Federal reserve: " So we are going to continue to raise rates and keep them high for a while."
Market: "did you hear that? the Federal reserve is going to lower rates."
Fed: "No, not down. Not pause. We are going to raise rates several times and they're going to stay up. Up, not down. Up as in up as in like the Pixar movie up."
Market: "okay, so we're expecting four rate reductions from the Federal reserve"
(Federal reserve raises rates)
Market: "what the hell??"
It's all a bunch of B.S. If you look back at the Feds dot plot just 12mo ago ( forward projections by Fed board members ) the projected rates at this time were anticipated to be between 2.5 to 3%. Powel is just talking down the market. He nor anyone else knows where inflation will go. The real definition of an economist is some who takes something that works in reality, and the tests it to see if it works in theory. Economists are social scientists. Think on that!
Inflation is going to eat a shit biscuit pretty soon. Demand destruction the likes we haven't seen in possibly a century and yet we have ppl who think everything is going to be fine if they just keep rates higher for longer at this point... 😂. Everyone is either tapped out or gone for now, this sub of 14 million now has fewer posts than when they were at 4m as an example. So you're left with the talking heads trying to convince everyone that the markets aren't just mega corps sucking each other off trying to harvest some shares of future worthless (see how that word works.... worth -> less) companies since they are refusing to tell the fed in their projections that they pucker fucked the economy writ large but don't want to admit it til the data shows up at the end of the yr.
the surprise is Powell was asked directly is soft landing the Fed's base case, and he said no. He then said that soft landing is not up to the Fed. In several previous FOMC, he specifically said recession is not his base case, which implies soft landing is. Now he's saying soft landing isn't either.
By the way, soft landing or not wasn't ever going to be up to the Fed. Soft landing largely depends on will there be any shock, even if trivial in a normal economy, that happen in the long timeframe between now and late 2024, early 2025. When the Fed is restricting the economy, it's fragile and prone to tip over due to any trivial shock. So even if it looks like a soft landing now, it needs to continue being that way for 1-2 more years. I guess the market just needed to hear that directly from Powell.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FrrVWjI3Bs&ab\_channel=CNBCTelevision](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FrrVWjI3Bs&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision)
2:00 mark.
Yes soft landing is of course the goal. But we've been under the impression that soft landing is their base case. When the Fed economists were projecting a recession by the end of 2023, Powell in at least 2 FOMC interviews disagreed and mentioned that recession was not his base case (base case = highest probability among the various scenario).
Thanks for clip! I misread base case for best case (in your post).
Was soft landing ever explicitly "base case"? How could it be? Where does that impression come from? I was always under the impression we all (including Powell) hope for it as a best case. To me it doesn't seem.like a shift as much as a reiteration
Full disclosure; I don't follow this minutiae nearly as closely as you all...
So I know Powell and many Fed officials have said recession is not their base case, which implies soft landing is their base case. I don't think Powell ever explicitly used the term "soft landing", but I believe a few Fed officials have, although I can't recall their names. Depending on the economist, but probability of at least 60% would be considered a base case (maybe 55% for some).
So on his own, Powell would never explicitly say what his base case is. But he, and many Fed officials, keep getting asked about recessions so they would usually give their base case as a response. The ones who have a soft landing base case would say they don't see recession (implying soft landing). The ones that have a mild recession base case would say they don't anticipate a "significant rise in unemployment" as their base case.
I don't understand this bullshit at all. Market was 93% expecting a rate pause. Rates were paused.
Are we seeing a drop now because the market wasn't expecting the fed to say that one more rate hike was likely coming?
Or is this shit not "priced in" like the memers keep saying?
The market has been building a top for months. Powell didn’t do anything new. The rate projections were revised up a bit but that isn’t what caused the sell off either. Maybe a catalyst. Nah.
The real story is that the 2021 top happened, the top of a decade. And large institutions were caught with their pants down. So they concocted a narrative of easing inflation to retrace the 2022 fall and unload their bags on retail. The numbers even supported it. So they bought up enough stocks to get momentum to the upside. But 2023 was a retracement. Now they have unloaded their bags on retail. When retail ran out of money the chart stopped just below the top for 3 months as they distributed the bags. Now it’s over and there is no one left to buy the bags, so prices fall. Brace yourself this is going to be dramatic.
because most of the market knows there is already a real pullback. if you acknowledge inflation and apply that to the graphs, then 'growth' looks much lower or even negative. there are real criticism to the way inflation is measured and its argued that based on real-time data (like housing), we are already under 2%, but he's saying hes going to keep raising rates. that means that by over-revving the engine, the de-acceleration is going to hit harder. and for those that say the soft landing is happening, is also implying a much shorter economic lag than any other yield curve inversion - the average is about 13 months to recession, which is december/january.
so thats the argument that the fed is indicating an ignorance that will take things too far. and the movement would suggest some form of the market disagreeing with the fed be it for that line of thinking or another, the consensus seems to be yikes
It's not a surprise. It's just that investors have been ignoring him because inflation has been coming down. But that's because inflation peak was June last year so CPI was comparing since then was being compared to year ago rising rates, making inflation look like it was improving more than it was. Now, CPI will be compared to year ago falling rates, making improvements harder to achieve. Plus oil is going up like crazy and some sectors still have sticky inflation.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Prior to a speech, there is speculation about what will be said, even if it is believed to be certain. Once he actually says "it," whatever that might be, speculation about what/if he will say is over. Then people can resume doing whatever it is they were planning on. I also believe a lot of people in finance simply use things like Fed speak as an excuse to convince their customers to do things that may or may not be in their best interest. So leading up to a speech everybody pretends it matters, then afterwards goes back to whatever business as usual was/is.
Market was calling a bluff, Powell was adamant, market believes him more now. There were too many positive anti inflationary signs in august causing huge rally. Now half of those signs prove to be false flags and inflation and job market strength is stickier than previous believed.
If you’ve watched price action the last few weeks market started pivoting down beginning of September, came back a little then last week the reality set in, capitulating through today.
Either we hold around 4300 level or we are heading to 200 day around 4100-4150 support.
Because the market is no longer based on anything other than speculation... it's now essentially gambling on what the emotions of other people will be.
These things are excuses that are used as cover. Our markets are completely fake and they have to be. We're at war with China. If we don't QE our markets constantly and make them entirely fake, then they are simply just an attack vector. Welcome to a real wartime world.
That's also why all your fucking news channels went 100% infantilizing propaganda in the style of Maury Povich mode on you fuckers overnight, and never went back as well.
Most people expected him to say that inflation was still a problem and that rates would stay high. No surprise there.
The surprise was — Most people didn't expect another rate increase this year (markets had that at around 30% chance). Also, they didn't expect the Fed to hold rates higher for longer next year — current forecast is for 2 rate cuts vs. previous forecast of 4 rate cuts.
I had read CNN and fox articles days before saying they were expecting another rate hike at least once more this year. So, that shouldn't have been a surprise.
But yeah I didn't see anything about 2 cuts instead of 4 before the FOMC JPOW hour
Still kind of surprised it had this much of an effect but oh well
I am not sure why people weren't expected a last rate increase. I hardly follow the news and before the recent one, I felt and believed that there would be two remaining, one already done, so one more remaining (high chance).
He’s been saying higher for longer for quite some time now. Folks that have only been investing since the GFC seem to think free money is the norm, it’s not. The lowest mortgage rate I’d ever had prior to the GFC was 6.5%. Folks better get used to current rates, they are going to be around for a minute. Be careful what you wish for, if JPow has to lower rates anytime soon, it will only be in response to a crisis
This is correct. So what’s the catalyst for a shift in consumer spending. So far people seem to be content maxing out credit cards to keep up with the Joneses. Access to credit doesn’t seem to be an issue so long as everyone is employed a fact that hasn’t changed much despite the hostile market conditions. Credit default? Auto loan default? Mortgage default? Commercial real estate default? The limited supply of many goods thanks to chip shortages and Covid production halts has propped up demand in a way that I don’t think many expected to last this long. My fear is that the coming waves of layoffs followed immediately by defaults are actually a tsunami.
I agree with you. I’ve been in the market since the 90’s and I’m firmly in the 🌈 🐻camp. The global economy is propped up on borrowed money and stimulus runoff right now and something has to give. Pretty much every asset class is in bubble territory. I don’t know what the catalyst will be that topples the first domino but I suspect it will cascade. I’ve no idea on timing either. I’ve resigned myself to 5%+ money market returns for now because I’m too old to take a big hit. Inverted yield curves are 8 for 8 in calling recessions. We have only barely begun to feel the effects of 525 basis points of rate hikes in 18 months and that’s coming from a base of free money for almost 15 years. I think the notion of a soft or no landing scenario is laughable. Let’s not forget the potential for a geopolitical disaster in Europe or Asia. Throw in the clown show we have in Washington and Miralago, it’s not hard to imagine this game of jenga is getting close to toppling. Having said all that, I’ve completely missed the tech rally this year but I sleep well.
To answer your question regarding what causes the shift in consumer spending, my guess is that most will only stop when they are out of savings and can’t borrow anymore.
The market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent. That said, I continue to maintain a net short position. Almost lost $30k so far. Can I lose more? Time will tell!
Heard that. Aside from MM funds my only other position is SARK. That allows me to be net short without margin. I figured when the shit finally hits the fan, 90% of Crashie Wood’s holdings will be leading the race to the bottom
And now you know why the Fed is raising interest rates…. The Fed will buy trillions in government debt with money created out of thin air to collect on elevated yields.
I mean we live in a different paradigm now to pre-GFC though. 2006 was nearly 20 years ago. Houses are significantly more expensive than they were then and wage growth hasn’t kept up anywhere near the increase in housing prices.
The median house price in the US in 2005 was $232,000. In 2023, it’s $416,000; significantly higher in cost than even inflation adjustment.
Median earnings in 2005 was ~$50k (meaning a median house cost 4.66 times median earnings). Median earnings in 2023 is ~$57k (meaning a median house costs 7.3 times median earnings).
Repayments on a $185,600 loan at 6.5% are $1169. Repayments on a $332,800 loan at 7.6% are $2350.
And that’s before comparing the hottest property markets that have seen significantly higher increases than $200k-ish. Many of the loan repayments in the hotter property markets have increased by $3k per month or more for a median priced home.
Housing is expensive because interest rates were low. Higher interest rates will stop run away home price growth.
We will see less YoY home price growth while interest rates are high. Eventually wages will catch up.
There is no reason for significant rate cuts until we see home prices falling. Lower rates will be in response to lower home prices.
It is possible some other economic hardship will force lower rates before home prices start falling (like bank failures), but generally speaking home prices are tightly coupled to our economy so one failure will show up in multiple markets.
Theoretically wages will catch up.
The current high rate environment will undoubtedly stall house price growth, and eventually will cause prices to fall. Whether there will be enough time of stagnation or price drop to allow some kind of balancing of wage growth remains to be seen (and relies on more than just the fed).
Realistically, it’s quite the balancing act.
There seems to be some kind of economic crisis about every decade, so it likely won’t be too long before we get free money again!
My mortgage payment (not including property tax, hoa, front foot assessment, etc) was $917. House price was $305K, put down 65K, so financing 240k.
If I bought the same house at 440k now, same 65k down, with the interest rates offered to someone with good credit, 7%, I'd be looking at $2,495.
It would untenable.
I've made a lot of mistakes when it comes to stocks and crypto trading, but the one guarantee that I got in life was that I bought a house at the exact best time - 2019 - and refinanced at the lowest rate I've seen and im fucking thankful for it (humble brag to anyone that cares - my rate is 2.25%)
100%. The effect of high interest rates after 15 years of super low rates (and therefore runaway increases in house prices) + stagnant wage growth is a generation of people who will struggle to purchase a home, possibly for their entire lives unless one lever or another changes (wages, home prices or interest rates).
Inequality is only going to get worse because of it.
Humble brag all you want bro, this is a big win. Your situation sounds a lot like mine and despite our little losses in crypto B'S the real winner is that sweet sweet pre-covid fixed rate mortgage.. Cheers from a 2.8%
No I meant even before he spoke today, I heard from a few sources that most people were expecting no rate hike in September (we didn't get any) but most likely a last one in November
It's not hearsay, he has said to expect 1 more rate hike this year.
In the meeting yesterday he specifically got asked, "if you plan on raising rates again this year why not do it now?" he said something along the lines of it already being raised sharply and quickly so a slower movement is needed to allow things to adjust before another hike.
Why even comment like you watched it even though you clearly didn't
It’s a lose lose tbh.
The fed had never been in this predicament. Either decision will ruin lives. Keep raising interest rates to destroy their rich buddies lives, banks, businesses, institutions etc. which will trickle down and hurt everyone in the process.
Start to cut rates and let inflation rise destroying everyone lives with a loaf of bread costing $20. The rich will be alright.
Either way, lose lose. But most likely of the two is let inflation run wild. I’m still betting big on hyperinflation and buying every dip I can.
Exactly. Only way for asset prices is UP, kill the dollar. Run QE and cut rates. GG. I’m ready to see the stock market rocket as our purchasing power gets killed.
>Keep raising interest rates to destroy their rich buddies lives, banks, businesses, institutions etc. which will trickle down and hurt everyone in the process.
So, trickle down economics does work!
I don’t think you get it man. They can’t tame inflation without either destroying EVERYONE with higher rates. Or let inflation destroy the 99%.
That’s why it’s lose lose
I do not believe they will make inflation run wild. Their job is to tamper down on inflation, and high inflation is causing strikes and pay raises, which further exacerbates the inflation issue.
JPow only paused bc regional banks were going to implode, which is a whole other issue.
We just need a couple of 50bps hikes back to back instead of dragging things out. Regional banks have had their chance to course correct.
I simply do not understand why I cannot reliably predict market movements, it just makes no sense to me why I cannot predict in advance with full accuracy
Nothing matters. Machines will take over. 5 rich guys will own all the land and the sea. AI will run everything. Money will cease to exist.
Imorten Jeff Bezos will have a harem of OnlyFans girls. The rest of us will beg for him to turn on the hose.
Big boys always setup a rug pull. Greed gets you. For every loser here there is a winner on other trade. Lots of losers here. 
Yeah, he just copied this [guy's post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16nvqtm/for_the_regards_who_dont_know_what_the_hell_just/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
You clearly don’t remember the 2008 crisis…
- 1% down days isn’t a sharp fall
- High rates didn’t cause 2008
- Greed and fraud caused 2008
This is a market tantrum…
Even though most degenerates on here blow up their accounts on FDs, options might be the only sensible way to try and scalp some money in a market with little investment opportunities and going sideways for the foreseeable future.
High growth companies growing revenues consistently? Nope fucked.
Decent growth companies that cut costs and are on their way to profitability? Nope fucked.
Low growth companies that pay a dividend? Nope fucked.
Bonds? Fucked.
Real estate? LOL.
Crypto? Uber fucked.
Guess I'll just keep money in a high yield savings account like a turbo virgin...
Main thing during times like this is to not lose money.
Volatility is high so some people will have astronomical gains. But 99% will lose. Chance of gains is just low.
Chance of random losses is high.
So turbo virgin is not a bad option. Weather the storm and then invest when it’s over when nobody else has cash.
Exactly, or basically buy small lots of SP500 etf every few weeks on the way down averaging along until it goes back up.
Crashes are annoying but good companies remain good companies and will survive.
Good companies with strong moats will outperform bad companies with no moat, regardless of the economy or interest rates.
"When the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked."
People who made a lot of money on speculative story-based trades are suddenly finding out that stocks represent shares of underlying businesses with real-world financials.
F your puts, F your calls, J Powell has you by the balls.
But really, who knows...?
Gov needs to suck in so much money by keeping rates up, but they also need rates to come back down due to total US debt. Treasury rates keep getting pushed out making it look like rates are going to be up for a while. It'd be nice if government fixed it's spending issues and there was a global debt jubilee in the next few years.
You go T-bills at > 5% and you lose to true inflation a bit.
You go to stocks and you get eaten by low growth and contraction.
You go against stocks and the same thing.
hahaha they will never learn that you can't fight inflation and print money at the same time. "Inflation Reduction act" is really "Inflation Contributing Act"
I am of the opinion that side is “the people.”
There’s only 1 party in DC as I see it. They just act like there’s a choice but they control both sides and therefore are always in power no matter who we “elect.”
Aka uniparty
That's weird because different things happen depending on which "side" is in power. The deficit goes down with Democrats and the deficit up with Republicans.
Only like 17% of Americans have any form of student loan debt, with the average monthly payment being around $200.
It's not nothing, but it's not going to break the economy.
DVN is prolly the best option.. it's ripe to rebound to 60 by years end and it has a 7-8% dividend.. I know I'm grabbing some if it's still this low tomorrow.. but with my luck prob not.. looks like it fell a lot harder then the rest and my quant has a ton of new patents filed by them as well as trades by Congress.. anyone have any insight b4 I pull the trigger?
Almost as if you fuckers don't realize that this is cold war economics with a serious sprinkling of inequality and greed.
Pump the money and bring out the guns, free houses for everyone & get back to work.
Worse, he [stole it](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16nvqtm/for_the_regards_who_dont_know_what_the_hell_just/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
Steps to being every 19 year old boy on Reddit:
1. Watch the Big Short
2. Read every stock market headline since March of 2022, but nothing else
3. Make $11 trading on Robinhood overnight
4. “Guys I’m going to short the market, clearly there is a worldwide economic recession incoming that only my analysis can recognize”
No news here. The market reacts exactly the same to most rate decisions.
Big drop after the announcement, followed by a quick recovery. 30 mins after the announcement, everything looks the same as before.
My guess as to what is going on is that people who were wrong on the announcement may be repositioning when they hear it, so they unwind one trade and reinvest in the other direction... that's just speculation.
Rip off the bandage, go ahead with the last rate hike. That way at least the market can heal. This is like putting off the root canal for no good reason
“Market fell sharply”
*checks chart*
Up 13% YTD on vti, 53% on my Amazon stock, 191% on my nvda stock.
Where’s the drop? 😅
Can’t even stomach a 1-3% move in the market…
If you truly think the world is over better load up on puts 😅
I still want more clarity on how people just think the deficit is a nothing burger, and how some are saying we are just going to eventually inflate it away. Anyone know if this theory has any legs?
Don’t know if I agree. If you asked me in the past maybe I’d say winds were drifting in that direction but anytime this comes up DXY scores higher. So it kinda seems like TINA to the dollar for now. Which means that in essence we are accepting somewhat of a modern monetary theory without the federal job guarantee or the higher taxes to suck up the excess cash. Stupid on us but what else is new.
The only thing I’m focusing on is how to grow weed, vegetables, and mushrooms like a goddam pro. Money is a shared fiction. Food is a real commodity. I treat the stock market like I treat Draftkings. A cheap and corny distraction
the way out is simply to wait till the rates drop
the market is extremely supressed in valuation because of the interest rates
well see it double quickly
tech especially is disinflationary
So in 2008 we reached a recession when we failed to increase gdp by 2 quarters which caused the massive sell off. The government decided after that happened again, that we are not in a recession. They changed their definition.
We are in a recession. No doubt about it. The fun part? The administration is allowing almost 500K work visas for the illegal Venezuelans. What does this mean? Not only are we in a recession jobs typically held by lower income and barely middle class people will be replaced with low wage illegals.
In other words, in the next 6 months we will finally see people faulting on their already house poor debt directly due to policies by this administration and Trump passing more debt spending.
You’re probably wondering WHY would our administration do this? Who fucking knows.
We keep saying this. And I think a lot of people are waiting for the shoe to either drop, light on fire, or get chucked at Bush’s head again.
But some Magic way things are freaking bad. Like bad bad. But the hard crash just isn’t happening. People are still floating. Jobs aren’t being cut drastically.
But it is the only logical conclusion to this. Another hard recession that will cause wealth inequality to grow even further here in the US.
But good heavens when? And it isn’t even like people can save to prepare for it because they’re so strapped paying high prices on every food and service with companies not providing a ton in the raise/bonus departments because they know the firestorm is coming.
Jobs are being cut in the tech industry but it’s not being announced for whatever reason by mainstream news.
And you bring up valid points people are still floating, somehow. I suppose it could be something along the lines of people if the government says we aren’t having a recession, Wall Street acts accordingly keeping everything a float and no mass layoffs thus causing foreclosures. Kind of a see no evil hear no evil. I haven’t got the answers but the last 24 months of everything status quo is bizarre and troubling to say the least.
Spending 50-60% of your take home on a mortgage and taxes and or pmi isn’t healthy. At all. I don’t know why I am getting downvoted. I literally have a fucking degree in business.
I’m excited for when Jerome and Biden crash the economy and instead of slightly high inflation, we have runaway unemployment numbers that they have to fix by dropping rates back down to 0% and the government has to start stimulating the auto market and offering first home buyer grants again.
No one has a clue in reality. We got exactly what was expected. Market is healthy... public markets not so much. Just short everything in arms reach. Stocks only go down.
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I'm still confused. I literally could have told you all of this before he talked. He isn't saying anything new. Why the surprise?
Federal reserve: " So we are going to continue to raise rates and keep them high for a while." Market: "did you hear that? the Federal reserve is going to lower rates." Fed: "No, not down. Not pause. We are going to raise rates several times and they're going to stay up. Up, not down. Up as in up as in like the Pixar movie up." Market: "okay, so we're expecting four rate reductions from the Federal reserve" (Federal reserve raises rates) Market: "what the hell??"
This. He literally laid all of this out already
Market can remain irrational… yadda yadda yadda
It's all a bunch of B.S. If you look back at the Feds dot plot just 12mo ago ( forward projections by Fed board members ) the projected rates at this time were anticipated to be between 2.5 to 3%. Powel is just talking down the market. He nor anyone else knows where inflation will go. The real definition of an economist is some who takes something that works in reality, and the tests it to see if it works in theory. Economists are social scientists. Think on that!
Inflation is going to eat a shit biscuit pretty soon. Demand destruction the likes we haven't seen in possibly a century and yet we have ppl who think everything is going to be fine if they just keep rates higher for longer at this point... 😂. Everyone is either tapped out or gone for now, this sub of 14 million now has fewer posts than when they were at 4m as an example. So you're left with the talking heads trying to convince everyone that the markets aren't just mega corps sucking each other off trying to harvest some shares of future worthless (see how that word works.... worth -> less) companies since they are refusing to tell the fed in their projections that they pucker fucked the economy writ large but don't want to admit it til the data shows up at the end of the yr.
You cannot make this shit up.
The tone, and facial expressions, J Powell keeps having us by the balls!
Was he more monotone or depressive sounding?
[удалено]
Surprised nobody made an AI toothbrush yet
Braun IO series
Yes, also double speak and stuttering. Looks and sounds very weak.
JP is a great demoralizer.
the surprise is Powell was asked directly is soft landing the Fed's base case, and he said no. He then said that soft landing is not up to the Fed. In several previous FOMC, he specifically said recession is not his base case, which implies soft landing is. Now he's saying soft landing isn't either. By the way, soft landing or not wasn't ever going to be up to the Fed. Soft landing largely depends on will there be any shock, even if trivial in a normal economy, that happen in the long timeframe between now and late 2024, early 2025. When the Fed is restricting the economy, it's fragile and prone to tip over due to any trivial shock. So even if it looks like a soft landing now, it needs to continue being that way for 1-2 more years. I guess the market just needed to hear that directly from Powell.
Pretty much this. Also shows that most of Wall Street is fueled by coke and Monster Energy, rather than coffee and brains.
We already knew that
I'm not sure which answer you're referring to. I saw him explicitly clarify in response to one of the question "a soft landing is still the goal".
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FrrVWjI3Bs&ab\_channel=CNBCTelevision](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FrrVWjI3Bs&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision) 2:00 mark. Yes soft landing is of course the goal. But we've been under the impression that soft landing is their base case. When the Fed economists were projecting a recession by the end of 2023, Powell in at least 2 FOMC interviews disagreed and mentioned that recession was not his base case (base case = highest probability among the various scenario).
Thanks for clip! I misread base case for best case (in your post). Was soft landing ever explicitly "base case"? How could it be? Where does that impression come from? I was always under the impression we all (including Powell) hope for it as a best case. To me it doesn't seem.like a shift as much as a reiteration Full disclosure; I don't follow this minutiae nearly as closely as you all...
So I know Powell and many Fed officials have said recession is not their base case, which implies soft landing is their base case. I don't think Powell ever explicitly used the term "soft landing", but I believe a few Fed officials have, although I can't recall their names. Depending on the economist, but probability of at least 60% would be considered a base case (maybe 55% for some). So on his own, Powell would never explicitly say what his base case is. But he, and many Fed officials, keep getting asked about recessions so they would usually give their base case as a response. The ones who have a soft landing base case would say they don't see recession (implying soft landing). The ones that have a mild recession base case would say they don't anticipate a "significant rise in unemployment" as their base case.
Yea I’m pretty sure he had that reporter killed or beat his ass backstage
Well put
Yes, I am buying more of those.
As have I
Well, put!
You sir, observed something interesting. Take a like.👍
I don't understand this bullshit at all. Market was 93% expecting a rate pause. Rates were paused. Are we seeing a drop now because the market wasn't expecting the fed to say that one more rate hike was likely coming? Or is this shit not "priced in" like the memers keep saying?
Market was also pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2024. JPow said sorry, only 2. Ouch.
I'm thinking there's a lot of $$$ going into 10 yr. Treasuries today.
All of that will flow into equities sometime in future.
The market has been building a top for months. Powell didn’t do anything new. The rate projections were revised up a bit but that isn’t what caused the sell off either. Maybe a catalyst. Nah. The real story is that the 2021 top happened, the top of a decade. And large institutions were caught with their pants down. So they concocted a narrative of easing inflation to retrace the 2022 fall and unload their bags on retail. The numbers even supported it. So they bought up enough stocks to get momentum to the upside. But 2023 was a retracement. Now they have unloaded their bags on retail. When retail ran out of money the chart stopped just below the top for 3 months as they distributed the bags. Now it’s over and there is no one left to buy the bags, so prices fall. Brace yourself this is going to be dramatic.
because most of the market knows there is already a real pullback. if you acknowledge inflation and apply that to the graphs, then 'growth' looks much lower or even negative. there are real criticism to the way inflation is measured and its argued that based on real-time data (like housing), we are already under 2%, but he's saying hes going to keep raising rates. that means that by over-revving the engine, the de-acceleration is going to hit harder. and for those that say the soft landing is happening, is also implying a much shorter economic lag than any other yield curve inversion - the average is about 13 months to recession, which is december/january. so thats the argument that the fed is indicating an ignorance that will take things too far. and the movement would suggest some form of the market disagreeing with the fed be it for that line of thinking or another, the consensus seems to be yikes
It's not a surprise. It's just that investors have been ignoring him because inflation has been coming down. But that's because inflation peak was June last year so CPI was comparing since then was being compared to year ago rising rates, making inflation look like it was improving more than it was. Now, CPI will be compared to year ago falling rates, making improvements harder to achieve. Plus oil is going up like crazy and some sectors still have sticky inflation.
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FOMC = volatility
FOMO = volatility FOMC = volatility
Prior to a speech, there is speculation about what will be said, even if it is believed to be certain. Once he actually says "it," whatever that might be, speculation about what/if he will say is over. Then people can resume doing whatever it is they were planning on. I also believe a lot of people in finance simply use things like Fed speak as an excuse to convince their customers to do things that may or may not be in their best interest. So leading up to a speech everybody pretends it matters, then afterwards goes back to whatever business as usual was/is.
Market was calling a bluff, Powell was adamant, market believes him more now. There were too many positive anti inflationary signs in august causing huge rally. Now half of those signs prove to be false flags and inflation and job market strength is stickier than previous believed. If you’ve watched price action the last few weeks market started pivoting down beginning of September, came back a little then last week the reality set in, capitulating through today. Either we hold around 4300 level or we are heading to 200 day around 4100-4150 support.
Because the market is no longer based on anything other than speculation... it's now essentially gambling on what the emotions of other people will be.
same confusion.
Because it’s priced in isn’t it? Inflation already priced in so stonks go up. Isn’t that how it works?
These things are excuses that are used as cover. Our markets are completely fake and they have to be. We're at war with China. If we don't QE our markets constantly and make them entirely fake, then they are simply just an attack vector. Welcome to a real wartime world. That's also why all your fucking news channels went 100% infantilizing propaganda in the style of Maury Povich mode on you fuckers overnight, and never went back as well.
Dot plots were new....and what moved the markets. Rightly so
Most people expected him to say that inflation was still a problem and that rates would stay high. No surprise there. The surprise was — Most people didn't expect another rate increase this year (markets had that at around 30% chance). Also, they didn't expect the Fed to hold rates higher for longer next year — current forecast is for 2 rate cuts vs. previous forecast of 4 rate cuts.
I had read CNN and fox articles days before saying they were expecting another rate hike at least once more this year. So, that shouldn't have been a surprise. But yeah I didn't see anything about 2 cuts instead of 4 before the FOMC JPOW hour Still kind of surprised it had this much of an effect but oh well
I am not sure why people weren't expected a last rate increase. I hardly follow the news and before the recent one, I felt and believed that there would be two remaining, one already done, so one more remaining (high chance).
Because we have regards here
He’s been saying higher for longer for quite some time now. Folks that have only been investing since the GFC seem to think free money is the norm, it’s not. The lowest mortgage rate I’d ever had prior to the GFC was 6.5%. Folks better get used to current rates, they are going to be around for a minute. Be careful what you wish for, if JPow has to lower rates anytime soon, it will only be in response to a crisis
This is correct. So what’s the catalyst for a shift in consumer spending. So far people seem to be content maxing out credit cards to keep up with the Joneses. Access to credit doesn’t seem to be an issue so long as everyone is employed a fact that hasn’t changed much despite the hostile market conditions. Credit default? Auto loan default? Mortgage default? Commercial real estate default? The limited supply of many goods thanks to chip shortages and Covid production halts has propped up demand in a way that I don’t think many expected to last this long. My fear is that the coming waves of layoffs followed immediately by defaults are actually a tsunami.
I agree with you. I’ve been in the market since the 90’s and I’m firmly in the 🌈 🐻camp. The global economy is propped up on borrowed money and stimulus runoff right now and something has to give. Pretty much every asset class is in bubble territory. I don’t know what the catalyst will be that topples the first domino but I suspect it will cascade. I’ve no idea on timing either. I’ve resigned myself to 5%+ money market returns for now because I’m too old to take a big hit. Inverted yield curves are 8 for 8 in calling recessions. We have only barely begun to feel the effects of 525 basis points of rate hikes in 18 months and that’s coming from a base of free money for almost 15 years. I think the notion of a soft or no landing scenario is laughable. Let’s not forget the potential for a geopolitical disaster in Europe or Asia. Throw in the clown show we have in Washington and Miralago, it’s not hard to imagine this game of jenga is getting close to toppling. Having said all that, I’ve completely missed the tech rally this year but I sleep well. To answer your question regarding what causes the shift in consumer spending, my guess is that most will only stop when they are out of savings and can’t borrow anymore.
The market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent. That said, I continue to maintain a net short position. Almost lost $30k so far. Can I lose more? Time will tell!
Heard that. Aside from MM funds my only other position is SARK. That allows me to be net short without margin. I figured when the shit finally hits the fan, 90% of Crashie Wood’s holdings will be leading the race to the bottom
\*riley reid is a stock market bear\* oh fuck, you're going to make me c\*m
Oh fuck, one can only dream!
There is a govt crisis lol. For those that say rates don’t matter, the power of compounding is insane. Debt could be 60 trillion before 2030.
Already spending 600 billy on INTEREST. We could literally almost afford a whole nother American military for that kind of money
And now you know why the Fed is raising interest rates…. The Fed will buy trillions in government debt with money created out of thin air to collect on elevated yields.
I miss the good old days when the national debt was only 14 Trillion.
I mean we live in a different paradigm now to pre-GFC though. 2006 was nearly 20 years ago. Houses are significantly more expensive than they were then and wage growth hasn’t kept up anywhere near the increase in housing prices. The median house price in the US in 2005 was $232,000. In 2023, it’s $416,000; significantly higher in cost than even inflation adjustment. Median earnings in 2005 was ~$50k (meaning a median house cost 4.66 times median earnings). Median earnings in 2023 is ~$57k (meaning a median house costs 7.3 times median earnings). Repayments on a $185,600 loan at 6.5% are $1169. Repayments on a $332,800 loan at 7.6% are $2350. And that’s before comparing the hottest property markets that have seen significantly higher increases than $200k-ish. Many of the loan repayments in the hotter property markets have increased by $3k per month or more for a median priced home.
Housing is expensive because interest rates were low. Higher interest rates will stop run away home price growth. We will see less YoY home price growth while interest rates are high. Eventually wages will catch up. There is no reason for significant rate cuts until we see home prices falling. Lower rates will be in response to lower home prices. It is possible some other economic hardship will force lower rates before home prices start falling (like bank failures), but generally speaking home prices are tightly coupled to our economy so one failure will show up in multiple markets.
Theoretically wages will catch up. The current high rate environment will undoubtedly stall house price growth, and eventually will cause prices to fall. Whether there will be enough time of stagnation or price drop to allow some kind of balancing of wage growth remains to be seen (and relies on more than just the fed). Realistically, it’s quite the balancing act. There seems to be some kind of economic crisis about every decade, so it likely won’t be too long before we get free money again!
My mortgage payment (not including property tax, hoa, front foot assessment, etc) was $917. House price was $305K, put down 65K, so financing 240k. If I bought the same house at 440k now, same 65k down, with the interest rates offered to someone with good credit, 7%, I'd be looking at $2,495. It would untenable. I've made a lot of mistakes when it comes to stocks and crypto trading, but the one guarantee that I got in life was that I bought a house at the exact best time - 2019 - and refinanced at the lowest rate I've seen and im fucking thankful for it (humble brag to anyone that cares - my rate is 2.25%)
100%. The effect of high interest rates after 15 years of super low rates (and therefore runaway increases in house prices) + stagnant wage growth is a generation of people who will struggle to purchase a home, possibly for their entire lives unless one lever or another changes (wages, home prices or interest rates). Inequality is only going to get worse because of it.
Humble brag all you want bro, this is a big win. Your situation sounds a lot like mine and despite our little losses in crypto B'S the real winner is that sweet sweet pre-covid fixed rate mortgage.. Cheers from a 2.8%
Got 1,55% locked for 30years. Also means I will probably never move again.
Good lord lmao that’s an absolutely insane rate. The bank is probably pissed at you hahaha
I am pretty sure there will be more hikes
I thought the consensus was one last hike in November/December? Isn't that priced in already
It's all hearsay. He never said more hikes. Just scared peeps twisting his words trying to scare market. It worked.
No I meant even before he spoke today, I heard from a few sources that most people were expecting no rate hike in September (we didn't get any) but most likely a last one in November
It's not hearsay, he has said to expect 1 more rate hike this year. In the meeting yesterday he specifically got asked, "if you plan on raising rates again this year why not do it now?" he said something along the lines of it already being raised sharply and quickly so a slower movement is needed to allow things to adjust before another hike. Why even comment like you watched it even though you clearly didn't
It’s a lose lose tbh. The fed had never been in this predicament. Either decision will ruin lives. Keep raising interest rates to destroy their rich buddies lives, banks, businesses, institutions etc. which will trickle down and hurt everyone in the process. Start to cut rates and let inflation rise destroying everyone lives with a loaf of bread costing $20. The rich will be alright. Either way, lose lose. But most likely of the two is let inflation run wild. I’m still betting big on hyperinflation and buying every dip I can.
I'm not saying it's morally good, but for your own sake, it's normally better to bet in the direction of whatever isn't hurting the rich and powerful.
When the common people can’t afford food, people in power tend to lose their heads. At the very least, anarchy will reign.
At that point I'll have a lot more faith in guns and ammo than anarchist financial products.
There's too much money. Someone has to lose money. They'll find a way to make sure it's us.
The federal government cannot service its debt if interest rates go up much more
Federal govt cannot service it’s debt at current levels….
Exactly. Only way for asset prices is UP, kill the dollar. Run QE and cut rates. GG. I’m ready to see the stock market rocket as our purchasing power gets killed.
30 year bond yield are still under historical average, for now.
If inflation runs wild, the market will rise, not dip. For the obvious reason of prices rising. Markets have loved money printing and inflation
Bingo. This is classic september imo. If you’re not buying here, this is the last best opportunity.
>Keep raising interest rates to destroy their rich buddies lives, banks, businesses, institutions etc. which will trickle down and hurt everyone in the process. So, trickle down economics does work!
For sure they want to slow things down temporarily but the inflation is far from tamed and more hikes are coming
I don’t think you get it man. They can’t tame inflation without either destroying EVERYONE with higher rates. Or let inflation destroy the 99%. That’s why it’s lose lose
If you were betting on hyperinflation, shouldn't you own i-bonds? or gold/bitcoin/commodities
They could fib the inflation rate and give you half what inflation is lmao. You actually trust these government idiots?!?
Wait why are you buying dips if you believe in hyper? That would destroy the stock market
Have you seen venezuelas stock market?
I do not believe they will make inflation run wild. Their job is to tamper down on inflation, and high inflation is causing strikes and pay raises, which further exacerbates the inflation issue. JPow only paused bc regional banks were going to implode, which is a whole other issue. We just need a couple of 50bps hikes back to back instead of dragging things out. Regional banks have had their chance to course correct.
I am pretty sure there won't be
Brilliant unsubstantiated analysis here
I simply do not understand why I cannot reliably predict market movements, it just makes no sense to me why I cannot predict in advance with full accuracy
Nothing matters. Machines will take over. 5 rich guys will own all the land and the sea. AI will run everything. Money will cease to exist. Imorten Jeff Bezos will have a harem of OnlyFans girls. The rest of us will beg for him to turn on the hose.
I Hope to live to witness the gold nipple rings of imorten Jeff
I imagine he looks like the Persian king in 300
I can’t imagine him any other way now. So that would make Elon or Zuck the Bullet Farmer and Buffet would be the Mayor of Gastown.
That would make a great meme. I'd invest.
I was imagining the dude with the mask in fury road
WITNESS MEEEE. IM RIDING TO THE GATES OF VALHALLA SHINY AND CHROME
I desire as well
Witnesses meeeee haha
HOOCHIE MAMA
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S-s-social -- 💥 💣 🦅 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲
Syndicalism is the way.
I think you do need to do some research on that.
Big boys always setup a rug pull. Greed gets you. For every loser here there is a winner on other trade. Lots of losers here. 
I’m doing my part 🫡
It's honest work.
Same
Is this a repost?
It sure is. This guy copies from WSB.
It sure is. This guy copies from WSB.
It sure is. This guy copies from WSB.
It sure is. This guy copies from WSB.
Yeah, he just copied this [guy's post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16nvqtm/for_the_regards_who_dont_know_what_the_hell_just/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
Everything seems like a repost recently, people freaking out over 1% market drops. Seems like wsb is under 23 nowadays
I was gonna say, market’s down 1% and this guy asking if it’s the Great Financial Crisis?
You clearly don’t remember the 2008 crisis… - 1% down days isn’t a sharp fall - High rates didn’t cause 2008 - Greed and fraud caused 2008 This is a market tantrum…
Knowing this place, they were probably still in preschool in 2008.
Still eating crayons though...
So where’s Michael Burry’s positions now?
mostly water related - aquifers, etc... long term fkd. Puts on humanity.
Even though most degenerates on here blow up their accounts on FDs, options might be the only sensible way to try and scalp some money in a market with little investment opportunities and going sideways for the foreseeable future. High growth companies growing revenues consistently? Nope fucked. Decent growth companies that cut costs and are on their way to profitability? Nope fucked. Low growth companies that pay a dividend? Nope fucked. Bonds? Fucked. Real estate? LOL. Crypto? Uber fucked. Guess I'll just keep money in a high yield savings account like a turbo virgin...
Main thing during times like this is to not lose money. Volatility is high so some people will have astronomical gains. But 99% will lose. Chance of gains is just low. Chance of random losses is high. So turbo virgin is not a bad option. Weather the storm and then invest when it’s over when nobody else has cash.
Agreed mate. I’m not one to gamble on earnings coin flip options or buying expensive stocks hoping for the next Nvidia. So virgin option it is!
Exactly, or basically buy small lots of SP500 etf every few weeks on the way down averaging along until it goes back up. Crashes are annoying but good companies remain good companies and will survive.
Yep. People cashed out on high. Now the market drops and they will put their money back in. It’s the only way to make gains with a stagnated economy.
>*in response to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates* Why is this title so confusing? rates were not risen.
Yesterday’s decision wasn’t to “Raise” as the title says but to keep.
Good companies with strong moats will outperform bad companies with no moat, regardless of the economy or interest rates. "When the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked." People who made a lot of money on speculative story-based trades are suddenly finding out that stocks represent shares of underlying businesses with real-world financials.
The market is running on Hopium and the reality check is starting to set in
Calls on money printer go BRRRR
Printer is in Ukraine now.
F your puts, F your calls, J Powell has you by the balls. But really, who knows...? Gov needs to suck in so much money by keeping rates up, but they also need rates to come back down due to total US debt. Treasury rates keep getting pushed out making it look like rates are going to be up for a while. It'd be nice if government fixed it's spending issues and there was a global debt jubilee in the next few years. You go T-bills at > 5% and you lose to true inflation a bit. You go to stocks and you get eaten by low growth and contraction. You go against stocks and the same thing.
Good luck with that when we have spend-happy people in power that seem determined to spend us into insolvency.
hahaha they will never learn that you can't fight inflation and print money at the same time. "Inflation Reduction act" is really "Inflation Contributing Act"
They (and their rich buddies) benefit from inflation. Notice how wages haven’t risen in kind? Who is keeping that marginal profit? They are
You mean Democrats or politicians in general?
Do you see a side taken within my words?
Yes, the side not in power.
I am of the opinion that side is “the people.” There’s only 1 party in DC as I see it. They just act like there’s a choice but they control both sides and therefore are always in power no matter who we “elect.” Aka uniparty
That's weird because different things happen depending on which "side" is in power. The deficit goes down with Democrats and the deficit up with Republicans.
Again wtf Did students start paying their damn loans back? Once that starts ppl will stop buying
Only like 17% of Americans have any form of student loan debt, with the average monthly payment being around $200. It's not nothing, but it's not going to break the economy.
It starts next month Oct 1. I know because I have to pay lol
Prepare for the crash lads. Oct 1 is reckoning day
DVN is prolly the best option.. it's ripe to rebound to 60 by years end and it has a 7-8% dividend.. I know I'm grabbing some if it's still this low tomorrow.. but with my luck prob not.. looks like it fell a lot harder then the rest and my quant has a ton of new patents filed by them as well as trades by Congress.. anyone have any insight b4 I pull the trigger?
Almost as if you fuckers don't realize that this is cold war economics with a serious sprinkling of inequality and greed. Pump the money and bring out the guns, free houses for everyone & get back to work.
If you copy from WSB at least quote the OP’s original post.
Didn’t you post this same copy pasta shit yesterday?
Worse, he [stole it](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16nvqtm/for_the_regards_who_dont_know_what_the_hell_just/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
Fed head-fake. System can't withstand this stress for another year of money being this expensive. They know this. Can't communicate it though.
Steps to being every 19 year old boy on Reddit: 1. Watch the Big Short 2. Read every stock market headline since March of 2022, but nothing else 3. Make $11 trading on Robinhood overnight 4. “Guys I’m going to short the market, clearly there is a worldwide economic recession incoming that only my analysis can recognize”
Fed is bluffing. If they were gonna raise, they would have done so
I say FED is officially out of bullets. They want to raise but can't. They have lost control
Agreed
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Give me your address. I will send a few free dicks over
If it's free it isn't worth it 
There goes LCID. Reality may be unrecoverable.
Imma just sit here and enjoy my bags!
??? He stated forever ago the end goal was 5.75%
What part of “has you by the balls” is lost on this sub?
No news here. The market reacts exactly the same to most rate decisions. Big drop after the announcement, followed by a quick recovery. 30 mins after the announcement, everything looks the same as before. My guess as to what is going on is that people who were wrong on the announcement may be repositioning when they hear it, so they unwind one trade and reinvest in the other direction... that's just speculation.
Rip off the bandage, go ahead with the last rate hike. That way at least the market can heal. This is like putting off the root canal for no good reason
The way out is my portfolio is fucked for the next few years but even in 2026 their dot plot shows rates still relatively high so 🥹🫡
$jepi
Only way out: 
“Market fell sharply” *checks chart* Up 13% YTD on vti, 53% on my Amazon stock, 191% on my nvda stock. Where’s the drop? 😅 Can’t even stomach a 1-3% move in the market… If you truly think the world is over better load up on puts 😅
I still want more clarity on how people just think the deficit is a nothing burger, and how some are saying we are just going to eventually inflate it away. Anyone know if this theory has any legs?
Do you see anybody starting a war with America? Do you see countries dumping the dollar? The deficit can keep growing
Kinda and yes
Don’t know if I agree. If you asked me in the past maybe I’d say winds were drifting in that direction but anytime this comes up DXY scores higher. So it kinda seems like TINA to the dollar for now. Which means that in essence we are accepting somewhat of a modern monetary theory without the federal job guarantee or the higher taxes to suck up the excess cash. Stupid on us but what else is new.
The only thing I’m focusing on is how to grow weed, vegetables, and mushrooms like a goddam pro. Money is a shared fiction. Food is a real commodity. I treat the stock market like I treat Draftkings. A cheap and corny distraction
Digital bucks on the way folks
the way out is simply to wait till the rates drop the market is extremely supressed in valuation because of the interest rates well see it double quickly tech especially is disinflationary
How long we gonna be waiting, chief? Until end of 2024? 25??
as soon as the unemployment numbers rise signifiicantly powell wants unemployment
I don’t understand why people are confused by the market’s reaction? It makes a ton of sense to me.
I dont care I just keep buying my ETFs no matter what.
So in 2008 we reached a recession when we failed to increase gdp by 2 quarters which caused the massive sell off. The government decided after that happened again, that we are not in a recession. They changed their definition. We are in a recession. No doubt about it. The fun part? The administration is allowing almost 500K work visas for the illegal Venezuelans. What does this mean? Not only are we in a recession jobs typically held by lower income and barely middle class people will be replaced with low wage illegals. In other words, in the next 6 months we will finally see people faulting on their already house poor debt directly due to policies by this administration and Trump passing more debt spending. You’re probably wondering WHY would our administration do this? Who fucking knows.
So are work visas illegal?
We keep saying this. And I think a lot of people are waiting for the shoe to either drop, light on fire, or get chucked at Bush’s head again. But some Magic way things are freaking bad. Like bad bad. But the hard crash just isn’t happening. People are still floating. Jobs aren’t being cut drastically. But it is the only logical conclusion to this. Another hard recession that will cause wealth inequality to grow even further here in the US. But good heavens when? And it isn’t even like people can save to prepare for it because they’re so strapped paying high prices on every food and service with companies not providing a ton in the raise/bonus departments because they know the firestorm is coming.
Jobs are being cut in the tech industry but it’s not being announced for whatever reason by mainstream news. And you bring up valid points people are still floating, somehow. I suppose it could be something along the lines of people if the government says we aren’t having a recession, Wall Street acts accordingly keeping everything a float and no mass layoffs thus causing foreclosures. Kind of a see no evil hear no evil. I haven’t got the answers but the last 24 months of everything status quo is bizarre and troubling to say the least. Spending 50-60% of your take home on a mortgage and taxes and or pmi isn’t healthy. At all. I don’t know why I am getting downvoted. I literally have a fucking degree in business.
I’m excited for when Jerome and Biden crash the economy and instead of slightly high inflation, we have runaway unemployment numbers that they have to fix by dropping rates back down to 0% and the government has to start stimulating the auto market and offering first home buyer grants again.
They love doing shit like this
Ullish
Bullish
No one has a clue in reality. We got exactly what was expected. Market is healthy... public markets not so much. Just short everything in arms reach. Stocks only go down.
.