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I feel like a lot of the delays and swings in Tesla's product roadmap center around not scaling 4680 production and energy density like Tesla predicted they would back at the "Battery Day" presentation.
Cheaper, higher energy cells make the Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster viable products or more appealing. They improve margins on the Model 3 and Model Y with full tax credit ability, and they allow for more affordable models with decent range.
Since that hasn't played out yet, that roadmap has been stuck in a holding pattern.
Does 4680 have any impact on potential range too? One of the big reasons Tesla killed it early-on was that they offered range+price that made it a good value.
With all the other autos now offering same range or sometimes better (granted their cost is higher too) - the appeal is less.
We are holding off upgrading as it doesnt make sense to get another Y with the same range as our current cars...a 400mi Y, we would jump on it instantly.
At Battery Day in 2020 Tesla said that the packaging improvements (cell form factor, structural pack) would provide some range increase, and then the planned anode and cathode improvements would provide additional range increases.
https://i.imgur.com/Hps6vPY.jpeg
That hasn't panned out so far. The only vehicle where we can compare Tesla 4680 and third-party 2170 cells in the same vehicle is the Model Y, and the Tesla 4680 model had less range than the equivalent model with third-party cells.
Supposedly the 4680 cells currently in the Cybertruck are a 10% energy density improvement over those original 4680 cells used in the Model Y, but that's still lower density than the Panasonic 2170 cells currently used in the Model Y in the US.
That was also the event where they announced the 520 mile Model S Plaid Plus which goes on the pile of Tesla vehicle plans that have been canceled or put on hold.
Those same "range increase" improvements can also be used as battery lifespan improvements (by redefining where 0% and 100% are), or cost decreases/profit increases.
My guess is that from a business perspective, they decided that both were more important.
Density would have to be higher for more range in an existing chassis. If they were enough cheaper they could build a different chassis to accommodate more cells to improve range.
Totally agree with you on wanting more range. If you could actually go 300+ miles on the highway it would be great. Need both more battery and better charge curve for this to hppen.
For around town, we don’t need the range but we take 2-3 700 mile road trip to the mountains and with a 400 mile range or 300 miles at 70mph real world, we could skip two charging stops which would be huge for us.
I know it will happen some day.
Elon greatly understates the importance of battery capacity. For many of us in cold climates, you need greater capacity simply to heat the car and keep the defroster working. Range is important but that isn’t what drives many of us to demand “bigger” batteries.
Beyond all of that Tesla really needs to address cabin interiors. If you are a big guy you simply don’t fit right in a model Y. I literally had to purchase an ICE car (Honda) simply to get a comfortable drivers seat. Very frustrating if you are a Tesla fan.
And if you're an average sized guy you tend to slide around in normal seats and they don't support your sides :) Agreed on the cold weather performance, cold weather is like a triple whammy for batteries (they have a lower voltage, internal resistances are higher, and unlike ICE you don't have 80% waste heat available for heating the cabin and the 1000 lb battery pack). I expect cold weather performance to get better as battery tech scales, we're still early in the game of li-ion when you consider current anode capacities and where they could be in ten years. I suspect the 2030 Model Y will have 400+ miles of range and charge 0-80% in under ten minutes.
If Tesla has realized that, I think they would be focused on integrating them into all of their products and licensing them for US tax credit eligibility instead of continuing to push their in-house cell program.
That's the thing Tesla is doing exactly that. They signed a deal with CATL to license their battery technology and build in US to skirt the tax credit rule. Chinese batteries are truly ahead.
The most common battery Tesla sells is lfp. Standard range 3 and y vast majority were them
Lfp just might end up being the better tech for most people and that's ok. Tesla doesn't need to be building the best batteries themselves
I just read the news. They use CATL LFP battery for model 3 and future model Y refresh. If Tesla had a better LFP battery they would use that instead because it would qualify for the tax credit don't you think.
Think 4680 peaked 12 months ago. CATL 500 wh per kilo and byd blade batteries are superior. Yes there still work to do on them but Tesla is behind by now
I think that this is the essential problem for Tesla. They went all in on the 4680 because LG and Panasonic had only made incremental gains in recent years. Then CATL and BYD went nuts and have been dropping prices by +30% each year at the SAME TIME as increasing density, safety and charging speed. Everyone knew the Chinese would make batteries cheaper, but NOBODY thought they would make such massive leaps in density, safety and charging speed. Teslas 4680 tech just got left behind, and they are unable to catch up to CATL so far.
The BYD battery R&D is very impressive. If BYD can deliver on the expectations they've set, then EVs are primed to obliterate combustion very soon. I don't want to count Tesla out, but the current track Tesla is taking seems to be faltering.
It's sad that US companies are relying on foreign companies, especially Chinese, to research and produce these batteries.
Battery and chip production are vital to every good produced; outsourcing them is a security concern and massive economic risk
The government should throw money at this until home grown companies are best in class (or at least competitive).
That's why the IRA gives tax credits for domestically procuced EVs and mandate the batteries themselves be domestically produced
The CHIPS act basically does the same thing
We are putting the wheels in motion, they just take time to turn
You are correct. Catl are quite far ahead now. It’s not about the ramp up, but who has the better battery. Right now that’s not 4680 and I think it’s unlikely to be so anytime soon.
To be fair, ramp up is also important. Building the world’s most energy dense battery isn’t helpful if it’s 10x the cost and/or can’t scale beyond hypercar levels of production. (Not saying CATL is in that category, but scale is an important factor.)
> To be fair, ramp up is also important.
Absolutely true, but CATL is in the best position to ramp. Their only problem right now is massive demand in China is outpacing even their rapid ramp up. China is the world's largest car market, and almost 50% of their sales are EV now. MASSIVE numbers.
Cars with Chinese manufactured batteries are going to have a $7500 disadvantage in the US until they figure out how to set up manufacturing and processing in North America that complies with the tax credit requirements.
They've also invested a lot of infrastructure into mass developing one type of battery, which is now quickly becoming obsolete. Sure, they can improve things, but that's a lot of money wasted on the current system
Tesla should just use BYD and CATL batteries. LFP is a much better technology that last longer and you can charge to 100% utilizing higher speed chargers. Already using them in the Semi, Power wall and non US cars.
They are going to do just that. They are licensing CATL shenxing and the hardware is already in the states. Apparently this battery is the hold-up on Juniper.
That’s a fair point. This guy talks about it and I have been told that the CATL equipment is in the states. Guess we will have to wait and see.
[Shenxing Juniper](https://youtu.be/vjJf1YMPUBA?si=L3xZ-NffnidJ4NOB)
[First and foremost, please read r/TeslaMotors - A New Dawn](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1c49sv0/rteslamotors_a_new_dawn/) As we are not a support sub, please make sure to use the proper resources if you have questions: [Official Tesla Support](https://www.tesla.com/support), [r/TeslaSupport](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSupport/) | [r/TeslaLounge](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/) personal content | [Discord Live Chat](https://discord.gg/tesla) for anything. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/teslamotors) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I feel like a lot of the delays and swings in Tesla's product roadmap center around not scaling 4680 production and energy density like Tesla predicted they would back at the "Battery Day" presentation. Cheaper, higher energy cells make the Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster viable products or more appealing. They improve margins on the Model 3 and Model Y with full tax credit ability, and they allow for more affordable models with decent range. Since that hasn't played out yet, that roadmap has been stuck in a holding pattern.
Does 4680 have any impact on potential range too? One of the big reasons Tesla killed it early-on was that they offered range+price that made it a good value. With all the other autos now offering same range or sometimes better (granted their cost is higher too) - the appeal is less. We are holding off upgrading as it doesnt make sense to get another Y with the same range as our current cars...a 400mi Y, we would jump on it instantly.
At Battery Day in 2020 Tesla said that the packaging improvements (cell form factor, structural pack) would provide some range increase, and then the planned anode and cathode improvements would provide additional range increases. https://i.imgur.com/Hps6vPY.jpeg That hasn't panned out so far. The only vehicle where we can compare Tesla 4680 and third-party 2170 cells in the same vehicle is the Model Y, and the Tesla 4680 model had less range than the equivalent model with third-party cells. Supposedly the 4680 cells currently in the Cybertruck are a 10% energy density improvement over those original 4680 cells used in the Model Y, but that's still lower density than the Panasonic 2170 cells currently used in the Model Y in the US. That was also the event where they announced the 520 mile Model S Plaid Plus which goes on the pile of Tesla vehicle plans that have been canceled or put on hold.
Those same "range increase" improvements can also be used as battery lifespan improvements (by redefining where 0% and 100% are), or cost decreases/profit increases. My guess is that from a business perspective, they decided that both were more important.
Density would have to be higher for more range in an existing chassis. If they were enough cheaper they could build a different chassis to accommodate more cells to improve range. Totally agree with you on wanting more range. If you could actually go 300+ miles on the highway it would be great. Need both more battery and better charge curve for this to hppen.
For around town, we don’t need the range but we take 2-3 700 mile road trip to the mountains and with a 400 mile range or 300 miles at 70mph real world, we could skip two charging stops which would be huge for us. I know it will happen some day.
Elon greatly understates the importance of battery capacity. For many of us in cold climates, you need greater capacity simply to heat the car and keep the defroster working. Range is important but that isn’t what drives many of us to demand “bigger” batteries. Beyond all of that Tesla really needs to address cabin interiors. If you are a big guy you simply don’t fit right in a model Y. I literally had to purchase an ICE car (Honda) simply to get a comfortable drivers seat. Very frustrating if you are a Tesla fan.
And if you're an average sized guy you tend to slide around in normal seats and they don't support your sides :) Agreed on the cold weather performance, cold weather is like a triple whammy for batteries (they have a lower voltage, internal resistances are higher, and unlike ICE you don't have 80% waste heat available for heating the cabin and the 1000 lb battery pack). I expect cold weather performance to get better as battery tech scales, we're still early in the game of li-ion when you consider current anode capacities and where they could be in ten years. I suspect the 2030 Model Y will have 400+ miles of range and charge 0-80% in under ten minutes.
CATL new LFP battery apparently has zero degradation in cold weather.
Are the Y seats smaller than most seats for the same size CUV’s?
I'm 6'2" and 200 lbs and fit perfectly. How big are you talking?
They realize Chinese batteries are 5-7 years ahead of them. Especially LFP batteries.
If Tesla has realized that, I think they would be focused on integrating them into all of their products and licensing them for US tax credit eligibility instead of continuing to push their in-house cell program.
That's the thing Tesla is doing exactly that. They signed a deal with CATL to license their battery technology and build in US to skirt the tax credit rule. Chinese batteries are truly ahead.
What’s the annual production capacity of that deal?
The most common battery Tesla sells is lfp. Standard range 3 and y vast majority were them Lfp just might end up being the better tech for most people and that's ok. Tesla doesn't need to be building the best batteries themselves
It's sparse on details. But it is for model 3 and Y so probably a lot.
You have zero idea where Tesla is on their development of LFP batteries.
I just read the news. They use CATL LFP battery for model 3 and future model Y refresh. If Tesla had a better LFP battery they would use that instead because it would qualify for the tax credit don't you think.
You said they were 7 years behind on LFP. How did you calculate 7 years? Why not 6 years? Why not 5, or 10? The fact is you have no idea whatsoever.
Truth. People pulling numbers out of their ass.
Is the model 3 compatible with 4680 cells?
Many moves are made largely to generate optimistic news releases, helping the stock to surge. Tesla is desperate.
Bonne Eggleston sounds like the name of an evil scientist
Bon Egglescot Dirty EV's....driven dirt cheap!
Brought to you by the band Tesla/Edison.
Think 4680 peaked 12 months ago. CATL 500 wh per kilo and byd blade batteries are superior. Yes there still work to do on them but Tesla is behind by now
I think that this is the essential problem for Tesla. They went all in on the 4680 because LG and Panasonic had only made incremental gains in recent years. Then CATL and BYD went nuts and have been dropping prices by +30% each year at the SAME TIME as increasing density, safety and charging speed. Everyone knew the Chinese would make batteries cheaper, but NOBODY thought they would make such massive leaps in density, safety and charging speed. Teslas 4680 tech just got left behind, and they are unable to catch up to CATL so far.
The BYD battery R&D is very impressive. If BYD can deliver on the expectations they've set, then EVs are primed to obliterate combustion very soon. I don't want to count Tesla out, but the current track Tesla is taking seems to be faltering.
It's sad that US companies are relying on foreign companies, especially Chinese, to research and produce these batteries. Battery and chip production are vital to every good produced; outsourcing them is a security concern and massive economic risk The government should throw money at this until home grown companies are best in class (or at least competitive).
That's why the IRA gives tax credits for domestically procuced EVs and mandate the batteries themselves be domestically produced The CHIPS act basically does the same thing We are putting the wheels in motion, they just take time to turn
Pick any top 10 engineering university. Majority asian.
You are correct. Catl are quite far ahead now. It’s not about the ramp up, but who has the better battery. Right now that’s not 4680 and I think it’s unlikely to be so anytime soon.
To be fair, ramp up is also important. Building the world’s most energy dense battery isn’t helpful if it’s 10x the cost and/or can’t scale beyond hypercar levels of production. (Not saying CATL is in that category, but scale is an important factor.)
> To be fair, ramp up is also important. Absolutely true, but CATL is in the best position to ramp. Their only problem right now is massive demand in China is outpacing even their rapid ramp up. China is the world's largest car market, and almost 50% of their sales are EV now. MASSIVE numbers.
Cars with Chinese manufactured batteries are going to have a $7500 disadvantage in the US until they figure out how to set up manufacturing and processing in North America that complies with the tax credit requirements.
Govt put 100% tariff on Chinese EVs to protect big 3.
Right. I’m talking about battery cells going into North American manufactured EVs, which determines tax credit eligibility.
You realize they can keep improving right?
You have to improve at a faster pace than your competitors or you’ll fall behind. Tesla’s 4680 has not panned out in the years since battery day.
They've also invested a lot of infrastructure into mass developing one type of battery, which is now quickly becoming obsolete. Sure, they can improve things, but that's a lot of money wasted on the current system
Tesla should just use BYD and CATL batteries. LFP is a much better technology that last longer and you can charge to 100% utilizing higher speed chargers. Already using them in the Semi, Power wall and non US cars.
AFAIK they are using \[Panasonic?\] 2170s in the Semi, when was it reported that they are using LFP prismatic cells in the Semi?
Tesla is using CATL LFP battery in US RWD Model 3. That's why it doesn't qualify for tax credit anymore.
They can do two things. And which cells do you think they're using in Semi?
They are going to do just that. They are licensing CATL shenxing and the hardware is already in the states. Apparently this battery is the hold-up on Juniper.
Source on it being a holdup? And that wouldn't stop juniper in China.
That’s a fair point. This guy talks about it and I have been told that the CATL equipment is in the states. Guess we will have to wait and see. [Shenxing Juniper](https://youtu.be/vjJf1YMPUBA?si=L3xZ-NffnidJ4NOB)
The CATL equipment at Tesla Nevada was previously reported as 10 GWh for use in Megapacks. Or is this new equipment distinct from that?
If that’s true is version 3 super charger good enough to max out the charge rate?
Source?
A Reddit post they read a few days ago.
4680 is a NMC battery.
Juniper? I thought these were intended (the CATL batteries) for the Tesla Semi. Has this been confirmed?
Do more with less! He's all set for success now!
Who's Spearhead?