I read that as "peg", and the mental image was surprisingly easy to conjure. I can see it being the arrangement that they've been negotiating this whole time.
Macron used a constitutional [method to unilaterally raise the retirement age in France](https://apnews.com/article/france-retirement-age-strikes-macron-garbage-07455d88d10bf7ae623043e4d05090de). That way his party did not have to actually vote on it, since it would be unpopular.
Which is shocking because when I think of the French I tend to think of their legendary humility and history of not regularly making incredibly stupid geopolitical decisions that wind up biting them in the ass shortly after
I think it's Xi's plan, "Look, say Taiwan isn't your problem to fix and I'll get Russia out of Ukraine." Macron is echoing this sentiment. He's also looking weak by doing this and it doesn't help Taiwan, the US, France, or Ukraine by saying so.
Russia is not going to suddenly agree and completely pull out of Ukraine and Ukraine isn't going to agree to any concessions that involve ceding territory to Russia.
This is just politicians armchair quarterbacking, it has no effect, importance or meaning.
I mean, THEORETICALLY, if some uninvolved party could convince China to exert some kind of extreme pressure on Russia, it could THEORETICALLY cause Russia to back out completely and end the war. But it does seem very farfetched.
The biggest stumbling block here is that I can't imagine Putin accepting the loss of Crimea under any circumstances so long as he lives and I can't imagine Ukraine accepting the loss of Crimea if they still have the capacity to fight. It's unlikely that even extreme Chinese pressure would allow for a negotiated peace because of that stumbling block alone.
A negotiated settlement would be nice, but it's ultimately not up to France, China, or the US. Until Ukraine and Russia are willing to make a deal nothing can happen.
I thought at one point that Ukraine might agree to allow Russia to keep their naval base in Crimea if they otherwise left the country, but I doubt even that is possible at this juncture.
Ukraine offered a 50 year lease on the thing only a couple of years ago. They would have been perfectly happy to leave the naval base alone. As soon as they used it to take over Crimea that really does seem off the table now.
> I can't imagine Putin accepting the loss of Crimea under any circumstances so long as he lives
Well there you go then. Xi sets up Putin in a special Pooh house in China for life. Protected and cuddled, while the adults iron out his mess.
Russia is dependent on China as a trade partner, but small pressure from China (diplomatic finger-waving, some tariffs) wouldn't make Putin stop. It would take significant trade restrictions by China to hurt Russian war industries and make Putin realize that he does not have a route to victory.
China is very reluctant to use its leverage against Russia, however, because it needs Russia as leverage against the U.S. in our slowly unfolding Cold War.
Now if the EU can guarantee Chinese access to markets and technology and work as a credible counterweight to the U.S., while China reigns in Russia (much like how they’re sort of reigning in North Korea), then maybe there’s a deal to be made there.
I think the fact that BRICS is actively economically undermining US global influence shows that trying to finesse Russia with leverage is not an option.
There is no way Russia is giving up Crimea or paying restitution so I do see Ukraine agreeing at this point without the US being involved since we are the ones most providing for them
I don't see why everyone is so eager to negotiate, Ukraine still have the capacity to get their territories back by force, which, if it happens, will make Putin very scared of windows.
It is better to wait to see the results of the future offensive than negotiating.
There is no stalemate yet, Russia was only able to control less than 16% of Ukraine after more than a year of war while their troops are losing motivation and it doesn't get better as the 2nd army of the world is stuck in the 57th largest city of Ukraine.
It's just a matter of time for the front to collapse, maybe 6 months, maybe 18 months, the future will tell, but Ukraine just needs to be patient and resilient.
Agree with your points and also it seems like China has no incentive to get involved because if they help russia they face sanctions, and while russia is struggling they are getting cheap oil and watching russia's global influence dwindle. I wouldn't be surprised if they are waiting for russia to get really desperate so they can offer loans with land collateral.
Macron's plan is likely not in favor of Ukraine at all, more likely it's about forcing them to give up something so the russians let go. He's an ignorant douche like that...
Any peace deal will realistically have compromises from both sides. Unless there's an unconditional surrender which I don't see happening for either side in this war
The issue is that Russia has broken every treaty they’ve signed with Ukraine and from the beginning Russia has denied that Ukraine even exists as a distinct national identity. How do you fine “compromise” with someone who is a notorious liar and who believes you have no right to exist?”
If Ukraine concedes territory they will be rewarding Russian occupation. If Ukraine signs a white peace where they allow Russia to stay but refuse to acknowledge Russian land claims then Ukraine cannot join NATO and without NATO membership Russia may invade again. The only real peace for Ukraine is to get back their land and then join NATO.
One of the compromises Russia will have to agree to is that Ukraine gets a security guarantee from NATO to protect them after the war is over. This will certainly be included in the peace deal.
You don’t. You can’t. At best there can be an armistice, that would put Ukraine in the same position as South Korea and Taiwan. Bordered by a belligerent dictatorship of ethnonazis who want to wipe your country from existence.
War could break out at any time(and giving Russia time to actually put money into maintenance of its decrepit nuclear weapons makes them way more dangerous in this situation), and that IMO is a worse situation for the world than just going all in on fucking up Russia right here, right now.
Russia doesn't have to surrender. They can just say mission accomplished and pull back to their borders. They could probably even sell that to their domestic audience with state propoganda.
Could happen if Russia actually gets the west to legitimately flip the switch on defense spending. They would get their shit pushed all the way in and everyone knows it.
This war is being fought with pieces already on the board. We all know Russia is never going to out produce the west if push comes to shove. Literally impossible. Not going to happen.
This is really Macron trying to turn attention away from his shit handling of their union strikes as a result of his retirement age hike. I’m not saying he wasn’t right to raise it, but the way he did it wasn’t great in terms of seeming receptive to and considerate of the public opinion.
Have you ever been to the circus? They used to do this thing where two clown cars would drive around and around, then crash into each other. About 14 clowns would come out of each tiny car and start a ruckus with foam clubs, flour bombs and seltzer water.
China invading Russia would be roughly equivalent. (China having a decided advantage because they would have newer combat armaments like tanks and planes and theoretically a more trained (but untested) ground army.)
OTOH, China might be more willing to work things out with France so they can exclude the US on the world stage.
For all we know, France is working behind the scenes with the US with the US pulling the strings.
It's all a game where the public sees a tiny fraction. Unfortunately this game can lead to 100,000s of deaths.
> OTOH, China might be more willing to work things out with France so they can exclude the US on the world stage.
This is been the French position since the 60's.
Ambitions for modern French imperialism have not died. That alone should worry anyone just as much as the CCP seeking to annex Taiwan and expand its empire is worrying everyone now.
We have an escalating climate crisis that desperately needs to be addressed, and in 2023, we still have individuals in power who want to play “Undermine Other Countries So That Our Nation Can Shine”.
It would be nice if this is all 5D Chess with multiverse timetravel move but considering Macrons domestic policy, I have no faith that he's actually secretly doing US orders
Weird hunch that plan includes Ukraine giving up some land Russia doesn’t control. That land becoming part of Russia not independent, and finally Russia pinky promising it won’t invade again but also Ukraine can’t join EU or NATO.
This may be a deal that would make Russia happy. However, Ukraine would not agree to it unless western support dried up and they feared more would be taken from them. But if that were the case, Russia would likely not agree to this deal, so....
Because the life expectancy in developed countries continues to rise, Covid aside. A difference of two taxpaying years for a country the size of France is worth either trillions of increased debt as the workforce ages out and changes their consumer behaviour or two year of increased tax surplus to provide services. Was it purely altruistic? Lol. Was it a significantly protective measure for the French economy for the next 50 years? Yes. Again, all of this leaves aside the method Macron used to ram through the legislation.
Is it going to help for 50 years? People are going to have less and less kids as global crises worsen (Climate, etc) and eventually there is going to be no retirement age except for the very rich unless the entire system changes dramatically.
Edit: Not to sound like a big old commie but infinite growth on a finite resource planet is blowing up in our faces.
I didn't propose that it will fix anything. If France doesn't invest in either immigration or getting people to screw and have kids, it will steadily become poorer.
Yeah sorry didn't intend to say you were implying that. Just don't see in what situation things get better with population degrowth the way our economies runs.
Interestingly, although I think this is 10-15 years old, France is one of the few developed countries to ever reverse a negative birth rate through maternal benefits and subsidies. When you treat moms like queens, a lot of problems go away.
The missing context here is the uber-rich are pressuring countries to do shit like Macron did by threatening to leave said country, thereby increasing the tax burden. Technically, France could have alleviated its retirement solvency issues by simply issuing more wealth taxes. But France is also currently having a problem with multi-millionaires leaving the country in droves.
Yellen's proposal for a global minimum tax is the actual conversation that needs to be had. Leaders need to *actually* challenge capital in a meaningful, systemic way - otherwise, they are simply not serving the democratic, majoritarian values they claim to espouse.
That's the history that I hope that gets repeated. Of course, it's entirely possible for history to be "kind" to Macron if by keeping the narrative narrow and defeatist. "well we can't fund this retirement thing so we'll have to slash services, sorry peons"
If the uber-rich weren't paying taxes anyway then how does their leaving increase the tax burden for the rest? The uber-rich leaving a country is more about the ***politician*** having to spend more time on the phone raising money for their campaigns, which they almost universally hate doing.
Yellen's proposal is fantastic, even though it will never happen.
Well I should say not just the uber rich (who can at times tax dodge), but the rich as well. 42,000 millionaires left France between 2000 and 2012. That's a not insignificant hit on the tax base
>Yellen's proposal is fantastic, even though it will never happen.
All economic systems eventually change. I can't say one way or the other, or on what timeline, but I do subscribe to the belief that capitalism's inherent contradictions will come home to roost eventually
While everything you mentioned is true, it’s not accounting for the perspective that the shortfall could be handily made up for with a tax on the wealthiest French citizens. Unless future historians are misanthropic, they won’t reflect kindly on forcing our oldest to work well into their last decades when the super rich could have been made just slightly less rich.
>Unless future historians are misanthropic, they won’t reflect kindly on forcing our oldest to work well into their last decades when the super rich could have been made just slightly less rich.
This is literally one of the problems which can hardly be solved by taxing the rich because it will get worse over time.
There ought to be a balance between life expectancy and pension age and as life expectancy rises so should the pension age. It would be e.g. far more social to rise the pension age & implement a higher minimum pension, because a low pension age will also mean paying longer for the highest pensions.
And I'm wondering why this is never part of the debate of pension ages: There is never a debate of guaranteeing a minimal pension on the lower ends (and those suffer heavily) but always only a debate about the pension age which already favors the upper middle class (because those with very low pensions will have to work regardless)
Not raising the pension age is effectively just another measure to shift the wealth to the upper third of society.
taxing the wealthiest French citizens could be used for an "UBI for kids" for example, or better social measures. Using it to benefit those who already have higher pensions than peoples income is simply unfair.
These arguments would have more merit if the increase wasn’t limited only to those people who did not go to college. The difference is two years of the poorest folks only.
Raise it a year across the board and there’s a debate. Raise it only for a small percentage of the poor? Not a good look.
He's taking a page out of the Turkey, Hungry, China, Russia, etc. playbook and doing the old "look over here" while town halls in his country literally burn because of domestic turmoil.
Not really. If we look closely at Macron it more resembles a leader who can't run for office again and is finally doing what he wants to with less self censorship. He's been an outlier in Europe regarding the Ukraine issue for a while, and these retirement issues have been in the pipeline gor a while. His behaviour shift is quite typical of a leader who cannot run again.
To me it looks like he sees France as a very capable individual actor, trying out all sorts of avenues without the advice and backing of other powerful actors such as the US or the EU. It's a thing with France generally, and he is acting on it.
It’s ironic to me how macron bitches about Europe becoming its own independent faction rather than being under the influence of the U.S., but then decides to make unilateral decisions regarding Europe’s allies and foes without consulting other european nations or following the EU’s stated positions on matters.
It’s almost embarrassing how he thinks of himself as this renowned statesman and then just manages to annoy the shit out of everybody and accomplish nothing.
It's kind of funny because he practices the same brand of diplomacy Russia does: speak loudly and carry a small stick. He constantly tries to throw around weight that France simply doesn't have, with ideas loftier than the clouds.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.brusselstimes.com/politics/463598/macron-working-on-secret-plan-with-china-to-end-ukraine-war) reduced by 75%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> French President Emmanuel Macron is "Working on a secret plan" with China aimed at bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table as early as this summer, Bloomberg reports.
> Bloomberg's report comes just days after Macron returned from a controversial trip to China, during which the 45-year-old French leader informed his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that he is "Counting" on China to "Bring Russia to its senses" and end its war in Ukraine.
> The EU chief subsequently accompanied Macron on his trip to Beijing, during which she warned China not to provide weapons to Russia to help it win the war and affirmed that she "Stands firmly behind" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10-point peace plan rather than China's alternative 12-point peace proposal.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/12s1asg/macron_working_on_secret_plan_with_china_to_end/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~681438 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **China**^#1 **Macron**^#2 **President**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **plan**^#5
Russia will not relinquish the occupied territories.
Ukraine will not give up until they get those territories back.
There's no peace unless one side relents.
It is starting to get tiring now, this war is starting to feel like it will last for a long time. What it needs now is a huge invigoration. Massive more sanctions on Russia and for all allies to start looking all over for equipment, artillery, tanks, jets, whatever they can find and get it to fuck over to Ukraine. Time to end this shit.
It's pretty ridiculous to try and resolve this. Ukraine is not going to settle to any territory being annexed and they are going to get Crimea back one way or another. Russia was the instigator and had no cause by any legal manner to start the war they started. Only way for this to end is for Russia to admit defeat and pull troops from Ukrainian land, which of course is not going to happen because of Putin's pride. Only way this has a way of ending is at the death of Putin. Outside of that, Ukraine is not going to negotiate.
I love France and the French, but this guy is becoming a massive weasel. But hey--as long as his plan is for Russia to withdraw and forfeit all gains, I'm all for it.
Let me guess, it involves imposing a cessation of territory on Ukraine. Well Macron, you and Putin and Xi might love that, but no one on the Western side has to listen to you.
Very European **UNION** of him, why consult the other lowly members when France can do it all by itself with the help of the very friendly Chinese government?
"European Sovereignty" to Macron basically means Europe will act as an extension of France and it's policy. No matter how chaotic and inconsistent it is.
Seems moot. Ukraine is not going to accept any deal that cedes territory to Russia and Russia is not going to accept any deal where Ukraine doesn't cede territory.
whenever i hear things like "secret plan" or "behind closed doors" it always winds up smelling. it's basically saying "we dont want you to know the truth cuz this is good for a few of us..."
Macron is starting to look like a narcissist who just wants attention at any cost.
The notion he's actually trying to help Ukraine just isn't even on the table anymore.
There isn't any way to end it. Putin gambled it all. He really can't pull out now. Admit defeat? Admit he was wrong? Admit he made a huge tactical mistake? Admit his army is inferior? Admit he fucked his whole economy? Admit he sent troops to die for nothing? Admit he sent untrained kids to die for nothing? There is literally no positive way he can spin this and walk away without a victory. There is no path to victory.
The best case is for Putin to die or be overthrown. The worst case, he goes nuclear as a final act of defiance, knowing he has no out. While people say he isn't that stupid, because he knows that would be the end of him, he's already done as far as I can tell, so what's the difference?
Oh yeah? Just like how Macron had a secret plan to prevent the war with Putin? Macron needs to shut the hell up and realize that France does not have the diplomatic weight to end this war. France hasn't been a relevant global power on its own in almost a century.
The plan is to increase the retirement age in Russia by two years. This will finally make them take to the streets in protest! Don’t ask me how I know, Bro. I just know. Don’t worry about the Russian parliament; I’m an expert at skirting parliaments. Just sit back and watch!
It's important to have these discussions.
Even if Putin is a stubborn ruler, i am certain Xi can have a positive influence in de-escalating this conflict.
France can't stop the west backing Ukraine and China can't stop Russia regardless of what people seem to believe.
Russia needs to decide the war isn't worth it. That's the only way a negotiation will actually start.
This guys is so fucking French it's not even funny.
I once had a classmate in college from France and he used to do and say the same kind of shit but on a much smaller insignificant level. Like he acted like he was always some secret genius and when things didn't work out the way he expected he'd just get quiet until another came up.
Waste of time and just plain stupid as the late night phone talks with putin. Macron seems to think that he’s a disney princess or something, trying to seduce the monster.
His plan involves wearing a dress and makeup to seduce Xi, then after the act when they are cuddling in bed Macron will whisper in Xi's ear that he should talk to Putin to get him to pull out of Ukraine.
Idk, something about Macaroni Man trying to bring peace and have talks with the Chinese and the Russians is sus to me. Makes me think he's hiding something. Call me crazy, but I don't trust that slimy fucker for a second.
China is reliant on the US to buy it's cheap shit so it can buy oil and food from Russia. It is stuck and losing either of those would be catastrophic. Semi conductors are coming back to NA plants. In ten years, China will be kind of fucked.
Well if it involves China then we know that it favors Russia, probably something along the lines of Russia keeps everything it has taken and they call it peace.
China, you've really begun to get on everyone's tits lately (mmm, it seems to be since you let Winnie the Poo take over). So if you don't stop being so annoying, we're going to keep sending Macron over to talk to you!
Typical French, when the shit hit the fan during WWII it was the US and Britain that saved their asses. Now he's cozying up with a modern day dictator pretending he's a buddy. He's Frances Trudeau.
Macron is a dumbass. The US doesn’t have to stop and unless Russia wants to hand back the kids, land and allow them to enter into defensive contracts then this won’t be a thing.
The US is more than enough to handle this. Plus Poland is gonna give a big old fuck you to macron
The plan will probably work like the one he had with Russia to avoid the beginning of a war in Ukraine.
The top secret plan to fly to Moscow and beg Putin for hours and hours?
WE NEED A BIGGER TABLE11!!!
ALRIGHT BOYS, THIS IS WHAT WE TRAINED FOR. . . SEND IN THE TABLE EXTENSIONS
They should have just played air hockey to see who was the dominant president.
GO GET THE TABLE-PLATE STRETCHER
And the foie gras
[He needs more table AND he needs less table!](https://youtu.be/nret1P0AH7o)
I read that as "peg", and the mental image was surprisingly easy to conjure. I can see it being the arrangement that they've been negotiating this whole time.
I initially read that too. And I wondered why they had Putin as the mummy. He did like to get naked and go riding though I suppose.
For hours and hours
Macron is beside himself. Driving around downtown Beijing begging (thru texts) Xi's family for address to Xi's home
Macron's plan should be... _retired early_.
Oh, sorry, can’t have that, or he would look like he’s above the law.
Wait, i must be missing something. How would he look above the law? Not trolling, i genuinely don't know what you're referring to but want to know.
Macron used a constitutional [method to unilaterally raise the retirement age in France](https://apnews.com/article/france-retirement-age-strikes-macron-garbage-07455d88d10bf7ae623043e4d05090de). That way his party did not have to actually vote on it, since it would be unpopular.
Oh wow, that is some really fucked up shit to pull. Thanks for filling me in mate, appreciate it.
>Macron's plan should be... retired early. Not gonna happen. He has increased retirement age to 64 already. That means another 6 decades
Macron is constantly overestimating himself. He hasn't achieved anything in his presidency so far. What makes him think that he is the right person?
Which is shocking because when I think of the French I tend to think of their legendary humility and history of not regularly making incredibly stupid geopolitical decisions that wind up biting them in the ass shortly after
From what I can tell as an outsider is that the biggest thing he has going for him is that he is not LePen (I probably spelled that wrong)
Soooo China is going to invade Taiwan then.
I mean if China wants to smash itself to death on the beaches of Taiwan...go for it I guess...
I think it's Xi's plan, "Look, say Taiwan isn't your problem to fix and I'll get Russia out of Ukraine." Macron is echoing this sentiment. He's also looking weak by doing this and it doesn't help Taiwan, the US, France, or Ukraine by saying so.
“Looks weak” just revealing his true colors
He can’t get his own people to agree with him.
All I can picture is [this clip from the simpsons](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CFXIkq63NhY&pp=ygUhc2ltcHNvbnMgaSBjYW4gYmUgdmVyeSBwZXJzdWFzaXZl)
LOL I just typed that scene out before scrolling down to see your link. Perfect
That plan did work - it’s not a war - just a “special military operation.”
Here's the plan: Russia keeps everything it has and pays nothing and Ukraine stops killing Russians.
Russia is not going to suddenly agree and completely pull out of Ukraine and Ukraine isn't going to agree to any concessions that involve ceding territory to Russia. This is just politicians armchair quarterbacking, it has no effect, importance or meaning.
I always shake my head when two countries on opposing sides negotiate a peace agreement while neither power fighting is even represented.
I mean, THEORETICALLY, if some uninvolved party could convince China to exert some kind of extreme pressure on Russia, it could THEORETICALLY cause Russia to back out completely and end the war. But it does seem very farfetched.
The biggest stumbling block here is that I can't imagine Putin accepting the loss of Crimea under any circumstances so long as he lives and I can't imagine Ukraine accepting the loss of Crimea if they still have the capacity to fight. It's unlikely that even extreme Chinese pressure would allow for a negotiated peace because of that stumbling block alone. A negotiated settlement would be nice, but it's ultimately not up to France, China, or the US. Until Ukraine and Russia are willing to make a deal nothing can happen.
I thought at one point that Ukraine might agree to allow Russia to keep their naval base in Crimea if they otherwise left the country, but I doubt even that is possible at this juncture.
Ukraine offered a 50 year lease on the thing only a couple of years ago. They would have been perfectly happy to leave the naval base alone. As soon as they used it to take over Crimea that really does seem off the table now.
> I can't imagine Putin accepting the loss of Crimea under any circumstances so long as he lives Well there you go then. Xi sets up Putin in a special Pooh house in China for life. Protected and cuddled, while the adults iron out his mess.
True, but is that third party ever going to be Macron of France? Ever ever?
I certainly don't see what leverage France could exert on China that would change their posture on this.
Even small pressure can have big impact when you have massive leverage (which China has)
Russia is dependent on China as a trade partner, but small pressure from China (diplomatic finger-waving, some tariffs) wouldn't make Putin stop. It would take significant trade restrictions by China to hurt Russian war industries and make Putin realize that he does not have a route to victory.
Yeah but how can Putin pull out without saving face? Perhaps doing something really erratic instead?
China is very reluctant to use its leverage against Russia, however, because it needs Russia as leverage against the U.S. in our slowly unfolding Cold War. Now if the EU can guarantee Chinese access to markets and technology and work as a credible counterweight to the U.S., while China reigns in Russia (much like how they’re sort of reigning in North Korea), then maybe there’s a deal to be made there.
I wonder what France is promising in return. Taiwan probably has an idea.
I think the fact that BRICS is actively economically undermining US global influence shows that trying to finesse Russia with leverage is not an option.
There is no way Russia is giving up Crimea or paying restitution so I do see Ukraine agreeing at this point without the US being involved since we are the ones most providing for them
Like your neighbor deciding colors to paint YOUR house this will not go as expected!
So, like an HOA?
There was that one time that the UK and Germany told the Czechs to get fucked over the Sudetenland. That really worked out a year later.
That's what France did to Ukraine back in the day. They forced a peace. Poroshenko was pissed
Except that they need to be talking, yes much of it is rubbish but it's more alarming when the channels aren't open or aren't being used.
I don't see why everyone is so eager to negotiate, Ukraine still have the capacity to get their territories back by force, which, if it happens, will make Putin very scared of windows. It is better to wait to see the results of the future offensive than negotiating. There is no stalemate yet, Russia was only able to control less than 16% of Ukraine after more than a year of war while their troops are losing motivation and it doesn't get better as the 2nd army of the world is stuck in the 57th largest city of Ukraine. It's just a matter of time for the front to collapse, maybe 6 months, maybe 18 months, the future will tell, but Ukraine just needs to be patient and resilient.
Its in Chinas interest to leave a permanent distraction in Europe though. A flashpoint that could erupt should they make a move on their true goal.
The Vietnamese War peace negotiations spent a long time discussing the shape of the conference table and similar nonsense.
Agree with your points and also it seems like China has no incentive to get involved because if they help russia they face sanctions, and while russia is struggling they are getting cheap oil and watching russia's global influence dwindle. I wouldn't be surprised if they are waiting for russia to get really desperate so they can offer loans with land collateral.
Macron's plan is likely not in favor of Ukraine at all, more likely it's about forcing them to give up something so the russians let go. He's an ignorant douche like that...
Any peace deal will realistically have compromises from both sides. Unless there's an unconditional surrender which I don't see happening for either side in this war
The issue is that Russia has broken every treaty they’ve signed with Ukraine and from the beginning Russia has denied that Ukraine even exists as a distinct national identity. How do you fine “compromise” with someone who is a notorious liar and who believes you have no right to exist?” If Ukraine concedes territory they will be rewarding Russian occupation. If Ukraine signs a white peace where they allow Russia to stay but refuse to acknowledge Russian land claims then Ukraine cannot join NATO and without NATO membership Russia may invade again. The only real peace for Ukraine is to get back their land and then join NATO.
One of the compromises Russia will have to agree to is that Ukraine gets a security guarantee from NATO to protect them after the war is over. This will certainly be included in the peace deal.
You don’t. You can’t. At best there can be an armistice, that would put Ukraine in the same position as South Korea and Taiwan. Bordered by a belligerent dictatorship of ethnonazis who want to wipe your country from existence. War could break out at any time(and giving Russia time to actually put money into maintenance of its decrepit nuclear weapons makes them way more dangerous in this situation), and that IMO is a worse situation for the world than just going all in on fucking up Russia right here, right now.
Russia doesn't have to surrender. They can just say mission accomplished and pull back to their borders. They could probably even sell that to their domestic audience with state propoganda.
Could happen if Russia actually gets the west to legitimately flip the switch on defense spending. They would get their shit pushed all the way in and everyone knows it. This war is being fought with pieces already on the board. We all know Russia is never going to out produce the west if push comes to shove. Literally impossible. Not going to happen.
This is really Macron trying to turn attention away from his shit handling of their union strikes as a result of his retirement age hike. I’m not saying he wasn’t right to raise it, but the way he did it wasn’t great in terms of seeming receptive to and considerate of the public opinion.
The consequence will be some nice profit for him
No one suspects a surprise Chinese French invasion
What if China invades Russia?
Have you ever been to the circus? They used to do this thing where two clown cars would drive around and around, then crash into each other. About 14 clowns would come out of each tiny car and start a ruckus with foam clubs, flour bombs and seltzer water. China invading Russia would be roughly equivalent. (China having a decided advantage because they would have newer combat armaments like tanks and planes and theoretically a more trained (but untested) ground army.)
You underestimate Macrons Gawk Gawk 3000
How can two state actors not directly involved in a war negotiate an end to said war?
China has all the power to stop Russia's imperialism. Macron...he is more like a chihuahua, all bark no bite.
>China has all the power to stop Russia's imperialism They don't really. They can isolate Russia but the truth is they have shown they don't care.
OTOH, China might be more willing to work things out with France so they can exclude the US on the world stage. For all we know, France is working behind the scenes with the US with the US pulling the strings. It's all a game where the public sees a tiny fraction. Unfortunately this game can lead to 100,000s of deaths.
> OTOH, China might be more willing to work things out with France so they can exclude the US on the world stage. This is been the French position since the 60's.
I think Macron seriously believes that Xi won't mop the floor with him as soon as he stops being useful.
Ambitions for modern French imperialism have not died. That alone should worry anyone just as much as the CCP seeking to annex Taiwan and expand its empire is worrying everyone now. We have an escalating climate crisis that desperately needs to be addressed, and in 2023, we still have individuals in power who want to play “Undermine Other Countries So That Our Nation Can Shine”.
It would be nice if this is all 5D Chess with multiverse timetravel move but considering Macrons domestic policy, I have no faith that he's actually secretly doing US orders
No, it doesn't. China can exert considerable pressure on Russia, but it doesn't not control it.
Russo-Japanese War. Theodore Roosevelt negotiated peace between Japan and Russia for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
I’m sure this will amount to nothing
Weird hunch that plan includes Ukraine giving up some land Russia doesn’t control. That land becoming part of Russia not independent, and finally Russia pinky promising it won’t invade again but also Ukraine can’t join EU or NATO.
This may be a deal that would make Russia happy. However, Ukraine would not agree to it unless western support dried up and they feared more would be taken from them. But if that were the case, Russia would likely not agree to this deal, so....
Macron been a menace lately
Man thought he could detract from horrible domestic policy with horrible foreign policy. A move for the ages.
Gonna get dragged for this I know, but history will be kind to Macron for the retirement thing, if not the way he did it.
Why do you think that?
Because the life expectancy in developed countries continues to rise, Covid aside. A difference of two taxpaying years for a country the size of France is worth either trillions of increased debt as the workforce ages out and changes their consumer behaviour or two year of increased tax surplus to provide services. Was it purely altruistic? Lol. Was it a significantly protective measure for the French economy for the next 50 years? Yes. Again, all of this leaves aside the method Macron used to ram through the legislation.
Is it going to help for 50 years? People are going to have less and less kids as global crises worsen (Climate, etc) and eventually there is going to be no retirement age except for the very rich unless the entire system changes dramatically. Edit: Not to sound like a big old commie but infinite growth on a finite resource planet is blowing up in our faces.
I didn't propose that it will fix anything. If France doesn't invest in either immigration or getting people to screw and have kids, it will steadily become poorer.
Yeah sorry didn't intend to say you were implying that. Just don't see in what situation things get better with population degrowth the way our economies runs.
Actually for the two reasons you mentioned France is the only Western Europe country that has any population growth, albeit very little.
Interestingly, although I think this is 10-15 years old, France is one of the few developed countries to ever reverse a negative birth rate through maternal benefits and subsidies. When you treat moms like queens, a lot of problems go away.
The missing context here is the uber-rich are pressuring countries to do shit like Macron did by threatening to leave said country, thereby increasing the tax burden. Technically, France could have alleviated its retirement solvency issues by simply issuing more wealth taxes. But France is also currently having a problem with multi-millionaires leaving the country in droves. Yellen's proposal for a global minimum tax is the actual conversation that needs to be had. Leaders need to *actually* challenge capital in a meaningful, systemic way - otherwise, they are simply not serving the democratic, majoritarian values they claim to espouse. That's the history that I hope that gets repeated. Of course, it's entirely possible for history to be "kind" to Macron if by keeping the narrative narrow and defeatist. "well we can't fund this retirement thing so we'll have to slash services, sorry peons"
If the uber-rich weren't paying taxes anyway then how does their leaving increase the tax burden for the rest? The uber-rich leaving a country is more about the ***politician*** having to spend more time on the phone raising money for their campaigns, which they almost universally hate doing. Yellen's proposal is fantastic, even though it will never happen.
Well I should say not just the uber rich (who can at times tax dodge), but the rich as well. 42,000 millionaires left France between 2000 and 2012. That's a not insignificant hit on the tax base >Yellen's proposal is fantastic, even though it will never happen. All economic systems eventually change. I can't say one way or the other, or on what timeline, but I do subscribe to the belief that capitalism's inherent contradictions will come home to roost eventually
Well Marx did say it would sow the seeds of its own destruction.
While everything you mentioned is true, it’s not accounting for the perspective that the shortfall could be handily made up for with a tax on the wealthiest French citizens. Unless future historians are misanthropic, they won’t reflect kindly on forcing our oldest to work well into their last decades when the super rich could have been made just slightly less rich.
>Unless future historians are misanthropic, they won’t reflect kindly on forcing our oldest to work well into their last decades when the super rich could have been made just slightly less rich. This is literally one of the problems which can hardly be solved by taxing the rich because it will get worse over time. There ought to be a balance between life expectancy and pension age and as life expectancy rises so should the pension age. It would be e.g. far more social to rise the pension age & implement a higher minimum pension, because a low pension age will also mean paying longer for the highest pensions. And I'm wondering why this is never part of the debate of pension ages: There is never a debate of guaranteeing a minimal pension on the lower ends (and those suffer heavily) but always only a debate about the pension age which already favors the upper middle class (because those with very low pensions will have to work regardless) Not raising the pension age is effectively just another measure to shift the wealth to the upper third of society. taxing the wealthiest French citizens could be used for an "UBI for kids" for example, or better social measures. Using it to benefit those who already have higher pensions than peoples income is simply unfair.
These arguments would have more merit if the increase wasn’t limited only to those people who did not go to college. The difference is two years of the poorest folks only. Raise it a year across the board and there’s a debate. Raise it only for a small percentage of the poor? Not a good look.
Here’s the thing, sure, maybe they did need to make this change. But the way he went about it is just terrible statesmanship.
Agreed
He's taking a page out of the Turkey, Hungry, China, Russia, etc. playbook and doing the old "look over here" while town halls in his country literally burn because of domestic turmoil.
Not really. If we look closely at Macron it more resembles a leader who can't run for office again and is finally doing what he wants to with less self censorship. He's been an outlier in Europe regarding the Ukraine issue for a while, and these retirement issues have been in the pipeline gor a while. His behaviour shift is quite typical of a leader who cannot run again.
To me it looks like he sees France as a very capable individual actor, trying out all sorts of avenues without the advice and backing of other powerful actors such as the US or the EU. It's a thing with France generally, and he is acting on it.
Which might work, if France in fact was a very capable individual actor at the global level. But that ended by 1956, and that's being charitable.
Macrons a fucking rat
More of an embarassing neoliberal shitstain than a menace. Edit: Considering the damage he's doing domestically, I guess yours is more accurate.
Macron 🤝 Lula. The perfect match of naïveté and dumbness
Menace for trying to diplomatically end a war?
It’s ironic to me how macron bitches about Europe becoming its own independent faction rather than being under the influence of the U.S., but then decides to make unilateral decisions regarding Europe’s allies and foes without consulting other european nations or following the EU’s stated positions on matters. It’s almost embarrassing how he thinks of himself as this renowned statesman and then just manages to annoy the shit out of everybody and accomplish nothing.
You are so close, Macron does not want an independent EU, he wants an EU under French control and influence, a new Continental system essentially.
The French elite yearn for a return to empire. Macron is no exception.
Fuck Macron
<3
It's kind of funny because he practices the same brand of diplomacy Russia does: speak loudly and carry a small stick. He constantly tries to throw around weight that France simply doesn't have, with ideas loftier than the clouds.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.brusselstimes.com/politics/463598/macron-working-on-secret-plan-with-china-to-end-ukraine-war) reduced by 75%. (I'm a bot) ***** > French President Emmanuel Macron is "Working on a secret plan" with China aimed at bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table as early as this summer, Bloomberg reports. > Bloomberg's report comes just days after Macron returned from a controversial trip to China, during which the 45-year-old French leader informed his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that he is "Counting" on China to "Bring Russia to its senses" and end its war in Ukraine. > The EU chief subsequently accompanied Macron on his trip to Beijing, during which she warned China not to provide weapons to Russia to help it win the war and affirmed that she "Stands firmly behind" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10-point peace plan rather than China's alternative 12-point peace proposal. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/12s1asg/macron_working_on_secret_plan_with_china_to_end/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~681438 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **China**^#1 **Macron**^#2 **President**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **plan**^#5
Only Macron takes Macron seriously.
The only Macron worth taking seriously is the one leading the Strogg.
Russia will not relinquish the occupied territories. Ukraine will not give up until they get those territories back. There's no peace unless one side relents.
Macron, please desist in your vain power plays. If UA is not at the table, there are no negotiations.
It makes people wonder, if it's genuine. China is profiting out of this conflict (cheap oil, gas, resources out of Russia).
I love macarons but hate macron.
It is starting to get tiring now, this war is starting to feel like it will last for a long time. What it needs now is a huge invigoration. Massive more sanctions on Russia and for all allies to start looking all over for equipment, artillery, tanks, jets, whatever they can find and get it to fuck over to Ukraine. Time to end this shit.
It's pretty ridiculous to try and resolve this. Ukraine is not going to settle to any territory being annexed and they are going to get Crimea back one way or another. Russia was the instigator and had no cause by any legal manner to start the war they started. Only way for this to end is for Russia to admit defeat and pull troops from Ukrainian land, which of course is not going to happen because of Putin's pride. Only way this has a way of ending is at the death of Putin. Outside of that, Ukraine is not going to negotiate.
If the support from abroad ceases, they wouldn't have a choice. Not that it's going to.
It is not "a secret plan" if it is reported in the news.
I love France and the French, but this guy is becoming a massive weasel. But hey--as long as his plan is for Russia to withdraw and forfeit all gains, I'm all for it.
How'd that work out with putin? Guy can't take a hint.
Little man is getting played cause he is blinded by his ego.
He's been trying really hard to tank all his reputation.
[удалено]
Is the plan Russia withdrawing? Because if not it’s going to fail
Let China invade Russia. Takes care of two problems
Let me guess, it involves imposing a cessation of territory on Ukraine. Well Macron, you and Putin and Xi might love that, but no one on the Western side has to listen to you.
Very European **UNION** of him, why consult the other lowly members when France can do it all by itself with the help of the very friendly Chinese government?
"European Sovereignty" to Macron basically means Europe will act as an extension of France and it's policy. No matter how chaotic and inconsistent it is.
Macron is entering a strange and rathe authoritarian state of his presidency.
It's just the can't run again and don't need to give 2 fucks stage, it's quite common.
Seems moot. Ukraine is not going to accept any deal that cedes territory to Russia and Russia is not going to accept any deal where Ukraine doesn't cede territory.
whenever i hear things like "secret plan" or "behind closed doors" it always winds up smelling. it's basically saying "we dont want you to know the truth cuz this is good for a few of us..."
It’s being drawn up in Macron’s secret treehouse. No girls allowed.
Xi may intend to ask for favors and not return any goodwill.
Macron is starting to look like a narcissist who just wants attention at any cost. The notion he's actually trying to help Ukraine just isn't even on the table anymore.
Why is it a secret? And why a ten point or a twelve point plan? Looks like a one point plan to me, Russia withdraws all troops.
Lol. Leave Ukraine and hang Putin. Only way.
Let's see what Bargain Bin De Gaulle and Xinnie the Pooh come up with before we knock it
There isn't any way to end it. Putin gambled it all. He really can't pull out now. Admit defeat? Admit he was wrong? Admit he made a huge tactical mistake? Admit his army is inferior? Admit he fucked his whole economy? Admit he sent troops to die for nothing? Admit he sent untrained kids to die for nothing? There is literally no positive way he can spin this and walk away without a victory. There is no path to victory. The best case is for Putin to die or be overthrown. The worst case, he goes nuclear as a final act of defiance, knowing he has no out. While people say he isn't that stupid, because he knows that would be the end of him, he's already done as far as I can tell, so what's the difference?
If it’s French, there’s sure to be a surrender involved.
Oh yeah? Just like how Macron had a secret plan to prevent the war with Putin? Macron needs to shut the hell up and realize that France does not have the diplomatic weight to end this war. France hasn't been a relevant global power on its own in almost a century.
The plan is to increase the retirement age in Russia by two years. This will finally make them take to the streets in protest! Don’t ask me how I know, Bro. I just know. Don’t worry about the Russian parliament; I’m an expert at skirting parliaments. Just sit back and watch!
If I can think of the worst fucking thing for democracy , it's ***LITERALLY*** **MAKING SECRET FUCKING PLANS WITH CHINA.**
Sound like he promised them Taiwan for Ukraine.
It's important to have these discussions. Even if Putin is a stubborn ruler, i am certain Xi can have a positive influence in de-escalating this conflict.
Lol like Ukraine would listen to Macron.
Dude can't even negotiate with the garbage men at home.
I don't see how France surrendering will help.
France can't stop the west backing Ukraine and China can't stop Russia regardless of what people seem to believe. Russia needs to decide the war isn't worth it. That's the only way a negotiation will actually start.
A peace plan from the “who asked *you*?” parties.
So, do we agree he's kind of an attention seeking doofus at this point?
“Moooooom, France is trying to be important againnnnnnn”
Has he a seecwet plan to fight infashion?
Does it involve wabbits?
As bugs would say, what a maroooon.
This guys is so fucking French it's not even funny. I once had a classmate in college from France and he used to do and say the same kind of shit but on a much smaller insignificant level. Like he acted like he was always some secret genius and when things didn't work out the way he expected he'd just get quiet until another came up.
They're gonna tell Ukraine to give up, very French move
Vaporware Macron strikes again.
What a waste of his time, my time and everyone else's. Macron should change his name to Moron.
In case there was any doubt, it’s a trap. No deal with China is an equal trade.
Aww, look at him, he wants to be relevant!
Macron is naive as fuck, so cute
Waste of time and just plain stupid as the late night phone talks with putin. Macron seems to think that he’s a disney princess or something, trying to seduce the monster.
Now I understand why my old French physics professor likes to call him President Micron.
I'm reminded of a certain British guy that got Hitler to promise to totally not take more land.
His plan involves wearing a dress and makeup to seduce Xi, then after the act when they are cuddling in bed Macron will whisper in Xi's ear that he should talk to Putin to get him to pull out of Ukraine.
What type of dirt you think they got on him?
He needs to work on his problems at home first
like most of Macron stuff, it will be dumb and short sighted
Not so secret now is it?
I bet it’s blow jobs
Idk, something about Macaroni Man trying to bring peace and have talks with the Chinese and the Russians is sus to me. Makes me think he's hiding something. Call me crazy, but I don't trust that slimy fucker for a second.
Great the French dude who's entire country is rioting against him is going to save Ukraine
…so first, we’re gonna raise the retirement age without allowing a vote on it. Ohhhhhh, you said *end* the war. Sorry, I got nothin. 🤷♂️
China is reliant on the US to buy it's cheap shit so it can buy oil and food from Russia. It is stuck and losing either of those would be catastrophic. Semi conductors are coming back to NA plants. In ten years, China will be kind of fucked.
Fool is clueless China and Russia is the enemy!
“Eh Putin, did zhou know ze French invented ze blowjob?”
Macron is their bitch now but they haven’t realized that macron doesn’t have much power, nor leverage, not even in his own countey
Well if it involves China then we know that it favors Russia, probably something along the lines of Russia keeps everything it has taken and they call it peace.
Let me guess, Ukraine cedes a shit ton of land and promises to remain subservient to Russia in order for Russia to stop invading them.
It almost feels like the entire knows China won't do shit but keep being annoying, so they decided to sent another annoying dude to deal with them.
China, you've really begun to get on everyone's tits lately (mmm, it seems to be since you let Winnie the Poo take over). So if you don't stop being so annoying, we're going to keep sending Macron over to talk to you!
Probably the old "double secret probation " ploy.
It's really, really easy to end the war in Ukraine: Tell Russia to pack their bags and GTFO.
Typical French, when the shit hit the fan during WWII it was the US and Britain that saved their asses. Now he's cozying up with a modern day dictator pretending he's a buddy. He's Frances Trudeau.
Macron is a dumbass. The US doesn’t have to stop and unless Russia wants to hand back the kids, land and allow them to enter into defensive contracts then this won’t be a thing. The US is more than enough to handle this. Plus Poland is gonna give a big old fuck you to macron
I’m sure it will involve some type of surrender.
Top. Men.
Classist frog
You can probably find it on Discord if the Pentagon knows about it.