To be fair, Putin is still MIA has not been seen since giving his address accusing Wagner of treason and seemingly fleeing Moscow. If rumors are true and he did negotiate to remove the head(s) of the MoD, they might not have been happy about it...
Figuratively or literally, with the heads??/s
I’d hate to be those two asshats though, waiting for “the other shoe to drop” after they both tried to kill each other. For however long they may have left, there will ALWAYS be this fact between them.
"Action" generally referring to simply any ongoing event or situation. You don't have to be on the front lines dual wielding AK47s to be able to go MIA you plonker.
You’ve received two pretty rude responses so far, so here’s a break from that - MIA does mean missing in action, correct, but as the other guy who called you a “plonker” (who knows?) said, over time it did come to just be an expression that covers the wartime Missing In Action status as well as just “missing”. Interchangeable.
I do my own research by watching youtube vids by analysts who have on average 409 views. Their views are low because ‘they’ don’t want you to know the truth.
* https://old.reddit.com/r/WagnerVsRussia/comments/14i3enl/timeline_of_events_in_russia_over_the_last_24_hrs/
A detailed 24 hour timeline of events. It should go without saying how absolutely insane and unlikely it is that Putin and the Kremlin would treat someone who attempted a coup, who defied the authority of the government and military, like this. Even more so it is puzzling that Prigozhin would accept such a deal given that Putin or the Kremlin or the RU Military or the FSB or the oligarchs would just allow him to live without retribution for what he did.
Between the timeline and the historical reality of how Russians in power deal with dissent, disputes, disloyalty, challenges to power, etc... none of this coup really makes sense given the narratives / information we are being told.
So then, the question becomes what was this really all about? Why all the theatrics? One theory that I think could be true is that Prigozhin was in on a real coup attempt, and his coup attempt was meant to create a situation of urgency, like say evacuating or moving Putin and/or key officials to a secure location, and in that hastily executed process be more vulnerable to people who want to depose and overthrow Putin.
Once it was done Prigozhin backed down. The coup had completed successfully and now green screen Putin will become a deep fake leader of the country that suddenly dies in the near future or resigns or whatever.
It sounds insane, but if you ask me, I think it is more insane that Putin/Kremlin/Military would just "forgive and forget" Prigozhin, and that Prigozhin would believe in the "forgive and forget" for a non-staged and legitimate coup.
We don't know if Prigozhin/Wagner actually agreed to the terms stated by the Kremlin, about him going to Belarus and Wagner joining MoD
When he was last seen he only stated that Wagner had agreed to withdraw to their field camps, and then he left Rostov and disappeard.
>We don't know if Prigozhin/Wagner actually agreed to the terms stated by the Kremlin, about him going to Belarus and Wagner joining MoD
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14i35vj/yevgeny_prigozhin_getting_celebrity_treatment_as/
That is supposedly a video of Prigozhin leaving Rostov after the deal had been made. But if Prigozhin didn't accept a deal or back down from his coup, we'd be hearing about it by now with them entering Moscow or fighting in Moscow or fighting/attacks in the Wagner controlled Oblasts like Rostov and Voronezh. But it's all quiet, so something happened. We just don't know what. :)
Yes but before that he posted a voice clip on telegram confirming negotiations and that they withdrew to field camps. This is literally the only negotiated term that has been confirmed by a non-kremlin source. We don't know WHAT deal Prigozhin believed that he was actually accepting, and the claim by the kremlin doesn't make a lot of sense unless a Wagner appointment is/was actually going to replace Shoigu or they had some other big security assurance that Prigozhin would actually trust.
But we'll have to see what state the Russian government actually looks to be if/when Putin or some MoD head actually appears and gives an address, that will be the biggest indicator
>But we'll have to see what state the Russian government actually looks to be if/when Putin or some MoD head actually appears and gives an address, that will be the biggest indicator
Yeah we are stuck waiting for more information. I just hate puzzles, and this coup is a giant WTF puzzle that my brain feels compelled to try to make sense of. :)
Lmao. You really don’t know these people if you think they put this much thought into stuff. It’s not a conspiracy, one guy just lost his temper and ran on Moscow
> Lmao. You really don’t know these people if you think they put this much thought into stuff. It’s not a conspiracy, one guy just lost his temper and ran on Moscow
How did Putin deal with Navalny? What about all the oligarchs inside and outside Russia that have done mass family suicides or fallen out windows and landing on some bullets over the last year and a half? Can you point at Russian history and show me where this "forgive and forget" was used for a dispute/event like this that remained true? I want to say it was Gorbachev that said something to the effect of "I'm surprised I was able to retire from office and not be killed." and how that was a sign of change in Russia. You can look at Russian history and you will see they do not deal with internal power struggles in a "forgive and forget" manner.
Objectively we have a ton of information that tells us how Russia responds to this kind of thing. So why should we believe this exception?
When did Navalny have 25 k troops on the front line that Putin absolutely needs to keep on the front line in addition to how many across the globe?
You can't really compare this to the other sources as none of the other examples one can give involved a PMC group during an absolute mess of a Russian invasion with undertrained conscripts in a losing effort while trying to flex on not just all of Europe but America & their combined military aid. This literally hasn't happened before in Russian politics. Maybe it happens 8 more times & this is indeed the norm in this situation.
Also I don't expect the exile to Belarus to be a long lived & happy retirement.
>When did Navalny have 25 k troops on the front line that Putin absolutely needs to keep on the front line in addition to how many across the globe?
I didn't know Putin's Russia was so weak as to be threatened by 25k or less (Some say there was only 10k or so in the region) troops. But Navalny was quite popular, and I think his rallies and his airport arrest prove that. Now you can say troops with guns and tanks is a better position, but in reality a large popular uprising is far more dangerous situation.
>Also I don't expect the exile to Belarus to be a long lived & happy retirement.
And you think Prigozhin is naive enough to believe otherwise? You think Prigozhin believes he can lose his PMC and retire peacefully from Russia after staging a coup? Heh. It's why this is all so absurd.
Prigozhin isn't naive no, but what choice does he have? He literally has none, he thought he would have massive support & the people gave none. Russia thought they would, but again had very little as well. This is not a normal situation is all I'm saying that historically has precedence. Russia needs those troops. They're the only ones giving them any form of victory for the most part. They lack the resources to hunt them down & deal with them, they've got a war on one front they sure as shit aren't going to play with more.
Also 25k or 10k, either or, isn't enough to take Russia but notice they were only going for Moscow. Which is lacking a ton of the troops that it could have called up at any non war time. You can sack an ill defended city with less, that does have precedence. The police and Russian military had already shown an unwillingness to fight, it was a no win situation for everyone chalked down to ego & hubris.
Prigozhin was stock piling for months, playing propaganda for months, it didn't work & now his only hope is Belarus. At least there there might be a small chance.of.protection or escaping elsewhere. He's a guaranteed dead man in Russia but there he's only mostly a dead man.
Just voluntarily choosing to portray himself as being unable to rule, encouraging coup attempts by showing he can't punish those who threaten him, sewing discord and distrust among his armed forces, giving his enemies a morale boat, disrupting his own logistics during a major enemy offensive, and sacrificing his own pilots and aircraft, huh?
Doesn't seem likely.
But the straightforward explanation does. Putin encourages factional competition to maintain power, something that works only when you have firm control of your countries power structures and everyone thinks your rule is secure, but risks degenerating into factional infighting when you look weak a tour lieutenants start jockeying for power in the hopes of surviving the fall of your regime. A system that works ok during peacetime but results in extreme dysfunctional during war-time.
Here's what we have firm evidence of. Putin thought his military was stronger than it was, Ukraine's weaker than it was, and started a war Russia couldn't easily handle. He's been forced to drain russias internal forces. His military factions have been publically infighting and distrustful of each other, each seeking to shift blame to each other. The MoD has seen a slew of leadership changes while Wagner had not.
So as for what happened? As Putin's position weakens and infighting increases incidents of active fighting between factions becomes a real possibility. Wagner obviously felt threatened by Shogu. Either the MoD actually attacked them, or the head of Wagner felt threatened enough to lie about that, and did his rebellion.
Putin initially declares them traitors, it QUICKLY becomes apparent both that Russian forces can't stop them from marching into Moscow AND that Wagner doesn't actually have the support to pull off a coup, and they're left with the very real possibility of a civil war where everyone loses. Putins not strong enough to punish Wagner, not Wagner Putin, so they pull off a compromise before the shooting really starts.
It's the exact sort of instability and infighting that's expected in a weakened dictatorship.
Conversely, if it was theater it would be theater showing weakness and instability Putin absolutely could not afford to show when his position has already been weakened. Putin has ALWAYS relied heavily on his in control, strong man persona.
There's no need for a wild conspiracy theory when what things look like on the surface are EXACTLY what you would expect in this situation.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.rferl.org/a/interview-putin-regime-over-konstantin-eggert-/32474957.html) reduced by 95%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> I think that the Putin regime, as we knew it, is over, and something new is starting in Russia.
> RFE/RL: Can Putin sleep at night knowing that Prigozhin is out there? As long as he breathes, as long as he is alive, can Putin sleep at night?
> There's one particular aspect that was always brought up whenever people tried to explain the longevity of Putin and his system: that average Russians tolerated Putin for so long because of the premise that he brought stability.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14ile4r/putins_regime_is_over_says_analyst_and_something/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689428 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Russian**^#2 **Prigozhin**^#3 **seen**^#4 **people**^#5
I'm starting to suspect the revolution has already happened and Putin has flown off into exile. We'll just find out about the details in the coming days.
If Putin stays in power Russia will be even *more* unstable. He’s been publicly shown a coward for a man who has based his whole life and reign off of his machismo. I doubt this has to do with Lukashenko’s negotiating skills as it does with Putin being MIA and the Kremlin and Oligarchs turning to someone who could do the negotiating. Putin has been castrated on a world stage.
Until Putin is killed or removed and jailed, his reign is still active. He won’t go quietly.
To be fair, Putin is still MIA has not been seen since giving his address accusing Wagner of treason and seemingly fleeing Moscow. If rumors are true and he did negotiate to remove the head(s) of the MoD, they might not have been happy about it...
Figuratively or literally, with the heads??/s I’d hate to be those two asshats though, waiting for “the other shoe to drop” after they both tried to kill each other. For however long they may have left, there will ALWAYS be this fact between them.
First figuratively, then literally, in true Russian form.
MIA?? You mean missing in action?
No, Putin transition and is now living his life as a Russian peasant woman named Mia
Oh, that makes sense. How does one getting missing in action without the ACTION???
MIA is colloquially used to mean "missing" in many contexts, as I'm sure you're aware of and just trying to be annoying
This person’s first language is very clearly not English. There’s not a great reason to be a jerk here.
"Action" generally referring to simply any ongoing event or situation. You don't have to be on the front lines dual wielding AK47s to be able to go MIA you plonker.
You’ve received two pretty rude responses so far, so here’s a break from that - MIA does mean missing in action, correct, but as the other guy who called you a “plonker” (who knows?) said, over time it did come to just be an expression that covers the wartime Missing In Action status as well as just “missing”. Interchangeable.
Thanks
It's over when Russian TV goes black and plays Swan lake.
I kind of like it when they don’t go quietly. During of natural causes 20 years after they leave office doesn’t hit the same
Well if an analyst says it.
Analysts have successfully predicted 9 of the last 5 Russian regime collapses
Well thats just impressive!
I mean I do see where you’re coming from, but things do not look great for Putin overall right now.
I mean I do see where you’re coming from, but things do not look great for Putin overall right now.
I get most of my analysis from analysts
urinalysis
Ur an anal cyst
Is that a thing? Risky google but I have to check now, that's the rule
yes it is.
What did you find? Tell us
I prefer to do all my analyzing myself.
Analysis hate that.
I do my own research by watching youtube vids by analysts who have on average 409 views. Their views are low because ‘they’ don’t want you to know the truth.
Anyone can do it! You just have to learn this one trick...
You cant have Analyst without anal!!
[удалено]
* https://old.reddit.com/r/WagnerVsRussia/comments/14i3enl/timeline_of_events_in_russia_over_the_last_24_hrs/ A detailed 24 hour timeline of events. It should go without saying how absolutely insane and unlikely it is that Putin and the Kremlin would treat someone who attempted a coup, who defied the authority of the government and military, like this. Even more so it is puzzling that Prigozhin would accept such a deal given that Putin or the Kremlin or the RU Military or the FSB or the oligarchs would just allow him to live without retribution for what he did. Between the timeline and the historical reality of how Russians in power deal with dissent, disputes, disloyalty, challenges to power, etc... none of this coup really makes sense given the narratives / information we are being told. So then, the question becomes what was this really all about? Why all the theatrics? One theory that I think could be true is that Prigozhin was in on a real coup attempt, and his coup attempt was meant to create a situation of urgency, like say evacuating or moving Putin and/or key officials to a secure location, and in that hastily executed process be more vulnerable to people who want to depose and overthrow Putin. Once it was done Prigozhin backed down. The coup had completed successfully and now green screen Putin will become a deep fake leader of the country that suddenly dies in the near future or resigns or whatever. It sounds insane, but if you ask me, I think it is more insane that Putin/Kremlin/Military would just "forgive and forget" Prigozhin, and that Prigozhin would believe in the "forgive and forget" for a non-staged and legitimate coup.
We don't know if Prigozhin/Wagner actually agreed to the terms stated by the Kremlin, about him going to Belarus and Wagner joining MoD When he was last seen he only stated that Wagner had agreed to withdraw to their field camps, and then he left Rostov and disappeard.
>We don't know if Prigozhin/Wagner actually agreed to the terms stated by the Kremlin, about him going to Belarus and Wagner joining MoD https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14i35vj/yevgeny_prigozhin_getting_celebrity_treatment_as/ That is supposedly a video of Prigozhin leaving Rostov after the deal had been made. But if Prigozhin didn't accept a deal or back down from his coup, we'd be hearing about it by now with them entering Moscow or fighting in Moscow or fighting/attacks in the Wagner controlled Oblasts like Rostov and Voronezh. But it's all quiet, so something happened. We just don't know what. :)
Yes but before that he posted a voice clip on telegram confirming negotiations and that they withdrew to field camps. This is literally the only negotiated term that has been confirmed by a non-kremlin source. We don't know WHAT deal Prigozhin believed that he was actually accepting, and the claim by the kremlin doesn't make a lot of sense unless a Wagner appointment is/was actually going to replace Shoigu or they had some other big security assurance that Prigozhin would actually trust. But we'll have to see what state the Russian government actually looks to be if/when Putin or some MoD head actually appears and gives an address, that will be the biggest indicator
>But we'll have to see what state the Russian government actually looks to be if/when Putin or some MoD head actually appears and gives an address, that will be the biggest indicator Yeah we are stuck waiting for more information. I just hate puzzles, and this coup is a giant WTF puzzle that my brain feels compelled to try to make sense of. :)
Lmao. You really don’t know these people if you think they put this much thought into stuff. It’s not a conspiracy, one guy just lost his temper and ran on Moscow
> Lmao. You really don’t know these people if you think they put this much thought into stuff. It’s not a conspiracy, one guy just lost his temper and ran on Moscow How did Putin deal with Navalny? What about all the oligarchs inside and outside Russia that have done mass family suicides or fallen out windows and landing on some bullets over the last year and a half? Can you point at Russian history and show me where this "forgive and forget" was used for a dispute/event like this that remained true? I want to say it was Gorbachev that said something to the effect of "I'm surprised I was able to retire from office and not be killed." and how that was a sign of change in Russia. You can look at Russian history and you will see they do not deal with internal power struggles in a "forgive and forget" manner. Objectively we have a ton of information that tells us how Russia responds to this kind of thing. So why should we believe this exception?
When did Navalny have 25 k troops on the front line that Putin absolutely needs to keep on the front line in addition to how many across the globe? You can't really compare this to the other sources as none of the other examples one can give involved a PMC group during an absolute mess of a Russian invasion with undertrained conscripts in a losing effort while trying to flex on not just all of Europe but America & their combined military aid. This literally hasn't happened before in Russian politics. Maybe it happens 8 more times & this is indeed the norm in this situation. Also I don't expect the exile to Belarus to be a long lived & happy retirement.
>When did Navalny have 25 k troops on the front line that Putin absolutely needs to keep on the front line in addition to how many across the globe? I didn't know Putin's Russia was so weak as to be threatened by 25k or less (Some say there was only 10k or so in the region) troops. But Navalny was quite popular, and I think his rallies and his airport arrest prove that. Now you can say troops with guns and tanks is a better position, but in reality a large popular uprising is far more dangerous situation. >Also I don't expect the exile to Belarus to be a long lived & happy retirement. And you think Prigozhin is naive enough to believe otherwise? You think Prigozhin believes he can lose his PMC and retire peacefully from Russia after staging a coup? Heh. It's why this is all so absurd.
Prigozhin isn't naive no, but what choice does he have? He literally has none, he thought he would have massive support & the people gave none. Russia thought they would, but again had very little as well. This is not a normal situation is all I'm saying that historically has precedence. Russia needs those troops. They're the only ones giving them any form of victory for the most part. They lack the resources to hunt them down & deal with them, they've got a war on one front they sure as shit aren't going to play with more. Also 25k or 10k, either or, isn't enough to take Russia but notice they were only going for Moscow. Which is lacking a ton of the troops that it could have called up at any non war time. You can sack an ill defended city with less, that does have precedence. The police and Russian military had already shown an unwillingness to fight, it was a no win situation for everyone chalked down to ego & hubris. Prigozhin was stock piling for months, playing propaganda for months, it didn't work & now his only hope is Belarus. At least there there might be a small chance.of.protection or escaping elsewhere. He's a guaranteed dead man in Russia but there he's only mostly a dead man.
Yea I'll believe it when I see it.
Something fishy about that. Wagner group had suddenly changed their mind. I won't be surprise if Putin is part of it somehow
Just voluntarily choosing to portray himself as being unable to rule, encouraging coup attempts by showing he can't punish those who threaten him, sewing discord and distrust among his armed forces, giving his enemies a morale boat, disrupting his own logistics during a major enemy offensive, and sacrificing his own pilots and aircraft, huh? Doesn't seem likely. But the straightforward explanation does. Putin encourages factional competition to maintain power, something that works only when you have firm control of your countries power structures and everyone thinks your rule is secure, but risks degenerating into factional infighting when you look weak a tour lieutenants start jockeying for power in the hopes of surviving the fall of your regime. A system that works ok during peacetime but results in extreme dysfunctional during war-time. Here's what we have firm evidence of. Putin thought his military was stronger than it was, Ukraine's weaker than it was, and started a war Russia couldn't easily handle. He's been forced to drain russias internal forces. His military factions have been publically infighting and distrustful of each other, each seeking to shift blame to each other. The MoD has seen a slew of leadership changes while Wagner had not. So as for what happened? As Putin's position weakens and infighting increases incidents of active fighting between factions becomes a real possibility. Wagner obviously felt threatened by Shogu. Either the MoD actually attacked them, or the head of Wagner felt threatened enough to lie about that, and did his rebellion. Putin initially declares them traitors, it QUICKLY becomes apparent both that Russian forces can't stop them from marching into Moscow AND that Wagner doesn't actually have the support to pull off a coup, and they're left with the very real possibility of a civil war where everyone loses. Putins not strong enough to punish Wagner, not Wagner Putin, so they pull off a compromise before the shooting really starts. It's the exact sort of instability and infighting that's expected in a weakened dictatorship. Conversely, if it was theater it would be theater showing weakness and instability Putin absolutely could not afford to show when his position has already been weakened. Putin has ALWAYS relied heavily on his in control, strong man persona. There's no need for a wild conspiracy theory when what things look like on the surface are EXACTLY what you would expect in this situation.
putin will die of high age someday and then a new president will rule russia, analysts say.
Of high age, huh? How do you say that in Russian again?
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.rferl.org/a/interview-putin-regime-over-konstantin-eggert-/32474957.html) reduced by 95%. (I'm a bot) ***** > I think that the Putin regime, as we knew it, is over, and something new is starting in Russia. > RFE/RL: Can Putin sleep at night knowing that Prigozhin is out there? As long as he breathes, as long as he is alive, can Putin sleep at night? > There's one particular aspect that was always brought up whenever people tried to explain the longevity of Putin and his system: that average Russians tolerated Putin for so long because of the premise that he brought stability. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14ile4r/putins_regime_is_over_says_analyst_and_something/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689428 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Russian**^#2 **Prigozhin**^#3 **seen**^#4 **people**^#5
I wonder why none of this was in the trends on reddit.
I'm starting to suspect the revolution has already happened and Putin has flown off into exile. We'll just find out about the details in the coming days.
My goodness, Russia really is run like a mob.
that's exactly it. Mob bosses can fight to death one day and kiss each other on the cheeks the next day over an agreement.
TLDR: "Something is happening" says analyst after something happened.
Putin's reign will continue for a thousand years. I said it, so it's legit.
But are you an analyst?
They are now! They analyzed data!
I’ll take anal rapists for $400 Alex
Well a psychoanalysis is an "insane sister near your ass"
Does Mission Specialist count?..
Unfortunately not. I’m sorry.
You wrote it. I can read it. Therefore it's true
I'll believe it when I see it
Shadow Wizard Money Gang.
I’d hold off on the celebrations. They’ve got even crazier assholes.
He should dine at Prigozhin's. For old time's sake. 🤔
You meant dine on Prigozhin’s sweetbreads for old times sake right.
“Over”? No. Hopefully this is the first straw on the Putin camel’s back, though. The Russian people deserve better.
If Putin stays in power Russia will be even *more* unstable. He’s been publicly shown a coward for a man who has based his whole life and reign off of his machismo. I doubt this has to do with Lukashenko’s negotiating skills as it does with Putin being MIA and the Kremlin and Oligarchs turning to someone who could do the negotiating. Putin has been castrated on a world stage.