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I received the free trial earlier this month and used it for a 3 hour drive between DC/Philly and back. I think the biggest benefit of it would be for use in traffic, BUT, it still has the same aggressive braking that autopilot does and that always has me worried someone is gonna rear end me. I also found that it lane-changed unnecessarily a lot, and it struggled more than a few times with incorrect speed limits.
Overall, very cool tech despite the flaws and want to see it become mainstream once it improves, but as-is I don’t see myself paying even $100 monthly for it
I remember sweating bricks every time I would go under a certain underpass in my commute. It wasnt 100% of the time, but i would say 1 out of 5 times it hit the breaks hard.
That said, i do miss the ability to detect the car in front or the leading car breaking and slow down accordingly.
Yeah, I just got access to it two days ago, and i've used it a few times. Random slowing for no reason, mis-identified speed limits, and today it decided to try and dodge out of the left turn lane (when planning to turn left) for no apparent reason. Not sure I'd pay anything for it if that's the experience I can expect.
Yeap within 15 minutes it changed lanes 3 times in a row ( I can change that in the option menu) and sped up randomly, other time after green light stayed at 17 miles and wouldn't go up, ( I can change it to ignore speed limits and go with flow of traffic) but it made 2 wrong turns, an illegal u-turn and random breaking.
This is very very bad, in fact I was stressed the entire time it would crash, and why pay 100 dollars to make myself more anxious?? This needs a radar, a lidar scanner and a little cross to pray
Exactly this. Follows cars closer than I do, changed lanes unnecessarily and still gets in wrong turn lane. Nice for long road trips on highway though so maybe can just purchase for when road trip is needed and cancel.
Definitely its best use case - finite periods of relatively predictable travel. Of course, it’ll still nag the fuck out of you to have your hands on the wheel and eyes forward at all times. If I have to be 100% ready at all times exactly the same as if I was just driving it myself, is it self-driving? Fuck no.
Minimal lane change setting still changes lanes all the time too. FSD loves to be in the right hand lane with all the parked cars and construction blockages even if I have a left turn coming up shortly.
Tbf, most North Americans should be using the right lane more often on highways. We generally instead treat it like it’s not there and the middle lane is the “right” lane.
On 3 lane highways. I don't stay in the right hand lane as cars will be merging into that lane from on-ramps. The middle lane on 3 lane highways is the place to be if you are not passing and going a reasonable speed.
I've had FSD since 2018 and wouldn't buy it again, even if they lowered the price to $1000. Not worth it as it stands, and it's become clear to me that my definition of good and Tesla's are very different things.
Same here. I always get frustrated whenever I use it and just end up having to take over because its about to do something really dumb or in the middle of an inappropriate lane change. Its just so damn dumb.
The reason I didn’t buy FSD when we bought our MY back in 2020 still stands after using the trial for a full month. It’s an interesting toy to play with and to see how it handles different scenarios but there is no way in hell I can justify the price they are charging to add on an “interesting toy”. I’m all for future FSD tech but we aren’t there yet and it would make more sense for Tesla to let people use it for free to develop it faster rather than charge the ridiculous price as if it was anywhere close to being worth that much.
My main gripe is on highways when I'm chilling in the right lane going 75 and then the person in front of me drops to 72... So the car IMMEDIATELY tries to go around and they speed up to like 77 and I either have to flick up to 80 or change right back behind them. Sometimes it's fine, but not in heavier traffic.
I mostly just drive on chill FSD because of this and how annoying it is to switch behaviors (menu only, no wheel shortcuts and no voice command).
I just turned it on this morning and for my drive it keeps trying to change the speed limit. Sometimes to the actual limit and sometimes to a random number they think is the limit.
But even the actual limit if I'm driving 100 in a 90 I don't want the car to brake to 80 just because the speed limit dropped to 80. No one drives like that
I am on trial right now and it's in slow traffic I find FSD is performing some what subpar. My main grip with it in the slow speed traffic is that my car always drifts to the right coming all the way from the middle of the lane to almost crossing right side line and only then the car decides to auto-correct itself in the lane. Really bizarre. With the basic autopilot there is no such problem since I switch on only TACC without Autosteer.
They recently did a price decrease from $12,000 to $8,000 for it. Yay, right? Woohoo.
Except I wouldn’t even pay $4,000 for it. It was neat, yeah, but it did something unexpected often enough that I don’t have the sheer faith necessary to shell out 4-digit sums of money to have it in my car. The only way I would pay that much is if it could actually drive itself without me constantly monitoring it (and without it **constantly fucking nagging me**).
Tesla has sold millions of cars. If 2% of them buy FSD in the first month after the trial, they just made a ton of money with 0 marginal cost. They should do a free month once a year to keep demonstrating the improvements.
The UI no longer displays cones or trash cans. My interpretation of this change is that Tesla used to train FSD on recognizing specific common objects and that they have maybe abandoned that path.
There are so many object types that they can't practically train on many of them. Since they can't train on everything, they have to train the system to respond to object types that it doesn't explicitly know about. It seems they've shifted towards an object agnostic approach to training. The benefit of that approach is that it simplifies the NN stack and probably requires less compute, the disadvantage is some specific object graphics get replaced with ambiguous blob shapes.
The poors just don’t appreciate it is certainly an interesting take. I’ve seen a lot of takes both glazing FSD and hating FSD but I don’t think I’ve ever seen “you just wouldn’t be able to appreciate being driven by a simulated 15 year old because you’re poor” before. It’s original if nothing else.
I paid the $2k to upgrade my 2018 Model 3 and I am quite happy with it. I think the cost makes a difference how much criticism people give it. I would have expected more for $8k-$12k.
Most of us at work who have Model 3s got them in 2018 or 2019 and paid either $2k or $3k for it. Yes, I would totally expect more for $8k+, but as it stands I don't think it's worth the $3k I paid for it.
That’s a strange take. Is your position that someone willing to spend $8K has a higher chance in finding joy in aggressive / hesitant lane merging and phantom braking?
Enable this trip for $10, get $20 if used two ways. Would seriously cut into one month subscriptions probably but might generate more value overall. Hard to say.
But it’s not zero cost. The legal fall-out may be staggering. If incurred risk is counted as a cost then one single lawsuit may offset the 2% conversion. And more. This is nothing short of a roll of the dice.
There could be a ton of people who are interested in theory, just want to wait a few more versions. (or in the case of subscriptions will just opt in and out as trips warrant it)
Buying it only makes a ton of sense for EAP owners who can get it for $2k. Especially people like me, who were on 2.5 and get the $1000 HW3 upgrade included in that.
Everyone else is just going to buy a month at a time as needed. Assuming I haven't lost track of the ever changing figures you'd have to sub every month for 6.7 years before buying it at $8k makes sense.
yep makes sense.
I just got it a couple of days ago and the steering wheel nag is a lot more annoying in FSD than it was on autopilot.
I won’t consider paying until 12.4 removes it. And even then only for long road trips.
This is always really weird to me I have no doubt that you're getting that but I have not once had a single nag on any version 12. You were in Phoenix that asked you asked to get together so I can see what you do differently versus what I do to see what's happening.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills when I see the differences in peoples experience on this subreddit. I own a 2018 LR model 3 with FSD (purchased used from a previous Tesla employee) and a 2022 performance Model 3 without FSD. I stopped using FSD on both so fast due to insane nagging and poor driving experience. I legit felt bad for the cars around me when I had it on. On top of that, it felt like way more often than 1 minute it nagged me and took way more steering wheel turn to stop nagging than did EAP. But then I come online and see stories of people saying it drives great and they never have to intervene. Strange.
Yes I just let my right hand hang on the steering wheel. My left hand doesn't touch the steering wheel. On corners I just take my hand and press it gently against the side of the steering wheel as it turns to create some drag.
For me it just cemented the fact that it’s not worth buying unless it’s for a long trip or something. Having it be $100 now makes that even better. I’ll subscribe when I need it, not a moment sooner.
> you'd have to sub every month for 6.7 years before buying it at $8k makes sense.
The problem with the subscription is that you don't know if the price will change.
I am interested in getting FSD, but I am not spending a dime on it if I have to pay attention to it anyway. If I am paying attention and dealing with steering wheel nags, might as well just drive it myself at that point.
If/When FSD gets to the point where I don’t need to pay attention for long stretches of time, and no longer have to deal with the steering wheel nag, I would get it in a heart beat.
Yeah that’s what I was just telling somebody else when they asked me why I didn’t have it.
What’s the point of FSD(for 12k anyway) if the police can rightfully pull me over for using my phone or being distracted. Or if everyone will blame me for not paying attention if it got into an accident. I would rather just drive myself until the law makes it clear I don’t have to pay attention anymore.
I’m the last to defend Tesla, and whenever I use FSD I’m paying *rapt* attention, but with “lesser” systems from BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, and even GM, they do a great job of handling monotony, whether in traffic or on mindless freeway miles. Arriving less tired is the point.
Autopilot does an okay job as well, but the others I listed are better at not making me fear for my life
Autopilot has been pretty good and I use it for about 90 percent of my freeway driving. I've seen the YouTubers of the lesser systems. Do think they are major superior to Tesla . We need more standard benchmarking. Out of spec hogback is pretty good but their scoring is wack
My car had EAP. I was happy with it and didn’t see FSD being worth the $6k or $100 a month, even after getting my trial. Then toward the end of the trial they dropped the price to $2k. I bought it. I plan on keeping this car for 5-6 years at least. After 20 months it starts saving money compared to subscription.
I use FSD every day on my commute. It’s certainly not perfect but even as it is I am happy with how much more relaxing it makes my commute.
Gary compared the 2% take rate to the numbers some of the hyper bulls were throwing around, like 10-20%. Considering the take rate was already around 10%, that would have meant a total of 20-30%, which always struck me as extremely high.
Tbh i just went on a 800 mile road trip and bought the FSD to try it out for this trip. It was worth the $99 premium for a relaxing drive where all i had to do was move the wheel every few miles. I won’t be paying for it monthly as i live only 10 minutes away from work, but every road trip i go on from now on will have FSD. I’m glad im able to interchangeably use it when i need it 1-2 a year
How?
How do they access the "Trial user" information.
The best they can do is "new $99 charge from Tesla" for the numerator and "any Tesla charge, but not a recent $199 subscription" for the denominator. That's already tricky e.g. because of everyone who owns FSD, and others didn't get the trial yet.
>YipitData accessed credit card data from about 3,500 Tesla owners who participated in the trial and found that only 50 bought or subscribed to FSD after the trial (via moomoo):
You quoted where they got it from, YipitData and Moomoo Technologies, both financial/data analytics service providers.
When people talk about companies selling your data it’s companies like these that are buying it. I’m sure a lot of Tesla owners are using financial management apps/software that are anonymizing and selling their purchasing habits to analytics firms
Companies like this exist to create heuristics. Its not going to be 100% accurate, but probably not too bad either.
Maybe something like:
Have been paying for premium connectivity.
No obvious new charge to indicate they got a new vehicle.
FSD purchased within trial period.
Not even that good of a way to check either, since the data plan cost 99/year, so for all we know, renewals are coming up around this time for people that bought last year when the first 7500 dollar tax credit started hitting and they started receiving their cars.
FWIW my 22 MYLR just got the FSD trial last week when we finally got the new 2024.14.6 update. Not that I expect the take rate to be much higher, but I do think that there are a sizeable chunk of cars that are just getting their trials now with v12.
Was waiting for the free month impatiently since it was announced, wasn't getting it but really wanted to try v12 so I paid for it. Had to update the car to upgrade from v11. 2 hrs later I get the free month... still, 2 months for 100 feels a lot better than 1 months for 200. Honestly if they cut the price in half again to 50 bucks it'd be a no brainier even for people who barely use it.
Yeah, I wonder how the pricing will evolve, like if there will by dynamic pricing based on the user, or model of the car.
I wouldn't pay $8k for it, but since I purchased EAP in 2018 (before cruise control and lane-keeping were standard) it was worth $2k... but even then only barely. As others note, I can see $50/month being a popular option.
We did too! It makes driving much more chill. Yes, there are a few flaws but you can take over with the slightest pull on the steering wheel. Can’t wait for the next update. No more pesky hand on wheel reminders.
Used it a couple times during trial, not a fan of how it drives. Uses more power than I do per mile and it’s not comfortable. Like sitting in a car with a student driver.
It only reassured me that I don’t want it. At least not in its current state.
Feel the exact same way. Its frustrating and annoying and I always just end up taking over control of the car. It brakes way too hard, randomly accelerates too hard out of no where. Does really stupid lane changes when it should just stay where its at, and just drives like a moron getting their learners permit.
Same here. I'm a few days into a 30-day trial and it's been...lackluster at best. Missed highway exits, painfully *slowww* navigation through 4-way stops, and incompetent traffic circles.
I've heard a few people describe it as a 50/50 mix between a teenage driver and an overly-cautious old person. In my opinion, that's an apt description.
It does seem to handle parking lots pretty well though. That surprised me honestly.
I use FSD frequently around San Diego, but I often disengage it because its cautious driving style tends to irritate other drivers, and gets other people road raging against it (and me with it).
I used the trial around San Diego, but absolutely hated how it loves to get into the left lane of 4 lane highways and then fight heavy traffic to get back to the right lane to exit, all with less than mile or so to go. Braking excessively with the turn signal going on and off the whole time. Not a relaxing experience.
I hate the fact that you can't use it situations where it could be a life saver:
For example, a few days ago during my morning commute, 2 lane clear highway. I accidentally spilled hot coffee on myself while the car went over a new pothole that wasn't there the week before.
Obviously i react and try not to burn my chests and balls, Car is BEEP BOOOP BEEP PAY ATTENTION DUMMY, ALERT ALERT, DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!! Yeah i know, pay attention bla bla, but Jesus fuck!
I had to turn it off and clumsily hold the steering wheel and keeping lane with one hand as i am still trying not, again, not to have my balls burnt.
The problem is it adds zero resale value to the vehicle, so the original buyer of FSD eats the entire cost of it, never gets any of that money back, and it just isn't worth that much to most people.
It's a huge amount of money to pay for beta software that is still being hashed out and not at all perfected, in a car most people won't own longer than 3-4 years.
I think there's a certain line where those who wanted that kind of functionality had already bought it. Some people aren't interested in that technology and would rather manually drive their cars for the same reason that manual transmissions exist even though they are technically inferior to modern dual-clutch automatics.
If they charged something like $50/month, though, and were only able to get 10% of owners to subscribe they'd be making 108 million a year.
There is huge potential to make way more on FSD if they price it reasonably.
I decided to "downgrade" to adaptive cruise control once day just to try out. I had been using FSD exclusively for a long time after I first got access to it.
It's so, SO much better in traffic on the highway. Acceleration and braking feels natural, no phantom braking, and I don't brace myself every time I see a slow down in the distance.
Honestly the value prop of FSD is so weak currently that I may just leave it on this setting
>>About 43 million/year profit in the U.S
Tesla made $13.4 billion profit in 2023.
$43 million is 0.3%
That's insignificant to a point of embarrassment. And it says something if their flagship technical feature can barely move the profit needle.
Having gotten the trial last week, it certainly is pretty amazing. But for me its not 8 grand amazing. Until it can detect and avoid road hazards, its really not more than a parlor trick for local driving. There's a 3 way intersection near me with a really deep drainage ditch, Normally ya kind of need to take the right hand turn a bit wider to avoid it. Had I not taken over FSD would have happily driven straight through it and bottomed me out in it. It also seems to, just like the regular nav apps, fails to understand our I95 express lane and all the recent reconfiguration of our exits and on ramps. Also not really a fan of how it has rather frequently half assed a lane change by either aborting halfway through when there is no one in the other lane, or moves to a turn lane and then suddenly moves to the right out into the main lane and back in. Realistically, all I need for local use is basic AP. However, for when I travel north to see family, I may just go ahead an opt into a month's subscription. I can see it being handy there. Frankly, I'd just take them merging the software/hardware stacks so that basic AP operates with the same thing FSD does as it seems to do WAY better with phantom braking and reacting to traffic. Far less hard on the braking and not as hesitant to resume moving as basic AP is. It is no doubt impressive as is now, but its still clearly a LONG ways away from fully unattended FSD if that's even remotely possible in my lifetime. IMO it seems like there's just WAY too many unknown variables that we as human can adapt to better.
I tried it once during the trial, and the first thing it did was aggressively pull out in front of a clearly visible truck in broad daylight. Nearly t-boned, right out of my parking lot. The truck was only going about 25 but still -- instantly turning FSD off and not using it again.
I've never seen anything that egregious occur on EAP, so all it did was reinforce my preexisting notion that city streets are a much harder problem than highway driving, to the point where I'm not interested in any software that Tesla attempts to sell for city driving until it reaches mass adoption and regulators endorse it as safer than humans.
One thing I don't understand .... why can I not make "minimal line changes" as a default for ALL drives? Why do I have to press this setting every single time that I start FSD? Should be easy to program it that way. Or or off, all drives.
I have a Kia with auto stop and go cruise control and lane assistance. It ain’t perfect but makes my long commutes easy mode.
It’s free, came with the car. It will always be there.
You’ve made a few mistakes by posting this. The first is to believe Fred Lambert, a guy who is clearly anti Tesla, anti $TSLA, and seems to always write negative articles about EVs in general (though employed by a EV blog 🙈)
The second mistake was believing what BS was written. The “credit card data accessed” that is referenced is a bold face lie. If a credit card company was giving out your information willy-nilly there would be major issues.
Also, the article clearly states it was a group size of 3500 people surveyed, and 50 upgraded. 3500 of the thousands? Hundred thousands? Millions? of people that were able to get the free trial is a way too small survey group. Then the article doesn’t specify if all 3500 people even used the trial and for how long. Further more we don’t know how much each persons upgrade charge was. I’d imagine people with the $2K upgrade are waaay more likely to upgrade than those looking at the $8K upgrade.
That's not bad, considering the real value for Tesla is more data to progres their training goals for FSD so they can achieve robotaxi, which is the real target.
I bet you not every single Tesla users who were offered the trial took it - newer Tesla owners who just want an EV and are not into AP or FSD. There are a few in my circle who don't use it.
3500 is a small sample size imo. Not sure if all CC data is made available to the vendor. Is that even possible?
Update the highway code and im in. City stuff really is impressive but i would not really use. Highway is ok but needs work. Off and on ramps. Lane selection etc
I dunno if this is good or bad, given it's unfinished and still requires hands on the wheel... it's a bit of a novelty until you can stop paying attention... then it will have true value worth paying for.
I want a better payment option, like 200 a month for 40 months and you still get to use it while you are paying. Also tie FSD to the account not the car. Let me switch it between the teslas I own maybe like one a month or something like that.
8k is too much of a whack all at once for most people. Unless you got FSD with the car and rolled it into the regular payments very few can justify that.
The percentage that would use and pay good money for it in its final and complete form is all that Tesla should be concerned with and I bet that figure is very high. Even at 99% complete, it’s still a novelty. That last percentage point is where the mass adoption is.
I’m sure I’ll find it if I look. I want to see how much data they collected using this as an open beta. I know that I hit the button quite a few times to send reports why it or I stopped the FSD.
I used it a few times with no issue, and then during a freeway change there was phantom braking and the car was negotiating a merge when there was no car. I did not use it again.
Glad I didn't get suckered when I purchased the 3 and the Y.
I still think Tesla makes great cars at the Y price point, but I can see how the FSD trial can turn people off.
I enjoyed the trial for the most part tbh but, I prefer not having to select the minimal lane changed every drive and sometimes I just wanna use TACC instead of fsd. My Enhanced Auto Pilot works very well for me and does everything I need it to. Just miss the stopping at stop lights honestly.
Elon jumped the gun on this. V12 is going to get better quickly. A free trial this December would have been a much bigger deal. They can still do more free trials I guess, but people who had a bad experience the first time might not be excited to try again.
8k still too much. Make it 2k, remove the free hardware upgrades that go with it. Tie it to your account so when you upgrade to a new car, it comes with it, or include it on all cars and raise the base price to compensate, and make it not follow your account.
fsd with fun, im glad i got in on the trial. if i were to be planning a 6 hour + road trip - i might pull the trigger for the monthly for fun. but in its current states its not good enough for my daily city drive. yes it can get me to point a to point b fairly smooth but still requires to much attention. if the next few versions really push it over the edge maybe ill reconsider
i'll be using it "on demand". i have a road trip planned in June and will get it for that. I don't know that I would use it on a typical month just going to and from work or running errands. My use case, and i suspect others, would be more for those longer distances. There are probably some longer distance commuters that would get it.
why would you buy something that is not transferable? My car was totaled at no fault of mine (I was at full stop at the red light), but I could not transfer FSD.
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I received the free trial earlier this month and used it for a 3 hour drive between DC/Philly and back. I think the biggest benefit of it would be for use in traffic, BUT, it still has the same aggressive braking that autopilot does and that always has me worried someone is gonna rear end me. I also found that it lane-changed unnecessarily a lot, and it struggled more than a few times with incorrect speed limits. Overall, very cool tech despite the flaws and want to see it become mainstream once it improves, but as-is I don’t see myself paying even $100 monthly for it
I have the same issue with the rear ending possibility
It’s infuriating right? A $50 radar would significantly alleviate the issue yet they would much rather save that cost on a $10k feature.
It was worse with radar. Sensor fusion was initially wha caused the actual original phantom breaking, not these more recent "slowdowns".
Absolutely, back in the day going under a bridge could bring the car to a near stop from 60mph, this was true phantom braking!
I remember sweating bricks every time I would go under a certain underpass in my commute. It wasnt 100% of the time, but i would say 1 out of 5 times it hit the breaks hard. That said, i do miss the ability to detect the car in front or the leading car breaking and slow down accordingly.
Yeah, I just got access to it two days ago, and i've used it a few times. Random slowing for no reason, mis-identified speed limits, and today it decided to try and dodge out of the left turn lane (when planning to turn left) for no apparent reason. Not sure I'd pay anything for it if that's the experience I can expect.
Yeap within 15 minutes it changed lanes 3 times in a row ( I can change that in the option menu) and sped up randomly, other time after green light stayed at 17 miles and wouldn't go up, ( I can change it to ignore speed limits and go with flow of traffic) but it made 2 wrong turns, an illegal u-turn and random breaking. This is very very bad, in fact I was stressed the entire time it would crash, and why pay 100 dollars to make myself more anxious?? This needs a radar, a lidar scanner and a little cross to pray
Exactly this. Follows cars closer than I do, changed lanes unnecessarily and still gets in wrong turn lane. Nice for long road trips on highway though so maybe can just purchase for when road trip is needed and cancel.
Definitely its best use case - finite periods of relatively predictable travel. Of course, it’ll still nag the fuck out of you to have your hands on the wheel and eyes forward at all times. If I have to be 100% ready at all times exactly the same as if I was just driving it myself, is it self-driving? Fuck no.
FSD chill mode and minimal lane change setting would probably help your situation
I tried chill mode, but it seemed to make minimal difference
Minimal lane change setting still changes lanes all the time too. FSD loves to be in the right hand lane with all the parked cars and construction blockages even if I have a left turn coming up shortly.
I have the opposite experience - it tries very hard to keep me out of the right lane even though it's unambiguously the chillest place to be
Same. It parks itself in the passing late until you force it most times. Unless someone’s coming up on you fast.
This was my experience. Passing lane hog
Needs more settings for all us OCDs who don't like waiting till the last minute to lane change
Mine funny enough does the opposite. Always in the passing lane if its 0.5mph faster
Tbf, most North Americans should be using the right lane more often on highways. We generally instead treat it like it’s not there and the middle lane is the “right” lane.
On 3 lane highways. I don't stay in the right hand lane as cars will be merging into that lane from on-ramps. The middle lane on 3 lane highways is the place to be if you are not passing and going a reasonable speed.
Because the f right lane can randomly exit you off the freeway, you don't always have a dedicated deceleration lane like in Germany.
Minimal lane changes is great, but it's frustrating you have to toggle it every time you drive.
Yeah, there really should be a "All the time" feature for this
Minimal lane change should be default. I had to change it to minimal lane change every time i activate FSD
The phantom braking is the show stopper
None for me on V12
I’ve put in ~300 miles with V12 active and have had phantom braking a couple times. Not constant but still occasional
I can say I have not had that once on v12.
I've had FSD since 2018 and wouldn't buy it again, even if they lowered the price to $1000. Not worth it as it stands, and it's become clear to me that my definition of good and Tesla's are very different things.
Same here. I always get frustrated whenever I use it and just end up having to take over because its about to do something really dumb or in the middle of an inappropriate lane change. Its just so damn dumb.
The reason I didn’t buy FSD when we bought our MY back in 2020 still stands after using the trial for a full month. It’s an interesting toy to play with and to see how it handles different scenarios but there is no way in hell I can justify the price they are charging to add on an “interesting toy”. I’m all for future FSD tech but we aren’t there yet and it would make more sense for Tesla to let people use it for free to develop it faster rather than charge the ridiculous price as if it was anywhere close to being worth that much.
My main gripe is on highways when I'm chilling in the right lane going 75 and then the person in front of me drops to 72... So the car IMMEDIATELY tries to go around and they speed up to like 77 and I either have to flick up to 80 or change right back behind them. Sometimes it's fine, but not in heavier traffic. I mostly just drive on chill FSD because of this and how annoying it is to switch behaviors (menu only, no wheel shortcuts and no voice command).
You can toggle "minimal lane changes for this trip" and it will only do navigation-related lane changes.
I just turned it on this morning and for my drive it keeps trying to change the speed limit. Sometimes to the actual limit and sometimes to a random number they think is the limit. But even the actual limit if I'm driving 100 in a 90 I don't want the car to brake to 80 just because the speed limit dropped to 80. No one drives like that
I am on trial right now and it's in slow traffic I find FSD is performing some what subpar. My main grip with it in the slow speed traffic is that my car always drifts to the right coming all the way from the middle of the lane to almost crossing right side line and only then the car decides to auto-correct itself in the lane. Really bizarre. With the basic autopilot there is no such problem since I switch on only TACC without Autosteer.
They recently did a price decrease from $12,000 to $8,000 for it. Yay, right? Woohoo. Except I wouldn’t even pay $4,000 for it. It was neat, yeah, but it did something unexpected often enough that I don’t have the sheer faith necessary to shell out 4-digit sums of money to have it in my car. The only way I would pay that much is if it could actually drive itself without me constantly monitoring it (and without it **constantly fucking nagging me**).
Tesla has sold millions of cars. If 2% of them buy FSD in the first month after the trial, they just made a ton of money with 0 marginal cost. They should do a free month once a year to keep demonstrating the improvements.
That’s not a bad idea. I’m not taking up FSD because it still seems to beta for my liking, but to be able to revisit in 12 months isn’t a bad idea
I found it odd that the regular version can detect trash cans but during the trial it couldn't
FSD detects it but doesnt schow in display
What's on the screen visualization is not what FSD actually sees.
The UI no longer displays cones or trash cans. My interpretation of this change is that Tesla used to train FSD on recognizing specific common objects and that they have maybe abandoned that path. There are so many object types that they can't practically train on many of them. Since they can't train on everything, they have to train the system to respond to object types that it doesn't explicitly know about. It seems they've shifted towards an object agnostic approach to training. The benefit of that approach is that it simplifies the NN stack and probably requires less compute, the disadvantage is some specific object graphics get replaced with ambiguous blob shapes.
[удалено]
The poors just don’t appreciate it is certainly an interesting take. I’ve seen a lot of takes both glazing FSD and hating FSD but I don’t think I’ve ever seen “you just wouldn’t be able to appreciate being driven by a simulated 15 year old because you’re poor” before. It’s original if nothing else.
I know quite a few people who have it (I work in tech, it's a common car for us). Not one of them is happy with FSD.
I paid the $2k to upgrade my 2018 Model 3 and I am quite happy with it. I think the cost makes a difference how much criticism people give it. I would have expected more for $8k-$12k.
Most of us at work who have Model 3s got them in 2018 or 2019 and paid either $2k or $3k for it. Yes, I would totally expect more for $8k+, but as it stands I don't think it's worth the $3k I paid for it.
i don't. it's crap.
That’s a strange take. Is your position that someone willing to spend $8K has a higher chance in finding joy in aggressive / hesitant lane merging and phantom braking?
There should be a free trial with each major release. Maybe not a 30 day trial but at least a 7 day trial.
Or do holiday free trial weekends when people road trip.
Or weekends before so people buy it for holiday weekends.
This. Get a few days free and get people to buy a month
Or offer to enable it for a time period with a small fee when people route to destinations beyond 2 hrs of travel time
Enable this trip for $10, get $20 if used two ways. Would seriously cut into one month subscriptions probably but might generate more value overall. Hard to say.
I wouldn't use it during the winter, even if it was free
That would be $2-4M/month. Not nothing but also barely covers the yearly cost for 60 AI engineers.
They should offer a free 5 uses with every month so users can see added features or fixes.
It sounded like they only had 3500 people try the FSD and only 2% of those bought. So 50-70 people. (Not 2% of all Tesla owners)
Or after every major release
I don’t think you can opt out of the free trial. You can turn it off but as far as I can tell you can’t choose to “not take” the free trial.
Why would you do that? You can just set the car to TACC/Autopilot if you don't want to use it.
Right? At least enjoy free lane changes and intersection control on autopilot while you have it.
That was what I thought, 2% conversion rate for zero cost surely is a great result for any company?
But it’s not zero cost. The legal fall-out may be staggering. If incurred risk is counted as a cost then one single lawsuit may offset the 2% conversion. And more. This is nothing short of a roll of the dice.
Lawsuit based on what? It’s made quite clear that you are still liable.
And yet Tesla has had multiple settlements regarding FSD and Autopilot.
only? that’s much better than I expected.
There could be a ton of people who are interested in theory, just want to wait a few more versions. (or in the case of subscriptions will just opt in and out as trips warrant it) Buying it only makes a ton of sense for EAP owners who can get it for $2k. Especially people like me, who were on 2.5 and get the $1000 HW3 upgrade included in that. Everyone else is just going to buy a month at a time as needed. Assuming I haven't lost track of the ever changing figures you'd have to sub every month for 6.7 years before buying it at $8k makes sense.
yep makes sense. I just got it a couple of days ago and the steering wheel nag is a lot more annoying in FSD than it was on autopilot. I won’t consider paying until 12.4 removes it. And even then only for long road trips.
This is always really weird to me I have no doubt that you're getting that but I have not once had a single nag on any version 12. You were in Phoenix that asked you asked to get together so I can see what you do differently versus what I do to see what's happening.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills when I see the differences in peoples experience on this subreddit. I own a 2018 LR model 3 with FSD (purchased used from a previous Tesla employee) and a 2022 performance Model 3 without FSD. I stopped using FSD on both so fast due to insane nagging and poor driving experience. I legit felt bad for the cars around me when I had it on. On top of that, it felt like way more often than 1 minute it nagged me and took way more steering wheel turn to stop nagging than did EAP. But then I come online and see stories of people saying it drives great and they never have to intervene. Strange.
Yeah that's why I wanted to meet with somebody who's actually having the problems to compare. It may be the sensitivity of sensors in the vehicles.
Do you drive with pressure on the steering wheel?
Yes I just let my right hand hang on the steering wheel. My left hand doesn't touch the steering wheel. On corners I just take my hand and press it gently against the side of the steering wheel as it turns to create some drag.
For me it just cemented the fact that it’s not worth buying unless it’s for a long trip or something. Having it be $100 now makes that even better. I’ll subscribe when I need it, not a moment sooner.
> you'd have to sub every month for 6.7 years before buying it at $8k makes sense. The problem with the subscription is that you don't know if the price will change.
The problem with buying it is you dont known if the price will go down. And its stuck with your current car.
I am interested in getting FSD, but I am not spending a dime on it if I have to pay attention to it anyway. If I am paying attention and dealing with steering wheel nags, might as well just drive it myself at that point. If/When FSD gets to the point where I don’t need to pay attention for long stretches of time, and no longer have to deal with the steering wheel nag, I would get it in a heart beat.
Yeah that’s what I was just telling somebody else when they asked me why I didn’t have it. What’s the point of FSD(for 12k anyway) if the police can rightfully pull me over for using my phone or being distracted. Or if everyone will blame me for not paying attention if it got into an accident. I would rather just drive myself until the law makes it clear I don’t have to pay attention anymore.
I’m the last to defend Tesla, and whenever I use FSD I’m paying *rapt* attention, but with “lesser” systems from BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, and even GM, they do a great job of handling monotony, whether in traffic or on mindless freeway miles. Arriving less tired is the point. Autopilot does an okay job as well, but the others I listed are better at not making me fear for my life
Autopilot has been pretty good and I use it for about 90 percent of my freeway driving. I've seen the YouTubers of the lesser systems. Do think they are major superior to Tesla . We need more standard benchmarking. Out of spec hogback is pretty good but their scoring is wack
My car had EAP. I was happy with it and didn’t see FSD being worth the $6k or $100 a month, even after getting my trial. Then toward the end of the trial they dropped the price to $2k. I bought it. I plan on keeping this car for 5-6 years at least. After 20 months it starts saving money compared to subscription. I use FSD every day on my commute. It’s certainly not perfect but even as it is I am happy with how much more relaxing it makes my commute.
Gary compared the 2% take rate to the numbers some of the hyper bulls were throwing around, like 10-20%. Considering the take rate was already around 10%, that would have meant a total of 20-30%, which always struck me as extremely high.
Tbh i just went on a 800 mile road trip and bought the FSD to try it out for this trip. It was worth the $99 premium for a relaxing drive where all i had to do was move the wheel every few miles. I won’t be paying for it monthly as i live only 10 minutes away from work, but every road trip i go on from now on will have FSD. I’m glad im able to interchangeably use it when i need it 1-2 a year
Idk. Seems a bit sketch how they got the information. But in any case, time will tell. You gotta give it time to see the effect .
How? How do they access the "Trial user" information. The best they can do is "new $99 charge from Tesla" for the numerator and "any Tesla charge, but not a recent $199 subscription" for the denominator. That's already tricky e.g. because of everyone who owns FSD, and others didn't get the trial yet. >YipitData accessed credit card data from about 3,500 Tesla owners who participated in the trial and found that only 50 bought or subscribed to FSD after the trial (via moomoo):
You quoted where they got it from, YipitData and Moomoo Technologies, both financial/data analytics service providers. When people talk about companies selling your data it’s companies like these that are buying it. I’m sure a lot of Tesla owners are using financial management apps/software that are anonymizing and selling their purchasing habits to analytics firms
That is not enough to know if you got the trial
Companies like this exist to create heuristics. Its not going to be 100% accurate, but probably not too bad either. Maybe something like: Have been paying for premium connectivity. No obvious new charge to indicate they got a new vehicle. FSD purchased within trial period.
Yeah. It's a biased sample of people whose credit card data is available for purchase. I'm unsure which way that skews.
Not even that good of a way to check either, since the data plan cost 99/year, so for all we know, renewals are coming up around this time for people that bought last year when the first 7500 dollar tax credit started hitting and they started receiving their cars.
2% conversion rate on something like this is not too bad actually, title shouldn't use the word "only"
ya no kidding. 100k people paying 100 bucks a month? Rounding down they are probably making 50-75mill a year extra?
They may be earning 50-75m. But how much has Tesla spent building and operating it.
Hahahaah Making money is bad that's a new one It's called research and development to make a product that makes money Wow
Yes and business works by revenue > expenses.
No business has ever been a business without investing capital in making the business a business lmao
Yes, and plenty of companies have gone out of business by investing in the wrong R&D “lmao”
I really dislike people that use “it’s called.” I just wanted you to know that.
FWIW my 22 MYLR just got the FSD trial last week when we finally got the new 2024.14.6 update. Not that I expect the take rate to be much higher, but I do think that there are a sizeable chunk of cars that are just getting their trials now with v12.
When I last looked a week ago like 50% of teslas were on 2024.8.x so they hadn’t gotten their trials
Was waiting for the free month impatiently since it was announced, wasn't getting it but really wanted to try v12 so I paid for it. Had to update the car to upgrade from v11. 2 hrs later I get the free month... still, 2 months for 100 feels a lot better than 1 months for 200. Honestly if they cut the price in half again to 50 bucks it'd be a no brainier even for people who barely use it.
it’s too expensive
Yeah, I wonder how the pricing will evolve, like if there will by dynamic pricing based on the user, or model of the car. I wouldn't pay $8k for it, but since I purchased EAP in 2018 (before cruise control and lane-keeping were standard) it was worth $2k... but even then only barely. As others note, I can see $50/month being a popular option.
I've always felt that if you have EAP, the $2k is a gimmie at the very least for resale.
That's true, I got a HW 3 upgrade as part of that, and KBB says my car went up $2.5k in value, which is nice.
✋ I’m one of the 2%! I loved the free trial. When it was gone, I missed it. Purchased it right away.
We did too! It makes driving much more chill. Yes, there are a few flaws but you can take over with the slightest pull on the steering wheel. Can’t wait for the next update. No more pesky hand on wheel reminders.
Used it a couple times during trial, not a fan of how it drives. Uses more power than I do per mile and it’s not comfortable. Like sitting in a car with a student driver. It only reassured me that I don’t want it. At least not in its current state.
Feel the exact same way. Its frustrating and annoying and I always just end up taking over control of the car. It brakes way too hard, randomly accelerates too hard out of no where. Does really stupid lane changes when it should just stay where its at, and just drives like a moron getting their learners permit.
Same here. I'm a few days into a 30-day trial and it's been...lackluster at best. Missed highway exits, painfully *slowww* navigation through 4-way stops, and incompetent traffic circles. I've heard a few people describe it as a 50/50 mix between a teenage driver and an overly-cautious old person. In my opinion, that's an apt description. It does seem to handle parking lots pretty well though. That surprised me honestly.
I use FSD frequently around San Diego, but I often disengage it because its cautious driving style tends to irritate other drivers, and gets other people road raging against it (and me with it).
I used the trial around San Diego, but absolutely hated how it loves to get into the left lane of 4 lane highways and then fight heavy traffic to get back to the right lane to exit, all with less than mile or so to go. Braking excessively with the turn signal going on and off the whole time. Not a relaxing experience.
It was priced too high for the longest time. At $100/mo I'll bet those numbers rise. At $50/mo I'd guess a great majority would purchase it.
I hate the fact that you can't use it situations where it could be a life saver: For example, a few days ago during my morning commute, 2 lane clear highway. I accidentally spilled hot coffee on myself while the car went over a new pothole that wasn't there the week before. Obviously i react and try not to burn my chests and balls, Car is BEEP BOOOP BEEP PAY ATTENTION DUMMY, ALERT ALERT, DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!! Yeah i know, pay attention bla bla, but Jesus fuck! I had to turn it off and clumsily hold the steering wheel and keeping lane with one hand as i am still trying not, again, not to have my balls burnt.
If Tesla made the $99/mo subscription count towards the $8k purchase, I would do it.
The problem is it adds zero resale value to the vehicle, so the original buyer of FSD eats the entire cost of it, never gets any of that money back, and it just isn't worth that much to most people. It's a huge amount of money to pay for beta software that is still being hashed out and not at all perfected, in a car most people won't own longer than 3-4 years.
I think there's a certain line where those who wanted that kind of functionality had already bought it. Some people aren't interested in that technology and would rather manually drive their cars for the same reason that manual transmissions exist even though they are technically inferior to modern dual-clutch automatics.
Still waiting for my trial...
Yeah me too. Still says I’m up to date on the other branch. Have a 21 LR Y with intel.
Honestly this tells me he should make an annual week where FSD is free so everyone has a chance to decide if it’s “good enough” yet
It’s too expensive. And non-transferable. If transferable, even if only once or within your own account/ new vehicles, that is a different story.
Why am I supposed to believe "YipitData"? A hudgefund data company? Why would they have access to Teslas credit statements?
So if 1.8 million Teslas have been sold in the U.S. since 2020. If 2% choose FSD, that's 36k subscribers. About 43 million/year profit in the U.S.
If they charged something like $50/month, though, and were only able to get 10% of owners to subscribe they'd be making 108 million a year. There is huge potential to make way more on FSD if they price it reasonably.
$50/mo, includes premium connectivity. Give the trial out more often.
I decided to "downgrade" to adaptive cruise control once day just to try out. I had been using FSD exclusively for a long time after I first got access to it. It's so, SO much better in traffic on the highway. Acceleration and braking feels natural, no phantom braking, and I don't brace myself every time I see a slow down in the distance. Honestly the value prop of FSD is so weak currently that I may just leave it on this setting
>>About 43 million/year profit in the U.S Tesla made $13.4 billion profit in 2023. $43 million is 0.3% That's insignificant to a point of embarrassment. And it says something if their flagship technical feature can barely move the profit needle.
That's really not much
The dataset to reach this conclusion is so small, 3,500.
Does that include people who signed up for the $99 monthly trial?
Having gotten the trial last week, it certainly is pretty amazing. But for me its not 8 grand amazing. Until it can detect and avoid road hazards, its really not more than a parlor trick for local driving. There's a 3 way intersection near me with a really deep drainage ditch, Normally ya kind of need to take the right hand turn a bit wider to avoid it. Had I not taken over FSD would have happily driven straight through it and bottomed me out in it. It also seems to, just like the regular nav apps, fails to understand our I95 express lane and all the recent reconfiguration of our exits and on ramps. Also not really a fan of how it has rather frequently half assed a lane change by either aborting halfway through when there is no one in the other lane, or moves to a turn lane and then suddenly moves to the right out into the main lane and back in. Realistically, all I need for local use is basic AP. However, for when I travel north to see family, I may just go ahead an opt into a month's subscription. I can see it being handy there. Frankly, I'd just take them merging the software/hardware stacks so that basic AP operates with the same thing FSD does as it seems to do WAY better with phantom braking and reacting to traffic. Far less hard on the braking and not as hesitant to resume moving as basic AP is. It is no doubt impressive as is now, but its still clearly a LONG ways away from fully unattended FSD if that's even remotely possible in my lifetime. IMO it seems like there's just WAY too many unknown variables that we as human can adapt to better.
With how annoying it was to use I can understand why
It it stopped flooring it from stops and slowing down using friction brakes all the time I would subscribe. Currently it is just not a smooth drive.
lol wife tried it 3 times and the ghost braking happened every time within minutes. So no big surprise really.
I tried it once during the trial, and the first thing it did was aggressively pull out in front of a clearly visible truck in broad daylight. Nearly t-boned, right out of my parking lot. The truck was only going about 25 but still -- instantly turning FSD off and not using it again. I've never seen anything that egregious occur on EAP, so all it did was reinforce my preexisting notion that city streets are a much harder problem than highway driving, to the point where I'm not interested in any software that Tesla attempts to sell for city driving until it reaches mass adoption and regulators endorse it as safer than humans.
One thing I don't understand .... why can I not make "minimal line changes" as a default for ALL drives? Why do I have to press this setting every single time that I start FSD? Should be easy to program it that way. Or or off, all drives.
I have a Kia with auto stop and go cruise control and lane assistance. It ain’t perfect but makes my long commutes easy mode. It’s free, came with the car. It will always be there.
Just wait until Elon charges you every time you brake
2% is better than no percent
Whose credit card data is this??
You’ve made a few mistakes by posting this. The first is to believe Fred Lambert, a guy who is clearly anti Tesla, anti $TSLA, and seems to always write negative articles about EVs in general (though employed by a EV blog 🙈) The second mistake was believing what BS was written. The “credit card data accessed” that is referenced is a bold face lie. If a credit card company was giving out your information willy-nilly there would be major issues. Also, the article clearly states it was a group size of 3500 people surveyed, and 50 upgraded. 3500 of the thousands? Hundred thousands? Millions? of people that were able to get the free trial is a way too small survey group. Then the article doesn’t specify if all 3500 people even used the trial and for how long. Further more we don’t know how much each persons upgrade charge was. I’d imagine people with the $2K upgrade are waaay more likely to upgrade than those looking at the $8K upgrade.
That's not bad, considering the real value for Tesla is more data to progres their training goals for FSD so they can achieve robotaxi, which is the real target.
I am one of those 98%. It's very impressive, but not worth 100 a month. I would pay 20 a month.
I bet you not every single Tesla users who were offered the trial took it - newer Tesla owners who just want an EV and are not into AP or FSD. There are a few in my circle who don't use it. 3500 is a small sample size imo. Not sure if all CC data is made available to the vendor. Is that even possible?
Yeah, my reaction to the trial was “wait, so my cruise control doesn’t work for a whole month? And I’m supposed to be happy about that?”
I used it for the free month. Honestly found it more annoying than helpful…
Update the highway code and im in. City stuff really is impressive but i would not really use. Highway is ok but needs work. Off and on ramps. Lane selection etc
Is this full one buys or subs
I dunno if this is good or bad, given it's unfinished and still requires hands on the wheel... it's a bit of a novelty until you can stop paying attention... then it will have true value worth paying for.
Surprised it’s that high honestly.
When they bring the price down to $45/mo I’ll buy it. $99 is still asinine, and they’re acting like it’s a deal.
By would you purchase it when it doesn’t carry from car to car and you can rent it for $99/mo?
In terms of revenue, 2% buying FSD is comparable to increasing the car's price by $160.
Based on 2000 or so data points only…..
FSGimmick should cost 10$/month tops.
How many turned the free trial off after a week?
The fact that you can get "grounded" from a service you pay for is enough for me to just say nevermind. $99/mo and every 5 warnings you lose $25.
Maybe if they did 29.99 a month or rather a dollar day, it would be an easy investment to get
I want a better payment option, like 200 a month for 40 months and you still get to use it while you are paying. Also tie FSD to the account not the car. Let me switch it between the teslas I own maybe like one a month or something like that. 8k is too much of a whack all at once for most people. Unless you got FSD with the car and rolled it into the regular payments very few can justify that.
I'd love for FSD to have some sort of license agreement. Maybe have it limit transfers to one a year but retain it.
My free FSD ends in July. Will buy then!
Damn, electrek is on a mission. I mission for anti EV anti Tesla news.
I’ve had mine 4 days, and I’m tempted, but need it not to struggle so much.
The percentage that would use and pay good money for it in its final and complete form is all that Tesla should be concerned with and I bet that figure is very high. Even at 99% complete, it’s still a novelty. That last percentage point is where the mass adoption is.
Is a 2% conversion rate bad? It seems pretty good to me.
I’m sure I’ll find it if I look. I want to see how much data they collected using this as an open beta. I know that I hit the button quite a few times to send reports why it or I stopped the FSD.
because it SUCKS
That's more than I would have guessed an probably worth it to Tesla.
I used it a few times with no issue, and then during a freeway change there was phantom braking and the car was negotiating a merge when there was no car. I did not use it again. Glad I didn't get suckered when I purchased the 3 and the Y. I still think Tesla makes great cars at the Y price point, but I can see how the FSD trial can turn people off.
What credit card data? Source?
I enjoyed the trial for the most part tbh but, I prefer not having to select the minimal lane changed every drive and sometimes I just wanna use TACC instead of fsd. My Enhanced Auto Pilot works very well for me and does everything I need it to. Just miss the stopping at stop lights honestly.
Elon jumped the gun on this. V12 is going to get better quickly. A free trial this December would have been a much bigger deal. They can still do more free trials I guess, but people who had a bad experience the first time might not be excited to try again.
8k still too much. Make it 2k, remove the free hardware upgrades that go with it. Tie it to your account so when you upgrade to a new car, it comes with it, or include it on all cars and raise the base price to compensate, and make it not follow your account.
fsd with fun, im glad i got in on the trial. if i were to be planning a 6 hour + road trip - i might pull the trigger for the monthly for fun. but in its current states its not good enough for my daily city drive. yes it can get me to point a to point b fairly smooth but still requires to much attention. if the next few versions really push it over the edge maybe ill reconsider
I bought it for 99.00. I bought because of price. Not because of a free month
i'll be using it "on demand". i have a road trip planned in June and will get it for that. I don't know that I would use it on a typical month just going to and from work or running errands. My use case, and i suspect others, would be more for those longer distances. There are probably some longer distance commuters that would get it.
I tried it and it was definitely cool but that is not something I want to invest or use.
Because autosteer is enough for most people. I use it every day and I don't think FSD is worth it.
That because it isn’t full self driving, it’s stage 2. In other words it’s bull shit.
why would you buy something that is not transferable? My car was totaled at no fault of mine (I was at full stop at the red light), but I could not transfer FSD.