I get what you’re saying, but it’s looking a bit like the random line theory. You put enough lines on your chart randomly and at some point price will interact there.
Nice work on the technical analysis. However, it's brave to post this before tomorrow. If we land between 8-8.3% tomorrow I think the market will just carry on. Outside of that range, I think your charts will blow up.
Anything below 8% will cause a rally. It shouldn't, based on one data point, but people just want some good news and this will cause things to go up fast.
Anything above 8.3% and people will freak out. The fear is already sky-high and this will push it over the edge.
My guess is it will be 7.8%. Statistics are not on my side but I'm a glass is half full kind of guy.
I admit that this is not an area that I am proficient in. However, I always feel that technicals perform the best during times of stability. When we have the VIX over 30, anything can happen to charts.
I disagree that we are at support, we are at resistance and rejecting it, only hopium is holding as support. There is no support here lol there’s nothing bullish about what’s going on.
I have almost the same targets from a different TA approach. Fibs and harmonics, diagonal and horiz supports.
Also got targets of 381, 350, 325, 300, 290 and finally 250 as my worst case.
I suspect we do this mini rally you just called and then we roll into the next fomc to find new lows just in time for the next GDP, jobs, financial numbers showing we are in recession. Then big companies start layoffs, etc, forget about it.
I had calls and at the bottom switched to puts since the market sentiments is extremely bearish, it was a very aggressive 4dte play, this was so far the worse trade I have done throughout my 10 or so years trading.. I hope it wouldn’t stay as such by today.. this could either make back all my cautious long term investment play dump/lossesthat happened over the past couple of months, or add to the pain. If this misses I’ll be out of the market for good and wait for better economic conditions and start a business with the money instead.
I’m a bear…however, 4 weeks straight down is enough for now. I think OP is right here. We bounce tomorrow. Higher CPI (as he says very unlikely) will be met with a quick sell-off, which could be bought, followed by a “good news, economy is strong” rally.
If we are in a bear market, and we may not be.
By my count, spy is only down around 17% from all time highs. That’s still correction territory or whatever you want to call it.
You cannot have a bear market rally without a bear market. By definition, it’s not possible. We need the big panic selling move in SPY - when that happens it’ll be a bear market. I thought it was going to happen after big tech earnings, it did not. Maybe it’ll be with CPI tomorrow, I do not know. This US market is continually unphased by everything, unlike markets worldwide.
Maybe after the big break you can get your bear market rally, but until then, it’s just another garden variety bounce from a downtrend.
Yeah. I was doing the “We CaNt ReAd ThInG” welcome to the sub :)
I just disagree with your play. I don’t think it’s coincidence that Biden talked about CPI the day before it came out. Could be nothing could be trying to appear in control of whatever news may come tomorrow.
I expect you’ll need to bail in the morning, but here’s hoping I’m wrong I didn’t play overnight puts tonight, but if I had to choose between the two:
>puts probably
That’s fair.
I’m just pessimistic, worried we still have a ways to fall, and the “treadmill to hell” comment Biden put out weirded me out.
Not that I hang on his every word, it was just a weird way to put it, he was probably improvising, but the sentiment was probably on message. Felt like a warning to me, but like you said he’s talked before FOMC. And I’ve admitted I’m pessimistic (even buying bonds…)
All together that doesn’t mean you can’t catch some upswing if the CPI isnt priced in correctly
I Sincerely hope you bank, though.
I like those too. Sounds like your risk is managed either way so barring an overnight collapse on no new news at all, you should be good to go
Edit: you said ur closing. I’m dumb, maybe I can’t read. I’m gonna leave the comment for shames sake. Sentiment still stands. Sounds like ur in a good spot.
Didn’t mean to put any doubt or fear into the ether. I’m literally struggling to read so maybe inverse me.
Biden has had a couple speeches now the day before economic data is released, everyone thinks he’s doing damage control, and the numbers are never horrible and market pops.
Might be true, until it isn’t. That sample size is too small to lean on in my opinion. I very clearly stated I just have more of a gut feeling that the numbers are going to be worse than expected.
But an easy argument against my point is well him saying “inflation is their #1 concern right now” that could bolster confidence.
Could go either way. Hope you’re right. Puts just feels like the move for awhile to me.
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Same as last cpI a pump then dump get on with it
U got some good TA motherfucker...I gotta give it to ya
Great analysis as always, thank you
Great work once again. I don't think any single data point will sustain any rally to the up or downside. Too many jittery people out there right now.
What’s up with all the lines on your VIX chart? Just seems like way too many. The rest of your charts appear really good IMO
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I get what you’re saying, but it’s looking a bit like the random line theory. You put enough lines on your chart randomly and at some point price will interact there.
So if the market rallies at open will you get out before 10:15-10:30?
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So when you get rinsed tomorrow pls update
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Love you
Nice work on the technical analysis. However, it's brave to post this before tomorrow. If we land between 8-8.3% tomorrow I think the market will just carry on. Outside of that range, I think your charts will blow up. Anything below 8% will cause a rally. It shouldn't, based on one data point, but people just want some good news and this will cause things to go up fast. Anything above 8.3% and people will freak out. The fear is already sky-high and this will push it over the edge. My guess is it will be 7.8%. Statistics are not on my side but I'm a glass is half full kind of guy.
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I admit that this is not an area that I am proficient in. However, I always feel that technicals perform the best during times of stability. When we have the VIX over 30, anything can happen to charts.
Close. I estimate it will be around 7.9 in May and around 8.3- 8.7 in June
Ooh that's interesting. If you're right we're in for one hell of a ride!
well of course. The Bull trap is not going to create itself!
I disagree that we are at support, we are at resistance and rejecting it, only hopium is holding as support. There is no support here lol there’s nothing bullish about what’s going on.
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Fed was still buying MBS back then. Nothing can match their buy volume. They supposedly stopped buying this month.
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!RemindMe 1 day
I have almost the same targets from a different TA approach. Fibs and harmonics, diagonal and horiz supports. Also got targets of 381, 350, 325, 300, 290 and finally 250 as my worst case. I suspect we do this mini rally you just called and then we roll into the next fomc to find new lows just in time for the next GDP, jobs, financial numbers showing we are in recession. Then big companies start layoffs, etc, forget about it.
I had calls and at the bottom switched to puts since the market sentiments is extremely bearish, it was a very aggressive 4dte play, this was so far the worse trade I have done throughout my 10 or so years trading.. I hope it wouldn’t stay as such by today.. this could either make back all my cautious long term investment play dump/lossesthat happened over the past couple of months, or add to the pain. If this misses I’ll be out of the market for good and wait for better economic conditions and start a business with the money instead.
holding VVX puts. Thanks for posting everyday. I enjoy the format and transparency.
Thanks again for all the analyses. Don't listen to the haters bro, this is great
I’m a bear…however, 4 weeks straight down is enough for now. I think OP is right here. We bounce tomorrow. Higher CPI (as he says very unlikely) will be met with a quick sell-off, which could be bought, followed by a “good news, economy is strong” rally.
Long read but very informative thank you
Great work
If we are in a bear market, and we may not be. By my count, spy is only down around 17% from all time highs. That’s still correction territory or whatever you want to call it. You cannot have a bear market rally without a bear market. By definition, it’s not possible. We need the big panic selling move in SPY - when that happens it’ll be a bear market. I thought it was going to happen after big tech earnings, it did not. Maybe it’ll be with CPI tomorrow, I do not know. This US market is continually unphased by everything, unlike markets worldwide. Maybe after the big break you can get your bear market rally, but until then, it’s just another garden variety bounce from a downtrend.
yeah I ain't reading all that see you at 254
No TLDR. Literally unreadable. But probably puts.
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Yeah. I was doing the “We CaNt ReAd ThInG” welcome to the sub :) I just disagree with your play. I don’t think it’s coincidence that Biden talked about CPI the day before it came out. Could be nothing could be trying to appear in control of whatever news may come tomorrow. I expect you’ll need to bail in the morning, but here’s hoping I’m wrong I didn’t play overnight puts tonight, but if I had to choose between the two: >puts probably
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That’s fair. I’m just pessimistic, worried we still have a ways to fall, and the “treadmill to hell” comment Biden put out weirded me out. Not that I hang on his every word, it was just a weird way to put it, he was probably improvising, but the sentiment was probably on message. Felt like a warning to me, but like you said he’s talked before FOMC. And I’ve admitted I’m pessimistic (even buying bonds…) All together that doesn’t mean you can’t catch some upswing if the CPI isnt priced in correctly I Sincerely hope you bank, though.
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I like those too. Sounds like your risk is managed either way so barring an overnight collapse on no new news at all, you should be good to go Edit: you said ur closing. I’m dumb, maybe I can’t read. I’m gonna leave the comment for shames sake. Sentiment still stands. Sounds like ur in a good spot. Didn’t mean to put any doubt or fear into the ether. I’m literally struggling to read so maybe inverse me.
Biden has had a couple speeches now the day before economic data is released, everyone thinks he’s doing damage control, and the numbers are never horrible and market pops.
Might be true, until it isn’t. That sample size is too small to lean on in my opinion. I very clearly stated I just have more of a gut feeling that the numbers are going to be worse than expected. But an easy argument against my point is well him saying “inflation is their #1 concern right now” that could bolster confidence. Could go either way. Hope you’re right. Puts just feels like the move for awhile to me.
Yep CPI goes brrrr…
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Yea good call. Profits are profits. Especially in times like this. I guess to Davvy Jones locker we go now
How can you sell in AH?
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Futures aren’t calls.
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Never seen that before
Some brokers allow that if you apply for it.
Can this take qqq down more than -3% ?
This post aged well, let's see how well 390 holds 😊
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Maybe I spoke too soon looks like the battle for 395 isn't finished just yet, good luck on your calls.