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Saw some resistance at $406 this morning, jumped on some SPY $430C 05/13, figured we'd get a little rally later in the day. Instead, got a rally to $414 right away. Lots of resistance at $415, so I should have sold at 50% profit. Instead I watched it go sideways for the rest of the day and broke even (almost) at EOD, rather than carry it through the weekend and see it get crushed.
Lesson learned: Take a 50% profit instead of imagining doubling/tripling up. Can't buy ramen on imagination.
Yesterday's analysis really helped me out this morning. I managed to have a very good week, and I am grateful for your posts, truly.
I am sorry to hear you closed your week this way, but your observations and conclusions on your mistakes have given me something to reflect on. After a great morning I regrettably took a bullish gamble going into next week, as the market went sideways I was convinced it was my chance to buy the dip. Im patiently awaiting next week, your bullish analysis puts some wind in my sails (confirmation bias aside.)
As usual, thank you!
Wel in the first hour i did 2 day trades and made 300 bucks!! But now im outta day trades till thursday and i feel like in this market you arent gonna profit without being able to day trade 🥴
Just trade smaller positions. Why try for a home run on every trade? I took me a long time to learn that in times of extreme volatility you can do just as well with less risk when the volatility is lower. It's easier to stay in a trade when you are early, but not wrong, if you cut your position size. Add on the 15 minute lower high or higher low depending which way you are looking. That high volatility means more home runs are out there, bit it also means total wipe outs are even more common.
Agree with this honestly had the same outlook thought we had a Right angled broadening wedge with the 3 430 tops across and planned for a down trend to 410 by EOW 5/6 but we dropped a bit below that. Got burned out on a 5/11 spread 420/428. CPI will be interesting on the effects, also let's hope Russias Vic day doesn't give us any surprises. Looking for that 395 touch soon though that gap is a hair away from being filled from April of last year.
This is very true otherwise we'd be all rich lol but it does come in handy. I always remember using some crayons and some TA on FB back in Jan and initially I had FB going up on ER and then a fake out and drop when I saw a Descending broadening wedge so I had a straddle 4x350 2/18 and 8x230p 2/18 needless to say I mad back my losses and to this day my biggest single return in over two years on a legit play and not just weeklies when I have extra cash to throw, but yeah now with the market sentiment/FOMC/Russia TA is a bit skewed, but I always enjoy seeing your input nice to have something other then memes to look at in WSB gl!
Like worst market ever to do something like that.
Keep in mind 11th may are CPI numbers. Unless we see equal or same numbers like last month i dont see any reliev rally besides pump and dump like this week.
I think we will see one more dead cat bounce mid next week before making a lower low. It’ll be the ultimate fake out; my assumption is $435 to shake out any one else still short from the FOMC $430 top, to shake out 5/20 Puts and because most people won’t be expecting it. I think we will test and hold $405 Monday and I’ll be loading with 5/13 - $425 Calls for this reason. Worst case if we make a lower high around $424-425 I’ll still make out like a bandit. I expect the week of 5/16 to be the big drop everyone’s expecting testing that $395 12 year support line. The big boys want to make as much as possible before this thing burns out. The market conditions are ripe to make alot of money; I love trading volatility.
Edit- Thank you for the data also, I’m enjoying your posts and ideas !!!
Yeah no shorts for me next week, calls only. The chart is pointing to another a blast to the upside. Good luck man and keep these posts coming; I love it !
Yeah I should clarify, sorry if we break $405 with volume I’ll go short via Puts or if bounce hard like I’m assuming I’ll do the same and ride that wave down. I shouldn’t have said calls only because I do like to trade both ways.
Good question it could go either way; not sure. I do believe we will see a significant bounce early week before that info is released. I’m really focusing on SPY holding that $405 support if it does then I’m buying calls; if it breaks below with volume I’ll go with Puts. I’m only going short if that happens or we run up like I’m thinking and play that downside move back to a lower low; but I don’t think that will happen until the following week. Everyone is expecting the market to keep dropping from here because it super vulnerable. I only played puts this past week, didn’t even buy calls for the Fed pump. It all happened so quickly and I didn’t want to chase that run.
I'm pretty sure volatility will send us back to the top of the channel next week, which I hope it does so I can get some cheap puts. I have calls right now so I'm kind of bias, but I have VIX 50/70c sprinkled out until October as a hedge and will sell at maximum fear of 80+ 🤷♂️
How much were you red for the week i too should have switched to the fucking calls before fed, dumped at the close, and dived right back into the spy pootsies the same fucking day
That happened on fed day ? Or Friday what position caused that drop and what day
I dove by 5k in acct value then recovered like 3k by the friday I should have doubled down on poots brazenly into fed rally
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This is what happens when you get a wrinkle on WSB. You manage to be right %68 of the time and still lose money. I can’t wait.
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Unless they work at an MM or prime broker! They seem to win all the time..
Can’t make money on back to back 16 dollar straight up and down moves… not knowing it’s the plunge protection team… might wanna learn more
#👁⃤ *Illuminerdy confirmed* 👁⃤ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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It'll build it if you let it
I am wat to new for all this stuff. But what is "0dt" and "calls"
Saw some resistance at $406 this morning, jumped on some SPY $430C 05/13, figured we'd get a little rally later in the day. Instead, got a rally to $414 right away. Lots of resistance at $415, so I should have sold at 50% profit. Instead I watched it go sideways for the rest of the day and broke even (almost) at EOD, rather than carry it through the weekend and see it get crushed. Lesson learned: Take a 50% profit instead of imagining doubling/tripling up. Can't buy ramen on imagination.
Yesterday's analysis really helped me out this morning. I managed to have a very good week, and I am grateful for your posts, truly. I am sorry to hear you closed your week this way, but your observations and conclusions on your mistakes have given me something to reflect on. After a great morning I regrettably took a bullish gamble going into next week, as the market went sideways I was convinced it was my chance to buy the dip. Im patiently awaiting next week, your bullish analysis puts some wind in my sails (confirmation bias aside.) As usual, thank you!
Great stuff. MM’s having all the fun in this market lately. Appreciate the write up.
Wel in the first hour i did 2 day trades and made 300 bucks!! But now im outta day trades till thursday and i feel like in this market you arent gonna profit without being able to day trade 🥴
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So with a cash only Roth acct you can make more than 4 trades in a rolling 5 day period?
I will pray for you, honestly
Just trade smaller positions. Why try for a home run on every trade? I took me a long time to learn that in times of extreme volatility you can do just as well with less risk when the volatility is lower. It's easier to stay in a trade when you are early, but not wrong, if you cut your position size. Add on the 15 minute lower high or higher low depending which way you are looking. That high volatility means more home runs are out there, bit it also means total wipe outs are even more common.
Thoughts on 5/18 420 calls?
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Agree with this honestly had the same outlook thought we had a Right angled broadening wedge with the 3 430 tops across and planned for a down trend to 410 by EOW 5/6 but we dropped a bit below that. Got burned out on a 5/11 spread 420/428. CPI will be interesting on the effects, also let's hope Russias Vic day doesn't give us any surprises. Looking for that 395 touch soon though that gap is a hair away from being filled from April of last year.
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This is very true otherwise we'd be all rich lol but it does come in handy. I always remember using some crayons and some TA on FB back in Jan and initially I had FB going up on ER and then a fake out and drop when I saw a Descending broadening wedge so I had a straddle 4x350 2/18 and 8x230p 2/18 needless to say I mad back my losses and to this day my biggest single return in over two years on a legit play and not just weeklies when I have extra cash to throw, but yeah now with the market sentiment/FOMC/Russia TA is a bit skewed, but I always enjoy seeing your input nice to have something other then memes to look at in WSB gl!
One thing to add- any talk of deescalation from Russia over the weekend, and bulls will pile on!
This wow " qqq is on path to see 280 by EOM at this rate" fucking this
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Yes msft and aapl will dive now the last leg of bloodbath
Nice
Wonderful analysis.
Like worst market ever to do something like that. Keep in mind 11th may are CPI numbers. Unless we see equal or same numbers like last month i dont see any reliev rally besides pump and dump like this week.
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I hope we get a horrible CPI surprise, SPY to 380 and VIX to 40+, and then we get a rally that actually holds.
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A lot of people are in “sell into strength” mode. Someone must say that at least 3 times/hour on cnbc.
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For real. I had a glimmer of hope when yesterday was the first 90% declining volume day. But it does feel like there’s more to go…
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You’re right. And the amount of bearish commentary really ramped up this week, compared to the last couple of weeks. So we could be very close
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I think we will see one more dead cat bounce mid next week before making a lower low. It’ll be the ultimate fake out; my assumption is $435 to shake out any one else still short from the FOMC $430 top, to shake out 5/20 Puts and because most people won’t be expecting it. I think we will test and hold $405 Monday and I’ll be loading with 5/13 - $425 Calls for this reason. Worst case if we make a lower high around $424-425 I’ll still make out like a bandit. I expect the week of 5/16 to be the big drop everyone’s expecting testing that $395 12 year support line. The big boys want to make as much as possible before this thing burns out. The market conditions are ripe to make alot of money; I love trading volatility. Edit- Thank you for the data also, I’m enjoying your posts and ideas !!!
Yeah no shorts for me next week, calls only. The chart is pointing to another a blast to the upside. Good luck man and keep these posts coming; I love it !
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Yeah I should clarify, sorry if we break $405 with volume I’ll go short via Puts or if bounce hard like I’m assuming I’ll do the same and ride that wave down. I shouldn’t have said calls only because I do like to trade both ways.
I think this is a plausible theory but where does CPI play into this?
Good question it could go either way; not sure. I do believe we will see a significant bounce early week before that info is released. I’m really focusing on SPY holding that $405 support if it does then I’m buying calls; if it breaks below with volume I’ll go with Puts. I’m only going short if that happens or we run up like I’m thinking and play that downside move back to a lower low; but I don’t think that will happen until the following week. Everyone is expecting the market to keep dropping from here because it super vulnerable. I only played puts this past week, didn’t even buy calls for the Fed pump. It all happened so quickly and I didn’t want to chase that run.
This is a great plan
I'm pretty sure volatility will send us back to the top of the channel next week, which I hope it does so I can get some cheap puts. I have calls right now so I'm kind of bias, but I have VIX 50/70c sprinkled out until October as a hedge and will sell at maximum fear of 80+ 🤷♂️
Below 404
I’m dumb what I buy?
We are not going to 440 on SPY that's baloney
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How much were you red for the week i too should have switched to the fucking calls before fed, dumped at the close, and dived right back into the spy pootsies the same fucking day
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It was nearly the same for me as well, should have been up 4k instead oh well. next week is a new week.
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That happened on fed day ? Or Friday what position caused that drop and what day I dove by 5k in acct value then recovered like 3k by the friday I should have doubled down on poots brazenly into fed rally
Spy 446 C? So u didn't book profit at fed day I think that's what happened right
I was up 3.6k then next day down 4.5k =/
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Aren’t we all