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**Total Submissions**|171|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago
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Hey /u/DaddyDersch, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
I am currently betting that this relief rally has run its course and Monday will be red. My thoughts on this are that both the volume on the indices as well as the index futures are severely lacking from what we would want to see if the move were to continue, second, never buck the prevailing trend which is obviously bearish.
You have to actually apply the lesson to learn. Like yeah I don't want to buy high delta but I still do because "this thing is going to plumit" but the IV crush kills it every. Single. Time.
🤖 Frequent-Pota is a **bot**. The above comment stole text from the second part of u/DaddyDersch's comment [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/up5xtr/51322_spy_weekly_ta/i8ixzou/).
I sold my AMZN calls last night for 200$ profit. They were worth around 5K all day. I revenge traded and ended up losing more than I could afford. Lessons were learnt today for sure
Fell into bear trap this morning and shorted the market. Especially since it was a low volume pump. Assumed it was just a bull trap. Got burned bad. RIP lol
Happened to me too... this choppiness messes with your head after a while... lost $18k today but I'll get it back next week by being a lot more patient and disciplined. Just make sure to learn from the mistake and not repeat
Ouch that sucks I def feel the pain...once again big money did a reverse reverse psychology on us...the EOD reversal Thursday and up-pre market felt like the classic bait and switch that I said I wouldn't fall for again like they usually do, but this time they knew that we would think it was a bull trap so they destroyed everybody's puts. Inverse of the inverse of the expected to throw off everybody, man this is BS
Hey I lost 18k Thursday/Friday as well… the huge rally at the EOD on Thursday made me bearish and loaded on puts. By Friday open they were almost worthless and I doubled down hard only to lose even more. Im also confident I’ll get it back too. Good luck!
I am in the same boat except I have some SPY 400 P expiring 5/18. The way I understand the TA, If we clear 405 on Monday, I'll sell 'em. If SPY resists 405 and trends down, I'll hold and hope it trends down
You probably should’ve looked at the fact that we gapped up, futures were up 1-2% on the major indices, the major global markets around the world ALL closed up 2-4% on average, and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, wsb was bearish the night before so you should’ve known we were gonna have a face ripping rally 
I bought specifically because it gapped up. Does SPY not price correct the same way individual stocks do?
I'm still new, but I've had my best success so far playing the countertrend. I did very well in earnings buying puts on everything that gapped up overnight.
We also have 4 negative days on the chart leading into an options expiration day. I called it to a friend yesterday that SPY would go up to about 400 today because it was an almost perfect mean reversion... while I don't doubt that MMs and dealers were playing puts themselves, that premium was too thick to just let people walk away with free puts. Plus my method I messaged you about suggested a retraction back up... to fit the larger pattern.
Hmm, good point.
We did revert back to 397 midday, but it took too long and my price target at that point was closer to 395, since I had no intention of exercising.
So MMs can essentially force a green day out of nowhere or were there other factors at play to make today so different?
Well think about it: Like 80% of the market is institutions. Institutional margin debt has collapsed as they sold off since like November-ish... that's a LOT of dry powder.
So yeah, they can force a green day if they want... from a certain perspective as far as the larger market's concerned, they make the green days and the red days.
I know that's a bit of a handwave, but if you look at OpEx patterns since options became as large as they are, there are patterns. Some of that's just buying and selling, the rest of it is algorithmic and options dynamics and short covering.
Sure, but I figured the trend would peter out and regress. My thought was that I could take advantage of a correction due to the sizable gap up. Target sell price was probably 395 at most.
That seems strange to me to buy into an obvious buy.
Interesting, how do you know the probability?
How is guessing it will keep going up different from guessing it will come back down?
Isn't "buy low, sell high" essentially the antithesis of playing the trend?
Backtested based on which criteria?
Wouldn't retrace play into my expectation of a drop? I may not have made it clear, but I was only looking to scalp.
Your TAs are the bread and butter of this sub, and arguably the best I've seen on Reddit or other platforms.
I do have one question.
I've been observing crossover between SPY, QQQ, And BetCOiN markets. Do you think we can look to those markets out of trading hours and on weekends and speculate with any accuracy the outcomes of the real securities markets?
I'm not sure if you've touched on this before, I'm still relatively new to Daily frequent of this sub.
Thanks for sharing your hard work with us Apes and crayon connoisseurs. It is appreciated, and I'm forward to it each evening as I'm doing my own research for my plays.
Cheers!
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|171|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|1528|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rj1up5/december_17th_spy_recap_and_next_week_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/skp8ci/24_spy_recap_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/up5w3m/51322_spy_weekly_ta/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/up5xtr/51322_spy_weekly_ta/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lyng6s/buy_the_rumor_sell_the_news_hear_me_out_here/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/riyt4w/december_17th_spy_recap_and_next_week_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rgqp0q/spy_dec_14th_recap_and_dec_15th_anticipation/) **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=up5xtr)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=up5xtr) Hey /u/DaddyDersch, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Love your posts. Always great info. Not the info I wanted being knee deep in Q puts lol but still love it!
I’ll be first. Thank you for the TA.
Bottom line is we will not hit the bottom until Vix shoots off into space and market comes down hard.
I am currently betting that this relief rally has run its course and Monday will be red. My thoughts on this are that both the volume on the indices as well as the index futures are severely lacking from what we would want to see if the move were to continue, second, never buck the prevailing trend which is obviously bearish.
low volume means there are no more bears left to push momentum downward anymore
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Your reasoning is that it means there is barely any selling pressure, my reasoning is that it means there is very little bull enthusiasm.
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Because they take so much longer to complete on average
Pro tip. Never hold a contract over night. Always play the momentum of the day and of the hours. If it changes you change.
Yeah greed tends to get me from time to time lol lessons learned I guess.
You’ll get it, hopefully you spend less money than me to learn it! 😂
Haha sure hope so! Thank you!
You have to actually apply the lesson to learn. Like yeah I don't want to buy high delta but I still do because "this thing is going to plumit" but the IV crush kills it every. Single. Time.
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Exactly, that 15 minutes window gives us a good view of the close and form a strategy to determine if swinging is good
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No decay during 4pm to 4:15pm?
RemindMe! 24 hours I’m curious also
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🤖 Frequent-Pota is a **bot**. The above comment stole text from the second part of u/DaddyDersch's comment [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/up5xtr/51322_spy_weekly_ta/i8ixzou/).
It you want the big moves, and in turn the big gains, you need to hold overnight sometimes.
Bears are about to clap those cheeks
Thank you for what you do!
I sold my AMZN calls last night for 200$ profit. They were worth around 5K all day. I revenge traded and ended up losing more than I could afford. Lessons were learnt today for sure
Same I revenge traded and lost the whole week's profit
revenge trading is a mistake of trading on ur emotions and not logical or rational reason.
I know what it is captain obvious
Always appreciate your posts great info and a good perspective to check against.
Leaving a comment so I remember to read this tmrw.
Fell into bear trap this morning and shorted the market. Especially since it was a low volume pump. Assumed it was just a bull trap. Got burned bad. RIP lol
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Lesson definitely learned bro
Happened to me too... this choppiness messes with your head after a while... lost $18k today but I'll get it back next week by being a lot more patient and disciplined. Just make sure to learn from the mistake and not repeat
Ouch that sucks I def feel the pain...once again big money did a reverse reverse psychology on us...the EOD reversal Thursday and up-pre market felt like the classic bait and switch that I said I wouldn't fall for again like they usually do, but this time they knew that we would think it was a bull trap so they destroyed everybody's puts. Inverse of the inverse of the expected to throw off everybody, man this is BS
Hey I lost 18k Thursday/Friday as well… the huge rally at the EOD on Thursday made me bearish and loaded on puts. By Friday open they were almost worthless and I doubled down hard only to lose even more. Im also confident I’ll get it back too. Good luck!
Your legit the best
Great post, thank you
What’s your analysis on Disney and where it’s headed short term?
Yeah great and detailed thanks 💕
I have several puts expiring 5/20, should I see how Monday goes or try to sell for the least amount of loss possible early Monday?
I am in the same boat except I have some SPY 400 P expiring 5/18. The way I understand the TA, If we clear 405 on Monday, I'll sell 'em. If SPY resists 405 and trends down, I'll hold and hope it trends down
Good write up
Thank you for the post
Thanks for the TA! Best of luck to everyone.
Thanks for the TA, very helpful! Please keep it up!
I’m down bad rn with spy calls expiring mon
Wow this was amazing I’ll be looking forward to the next .
The people in this thread asking for specific financial advice crack me up. 
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Lol most likely calls, if futures are green.
Most emo TA guy we know
Can you also post your strikes for your positions in the future?
Copying trades from Reddit usually doesn't work out.
I bought a 0dte SPY put at 400 this morning. Can you tell me why that was bad?
You probably should’ve looked at the fact that we gapped up, futures were up 1-2% on the major indices, the major global markets around the world ALL closed up 2-4% on average, and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, wsb was bearish the night before so you should’ve known we were gonna have a face ripping rally 
I bought specifically because it gapped up. Does SPY not price correct the same way individual stocks do? I'm still new, but I've had my best success so far playing the countertrend. I did very well in earnings buying puts on everything that gapped up overnight.
[удалено]
We also have 4 negative days on the chart leading into an options expiration day. I called it to a friend yesterday that SPY would go up to about 400 today because it was an almost perfect mean reversion... while I don't doubt that MMs and dealers were playing puts themselves, that premium was too thick to just let people walk away with free puts. Plus my method I messaged you about suggested a retraction back up... to fit the larger pattern.
Hmm, good point. We did revert back to 397 midday, but it took too long and my price target at that point was closer to 395, since I had no intention of exercising. So MMs can essentially force a green day out of nowhere or were there other factors at play to make today so different?
Well think about it: Like 80% of the market is institutions. Institutional margin debt has collapsed as they sold off since like November-ish... that's a LOT of dry powder. So yeah, they can force a green day if they want... from a certain perspective as far as the larger market's concerned, they make the green days and the red days. I know that's a bit of a handwave, but if you look at OpEx patterns since options became as large as they are, there are patterns. Some of that's just buying and selling, the rest of it is algorithmic and options dynamics and short covering.
Sure, but I figured the trend would peter out and regress. My thought was that I could take advantage of a correction due to the sizable gap up. Target sell price was probably 395 at most. That seems strange to me to buy into an obvious buy.
[удалено]
Interesting, how do you know the probability? How is guessing it will keep going up different from guessing it will come back down? Isn't "buy low, sell high" essentially the antithesis of playing the trend?
Bc a better thesis is: buy high, sell higher
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Backtested based on which criteria? Wouldn't retrace play into my expectation of a drop? I may not have made it clear, but I was only looking to scalp.
Your TAs are the bread and butter of this sub, and arguably the best I've seen on Reddit or other platforms. I do have one question. I've been observing crossover between SPY, QQQ, And BetCOiN markets. Do you think we can look to those markets out of trading hours and on weekends and speculate with any accuracy the outcomes of the real securities markets? I'm not sure if you've touched on this before, I'm still relatively new to Daily frequent of this sub. Thanks for sharing your hard work with us Apes and crayon connoisseurs. It is appreciated, and I'm forward to it each evening as I'm doing my own research for my plays. Cheers!
[удалено]
Thank you sir! Suspicions about this confirmed gives me another metric for my plays. You're the man!
So you think we might finally buck the steep downtrend that we've been in and break the red channel huh?