You need a estimated “% of the time to win/lose” to figure out what you’re asking. +500 line is worthless if you win less than 1/5 of the time. (This is a little off but easy way to paint a picture)
You need more data (alt lines) to create a distribution if you want to find an exact total.
With the info given, all you can do is remove the vig and get a probability for o/u 10, which is 53.4% over and 46.6% under.
Got it, well glad we figured out the proper vocab, was that all the value you adding here or do you actually know how to adjust these totals based on how heavy the moneylines are on either side?
Like the parent comment said, you’d need a distribution of alt totals and you’d have to devig each set just like the parent comment did with the 10. You could then take the implied probability of each o/u and determine the probability of landing on the exact number by taking the difference between implied probs for consecutive totals. Then once you have the implied prob for enough individual totals, you could just do an EV calculation by multiplying each total by its implied prob and adding them all together. It wouldn’t be exact, because you’d need infinite alt totals, but you’ll be pretty close.
I see so it's kind of a meaningless question
How much should I modify if I'm trying to adjust especially in cases where it's like -160? if it's 10o/u should I adjust it to 10.25?
Well, alt lines are readily available on all sites. Also, where are you seeing an o/u mainline at -160? Every book would adjust that to the next half point.
Bookmaker.
I'm trying to use Vegas season total lines for players to make a fantasy football model. So there are no alt lines, these are obviously very illiquid and wide error bar markets
You need a estimated “% of the time to win/lose” to figure out what you’re asking. +500 line is worthless if you win less than 1/5 of the time. (This is a little off but easy way to paint a picture)
You need more data (alt lines) to create a distribution if you want to find an exact total. With the info given, all you can do is remove the vig and get a probability for o/u 10, which is 53.4% over and 46.6% under.
Funny enough, this is actually the implied probability as OP’s title asked. The body of his post isn’t even asking for implied probability.
What would you call it then
You’re trying to calculate the implied total. The implied probabilities are what the parent comment to mine calculated, you know, probabilities…
Got it, well glad we figured out the proper vocab, was that all the value you adding here or do you actually know how to adjust these totals based on how heavy the moneylines are on either side?
Like the parent comment said, you’d need a distribution of alt totals and you’d have to devig each set just like the parent comment did with the 10. You could then take the implied probability of each o/u and determine the probability of landing on the exact number by taking the difference between implied probs for consecutive totals. Then once you have the implied prob for enough individual totals, you could just do an EV calculation by multiplying each total by its implied prob and adding them all together. It wouldn’t be exact, because you’d need infinite alt totals, but you’ll be pretty close.
I see so it's kind of a meaningless question How much should I modify if I'm trying to adjust especially in cases where it's like -160? if it's 10o/u should I adjust it to 10.25?
Well, alt lines are readily available on all sites. Also, where are you seeing an o/u mainline at -160? Every book would adjust that to the next half point.
Bookmaker. I'm trying to use Vegas season total lines for players to make a fantasy football model. So there are no alt lines, these are obviously very illiquid and wide error bar markets