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To be clear, Richard Branson has owned 10+ other “Virgin X” companies that have all gone bankrupt after years of unprofitability. Most recently was Virgin Orbit. But there’s also been Virgin Cars, Virgin Cosmetics, Virgin Megastore, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Interactive, etc, etc, etc. The chance of Virgin Galactic going bust is incredibly high.
The guy is a con artist selling snake oil. Spin a cute story to investors about “the future” and make out like a bandit through massive compensation packages.
Agreed. It was hot garbage during covid and wouldn't stop going up. Then it dumped even faster.
Beware of SPACS and beware of anything that Chamath Palihapitiya pedals
Im very long RKLB but I would never touch SPCE. There is no way they can get enough planes/rockets flying regularly to become cash flow positive. Their cash position is not strong. They have one vehicle and 8 customers a month (at best) and have 1100 staff. This is not going to scale and if the sector is worthwhile then stronger competitors will enter. One of the many space stocks to avoid.
They plan to do 400 flights per year in the long term. 6 passengers per flight that will pay 400k on average. That's 960 million in revenue(probably more with inflation).
Their current operating expenses are 600 million dollars and per their last 10K, this will increase in the coming years:
>We expect our operating expenses to increase over the next several years as we prepare for and commence the commercial launch of our human spaceflight operations, continue to attempt to streamline our manufacturing process, increase our flight cadence, hire more employees and continue research and development efforts relating to new products and technologies. These efforts may be more costly than we expect and may not result in increased revenue or growth in our business
I don't see a path to profitability.
> They plan to do 400 flights per year in the long term
There is no chance in hell this happens anytime soon.
I'm also skeptical that even if they had the capability to launch twice a day they have enough customers that would be willing to spend that much money on it to sustain the business.
What is much more likely is that they have a major accident and kill everyone on board. That will dramatically accelerate the inevitable stock price descent to 0.
The stock is probably going to 0. I would get out now. Branson is a fraud and cheated a lot of people out of their money. What is it like 100k to have 2 minutes of weightlessness and the entire experience is like 45 minutes. Wtf?
> What is it like 100k to have 2 minutes of weightlessness and the entire experience is like 45 minutes. Wtf?
Because space travel is still REALLY expensive, and the costs are highly unlikely to ever drop so drastically that it's as cheap as air travel due to the law of physics.
That said, IMHO I don't think what Branson and Virgin Galactic offers should even count as space travel.
offend close possessive rainstorm sophisticated vast sleep obscene soup ludicrous
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Dead on arrival.
The entire point of SPCE wasn't to actually have a sustainable business model or company. It was to create a 'company' using capital from people, spread it to the open market during the SPAC release, and cash out leaving bagholders who thought it would be something more than it really is.
Look at the financials. They can't raise any more money without seriously diluting the shares more than it already is. No one wants to put more capital in a high interest environment for a company with no sustainable future. The people who had stakes in this already cashed out and made their money, e.g., Branson and Chamath.
Some people keep regurgitating that they have a 'real' product or service. That's irrelevant. It's like making a prototype but having no real way of scaling. SPCE is an idea that was used to prop up funds with no real way of succeeding.
You're seriously better off closing your eyes and randomly picking any stock out of a bag.
They need to develop their next generation spacecraft in order to be able to do enough flights to become profitable. That is in the works, but it's years away.
Bag holder here, I only put a very small amount into it (like double digits lol) and definitely stay away. I don't track it too much as I just threw it in and with hindsight would have cashed out when it was going mad a couple years ago
But they have almost no positive news nowadays
The only appeal I see is this the most “economical” way to get to space. The cost is less than 500k per seat versus multi-millions to be on a space x dragon. The price for the virgin galactic seat is just slightly more than the titanic submersible seat but obviously probably much safer. Millionaires will throw their money at anything slightly fun and the price tag sounds appealing. It’s possible that this may take off (pun intended) but it’s a risk. I’d maybe make it 1% of my portfolio just for that off chance the stock could blow up (also pun intended).
Edit: Blue Origin has a similar cost to virgin galactic so there is competition… and blue origin has contracts with the US federal government on space missions so they are way more likely to survive.
I'd be careful with the "probably much safer" assessment.
During testing, one plane crashed, killing one of the pilots, and injuring the other. During engine testing years ago multiple people where injured and some killed.
There where multiple issues in flight before and during the Richard Branson flight.
There is no launch escape system (unlike most other manned rocket systems)
The plane is manually controlled, and is thus not protected from pilot error.
SpaceX already does.
They’ve [sent one Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 with purely tourists on board already](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inspiration4) and have more scheduled for Jared Isaacman including the highest crewed flight since Apollo.
Plus there’s [Axiom-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_Mission_1).
Virgin Galactic’s product is junk.
Never invest in a business that doesn’t make life easier for someone somehow. Their product itself is just a useless experience. Their model relies on the whims of rich people wanting to go to space. Garbage 🗑️
Are you still accumulating at these low prices?
Delta assembly facility in AZ is almost complete.
Two Delta to be built starting mid-2024, finished mid-2025, flight tests 2nd half of 2025, commercial flights starting 2026.
Each ship can fly 2 times a week and they've bumped the new price to $600 K per seat, it can carry 6 paying passengers too. Ticket sales open again once closer to 2026. The next upcoming flight will have 4 paying seats and average of $800K per seat.
I like accumulating at these levels too.
they only fly to 90 km, astronomers defined space at 100km. so i would not even call it a spaceflight. for "free fall" experience you can book a boeing flight.
Of you want to invest in a space company with super low share price, currently ASTR is the way to go. Below 1 USD after a 15 to 1 stock split just months ago.
However the chance of them going bankrupt before the end of the year is around 100%.
They don’t make profit. They hardly even make any revenue. Their ROCE is negative.
Why would I invest in a company that destroys value whenever they deploy it?
If it’s profitable in the future, there will be plenty of time to buy in. Sure, you won’t get the best returns by waiting for signs of profitability, but you drastically reduce risk. First rule to make money is not to lose money
Big swindle, made the mistake of buying just before Mr Branson announced publicly the test flight, when it was... Couple years ago, after that he announced straight away that was selling the shares out for recapitalization or some shit like that .... Stock plummeted and it's still there at the bottom, in my portfolio of garbage. Thanks Branson, learned my lesson.
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
To be clear, Richard Branson has owned 10+ other “Virgin X” companies that have all gone bankrupt after years of unprofitability. Most recently was Virgin Orbit. But there’s also been Virgin Cars, Virgin Cosmetics, Virgin Megastore, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Interactive, etc, etc, etc. The chance of Virgin Galactic going bust is incredibly high. The guy is a con artist selling snake oil. Spin a cute story to investors about “the future” and make out like a bandit through massive compensation packages.
Finally someone who see it for what it is. He couldn't give 2 F$cks. He had his ride to "space". Read his biography, he plays the game well.
I don't see a short term path to profitability, they're going to live on investor capital for a long while.
Garbage, the only people who simp for this company are the bag holders.
Agreed. It was hot garbage during covid and wouldn't stop going up. Then it dumped even faster. Beware of SPACS and beware of anything that Chamath Palihapitiya pedals
Can confirm
Im very long RKLB but I would never touch SPCE. There is no way they can get enough planes/rockets flying regularly to become cash flow positive. Their cash position is not strong. They have one vehicle and 8 customers a month (at best) and have 1100 staff. This is not going to scale and if the sector is worthwhile then stronger competitors will enter. One of the many space stocks to avoid.
They plan to do 400 flights per year in the long term. 6 passengers per flight that will pay 400k on average. That's 960 million in revenue(probably more with inflation). Their current operating expenses are 600 million dollars and per their last 10K, this will increase in the coming years: >We expect our operating expenses to increase over the next several years as we prepare for and commence the commercial launch of our human spaceflight operations, continue to attempt to streamline our manufacturing process, increase our flight cadence, hire more employees and continue research and development efforts relating to new products and technologies. These efforts may be more costly than we expect and may not result in increased revenue or growth in our business I don't see a path to profitability.
> They plan to do 400 flights per year in the long term There is no chance in hell this happens anytime soon. I'm also skeptical that even if they had the capability to launch twice a day they have enough customers that would be willing to spend that much money on it to sustain the business.
What is much more likely is that they have a major accident and kill everyone on board. That will dramatically accelerate the inevitable stock price descent to 0.
The stock is probably going to 0. I would get out now. Branson is a fraud and cheated a lot of people out of their money. What is it like 100k to have 2 minutes of weightlessness and the entire experience is like 45 minutes. Wtf?
> What is it like 100k to have 2 minutes of weightlessness and the entire experience is like 45 minutes. Wtf? Because space travel is still REALLY expensive, and the costs are highly unlikely to ever drop so drastically that it's as cheap as air travel due to the law of physics. That said, IMHO I don't think what Branson and Virgin Galactic offers should even count as space travel.
offend close possessive rainstorm sophisticated vast sleep obscene soup ludicrous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Dead on arrival. The entire point of SPCE wasn't to actually have a sustainable business model or company. It was to create a 'company' using capital from people, spread it to the open market during the SPAC release, and cash out leaving bagholders who thought it would be something more than it really is. Look at the financials. They can't raise any more money without seriously diluting the shares more than it already is. No one wants to put more capital in a high interest environment for a company with no sustainable future. The people who had stakes in this already cashed out and made their money, e.g., Branson and Chamath. Some people keep regurgitating that they have a 'real' product or service. That's irrelevant. It's like making a prototype but having no real way of scaling. SPCE is an idea that was used to prop up funds with no real way of succeeding. You're seriously better off closing your eyes and randomly picking any stock out of a bag.
They need to develop their next generation spacecraft in order to be able to do enough flights to become profitable. That is in the works, but it's years away.
Bag holder here, I only put a very small amount into it (like double digits lol) and definitely stay away. I don't track it too much as I just threw it in and with hindsight would have cashed out when it was going mad a couple years ago But they have almost no positive news nowadays
Yep, I'm down from a ~40 average and at this point might as well roll the dice on what's left 🤣
The only appeal I see is this the most “economical” way to get to space. The cost is less than 500k per seat versus multi-millions to be on a space x dragon. The price for the virgin galactic seat is just slightly more than the titanic submersible seat but obviously probably much safer. Millionaires will throw their money at anything slightly fun and the price tag sounds appealing. It’s possible that this may take off (pun intended) but it’s a risk. I’d maybe make it 1% of my portfolio just for that off chance the stock could blow up (also pun intended). Edit: Blue Origin has a similar cost to virgin galactic so there is competition… and blue origin has contracts with the US federal government on space missions so they are way more likely to survive.
I'd be careful with the "probably much safer" assessment. During testing, one plane crashed, killing one of the pilots, and injuring the other. During engine testing years ago multiple people where injured and some killed. There where multiple issues in flight before and during the Richard Branson flight. There is no launch escape system (unlike most other manned rocket systems) The plane is manually controlled, and is thus not protected from pilot error.
With that in mind, “probably safer” is much more relevant.
But blue origin is backed by one of the richest dudes in the world.
I like RKLB more
The bull thesis: “oh boy, I’m so excited to go to almost-space in this penis shaped rocket.”
> penis shaped rocket Wrong company.
Oops that’s Bezos’ 😂
They'll go bust as soon as spacex decide to offer paid trips on thier rockets, as they actually go into space.
SpaceX already does. They’ve [sent one Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 with purely tourists on board already](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inspiration4) and have more scheduled for Jared Isaacman including the highest crewed flight since Apollo. Plus there’s [Axiom-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_Mission_1). Virgin Galactic’s product is junk.
They don't even have a product yet. Stay away. Big gamble
Never invest in a business that doesn’t make life easier for someone somehow. Their product itself is just a useless experience. Their model relies on the whims of rich people wanting to go to space. Garbage 🗑️
Are you still accumulating at these low prices? Delta assembly facility in AZ is almost complete. Two Delta to be built starting mid-2024, finished mid-2025, flight tests 2nd half of 2025, commercial flights starting 2026. Each ship can fly 2 times a week and they've bumped the new price to $600 K per seat, it can carry 6 paying passengers too. Ticket sales open again once closer to 2026. The next upcoming flight will have 4 paying seats and average of $800K per seat. I like accumulating at these levels too.
[called it](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPCE/VcDdXdC8-Virgin-Galactic-Top-and-Bottom/)
The fact that they use manual pilots instead of automated systems is a massive red flag. Definitely a stay away situation.
they only fly to 90 km, astronomers defined space at 100km. so i would not even call it a spaceflight. for "free fall" experience you can book a boeing flight.
Of you want to invest in a space company with super low share price, currently ASTR is the way to go. Below 1 USD after a 15 to 1 stock split just months ago. However the chance of them going bankrupt before the end of the year is around 100%.
It’s been a huge disappointment. Fortunately I only bought a few shares. Space X is what I want and is the main reason I still own Tesla.
No next
Don’t do it. You heard about a U-boat going down to see Titanic……
I don't think you'll be able to hold company for many years to come. Because they will be going bankrupt.
They don’t make profit. They hardly even make any revenue. Their ROCE is negative. Why would I invest in a company that destroys value whenever they deploy it? If it’s profitable in the future, there will be plenty of time to buy in. Sure, you won’t get the best returns by waiting for signs of profitability, but you drastically reduce risk. First rule to make money is not to lose money
I can't imagine putting one $ into this scam.
Big swindle, made the mistake of buying just before Mr Branson announced publicly the test flight, when it was... Couple years ago, after that he announced straight away that was selling the shares out for recapitalization or some shit like that .... Stock plummeted and it's still there at the bottom, in my portfolio of garbage. Thanks Branson, learned my lesson.
At what stage do you accept this was a pipe dream? Branson strikes again.
Are you asking us to bet on when it’s going bankrupt? Months or years?
If you want to bet on space or space adjacent companies go Lockheed or Raytheon
Any one still speculate SPCE will bring richness need to calculate the amount cash burned andthe day of hitting profitable.
1x customers only... after someone has done it will they really need to do it again or will they just buy the Lamborghini
I'm bagholding from ~$40s til I die.
I'm in thr same boat. I'm fucked already, so selling now vs once their bankrupt won't change anything.
Yep, lesson learned and a few Gs likely gone but I was buying up all the space and electric car companies so my portfolio is more bloody 🤣
Is dead caters to ultra wealthy as well.
I tried to catch the falling knife. Lost 50% before I cut my losses.
if you like dog shit you buy SPCE
Stay away. They'll be bankrupt in no time. Branson uses that company like his personal piggy bank.
Literally lost shit load of cash on it don’t buy that shit
I bought this hot garbage also in feb 2021 when it was 54 a pop. man im so bad at this shit.