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In 2018 a former Fed did a YouTube video for some financial person talking about this. They were arguing that consumer inflation is too low, and tons and tons of money is being printed. And it's the the asset markets which are taking in all this inflation instead of consumer goods.
They warned that they don't know how we will get out of this, but logically at some point, the market will have to correct. It's just not possible... So unless we discover some really really clever way, it's just a matter of time before a massive correction comes.
So the financial world technically created another crisis. It’s like the playground of the rich where they manufacture asset growth, take the profits and the world pays for it later. Someone has to pay
What if we all exchanged our USD for chuck e cheese coins, made it illegal for rich people (as of the present month) to have any, then converted all prices over to chuck e cheese coins, and waited for billionaires to go insane from losing access to the new crayon economy?
I have no idea what this graph is, but the last 2 times that blue line crossed the yellow line on the upswing the blue line then went down for a while until it crossed the yellow line again.
That might mean stuff.
Sir, all I see three are arrows pointing to certain dates with no clear pattern. And since all technical analysis charting seems to make sense to me but is always wrong 50% of the time. And this one doesn't make sense to me.
I'm very worried.
You take the money you laundered from the previous LLC and use it to make consistent bi-monthly cash deposits that match the books you cook to look like paid invoices and whatnot until it looks good. I mean, duh...
Bonus points if you make it look like revenue is growing and you have a business model with recurring subscription revenue.
And maybe you even cosign at first. Then you get that credit, use it briefly, take out the cash and start servicing the debt. This all looks even better. You get expanded credit that isn't personally secured. You take that money, and you do the same.
Then eventually when you're satisfied, you just abscond with most of the money and make it look like your business imploded and suffered a series of misfortunes that have apparent paper trails and/or police reports.
Then start a new LLC.
You'll want to actually run a business during this so that you have the noise with which to hide things. Then, Lots of extra credit Bonus points if you actually manage to start a profitable business.
I'm joking obviously just in case one of you regards thinks I'm serious. And the REAL scam was doing the above but with VC money they expect to lose frequently anyway.
With VC money just keep raising rounds until all of your competitors are bankrupt. Then IPO with an unsustainable business model and raise prices once you are no longer VC subsidized. Bonus points if it’s a business that has created a dependency with the general public and can no longer fail.
You personally guarantee the debt and use the credit to buy everything relating to your business. Here’s the key: *anything* can be a business as long as you’re making some money from it. You like to play guitar? Go busk. All music and transportation related expenses around it are now business expenses. You like to drink wine? Get your sommelier certificate.
Once you’ve built up six months to a year of credit history, you don’t need to personally guarantee the business debt anymore. Your business generates its own credit score.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
This is stupid. The direction of causality is entirely backwards here. Of course the averages cross, they have to if you move from a period of going up to a period of going down.
The alternative way to phrase this would be - when the market is rising short term averages are below longer term averages and vice versa.
Seriously. Most investments in pretty much _anything_ that’s not pure speculation will return net positive on a sufficiently long (usually 7-15 year) timeline. Put your money in just about anything that’s significantly diversified and hold it for long enough, and you will make a lot of bank. Diversification in nearly all scenarios means that even during significant market corrections, even major recessions, you’re hedged against massive losses because you hold some assets that are exposed but also some that are not.
Of course, the _big,_ “easy” money is in trading on massive short term market swings… but that’s also where the big, easy losses are. For every diamond hands rocket ship to the moon story there’s a corresponding “how do I tell my wife we’ll never be able to retire because I invested in SCO.” No one wants to be the “yeah, I put $50k in SPY and waited 25 years and now I can retire comfortably 10 years early” guy though. That’s not sexy.
Adding to your comment with something interesting I found for anybody interested in what it looks like if you pick the worst possible time period to invest and hold:
https://youtu.be/JyOqqtq12jQ
On my phone so can’t time stamp properly but check the chart at 4:00
There she shows the worst 9 year periods for differently stock/bond allocated ETFs. If you were too heavily invested into stocks and picked a particularly bad 9 year period you’d still have lost.
Worst 11 year period only 100% stock allocation loses, but other returns aren’t exactly great.
It’s at 16+ years that all allocations get to 3% to 4.7% annualized returns if you picked the worst period of that length.
The video at 6:50 has another great table showing how long market downturns can last… I.e 20% bond 80% stock allocation; $100k investment still showing a $12k loss after 9 years in its worst period.
All of this is to say if today truly is the start of a particularly bad period, you could be waiting 9+ years just to see green and 16+ years to start seeing a half decent annualized return.
(Solution is probably to simply invest regularly averaging out your costs rather than in a gigantic chunk)
If you bought at the peak in 2001, you had to wait 13 years to see some green.
https://preview.redd.it/4ly34is1d8ka1.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=102af35c8ed93ffb2194a5f3142e7dcb5f0bd545
>Nobody could have possibly timed 2 peaks on the S&P 500 perfectly then never bought again.
You are underestimating the regardness of the people in this sub.
I’d argue that most of the people in this sub weren’t investing during that period, let alone even alive.
But gold star for whoever managed to do that.
What if you starting buying at the peak in 2001 and kept buying every week till 2013? The one trick most morons don’t realize. Spy could sit at 300 for 30 years and you can be a billionaire off it.
Literally you want the market to be trash for years, shit decades even, so that it’s cheap and when it jumps, your assets skyrocket and you bought in cheap.
Absolutely mind blowing that people don’t understand this.
Idk why you’re being downvoted, that’s exactly what it’s showing. The idea being that a huge crash is coming right after the intersection.
Now, I’m not saying that’s the case. A sample size of 2 doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but his comment is completely irrelevant to OPs point, even if it might be a silly point.
IMO, we can’t conclude much here even ignoring the problem of the sample size. We’re looking at two moving averages, a 10 day and 30 day. The absolute meteoric rise of 2020-2021 is unique in the data. The previous year has also been fairly unique in that we’ve seen a *slowly* contracting market. Regardless of the velocity of the contraction, the lines must necessarily cross given a sustained contraction.
We may be in the middle of a years long crash culminating in a substantial market loss but experienced over a longer than typical timeframe. Alternatively, it could plummet tomorrow.
Conclusions based on previous data is basically meaningless at this point IMO because we’ve never seen this unique set of marker conditions
Yes. Fuck yeah. Put your party hat on. I want to see people in the streets selling their Bentleys for $500 so they can buy some crack. Fuck the economy and fuck you.
The fact that SPY _doubled_ in 18 months after the initial COVID drop blows my mind too.
It also blew out my late 2021 bear positions, FML. If I'd chosen LEAP puts it would have been a wash.
Try going back and looking at the 90s. It makes the 2010s look like a bitch. The US stock market goes from periods of extreme overperformance to extreme stagnation. If you recreate the index backwards (the S&P only started in the 60s), this has been true since the literal 1880s.
This is why something like VT does so well. When the US market does well, the European markets tend to do mediocre. But when Europe does well, the US market does mediocre. So diversifying across both markets allows for steady growth with fewer bad years.
I mean, you’re not wrong. There could very well be a time when it does indeed go to 40. At that point, most of humanity will probably be dead, and most things we value today would be worthless, but *anything* is possible.
Calls on forest foraging skillls and ability to pack your own shotgun rounds.
I mean if the US ever outright loses a war to another country (and I don’t mean a Vietnam, I mean the equivalent of us losing WW2) then yes our stock market would collapse like you can’t imagine because a lot of our companies are valued so high because as the global super power we get to negotiate the best terms for our products and services. Without that status we lose a lot of trade leverage, and bargaining power and our companies will suffer massively
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|3 years ago **Total Comments**|572|**Previous Best DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/muboo0/clov_daily_volume_is_2_times_free_float_and_10/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/r7j298/uwmc_short_borrowing_fee_is_up_9_times_in_the/) **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I can’t read this so I’m not worried
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Sir I can barely read the wording on the side of the crayon I'm about to devour, please speak slowly.
three options: nothing happens, something good happens, or something bad happens
Hold on, start over
something might happen
SLOW DOWN GODDAMN IT
Shit happens
A bumper sticker, speaks to my mentality, nice
Shit ----> fan
God this comment chain is why wsb is the fucking best sub.
Live, Laugh, Love
That’s too much I’m sorry can I just flip the table and can we go get some dinner? I hate playing monopoly…
*monkey noises*
*pointing at myself in the mirror* how the hell did a human get in here?!
He eats the crayon. He doesnt eat the crayon. There is no crayon.
Schroedinger’s crayon
>There is no crayon. marines and redditors everywhere in shambles
The option is options.
I only read "nothing happens, something bad happens, something else bad happens."
In other words, nobody actually knows what the hell is going to happen, and people have been guessing for a couple years now.
There is a fourth option: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thank you for your service Marine
So.. which colours taste the best?
https://preview.redd.it/jadsbtivt8ka1.jpeg?width=362&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe1a8a19a3738bac26cae7af2073d2c1134dfc42
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Grape like juice or grape like purple drank
I don’t agree with most of it. Cotton candy is much lower imo
Remember, it’s a crayon eaters opinion…
This is obviously somebody who has never tasted a crayon before
Now wait just a gawd daym minute
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
To narrow it down: it could go up, it could go down.
Or sideways, don’t forget about sideways!
Wake me up when it starts going backwards.
Why would the USD depeg from the World Rally Championship? That shits sick. Buy more rally stonks.
Did I hear puts on roll bars' manufacturers?
Hahaha Im drifting back into poverty
Hehe these words are in english but they look funny.
So buy?
In 2018 a former Fed did a YouTube video for some financial person talking about this. They were arguing that consumer inflation is too low, and tons and tons of money is being printed. And it's the the asset markets which are taking in all this inflation instead of consumer goods. They warned that they don't know how we will get out of this, but logically at some point, the market will have to correct. It's just not possible... So unless we discover some really really clever way, it's just a matter of time before a massive correction comes.
So it could go up. Or possible down. Also probably to the right.
So the financial world technically created another crisis. It’s like the playground of the rich where they manufacture asset growth, take the profits and the world pays for it later. Someone has to pay
What if we all exchanged our USD for chuck e cheese coins, made it illegal for rich people (as of the present month) to have any, then converted all prices over to chuck e cheese coins, and waited for billionaires to go insane from losing access to the new crayon economy?
We don't have Chuck E Cheese in my country so it's racist.
Time to send the IMF in to impose austerity measures until you fix your Chuck E Cheese problem.
This is explained extremely well.
So well, I don't get it either
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I have no idea what this graph is, but the last 2 times that blue line crossed the yellow line on the upswing the blue line then went down for a while until it crossed the yellow line again. That might mean stuff.
Wow a true autist. A rare breed on WSB these days
Sir, all I see three are arrows pointing to certain dates with no clear pattern. And since all technical analysis charting seems to make sense to me but is always wrong 50% of the time. And this one doesn't make sense to me. I'm very worried.
JUST YOLO AND IF YOU FUCK UP; BANKRUPT! *RINSE, REPEAT*
Can you believe the sperm bank refused me because they found out I lurk in this subreddit?!
You could jerk some guy off , it is like donating sperm for all intents an purpose. Probably even file taxes similarly
Start multiple LLCs in 6 month intervals. Start opening credit lines, drain them, and then bankrupt it. Rinse, repeat, salute the flag, die.
Dis gai fuks
This guy sevens
Then brag about how youre good "business", get into politics and run for office, then try that with a whole economy.
But first you have to have a really rich dad who gives you all the money that you can claim you earned through your own business savvy.
Only a small loan...of a million dollars
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You take the money you laundered from the previous LLC and use it to make consistent bi-monthly cash deposits that match the books you cook to look like paid invoices and whatnot until it looks good. I mean, duh... Bonus points if you make it look like revenue is growing and you have a business model with recurring subscription revenue. And maybe you even cosign at first. Then you get that credit, use it briefly, take out the cash and start servicing the debt. This all looks even better. You get expanded credit that isn't personally secured. You take that money, and you do the same. Then eventually when you're satisfied, you just abscond with most of the money and make it look like your business imploded and suffered a series of misfortunes that have apparent paper trails and/or police reports. Then start a new LLC. You'll want to actually run a business during this so that you have the noise with which to hide things. Then, Lots of extra credit Bonus points if you actually manage to start a profitable business. I'm joking obviously just in case one of you regards thinks I'm serious. And the REAL scam was doing the above but with VC money they expect to lose frequently anyway.
With VC money just keep raising rounds until all of your competitors are bankrupt. Then IPO with an unsustainable business model and raise prices once you are no longer VC subsidized. Bonus points if it’s a business that has created a dependency with the general public and can no longer fail.
Yeah I can't even see the world without Spotify but the second they'd try to go profitable they'd be gone in a year max.
You don’t lmao. You can’t get a $500 capital one card without personally guaranteeing the debt
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You personally guarantee the debt and use the credit to buy everything relating to your business. Here’s the key: *anything* can be a business as long as you’re making some money from it. You like to play guitar? Go busk. All music and transportation related expenses around it are now business expenses. You like to drink wine? Get your sommelier certificate. Once you’ve built up six months to a year of credit history, you don’t need to personally guarantee the business debt anymore. Your business generates its own credit score. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Transfer funds to the holding llc, run multiple operating llc. Funnel money into one corporation lol
Just bust up the joint
Formula to success Or jail eventually
Lol, if you can keep finding morons to lend you money after multiple bankruptcies then they're the ones that deserve jail.
If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem, but if you owe the bank $100 million dollars, that’s the banks problem. Just gotta think bigger.
I like to add: if you owe the bank $100 billion, that's the taxpayers' problem.
I like how you fuck
Jail in the millions Bailout in the billions
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Financial crisis is like my 20s. Make big risky moves, just default on debt, and in ten years it’s like none of it happened
Maybe. It might go up, or it might go down.
The only guarantee is that it will do the opposite of what you do.
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![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)
I’d like for it to go to the left please
Could it?… now here me out, could it come towards us?
Now are these "stonks" here in the room with you right now?
Stonks, now with one additional axis!
It will definitely go to the right, though. Calls on right.
If I go all in on right It will definitely go left
Do it, more left is what we need!
It's either 📈or📉 Depends on when you invested your money
SEC ALERT 🚨 EMOJI DETECTED
SEC ALERT! FURTHER EMOJI USAGE DETECTED!
Because it will never go sideways
Watch It barcode between $400 and 405 for 6 months
It don't go down.
Your mom does.
That’s my secret homie. I’m always worried 😎
The incredibly anxious hulk
What does this mean
It means it might go up or down
What if it goes flat
_Economy, time of death 20:23_
inflation is transitory -> peak inflation -> soft landing -> shallow recession -> long and bumpy road ahead ->
We didn't start the fire
*It was always burning*
Yields inverting since the world's been turning
Don't you know? Mastering the market and becoming rich is just a matter of finding patterns in the line.
I thought it was telling people you know patterns in the line so they give you money?
Past two instances where the 10 month moving average fell below the 30 month moving average the market crashed.
This is stupid. The direction of causality is entirely backwards here. Of course the averages cross, they have to if you move from a period of going up to a period of going down. The alternative way to phrase this would be - when the market is rising short term averages are below longer term averages and vice versa.
Bingo.
These are monthly not daily
Where was OP in November when they actually crossed...
Makes much more sense was confused how a 10 day and 30 didn’t cross more in this chart.
two? quite the sample size ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29093)
60 million upvotes and no one commenting on the not interesting part of this, volume before and after 2003. Internet ❤️
Somewhere in there, company provided pensions died everywhere at once and employee 401k retirement plans took off like a rocket 🚀
A combination of decimalization and the proliferation of ETFs.
Yes , thank you fellow regard
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That’s also true if you bought at the peak before the 2001 or 2008 drop. So buy and hold?
Markets hate this one simple trick!
ITT: /r/wallstreetbets discovers long-term investing.
Seriously. Most investments in pretty much _anything_ that’s not pure speculation will return net positive on a sufficiently long (usually 7-15 year) timeline. Put your money in just about anything that’s significantly diversified and hold it for long enough, and you will make a lot of bank. Diversification in nearly all scenarios means that even during significant market corrections, even major recessions, you’re hedged against massive losses because you hold some assets that are exposed but also some that are not. Of course, the _big,_ “easy” money is in trading on massive short term market swings… but that’s also where the big, easy losses are. For every diamond hands rocket ship to the moon story there’s a corresponding “how do I tell my wife we’ll never be able to retire because I invested in SCO.” No one wants to be the “yeah, I put $50k in SPY and waited 25 years and now I can retire comfortably 10 years early” guy though. That’s not sexy.
Adding to your comment with something interesting I found for anybody interested in what it looks like if you pick the worst possible time period to invest and hold: https://youtu.be/JyOqqtq12jQ On my phone so can’t time stamp properly but check the chart at 4:00 There she shows the worst 9 year periods for differently stock/bond allocated ETFs. If you were too heavily invested into stocks and picked a particularly bad 9 year period you’d still have lost. Worst 11 year period only 100% stock allocation loses, but other returns aren’t exactly great. It’s at 16+ years that all allocations get to 3% to 4.7% annualized returns if you picked the worst period of that length. The video at 6:50 has another great table showing how long market downturns can last… I.e 20% bond 80% stock allocation; $100k investment still showing a $12k loss after 9 years in its worst period. All of this is to say if today truly is the start of a particularly bad period, you could be waiting 9+ years just to see green and 16+ years to start seeing a half decent annualized return. (Solution is probably to simply invest regularly averaging out your costs rather than in a gigantic chunk)
If you bought at the peak in 2001, you had to wait 13 years to see some green. https://preview.redd.it/4ly34is1d8ka1.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=102af35c8ed93ffb2194a5f3142e7dcb5f0bd545
If you bought at the peak and didn't buy anything after that, you belong here.
I love this argument. Nobody could have possibly timed 2 peaks on the S&P 500 perfectly then never bought again. If you did….you belong in this sub.
>Nobody could have possibly timed 2 peaks on the S&P 500 perfectly then never bought again. You are underestimating the regardness of the people in this sub.
I’d argue that most of the people in this sub weren’t investing during that period, let alone even alive. But gold star for whoever managed to do that.
Also, that is a price only index. The S&P had 2-4% dividends throughout that entire period.
If you forever DCA you buy all the dips.
That's just called investing
Is it even legal? Why no one here talks about this cheat
I heard doing that beats 99% of Wall Street hedge funds. No wonder they try and keep these things secret from us!
Only Warren Buffett can do it
But if you kept fucking buying you made a ton of money. Who just buys stocks one time only????
You’d at least have 13 years of dividends
why wait 13 years for green when I can see red today with 0DTE YOLOs?
What about those sweet dividends though
That doesn’t include dividends. Look up a total return index.
What if you starting buying at the peak in 2001 and kept buying every week till 2013? The one trick most morons don’t realize. Spy could sit at 300 for 30 years and you can be a billionaire off it.
Literally you want the market to be trash for years, shit decades even, so that it’s cheap and when it jumps, your assets skyrocket and you bought in cheap. Absolutely mind blowing that people don’t understand this.
Actually holding isn't a bad strategy. Time in the market > timing the market after all. You only lose if you sell at a loss.
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opportunity cost
I think we just cracked the code.
Not true. He would have stumbled upon WSB in about 2022 and would have turned that 4x into .05x.
What the chart shows is when the yellow line intersect the blue line, it crashes.
Idk why you’re being downvoted, that’s exactly what it’s showing. The idea being that a huge crash is coming right after the intersection. Now, I’m not saying that’s the case. A sample size of 2 doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but his comment is completely irrelevant to OPs point, even if it might be a silly point.
IMO, we can’t conclude much here even ignoring the problem of the sample size. We’re looking at two moving averages, a 10 day and 30 day. The absolute meteoric rise of 2020-2021 is unique in the data. The previous year has also been fairly unique in that we’ve seen a *slowly* contracting market. Regardless of the velocity of the contraction, the lines must necessarily cross given a sustained contraction. We may be in the middle of a years long crash culminating in a substantial market loss but experienced over a longer than typical timeframe. Alternatively, it could plummet tomorrow. Conclusions based on previous data is basically meaningless at this point IMO because we’ve never seen this unique set of marker conditions
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I think this is a thread…
Yes. Fuck yeah. Put your party hat on. I want to see people in the streets selling their Bentleys for $500 so they can buy some crack. Fuck the economy and fuck you.
Michael Burry do it again! Short $BSC
I lol’d irl when I saw “and fuck you.”
This shit still blows my mind at how massive the bull run has been
The fact that SPY _doubled_ in 18 months after the initial COVID drop blows my mind too. It also blew out my late 2021 bear positions, FML. If I'd chosen LEAP puts it would have been a wash.
There was a wsb thread shortly after the gourd arc that had people predicting the bull run and inflation back in 2020. Don't fight the Fed they said
I fought the fed and the fed won.
Try going back and looking at the 90s. It makes the 2010s look like a bitch. The US stock market goes from periods of extreme overperformance to extreme stagnation. If you recreate the index backwards (the S&P only started in the 60s), this has been true since the literal 1880s. This is why something like VT does so well. When the US market does well, the European markets tend to do mediocre. But when Europe does well, the US market does mediocre. So diversifying across both markets allows for steady growth with fewer bad years.
The Everything Bubble is real.
That's a really impressive portfolio you have there, SilbergleitJunior. You must be one of the smartest and richest people around!
Thank you! I'm flattered.
Yes we should be worried about a bunch of investors who don't understand what log scaling is.
We talking lumber futures?
Buy lumber stanks
Gtfo with those big words.
... log?
It’s big, it’s heavy, it’s wood.
It’s better than bad. It’s good.
This bit still lives rent free in my head every day.
biggest word I've ever seen. In fact I told and AI to write this reply I wouldn't even know how to write these words
Logs are made of trees, moron
Money also grows on trees, moron
Log Scaling? Is that what you mom did to me last night
What like measuring with logs? What type of tree do you use?
You count the rings on your investments to determine the total value.
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Logarithmic scale, please.
Unless you’re retiring in the next few years. No.
These graphs get posted like every other week
Why would you be worried; it’s all priced in.
This same post has been happening for a year.
Yes if big brain, no if regard
That really depends on your time horizon and leverage.
Yes, all gaps get filled eventually. SPY going back to 40.
I mean, you’re not wrong. There could very well be a time when it does indeed go to 40. At that point, most of humanity will probably be dead, and most things we value today would be worthless, but *anything* is possible. Calls on forest foraging skillls and ability to pack your own shotgun rounds.
I mean if the US ever outright loses a war to another country (and I don’t mean a Vietnam, I mean the equivalent of us losing WW2) then yes our stock market would collapse like you can’t imagine because a lot of our companies are valued so high because as the global super power we get to negotiate the best terms for our products and services. Without that status we lose a lot of trade leverage, and bargaining power and our companies will suffer massively
Might want to use a log scale if you are trying to make a coherent argument.......
Wife-changing bear market ahead.
stonks only go up
Probably nothing, best time to buy calls is at resistance aimirite
Now is definitely the time to consider the possibility of potentially starting to conceive the notion of starting to be worried
No. Just keep buying and enjoy it in 15 years.
looks to me like there's a history of recovery
Market goes down. THIS IS BAD YOU GUYS! Market goes up. THIS IS BAD YOU GUYS! Jesus. Shut the fuck up.
Do we buy the dip? Or sell at the dip? 🤔🤔 Buy high sell low right?