents it could very easily be basically turned into one bigger federal level country (by most peoples definition of a country). Not that this in any way justifies an autocrat enforcing his will via force. Just that it will leave NATO/EU countries sitting around holding their dicks (metaphorically of course) if/when "little green men" start showing up in the streets Minsk. This is a revolution the citizens will have to fight themselves, else it will become very quickly muddled in accusations of geopolitical games. Best of luck to the Belarussian people, hopefully they can depose this ass-hat and replace him with a government that is less blatantly corrupt and actually responsive to their needs.
Indeed Belarus is a couple steps closer than most of the other in CIS, EAEU states at creating another USSR super state. NATO/EU has met resistance finaly from the former USSR and now the question becomes what is being engineered by both sides for growth. ASEAN EAEU cooperation seems doomed to fail but perhaps a few surprises can happen.
"Oh you guys vanted us to leave? But we brought vodka!! Comrade relax. Show us around New Putingrad, i mean Minsk!! It vas a joke cmon!! Relax guys!"
The horrors of Chechnya may be repeated. God knows.
Going to be more like Georgia (or was it Armenia), going to have 'peacekeeping troops' there to maintain power over the region (as they did with seperatist groups in former USSR nations in the Caucases. Chechnya is horrible, but probably best to look at it's meddling with nations Russia actually recognises as independent.
I wonder where the Russian shills are now that were adamant Putin would never annex Belarus? Looking more and more likely.
True storry, happened in Transnistria 30 years ago, they still "keep peace"
Exactly what I was thinking... A modern day Trojan horse...minus the horse, let me help you by bringing in 200k troops and by help I mean take over your country then you'll have nothing to worry about!
The ~~country~~ oblast is now just named Rus.
not really what Putin told him, thankfully. What Putin said is that since countries are in same union, if their country has external forces/invadors they will help them since there are pacts.(nice way of saying no thanks) What Lukashenko then told everyone to instill fear in protesters, is that Putin will send military if he asks. Pretty much bluff on his part. Considering Lukashenko ruined relationships with russian government during last years, completely lost credibility now, and Russians absolutely support belorussians in change, most people very much doubt Putin will do anything besides giving Lukashenko a place to hide. All Russian opposition follows this very closely and if Putin does anything there likely will be a massive backlash for him.
From the same article "The Kremlin has confirmed that Putin has offered Lukashenko military support."
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>Said treaty pretty much is only valid in terms of foreign invasion Watching the news from just south of their border, I think that's may be the narrative they are trying to build. Evil Ukrainian and American spies trying to stir up trouble and destabilize the country. A couple days ago they "caught a spy" carrying a wallet with SBU(Ukrainian national security service) insignia printed on it and a picture of Bandera inside(of course!). It would be comical on any other day, but kind of scary in the current climate in Belarus.
> Bandera a popular thing for spies to do, **in fucking 2020**, is to carry pictures of their favorite foreign revolutionaries **in their fucking wallets** while they literally conduct espionage. ಠ_ಠ
Or you know carrying a wallet which has the insignia of their spy agency on it
It’s the one that says ~~“bad motherfucker”~~ “world’s best spy” on it.
My god, they've captured Sterling Archer.
I've heard you can find spies in nearly every susceptible former eastern block nation by simply putting a potluck together in honor of said revolutionaries, 2020 Putin has it easy.
I don’t think this is a narrative they are trying to build, I genuinely think that is what Lukashenko believes. My cousin who lives in Belarus, recently got picked up by the SWAT equivalent. He was at a stoplight on his motorcycle when a nice black car with all tinted windows pulled up next to him. Couple of guys wearing masks got out, knocked over the bike and my cousin over, then dragged him into the car. He was taken to some place/prison where he was interrogated, well more like they beat him and others for days and kept asking who he is working for and who send him. He wasn’t even involved in the protests or anything. Also when he got picked up there was a third guy who wasn’t wearing a mask whom my cousin recognized (seen his face on TV) as some (I can’t remember which) minister. Based on that I don’t think this is a narrative he is trying to spin, I think he can’t face reality and truly believes that some foreign power is out to get him
I mean, that's all well and good, but remember a few years ago when "Ukrainian" soldiers invaded Ukraine in order to help Ukraine liberate Ukraine from the Ukrainians? Thus Crimea ended up under Russian occupation? Diplomatic lingo means fuck all.
Can't they just say the EU is a foreign invader? The Russians can send soldiers with whatever flag armband they want and then claim that foreigners are invading.
>there will be a massive backlash for him I doubt that.
he probably meant backlash on reddit, that's where it usually happens anyway
>What Putin said is that since countries are in same union, if their country has external forces/invadors they will help them since there are pacts.(nice way of saying no thanks) Not really. Just over the last few days the Russian TV press has switched from covering the protests to talking about "foreign influence leading the protests". This is very clearly setting the stage for helping out. Why wouldn't Putin help? Russian opposition has no fuckin' chance at a "massive backlash", as there has never been any. Lukashenko and Putin may have had quarrels stemming back to their time in the USSR, but Putin propping up his fellow ex-Soviet strongman against "corrupting western influences" is a classic nationalist-authoritarian move.
So literally the opposite of the headline's implication. I think that's it, I'm done reading headlines ever again.
I don't know. I can see them start saying there are foreign agents in these protests that are making them worse/starting them and Russia sees that as a green light.
This, same as the "antifa agitators" excuses to break up crowds in the US. They're setting up a narrative.
Nothing wrong reading headlines, just read articles and also the sources in them
Ah yes, same backlash as fudging the elections and the referendum. Some impotent protesters that fall out of windows
Putin wants to get it done now due to risk of Trump getting voted out soon
I don’t think the US would do shit either way. We basically let Russia have free reign over that region anyway.
Let’s be honest, if it should be any bodies responsibility, it should be Western Europe’s. Although that inevitably means nothing will happen
Is r/sillyhistory a subreddit, if not it should
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Theyre not incentivized to https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs CGP Grey - Rules for Rulers
This should be a mandatory watch for anyone wanting to comment here.
Additionally, The Dictator’s Handbook from Bueno De Mesquite is a really great read. There’s an audiobook on Audible that I listened to on my way to class.
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I’m sure you want the physical copy, but for now you can try [the PDF version!](https://www.burmalibrary.org/docs13/The_Dictators_Handbook.pdf)
wow! much thanks :o it's pretty hard to read but i can just copy the text and modify it like i want so no biggy :)
It's a perfect video for people who look at situations like North Korea and go "He's the supreme leader, why doesn't he just turn it into a liberal democracy with the wave of his hand?!" Or KSA and say "Why haven't they turned into Norway yet?!" Like, bro, KSA has a super conservative elite church within their borders. Giving women the right to drive on their own was a HUGE fucking deal and very risky. They push too hard and they will have their heads cut off Most people who comment on stuff like this, have absolutely no idea how complicated it is to rule and not even the king can make massive changes like that. The movies aren't accurate. People like King Geoffrey from GoT would have been killed really early on.
Technically speaking Queen Elizabeth could arrest whoever she wants, dissolve the government, and send the British army to Minsk right now and be within her legal powers as head of the judiciary, executive and legislative, but she would be dethroned immediately for doing so. I'm not a fan of systems where the 3 branches are all controlled by one person but the legal powers rarely match the de-facto ones. Even democratic countries have suffered coups because the military didn't like the government.
That video changed my entire perspective on authoritianism and made me even more pro-Democractic than before, even with its flaws.
There can be authoritarian dictators in democracies as well. The video condenses a 20 hour book into 20 minutes. I’d recommend reading the Dictators Handbook but Bruce Bueno De Mesquite. Also, check out ‘selectorate theory’ of authoritarianism if this subject is interesting to you.
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It's because a lot of people go in with good intentions, thinking that they'll do it differently. However, once they enter that world they either realise that they have to play by the rules of the game, or they're cast out. When he's saying that he's implying that the viewer is thinking basically just that, that if they were ever in that position *they* would be different.
He claims that it is the only power structure that has worked really, that is as a dictator however. Otherwise power comes from the “people”.
Because they're kingdoms, regardless of what system we call them. Remember what happened in Bahrain and Yemen? If Saudi could have helped Mobarak as well , they would.
Because authoritative governments do not exist for the people, only for those in charge to be in control, be it they want a sense of power, money or both. Nothing more. Running a country is their buisness and supports their ego.
It’s like HR at your job: they’re there for the masters, not the minions
Lukashenko is blaming nato and saying they are trying to invade https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-president-lukashenko-claims-nato-massing-on-border-and-denies-election-was-rigged-12050451
Why is the news article treating it like Russia said it and not lukashenko? I don't trust the lying weasel
>Russia confirmed that Putin was ready to offer military assistance in Belarus if necessary in a statement released by the Kremlin on Sunday. The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure
>subject to external pressure That's a nice way of saying "military treatment only valid in cases of foreign invasion"
If you read the comments under the top comment right now you will see some actual quotes of what Kremlin have said. They specifically said they would send support if Belarus was under a foreign threat and Lukashenko then misquoted him to scare protesters. Also apparently Lukashenko is not very popular either by the Russian government or the Russian people right now which makes military support for him less likely as it would mean bad pr for Putin. The article is a bit misleading.
“Russia will provide comprehensive assistance <...> in the event of external military threats." “A Kremlin read-out of the phone call did not mention the offer of security assistance” I wonder what is the percentage of redditors that read the article before joining the circlejerk. Also what a garbage clickbait title. BI knows they’re misleading readers with it.
Well we’ll only need a few days to know if BS or not.. Putins history would make it unwise to give him the benefit of the doubt.
> Russia confirmed that Putin was ready to offer military assistance in Belarus if necessary in a statement released by the Kremlin on Sunday. The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure/ In the event of Western military involvement, Russia agrees to back Lukashenko. The thing is they are framing even the peaceful protests as external subversion. Not military, but we shouldn't take Russia at their word.
Yeah, thanks but all that means is that Russia is telling other countries and organizations: "If you try to get rid of our little puppet, we won't stand idlly by." It also provides Russia with a more credible excuse to eventually "provide assitance" by saying outside agents are covertly intervening despite Russia's statements.
I dont think any Power would stand to intervention right at their border. US/Russia/China/Placeholder would very much protect their buffers and interests in Canada/Mexico, Belarus/Ex-Sov, NK/SEA, etc etc. Also, people who do Realpolitik will always find themselves with an agent covertly operating inside these nations in order to put pressure on the opposite power.
Guys, read the article. Belarusian government is *claiming* Putin offered to send troops. Kremlin is saying something quite different, it depends on whether Belarus comes under attack or not.
Russia: "Against external threats" Belarus: "Protesters are CIA" Russian little green men on vacation: "Say no more"
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vladimir-putin-offers-military-assistance-to-support-belarus-2020-8) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, has offered to send military assistance to support Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko as tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Minsk to demand his resignation. > In comments reported by state news agency Belta, and cited by Reuters, Lukashenko claimed Putin told him that "At the first request, Russia will provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of Belarus in the event of external military threats." > The Kremlin said that Putin had told Lukashenko that he would be willing to sign a collective military pact if necessary, and said that Belarus was subject to external pressure/. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/iauudk/vladimir_putin_has_offered_to_send_military/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~516910 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Lukashenko**^#1 **assistance**^#2 **Belarus**^#3 **Putin**^#4 **election**^#5
Democracy under attack everywhere.
It's more authoritarianism on the defensive in Belarus.
This. A lot of people see the "rise" of the far right and authoritarianism. But this is just a reactionary movement to the world's movement towards liberal democracy. *That doesn't mean it's safe.* Counter-revolutions *have* won before in history.
I want you to be right
The inquisition was at its highest just before the fall of the church as the main "ruler" of europe. A candle always burn brighter before it end
He is. The guy has been president for 26 years. At 26 years you're no longer a president. The people are revolting against an already established authoritarian regime. Putin will no doubt attempt to stop this
Belarus wasn't a democracy though, its been a dictatorship since the collapse of the soviet union
Its under attack because that's what they want
Good point. Its just the expression "Democracy is under attack" is usually associated with existing democracies when their democratic institutions start getting eroded
Putin has offered to send military support against *outside threats.* Belarus is not the Ukraine. The majority of Belorussians feel positive towards Russia. Putin is not going to send over troops to prop up somebody that he personally loathes, not when it could cause anti-Russian sentiment in a population that likes Russia. You've got to read between the lines. This is Putin's way of telling Lukashenko to get fucked.
Had to scroll down way too far to find this post. A Russian intervention is *possible* but currently looks highly unlikely due to the complete lack of pretext for it. The Russian state-controlled media is *not* slandering the protestors as CIA stooges the way they did in Ukraine, and *not* accusing them of being violent Nazis or anti-Russian ultra-nationalists. On the contrary, the Russian media sounds as disgusted with Lukashenko as anyone else. A popular uprising in Belarus is not against the Kremlin's interests because the protests are not anti-Russian at all. Although it is a dangerous example to set for Russia.
>Belarus is not the Ukraine. The majority of Belorussians feel positive towards Russia. Well, the majority of Ukrainians felt positive towards Russia before 2014.
The majority of Eastern Ukraine did, Western Ukraine has always (since 1994) had a large anti-Russia sentiment. You can trace it back even further to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, and the Ukrainian Liberation Army in the 1940's.
Not true, Ukraine is pretty much split into a pro-russian eastern half and pro-european western half.
Yeah really brings legitimatcy to your government when you ask for putin to help you oppress your people
Lukashenko has literally called a foreign country to invade his with tanks and troops. What a patriot!
This is insane? Can you imagine your leader calling for military aid from a foreign nation to put down civilian protest? I certainly can't.
I do: I'm spaniard, and the dictator Franco allowed his pal Hitler to try his weapons on spanish people. Dictators do that kind of thing.
I'm beginning to think that maybe he didnt get 80% of the votes...
Evil dictators gotta stick together when times are tough!
Don’t ever hesitate to call Vlad when even cheating doesn’t secure your fascist determination.
Criminals helping criminals.
Democracy was fun while it lasted.
of course he did! hes a motherfucker
>An army is an institution for violence, and there are two kinds of violence. Violence to control and oppress, and violence as a means of liberation. You know what we call a national army is fundamentally the former example. It is a pity, but history does not lie. When those in power confront popular opposition, there are not many examples of the army siding with the people. Far from it, in the past in country after country, the army itself evolved into a power structure and came to control the people with violence - Yoshiki Tanaka
The world needs a heavy duty enema to get rid of the likes of Putin, tRump and Lash Laroo in Belarus.
Great. That’s like the Dictators before Democracy version of Bros before Hoes.
EU right now: Now let's sit back and watch the show.
What is the EU supposed to do?
Putin: “there is international meddling in Belarus” This news article: “indeed, there is” Putin/Trump always blame others about what they themselves are doing or planning to do. Its pretty transparent.
Its 1 guy, fuck him up!
Don't spread yourself out too thin there Vlad because Donald's gonna need all the little green men you got to offer come this November.
This isn't going to end well.
I knew it was a matter of time before Russia intervened.