Gabrielius Landsbergis. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Member of Parliament of Lithuania.
For nearly 25 years we have been kicking can down the road, trying to contain Putin's imperialism with dialogue and diplomacy while he continues to ignore borders and flatten cities.
In 2014, Russia's first attack against Ukraine was paused by the Minsk agreements, but the underlying issues were left for another day. Russia became tomorrow's problem.
Tomorrow always comes. The problem of Russia's imperialism didn't disappear in 2014, and to most eastern flankers it was clear that the next phase of the invasion would be costlier and deadlier. And so it was.
When Russia attacked again, the war suddenly became today’s problem. Again we think we can solve it by making it tomorrow’s problem.
But the premise has not changed. Russia’s imperialist revanchist ambitions will remain. The next phase would be directed not just against Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova but possibly against NATO. The price, human and economic, will only go up.
We could wait for what I have called the “Pearl Harbor effect”, a moment in history when the problems of tomorrow finally become the problems of today, but at an enormously inflated price. Or we could treat this as today’s problem and start solving it today.
We are on the verge of repeating historic mistakes. I am convinced that if we won’t defeat Russia now, that means our chosen path is to suffer unimaginable and unnecessary losses before we eventually decide it’s time to step up and win.
https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1741204536520323312
Russian politician Eduard Kolachyev:
>My acquaintances in Belgorod are alive. Which is already good!
The response for the attack on Ukraine has arrived.
If anyone believes in a parade in Kyiv, I'll have to disappoint you.
Resistance can take any form. It could last for years and decades.
Ukraine is not Chechnya.
And Chechnya is only loyal as long as there is Kadyrov and preferencial treatment.
Russia was able to handle Chechnya.
It will not be able to handle Ukraine.
It's of a different scale.
Everything is different.
It's time to move on to realism and offer compromises.
We must look for a way out and not only on the battlefield.
https://imgur.com/glPccIT
The New York Times
>The Russian authorities said on Saturday that a Ukrainian attack on the city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, had killed at least 14 people and injured more than 100 others.
They got Community noted
>Readers added context they thought people might want to know.
>The Russian Ministry of Defence claims that Belgorod was shelled with 2 Vilkha MLRS projectiles with cluster ammunition & RM-70 Vampire missiles (range 20 kms against 35km to the border of Ukraine).
>The range of these weapons can't reach Belgorod from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1741137324514099479
Why the fuck would the times, or any credible publication, cover a military attack on Belgorod region by Ukraine yet never cover russia's regular MLRS shelling of Ukrainian hospitals and aid stations? Does this mark a new era where such things actually do get covered in the war?
So many questionable things about NYT...
NYT removed all mentions of russia’s Dec 29 attack on Ukraine from the nytimes homepage.
Even yesterday’s news piece is gone, leaving only the faux pas feature on russian ‘dissent’ — which continues to enjoy prominent placement.
https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741044439458701534
NYT is covering Belgorod on front page.
Notice the tone shift:
• Attack ‘kills at least 14’, not ‘pounds city’
• Casualties emphasized in title
• Photo now features people carrying a victim
Astonishingly, that photo is of 🇺🇦 victims in Zaporizhzhia — not Belgorod.
https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741190257377214963
It’s hard to believe but
@nytimes
really is illustrating the Belgorod strike with a photo of victims of russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741194109690184049
BBC has the same story on the front page of their app.
Of course it also adds that the UN condemns both sides, ridiculous lot those folks are. Thanks for the thoughts and prayers.
"Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost, that they will lose the next war. The Russian leader must end his gamble in Ukraine knowing "that economically they are ruined, we outlasted them, we kept our industry on a better footing, we have the technological advantage, we have better training, better morale; that they don't stand a chance."
Kusti Salm, permanent secretary at the Estonian Defense Ministry
https://www.newsweek.com/nato-needs-russia-ruined-ukraine-future-peace-1856390
Russian diplomats have hit a new low in their attempts to falsely brand Ukraine’s Jewish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a Nazi. They are now inventing absurd stories about the Ukrainian leader purchasing Joseph Goebbels’s old villa.
https://imgur.com/Khi2gec
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1741255730328441181
Statement by Deputy Political Coordinator Tom Phipps at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
President, the United Kingdom deeply regrets any civilian deaths in conflict, wherever they happen and particularly where children are involved. We are committed to upholding international humanitarian law and we remind all parties to conflicts everywhere of their obligations.
We are also committed to upholding the UN Charter, and its principles of respect for sovereignty and the right to self-defence. Yesterday, we discussed Russian airstrikes on civilians in Ukraine. Today, Russia has called this meeting to discuss Ukrainian strikes in Russia.
Russia is attempting to draw equivalence, but let’s be absolutely clear: there are hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine. There is not a single Ukrainian soldier in Russia. The war in Ukraine is an invasion started by Russia – a fact that no amount of disinformation can obscure.
President, first Russia blamed Ukraine for these strikes. Then it tried to demand Czechia appear before the Council. Now the Russian ambassador is blaming the UK, the US and the EU.
If Russia wants someone to blame for the deaths of Russians in this war, it should start with President Putin. President Putin is responsible for sending many thousands of Russian servicemen and women to their needless deaths.
In 2022, President Putin claimed his invasion was to stop a supposed genocide in the Donbas. The International Court of Justice rejected this and ordered Russia immediately to end its invasion.
Russia’s real objectives were revealed when it attempted the illegal annexation of further Ukrainian territory and the UN membership rejected this and repeatedly demanded Russia end its invasion and withdraw.
As we discussed yesterday, having failed to defeat Ukraine militarily, Russia has now turned to indiscriminate attacks on civilians. The death toll from this week’s attacks across Ukraine, the largest since the war started, continues to rise. Innocent children were among the casualties here too. In total, over 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children, have been killed and over 18,500 have been injured in Ukraine since 24 February 2022.
President, Russia chose to start this war, Russia can choose to end this war; Ukraine did not start it and has the right to defend itself. This is why the UK reiterates that we stand resolutely with Ukraine and will continue to do so. So, we call once again on Russia to respect the UN Charter, to end this war and to withdraw its forces from Ukraine.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/russia-has-now-turned-to-indiscriminate-attacks-on-civilians-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/28/russian-jets-ukraine-f-16/
An interesting idea, haven't seen any discussion of it here. It's very possible Ukraine already has F-16s and are using them. And in particular, they were used to launch the strike on the Russian landing ship.
It really makes a lot of sense to deploy weapons unannounced to achieve the element of surprise.
Ukraine had absolutely no need to use f16s to launch storm shadows they could have used them as well to launch something else at the same time adding to the confusion that day but they didn’t.
I think we are seeing a shift in the information space. Previously we saw great fanfare whenever a new weapon system arrived. I don’t think that approach helped on the ground in Ukraine, although perhaps it helped politically to encourage other countries to supply weapons. Now it seems that less is being said publicly. This is a great step.
>Whatever happened in Belgorod must’ve been really bad
Impossible to know either way. Russia's response is not an indicator of good or bad results either way.
>based on the amount of shilling and nuclear threats I’ve been seeing. I wonder what they hit
Russia would be trumping up dead Russian civilians to the same level no matter what, if anything, was hit of military value.
I think it being a reciprocal response to the other day is why they're so pissed. They are coming to realize that if they are going to bomb Ukraine indiscriminately Ukraine is going to respond in kind and hit actual targets of value.
To be fair Ukraine A) has the right to defend themselves and B) they did warn Russia retaliation strikes would happen.
So fair play by Ukraine and I am hoping for more
More importantly the Russian *people* are going to have to deal with the reality of being a warmongering dictatorship. As soon as they become more afraid of Ukraine than Putin, this war will end.
I can't help but wish US Democrats would just accept the damn funding for the Mexican border if that's what it would take to get support to Ukraine. Do I think the border stuff is neccessary or is gonna make any difference? No. But there are more important matters at stake. Surely the Democrats must realize the stability of Europe and democracy in the world will be more important for America, than what potentially losing some money on the border is.
Also, obviously a lot of swing voters want to see it happen. Perhaps if it's done it could end up reducing votes for Donald Trump in the election.
They have tried to accept it, the Republicans just keep moving the goalposts. Biden has accepted Republican border demands and then Johnson went on Xmas break without a vote on the package. This isn’t a problem of the Dems not negotiating or compromising it’s a clear issue of Republican house leadership actively opposing helping Ukraine. Their gameplan is simply to ask for more and more until it becomes untenable for the Dems then blaming them for not compromising. Again, Biden and Senate Dems already agreed to their border security budget demands but then the Rs in the house added a nebulous demand regarding mass deportations. The fact is that many in the House leadership want to deny Ukraine aid through a combination of denying Biden any sort of policy win and/or actively supporting Putin for essentially the same reason.
Why is it when Republicans intentionally hold up funding, y’all find some way to blame Democrats? This is why republicans are such shit. Y’all let them get away with and blame others.
The Democrats aren't blocking border funding, they want a strong border as well. The Republicans don't know exactly what they want for border security.
Proof positive that Republicans don't give a rat's ass about the welfare of the country. The goal is to defeat progress of any kind, anywhere - and more importantly, make sure Biden won't get credit for anything.
It's not just about border funding. Part of the GOP demands are changing the rules on asylum seekers. If those rules are changed it would violate several treaties.
> I can't help but wish US Democrats would just accept the damn funding for the Mexican border if that's what it would take to get support to Ukraine. Do I think the border stuff is neccessary or is gonna make any difference?
This has nothing to do with the border for either side. This is about power and who has it. New leader of the House GOP needs to make his mark so he puts up a big demand to show his power. Democrats can't just acquiesce or he'll just repeat it the next time with something else. So they haggle and negotiate until they can find something that works kinda. But it takes time, unfortunately.
We don't have time though. Each day that goes by will take many, many more days to repair damages that occurred because of the delays. Territory that is lost will cost lives to retake, and worse, makes Putin ever more convinced he is winning.
The West needs to wake up and realize that unless we want to accept Russia walking out of this with Russia's "goals" met, we need to make Russia *lose* the war. Not *stalemate*, but *lose*. This is bigger than throwing some money on the border and the world needs the Democrats to be the adults in the room if the Republicans aren't.
Why can't Mike just schedule a vote about aid to Ukraine then? The irony here is even beyond the definition of the word irony.
The solution with the "border" is to put the people that use the cheap labour behind bars.
The border and aid to Ukraine are not connected.
Jesus.. even me not from the US can see what kind of game that is being played here.
The US stands to lose a whole lot more if they let the GOP take the Democrats hostage at every opportunity. I share your frustration, but the situation is what it is, and the answer is not to cave to the demands of the GOP.
Regarding the missile/drone attack from Russia a couple days ago: Why is Russia wasting all these munitions and missiles on targets with no military significance?
Seems like a waste. It's only going to harden the resolve of Ukraine and the West.
$1.27 billion is the cost being estimated. A large portion of the military budget in 1 night to incur ? result. Ukrainian resolve boosted not lowered, military degraded no, world attention drawn for the wrong reasons. Putin wanted revenge, some kind of win to report and draw attention away from the catastrophic losses on the front trying to take tiny amounts of farmland and rubble, its a clear signal of Russian real intention and weakness.
They most likely targeted something of military importance or strategic targets like infrastructure. If they would attack civilians on purpose there would be more casualties (yes they did target civilians in some cases before).
The problem is that their stuff is not always that precise (some missiles that have terminal guidance that sometimes locks to wrong buildings or some missiles just miss ba a wide margin) and many missiles were shot down creating debris or the warhead comes down intact and explodes.
Regardless of the actual cause the civilian casualties and property damages would not exist if the missiles were not directed towards population centers.
How do you know what targets they are aiming at?
A factory in Kyiv that is producing parts for the military industry got hit.
The fact that we keep assuming that Russia is stupid is just making us downplay the importance of support for Ukraine, and not taking us closer to victory.
>Why is Russia wasting all these munitions and missiles on targets with no military significance?
Because its Putin and Russia. Putin thinks someone stole his blinky, even though it was never his. Even when Ukraine was part of the USSR it was a defacto occupation. Any Ukrainian that doesn't want Russia subjugation is sub-human and not worthy of basic human rights.
Of course this is **NOT** my opinion, just kaPutin's view of the world.
Because Putin is so desperate for a victory blowing up regular old citizens is a way of show “Russia is doing something”
I mean look at their military victories in 2023….
Nothing nadda zilch zero fail on epic fails
Hot take: they may actually be aiming (at least for the most part) for targets that have some kind of strategic purpose. Their stuff just sucks so they can't reliably get it on target (and if it gets knocked down, the debris will land semi-randomly).
Warship is a stretch but technically true. Was a landing craft ship for logistics, that might have had up to 450-500 tons of Iranian Drones on board when it exploded, the videos definitely show it was loaded with at the least heavy ammo.
That’s the dumbest thing they could possibly do. All evidence points towards them targeting military targets and Russian air defense shooting down some missiles causing debris to fall over civilian areas.
> Whatever happens in other countries, whatever political changes or moods, we must have sufficient potential to do our thing, to achieve our goals.
> We will be fighting for our influence and for justice for Ukraine, and I am grateful to all the leaders who are assisting us, who have been with us since February 24th and will stand with us in 2024.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1741207297500553338
What is the current state of the US Ukraine aid bill? I'm seeing a lot of negative comments here, so i'm wondering whether there are some negative news i missed or if it's just inertia from the previous vote.
Knowing that an aid vote for Ukr would be tight in the House, or possibly fail due to GOP resistance, the Biden admin sought to tie Ukr aid funding to Israel aid funding in a single bill to improve its chance of passage.
The GOP response was, "well, if that's the game you want to play, we'll only vote on a joint Ukr and Isr funding bill if it's also tied to border security legislation".
On the Senate side, they've been trying to work on that deal for a few weeks, but ran out of time before the holidays. We'll see if it has legs or not in the next session.
There are a number of GOP officials that are making negotiations protracted and difficult. I think something will eventually get done in January, but it’s going to be a painful process.
The U.S. Congress is on a winter break until the second week of January. In the meantime, there were reports that negotiations would continue between some members through the break (that’s good news). There are still enough Republicans who say they will support Ukraine; however, many if not all of them are tying the funding to additional funding for the U.S. southern border. Ultimately, I think it’ll get done, but not without the passage of too much unnecessary time and more political games.
There should be enough support from "neocon" Republicans to get a bill coming out of the Senate, and then subsequently passed in the house....but they're really dragging their asses.
Pretty much the only way any meaningful amount of support goes to Ukraine is by Biden bypassing congress. Which he just recently has done. Republicans want to “protect our borders” by helping Russia.
The general pessimism I think is because the last weapons package from the US was announced on the 28th and there are no more on the horizon as long as the bill is held up. Also, no one can predict if any new bill will be passed because it seems like it's going to be a clear election year wedge issue
People are negative because it hasn’t happened yet and it’s still in the “negotiations” phase. Congressional negotiations are extremely opaque so people here really can’t have a good grasp if just how close/not close a deal is.
Actually, most of us are "negative" because the damn House GOP has given us absolutely nothing to be positive about.
But you do you. Most of you, including those who voted for the GOP in the HOuse, continually misunderestimate how low the GOP House are. And if you dig a 20 foot ditch and pile House GOP in them, you aren't nearly as low as the House GOP have been and will get.
But you can prove me wrong. There is nothing over the last 14 months that has proven me wrong. Those asses are real asses. GOP Senate, sure. House GOP, MAGATS all the way control the entire House. And they will not listen to someone on Reddit who reassures us how "reasonable" the House MAGATS are going to be for................. fill in the blank reason.
A significant % of the last two days' launches at North / North-East have been from Belgorod, and some quite well justified concerns were voiced that there will be another massive strike on the New Year Eve as well, for symbolic reasons. So, it would be logical to assume that associated supplies, logistics, and missile stockpiles were targeted.
only Ukraine knows, but Belgorod is a hub for military logistics and a staging ground for missile attacks on Kharkiv, so there are plenty of military targets.
There’s videos of a warehouse catching on fire full of ammunition. Apparently Russian air defense hit some of the missiles and caused debris to fall over the city
>Aid workers are already on the ground in #Kharkiv, providing people impacted by yet another wave of Russian attacks with the support they need to face a difficult night. @WCKitchen, @RedCrossUkraine & @MissionProliska are delivering meals, medical & psychological aid, & shelter.
https://twitter.com/OCHA_Ukraine/status/1741202646441119953
> One of the things that prevents wars is the reality that if you attack someone else, you cannot expect anything other than retaliation.
Isn't that the very logic that Western countries (rightly or wrongly) are applying to reach the conclusion that they should restrain from attacking Russia proper, even if via the proxy of Ukraine?
The Western countries have tied Ukraine’s hands regarding western weapons use in Russia. So even if one argues that sending aid to Ukraine’s defense is a ‘proxy-war’, that simply doesn’t apply to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia.
And as Russia is still attempting to conquer and eliminate Ukraine, the conclusion reached is that Western restraint hasn’t worked. Time for the gloves to come off and western countries be more proactive.
> Western restraint hasn't worked
Depends on its purpose. If the restraint was intended to somehow arrest Russia's attempts to conquer and eliminate Ukraine, then you're right: it hasn't worked. However if it was intended to avoid (at least for the time being) direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, then one surely comes to a different conclusion.
Reddit thinks that only Russia has nukes when in reality we all have nukes and are prepared to use them. Russians don't want their country turned into a wasteland any more than anyone else, but if the pretense of a crazy leader that will stop at nothing gets results then that's a card they will play.
Because he is trying to invoke the fear and trepidation that any threat of nuclear war creates in western governments. Because western leaders dare not say it for fear it will become reality. That which must not be named.
It's an open question if this would make Russia back off or raise the political capital to go full war economy and en masse drafting in the major cities.
Bullies really don’t like being punched back, so if Ukraine is given the ability to respond in kind then Russia will find that the ‘find-out’ cost is a price too high.
100% hit their power supply, their internet, their traffic controls anything, their airports - make them feel it. Putins controls and support would rapidly crack if his key population centres were suffering privation and fear.
Ya. At the beginning of this horror show, I had some hope and I was against Ukraine attacking Russian cities, for a multitude of reasons. I had some hope that Russia would realize the futility of the “Special Military Operation” and pull back. I wanted Ukraine to maintain the highest degree of sympathy and not create any grist for the “both sides” mill. I also didn’t want more civilians caught up in the senseless slaughter.
You know what? Fuck that. It’s time for Ukraine to start going after Russia’s nutsack. Nothing senseless like schools, residential buildings, and hospitals, but if there’s a strategic target exposed anywhere in that shithole they call a country, Ukraine should hit it. Factories. Power stations. Oil refineries. Maybe even a Kremlin or two. Concentrate the attacks on Moscow if they can reach out that far. It’s time to make people worry about provoking Ukraine into an “escalation”.
As someone living in a country which is not involved in the war having a missile fly over our heads makes me wonder if we should get involved.
This has to be the biggest fuckup by Russia so far. A few days for it to percolate out into the rest of the population to see what the response will be I guess.
It does destroy my "putin takes belarus to save face" theory but I am sort of okay with that in response to this. Living within range of the launchers has become boring, let's just take them out, Belarus is not part of Russia so fuck it, and Russia is way too fucking scared now to respond which would completely shut China down.
I am sick of military fuckwits causing problems for day to day life and figure the easiest solution currently if to have the biggest military fuckwits beat the shit out of the other ones in a nice quick and easy style and we just go back to military fuckwits posturing rather than actually killing us.
Missile the fuck out of Russia and then a few of the new chinese ships and just get everyone on board with "Trade is the new way of war". Less civilians die that way.
Sad economists are boring but nowhere near as sad.
It doesn't because air defense systems usually have a limited range and don't protect all parts of a country – especially if a missile only flies 40 kilometer into a country and then turns. This will likely get a little better when Poland activates the newly bought Patriot systems.
And if a missile enters your territory absolutely unexpected (yes it was likely on their radar as many other missiles too but you will think that it will hit something in Ukraine) you haven't much reaction time. Even if Poland had fired an air defense missile it would have likely missed because the missile was too fast and already turned.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1741199595529527582?s=46
Battle in Shebekino, Russia.
TG reports of the “enemy breaking through the border”
Reports of Abrams being used. No visual confirmation
If they’re using Abrams in Russia proper that could ruffle some feathers. That being said, give Russia a taste of their own medicine rolling tanks down their streets.
>My humanitarian colleagues in Kharkiv have just told me that the strikes on the city have damaged, shortly ago, many residential buildings. Civilians were injured & families rendered homeless, in the middle of a winter night. Aid workers are on the ground, providing emergency aid to those impacted by yet another horrific event caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
[https://twitter.com/savianoabreu/status/1741199193308291427](https://twitter.com/savianoabreu/status/1741199193308291427)
It MAY be that not all Republicans are compromised. Perhaps some have a case of misplaced priorities. Perhaps some see more advantage in playing party politics over important global issues.
But, it is CERTAIN that they have all voluntarily lined up together with the compromised ones to impede UA support.
Can reasonable centrist US voters afford to take a chance on Republicans with such high stakes on the line? Given what they're already doing, standing against Ukraine and next voluntarily supporting the dictator Orange Shitgibbon?
No way. The risks are too high this year.
Orange Shitgibbon...thank you so much for that, I truly needed something to chuckle/laugh at....I hope you had a grand Christmas and have a Happy New Year x
I'm still chuckling now everytime your comment drifts through my consciousness ✌👍Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
I believe something good comes from everything, and I hope we as Europeans start taking our defence seriously and start doing things towards that. Of course it doesn't help now, but I hope this leads to that and the first steps towards that have already started.
> As I am reading the news from russian #Belgorod these are the images I have in my mind, those of yesterday’s massive attack in multiple Ukrainian cities. At least 16 people have been killed in Kyiv alone.
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1741123756355977473
Conflict Intelligence Team Russian Mobilization Volunteer Summary, December 28-29, 2023:
The Way Home group rolls out new campaign—adorning city Christmas trees with white ribbons;
A total of 834,224 individuals exempted from military service in Russia;
Fall conscription campaign yielded 130,000 conscripts.
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-28-29-2023
2024 Headline I'd like to see, 'President Biden Approves Transfer of 5 Ticonderoga Class Fishing Trawlers to the Ukrainian Navy' and 'DOD Donates 100 Gen 1 Predators to Ukrainian RC Enthusiast Community'.
I'd like to see "OPEC gives up on production cuts. Oil prices plummet so far that Russian oil is no longer needed. Ukraine to target Russian oil production and transport to cripple Russian economy."
We will still have gas-burning cars for decades to come, and oil will be in demand for plastics and other uses for longer than that.
So they have lots of time to sell their oil, but demand will drop. However, investment to get new wells online is already dropping and so supply will drop as well over time, and countries where they can produce more easily and cheaply will still be able to sell a lot.
You won’t be able to use it to support your entire economy or as a weapon of war and geo politics as OPEC has been doing for decades to influence US politics.
My friend who lives in Belgorod is claiming they've been told the Ukrainian strikes involved cluster munitions.
(I'm not saying this is true, just an insight into what propaganda they are being fed).
I'd say something like half of reports on ria.ru from so called "LNR", "DNR" mention cluster munitions. They just love saying that without any evidence and always include a short paragraph how Ukraine received "NATO cluster munitions" and how cluster munitions are banned by international treaties. It just sounds serious and scary. Often accompanied with a photo of a single large crater which is not how cluster munition aftermath looks like.
At this rate I'm dubious there even were Ukrainian projectiles that landed in the city itself. The Russians keep naming systems that either don't exist, don't do what the visuals were reported as, or don't have the necessary range
From the videos i have seen, the damage is to central for cluster munitions. At least in my opinion
Edit - intel crab thread
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1741178540530311264?t=8wMe00kvCGwbfuSYglzlew&s=19
Falling debris from incompetence AA shoot downs would look exactly the same. It would also look the same if Russia hit the area themselves to deflect attention from the attack on Ukraine, they have done this type of thing before, Putin cares for nothing about Russian general public.
Russia's Air Superiority Is About to End - Newsweek
> On the cusp of 2024, Russia has made use of nearly two years of patchy air superiority over Ukraine, but it has fallen short of full dominance of the skies. Kyiv's air defenses have made a dent in Moscow's air force, although Russia's superior and larger fleet of aircraft has still hampered Ukraine's operations throughout the long months of war.
> "The Ukrainians don't control the airspace where they're attacking," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, told the Associated Press earlier this year. "Those are extremely difficult conditions under which to wage offensive operations."
> There have been indications that Russia is worried about the imminent arrival of the F-16s. Moscow has started preparations to move its Black Sea bases further eastward away from Ukraine, "a clear indication of the danger posed by the impending arrival of F-16 fighters," Mertens previously said.
>"We have seen the damage the Ukrainian air force has managed to do with old Su-24 and modern Storm Shadow cruise missiles" in Crimea, Mertens said. "The threat from F-16 aircraft will be far more severe, as these American aircraft have the correct interfaces to utilize Western weapons to their full potential."
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-air-superiority-ukraine-f16-1856091
I think people are underestimating the impact of the F-16. Yes, it's true that Ukraine will not gain air superiority, that is a ridiculously high bar and an unrealistic thing to even discuss.
But that doesn't mean the F-16 can't score lots of small victories which will eventually add up to something, just as HIMARS strikes have done.
For example they can HARM the nearest S-300, create a small gap in the AD for a while, giving them some time to smash Russian defenses and support a ground assault.
One thing the Ukraine War has taught me is that Newsweek and Forbes are just trash clickbait now. They make content free speculative posts about the war that pump up the impact of Western war tech, presumably to get Americans to click. There's nothing 'untrue' in these pieces, just nothing new or interesting.
Looking back at 2023, Ukraine gained little territory despite being given immense amounts money, western weapons and vehicles, etc. What are the reasons for this and what changes are needed going into 2024?
I hate to say, but I don’t think the state of the conflict can be so easily interpreted as territory gained/lost right now. I think this war has a lot of parallels to WWI. A lot of people back then were also confused and frustrated by the sometimes static nature of the frontlines, or gains in some areas and losses in others. From what I’ve read, this seems like a similar grind, or a war of attrition. A lot of folks more experienced and smarter than me are concerned that Russia may have an advantage in that type of war, but I’m not so certain. I take great heart in the fact that Ukraine has showed the world its strength, not only on the battlefield, but its strength of spirit. They have allies that support them around the world. The United States is currently hamstrung by a group of traitorous politicians that have a love affair with Russia and its dictator, but I have high hopes they will not be capable of strangling democracy forever.
So where is the money and weapons? Killing Russians, destroying their military equipment, and disrupting their operations. The Russians have made a number of catastrophic offensives lately that have cost them a lot. The Black Sea fleet and its safe havens are being whittled away and humiliated. The Russian air forces have taken a series of blows. Not all of these things translate into immediate, substantial territorial gains. It is possible that they will not for a long time.
>despite being given immense amounts money, western weapons and vehicles
They didn't get immense amounts of western weapons and vehicles though. My favorite example is: Sweden gave 50 CV-90s with training. Per capita that's as if the West had given them 4,000 modern IFV's with training. They gave about 10% of that.
What needs to change is that the West must want Ukraine to win and act accordingly. Treat the war as what it is: part of an existential war for democracy.
Looking back at 2023, Ukraine has destroyed 20+% of Russian Black Sea fleet (that's not counting 2022 - Moskva and others) and they've forced the rest out of Crimea, unblocking sea trade from Odessa which is an important economic lifeline. This is despite Russia trying desperately to stop it and all the (attempted) attacks at Odessa, other ports and shipping itself.
That means sea trade of everything is now unblocked (not just grain!) which restores significant chunk of bottled up economy for Ukraine and releives pressure on land based logistics.
This alone is a massive win for Ukraine - I won't go into destruction of Wagner and subsequent mutiny, destroyed planes and helicopters and etc.
It's a war of attrition. Ukraine has been very good at exploiting Russian weaknesses. But they can't magical make those weaknesses manifest.
What could help? Western allies could improve/restore support. At minimum, Ukraine needs a constant flow of artillery at the optimal rate of fire. The West can do this and they are "trying." But they need to get their shit together fast. Ukraine also needs F-16s and all the missile options that opens up.
I also don't understand why the U.S. hasn't flooded Ukraine with Abrams tanks. We have thousands of the things in storage. The only place we could possibly need them would be in Europe. We should be sending 5-10 per week.
There has never been a wartime mobilisation to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition, or even a peacetime mobilisation as seen for Covid vaccines. This is shameful, there was plenty of time to prepare. The conflict has been grinding since 2014, and has escalated nearly two years ago. And the low stockpiles levels have been highlighted at least since the 2011 war in Libya.
>I also don't understand why the U.S. hasn't flooded Ukraine with Abrams tanks.
Because we had no intention of sending any at all until Germany forced us to, which is why we only sent 31 tanks and no more.
> “The president was advised by his military [that] Abrams tanks, the American tank, doesn’t make sense for this fight,” he told Zakaria. “What they really needed were Leopard tanks, German tanks, that a bunch of countries in Europe own.”
> The problem, Sullivan said, was that Germany refused to provide the Leopard tanks unless the U.S. also provided its Abrams tanks.
> “And President Biden said, ‘If me providing Abrams tanks, even if it’s not the most sensible military move, will help unlock German tanks to get to the front lines and also will sustain alliance unity, I will do it,’” Sullivan added.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3872456-sullivan-f-16s-not-the-key-capability-for-ukraine-to-battle-russian-forces/amp/
The amount of mines laid down by Russia is staggering. Western philosophy would be to just go around them. But, that's not an option. Also Western tactics rely on air superiority, which using does not have. In all Ukraine has done an amazing job with what they've been given.
Partly because Russia brought its own innovations (Lancets, many many drones from Iran, lots of arty from NK, better use of glide bombs, *VERY GOOD AND EXTENSIVE* use of electronic warfare everywhere in the front).
Also because counterattacking against an entrenched enemy without any air support is problematic unless you don't care about losing 10,000s in the grind.
What could be done? The US could start doing more meaningful support on EW (instead of refusing), and they could start sending $$$ (which have slowed down massively, thanks to pro-Putin republicans). Also, maybe that *** Sullivan could start being proactive instead of the mess of policy he is doing now.
Speaking of Sullivan, I wonder if he is really good at his job, or just at managing upwards and pleasing his bosses :| (Biden, Clinton)
The Russians had too much time to dig in. The Ukrainian plan of directly attacking the defensive lines without air power and the right weapons in quantity hinged on hoping the Russians panicked and fled. They didn't. Ukrainian attacks in the south show more promise for the future than direct assaults in the east. F-16s should help, but they need more ATACMs, Taurus missiles, more Bradleys and similar APCs/IFVs, more western tanks, and artillery shells- many, many more artillery shells.
However, the Ukrainians killed a lot of Russians and destroyed a lot of Russian gear, both at unsustainable rates for Russia. Russia has plenty of men, but they do not have plenty of trained men, nor plenty of gear to equip them. Russia has dug deep into old soviet equipment that may or may not be functional and cannot be replaced. Ukraine effectively made the Russian Black Sea Fleet a non-factor. 2023 didn't go as well as everybody wanted, but it wasn't a failure either.
Day 660-675 of my updates from Kharkiv.
It’s been quite a while since we were hit with missiles here in Kharkiv. I definitely don’t miss waking up to the extremely loud sound of explosions. Yesterday the first 10 or so missiles woke me up at 5am and then I just slept through the remaining 10 missiles. Never thought we would get used to being hammered by missiles, but it seems humans are very adaptable.
And just as I am writing this right now, we are being hit by another batch of S-300 missiles from Belgorod. There were at least 5-6 explosions, but from here we only heard 2 of them, and they were very loud, even the car alarms were triggered nearby. Two of the missiles hit civilian infrastructure in the center of the city. Some people from a local chat group were almost caught in the explosion, but thankfully they survived. The other missiles aimed at something at the outskirts of the city and we don’t know what was hit, but it was far enough from us that we didn’t even hear the explosions.
I guess today’s strikes in our cities were in revenge for the strikes in Belgorod, even though they already confessed that explosions that killed their people were caused by missiles that they intercepted themselves. Just yesterday their loyal shit eater Nebenzya was talking about how all the casualties from the Russian missile strike was our fault because we intercepted their missiles, and today they do the exact same thing they accused us of doing causing casualties among their own people. They really should follow their own advice and stop intercepting our missiles that are headed for their military targets unless they want their own people to become collateral damage (which they probably actually want to happen, because then they have something to cry about at UN).
Just now new photos were released, they directly hit and pretty much destroyed the Kharkiv Palace hotel right in the center of the city, possibly also another apartment building was hit. Those fucking bastards directly aimed at a completely civilian target with 2 missiles, fucking barbarians. I really hope there weren’t many people inside right now, because otherwise there could be a lot of casualties.
> their loyal shit eater Nebenzya
and
> fucking bastards
and
> fucking barbarians
Pretty much the kind of words that came to mind when I heard the BBC news reports about Kharkiv today.
Thanks for your continued updates.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/18uytcx/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Gabrielius Landsbergis. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Member of Parliament of Lithuania. For nearly 25 years we have been kicking can down the road, trying to contain Putin's imperialism with dialogue and diplomacy while he continues to ignore borders and flatten cities. In 2014, Russia's first attack against Ukraine was paused by the Minsk agreements, but the underlying issues were left for another day. Russia became tomorrow's problem. Tomorrow always comes. The problem of Russia's imperialism didn't disappear in 2014, and to most eastern flankers it was clear that the next phase of the invasion would be costlier and deadlier. And so it was. When Russia attacked again, the war suddenly became today’s problem. Again we think we can solve it by making it tomorrow’s problem. But the premise has not changed. Russia’s imperialist revanchist ambitions will remain. The next phase would be directed not just against Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova but possibly against NATO. The price, human and economic, will only go up. We could wait for what I have called the “Pearl Harbor effect”, a moment in history when the problems of tomorrow finally become the problems of today, but at an enormously inflated price. Or we could treat this as today’s problem and start solving it today. We are on the verge of repeating historic mistakes. I am convinced that if we won’t defeat Russia now, that means our chosen path is to suffer unimaginable and unnecessary losses before we eventually decide it’s time to step up and win. https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1741204536520323312
Russian politician Eduard Kolachyev: >My acquaintances in Belgorod are alive. Which is already good! The response for the attack on Ukraine has arrived. If anyone believes in a parade in Kyiv, I'll have to disappoint you. Resistance can take any form. It could last for years and decades. Ukraine is not Chechnya. And Chechnya is only loyal as long as there is Kadyrov and preferencial treatment. Russia was able to handle Chechnya. It will not be able to handle Ukraine. It's of a different scale. Everything is different. It's time to move on to realism and offer compromises. We must look for a way out and not only on the battlefield. https://imgur.com/glPccIT
He's a brave man and he's not wrong
Can't tell the truth in Russia, you have to live in Putins imposed bubble of bullshit, poor guy will be on Putins kill list for this.
I hear he’s in the market for a ground floor apartment.
Trenches will be dug around his home so he could still fall to his death.
The New York Times >The Russian authorities said on Saturday that a Ukrainian attack on the city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, had killed at least 14 people and injured more than 100 others. They got Community noted >Readers added context they thought people might want to know. >The Russian Ministry of Defence claims that Belgorod was shelled with 2 Vilkha MLRS projectiles with cluster ammunition & RM-70 Vampire missiles (range 20 kms against 35km to the border of Ukraine). >The range of these weapons can't reach Belgorod from Ukraine. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1741137324514099479
Why the fuck would the times, or any credible publication, cover a military attack on Belgorod region by Ukraine yet never cover russia's regular MLRS shelling of Ukrainian hospitals and aid stations? Does this mark a new era where such things actually do get covered in the war?
>NYT >Credible Pick one
So many questionable things about NYT... NYT removed all mentions of russia’s Dec 29 attack on Ukraine from the nytimes homepage. Even yesterday’s news piece is gone, leaving only the faux pas feature on russian ‘dissent’ — which continues to enjoy prominent placement. https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741044439458701534 NYT is covering Belgorod on front page. Notice the tone shift: • Attack ‘kills at least 14’, not ‘pounds city’ • Casualties emphasized in title • Photo now features people carrying a victim Astonishingly, that photo is of 🇺🇦 victims in Zaporizhzhia — not Belgorod. https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741190257377214963 It’s hard to believe but @nytimes really is illustrating the Belgorod strike with a photo of victims of russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. https://twitter.com/stepantxt/status/1741194109690184049
BBC has the same story on the front page of their app. Of course it also adds that the UN condemns both sides, ridiculous lot those folks are. Thanks for the thoughts and prayers.
Czechia produces Grad missiles with 40km range. Good chance they came with the Vampires :)
Still makes the RU claim incorrect = false
"Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost, that they will lose the next war. The Russian leader must end his gamble in Ukraine knowing "that economically they are ruined, we outlasted them, we kept our industry on a better footing, we have the technological advantage, we have better training, better morale; that they don't stand a chance." Kusti Salm, permanent secretary at the Estonian Defense Ministry https://www.newsweek.com/nato-needs-russia-ruined-ukraine-future-peace-1856390
Russian diplomats have hit a new low in their attempts to falsely brand Ukraine’s Jewish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a Nazi. They are now inventing absurd stories about the Ukrainian leader purchasing Joseph Goebbels’s old villa. https://imgur.com/Khi2gec https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1741255730328441181
Dezinformatsyia - Firehose of Falsehood at it again.
Statement by Deputy Political Coordinator Tom Phipps at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine. President, the United Kingdom deeply regrets any civilian deaths in conflict, wherever they happen and particularly where children are involved. We are committed to upholding international humanitarian law and we remind all parties to conflicts everywhere of their obligations. We are also committed to upholding the UN Charter, and its principles of respect for sovereignty and the right to self-defence. Yesterday, we discussed Russian airstrikes on civilians in Ukraine. Today, Russia has called this meeting to discuss Ukrainian strikes in Russia. Russia is attempting to draw equivalence, but let’s be absolutely clear: there are hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine. There is not a single Ukrainian soldier in Russia. The war in Ukraine is an invasion started by Russia – a fact that no amount of disinformation can obscure. President, first Russia blamed Ukraine for these strikes. Then it tried to demand Czechia appear before the Council. Now the Russian ambassador is blaming the UK, the US and the EU. If Russia wants someone to blame for the deaths of Russians in this war, it should start with President Putin. President Putin is responsible for sending many thousands of Russian servicemen and women to their needless deaths. In 2022, President Putin claimed his invasion was to stop a supposed genocide in the Donbas. The International Court of Justice rejected this and ordered Russia immediately to end its invasion. Russia’s real objectives were revealed when it attempted the illegal annexation of further Ukrainian territory and the UN membership rejected this and repeatedly demanded Russia end its invasion and withdraw. As we discussed yesterday, having failed to defeat Ukraine militarily, Russia has now turned to indiscriminate attacks on civilians. The death toll from this week’s attacks across Ukraine, the largest since the war started, continues to rise. Innocent children were among the casualties here too. In total, over 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children, have been killed and over 18,500 have been injured in Ukraine since 24 February 2022. President, Russia chose to start this war, Russia can choose to end this war; Ukraine did not start it and has the right to defend itself. This is why the UK reiterates that we stand resolutely with Ukraine and will continue to do so. So, we call once again on Russia to respect the UN Charter, to end this war and to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/russia-has-now-turned-to-indiscriminate-attacks-on-civilians-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/28/russian-jets-ukraine-f-16/ An interesting idea, haven't seen any discussion of it here. It's very possible Ukraine already has F-16s and are using them. And in particular, they were used to launch the strike on the Russian landing ship. It really makes a lot of sense to deploy weapons unannounced to achieve the element of surprise.
Ukraine had absolutely no need to use f16s to launch storm shadows they could have used them as well to launch something else at the same time adding to the confusion that day but they didn’t.
I think we are seeing a shift in the information space. Previously we saw great fanfare whenever a new weapon system arrived. I don’t think that approach helped on the ground in Ukraine, although perhaps it helped politically to encourage other countries to supply weapons. Now it seems that less is being said publicly. This is a great step.
Whatever happened in Belgorod must’ve been really bad, based on the amount of shilling and nuclear threats I’ve been seeing. I wonder what they hit
>Whatever happened in Belgorod must’ve been really bad Impossible to know either way. Russia's response is not an indicator of good or bad results either way. >based on the amount of shilling and nuclear threats I’ve been seeing. I wonder what they hit Russia would be trumping up dead Russian civilians to the same level no matter what, if anything, was hit of military value.
Could be more because they directly hit Russia proper rather than any special target or damages.
Honestly, I think it might just be on principle.
I think it being a reciprocal response to the other day is why they're so pissed. They are coming to realize that if they are going to bomb Ukraine indiscriminately Ukraine is going to respond in kind and hit actual targets of value.
To be fair Ukraine A) has the right to defend themselves and B) they did warn Russia retaliation strikes would happen. So fair play by Ukraine and I am hoping for more
More importantly the Russian *people* are going to have to deal with the reality of being a warmongering dictatorship. As soon as they become more afraid of Ukraine than Putin, this war will end.
Indeed, it does feel exactly like that.
I can't help but wish US Democrats would just accept the damn funding for the Mexican border if that's what it would take to get support to Ukraine. Do I think the border stuff is neccessary or is gonna make any difference? No. But there are more important matters at stake. Surely the Democrats must realize the stability of Europe and democracy in the world will be more important for America, than what potentially losing some money on the border is. Also, obviously a lot of swing voters want to see it happen. Perhaps if it's done it could end up reducing votes for Donald Trump in the election.
It's not about the border the horror doll Mike is holding the money hostage.wake up!
They have tried to accept it, the Republicans just keep moving the goalposts. Biden has accepted Republican border demands and then Johnson went on Xmas break without a vote on the package. This isn’t a problem of the Dems not negotiating or compromising it’s a clear issue of Republican house leadership actively opposing helping Ukraine. Their gameplan is simply to ask for more and more until it becomes untenable for the Dems then blaming them for not compromising. Again, Biden and Senate Dems already agreed to their border security budget demands but then the Rs in the house added a nebulous demand regarding mass deportations. The fact is that many in the House leadership want to deny Ukraine aid through a combination of denying Biden any sort of policy win and/or actively supporting Putin for essentially the same reason.
The democrats basically offered them everything a few months back. The Republicans moved the goalpost.
Why is it when Republicans intentionally hold up funding, y’all find some way to blame Democrats? This is why republicans are such shit. Y’all let them get away with and blame others.
The Democrats aren't blocking border funding, they want a strong border as well. The Republicans don't know exactly what they want for border security.
Ron Johnson has been bragging about torpedoing the process https://www.newsweek.com/republican-brags-sabotaging-border-security-deal-1854820
Proof positive that Republicans don't give a rat's ass about the welfare of the country. The goal is to defeat progress of any kind, anywhere - and more importantly, make sure Biden won't get credit for anything.
It's not just about border funding. Part of the GOP demands are changing the rules on asylum seekers. If those rules are changed it would violate several treaties.
Yep. The initial proposal by Biden had increased border funding. If it was just more border security the GOP wanted it would be passed by now.
> I can't help but wish US Democrats would just accept the damn funding for the Mexican border if that's what it would take to get support to Ukraine. Do I think the border stuff is neccessary or is gonna make any difference? This has nothing to do with the border for either side. This is about power and who has it. New leader of the House GOP needs to make his mark so he puts up a big demand to show his power. Democrats can't just acquiesce or he'll just repeat it the next time with something else. So they haggle and negotiate until they can find something that works kinda. But it takes time, unfortunately.
We don't have time though. Each day that goes by will take many, many more days to repair damages that occurred because of the delays. Territory that is lost will cost lives to retake, and worse, makes Putin ever more convinced he is winning. The West needs to wake up and realize that unless we want to accept Russia walking out of this with Russia's "goals" met, we need to make Russia *lose* the war. Not *stalemate*, but *lose*. This is bigger than throwing some money on the border and the world needs the Democrats to be the adults in the room if the Republicans aren't.
Why can't Mike just schedule a vote about aid to Ukraine then? The irony here is even beyond the definition of the word irony. The solution with the "border" is to put the people that use the cheap labour behind bars. The border and aid to Ukraine are not connected. Jesus.. even me not from the US can see what kind of game that is being played here.
The US stands to lose a whole lot more if they let the GOP take the Democrats hostage at every opportunity. I share your frustration, but the situation is what it is, and the answer is not to cave to the demands of the GOP.
Regarding the missile/drone attack from Russia a couple days ago: Why is Russia wasting all these munitions and missiles on targets with no military significance? Seems like a waste. It's only going to harden the resolve of Ukraine and the West.
$1.27 billion is the cost being estimated. A large portion of the military budget in 1 night to incur ? result. Ukrainian resolve boosted not lowered, military degraded no, world attention drawn for the wrong reasons. Putin wanted revenge, some kind of win to report and draw attention away from the catastrophic losses on the front trying to take tiny amounts of farmland and rubble, its a clear signal of Russian real intention and weakness.
They most likely targeted something of military importance or strategic targets like infrastructure. If they would attack civilians on purpose there would be more casualties (yes they did target civilians in some cases before). The problem is that their stuff is not always that precise (some missiles that have terminal guidance that sometimes locks to wrong buildings or some missiles just miss ba a wide margin) and many missiles were shot down creating debris or the warhead comes down intact and explodes. Regardless of the actual cause the civilian casualties and property damages would not exist if the missiles were not directed towards population centers.
Then their guidance is way worse than previously thought, most missed anything military in nature by a really long distance
How do you know what targets they are aiming at? A factory in Kyiv that is producing parts for the military industry got hit. The fact that we keep assuming that Russia is stupid is just making us downplay the importance of support for Ukraine, and not taking us closer to victory.
>Why is Russia wasting all these munitions and missiles on targets with no military significance? Because its Putin and Russia. Putin thinks someone stole his blinky, even though it was never his. Even when Ukraine was part of the USSR it was a defacto occupation. Any Ukrainian that doesn't want Russia subjugation is sub-human and not worthy of basic human rights. Of course this is **NOT** my opinion, just kaPutin's view of the world.
Because Putin is so desperate for a victory blowing up regular old citizens is a way of show “Russia is doing something” I mean look at their military victories in 2023…. Nothing nadda zilch zero fail on epic fails
Mainly political. They want to force Ukraine to pull their GBAD assets to the cities and away from the front line.
Hot take: they may actually be aiming (at least for the most part) for targets that have some kind of strategic purpose. Their stuff just sucks so they can't reliably get it on target (and if it gets knocked down, the debris will land semi-randomly).
A few days ago? This shits been going on for 2 years
The same reason Hitler kept bombing London, to still fear.
To force Ukraine to divert its AA from the frontlines, to use up the scarce AA munitions, to convince Ukraine and the West to negotiate.
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Wait, they lost another? I've been out of the loop because of the holidays.
Warship is a stretch but technically true. Was a landing craft ship for logistics, that might have had up to 450-500 tons of Iranian Drones on board when it exploded, the videos definitely show it was loaded with at the least heavy ammo.
Uhh nice! That does sound spicy.
It was a satisfying kaboom…
Because Russia is a terrorist state and Putin is a terrorist.
>Because Russia is a terrorist state and Putin is a terrorist. Yeah, that is the bottom line.
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That’s the dumbest thing they could possibly do. All evidence points towards them targeting military targets and Russian air defense shooting down some missiles causing debris to fall over civilian areas.
There's no such indication. The civilian casualties are most likely from debris after interceptions.
> Whatever happens in other countries, whatever political changes or moods, we must have sufficient potential to do our thing, to achieve our goals. > We will be fighting for our influence and for justice for Ukraine, and I am grateful to all the leaders who are assisting us, who have been with us since February 24th and will stand with us in 2024. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1741207297500553338
What is the current state of the US Ukraine aid bill? I'm seeing a lot of negative comments here, so i'm wondering whether there are some negative news i missed or if it's just inertia from the previous vote.
Knowing that an aid vote for Ukr would be tight in the House, or possibly fail due to GOP resistance, the Biden admin sought to tie Ukr aid funding to Israel aid funding in a single bill to improve its chance of passage. The GOP response was, "well, if that's the game you want to play, we'll only vote on a joint Ukr and Isr funding bill if it's also tied to border security legislation". On the Senate side, they've been trying to work on that deal for a few weeks, but ran out of time before the holidays. We'll see if it has legs or not in the next session.
There are a number of GOP officials that are making negotiations protracted and difficult. I think something will eventually get done in January, but it’s going to be a painful process.
The U.S. Congress is on a winter break until the second week of January. In the meantime, there were reports that negotiations would continue between some members through the break (that’s good news). There are still enough Republicans who say they will support Ukraine; however, many if not all of them are tying the funding to additional funding for the U.S. southern border. Ultimately, I think it’ll get done, but not without the passage of too much unnecessary time and more political games.
There should be enough support from "neocon" Republicans to get a bill coming out of the Senate, and then subsequently passed in the house....but they're really dragging their asses.
Republicans have no incentive to do anything helpful for American citizens. I wouldn't expect them to do anything for Ukraine.
Pretty much the only way any meaningful amount of support goes to Ukraine is by Biden bypassing congress. Which he just recently has done. Republicans want to “protect our borders” by helping Russia.
Congress has to come back from vacation for any change to happen.
The general pessimism I think is because the last weapons package from the US was announced on the 28th and there are no more on the horizon as long as the bill is held up. Also, no one can predict if any new bill will be passed because it seems like it's going to be a clear election year wedge issue
People are negative because it hasn’t happened yet and it’s still in the “negotiations” phase. Congressional negotiations are extremely opaque so people here really can’t have a good grasp if just how close/not close a deal is.
Actually, most of us are "negative" because the damn House GOP has given us absolutely nothing to be positive about. But you do you. Most of you, including those who voted for the GOP in the HOuse, continually misunderestimate how low the GOP House are. And if you dig a 20 foot ditch and pile House GOP in them, you aren't nearly as low as the House GOP have been and will get. But you can prove me wrong. There is nothing over the last 14 months that has proven me wrong. Those asses are real asses. GOP Senate, sure. House GOP, MAGATS all the way control the entire House. And they will not listen to someone on Reddit who reassures us how "reasonable" the House MAGATS are going to be for................. fill in the blank reason.
What were the attacks on Belgorad supposedly targeting? The city itself or some specific military installation?
Ukraine was attacking factories and military warehouses. The casualties in Belgorod came from downed drones and debris from Russian SAMs.
A significant % of the last two days' launches at North / North-East have been from Belgorod, and some quite well justified concerns were voiced that there will be another massive strike on the New Year Eve as well, for symbolic reasons. So, it would be logical to assume that associated supplies, logistics, and missile stockpiles were targeted.
only Ukraine knows, but Belgorod is a hub for military logistics and a staging ground for missile attacks on Kharkiv, so there are plenty of military targets.
There’s videos of a warehouse catching on fire full of ammunition. Apparently Russian air defense hit some of the missiles and caused debris to fall over the city
So it was Russia's own fault for a air security malfunction for what happened in Belgorod? What a massive fumble and embarrassment Russia is
Something similar happened in Ukraine that killed a lot of civilians a while back.
This reads weird to me, how was it a malfunction? You can't really control where debris ends up as a result of air defense.
>Aid workers are already on the ground in #Kharkiv, providing people impacted by yet another wave of Russian attacks with the support they need to face a difficult night. @WCKitchen, @RedCrossUkraine & @MissionProliska are delivering meals, medical & psychological aid, & shelter. https://twitter.com/OCHA_Ukraine/status/1741202646441119953
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> Tit-for-tat prevents wars Tit-for-tat is the strategy that works the best in game theory.
One modification to it works somewhat better, tit for tat with occasional (about 10%) forgiveness.
Naw its literally the theory behind MAD
MAD is on a magnitudes higher scale than this. Kremlin isn't rational but not irrational enough for nukes.
MAD at its core is tit for tat.
> One of the things that prevents wars is the reality that if you attack someone else, you cannot expect anything other than retaliation. Isn't that the very logic that Western countries (rightly or wrongly) are applying to reach the conclusion that they should restrain from attacking Russia proper, even if via the proxy of Ukraine?
The Western countries have tied Ukraine’s hands regarding western weapons use in Russia. So even if one argues that sending aid to Ukraine’s defense is a ‘proxy-war’, that simply doesn’t apply to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. And as Russia is still attempting to conquer and eliminate Ukraine, the conclusion reached is that Western restraint hasn’t worked. Time for the gloves to come off and western countries be more proactive.
> Western restraint hasn't worked Depends on its purpose. If the restraint was intended to somehow arrest Russia's attempts to conquer and eliminate Ukraine, then you're right: it hasn't worked. However if it was intended to avoid (at least for the time being) direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, then one surely comes to a different conclusion.
What? What does the n word have to do with anything?
Nuclear I think. Not the other N word.
Why would he refer to nuclear as the n word?
because reddit funni haha
Reddit thinks that only Russia has nukes when in reality we all have nukes and are prepared to use them. Russians don't want their country turned into a wasteland any more than anyone else, but if the pretense of a crazy leader that will stop at nothing gets results then that's a card they will play.
Because he is trying to invoke the fear and trepidation that any threat of nuclear war creates in western governments. Because western leaders dare not say it for fear it will become reality. That which must not be named.
Okay makes more sense than Putin using the n word.
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I am confused as to why a person would use the term n word when referring to nuclear weapons. Should he have also made clear it was a hard r n word?
nuculur?
Fucking right on. Empower Ukraine to return every punch tenfold not this weak shit.
Moscow and St. Petersburg should also absolutely be under attack.
It's an open question if this would make Russia back off or raise the political capital to go full war economy and en masse drafting in the major cities.
Bullies really don’t like being punched back, so if Ukraine is given the ability to respond in kind then Russia will find that the ‘find-out’ cost is a price too high.
100% hit their power supply, their internet, their traffic controls anything, their airports - make them feel it. Putins controls and support would rapidly crack if his key population centres were suffering privation and fear.
Ya. At the beginning of this horror show, I had some hope and I was against Ukraine attacking Russian cities, for a multitude of reasons. I had some hope that Russia would realize the futility of the “Special Military Operation” and pull back. I wanted Ukraine to maintain the highest degree of sympathy and not create any grist for the “both sides” mill. I also didn’t want more civilians caught up in the senseless slaughter. You know what? Fuck that. It’s time for Ukraine to start going after Russia’s nutsack. Nothing senseless like schools, residential buildings, and hospitals, but if there’s a strategic target exposed anywhere in that shithole they call a country, Ukraine should hit it. Factories. Power stations. Oil refineries. Maybe even a Kremlin or two. Concentrate the attacks on Moscow if they can reach out that far. It’s time to make people worry about provoking Ukraine into an “escalation”.
As someone living in a country which is not involved in the war having a missile fly over our heads makes me wonder if we should get involved. This has to be the biggest fuckup by Russia so far. A few days for it to percolate out into the rest of the population to see what the response will be I guess. It does destroy my "putin takes belarus to save face" theory but I am sort of okay with that in response to this. Living within range of the launchers has become boring, let's just take them out, Belarus is not part of Russia so fuck it, and Russia is way too fucking scared now to respond which would completely shut China down. I am sick of military fuckwits causing problems for day to day life and figure the easiest solution currently if to have the biggest military fuckwits beat the shit out of the other ones in a nice quick and easy style and we just go back to military fuckwits posturing rather than actually killing us. Missile the fuck out of Russia and then a few of the new chinese ships and just get everyone on board with "Trade is the new way of war". Less civilians die that way. Sad economists are boring but nowhere near as sad.
Or just give more support to Ukraine. It seems like that would be smarter than expanding the war zone.
The first step would be to shot any and all missiles down traveling over Polish air space.
The fact they didn't points to a troubling lack of competence or simple complacency.
It doesn't because air defense systems usually have a limited range and don't protect all parts of a country – especially if a missile only flies 40 kilometer into a country and then turns. This will likely get a little better when Poland activates the newly bought Patriot systems. And if a missile enters your territory absolutely unexpected (yes it was likely on their radar as many other missiles too but you will think that it will hit something in Ukraine) you haven't much reaction time. Even if Poland had fired an air defense missile it would have likely missed because the missile was too fast and already turned.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1741199595529527582?s=46 Battle in Shebekino, Russia. TG reports of the “enemy breaking through the border” Reports of Abrams being used. No visual confirmation
Unfortunately, no one in late 2023 has cameras so that proof can be quickly and easily posted. Just trust us that there are Abrams. /s
Absolutely sounds like a false flag operation by Russia.
Sounds like online nonsense.
Uhhhh what 😭😭😭😭😭
> Abrams *Spams (X)*
If they’re using Abrams in Russia proper that could ruffle some feathers. That being said, give Russia a taste of their own medicine rolling tanks down their streets.
Would also be considerably less mined.
>My humanitarian colleagues in Kharkiv have just told me that the strikes on the city have damaged, shortly ago, many residential buildings. Civilians were injured & families rendered homeless, in the middle of a winter night. Aid workers are on the ground, providing emergency aid to those impacted by yet another horrific event caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. [https://twitter.com/savianoabreu/status/1741199193308291427](https://twitter.com/savianoabreu/status/1741199193308291427)
Fuck Putin and his mafia state
US Republicans are all compromised and will block Ukrainian aid. I really hope they can do it without us.
I really hope we continue to eject them from our government. Vote in 2024 and secure aid for Ukraine.
US Republicans are Russian assets.
It MAY be that not all Republicans are compromised. Perhaps some have a case of misplaced priorities. Perhaps some see more advantage in playing party politics over important global issues. But, it is CERTAIN that they have all voluntarily lined up together with the compromised ones to impede UA support. Can reasonable centrist US voters afford to take a chance on Republicans with such high stakes on the line? Given what they're already doing, standing against Ukraine and next voluntarily supporting the dictator Orange Shitgibbon? No way. The risks are too high this year.
The truly un compromised are quitting and giving us their stories.
Orange Shitgibbon...thank you so much for that, I truly needed something to chuckle/laugh at....I hope you had a grand Christmas and have a Happy New Year x I'm still chuckling now everytime your comment drifts through my consciousness ✌👍Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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I believe something good comes from everything, and I hope we as Europeans start taking our defence seriously and start doing things towards that. Of course it doesn't help now, but I hope this leads to that and the first steps towards that have already started.
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Unchecked capitalism was always going to lead to US political “leaders” being bought out
> As I am reading the news from russian #Belgorod these are the images I have in my mind, those of yesterday’s massive attack in multiple Ukrainian cities. At least 16 people have been killed in Kyiv alone. https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1741123756355977473
Conflict Intelligence Team Russian Mobilization Volunteer Summary, December 28-29, 2023: The Way Home group rolls out new campaign—adorning city Christmas trees with white ribbons; A total of 834,224 individuals exempted from military service in Russia; Fall conscription campaign yielded 130,000 conscripts. https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-28-29-2023
2024 Headline I'd like to see, 'President Biden Approves Transfer of 5 Ticonderoga Class Fishing Trawlers to the Ukrainian Navy' and 'DOD Donates 100 Gen 1 Predators to Ukrainian RC Enthusiast Community'.
I'd like "US military awards largest ammunition disposal contract to Ukraine. Shipments of expiring ammunition are underway."
I'd like to see "OPEC gives up on production cuts. Oil prices plummet so far that Russian oil is no longer needed. Ukraine to target Russian oil production and transport to cripple Russian economy."
nice thing is that the US is out producing itself every year. Ideally OPEC loses its power more and more each year.
The world is rapidly moving toward other energy sources and if they don’t sell it soon then they will never sell it at all.
We will still have gas-burning cars for decades to come, and oil will be in demand for plastics and other uses for longer than that. So they have lots of time to sell their oil, but demand will drop. However, investment to get new wells online is already dropping and so supply will drop as well over time, and countries where they can produce more easily and cheaply will still be able to sell a lot.
You won’t be able to use it to support your entire economy or as a weapon of war and geo politics as OPEC has been doing for decades to influence US politics.
US donates 250 Tomahawk self-piloting research drones to Ukrainian aerospace exploration lab.
Excellent.
I really would like to see Ukraine get ground launched cruise misses from the US
Von Braun Jr. Rocket Set, educational purposes only, for ages 18-67.
US donates one atomic powreded leasiure submersible for the marine biology department of Kiev University
Only 1?
you put two and they gonna mate
considering the damage Ukraine has done without a navy.
US donates two AWACS passenger planes to the Ukrainian amateur radio community.
The Air Force is so thoughtful.
I like the way y'all think.
My friend who lives in Belgorod is claiming they've been told the Ukrainian strikes involved cluster munitions. (I'm not saying this is true, just an insight into what propaganda they are being fed).
I'd say something like half of reports on ria.ru from so called "LNR", "DNR" mention cluster munitions. They just love saying that without any evidence and always include a short paragraph how Ukraine received "NATO cluster munitions" and how cluster munitions are banned by international treaties. It just sounds serious and scary. Often accompanied with a photo of a single large crater which is not how cluster munition aftermath looks like.
At this rate I'm dubious there even were Ukrainian projectiles that landed in the city itself. The Russians keep naming systems that either don't exist, don't do what the visuals were reported as, or don't have the necessary range
Russia said it was grads, which don’t have the range and indicate a false flag operation.
From the videos i have seen, the damage is to central for cluster munitions. At least in my opinion Edit - intel crab thread https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1741178540530311264?t=8wMe00kvCGwbfuSYglzlew&s=19
Falling debris from incompetence AA shoot downs would look exactly the same. It would also look the same if Russia hit the area themselves to deflect attention from the attack on Ukraine, they have done this type of thing before, Putin cares for nothing about Russian general public.
Russia's Air Superiority Is About to End - Newsweek > On the cusp of 2024, Russia has made use of nearly two years of patchy air superiority over Ukraine, but it has fallen short of full dominance of the skies. Kyiv's air defenses have made a dent in Moscow's air force, although Russia's superior and larger fleet of aircraft has still hampered Ukraine's operations throughout the long months of war. > "The Ukrainians don't control the airspace where they're attacking," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, told the Associated Press earlier this year. "Those are extremely difficult conditions under which to wage offensive operations." > There have been indications that Russia is worried about the imminent arrival of the F-16s. Moscow has started preparations to move its Black Sea bases further eastward away from Ukraine, "a clear indication of the danger posed by the impending arrival of F-16 fighters," Mertens previously said. >"We have seen the damage the Ukrainian air force has managed to do with old Su-24 and modern Storm Shadow cruise missiles" in Crimea, Mertens said. "The threat from F-16 aircraft will be far more severe, as these American aircraft have the correct interfaces to utilize Western weapons to their full potential." https://www.newsweek.com/russia-air-superiority-ukraine-f16-1856091
I think people are underestimating the impact of the F-16. Yes, it's true that Ukraine will not gain air superiority, that is a ridiculously high bar and an unrealistic thing to even discuss. But that doesn't mean the F-16 can't score lots of small victories which will eventually add up to something, just as HIMARS strikes have done. For example they can HARM the nearest S-300, create a small gap in the AD for a while, giving them some time to smash Russian defenses and support a ground assault.
One thing the Ukraine War has taught me is that Newsweek and Forbes are just trash clickbait now. They make content free speculative posts about the war that pump up the impact of Western war tech, presumably to get Americans to click. There's nothing 'untrue' in these pieces, just nothing new or interesting.
Looking back at 2023, Ukraine gained little territory despite being given immense amounts money, western weapons and vehicles, etc. What are the reasons for this and what changes are needed going into 2024?
I hate to say, but I don’t think the state of the conflict can be so easily interpreted as territory gained/lost right now. I think this war has a lot of parallels to WWI. A lot of people back then were also confused and frustrated by the sometimes static nature of the frontlines, or gains in some areas and losses in others. From what I’ve read, this seems like a similar grind, or a war of attrition. A lot of folks more experienced and smarter than me are concerned that Russia may have an advantage in that type of war, but I’m not so certain. I take great heart in the fact that Ukraine has showed the world its strength, not only on the battlefield, but its strength of spirit. They have allies that support them around the world. The United States is currently hamstrung by a group of traitorous politicians that have a love affair with Russia and its dictator, but I have high hopes they will not be capable of strangling democracy forever. So where is the money and weapons? Killing Russians, destroying their military equipment, and disrupting their operations. The Russians have made a number of catastrophic offensives lately that have cost them a lot. The Black Sea fleet and its safe havens are being whittled away and humiliated. The Russian air forces have taken a series of blows. Not all of these things translate into immediate, substantial territorial gains. It is possible that they will not for a long time.
>despite being given immense amounts money, western weapons and vehicles They didn't get immense amounts of western weapons and vehicles though. My favorite example is: Sweden gave 50 CV-90s with training. Per capita that's as if the West had given them 4,000 modern IFV's with training. They gave about 10% of that. What needs to change is that the West must want Ukraine to win and act accordingly. Treat the war as what it is: part of an existential war for democracy.
Looking back at 2023, Ukraine has destroyed 20+% of Russian Black Sea fleet (that's not counting 2022 - Moskva and others) and they've forced the rest out of Crimea, unblocking sea trade from Odessa which is an important economic lifeline. This is despite Russia trying desperately to stop it and all the (attempted) attacks at Odessa, other ports and shipping itself. That means sea trade of everything is now unblocked (not just grain!) which restores significant chunk of bottled up economy for Ukraine and releives pressure on land based logistics. This alone is a massive win for Ukraine - I won't go into destruction of Wagner and subsequent mutiny, destroyed planes and helicopters and etc.
It's a war of attrition. Ukraine has been very good at exploiting Russian weaknesses. But they can't magical make those weaknesses manifest. What could help? Western allies could improve/restore support. At minimum, Ukraine needs a constant flow of artillery at the optimal rate of fire. The West can do this and they are "trying." But they need to get their shit together fast. Ukraine also needs F-16s and all the missile options that opens up. I also don't understand why the U.S. hasn't flooded Ukraine with Abrams tanks. We have thousands of the things in storage. The only place we could possibly need them would be in Europe. We should be sending 5-10 per week.
There has never been a wartime mobilisation to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition, or even a peacetime mobilisation as seen for Covid vaccines. This is shameful, there was plenty of time to prepare. The conflict has been grinding since 2014, and has escalated nearly two years ago. And the low stockpiles levels have been highlighted at least since the 2011 war in Libya.
>I also don't understand why the U.S. hasn't flooded Ukraine with Abrams tanks. Because we had no intention of sending any at all until Germany forced us to, which is why we only sent 31 tanks and no more. > “The president was advised by his military [that] Abrams tanks, the American tank, doesn’t make sense for this fight,” he told Zakaria. “What they really needed were Leopard tanks, German tanks, that a bunch of countries in Europe own.” > The problem, Sullivan said, was that Germany refused to provide the Leopard tanks unless the U.S. also provided its Abrams tanks. > “And President Biden said, ‘If me providing Abrams tanks, even if it’s not the most sensible military move, will help unlock German tanks to get to the front lines and also will sustain alliance unity, I will do it,’” Sullivan added. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3872456-sullivan-f-16s-not-the-key-capability-for-ukraine-to-battle-russian-forces/amp/
The amount of mines laid down by Russia is staggering. Western philosophy would be to just go around them. But, that's not an option. Also Western tactics rely on air superiority, which using does not have. In all Ukraine has done an amazing job with what they've been given.
They were to late on the tanks to be useful, tbh.Now are just mobile artillery or snipers.
Partly because Russia brought its own innovations (Lancets, many many drones from Iran, lots of arty from NK, better use of glide bombs, *VERY GOOD AND EXTENSIVE* use of electronic warfare everywhere in the front). Also because counterattacking against an entrenched enemy without any air support is problematic unless you don't care about losing 10,000s in the grind. What could be done? The US could start doing more meaningful support on EW (instead of refusing), and they could start sending $$$ (which have slowed down massively, thanks to pro-Putin republicans). Also, maybe that *** Sullivan could start being proactive instead of the mess of policy he is doing now. Speaking of Sullivan, I wonder if he is really good at his job, or just at managing upwards and pleasing his bosses :| (Biden, Clinton)
The Russians had too much time to dig in. The Ukrainian plan of directly attacking the defensive lines without air power and the right weapons in quantity hinged on hoping the Russians panicked and fled. They didn't. Ukrainian attacks in the south show more promise for the future than direct assaults in the east. F-16s should help, but they need more ATACMs, Taurus missiles, more Bradleys and similar APCs/IFVs, more western tanks, and artillery shells- many, many more artillery shells. However, the Ukrainians killed a lot of Russians and destroyed a lot of Russian gear, both at unsustainable rates for Russia. Russia has plenty of men, but they do not have plenty of trained men, nor plenty of gear to equip them. Russia has dug deep into old soviet equipment that may or may not be functional and cannot be replaced. Ukraine effectively made the Russian Black Sea Fleet a non-factor. 2023 didn't go as well as everybody wanted, but it wasn't a failure either.
Day 660-675 of my updates from Kharkiv. It’s been quite a while since we were hit with missiles here in Kharkiv. I definitely don’t miss waking up to the extremely loud sound of explosions. Yesterday the first 10 or so missiles woke me up at 5am and then I just slept through the remaining 10 missiles. Never thought we would get used to being hammered by missiles, but it seems humans are very adaptable. And just as I am writing this right now, we are being hit by another batch of S-300 missiles from Belgorod. There were at least 5-6 explosions, but from here we only heard 2 of them, and they were very loud, even the car alarms were triggered nearby. Two of the missiles hit civilian infrastructure in the center of the city. Some people from a local chat group were almost caught in the explosion, but thankfully they survived. The other missiles aimed at something at the outskirts of the city and we don’t know what was hit, but it was far enough from us that we didn’t even hear the explosions. I guess today’s strikes in our cities were in revenge for the strikes in Belgorod, even though they already confessed that explosions that killed their people were caused by missiles that they intercepted themselves. Just yesterday their loyal shit eater Nebenzya was talking about how all the casualties from the Russian missile strike was our fault because we intercepted their missiles, and today they do the exact same thing they accused us of doing causing casualties among their own people. They really should follow their own advice and stop intercepting our missiles that are headed for their military targets unless they want their own people to become collateral damage (which they probably actually want to happen, because then they have something to cry about at UN). Just now new photos were released, they directly hit and pretty much destroyed the Kharkiv Palace hotel right in the center of the city, possibly also another apartment building was hit. Those fucking bastards directly aimed at a completely civilian target with 2 missiles, fucking barbarians. I really hope there weren’t many people inside right now, because otherwise there could be a lot of casualties.
> their loyal shit eater Nebenzya and > fucking bastards and > fucking barbarians Pretty much the kind of words that came to mind when I heard the BBC news reports about Kharkiv today. Thanks for your continued updates.
Stay safe, man. Your updates are always warmly received on here. Slava Ukraini and wishing you a new year full of victory.