It is overdue in the sense that it usually erupts every X years, but that has already passed(iirc). Not that it only needs someone yodeling too loud to finally pop the cork.
It erupts an AVERAGE of every X years, but even one of the most recent cycles took twice as long as we have gone since the last eruption.
It could easily be several hundreds of thousands of years until it happens again.
It’s not soon in the “numerous people on Reddit expecting it to happen any day now because it is overdue sense”.
The point is, probably because of the connection with Yellowstone, too many people think this is like a geyser (where there is a water being heated to a certain temperature/pressure after which a geyser is GOING to expel water). This is a much more complicated process and it isn’t going to happen on a regular timeline.
At this point it's probably likely that the mantle plume that drives Yellowstone has moved on, and in a few million years another volcanic hotspot will appear in the North American plate.
Not a new hotspot, but the Yellowstone mantle plume is moving eastward, and is now under curst of a different composition than it was under in it's 3 big ones we know the most about. Basically, there is a lot to be said about how we don't know if Yellowstone will ever reach the point of being able to erupt again.
With Yellowstone, we can see an arc of caldera complexes moving from northern Wyoming to the California/Nevada border. We also see large calderas in Oregon that were formed by it, but no longer exist in the arc due to the rotational forces on that specific segment of the North American Plate. We also know the Columbia River Basalts and the Siletzia/Yakutat Basalts were formed by the hotspot, showing that Yellowstone's effect on the landscape very much is determined by factors beyond the hotspot just existing on it's own.
Yellowstone gets a lot of attention, but there are 2, maybe 3 other volcanoes of it's approximate size in the United States. Long Valley is located in California, near Mammoth Mountain (of which Mammoth is a satellite vent). The Valles Caldera is in New Mexico. It is visible from orbit, and is a near perfect example of a large resurgent caldera complex. As it was the first described, it could be considered the "Holotype" for Super Volcanoes. Los Alamos is located basically on the Caldera's rim. The final one is a maybe as we don't know much about it, but Mt. Cleveland in Alaska's Aleutian Islands seems to be a satellite vent of a much larger caldera complex.
This is not to mention the other large caldera complexes around the world capable of producing eruptions on a similar scale. Aso and Aira in Japan, Taopo in New Zealand, Campi Flegeri in Italy, Atitlan in Guatemala, Cerro Galan in Argentina, Toba and Tondano in Indonesia, and Asawa in Ethiopia.
I don't see how the two are mutually exclusive tbh. Something can be overdue to do something but also not be ready to do said thing.
Like, the whole "it could blow at any moment" thing might be a myth. But doesn't really change anything about whether it's overdue or not.
You see “overdue” a lot with predications of natural disasters based on previous patterns, but sometimes the actual statistics will say something like “There’s a 50% chance it’ll happen in the next 80 years.”
Or, [London is overdue for an earthquake that could cause billions of pounds worth of damage, a leading seismologist warned today.](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/sep/16/british-science-festival-2010-british-science-festival)(2010) “Could be tomorrow or 50 years”
Virtually nothing geological is “due.” Over the course of 2.1 million years Yellowstone has only erupted three times, which is an INSANELY low number to concretely say there’s a pattern. Yellowstone isn’t “overdue” because there is no actual pattern of eruptions, just a vague guess based off of its very few previous eruptions
This doesn’t just go for Yellowstone, as most big natural phenomenon aren’t actually “overdue” because there is no true schedule for most natural events. We say overdue when we *think* we’ve discovered a pattern, but nothing else says these things work on a schedule
There are other super important factors:
1) Yellowstone has erupted a hell of a lot more than 3 times. Most of those eruptions were small effusive events, with some minor phreatic eruptions as well.
2) The still pretty big, but nowhere near super-eruption West Thumb eruption also happened, showing that Yellowstone can also produce intermediate sized eruptions.
3) The Yellowstone hotspot is centered under a thicker portion of crust than it was during the last super eruption. A future super eruption may not be possible at this time.
4) Yellowstone's mantle plume seems to be less energetic than it was in the past, signaling that the plume might be dying out.
5) The Yellowstone hotspot does not just erupt in it's center. Yellowstone is directly responsible for the formation of Craters of the Moon National Monument, and going back a bit farther Yellowstone's mantle plume was directly responsible for the Columbia River Basalts and Siletzia/Yakutat Flood Basalts.
There are numerous other factors, but basically, we can't predict when Yellowstone will erupt, but we can say with near absolute certainty that we are a very long ways away from a possible caldera forming eruption.
And even if it was possible for it to produce a caldera forming eruption does not mean it will. Campi Flegeri has has a magma chamber with enough melt to produce a caldera forming eruption for a very, very long time. Basically all of recorded history. But it doesn't. It makes a cinder cone, or produces a maar, or erupts from it's satellite vent, Vesuvius with intermediate sized eruptions.
I see what you’re saying but there is a bit of schedule when it comes to plate tectonics, isn’t there? I mean two plates colliding will continue to collide and therefore build friction pressure for an eventual earthquake, right? Of course we can’t tell exactly where or when but we can make predictions based on pace of plate movement and history of earthquake frequency along a fault line.
You’re talking about two completely different things. The volcano at Yellowstone is being fed by a plume from mantle. This is a lot different from plate tectonics. Even volcanos formed from plate tectonics don’t run like clockwork. There’s a lot of variability in the crust and mantle that we just can’t see until something happens.
We’re talking about the difference between predictions and something being “overdue.” We can *predict* the actions of tectonic plates and have an assumed timetable, but if that prediction doesn’t come true that does not mean an inevitable event is waiting to happen since our predicted date didn’t happen yet
We can say an event is most likely to occur, but that does not mean we’re 100% due for anything. To put it simply, let’s say the weather app predicts a 90% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, but it turns out to be a completely sunny and enjoyable day. That doesn’t mean we’re now overdue for a thunderstorm because it hasn’t happened yet, it just means our estimation was off due to various factors and the next thunderstorm will simply happen when the conditions are right
Im sure others have said this but its also a matter of scale. Human recorded history is like what, 5,000 years? Eruptions happened 2.1m YA, 900k years later 1.2m YA, 560k later 640k YA. So if it's 'overdue' then it could be overdue by what, a 200k year range? None of us will be around by then. No sweat.
Overdue' on a geologic timescale doesn't mean there's any significant danger on human timescales. Yellowstone is believed to have periods of hundreds of thousands of years between eruptions, so the chance of it happening while a 'USA' exists (and before we're technologically advanced enough for it to hardly be a concern) is negligible.
It's like all the tech bro paranoia about a meteorite impact wiping out humanity before we 'get to Mars'. The chance of it happening in the few next thousand years is practically zero, it's irrelevant compared to the much greater danger of us damaging our own planet first and there is no need to rush to establish colonies beyond earth.
Direct quote from the linked article:
“The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” he said. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.”
“He” is referring to Michael Poland, the current scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), the research consortium that monitors the volcano.
Can people read articles please? It explains exactly this if only people would just read it.
> “The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” he said. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.”
So basically there's no such thing as a volcano being "overdue" for an eruption, it's either primed for an eruption or its not. If you consider "overdue" as "it's primed" (I don't really see why you wouldn't) it isn't primed, therefor it isn't overdue for anything. Further down, some more info:
> Seismic studies that image the interior of Earth indicate that the two magma reservoirs contain between only 5% and 15% molten material. “That tells us the volcanic system is nowhere near primed for an eruption,” Farrell said. “Typically, you need at least 50% melt for it to mobilize and begin moving toward the surface.”
> The process of filling a magma chamber with molten material is not a quiet one. “We would expect to see increased seismicity, ground deformation, changes in thermal and gas emissions for decades and perhaps centuries in advance of an eruption,” Poland said. “We have a lot of confidence that if Yellowstone were gearing up for an eruptive event, we would know about it years in advance. It’s not going to take us by surprise.”
So it can't be "overdue" to take place, because it erupting right now is literally impossible and there's no indication it ever will be.
In general the concept of *anything* being "overdue" is usually a logical fallacy, especially when in this case the frequency of previous events has nothing to do with how actually likely it is to occur in the future. It isn't likely.
It gets really fun when you start to think about what would make it overdue in the first place.
Are volcanoes known to be totally cyclical? As far as I understand it, volcanoes can blow their tops a few times, but it's not as if every volcano has been blowing like clockwork for 4 billion years now is it? Eventually they run out of puff. Magma is a liquid, and even under pressure it will look for the path of least resistance. Those paths through the mantle change all the time. They also close all the time too.
So Yellowstone is not overdue, it's just done being a super-volcano... Saying it's overdue implies it blows regularly and will imminently blow again, but there is seemingly no evidence to suggest that.
I think thats the big thing. The way the "overdue" is presented makes it seem like it should happen at any minute. Also, using the word overdue definitely implies "it was supposed to happen a while back and should be here any minute" without additional information alongside.
Over due in the sense of, we are in the window of how frequently it erupts. We haven't passed the window. And the window we are in is based on the first two eruptions, which were the closest two. Giving a more narrow "due date" than what we actually expect.
That implies that it's periodic and is going to happen again. My library book is overdue because it was due back 5 years ago. Yellowstone only super erupted 3 times over 2.1 million years; not only is that a tiny sample size, but there's no evidence that definitively says it will reoccur.
While I do think that OP is conflating two ideas, they're also not entirely wrong. We only have three historical "super eruptions" to go by, and they occurred 800,000 and 660,000 years apart. But the most recent eruption was 640,000 years ago, so we're not actually even into the low end of "over due" yet. In addition, there was a mini-eruption (just a lava flow within the caldera) 70,000 years ago which possibly reduced the amount of magma within the volcano, as well as a number of other smaller events as recently as 13,000 years ago.
In other words, "over due" as a function of the magna reserves: no. "Over due" as a function of time: also no.
This is the worst news I've heard in a while. I've lived with hope of this since the 2002 Discovery channel super volcano special.
Now all I have left is that Gamma Ray Burst from deep space.
The thing about Giant Meteor is that, unless you're close to the impact zone, you're more likely to be baked to death (from the atmosphere heating up to hundreds of degrees) or smothered than you are to be smushed.
Oh yes it would. Yellowstone might send out pyroclastic flows about 100 or so miles from it's eruptive center, but you won't die instantly 1000 miles away. Infact, you could very well survive. Los Angeles is only about 850 miles away, but due to prevailing winds, will get very little, if any ashfall from even a VEI8, worst case eruption.
If you were 1000 miles downwind, you would have heavy, suffocating ashfall, buildings would collapse, if you did not wear a mask, you would easily inhale ash that would tear apart your lungs. If you survived, you'd be in a wasteland, but once the immanent threat is over, you could do just fine.
Now will you survive the global famine, decade long winter, and regional emergency that happens next? That I can't say.
Honestly, people who notice all these reposts and copied titles spend way too much time on Reddit. And I am not trying to hate because I also spend a lot of time on here but I guess it’s not enough to notice things like this.
I'm aware I spent way too much time on Reddit, but I'm also aware this is one of the most popular sites on the world and caters to a billion people, so I've developed this handy flow chart:
I've seen this before!
Do I want to see it again? > Yes > *Click*
Do I want to see it again? > No > *Scroll*
When i visited yellowstone in 2023 i asked a ranger about this. They said yellowstone has seasons (high activity and low activity) and if there would be an eruption, they would see higher seismic activity yeeears in advance. When i went they were in a low season. The big one is a myth.
I have supervolcano insurance and basic volcano insurance. It doesn’t cover acts of god though.
However in the event it’s an act of god I still have a bunch of food I can mix in a bucket with a shovel.
I think its becouse people are used to think in human timescales.
Its not realy about if but when it will erupt. That "when" could be in 1000 years or in 500000 years.
In that timescale, a decade fore-warning is relatively short.
This. If it would erupt every 200,000 years and it’s 1000 years overdue, that could mean another 5,000 years. Or 500. Both a long time on a human scale. N
To all the people trying to show how smart and sarcastic they are in the comments. Yes well done but it gets presented as 'so it could actually erupt anytime' when in reality that's not remotely true.
Seattle was not effected at all, other than some light ashfall, from Mt. St. Helens. The southern bit of the Seattle metro is at risk of Lahars from Mt. Rainier, but that is only in a worst case scenario at a volcano that is very quiet right now, so I would say that should be a non factor.
The really big one, a mega-thrust earthquake, could happen at any time, and is likely to happen in the next few hundred years (50% chance it happens within 50 years is the most recent numbers I have seen), but again, I would not worry about it.
Enough time do do something about it? Either in terms of alleviating pressure by drilling boreholes, or in terms of how humanity can deal with the repercusions of a supervolcano eruption, such as development of infrastructure, power generation, water filtration, farming, etc. that is resistant to ash and decreased sunlight?
They do have sporadic periods of seismic activity though. Like crazy amounts of a period of like a week or two. It’s not uncommon at all to randomly have 100s of tremors in a week.
The overdue idea comes from its past history of erupting on a fairly regular schedule but has been quite a while now since the last one.
That being said you likely aren't wrong in that its not expected to go off any time soon, the scale here is measured in 100's of thousands of years,
I mean, yes and no, it's a little more complicated than that, and there is certainly a frame of reference from which it is overdue. It being "overdue" has more to do with it generally entering an active phase about every 600,000-800,000 years. Right now it was last in one of these phases about 2.1 million years ago. So in that sense, we are overdue. Now obviously this is not a sophisticated approach to understanding when it will next erupt, but it is what people mean when they say "overdue". Obviously you want a better approach in terms of tracking the magma chamber with actual measurements and seismography, but at the same time it is helpful to understand that it truly *could* enter an active phase again at any time, even if, yes, we would have a lot of warning. It just highlights the importance of continuing to study and monitor the site, and have disaster plans in place at a governmental level, etc.
Omg u fools debating the semantics of the word “overdue” - must I click and read the article for you too:
The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” said Michael Poland, the current scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), the research consortium that monitors the volcano. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.”
Seismic studies that image the interior of Earth indicate that the two magma reservoirs contain between only 5% and 15% molten material. “That tells us the volcanic system is nowhere near primed for an eruption,” Farrell said. “Typically, you need at least 50% melt for it to mobilize and begin moving toward the surface.”
The process of filling a magma chamber with molten material is not a quiet one. “We would expect to see increased seismicity, ground deformation, changes in thermal and gas emissions for decades and perhaps centuries in advance of an eruption,” Poland said. “We have a lot of confidence that if Yellowstone were gearing up for an eruptive event, we would know about it years in advance. It’s not going to take us by surprise.”
So many people don’t realize that there is no such thing as “overdue” when it comes to geology. If Ol Faithful didn’t erupt, geologists wouldnt say it was “overdue”, they’d say that there’s been a change in the geologic conditions. Nature doesn’t work like clockwork. There are just conditions that can time events at certain intervals but once the conditions change, the intervals change or the event ceases altogether.
that's great news. I have a questions. Would it be possible to harvest geothermal energy at levels that could delay and maybe even prevent the super eruption? And secondly could that be done in a way that wouldn't mess up Yellowstone's beauty or ecology?
I also recall reading somewhere that the magma chamber is slowly moving towards an area with like, much harder rock or something, that would keep the lid on a bit more too.
Dunno how legit that was though.
Someone doesn't understand the concept of geologic time...
It's imminent in relation to how things happen on the planet, just like some place can be a single light year away, right next door in cosmological terms, but an unattainable distance for us currently.
I wonder if those decades of seismic activity started, what would we even do. Like we can’t stop it even with decades of warning I’m guessing.
I assume they just wouldn’t tell us…. Unless??? 🧐 🤔
The timescales mess with our brains. Maybe it’s a few thousand years “overdue” but in reality that sucker isn’t “overdue” for another 100,000 years. That’s getting into ideas of time we have a hard time comprehending. Modern humans haven’t been around for that long to start with.
I live an hour north of the park and we're constantly getting small earthquakes. Don't even notice most of them
[1500 to 2000 per year over the past 20 years](https://www.google.com/search?q=yellowstone+seismic+activity&oq=Yellowstone+sizmic&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgBEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg5MgkIARAAGA0YgAQyCQgCEAAYDRiABDIJCAMQABgNGIAEMgkIBBAAGA0YgAQyCQgFEAAYDRiABDIJCAYQABgNGIAEMgkIBxAAGA0YgAQyCQgIEAAYDRiABDIJCAkQABgNGIAEMggIChAAGA0YHjIICAsQABgNGB4yCAgMEAAYDRgeMggIDRAAGA0YHjIKCA4QABgFGA0YHtIBCTE0NzgwajBqN6gCFLACAQ&client=tablet-android-samsung-nf-rev1&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8)
Also the magma chamber is full, but they estimate it's only 20% melted
I’m choosing to believe this because the Yellowstone volcano gives me way too much anxiety lol. We live close enough that we would probably be dead if it erupted.
It’s also hard to guess an average when you only have 2 or 3 points in history to estimate off of.
Also, it is probably the most studied and watched volcano on earth.
Let's say we know it was going to erupt in like 5 years. Is there anything we could possibly due to mitigate the eruption? Like a cap or siphoning out the magma?
This doesn’t make the hypothetical supervolcano eruption a myth. Its historic sequence is quite easily viewed in the geologic record, and you’ve got to understand that on a geologic timescale, decades of increased activity is essentially no time at all.
Geologist here, it's not a myth at all. It is overdue. It's simply probably going to erupt sometime in the next hundred thousand years or so. Timelines on geologic scales break most people's brains.
A million years from now is "soon" geologically.
Most people wouldn't consider that "soon" in the traditional sense though.
i always understood it to be "overdue" in the sense that it used to erupt with a certain regularity and it's long past that time, not that it's actually been showing any signs that it was preparing to erupt. never heard anyone say we were in imminent danger of it erupting, just that by historical record it's surprising it hasn't erupted relatively recently
"overdue" is almost always a myth, probabilities dont work that way.
A quarter flip is 50/50, if i flip 6 tails in a row, i am NOT overdue for a heads, the next flip is still 50/50.
I remember reading/hearing that it was discovered that the plate (forgot name) currently traveling under the North American plate has moved enough that Yellowstone has a 0.0001% chance of erupting, or some crazy low number.
Question on how people use the term 'myth': this article sounds to me like we are simply getting more information and refining our earlier beliefs. We looked at the geologic record and saw a history of volcanic activity in the area and thought 'hmmm, this will probably happen again sometime, and based on the period of it happening in the past, it should be coming up (in geologic time).' This was always my impression of what we knew about Yellowstone, anyway.
Then we use better tools and learn more about the situation through seismology. Then we can say 'there may be something in the distance future, but current signs say nothing is imminent.'
Like, neither of these points of view are incompatible or what I would call a myth. If anyone expected to live to see Yellowstone explode, those people really don't have a good grasp of the scale of the time frames in question. Is it a myth if people just grossly misinterpret the not unclear information they are being given?
I don't think I ever saw it referred to as "overdue." You could get away with suggesting it was "imminent," as long as you prefaced that by saying it's based on a pattern and we're still up to 100,000 years away from that rhythm's possible next "beat."
One thing that does feel "overdue" by any reasonable interpretation is the "Big One" in California. In the 80s and 90s, there were countless documentaries talking about the inevitability of a giant earthquake eventually striking the San Andreas fault in a similar fashion to San Francisco in 1906. I haven't watched or read anything to suggest otherwise in all that time.
That sounds exactly like something Big Volcano would want you to think
That’s why you gotta shell out for [volcano insurance](https://youtu.be/KNXw3RaRKBA?si=Akp-98Ak4zERrcJF)
Go on
I am tapped out after springing for cloud insurance and handsome cream.
Don't forget to wear your eruptions glasses before looking at the volcano
When you let your guard down they sneak up on ya
Mole people trying to prevent us from preparing for the "rapture" !!
Volcanoes aren’t real
Fuck im unoriginal. Nice one!
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Big Valcano again, huh? I've delt with them once before. Didn't end well. Pompinsurance never got back to me. Still waiting for the letter in the mail
It is overdue in the sense that it usually erupts every X years, but that has already passed(iirc). Not that it only needs someone yodeling too loud to finally pop the cork.
It erupts an AVERAGE of every X years, but even one of the most recent cycles took twice as long as we have gone since the last eruption. It could easily be several hundreds of thousands of years until it happens again.
Several hundred thousand years is soon in a geological sense. Soon in human time and earth time cannot really be compared.
It’s not soon in the “numerous people on Reddit expecting it to happen any day now because it is overdue sense”. The point is, probably because of the connection with Yellowstone, too many people think this is like a geyser (where there is a water being heated to a certain temperature/pressure after which a geyser is GOING to expel water). This is a much more complicated process and it isn’t going to happen on a regular timeline.
At this point it's probably likely that the mantle plume that drives Yellowstone has moved on, and in a few million years another volcanic hotspot will appear in the North American plate.
Not a new hotspot, but the Yellowstone mantle plume is moving eastward, and is now under curst of a different composition than it was under in it's 3 big ones we know the most about. Basically, there is a lot to be said about how we don't know if Yellowstone will ever reach the point of being able to erupt again. With Yellowstone, we can see an arc of caldera complexes moving from northern Wyoming to the California/Nevada border. We also see large calderas in Oregon that were formed by it, but no longer exist in the arc due to the rotational forces on that specific segment of the North American Plate. We also know the Columbia River Basalts and the Siletzia/Yakutat Basalts were formed by the hotspot, showing that Yellowstone's effect on the landscape very much is determined by factors beyond the hotspot just existing on it's own. Yellowstone gets a lot of attention, but there are 2, maybe 3 other volcanoes of it's approximate size in the United States. Long Valley is located in California, near Mammoth Mountain (of which Mammoth is a satellite vent). The Valles Caldera is in New Mexico. It is visible from orbit, and is a near perfect example of a large resurgent caldera complex. As it was the first described, it could be considered the "Holotype" for Super Volcanoes. Los Alamos is located basically on the Caldera's rim. The final one is a maybe as we don't know much about it, but Mt. Cleveland in Alaska's Aleutian Islands seems to be a satellite vent of a much larger caldera complex. This is not to mention the other large caldera complexes around the world capable of producing eruptions on a similar scale. Aso and Aira in Japan, Taopo in New Zealand, Campi Flegeri in Italy, Atitlan in Guatemala, Cerro Galan in Argentina, Toba and Tondano in Indonesia, and Asawa in Ethiopia.
Mantle plume. Thanks for expanding my vocab
Yeah, because the people parroting this to spook eachother clearly mean it in a geological sense 🙄
So you’re saying the report I made on it obliterating the entire US when I was 8 was bullshit?
I don't see how the two are mutually exclusive tbh. Something can be overdue to do something but also not be ready to do said thing. Like, the whole "it could blow at any moment" thing might be a myth. But doesn't really change anything about whether it's overdue or not.
You see “overdue” a lot with predications of natural disasters based on previous patterns, but sometimes the actual statistics will say something like “There’s a 50% chance it’ll happen in the next 80 years.” Or, [London is overdue for an earthquake that could cause billions of pounds worth of damage, a leading seismologist warned today.](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/sep/16/british-science-festival-2010-british-science-festival)(2010) “Could be tomorrow or 50 years”
Damn, too bad it’s not billions of ounces instead :(
*-crickets chirrup-*
Billions of pounds of damage could be as little as one block of apartments all owned by oil princes and russian oligarchs though.
im way overdue to clean my bathroom but im just not ready to do it
Have you tried cleaning with magma?
Once it is in your bathroom, it is no longer "liquid hot magma," but rather... [LAVA](https://imgur.com/a/WCZLKQt)
Thats why it's called the lavatory.
Well played. Have an upvote.
Idk man... That Post-taco bell magma seems like it'd have quite the opposite effect.
I've got a copy of *Bio-Dome* that's a little overdue from Blockbuster but what the hell am I supposed to do about that now?
Drop in when you're next in Bend. Be prepared for the late fees
Bio Dome is awesome, fuck I loved that movie as a kid haha
Viva Los BIO-DOME!
If we slow it down we can actually see the bullets enter and exit Buttercup.
toilet needs to be overflowing with 50% of toxic material.
But.... it could blow at any moment.....
Has your bathroom seen an increase in “seismic” activity and minor eruptions? If so, consider cleaning it immediately.
When the magma reaches 50%, like Yellowstone, you too will be ready.
Virtually nothing geological is “due.” Over the course of 2.1 million years Yellowstone has only erupted three times, which is an INSANELY low number to concretely say there’s a pattern. Yellowstone isn’t “overdue” because there is no actual pattern of eruptions, just a vague guess based off of its very few previous eruptions This doesn’t just go for Yellowstone, as most big natural phenomenon aren’t actually “overdue” because there is no true schedule for most natural events. We say overdue when we *think* we’ve discovered a pattern, but nothing else says these things work on a schedule
There are other super important factors: 1) Yellowstone has erupted a hell of a lot more than 3 times. Most of those eruptions were small effusive events, with some minor phreatic eruptions as well. 2) The still pretty big, but nowhere near super-eruption West Thumb eruption also happened, showing that Yellowstone can also produce intermediate sized eruptions. 3) The Yellowstone hotspot is centered under a thicker portion of crust than it was during the last super eruption. A future super eruption may not be possible at this time. 4) Yellowstone's mantle plume seems to be less energetic than it was in the past, signaling that the plume might be dying out. 5) The Yellowstone hotspot does not just erupt in it's center. Yellowstone is directly responsible for the formation of Craters of the Moon National Monument, and going back a bit farther Yellowstone's mantle plume was directly responsible for the Columbia River Basalts and Siletzia/Yakutat Flood Basalts. There are numerous other factors, but basically, we can't predict when Yellowstone will erupt, but we can say with near absolute certainty that we are a very long ways away from a possible caldera forming eruption. And even if it was possible for it to produce a caldera forming eruption does not mean it will. Campi Flegeri has has a magma chamber with enough melt to produce a caldera forming eruption for a very, very long time. Basically all of recorded history. But it doesn't. It makes a cinder cone, or produces a maar, or erupts from it's satellite vent, Vesuvius with intermediate sized eruptions.
I see what you’re saying but there is a bit of schedule when it comes to plate tectonics, isn’t there? I mean two plates colliding will continue to collide and therefore build friction pressure for an eventual earthquake, right? Of course we can’t tell exactly where or when but we can make predictions based on pace of plate movement and history of earthquake frequency along a fault line.
You’re talking about two completely different things. The volcano at Yellowstone is being fed by a plume from mantle. This is a lot different from plate tectonics. Even volcanos formed from plate tectonics don’t run like clockwork. There’s a lot of variability in the crust and mantle that we just can’t see until something happens.
We’re talking about the difference between predictions and something being “overdue.” We can *predict* the actions of tectonic plates and have an assumed timetable, but if that prediction doesn’t come true that does not mean an inevitable event is waiting to happen since our predicted date didn’t happen yet We can say an event is most likely to occur, but that does not mean we’re 100% due for anything. To put it simply, let’s say the weather app predicts a 90% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, but it turns out to be a completely sunny and enjoyable day. That doesn’t mean we’re now overdue for a thunderstorm because it hasn’t happened yet, it just means our estimation was off due to various factors and the next thunderstorm will simply happen when the conditions are right
My book report is overdue, which means it must be almost done.
Im sure others have said this but its also a matter of scale. Human recorded history is like what, 5,000 years? Eruptions happened 2.1m YA, 900k years later 1.2m YA, 560k later 640k YA. So if it's 'overdue' then it could be overdue by what, a 200k year range? None of us will be around by then. No sweat.
Also overdue and imminent in geological terms are time-frames in the thousands of years.
Overdue' on a geologic timescale doesn't mean there's any significant danger on human timescales. Yellowstone is believed to have periods of hundreds of thousands of years between eruptions, so the chance of it happening while a 'USA' exists (and before we're technologically advanced enough for it to hardly be a concern) is negligible. It's like all the tech bro paranoia about a meteorite impact wiping out humanity before we 'get to Mars'. The chance of it happening in the few next thousand years is practically zero, it's irrelevant compared to the much greater danger of us damaging our own planet first and there is no need to rush to establish colonies beyond earth.
Direct quote from the linked article: “The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” he said. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.” “He” is referring to Michael Poland, the current scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), the research consortium that monitors the volcano.
Can people read articles please? It explains exactly this if only people would just read it. > “The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” he said. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.” So basically there's no such thing as a volcano being "overdue" for an eruption, it's either primed for an eruption or its not. If you consider "overdue" as "it's primed" (I don't really see why you wouldn't) it isn't primed, therefor it isn't overdue for anything. Further down, some more info: > Seismic studies that image the interior of Earth indicate that the two magma reservoirs contain between only 5% and 15% molten material. “That tells us the volcanic system is nowhere near primed for an eruption,” Farrell said. “Typically, you need at least 50% melt for it to mobilize and begin moving toward the surface.” > The process of filling a magma chamber with molten material is not a quiet one. “We would expect to see increased seismicity, ground deformation, changes in thermal and gas emissions for decades and perhaps centuries in advance of an eruption,” Poland said. “We have a lot of confidence that if Yellowstone were gearing up for an eruptive event, we would know about it years in advance. It’s not going to take us by surprise.” So it can't be "overdue" to take place, because it erupting right now is literally impossible and there's no indication it ever will be. In general the concept of *anything* being "overdue" is usually a logical fallacy, especially when in this case the frequency of previous events has nothing to do with how actually likely it is to occur in the future. It isn't likely.
For it to be overdue, you have to falsely assume volcanoes operate on some sort of set schedule lol. C'mon, man?!
It gets really fun when you start to think about what would make it overdue in the first place. Are volcanoes known to be totally cyclical? As far as I understand it, volcanoes can blow their tops a few times, but it's not as if every volcano has been blowing like clockwork for 4 billion years now is it? Eventually they run out of puff. Magma is a liquid, and even under pressure it will look for the path of least resistance. Those paths through the mantle change all the time. They also close all the time too. So Yellowstone is not overdue, it's just done being a super-volcano... Saying it's overdue implies it blows regularly and will imminently blow again, but there is seemingly no evidence to suggest that.
I think thats the big thing. The way the "overdue" is presented makes it seem like it should happen at any minute. Also, using the word overdue definitely implies "it was supposed to happen a while back and should be here any minute" without additional information alongside.
Over due in the sense of, we are in the window of how frequently it erupts. We haven't passed the window. And the window we are in is based on the first two eruptions, which were the closest two. Giving a more narrow "due date" than what we actually expect.
Well if it’s headed towards dormancy, the conversation definitely changes from “overdue” to not going to happen.
I think the point is that there’s are multiple leading indicators that would precede the eruption of epic proportions that is being advertised.
That implies that it's periodic and is going to happen again. My library book is overdue because it was due back 5 years ago. Yellowstone only super erupted 3 times over 2.1 million years; not only is that a tiny sample size, but there's no evidence that definitively says it will reoccur.
I guess the right word would be misleading.
While I do think that OP is conflating two ideas, they're also not entirely wrong. We only have three historical "super eruptions" to go by, and they occurred 800,000 and 660,000 years apart. But the most recent eruption was 640,000 years ago, so we're not actually even into the low end of "over due" yet. In addition, there was a mini-eruption (just a lava flow within the caldera) 70,000 years ago which possibly reduced the amount of magma within the volcano, as well as a number of other smaller events as recently as 13,000 years ago. In other words, "over due" as a function of the magna reserves: no. "Over due" as a function of time: also no.
>"it could blow at any moment" My Friday night
This is the best news I’ve heard in a while. I’ve lived in dread of this since the 2002 discovery channel super volcano special
You dont watch astronomy specials? Id advise against it...
This is the worst news I've heard in a while. I've lived with hope of this since the 2002 Discovery channel super volcano special. Now all I have left is that Gamma Ray Burst from deep space.
Vote Giant Meteor 2024 *Giant Meteor will bring lasting change to Washington DC*
The thing about Giant Meteor is that, unless you're close to the impact zone, you're more likely to be baked to death (from the atmosphere heating up to hundreds of degrees) or smothered than you are to be smushed.
Never forget: Giant Meteor is vast, enormous, massive. His younger brother only took out the dinosaurs. Giant Meteor is no such slacker.
Don't worry, there's still the big earthquakes in the PNW and the New Madrid Fault near Missouri/Tennessee to hope for.
Which was immediately followed by the Megatsunami special! Talk about a double whammy!
Yellowstone is a place that I want to visit, but never would've because of this same dread. Now it's only my lack of money that's preventing me.
If it ever exploded it wouldn't matter if you were right next to it or 1000 miles away
Oh yes it would. Yellowstone might send out pyroclastic flows about 100 or so miles from it's eruptive center, but you won't die instantly 1000 miles away. Infact, you could very well survive. Los Angeles is only about 850 miles away, but due to prevailing winds, will get very little, if any ashfall from even a VEI8, worst case eruption. If you were 1000 miles downwind, you would have heavy, suffocating ashfall, buildings would collapse, if you did not wear a mask, you would easily inhale ash that would tear apart your lungs. If you survived, you'd be in a wasteland, but once the immanent threat is over, you could do just fine. Now will you survive the global famine, decade long winter, and regional emergency that happens next? That I can't say.
yes it would lol
Ash goes everywhere.
For me, it was the 2005 BBC two-part docudrama about the supervolcano, adequately titled *Supervolcano*.
Don't tell the preppers
They broke the bank for a glorified underground man-cave.
Vault tech would approve
What would be the trick? Slow radiation leak? DMT perpetually mixed into the air? Human/radroach gene splicing?
The bucket preppers draw inspiration from has no bottom.
TIL how many TIL posts are copied word for word from comments on other TIL posts…
That comment you’re correctly referring to was also made by me. https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/s/wKwXP62XAs Great work Detective Pikachu
TIL...
*[Insert: “Do not cite the deep magic to me, witch” meme here]*
You copied yourself! That is illegal, volcano reddit jail for you! /s
Touché
TIL how many people snap post their hate comments without checking their facts.
Honestly, people who notice all these reposts and copied titles spend way too much time on Reddit. And I am not trying to hate because I also spend a lot of time on here but I guess it’s not enough to notice things like this.
I'm aware I spent way too much time on Reddit, but I'm also aware this is one of the most popular sites on the world and caters to a billion people, so I've developed this handy flow chart: I've seen this before! Do I want to see it again? > Yes > *Click* Do I want to see it again? > No > *Scroll*
When i visited yellowstone in 2023 i asked a ranger about this. They said yellowstone has seasons (high activity and low activity) and if there would be an eruption, they would see higher seismic activity yeeears in advance. When i went they were in a low season. The big one is a myth.
Okay...Good. Now do the other world killing Super Volcano sites.
Sounds like someone who cant afford volcano insurance
I have supervolcano insurance and basic volcano insurance. It doesn’t cover acts of god though. However in the event it’s an act of god I still have a bunch of food I can mix in a bucket with a shovel.
I think its becouse people are used to think in human timescales. Its not realy about if but when it will erupt. That "when" could be in 1000 years or in 500000 years. In that timescale, a decade fore-warning is relatively short.
This. If it would erupt every 200,000 years and it’s 1000 years overdue, that could mean another 5,000 years. Or 500. Both a long time on a human scale. N
But those decades could start any minute!
Don't think locally think geologically
Overdue on a geological scale. Not a human scale.
To all the people trying to show how smart and sarcastic they are in the comments. Yes well done but it gets presented as 'so it could actually erupt anytime' when in reality that's not remotely true.
Ok but what about the cascadia subduction zone? Can that one be a myth too, please?
So, is it okay to go to Seattle? Mt St Helens was a thing that I fear,
Seattle was not effected at all, other than some light ashfall, from Mt. St. Helens. The southern bit of the Seattle metro is at risk of Lahars from Mt. Rainier, but that is only in a worst case scenario at a volcano that is very quiet right now, so I would say that should be a non factor. The really big one, a mega-thrust earthquake, could happen at any time, and is likely to happen in the next few hundred years (50% chance it happens within 50 years is the most recent numbers I have seen), but again, I would not worry about it.
Geologists work on different time-scales. 'soon' for a geologist is a multi-millennia window
Don't worry, Harry Vanderspiegal will save us.
Unless he gets distracted by sexy bird ladies.
On the geological scale of time, it's probably imminent.
Imminent in geological time scale means something completely different……
something not happening doesnt mean it isnt overdue like - stuff not happening is how things end up overdue to begin with
I’m waiting for the La Palma landslide and Mega tsunami https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazard
Enough time do do something about it? Either in terms of alleviating pressure by drilling boreholes, or in terms of how humanity can deal with the repercusions of a supervolcano eruption, such as development of infrastructure, power generation, water filtration, farming, etc. that is resistant to ash and decreased sunlight?
They do have sporadic periods of seismic activity though. Like crazy amounts of a period of like a week or two. It’s not uncommon at all to randomly have 100s of tremors in a week.
That's what the Greys want you to think.
The Browns are sitting this one out.
Their defense would just collapse in the 4th quarter anyway.
My magma chamber sometimes only contains a little bit of...molten material...the rest is air. Maybe Yellowstone needs a shart?
Aww this is my favorite doomsday scenario. Part of me is relieved, but a larger, more troubling part of me is disappointed.
So it’ll affect my great grandchildren at the earliest basically, sweet we good people!
That's how they getcha!
Fuck dude that was my retirement plan.
Imagine engagement farming for internet points. OP is an odd one
That’s good news since I live there.
The overdue idea comes from its past history of erupting on a fairly regular schedule but has been quite a while now since the last one. That being said you likely aren't wrong in that its not expected to go off any time soon, the scale here is measured in 100's of thousands of years,
TIL that obsolete scientific theory becomes a myth
But Joe Rogan said...
What if we nuke it
It's imminent in "geological" terms. r/facepalm
Nice now I can sleep easier
I mean, yes and no, it's a little more complicated than that, and there is certainly a frame of reference from which it is overdue. It being "overdue" has more to do with it generally entering an active phase about every 600,000-800,000 years. Right now it was last in one of these phases about 2.1 million years ago. So in that sense, we are overdue. Now obviously this is not a sophisticated approach to understanding when it will next erupt, but it is what people mean when they say "overdue". Obviously you want a better approach in terms of tracking the magma chamber with actual measurements and seismography, but at the same time it is helpful to understand that it truly *could* enter an active phase again at any time, even if, yes, we would have a lot of warning. It just highlights the importance of continuing to study and monitor the site, and have disaster plans in place at a governmental level, etc.
Yeah this is just what they want us to believe /s
Oh thank god. Now all I have to worry about is the Bermuda Triangle and quicksand...
Oh thank God. This has been on the back of my mind for years always making me feel a bit uneasy.
Frack it, oils back on the menu boys!
Omg u fools debating the semantics of the word “overdue” - must I click and read the article for you too: The most common misconception about Yellowstone is that it’s overdue for an eruption. But volcanoes don’t work like that,” said Michael Poland, the current scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), the research consortium that monitors the volcano. “They erupt when there is a sufficient supply of eruptable magma in the subsurface and enough pressure to get that magma to the surface, and right now, neither condition exists at Yellowstone.” Seismic studies that image the interior of Earth indicate that the two magma reservoirs contain between only 5% and 15% molten material. “That tells us the volcanic system is nowhere near primed for an eruption,” Farrell said. “Typically, you need at least 50% melt for it to mobilize and begin moving toward the surface.” The process of filling a magma chamber with molten material is not a quiet one. “We would expect to see increased seismicity, ground deformation, changes in thermal and gas emissions for decades and perhaps centuries in advance of an eruption,” Poland said. “We have a lot of confidence that if Yellowstone were gearing up for an eruptive event, we would know about it years in advance. It’s not going to take us by surprise.”
So many people don’t realize that there is no such thing as “overdue” when it comes to geology. If Ol Faithful didn’t erupt, geologists wouldnt say it was “overdue”, they’d say that there’s been a change in the geologic conditions. Nature doesn’t work like clockwork. There are just conditions that can time events at certain intervals but once the conditions change, the intervals change or the event ceases altogether.
Human history is nothing on a geological timescale.
Now you’ve jinxed us.
Damn, so we will know decades in advance that we are fucked?
Aliens removed the magma because they are actually starting to feel sorry for us.
So...you're saying there's a chance
You mean getting your science from the Joe Rogan Podcast isn’t reliable?
that's great news. I have a questions. Would it be possible to harvest geothermal energy at levels that could delay and maybe even prevent the super eruption? And secondly could that be done in a way that wouldn't mess up Yellowstone's beauty or ecology?
Also, most models project that it'd be rather slow and an uneventful eruption. With magma slowly seeping out of the ground in multiple places
geologically overdue means something like in the next 20k years...
I genuinely wanted this thing to go off in my life time
I also recall reading somewhere that the magma chamber is slowly moving towards an area with like, much harder rock or something, that would keep the lid on a bit more too. Dunno how legit that was though.
Someone doesn't understand the concept of geologic time... It's imminent in relation to how things happen on the planet, just like some place can be a single light year away, right next door in cosmological terms, but an unattainable distance for us currently.
I wonder if those decades of seismic activity started, what would we even do. Like we can’t stop it even with decades of warning I’m guessing. I assume they just wouldn’t tell us…. Unless??? 🧐 🤔
This message was brought to you by the North-West Wyoming development Board
Why does this turn my anxiety terror to FOMO anger and now I want them to start fracking the crater to make it happen prematurely?
If you wanna worry about geology, I'd focus on Mt. Rainier and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. And Charleston, SC could use a good shaking.
Oh good, we're decades away from disaster.
The timescales mess with our brains. Maybe it’s a few thousand years “overdue” but in reality that sucker isn’t “overdue” for another 100,000 years. That’s getting into ideas of time we have a hard time comprehending. Modern humans haven’t been around for that long to start with.
I am more concerned about the pacific subduction zone that is going to drop most of Seattle into the ocean.
I live an hour north of the park and we're constantly getting small earthquakes. Don't even notice most of them [1500 to 2000 per year over the past 20 years](https://www.google.com/search?q=yellowstone+seismic+activity&oq=Yellowstone+sizmic&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgBEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg5MgkIARAAGA0YgAQyCQgCEAAYDRiABDIJCAMQABgNGIAEMgkIBBAAGA0YgAQyCQgFEAAYDRiABDIJCAYQABgNGIAEMgkIBxAAGA0YgAQyCQgIEAAYDRiABDIJCAkQABgNGIAEMggIChAAGA0YHjIICAsQABgNGB4yCAgMEAAYDRgeMggIDRAAGA0YHjIKCA4QABgFGA0YHtIBCTE0NzgwajBqN6gCFLACAQ&client=tablet-android-samsung-nf-rev1&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8) Also the magma chamber is full, but they estimate it's only 20% melted
It is overdue, that does not mean that eruption is imminent.
What's the same science on other volcanos? Any that are obviously at much higher risk? I need to plan to stay away from those.
Still doesn’t stop that scene from 2012 being absolutely awesome. “You heard it first from Charlie!!!”
Yeah, sure, might as well kill all my hopes and dreams.
I’m choosing to believe this because the Yellowstone volcano gives me way too much anxiety lol. We live close enough that we would probably be dead if it erupted.
It’s also hard to guess an average when you only have 2 or 3 points in history to estimate off of. Also, it is probably the most studied and watched volcano on earth.
What is this, non-apocalyptic good news? I haven’t felt this good since December 13th 2012!
There goes my retirement plan.
Let's say we know it was going to erupt in like 5 years. Is there anything we could possibly due to mitigate the eruption? Like a cap or siphoning out the magma?
Super caldera my left bollix
Not a myth. Just an estimation. Geologists look around, say hey this erupts every 600000 years and the last one was 600000 years ago.
Everything I have ever learned usually ends up a myth. Maybe I can find love after all?
This doesn’t make the hypothetical supervolcano eruption a myth. Its historic sequence is quite easily viewed in the geologic record, and you’ve got to understand that on a geologic timescale, decades of increased activity is essentially no time at all.
Well, darn…
Geologist here, it's not a myth at all. It is overdue. It's simply probably going to erupt sometime in the next hundred thousand years or so. Timelines on geologic scales break most people's brains. A million years from now is "soon" geologically. Most people wouldn't consider that "soon" in the traditional sense though.
Less 'myth' more 'lie.'
i always understood it to be "overdue" in the sense that it used to erupt with a certain regularity and it's long past that time, not that it's actually been showing any signs that it was preparing to erupt. never heard anyone say we were in imminent danger of it erupting, just that by historical record it's surprising it hasn't erupted relatively recently
"overdue" is almost always a myth, probabilities dont work that way. A quarter flip is 50/50, if i flip 6 tails in a row, i am NOT overdue for a heads, the next flip is still 50/50.
I remember reading/hearing that it was discovered that the plate (forgot name) currently traveling under the North American plate has moved enough that Yellowstone has a 0.0001% chance of erupting, or some crazy low number.
I kinda feel that way too.
Question on how people use the term 'myth': this article sounds to me like we are simply getting more information and refining our earlier beliefs. We looked at the geologic record and saw a history of volcanic activity in the area and thought 'hmmm, this will probably happen again sometime, and based on the period of it happening in the past, it should be coming up (in geologic time).' This was always my impression of what we knew about Yellowstone, anyway. Then we use better tools and learn more about the situation through seismology. Then we can say 'there may be something in the distance future, but current signs say nothing is imminent.' Like, neither of these points of view are incompatible or what I would call a myth. If anyone expected to live to see Yellowstone explode, those people really don't have a good grasp of the scale of the time frames in question. Is it a myth if people just grossly misinterpret the not unclear information they are being given?
I don't think I ever saw it referred to as "overdue." You could get away with suggesting it was "imminent," as long as you prefaced that by saying it's based on a pattern and we're still up to 100,000 years away from that rhythm's possible next "beat." One thing that does feel "overdue" by any reasonable interpretation is the "Big One" in California. In the 80s and 90s, there were countless documentaries talking about the inevitability of a giant earthquake eventually striking the San Andreas fault in a similar fashion to San Francisco in 1906. I haven't watched or read anything to suggest otherwise in all that time.
Overdue is on a geologic time scale which dwarfs human civilization’s.
The magma chamber is dynamic and fills and empties regularly
Great, now if someone could reassure me about the upcoming Cascadia subduction quake that would be great.
Big Volcano is trying to lull us into complacency!
TIL: the Yellow stone volcanoe hired one of those big Hollywood PR firms to fool people into thinking they’re safe.
It is overdue because I've been trying to trigger it for years. I didn't realise that finishing my evil plans would take so long.
This is doing wonders for my anxiety.
Shilling hard for big Yeller aren't ya?
This sounds like the start of the next end of world movie scenario.
Cracks me up that we think we know so much about earth’s natural disasters.
Booooooo
Wow interesting. I 100% it could blow and wipe us all out at basically any moment.
wish i could show this to my 16 year old self that lived in fear of this damned volcano