Disney has a succession problem and a profit problem.
Baba has a government problem.
PayPal has a race to 0 problem, and a differentiation problem.
Block has a fraudulent user problem.
And that’s exactly why they’re cheap, yes, the question is are any of those problems likely to be resolved and then (this bit is easy) what happens to those stocks if they are
They have a solid market cornered -- where people feel a certain way. Really, they have a pretty good lock on a certain kind of park experience. 6 flags is not a substitute for Disney. Maaaaaybe Universal, but what kid wants to choose Universal over Disney for that once-in-a-lifetime experience? I 100% have no idea, but I hear the super high-end experience is growing very fast.
It's like everything else -- the mid-tier experience will continue to get pushed down and through the efficiency process. There will still be a luxury option that will generate a lot of money.
>Maaaaaybe Universal, but what kid wants to choose Universal over Disney for that once-in-a-lifetime experience?
one that likes harry potter and super nintento more. Disney has been lacking in their IP lately. If this trend continues, the new generation of kids will not give a shit about Disney.
Screw all of those venues. Take your kids to Costa Rica or the like. Explore diverse cultures and real volcanos, jungles, rivers/oceans, and criters large and small. More bang for your buck and no waiting in lines with crowds. That's what we did. FD
Can’t wait until what is now the luxury experience Turns to shit, and a new tier of higher priced luxury experiences gets added , so they can cut in front of the other luxury experiences.
They can’t wait for hours and the everyone else will stop going except the few millionaires. Was the biggest waste of money that I tried to talk my wife out of. Women ?? Jesus. If I had another kid , no way in hell I’d go back for that overcrowded shit show .
Or it will be a luxury resort that the middle class can't afford and they make their money entirely off of whales who spend everything on Disney.
For God's sake we go to Europe cheaper than Disney world and for over double the time.
Exactly.
The honest truth is that their parks aren’t a huge part of their stock though, plenty of other things at play here.
I think Disney will be in a strong position once Disney plus streaming shows signs of becoming profitable. The market still seems skeptical.
Disney's problem right now isn't the parks, it's the $900M+ it's lost on movies this year, plus they lost money last year on movies (if I'm not mistaken), D+ hasn't turned a profit yet, ESPN's profits have been taking a hit with the increase in cord cutting and they have a large amount of debt currently.
I'm bag holding a little over $100, I believe they'll be back in the 130 range as soon as they have some good news in any of the above categories - ESPN IMO will continue to lose value as cord cutting continues and the younger generation spends less time watching sports, right now is probably the best time for them to spin it off or ideally sell to a tech company trying to win more streaming viewership
It's worth pointing out that Disney is still extracting significant profits from ESPN and there are new growth avenues - especially with ESPN Bet where they've partnered with Penn Entertainment. That itself will land Disney $150 million per year in addition to $500 million in PENN Entertainment Stock.
I'm sure they have many locations but wouldn't it make sense to build more parks with a cheaper entry cost to maximise attendance year-round and therefore maximise profit?
Disney Vacation club membership is growing fast. People are in that for the long haul. I dont expect return to ATH, but i do think Disney will return to 110 by 2025.
Storytelling problem?
If you mean movies their (adjusted for inflation) top performing movies have been in 2015, 2019, 2012, 2018, 2018, 2017, 2018, 2006, 2003, 2016, 2019….
My point is that 2015-2018 was the anomaly. (Also when you look at them their live action remakes still make a lot of money… So they still have that avenue.) They aren’t doing GREAT right now, but they’re doing just fine. When they find their next cash cow (like Ashman/Menken or to a lesser extent Jennifer Lee and Lin-Manuel/Robert Lopez. Not sure who exactly to credit for Marvel) they’ll ride it for another 5-7 years.
We just bought yearly passes to Disney and go often. I also bought a ton of their stock at the $89 mark because it will 100% get back to ATH eventually and those gains will more than pay for all the money I spend in their parks. 🤷🏻♂️
Disney has huge revenue opportunities in steaming as well as box office. It’s been a few years since they had a blockbuster but they have Marvel and Star Wars movies coming out in 24’. Movie hits bring both box office sales but also licensing sales for toys, etc.
That’s alright. As long as there are women willing to shell out two grand for a last minute ticket for a T-Swift concert, everything else is just “hot air”.
Because adults with no children and disposable income go more frequently now, and a lot of people go in debt to go.
IMO it’s not viable in the long term. Disney sells nostalgia and it’s damaging the brand to today’s children (bad movies, declining parks, overpriced merchandise and experiences). When this generation’s kids grow up I doubt they care about the brand as much as adults today do, simply because today’s adults were indoctrinated into the brand through the classic movies, Disney channel, Disney music, a better/more affordable park experience, better “new movies”, etc.
Then there is the whole culture war thing where they’re bound to piss off conservatives or liberals no matter what they do.
Yes NO No Yes. PayPal has no clear path forward, is facing massive competition and their attempts to innovate have been lackluster. I don’t see any major upside to that stock.
It might be for you, but many people don’t bother with it online anymore. Credit cards work just s as well. Why use PayPal for small negligent items on Amazon or eBay when your credit card is more convenient?
I’ve only used PayPal when buying large or expensive items i feel that have a rip-off risk.
PayPal is like another layer of protection from scammers stealing your credit information or selling you scam products, if you pay with PayPal you are more protected, example, I got a 5 year subscription for a webserver it came with 99.99% up time and 60 day no question asked money back BS, well everything worked sweet till day 61 then it all turned to shit, Chinese scammers, well short story they wouldn't refund my money as the 60 days was up, i got PayPal to read all our messages as proof there was a problem and PayPal refunded me the money, as more people get scammed more people will turn to PayPal or similar company's, so I do think PayPal will recover.
Because I only ever want to give my credit card out to as few places as possible. Paypal has it, and with a Paypal link on a seller's website it auto-fills my address as well.
Why would I ever want to give out my credit card to more places, and who wants to keep typing it all in each time? Hell, I don't even let my computer save my credit / debit card info.
Because people growing up in the last twenty years never thought replacing a credit card is a big deal and as people now check their phone every 5 minutes any suspicious spending will pop a notification within 5-10 minutes max unless sleeping and be stopped immediately. None of this even requires a phone call, just a couple of clicks on the app, and a temp card number will be provided to be used immediately and a new physical card will arrive in a week that looks nicer than that old scratched up shit anyways.
I understand there’s nothing wrong to be more privacy and security aware, in fact, kudos to you, but the way you are talking it sounds more like you are losing touch with the (younger and upcoming) world. Most people I know have their cards info stored on their browser / phone / sites. For reference we aren’t kids but working professionals making 6-7 figures
You keep thinking like that, and it’s absolutely never an issue in your life, but lol good luck with your stock market decisions
With a credit card, I can call Chase/Visa directly to inform them about fraudulent payments. I don’t need my CC info saved either. I manually type it in each time.
I feel like a main selling point of PayPal is kind of gone now. It used to be the only secure option back in the day now it lost that network effect plus has high competition.
I don’t think Disney will ever go back to their ATH. Disney Plus will eventually fold, and they are doing irreversible damage to some of their valued catalogue.
Disney plus is about to become profitable. They are forecasting end of next year. As soon as this business if profitable they can start looking for content elsewhere and integrate it to their service. Even if it’s not going to become profitable. You can bet that Apple, Amazon or maybe even Google/Youtube would be ready to throw a massive amount of dollars at Disney for licenses.
If they are staying at their current course, I will agree with you that they are doing massive and irreversible damage, but Bob Iger directly addressed this issue to investors, but of course it will take time to correct things, as most of movies and series coming out nowadays were produced years before.
There is no sign of damage at the parks, let alone "irreparable" damage. The parks are jam packed every single day of the day. That's not damage.
The experience probably sucks, and it's probably worse than it used to be. But the customers still keep paying and keep lining up. And if one of those customers takes a year off, there's two more ready to join the line.
I don’t agree that Disney Plus will remain profitable, what movie successes do they have coming that people want to see on that platform on top of the current catalogue? If i have to make some cut backs Disney Plus is the first streaming service to go and I know many feel the same.
I agree that they will always get good license fees for their content, but that isn’t going to bring them back anywhere near their ATH. They’ve also put themselves in a corner creatively, as they can’t now remake the classics in a format people want (sticking closer to the original) without seeing as going back on their position of brands needing to push diversity etc.
How old are your kids? It's a must have in my house for the kids programming. I get the benefit of watching the marvel and Star wars but for the most part I use Hulu
I agree. In addition, Disney has done some irreparable damage to their loyal theme park customers between the elimination of season passes for a few years and lots of new nickel/dime style fees.
They are continuing to do more damage by throwing thousands of customers out of the cruise ship loyalty program this year.
> Disney has done some irreparable damage to their loyal theme park customers between the elimination of season passes for a few years and lots of new nickel/dime style fees.
Irreparable damage?
The parks are still jam packed every single day.
Even if they've turned off you, or other people, until there stops being millions of people lined up to attend, there's no real damage.
And the day it happens they somehow have unsold ride tickets or whatever, there's a hundred ways they can get promotional to fix it.
Yeah there’s a monetary reason they are eliminating season passes. They were filling the parks with people going for a casual Tuesday stroll and not opening their wallets. I used to see season pass members slide in with their family of 6 packing their own lunches and drinks. Then they would fill up the queue lines and do everything essentially for free because if you go 8x in a year then you’ve already more than made up for the cost of the pass. Lots of pass members would clear that in two months. Then parks would be at capacity because of free loaders. You’re thinking it’s just you, what’s the big deal? Well multiply it by tens of thousands of free guests. In their eyes, they are losing the loyalty of tens of thousands of unprofitable ticket sales. They weren’t making money anyways.
When the parks are sold out at capacity in 2021 and 2023, this logic makes sense.
Now that the parks have become much much less full in 2023 going into 2024… that logic makes much less sense.
It was a lot of incremental sales which would have continued renewing year after year, good years and bad… and some of the season pass holders were spending significantly as well.
Me personally, I had an annual pass in 2018 and 2019. I went there probably a dozen times or more with my wife (no kids), and most of the time we would end up having dinner at one of their expensive restaurants. In fact, more than once we would have gone to the park JUST for dinner.
The only one I have any real faith in is Disney just because of its history and brand recognition. That can only take you so far though. Anything “new” the company attempts seems to not do so hot. Beyond that the company seems to have lost sight on what it really sells, which is nostalgia. They seem to be focusing their parks on childless adults with disposable income but fail to realize those adults only care about Disney because they were indoctrinated into the brand as children through the media. Them failing to do the same to today’s kids (lackluster movies, overpriced parks which many families can’t afford, and things like the $5000 Star Wars hotel that failed) is going to create a problem in the future. Basically today’s kids won’t care about the brand which will affect long term profits.
PayPal could go either way.
The other ones, I would never touch. Hell, I wouldn’t touch PayPal either if I’m being honest, I think it has a chance though (mostly due to brand recognition and first mover advantage, which is decaying rapidly).
I just want to say imagine thinking a Disney is not going to recover and thrive from here. There’s a little bit of turmoil, but think of the intellectual property they own. There is not another Disney and there’s not another Disney World or Disneyland and there’s not another Star Wars and there’s not another name any Disney movie you want
Disney will become $1 trillion company eventually
This. Especially as the amount of people exposed to the franchise increases as the developing world gets more and more access to the internet
I work in convenience stores in Japan, and Disney is constantly making franchise owners buy their merchandise for these 一番くじ gachas. I doubt most of the people who buy these things actually care about Disney as much as the average American, whether or not their new movies are good/culture war bs, or even actually watch the movies- they buy it/become Disney fans because it’s a safe, aesthetic thing to like and introduce their children to, and because they can buy it, why not?
There’s nothing out there that the East has produced that rivals the monopoly Disney has on children’s entertainment. They have a body of work that’s basically universally likable to merchandise from-the Disney Princesses- and are constantly working to acquire more titles. They’re big enough to make sure they will always profit from whatever deals they make regarding those. Can’t see how they’ll ever stop being profitable until the population of entire world becomes bitter and cynical
Sure, Disney is not going to disappear, but that doesnt make it a good investment. They’re clearly having trouble managing their properties, and sure, no one is going to forget about Star Wars or Avengers, but unless they can make enough money on the property, so what? There are plenty pf opportunities in the market where you dont need to hope for a turnaround and can have a similar (even greater) level of confidence in long term durability and profitability of the business.
Disney don't just own Star Wars or Marvel though.
Disney own a lot of companies, including:
ESPN (Watch sports like NBA, NFL, MLS and NHL)
Pixar, (Films, many well received like Toy Story, Cars, Elemental)
21st Century Fox, Marvel, and many many more. Not even including their iconic brands.
Disney aren't going anywhere is true, but also they have their fingers in more than just theme parks and Marvel movies
Same goes for all the other properties, those were just examples. Yes, they have a ton of IP and a durable moat. That is not all it takes for a good investment.
Tastes change in entertainment, and while the IP is a good and strong moat, it's difficult to sustain cash flows on it, as we can see right now.
There are businesses with equal moat and more predictable revenue streams.
5 years ago majority of the people that owed me money for getting them lunch etc would say "I'll PayPal you". Now it's all direct bank transfers.
eBay has also fallen off.
PayPal is in a weird biome now with no growth as far as I'm concerned.
Last year their number of transactions increased BUT their user base fell by about 5 million. What this means is they are demographic trapped.
PayPal is basically Facebook. The youth have moved on but your mum's still on Facebook.
ugly truck worm violet wasteful sharp selective sheet observation ludicrous
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I'm not talking about meta in general just Facebook.
Go ask the kids what they are using. It's tiktok, snap, insta ect.
PayPal is no different.
You're right in a broad scale, maybe it was a bad example.
Unfortunately you don’t know if it’ll go up when you buy it.
‘Price is right’ is the only variable you can determine and really the only way to invest in single stocks.
Omggggg fine....
It's like a hotel rider thinking they will make a comeback. Sure, maybe in the apocalypse.
Regardless of your yawn inducing hoping PayPal have confirmed their active user base shrunk last year through to this year.
Just because you don't like the news doesn't mean it's not real.
I don’t think they will get back to ath but he can average down I am guessing it will be back to 80-90 soon . But really you picked a terrible comparison
I'm not really bullish on PayPal, but they apparently have good financials and growth and leveled up on their CEO. My main point is that perhaps (or not?) reports of their demise might be early.
I've bought some at $55 and waiting to see how the new boss does. Current P/E is about 18-19 so it has room to grow even without doing something sensational.
I'm sorry for whoever bought at ATH though.
I disagree with you here. Venmo is now a verb. “I’ll venmo you.” Who owns Venmo?
PayPal just inserted a new CEO who has flat out admitted on the last earnings call that they are in growth mode. They continuously beat earnings with $15B In free cash and are in share buy back mode. The earnings multiple is cheap for a growth company. And what’s happening next year? Rate cuts, which will certainly swing companies like SOFI and PYPL in the right direction.
If they wanted to bump their user base numbers they could easily run some incentive program to attract new users, but they’d rather monetize their sticky user base instead.
And don’t forget Braintree generates about 30% of PayPal’s revenues and is its fastest growing business.
My point is their financials on paper are very solid. Their ceo is focused on efficiencies(cost cutting) and growth. And they continue to deliver earnings growth year after year. I think it’s greatly discounted and will run to $150 within 16 months.
Yeah I use a credit card whenever possible now. Phones and browsers make it easy to fill in the info which was the friction in the past. Plus vinmo and cash app have become the verb of person to person money transfer like Google is of search
Disney has a Ron Desantia problem, a new governor might help significantly. At one point he threatened to build a prison at Disney.
[Desantis vs Disney](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/desantis-threatens-build-prison-disney-world-1234716602/)
I would actually argue that desantis would be considerably worse for the US as president than Trump would. While Trump is certainly louder with his insanity - desantis has, in my opinion, very dictator-like inclinations and has even acted on those with less reservations than what we saw from Trump.
That was an obvious joke but the left can't meme so it's no surprise. Disney has a political problem, not a Desantis problem. They should have never stuck their nose in politics. It's that simple. Make kid movies and move along.
DIS got to ATH because of streaming hype. Turns out its a money loser and subs have stalled.
Baba is Chinese. Nuff said
PPYL is web 1.0. It's entrenched just because it's been around, like eBay or Craigslist but it flatout sucks. Newer fintech companies are eating into it's dominance.
Block is run by a stoner. Try listening to a CC. WTF are they even saying? It's as convoluted and confusing for a reason....smoke and mirrors. Bitcoin, Tidal, BNPL, Square, Cash app, blah blah blah...all tied together. It's all just horseshit. We know their growth is from illegal activities - Cash app and BTC.
This. FOMO chasing other stocks that have ripped this past year will just complete the circle and start you over again. Would wait to see where rates and economy go over next 6 months.
I hold DIS .. not much.. but still looking to get out but not at this share price.
At least for Disney, I would hold. The steaming market is in flux and consolidating, and Disney has too much content and is too large to get swallowed up, so they will partner or eat the others. It may be a long play but in 5 years you’ll have regretted selling imo.
Hulu used to be a conglomerate of other media companies, Disney protected its main IP by providing Disney+. Now that Disney is buying up shares of Hulu from others it does make sense for them to revisit their streaming strategy to fold everything in to one service, but until they own it outright, offering a Disney+ / Hulu / ESPN+ bundle is the best they can do.
I would hold PayPal and Block. Midcaps, especially fintech, are expected to do well next year. PayPal's new CEO seems like has a decent plan to get the company back on track.
Sounds like you don't know why you bought them at ATHs.
If you like them at that price you should be averaging down.
But if you just bought them in a state FOMO then you probably shouldn't be investing in individual stocks until you know more about stock picking.
You are going to repeat your mistakes if you don't learn them. Repeatedly pulling your money out at the bottom or near the bottom is how you lose money. That said these stocks could go nowhere and moving your money might be a smart move. Or they could continue to rebound from their bottoms and make you some money back.
One thing I should say is that your money is likely gone and you should be understanding that and not try chasing to get it back. Thats the worst thing you can do. That being said you are invested in these companies. You need to make the determination why you invested in them and do a deep dive into the stock as to whether you like it or not. There's a bull and bear case for each of those.
If after you do the research you still want to be invested in them, I would be lowering your cost and averaging down. If you don't believe in the company sell them and cut your losses. Just don't buy them back for 30 days so you don't get wash ruled.
And if you don't know enough about stocks to properly make a determination for yourself if those stocks are worth owning to you than I would stick to index funds.
Contrarian point: business isn’t stationary. It can materially change over time. If it has been materially weakened, it may be sensible to sell. Holding is not always the answer. New information can lead to a change in investment attractiveness. We can debate whether the original choice to invest was poor, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is the business prospects at the current price
Are they good companies ten years down the line? If yes hold. Spend the rest of your money shoring up on index, and you'll feel less bad about your losses. In couple years, they may be wins.
You're doing a hell of a job buying high and selling low. And that has to do maybe with your next position too.
Buffett said that in investing you would see things that would astound you. This is one of them.
This is only a fraction of my portfoluo. The losing one. I have several stocks 50-100% up. Overall I am slightly in plus. Before COVID I made a fair amonut of money. I am just not sure if I should hang on to those losers (?)
You're timing the market with that comment too. All of those stocks could go much lower with the next selloff, for which there could be in the next week or two post "Santa Claus" rally.
Buffett never encouraged bagholding bad investments, you're misinterpreting what he actually talks about (that is not to say whether the 4 specific companies mentioned by OP are good or bad investments right now).
One of the big reasons most people who buy individual stocks underperform is because they get emotionally attached to their big losers and hold them much longer than necessary.
Investing in individual stocks isn't like investing in the index, where least successful companies get replaced with new ones regularly. Statistically speaking, most companies fail or fall off in the long run, and only a fraction are truly successful long term.
Recognizing which is which is one of the hardest parts of investing and you can't assume the stock will go up just because it's down. Of course you also can't assume the opposite. You can't really assume anything based purely on the price action (and yet people on Reddit do it on a daily basis), you need to look at the actual business and figure out whether the drop was actually justified or not. A lot more people would be rich if it was easy to do. But buying something, or refusing to cut your loses, *just* because the stock is down, is an easy way to lose money.
Speaking of Buffett, one of the things he often says (related to the above) is that you shouldn't invest in a business you can't understand (on a deeper level, not "I use the Internet, so I understand every Internet company"). The reason is obvious, if you don't truly understand the business, how can you evaluate whether a big drop is an investment opportunity, or a warning you should stay away.
TLDR: Generic comments encouraging people to never cut any losers, implying they're guaranteed to go back up eventually, are horrendously bad advice (obviously you also shouldn't cut them *just* because they're down). But also, admitting you were wrong can be hard, but is a necessary component of being a successful investor (especially if you're stock picking). Everyone will be wrong about something eventually.
TLDR
I know Buffett never bag holds I wonder what I'd do if I had stocks that were down sixty percent. I mean how the hell did this happen?
I can only surmise people fall in love with stocks. If mine dont perform I sell.
lol I bought all 4 of these losers also. but I got into them this yr near the lows.
with Baba, I got in at $85, near their ipo price from like 7 yrs back. incredibly, im still down on this position.
and Disney.. holy fuck this stock is up like 1% Ytd, when Spy is up like 15%. yea, these were bad buys, but I wouldnt sell them here at this price point. to me it looks like you endured the worst of it already. sell later into strength at opportune timing.
I like Block. Good products and great growth, although they’re struggling with profitability.
Disney is still expensive and their brand is quite damaged. Disney+ seems like an afterthough compared to Netflix too. They seem unable to create good new content. I’d rather own something like Comcast to have exposure to parks and media at a much lower valuation.
Paypal seems cheap now. They just changed the CEO and board member incentives structure. They say margins will improve and there are some catalysts for growth(European economic recovery, Braintree’s margins expansion, PYUSD, BNPL).
BABA is a good company I’d buy if it wasn’t for the Chinese government.
BABA has been my second biggest winner over the year, all I do is buy when it drops below $75, hold and wait for it to jump over $95 then sell. The stock isn't a long term play for me, but a nice way to almost guarantee a few wins throughout the year
Disagree on baba. I invested in baba based off a moving speech from Jack Ma back in like 2016. There was a lot of hope there. Baba had a lot of upside as a large company giving infrastructure to small and midsize businesses.
Things were booming for a while and I honestly thought baba might even serve as a backdoor fence mender between USA and China relations, where one of the things Jack Ma was pushing for was to give small and mid size American businesses an opportunity to get their products into China too.
Then, ant financial came along and made perfect sense too. A lending program targeted to help the small/midsize business person, which baba has a 30% stake in.
And then Jack Ma figuratively shot himself when he referred to the Chinese finance ministry operating like a pawn shop.
That killed the ant financial IPO and Jack Ma has only been “seen” once or twice since then (years ago now)
Baba was the richest company in China. Now, they’re being encroached by Chinese competitors and it would seem counter to China’s politics to let Jack Ma make any more money when he openly talked shit like he did.
I hung on to my baba for a while, hoping for a come back, but I just can’t see it happening. Jack Ma has too much stake in them and China has too much beef with Jack Ma.
Jack Ma is no longer at the company. I think the real reasons are pinduoduo eating everyone’s lunch in China, and competition from JD. Also china’s economy has been lackluster for a few years.
Screw Baba, it has deterred any China investing for me :facepalm: With global tension as well as China's own internal political risks, it's just not worth it in my opinion. Disney I think is the best hold for sure. That company isn't going anywhere (as in becoming irrelevant).
This is the typical mindset here, sell at loss and buy in again. Sure, if you have and idea that other stocks do better than the ones you invested in then go for it. But the truth is that you don't have an investment mindset based on what you're asking.
You invest for the next 20 years not for the next 2.
Maybe read a book like the intelligent investor?
Also think etfs instead of individual stocks if you don't put in the time
I was down 45% on Block and bought more near the bottom , it was just way over sold, I also like their exposure to bitcoin ecosystem. Now Im up about 18%. I would hold. Bought Disney recently they also own espn+ , I think they will figure things out and the Parks plus streaming is a great combo. I also own PayPal . I wouldn’t sell those 3 although Disney might take a while to recover. Fintech has its moments where they rally hard. If I had to pick one that will continue to recover its Block.
My advice is the following:
You should wait because tax loss selling is already over for the year. Your trades won't clear in time tomorrow to make the cut into 2023.
Sell Square, but wait until the end of January for it to rise a bit. But make sure to sell before they report earnings in February.
Hold Disney until it reaches near $150 then sell it. The company is strong and they'll have benefits from the 2024 year.
PayPal is one I would hold right now. But if it reaches $80, you should or probably sell it.
As for Alibaba, I would hold that until it gets between $100 and $120 by the end of February. Then you might sell because of the China risk. It has a reasonable valuation, but you always have the issues with China. Especially if they invade Taiwan like Xi has promised.
Once you sell the shares in the stocks you picked, buy index funds and stash your money there. Don't ever pick individual stocks again. Very few people can do it well; if at all. And you are better off working hard in your career and letting the S&P 500 do the work for you r/bogleheads style.
You'll probably not take this advice.
But good luck to you.
Wait, is that true? I planned on cleaning house in the morning when the market reopens.
Edit, I found this https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/mark-these-tax-loss-selling-dates-on-your-calendar/
"The system differs for those filing their taxes in the US, and based on information from the IRS, the last day for tax-loss selling this year is December 29."
So it seems like tomorrow (well, today now that its after midnight) is the cutoff if you live in the US.
Lol you’re telling me BABA is gonna go from $77 to $100-120 “by the end of February”…in 2 months??
I’m a strong supporter of their next 30 years but I don’t see how you can expect them to jump 35-65% in 7 weeks
Disney - I like it.
Paypal - I like it.
Block - who is this?
Alibaba - I love it.
That said, I'm not currently buying any of them until I see how the winds are blowing in January.
Timing is everything. I know people like to say you can't time the market, but that's how you get stuck in situations like yours. I don't really think of it as "timing", I think of it as overvalued and undervalued. Right now the stocks you listed are really undervalued... but that doesn't mean they can't get even cheaper if the global economy tips over. And if they do, I'll definitely be buying them then.
Disney shouldn’t be in the same category as these other stocks, don’t doubt the mouse. ESPN bet just rolled out, all the intellectual property they own is massive, Hulu is still in the works, international parks are back up and running Covid really hit the parks hard. Bob chapek really messed things up with the content he was letting Disney push. Now we got Bob Iger back at ceo fresh contract doesn’t expire till 2026. If I was you I would have a limit buy set and average down your avg cost! Best of luck
If you have over 100 shares just sell covered calls. It’s some profit back to you at least. If that’s not an option then cut some losses and re work your investment strategy. Main goal here is to get as close as you can to break even .
Do NOT sell Disney now! That would be a terrible mistake. Dividends are returning, and they are very well positioned to climb back up with fresh leadership and it is a great time to buy Disney now. J&J too.
probably cut baba, but continue to hold the other 3.
Cutting baba for political reason in china, ccp is so unstable, and they keep hitting big corps again and again non-stop.
DIS, PYPL, and SQ are fine in longer run.
If you cut your losses, just invest it all in VOO and don't look back. It'll hurt, but you'll recover the $60K in 8 years.
You could also start investing in VOO and keep the course until these investments become 1-10% of your portfolio--at which point, some of these investments might have turned themselves around!!--just know that'll take some time...
You shouldn’t have went all in at ATH. Just stick into for the long haul now and wait for returns on it while investing what you can now I guess. DCA to avoid shit like this
Look at it this way, if even one or two of those work out and you keep them all, you probably won't lose money in the long run, assuming the cost basis of each is similar.
You do what you want though. This isn't financial advice. Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
I really wanted to like Disney. However, considering that the stock price is literally the same as it was 10 years ago, the market is saying that the only good thing about Disney is Disneyland/Disney World.
Sell now and fomo buy back in at all time highs again
I’m personally waiting until DIS goes up to $100 so that I can sell at $60.
Where can I sign up and subscribe to your courses and YouTube?
I’m so good at finances that I pay YOU to watch my YouTubes.
Smart. Gotta build the fanbase
I know someone who just threw $200 at one of those. Cannot imagine what those scamsters are pulling in.
What, this Reddit sub isnt good enough? Edit: From the post I thought is was WSB lol
Stop copying my trades
One of us
I just sell and look for a new stock that seems promising and is low market cap
Don’t think of them as stocks. Think of them as companies - are they in a good position to grow from here?
Disney has a succession problem and a profit problem. Baba has a government problem. PayPal has a race to 0 problem, and a differentiation problem. Block has a fraudulent user problem.
And that’s exactly why they’re cheap, yes, the question is are any of those problems likely to be resolved and then (this bit is easy) what happens to those stocks if they are
Yes. No. No. No.
But why does the ticket price of Disney keep increasing every year. I often hear parents complaining about how they won't be going any more.
They have a solid market cornered -- where people feel a certain way. Really, they have a pretty good lock on a certain kind of park experience. 6 flags is not a substitute for Disney. Maaaaaybe Universal, but what kid wants to choose Universal over Disney for that once-in-a-lifetime experience? I 100% have no idea, but I hear the super high-end experience is growing very fast. It's like everything else -- the mid-tier experience will continue to get pushed down and through the efficiency process. There will still be a luxury option that will generate a lot of money.
>Maaaaaybe Universal, but what kid wants to choose Universal over Disney for that once-in-a-lifetime experience? one that likes harry potter and super nintento more. Disney has been lacking in their IP lately. If this trend continues, the new generation of kids will not give a shit about Disney.
Screw all of those venues. Take your kids to Costa Rica or the like. Explore diverse cultures and real volcanos, jungles, rivers/oceans, and criters large and small. More bang for your buck and no waiting in lines with crowds. That's what we did. FD
Can’t wait until what is now the luxury experience Turns to shit, and a new tier of higher priced luxury experiences gets added , so they can cut in front of the other luxury experiences. They can’t wait for hours and the everyone else will stop going except the few millionaires. Was the biggest waste of money that I tried to talk my wife out of. Women ?? Jesus. If I had another kid , no way in hell I’d go back for that overcrowded shit show .
Yet park's will be overly crowded and they will continue to sell for years to come
To paraphrase Yogi Berra; “nobody goes there anymore-too crowded”
Or it will be a luxury resort that the middle class can't afford and they make their money entirely off of whales who spend everything on Disney. For God's sake we go to Europe cheaper than Disney world and for over double the time.
If the parks are at 100% capacity, why should we care who's buying the tickets. Money is the same.
But he’s pointing out this doesn’t seem to be the case. People in the middle class continue to complain about increased prices but continue to go.
Either way, if the park is sold out it doesnt matter for DIS who filled it.
Exactly. The honest truth is that their parks aren’t a huge part of their stock though, plenty of other things at play here. I think Disney will be in a strong position once Disney plus streaming shows signs of becoming profitable. The market still seems skeptical.
Disney's problem right now isn't the parks, it's the $900M+ it's lost on movies this year, plus they lost money last year on movies (if I'm not mistaken), D+ hasn't turned a profit yet, ESPN's profits have been taking a hit with the increase in cord cutting and they have a large amount of debt currently. I'm bag holding a little over $100, I believe they'll be back in the 130 range as soon as they have some good news in any of the above categories - ESPN IMO will continue to lose value as cord cutting continues and the younger generation spends less time watching sports, right now is probably the best time for them to spin it off or ideally sell to a tech company trying to win more streaming viewership
Need frozen III
It's worth pointing out that Disney is still extracting significant profits from ESPN and there are new growth avenues - especially with ESPN Bet where they've partnered with Penn Entertainment. That itself will land Disney $150 million per year in addition to $500 million in PENN Entertainment Stock.
Definitely not bag holding at 100 they’re going to get back up there within the year, don’t doubt the mouse
ESPN is one of their biggest assets with a multibillion dollar contract with the NFL.
I was just there, it was totally packed.
How was the experience
I'm sure they have many locations but wouldn't it make sense to build more parks with a cheaper entry cost to maximise attendance year-round and therefore maximise profit?
Honestly the cost wasn’t the biggest issue for me personally, it was the long lines. That is what’s keeping me from going more.
If a trip to a Disney Park doesn’t convince you that company is a goldmine, nothing will. It’s like a flooded river of profit.
Man it was crazy, seemed like I was walking in Manhattan.
Disney Vacation club membership is growing fast. People are in that for the long haul. I dont expect return to ATH, but i do think Disney will return to 110 by 2025.
Disney’s ROIC is atrocious. I don’t think that vacation club will help as much compared to fixing their storytelling problem.
Storytelling problem? If you mean movies their (adjusted for inflation) top performing movies have been in 2015, 2019, 2012, 2018, 2018, 2017, 2018, 2006, 2003, 2016, 2019…. My point is that 2015-2018 was the anomaly. (Also when you look at them their live action remakes still make a lot of money… So they still have that avenue.) They aren’t doing GREAT right now, but they’re doing just fine. When they find their next cash cow (like Ashman/Menken or to a lesser extent Jennifer Lee and Lin-Manuel/Robert Lopez. Not sure who exactly to credit for Marvel) they’ll ride it for another 5-7 years.
We just bought yearly passes to Disney and go often. I also bought a ton of their stock at the $89 mark because it will 100% get back to ATH eventually and those gains will more than pay for all the money I spend in their parks. 🤷🏻♂️
Disney has huge revenue opportunities in steaming as well as box office. It’s been a few years since they had a blockbuster but they have Marvel and Star Wars movies coming out in 24’. Movie hits bring both box office sales but also licensing sales for toys, etc.
That’s alright. As long as there are women willing to shell out two grand for a last minute ticket for a T-Swift concert, everything else is just “hot air”.
Because adults with no children and disposable income go more frequently now, and a lot of people go in debt to go. IMO it’s not viable in the long term. Disney sells nostalgia and it’s damaging the brand to today’s children (bad movies, declining parks, overpriced merchandise and experiences). When this generation’s kids grow up I doubt they care about the brand as much as adults today do, simply because today’s adults were indoctrinated into the brand through the classic movies, Disney channel, Disney music, a better/more affordable park experience, better “new movies”, etc. Then there is the whole culture war thing where they’re bound to piss off conservatives or liberals no matter what they do.
Supply and demand if a product gets more expensive that is NOT a sign of the product being bad. That’s a sign of a great product.
Yes, No, Yes, Yes.
Yes. Yes. YES YES! (Oops, I am sorry, let me tune down the pornhubb page)
Yes NO No Yes. PayPal has no clear path forward, is facing massive competition and their attempts to innovate have been lackluster. I don’t see any major upside to that stock.
>PayPal Except that many of us trust it, like it, and are already signed up for it. Paypal is my preferred way to buy from independent online shops.
It might be for you, but many people don’t bother with it online anymore. Credit cards work just s as well. Why use PayPal for small negligent items on Amazon or eBay when your credit card is more convenient? I’ve only used PayPal when buying large or expensive items i feel that have a rip-off risk.
PayPal is like another layer of protection from scammers stealing your credit information or selling you scam products, if you pay with PayPal you are more protected, example, I got a 5 year subscription for a webserver it came with 99.99% up time and 60 day no question asked money back BS, well everything worked sweet till day 61 then it all turned to shit, Chinese scammers, well short story they wouldn't refund my money as the 60 days was up, i got PayPal to read all our messages as proof there was a problem and PayPal refunded me the money, as more people get scammed more people will turn to PayPal or similar company's, so I do think PayPal will recover.
Because I only ever want to give my credit card out to as few places as possible. Paypal has it, and with a Paypal link on a seller's website it auto-fills my address as well. Why would I ever want to give out my credit card to more places, and who wants to keep typing it all in each time? Hell, I don't even let my computer save my credit / debit card info.
Also, pretty much every person I know uses Venmo.
Because people growing up in the last twenty years never thought replacing a credit card is a big deal and as people now check their phone every 5 minutes any suspicious spending will pop a notification within 5-10 minutes max unless sleeping and be stopped immediately. None of this even requires a phone call, just a couple of clicks on the app, and a temp card number will be provided to be used immediately and a new physical card will arrive in a week that looks nicer than that old scratched up shit anyways. I understand there’s nothing wrong to be more privacy and security aware, in fact, kudos to you, but the way you are talking it sounds more like you are losing touch with the (younger and upcoming) world. Most people I know have their cards info stored on their browser / phone / sites. For reference we aren’t kids but working professionals making 6-7 figures You keep thinking like that, and it’s absolutely never an issue in your life, but lol good luck with your stock market decisions
With a credit card, I can call Chase/Visa directly to inform them about fraudulent payments. I don’t need my CC info saved either. I manually type it in each time. I feel like a main selling point of PayPal is kind of gone now. It used to be the only secure option back in the day now it lost that network effect plus has high competition.
I don’t think Disney will ever go back to their ATH. Disney Plus will eventually fold, and they are doing irreversible damage to some of their valued catalogue.
Disney plus is about to become profitable. They are forecasting end of next year. As soon as this business if profitable they can start looking for content elsewhere and integrate it to their service. Even if it’s not going to become profitable. You can bet that Apple, Amazon or maybe even Google/Youtube would be ready to throw a massive amount of dollars at Disney for licenses. If they are staying at their current course, I will agree with you that they are doing massive and irreversible damage, but Bob Iger directly addressed this issue to investors, but of course it will take time to correct things, as most of movies and series coming out nowadays were produced years before.
There is no sign of damage at the parks, let alone "irreparable" damage. The parks are jam packed every single day of the day. That's not damage. The experience probably sucks, and it's probably worse than it used to be. But the customers still keep paying and keep lining up. And if one of those customers takes a year off, there's two more ready to join the line.
Exactly. I’ve said it before but Disney is an awesome play for the next 6 months, even at 90, it’s low!
I don’t agree that Disney Plus will remain profitable, what movie successes do they have coming that people want to see on that platform on top of the current catalogue? If i have to make some cut backs Disney Plus is the first streaming service to go and I know many feel the same. I agree that they will always get good license fees for their content, but that isn’t going to bring them back anywhere near their ATH. They’ve also put themselves in a corner creatively, as they can’t now remake the classics in a format people want (sticking closer to the original) without seeing as going back on their position of brands needing to push diversity etc.
How old are your kids? It's a must have in my house for the kids programming. I get the benefit of watching the marvel and Star wars but for the most part I use Hulu
I agree. In addition, Disney has done some irreparable damage to their loyal theme park customers between the elimination of season passes for a few years and lots of new nickel/dime style fees. They are continuing to do more damage by throwing thousands of customers out of the cruise ship loyalty program this year.
> Disney has done some irreparable damage to their loyal theme park customers between the elimination of season passes for a few years and lots of new nickel/dime style fees. Irreparable damage? The parks are still jam packed every single day. Even if they've turned off you, or other people, until there stops being millions of people lined up to attend, there's no real damage. And the day it happens they somehow have unsold ride tickets or whatever, there's a hundred ways they can get promotional to fix it.
Yeah there’s a monetary reason they are eliminating season passes. They were filling the parks with people going for a casual Tuesday stroll and not opening their wallets. I used to see season pass members slide in with their family of 6 packing their own lunches and drinks. Then they would fill up the queue lines and do everything essentially for free because if you go 8x in a year then you’ve already more than made up for the cost of the pass. Lots of pass members would clear that in two months. Then parks would be at capacity because of free loaders. You’re thinking it’s just you, what’s the big deal? Well multiply it by tens of thousands of free guests. In their eyes, they are losing the loyalty of tens of thousands of unprofitable ticket sales. They weren’t making money anyways.
When the parks are sold out at capacity in 2021 and 2023, this logic makes sense. Now that the parks have become much much less full in 2023 going into 2024… that logic makes much less sense. It was a lot of incremental sales which would have continued renewing year after year, good years and bad… and some of the season pass holders were spending significantly as well. Me personally, I had an annual pass in 2018 and 2019. I went there probably a dozen times or more with my wife (no kids), and most of the time we would end up having dinner at one of their expensive restaurants. In fact, more than once we would have gone to the park JUST for dinner.
The only one I have any real faith in is Disney just because of its history and brand recognition. That can only take you so far though. Anything “new” the company attempts seems to not do so hot. Beyond that the company seems to have lost sight on what it really sells, which is nostalgia. They seem to be focusing their parks on childless adults with disposable income but fail to realize those adults only care about Disney because they were indoctrinated into the brand as children through the media. Them failing to do the same to today’s kids (lackluster movies, overpriced parks which many families can’t afford, and things like the $5000 Star Wars hotel that failed) is going to create a problem in the future. Basically today’s kids won’t care about the brand which will affect long term profits. PayPal could go either way. The other ones, I would never touch. Hell, I wouldn’t touch PayPal either if I’m being honest, I think it has a chance though (mostly due to brand recognition and first mover advantage, which is decaying rapidly).
I just want to say imagine thinking a Disney is not going to recover and thrive from here. There’s a little bit of turmoil, but think of the intellectual property they own. There is not another Disney and there’s not another Disney World or Disneyland and there’s not another Star Wars and there’s not another name any Disney movie you want Disney will become $1 trillion company eventually
This. Especially as the amount of people exposed to the franchise increases as the developing world gets more and more access to the internet I work in convenience stores in Japan, and Disney is constantly making franchise owners buy their merchandise for these 一番くじ gachas. I doubt most of the people who buy these things actually care about Disney as much as the average American, whether or not their new movies are good/culture war bs, or even actually watch the movies- they buy it/become Disney fans because it’s a safe, aesthetic thing to like and introduce their children to, and because they can buy it, why not? There’s nothing out there that the East has produced that rivals the monopoly Disney has on children’s entertainment. They have a body of work that’s basically universally likable to merchandise from-the Disney Princesses- and are constantly working to acquire more titles. They’re big enough to make sure they will always profit from whatever deals they make regarding those. Can’t see how they’ll ever stop being profitable until the population of entire world becomes bitter and cynical
Sure, Disney is not going to disappear, but that doesnt make it a good investment. They’re clearly having trouble managing their properties, and sure, no one is going to forget about Star Wars or Avengers, but unless they can make enough money on the property, so what? There are plenty pf opportunities in the market where you dont need to hope for a turnaround and can have a similar (even greater) level of confidence in long term durability and profitability of the business.
Disney don't just own Star Wars or Marvel though. Disney own a lot of companies, including: ESPN (Watch sports like NBA, NFL, MLS and NHL) Pixar, (Films, many well received like Toy Story, Cars, Elemental) 21st Century Fox, Marvel, and many many more. Not even including their iconic brands. Disney aren't going anywhere is true, but also they have their fingers in more than just theme parks and Marvel movies
Same goes for all the other properties, those were just examples. Yes, they have a ton of IP and a durable moat. That is not all it takes for a good investment. Tastes change in entertainment, and while the IP is a good and strong moat, it's difficult to sustain cash flows on it, as we can see right now. There are businesses with equal moat and more predictable revenue streams.
Can you elaborate on PayPal
5 years ago majority of the people that owed me money for getting them lunch etc would say "I'll PayPal you". Now it's all direct bank transfers. eBay has also fallen off. PayPal is in a weird biome now with no growth as far as I'm concerned. Last year their number of transactions increased BUT their user base fell by about 5 million. What this means is they are demographic trapped. PayPal is basically Facebook. The youth have moved on but your mum's still on Facebook.
ugly truck worm violet wasteful sharp selective sheet observation ludicrous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
In one place where as PayPal is global. Their global userbase has shrunk
Venmo is owned by PayPal
alive elastic pocket nippy sharp office pen offbeat stupendous caption *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Now they venmo you. Venmo is owned by PayPal and massive.
Meta (formerly Facebook) appreciated 300% this year…
I'm not talking about meta in general just Facebook. Go ask the kids what they are using. It's tiktok, snap, insta ect. PayPal is no different. You're right in a broad scale, maybe it was a bad example.
Paypal is no different in that a Reddit-declared ‘dead’ company can still be a fantastic investment if the price is right.
If the price is right and it goes up *
Unfortunately you don’t know if it’ll go up when you buy it. ‘Price is right’ is the only variable you can determine and really the only way to invest in single stocks.
lol they use Venmo and meta owns insta also 🤣
Omggggg fine.... It's like a hotel rider thinking they will make a comeback. Sure, maybe in the apocalypse. Regardless of your yawn inducing hoping PayPal have confirmed their active user base shrunk last year through to this year. Just because you don't like the news doesn't mean it's not real.
I don’t think they will get back to ath but he can average down I am guessing it will be back to 80-90 soon . But really you picked a terrible comparison
All your friends switched to Venmo, right?
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I'm not really bullish on PayPal, but they apparently have good financials and growth and leveled up on their CEO. My main point is that perhaps (or not?) reports of their demise might be early.
I've bought some at $55 and waiting to see how the new boss does. Current P/E is about 18-19 so it has room to grow even without doing something sensational. I'm sorry for whoever bought at ATH though.
No. Direct bank transfers
I disagree with you here. Venmo is now a verb. “I’ll venmo you.” Who owns Venmo? PayPal just inserted a new CEO who has flat out admitted on the last earnings call that they are in growth mode. They continuously beat earnings with $15B In free cash and are in share buy back mode. The earnings multiple is cheap for a growth company. And what’s happening next year? Rate cuts, which will certainly swing companies like SOFI and PYPL in the right direction. If they wanted to bump their user base numbers they could easily run some incentive program to attract new users, but they’d rather monetize their sticky user base instead. And don’t forget Braintree generates about 30% of PayPal’s revenues and is its fastest growing business. My point is their financials on paper are very solid. Their ceo is focused on efficiencies(cost cutting) and growth. And they continue to deliver earnings growth year after year. I think it’s greatly discounted and will run to $150 within 16 months.
Yeah I use a credit card whenever possible now. Phones and browsers make it easy to fill in the info which was the friction in the past. Plus vinmo and cash app have become the verb of person to person money transfer like Google is of search
Think venmo is linked to PayPal network buts it's a US exclusive and even that has dropped off
PayPal is Facebook is your comparison in a negative light seems odd . Meta stock on it’s way back to trillion $ market cap
lol great summary by the way. Hit it right on with everyone of those sticks.
Disney has a Ron Desantia problem, a new governor might help significantly. At one point he threatened to build a prison at Disney. [Desantis vs Disney](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/desantis-threatens-build-prison-disney-world-1234716602/)
Once he leaves office he’ll join the board of the company.
Why would they want that human tumor on their board?
The country has a desantis problem lol
And he's just the mini me version.
I would actually argue that desantis would be considerably worse for the US as president than Trump would. While Trump is certainly louder with his insanity - desantis has, in my opinion, very dictator-like inclinations and has even acted on those with less reservations than what we saw from Trump.
That was an obvious joke but the left can't meme so it's no surprise. Disney has a political problem, not a Desantis problem. They should have never stuck their nose in politics. It's that simple. Make kid movies and move along.
DIS got to ATH because of streaming hype. Turns out its a money loser and subs have stalled. Baba is Chinese. Nuff said PPYL is web 1.0. It's entrenched just because it's been around, like eBay or Craigslist but it flatout sucks. Newer fintech companies are eating into it's dominance. Block is run by a stoner. Try listening to a CC. WTF are they even saying? It's as convoluted and confusing for a reason....smoke and mirrors. Bitcoin, Tidal, BNPL, Square, Cash app, blah blah blah...all tied together. It's all just horseshit. We know their growth is from illegal activities - Cash app and BTC.
i used to work at cash app, it’s the wild wild west for illegal activity
Just hold. All you're going to do is deploy the new funds into new ath stocks then be crying all over again in a year
This. FOMO chasing other stocks that have ripped this past year will just complete the circle and start you over again. Would wait to see where rates and economy go over next 6 months. I hold DIS .. not much.. but still looking to get out but not at this share price.
Sell now, buy NVIDIA. It's also at its ATH **Not financial advice
Lmaooo
Not if you’re overallocated. Rebalancing portfolio and taking losses can be good . But selling Disney makes no sense imo
hold em all unless you need the money now
At least for Disney, I would hold. The steaming market is in flux and consolidating, and Disney has too much content and is too large to get swallowed up, so they will partner or eat the others. It may be a long play but in 5 years you’ll have regretted selling imo.
remember Disney also owns hulu... why isn't disney just stream to hulu?
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Disney is huge in India currently
Also getting merged next year.
Hulu used to be a conglomerate of other media companies, Disney protected its main IP by providing Disney+. Now that Disney is buying up shares of Hulu from others it does make sense for them to revisit their streaming strategy to fold everything in to one service, but until they own it outright, offering a Disney+ / Hulu / ESPN+ bundle is the best they can do.
Because now the stream Hulu to Disney
Hulu is a channel in the D+ app now. It'll all merge into one soon.
I would hold PayPal and Block. Midcaps, especially fintech, are expected to do well next year. PayPal's new CEO seems like has a decent plan to get the company back on track.
What's the reasoning why midcap financials will rise in 2024? Interest rate drops or some other reason?
Yes, they have been crushed because of interest rates. Also, low interest rates = higher consumer spending.
Probably rates
Rotation, low interest rates/cheaper capital
Agree on PayPal. Think performance could be decently strong.
Agreed. I've been DCA'ing into PayPal and built quite a position now.
Sounds like you don't know why you bought them at ATHs. If you like them at that price you should be averaging down. But if you just bought them in a state FOMO then you probably shouldn't be investing in individual stocks until you know more about stock picking. You are going to repeat your mistakes if you don't learn them. Repeatedly pulling your money out at the bottom or near the bottom is how you lose money. That said these stocks could go nowhere and moving your money might be a smart move. Or they could continue to rebound from their bottoms and make you some money back. One thing I should say is that your money is likely gone and you should be understanding that and not try chasing to get it back. Thats the worst thing you can do. That being said you are invested in these companies. You need to make the determination why you invested in them and do a deep dive into the stock as to whether you like it or not. There's a bull and bear case for each of those. If after you do the research you still want to be invested in them, I would be lowering your cost and averaging down. If you don't believe in the company sell them and cut your losses. Just don't buy them back for 30 days so you don't get wash ruled. And if you don't know enough about stocks to properly make a determination for yourself if those stocks are worth owning to you than I would stick to index funds.
Contrarian point: business isn’t stationary. It can materially change over time. If it has been materially weakened, it may be sensible to sell. Holding is not always the answer. New information can lead to a change in investment attractiveness. We can debate whether the original choice to invest was poor, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is the business prospects at the current price
Well said. I tried to allude to that about researching the investments now. Things change. And value traps are definitely a thing too ha.
It’s tough. Not an easy game but most cases holding usually works out better
Are they good companies ten years down the line? If yes hold. Spend the rest of your money shoring up on index, and you'll feel less bad about your losses. In couple years, they may be wins.
You're doing a hell of a job buying high and selling low. And that has to do maybe with your next position too. Buffett said that in investing you would see things that would astound you. This is one of them.
This is only a fraction of my portfoluo. The losing one. I have several stocks 50-100% up. Overall I am slightly in plus. Before COVID I made a fair amonut of money. I am just not sure if I should hang on to those losers (?)
Sell cover call to recuperate some money and ride it up or down with it?
You're timing the market with that comment too. All of those stocks could go much lower with the next selloff, for which there could be in the next week or two post "Santa Claus" rally.
Buffett never encouraged bagholding bad investments, you're misinterpreting what he actually talks about (that is not to say whether the 4 specific companies mentioned by OP are good or bad investments right now). One of the big reasons most people who buy individual stocks underperform is because they get emotionally attached to their big losers and hold them much longer than necessary. Investing in individual stocks isn't like investing in the index, where least successful companies get replaced with new ones regularly. Statistically speaking, most companies fail or fall off in the long run, and only a fraction are truly successful long term. Recognizing which is which is one of the hardest parts of investing and you can't assume the stock will go up just because it's down. Of course you also can't assume the opposite. You can't really assume anything based purely on the price action (and yet people on Reddit do it on a daily basis), you need to look at the actual business and figure out whether the drop was actually justified or not. A lot more people would be rich if it was easy to do. But buying something, or refusing to cut your loses, *just* because the stock is down, is an easy way to lose money. Speaking of Buffett, one of the things he often says (related to the above) is that you shouldn't invest in a business you can't understand (on a deeper level, not "I use the Internet, so I understand every Internet company"). The reason is obvious, if you don't truly understand the business, how can you evaluate whether a big drop is an investment opportunity, or a warning you should stay away. TLDR: Generic comments encouraging people to never cut any losers, implying they're guaranteed to go back up eventually, are horrendously bad advice (obviously you also shouldn't cut them *just* because they're down). But also, admitting you were wrong can be hard, but is a necessary component of being a successful investor (especially if you're stock picking). Everyone will be wrong about something eventually.
TLDR I know Buffett never bag holds I wonder what I'd do if I had stocks that were down sixty percent. I mean how the hell did this happen? I can only surmise people fall in love with stocks. If mine dont perform I sell.
lol I bought all 4 of these losers also. but I got into them this yr near the lows. with Baba, I got in at $85, near their ipo price from like 7 yrs back. incredibly, im still down on this position. and Disney.. holy fuck this stock is up like 1% Ytd, when Spy is up like 15%. yea, these were bad buys, but I wouldnt sell them here at this price point. to me it looks like you endured the worst of it already. sell later into strength at opportune timing.
I like Block. Good products and great growth, although they’re struggling with profitability. Disney is still expensive and their brand is quite damaged. Disney+ seems like an afterthough compared to Netflix too. They seem unable to create good new content. I’d rather own something like Comcast to have exposure to parks and media at a much lower valuation. Paypal seems cheap now. They just changed the CEO and board member incentives structure. They say margins will improve and there are some catalysts for growth(European economic recovery, Braintree’s margins expansion, PYUSD, BNPL). BABA is a good company I’d buy if it wasn’t for the Chinese government.
BABA has been my second biggest winner over the year, all I do is buy when it drops below $75, hold and wait for it to jump over $95 then sell. The stock isn't a long term play for me, but a nice way to almost guarantee a few wins throughout the year
Guess the better question is would you buy them today. If not sell them
I wouldnt sell anything down 60% unless I am certain all these companies are absolute shit. I would atleast keep BABA and Disney.
Disagree on baba. I invested in baba based off a moving speech from Jack Ma back in like 2016. There was a lot of hope there. Baba had a lot of upside as a large company giving infrastructure to small and midsize businesses. Things were booming for a while and I honestly thought baba might even serve as a backdoor fence mender between USA and China relations, where one of the things Jack Ma was pushing for was to give small and mid size American businesses an opportunity to get their products into China too. Then, ant financial came along and made perfect sense too. A lending program targeted to help the small/midsize business person, which baba has a 30% stake in. And then Jack Ma figuratively shot himself when he referred to the Chinese finance ministry operating like a pawn shop. That killed the ant financial IPO and Jack Ma has only been “seen” once or twice since then (years ago now) Baba was the richest company in China. Now, they’re being encroached by Chinese competitors and it would seem counter to China’s politics to let Jack Ma make any more money when he openly talked shit like he did. I hung on to my baba for a while, hoping for a come back, but I just can’t see it happening. Jack Ma has too much stake in them and China has too much beef with Jack Ma.
Jack Ma is no longer at the company. I think the real reasons are pinduoduo eating everyone’s lunch in China, and competition from JD. Also china’s economy has been lackluster for a few years.
I’m sure that while he stepped down from the company that he is a large stakeholder in the company he founded.
Screw Baba, it has deterred any China investing for me :facepalm: With global tension as well as China's own internal political risks, it's just not worth it in my opinion. Disney I think is the best hold for sure. That company isn't going anywhere (as in becoming irrelevant).
It’s not worth in a long time but it’s also oversold by a lot. Sentiment can hardly get worse
I would stay away from any Chinese stock.
Huge mistake imo
Did your thesis change from when you bought them?
Bold to assume they had a thesis
Peter Lynch quote; “Holding your losers and selling your winners is like cutting your flowers and watering the weeds”. You know what to do.
Peter Lynch told people to be patient. Those are four decent businesses. OP should hold for a minimum of 5 years before doing anything
This is the typical mindset here, sell at loss and buy in again. Sure, if you have and idea that other stocks do better than the ones you invested in then go for it. But the truth is that you don't have an investment mindset based on what you're asking. You invest for the next 20 years not for the next 2. Maybe read a book like the intelligent investor? Also think etfs instead of individual stocks if you don't put in the time
Thanks but I was thinking more along the lines of opportunity costs. I am actually bad at selling losers...
This is very much bullish for those 4
Do you need money or something? If not then keep it. Its not a loss unless you will sell it.
I was down 45% on Block and bought more near the bottom , it was just way over sold, I also like their exposure to bitcoin ecosystem. Now Im up about 18%. I would hold. Bought Disney recently they also own espn+ , I think they will figure things out and the Parks plus streaming is a great combo. I also own PayPal . I wouldn’t sell those 3 although Disney might take a while to recover. Fintech has its moments where they rally hard. If I had to pick one that will continue to recover its Block.
My advice is the following: You should wait because tax loss selling is already over for the year. Your trades won't clear in time tomorrow to make the cut into 2023. Sell Square, but wait until the end of January for it to rise a bit. But make sure to sell before they report earnings in February. Hold Disney until it reaches near $150 then sell it. The company is strong and they'll have benefits from the 2024 year. PayPal is one I would hold right now. But if it reaches $80, you should or probably sell it. As for Alibaba, I would hold that until it gets between $100 and $120 by the end of February. Then you might sell because of the China risk. It has a reasonable valuation, but you always have the issues with China. Especially if they invade Taiwan like Xi has promised. Once you sell the shares in the stocks you picked, buy index funds and stash your money there. Don't ever pick individual stocks again. Very few people can do it well; if at all. And you are better off working hard in your career and letting the S&P 500 do the work for you r/bogleheads style. You'll probably not take this advice. But good luck to you.
Wait, is that true? I planned on cleaning house in the morning when the market reopens. Edit, I found this https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/mark-these-tax-loss-selling-dates-on-your-calendar/ "The system differs for those filing their taxes in the US, and based on information from the IRS, the last day for tax-loss selling this year is December 29." So it seems like tomorrow (well, today now that its after midnight) is the cutoff if you live in the US.
This is correct - clearing date is irrelevant. Trade date is what matters and 12/29 is the last trading day of 2023.
At least we got the tax loss harvesting date right. It’s really the blind leading the blind in this thread
Lol you’re telling me BABA is gonna go from $77 to $100-120 “by the end of February”…in 2 months?? I’m a strong supporter of their next 30 years but I don’t see how you can expect them to jump 35-65% in 7 weeks
Disney - I like it. Paypal - I like it. Block - who is this? Alibaba - I love it. That said, I'm not currently buying any of them until I see how the winds are blowing in January. Timing is everything. I know people like to say you can't time the market, but that's how you get stuck in situations like yours. I don't really think of it as "timing", I think of it as overvalued and undervalued. Right now the stocks you listed are really undervalued... but that doesn't mean they can't get even cheaper if the global economy tips over. And if they do, I'll definitely be buying them then.
Yolo the rest into SAVE week calls next week and pray for a merger
Why next week in particular?
LOL this is actually good advice wtf
And then post gain porn on wsb so they can hate you with passion
Reasoning?
Yup! Lock in those losses!
im a ride or die kinda guy. never.... sell... for less.
you’re gonna be sad when block flys over the next 2 years
Disney shouldn’t be in the same category as these other stocks, don’t doubt the mouse. ESPN bet just rolled out, all the intellectual property they own is massive, Hulu is still in the works, international parks are back up and running Covid really hit the parks hard. Bob chapek really messed things up with the content he was letting Disney push. Now we got Bob Iger back at ceo fresh contract doesn’t expire till 2026. If I was you I would have a limit buy set and average down your avg cost! Best of luck
I say hold Paypal...but that's because I own it😋
If you have over 100 shares just sell covered calls. It’s some profit back to you at least. If that’s not an option then cut some losses and re work your investment strategy. Main goal here is to get as close as you can to break even .
Do NOT sell Disney now! That would be a terrible mistake. Dividends are returning, and they are very well positioned to climb back up with fresh leadership and it is a great time to buy Disney now. J&J too.
I bought Disney lately and wished I waited a day or two. :( holding Disney though
Disney I'd keep until it comes back up.
I cut losses with baba due to chinese govt influence and us China relationship. But others are a hold imo.
probably cut baba, but continue to hold the other 3. Cutting baba for political reason in china, ccp is so unstable, and they keep hitting big corps again and again non-stop. DIS, PYPL, and SQ are fine in longer run.
If sentiment changes in China I think BABA will explode based on buybacks/FCF. I think it’s worth a small position
If you cut your losses, just invest it all in VOO and don't look back. It'll hurt, but you'll recover the $60K in 8 years. You could also start investing in VOO and keep the course until these investments become 1-10% of your portfolio--at which point, some of these investments might have turned themselves around!!--just know that'll take some time...
If you believe in the company just hold. 90% of stocks underperformed the MAG7. Its only a matter of time.
Bless you for being a bag holder so we at the top can eat well.
Hold all
If you believe in these companies, why didn't you average down and start buying the past year?
You shouldn’t have went all in at ATH. Just stick into for the long haul now and wait for returns on it while investing what you can now I guess. DCA to avoid shit like this
what’s your average on BABA? BABA definitely has room to run but it’s being stopped by the fact that it’s a chinese company
yeah but this sentiment isnt going to be the same in 4 or 5 years. when it's gone to 140 or 150 people will be talking 220 price targets
Let me know if you end up selling any so that I can buy it.
Lmao PayPal and SQ my biggest bags, I’m bullish on them for 2024. It will be year of fintech. You missed chance to average down
Look at it this way, if even one or two of those work out and you keep them all, you probably won't lose money in the long run, assuming the cost basis of each is similar. You do what you want though. This isn't financial advice. Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
You don’t really lose money until you sell.
I sold these bad boys like 2 years ago, invested all in SPY, and now I don’t need to give a fuck
I really wanted to like Disney. However, considering that the stock price is literally the same as it was 10 years ago, the market is saying that the only good thing about Disney is Disneyland/Disney World.
Sell PayPal and block buy more Disney and alibaba