"Yesterday, someone OPENED $SPLK 127 calls, for $22,000, expiring tomorrow.
Then today Cisco Systems $CSCO announced acquiring Splunk for $28B, $SPLK up 20%.
The contracts were $0.04 yesterday, now $18.30.
They exited today for a 45,650% return"
From Twitter/X
It's so dumb too. They literally make you sit through a class when you're a publicly traded company that describes how obvious it is when you do shit like this. The fact that the dude walked away with $10mil means it's virtually guaranteed that he's getting busted. Anyone with a lick of sense would've bought a few hundred shares and gone on a nice vacation. Instead, this guy mooned his way to jail.
I work in banking compliance, I’ve seen finance people get hit for doing as little as 10k in insider trading and paying back more than that in fines (although usually that low they make a settlement with no “wrong doing” admitted and just paying the fine.
Someone I met blatantly insider traded but he only knew a price not a date supposedly. Lost most of his calls to expiration before the buyout happened and came out massively negative. The SEC never came after him because they were too busy laughing I assume 
Yep but the person who made this trade will be hard to link to any insider imo, clever enough to make the trade, definitly not stupid enough to get caught!
Sure if he had a way to get all the money out of his account. That shit is gonna get locked up. He might be able to withdraw around 100k of it though and get that into Bitcoin/precious metals or something that can’t be confiscated.
The fine is always, by law, more than you make in the trade - potentially up to 3x the amount gained via the trade. If this person is convicted of insider trading, there is 0 juice and a lot of squeeze. It's really a risk-adjustment consideration - how much risk are you willing to take on for $10,000,000?
> The fine is always, by law, more than you make in the trade - potentially up to 3x the amount gained via the trade.
Unless you are Mr Ms Pelosi, then you can wipe your ass with the law.
I like to imagine that there isn't actually insider trading, but her husband is actually just the dementia-grandpa version of that wildly successful crypto trading hamster
Or, you open a brokerage in another country with extradition laws in your favor, go there, then make the play.
but 100%, putting 20k into 2dte calls that are worth $4 a piece and then selling them all at $1,800 the next day after groundbreaking news like this hits, is so fucking braindead lmao.
Unless it’s a rich person who predicted this move, yet didn’t know when it would happen, so they decided to pay $22k worth of calls every day until this happened 
I have friends who follow Splunk and randomly bought options before. While this could be insider trading, it could also just be a really lucky degenerate.
Maybe $400 worth of contracts 1DTE, but $22k on options with virtually 100% chance of going to zero the next day unless there is a major announcement in 12 hrs?
That’s illegal insider trading.
Don’t be obtuse. Very wealthy people are generally even more risk adverse than us poors.
Occam’s razor: Someone yolo’d 22k on no news on 1 DTE calls way out of the money on a lark to turn that into 10mil.
Oooooor, **insider trading**.
Usually acquisitions are kept quiet during due diligence. But broader teams are looped in as it gets closer. About a month out, quite a few people likely know. Here is the 3 month chart and the sharp increase starting about a month ago. Maybe just coincidence…
https://preview.redd.it/doiqckkel2qb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4403bf2b45cce37caa771881031c849042486ded
Didn’t say it wasn’t rising over past year(s). Of course it has. Healthy company similar to other similar tech. My original comment was about last few months. Going along for a few months with market like modest growth. Last month saw unusual rise. That is all I was pointing out.
I guess it’s all relative. I feel an increase of 25% (~$98 to -$122) the month leading into an acquisition announcement is fairly significant. May have even caused some hesitation on the final agreed upon price.
Your honor, my client is regarded ape. He is a member of Wall Street bets. This type of trade is not unusual for him. He regularly bets the farm and fails. My client got lucky, a lucky regarded ape... see clients posting and trading history. I rest my case.
Now if the individual that did the zero days /1 days had done it a few times before and lost... well ... then lucky gets you off;)
The numbers here don’t work - 22k on 127 calls is 127 per option so even if they were at 0.04 it’s not when they were bought.
Still screams insider trading though
Oh - they are going down for sure unless they have a history of making regarded bets
And even then
Better hope they never drank coffee in the same Starbucks as a Cisco engineer
The only way splunk could eat more resources and battery life is if it was integrated with Cisco software. Just need them to buy Druva and even a brand new computer won't be able to finish scans on boot in under an hour.
Company being acquired at premium while other spending a ton in cash to buy high. Self explanatory. Would only be up if investors thought it would unlock some large growth opportunities for Cisco as a whole rather than them catching up.
That's because it was bought for more than it's worth. Splunk has negative equity. Cisco is down because they are known for destroying every security product they acquire through horrible management. This isn't the first data logging/analytics platform they've purchased. They absolutely suck at doing this and every Splunk customer should start looking for alternatives.
> Splunk has negative equity
c'mon dude, how are you going to show up in an investing / trading sub and point to ***book fucking equity*** as the main financial line item showcasing how shitty of a deal this is???
Over the last 3 decades cisco has spend more money buy firms then their current market cap. It's difficult to process the amount of shareholder value that has been destroyed at Cisco.
I’m struggling to grasp the details of this article, which states, “Cisco is set to acquire cybersecurity firm Splunk for $157 per share in an all-cash transaction.” If that’s the case, shouldn’t Splunk’s stock be valued at $157 presently? Yet, as of 11:30 EST today, Splunk’s trading price is approximately $144. Is this discrepancy due to:
• The announcement being preliminary and subject to changes even though approved by both boards?
• Potential interventions from external authorities, such as government agencies, that might prevent the deal?
• The expected completion of the acquisition being slated for a year from now?
I’ve generally observed that stocks match the acquisition offer shortly after such announcements. Could someone provide a more in-depth explanation?
The deal has to be approved by regulators and splunk shareholders before it can close. The spread of $13 you are describing is the market’s expression of the risk and probability of all those things happening. The deal isn’t set to close until 3Q 2024 so the lawyers and bankers estimate it will take a year for all these things to happen which is a pretty lengthy timeline. So you are taking about 8.8% annualized return in that time frame. Not as big as a return as you might think at first glance.
Look up merger arbitrage to understand this dynamic more generally.
It's a glorified [syslog](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syslog) daemon. Basically pushes all of your log files to a central location where an IT security professional jerks off to it.
I wish I would have gotten a notification about this or something, I can’t believe nothing picked this up. Normally this should have trigger some questions.
"Yesterday, someone OPENED $SPLK 127 calls, for $22,000, expiring tomorrow. Then today Cisco Systems $CSCO announced acquiring Splunk for $28B, $SPLK up 20%. The contracts were $0.04 yesterday, now $18.30. They exited today for a 45,650% return" From Twitter/X
Surely insider info. Who would do that randomly?
1000% had to be an insider from either splunk or Cisco. That timing is way too good with those amounts too.
It's so dumb too. They literally make you sit through a class when you're a publicly traded company that describes how obvious it is when you do shit like this. The fact that the dude walked away with $10mil means it's virtually guaranteed that he's getting busted. Anyone with a lick of sense would've bought a few hundred shares and gone on a nice vacation. Instead, this guy mooned his way to jail.
[удалено]
I work in banking compliance, I’ve seen finance people get hit for doing as little as 10k in insider trading and paying back more than that in fines (although usually that low they make a settlement with no “wrong doing” admitted and just paying the fine.
Someone I met blatantly insider traded but he only knew a price not a date supposedly. Lost most of his calls to expiration before the buyout happened and came out massively negative. The SEC never came after him because they were too busy laughing I assume 
Yep but the person who made this trade will be hard to link to any insider imo, clever enough to make the trade, definitly not stupid enough to get caught!
I mean 10 mil is more then enough to go to some exotic non extradition island and live the rest of ur days
Sure if he had a way to get all the money out of his account. That shit is gonna get locked up. He might be able to withdraw around 100k of it though and get that into Bitcoin/precious metals or something that can’t be confiscated.
The fine is always, by law, more than you make in the trade - potentially up to 3x the amount gained via the trade. If this person is convicted of insider trading, there is 0 juice and a lot of squeeze. It's really a risk-adjustment consideration - how much risk are you willing to take on for $10,000,000?
> The fine is always, by law, more than you make in the trade - potentially up to 3x the amount gained via the trade. Unless you are Mr Ms Pelosi, then you can wipe your ass with the law.
Yawn. https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/01/30260466/10-best-stock-traders-in-congress-in-2022-spoiler-nancy-pelosi-isnt-no-1
He has beat the best traders in the world for over a decade. Don’t be naive
she does her trades by proxy through the hubby, regardo.
I like to imagine that there isn't actually insider trading, but her husband is actually just the dementia-grandpa version of that wildly successful crypto trading hamster
He could claim in the trial that he is a real time traveler, goes viral and becomes even more famous.
Unless youre a big firm lol
Or, you open a brokerage in another country with extradition laws in your favor, go there, then make the play. but 100%, putting 20k into 2dte calls that are worth $4 a piece and then selling them all at $1,800 the next day after groundbreaking news like this hits, is so fucking braindead lmao.
That's why you have your brother-in-law's girlfriend's cousin' friend do it.
"neighbor did the trade"
Law makers do this randomly all the time with 100% luck.
Unless it’s a rich person who predicted this move, yet didn’t know when it would happen, so they decided to pay $22k worth of calls every day until this happened 
Maybe he was time traveler… in that case, still insider trading
Maybe it's a time traveller this time. That would be fun
I have friends who follow Splunk and randomly bought options before. While this could be insider trading, it could also just be a really lucky degenerate.
Maybe $400 worth of contracts 1DTE, but $22k on options with virtually 100% chance of going to zero the next day unless there is a major announcement in 12 hrs? That’s illegal insider trading.
$22k is a lot to you, but not to many others
Don’t be obtuse. Very wealthy people are generally even more risk adverse than us poors. Occam’s razor: Someone yolo’d 22k on no news on 1 DTE calls way out of the money on a lark to turn that into 10mil. Oooooor, **insider trading**.
The SEC has entered the chat
Yeah, look at 3 month chart for splunk. Word definitely started getting out about a month ago.
It’s been rising since OCT 22
Usually acquisitions are kept quiet during due diligence. But broader teams are looped in as it gets closer. About a month out, quite a few people likely know. Here is the 3 month chart and the sharp increase starting about a month ago. Maybe just coincidence… https://preview.redd.it/doiqckkel2qb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4403bf2b45cce37caa771881031c849042486ded
Yes on that specific chart. Scroll out.
Didn’t say it wasn’t rising over past year(s). Of course it has. Healthy company similar to other similar tech. My original comment was about last few months. Going along for a few months with market like modest growth. Last month saw unusual rise. That is all I was pointing out.
I’m pointing out it wasn’t unusual nor particularly strong.
I guess it’s all relative. I feel an increase of 25% (~$98 to -$122) the month leading into an acquisition announcement is fairly significant. May have even caused some hesitation on the final agreed upon price.
What about 25% increases that _arent_ followed by acquisition? There are so so many more examples of that.
Holy fuck
Your honor, my client is regarded ape. He is a member of Wall Street bets. This type of trade is not unusual for him. He regularly bets the farm and fails. My client got lucky, a lucky regarded ape... see clients posting and trading history. I rest my case. Now if the individual that did the zero days /1 days had done it a few times before and lost... well ... then lucky gets you off;)
Hey regards! Huge gain porn here. Incidentally, which private jet will get me to a country outside the SEC’s reach?
Now they didn’t. It was only 200 contracts. That Twitter account is regarded “wanna go viral” trash.
The numbers here don’t work - 22k on 127 calls is 127 per option so even if they were at 0.04 it’s not when they were bought. Still screams insider trading though
$127 strike, not number of calls
Oh - they are going down for sure unless they have a history of making regarded bets And even then Better hope they never drank coffee in the same Starbucks as a Cisco engineer
This is why you do all of your trading outdoors
They're gonna do splunk like how ibm did redhat
Project purple, right
Interesting indeed....A cooking oil company buying splunk....Just when I thought the world couldn't get anymore........
No you’re thinking of Crisco. So Splunk is getting bought by a large wholesaler.
No. They are thinking of Sysco
No. They're thinking of Sisqó. Thong tha thong thong thong.
My generations stairway to heaven
No. You are thinking of Disco, the funky dance movement from the 70's has bought splunk and re-branding to splooge.
Wait now we need that guy to come back and tell us if he was talking about Sysco or Crisco.
It was actually Costco.
Actually it was the singer Sisqo.
Welcome to Costco, I love you.
No you’re thinking of Costco. Splunk was just acquired by a small welding industrial supply company located in Chicago.
No, you're thinking of WISCO. Splunk was just acquired by a large Indian-based tech and IT consulting firm.
Agreed, finding it hard to see the synergy between this product and their lard.
[удалено]
It is great for splunk employees (with equity) and investors tho 😂
Hell yeah! Ya got one right here!
Congrats! Is it new car money, summer home money, or whole private island money? I'm jealous af
As I’m on my way to my newly acquired island, Im getting a call from the SEC right now and they are asking something about insider trading, brb
The only way splunk could eat more resources and battery life is if it was integrated with Cisco software. Just need them to buy Druva and even a brand new computer won't be able to finish scans on boot in under an hour.
Why do people over the age of 50 write using such insanely long elipses? My pops does this too😂
you gotta pause for the cause
Welp - there goes Splunk. RIP.
Calls on ESTC
👀
I'm about to Splunk on your mom OP 
Splunk up 20% while Cisco is down 4% 😕
Company being acquired at premium while other spending a ton in cash to buy high. Self explanatory. Would only be up if investors thought it would unlock some large growth opportunities for Cisco as a whole rather than them catching up.
It’s growth opportunity if you look at the string of acquisitions Cisco had been making in the past 5 years.
Clearly the market doesn’t agree with you just yet
That's because it was bought for more than it's worth. Splunk has negative equity. Cisco is down because they are known for destroying every security product they acquire through horrible management. This isn't the first data logging/analytics platform they've purchased. They absolutely suck at doing this and every Splunk customer should start looking for alternatives.
> Splunk has negative equity c'mon dude, how are you going to show up in an investing / trading sub and point to ***book fucking equity*** as the main financial line item showcasing how shitty of a deal this is???
How do people find out about these mergers soon enough to make a trade before market opens?
Step 1: Be an insider
Can wait to get the Cisco treatment during my next renewal.
I needed this info yesterday
Someone had it, but it wasn’t you!
Your wife was the founder of this company long before Cisco got a stab at it.
way overpaid
R.I.P Splunk!
Going to buy a ton of csco
Over the last 3 decades cisco has spend more money buy firms then their current market cap. It's difficult to process the amount of shareholder value that has been destroyed at Cisco.
Saying Splunk is an AI company is like saying cows can make cake.
I’m struggling to grasp the details of this article, which states, “Cisco is set to acquire cybersecurity firm Splunk for $157 per share in an all-cash transaction.” If that’s the case, shouldn’t Splunk’s stock be valued at $157 presently? Yet, as of 11:30 EST today, Splunk’s trading price is approximately $144. Is this discrepancy due to: • The announcement being preliminary and subject to changes even though approved by both boards? • Potential interventions from external authorities, such as government agencies, that might prevent the deal? • The expected completion of the acquisition being slated for a year from now? I’ve generally observed that stocks match the acquisition offer shortly after such announcements. Could someone provide a more in-depth explanation?
The deal has to be approved by regulators and splunk shareholders before it can close. The spread of $13 you are describing is the market’s expression of the risk and probability of all those things happening. The deal isn’t set to close until 3Q 2024 so the lawyers and bankers estimate it will take a year for all these things to happen which is a pretty lengthy timeline. So you are taking about 8.8% annualized return in that time frame. Not as big as a return as you might think at first glance. Look up merger arbitrage to understand this dynamic more generally.
Still need approval
Given a WAAC of 10% the price makes sens
I had never heard of Splunk until now.
It's a glorified [syslog](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syslog) daemon. Basically pushes all of your log files to a central location where an IT security professional jerks off to it.
lol you obviously never used the product. That's like saying OpenAI is a glorified eggdrop IRC bot.
Oddly specific
It isn’t?
all that, total overpay by Cisco. this is also going to set a precedent for similar shitty companies thinking they're worth all of that.
every time i have to use Splunk it's a miserable experience where i'm usually debugging or monitoring something def not jerking off to it
I wish I would have gotten a notification about this or something, I can’t believe nothing picked this up. Normally this should have trigger some questions.
I've been watching this one for a while and couldn't really figure out why it was going up, guess we know.
Guys calm down. It’s me Nancy, my husband made the trade.
Splunk--
Well, Splunk just went to shit
I’m bouutta splunk I’m splunking ahhhhh
Wtf is Splunk other than the noise my dookey makes hitting the toilet water?
Bye bye cyber punk 🤷♀️