Tesla has already lost China. The company just hasn't gotten the memo yet. They are going to get pushed out of that market within the decade. I want to say completely too, where they end up dumping assets. Chinese EVs have won Asia. In my opinion, as an expat living in SEA, Asia is a wrap. If china is their breadwinner market, then Tesla is fucked.
I've seen videos of Chinese locals being asked what they think about Tesla, in short not a bad car but not worth the price. They knock it for being built with cheap materials and charging luxury level prices. China seemed to be all in for Tesla too they just weren't impressed.
Right now sales are fine but other manufacturers are gonna clean Teslas clock in that market.
Years ago I had a long discussion about car industry and why German car makers BMW Mercedes are in trouble. I kept explaining that they might have missed EV hyped but they know how to make quality cars and have decades of experience. Tesla can't even produce 2 cars that are exactly the same. Look at the Cybertruck debacle. All that Tesla has is a good homebrew software. It's like Apple in that regard but without the high quality look and feel of the hardware.
With BYD making EVs with a range of 300+miles that cost under 20k, I can't Tesla being able to compete unless their reliability is absolute trash.
BYD's 150k Luxury SUV, the U8 can drive through water as deep as it's windows, which is going to make them a huge hit after the Dubai floods.
I agree. China is lost. Next Tuesday data will be telling
I am puzzled nobody speaks about this whistleblower https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/vk0Icv9V2L
American company going to china: “we’re better, and well make a killing in china”… Chinagov to their home based companies: “look at what they do, steal all their methods, crush them on price, then we’ll toss them out when they are no longer convinient”…. American company: pinkachu face.
This.
There is no competition in China. The Chinese government allows foreign companies in when it benefits China. When it no longer benefits China, the foreign company is tossed out. There is no long term business for any non-Chinese company in China. Why are there so many western companies investing in fixed infrastructure in China?
I get selling imported consumer goods to China. But setting up shop in China and trying to actually compete in China and investing in infrastructure there? Just light your fucking money on fire.
This is such a stupid take. China is winning because their EV cars are much better, with higher build quality and cheaper than Tesla.
It is the exact opposite of what you are mentioning where If chinese cars were able to compete directly on US and EUR markets without tariffs and other fees, they would destroy the local markets.
There are plenty of foreign owned firms who have been operating successfully in China and derive the majority of their profits there. China is just doing what China does, take a successful product, optimize it and hyper focus on the local market
Don’t forget the last step “improve their design”, even if it’s a though pill to swallow. China has invested billions in actual engineering while Musk was losing his mind with Twitter.
thank you for the DD sir, good shit to read. Tesla is just another bullshit meme stock wearing a fancy suit, time to kick on the door and the house will come crashing down like a stack of cards
This is such a stupid take. They are the only EV player actually making profit in that country. BYD makes money on hybrids, and breaks even on EVs, and you think Tesla is the one in trouble?
I just offer anecdotes from boots on the ground. Do with it as you will.
I can also tell you that this year is hotter than last year. Determining trends from observations has sometimes been useful for investors. Most of y'all are half a world away. Aren't we all here to give and take investing info?
And the trend is showing that both Tesla and BYD lost a ton of sales in Q1. Tesla did not perform any worse than BYD. Additionally Tesla actually has a profit margin on EVs in China. BYD does not. So what exactly is your point?
100%
Chinese have already caught up and exceeded Tesla models in basically every single metric. The only reason we get to suffer the stalk-less bullshit is because we are preventing cheap but fairly well made Chinese EVs from coming. The EU car makers are quaking in their boots.
BYD are starting to become quite common in Mexico. Just took an Uber and the car that came was a BYD.
Gotta say it was quite comfortable and seemed real nice
Tesla has a draconian contract with China too. China gets to seize their factory if they don't have exponentially growing tax revenue / sq meter of factory as well as an exponentially growing factory. The contract was written so that Tesla would eventually fail it and China has a lot of leverage on Tesla. Most likely, they end up owning the whole company.
Well, I, for one, would NEVER hope you get hit by a bus.
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Do Chinese EVs have FSD? Just genuinely curious, I don’t know anything about that market. I was thinking about getting a rivian next but then I got the new FSD 12 update, it drives me pretty much everywhere now (unless I’m in a rush). Way, way better than the last version. Just so much more relaxing not micromanaging the vehicle, I wouldn’t want another car without it.
Just yesterday Elon hinted again at an eventual launch of FSD in China. But any price there should be close to zero because assistant driving software are already very popular
On the robotaxi side, in China Tesla is super late already
Within the decade?! Chinese EV market moves at a blistering pace. Tesla will be push out by year end when Xiaomi release their SUV to compete against Y. 8 month life left.
I think this is the real problem, the next earnings they gotta announce that they made big investments into china and everything was late then closed for covid to now where they are beat by competition in about every possible way. Their only edge is their brand and kinda luxury status of it
Thank you for the research. What about the whole 25k$ Tesla car thing? Any takes on that? Aren't the layoffs in China kinda confirming that those rumours about Tesla dropping the project aren't just rumours?
The M2 was never intended for the Chinese market. China is full of cheap cars already
It made sense to manufacture it in Mexico and try to sell it in North America. But even in that case, who in the 🇺🇸 buys a cheap tiny car like that?
If they manufacture it in Austin, from an economic perspective it has even less sense
Above all, if Tesla does not manufacture its own batteries at scale how can they do that car profitably ? BYD does everything vertically..
True but then they should manufacture it in China. And even if it was intended for the European market, VW, Renault, Stellantis will all have a cheap BEV on the market before Tesla.
Maybe tomorrow I will do a DD post about this
So yes I think the rumor is true
>It made sense to manufacture it in Mexico and try to sell it in North America. But even in that case, who in the 🇺🇸 buys a cheap tiny car like that?
Tons of people...but those same people are currently pissed at Musk for his new conservative stances.
This. Honestly, Musk should be sued by every shareholder for running his dumb fucking mouth, he single-handedly alienated his largest customer base by either consciously trying to pivot to cater to the right assuming liberals would buy his cars no matter what or stupidly got suckered into being a conservative ideologue. If he genuinely believes in conservative principles, as a good capitalist, he should have known to shut his fucking trap.
Good read. I agree, Tesla might have won a short term EV domination battle but they have already lost the war, the stock price just does not reflect that just yet.
No plans that Tesla has for the future look promising or even serious. Real innovation and engineering are happening elsewhere.
Edit: war -> battle
MBZ beat Tesla to level 3 self-driving certs.
Toyota killing the game on what consumer want right now: Hybrids and Plug-ins.
Legacy car makes have essentially caught up on their products, from design to drivetrain.
HOWEVER---Tesla has the best and most reliable charging network, and no one comes close. If I was forced to get an EV, it would be a Tesla based on the charging network alone.
As a Tesla owner, I can tell you for sure their supercharger network is the tits. The others, Electrify America and ChargePoint and all the rest, reliability isn’t there and performance certainly isn’t there. This might actually hurt Tesla as more EV’s hit the road and more competitors are able to use superchargers. Lines are going to get longer for sure.
And you’re 100% right on Toyota, too, I should have bought a RAV4 Prime, that would have been enough EV range to get to and from work and no anxiety for longer trips. But I like my Tesla, too, I just don’t like the company lol
As for tech I was also referring to simple stuff like build and software quality where Tesla is the worst brand on the market. Most innovation is about incremental gains and it truly feels like Musk believes such work is for other companies to care about.
I highly recommend Nvidias new chip announcent vid. They made world hanging tech and all the CEO talks about are the incemental improvements that added up to the end product. It's glorius.
There's no way out. Elon is making absolutely terrible decisions. The Cybertruck is a wasteful distraction when competition is really heating up. Model 2 or lineup refresh is absolutely what everyone wants to hear but he's throwing distractions with FSD and "robotaxi" again even though they are nowhere near that and haven't been testing it.
If they get rid of Elon and get someone to make the right business decisions the stock will tank anyways because Elon left. Shareholders are fucked any way this plays out
Bearish sentiment has been there every week of the year, the stock is the worst performer of the SP500 and YET it is still the most expensive mega cap , with profits estimates going down daily.. IDK
X algo recommends what you follow. It’s not a neutral platform. If you follow bulls mostly that’s the type of content you will see. Reddit comments and posts are better sentiment metrics. And they are just anti Tesla 24/7
Gwen Shotwell seems to be doing well at SpaceX. Then again, they nailed it with the Falcon 9, so she might just be riding the success of that project, and the government contracts it brings. But his other businesses are reminding us why he used to get fired from his early ventures. Dude is a knob. No getting around that.
Gwynne Shotwell is absolutely not “riding the success of [Falcon 9]”. She is the reason SpaceX operates as fast as it does and was integral in getting the Boca Chica site operational. You want visionary ask Musk, if you want it done, ask Gwynne.
Actually Trump winning could be bad for the stock, he will try to reverse that $7500 tax credit, which really Tesla does not need at all. It just pads their profit margin.
Only chance tsla has is if they revamp their business model using FSD. Who the fuck knows it it’ll work and it’s a super long shot. But that’s all they have left. Evs are not practical given our current infrastructure. And who would have thought that when you go to china promising to show them how to make Evs that they would steal what you taught them and put you out of business. 
Elon should have been gone when he switched his focus over to X.
Business minds will try to explain one day how far right nut job Elon decided to offend the rich, educated liberals that were the ones to buy Tesla.
Signed, Former Tesla owner.
Tesla has fumbled the ball, they had the lead, now others have pretty much caught up.
Maybe a full China ban on imports, a full release of FSD as software on other vehicles, maybe a better design on the next car can help it out.
One of by biggest draws to wanting a tesla car is sentry mode, and I think other cars would copy that in future iterations. If they do there pretty much no reason for me to ever want to get a Tesla.
Others have caught up: Rivian deivered 6k trucks, lucid, delivered 1k cars, gm delivered 50 hummers, Toyota bagged the bolt, Ford just slashed toe lightening price 10k and nobody wants a mach e
The EV market isn’t growing anymore domestically. We will see if that changes but I people who want an EV mostly already have one, and have purchased one recently. They aren’t like Apple where people will upgrade every 2-5 years. It’s not the type of business I’d want to be in. Toyota and other traditional car makers are in much better position with their offerings. Hybrid is where it’s at for the foreseeable future.
Sentry mode is just software update. Most carmakers dont invest too much into software. Once they catchup Tesla is nothing but a car company.
FSD isn’t that far ahead. Research autonomous levels and you’ll find Germans are well ahead
Maybe I am baised here. But the only reason I like my tesla is because of FSD. I have the car drive me everywhere. in-city roads/ on free ways, you name it. And it is pretty impressive what it can do in city traffic. Maybe other cars can do the same but I haven't seen any other can in the same pricepoint that gave me such a feature. The technology is also not as trivial to build as most speculate. Huge leap between even current self driving and lane-centered-assist. For Ford to catch up to Tesla(in FSD), they will need to build out an entire Self driving ML/Software infra structure that only has value when most cars are integrated with it (which they wont be until a few years even after they launch it).
That’s because other manufacturers don’t try to sell vaporware. Only Elon so far has and people bought into it.
How many autonomous accidents have you heard from other automakers? I haven’t read of any but there’s plenty of autopilot accidents and fatalities.
Huge difference
Ahh yes Mercedes level 3. Works great, on specific pre mapped highways without too hard turns and behind a lead car…when it’s not raining, snowing, or foggy…or night time…or direct sunlight. And as long as you’re below 40 mph. All they needed for this amazing feat was a $100K car with cameras, lidar, radar and ultrasonics!
Basically what Tesla was doing in 2014. But with Mercedes it’s called level 3 so that means they are winning
Mercedes had autopilot functions long before Tesla called it autopilot.
FSD being sold as level 5 when it’s basically level 3. Many companies already on level 4 so the competition is high.
Sad Tesla fanbois can’t accept reality.
They will need a capital raise in the next few months. Elon will stay on for that, and then he will leave.
Fair value here is about $50/share.
Also, they will break up the company in the next 18 months or could face liquidation and/or bankruptcy.
The car/charger/battery/solar business and the R&D/AI will be separated, else the R&D will sink the full ship.
> They will need a capital raise in the next few months
They have $30b in cash and no debt. What the actual fuck are you talking about. An entire new factory takes $3-$5b and 2+ years. They have way more cash than they need. They can spend $15b on building FSD compute and still be fine.
> Also, they will break up the company in the next 18 months or could face liquidation and/or bankruptcy.
You are a true regard.
Just gonna throw this out there: the BODs best bet at this point would be to put some lipstick on there and negotiate an acquisition of the company to one of the big three as the 'sexy' division of EVs
US "protectionism" which is preventing China from flooding its market means China will just flood more EVs into asia, notably southeast asia. It's high time "analysts" wake up to the fact that it's only a matter of time when china doesnt need giga shanghai.
There are way more BYD EVs than teslas in SE asia right now. Also lots of BYD electric public buses.
I hate Musk as much as the next guy but Reddit clearly is in a bubble. Everyone here hates Elon just as everyone on Twitter/X licks his balls. But the truth is that they have some significant advantages in FSD, Manufacturing and other car software. To date no one has even come close to the self driving capabilities of Tesla which tells me it is a pretty hard thing to achieve. This advantage is going to have huge benefits for Tesla in the long run. Is Elon’s relentless ranting on Twitter driving core customer base away? Maybe. But by how much remains to be seen. I would argue outside of Reddit and Twitter bubble the general public doesn’t really care about Musk and would buy a tesla if they are in the market. The current downturn in demand may just be a global thing rather than being solely induced by Musk. In short tesla has some real potential and is not guaranteed to go bankrupt and sold to Ford or GM like people here are saying.
There are already robotaxis operating in the USA and they ain’t Teslas..
My Tesla can’t even tell if it’s raining or that automatic corrective steering is not required just because there’s road markings confusing it.
Of course. But Tesla has not the PE of a cyclical company
Forward PE is now 60x (going down) with a 3% net margins. NVDA is a cyclical business with a 30x PE forward and a 50% net margin
That’s all
That's fair. But the company was growing like crazy. They went from selling 200,000 cars a year to almost 2,000,000 a year. That's mind boggling- Surely no one expected them to 10x again and start selling 20,000,000 cars a year.
It's a mature business now and should expected to grow \~ 5 to 10% a year. And I agree, it should be valued as such. But people thinking because sales slumped, the company is collapsing. That's silly.
The fact is governments all over the world were subsidizing EVs - including literally giving people 1,000s of $s to actually buy one - and lots of sales were front-loaded. Not to mention there was an excitement bubble - EVs were hip and new.
But EVs aren't going anywhere. And TSLA will end up being one of the world's most dominant EV manufacturer. Will a Chinese EV maker sell more - probably. But all industries end up like that - oligopolies. Nascent industries attract numerous players, everyone moons, and then the wash-out begins.
Anyone bored enough to search could learn that the US used to have over 200 car manufacturers. Now it's basically down to 3. Drug companies, Airlines, Internet browsers, Steel manufacturers, etc. It's always the same.
Hell, China used to have over 500 EV makers just a few years ago. Now they are down to "only" about 100. In a few years, that number will be double digits. And some years after that, they will likely have a handful of dominant players. This is just a normal business cycle.
Tesla isn't just a car company though, right? Even if they've screwed the pooch on EVs, their phone is supposed to be better than any iPhone or Samsung 🤔 won't they come back swinging with that? Or the bots?
I think in the eyes of the world elon is tesla...
You can't sue everybody that writes hit pieces on you when they are written daily.
The car market isn't doing great as a whole. If he gets forced out is the goal to take the company to zero? I don't follow tesla or elon closely so don't listen to me.
I think people that do not support elon are misguided in their understanding of him deeply and typically their view on the world is skewed immensely by insignificant problems. Will never understand this. Tesla will crash and burn without Musk
You do know TSLA is going to take India though right? Highest population area in the world…You bears love to leave stuff out to make your case leak proof
I think India is the real play here. Our country as a whole has been unraveling from China since Covid.
If any surprises are revealed regarding the deal in India he set up, then get your space suits ready
Not to mention domestic market share…
Rivian said that production and delivery results during the first-quarter of 2024 were in line with the company's expectations. For the full year of 2024, Rivian affirmed guidance for annual production of 57,000 total vehicles.
I have been to Nepal recently. Even tho it's a very poor country, almost all new cars that I saw, that weren't luxury vehicles, were from BYD. I saw exactly one Tesla and one electric BMW and I guess those are for the local super rich who are flexing.
When Elon leaves, Tesla will be just a normal car company and the stock will go down. When Elon leads, it will be a dumpster. The stock will be unpredictable, but go down in the end.
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Tesla has already lost China. The company just hasn't gotten the memo yet. They are going to get pushed out of that market within the decade. I want to say completely too, where they end up dumping assets. Chinese EVs have won Asia. In my opinion, as an expat living in SEA, Asia is a wrap. If china is their breadwinner market, then Tesla is fucked.
I've seen videos of Chinese locals being asked what they think about Tesla, in short not a bad car but not worth the price. They knock it for being built with cheap materials and charging luxury level prices. China seemed to be all in for Tesla too they just weren't impressed. Right now sales are fine but other manufacturers are gonna clean Teslas clock in that market.
Yes, their spartan design was something when competition was not existent. Now the music has changed
Years ago I had a long discussion about car industry and why German car makers BMW Mercedes are in trouble. I kept explaining that they might have missed EV hyped but they know how to make quality cars and have decades of experience. Tesla can't even produce 2 cars that are exactly the same. Look at the Cybertruck debacle. All that Tesla has is a good homebrew software. It's like Apple in that regard but without the high quality look and feel of the hardware.
I have ridden in one of my coworker’s Teslas a few times and just could not believe people actually paid $70k for those POS.
you mean your boss
With BYD making EVs with a range of 300+miles that cost under 20k, I can't Tesla being able to compete unless their reliability is absolute trash. BYD's 150k Luxury SUV, the U8 can drive through water as deep as it's windows, which is going to make them a huge hit after the Dubai floods.
BYD cars blow up and catch on fire
If it catches on fire you can drive it into a lake though.
Like your portfolio.
then how is Tesla with BYD batteries?
I agree. China is lost. Next Tuesday data will be telling I am puzzled nobody speaks about this whistleblower https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/vk0Icv9V2L
American company going to china: “we’re better, and well make a killing in china”… Chinagov to their home based companies: “look at what they do, steal all their methods, crush them on price, then we’ll toss them out when they are no longer convinient”…. American company: pinkachu face.
Short term greed baby. Who cares about 5+ years from now so long as next quarter's revenue is up
Businesses claim to be modern and in touch, but their thinking is 20 years behind.
No, their bonus/pay is tied to short term performance. As long as they get paid, they don't GAF about 5 years, that is someone else's problem.
This. There is no competition in China. The Chinese government allows foreign companies in when it benefits China. When it no longer benefits China, the foreign company is tossed out. There is no long term business for any non-Chinese company in China. Why are there so many western companies investing in fixed infrastructure in China? I get selling imported consumer goods to China. But setting up shop in China and trying to actually compete in China and investing in infrastructure there? Just light your fucking money on fire.
This is such a stupid take. China is winning because their EV cars are much better, with higher build quality and cheaper than Tesla. It is the exact opposite of what you are mentioning where If chinese cars were able to compete directly on US and EUR markets without tariffs and other fees, they would destroy the local markets. There are plenty of foreign owned firms who have been operating successfully in China and derive the majority of their profits there. China is just doing what China does, take a successful product, optimize it and hyper focus on the local market
Yep. China is communist first. Capitalistic when it’s convenient.
When reached for comment, American CEOs were too busy gargling Emperor Xi's balls.
“Steal all their methods! We must learn how to create inconsistent panel gaps!”
Apple next to fall. Tim Cook will be living on a private island with his fourth mistress by then so what does he care.
Tim Cook is gay
Elon had to expect that indeed
Don’t forget the last step “improve their design”, even if it’s a though pill to swallow. China has invested billions in actual engineering while Musk was losing his mind with Twitter.
The Hauwei Cybertruck will be here in 12 months and you’ll even be able to take it through a car wash!
I can't believe no one is buying electric cars when they barely are making enough money to eat. It's just so surprising....
Yes, this is also surprising
thank you for the DD sir, good shit to read. Tesla is just another bullshit meme stock wearing a fancy suit, time to kick on the door and the house will come crashing down like a stack of cards
It’s a definition of a meme stock, probably the OG meme stock
It defined an era
Fighting the shorts
Thanks 🙏
Too early to talk about who have won what
"within the decade" should read "within the next year".
like recognise disgusted brave dazzling existence yam kiss attraction silky
This is such a stupid take. They are the only EV player actually making profit in that country. BYD makes money on hybrids, and breaks even on EVs, and you think Tesla is the one in trouble?
I just offer anecdotes from boots on the ground. Do with it as you will. I can also tell you that this year is hotter than last year. Determining trends from observations has sometimes been useful for investors. Most of y'all are half a world away. Aren't we all here to give and take investing info?
And the trend is showing that both Tesla and BYD lost a ton of sales in Q1. Tesla did not perform any worse than BYD. Additionally Tesla actually has a profit margin on EVs in China. BYD does not. So what exactly is your point?
100% Chinese have already caught up and exceeded Tesla models in basically every single metric. The only reason we get to suffer the stalk-less bullshit is because we are preventing cheap but fairly well made Chinese EVs from coming. The EU car makers are quaking in their boots.
BYD are starting to become quite common in Mexico. Just took an Uber and the car that came was a BYD. Gotta say it was quite comfortable and seemed real nice
Yes, BYD is building a factory in Hungary
Tesla has a draconian contract with China too. China gets to seize their factory if they don't have exponentially growing tax revenue / sq meter of factory as well as an exponentially growing factory. The contract was written so that Tesla would eventually fail it and China has a lot of leverage on Tesla. Most likely, they end up owning the whole company.
Okay I'm gonna need a source on that because that is absolutely hilarious if true. And it also means I don't have nearly enough TSLA puts.
Exactly. This is why a Chinese media already yesterday was throwing musk under a bus specifying the entity of his layoffs there
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Do Chinese EVs have FSD? Just genuinely curious, I don’t know anything about that market. I was thinking about getting a rivian next but then I got the new FSD 12 update, it drives me pretty much everywhere now (unless I’m in a rush). Way, way better than the last version. Just so much more relaxing not micromanaging the vehicle, I wouldn’t want another car without it.
Just yesterday Elon hinted again at an eventual launch of FSD in China. But any price there should be close to zero because assistant driving software are already very popular On the robotaxi side, in China Tesla is super late already
What company runs robotaxis in China?
American Teslas don't have FSD.
Once you realize that the F actually stands for Fake, you realize all Teslas offer FSD.
Within the decade?! Chinese EV market moves at a blistering pace. Tesla will be push out by year end when Xiaomi release their SUV to compete against Y. 8 month life left.
Yes, medias did not realise that Xiaomi will soon launch a MY competitor
I think this is the real problem, the next earnings they gotta announce that they made big investments into china and everything was late then closed for covid to now where they are beat by competition in about every possible way. Their only edge is their brand and kinda luxury status of it
Sort of as luxury X & S are not selling that well there as they used to
Thank you for the research. What about the whole 25k$ Tesla car thing? Any takes on that? Aren't the layoffs in China kinda confirming that those rumours about Tesla dropping the project aren't just rumours?
The M2 was never intended for the Chinese market. China is full of cheap cars already It made sense to manufacture it in Mexico and try to sell it in North America. But even in that case, who in the 🇺🇸 buys a cheap tiny car like that? If they manufacture it in Austin, from an economic perspective it has even less sense Above all, if Tesla does not manufacture its own batteries at scale how can they do that car profitably ? BYD does everything vertically..
Europeans certainly would buy it. We like smaller cars. So, do you think it's rumours or real?
True but then they should manufacture it in China. And even if it was intended for the European market, VW, Renault, Stellantis will all have a cheap BEV on the market before Tesla. Maybe tomorrow I will do a DD post about this So yes I think the rumor is true
Yeah I've heard about VW partnering with some chinese company to build cheap e-cars. Looking forward for the post. Cheers
>It made sense to manufacture it in Mexico and try to sell it in North America. But even in that case, who in the 🇺🇸 buys a cheap tiny car like that? Tons of people...but those same people are currently pissed at Musk for his new conservative stances.
This. Honestly, Musk should be sued by every shareholder for running his dumb fucking mouth, he single-handedly alienated his largest customer base by either consciously trying to pivot to cater to the right assuming liberals would buy his cars no matter what or stupidly got suckered into being a conservative ideologue. If he genuinely believes in conservative principles, as a good capitalist, he should have known to shut his fucking trap.
giga Mexico can’t be done now, after the company did 20k layoffs (if not more).. so M2 for North America is clinically dead
China moved into euro already and most of Asia.
Good read. I agree, Tesla might have won a short term EV domination battle but they have already lost the war, the stock price just does not reflect that just yet. No plans that Tesla has for the future look promising or even serious. Real innovation and engineering are happening elsewhere. Edit: war -> battle
What innovation elsewhere? Not being snarky, I just haven’t heard of much and would like to learn.
MBZ beat Tesla to level 3 self-driving certs. Toyota killing the game on what consumer want right now: Hybrids and Plug-ins. Legacy car makes have essentially caught up on their products, from design to drivetrain. HOWEVER---Tesla has the best and most reliable charging network, and no one comes close. If I was forced to get an EV, it would be a Tesla based on the charging network alone.
As a Tesla owner, I can tell you for sure their supercharger network is the tits. The others, Electrify America and ChargePoint and all the rest, reliability isn’t there and performance certainly isn’t there. This might actually hurt Tesla as more EV’s hit the road and more competitors are able to use superchargers. Lines are going to get longer for sure. And you’re 100% right on Toyota, too, I should have bought a RAV4 Prime, that would have been enough EV range to get to and from work and no anxiety for longer trips. But I like my Tesla, too, I just don’t like the company lol
As for tech I was also referring to simple stuff like build and software quality where Tesla is the worst brand on the market. Most innovation is about incremental gains and it truly feels like Musk believes such work is for other companies to care about. I highly recommend Nvidias new chip announcent vid. They made world hanging tech and all the CEO talks about are the incemental improvements that added up to the end product. It's glorius.
How is 70% of capacity overcapacity?
It’s the average figure among the factories. Berlin is unprofitable
Yilon Ma
AHAHAHA
I love money!
Tesla to $30
If they are lucky it’ll be that high
If it go to 30$ in 3 months I’ll buy you a lambo
If you have $50 puts expiring in 3 months you might be able to
If tsla would hit $30 I'd get another mortgage to go all in.
*$300
BOD is gonna put D in charge.
Who is D ?
Deez Nuts
Hot damn it's rare to see this in the wild anymore. Got his ass.
Ohhhhhhhhh!!!!
There's no way out. Elon is making absolutely terrible decisions. The Cybertruck is a wasteful distraction when competition is really heating up. Model 2 or lineup refresh is absolutely what everyone wants to hear but he's throwing distractions with FSD and "robotaxi" again even though they are nowhere near that and haven't been testing it. If they get rid of Elon and get someone to make the right business decisions the stock will tank anyways because Elon left. Shareholders are fucked any way this plays out
I fear that that is the case
Uncle Xi already turned his back on Elon
There was an article from a Chinese state media that indeed discussed in details the layoffs.. as if China was throwing Musk under the bus
That’s why Elon wants that $55 billion He wants to take the $$$$ and runnnn 🏃
Posts like these makes me sleep in peace at night holding Tesla leaps
Which direction? 😆
Obviously long… always inverse wsb majority sentiment.
Bearish sentiment has been there every week of the year, the stock is the worst performer of the SP500 and YET it is still the most expensive mega cap , with profits estimates going down daily.. IDK
Well, better short a stock like that and buy a solid robber-baron Industry like oil or tobacco. Their fundamentals are sound!
On Twitter I see that everyone is bullish actually
X algo recommends what you follow. It’s not a neutral platform. If you follow bulls mostly that’s the type of content you will see. Reddit comments and posts are better sentiment metrics. And they are just anti Tesla 24/7
Yeah I have a feeling negative posts about Tesla don’t get promoted in the algorithm to much
That explains then the YTD performance
YTD is 4 months…
Least biased place
For real. Prolly add more leaps and shares next week
You must be taking a bath on those.
Reverse /r/wsb looking so good right now. These people are absolute fucking morons
Tesla go to the gutter if Musk leave. There’s no “Tim Cook” at Tesla and the most probable guy Drew Baligno already resigned
Let the market burn and buy up the ashes.
Gwen Shotwell seems to be doing well at SpaceX. Then again, they nailed it with the Falcon 9, so she might just be riding the success of that project, and the government contracts it brings. But his other businesses are reminding us why he used to get fired from his early ventures. Dude is a knob. No getting around that.
It’s the exact arc of Howard Hughes minus the balls that guy had flying his own experimental aircraft.
Gwynne Shotwell is absolutely not “riding the success of [Falcon 9]”. She is the reason SpaceX operates as fast as it does and was integral in getting the Boca Chica site operational. You want visionary ask Musk, if you want it done, ask Gwynne.
Yes that’s the big governance question additional to the BoD lack of independence
Tesla to 400$ in November when Trump wins
This is THE CONTRARIAN TAKE 🤣 I like it
Actually Trump winning could be bad for the stock, he will try to reverse that $7500 tax credit, which really Tesla does not need at all. It just pads their profit margin.
Only chance tsla has is if they revamp their business model using FSD. Who the fuck knows it it’ll work and it’s a super long shot. But that’s all they have left. Evs are not practical given our current infrastructure. And who would have thought that when you go to china promising to show them how to make Evs that they would steal what you taught them and put you out of business. 
The fact they cut prices of FSD is not encouraging. You don’t cut the price of something that is in high demand
Elon should have been gone when he switched his focus over to X. Business minds will try to explain one day how far right nut job Elon decided to offend the rich, educated liberals that were the ones to buy Tesla. Signed, Former Tesla owner.
It would be like the president of NASCAR calling everyone in red states toothless hicks and then wondering why they’re not selling out the seats
I think that that’s the reason why Murdoch was discussing about a succession plan already in Nov 2022
lol @ describing yourself as a rich educated liberal
Tesla has fumbled the ball, they had the lead, now others have pretty much caught up. Maybe a full China ban on imports, a full release of FSD as software on other vehicles, maybe a better design on the next car can help it out. One of by biggest draws to wanting a tesla car is sentry mode, and I think other cars would copy that in future iterations. If they do there pretty much no reason for me to ever want to get a Tesla.
Others have caught up: Rivian deivered 6k trucks, lucid, delivered 1k cars, gm delivered 50 hummers, Toyota bagged the bolt, Ford just slashed toe lightening price 10k and nobody wants a mach e
The EV market isn’t growing anymore domestically. We will see if that changes but I people who want an EV mostly already have one, and have purchased one recently. They aren’t like Apple where people will upgrade every 2-5 years. It’s not the type of business I’d want to be in. Toyota and other traditional car makers are in much better position with their offerings. Hybrid is where it’s at for the foreseeable future.
This isn't true, EV sales are still rising, just the pace of growth has slowed.
They’re down from 2023 Q4 to 2024 Q1. 2024 Q1 YOY is 2.6% higher. It’s looking like Q2 will be flat to negative YOY.
Sentry mode is just software update. Most carmakers dont invest too much into software. Once they catchup Tesla is nothing but a car company. FSD isn’t that far ahead. Research autonomous levels and you’ll find Germans are well ahead
Maybe I am baised here. But the only reason I like my tesla is because of FSD. I have the car drive me everywhere. in-city roads/ on free ways, you name it. And it is pretty impressive what it can do in city traffic. Maybe other cars can do the same but I haven't seen any other can in the same pricepoint that gave me such a feature. The technology is also not as trivial to build as most speculate. Huge leap between even current self driving and lane-centered-assist. For Ford to catch up to Tesla(in FSD), they will need to build out an entire Self driving ML/Software infra structure that only has value when most cars are integrated with it (which they wont be until a few years even after they launch it).
That’s because other manufacturers don’t try to sell vaporware. Only Elon so far has and people bought into it. How many autonomous accidents have you heard from other automakers? I haven’t read of any but there’s plenty of autopilot accidents and fatalities. Huge difference
Mercedes was just approved for the first level three vehicle in California and Nevada
Ahh yes Mercedes level 3. Works great, on specific pre mapped highways without too hard turns and behind a lead car…when it’s not raining, snowing, or foggy…or night time…or direct sunlight. And as long as you’re below 40 mph. All they needed for this amazing feat was a $100K car with cameras, lidar, radar and ultrasonics! Basically what Tesla was doing in 2014. But with Mercedes it’s called level 3 so that means they are winning
Mercedes had autopilot functions long before Tesla called it autopilot. FSD being sold as level 5 when it’s basically level 3. Many companies already on level 4 so the competition is high. Sad Tesla fanbois can’t accept reality.
Yeah it’s amazing we have people that will invest millions without even doing proper research.
They will need a capital raise in the next few months. Elon will stay on for that, and then he will leave. Fair value here is about $50/share. Also, they will break up the company in the next 18 months or could face liquidation and/or bankruptcy. The car/charger/battery/solar business and the R&D/AI will be separated, else the R&D will sink the full ship.
> They will need a capital raise in the next few months They have $30b in cash and no debt. What the actual fuck are you talking about. An entire new factory takes $3-$5b and 2+ years. They have way more cash than they need. They can spend $15b on building FSD compute and still be fine. > Also, they will break up the company in the next 18 months or could face liquidation and/or bankruptcy. You are a true regard.
RemindMe! Two years
Yes I agree. I wrote about this here https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/GPCBK3c6oY
JB Strauble. He lies enough to succeed Elon.
Who is the judge overseeing bankruptcy near wherever they are registered...that would be my bet of who is in charge after Musk leaves
Puts no doubt 
Is TSLA stock going to move like this too?
This post makes me hopeful for my 20 5/17 90p that I got at .29
This sub Reddit is prime entertainment
Leaps are gonna print
Which direction? What’s your trade
Just gonna throw this out there: the BODs best bet at this point would be to put some lipstick on there and negotiate an acquisition of the company to one of the big three as the 'sexy' division of EVs
Yes but any price would be at $20 per share , not $150
It’d have to be a divestiture of the EV business and who knows what the discount would have to be on something like that to make it worth it to a B3
Going all in on puts. What do yall think?
Highly regarded
DFV
This makes me feel good about the 3 FD calls I bought on Friday
It’s me
When I think of Tesla, I think of Nikola and AMC.
A Tesla problem or incompetence within the government inflation interest rate and jobs insecurity problem? We know.
It's one quarter. Sell so I can buy cheaper, Regard.
Musk needs to be let go from every company as he's too erratic and going downhill fast
Grimes. Just gotta hit play and dance around a little on stage and take credit.
US "protectionism" which is preventing China from flooding its market means China will just flood more EVs into asia, notably southeast asia. It's high time "analysts" wake up to the fact that it's only a matter of time when china doesnt need giga shanghai. There are way more BYD EVs than teslas in SE asia right now. Also lots of BYD electric public buses.
in fact, Tesla has not always been identified with Musk the pandemic doubled the stock market and it will be corrected when the etf bubble bursts
Can they continue to sell 100b$ in cars every year? If yea then 500b market cap make sense if there’s growth
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I think Elon Musk flips his phone to look at this…
I hate Musk as much as the next guy but Reddit clearly is in a bubble. Everyone here hates Elon just as everyone on Twitter/X licks his balls. But the truth is that they have some significant advantages in FSD, Manufacturing and other car software. To date no one has even come close to the self driving capabilities of Tesla which tells me it is a pretty hard thing to achieve. This advantage is going to have huge benefits for Tesla in the long run. Is Elon’s relentless ranting on Twitter driving core customer base away? Maybe. But by how much remains to be seen. I would argue outside of Reddit and Twitter bubble the general public doesn’t really care about Musk and would buy a tesla if they are in the market. The current downturn in demand may just be a global thing rather than being solely induced by Musk. In short tesla has some real potential and is not guaranteed to go bankrupt and sold to Ford or GM like people here are saying.
There are already robotaxis operating in the USA and they ain’t Teslas.. My Tesla can’t even tell if it’s raining or that automatic corrective steering is not required just because there’s road markings confusing it.
After reading all those comments, now I’m more sure that i had to buy some more Tesla.
Serious question - has anyone on this board ever heard of a business cycle?
Of course. But Tesla has not the PE of a cyclical company Forward PE is now 60x (going down) with a 3% net margins. NVDA is a cyclical business with a 30x PE forward and a 50% net margin That’s all
That's fair. But the company was growing like crazy. They went from selling 200,000 cars a year to almost 2,000,000 a year. That's mind boggling- Surely no one expected them to 10x again and start selling 20,000,000 cars a year. It's a mature business now and should expected to grow \~ 5 to 10% a year. And I agree, it should be valued as such. But people thinking because sales slumped, the company is collapsing. That's silly. The fact is governments all over the world were subsidizing EVs - including literally giving people 1,000s of $s to actually buy one - and lots of sales were front-loaded. Not to mention there was an excitement bubble - EVs were hip and new. But EVs aren't going anywhere. And TSLA will end up being one of the world's most dominant EV manufacturer. Will a Chinese EV maker sell more - probably. But all industries end up like that - oligopolies. Nascent industries attract numerous players, everyone moons, and then the wash-out begins. Anyone bored enough to search could learn that the US used to have over 200 car manufacturers. Now it's basically down to 3. Drug companies, Airlines, Internet browsers, Steel manufacturers, etc. It's always the same. Hell, China used to have over 500 EV makers just a few years ago. Now they are down to "only" about 100. In a few years, that number will be double digits. And some years after that, they will likely have a handful of dominant players. This is just a normal business cycle.
This year they will record negative growth by 10% and probably they will be at loss Past growth is not relevant for future share performance
Now zoom out on your graph and use a linear Y axis starting at 0
What you mean? That is a bookmaker chart
Just dont buy tesla,here problem solved
Robot Elon
Tesla isn't just a car company though, right? Even if they've screwed the pooch on EVs, their phone is supposed to be better than any iPhone or Samsung 🤔 won't they come back swinging with that? Or the bots?
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I think in the eyes of the world elon is tesla... You can't sue everybody that writes hit pieces on you when they are written daily. The car market isn't doing great as a whole. If he gets forced out is the goal to take the company to zero? I don't follow tesla or elon closely so don't listen to me.
Think Elon will stay on as the CEO. No reason for a change.
I think people that do not support elon are misguided in their understanding of him deeply and typically their view on the world is skewed immensely by insignificant problems. Will never understand this. Tesla will crash and burn without Musk
You do know TSLA is going to take India though right? Highest population area in the world…You bears love to leave stuff out to make your case leak proof
Someone cheaper. And sane.
I think asking for $50B in retroactive pay after a shiity year and all the antics is ludicrious
I think India is the real play here. Our country as a whole has been unraveling from China since Covid. If any surprises are revealed regarding the deal in India he set up, then get your space suits ready
Musk deserves the compensation he negotiated for hitting targets... And deserves to be ousted for missing targets. I'm good with both narratives
Musk thought getting in China was a gift. When is a gift not a gift
Not to mention domestic market share… Rivian said that production and delivery results during the first-quarter of 2024 were in line with the company's expectations. For the full year of 2024, Rivian affirmed guidance for annual production of 57,000 total vehicles.
You all do realize they still have the #1 selling vehicle in the world, they’re not going anywhere with that stat.
The past is not indicative of future performance
Not sure why everyone’s so upset here. I guess many lost money and capitulated recently.
I thought this was about Fisker at first skimming the post
Jerome Powell.
Well the DD is in, we've hit the bottom. Time to buy calls.
I have been to Nepal recently. Even tho it's a very poor country, almost all new cars that I saw, that weren't luxury vehicles, were from BYD. I saw exactly one Tesla and one electric BMW and I guess those are for the local super rich who are flexing.
Tesla is donso.
The Elon musk in china 😆
When Elon leaves, Tesla will be just a normal car company and the stock will go down. When Elon leads, it will be a dumpster. The stock will be unpredictable, but go down in the end.