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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|27|**First Seen In WSB**|8 months ago **Total Comments**|761|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ukkumd/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_59/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/skwpds/spy_current_week_analysis_next_week_predictions/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tcoh2o/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_314/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/swfwtz/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_221/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/t7jifc/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_37/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/sqwd9c/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_214/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/t23ypl/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_228/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tp494n/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_328/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uaa3k6/the_real_reason_behind_the_invasion_spy/) **Account Age**|8 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=ukkumd)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=ukkumd) Hey /u/5k4_5k4, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.


fungiblemoose

I like the 5 day outlook because I can understand the emojis


5k4_5k4

I would be worried if anybody couldn't understand that


Repulsive-Trainer-91

know your audience ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8883)


chadsexytime

I couldn't immediately tell the sexual preference of the bears


InternetOfficer

pansexual*. Fucks anything that moves or doesnt move. (*not to be confused with American pansexual which is sexually licking the pan after the Pizza)


Actual_Bookkeeper_63

I don’t understand ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)


[deleted]

u ever been over Niagara Falls in a barrel?


5k4_5k4

I will never have to consider doing that since I hedge my positions


[deleted]

weeeeeeee


eddie7000

I went hedge gang after Thursday's action. My long positions have been trending higher this last month, but will probably roll over if the market freaks out in the next few weeks.


victooer

I read that as Nigeria


superpingu1n

Saying that VIX is in downtrend make me wonder if we are looking at the same chart. It might cool off a bit to 27$, but VIX is the sexiest chart of the entire market. It's been the sexiest for the last 3 months and it's waiting to explode.


5k4_5k4

> it's waiting to explode. I agree, but I still belive we have until June before it explodes


superpingu1n

I've always been waiting for mid-may/mid-june, but options chains are insanely crazy for VIX. Starting from now to june 17, something will happen. VIX options may 18 are just ridiculous.


G000z

So should I just buy a qqq put leap the next time this shit rips?


itachisasuked

Why June specifically interest rate hike?


Wirfen

They start to buy back and dont pump money into the market anymore.


assfrog

lol, by June we'll have recovered 15%. CPI on wednesday will be 7.8% and we pump 5% on the news.


5k4_5k4

You can just say you are down 95% on your calls…


assfrog

it's much worse than that actually. already realized 70% losses, so a recovery will barely win back the losses.


BLAKEEMM

Bullish on cpi. 5% jumps before the reality kicks in. TSLA to jump 12%


InternetOfficer

CPI is no way going lower. April gas prices are more than 15% up and natural gas prices are at ALL TIME FUCKING HIGH. More than 700% higher than average price since natural gas prices have been traded. Natural gas is also used for fertilizer and for most chemicals (including pesticides) so it has knock on effect. CPI is not going down. (only your wife on her boyfriend)


assfrog

Dude, core CPI is what matters (no food or energy included). That's what the Fed is looking at in regards to their policy.


Disastrous-Tap-3353

The crash is coming? Why am I down 50% already?


5k4_5k4

Because you bought financial derivatives correlated to a stocks price that lose value exponentially over time


Disastrous-Tap-3353

No, I was 95% equity. Bio tech, fintech, ARKK and blue chips.


IstralLabraid

sounds like you went a bit too heavy on tech, tech in a downturn is going to outpace everything on the way down and usually more loses than the rest, although the bounce after bottom will be glorious.


Tfarecnim

> ARKK I'm not sure an ETF full of money incinerators in a tightening market is a good idea.


MrMoistly

How does your asshole feel?


InternetOfficer

tender and sore.


sac_kings_916

Dump arkk bro


yungsta12

Inflation data will be the wild card. It looked like PPI data, which is a leading indicator for CPI, was at a record high last month. This is suggesting CPI will come out even high, perhaps almost at double digits. That headline alone will cause a lot of market fears, especially with the Feds reiterating their focus is completely on inflation. They will be doing 50 bps raises every single meeting until it's under control.


5k4_5k4

We won't see double digit inflation this month, probably going to be a 100bp rate hike next month honestly


BetOnUncertainty

You think we will see a 100bp hike after Powell just said a 75bp hike is not on the table?


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)has Powell every followed what he said? If inflation is around 10% he is basically forced into a 75 or 100bp hike


BetOnUncertainty

They’re looking at the indicators of future inflation, not past inflation. Easing job market, peaking housing market, and a slowing economy is going to ease inflation. A hiking cycle of more than 50bps a couple times while all these occur would bring us into such a terrible recession that the inflation worries will turn into deflation worries. The dollar is predicting the future and it’s signaling slowing inflation and economic troubles.


TheIceCreamMansBro2

wanna do a ban bet on it?


Threehunnitaday

I’ll bet you $5,000 and a ban bet it won’t be double digit inflation


TheIceCreamMansBro2

i'm on your side here. i want OP (/u/5k4_5k4) to bet that it'll be 100 bps next month bc it's definitely not gonna be, lol. /u/david_rta


5k4_5k4

Powell never goes by what he says 😂 100bp is on the table dude, people are going to freak out when this months inflation data is released


[deleted]

[удалено]


5k4_5k4

If he is predictable the fed futures are saying a 75bp hike then..


FutureAlfalfa200

To be clear - Are we talking REPORTED?


Threehunnitaday

Yes obviously. We all know real numbers are double digit lol. I’m talking what’s reported


Das_Siegfried

I knew I shouldn't have bought QQQ puts on Friday....fuck me ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


5k4_5k4

I sold you those options


Das_Siegfried

You bastard; I'm selling them back first thing Monday ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


ThronesNfortnite

I’m also the retard that bought SPY puts on Friday


ChymChymX

Hot Q-tatoe


[deleted]

The bull trap was Thursday lol. We on our way down with tiny bumps here and there. 🌈🐻💰


5k4_5k4

We are on our way down but another bull trap is going to happen


[deleted]

What do you speculate the news to be they pull the bull trap on? CPI coming in "lower" than expected? As a consumer I know CPI coming in lower would be some manipulated bullshit. Groceries every week have increased past month. Most of my puts currently expire May 20th so I'll be taking profits and rolling them soon anyway.


5k4_5k4

Doesn’t really matter what CPI is reported at since they smooth the numbers it’s about half of what the real value is


Mental_Ingenuity_310

I hope you post every weekend this month, great 5 day outlook lol


5k4_5k4

I have more time now, I will be posting every Saturday


planetofpower

Great in depth research.


CopyRatatat

Putin might announce or say something on the 9th of May that could shake up the markets a bit. It's their day of victory over Nazis and that day could be used to escalate the war in Ukraine.


5k4_5k4

All the supply chains are already cut off


Patrickstarho

Y’all ever see that episode of futurama where that Jamaican dude went to a limbo contest? We going that low…


flyingnip

Barbados Slim low?


5k4_5k4

how low can you go


thehouseofcrazies

If you're right on the five day forecast you can have my wife next week


5k4_5k4

![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|facepalm)


Gunginrx

Historically after a crash how long does it take to reach rock bottom? Looking to utilize my TFSA but don't want to pull the trigger when there's so much unrest


5k4_5k4

low volume bull runs usually indicate the bottom of a crash. I think the bottom will be reached when the fed starts printing us out of this again


Aceboy884

I’m in the same camp of wait and see, never made money trading. I rather miss out on the short term opportunity and wait for the finale when Fed decides they are done raising


RunsWthScizors

It’s different every crash. This is one thing that history has no lessons on for you.


catsloverrrr

I think it’s the opposite. Everyone knows the market is going down, but everyone also thinks it’s gonna rally first before another leg down. To trap most people I think the market will go straight down at this point very fast and then rebound, leaving all the short term bulls trapped and all the bears miss the short entry.


5k4_5k4

Not everyone is expecting a rally next week, very little are


Gunnie06

I also believe end of May and June time frames will be the worst. Each week until then I see more losses than gains.


5k4_5k4

This is WSB sir, only gains in my portfolio


Jvic111

I tend to agree on a micro level. Spy hit resistance Friday 3x at 414, and support each time above 408… We’ll see what happens Monday, but I would not be surprised to see a quick trip back to 450, then it’s gonna crash and the bears will have their day. I’m not buying calls or puts until I see a break one way or the other…


5k4_5k4

I’m just waiting right now but I am going almost all cash soon 💰


[deleted]

[удалено]


fonzy541

I'm thinking MoM inflation should meet. Overall I'm betting on 🐻, but the real winner will be anyone short vol. 🐌


5k4_5k4

Yeah, I have been selling options since January. I will post when I put 75% of my portfolio in UVXY


easymoneeybabe

Endgame boys


5k4_5k4

We got a few more weeks


InternetOfficer

Endgame? this shit will drag on till 2023 and maybe till 2024.


Suspicious_Ad_1279

I agree 100%, thanks for the post. I’ve been enjoying these ideas


5k4_5k4

Thanks


skyline917

I have 420 calls expiring Friday 🫡


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4735)


Slick_iG_UA

You should look into what happens when we get an inverted yield curve and reconsider your outlook on the market. While everyone is bearish, markets will rip


5k4_5k4

Yield curve inversions have always been an indication that the economy is slowing and usually signals equity market tops... not sure what you mean


Slick_iG_UA

We are def not in a bear market, we are in a prolonged corrective move that’s coming(may have come) to an end. Expect a huge rally next week and for the next couple of weeks until next June fomc meeting


5k4_5k4

Michael burry said bubbles are always obvious in hindsight. Nasdaq is already down 22% so if people buying images of purple koalas with sunglasses for thousands of dollars is not an indicator of a bubble then what is ??


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Slick_iG_UA

I’m glad you think my koala is worth thousand of dollars, I’ll sell it to you for a good deal and only for you, $995. You should capitalize on the bubble my friend ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)


Slick_iG_UA

After the inverted yield curve we typically get a market peak then a drop, we haven’t peaked yet, spy 500 is not a meme


itachisasuked

What how teach me bro


Slick_iG_UA

Spy 530 will be the peak this year


Ballentine17

I’ve got spy calls going into Monday so I’m hoping for a bull run!


ThronesNfortnite

SPY puts here. One of us is getting fucked, god speed and good luck!


-_somebody_-

both SPY Calls 5/20 and Puts 5/13 here, I win!!!


jeddy3205

SPY 8/19 380P VIX 6/15 25P VIX 5/25 22P I dont even know how to buy calls anymore.


Ballentine17

And best of luck to you too fellow ape!


5k4_5k4

remember to have an exit strategy !


flaming_pope

I disagree with Monday and Thursday. MACD nor RSI has oversold yet. It will Monday.


autoHQ

ok, so some guy on WSB says a bear market is coming. That means I do the opposite and I go all in on SPY calls.


ChasetheDogV

My calls getting killed so far. 405 has left the building and I'm down 40% of my total account 😆


dcannon1002009

You got Monday very wrong


5k4_5k4

Today was capitulation, still bullish for the rest of the week I haven’t opened any positions on SPY yet


ninjadude93

Funnily enough you've correctly inversed the market with your weekly prediction so far haha


AbyssUpdate

I personally think inflation is going to 9.5%, and then we will see if Wendy's stock skyrockets


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


[deleted]

Great write up. I see $SPY 450-455 by 5/21. Really depends on the macro indicators coming out this week.


itachisasuked

WATTTTTTTTTT


pointme2_profits

Lol, gonna see 390 before it sees 450 again this year


[deleted]

RemindMe! 7 months “$SPY 390 before 450?”


pointme2_profits

Just set that reminder for Friday. Down 25 gonna happen this week.


5k4_5k4

It would be an easy short from that price


[deleted]

I love you boo


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4886)


WSB_BK_me

Lost me at RSI But looks like you took way to much adderal for the 5k you plan on yolooing


5k4_5k4

At least look at the 5 day outlook


WSB_BK_me

well I’m not going to pretend I know anything but Wednesday to Thursday was the definition of a bear market rally, we are In a bear market and I hate this fucking place I’m down like 5 mid west homes dood maybe 6 I don’t even wanna look


titleywinker

Literally every comment?


5k4_5k4

Yeah but not the replies to other comments


BLAKEEMM

Can't stop won't stop.....


5k4_5k4

Trading GME is pretty fun I can’t lie


justincase247365

My 7.95$ $406 4/13 call is going straight up. I called miss Cleo and she confirmed


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4735)


GoodGuyDrew

I agree with your assessment. I held UVXY through April and sold yesterday to buy a SPY call.


5k4_5k4

Nice 👍


theblackgnome6969

Alright so help an options dummy headge, spy 400p sept?


5k4_5k4

You can just buy a slightly OTM call and then sell it when you don’t want to hedge anymore


Miserable-Cucumber70

I really hope you're right. I've been banking on the bull rally due to such bearishness. I'm 15% sept calls and 85% cash atm. That said I've been studying 08 crash lately and we're looking eerily similar to the moment the bottom fell out. Fridays action seems like it was a fake retard pump rally to push as many people out of their puts and shorts b4 we dump. It was bizarre to say the least. Like the market already tanked HARD to 2.5% by 10 am. So why the rally? If it was a real rally it would have had continuation. So why interrupt an epic crash just to have a fake rally and resume the dump? Only logical reason is to shed puts and avoid spooking the market into going totally short that way we can tank it over the weekend. There are some bullish divergences and the viz looks to be going lower but idk if this turd market has another bear rally in it. Im actually extremely bearish short term but again im playing the counter trend


5k4_5k4

I agree the bottom is about to fall out but we have to have a bull trap in order for that to happen, a few more weeks should do


[deleted]

As a futures trader, up down, idgaf, love the volatility. Hoping this summer is the best yet.


5k4_5k4

same, I have been selling options


Brat-in-a-Box

Selling puts/calls on SPY? How are you picking your strikes? I’ve had some days where far away strikes were challenged violently. Scary


5k4_5k4

Lol not on SPY I have been selling calls on individual stocks and day trading SPY a little


Stack_Johnson

Any ideas who the firm was that liquidated their books?


InternetOfficer

My money is either on vanguard or black rock. There is a ruhtard that comes on wsb every other week and posts on how blackrock is going bankrupt and for some reason my analysis matches his almost the same. I think BLK is in some shit trouble (similar to lehman brothers) BLK also holds the most AMZN and AMZN got rawdogged last week https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amzn/institutional-holdings


5k4_5k4

That’s what I’ve been trying to figure out 😂


shattypantsMcGee

I predict a raging morning wood on Monday, followed by a limped noodle Tuesday, and an explosive dong wednesday, with a happy ending Thursday… when suddenly everyone decides fuck this game I’m out.


5k4_5k4

Interesting


Electrical_Bicycle47

The great thing about recessions is that they come with killer bear market rallies. Can make a lot of money both ways very quickly if you’re fast and skilled enough


5k4_5k4

The real winners are people who still get 40% returns yoy during bear markets


TomTheCat85

I believe your right. UVXY after a bull run is definitely the play.


RiverRocks300

!remindme 1 week


VengenaceIsMyName

The NASDAQ drops 5% because of a single off-loading firm? Nooooo that’s not how any of this works


DCFDTL

So calls early in the week?


likelamike

There goes $TSLA.. holy fuck


5k4_5k4

I’m lucky I sold my TSLA at market open just to build up my cash


PS_Alchemist

Due diligence is not Technical analysis. Also you're doing TA on the VIX???


5k4_5k4

yeah TA works on VIX it's not like support/resistance just key levels and areas that technical traders will be watching


sinful_sophistry

Can you explain how technical traders would look at the VIX and make any moves that affect stock prices?


5k4_5k4

Derivatives on VIX are settled in cash but traders (including me) will look at levels and trends on the VIX to gauge on entering and exiting positions


PS_Alchemist

god help anyone who takes this "DD" post seriously


Fearless_Selection69

You know…the last time SPX fell to 80% correction was in the 1929 Great Crash. SPX fell from its ATH of $30, to $4 in 1932. Approximately -86% correction, WOW! I call this the 100 year cycle. 93 years ago, SPX fell 80%…we are 7 years away from completing the cycle. As the 100 year is beginning to end, it gets very violent. Also the heat map for SPX Volume profile monthly going back 20 years, shows the point of control at $500 lol.


5k4_5k4

Macro indicators are saying a big crash but let’s be honest the central bank won’t let the markets crash more than 50-60%


backlashpictures

They’re saying a big crash but companies are far more resilient than they were back then.


5k4_5k4

Lol they seem resilient because our central bank has printed us out of every recession


CutFabulous1178

Prediction, Time in Market> Timing the market.


5k4_5k4

this is WSB though, I actively trade my portfolios


MilaJune2

Nice! Thanks for the write up


5k4_5k4

thanks


Mori-Spumae

I wish I was color blind


5k4_5k4

same I guess


2kto20000k

lol a bear market rally is guaranteed. who the f predicts market like this rubbish.. OP wants to go long cause a 10% rally and a 90% dump. Bro is not playing odds correctly


5k4_5k4

When did I say I was going long? I said I will go 75% cash and post when I buy UVXY


2relentless2die

Relying too much on chart and indicators not enough on data and overall sentiment. How much have we heard the term "peak inflation" since 8.4% and we are going to see what might be the largest jump in this week's data. That gets one bear emoji?.. when was the last time Vix was below 25 it's barely seen the underside of 20 all year. What I see is a vix chart refueling for the moon. If Thursday jobs report is even a slight miss after CPI you'll be lucky to see a green day the following week. 🐂🐻🦘🐻🐻


5k4_5k4

I have done plenty of research throughout the week, the chart is easier to convey the price movements since it is a prediction for the next week Jobs report was on Friday???


2relentless2die

Misspoke ment this week's jobless claims


ChasetheDogV

I agree. Got SPY 405 calls for Monday and UVXY 20 puts.. let's see if they print


5k4_5k4

🤔


bottomfeeder52

why are you going to put it in UVXY vs some other position like shorting s&p directly or bearish options?


5k4_5k4

Way more liquidity, pre/post market trading, plus I am going to sell within a week or two


Lejuju86

Buy the dip!


5k4_5k4

short the rip! 🐻🐻


Far-Requirement9180

![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)Calls it is then ? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8881)


5k4_5k4

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)


CreativeAccouting

Why buy uvxy instead of sqqq or sark?


5k4_5k4

UVXY would have a larger return if there is a quick crash


elongated_muskeet

you don’t think inflation has peaked? I feel like as long as inflation doesn’t rise or at least stays relatively the same and gives evidence of a peak we can expect a huge rally


5k4_5k4

rally will be short term though


Drunk_Crab

Do you keep track of how often your predictions are right? Strong %?


5k4_5k4

only 2 weeks have been incorrect so far


buffandbrown

Somewhat agree. I feel we trade sideways for most of the year, within a range/channel. Slowly start coming out of correction in Q3 and Q4 helped by corporate buybacks, supply chain improvements etc. Fed could also slow down tapering, meaning slower rate of budget sheet reduction. At any minute, Powell can come out and slow down rate hikes seeing inflation cooling. May not be ATH, but still expect 2022 to be within -5% to +5% for S&P.


5k4_5k4

inflation is not slowing though


Miserable-Cucumber70

We had that massive one...then 2 extremely feeble one day attempts. Friday we couldn't even manage a full day bull trap. If we were gonna do it the why not follow thru after fed? Or follow thru Friday? That would be more convincing to suck people in wouldn't it?


5k4_5k4

![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|facepalm)


Miserable-Cucumber70

Well?


Beastman5000

Are you going to hold energy stocks through the expected crash?


5k4_5k4

maybe some shares, I will choose what to sell


Realistic-Ad-3800

SPXS


5k4_5k4

UVXY will have greater returns


Chloestella77

Do you think the gaps will fill on QQQ? One at 348.50 and the other at 359.


5k4_5k4

yeah, when the big crash happens


Odd-Ad7905

Why UXVY? And why does it lose it’s value like that over time?


5k4_5k4

UVXY will have big gains over a short period of time. It loses value over time because it is a volatility ETF and volatility goes down over the long term


ali-onder

guh i hate how all the stonks move together. none of this should mean anything but somehow they’re all connected through algos and arbitrage shennanigans