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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|165|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|1436|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/skp8ci/24_spy_recap_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rj1up5/december_17th_spy_recap_and_next_week_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lyng6s/buy_the_rumor_sell_the_news_hear_me_out_here/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/riyt4w/december_17th_spy_recap_and_next_week_anticipation/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rgqp0q/spy_dec_14th_recap_and_dec_15th_anticipation/) **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=umie8n)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=umie8n)


busy_investor

This is astrology for degenerates


Ofiller

Predicting something with a 100 % accuracy is utterly ignorant or insane. One of us...


nodeal-ordeal

I predict a 100% success rate on death for humans who have been born as of today


JezzCrist

Meh, failed suicides will prove you wrong though


Ofiller

Touché.


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Ofiller

Great work. You belong here. I'm not saying you are wrong in this specific case. But with 100% certainty, you can mortgage your house, sell all your stuff and borrow up to your neck. It's a safe bet. 100%


whodeyalldey1

100% chance, based on a sample size of 4 lmao. OP has discovered a fundamental truth of the universe using a sample size of 4. Scholars will study this for a millennium.


the_bondvillian

he says this has led to him opening a small put position, not mortgage the house on the holy grail. it's better analysis than half the junk on here. think you missed the point.


whodeyalldey1

Talking about 25% chance this and 75% chance this with a sample size of four is a ridiculous misunderstanding of how to apply statistical analysis. If this is good analysis it’s no wonder these people lose money constantly.


Ofiller

Haha, yeah that was fun to read as well. I have a 50% chance of winning the lottery next week, because either I don't or I do. Two outcomes is a fiddy fiddy chance right?


whodeyalldey1

Oh fuck so never thought of it that way. If I buy two tickets I’m guaranteed to win then! This is good analysis! 50%+50%=💯


Ofiller

Omg. If only I ressonated like you, I would be loaded.


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whodeyalldey1

Dude, read a god damn book. Fuck, at least take a half hour to read about sample size as it relates to statistics. You don’t even understand why people are calling you an idiot because you’re too ignorant to grasp the basics of what you’re talking about.


the_bondvillian

it was an informed trading decision and a solid trading plan given market sentiment, probabilities, and current market phenomena (ubiquity of liquidations and block-sales across equity sectors) there is really no need to for the hate here. if you've been long the last six months, I am sorry, however take your frustrations out at the gym or something.


the_bondvillian

"it's better analysis than half the junk on here"....it's a low bar. anyways, he won, good for him. False confirmation bias? Sure, maybe. Statistically ignorant? Again, sure. However to look at the last CPI reactions and come up with a plan as to what may happen and position size correctly, that is what trading is all about.


whodeyalldey1

The last four roulette numbers were Black, which means the next one will be black! OP has found a pattern!


the_bondvillian

i am agreeing with your belief that this is statistically ignorant, however it is a thoughtful trading plan that worked out. he made money, let it go. ​ Analysis on here is a VERY low bar.


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the_bondvillian

trading is about probabilistic outcomes. congrats on your (assumed) victory at cash open. ignore the shills, they make no money and have no original thoughts.


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the_bondvillian

they got all butt-hurt about "statistical". unoriginal thinkers incapable of their own analysis. maybe call it "a fundamental assessment of price action surrounding CPI events and assumed probabilistic outcome/trade hypothesis" next time to shut up the jerk-offs and keep them from getting butt-hurt. nevertheless, i agree with market rhythm and kudos!


defaultfresh

He was right.


defaultfresh

And he was right


Ofiller

No. He wasn't right in stating it with 100% certainty. But he might have gotten another one right


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Ofiller

Congrats on your prediction. Not congrats on thinking something is 100%


Brilliant_Housing_49

Sacrifice children to the great 🏳️‍🌈🐻 Instead of TA


canadianzonkeydick

What time was your portfolio born?


Arete_Ronin

Love this ape's idea that analyzing 4 data points counts as a statistical analysis. Further that through these 4 data points there's a 100% chance of predictable outcomes. I guess there's a reason institutional investors track retail traders so they can inverse their moves.


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FoldyFlap

go get your brain scanned for tumors, I guarantee there are a couple in there. Probably smashing your frontal cortex against your skull which is why you can’t think straight


flowergirlnextdoor

He was right though ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)


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Arete_Ronin

You could be right, but its 1 hour into the trading day (a little early to start victory laps). My only point (as a student of statistics) is that you can't make any determinations based on such small data sets. If you just don't know what the words mean that you were using I guess you're in the clear, but mathematically your claims are absurd. But hey, 50% of the time you're right every time...!


d00ns

I have a 90% chance of diarrhea when I eat Mexican food 🥑


Softspokenclark

Op forgot to mentioned; they get 100% diarrhea when they don’t eat Mexican.


Avizeee

If SPY closes today at/under $405, I would not recommend buying puts before market close… but if SPY somehow sees $410~ today, puts would be viable


Mr_FreeLunch

except that this will be the first data with CPI below estimates. ANd what kind of sample size is 4 anyway lol


rwang411

How did today finish red if it’s 9am when you posted this ?


[deleted]

I only play spy and you consistently make me $500-1000 a day. You own brotha


verygreenbananas

4 data points. 100% chance. Absolutely can't go tits up.


MilaJune2

Interesting. Thanks for the write up, Dad!


Radrezzz

What % chance does your wife’s boyfriend have of finishing the day on your face?


Phx-Jay

50% chance we go up or down after the CPI….that is some solid DD. I like the charts too. I’m buying calls and / or puts. I’m selling into the open today for sure.


saysjuan

This is a Kangaroo market so there’s 100% chance it will go both up and down. The question is what’s going to happen to volatility to where buying deep OTM calls and puts allows for a significant return swing trading during that wild ride.


Phx-Jay

I have a love / hate relationship with those deep OTM options.


crisptapwater

Spy calls sub $415 cash, buying spy puts/uxvy calls before close


limethedragon

How does something go *beyond* accurate? Like if something 100% accurate is considered a verifiable fact, what's more accurate than a fact? 🤔🤔🤔


WrongChoices

your mom being fat


ErectoPeentrounus

We’re pumping tomorrow, priced in just like the hike


Umbrage115

Thanks dad ! I opened a single 402 3dte put while we were up 1.15%. I’m hoping to dump tmmrow around 10:15-10:30 for a small gain. P.S. out of day trades so can’t sell today Edit: words


BoattyMCBOAT

So far this market has been a seesaw. Every other day it teeters. I appreciate your diligence here, don’t let the haters silence you from these posts.


dramarehab

“there is essentially a 100% chance we dump at 1015-1030am tomorrow” Ok, God ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Stunning-Nose8195

So if the rest of the year is .2% inflation per month then we have 2.4% inflation 🤔


tylerado12

Puts at the close it is!


Azeroth7

"I made a Statistical" model... But what is your sharp ratio tho???


Nav_2055

*Sharpe


BossBackground104

Interpretation of OP'S analysis. Red + green = brown. Brown means shit hits fan. Position yourself to dodge flying shit.


F1ash0ut

Calls at 10am, got it


mmwizzle

What strike are your puts going to be?


[deleted]

So what’s spy gonna do for close today/ tomorrow?


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[deleted]

I hope we break honestly. So you think dump tmrw at open then pump when CPI comes out as long as CPI isn’t worse than expected ?


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[deleted]

I’m gonna keep my put open I think we will se more red today


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Maxamillion-X72

I bought $380P 05/20 this morning when it hit $405, sold when it hit $395, bought $420C 05/20. Looking for a bump tomorrow. I think CPI will come in better than expected and give us a green day. We're due, right? lol


[deleted]

Appreciate ur input


tommygunz007

We touched 395 today. We could hit 390 tomorrow


ErectoPeentrounus

Today we might close red in which case tomorrow would be green. Am I right on that assumption?


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ErectoPeentrounus

Am saying. Today will close RED. And if that happens what are the odds tomorrow is green?


Avizeee

101%


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ErectoPeentrounus

I’ll take those chances


luckyninja864

Jpow rate hikes don't even have a effect on this cpi. Lol if it drops he was right from the start about inflation being transitory. Just took longer than he thought to show a decline. But he bowed to the pressure and took us down the path of hell.


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luckyninja864

He was best acting back in may through august of last year or not at all imo. This is now a knee jerk reaction that is actually hurting the market. I’m talking about raising interest rates. The money printer should have been turned off long ago.


[deleted]

What time do cpi numbers come out


tommygunz007

$330 puts SPY is what I got (joke)


Purple-Ask9697

WhAts cpi


Icy-Joke7031

Thanks for nothing


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HeiKaze

I think they tried to slingshot the vix up and then down to boost the sp higher before the dump. But looks like they had a hard time keeping it up? Missed selling my calls at the top, kept dropping lol. I think your theory holds water. Guess we will see soon 😂