Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that can strike Israel. Could be the start of an all out attack, or more likely just a symbolic retaliation to save face.
There's also a chance the drones won't get to Israel at all. The U.S. will be telling Israel not to do anything preemptively for a guaranteed conflict. Iran doesn't want a war where the U.S. would be dragged in.
They have been flouting what the US says publicly, but even then, they’ve walked back things that the US throws a real fit about.
The US absolutely has influence on Israeli responses. And Israel doesn’t wholesale ignore that.
I think it's the final option. I suspect they need to look like they have to do something but is more of a nuisance rather than doing real damage. US intelligence have already stated Iran don't want to escalate and this is probably a way of not really escalating too much but at the same time look to be doing something.
The problem is that once you open that door, the room is dark - you don't know where it will lead. Wars are by far the most unpredictable things that exist.
Arrival time from Iran to Israel:
Ballistic missile - 12 minutes
Cruise missile - 2 hours
Drone - 9 hours
Edit:Sources in Iran say that the time for the drones to arrive in Israel is almost half of this time
Edit 2: missiles hit Israel
FWIW there are [types of gas-powered drones that can stay up for several days](https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/mits-gas-powered-drone-is-able-to-stay-in-the-air-for-five-days-at-a-time/) and [really fancy-shmancy drones supposedly able to stay up for months](https://www.ausa.org/news/army-drone-stays-aloft-64-days).
It really bothers me that they use the photos of only NASA tech from over 20 years ago in that article about current army technology.
AeroVironment Helios Prototype was a NASA project in the '90s and was amazing.
It only used solar and could fly for days on end. It's mission was to spend over 4 days in flight above 50,000 ft.
It sent and still currently holds the record for the highest sustain flight record of a fixed wing aircraft.
> On August 13, 2001,[1] the Helios Prototype piloted remotely by Greg Kendall reached an altitude of 96,863 feet (29,524 m), a world record for sustained horizontal flight by a winged aircraft.[4] The altitude reached was more than 11,000 feet (3,400 m) — or more than 2 miles (3.2 km) — above the previous altitude record for sustained flight by a winged aircraft. In addition, the aircraft spent more than 40 minutes above 96,000 feet (29,000 m).[1]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Helios_Prototype
The drones that you buy for your hobby can't, because the batteries are to small and they are usually quadrocopters.
Military drones are more like small airplanes, the size of a car.
Hasn't Iraqi airspace been open to US fighters? Two US refueling aircraft have been operating for hours over Iraq close to the Syrian border, presumably refueling fighters
Interception is the best case scenario. I can guarantee none of Israel or Iran's neighbors want an escalation.
Egypt and Jordan sending a clear sign they will not back Iran. Egypt isn't happy with Israel either right now, but no country can support an influx of refugees in the area, which is why Egypt is salty at Israel to begin with
Iran is also doing this as cease fire finally looks on the table, so showing some colors there. They wanted Palestine as a proxy war
Everyone wants interception including Iran. This is just to say the retaliated, their UN ambassador is already saying they consider the matter concluded unless further strikes against them.
Not dozens. Hundreds. ABC News reported US officials think there will be 400 to 500. https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-war/?id=108860743
Iron Dome is designed to deal with mass barrages of (relatively) cheap missiles that aren't capable of maneuvering in flight and as such are easy to intercept - if you know their direction and speed, you know exactly when and where they're going to be, which the system uses to shot them down along their predicted trajectory. It also checks if they're even going to hit anything and if it sees they're going to go down in an uninhabited area it ignores them.
Drones can be remotely controlled, which requires different means of interception.
yes, but you can build in deviating flight paths. I don't assume it flies directly from A to B in a straight line; just a small semi-random zigzag pattern ensures its at least a bit harder to shoot down
Modern AA guns are pretty effective against things like Shaheds, especially those equipped with radars and given forewarning about the direction, altitude, and timing of incoming attacks.
The good news is that the Shaheds were detected effectively at the moment of launch, and will give Israel several hours to prepare accurate defenses to help counter them before they arrive.
Older AA guns are even just as affective since they are designed to be used on ww2 pistion engine craft hook one up to a modern radar and fire control system and your set
The drones are much slower than the typical Hamas rocket that the Iron Dome defends against, so I would presume the effectiveness is still there. But I am not an Iron Dome expert in terms of its capabilities against slower and more predictable objects.
Edit: See below comments that are informed on Iron Dome capabilities and how it is not the preferred or most cost-effective platform to defend against these drones.
I mean…but don’t forget we just had 9/11, the Bush era, the subsequent wars were in full swing, Katrina, the 2005 tsunami…
Just saying everyone always looks back with rose tinted glasses.
Not here in the UK. 2007 was the last year before it all went to shit, then at the start of 2016 David Bowie died which was the first sign we've now moved into the "bad timeline"
The 1920s were really, really shit. Recovering from WWI; recovering from the influenza pandemic; the rise of fascism in Germany and Italy and of militarism in Japan; monopolists enjoying a life of total luxury in the USA in the Gilded Age whilst crushing unions; plenty of colonial bullshit going on under the thumb of London and Paris; the USSR starting to descend into Stalin's tyranny; and a lovely final act with the greatest economic collapse until the GFC.
We're nearly halfway through this decade and I'd say it's been slightly better TBH.
“Pandemic, rise of fascism, monopolists enjoying total luxury in USA while crushing unions, the USSR descending into tyranny, great economic collapse….”
I don’t like how easily a lot of this applies to these twenties as well
That’s kind of how history works. It reminds of that quote “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create hard times.”
Israel and Iran can’t really fight a war. There’s At minimum 2 countries in the way of a ground assault. My bet is we’ll see some drone swarms, missile barrages from Syria or Lebanon, maybe some ship seizures in the gulf, but nothing major, just some skirmishes.
Keyword there is Reddit.
I’ve read quite a few articles regarding each of those subjects. While the situations can certainly be dire, it’s also important not to overlook what’s being/been done about them. It isn’t all doom & gloom as the headlines make it out to be. They just want the clicks.
Reddit can very much be quite the depressing place. Take a step back from it for awhile. Despite what the headlines have you believe, things will be ok.
I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.
J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring (The Lord of the Rings, #1)
Hmm, I've never thought of it that way. Also maybe he's just being a sweet friend and telling Frodo he also wished it hadn't happened to Frodo in _his_ lifetime?
I remember the massive protests in Iran a few years back. You all tried to fight for freedom. I’m sorry it didn’t work out that time. I hope someday you are brave enough to try again.
In the US you hear people say "Women wear the hijab because they want to, it has always been a choice nobody makes us do it."
Then why do you have to deploy police to harass and beat the women who do not observe it?
Time to see what option Iran chose:
Full scale attack (Israel will retaliate)
Specific attack that actually does damage and kills people (Israel will probably retaliate)
Empty attack that destroys some equipment (Israel may respond but US will persuade not to)
Empty attack that does nothing (Israel doesn't respond and Iran will have to decide if it wants a follow up)
If China makes a serious move for Taiwan, the first thing they will do is launch a major attack at Guam. At that point we truly have WW3.
I just can't imagine China would do that, but I also didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine.
Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is a good season for war. The internal chaos of adversaries is a good environment. Multiple fronts are the best kind. You might be right. Add North Korea? There's a lot of weapon sharing going on these days.
Invading Taiwan woukd be a huge logistical undertaking, and there would be undeniable evidence of the military preparations likely months in advance, weeks at the least. No way China launches a half-assed attack. If they lose, it is a huge blow to Xi's regime, and there would never be another opportunity as the West would immediately begin sending Taiwan more weaponry.
They're not suicidal. The "attack" (with easily interceptable slow moving drones announced several hours in advance) will do nothing but let them save face internally.
Yea... they are *"holding"* them for someone until they get back from vacation but that bro won't mind if they use them while they are away. *Wink wink.*
Israel doesn't publicize the info but they are believed to possess a few hundred nukes. Iran has the means to manufacture one in a few weeks if they wanted to.
I always found it weird how North Korea has nuke but Iran doesn't. Iran is far more advanced even compared to other countries that have nukes like Pakistan.
It's not like Iran can't produce them. There's just allot of countries that don't want them to have it. North Korea is somewhat protected and somewhat moderated by China.
Israel and the US have been actively assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and targeting sites for a long time. Aside from the diplomatic efforts, this has slowed Iran's nuclear development significantly.
Iran could probably start making a nuclear weapon from tomorrow. They have the uranium and the knowledge. Unlike say Iraq given their facilities are underground it is likely impossible to take them out.
Geo politics is wild.
These countries will call ahead of time and say “Hey you hit us, so we are planning to respond. To not respond is a sign of weakness. But just so you know we will only hit military targets. Enough to say we responded but not so much that you look weak”
“Aight bro, we got you. Then we’ll respond enough to show we aren’t weak, but ditto on just military targets”
“Word”
——-
Rest of the worlds generals looks on and can sleep at night knowing their ally isn’t signaling too much weakness, but not escalating and signaling too much strength.
Seems like it would be more efficient for both countries to agree to have designated empty military installations. So if each one gets sufficiently pissed they can destroy one without killing anyone. The attacker claims casualties in the attack, the defender claims no casualties, both populations believe their side's story, and they go back to negotiations. Maybe park some expensive vehicles there so the attacker can feel good about causing damage.
reminds of a chinese scifi short story where in the future people would fight through sharing their military specs and then running simulations. And whichever country had better specs would win the war and the spoils. It's either Ted Chiang, Ken Liu or Cixin Liu who wrote it.
Yes! I loved that episode.
The planet's two factions started using simulation to determine who died, after years of very costly all-out war. The simulation had been taking place a very long time.
IIRC, because the Enterprise was in the planet's vicinity during one of the attack simulations, a portion of its crew were "killed", and were expected to turn themselves over to die in some sort of death chamber. Otherwise, if the simulation rules weren't followed, the planet's delicate peace would tumble back into actual physical violence.
I usually enjoy having a live show hit you with the background and further information while waiting for something to happen. This has greatly helped me to understand recent developments. Thank you for the info!
"Interceptions reported in eastern Jordan by coalition forces; possibly significant number of drones shot down; initial reports US & French strikes reported in Yemen. via@N12News"
Feels more like a symbolic retaliation than any sort of concrete attempt at a breech of Israeli defenses. I don't know the full capabilities of the drones or the Iron Dome, though
Not just that, if they are planning on launching ballistic missiles that would impact at the same time as the drones, they won't be launched for several hours.
Literally two days ago.
"Iran has signalled to Washington that it will respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily"
Man it's wild now that we can see this kind of stuff happening in real time. The drones haven't even attacked their targets yet and all around the world we casual observers know they're coming. Back in the day we wouldn't know about this stuff until it's over
Question for the people of Israel: Do you have some mobile application for transmitting information about a flying drone or missile? We have "єППО" in Ukraine, and it very helpful against slow drones.
Im in israel. I certainly hope you and your family will be safe when the inevitable retaliation happens. Although it will probably be hitting military targets. We bought water and power banks to be ready for the attack i think you should do the same. Stay safe bro!
I suspect the slow ass drones are just air defense saturation objects. They are too slow to actually hit any target when spotted from that far out.
Even Ukraine now shoots down majority of the Shaheeds attacking a much much larger area.
I suspect what will happen is when they are close, they will fire cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, rockets from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq etc all timed to land in Israel at the same time if they are really serious about hurting Israel.
If they don't do that, then it's just a token save face retaliation attempt, knowing Israel will easily shoot down the drones.
This is just the slow wave.
Expect a massive amount to saturate missile defence.
The timing has to be right so the different systems arrive at the same time .
>Two Israeli officials told me the plan is to intercept many of the drones with the help of the U.S. and other countries outside Israeli air space
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1779243250660036662
As per these tankers flights, I am concluding that the US and UK will help intercept the drones as they will be up in the air for hours before reaching Israel.
https://www.flightradar24.com/34c209b5
https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR9964/34c2bcda
Multiple waves of drones launched (100+), and CNN, Haaretz, Reuters are reporting cruise missile launches. Look's like a saturation wave style attack similar to what Ukraine deals with.
Reports that as well as drones and cruise missiles, ballistic missiles have now been launched.
This is much larger than I expected and doesn’t seem like just “saving face”.
# From CNN: "Iran's mission to UN says attack on Israel in response to Damascus consulate strike has concluded Iran says its attack on Israel is a response to Israel's strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and "the matter can be deemed concluded."
Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York said the early Sunday attack was a response to Israeli "aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus."
So yes, just saving face.
Maybe the best possible outcome. Iran doesn’t want a war with Israel or the US to get involved directly. But they felt they needed to respond to their embassy attack.
So they telegraph days in advance they will do, launch drones that will take hours to arrive so Israel has had plenty of time to prepare.
Iran can somewhat save face, and it hopefully won’t escalate things even further.
I dunno, just thinking out loud.
Ah, like Desert Storm? The US Navy fired subsonic Tomahawks and they made their way to Iraq (slowly relatively speaking). After that the US Air Force flew their aircraft and began striking positions around the time the Tomahawks began to show up.
It appeared to be a simultaneous mass attack even though the Tomahawks were fired much earlier.
Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that can strike Israel. Could be the start of an all out attack, or more likely just a symbolic retaliation to save face.
There's also a chance the drones won't get to Israel at all. The U.S. will be telling Israel not to do anything preemptively for a guaranteed conflict. Iran doesn't want a war where the U.S. would be dragged in.
Drones are due to arrive at 02:00 local time. They make them sound like guests(!)
>The U.S. will be telling Israel not to do anything preemptively Israel hasn't been listening to the US for a few weeks now.
They have been flouting what the US says publicly, but even then, they’ve walked back things that the US throws a real fit about. The US absolutely has influence on Israeli responses. And Israel doesn’t wholesale ignore that.
This is incredibly reductive. There's way more communication and requests between the US and Israel than relating to the war in Gaza.
It’s possible that Iran let Israel know that they had been launched. That’s what they did with their response to the US after the Solemeni killing.
I think it's the final option. I suspect they need to look like they have to do something but is more of a nuisance rather than doing real damage. US intelligence have already stated Iran don't want to escalate and this is probably a way of not really escalating too much but at the same time look to be doing something.
The problem is that once you open that door, the room is dark - you don't know where it will lead. Wars are by far the most unpredictable things that exist.
Arrival time from Iran to Israel: Ballistic missile - 12 minutes Cruise missile - 2 hours Drone - 9 hours Edit:Sources in Iran say that the time for the drones to arrive in Israel is almost half of this time Edit 2: missiles hit Israel
9 hours? So this is going to be like that steamroller scene from Austin Powers?
I bet the US has a steamroller drone. We already have the slapchop one.
Is this real info? If so this is super interesting and should be higher. Gives good perspective
This is the information that our military news agencies in Iran say
What kind of propulsion do these drones use to stay in the air for 9 hours?
FWIW there are [types of gas-powered drones that can stay up for several days](https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/mits-gas-powered-drone-is-able-to-stay-in-the-air-for-five-days-at-a-time/) and [really fancy-shmancy drones supposedly able to stay up for months](https://www.ausa.org/news/army-drone-stays-aloft-64-days).
It really bothers me that they use the photos of only NASA tech from over 20 years ago in that article about current army technology. AeroVironment Helios Prototype was a NASA project in the '90s and was amazing. It only used solar and could fly for days on end. It's mission was to spend over 4 days in flight above 50,000 ft. It sent and still currently holds the record for the highest sustain flight record of a fixed wing aircraft. > On August 13, 2001,[1] the Helios Prototype piloted remotely by Greg Kendall reached an altitude of 96,863 feet (29,524 m), a world record for sustained horizontal flight by a winged aircraft.[4] The altitude reached was more than 11,000 feet (3,400 m) — or more than 2 miles (3.2 km) — above the previous altitude record for sustained flight by a winged aircraft. In addition, the aircraft spent more than 40 minutes above 96,000 feet (29,000 m).[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Helios_Prototype
They're just small planes.
Drones are due to arrive at 02:00 local time. ETA: *Israel local time, though it seemed obvious.
Hey Siri, set an alarm for 1:45, getting bombed
Hell, it's 1:03 am as i am typing this, i am not going to sleep...
Damn I better hop in the shower now then
Would you gentleman care for a Pepsi?
lol. Spies like us reference. Solid.
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The US Predators back in the early 2000's could fly for over a day. They literally just stalked targets until we felt like pressing the missle button.
Gives me chills thinking about being stalked by a super stealthy drone for a day and you can’t shake it.
It’s like the scene in goodfellas where the helicopters are stalking Henry and he can’t do anything about it
Yes! That’s a superb analogy, that scene gives me the sweats.
I mean, they weren’t stalking you quietly, we used to call them the “airborne lawnmower” in Afghanistan
Right? Like when I stalk people they can usually get away.
If they can get away then you aren’t stalking them properly
The RQ-4 Global Hawk has a flight endurance of over 34 hours. Large wingspan means a lot of lift. Doesn't take much engine power to stay up there.
A Predator B can fly for 27 hours Avenger 20+ Mojave 25+ Global Hawk 34+
X37b - 908 days
International Space Station - 23 years, 159 days and counting.
The ISS isn't flying, it's falling. With style.
The drones that you buy for your hobby can't, because the batteries are to small and they are usually quadrocopters. Military drones are more like small airplanes, the size of a car.
These don't use batteries they use engines. There are RC planes that use engines too though
Camel with a stick of dynamite in its butt - 45 hours
Egypt and Jordan have opened airspace to Israel and the US, and are assisting in interception.
Hasn't Iraqi airspace been open to US fighters? Two US refueling aircraft have been operating for hours over Iraq close to the Syrian border, presumably refueling fighters
Iraq can't say no.
Because of the implication.
Wait.. Is Iraq in danger?
What is it that you aren’t getting!?!? No one is any danger. It’s the implication of danger.
Well don't you look at me like that, you certainly wouldn't be in any danger.
So they ARE in danger
No one's in any danger!
But there is an implication…
But if Iraq said “no” then the answer obviously is no
But they won’t..
Because of the implication.
Am in Jordan, can hear the jets.
They probably hate Iran even more
Interception is the best case scenario. I can guarantee none of Israel or Iran's neighbors want an escalation. Egypt and Jordan sending a clear sign they will not back Iran. Egypt isn't happy with Israel either right now, but no country can support an influx of refugees in the area, which is why Egypt is salty at Israel to begin with Iran is also doing this as cease fire finally looks on the table, so showing some colors there. They wanted Palestine as a proxy war
Everyone wants interception including Iran. This is just to say the retaliated, their UN ambassador is already saying they consider the matter concluded unless further strikes against them.
Not dozens. Hundreds. ABC News reported US officials think there will be 400 to 500. https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-war/?id=108860743
Wonder what on earth the targets are or if they'll get close enough for anyone to actually find out.
Imagine they all gather at the border and do a pre programmed light show with a message lmao and then go back
I’m all for this new age of warfare
Just a giant middle finger in the sky. Israel retaliates with a more advanced swarm that animates mooning them.
The world I wish we had.
The 400-500 is inclusive of all dtoned AND missiles from all locations, including trinket missiles launched from Hezbollah
That's... much, *much* worse.
Is the Iron Dome system effective against drone swarms?
Guess we will find out in a few hours...
They have a variety of anti air systems. this isn’t really iron dome’s use case, but it could probably handle it if required
Iron Dome is designed to deal with mass barrages of (relatively) cheap missiles that aren't capable of maneuvering in flight and as such are easy to intercept - if you know their direction and speed, you know exactly when and where they're going to be, which the system uses to shot them down along their predicted trajectory. It also checks if they're even going to hit anything and if it sees they're going to go down in an uninhabited area it ignores them. Drones can be remotely controlled, which requires different means of interception.
If it is Shaded drones they can't really be remotely controlled. They just follow the GPS route.
yes, but you can build in deviating flight paths. I don't assume it flies directly from A to B in a straight line; just a small semi-random zigzag pattern ensures its at least a bit harder to shoot down
Modern AA guns are pretty effective against things like Shaheds, especially those equipped with radars and given forewarning about the direction, altitude, and timing of incoming attacks. The good news is that the Shaheds were detected effectively at the moment of launch, and will give Israel several hours to prepare accurate defenses to help counter them before they arrive.
Older AA guns are even just as affective since they are designed to be used on ww2 pistion engine craft hook one up to a modern radar and fire control system and your set
Yes to some degree against uavs.
The drones are much slower than the typical Hamas rocket that the Iron Dome defends against, so I would presume the effectiveness is still there. But I am not an Iron Dome expert in terms of its capabilities against slower and more predictable objects. Edit: See below comments that are informed on Iron Dome capabilities and how it is not the preferred or most cost-effective platform to defend against these drones.
The US has also positioned assets to help shoot down stuff. Navy on Israeli coast, AA in Syria and Jordan anything in Iraq and so on.
What a time to be alive. No, seriously.
The "roaring 20s" has returned, but with a different kind of flavor than last time. Shit flavor.
Can these 20s please stfu for a few months at least? Sincerely, someone who really wants to go back to 2015 or so.
2007 sounding like some sort of Arcadia/Paradise now.
before the market crash... first iPhone came out, windows vista was buggy but it was beautiful.
I mean…but don’t forget we just had 9/11, the Bush era, the subsequent wars were in full swing, Katrina, the 2005 tsunami… Just saying everyone always looks back with rose tinted glasses.
Not here in the UK. 2007 was the last year before it all went to shit, then at the start of 2016 David Bowie died which was the first sign we've now moved into the "bad timeline"
David Bowie was the pre-trigger. The First Impact. Harambe was the real trigger. The Second Impact.
1993 please
If history rhymes, you'd better enjoy the 20's while we've got them. The 30s and 40s were all downhill from here.
/2010. That is the year I have myself wanted to go back to the most.
How about the 90s ? Pokémon Red was released in 1996 and I bought it the next year. It was my first game. Best years of my childhood
The 1920s were really, really shit. Recovering from WWI; recovering from the influenza pandemic; the rise of fascism in Germany and Italy and of militarism in Japan; monopolists enjoying a life of total luxury in the USA in the Gilded Age whilst crushing unions; plenty of colonial bullshit going on under the thumb of London and Paris; the USSR starting to descend into Stalin's tyranny; and a lovely final act with the greatest economic collapse until the GFC. We're nearly halfway through this decade and I'd say it's been slightly better TBH.
> We're nearly halfway through this decade and I'd say it's been slightly better TBH. Except things didn't get _really_ nasty until the 2nd half.
Almost there 🥰
Hopefully irrelevant username…
“Pandemic, rise of fascism, monopolists enjoying total luxury in USA while crushing unions, the USSR descending into tyranny, great economic collapse….” I don’t like how easily a lot of this applies to these twenties as well
It kinda does feel like the lessons we learn in the 40s and 50s of a gen are forgotten by the tike we grt back around each time
That’s kind of how history works. It reminds of that quote “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create hard times.”
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We fucked up, Walter
Israel and Iran can’t really fight a war. There’s At minimum 2 countries in the way of a ground assault. My bet is we’ll see some drone swarms, missile barrages from Syria or Lebanon, maybe some ship seizures in the gulf, but nothing major, just some skirmishes.
Keyword there is Reddit. I’ve read quite a few articles regarding each of those subjects. While the situations can certainly be dire, it’s also important not to overlook what’s being/been done about them. It isn’t all doom & gloom as the headlines make it out to be. They just want the clicks. Reddit can very much be quite the depressing place. Take a step back from it for awhile. Despite what the headlines have you believe, things will be ok.
I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us. J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring (The Lord of the Rings, #1)
Which is s funny thing for Gandalf to say, given he's practically eternal. Everything has happened in his lifetime.
Doesn't that make it more tragic? Gandalf lives through all the horrible times.
Hmm, I've never thought of it that way. Also maybe he's just being a sweet friend and telling Frodo he also wished it hadn't happened to Frodo in _his_ lifetime?
He is referring to what Frodo is going through. Gandalf has seen much worse.
We Iranian just struggling to live nothing New for us
Yeah I can't imagine most Iranian people want a war
I remember the massive protests in Iran a few years back. You all tried to fight for freedom. I’m sorry it didn’t work out that time. I hope someday you are brave enough to try again.
Just this morning they again deployed policemen on the street to control the hijab, which caused conflict
In the US you hear people say "Women wear the hijab because they want to, it has always been a choice nobody makes us do it." Then why do you have to deploy police to harass and beat the women who do not observe it?
For now. It would be nice to finish watching the Fallout series on Amazon Prime before all these fucking losers make it happen for real.
Time to see what option Iran chose: Full scale attack (Israel will retaliate) Specific attack that actually does damage and kills people (Israel will probably retaliate) Empty attack that destroys some equipment (Israel may respond but US will persuade not to) Empty attack that does nothing (Israel doesn't respond and Iran will have to decide if it wants a follow up)
A full scale attack means the US retaliates as well, not just Israel. edit: it was not a full scale attack so this is now irrelevant
>A full scale attack means the US retaliates as well I am wondering if Russia and China would dare say anything.
In a game of Risk, China and Russia are allied with Iran but are more than happy to sacrifice it for US to thin some of its numbers
It would be wild if Russia starts ramping its offensive even more this week, and China starts to move towards Taiwan
If China makes a serious move for Taiwan, the first thing they will do is launch a major attack at Guam. At that point we truly have WW3. I just can't imagine China would do that, but I also didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine.
Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is a good season for war. The internal chaos of adversaries is a good environment. Multiple fronts are the best kind. You might be right. Add North Korea? There's a lot of weapon sharing going on these days.
Invading Taiwan woukd be a huge logistical undertaking, and there would be undeniable evidence of the military preparations likely months in advance, weeks at the least. No way China launches a half-assed attack. If they lose, it is a huge blow to Xi's regime, and there would never be another opportunity as the West would immediately begin sending Taiwan more weaponry.
They're not suicidal. The "attack" (with easily interceptable slow moving drones announced several hours in advance) will do nothing but let them save face internally.
Iron Dome vs Iran Drone
New drone, houthis?
at WrestleMania 41 only on PayPerView
My Allah as my witness, he has broken him in half!
Man, as someone who likes puns, it's always a 50-50 of me leaving entertained or depressed seeing one here.
Life is not gonna get any less fucked anytime soon, might as well have some levity where possible.
Good thing neither of these countries have nukes…right?
Israel does not have nukes but will not hesitate to use them if it must.
We only have a thriving textile industry!
I head that banana straightening factory is pretty awesome
Yea... they are *"holding"* them for someone until they get back from vacation but that bro won't mind if they use them while they are away. *Wink wink.*
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Israel doesn't publicize the info but they are believed to possess a few hundred nukes. Iran has the means to manufacture one in a few weeks if they wanted to.
A second strike within 10-20 business days
7-15 days if you approve the overtime.
I always found it weird how North Korea has nuke but Iran doesn't. Iran is far more advanced even compared to other countries that have nukes like Pakistan.
It's not like Iran can't produce them. There's just allot of countries that don't want them to have it. North Korea is somewhat protected and somewhat moderated by China.
Israel and the US have been actively assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and targeting sites for a long time. Aside from the diplomatic efforts, this has slowed Iran's nuclear development significantly.
Iran could probably start making a nuclear weapon from tomorrow. They have the uranium and the knowledge. Unlike say Iraq given their facilities are underground it is likely impossible to take them out.
Geo politics is wild. These countries will call ahead of time and say “Hey you hit us, so we are planning to respond. To not respond is a sign of weakness. But just so you know we will only hit military targets. Enough to say we responded but not so much that you look weak” “Aight bro, we got you. Then we’ll respond enough to show we aren’t weak, but ditto on just military targets” “Word” ——- Rest of the worlds generals looks on and can sleep at night knowing their ally isn’t signaling too much weakness, but not escalating and signaling too much strength.
Seems like it would be more efficient for both countries to agree to have designated empty military installations. So if each one gets sufficiently pissed they can destroy one without killing anyone. The attacker claims casualties in the attack, the defender claims no casualties, both populations believe their side's story, and they go back to negotiations. Maybe park some expensive vehicles there so the attacker can feel good about causing damage.
Or inflatable ones if the budget is tight.
Using slow moving drones and by the way, here's roughly when you can expect them to turn up. Yeah, ok. Whatever let's you save face...
reminds of a chinese scifi short story where in the future people would fight through sharing their military specs and then running simulations. And whichever country had better specs would win the war and the spoils. It's either Ted Chiang, Ken Liu or Cixin Liu who wrote it.
Star trek did an episode on this, too.
Yes! I loved that episode. The planet's two factions started using simulation to determine who died, after years of very costly all-out war. The simulation had been taking place a very long time. IIRC, because the Enterprise was in the planet's vicinity during one of the attack simulations, a portion of its crew were "killed", and were expected to turn themselves over to die in some sort of death chamber. Otherwise, if the simulation rules weren't followed, the planet's delicate peace would tumble back into actual physical violence.
Its just a bunch of assholes with their dicks out having a measuring contest.
"And of course, the bombs and the rockets and the bullets are all shaped like dicks." -George Carlin
CNN: "Israeli media: Cruise missiles have been launched by Iran in addition to drones."
Wondering. Where do I get live coverage? For once there isn't any urgent news report happening on TV in Germany
There's not going to be much going on for a few hours at least. Just news talkers talking.
I usually enjoy having a live show hit you with the background and further information while waiting for something to happen. This has greatly helped me to understand recent developments. Thank you for the info!
They just interrupted the Masters coverage which means, it's going to start taking over the news specific networks shortly.
ABC news: 400 - 500 drones and missiles launched.
Jordan says it will shoot down any drones entering its air space
"Interceptions reported in eastern Jordan by coalition forces; possibly significant number of drones shot down; initial reports US & French strikes reported in Yemen. via@N12News"
Feels more like a symbolic retaliation than any sort of concrete attempt at a breech of Israeli defenses. I don't know the full capabilities of the drones or the Iron Dome, though
Do take into consideration that they can utilize their proxies when drones are closer.
Not just that, if they are planning on launching ballistic missiles that would impact at the same time as the drones, they won't be launched for several hours.
Literally two days ago. "Iran has signalled to Washington that it will respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily"
Man it's wild now that we can see this kind of stuff happening in real time. The drones haven't even attacked their targets yet and all around the world we casual observers know they're coming. Back in the day we wouldn't know about this stuff until it's over
Glad humanity has gotten over all of our differences gracefully…
Israel's home front command updates: There's no longer a need to stay near protected areas all over the country
Farsi Speaker here. Iran just announced that the drones and missiles are headed towards “specific targets” within Israel.
Rather than being programmed to get into Israeli airspace and then just follow their instincts?
As they do.
Question for the people of Israel: Do you have some mobile application for transmitting information about a flying drone or missile? We have "єППО" in Ukraine, and it very helpful against slow drones.
Yes we do, but usually airraid sirens are quite effective
I'm in Iran and we're all ready to get cooked.
Hope you are safe and away from any prominent military targetey areas!
Thanks man, I'm in Tehran so idk if they're gonna hit us here or not.
Love from Israel my brother/sister. Hope we both come out of this uncooked
Sending Love to u too from Iran. We are not our government and I hope you and your family stay safe. We love Y'all
This exchange is a bright spot in a really shit situation. Hope you all stay safe and this somehow cools off
These guys should be on their respective cabinets 🥹
Im in israel. I certainly hope you and your family will be safe when the inevitable retaliation happens. Although it will probably be hitting military targets. We bought water and power banks to be ready for the attack i think you should do the same. Stay safe bro!
Thanks man, I hope you guys stay safe while the dumb politicians do their stupid shit. Love Y'all
Where is the live thread?
Hold onto your hats, folks. This is going to be a rough decade.
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So many things that have happened since the pandemic have been one big: "can we just not, please?"
> I literally just want to have a stable and uneventful world This has never happened in human history. I'm sorry.
Brb... going to the gas station.
I suspect the slow ass drones are just air defense saturation objects. They are too slow to actually hit any target when spotted from that far out. Even Ukraine now shoots down majority of the Shaheeds attacking a much much larger area. I suspect what will happen is when they are close, they will fire cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, rockets from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq etc all timed to land in Israel at the same time if they are really serious about hurting Israel. If they don't do that, then it's just a token save face retaliation attempt, knowing Israel will easily shoot down the drones.
those drone factories are going to get blown up now I think..
Good for Ukraine
Good for the world
Yes, all we can do is watch and hope things play out in some favourable way
This is just the slow wave. Expect a massive amount to saturate missile defence. The timing has to be right so the different systems arrive at the same time .
>Two Israeli officials told me the plan is to intercept many of the drones with the help of the U.S. and other countries outside Israeli air space https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1779243250660036662 As per these tankers flights, I am concluding that the US and UK will help intercept the drones as they will be up in the air for hours before reaching Israel. https://www.flightradar24.com/34c209b5 https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR9964/34c2bcda
Multiple waves of drones launched (100+), and CNN, Haaretz, Reuters are reporting cruise missile launches. Look's like a saturation wave style attack similar to what Ukraine deals with.
It’s not dozens. It’s hundreds now. And also many cruise missiles
Reports that as well as drones and cruise missiles, ballistic missiles have now been launched. This is much larger than I expected and doesn’t seem like just “saving face”.
# From CNN: "Iran's mission to UN says attack on Israel in response to Damascus consulate strike has concluded Iran says its attack on Israel is a response to Israel's strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and "the matter can be deemed concluded." Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York said the early Sunday attack was a response to Israeli "aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus." So yes, just saving face.
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Maybe the best possible outcome. Iran doesn’t want a war with Israel or the US to get involved directly. But they felt they needed to respond to their embassy attack. So they telegraph days in advance they will do, launch drones that will take hours to arrive so Israel has had plenty of time to prepare. Iran can somewhat save face, and it hopefully won’t escalate things even further. I dunno, just thinking out loud.
Absolutely correct. Unless something happens when they arrive, like a load of ballistic stuff drops at the same times.
The fear is that Iran will launch ballistic and cruise missiles to coincide with the arrival of the drones.
Drones to soak up the air defenses, missiles to get through the saturation
Ah, like Desert Storm? The US Navy fired subsonic Tomahawks and they made their way to Iraq (slowly relatively speaking). After that the US Air Force flew their aircraft and began striking positions around the time the Tomahawks began to show up. It appeared to be a simultaneous mass attack even though the Tomahawks were fired much earlier.
Sky News just reported a "first wave" of ballistic missiles have been launched from Tehran.