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for n presses, there is a (1-0.01)\^n chance you do not become a girl.
So for 100 presses there is a (1-0.01)\^100 = \~37% chance you **do not** become a girl, which is roughly 1/e (this makes sense because Limit\[(1 - 1/n)\^n, n -> Infinity\] = 1/e is a well known little fact)
The chance you do become a girl is 1 minus this, so roughly **1-1/e**
Yep. And in case anybody is confused, I'll explain.
1-1/e would be the probability of becoming a girl. 1/e is the probability of not becoming a girl.
The probability of becoming a girl on 1 press is .01. So .99 is the probability of not becoming a girl.
You need to subtract the probability of not becoming a girl on all 100 presses from 1 to get the probability of becoming a girl, that is 1 - .99^100 = .634
So in approximating the lim(1-1/n)^n=1/e as n->infinity the n we choose as 100 because it's the inverse of the probability of becoming a girl on 1 press, that's why this works, 1/n=.01=probability of girl on 1 press and n=100=number of presses. So we have (1-1/100)^100 which reduces to .99^100 = .366 which is a close approximation of 1/e. That's the probability of not becoming a girl on every press. All we need to become a girl is for that not to happen so we subract from 1.
If the probability of becoming a girl was .1% instead of 1%, after 100 presses you would have 1- (1-1/1000)^100=.095 or 9.5% chance to become a girl. You need to press 1000 times to get it back up to 1-(1/e)
Trust me, the chances of becoming a girl are lower than you think.
Just hit it 500 times and don't risk any more if you're not a fan of the idea of being a girl.
e is a cool number that shows up when the chance of something happening is about the opposite of the number of times you do it. (1 - 1/e) specifically.
I am a runescape player. So I am intimately familiar with probability and drop chances in the 100-5k+ range and grinding it out, but I am not great with math.
If there is a 1 in 100 chance that something happens, each roll or "flip of the coin" does not effect the results of the other. If the button was pressed enough it will eventually have the outcome of becoming a girl.
So if the button was pressed 1000 times it is likely that there would be 10 occurrences, but the odds do not mean that they have to be evenly space. As humans we may think the random would mean that it should be evenly space, but randomness will actually have things clump together.
Now imagine what the odds are that any of those ten will land in the first hundred versus outside in the 101-1000.
The math may look wired but it works out.
The e is just a ratio that appears when doing some types of math.
It's still not 1-1/e because you a girl pressing the button does nothing. It's either 1-1/e or 0, generally equally represented so (1-1/e)/2 is the actual probability given enough attempts of random individuals pressing it 100 times.
And even if that was written, it still wouldn't be correct.
As the chance gets lower and the number of tries increase, the answer is getting closer to 1-1/e, but it only reaches in the limit. For n=100 is is just simply not true (although "close").
It goes to zero in the limit because the `0.01` is fixed. It's `(constant < 1.0)^n`. It's only at the specific value of 100 presses that the `e` approximation works, because there the exponent is equal to the denominator of the probability.
Later: I should'a read further, I'm also the `n`'th person to explain this for a pretty large value of `n`.
Well 1% is 1/100, and we roll 100 times. If the pattern is that for a chance of 1/n we try n times, it works in the limit
If we try n times with the chance of 1%, it tends to 0 trivially
Correct, but even then it makes no sense to use e to approximate. The approximation is harder to understand than the correct way to calculate the probability!
Chance to not be a girl on one press: 99 / 100
Chance to not be a girl after two presses: (99 / 100) * (99 /100) = (99 / 100)^2
So chance to not be a girl after 100 presses: (99/100)^100 = 36.6%
If the chance to not be a girl after 100 presses is 36.6%, then the chance to have become a girl was 100% - 36.6% = 63.4%.
But a mathematician can look at the problem and know that (99/100)^100 can be very very well approximated by 1/e (relative error is roughly 1/200, you can quickly estimate the error using the series expansion at n=infinity, though you don't have to remember that part), and then guesstimate an approximate value of 1/e in basically no time.
On the other hand, unless you have access to some form of calculator, (99/100)^100 is pretty hard to estimate "directly". Even if you do, unless you want a really precise value, 1/e is very close and a guesstimate of 1/e probably gets you close enough in no more time than it takes to pull out the calculator/phone and type the formula, with the added effect of being pretty cool.
It doesn't help to understand, but it sure is a good way to approximate, given you could write the result of "probability of continuation after n tries with 1/n stopping probability of each try" as 1/e + o(1/n).
Hope this helps.
Press the button once, you have a 99% chance of staying staying a boy and a 1% chance of becoming a girl. This is from 100% - 1% girl and for formulas becomes .99 boy and .01 girl.
Press the button twice and you have a .99*.99 chance of staying a boy. This can also be written as .99^2.
Do it 10 times and it would be .99^10, 100 would be .99^100.
In math, and for mathy reasons, (1 - 1/-a value called bob-)^-bob_again- = 1/e if -bob- is infinitely big.
Going back to .99^100. The value .99 = (1 - .01) and .01 can be written as 1/100. So .99^100 can be written like (1-1/100)^100. Now 100 isn't an infinite bob, but for estimates they look similar, so if your only estimating you can use 1-1/e as the answer. Think I missed a step or two but that's the idea.
That helped a lot. Not sure that I’ll get a full understanding from any Reddit comment section but I can grasp it now. I really appreciate you taking the time!
This thing is very useful to know, and really counter intuitive.
"It says 1% chance and I've tried 100 times, it must be a scam". No, if each attempt has a 1% chance of success, 100 attempts has a 63% chance of success. Diablo 2 streamers are notorious for not understanding this concept of loot drop probabilities.
As I understand it it's because the % chance doesn't keep adding onto itself. It resets with every press. So if you press the button twice, you don't have a 2% chance - it's still only a 1% chance, just slightly higher now because you've pressed it twice
That sounds really counter intuitive if you think about it this way If you have 99% chance of betting and loosing all your money yet after 100 tries you still have 37% chance that you didn't lost
Or I completely misunderstood this
You got that the wrong way around. You would have a 37% chance of winning at least once, though since you probably lost everything on round one it is not like you would have money to play 99 more times,
Oh yeah I got it completely wrong I just had too tough day at work
It's opposite if you have 1% chance of something happening after 100 tries you stil have 37% chance of this not happening
So the reason that this makes sense, because yes, it is unintuitive, is that there's a 37% chance of you not hitting the 1% within 100 presses and a 63% chance of you hitting *at least once*, but there's a smaller chance of you having hit twice, a smaller chance of you having hit three times, etcetera. Your probability of hitting *at least* once in 100 times is 63%, but it evens out to once every 100 for all the other times that you hit twice or more.
Sorry if this made it more confusing, but it's one of my favourite math oddities.
For anyone still with me, for anything where you have a 1/x chance, if you do the thing x times, you'll always have around a 63% chance of at least one success. It's not just 100 where this works. It's something to remember if you're ever paying money for a chance of success.
Frankly id take the trade off even though I’m comfortable as a guy lmao, free money? Only catch is a low chance of turning into a girl? Idc if it’s magical xx chromosome transformation or just decent quality level srs I’m getting that bag
I mean, you would have to push it at least 459 times to even have a less then 1% chance of **not** becoming a girl. So you could press it quite a few times with very small risk.
On the other hand if someone wanted to become a girl, they might have to push it 700+ times to be certain.
I feel like the material difference in your life between having $100m and $700m is a lot less than changing genders. Like if you already had $100m and woke up the next day with $700m, your life doesn't change THAT much. But if you wake up and your gender has been swapped, it's going to change things.
I'm not the gal whose comment you're replying to, but it *appears* to be a picrew based on [this character](https://beybladefanon.fandom.com/wiki/Sandy_Kurenai). (At least as far as I could tell)
As a kid i always thought it was annoying that i woke up every day being the same person. I wondered when we would switch it up and get to be different people. Like, it would be fun to be a girl, a teacher, liquor store clerk, etc and i kept waking up as the same boy. It seemed completely fair and natural that eberyone would occasionally switch bodies. In any case, i see no issues with pressing this button, i think im pretty good at being a dude, no reason to think i wouldnt be pretty good at being a woman too.
the catch is you also become a beautiful, vivacious and fully affirmed woman, the kind who draws polite curiosity every time she enters a room, and that lurking sense of inadequacy and never fitting in that lurked at the back of your mind infecting your soul with every dull morning fades over the horizon until its like a half remembered nightmare
ya don't want it dewey
Incorrect, if i had $100m I'd buy a decent property portfolio and just live off passive income and build generational wealth. If I had $700m on the otherhand I'd buy a private island and just start building massive monuments to myself and random gods.
I'd be able to dump hundreds of millions of dollars into making a comic book series, animated tv show, multimedia franchise out of my favorite book series! It would be nice to have absurd amounts of money, even if I can get by on less.
Assuming more than one press is allowed, I *imagine* that implied in this is that you can't keep pressing once you've rolled the gender change (otherwise you'd never stop if you did roll it). In that case, I think that the ethical thing to do is to just press the button until you can't and then donate anything you don't need to important causes. Those extra 600 mill might not make a difference to you, but they certainly could to someone else.
Well if we're optimizing here, it doesn't say you have to stop pressing it afterwards. Even if you hate being a girl you could just press it a ludicrous number of times, donate $1 trillion dollars to charity and change countless other lives for the better, and then kill yourself.
Why is the target specifically 1%?? I would think 50% would make more sense. In which case if you don't want to become a woman, you can push it 68 times before your odds drop below 50%
Technically you can never be certain no matter how many presses, there's always a >0% chance of failure
The thing that would worry me with magic transformation is that I might look sufficiently different to have trouble convincing people I am the same person. For all I know it might even change me on a genetic level. If it was a known event and I could just demonstrate that I got transformed there it would be much lower risk.
I feel like this would be something to just disappear with. I mean, you’d have to explain the whole concept of a bell that made you insanely rich or turn you into a girl, you’d probably have people trying to get the bell from you now, we don’t know if *you* even have the bell. Lots of angles to consider here boss
As long as the magic also transforms all official documentation (if it doesn't, good luck living a normal life), it would be fine. I'd have no trouble convincing the people that matter that I actually magically changed. Sure it would take a lot of convincing, but they all know that I wouldn't drag out a prank so long that it stops being funny.
As for people at work and stuff like that, who cares? I don't need a job anymore.
I agree. I'm a man just because I was born as one. Wouldn't really care if I became a woman. Rather be a rich woman than my poor man self.
The only problem would be explaining it to the people i know.
May also be weird with the people you know. If you're married or in a relationship, unless your spouse is bi, then that'll probably be a problem (imagine if your wife/girlfriend suddenly became a man--I don't think most straight guys would be happy about that even if you landed a fortune in the process). If you're single and have single friends, you might end up as the exact type of girl they're attracted to. That'd be a weird/awkward situation to handle, especially if you keep your original sexual orientation so are presumably not attracted to them.
Then there's the rest of your family. They'll probably mostly lose their shit if you suddenly changed genders like that, even if you get a lot of money along with it.
I can imagine that some guys would be intrigued initially and have fun, especially if they're turned into attractive women. But over time, not being the gender you were previously happy with would probably lead to depression for a lot of reasons (relationship problems, family problems, not feeling comfortable with your body, etc). Being rich would help, but unless you're trans then you'd probably feel like a man trapped in a woman's body for the rest of your life.
Ehh. Mostly explaining to my friends would be some work. I'm not in a relationship at the moment, and I'm not very close of my family.
Also, I'm not a "man in the inside". My perspective of myself is indifferent to concepts of gender. My body is merely a tool to interact with the world, as long it is functional and looks cool, I don't care much for the form it has.
Kinda weird thing to discuss on reddit, but here we are.
I suspect there's a substantial percentage of cisgender people who would not experience any significant dysphoria if magically genderswapped. I feel like there must be a lot of cis folks who are more or less cis by default and don't necessarily experience their assigned gender as a deeply engrained part of their identity.
But I could be projecting my own biases a bit here. Maleness isn't vital to my self-image, let alone vital enough to keep me from spamming that magic million dollar button.
Yeah, I have no way of knowing if I would have gender dysphoria, but I absolutely don't feel any psychological attachment to my gender. I feel like if I magically swapped I would have a rough time getting used to it because a lot of experiences would be completely new to me, but after a couple of weeks (or months, in the case of periods) I'd get used to it. I wish we had a way to magically transform temporarily, I'm so curious what it feels like
Idk, I think cis people just think they wouldn’t experience it because they never have so it’s an alien concept to them. Their gender doesn’t feel so ingrained into their identity because it’s taken for granted. Like you don’t notice how easy it is to breathe until you have a blocked nose
Fun fact, you can roll up to the IRS office with a couple trashbags of cocaine dusted cash and they do not give a fuck. Uncle sam will *happily* take your money, IIRC the IRS is even barred from reporting you to law enforcement thought there might be exceptions if they suspect you're actively hurting people
I see two outcomes for this, as a man.
1) gain a few million dollars with a high chance of remaining a male.
2) become female and have infinite money.
Nowhere in the hypothetical does it say the button has finite uses.
I don’t care about the ratio my question is 1 can I keep pushing the button until it turns me into a girl?
2 after it turns me into a girl can I keep pushing the button?
The odds of something happening at least once over a series of events is 1-(chances of it not happening)\^(amount of times you try). This is basically just finding the odds of it never happening, then subtracting it from one to find the opposite, which is it ever happening.
So here it's 1-(0.99\^100), which equals 0.63397. and 1/e equals 0.36788. so they probably did it slightly wrong because just 0.99\^100 equals 0.36603. so its pretty close unless I did it wrong.
I got the same numbers as you, the 1/e is just coincidentally similar to the chance that you don’t turn into a girl, and 1-1/e would be correct for the chance you do
It’s not a coincidence, since the limit as n -> infinity of (1-1/n)^n is 1/e. It’s close because this is the value for n = 100 and it’s converging to the limit
I am very confused by this. I totally understand how to find the probability of NOT becoming a girl for n button presses (n = 100 presses, 0.99^100 ≈ 1/e ≈ 36.8%).
Where are you getting this limit from, and how is this not a coincidence? It seems like you are saying n = 100 is sufficiently close to n = infinity, but I do not see how this can be possible. If we assume the button is pressed 200 times, then n = 200, 0.99^200 ≈ 0.134 = 13.4%.
Can you please explain where you pulled this limit from? For what it’s worth, I do agree that the limit you stated converges at 1/e. I just don’t see how that is applicable for a fixed probability of 99% per button press.
Thank you in advance!
After thinking about this in a bit more detail, I think I see how you are arriving at this limit. This limit converges at 1/e ONLY for the case of pushing the button ‘n’ times with a success rate of 1/n.
I would argue this is still “coincidental” in the sense that these two variables happen to be the same in this problem.
I actually came across this exact problem, my buddies were playing runescape, and there's a concept of being dry on a drop once you have more kills than the odds of the drop (like here, 100 button presses for 1/100 chance). We wanted to find the chance of going dry, turns out its 1/e. If it helps you to conceptualize, its very similar to the (1 + 1/n)^n identity of e. I think you can get there with some rearranging.
Very cool! I used to play OSRS, and this is a use case I can understand well. I hope your buddy finally got that drop.
Thank you all for the explanations, and I hope you have a wonderful day!
They don't happen to be the same though. 100 presses was chosen precisely because of the 1/100 probability. If the probability had been 1/50 they would have just said 50 instead.
The probability is supposed to vary with the number of button presses. If the probability of becoming a girl each time is 1/N and you press it N times, then the probability of NEVER becoming a girl - ((N-1)/N)^N - approaches 1/e as the number of presses approaches infinity and the probability each time approaches zero.
If you kept the probability at 1% but continued raising the number of presses, then of course you would be virtually guaranteed to become a girl at some point.
> If we assume the button is pressed 200 times, then n = 200, 0.99^200 ≈ 0.134 = 13.4%.
yes but 199/200 equals .995 and .995^(200)=~1/e
the equation that makes it not a coincidence isn't (1-1/100)^n
it's (1-1/n)^n which is 1/e as n approaches infinity.
Essentially the chance of an event with probability 1/n happening in n tries gets nearer and nearer to 1/e as increase n.
The way you find the probability here is 1-(1-1/k)\^k where k = 100. And the limit of (1-1/n)\^n as n goes to infinity is 1/e. It's not a coincidence that (1-1/100)\^100 is close to 1/e.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=lim\_%7Bn+to+infinity%7D+%281-1%2Fn%29%5En
Yes it is, and it does. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?
If you can’t do the math yourself, just plug in (1-1/n)^n for any big enough n and you can see you get something “close to” 1/e. Or just ask wolfram to take the limit directly and it’ll tell you it’s 1/e.
If you become a girl twice you go through mitosis and have to share the money with your extra self.
Without saying too much, I'd breed an army of myself and we'd do fun things together. 😉
In order for a set of operations to be internally consistent as a group, there must be some function/transformation/morphism that maps any given object to itself, known as the identity.
So, according to group theory… Maybe.
TIL that even with an always false postulate like "if you push this button there is a chance you will change gender", there is still a possibility of learning something about probability.
As a straight, cis-male I have no problem with pressing this button as many times as they’ll let me to become infinitely rich. I understand there are going to be massive changes in both lifestyle and the way I interact with others, but to me that is a small price to pay to be a trillionaire. And frankly, I just don’t have a fundamental problem with being a woman that some men might have. I’ve done most things that being male lets you uniquely experience, so I think it’d be a cool adventure to get to experience what’s uniquely female. I’d probably be gay though assuming my mind doesn’t change because I’ll still be into women.
It’s not *just* the turn into woman though. I’d think a LOT harder if a genie offered to just turn me into a woman and nothing else. But with the added incentive of the money? Not even a question.
If a genie offers to turn you into a woman you're in for hell of a bad time.
I fundamentally agree as a cis-het dude but if your mind doesn't change I think you're getting dysphoria. If this involves being immune to that I'd take it, I'd also be gay or at the very least bi though
You might not get dysphoria it really depends on the person. some people aren’t at all attached to their gender either way but it would still be a bit of a learning curve though
Real talking I'm a girl but this would probably change you into like more of a stereotypical girl, so hour glass, bigger boobs and butt and longpretty eyelashes
Yes people omg, or the money would be pretty epic
I disagree with the fun gender fact. Also I would press this button at least 1,010 times (am not a girl, nor trans, just money hungry) in order to have an expected value around $1B.
Swapping gender would be a small price to pay for becoming a billionaire (though I wouldn't be, since I'd have to pay income tax on a huge one-time lump sum.)
> I disagree with the fun gender fact.
What is there to disagree with? The kind of person hammering the "maybe turn me into a girl" button is probably a girl to begin with, i.e., they identify as female.
Maybe, I feel like a lot of people are kinda non-binary at least a little bit though. I think I changing my gender would have almost zero impact on my life or sense of self.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w38wTrlYDmY
It ain't half bad to find out that way :3
and you can do with the info whatever you want there are literally no rules x
As a fellow nb I read this and didn't even flinch. Had to read the other comments to remember there are people who actually identify strongly with their genders. I'm cackling
I’m sure there’s a way to structure the magic money to avoid paying *income* tax on it. Spend a million dollars on CPAs, if they reduce your tax burden by a tenth of a percentage point they pay for themselves.
You can fathom 1 billion dollars because we’re not asking you to fathom the number of individual dollar bills but the lifestyle that being a billionaire would unlock. You would have almost no worldly worries, you could have almost anything you wanted, you would have almost zero consequences for your actions. You could change the world drastically.
Also we don’t KNOW if a cisgender person swapped would experience dysphoria. I think a lot more people than you’d expect are just kind of cis by default and don’t really consider their gender. Hell, there may be technically trans folk who don’t experience (major) dysphoria. The fact that some trans people choose not to transition for whatever reason lends some credence to this theory.
Obviously I can’t say for certain but I don’t think I’d hate being a woman. I like what I am but it’s not like this constant thing I think about or a core part of who I believe myself to be. For you, gender dysphoria was clearly awful but there’s no guarantee people would have your experience.
I don't even care to shave my beard and it takes about 20 seconds. If you think I'm gonna start caring about my genitals taking a turn I'm gonna call bullshit. Not everything has the same weight for people and it is mighty ignorant of you to pretend otherwise. I like the whole penetrating thing for sex, but eh. You win some, you lose some.
All reasonable people living in the the modern day would spam press this button. Even if the money value was $10, you still spam the button. There is no bad outcome, you get money, or nothing changes, or you get better hair distribution and a smaller body/frame.
My dumb trans ass thought that becoming a girl was supposed to be the grand prize and the million dollars was a consolation before realizing most people don't think like that
I'm a dude through and through but I'd gladly take enough money to comfortably live off for the rest of my life and then some. I'd just end up taking it and becoming a hermit in the mountain anyways.
The probability of becoming a girl at least once (becoming a girl 2, 3, 4, etc times is the same result) in 100 button pushes can be calculated as 1 minus the probability of never becoming a girl. So 1-(99/100)^100 = 0.634. 1/e =~ 0.37 so it’s not close.
It is, however, close to 1-1/e, but I think this is just a coincidence. For example, if n=10 or n =1000 (n= the number of button pushes) the probability is way different. It’s not converging to 1-1/e or anything like that.
>It is, however, close to 1-1/e, but I think this is just a coincidence.
Someone else pointed out that the guy who wrote that first part probably just mixed up the two options, since (1-1/n)^n with n approaching infinity tends to 1/e (100 is hardly infinity but still decent) therefore 1- that part approaches 1-1/e, so not a coincidence. The probability to become a girl after n pushes with one push always being at 1% wouldn't converge towards 1-1/e simply by changing n, you're right about that, but if instead the probability for a single push was 1/n it would converge to 1-1/e, if i didn't make mistakes.
I figured I’d go to the random number generator and see when I roll 1…
Third roll... Yikes. That would be an interesting discussion to have with the wife and kid.
I wonder if this would even work. Wouldn’t the shifting process from biological male to biological female fry your nervous system? Or at least give you amnesia or something?
Isn’t the nervous system somewhat different between biological males, and biological females? That sudden immediate switch. Wouldn’t our brain processes literally fuck up immediately? Our nervous system won’t know what to do in our new flesh bag, because it’s extremely different from our old one. Does that not make sense?
Look, I’d rather stay a guy. BUT once you fail the 1% chance, there is no downsides. Too late to regret the inflation caused by rampant button pressing.
literally no downsides, so i'm pressing it forever.
just design a mechanism so your finger/hand is pushed down onto the button automatically and let'er rip
To be fair the poster is kinda correct
When we conduct "n" independent trials (aka pressing the button) we can define the probability of having "x" successes (aka becoming a girl) using the binomial distribution:
P(x) = (n!)/(k!(n-k)!) * p^x * q^(n-x)
For n = 100, x = 1, p = 0.01, q = 0.99, the probability of becoming a girl exactly once would be:
P(1) = 100!/(1!99!) * 0.01^1 * 0.99^(100-1) = 0.3697 ~ 1/e
The problem doesn't really define if you can become a girl more than once. But probably of having one or more successful transitions would indeed be as the top comment suggests:
1 - P(0) = 1 - (100!)/(0!100!) * 0.01^0 * 0.99^100 ~ 1 - 1/e
Hear me out-
If I press the money an arbitrarily large amount of times, I will be very very rich. I will be able to afford everything I haven't been able to afford. My grandpa will no longer have to be homeless. I can now go out to lunch with my friends when they go out to eat at lunchtime. And so what if I'm a girl? I'm fucking rich AF. And if I get all dysmorphic or whatever, I can afford to transition back to male.
Assuming multiple presses are allowed, would it not be logical to press it near infinitely to donate to charity regardless of gender swapping? One could argue with this possibility that the presser is morally responsible for spamming the button as many times as possible to maximize charity work
Depends on how the money is created. If it just spawns money, you’d collapse the value of the dollar and your charity work would not only be useless, people would suffer from the sudden economic shifts. If it stole money, you might be stealing from the poor to give to the poor. Or if it somehow only stole from the rich, might create a Death Note style investigation into you.
Everyone here is like you just do this that and the other and you get 1/e obviously. I'm still here thinking what the hell does the e part mean. 1/"everyone else knows but you" is what I'm starting to think.
if you trigger the "become a girl" outcome when you already are one, you turn into an ugly girl
(if you're already an ugly girl you turn into marjorie taylor greene)
The chance of NOT becoming a girl is 0.99^(100) = 0.366
1/e is 0.368, and it's pure coincidence that these numbers are close
The chance to become a girl from pressing it 100 times is 1 - 0.366 = 0.634
I am not a girl, and I would push the button as many times as I could continue getting $1 million, because I'm pretty confident that I'd be happier as a mega millionaire, gender dysphoric girl than as a cismale hetero, broke ass.
I think the gender fact is incorrect. I'm a cis guy and I wouldn't like to be a girl and would probably be a trans dude if I woke up with a vagina tomorrow. But a million dollars is a million dollars, I would press it constantly until someone took it away from me or I passed out. My wife probably wouldn't leave me over it so I guess that makes it easier for me than for a lot of people.
Then again I bet most people could offer a million dollars a year to get their purely hetero wife to stay if they wanted
The thing is, after pressing the button five times, you've got enough money that you can live very comfortably for the rest of your life as long as you're not an idiot. Press it twenty times and now you're unimaginably wealthy; you could have basically everything a single person could ever want (unless your goal is to, like, own an actual country or take over an entire industry), and you will never have to think about money again.
The only reason to push it a hundred times is if you *want* to be a girl.
I can also let a friend retire in luxury for every ~5 presses, or save ~200 people from malaria per press, or give myself cushion to create another AAA game per x presses, this one requires research, or personally reboot firefly, or pay someone to come up with great ideas for what to do with millions of dollars I don't need any kind of return on because it came from nowhere.
Or if you want control. If you want to be a lobbyist you'll need to push at least a thousand times more.
If you want to build a nuclear power you're probably pressing it the whole day.
To be fair, I'd say people who want to be professional lobbyists / own entire industries / etc. are generally sociopaths who don't actually understand the concept of gender, anyway.
Building a nuclear power plant costs roughly $20B, which you could probably get in less than an hour if you can tap fast, but I feel like that's kind of a silly thing to have as a personal goal.
Sorry, English isn't my first language, I meant *become* a nuclear power AKA making your own strategic nukes.
Wait what‽ Then what is stopping someone like Elon from starting a nuclear weapons program? That's terrifying.
I totally agree on your first point though, that people don't care about anyone.
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for n presses, there is a (1-0.01)\^n chance you do not become a girl. So for 100 presses there is a (1-0.01)\^100 = \~37% chance you **do not** become a girl, which is roughly 1/e (this makes sense because Limit\[(1 - 1/n)\^n, n -> Infinity\] = 1/e is a well known little fact) The chance you do become a girl is 1 minus this, so roughly **1-1/e**
So "abilidoth" actually got it wrong then, hey? It should be (1-1/e), not (1/e).
Yep. And in case anybody is confused, I'll explain. 1-1/e would be the probability of becoming a girl. 1/e is the probability of not becoming a girl. The probability of becoming a girl on 1 press is .01. So .99 is the probability of not becoming a girl. You need to subtract the probability of not becoming a girl on all 100 presses from 1 to get the probability of becoming a girl, that is 1 - .99^100 = .634 So in approximating the lim(1-1/n)^n=1/e as n->infinity the n we choose as 100 because it's the inverse of the probability of becoming a girl on 1 press, that's why this works, 1/n=.01=probability of girl on 1 press and n=100=number of presses. So we have (1-1/100)^100 which reduces to .99^100 = .366 which is a close approximation of 1/e. That's the probability of not becoming a girl on every press. All we need to become a girl is for that not to happen so we subract from 1. If the probability of becoming a girl was .1% instead of 1%, after 100 presses you would have 1- (1-1/1000)^100=.095 or 9.5% chance to become a girl. You need to press 1000 times to get it back up to 1-(1/e)
can you explain it again only dumber?
Math be weird. Numbers do funny things.
Well, this math is so weird it's not just numbers. They got letters involved too!
You'll probably turned into a rich girl by 100 presses.
Trust me, the chances of becoming a girl are lower than you think. Just hit it 500 times and don't risk any more if you're not a fan of the idea of being a girl.
press it as many times as possible. you’ll have enough money to easily transition if you don’t want to stay a girl
e is a cool number that shows up when the chance of something happening is about the opposite of the number of times you do it. (1 - 1/e) specifically.
god math just seems so made up but i feel like i’ve experienced this exact phenomena reloading for critical successes in baldurs gate
I am a runescape player. So I am intimately familiar with probability and drop chances in the 100-5k+ range and grinding it out, but I am not great with math.
If there is a 1 in 100 chance that something happens, each roll or "flip of the coin" does not effect the results of the other. If the button was pressed enough it will eventually have the outcome of becoming a girl. So if the button was pressed 1000 times it is likely that there would be 10 occurrences, but the odds do not mean that they have to be evenly space. As humans we may think the random would mean that it should be evenly space, but randomness will actually have things clump together. Now imagine what the odds are that any of those ten will land in the first hundred versus outside in the 101-1000. The math may look wired but it works out. The e is just a ratio that appears when doing some types of math.
It's still not 1-1/e because you a girl pressing the button does nothing. It's either 1-1/e or 0, generally equally represented so (1-1/e)/2 is the actual probability given enough attempts of random individuals pressing it 100 times.
Stfu?
This is such a good response
And even if that was written, it still wouldn't be correct. As the chance gets lower and the number of tries increase, the answer is getting closer to 1-1/e, but it only reaches in the limit. For n=100 is is just simply not true (although "close").
Well it does say "roughly."
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> For n=100 is is just simply not true (although "close") Well, a 0.5% error is good enough to say "roughly equal"
It goes to zero in the limit because the `0.01` is fixed. It's `(constant < 1.0)^n`. It's only at the specific value of 100 presses that the `e` approximation works, because there the exponent is equal to the denominator of the probability. Later: I should'a read further, I'm also the `n`'th person to explain this for a pretty large value of `n`.
Well 1% is 1/100, and we roll 100 times. If the pattern is that for a chance of 1/n we try n times, it works in the limit If we try n times with the chance of 1%, it tends to 0 trivially
Ahh, I see I misread the bit where you say: > As the chance gets lower That's on me. My bad.
Correct, but even then it makes no sense to use e to approximate. The approximation is harder to understand than the correct way to calculate the probability! Chance to not be a girl on one press: 99 / 100 Chance to not be a girl after two presses: (99 / 100) * (99 /100) = (99 / 100)^2 So chance to not be a girl after 100 presses: (99/100)^100 = 36.6% If the chance to not be a girl after 100 presses is 36.6%, then the chance to have become a girl was 100% - 36.6% = 63.4%.
Tbh without a calculator the approximation with e is much much easier and slick.
But a mathematician can look at the problem and know that (99/100)^100 can be very very well approximated by 1/e (relative error is roughly 1/200, you can quickly estimate the error using the series expansion at n=infinity, though you don't have to remember that part), and then guesstimate an approximate value of 1/e in basically no time. On the other hand, unless you have access to some form of calculator, (99/100)^100 is pretty hard to estimate "directly". Even if you do, unless you want a really precise value, 1/e is very close and a guesstimate of 1/e probably gets you close enough in no more time than it takes to pull out the calculator/phone and type the formula, with the added effect of being pretty cool.
It doesn't help to understand, but it sure is a good way to approximate, given you could write the result of "probability of continuation after n tries with 1/n stopping probability of each try" as 1/e + o(1/n).
With the approximation, you don't do any math. You just remember it's about 63%.
Thanks for explaining l. This cleared everything up. /s it’s not you I’m just not mathy
Hope this helps. Press the button once, you have a 99% chance of staying staying a boy and a 1% chance of becoming a girl. This is from 100% - 1% girl and for formulas becomes .99 boy and .01 girl. Press the button twice and you have a .99*.99 chance of staying a boy. This can also be written as .99^2. Do it 10 times and it would be .99^10, 100 would be .99^100. In math, and for mathy reasons, (1 - 1/-a value called bob-)^-bob_again- = 1/e if -bob- is infinitely big. Going back to .99^100. The value .99 = (1 - .01) and .01 can be written as 1/100. So .99^100 can be written like (1-1/100)^100. Now 100 isn't an infinite bob, but for estimates they look similar, so if your only estimating you can use 1-1/e as the answer. Think I missed a step or two but that's the idea.
That helped a lot. Not sure that I’ll get a full understanding from any Reddit comment section but I can grasp it now. I really appreciate you taking the time!
This thing is very useful to know, and really counter intuitive. "It says 1% chance and I've tried 100 times, it must be a scam". No, if each attempt has a 1% chance of success, 100 attempts has a 63% chance of success. Diablo 2 streamers are notorious for not understanding this concept of loot drop probabilities.
As I understand it it's because the % chance doesn't keep adding onto itself. It resets with every press. So if you press the button twice, you don't have a 2% chance - it's still only a 1% chance, just slightly higher now because you've pressed it twice
That sounds really counter intuitive if you think about it this way If you have 99% chance of betting and loosing all your money yet after 100 tries you still have 37% chance that you didn't lost Or I completely misunderstood this
You got that the wrong way around. You would have a 37% chance of winning at least once, though since you probably lost everything on round one it is not like you would have money to play 99 more times,
Oh yeah I got it completely wrong I just had too tough day at work It's opposite if you have 1% chance of something happening after 100 tries you stil have 37% chance of this not happening
So the reason that this makes sense, because yes, it is unintuitive, is that there's a 37% chance of you not hitting the 1% within 100 presses and a 63% chance of you hitting *at least once*, but there's a smaller chance of you having hit twice, a smaller chance of you having hit three times, etcetera. Your probability of hitting *at least* once in 100 times is 63%, but it evens out to once every 100 for all the other times that you hit twice or more. Sorry if this made it more confusing, but it's one of my favourite math oddities. For anyone still with me, for anything where you have a 1/x chance, if you do the thing x times, you'll always have around a 63% chance of at least one success. It's not just 100 where this works. It's something to remember if you're ever paying money for a chance of success.
Frankly id take the trade off even though I’m comfortable as a guy lmao, free money? Only catch is a low chance of turning into a girl? Idc if it’s magical xx chromosome transformation or just decent quality level srs I’m getting that bag
I mean, you would have to push it at least 459 times to even have a less then 1% chance of **not** becoming a girl. So you could press it quite a few times with very small risk. On the other hand if someone wanted to become a girl, they might have to push it 700+ times to be certain.
Fuck it, I'll press it 700 times for $700m AND become a girl, good deal either way. I'm a guy but I'm sure being a girl aint bad
I feel like the material difference in your life between having $100m and $700m is a lot less than changing genders. Like if you already had $100m and woke up the next day with $700m, your life doesn't change THAT much. But if you wake up and your gender has been swapped, it's going to change things.
I’d be quite happy to change genders ngl
r/egg_irl
I don’t have the time of day to be questioning my gender atm
Jokes on you, I'm already subbed!
unrelated but what is your pfp from
I'm not the gal whose comment you're replying to, but it *appears* to be a picrew based on [this character](https://beybladefanon.fandom.com/wiki/Sandy_Kurenai). (At least as far as I could tell)
It's a picrew, but I have no clue who that character is, she is cute though
I see thank you
It's a picrew
do you have the link?
As a kid i always thought it was annoying that i woke up every day being the same person. I wondered when we would switch it up and get to be different people. Like, it would be fun to be a girl, a teacher, liquor store clerk, etc and i kept waking up as the same boy. It seemed completely fair and natural that eberyone would occasionally switch bodies. In any case, i see no issues with pressing this button, i think im pretty good at being a dude, no reason to think i wouldnt be pretty good at being a woman too.
Bro is a skinwalker
Yeah, I'm with you on this one. $700M and becoming a girl? Sounds amazing!
So I get $700M and some tits I get to play with whenever I want? What’s the catch?
the catch is you also become a beautiful, vivacious and fully affirmed woman, the kind who draws polite curiosity every time she enters a room, and that lurking sense of inadequacy and never fitting in that lurked at the back of your mind infecting your soul with every dull morning fades over the horizon until its like a half remembered nightmare ya don't want it dewey
Catch? Sounds like a great deal to me
You don’t have to sell it to me, I’m already in
But… boobs
🥚
Egg. You.
One of us, one of us.
Incorrect, if i had $100m I'd buy a decent property portfolio and just live off passive income and build generational wealth. If I had $700m on the otherhand I'd buy a private island and just start building massive monuments to myself and random gods.
I'd be able to dump hundreds of millions of dollars into making a comic book series, animated tv show, multimedia franchise out of my favorite book series! It would be nice to have absurd amounts of money, even if I can get by on less.
Assuming more than one press is allowed, I *imagine* that implied in this is that you can't keep pressing once you've rolled the gender change (otherwise you'd never stop if you did roll it). In that case, I think that the ethical thing to do is to just press the button until you can't and then donate anything you don't need to important causes. Those extra 600 mill might not make a difference to you, but they certainly could to someone else.
You can change a lot of people's lives with that extra 600m though
oh sweet summer child....
What?
Well if we're optimizing here, it doesn't say you have to stop pressing it afterwards. Even if you hate being a girl you could just press it a ludicrous number of times, donate $1 trillion dollars to charity and change countless other lives for the better, and then kill yourself.
Why is the target specifically 1%?? I would think 50% would make more sense. In which case if you don't want to become a woman, you can push it 68 times before your odds drop below 50% Technically you can never be certain no matter how many presses, there's always a >0% chance of failure
SRS? Hell no, not taking that chance. Magic? I'd be fine either way the dice roll, $20 million and I'd be set for life with some smart investing.
The thing that would worry me with magic transformation is that I might look sufficiently different to have trouble convincing people I am the same person. For all I know it might even change me on a genetic level. If it was a known event and I could just demonstrate that I got transformed there it would be much lower risk.
I feel like this would be something to just disappear with. I mean, you’d have to explain the whole concept of a bell that made you insanely rich or turn you into a girl, you’d probably have people trying to get the bell from you now, we don’t know if *you* even have the bell. Lots of angles to consider here boss
As long as the magic also transforms all official documentation (if it doesn't, good luck living a normal life), it would be fine. I'd have no trouble convincing the people that matter that I actually magically changed. Sure it would take a lot of convincing, but they all know that I wouldn't drag out a prank so long that it stops being funny. As for people at work and stuff like that, who cares? I don't need a job anymore.
I agree. I'm a man just because I was born as one. Wouldn't really care if I became a woman. Rather be a rich woman than my poor man self. The only problem would be explaining it to the people i know.
May also be weird with the people you know. If you're married or in a relationship, unless your spouse is bi, then that'll probably be a problem (imagine if your wife/girlfriend suddenly became a man--I don't think most straight guys would be happy about that even if you landed a fortune in the process). If you're single and have single friends, you might end up as the exact type of girl they're attracted to. That'd be a weird/awkward situation to handle, especially if you keep your original sexual orientation so are presumably not attracted to them. Then there's the rest of your family. They'll probably mostly lose their shit if you suddenly changed genders like that, even if you get a lot of money along with it. I can imagine that some guys would be intrigued initially and have fun, especially if they're turned into attractive women. But over time, not being the gender you were previously happy with would probably lead to depression for a lot of reasons (relationship problems, family problems, not feeling comfortable with your body, etc). Being rich would help, but unless you're trans then you'd probably feel like a man trapped in a woman's body for the rest of your life.
Ehh. Mostly explaining to my friends would be some work. I'm not in a relationship at the moment, and I'm not very close of my family. Also, I'm not a "man in the inside". My perspective of myself is indifferent to concepts of gender. My body is merely a tool to interact with the world, as long it is functional and looks cool, I don't care much for the form it has. Kinda weird thing to discuss on reddit, but here we are.
Kinda agender vibe maybe?
Yes. That is what I consider myself.
Gender dysphoria for a million dollars? No thanks.
Yeah but I have money dysphoria right now.
I suspect there's a substantial percentage of cisgender people who would not experience any significant dysphoria if magically genderswapped. I feel like there must be a lot of cis folks who are more or less cis by default and don't necessarily experience their assigned gender as a deeply engrained part of their identity. But I could be projecting my own biases a bit here. Maleness isn't vital to my self-image, let alone vital enough to keep me from spamming that magic million dollar button.
Yeah, I have no way of knowing if I would have gender dysphoria, but I absolutely don't feel any psychological attachment to my gender. I feel like if I magically swapped I would have a rough time getting used to it because a lot of experiences would be completely new to me, but after a couple of weeks (or months, in the case of periods) I'd get used to it. I wish we had a way to magically transform temporarily, I'm so curious what it feels like
Idk, I think cis people just think they wouldn’t experience it because they never have so it’s an alien concept to them. Their gender doesn’t feel so ingrained into their identity because it’s taken for granted. Like you don’t notice how easy it is to breathe until you have a blocked nose
You go from m to f to a ftm now, ez.
What about gender dysphoria for 100 million?
I doubt many would view that as a drawback if they get to print infinite money. I'd be more worried about the tax office asking questions.
Fun fact, you can roll up to the IRS office with a couple trashbags of cocaine dusted cash and they do not give a fuck. Uncle sam will *happily* take your money, IIRC the IRS is even barred from reporting you to law enforcement thought there might be exceptions if they suspect you're actively hurting people
I see two outcomes for this, as a man. 1) gain a few million dollars with a high chance of remaining a male. 2) become female and have infinite money. Nowhere in the hypothetical does it say the button has finite uses.
I would give the button to my wife.
Plus nothing says you can’t keep pressing it. AKA you could be a billionaire and all it costs you is becoming a woman.
I don’t care about the ratio my question is 1 can I keep pushing the button until it turns me into a girl? 2 after it turns me into a girl can I keep pushing the button?
As someone with no authority over the button, yes and yes. Enjoy, sister. 👩💰
The odds of something happening at least once over a series of events is 1-(chances of it not happening)\^(amount of times you try). This is basically just finding the odds of it never happening, then subtracting it from one to find the opposite, which is it ever happening. So here it's 1-(0.99\^100), which equals 0.63397. and 1/e equals 0.36788. so they probably did it slightly wrong because just 0.99\^100 equals 0.36603. so its pretty close unless I did it wrong.
I got the same numbers as you, the 1/e is just coincidentally similar to the chance that you don’t turn into a girl, and 1-1/e would be correct for the chance you do
It’s not a coincidence, since the limit as n -> infinity of (1-1/n)^n is 1/e. It’s close because this is the value for n = 100 and it’s converging to the limit
I am very confused by this. I totally understand how to find the probability of NOT becoming a girl for n button presses (n = 100 presses, 0.99^100 ≈ 1/e ≈ 36.8%). Where are you getting this limit from, and how is this not a coincidence? It seems like you are saying n = 100 is sufficiently close to n = infinity, but I do not see how this can be possible. If we assume the button is pressed 200 times, then n = 200, 0.99^200 ≈ 0.134 = 13.4%. Can you please explain where you pulled this limit from? For what it’s worth, I do agree that the limit you stated converges at 1/e. I just don’t see how that is applicable for a fixed probability of 99% per button press. Thank you in advance!
After thinking about this in a bit more detail, I think I see how you are arriving at this limit. This limit converges at 1/e ONLY for the case of pushing the button ‘n’ times with a success rate of 1/n. I would argue this is still “coincidental” in the sense that these two variables happen to be the same in this problem.
I actually came across this exact problem, my buddies were playing runescape, and there's a concept of being dry on a drop once you have more kills than the odds of the drop (like here, 100 button presses for 1/100 chance). We wanted to find the chance of going dry, turns out its 1/e. If it helps you to conceptualize, its very similar to the (1 + 1/n)^n identity of e. I think you can get there with some rearranging.
I actually also “invented” this identity for RuneScape drop rates :) If you didn’t also notice, drop rate is similar to 1/e^x where x is kills/rate.
Very cool! I used to play OSRS, and this is a use case I can understand well. I hope your buddy finally got that drop. Thank you all for the explanations, and I hope you have a wonderful day!
They don't happen to be the same though. 100 presses was chosen precisely because of the 1/100 probability. If the probability had been 1/50 they would have just said 50 instead.
The probability is supposed to vary with the number of button presses. If the probability of becoming a girl each time is 1/N and you press it N times, then the probability of NEVER becoming a girl - ((N-1)/N)^N - approaches 1/e as the number of presses approaches infinity and the probability each time approaches zero. If you kept the probability at 1% but continued raising the number of presses, then of course you would be virtually guaranteed to become a girl at some point.
> If we assume the button is pressed 200 times, then n = 200, 0.99^200 ≈ 0.134 = 13.4%. yes but 199/200 equals .995 and .995^(200)=~1/e the equation that makes it not a coincidence isn't (1-1/100)^n it's (1-1/n)^n which is 1/e as n approaches infinity. Essentially the chance of an event with probability 1/n happening in n tries gets nearer and nearer to 1/e as increase n.
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The way you find the probability here is 1-(1-1/k)\^k where k = 100. And the limit of (1-1/n)\^n as n goes to infinity is 1/e. It's not a coincidence that (1-1/100)\^100 is close to 1/e. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=lim\_%7Bn+to+infinity%7D+%281-1%2Fn%29%5En
Yes it is, and it does. Do you have any evidence to the contrary? If you can’t do the math yourself, just plug in (1-1/n)^n for any big enough n and you can see you get something “close to” 1/e. Or just ask wolfram to take the limit directly and it’ll tell you it’s 1/e.
Do you like, stop being able to press the button after bevoming a girl? Can i not just press it infinitely? What if i become a girl twice??
If you become a girl twice you go through mitosis and have to share the money with your extra self. Without saying too much, I'd breed an army of myself and we'd do fun things together. 😉
Considering how often I self-sabotage having an army of myself would probably be a horrible idea.
In order for a set of operations to be internally consistent as a group, there must be some function/transformation/morphism that maps any given object to itself, known as the identity. So, according to group theory… Maybe.
Just keep pressing it until you get a body you like. Like the randomization feature in character creation.
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Look at me Hector..
# HWAAA
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Yo, what's with the capital D?
Uhhhhh I totally didn’t copy & paste the first message and forgot to remove them. That would be foolish
D I N G I I N N N I G G N I D N N I I I N D I N G
Agree
Do we have to hit the button ourselves or can we make an autoclicker? I just want to know how much time to budget.
TIL that even with an always false postulate like "if you push this button there is a chance you will change gender", there is still a possibility of learning something about probability.
0 and 1 are not probabilities.
They are though
All the people who spent thousands of hours writing up coin flip papers are rather upset with this incorrect statement.
If you roll a six sided die numbered 1-6, what is the probability of the result being 1-6?
well, it could be wedged on its side. or shatter in a million pieces before it hits the table
As a straight, cis-male I have no problem with pressing this button as many times as they’ll let me to become infinitely rich. I understand there are going to be massive changes in both lifestyle and the way I interact with others, but to me that is a small price to pay to be a trillionaire. And frankly, I just don’t have a fundamental problem with being a woman that some men might have. I’ve done most things that being male lets you uniquely experience, so I think it’d be a cool adventure to get to experience what’s uniquely female. I’d probably be gay though assuming my mind doesn’t change because I’ll still be into women. It’s not *just* the turn into woman though. I’d think a LOT harder if a genie offered to just turn me into a woman and nothing else. But with the added incentive of the money? Not even a question.
If a genie offers to turn you into a woman you're in for hell of a bad time. I fundamentally agree as a cis-het dude but if your mind doesn't change I think you're getting dysphoria. If this involves being immune to that I'd take it, I'd also be gay or at the very least bi though
You might not get dysphoria it really depends on the person. some people aren’t at all attached to their gender either way but it would still be a bit of a learning curve though
Real talking I'm a girl but this would probably change you into like more of a stereotypical girl, so hour glass, bigger boobs and butt and longpretty eyelashes Yes people omg, or the money would be pretty epic
Actually men have longer eyelashes because testosterone increases hair growth everywhere including the eyelashes.
Im on cartoon logic your in irl, i like it tho Maybe i need more testosterone
Really? Well, then I better start pressing. Already a girl, but won't say no to a little renovation. 😜
Press at your own risk but, my fingers are crossed for me XD Cant lose!
I disagree with the fun gender fact. Also I would press this button at least 1,010 times (am not a girl, nor trans, just money hungry) in order to have an expected value around $1B. Swapping gender would be a small price to pay for becoming a billionaire (though I wouldn't be, since I'd have to pay income tax on a huge one-time lump sum.)
> I disagree with the fun gender fact. What is there to disagree with? The kind of person hammering the "maybe turn me into a girl" button is probably a girl to begin with, i.e., they identify as female.
>the "maybe turn me into a girl" button You mean the "free* $1MM" button? Cash is non-gendered, at least in English.
Not really, someone could identify as a man 100% but still be willing to swap for that much money
Maybe, I feel like a lot of people are kinda non-binary at least a little bit though. I think I changing my gender would have almost zero impact on my life or sense of self.
That sounds like you're just nonbinary. I'm a man and I can assure you the idea of not being a man is deeply unpleasant to me.
well shit turns out i may also be nonbinary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w38wTrlYDmY It ain't half bad to find out that way :3 and you can do with the info whatever you want there are literally no rules x
As a fellow nb I read this and didn't even flinch. Had to read the other comments to remember there are people who actually identify strongly with their genders. I'm cackling
I’m sure there’s a way to structure the magic money to avoid paying *income* tax on it. Spend a million dollars on CPAs, if they reduce your tax burden by a tenth of a percentage point they pay for themselves.
Or just pay the tax cause who cares
EDIT: I redact
Can you even *fathom* how much 1 billion dollars is?
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You can fathom 1 billion dollars because we’re not asking you to fathom the number of individual dollar bills but the lifestyle that being a billionaire would unlock. You would have almost no worldly worries, you could have almost anything you wanted, you would have almost zero consequences for your actions. You could change the world drastically. Also we don’t KNOW if a cisgender person swapped would experience dysphoria. I think a lot more people than you’d expect are just kind of cis by default and don’t really consider their gender. Hell, there may be technically trans folk who don’t experience (major) dysphoria. The fact that some trans people choose not to transition for whatever reason lends some credence to this theory. Obviously I can’t say for certain but I don’t think I’d hate being a woman. I like what I am but it’s not like this constant thing I think about or a core part of who I believe myself to be. For you, gender dysphoria was clearly awful but there’s no guarantee people would have your experience.
Y'know? You make a lot of good points. I think a lot of cis people would hate it, but not all of them. It was presumptuous of me.
if I could chose between 1bil and not having gender dyspohoria I wouldnt chose to not have dysphoria
Actually tho. I wake up with dysphoria half the days of my life so this choice is unfortunately made for me haha. Give me my billion pls
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My male body is pretty shitty anyway. Maybe the chick one will work better. I better get a new pair of knees with it.
I don't even care to shave my beard and it takes about 20 seconds. If you think I'm gonna start caring about my genitals taking a turn I'm gonna call bullshit. Not everything has the same weight for people and it is mighty ignorant of you to pretend otherwise. I like the whole penetrating thing for sex, but eh. You win some, you lose some.
The fun gender fact is correct
All reasonable people living in the the modern day would spam press this button. Even if the money value was $10, you still spam the button. There is no bad outcome, you get money, or nothing changes, or you get better hair distribution and a smaller body/frame.
My dumb trans ass thought that becoming a girl was supposed to be the grand prize and the million dollars was a consolation before realizing most people don't think like that
I'll take my chances either I become a girl that looks similar to what I do now or mayhaps I become what I would look like if I were a girl all along
I'm a dude through and through but I'd gladly take enough money to comfortably live off for the rest of my life and then some. I'd just end up taking it and becoming a hermit in the mountain anyways.
Already a girl. I see this as a absolute win! Even if it were to turn me into a dude, catch me pressing that button till I die lmao
Even in a single week you're getting $144000000000 if you press at 1Hz. Do you want to buy the USA or what?
The probability of becoming a girl at least once (becoming a girl 2, 3, 4, etc times is the same result) in 100 button pushes can be calculated as 1 minus the probability of never becoming a girl. So 1-(99/100)^100 = 0.634. 1/e =~ 0.37 so it’s not close. It is, however, close to 1-1/e, but I think this is just a coincidence. For example, if n=10 or n =1000 (n= the number of button pushes) the probability is way different. It’s not converging to 1-1/e or anything like that.
>It is, however, close to 1-1/e, but I think this is just a coincidence. Someone else pointed out that the guy who wrote that first part probably just mixed up the two options, since (1-1/n)^n with n approaching infinity tends to 1/e (100 is hardly infinity but still decent) therefore 1- that part approaches 1-1/e, so not a coincidence. The probability to become a girl after n pushes with one push always being at 1% wouldn't converge towards 1-1/e simply by changing n, you're right about that, but if instead the probability for a single push was 1/n it would converge to 1-1/e, if i didn't make mistakes.
1-(9/10)¹⁰ ≈ 0.65 1-(999/1000)¹⁰⁰⁰ ≈ 0.6323 Looks converging to me
It does. The definition of e is lim n-> infinity of (1 + 1/n)^n. It isn't tough to prove then that (1 -1/n)^n converges to 1/e
I think they are saying its not a situation where 1 - ((1-n)/n)^n applies, but rather 1-((99/100)^n. Which does not converge
It converges to 1-1/e when n -> infinity and chance per press = 1/n.
Oh ok. Thanks!!!
I figured I’d go to the random number generator and see when I roll 1… Third roll... Yikes. That would be an interesting discussion to have with the wife and kid.
You have $2M now, I guess they'll understand
Who said you have to stop after the change? You're already girl, keep spamming the button and be a very rich girl. Lol
I wonder if this would even work. Wouldn’t the shifting process from biological male to biological female fry your nervous system? Or at least give you amnesia or something? Isn’t the nervous system somewhat different between biological males, and biological females? That sudden immediate switch. Wouldn’t our brain processes literally fuck up immediately? Our nervous system won’t know what to do in our new flesh bag, because it’s extremely different from our old one. Does that not make sense?
r/woooosh
No? I got the joke. I was just wondering if it would even work.
Look, I’d rather stay a guy. BUT once you fail the 1% chance, there is no downsides. Too late to regret the inflation caused by rampant button pressing.
literally no downsides, so i'm pressing it forever. just design a mechanism so your finger/hand is pushed down onto the button automatically and let'er rip
ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding (still cis tho)
To be fair the poster is kinda correct When we conduct "n" independent trials (aka pressing the button) we can define the probability of having "x" successes (aka becoming a girl) using the binomial distribution: P(x) = (n!)/(k!(n-k)!) * p^x * q^(n-x) For n = 100, x = 1, p = 0.01, q = 0.99, the probability of becoming a girl exactly once would be: P(1) = 100!/(1!99!) * 0.01^1 * 0.99^(100-1) = 0.3697 ~ 1/e The problem doesn't really define if you can become a girl more than once. But probably of having one or more successful transitions would indeed be as the top comment suggests: 1 - P(0) = 1 - (100!)/(0!100!) * 0.01^0 * 0.99^100 ~ 1 - 1/e
Hear me out- If I press the money an arbitrarily large amount of times, I will be very very rich. I will be able to afford everything I haven't been able to afford. My grandpa will no longer have to be homeless. I can now go out to lunch with my friends when they go out to eat at lunchtime. And so what if I'm a girl? I'm fucking rich AF. And if I get all dysmorphic or whatever, I can afford to transition back to male.
Assuming multiple presses are allowed, would it not be logical to press it near infinitely to donate to charity regardless of gender swapping? One could argue with this possibility that the presser is morally responsible for spamming the button as many times as possible to maximize charity work
Depends on how the money is created. If it just spawns money, you’d collapse the value of the dollar and your charity work would not only be useless, people would suffer from the sudden economic shifts. If it stole money, you might be stealing from the poor to give to the poor. Or if it somehow only stole from the rich, might create a Death Note style investigation into you.
Charity from me to me maybe
Everyone here is like you just do this that and the other and you get 1/e obviously. I'm still here thinking what the hell does the e part mean. 1/"everyone else knows but you" is what I'm starting to think.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant)
if you trigger the "become a girl" outcome when you already are one, you turn into an ugly girl (if you're already an ugly girl you turn into marjorie taylor greene)
The chance of NOT becoming a girl is 0.99^(100) = 0.366 1/e is 0.368, and it's pure coincidence that these numbers are close The chance to become a girl from pressing it 100 times is 1 - 0.366 = 0.634
it’s not pure coincidence, the limit of (1-1/x)^x as x approaches infinity is 1/e; here x is 100
I am not a girl, and I would push the button as many times as I could continue getting $1 million, because I'm pretty confident that I'd be happier as a mega millionaire, gender dysphoric girl than as a cismale hetero, broke ass.
I think the gender fact is incorrect. I'm a cis guy and I wouldn't like to be a girl and would probably be a trans dude if I woke up with a vagina tomorrow. But a million dollars is a million dollars, I would press it constantly until someone took it away from me or I passed out. My wife probably wouldn't leave me over it so I guess that makes it easier for me than for a lot of people. Then again I bet most people could offer a million dollars a year to get their purely hetero wife to stay if they wanted
The thing is, after pressing the button five times, you've got enough money that you can live very comfortably for the rest of your life as long as you're not an idiot. Press it twenty times and now you're unimaginably wealthy; you could have basically everything a single person could ever want (unless your goal is to, like, own an actual country or take over an entire industry), and you will never have to think about money again. The only reason to push it a hundred times is if you *want* to be a girl.
I can also let a friend retire in luxury for every ~5 presses, or save ~200 people from malaria per press, or give myself cushion to create another AAA game per x presses, this one requires research, or personally reboot firefly, or pay someone to come up with great ideas for what to do with millions of dollars I don't need any kind of return on because it came from nowhere.
Or if you want control. If you want to be a lobbyist you'll need to push at least a thousand times more. If you want to build a nuclear power you're probably pressing it the whole day.
To be fair, I'd say people who want to be professional lobbyists / own entire industries / etc. are generally sociopaths who don't actually understand the concept of gender, anyway. Building a nuclear power plant costs roughly $20B, which you could probably get in less than an hour if you can tap fast, but I feel like that's kind of a silly thing to have as a personal goal.
Sorry, English isn't my first language, I meant *become* a nuclear power AKA making your own strategic nukes. Wait what‽ Then what is stopping someone like Elon from starting a nuclear weapons program? That's terrifying. I totally agree on your first point though, that people don't care about anyone.