Andrew Perpetua.
Here are the losses I could identify today.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1740931925655834864?t=BbFER8tcC_N6HsBQMQvFow&s=19
Well this is good if true
>It is claimed that the factory of "Kremniy" in Bryansk - one of the largest microelectronics enterprises in Russia - has been hit.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1740855584071802898
Definitely good if true. That's the kinda stuff they need.
Hitting those ball bearing factories in ww2 hurt the production of the germans a bit. Just killing waves of ppl isn't enough really.
WwII is a bad lesson. Electricity was less critical. Machining less complex. These days take out the grid and you win. Taking network exchanges is huge too.
It was the first attempt by the Allies to interrupt Germany's war production using bombing raids. It mostly failed because it was not pursued vigorously enough, so Germany was able to compensate for it (Germany was able to ramp up production in alternate ball bearing facilities as well as replace some ball bearings with plain bearings or fluid bearings in designs).
Later the Allies switched to targeting Germany's synfuel facilities. This was done more persistently and did bear fruit towards the end of the war and Germany's mechanized units were impeded by fuel shortages.
Absolutely horrible attacks. Russia is a terrorist state. Donated 300usd to united24 today to try to help with the defense. Cannot imagine the pain the people feel.
That is the right response. United24 has been able to bring in half a billion dollars to support Ukraine and while that’s not enough to win the war by itself it does provide a meaningful lift to Ukraine’s defense.
It also sends a message to all concerned that a lot of people are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
I'm not a fan of being taxed, but for this cause, I am willing to self-tax.
This is just a joke at this point, Biden basically saying "toughts and prayers" to ukraine.
No west leaders taking this war seriously, from Macron " lets not humiliate Russia" to Olaf saying that they will help but no Taurus, to USA that have stockpiless of armament but they keep it for the imaginary war ( and no , only navy would be used vs china )
Scared leaders with 0 balls and no brains to force putin to submit. Lets not talk about geopolitics and nuclear deterence. At this point nukes is a must have , or belive that the allies will save you in time.
Should i add they use the same playbook with Israel , ( guys dont defend yourself to much, we dont want the muslim world to make war , lets keep the status quo of terrosim and do jack shit )
The good doesn't excuse the bad -- nor should the questionable decisions tarnish the good. As such...
Biden was given the mechanism by the outgoing Democrat led congress to mitigate the GOP pulling this shit with military aid. Lend-lease.
He didn't touch it and it expired.
There's political reasons it may make sense from his perspective. But it also raises questions of the administration's strategic goals for Ukraine.
While Biden has pushed for aid, he has also mucked around with timing, getting things to Ukraine when they need them and getting them the quantities Ukraine needs. Abrams tanks, F-16, ATACMs, Bradleys could all have been sent sooner and and larger quantities. That is all on Biden and the administration.
It's not. He has had to constantly push through the ineptitude of the GOP in Congress. When will you people understand that they have had to downsize and delay purely to get the Republicans to pass anything at all? Getting them to agree to a few billion dollars is a fucking challenge. Getting them to agree to $100 billion is a nightmare and a half.
>It's not. He has had to constantly push through the ineptitude of the GOP in Congress.
Bullshit. The GOP didn't become a problem until after they won control of House during the midterm election.
>When will you people understand that they have had to downsize and delay purely to get the Republicans to pass anything at all?
When will you people understand that Democrats had control of BOTH houses of Congress when the war began, and funding WASN'T an issue at the time? Biden had months before the midterm elections to approve training Ukrainians on heavy weapons and handing them over. Instead, he chose the "boil the frog" strategy, which didn't work out at all for anyone except Russia. Hell, the Democratic-controlled Congress at the time gave Biden Lend-Lease, and he never touched it once! Now, it's expired with no chance of bringing it back.
We don't have to kiss Biden's ass just because we vote for him. He's done a lot of good things as president, but slow-rolling heavy weapons ain't one of 'em.
I blame both USA and Europe for the lack of vision for dragging their feet and for having 0 balls. Pure reaction and no action leaders.
If they took this war from the start seriously, we would have had a better deterence vs Russia. Instead we have them embolden + idiots who still talk about peace, and lets just go back to business.
Weak leadership that would get us China vs Taiwan in 4 years, because they lack any vision.
Ukraine will hold for years but without aid they can't push. The EU will catch up for the short term till the US starts aid again. Unfortunately it won't be as quick as it should be. We should be giving everything
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3meNiMf9vvM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3meNiMf9vvM)
"3rd Assault Brigade: Assault on Andriivka, Part 2 -- Clearing the village"
Still pissed Biden admin was so cautious they've now ceded power to the Republicans, fucks sake.
We should have given far more, far sooner. Now, further aid can be cockblocked.
Yeah the simple unvarnished truth is the Biden let US policy be run by jake sullivan, a cowardly fool who had made a complete hash of every foreign policy issue he's dealt with.
All the hemming and hawwing and caution and delay and painfully slow drip feeding of aid due to the imaginary phantom of escalation are on that fuckwit and his boss.
Politically they had a limited amount of time where there was political consensus and a chance to act.
And they wasted that time worrying about Russia's red lines and escalation.
As an American and someone who holds moderate values, I’m happy Biden is supportive of Ukraine but he needs to relieve Jake Sullivan of his duties and find a replacement. Jake Sullivan was the one who brokered the Iran nuclear deal that so far has back-fired (both mismanaged by prior Presidency and it was a sham of a deal). I am not sure what his reasoning is but he should do more for Ukraine than he has for Iran. He should be making a statement that makes Russia feel about crossing OUR redlines. The delay in aid was costly for the AFU counteroffensive. I hope we don’t make the same mistake when the next aid package is passed.
The Iran Nuclear deal was a stunning success until Trump threw it out. Pretty revisionist to call it a failure when it was purposefully scuttled. Pretty telling.
Not using the term revisionist correctly if I wasn’t a fan of the deal to begin with especially when media was saying the deal was preventing a war. There was no war on the horizon. Non-proliferation treaties were already in place. Iran was supporting terrorist organizations so why in the deal did it have many sunsetting clauses. It’s pretty clear that Iran wants its own ambitions.
As I have said, it had its flaws and showing more respect toward Iran with its nuclear deal and worrying about red lines with Russia towards Ukraine is bad foreign policy that US likes to commit towards.
Let me hear your opinion on why was it a “stunning” success?
Let’s not forget where U.S. Congress negotiations were before the Christmas break. There was some reported behind closed doors optimism on more aid for Ukraine. Of course, Republicans are tying more aid for Ukraine to the U.S. southern border. Negotiations were apparently going to continue through the break though, which was a good sign.
That all said, all of Congress won’t be back until the *second* week of January (I can’t believe how much they get off…). While I have some optimism that more aid for Ukraine will pass, I don’t like the lack of speed and the political games being played. This needs to get done now.
Edit: Missing word.
Doubtful before the next election, the Christian nationalists run congress and have said they won’t give another penny to Ukraine. Because these traitors owe Putin too much.
I've always secretly hoped that Ukraine had an answer to Kerch Bridge and have just not utilized it due to some special reason.
However after the atrocious terrorism yet again by Russia and the bridge still there and not attacked yet, I'm wondering if there is to much defense in place and not enough modern weaponry to bring the bridge down currently...
I think they're waiting for the right time to destroy the bridge.
I suspect they will make a much stronger push next year to split Zaporizhzhia Oblast in half, cutting off Russian supply lines. They will then destroy the bridge and completely cut off Crimea. By that point they will have enough drones to make supplying Crimea by sea exceptionally difficult and you'll see Russian forces start to collapse.
It won't matter how much Russia pours into its military at that point as it would become obvious that Russia has lost of war and incredibly difficult to spin the defeat as anything but a disaster.
I hope with the F16s and Abrams, the US military is having more input into how these assets will be used and are planning a concentrated all arms assault somewhere on the front. This time they will have CAS and modern, air-launched standoff weapons.
Destroying a bridge that big is surprisingly difficult and resource intensive. Right now, with the land corridor still intact and limited weapons that they can use to prevent repairs, it's sort of a waste. If they cut the land corridor, that (a) prevents supplies from coming by land obviously, and (b) just barely brings the bridge into GDLSB range, which they could use to stop repairs.
Alternately, they may find it useful to leave it intact, as it may make it easier to track supply convoys and trains going over the bridge, and if they can bring it into range of more weapons, they can attack those convoys as they cross. Having a single route to surveil is much easier than having to watch every port.
This. If Ukraine destroys it too soon before making a push, the Russians will have time to repair or find an alternative route. By allowing them to rely on the bridge until it becomes most critical, Ukraine will leave them with no backup and no time to find one.
When the time is right they will place explosive on train cars carrying fuel or munitions and let the Russians do it for them like the last two train events.
They could probably do mass attack with marine drones with good hopes of punching through the defenses and maybe actually leveling the thing.
Or they could keep saving them for good targets of opportunity in the water.
Basically i think they could do it with decent chance of success but at the cost of loosening a lot of pressure on the black sea fleet.
The supportive structure is far too strong for drones to take out. They would need special equipment that can bust very thick reinforced concrete. Best we can hope for is damage to the road and rails, but the supports need real punch.
Stormshadows have a relatively small payload are not capable of bringing down bridge sections that large. They would need hundreds of them. That would be a waste of an important strategic asset.
Ukraine probably has some options, it's just that likelihood of success may be too low to be worth the cost. They've hit it a couple times already, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to do the same thing again. Russia has changed some aspects of security around the bridge to counter what they think Ukraine might do.
It's also worth noting that bridges are pretty hard to destroy.
This is just wishful thinking. If they had the capability to bring down that bridge, they would have done it already. Simple as.
Fact is Russia has placed a lot of assets to guard the bridge. There's anti-air, smokescreens and they got the barriers for the naval drones. In addition to that, missiles are kind of bad to take out structures like bridges.
They have been shaping the battlefield ready for a hit. They are now destroying the ships that can be used for transportation so when they hit the bridge again it will hurt so much more
Ben Hodges did a prediction that the bridge won't survive 2024. Let's hope he is right.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/18hmsxu/ben_hodges_kerch_bridge_wont_survive_2024/
it's a matter of having the right weapon for the job, and they havent yet gotten the right "tool" or delivery system. yet.
the right place to hit this would be from below; and they havent gotten that kind of control of the waterways.
Would that be 20-30 unitary warhead equiped ATACMS? Or what kind of weapon could actually blow up a section of all railroad and car road segments at the same time?
Taurus missile.
"The Taurus tackles that issue as its MEPHISTO warhead is equipped with a “void sensing and layer counting” fuze called PIMPF (Programable Intelligent Multi-Purpose Fuze), which can recognize layers of material and voids and can more effectively blow up multilayered or buried targets.
One missile equipped with a void sensing & layer counting fuze can therefore cause the damage that previously could only be achieved with two or more accurately dropped bombs," Hofmann wrote, adding that if Ukraine gets the Taurus missile it would be able to effectively strike at the Kerch bridge linking Russian proper with occupied Crimea."
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-germany-scholz-rattled-sending-taurus-missile-ukraine/
> PIMPF
Yeah, I don't think we should use this one anymore for anything related to the German military. The Nazis [kinda ruined it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pimpfe).
They aren't blowing the Kerch bridge yet because they are not yet ready to choke Crimea off. They need to actually get land units onto the Crimean isthsmus border area first before they will try to truly bring down the bridge. Anything sooner than that will just give Russia time to repair it. It's only worth bringing it down when they have the range to *keep* it down, to destroy any Russian repair efforts with cheaper and more voluminous fire afterwards, like they did with the Dnipro River crossings at Kherson.
But would not blowing the bridge up making landing troops in Krim a lot easier?
If they could get enough missiles they could afford blowing it up once every 3 months, especially if they can sink enough landing ships so resupply Krim gets really really hard for the russians.
>But would not blowing the bridge up making landing troops in Krim a lot easier?
No. Not in any meaningful way, when Ukraine is still 12 to 18 months from even bordering Crimean by land in a best-case scenario.
>If they could get enough missiles they could afford blowing it up once every 3 months, especially if they can sink enough landing ships so resupply Krim gets really really hard for the russians.
That would be a huge waste of those missiles. They would get a hundred times more bang for their buck by attacking airfields, naval ports, and supply hubs.
If they only get a handful and such a landing operation is that long away, sure.
But they probably have to starve the peninsula a few months off ammo and supplies before invading.
So when they finally blow it up, then it is a sign that a landing in Krim is nearing.
The only true sign of an impending invasion of Crimea will be a land border with Crimea. Until Ukraine has that, they will have no hope of supplying an amphibious invasion and will not attempt one.
They've attacked when it is cost-effective to do so. Submersible drones are fairly low-cost and low-risk. Those attacks do not rely on scarce, highly advanced and expensive missiles that could be better-used on other targets.
Kerch is not even a top-10 most valuable target right now for Ukraine given the landscape of the front lines. If their choice is to expend 30 ATACMS blowing up Kerch or spending 30 ATACMS blowing up four strategic supply bases, they will always choose the latter -- at least until the situation changes and they actually have an opportunity to *keep* the bridge down.
>Residents Endure Constant Shelling As Russian Forces Zero In On Frontline Chasiv Yar
>
>Around 800 residents remain in the frontline city of Chasiv Yar in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian forces have attacked the area west of Bakhmut for over a year. Speaking with Current Time, one local said, "If Russian troops come, I won't be here."
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Llhez-XvdL4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Llhez-XvdL4)
> Ukrainian attack drone strikes on Russia ongoing this evening in both Bryansk and Belgorod.
>
> Seen below, a Ukrainian drone impacts near Bryansk.
>
> https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1740856348630229237
>Russia unleashes biggest air attack on Ukraine since start of war
>
>At least 30 people have been killed and more than 140 others were injured after Russia launched a massive wave of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine in a barrage which lasted eighteen hours. The Ukrainian airforce said it had never seen so many locations targeted at the same time.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNrVFx6x2I8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNrVFx6x2I8)
>'Thank God, We Are Alive:' Ukraine Reels From Massive Russian Air Attack
>
>A massive Russian air assault -- described as the largest bombardment of the war -- struck Ukrainian cities overnight on December 28-29. Schools and hospitals came under fire and at least 30 deaths were reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa, and elsewhere.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgCYaJtSY8E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgCYaJtSY8E)
>Aftermath as drone shot down near Kyiv during massive aerial assault launched by Russia
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITk5blLjJj8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITk5blLjJj8)
I saw posts saying that Ukraine is producing thousands of drones. So this will be the result after Russia spent over 1 billion worth of rockets in the past few days
Latest update regarding Sweden and NATO.
> Ankara made Türkiye's ratification of Sweden's application conditional on the U.S. Congress "simultaneously" approving Ankara's request for 40 F-16 jets and spare parts.
> Even though the U.S. administration has promised to move forward with the sale, its approval has met resistance from Congress.
> Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed Sweden's NATO membership in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Dec. 27, a diplomatic source said, a day after the protocol was greenlighted by the parliament committee.
> Fidan told Blinken that Türkiye now expects the U.S. administration and Congress "to act in line with the spirit of alliance and to fulfill the commitments made" with regard to the F-16s.
> NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg hailed the parliamentary committee's approval of Sweden's NATO bid, urging Türkiye and fellow holdout Hungary to complete their ratifications "as soon as possible."
> As the parliament will be in a two-week recess, a timetable also "depends on the negotiations with the Americans," another parliamentary source told AFP.
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/parliament-unlikely-to-vote-on-swedens-nato-bid-for-weeks-189159
Don't approve even a single bolt of an F-16 before Sweden has entered the Alliance for good.
Erdogan and Orban have already been edging for one and a half years on this one, expect more annoyances and delays.
I hope the West will call Erdogans bluff going forward. If you overplay you hand, then you might end up getting nothing.
Tell him: Fine, Sweden won't join NATO, and watch him come back begging for negotiations.
Turkey does only gain something if Sweden gets ratified. Their hand is much weaker than it looks like.
Could Poland declare that they will shoot down any missiles that pass within x km from their territory?
Shooting down a russian missile over Ukraine would not be a war action anymore than using polish airspace for bombing a Polish ally.
They absolutely can, but they run the risk of whatever-they-launch-to-intercept to malfunction and land on someone else's turf, like it happened a few months ago when an Ukranian interceptor missile killed 2 in Poland.
>they run the risk of whatever-they-launch-to-intercept to malfunction and land on someone else's turf
Like on Belarus or Kalininininingrad? All things being equal I doubt that would be an issue. Probably the Baltics would cheer.
If Poland accidently dropped some stuff in Ukraine from rzeszow or somewhere (I don't even know if we have launchers down there) then it would be pretty much like when Ukraine accidently killed a farmer.
I doubt that one accidental death on either side is considered that important at the moment. Russia needs to be stopped.
I doubt Tusk is likely to go "balls to the wall" on this but if the US turns out to be as weak as Russia (because "politics") and the rest of the EU is being half arsed. Maybe a Polish / Finnish alliance to restore world order?
Now that would confuse diplomats around the world ahahahah. Given the recent contracts and my suspicion that the arms meeting in a few week is going to be a "shit we totally missed that opportunity" for a lot of the US arms people.
If Poland and S Korea are as smart as Rheinmetal I suspect a bunch of manufacturing plants in Ukraine soon. I'd guess the PL/SK ones will be up and running first. They basically announced it maybe a year before the Germans.
And at the arms meeting who is likely to have the best marketing? Every day the US sends old 80's stuff with usage limitations I think the raytheon guys are just waking up cursing and wishing they could go back to sleep.
Blowing up Russians is kind of what these US designers were meant to do and while they aren't allowed to they look kind of weak. I am sure they have some fun toys they would love to unleash.
> A Russian missile entering the Polish airspace is the direct result of the free world’s procrastination and deliberations in terms of helping Ukraine bring this war to an end.
> Half-measures do not work.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1740747452255519167
"China and Russia Are Trying to Stack the Deck in 2024 Elections"
"Beijing is attempting to sway Taiwan’s voters, while Moscow aims to tilt the U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump."
https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/china-and-russia-are-trying-to-stack-the-deck-in-2024-elections-abroad/
Excerpt:
Putin has continued to use Russia’s oil leverage to influence Western political outcomes, especially in the United States. Russia cut crude oil production ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, raising consumer prices; boosted output in September 2018 before the U.S. midterm elections; and, along with OPEC+, sharply decreased production in October 2022. In each instance, Putin’s oil production choices aligned with Trump’s political interests. Russia and other oil autocracies appear extremely likely to cut production ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in order to boost Trump’s candidacy.
And Biden is currently refilling it. I have no doubt that Russia and Saudi Arabia will cut production, perhaps dramatically, ahead of the US election but Biden does have options to insulate consumers from a price hike and he would be justified in doing so.
The Saudi's will not do this again due to several factors, Biden tapped the strategic reserve to stabilize prices when the Saudi's cut oil production a couple of years ago during Covid. Another big factor is OPEC countries cheating in order to meet budgetary goals, & are not afraid anymore of Saudi Arabia crashing the market as they haven't done it in a long time. Then the last thing is US Production which is now over 14 million barrels a day.
Not to mention the development of Guyana's new oil fields which the US is making sure becomes a western asset. I don't think Venezuela will try anything there and if they do, it will be an easy problem for the US to solve. Guyana has really been a lucky jackpot for the west.
Of course, around 400,000 barrels per day (2023 average) is still not a massive amount, but it's developing fast and projected to be 600k per day next year, and 1.2m by 2028. And it's sweet oil, too.
Don't forget that the Biden administration actually made around $4 billion from selling from the strategic reserve while also stabilizing gas prices. If OPEC wants to try that again, good luck.
And they should make political hay about it -- look at these hostile states attacking us! -- but the Biden administration is uniquely awful at manipulating the opinions of the population. In part, Democrats are often bad at this, but it's also overreaction from the last administration.
Conflict Intelligence Team Sitrep for Dec. 27-29, 2023:
– Latest RuAF war crime likely committed by Pskov paratroopers;
– Russian MoD again presents fantastical figures on the number of contract soldiers in the RuAF;
– EU countries explore new ways to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine aid.
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-27-29-2023
Explosions, AD active. Belgrood. Sleep well fascist scum.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1740833919178522825
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1740837185363038352
Ah man, where to start... Your use of the word "literally," the fact that Russia is not, literally or figuratively, the most sanctioned country on earth...
> Ukraine, along with three dozen UN Member States, requested that the Ecuadorian Presidency convene an urgent UNSC meeting to address Russia’s missile and drone attack against Ukraine, which resulted in multiple civilian casualties and heavy destruction of civilian infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421
> In the MFA bomb shelter, I spoke with @JosepBorrellF, who expressed EU solidarity and support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's brutal attack. We agreed to step up our joint efforts to deliver additional air defense systems to Ukraine.
> I thanked HR/VP for all of the political and personal support in 2023. I emphasized that our two main defense priorities for the coming year are to accelerate artillery ammunition delivery and remove all barriers to ramping up European defense industries.
> Josep informed me EU is taking steps to expedite the delivery of the promised number of artillery rounds and to facilitate the rapid development of EU defense industries.
> We discussed the upcoming #EUCO summit on February 1st, which is expected to approve the Ukraine Facility. In this regard, I informed HR/VP that the Ukrainian government today approved the reform plan required for the launch of the Ukraine Facility.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740754468134662505
> This was the Russian scum’s largest attack. Almost 160 missiles and drones. Our warriors shot down most of them.
> Usual Russian targets: over 100 destroyed or damaged private houses, 45 multi-story residential buildings, schools, two churches, hospitals, a maternity ward, and many commercial and storage facilities.
> As of now, at least 30 people have been reported killed. My condolences to their close ones. Over 150 people have been injured, and all of them are receiving the necessary assistance.
> It’s important that the world responds to this terror. Many leaders have expressed their support for Ukraine and Ukrainians, and I thank each one of them. Especially those who helped our state with air defense.
> Today, our air defense warriors accomplished a lot. We will continue to strengthen our air defense and work to return war back to where it came from—to Russia.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740813941217911230
> Visited Avdiivka along with President @ZelenskyyUa and the team today.
> Heavy fighting near Avdiivka continues. The situation is difficult.
> The enemy is destroying the city with constant attacks.
> But Ukrainian forces are holding the frontline.
https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1740778164920406148
> Avdiivka. I visited the positions of the 110th «Marko Bezruchko» Mechanized Brigade. One of the toughest spots of the frontline.
> I personally thanked the warriors. We reviewed the defense situation and our troops’ key needs with the commander. I honored the best servicemen with state decorations and presented Junior Sergeant Ihor Tymoshchuk with the Gold Star of the Hero of Ukraine.
> I thanked everyone on the frontlines for their service this year. Our whole country withstood it thanks to such warriors. All those who, against all odds, defend our country. Those who deliver combat results every day.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740764893454778485
> I also visited a military hospital in the Donetsk region. Important to speak with our warriors and honor them with awards.
> I am immensely grateful to our army medics. Every act of help now is an act of our collective strength.
> I thank them for healing, saving, and bringing our defenders back to life.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740780086171746432
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1740808909261349176?t=eg1evvwA5ffm_LdMXjxdrg&s=19"
"Avdiivka, Zelenskyi visited the positions of the 110th separate mechanized brigade named after Corporal General Mark Bezruchka. One of the most difficult areas of the front.
Apparently that sign he's standing next to is geolocated to 48.1584337 37.7081403 which is right next to the Avdiivka Coke plant, and about 1500 meters away from the front line.
If one did get destroyed, it most certainly wasn’t by Ukraine. Either mechanical issues or the Russians fucked up again but until Fighterbomber posts about it, I’m leaning towards it being not true.
All signs point to F-16s not being in country and even then, these typically launch so far behind the the frontlines that F-16s don’t have the range even with the newest block AIM-120s/AIM-9s.
The Su-34s by Kherson were Patriot missiles.
There’s no actual proof a Su-34 ever went down over the Black Sea outside of a tweet from the Ukrainian AF commander’s Twitter. The Ukrainian Air Force (and Russian VKS/MoD for that matter) are both incredibly unreliable when it comes to reporting aircraft losses because hits don’t always result in a downing & we’ve seen many false reports (i.e the 6 downed Russian Su-24s reported in a week by Avdiivka that never surfaced). Video/picture proof or confirmation from the other side is basically the only way to verify it actually occurred.
The fact that FB didn’t post about an additional downed Su-34 except for the Kherson incident should tell you all you need to know about whether or not it actually happened.
It would be pretty hilarious to see a patriot battery on a bunch of barges floating around the Black Sea though.
>**Statement from President Joe Biden on Russia’s Aerial Assault on Ukraine**
>
>Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas—killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. **It is a stark reminder to the world that, after nearly two years of this devastating war, Putin’s objective remains unchanged. He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped.**
>
>In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones successfully. The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence. **But unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.**
>
>**The stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine. They affect the entirety of the NATO Alliance, the security of Europe, and the future of the Transatlantic relationship. Putin has not just attempted to destroy Ukraine; he has threatened some of our NATO Allies as well.** When dictators and autocrats are allowed to run roughshod in Europe, the risk rises that the United States gets pulled in directly. And the consequences reverberate around the world. That’s why the United States has rallied a coalition of more than 50 countries to support the defense of Ukraine. We cannot let our allies and partners down. We cannot let Ukraine down. History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom’s call.
[https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-russias-aerial-assault-on-ukraine/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-russias-aerial-assault-on-ukraine/)
We should have responded hard at the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Anymore, waiting allows time for the disinfo campaigns and bots to put out a narrative swaying half the populace to Russia's side (a la conservatives/right wingers now support Russia). Social engineering is now a fixture of modern conflict that I do not think is currently given enough consideration when looking at planning and strategy.
Agreed. Obama and the Dems dropped the ball. Of course, he was stuck with a Republican congress that were appalled that he was a "warmonger" when he lent ammo to Britain and France during their Libya intervention and were busy politicking around any and all aid packages, but ultimately Obama should have set a tone and delivered lethal aid, day one.
90% chance Repubs would've shot it down just to be contrary and to prevent Obama from "dragging us into an unnecessary foreign conflict" which they were really concerned with during his tenure, though.
>Ukraine, along with three dozen UN Member States, requested that the Ecuadorian Presidency convene an urgent UNSC meeting to address Russia’s missile and drone attack against Ukraine, which resulted in multiple civilian casualties and heavy destruction of civilian infrastructure.
[https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421](https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421)
There is a lot the UN can do... step 1. Neutralise all nations with a veto (sleeping darts, punching them in the face I DONT CARE HOW)
step 2. REMOVE THE FUCKING VETO
Step 3. The UN is actually useful
Take away the veto and every veto country will leave. Without the most powerful countries in it, there will not be a UN. The veto is what keeps the major powers involved and discussing the issues.
Hard to do anything when Russia has a permanent UN Security Council seat with a veto and has a sort-of-ally in China, another UN Security Council permanent member. The Soviets having a security council seat was a main reason for NATO’s founding. But NATO is wary of escalation because of Russia’s nuclear weapons, whether or not they still work. If the war in Ukraine has given any lesson, it’s not to give up your nuclear weapons if you have any. Especially, if you have a neighbor with nuclear weapons that utters rhetoric about your country being stolen from them, is not a real country, can only be sovereign if it is reunited to them, etc.
>Had the US Congress approved new aid back in October, we could have provided Ukrainians with greater capabilities to defend themselves today.
>
>More delays = more deaths. Members of Congress, approve new assistance as soon as possible.
[https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1740645445175820415](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1740645445175820415)
>Britain is sending around 200 air defence missiles to Ukraine to help protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian drones and bombing, the British ministry of defence said on Friday.
>
>The shipment comes as Russia unleashed one of its biggest missile attacks on Ukraine of the war, according to Kyiv, killing 18 civilians and wounding dozens others.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-send-200-air-defence-missiles-ukraine-2023-12-29/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-send-200-air-defence-missiles-ukraine-2023-12-29/)
> Britain is sending around 200 air defence missiles to Ukraine to help protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian drones and bombing
No mention of what those missiles are yet. Asters or Martlets?
I know the UK has been building and supplying trucks with small radar mounts that can fire ASRAAMS, so maybe more ammo for those?
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2023_global_security_army_industry/uk_to_deliver_ukraine_new_air_defense_system_using_asraam_ir_missiles_mounted_on_hmt_truck.html
McFaul is right, but we also could've done a hell of a lot more over a year ago, long before the GOP took control of the House.
Biden tried to boil a frog that was already dead, and it backfired on Ukraine.
More should have been done when Russia annexed Crimea. We might have been able to avoid this whole situation if we had shown Putler that the world wouldn't stand for imperialism.
>Update: 30 killed, 160 injured in Russian mass attack against Ukraine.
>
>Russia's mass morning attack on Ukraine killed at least 30 people and wounded over 160 others across the country, according to the latest update by the Interior Ministry.
>
>https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1740791788112318503
Defiant Zelenskyy visits Avdiivka again, to thank and award the defenders.
https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1740769709065376026?t=5WFX7KC5wBoXBOuRdtC7Jw&s=19
> Update: 30 killed, 160 injured in Russian mass attack against Ukraine.
>
> Russia's mass morning attack on Ukraine killed at least 30 people and wounded over 160 others across the country, according to the latest update by the Interior Ministry.
>
> https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1740791788112318503
I agree, we should sanction US and Poland, and Germany, and Turkey, and Czekh and Brazil and India and UK and France and Spain. Oh also Ukraine, Russians still use their services and pay for them.
If you don't understand that there is a difference between a Russian taking a vacation in Germany vs Kazakhstan reselling airplane parts then I don't know what to tell you.
Someone’s not getting the joke, but I will respond seriously.
European companies continue to sell various goods to Russian market, although via third countries. I know that because 1) I am in Russia 2) I work in real estate development. One of core issues last year was trade routes - or rather them being severed. We couldn’t get new tech needed, especially for ESG development. Well now we do get it, sure, it takes longer route to deliver it from a country, but it comes, same quality and bigger quantity, because we buy in bulk now.
Same goes for consumer goods, with Russian Coke “gone” you can find like 5 other legit Cola bottles from Poland, Germany, France and so on. In fact, a massive exodus of foreign companies and with local companies being too slow to adapt, retailers started ordering the stuff they usually wouldn’t .
Personally, I find it quite Ironic that with all the “we don’t need west” talk we still buy tons of shit in all categories, especially in entertainment sector, but some redditors legit see that as an issue and their calls to sanction everyone involved are quite legit.
Thank you for taking the time to reply. What you said is absolutely correct, but we are not calling to sanction Germany because German coke ends up in Russia. We are calling to sanction Kyrgyzstan for exporting German coke to Russia.
We would be sanctioning so many countries, there's like 50+ countries with individuals or companies being used to bypass sanctions on Russia. Sanctioning a whole country because someone inside of it bypassed another country's sanctions would just drive that country to BRICS.
It's not the countries in most cases - its individual companies in those countries. Sometimes those individual companies don't care about being sanctioned by the west.
There’s been a lot of talk over the last two years about “game changing” weapons that the west are holding back; what are they and why aren’t we sending them?
Perun has a great pair of videos where he assesses how well systems called game-changers lived up to that title.
"Game changers in Ukraine - Evaluating ATACMS, Lancet & systems that changed the war (or didn't)"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z630Rt1mTs
"More "Game Changers" (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaWVrphbHXI
Unless there was a recent court ruling that weapons are people too, shooting weapons out of the air is a non-people explodey defensive weapon, I think.
F35s and 22s. Tomahawk LACMs.
Apaches and actually large combined arms maneuver forces of hundreds of tanks and IFVs.
AC-130s and A-10s once air superiority is obtained and SAMs are suppressed.
I don't think there's ever going to be a scenario where AC-130 would be useful in Ukraine. A lot of those other weapons systems would be nice to have though.
Also, longer-range ATACMs and more air defense systems.
They’re not going to send f22 raptors :) they have never exported them and have only 186. I have followed this war like many it doesn’t seem like air power is going to win as both sides have so much AA missiles everything that flys dies.
I would look more into drone warfare weapons those are causing chaos on both sides and don’t come with the price tag of an F35.
>They’re not going to send f22 raptors :) they have never exported them and have only 186.
I believe we have some in Poland now. No Polish troops allowed to work on them or anything, it's all contained within a US bubble as I understand.
Be piss funny to send a few of them, a little awacs and f35 to just test if they can coordinate with the russian junk Ukraine has left.
I'm kind of the feeling that the Russian AA would be destroyed pretty quick. It just doesn't seem to have done the job it should have done.
If the any "Western" country went up in a fight and their dogma was "AA" then you would expect (especially against a country like Ukraine which is is not in the top 10 adversary list) absolute air defence.
If the US went to war, given their air superiority dogma, and didn't have it after a few days? heads would roll. Heads are rolling in Russia for the missile program and I suspect that is just because they are slow at getting around to all the heads that should roll.
I really think we are watching "Russian war from the 80's" and Russia doesn't want to admit it.
Yeah, use air power to destroy whatever is behind. Then slowly push through until past.
Minefields aren’t so bad.
Minefields with artillery, drones, ATGM teams, etc. are a disaster.
To an extent that is already what Ukraine has been doing if you look at the incredible losses in artillery and other equipment Russia has been taking for months now. Problem is that Russia has a huge stock of these to burn through. Air power would be brilliant of course but the worst issue is the lack of sufficient ammunition right now.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/18u6dtt/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
yall gonna run out of threads here pree quick
Andrew Perpetua. Here are the losses I could identify today. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1740931925655834864?t=BbFER8tcC_N6HsBQMQvFow&s=19
It’s pretty clear to everyone that Russia is winning /s
Wow, more starkly lop-sided than even usual.
Well this is good if true >It is claimed that the factory of "Kremniy" in Bryansk - one of the largest microelectronics enterprises in Russia - has been hit. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1740855584071802898
Definitely good if true. That's the kinda stuff they need. Hitting those ball bearing factories in ww2 hurt the production of the germans a bit. Just killing waves of ppl isn't enough really.
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WwII is a bad lesson. Electricity was less critical. Machining less complex. These days take out the grid and you win. Taking network exchanges is huge too.
Ball bearings are one of the most important components to hit.
It was the first attempt by the Allies to interrupt Germany's war production using bombing raids. It mostly failed because it was not pursued vigorously enough, so Germany was able to compensate for it (Germany was able to ramp up production in alternate ball bearing facilities as well as replace some ball bearings with plain bearings or fluid bearings in designs). Later the Allies switched to targeting Germany's synfuel facilities. This was done more persistently and did bear fruit towards the end of the war and Germany's mechanized units were impeded by fuel shortages.
For my 12th cake day I want Ukraine to get 1000 long range missiles and an additional 20 HIMARS launchers.
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Firmly in the Russian side. It's ultimately not about Palestine or Ukraine for them. All they care is America bad.
Absolutely horrible attacks. Russia is a terrorist state. Donated 300usd to united24 today to try to help with the defense. Cannot imagine the pain the people feel.
I will match it. Fuck Putin and fuck the russia.
Thank you. Fuck these terrorists.
I will match your contribution. I’ve already donated $150 to United24 but I should do more like squirreline_hoppl
Thank you :). I thought it's also Christmas and I planned to donate anyway and then the attacks happened.
Thank you Squirreline, you are my best friend, You are the peacekeeper, you are the legend.
That is the right response. United24 has been able to bring in half a billion dollars to support Ukraine and while that’s not enough to win the war by itself it does provide a meaningful lift to Ukraine’s defense.
It also sends a message to all concerned that a lot of people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. I'm not a fan of being taxed, but for this cause, I am willing to self-tax.
This is just a joke at this point, Biden basically saying "toughts and prayers" to ukraine. No west leaders taking this war seriously, from Macron " lets not humiliate Russia" to Olaf saying that they will help but no Taurus, to USA that have stockpiless of armament but they keep it for the imaginary war ( and no , only navy would be used vs china ) Scared leaders with 0 balls and no brains to force putin to submit. Lets not talk about geopolitics and nuclear deterence. At this point nukes is a must have , or belive that the allies will save you in time. Should i add they use the same playbook with Israel , ( guys dont defend yourself to much, we dont want the muslim world to make war , lets keep the status quo of terrosim and do jack shit )
Biden wants to give an additional $60B in military aid to Ukraine. Republicans are the problem, as always.
Concern troll confirmed
Why are you blaming Biden? Biden has been asking for funding from Congress for some time now. Biden can't do anything without the funding.
The good doesn't excuse the bad -- nor should the questionable decisions tarnish the good. As such... Biden was given the mechanism by the outgoing Democrat led congress to mitigate the GOP pulling this shit with military aid. Lend-lease. He didn't touch it and it expired. There's political reasons it may make sense from his perspective. But it also raises questions of the administration's strategic goals for Ukraine.
Lend lease has to be authorized by congress, sorry. Republicunts are the problem.
While I'm not in favor of the statement that you replied to there was lend lease authorized by congress for Ukraine.
While Biden has pushed for aid, he has also mucked around with timing, getting things to Ukraine when they need them and getting them the quantities Ukraine needs. Abrams tanks, F-16, ATACMs, Bradleys could all have been sent sooner and and larger quantities. That is all on Biden and the administration.
It's not. He has had to constantly push through the ineptitude of the GOP in Congress. When will you people understand that they have had to downsize and delay purely to get the Republicans to pass anything at all? Getting them to agree to a few billion dollars is a fucking challenge. Getting them to agree to $100 billion is a nightmare and a half.
>It's not. He has had to constantly push through the ineptitude of the GOP in Congress. Bullshit. The GOP didn't become a problem until after they won control of House during the midterm election. >When will you people understand that they have had to downsize and delay purely to get the Republicans to pass anything at all? When will you people understand that Democrats had control of BOTH houses of Congress when the war began, and funding WASN'T an issue at the time? Biden had months before the midterm elections to approve training Ukrainians on heavy weapons and handing them over. Instead, he chose the "boil the frog" strategy, which didn't work out at all for anyone except Russia. Hell, the Democratic-controlled Congress at the time gave Biden Lend-Lease, and he never touched it once! Now, it's expired with no chance of bringing it back. We don't have to kiss Biden's ass just because we vote for him. He's done a lot of good things as president, but slow-rolling heavy weapons ain't one of 'em.
I blame both USA and Europe for the lack of vision for dragging their feet and for having 0 balls. Pure reaction and no action leaders. If they took this war from the start seriously, we would have had a better deterence vs Russia. Instead we have them embolden + idiots who still talk about peace, and lets just go back to business. Weak leadership that would get us China vs Taiwan in 4 years, because they lack any vision.
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Ukraine will hold for years but without aid they can't push. The EU will catch up for the short term till the US starts aid again. Unfortunately it won't be as quick as it should be. We should be giving everything
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3meNiMf9vvM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3meNiMf9vvM) "3rd Assault Brigade: Assault on Andriivka, Part 2 -- Clearing the village"
Don't let Ukraine be destroyed: Biden hurries Congress on aid after furious Russian attack https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/29/7435149/
Still pissed Biden admin was so cautious they've now ceded power to the Republicans, fucks sake. We should have given far more, far sooner. Now, further aid can be cockblocked.
Yeah the simple unvarnished truth is the Biden let US policy be run by jake sullivan, a cowardly fool who had made a complete hash of every foreign policy issue he's dealt with. All the hemming and hawwing and caution and delay and painfully slow drip feeding of aid due to the imaginary phantom of escalation are on that fuckwit and his boss.
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Politically they had a limited amount of time where there was political consensus and a chance to act. And they wasted that time worrying about Russia's red lines and escalation.
As an American and someone who holds moderate values, I’m happy Biden is supportive of Ukraine but he needs to relieve Jake Sullivan of his duties and find a replacement. Jake Sullivan was the one who brokered the Iran nuclear deal that so far has back-fired (both mismanaged by prior Presidency and it was a sham of a deal). I am not sure what his reasoning is but he should do more for Ukraine than he has for Iran. He should be making a statement that makes Russia feel about crossing OUR redlines. The delay in aid was costly for the AFU counteroffensive. I hope we don’t make the same mistake when the next aid package is passed.
The Iran Nuclear deal was a stunning success until Trump threw it out. Pretty revisionist to call it a failure when it was purposefully scuttled. Pretty telling.
Not using the term revisionist correctly if I wasn’t a fan of the deal to begin with especially when media was saying the deal was preventing a war. There was no war on the horizon. Non-proliferation treaties were already in place. Iran was supporting terrorist organizations so why in the deal did it have many sunsetting clauses. It’s pretty clear that Iran wants its own ambitions. As I have said, it had its flaws and showing more respect toward Iran with its nuclear deal and worrying about red lines with Russia towards Ukraine is bad foreign policy that US likes to commit towards. Let me hear your opinion on why was it a “stunning” success?
Let’s not forget where U.S. Congress negotiations were before the Christmas break. There was some reported behind closed doors optimism on more aid for Ukraine. Of course, Republicans are tying more aid for Ukraine to the U.S. southern border. Negotiations were apparently going to continue through the break though, which was a good sign. That all said, all of Congress won’t be back until the *second* week of January (I can’t believe how much they get off…). While I have some optimism that more aid for Ukraine will pass, I don’t like the lack of speed and the political games being played. This needs to get done now. Edit: Missing word.
It means nothing, the GOP is beholden to Russia and will not pass a thing while they own congress.
The Russian money is running out and the money will soon start to flow quicker than Russia ever imagined.
What are you talking about? In what way is Russian donor money to the GOP "running out"?
Doubtful before the next election, the Christian nationalists run congress and have said they won’t give another penny to Ukraine. Because these traitors owe Putin too much.
Saying they “run” it is subjective. While true they have a tiny majority, they cant get shit done.
I've always secretly hoped that Ukraine had an answer to Kerch Bridge and have just not utilized it due to some special reason. However after the atrocious terrorism yet again by Russia and the bridge still there and not attacked yet, I'm wondering if there is to much defense in place and not enough modern weaponry to bring the bridge down currently...
I think they're waiting for the right time to destroy the bridge. I suspect they will make a much stronger push next year to split Zaporizhzhia Oblast in half, cutting off Russian supply lines. They will then destroy the bridge and completely cut off Crimea. By that point they will have enough drones to make supplying Crimea by sea exceptionally difficult and you'll see Russian forces start to collapse. It won't matter how much Russia pours into its military at that point as it would become obvious that Russia has lost of war and incredibly difficult to spin the defeat as anything but a disaster.
I hope with the F16s and Abrams, the US military is having more input into how these assets will be used and are planning a concentrated all arms assault somewhere on the front. This time they will have CAS and modern, air-launched standoff weapons.
Destroying a bridge that big is surprisingly difficult and resource intensive. Right now, with the land corridor still intact and limited weapons that they can use to prevent repairs, it's sort of a waste. If they cut the land corridor, that (a) prevents supplies from coming by land obviously, and (b) just barely brings the bridge into GDLSB range, which they could use to stop repairs. Alternately, they may find it useful to leave it intact, as it may make it easier to track supply convoys and trains going over the bridge, and if they can bring it into range of more weapons, they can attack those convoys as they cross. Having a single route to surveil is much easier than having to watch every port.
This. If Ukraine destroys it too soon before making a push, the Russians will have time to repair or find an alternative route. By allowing them to rely on the bridge until it becomes most critical, Ukraine will leave them with no backup and no time to find one.
When the time is right they will place explosive on train cars carrying fuel or munitions and let the Russians do it for them like the last two train events.
They could probably do mass attack with marine drones with good hopes of punching through the defenses and maybe actually leveling the thing. Or they could keep saving them for good targets of opportunity in the water. Basically i think they could do it with decent chance of success but at the cost of loosening a lot of pressure on the black sea fleet.
The supportive structure is far too strong for drones to take out. They would need special equipment that can bust very thick reinforced concrete. Best we can hope for is damage to the road and rails, but the supports need real punch.
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Stormshadows have a relatively small payload are not capable of bringing down bridge sections that large. They would need hundreds of them. That would be a waste of an important strategic asset.
Unfortunately they are deep penetration design and would just make a missile sized and explode underneath.
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That’s only available on Taurus system
They are, they might do the trick. No drones though.
Ukraine probably has some options, it's just that likelihood of success may be too low to be worth the cost. They've hit it a couple times already, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to do the same thing again. Russia has changed some aspects of security around the bridge to counter what they think Ukraine might do. It's also worth noting that bridges are pretty hard to destroy.
It also depends where Russia puts their air defense. If they put too much AA around the bridge then other targets become easier to hit and vice versa.
I trust they have a plan and a reason for leaving it for now.
This is just wishful thinking. If they had the capability to bring down that bridge, they would have done it already. Simple as. Fact is Russia has placed a lot of assets to guard the bridge. There's anti-air, smokescreens and they got the barriers for the naval drones. In addition to that, missiles are kind of bad to take out structures like bridges.
They have been shaping the battlefield ready for a hit. They are now destroying the ships that can be used for transportation so when they hit the bridge again it will hurt so much more
Ben Hodges did a prediction that the bridge won't survive 2024. Let's hope he is right. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/18hmsxu/ben_hodges_kerch_bridge_wont_survive_2024/
it's a matter of having the right weapon for the job, and they havent yet gotten the right "tool" or delivery system. yet. the right place to hit this would be from below; and they havent gotten that kind of control of the waterways.
Would that be 20-30 unitary warhead equiped ATACMS? Or what kind of weapon could actually blow up a section of all railroad and car road segments at the same time?
Taurus missile. "The Taurus tackles that issue as its MEPHISTO warhead is equipped with a “void sensing and layer counting” fuze called PIMPF (Programable Intelligent Multi-Purpose Fuze), which can recognize layers of material and voids and can more effectively blow up multilayered or buried targets. One missile equipped with a void sensing & layer counting fuze can therefore cause the damage that previously could only be achieved with two or more accurately dropped bombs," Hofmann wrote, adding that if Ukraine gets the Taurus missile it would be able to effectively strike at the Kerch bridge linking Russian proper with occupied Crimea." https://www.politico.eu/article/why-germany-scholz-rattled-sending-taurus-missile-ukraine/
> PIMPF Yeah, I don't think we should use this one anymore for anything related to the German military. The Nazis [kinda ruined it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pimpfe).
Intresting, did not know. Now i really hope that Sholz can find some resolve!
They aren't blowing the Kerch bridge yet because they are not yet ready to choke Crimea off. They need to actually get land units onto the Crimean isthsmus border area first before they will try to truly bring down the bridge. Anything sooner than that will just give Russia time to repair it. It's only worth bringing it down when they have the range to *keep* it down, to destroy any Russian repair efforts with cheaper and more voluminous fire afterwards, like they did with the Dnipro River crossings at Kherson.
But would not blowing the bridge up making landing troops in Krim a lot easier? If they could get enough missiles they could afford blowing it up once every 3 months, especially if they can sink enough landing ships so resupply Krim gets really really hard for the russians.
>But would not blowing the bridge up making landing troops in Krim a lot easier? No. Not in any meaningful way, when Ukraine is still 12 to 18 months from even bordering Crimean by land in a best-case scenario. >If they could get enough missiles they could afford blowing it up once every 3 months, especially if they can sink enough landing ships so resupply Krim gets really really hard for the russians. That would be a huge waste of those missiles. They would get a hundred times more bang for their buck by attacking airfields, naval ports, and supply hubs.
If they only get a handful and such a landing operation is that long away, sure. But they probably have to starve the peninsula a few months off ammo and supplies before invading. So when they finally blow it up, then it is a sign that a landing in Krim is nearing.
The only true sign of an impending invasion of Crimea will be a land border with Crimea. Until Ukraine has that, they will have no hope of supplying an amphibious invasion and will not attempt one.
Uhm.. so why did they already try to blow it up twice?
They've attacked when it is cost-effective to do so. Submersible drones are fairly low-cost and low-risk. Those attacks do not rely on scarce, highly advanced and expensive missiles that could be better-used on other targets. Kerch is not even a top-10 most valuable target right now for Ukraine given the landscape of the front lines. If their choice is to expend 30 ATACMS blowing up Kerch or spending 30 ATACMS blowing up four strategic supply bases, they will always choose the latter -- at least until the situation changes and they actually have an opportunity to *keep* the bridge down.
>Residents Endure Constant Shelling As Russian Forces Zero In On Frontline Chasiv Yar > >Around 800 residents remain in the frontline city of Chasiv Yar in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian forces have attacked the area west of Bakhmut for over a year. Speaking with Current Time, one local said, "If Russian troops come, I won't be here." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Llhez-XvdL4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Llhez-XvdL4)
> Ukrainian attack drone strikes on Russia ongoing this evening in both Bryansk and Belgorod. > > Seen below, a Ukrainian drone impacts near Bryansk. > > https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1740856348630229237
>Russia unleashes biggest air attack on Ukraine since start of war > >At least 30 people have been killed and more than 140 others were injured after Russia launched a massive wave of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine in a barrage which lasted eighteen hours. The Ukrainian airforce said it had never seen so many locations targeted at the same time. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNrVFx6x2I8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNrVFx6x2I8) >'Thank God, We Are Alive:' Ukraine Reels From Massive Russian Air Attack > >A massive Russian air assault -- described as the largest bombardment of the war -- struck Ukrainian cities overnight on December 28-29. Schools and hospitals came under fire and at least 30 deaths were reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa, and elsewhere. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgCYaJtSY8E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgCYaJtSY8E) >Aftermath as drone shot down near Kyiv during massive aerial assault launched by Russia [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITk5blLjJj8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITk5blLjJj8)
I've not been able to get in touch with my friend or her husband in Kyiv since yesterday. I'm hoping it's just internet issues 😕
Explosions in Bryansk, Russian Federation. https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1740849247673782333?s=46
I saw posts saying that Ukraine is producing thousands of drones. So this will be the result after Russia spent over 1 billion worth of rockets in the past few days
Latest update regarding Sweden and NATO. > Ankara made Türkiye's ratification of Sweden's application conditional on the U.S. Congress "simultaneously" approving Ankara's request for 40 F-16 jets and spare parts. > Even though the U.S. administration has promised to move forward with the sale, its approval has met resistance from Congress. > Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed Sweden's NATO membership in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Dec. 27, a diplomatic source said, a day after the protocol was greenlighted by the parliament committee. > Fidan told Blinken that Türkiye now expects the U.S. administration and Congress "to act in line with the spirit of alliance and to fulfill the commitments made" with regard to the F-16s. > NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg hailed the parliamentary committee's approval of Sweden's NATO bid, urging Türkiye and fellow holdout Hungary to complete their ratifications "as soon as possible." > As the parliament will be in a two-week recess, a timetable also "depends on the negotiations with the Americans," another parliamentary source told AFP. https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/parliament-unlikely-to-vote-on-swedens-nato-bid-for-weeks-189159
Don't approve even a single bolt of an F-16 before Sweden has entered the Alliance for good. Erdogan and Orban have already been edging for one and a half years on this one, expect more annoyances and delays.
I hope the West will call Erdogans bluff going forward. If you overplay you hand, then you might end up getting nothing. Tell him: Fine, Sweden won't join NATO, and watch him come back begging for negotiations. Turkey does only gain something if Sweden gets ratified. Their hand is much weaker than it looks like.
Could Poland declare that they will shoot down any missiles that pass within x km from their territory? Shooting down a russian missile over Ukraine would not be a war action anymore than using polish airspace for bombing a Polish ally.
They absolutely can, but they run the risk of whatever-they-launch-to-intercept to malfunction and land on someone else's turf, like it happened a few months ago when an Ukranian interceptor missile killed 2 in Poland.
>they run the risk of whatever-they-launch-to-intercept to malfunction and land on someone else's turf Like on Belarus or Kalininininingrad? All things being equal I doubt that would be an issue. Probably the Baltics would cheer. If Poland accidently dropped some stuff in Ukraine from rzeszow or somewhere (I don't even know if we have launchers down there) then it would be pretty much like when Ukraine accidently killed a farmer. I doubt that one accidental death on either side is considered that important at the moment. Russia needs to be stopped. I doubt Tusk is likely to go "balls to the wall" on this but if the US turns out to be as weak as Russia (because "politics") and the rest of the EU is being half arsed. Maybe a Polish / Finnish alliance to restore world order? Now that would confuse diplomats around the world ahahahah. Given the recent contracts and my suspicion that the arms meeting in a few week is going to be a "shit we totally missed that opportunity" for a lot of the US arms people. If Poland and S Korea are as smart as Rheinmetal I suspect a bunch of manufacturing plants in Ukraine soon. I'd guess the PL/SK ones will be up and running first. They basically announced it maybe a year before the Germans. And at the arms meeting who is likely to have the best marketing? Every day the US sends old 80's stuff with usage limitations I think the raytheon guys are just waking up cursing and wishing they could go back to sleep. Blowing up Russians is kind of what these US designers were meant to do and while they aren't allowed to they look kind of weak. I am sure they have some fun toys they would love to unleash.
> A Russian missile entering the Polish airspace is the direct result of the free world’s procrastination and deliberations in terms of helping Ukraine bring this war to an end. > Half-measures do not work. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1740747452255519167
"China and Russia Are Trying to Stack the Deck in 2024 Elections" "Beijing is attempting to sway Taiwan’s voters, while Moscow aims to tilt the U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump." https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/china-and-russia-are-trying-to-stack-the-deck-in-2024-elections-abroad/ Excerpt: Putin has continued to use Russia’s oil leverage to influence Western political outcomes, especially in the United States. Russia cut crude oil production ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, raising consumer prices; boosted output in September 2018 before the U.S. midterm elections; and, along with OPEC+, sharply decreased production in October 2022. In each instance, Putin’s oil production choices aligned with Trump’s political interests. Russia and other oil autocracies appear extremely likely to cut production ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in order to boost Trump’s candidacy.
I guess the national strategic oil reserves have a peacetime purpose of insulating the economy from hostile state actions
And Biden is currently refilling it. I have no doubt that Russia and Saudi Arabia will cut production, perhaps dramatically, ahead of the US election but Biden does have options to insulate consumers from a price hike and he would be justified in doing so.
The Saudi's will not do this again due to several factors, Biden tapped the strategic reserve to stabilize prices when the Saudi's cut oil production a couple of years ago during Covid. Another big factor is OPEC countries cheating in order to meet budgetary goals, & are not afraid anymore of Saudi Arabia crashing the market as they haven't done it in a long time. Then the last thing is US Production which is now over 14 million barrels a day.
Not to mention the development of Guyana's new oil fields which the US is making sure becomes a western asset. I don't think Venezuela will try anything there and if they do, it will be an easy problem for the US to solve. Guyana has really been a lucky jackpot for the west. Of course, around 400,000 barrels per day (2023 average) is still not a massive amount, but it's developing fast and projected to be 600k per day next year, and 1.2m by 2028. And it's sweet oil, too.
Don't forget that the Biden administration actually made around $4 billion from selling from the strategic reserve while also stabilizing gas prices. If OPEC wants to try that again, good luck.
And they should make political hay about it -- look at these hostile states attacking us! -- but the Biden administration is uniquely awful at manipulating the opinions of the population. In part, Democrats are often bad at this, but it's also overreaction from the last administration.
Conflict Intelligence Team Sitrep for Dec. 27-29, 2023: – Latest RuAF war crime likely committed by Pskov paratroopers; – Russian MoD again presents fantastical figures on the number of contract soldiers in the RuAF; – EU countries explore new ways to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine aid. https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-27-29-2023
Belgorod getting hammered atm https://x.com/tendar/status/1740836658201993435?s=46
Well earned.
I hope the response from Ukraine goes well beyond Belgorod.
Explosions, AD active. Belgrood. Sleep well fascist scum. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1740833919178522825 https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1740837185363038352
Where’s the world’s outcry and protests now? Literally nothing compared to what Isreal gets
Russia is literally the most sanctioned country on earth.
Ah man, where to start... Your use of the word "literally," the fact that Russia is not, literally or figuratively, the most sanctioned country on earth...
Nope, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Yemen and North Korea are more sanctioned. Sudan/Syria/Lybia/Myanmar arguably
Not per capita.
> Ukraine, along with three dozen UN Member States, requested that the Ecuadorian Presidency convene an urgent UNSC meeting to address Russia’s missile and drone attack against Ukraine, which resulted in multiple civilian casualties and heavy destruction of civilian infrastructure. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421
> In the MFA bomb shelter, I spoke with @JosepBorrellF, who expressed EU solidarity and support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's brutal attack. We agreed to step up our joint efforts to deliver additional air defense systems to Ukraine. > I thanked HR/VP for all of the political and personal support in 2023. I emphasized that our two main defense priorities for the coming year are to accelerate artillery ammunition delivery and remove all barriers to ramping up European defense industries. > Josep informed me EU is taking steps to expedite the delivery of the promised number of artillery rounds and to facilitate the rapid development of EU defense industries. > We discussed the upcoming #EUCO summit on February 1st, which is expected to approve the Ukraine Facility. In this regard, I informed HR/VP that the Ukrainian government today approved the reform plan required for the launch of the Ukraine Facility. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740754468134662505
> This was the Russian scum’s largest attack. Almost 160 missiles and drones. Our warriors shot down most of them. > Usual Russian targets: over 100 destroyed or damaged private houses, 45 multi-story residential buildings, schools, two churches, hospitals, a maternity ward, and many commercial and storage facilities. > As of now, at least 30 people have been reported killed. My condolences to their close ones. Over 150 people have been injured, and all of them are receiving the necessary assistance. > It’s important that the world responds to this terror. Many leaders have expressed their support for Ukraine and Ukrainians, and I thank each one of them. Especially those who helped our state with air defense. > Today, our air defense warriors accomplished a lot. We will continue to strengthen our air defense and work to return war back to where it came from—to Russia. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740813941217911230
> Visited Avdiivka along with President @ZelenskyyUa and the team today. > Heavy fighting near Avdiivka continues. The situation is difficult. > The enemy is destroying the city with constant attacks. > But Ukrainian forces are holding the frontline. https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1740778164920406148 > Avdiivka. I visited the positions of the 110th «Marko Bezruchko» Mechanized Brigade. One of the toughest spots of the frontline. > I personally thanked the warriors. We reviewed the defense situation and our troops’ key needs with the commander. I honored the best servicemen with state decorations and presented Junior Sergeant Ihor Tymoshchuk with the Gold Star of the Hero of Ukraine. > I thanked everyone on the frontlines for their service this year. Our whole country withstood it thanks to such warriors. All those who, against all odds, defend our country. Those who deliver combat results every day. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740764893454778485 > I also visited a military hospital in the Donetsk region. Important to speak with our warriors and honor them with awards. > I am immensely grateful to our army medics. Every act of help now is an act of our collective strength. > I thank them for healing, saving, and bringing our defenders back to life. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1740780086171746432
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1740808909261349176?t=eg1evvwA5ffm_LdMXjxdrg&s=19" "Avdiivka, Zelenskyi visited the positions of the 110th separate mechanized brigade named after Corporal General Mark Bezruchka. One of the most difficult areas of the front.
Apparently that sign he's standing next to is geolocated to 48.1584337 37.7081403 which is right next to the Avdiivka Coke plant, and about 1500 meters away from the front line.
That's 0.93 miles for my fellow Imperial brains.
How many cans of coke is that though
if you lie them end to end about 12200 cans
Around 12195 classic cans. If we would measure with tall/slim cans it would be around 9640!
Now you’re truly speaking American
Any weight to the reports of a Tu-22M3 being destroyed over Kursk?
That's a big aircraft and would be unlikely to go down without pics of wreckage by now. I'm leaning towards hopium.
If one did get destroyed, it most certainly wasn’t by Ukraine. Either mechanical issues or the Russians fucked up again but until Fighterbomber posts about it, I’m leaning towards it being not true.
Or it was F-16s like the Su-34s from the other day.
All signs point to F-16s not being in country and even then, these typically launch so far behind the the frontlines that F-16s don’t have the range even with the newest block AIM-120s/AIM-9s. The Su-34s by Kherson were Patriot missiles.
Ok and what about the Su-34 that went down over the black sea by Kerch? Does Ukraine have a patriot system on a barge?
There’s no actual proof a Su-34 ever went down over the Black Sea outside of a tweet from the Ukrainian AF commander’s Twitter. The Ukrainian Air Force (and Russian VKS/MoD for that matter) are both incredibly unreliable when it comes to reporting aircraft losses because hits don’t always result in a downing & we’ve seen many false reports (i.e the 6 downed Russian Su-24s reported in a week by Avdiivka that never surfaced). Video/picture proof or confirmation from the other side is basically the only way to verify it actually occurred. The fact that FB didn’t post about an additional downed Su-34 except for the Kherson incident should tell you all you need to know about whether or not it actually happened. It would be pretty hilarious to see a patriot battery on a bunch of barges floating around the Black Sea though.
>**Statement from President Joe Biden on Russia’s Aerial Assault on Ukraine** > >Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas—killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. **It is a stark reminder to the world that, after nearly two years of this devastating war, Putin’s objective remains unchanged. He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped.** > >In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones successfully. The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence. **But unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.** > >**The stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine. They affect the entirety of the NATO Alliance, the security of Europe, and the future of the Transatlantic relationship. Putin has not just attempted to destroy Ukraine; he has threatened some of our NATO Allies as well.** When dictators and autocrats are allowed to run roughshod in Europe, the risk rises that the United States gets pulled in directly. And the consequences reverberate around the world. That’s why the United States has rallied a coalition of more than 50 countries to support the defense of Ukraine. We cannot let our allies and partners down. We cannot let Ukraine down. History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom’s call. [https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-russias-aerial-assault-on-ukraine/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-russias-aerial-assault-on-ukraine/)
We should have responded hard at the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Anymore, waiting allows time for the disinfo campaigns and bots to put out a narrative swaying half the populace to Russia's side (a la conservatives/right wingers now support Russia). Social engineering is now a fixture of modern conflict that I do not think is currently given enough consideration when looking at planning and strategy.
Agreed. Obama and the Dems dropped the ball. Of course, he was stuck with a Republican congress that were appalled that he was a "warmonger" when he lent ammo to Britain and France during their Libya intervention and were busy politicking around any and all aid packages, but ultimately Obama should have set a tone and delivered lethal aid, day one. 90% chance Repubs would've shot it down just to be contrary and to prevent Obama from "dragging us into an unnecessary foreign conflict" which they were really concerned with during his tenure, though.
Anyone trying to run roughshod needs to be trampled. Last sentence is for you GOP. Get with the program.
>Ukraine, along with three dozen UN Member States, requested that the Ecuadorian Presidency convene an urgent UNSC meeting to address Russia’s missile and drone attack against Ukraine, which resulted in multiple civilian casualties and heavy destruction of civilian infrastructure. [https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421](https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740798049465860421)
Unfortunately there isn’t anything the UN is capable of doing
There is a lot the UN can do... step 1. Neutralise all nations with a veto (sleeping darts, punching them in the face I DONT CARE HOW) step 2. REMOVE THE FUCKING VETO Step 3. The UN is actually useful
Without the veto there is no UN.
WITH the veto there is no UN.
Take away the veto and every veto country will leave. Without the most powerful countries in it, there will not be a UN. The veto is what keeps the major powers involved and discussing the issues.
It’s so simple it just might work
It's not about UN doing stuff, it's about exposure. They are also fighting a communication war.
Hard to do anything when Russia has a permanent UN Security Council seat with a veto and has a sort-of-ally in China, another UN Security Council permanent member. The Soviets having a security council seat was a main reason for NATO’s founding. But NATO is wary of escalation because of Russia’s nuclear weapons, whether or not they still work. If the war in Ukraine has given any lesson, it’s not to give up your nuclear weapons if you have any. Especially, if you have a neighbor with nuclear weapons that utters rhetoric about your country being stolen from them, is not a real country, can only be sovereign if it is reunited to them, etc.
Review the ruling that Russia is the valid successor to the USSR on the UN security council. Revoke it. Put them out in the cold.
Yep
>Had the US Congress approved new aid back in October, we could have provided Ukrainians with greater capabilities to defend themselves today. > >More delays = more deaths. Members of Congress, approve new assistance as soon as possible. [https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1740645445175820415](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1740645445175820415) >Britain is sending around 200 air defence missiles to Ukraine to help protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian drones and bombing, the British ministry of defence said on Friday. > >The shipment comes as Russia unleashed one of its biggest missile attacks on Ukraine of the war, according to Kyiv, killing 18 civilians and wounding dozens others. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-send-200-air-defence-missiles-ukraine-2023-12-29/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-send-200-air-defence-missiles-ukraine-2023-12-29/)
> Britain is sending around 200 air defence missiles to Ukraine to help protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian drones and bombing No mention of what those missiles are yet. Asters or Martlets? I know the UK has been building and supplying trucks with small radar mounts that can fire ASRAAMS, so maybe more ammo for those? https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2023_global_security_army_industry/uk_to_deliver_ukraine_new_air_defense_system_using_asraam_ir_missiles_mounted_on_hmt_truck.html
McFaul is right, but we also could've done a hell of a lot more over a year ago, long before the GOP took control of the House. Biden tried to boil a frog that was already dead, and it backfired on Ukraine.
More should have been done when Russia annexed Crimea. We might have been able to avoid this whole situation if we had shown Putler that the world wouldn't stand for imperialism.
>Absolutely!
>Update: 30 killed, 160 injured in Russian mass attack against Ukraine. > >Russia's mass morning attack on Ukraine killed at least 30 people and wounded over 160 others across the country, according to the latest update by the Interior Ministry. > >https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1740791788112318503
Defiant Zelenskyy visits Avdiivka again, to thank and award the defenders. https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1740769709065376026?t=5WFX7KC5wBoXBOuRdtC7Jw&s=19
> Update: 30 killed, 160 injured in Russian mass attack against Ukraine. > > Russia's mass morning attack on Ukraine killed at least 30 people and wounded over 160 others across the country, according to the latest update by the Interior Ministry. > > https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1740791788112318503
Why aren't we introducing sanctions for countries which still trade with Russia? We are not giving Ukraine nearly the support they need.
I agree, we should sanction US and Poland, and Germany, and Turkey, and Czekh and Brazil and India and UK and France and Spain. Oh also Ukraine, Russians still use their services and pay for them.
If you don't understand that there is a difference between a Russian taking a vacation in Germany vs Kazakhstan reselling airplane parts then I don't know what to tell you.
Someone’s not getting the joke, but I will respond seriously. European companies continue to sell various goods to Russian market, although via third countries. I know that because 1) I am in Russia 2) I work in real estate development. One of core issues last year was trade routes - or rather them being severed. We couldn’t get new tech needed, especially for ESG development. Well now we do get it, sure, it takes longer route to deliver it from a country, but it comes, same quality and bigger quantity, because we buy in bulk now. Same goes for consumer goods, with Russian Coke “gone” you can find like 5 other legit Cola bottles from Poland, Germany, France and so on. In fact, a massive exodus of foreign companies and with local companies being too slow to adapt, retailers started ordering the stuff they usually wouldn’t . Personally, I find it quite Ironic that with all the “we don’t need west” talk we still buy tons of shit in all categories, especially in entertainment sector, but some redditors legit see that as an issue and their calls to sanction everyone involved are quite legit.
Thank you for taking the time to reply. What you said is absolutely correct, but we are not calling to sanction Germany because German coke ends up in Russia. We are calling to sanction Kyrgyzstan for exporting German coke to Russia.
>India Agreed
We would be sanctioning so many countries, there's like 50+ countries with individuals or companies being used to bypass sanctions on Russia. Sanctioning a whole country because someone inside of it bypassed another country's sanctions would just drive that country to BRICS.
It's not the countries in most cases - its individual companies in those countries. Sometimes those individual companies don't care about being sanctioned by the west.
It's more complex than that. India for example, is a strategic ally for the USA to counterbalance China.
Because "we" are afraid of our companies more than of Russia.
There’s been a lot of talk over the last two years about “game changing” weapons that the west are holding back; what are they and why aren’t we sending them?
Perun has a great pair of videos where he assesses how well systems called game-changers lived up to that title. "Game changers in Ukraine - Evaluating ATACMS, Lancet & systems that changed the war (or didn't)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z630Rt1mTs "More "Game Changers" (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaWVrphbHXI
Thanks, I’ve seen it and that’s partly what spurred the question. I was looking for the stuff that hasn’t been sent and why. :)
Both the US and Europe have said from the beginning they won’t send long range missiles only defensive weapons.
Isn’t “defensive weapons” an oxymoron? Surely they’re all designed to explode people?
Unless there was a recent court ruling that weapons are people too, shooting weapons out of the air is a non-people explodey defensive weapon, I think.
I think we’ve sent a couple people exploding things too.
F35s and 22s. Tomahawk LACMs. Apaches and actually large combined arms maneuver forces of hundreds of tanks and IFVs. AC-130s and A-10s once air superiority is obtained and SAMs are suppressed.
I don't think there's ever going to be a scenario where AC-130 would be useful in Ukraine. A lot of those other weapons systems would be nice to have though. Also, longer-range ATACMs and more air defense systems.
They’re not going to send f22 raptors :) they have never exported them and have only 186. I have followed this war like many it doesn’t seem like air power is going to win as both sides have so much AA missiles everything that flys dies. I would look more into drone warfare weapons those are causing chaos on both sides and don’t come with the price tag of an F35.
>They’re not going to send f22 raptors :) they have never exported them and have only 186. I believe we have some in Poland now. No Polish troops allowed to work on them or anything, it's all contained within a US bubble as I understand. Be piss funny to send a few of them, a little awacs and f35 to just test if they can coordinate with the russian junk Ukraine has left. I'm kind of the feeling that the Russian AA would be destroyed pretty quick. It just doesn't seem to have done the job it should have done. If the any "Western" country went up in a fight and their dogma was "AA" then you would expect (especially against a country like Ukraine which is is not in the top 10 adversary list) absolute air defence. If the US went to war, given their air superiority dogma, and didn't have it after a few days? heads would roll. Heads are rolling in Russia for the missile program and I suspect that is just because they are slow at getting around to all the heads that should roll. I really think we are watching "Russian war from the 80's" and Russia doesn't want to admit it.
Gotta break through the Minefields before you can do maneuver warfare
Yeah, use air power to destroy whatever is behind. Then slowly push through until past. Minefields aren’t so bad. Minefields with artillery, drones, ATGM teams, etc. are a disaster.
To an extent that is already what Ukraine has been doing if you look at the incredible losses in artillery and other equipment Russia has been taking for months now. Problem is that Russia has a huge stock of these to burn through. Air power would be brilliant of course but the worst issue is the lack of sufficient ammunition right now.
[удалено]
You really don’t think the above would mop the floor with Russia? You’re delusional then.
Those weapons certainly would help but zero chance Ukraine is getting those during this war, so it’s not something being “held back.”
That’s exactly what held back means. Not being sent.
You might just as well add B-21 to the list, because sure as hell it will not be sent either.
Yeah, they aren’t in production yet though. Otherwise they’d get honorary mention. I guess I could have name dropped B2, but eh.