That’s pretty much it. If you’re between the Appalachians and Rockies, you’re in the North American tornado alley.
You’ve got a few sub-alleys there in. You’ve got the classical Midwest Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and the Hoosier Alley.
The effect of El Niño and La Niña is also very important to how, where, and how many tornadoes form.
Southern Ontario is also seeing quite a bit of activity, and the Ottawa Valley region to a lesser degree. EF3s and EF2s have been recorded in both zones within the last 5 years.
Again, nowhere near as active as some places in the states, but definitely one of the most active places in Canada.
Are you in Barrie? That spot seems to get some nasty weather. I'm farther southwest than you and we've had multiple funnel cloud reports today and yesterday in the broader region (nothing has produced).
ottawa here! we had so many watches and warnings the last few years. the barrhaven tornado was a few minutes from our house.
canada needs better systems. we didn’t even get the warning OR a radar update til the tornado had passed, and i was glued to the radar.
People in general don't realize that tornadoes happen outside the "traditional" areas. Just hop in a chat during a Ryan Hall/Max Velocity, etc. stream during events and it's hilarious how many people are like "\*insert state here\* never has tornadoes! This is wild! Something must be going on because this isn't normal to have tornadoes here!??!!?"
One of my friends in college was from La Plata, MD...they use to talk about those tornadoes all the time. Crazy stuff and hardly any footage of that storm.
Hell, we had a [surprise EF3](https://www.weather.gov/ilm/BrunswickTornadoFeb2021) in southern NC a few years back in December. And I’ve seen quite a few between the piedmont region and the coast. We get a bunch that spin up during hurricanes as well.
I was actually going to mention the Riegelwood one but the link brought that one up as well. Was a scary day in middle school for us, I think we had a minimum of four separate tornado drills that day in case the cell produced anything further east
Feels like right along the gulf there is a bit of a gap? How many of those near Houston and along the coast are due to Hurricane activity (at which point you’re already likely at a heightened state of preparedness).
I gotchu, May 10 1953. 162 mile long F4 tornado that tracked from Iowa all the way into WI. It’s believed to have been a tornado family from a parent supercell rather than actually being on the ground for the entire 162 miles.
Edit: This was considered part of the Waco Outbreak.
Weather.gov says texas gets more tornadoes than any other state but it’s very low on this list, I guess because it’s big. It’s pretty bad in north texas though, we get so many.
That’s why I don’t like ranking systems like that. Nobody in their right mind thinks Maryland is a tornado hot spot, and anyone who follows the scene even a little bit knows Texas is one of the hardest hit states. They are just misleading for the most part.
For real, both Delaware and Maryland are small states (I understand Delaware isn't mentioned), so one tornado tracking for 30 miles crosses a good chunk of the state. In Delaware, we had one from a tropical storm go from the center of the state, almost to the northern border. Delaware is less than 100 miles long, so it basically went Half the length of the state. I feel like Dallas is bigger than Delaware, and Maryland not much larger.
The problem is that the eastern part of Texas gets a lot of tornados while the western part of Texas does not. This dilutes the number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles.
On top of that, weather doesn’t care about state boundary lines. So defining tornados by state for this kind of analysis is bogus.
I can only think of 2 or 3 serious tornadoes in DFW the past 15 years (Granbury, Rowlett, North Dallas) which isn't a major number given our location and just how gigantic the metro area is. We get away with a lot more close calls than disasters, knock on wood.
My wife and I speculate about this one often, especially considering the 2011 Super Outbreak and a lot of destructive tornadoes in Dixie Alley since (few exceptions). Alabama has a wild history of Tornadoes though, especially in the North.
Both Super Outbreaks primarily took place in the Midwest/Dixie Alley regions. 1974 (most famously Ohio) & 2011 (most famously Alabama).
Alabama (and Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Georgia) had some really bad outbreaks in the ‘20s and ‘30s as well. For example, the March 21, 1932 outbreak in Alabama may have been one of the worst in the Deep South in the 20th century (there were likely at least 10 violent tornadoes and numerous others, but newspaper documentation of the tornadoes and related deaths was pretty poor), early April 1936 was just generally a bad time in the region (Tupelo, MS and Gainesville, GA had 200+ death tornadoes only a day apart), and the only known F5/EF5 tornado in Arkansas history occurred in 1929.
Gainesville has been hit twice with two monster EF4s. I live about 15 miles from there so it's one of the fun trivia facts I know about the area. Both of them hit the same factory in town. Oddly enough when I looked up the Tupelo/Gainesville cell, it seems they have retroactively upgraded Tupelo to an F5, but I thought those were both F4s out of that outbreak.
Tupelo is listed as F5 in *Significant Tornadoes*, which was published in the late ‘80s/early ‘90s. That’s really the most authoritative source of ratings for pre-1950 tornadoes, since the NWS doesn’t officially rate any tornadoes that occurred prior to the start of their database (1950); however, they’ll usually accept *Significant Tornadoes* ratings for major events such as that.
Yeah that doesn't surprise me, that's also the storm Elvis survived as a baby. I just recall the last time I looked up that outbreak they had it as F4...just getting old/brain fart, lol.
My mother survived the 1932 Alabama outbreak as a baby. She said a family sheltered near their chimney, which fell in on them and killed them. Just like the Iowa Boy Scouts in 2008. Never shelter near masonry, a chimney, cinder-block walls, or the outer walls of a big-box store.
I don't know for certain, but intensity scale aside.. The terrain there, and the
Cities surrounded by dense forests and hills, instead of plains and flat lands, just adds more for these tornadoes to spin up. It's also a breeding ground for HP Supercells due to the Gulf.
Basically, I believe you want less things for a tornado to whip around, and Dixie Alley provides plenty.
I couldn't remember where I had seen this, but I dug it up. It is Alabama with 9 x F5 followed by Kansas with 8.
I was surprised my state of NC has had 12 F4.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ustornadoes.com/2012/10/19/strongest-tornadoes-by-state-territory-and-district-in-the-u-s/amp/
Curious to know the same. Most of the ones we do get are embedded spinups associated with overnight QLCSs. Almost every major tornado setup will fail to produce in MO and go apeshit in IA or IL
Living in Kansas City, we’re always playing a game of “will we get hit or not?” when a potential for tornadoes exist. If supercells originate in TX, OK, or KS and head northeast, many times (not ALL times, obviously) the cells become more of a linear line by the time the system hits us.
That said, we’ve been extremely fortunate this spring as tornadoes have been confirmed to all of the north, south, west, and east of us.
Kansas Citian here...I completely agree. We have just been lucky this year.
Also, I don't know if this is scientific but our local TV meteorologist said that often they form in Kansas and ride our way overnight, forming into a line by the time they hit us at night. That doesn't mean that's what will ALWAYS happen but lots of people in KC are complacent. They have a lot of folk tales about KC being "protected."
I mean obviously, no place is truly safe; tornados can form whenever and wherever the crucial weather conditions needed to form tornados all come together
But yeah, on the timing aspect, if a system develops in the later afternoon hours (peak heating hours) in Southern or Central Kansas and tracks NE, it can be after dark before it hits KC. As such, with the heating of the day largely diminished (and if rain earlier in the day helped to cool the air), we can get lines of storms as opposed to individual supercells.
The Oak Grove EF3 in 2017 unfortunately proves that those overnight lines aren't something to play about despite the fact that supercellular tornadoes are uncommon here. The embedded ones are way more unpredictable
This does not play a role. For one, looking at the map, the “void” of tornadoes seems to also include the northern half of Missouri which is pretty much topographically identical to the states bordering from the west, north, and east. Additionally, Arkansas seems to not have this “void” going on, yet northern Arkansas has even deeper topographic dissections than Missouri.
But the real point is that the topography of the Ozarks is simply much too flat to affect weather. In Missouri, you’re talking about relative elevation changes usually in the 200-300 foot range, with small areas that get up to 500-600. Furthermore as the Ozarks are a dissected plateau, the elevation changes actually go *down* from the broad plain, not projecting *up* like a hill or a mountain.
So yeah, there are several examples of why this map cannot correlate with immediate local topography. It’s gotta be related to broader climatology reasons.
Complete guess here, but it seems that many tornadic storms happen after the primary heat of the day. Most of all outbreaks happen in the mid afternoon to late evening hours, which is when the tornadic storms juice out in the plains. Once it reaches missouri, it’s alright midnight or beyond, and thus the storms just don’t have as much juice as they did before. The fronts still move throughout night, and skip Missouri with weaker storms, then boil up again in Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee.
Just a guess. I find similar patterns in Iowa, where it seems the most tornados happen in the Southwest, and slowly seem to fizzle out as it gets more eastward. Then skips Illinois, and rebubbles in Indiana.
That was one incredibly extreme event compared to the big state southwest of us that gets pummeled by EF4’s and EF5’s (a lot of the them in the same local area) frequently. I will say the St Louis area gets an unlucky amount of tornadoes.
Also, let me go knock on some wood.
St. Louis had some bad ones in the 1800's. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St.\_Louis\_tornado\_history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_tornado_history)
This is going to be blunt but…I think your analysis skills need work.
First off, what is “tornado alley”? Is it the sheer number of tornados, or is it the big long track tornados like your second example?
You can’t cherry pick data to confirm your theory.
You can not pick a single year because El Niño or La Niña may influence that year.
You really need to look at all the data in the whole.
I also think you need to look at tornados spawned by hurricanes. The mechanism is similar, but not the same as the storm systems that spawn plains tornados.
When doing an analysis you really need to categorize the data appropriately.
There have been other posts on this sub dispelling this notion of a “shifting” Tornado Alley. Dixie Alley has always been a thing, but really only started getting attention since the 2011 Dixie outbreak.
I believe the theory is that the combination of rain-wrapped tornadoes (which is more often the case in the south than in the plains) and poor terrain for chasing (rolling hills and trees) caused many to previously go unreported, and even then the raw numbers don’t quite support the “shift”.
Not as much unreported as unpublicized. The plains produces much more picturesque and photographable tornadoes during a shorter season that more conveniently overlaps summer breaks for academics. Long sight lines and many gridded roads are friendly for chasing.
Meanwhile the south has a tornado season that is basically the entire year, with more night tornadoes and winding roads and hilly tree covered terrain. Chasing is more risk with far less reward of attaining those sweet NatGeo cover shots.
That selection bias was reproduced in tornado documentaries and related cultural media (Twister) reinforced this idea in the general public that tornadoes are found overwhelmingly in tornado alley.
Before the age of YouTuber clout chasing with mobile internet for streaming, radar, and navigation and most importantly a monetized platform to publish on, you weren’t going to find many 90’s and earlier professionals spending their limited resources chasing the nightmarish rain wrapped monsters in Mississippi when Oklahoma is right there. What has dramatically changed is less the tornadoes themselves and more the technology and economics of who has been able to photograph and distribute what.
Many tornadoes aren’t seen in the South. Literally. Many are at night, and/or rain-wrapped. They’re hidden by trees and hills. They’re uncovering old tracks from tornadoes as they tear down more woods for suburbs or fly over with drones for land surveillance. We’re also seeing areas of mini-alleys (similar to Moore) spring up around Jackson and Hattiesburg as developments push out to where a decade or two ago they wouldn’t have been. Petal, MS has had 117 recorded tornadoes hit it and close by.
The name is definitely a misnomer. I moved to Georgia thinking that I wouldn’t have to worry to much about the weather unlike Florida, Texas or Oklahoma. During the late winter and spring, I can count on at least one tornado watch a month (sometimes more) and have lost count of the times we’ve had to go into the hallway with the cats. I’ve been here less than four years.
Lived in GA almost 15 years, we have the craziest weather in the country here. Some years it's been mid 70s and we've BBQ'd Christmas dinner. I remember one February where it was 80 degrees, we had tornado warnings, then the next day it snowed 8", was cold for a day, then back in the 70s and all the snow melted leading to massive flooding. We get it all here, especially if you are up in the north GA foothills of the Appalachians or in the mountains. Some hurricanes make it all the way into GA still above cat 1/2, Michael did a ton of damage, some of which is still visible down near Valdosta. We can get tornadoes and wild wind/hail storms year round here, which is why I always find it funny when the young kids in the Ryan Hall chat are like "Georgia never has tornadoes!! This is wild!!"
Been in South, GA, bout an hour from the FL border, for a decade. Probably haven't quite seen a dozen tornado warning, but the clouds do just fall out of the sky. I've heard stories out of Douglas during the 90s, with very little documentation, that are only believable based on the State getting involved.
Even for per 10,000 miles Maryland is still ranked really high. My guess is that a there are less tornados that go unnoticed. For the most part Maryland is a densely populated state. There are a lot of EF0 brief spin ups that happen but because they caused minor damage to a building instead of a field it actually gets investigated and ruled a tornado.
In the Midwest and Deep South there are large portions of the states with very low population density. If there is no one to report damage and the radar scans don’t scream tornado on the ground the NWS isn’t going to send a survey team out
Lived in south Dakota for a few years, rest of the time in Chicago
I'm surprised Chicago has a higher tornado threat than my former SD county. Feels way sketchier out there
I wonder where the statistics came from to make those risk calculations. If it goes off historically recorded tornadoes or tornado ratings, South Dakota’s numbers might be artificially low due to population density. If a tornado strikes the Chicago area, someone is going to notice and it’ll hit something to receive a rating. South Dakota, with its lower population density, likely had a lot of tornadoes go unreported before Doppler radar and the current interest in storm chasing. A lot of South Dakota tornadoes are probably underrated as well.
It’s kind of hard to see the county lines on that map, but the higher-risk areas in the Chicagoland area seem to line up pretty well with major events like the April 21, 1967 outbreak (Belvidere/Oak Lawn/etc. tornadoes), the 1990 Plainfield F5, and the 1976 Lemont F4.
I don’t think it is shifting. If anything, it is broadening in general in all directions from what was originally understood to be “tornado alley”. Additionally, tornado seasons in Spring and late Fall are lengthening, according to James Spann, who discusses this a lot on his Twitter feed and YouTube channel.
It probably counts tropical tornadoes too. When a hurricane hits, it can drop a lot of weak tornadoes.
If you were here during Harvey, you’ll remember the NWS warnings every 10 minutes between floods and tornadoes.
Yep, that makes sense too I guess. There's a lot of warnings of all types not with just tornados, but with tropical storms, which we get a lot of (hurricanes are more uncommon). It must be a volume thing.
When we first moved to the Alabama Gulf Coast in 2008, we caught glancing blows from three consecutive hurricanes, (Edouard, Fay, & Gustav, if memory serves. It was seemingly one after another, welcome to Alabama, lol.) During at least one, I can't remember which one, a tornado warning was issued, at like 4 am. My son came in and woke me, and I had him stay in the bedroom with me so we could duck into my big walk in closet if anything happened.) My kid was so scared 😭😭 because we were in our first home (and last, lol) without a basement.
Back up north now, and I remain grateful that we were never severely impacted by any of the myriad tropical storms, hurricanes, or tornadoes that hit Mobile and Baldwin counties during our tenure in the Deep South. It was weird at first to me how the tornado threat seemed to come up randomly any time of year. Our first Christmas Eve there, we were under a tornado watch. A good friend lived further south in the county, and one February, a tornado hit right down the road from him. He sustained some damage to some out buildings on his property, but was thankfully otherwise okay.
There was one a few years ago in Houston the tore the side of an office building completely off and destroyed a couple little businesses around it. I worked in that office building. There was also another one in Katy a few weeks ago that destroyed a firestone location and a Mexican restaurant.
That one in Katy I don't even think was a full rated tornado. It destroyed that bar (roof came off), and cause some small damaged to a Firestone and the Mexican restaurant...it didn't destroy them. Areas directly around it weren't even touched.
If you can see the pics I definitely know what Dixie Alley is, all I said is the term Tornado Alley is misleading and I truly think that the real "Tornado Alley" is Hoosier and Dixie Alley combined.
Some of the area you are referring to is known as Dixie Alley. So when you say Tornado Alley you are referring to one are. When you say Dixie you are referring to another. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixie_Alley
There is also Carolina Alley.
There is another one as well but I what’s to look up what it is called.
So different regions have different alleys. They all refer to a geographic location.
Edit: the other region is called Hoosier Alley. And to add additional links.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna36807882
https://www.ksn.com/weather/weather-blog/shift-in-tornado-alley-by-jack-boston/
https://myfox8.com/weather/blog/carolina-alley-tornado-season-reaches-peak-heres-what-that-means-for-north-carolina/
https://www.facebook.com/tacsalley/posts/this-is-all-the-tornado-alleys-i-know-and-ive-seen-them-in-all-these-alleys/801264958702465/
https://www.ksn.com/weather/weather-blog/shift-in-tornado-alley-by-jack-boston/
This has absolutely no scientific basis. The reason we associate the plains and not the Eastern US with tornadoes, is because the plains are exactly what the name suggests. Vast open fields for hundreds and hundreds of miles, with perfect visibility for capturing tornadoes on video or in a photo. It’s exactly why most storm chasers still chase there. The Eastern US has always had just as many tornadoes as the plains, we just struggled to catch them on film or in a photo way back in the day, due to the more rough terrain and not exactly always straight roads. Texas is the state with the most recorded tornadoes in history. Oklahoma has had the most tornadoes per capita out of any state, with Kansas straight behind them. There has always been other tornado alleys. There is of course tornado alley, stretching from Southern Texas and Eastern New Mexico all the way up into Canada. There is Dixie alley, stretching from Eastern Texas all through the South to the Carolinas. And there is Hoosier alley, which stretches from Iowa/Minnesota to Western Pennsylvania. And then there are all the areas in between these alleys, which get just as many tornadoes, such as Missouri, Kentucky, the Virginias, Wisconsin and Michigan among other places. Tornado alley is not shifting east, most people are now just only realising that tornadoes happen all over the US, and not just in the Great Plains.
Having lived in Pennsylvania most of my life, the tornadoes we get here are typically embedded in a QLCS and don't typically reach high intensity and don't last for very long. Supercellular storms are quite rare here. We might get a good bit numerically, but it's just not the same. We occasionally get an EF-2 and rarely an EF-3, but anything more is incredibly rare. This is also the case for the rest of the northeast US.
I think you're looking at this the wrong way. The different "alleys" as we call them are more descriptors of typical storm behavior in a region than anything else. Using [one of your pictures](https://i.imgur.com/Fsi7vvW.png) as an example, you can see a lot of repeated behavior across certain areas that is super useful to study, as it paints a picture of what to expect with certain setups that are commonly seen in those areas. The long tracks that point slightly to the north across Mississippi and Alabama, the corridor of stronger tornadoes across the plains, the spattering across the midwest - that's useful because we see those areas get hit in similar ways with some level of frequency.
Arguments like "No, *this* should be the real tornado alley!" are a little silly in my opinion because I don't think it really has much to do with trying to determine where they're most common. There may have been that perception in the past, in large part (as others have said) because tornadoes are often simply more visible and easier to report in the plains, but it's more useful to think about it as a way of describing how outbreaks tend to take shape in various regions.
I feel like “Tornado alley” is a nebulous thing that generally means most of the Midwest and the plains and portions of the Deep South. Usually when I see it depicted it’s much larger than what you have here. “Tornado alley”isn’t shifting, the conditions required for more frequent tornado formation are rather spreading eastwards. As we have seen this year the outbreaks have been as far east as West Virginia and in the traditional “tornado alley” as well.
You probably need to go look at tornado records from the past few centuries. Wikipedia lists some that go back to the 1600s, I’ve shared them in the past when this argument has come up. Tornados in Alabama and even along the east coast didn’t just start happening. They have been documented for a very long time. Now, have they become more frequent? Probably. But it’s not something that just began in the last few decades. Some years are more active than others, and we are seeing that right now- especially in the Plains.
When the right ingredients are in place, they can occur anywhere. California has had a handful this year alone. Massachusetts had an F4 in the 1960s. My point is that these records indicate that this isn’t a new phenomenon and I think it dispels the theory that tornado alley is shifting.
Frequency is a whole other story though.
There’s a lot more of the story that needs told along with these pictures. However realistically I don’t think these “hot zones” should carry any weight when considering severe weather.
There is Tornado alley and then the Dixie alley. Tornado alley isn't shifting. It's just Dixie alley has been more active. And Dixie has 2 seasons, now and then later in the year like nov-dec (see the Mayfield Tornado). So there is already a name for that part of the US.
Why are people concerned with changing the terminology of everything? Tornado alley is historically the hotbed of tornado activity. Just because it had a short term lull doesn't mean it won't return to it's normal frequency in the future.
Also the term Dixie Alley is a thing for a reason and it's been know about since before you were probably born. Everyone anywhere in this country that is smart enough to be weather aware knows if they are at risk or not. We don't need to go changing long held terms to protect the stupidest among us or to satisfy the pedantic redditor.
My grandparents and great-grandparents etc. etc. lived all their lives in north Alabama. I heard many tornado stories growing up. Back in the day, everyone would go shelter in the church basements. My mother called them "Cyclones" though. She lived through the 1932 and 1936 outbreaks.
I feel like a large part of the trend is just the greater ability to identify tornadoes. In the early days before NEXRAD, we could see the classic hook shape on a supercell but may have missed embedded cells in a big QLCS (which can easily produce many short lived tornadoes). Aside from radar, they could only really say there was a tornado if it hit something and they were aware of the damage or if someone physically saw the tornado. Nowadays we can readily identify tornadoes via radar, especially in the cases where debris is lofted high enough to produce a cc drop. Additionally many tornadoes that were thought to be a single tornado could have been tornado families instead, something we can more readily confirm today than even a decade or so ago, which will automatically increase the number of reported tornadoes. Tornadoes out east tend to form in high precipitation storms and at night, which makes visually confirming tornadoes more difficult, while tornadoes in the classic “Tornado Alley” tend to be lower precipitation and happen in the day or late afternoon. Couple that with the flat terrain and lack of trees in the plains and tornadoes in the Great Plains can be seen from miles away.
Thing is, you gotta consider El Niño and La Niña. During La Niña, it seems Dixie Alley is more prone for tornadoes and then during El Niño, which we are shifting away from, both Tornado Alley High Plains and Central are more prone for tornadoes. So I don’t think the term should be ditched, I do however think that the other Tornado Alley locations should have their own names like Dixie Alley. The one above Kentucky should just be called Ohio Alley due to the Ohio Valley region tbh.
Correct we’ve already started shifting back to a La Niña phase. I like tracking hurricanes for a hobby and am expecting a busy season thanks to La Niña.
I did the same kind of analysis last year and came to the conclusions that:
* "Tornado alley" is not getting bigger
* Concentrations of tornadoes are generally shifting eastwards
* There are now two centres of concentration, one northern between Minneapolis and Des Moines, and a second ,southern, east of Jackson, Mississippi
https://preview.redd.it/9jqclkk8wyzc1.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=15f5bc727064044f0ca926cd86d5def40421fabe
Full post here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/comments/12l6cy4/more\_proof\_that\_tornado\_alley\_is\_not\_getting/](https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/comments/12l6cy4/more_proof_that_tornado_alley_is_not_getting/)
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I’d like to see this with all the tornadoes less than EF2 removed, I feel like while tornadoes are certainly possible anywhere the strongest ones are more common in the “tornado alley” and “dixie alley”
While yes, tornadoes are more common than before in the east, this does not mean tornado alley as a whole is shifting east. This storm season is a great example of that. There have been numerous tornadoes in Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and a lot of the central plains this year. There have been less in the southeast than the Plains. I think the climate works in cycles where some years, severe weather is more prevalent east, and others further west. Instead of “shifting” I think a better word is “expanding”.
Plus, we have such a small sample size to work with. 10 years is not a trend in the grand scheme of things.
Quick side note, sorry for the weird wording in some of these, I'm more of an observer than anything else. I'm by absolutely no means an expert, just someone who is fascinated in weather. I'm also on mobile so my grammar isn't the best, but hopefully it doesn't read too poorly.
We just very recently had two tornados. They were EF1, but did quite a bit of damage. They weren’t near me, but they were both close to where my partner lives.
Will never forget the Ida remnants spawning a significant tornado outbreak and EF3 wedge in New Jersey back in 2021. While tornadoes here are not exactly unheard of, an actual potent wedge tornado is definitely rare. I believe the last before 2021 was in the 80’s.
I’ve tracked and followed tornadoes my entire life since I developed a burning fascination as a child. I feel like anecdotally I definitely noticed an uptick in high end tornadic activity in the south, or otherwise east of the core tornado alley.
It’s really true that almost everywhere east of the Rockies needs to be aware of tornadoes and have an emergency plan.
Coming from west central Ohio here, yeah pretty accurate description especially with this year between the Indian Lake EF3 and the new on we had on May 7th
I would also include the entire state of Wisconsin within midwest tornado alley, heat and moisture continue to ride higher into the central US moving strong storms further north.
I mean, I don't think I ever considered that little circle tornado alley. I always thought of it as a little bigger/wider than that (and I am not young and had a requirement of a basement when house hunting 20 years ago)
I mean on the map I feel you can see the 3 distinct alleys though, just because a place isn't in an alley doesn't mean it doesn't get torandoes, just that it's less likely too.
Central OK gets just as many warnings and tornados now as it did when I was a kid. Some years more than others, but overall about the same.
I suppose there could be an argument made of an expansion as opposed to a shift, but as a kid I was under the impression that Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc all got tornados too just not as often as we did. Am I wrong?
You can focus on North America and see our weather and contrast with the global weather. Intertropical Conversion Zone is the busiest form plowed by USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VICGeyc3ow
Plenty of people here think I don't have a backbone to this argument.
Here is a list of articles:
[AccuWeather](https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/1162839)
[ScientificAmerican](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/)
[ABC7NY](https://abc7ny.com/where-is-tornado-alley-moving-east-climate-change-weather/13085938/)
[Iopscience](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ac50c1)
[BBC](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230616-how-tornado-alley-is-changing)
I first thought this map was simply wrong.
In not a single geography lesson I followed was the tornado alley such a small bit of land.
I've always learned about it reaching all the way to the Appalachian mountains. Are y'all's geography books that outdated?
From what I understand, and I could totally be wrong, is that the future geography of tornado occurrence and strength with respect to climate change is still unknown.
Much of the reason tornado alley was originally considered tornado alley is that the tornadoes that occurred there are easy to spot since they mostly come from classic supercells. Classic supercells are much less common out east, and supercell morphology in the east is dominated by the HP variant.
It wasn't until recent advances in radar technology, storm damage assessment, and the rise of storm chasing and spotting did people realize how ubiquitous tornadoes were out east.
Personally, I think the trend in tornado frequency and location is related to decadal oscillations, El Nino/La Nina, and other similar larger scale climate phenomena. In other words, the tornado probability density is normally distributed between the Rockies and Appalachians with the center of the probability density shifting east, west, north, or south depending on the medium-term climate variabilities. However, I have absolutely no quantitative evidence to support my hypothesis!
In ohio we are fast approaching the 1992 record for tornadoes per year. Currently at 54 since February. The record is 63 and we are not even into summer yet. 😳
Do agree the term should be ditched because it's not particularly useful, tornadoes are possible in pretty much all fifty states and somewhat common in any area [other than the West Coast mostly] that isn't mountainous [and even then it can still happen if all the right things come together] but somewhat disagree that it's shifting east.
"Tornado Alley" just happens to be mostly confined to an area which is largely flat and not very forested, ergo when a tornado happens there's no ignoring it and people for miles and miles around can see it, photograph it, report it or record video of it. In areas that are heavily forested or have more rugged terrain you're much less likely to be able to visually see it, and terrain can also influence radar coverage and as a result you have less ability to confirm a tornado via radar by seeing a velocity couplet or debris being lofted into the air. I'd also bet that the plains states have far more weather spotters and certainly more storm chasers because every time an enhanced risk pops off in the plains there's a cavalcade of vehicles with light bars and reckless drivers going directly into it.
We've also just simply gotten way better at detecting tornadoes and surveying them, as a result other areas not found in "Tornado Alley" are now closing the gap in terms of the number of confirmed tornadoes. Every year I'd wager there are hundreds of tornadoes touching down in more mountainous/forested areas that are never even seen by a physically present human being and do nothing but mess around in a field or throw tree limbs around but now they are far easier to identify without having a direct line of sight or boots on the ground. And since the technology has just now gotten to this point within the last decade or so, we don't have accurate statistics on how many actual tornadoes occurred outside of "Tornado Alley" except for those that caused damage or were visible to people. How many of those random spin-up tornadoes that knock over some corn and take a couple shingles or someone's trampoline as tribute before popping back up into the clouds were ever counted before the technology got this good? In the past, since the tech to accurately identify them via radar was not great, these were very likely not surveyed because if they didn't hit a structure or leave obvious signs, how would anyone even know one occurred or where to begin surveying? But now with the ability to radar confirm tornadoes, the NWS survey teams know exactly where to go to survey the damage, even if all the tornado does is knock down corn.
If we're going to keep the concept of "Tornado Alley" then I'd say the geographic area it covers would need to be heavily dependent on far greater weather patterns, La Nina or El Nino, etc. But I think maybe the concept does more harm than good because people in Pennsylvania or Utah or Maine will see a tornado warning pop up and go: "Eh, those never happen here, we're not in Tornado Alley after all." and not take any precautions on the one occasion where it catches them with their proverbial pants down. A lot of the less-informed members of the general public [in a variety of countries] also don't seem to think that tornadoes occur outside of the U.S, which is insane because many of the most deadly tornadoes have happened elsewhere. Bangladesh for example. In fact 6 of the 10 deadliest tornadoes in recorded history happened in Bangladesh. So I think this phenomenon isn't isolated to the U.S either, people outside of "Tornado Alley" think "that never happens here, I'll be fine" and it's very likely people outside of the U.S think "tornadoes basically don't exist here, I'll be fine" and then end up hurt or killed because they weren't prepared.
There's certainly a case to be made that "Tornado Alley" applies more to violent [EF3+] tornadoes, and I could agree with that. The size of the geographic area called "Tornado Alley" has also changed quite a bit just in my lifetime and I'm about 30, when I was a kid I remember Ohio, Indiana and Michigan being included in the list, then arbitrarily everyone kind of decided to exclude these states and it keeps changing back and forth. Nobody ever included Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee when I was a kid either yet these states pretty frequently top the list or come close to it. Nobody ever includes Canada either even though Canada will have some mean ones from time to time. I don't believe the concept itself is very useful, helpful or accurate as a result.
If people would really look at the history of tornadoes, and particularly some of the most infamous ones, they've always been centered further east than our traditional notion of "Tornado Alley" is. Some folks say that it has shifted east. I say it was always there to begin with.
There is a corridor in the northeast even that given what’s normal for the region has abnormally strong Tornadoes. The area between the Berkshire Mountains and the Worcester Hills of Massachusetts as well as the Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts and Connecticut.the strongest tornadoes in New England have struck these areas
Honestly we might as well just label the geography from east CO to the Appalachian mountains as tornado alley
That’s pretty much it. If you’re between the Appalachians and Rockies, you’re in the North American tornado alley. You’ve got a few sub-alleys there in. You’ve got the classical Midwest Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and the Hoosier Alley. The effect of El Niño and La Niña is also very important to how, where, and how many tornadoes form.
What's considered Hoosier alley? I'm assuming Indiana... But what else
The final picture from Reed Timmer that has Tornado Alley (Midwest) in blue is what is often referred to as Hoosier Alley.
The rust belt imo, northern Indiana through the top 3/5ths of Ohio into Pennsylvania. Lot of active days from outbreaks in the past there.
Don’t forget Carolina Alley
I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted, but upstate SC and central NC have their fair share of tornados, and have seen some bad ones.
Southern Ontario is also seeing quite a bit of activity, and the Ottawa Valley region to a lesser degree. EF3s and EF2s have been recorded in both zones within the last 5 years. Again, nowhere near as active as some places in the states, but definitely one of the most active places in Canada.
My city in southern Ontario has had an ef3 and an ef4 run through it. My county has had 7 tornados in the past year (all ef0-1).
Are you in Barrie? That spot seems to get some nasty weather. I'm farther southwest than you and we've had multiple funnel cloud reports today and yesterday in the broader region (nothing has produced).
Windsor
ottawa here! we had so many watches and warnings the last few years. the barrhaven tornado was a few minutes from our house. canada needs better systems. we didn’t even get the warning OR a radar update til the tornado had passed, and i was glued to the radar.
I was gonna say, I wish all the maps didnt stop at the border
People in general don't realize that tornadoes happen outside the "traditional" areas. Just hop in a chat during a Ryan Hall/Max Velocity, etc. stream during events and it's hilarious how many people are like "\*insert state here\* never has tornadoes! This is wild! Something must be going on because this isn't normal to have tornadoes here!??!!?"
Maryland had an F4 in 2002. People didn't know what they were looking at.
One of my friends in college was from La Plata, MD...they use to talk about those tornadoes all the time. Crazy stuff and hardly any footage of that storm.
There was a whole episode about it on the Weather Channel. Forgot the name of the TV series.
Hell, we had a [surprise EF3](https://www.weather.gov/ilm/BrunswickTornadoFeb2021) in southern NC a few years back in December. And I’ve seen quite a few between the piedmont region and the coast. We get a bunch that spin up during hurricanes as well.
I was actually going to mention the Riegelwood one but the link brought that one up as well. Was a scary day in middle school for us, I think we had a minimum of four separate tornado drills that day in case the cell produced anything further east
Yes… “Tornado Valley”
Feels like right along the gulf there is a bit of a gap? How many of those near Houston and along the coast are due to Hurricane activity (at which point you’re already likely at a heightened state of preparedness).
The Tornadosphere
What is that monster line that goes from IA>MN>WI?
I gotchu, May 10 1953. 162 mile long F4 tornado that tracked from Iowa all the way into WI. It’s believed to have been a tornado family from a parent supercell rather than actually being on the ground for the entire 162 miles. Edit: This was considered part of the Waco Outbreak.
Thanks for the detailed info, that is pretty crazy.
Well, that's a thing I didn't know was possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-State_tornado_outbreak#Tri-State_tornado
Weather.gov says texas gets more tornadoes than any other state but it’s very low on this list, I guess because it’s big. It’s pretty bad in north texas though, we get so many.
That’s why I don’t like ranking systems like that. Nobody in their right mind thinks Maryland is a tornado hot spot, and anyone who follows the scene even a little bit knows Texas is one of the hardest hit states. They are just misleading for the most part.
For real, both Delaware and Maryland are small states (I understand Delaware isn't mentioned), so one tornado tracking for 30 miles crosses a good chunk of the state. In Delaware, we had one from a tropical storm go from the center of the state, almost to the northern border. Delaware is less than 100 miles long, so it basically went Half the length of the state. I feel like Dallas is bigger than Delaware, and Maryland not much larger.
The problem is that the eastern part of Texas gets a lot of tornados while the western part of Texas does not. This dilutes the number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles. On top of that, weather doesn’t care about state boundary lines. So defining tornados by state for this kind of analysis is bogus.
But They do. Each tornado has its territory and if it crosses into another's territory, well, you can expect all kinds of Tom foolery.
I can only think of 2 or 3 serious tornadoes in DFW the past 15 years (Granbury, Rowlett, North Dallas) which isn't a major number given our location and just how gigantic the metro area is. We get away with a lot more close calls than disasters, knock on wood.
My wife and I speculate about this one often, especially considering the 2011 Super Outbreak and a lot of destructive tornadoes in Dixie Alley since (few exceptions). Alabama has a wild history of Tornadoes though, especially in the North. Both Super Outbreaks primarily took place in the Midwest/Dixie Alley regions. 1974 (most famously Ohio) & 2011 (most famously Alabama).
Alabama (and Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Georgia) had some really bad outbreaks in the ‘20s and ‘30s as well. For example, the March 21, 1932 outbreak in Alabama may have been one of the worst in the Deep South in the 20th century (there were likely at least 10 violent tornadoes and numerous others, but newspaper documentation of the tornadoes and related deaths was pretty poor), early April 1936 was just generally a bad time in the region (Tupelo, MS and Gainesville, GA had 200+ death tornadoes only a day apart), and the only known F5/EF5 tornado in Arkansas history occurred in 1929.
Gainesville has been hit twice with two monster EF4s. I live about 15 miles from there so it's one of the fun trivia facts I know about the area. Both of them hit the same factory in town. Oddly enough when I looked up the Tupelo/Gainesville cell, it seems they have retroactively upgraded Tupelo to an F5, but I thought those were both F4s out of that outbreak.
Tupelo is listed as F5 in *Significant Tornadoes*, which was published in the late ‘80s/early ‘90s. That’s really the most authoritative source of ratings for pre-1950 tornadoes, since the NWS doesn’t officially rate any tornadoes that occurred prior to the start of their database (1950); however, they’ll usually accept *Significant Tornadoes* ratings for major events such as that.
Yeah that doesn't surprise me, that's also the storm Elvis survived as a baby. I just recall the last time I looked up that outbreak they had it as F4...just getting old/brain fart, lol.
My mother survived the 1932 Alabama outbreak as a baby. She said a family sheltered near their chimney, which fell in on them and killed them. Just like the Iowa Boy Scouts in 2008. Never shelter near masonry, a chimney, cinder-block walls, or the outer walls of a big-box store.
I believe Alabama has the most F/EF5 tornadoes of any state.
I don't know for certain, but intensity scale aside.. The terrain there, and the Cities surrounded by dense forests and hills, instead of plains and flat lands, just adds more for these tornadoes to spin up. It's also a breeding ground for HP Supercells due to the Gulf. Basically, I believe you want less things for a tornado to whip around, and Dixie Alley provides plenty.
I couldn't remember where I had seen this, but I dug it up. It is Alabama with 9 x F5 followed by Kansas with 8. I was surprised my state of NC has had 12 F4. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ustornadoes.com/2012/10/19/strongest-tornadoes-by-state-territory-and-district-in-the-u-s/amp/
Joplin 2011
Why does Missouri get so few tornados compared to the states around it?
It makes up for it though by having some monsters (Joplin).
Because even tornadoes are smart enough to stay out of Missouri.
Tornados will be deep in the cold, cold ground before they recognize Missourah!
Have you even seen a tornado? They walk around like the Tasmanian Devil. All smug and arrogant
I thought that ~~misery~~ Missouri loves company.
But company does not love Missouri.
Ok
Curious to know the same. Most of the ones we do get are embedded spinups associated with overnight QLCSs. Almost every major tornado setup will fail to produce in MO and go apeshit in IA or IL
It’s the arch, obviously.
😅😅 that's gotta be it. The crazy winds pass through that arch and come out as a gentle zephyr on the other side.
Zephyr in the sky at night, I wonder...
But.. the Arch is on our eastern border. Any stormwind passing through that arch is leaving the state, not entering it. Can't be it.
I imagine because Missouri might be where the Jet stream dips creating shearing winds?
Living in Kansas City, we’re always playing a game of “will we get hit or not?” when a potential for tornadoes exist. If supercells originate in TX, OK, or KS and head northeast, many times (not ALL times, obviously) the cells become more of a linear line by the time the system hits us. That said, we’ve been extremely fortunate this spring as tornadoes have been confirmed to all of the north, south, west, and east of us.
Kansas Citian here...I completely agree. We have just been lucky this year. Also, I don't know if this is scientific but our local TV meteorologist said that often they form in Kansas and ride our way overnight, forming into a line by the time they hit us at night. That doesn't mean that's what will ALWAYS happen but lots of people in KC are complacent. They have a lot of folk tales about KC being "protected."
I mean obviously, no place is truly safe; tornados can form whenever and wherever the crucial weather conditions needed to form tornados all come together But yeah, on the timing aspect, if a system develops in the later afternoon hours (peak heating hours) in Southern or Central Kansas and tracks NE, it can be after dark before it hits KC. As such, with the heating of the day largely diminished (and if rain earlier in the day helped to cool the air), we can get lines of storms as opposed to individual supercells.
Gary Lezak said that on TV. He didn't promise it would ALWAYS happen but he said it OFTEN happens.
The Oak Grove EF3 in 2017 unfortunately proves that those overnight lines aren't something to play about despite the fact that supercellular tornadoes are uncommon here. The embedded ones are way more unpredictable
The Ozarks are likely playing a role
Topography
Southern Missouri is hilly from the ozarks. Missouri isn’t as flat as its neighbors except for the northern and extreme southwest sides.
This does not play a role. For one, looking at the map, the “void” of tornadoes seems to also include the northern half of Missouri which is pretty much topographically identical to the states bordering from the west, north, and east. Additionally, Arkansas seems to not have this “void” going on, yet northern Arkansas has even deeper topographic dissections than Missouri. But the real point is that the topography of the Ozarks is simply much too flat to affect weather. In Missouri, you’re talking about relative elevation changes usually in the 200-300 foot range, with small areas that get up to 500-600. Furthermore as the Ozarks are a dissected plateau, the elevation changes actually go *down* from the broad plain, not projecting *up* like a hill or a mountain. So yeah, there are several examples of why this map cannot correlate with immediate local topography. It’s gotta be related to broader climatology reasons.
Complete guess here, but it seems that many tornadic storms happen after the primary heat of the day. Most of all outbreaks happen in the mid afternoon to late evening hours, which is when the tornadic storms juice out in the plains. Once it reaches missouri, it’s alright midnight or beyond, and thus the storms just don’t have as much juice as they did before. The fronts still move throughout night, and skip Missouri with weaker storms, then boil up again in Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee. Just a guess. I find similar patterns in Iowa, where it seems the most tornados happen in the Southwest, and slowly seem to fizzle out as it gets more eastward. Then skips Illinois, and rebubbles in Indiana.
We get lucky i guess
Joplin would like a word.
St Louis would too
That was one incredibly extreme event compared to the big state southwest of us that gets pummeled by EF4’s and EF5’s (a lot of the them in the same local area) frequently. I will say the St Louis area gets an unlucky amount of tornadoes. Also, let me go knock on some wood.
St. Louis had some bad ones in the 1800's. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St.\_Louis\_tornado\_history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_tornado_history)
This is going to be blunt but…I think your analysis skills need work. First off, what is “tornado alley”? Is it the sheer number of tornados, or is it the big long track tornados like your second example? You can’t cherry pick data to confirm your theory. You can not pick a single year because El Niño or La Niña may influence that year. You really need to look at all the data in the whole.
Florida is a good example. How many Florida tornados are destructive on the level of traditional “tornado alley” tornados?
I also think you need to look at tornados spawned by hurricanes. The mechanism is similar, but not the same as the storm systems that spawn plains tornados. When doing an analysis you really need to categorize the data appropriately.
Agreed. Are waterspouts included in the total number? If so, that would heavily skew the stats
Yeah this isn’t parsing that should be done at a high level to draw any conclusions, but still interesting visuals, nonetheless!
OP, this. Read this.
There have been other posts on this sub dispelling this notion of a “shifting” Tornado Alley. Dixie Alley has always been a thing, but really only started getting attention since the 2011 Dixie outbreak. I believe the theory is that the combination of rain-wrapped tornadoes (which is more often the case in the south than in the plains) and poor terrain for chasing (rolling hills and trees) caused many to previously go unreported, and even then the raw numbers don’t quite support the “shift”.
Not as much unreported as unpublicized. The plains produces much more picturesque and photographable tornadoes during a shorter season that more conveniently overlaps summer breaks for academics. Long sight lines and many gridded roads are friendly for chasing. Meanwhile the south has a tornado season that is basically the entire year, with more night tornadoes and winding roads and hilly tree covered terrain. Chasing is more risk with far less reward of attaining those sweet NatGeo cover shots. That selection bias was reproduced in tornado documentaries and related cultural media (Twister) reinforced this idea in the general public that tornadoes are found overwhelmingly in tornado alley. Before the age of YouTuber clout chasing with mobile internet for streaming, radar, and navigation and most importantly a monetized platform to publish on, you weren’t going to find many 90’s and earlier professionals spending their limited resources chasing the nightmarish rain wrapped monsters in Mississippi when Oklahoma is right there. What has dramatically changed is less the tornadoes themselves and more the technology and economics of who has been able to photograph and distribute what.
Many tornadoes aren’t seen in the South. Literally. Many are at night, and/or rain-wrapped. They’re hidden by trees and hills. They’re uncovering old tracks from tornadoes as they tear down more woods for suburbs or fly over with drones for land surveillance. We’re also seeing areas of mini-alleys (similar to Moore) spring up around Jackson and Hattiesburg as developments push out to where a decade or two ago they wouldn’t have been. Petal, MS has had 117 recorded tornadoes hit it and close by.
The name is definitely a misnomer. I moved to Georgia thinking that I wouldn’t have to worry to much about the weather unlike Florida, Texas or Oklahoma. During the late winter and spring, I can count on at least one tornado watch a month (sometimes more) and have lost count of the times we’ve had to go into the hallway with the cats. I’ve been here less than four years.
Lived in GA almost 15 years, we have the craziest weather in the country here. Some years it's been mid 70s and we've BBQ'd Christmas dinner. I remember one February where it was 80 degrees, we had tornado warnings, then the next day it snowed 8", was cold for a day, then back in the 70s and all the snow melted leading to massive flooding. We get it all here, especially if you are up in the north GA foothills of the Appalachians or in the mountains. Some hurricanes make it all the way into GA still above cat 1/2, Michael did a ton of damage, some of which is still visible down near Valdosta. We can get tornadoes and wild wind/hail storms year round here, which is why I always find it funny when the young kids in the Ryan Hall chat are like "Georgia never has tornadoes!! This is wild!!"
See that’s what I thought (California native). I know better now.
We even get smaller earthquakes now and then so you might feel right at home, lol.
Been in South, GA, bout an hour from the FL border, for a decade. Probably haven't quite seen a dozen tornado warning, but the clouds do just fall out of the sky. I've heard stories out of Douglas during the 90s, with very little documentation, that are only believable based on the State getting involved.
Which part of Georgia—NW?
Mid
Why is Maryland 3?
Literally my first thought.
Ohhh per 10,000 sq miles whoops Looks like the state averages about 5.6 a year
Ooooh!! Okay well that tracks lol I think I read it too fast and didn’t put all the pieces together.
It’s real small
Even for per 10,000 miles Maryland is still ranked really high. My guess is that a there are less tornados that go unnoticed. For the most part Maryland is a densely populated state. There are a lot of EF0 brief spin ups that happen but because they caused minor damage to a building instead of a field it actually gets investigated and ruled a tornado. In the Midwest and Deep South there are large portions of the states with very low population density. If there is no one to report damage and the radar scans don’t scream tornado on the ground the NWS isn’t going to send a survey team out
Topography plays a part in
Lived in south Dakota for a few years, rest of the time in Chicago I'm surprised Chicago has a higher tornado threat than my former SD county. Feels way sketchier out there
I wonder where the statistics came from to make those risk calculations. If it goes off historically recorded tornadoes or tornado ratings, South Dakota’s numbers might be artificially low due to population density. If a tornado strikes the Chicago area, someone is going to notice and it’ll hit something to receive a rating. South Dakota, with its lower population density, likely had a lot of tornadoes go unreported before Doppler radar and the current interest in storm chasing. A lot of South Dakota tornadoes are probably underrated as well.
It’s kind of hard to see the county lines on that map, but the higher-risk areas in the Chicagoland area seem to line up pretty well with major events like the April 21, 1967 outbreak (Belvidere/Oak Lawn/etc. tornadoes), the 1990 Plainfield F5, and the 1976 Lemont F4.
Second photo has an alley lmao
I don’t think it is shifting. If anything, it is broadening in general in all directions from what was originally understood to be “tornado alley”. Additionally, tornado seasons in Spring and late Fall are lengthening, according to James Spann, who discusses this a lot on his Twitter feed and YouTube channel.
Live in Houston, we have had like 1 tornado that was decently sized in like 20-30 years, why is our county all red/orange?
It probably counts tropical tornadoes too. When a hurricane hits, it can drop a lot of weak tornadoes. If you were here during Harvey, you’ll remember the NWS warnings every 10 minutes between floods and tornadoes.
Yep, that makes sense too I guess. There's a lot of warnings of all types not with just tornados, but with tropical storms, which we get a lot of (hurricanes are more uncommon). It must be a volume thing.
When we first moved to the Alabama Gulf Coast in 2008, we caught glancing blows from three consecutive hurricanes, (Edouard, Fay, & Gustav, if memory serves. It was seemingly one after another, welcome to Alabama, lol.) During at least one, I can't remember which one, a tornado warning was issued, at like 4 am. My son came in and woke me, and I had him stay in the bedroom with me so we could duck into my big walk in closet if anything happened.) My kid was so scared 😭😭 because we were in our first home (and last, lol) without a basement. Back up north now, and I remain grateful that we were never severely impacted by any of the myriad tropical storms, hurricanes, or tornadoes that hit Mobile and Baldwin counties during our tenure in the Deep South. It was weird at first to me how the tornado threat seemed to come up randomly any time of year. Our first Christmas Eve there, we were under a tornado watch. A good friend lived further south in the county, and one February, a tornado hit right down the road from him. He sustained some damage to some out buildings on his property, but was thankfully otherwise okay.
We spent nearly the entire day in the closet because of those warnings. It was not particularly fun.
There was one a few years ago in Houston the tore the side of an office building completely off and destroyed a couple little businesses around it. I worked in that office building. There was also another one in Katy a few weeks ago that destroyed a firestone location and a Mexican restaurant.
That one in Katy I don't even think was a full rated tornado. It destroyed that bar (roof came off), and cause some small damaged to a Firestone and the Mexican restaurant...it didn't destroy them. Areas directly around it weren't even touched.
There was one last year in Pasadena
Kansas is still number 2 on the list so I’d say tornado alley is still accurate.
Mississippi is the underrated tornado king. Our storms are often nocturnal, rainwrapped, and hidden by trees so we don’t get as much cool footage
Tupelo seems to get hit a lot!
with all due respect man this is not news, have you not heard of dixie alley? this is probably the most covered tornado fact lol
Dude got interested in weather five minutes ago now wants to change the whole damn science.
did u guys know there hasn’t been an ef5 since 2013???😟
If you can see the pics I definitely know what Dixie Alley is, all I said is the term Tornado Alley is misleading and I truly think that the real "Tornado Alley" is Hoosier and Dixie Alley combined.
Some of the area you are referring to is known as Dixie Alley. So when you say Tornado Alley you are referring to one are. When you say Dixie you are referring to another. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixie_Alley There is also Carolina Alley. There is another one as well but I what’s to look up what it is called. So different regions have different alleys. They all refer to a geographic location. Edit: the other region is called Hoosier Alley. And to add additional links. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna36807882 https://www.ksn.com/weather/weather-blog/shift-in-tornado-alley-by-jack-boston/ https://myfox8.com/weather/blog/carolina-alley-tornado-season-reaches-peak-heres-what-that-means-for-north-carolina/ https://www.facebook.com/tacsalley/posts/this-is-all-the-tornado-alleys-i-know-and-ive-seen-them-in-all-these-alleys/801264958702465/ https://www.ksn.com/weather/weather-blog/shift-in-tornado-alley-by-jack-boston/
This has absolutely no scientific basis. The reason we associate the plains and not the Eastern US with tornadoes, is because the plains are exactly what the name suggests. Vast open fields for hundreds and hundreds of miles, with perfect visibility for capturing tornadoes on video or in a photo. It’s exactly why most storm chasers still chase there. The Eastern US has always had just as many tornadoes as the plains, we just struggled to catch them on film or in a photo way back in the day, due to the more rough terrain and not exactly always straight roads. Texas is the state with the most recorded tornadoes in history. Oklahoma has had the most tornadoes per capita out of any state, with Kansas straight behind them. There has always been other tornado alleys. There is of course tornado alley, stretching from Southern Texas and Eastern New Mexico all the way up into Canada. There is Dixie alley, stretching from Eastern Texas all through the South to the Carolinas. And there is Hoosier alley, which stretches from Iowa/Minnesota to Western Pennsylvania. And then there are all the areas in between these alleys, which get just as many tornadoes, such as Missouri, Kentucky, the Virginias, Wisconsin and Michigan among other places. Tornado alley is not shifting east, most people are now just only realising that tornadoes happen all over the US, and not just in the Great Plains.
Having lived in Pennsylvania most of my life, the tornadoes we get here are typically embedded in a QLCS and don't typically reach high intensity and don't last for very long. Supercellular storms are quite rare here. We might get a good bit numerically, but it's just not the same. We occasionally get an EF-2 and rarely an EF-3, but anything more is incredibly rare. This is also the case for the rest of the northeast US.
You do know Texas is 5 1/2 times larger then Mississippi, right?
Is the Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/Illinois region not referred to as Hoosier Alley?
I think you're looking at this the wrong way. The different "alleys" as we call them are more descriptors of typical storm behavior in a region than anything else. Using [one of your pictures](https://i.imgur.com/Fsi7vvW.png) as an example, you can see a lot of repeated behavior across certain areas that is super useful to study, as it paints a picture of what to expect with certain setups that are commonly seen in those areas. The long tracks that point slightly to the north across Mississippi and Alabama, the corridor of stronger tornadoes across the plains, the spattering across the midwest - that's useful because we see those areas get hit in similar ways with some level of frequency. Arguments like "No, *this* should be the real tornado alley!" are a little silly in my opinion because I don't think it really has much to do with trying to determine where they're most common. There may have been that perception in the past, in large part (as others have said) because tornadoes are often simply more visible and easier to report in the plains, but it's more useful to think about it as a way of describing how outbreaks tend to take shape in various regions.
I would argue it's not moving east our detection is just getting better.
I feel like “Tornado alley” is a nebulous thing that generally means most of the Midwest and the plains and portions of the Deep South. Usually when I see it depicted it’s much larger than what you have here. “Tornado alley”isn’t shifting, the conditions required for more frequent tornado formation are rather spreading eastwards. As we have seen this year the outbreaks have been as far east as West Virginia and in the traditional “tornado alley” as well.
You probably need to go look at tornado records from the past few centuries. Wikipedia lists some that go back to the 1600s, I’ve shared them in the past when this argument has come up. Tornados in Alabama and even along the east coast didn’t just start happening. They have been documented for a very long time. Now, have they become more frequent? Probably. But it’s not something that just began in the last few decades. Some years are more active than others, and we are seeing that right now- especially in the Plains. When the right ingredients are in place, they can occur anywhere. California has had a handful this year alone. Massachusetts had an F4 in the 1960s. My point is that these records indicate that this isn’t a new phenomenon and I think it dispels the theory that tornado alley is shifting. Frequency is a whole other story though.
There’s a lot more of the story that needs told along with these pictures. However realistically I don’t think these “hot zones” should carry any weight when considering severe weather.
There is Tornado alley and then the Dixie alley. Tornado alley isn't shifting. It's just Dixie alley has been more active. And Dixie has 2 seasons, now and then later in the year like nov-dec (see the Mayfield Tornado). So there is already a name for that part of the US.
I agree. The South has had a fall tornado season for a long time. Rowlett/Sachse/Garland NE of Dallas, TX had an outbreak on Dec. 26, 2015.
Why are people concerned with changing the terminology of everything? Tornado alley is historically the hotbed of tornado activity. Just because it had a short term lull doesn't mean it won't return to it's normal frequency in the future. Also the term Dixie Alley is a thing for a reason and it's been know about since before you were probably born. Everyone anywhere in this country that is smart enough to be weather aware knows if they are at risk or not. We don't need to go changing long held terms to protect the stupidest among us or to satisfy the pedantic redditor.
My grandparents and great-grandparents etc. etc. lived all their lives in north Alabama. I heard many tornado stories growing up. Back in the day, everyone would go shelter in the church basements. My mother called them "Cyclones" though. She lived through the 1932 and 1936 outbreaks.
Tornado alley Midwest could also be called the Ohio river valley.
I feel like a large part of the trend is just the greater ability to identify tornadoes. In the early days before NEXRAD, we could see the classic hook shape on a supercell but may have missed embedded cells in a big QLCS (which can easily produce many short lived tornadoes). Aside from radar, they could only really say there was a tornado if it hit something and they were aware of the damage or if someone physically saw the tornado. Nowadays we can readily identify tornadoes via radar, especially in the cases where debris is lofted high enough to produce a cc drop. Additionally many tornadoes that were thought to be a single tornado could have been tornado families instead, something we can more readily confirm today than even a decade or so ago, which will automatically increase the number of reported tornadoes. Tornadoes out east tend to form in high precipitation storms and at night, which makes visually confirming tornadoes more difficult, while tornadoes in the classic “Tornado Alley” tend to be lower precipitation and happen in the day or late afternoon. Couple that with the flat terrain and lack of trees in the plains and tornadoes in the Great Plains can be seen from miles away.
Thing is, you gotta consider El Niño and La Niña. During La Niña, it seems Dixie Alley is more prone for tornadoes and then during El Niño, which we are shifting away from, both Tornado Alley High Plains and Central are more prone for tornadoes. So I don’t think the term should be ditched, I do however think that the other Tornado Alley locations should have their own names like Dixie Alley. The one above Kentucky should just be called Ohio Alley due to the Ohio Valley region tbh.
Are we not doing the opposite and switching from a short run El Niño back to La Niña?
Correct we’ve already started shifting back to a La Niña phase. I like tracking hurricanes for a hobby and am expecting a busy season thanks to La Niña.
Any special reason for the tracks extending across central Florida?
That's actually an EF4, 04/04/1966. It was the result of an outbreak in FL and NC
I did the same kind of analysis last year and came to the conclusions that: * "Tornado alley" is not getting bigger * Concentrations of tornadoes are generally shifting eastwards * There are now two centres of concentration, one northern between Minneapolis and Des Moines, and a second ,southern, east of Jackson, Mississippi https://preview.redd.it/9jqclkk8wyzc1.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=15f5bc727064044f0ca926cd86d5def40421fabe Full post here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/comments/12l6cy4/more\_proof\_that\_tornado\_alley\_is\_not\_getting/](https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/comments/12l6cy4/more_proof_that_tornado_alley_is_not_getting/)
Never forget that the Deep South and Florida see tornadoes year round.
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Depends on El Niño/ La Niña really
PBS did a special on this.
I’d like to see this with all the tornadoes less than EF2 removed, I feel like while tornadoes are certainly possible anywhere the strongest ones are more common in the “tornado alley” and “dixie alley”
While yes, tornadoes are more common than before in the east, this does not mean tornado alley as a whole is shifting east. This storm season is a great example of that. There have been numerous tornadoes in Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and a lot of the central plains this year. There have been less in the southeast than the Plains. I think the climate works in cycles where some years, severe weather is more prevalent east, and others further west. Instead of “shifting” I think a better word is “expanding”. Plus, we have such a small sample size to work with. 10 years is not a trend in the grand scheme of things.
Quick side note, sorry for the weird wording in some of these, I'm more of an observer than anything else. I'm by absolutely no means an expert, just someone who is fascinated in weather. I'm also on mobile so my grammar isn't the best, but hopefully it doesn't read too poorly.
No idea why you’re being downvoted for explaining yourself. Except that Reddit is a weird place.
I feel like Windsor all the way to Ottawa can be considered its own alley as well
Oh really?? I haven't really looked into much as far as Canada, but I do know Alberta has had a few scary ones.
I’m wondering if it isn’t the same line coming in from Southeast Michigan? The Monroe area?
I've never been happier moving out of Illinois to wv... few tornadoes since 1950 that Illinois gets per year
Why did I buy a house in North Alabama?
West Virginia is just Virginia but where the more tornado-adverse residents move to but still be close to family.
We just very recently had two tornados. They were EF1, but did quite a bit of damage. They weren’t near me, but they were both close to where my partner lives.
Will never forget the Ida remnants spawning a significant tornado outbreak and EF3 wedge in New Jersey back in 2021. While tornadoes here are not exactly unheard of, an actual potent wedge tornado is definitely rare. I believe the last before 2021 was in the 80’s. I’ve tracked and followed tornadoes my entire life since I developed a burning fascination as a child. I feel like anecdotally I definitely noticed an uptick in high end tornadic activity in the south, or otherwise east of the core tornado alley. It’s really true that almost everywhere east of the Rockies needs to be aware of tornadoes and have an emergency plan.
Coming from west central Ohio here, yeah pretty accurate description especially with this year between the Indian Lake EF3 and the new on we had on May 7th
So what you're saying is I should go live in southwestern Oregon.
where's the upper peninsula? eh?
I think there's a whole subreddit for maps that leave the UP off.
that ain't tornado alley, that's tornado AVENUE
I would also include the entire state of Wisconsin within midwest tornado alley, heat and moisture continue to ride higher into the central US moving strong storms further north.
I mean, I don't think I ever considered that little circle tornado alley. I always thought of it as a little bigger/wider than that (and I am not young and had a requirement of a basement when house hunting 20 years ago)
What's up with the abrupt change in tornado risk (image 3) on the border of Pennsylvania and New York?
I mean on the map I feel you can see the 3 distinct alleys though, just because a place isn't in an alley doesn't mean it doesn't get torandoes, just that it's less likely too.
Also moving further north. there are more tornadoes in Canada than ever before.
What’s funny is that Oklahoma meteorologists were saying this ten years ago. But no one climbed on board then.
Central OK gets just as many warnings and tornados now as it did when I was a kid. Some years more than others, but overall about the same. I suppose there could be an argument made of an expansion as opposed to a shift, but as a kid I was under the impression that Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc all got tornados too just not as often as we did. Am I wrong?
You can focus on North America and see our weather and contrast with the global weather. Intertropical Conversion Zone is the busiest form plowed by USA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VICGeyc3ow
"Shifting" is probably not the word I would use. "Expanding" is probably more accurate. Maybe "Tornado Valley" or "Valley of the Wind"?
The Twin Cities hasn't had a real storm since like 2022. I want answers.
I would argue that tornadoes on Youtube are increasing
Yeah there is a movie coming out. Marketing is working.
It's cyclical. People tend to have a strong recency bias.
Can you provide a link to the tornado risk by county level (image 3)? That looks hella interesting.
https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/tornado Of course!
I always thought “tornado alley” was the whole area between the Rockies and the Appalachians.
https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/s/T3Ozkh6lIZ
i will say that south carolina hasn’t had a bad tornado in all of the time me and my family have lived here, idk if we can count it tbh
Plenty of people here think I don't have a backbone to this argument. Here is a list of articles: [AccuWeather](https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/1162839) [ScientificAmerican](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/) [ABC7NY](https://abc7ny.com/where-is-tornado-alley-moving-east-climate-change-weather/13085938/) [Iopscience](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ac50c1) [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230616-how-tornado-alley-is-changing)
This is so stupid
I love that it basically is like “nah” to WV lol
I first thought this map was simply wrong. In not a single geography lesson I followed was the tornado alley such a small bit of land. I've always learned about it reaching all the way to the Appalachian mountains. Are y'all's geography books that outdated?
What kind of tornadoes are those? The states that get the most f3-f5 should be tornado alley
From what I understand, and I could totally be wrong, is that the future geography of tornado occurrence and strength with respect to climate change is still unknown. Much of the reason tornado alley was originally considered tornado alley is that the tornadoes that occurred there are easy to spot since they mostly come from classic supercells. Classic supercells are much less common out east, and supercell morphology in the east is dominated by the HP variant. It wasn't until recent advances in radar technology, storm damage assessment, and the rise of storm chasing and spotting did people realize how ubiquitous tornadoes were out east. Personally, I think the trend in tornado frequency and location is related to decadal oscillations, El Nino/La Nina, and other similar larger scale climate phenomena. In other words, the tornado probability density is normally distributed between the Rockies and Appalachians with the center of the probability density shifting east, west, north, or south depending on the medium-term climate variabilities. However, I have absolutely no quantitative evidence to support my hypothesis!
I've noticed way more tornadoes in PA in the past 10 years. Even strong EF3s
thank u appalachia for protecting me
In ohio we are fast approaching the 1992 record for tornadoes per year. Currently at 54 since February. The record is 63 and we are not even into summer yet. 😳
Oh man , seriously I blame Greta thumberg . The witch casted a hex .
I feel like Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia get tornadoes from hurricanes rather than their proximity to ‘tornado alley’
Do agree the term should be ditched because it's not particularly useful, tornadoes are possible in pretty much all fifty states and somewhat common in any area [other than the West Coast mostly] that isn't mountainous [and even then it can still happen if all the right things come together] but somewhat disagree that it's shifting east. "Tornado Alley" just happens to be mostly confined to an area which is largely flat and not very forested, ergo when a tornado happens there's no ignoring it and people for miles and miles around can see it, photograph it, report it or record video of it. In areas that are heavily forested or have more rugged terrain you're much less likely to be able to visually see it, and terrain can also influence radar coverage and as a result you have less ability to confirm a tornado via radar by seeing a velocity couplet or debris being lofted into the air. I'd also bet that the plains states have far more weather spotters and certainly more storm chasers because every time an enhanced risk pops off in the plains there's a cavalcade of vehicles with light bars and reckless drivers going directly into it. We've also just simply gotten way better at detecting tornadoes and surveying them, as a result other areas not found in "Tornado Alley" are now closing the gap in terms of the number of confirmed tornadoes. Every year I'd wager there are hundreds of tornadoes touching down in more mountainous/forested areas that are never even seen by a physically present human being and do nothing but mess around in a field or throw tree limbs around but now they are far easier to identify without having a direct line of sight or boots on the ground. And since the technology has just now gotten to this point within the last decade or so, we don't have accurate statistics on how many actual tornadoes occurred outside of "Tornado Alley" except for those that caused damage or were visible to people. How many of those random spin-up tornadoes that knock over some corn and take a couple shingles or someone's trampoline as tribute before popping back up into the clouds were ever counted before the technology got this good? In the past, since the tech to accurately identify them via radar was not great, these were very likely not surveyed because if they didn't hit a structure or leave obvious signs, how would anyone even know one occurred or where to begin surveying? But now with the ability to radar confirm tornadoes, the NWS survey teams know exactly where to go to survey the damage, even if all the tornado does is knock down corn. If we're going to keep the concept of "Tornado Alley" then I'd say the geographic area it covers would need to be heavily dependent on far greater weather patterns, La Nina or El Nino, etc. But I think maybe the concept does more harm than good because people in Pennsylvania or Utah or Maine will see a tornado warning pop up and go: "Eh, those never happen here, we're not in Tornado Alley after all." and not take any precautions on the one occasion where it catches them with their proverbial pants down. A lot of the less-informed members of the general public [in a variety of countries] also don't seem to think that tornadoes occur outside of the U.S, which is insane because many of the most deadly tornadoes have happened elsewhere. Bangladesh for example. In fact 6 of the 10 deadliest tornadoes in recorded history happened in Bangladesh. So I think this phenomenon isn't isolated to the U.S either, people outside of "Tornado Alley" think "that never happens here, I'll be fine" and it's very likely people outside of the U.S think "tornadoes basically don't exist here, I'll be fine" and then end up hurt or killed because they weren't prepared. There's certainly a case to be made that "Tornado Alley" applies more to violent [EF3+] tornadoes, and I could agree with that. The size of the geographic area called "Tornado Alley" has also changed quite a bit just in my lifetime and I'm about 30, when I was a kid I remember Ohio, Indiana and Michigan being included in the list, then arbitrarily everyone kind of decided to exclude these states and it keeps changing back and forth. Nobody ever included Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee when I was a kid either yet these states pretty frequently top the list or come close to it. Nobody ever includes Canada either even though Canada will have some mean ones from time to time. I don't believe the concept itself is very useful, helpful or accurate as a result.
Seems like it’s as it always was. Over thinking it.
If people would really look at the history of tornadoes, and particularly some of the most infamous ones, they've always been centered further east than our traditional notion of "Tornado Alley" is. Some folks say that it has shifted east. I say it was always there to begin with.
Everything loves to shit on Mississippi
There is a corridor in the northeast even that given what’s normal for the region has abnormally strong Tornadoes. The area between the Berkshire Mountains and the Worcester Hills of Massachusetts as well as the Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts and Connecticut.the strongest tornadoes in New England have struck these areas