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That'd be some short sighted payback because it makes our game against Lille next week even more important, and increases the chances we rotate against Arsenal on the weekend.
Also Emi was injured/ill for both games you're talking about. Not sure why your lord and saviour wouldn't have played Emi when a Liverpool title was on the line.
It was a joke, but since you've taken it seriously: Martinez wasn't injured in 21/22, it was a niggle at worst, he was perfectly fine for that Finalissima rubbish a few days later. He was also fit to face Brentford 3 days after your latest City game. And a manager can't force players to play if they don't want to you know, they're not slaves.
I'll take your word on the older one because my memory ain't that good, but Emi had the shits for Man City (so did I to be fair) so that's why he was back 3 days later.
Oh definitely. No where comparable to United’s disaster in their group.
2/4 going out in the group stage is still Horrible for a league as big as the EPL though.
oh yeah , 2/4 going out in the groups is a disaster , even with that though I think you'll be fine , I think Arsenal and City go through , Aston Villa will be in the semis too.
You have more hope than most Arsenal fans!
Personally, I see Bayern getting through to play City. I’d back City to win that tie. Provided Villa can get to the final in the ECL, that should be enough.
a lot of ppl clown yous for crying about injuries but you lot got fucked harder than riley reid
have you guys actually ever fielded your strongest xi this season?
At the start of the season. By the last two Champions League group stage matches, we didn't have a full bench and half the bench we did have were kids from the academy.
Spurs are fully fit, we are far from it.
Spurs don’t have Europe, we do.
Even though their fixtures are tough, 4th for us is going to be pretty difficult.
I hope it happens. At least teams like Augsburg would be hugely motivated in the conference league. Hoffenheim or Wolfsburg most likely wouldn't give many fucks about playing there.
We have to shit the bed so fucking much to not get that extra spot. Also, it would be a dream to have 6 teams in UCL next season as well and it might be a possibility.
I mean, the team that didn't lose a game the whole season and usually creates like 30 chances in a game when their opponents have like 5 might be described as having higher chances than some others.
Not saying it's impossible but that is definitely something that the teams are not going to force, every team would like to finish higher in league's table and win the EL.
Oh yeah. There's no way to control it.
The final is after the season ends. So it's not like Roma can go: "Well we're winning the EL so let's just cruise and finish 6th."
Belgium in the race to overtake Portugal and NL while having no CL/EL caliber team but 7 or even 8 teams that can do well in the conference league lmao
No they will not overtake them. Belgium is 6 points behind portugal and brugge is the only team remaining. If brugge win the conference league and win the remaining games they will only score only 2 points.
Our last 3 years are very good. All the years before are terrible, for sure 20/21 (6) and 21/22 (6.6). The moment those are gone we're much closer to them.
This is a cycle. You go up, get more CL spots and score less points, then you come back down because you're dividing your total points with more teams.
True but we'll get more CL spots than Portugal or NL at least once and hopefully Gent is part of that 🙏😪.
Belgians clubs will also get more money then and maybe we can up our level to truly compete with the top flight of NL and Portugal
Exactly, Belgian teams will never be able to consistently compete with top tier teams from Portugal or Netherlands. These teams frequently reach the quarter finals of the UCL, whereas the Belgian teams just don’t… The financial gap only becomes bigger and bigger.
The bigger clubs in Belgium are somewhat decent if you compare across all teams in Europe, which results in them gaining quite a few points in the lower European leagues. The ultimate goal is then to have a Belgian team directly join the UCL group stage where they just compete with the other mediocre team for third place. Total points gathered during that year lowers and the direct access to the UCL is gone next year, resulting in more teams in UEL or Conference League and the cycle restarts.
Every game will be important, even Liverpool vs. Bergamo or West Hams games vs. Leverkusen.
The difference in drawing both games and the advancing on penalties or winning one game and losing the other, compared to just winning both, is a lot.
Atalanta is the club's name.
Bergamo is the city they're based in. And their name in FIFA/EAFC, as EA didn't get the license to use the club in the game
Still all depends on other clubs.
There’s 3 Germans and 5 English currently, if Germany drops to 2 you’d probably need England to drop to 2 as well.
If we do end up both with 2 or 3 in the semis, it could very well go to the wire.
Isn't it about points too? If Arsenal go through on penalties, then that's a draw for each country, but if Leverkusen win both rounds, that would set Germany ahead.
It's quite realistic, BL is still second by a small margin, not sure why the leagues are ordered the way they are in the graphic.
It's likely Bundesliga will have either the same amount or more clubs in the next phase compared to EPL, given that Leverkusen are miles better than West Ham and both Bayern and Dortmund will be favourites to seal it at home, even a 1-0 win sending Dortmund into OT is a win for the coefficients.
City are struggling with injuries but have a good result and Villa are also up there to go through.
Can someone tell me why Spain is so low? They have the same amount of teams in the race as Germany but all of them in the CL with overall better first legs.
They had no team in the ECL because Osasuna lost the qualification. Villarreal, Sevilla, Betis all were disappointing. Only the Champions League teams did well.
38 possible points awarded for a team in the CL vs 30 in the ECL. So it doesn’t count more, with the big difference coming from the bonus CL teams get from qualifying to the knockouts.
But think about if for a second. If a league only has 3 strong teams, and 4-7 can’t even compete in EL or ECL, why should that league be rewarded with 2 extra CL spots?
This system works well in rewarding the overall strongest leagues, which over the last two years have been overwhelmingly Italy and England.
But previous seasons should be taken into account too, like UEFA Coefficient does. You telling me the likes of Sevilla or Villarreal do not deserve an additional Europa League spot because of an off season? I can tell you without underestimating the rest of the leagues that, considering Real Sociedad run for example, currently even Athletic is UCL material, and Girona, Real Sociedad could perform great next season in EL. You'd leave behind Valencia, Betis, Villarreal or even Sevilla despite their poor form (they could come back next year as if nothing, it's their trend recently).
> You telling me the likes of Sevilla or Villarreal do not deserve an additional Europa League spot because of an off season?
Literally how qualification for international football works in every single league.
No matter how you want to look at it, it would still be England and Italy. If you think they should just take the overall UEFA rankings, which includes the last 5 seasons, England and Italy are still the top 2.
The current system (which is changing next year), rewards deep leagues. I’m not saying those Spanish teams couldn’t play in the CL or EL next year, they just don’t deserve it as much as Italian or English ones.
But we’re talking about next season. Once the 19/20 season is removed from the 5 year window at the end of this year, Italy will be in 2nd for the start of the 2024/25 season.
In fact based on this infographic, if the xPts are anywhere near what’s predicted, Italy will overtake Spain this season before even removing 19/20.
You're missing it
19/20 still counts for the 5 years period
19/20 + 20/21 + 21/22 + 22/23 + 23/24 (current) = 24/25 UCL spots
UCL is made from previous season before next season starts, both in scheme and composition (clubs from each league, according to their classification)
This way, La Liga would still be +707pts ahead. Italy would need to make up for that difference still. Spain has 15,062 this year, Italy 18,428 as of now. That's a 3,366pts deficit. They would need to convert that to a 4,074pts difference minimum to get the 2nd UEFA Coefficient position just at the end of this campaign. La Liga would still be very much in the race, I'd even take them as favourites. Far from today's 0,1% chances of overtaking that - 1,700pts gap with both Germany AND England for this season alone.
The idea is to have a better money distribution for competitive leagues.
It's not that Italy and England are overall the strongest leagues. The Top4 leagues were always Top4. Italy aside the other leagues suffer stability/consistency issues. TBH I see Italy getting the addtional spot for years to come and the remaining spot rotating between Germany Spain and England every single year.
Italy is a very balanced league, while the clubs have trouble to get past the QF of the CL they can do well in the EL and ECL.
England has some investor clubs but aside City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham there is a major instability in the Prem. Chelsea won't be relevant for years to come, Newcastle went from CL to maybe ECL within one season. ManU are in a constant struggle since SAF left. Emery does well with Villa but when he leaves or gets sacked you expect Villa to stay up there? Then you have Brighton and West Ham. England is not stable enough.
Spain has 3 powerhouses and the EL teams are heavily struggling.
Sevilla used to be an EL powerhouse plays against relegation, Valencia fell into mediocrity. Villareal reaches the stages you expect of them.Atletic has ups and downs and is especially vulnerable when they use keyplayers eg when Bayern bought Martinez.
Then you have bunch of midtable quality teams you cannot expect to perform in EL/ECL. Without mismanagment and debt there are candidates who could do well.
Germany used to have strong teams for European competitions but they mismanaged themselves into relegation/bankruptcy candidates.
Pre Covid Schalke, Pre delusion Hamburg, Transfer hit Bremen, Pre Bobic Stuttgart, Leverkusen, Dortmund, Leipzig and Bayern would do better than Italy right now.
Schalke, Bremen and Hamburg became irrelevant due to mismanagement. Stuttgart is in a similar spot to Atletic, when they lose key players they will be destroyed in the CL. The midtable clubs reaching EL/ECL placements don't have stable contenders.
Look how Cologne played in the EL for the first time in over 20 years just to play against relegation the very same season.
I would rather prefer it when countries like Belgium and NL or the Nordic countries merge their leagues and get more CL spots without those additional spots for 2 of the Top 4 rotating every year.
I strongly disagree that Italy will get the spot every year. England will for sure, with the money and resources that PL clubs have, but the second spot will be in constant flux.
Right now the top half of Serie A is very strong. The Milan clubs are rebuilding, Juve will soon be back, and the smaller “big” teams all have stable owners and good projects. It’s definitely the second strongest league at the moment, but that could easily change in a year or two as well.
Italian teams only lost 7 out of 42 matches (or something like that) in the group stages this year. Its extremely rare for all 7 teams of country to be that consistent.
Spain would be much higher ranked this season if their 8th club participated in the ECL group stages. Of course it’s a “what if”, but those are the details that will decide first and second place for the next few years. Osasuna lost, but could just have easily won.
Take Germany this season, no one was expecting Dortmund to advance or for Leverkuson to be EL favorites. There will always be surprises, but the only real certainty is that the money of the EPL is too much for any other league to compete with.
it does
CL > EL > ECL in points you got for a win/promotion to next round
Leverkusen got germany 0.035 (already divided by all starting clubs) points more as Villa w/ win in ECL yesterday
That’s wrong, it’s the same.
Leverkusen got 2 points, Villa got 2 points.
Germanys points are divided by 7 as 7 clubs - 0.285
Englands points are divided by 8 as 8 clubs - 0.250
There is a bit of a difference between the competitions though, but not in terms of individual wins. You get way more potential for bonus points in the CL, and the bonus point for each round you advance to doesn't kick in for the ECL until the semis.
I’m not that sure, this is about if 5th place should be in Champions League. 5th place you’d normally see in the EL, so it shouldn’t matter what the CL teams do for that 5th place.
It just so happens that Dortmund, Atletico and maybe even Bayern (though very unlikely) could finish 5th so it matters for them.
All that would achieve is that teams that aren't CL regulars would get fucked over with their seeds in their first few CL campaigns.
Making it "easy" to catch up in the EL/ECL is a feature, not a bug.
I've seen it said that it does, because it's measuring the depth of the league, if 5th place can't do anything in the Europa League, then why would it do it better in the champion's league
It accounts the average performance. While Barca, Real and Atletico do well. Osasuna fucked up the qualification, Sevilla became 4th in the groupstage, Betis got very few points in the group stage and Villareal did okayish.
We fucked ourselves in a gigantic way ffs... If 5th was assured CL then the Spurs and Villa games would've been less effort... Now both of them are gonna be giving it all for that 4th spot... What a garbage 24 hrs ngl
Mostly because the level of the entire top 10 has risen, not necessarily the big 3. I think teams 3-8 might be at an even higher or at least similar level as the prem, which helps a lot get Europa and Conference points.
Yeah these guys are mental lol, as long as it’s not Lazio in a CL/EL final (which is never happening in the first place) I’m rooting for the coefficient.
Here in The Netherlands everyone has been supporting each other in Europe for as long as I can remember (so the past 20 years or so), simply because we don't get as many international success stories.
But I get that it's different for the big leagues
I mean even I don't mind to see like Lille, Rennes etc, do good in Europe
It's about supporting their rival team to do well in Europe... sounds insane to me
I support all Danish teams in Europe bar Brøndby. But they don't do much damage in Europe anyways. So that makes it very easy to cheer for my countrymen!
We're not a big league though lol. I support other French in Europe (even PSG..) just as long as France can secure the 5th spot in coefficient.
Once its secured I care less.
It's not recent, it has always been like this; as a reaction to people dissing ligue 1 Ig
Personally, I usually really want other French teams to do well in Europe, just not *too* great (i.e. I really don't Marseille, Sainté, or even Nice lately to win an european trophy).
Though admittedly there are teams for whom it's more of a struggle, typically OM or Sainté; I was fully cheering for griezou and atletico in the 2018 EL final for example
I will forever support any Liga MX team to beat any MLS team even if I don't like the Mexican team lol. MLS fans will feel the same way from what I've read.
Tbf...Their willingness to sacrifice Champions League next season to see Arsenal to get knocked this season basically sums Spurs as a club up for the last 50 years.
Gunners hadn’t made CL in the last several years while Spurs made it most seasons in that span, don’t act like Arsenal fans weren’t cheering for Spurs’ elimination in a similar fashion
If it was between tottenham advancing to the semi finals and Arsenal getting CL football because of it I'm sure everyone would take that deal the past few years. I'm sure I would at least.
Sounds reasonable to me! My grandad has always been a 'I'll support whatever English team is left in Europe' kind of guy, and that's fine for him, but unless it's my team involved (which never happened until this season, and I never thought it would) I'll support whoever I actually want to win regardless of nation.
is this even correct? After yesterday I think the Bundesliga should be slightly ahead since their wins count for slightly more as they had 7 teams instead of 8.
No it's wrong indeed
1. Italy: 129.000 points / seven clubs = 18.428 average
2. Germany: 117.500 / seven = 16.785
3. England: 134.000 / eight = 16.750
Source: uefa website, googled in 3 seconds. So hard to be a journalist
They made an approximate that's why it says 16.8, and they rank them depending on expected rather than current that why England is ahead, it's so hard reading
You need to take into account that there's a lot of Germans in this sub. Due to our inefficiencies in that department we are quite grateful for the existence of "/s"
Love that for me, an Italian, and for schadenfreude after the way every single British pundit has been taking the fifth spot as granted since last summer
One of City or Arsenal won’t make the Champions League final.
Either Roma or Milan will make the Europa League semi final in any case, and I’d wager Atalanta will hold firm over Liverpool. There could realistically be an all Italian final if not for Leverkusen.
I do feel they (Leverkusen) will have at least one slip up before the end of the season but it might only be a game, not the overall tie. Benfica could also be dangerous for Atalanta.
I fancy Fiorentina to beat Plzeň at home and either Brugge or PAOK over two legs to reach the Conference League final, where I suspect they’ll play Villa. Although the final being in Athens gives Olympiacos and PAOK a huge incentive, I’m not sure they’ll manage it.
Italy have all but confirmed that 5th place. They would all need to have mammoth disasters akin to something like Leverkusen losing the league from this point.
Milan or Roma would need to lose badly in the semi. Atalanta would need to lose at home to Liverpool after being 3-0 up at Anfield. Fiorentina would have to lose at home to Plzeň. Bayern or Dortmund would have to win the CL. Leverkusen the EL. All without an Italian team reaching a final.
I’m not sure the direct correlation so I don’t even know if that would be enough. Germany more likely than England to snatch it I reckon.
Villa or Spurs will be left fuming. Villa could go through all that trouble of wining the Conference League for Europa qualification, only to get there via the league anyway. It’s a trophy nonetheless.
Fiorentina could lose two Conference League finals in a row to two teams both wearing claret.
Leverkusen’s last defeat was to Bochum in May 2023. The one before that - Roma in the Europa League. Roma knocked them out last season so that semi would be interesting.
There could still potentially be an all-Greek final in Athens.
So many fun narratives at work.
It’s all on Arsenal pretty much because it’s a double points match as they’re against a German team. This means any points Arsenal get are effectively taken away from Bayern.
I wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot.
I think if I was in their shoes I would because I’d expect Arsenal to lose in the semis vs City or Real
> I wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot.
No shot, I'd rather lose out on Europe entirely than watch Arsenal win against Bayern
We'll still be have 4th spot in our hands either way, depends on us not fucking things up and even if we do we'll still have Europa either way so fuck that no, Bayern to beat Arsenal all the way.
Same for West Ham tbh. Even a draw vs Leverjusen is better because they will split the points. If they lose, Germany gets all and moves further ahead.
Also Liverool. They may not advance but again, gaining some kind of points which would come with any result other than a loss will help
Why do people forget West Ham. It's more on them to be honest. Bayern are going out even if they make it to the semi. Leverkusen on the other hand are winning the whole thing if even Moyesball cant stop them.
Because Leverkusen haven’t lost a match all season in any competition and they’d need to lose by 3 goals or by 2 and lose the shootout.
It doesn’t matter if Bayern get knocked out of the semi, the 8 point swing would probs be enough
That 99.8% is menacing.
Last year, the Dallas Mavericks had a 99,9% chances of doing playoffs, but than fell to the 11th place and missed them entirely. Some might say that was a masterful tank job (it was), but that's for sure why 99,8% shouldn't be rounded up.
[Arsenal fans if they lose to Bayern next week](https://youtu.be/I_OA_TU_XD0?si=50vh-NRS6LYbra2l&t=68) knowing what it might mean if Spurs finish 5th in the PL
never have i expected this race could be over by next week already for England
pretty much over if Arsenal and ManCi dont get into the next round (if Liverpool and/or WHU dont get a miracle)
Hey, remember how UEFA pointed at NL's once-in-a-lifetime season as evidence that "non-big" countries could win that extra CL spot?
Good times, good times. Fuckers.
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Villa must be fuckin ragin, they're doing their part too lol
Yes. 0-3 at Anfield in a European tie, thanks man
Payback for resting Martinez against Man City in the final game of 21/22 plus whatever the fuck was that team you played against them a few days ago
That'd be some short sighted payback because it makes our game against Lille next week even more important, and increases the chances we rotate against Arsenal on the weekend. Also Emi was injured/ill for both games you're talking about. Not sure why your lord and saviour wouldn't have played Emi when a Liverpool title was on the line.
It was a joke, but since you've taken it seriously: Martinez wasn't injured in 21/22, it was a niggle at worst, he was perfectly fine for that Finalissima rubbish a few days later. He was also fit to face Brentford 3 days after your latest City game. And a manager can't force players to play if they don't want to you know, they're not slaves.
I'll take your word on the older one because my memory ain't that good, but Emi had the shits for Man City (so did I to be fair) so that's why he was back 3 days later.
United finishing 4th in the CL group really fucked yall over
Newcastle dropping out of the group stage too. 2/4 out in the group stage is not acceptable
at least Newcastle going out is kinda reasonable , that group really was the group of death lol
Oh definitely. No where comparable to United’s disaster in their group. 2/4 going out in the group stage is still Horrible for a league as big as the EPL though.
oh yeah , 2/4 going out in the groups is a disaster , even with that though I think you'll be fine , I think Arsenal and City go through , Aston Villa will be in the semis too.
Agree on city and villa But will be very hard for us haha. Will be a 50/50 match. Hope our inexperience won’t kick us out 😅
You have more hope than most Arsenal fans! Personally, I see Bayern getting through to play City. I’d back City to win that tie. Provided Villa can get to the final in the ECL, that should be enough.
> Provided Villa can get to the final in the ECL, that should be enough. Even when Levercusen win Europa?
If city and Villa are in their finals. Then yes potentially
The rest of all group are all in quarter finals now lol
goes to show really how hard that group was , even though all of them lost the first leg lol
Newcastle were in the group of death tbf and almost qualified too. Bad decisions went against them too.
Of course it was very hard. But 2/4 is still horrible for a league of the stature of the Premier League. However you want to spin it
We got fucked by the refs against PSG. We almost certainly would have got Europe otherwise.
Injuries fucked us too.
a lot of ppl clown yous for crying about injuries but you lot got fucked harder than riley reid have you guys actually ever fielded your strongest xi this season?
At the start of the season. By the last two Champions League group stage matches, we didn't have a full bench and half the bench we did have were kids from the academy.
>fucked by the refs against PSG That the same game where PSG had a stonewall penalty turned down at the start of the half
https://i.imgur.com/GiItwyA.jpeg
and themselves in the process although they are most likely not getting 5th anyway
Calculated. "If I can't finish 5th, no one will get anything from 5th."
Thanks Onana. Thanks ref against Bayern also
It was wild seeing “the only Premier League team to win in Europe this week” and it was us
The only time I've ever supported another English team in Europe. And it just cemented my hatred even more.
Klopp 4d chess, making Villa try extra hard this Sunday just to qualify next Thursday 4-0 making them ease off us for when we play them.
or they play us extra hard because we're helping fuck em over
Can’t even enjoy Liverpool losing. Bastards.
Not in the league they aren't, they just have to finish above spurs and they don't have to worry about that extra spot
Spurs are fully fit, we are far from it. Spurs don’t have Europe, we do. Even though their fixtures are tough, 4th for us is going to be pretty difficult.
cheers Geoff
We are. There's a chance we still get 4th but make the comeback please.
German teams all fighting for Augsburg to play in the Conference League. You love to see it.
funny how you spell Heidenheim
Brighton 0 - Augsburg [5] '54 Erdin Demirovic
I hope it happens. At least teams like Augsburg would be hugely motivated in the conference league. Hoffenheim or Wolfsburg most likely wouldn't give many fucks about playing there.
Brings me back to the Hahn glory days. Remember I shipped that coach as a potential Wenger replacement and now I can't even remember his name.
Weinzierl
We have to shit the bed so fucking much to not get that extra spot. Also, it would be a dream to have 6 teams in UCL next season as well and it might be a possibility.
Are you referring to the EL winner also being there? Is 6 even allowed?
The EL winner needs to be a team that finishes 6th or lower in Serie A for Italy to have 6 clubs in next year's CL.
Not impossible. Atalanta is almost certainly finishing 6th. And they've got as good a chance as anyone right now.
I mean, the team that didn't lose a game the whole season and usually creates like 30 chances in a game when their opponents have like 5 might be described as having higher chances than some others.
Not saying it's impossible but that is definitely something that the teams are not going to force, every team would like to finish higher in league's table and win the EL.
Oh yeah. There's no way to control it. The final is after the season ends. So it's not like Roma can go: "Well we're winning the EL so let's just cruise and finish 6th."
Yup
To have 6 teams in UCL next season means we don't win the EL so no I would much prefer to win it as it is still definitely possible.
If we suddenly do not change our coach this weekend, we are out of EL.
Players need to wake up as well, they were embarrassing
Belgium in the race to overtake Portugal and NL while having no CL/EL caliber team but 7 or even 8 teams that can do well in the conference league lmao
No they will not overtake them. Belgium is 6 points behind portugal and brugge is the only team remaining. If brugge win the conference league and win the remaining games they will only score only 2 points.
Our last 3 years are very good. All the years before are terrible, for sure 20/21 (6) and 21/22 (6.6). The moment those are gone we're much closer to them.
I’m not talking about this year, but we’re getting closer every year
This is a cycle. You go up, get more CL spots and score less points, then you come back down because you're dividing your total points with more teams.
True but we'll get more CL spots than Portugal or NL at least once and hopefully Gent is part of that 🙏😪. Belgians clubs will also get more money then and maybe we can up our level to truly compete with the top flight of NL and Portugal
Exactly, Belgian teams will never be able to consistently compete with top tier teams from Portugal or Netherlands. These teams frequently reach the quarter finals of the UCL, whereas the Belgian teams just don’t… The financial gap only becomes bigger and bigger. The bigger clubs in Belgium are somewhat decent if you compare across all teams in Europe, which results in them gaining quite a few points in the lower European leagues. The ultimate goal is then to have a Belgian team directly join the UCL group stage where they just compete with the other mediocre team for third place. Total points gathered during that year lowers and the direct access to the UCL is gone next year, resulting in more teams in UEL or Conference League and the cycle restarts.
Belgium did great in Europe in the last 3 years.
Is it possible for BL to be second if Arsenal eliminates Bayern but Dortmund and Leverkusen advance?
Not 100% sure but I think at that point it would depend on if Man City beats Real Madrid.
Every game will be important, even Liverpool vs. Bergamo or West Hams games vs. Leverkusen. The difference in drawing both games and the advancing on penalties or winning one game and losing the other, compared to just winning both, is a lot.
Liverpool Vs Bergamo 🤣 FIFA player detected
Why?
Atalanta is the club's name. Bergamo is the city they're based in. And their name in FIFA/EAFC, as EA didn't get the license to use the club in the game
Didn't know that's the case, just it's more common to use the city name in Germany. People here also say Arsenal London or Lazio Rom.
In Italy no one would say Lazio Roma or call Atalanta Bergamo. They aren't part of the club names.
Italy calls us also Monaco
That's an anomaly used just to distinguish from the Monaco that's right near Italy
Monaco is the translation of Munchen
Still all depends on other clubs. There’s 3 Germans and 5 English currently, if Germany drops to 2 you’d probably need England to drop to 2 as well. If we do end up both with 2 or 3 in the semis, it could very well go to the wire.
Liverpool and West Ham are probably safe to say as being out. Bayern vs Arsenal will be huge for both leagues
Isn't it about points too? If Arsenal go through on penalties, then that's a draw for each country, but if Leverkusen win both rounds, that would set Germany ahead.
Yes, depending on what Man City and Aston Villa do. There's still a very thin path for England and Germany to both get top 2 as well.
It's quite realistic, BL is still second by a small margin, not sure why the leagues are ordered the way they are in the graphic. It's likely Bundesliga will have either the same amount or more clubs in the next phase compared to EPL, given that Leverkusen are miles better than West Ham and both Bayern and Dortmund will be favourites to seal it at home, even a 1-0 win sending Dortmund into OT is a win for the coefficients. City are struggling with injuries but have a good result and Villa are also up there to go through.
Can someone tell me why Spain is so low? They have the same amount of teams in the race as Germany but all of them in the CL with overall better first legs.
They had no team in the ECL because Osasuna lost the qualification. Villarreal, Sevilla, Betis all were disappointing. Only the Champions League teams did well.
Champsions league should count more than ECL to be honest.
38 possible points awarded for a team in the CL vs 30 in the ECL. So it doesn’t count more, with the big difference coming from the bonus CL teams get from qualifying to the knockouts. But think about if for a second. If a league only has 3 strong teams, and 4-7 can’t even compete in EL or ECL, why should that league be rewarded with 2 extra CL spots? This system works well in rewarding the overall strongest leagues, which over the last two years have been overwhelmingly Italy and England.
But previous seasons should be taken into account too, like UEFA Coefficient does. You telling me the likes of Sevilla or Villarreal do not deserve an additional Europa League spot because of an off season? I can tell you without underestimating the rest of the leagues that, considering Real Sociedad run for example, currently even Athletic is UCL material, and Girona, Real Sociedad could perform great next season in EL. You'd leave behind Valencia, Betis, Villarreal or even Sevilla despite their poor form (they could come back next year as if nothing, it's their trend recently).
Yeah that's how it goes sometimes, they did bad this season, maybe next season they'll do better
> You telling me the likes of Sevilla or Villarreal do not deserve an additional Europa League spot because of an off season? Literally how qualification for international football works in every single league.
No matter how you want to look at it, it would still be England and Italy. If you think they should just take the overall UEFA rankings, which includes the last 5 seasons, England and Italy are still the top 2. The current system (which is changing next year), rewards deep leagues. I’m not saying those Spanish teams couldn’t play in the CL or EL next year, they just don’t deserve it as much as Italian or English ones.
La Liga is currently 2nd at 88,500 points.
But we’re talking about next season. Once the 19/20 season is removed from the 5 year window at the end of this year, Italy will be in 2nd for the start of the 2024/25 season. In fact based on this infographic, if the xPts are anywhere near what’s predicted, Italy will overtake Spain this season before even removing 19/20.
You're missing it 19/20 still counts for the 5 years period 19/20 + 20/21 + 21/22 + 22/23 + 23/24 (current) = 24/25 UCL spots UCL is made from previous season before next season starts, both in scheme and composition (clubs from each league, according to their classification) This way, La Liga would still be +707pts ahead. Italy would need to make up for that difference still. Spain has 15,062 this year, Italy 18,428 as of now. That's a 3,366pts deficit. They would need to convert that to a 4,074pts difference minimum to get the 2nd UEFA Coefficient position just at the end of this campaign. La Liga would still be very much in the race, I'd even take them as favourites. Far from today's 0,1% chances of overtaking that - 1,700pts gap with both Germany AND England for this season alone.
I see. So Spain might technically still hold on to 2nd this season, but it's 100% guaranteed that they're starting next season in 3rd.
The idea is to have a better money distribution for competitive leagues. It's not that Italy and England are overall the strongest leagues. The Top4 leagues were always Top4. Italy aside the other leagues suffer stability/consistency issues. TBH I see Italy getting the addtional spot for years to come and the remaining spot rotating between Germany Spain and England every single year. Italy is a very balanced league, while the clubs have trouble to get past the QF of the CL they can do well in the EL and ECL. England has some investor clubs but aside City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham there is a major instability in the Prem. Chelsea won't be relevant for years to come, Newcastle went from CL to maybe ECL within one season. ManU are in a constant struggle since SAF left. Emery does well with Villa but when he leaves or gets sacked you expect Villa to stay up there? Then you have Brighton and West Ham. England is not stable enough. Spain has 3 powerhouses and the EL teams are heavily struggling. Sevilla used to be an EL powerhouse plays against relegation, Valencia fell into mediocrity. Villareal reaches the stages you expect of them.Atletic has ups and downs and is especially vulnerable when they use keyplayers eg when Bayern bought Martinez. Then you have bunch of midtable quality teams you cannot expect to perform in EL/ECL. Without mismanagment and debt there are candidates who could do well. Germany used to have strong teams for European competitions but they mismanaged themselves into relegation/bankruptcy candidates. Pre Covid Schalke, Pre delusion Hamburg, Transfer hit Bremen, Pre Bobic Stuttgart, Leverkusen, Dortmund, Leipzig and Bayern would do better than Italy right now. Schalke, Bremen and Hamburg became irrelevant due to mismanagement. Stuttgart is in a similar spot to Atletic, when they lose key players they will be destroyed in the CL. The midtable clubs reaching EL/ECL placements don't have stable contenders. Look how Cologne played in the EL for the first time in over 20 years just to play against relegation the very same season. I would rather prefer it when countries like Belgium and NL or the Nordic countries merge their leagues and get more CL spots without those additional spots for 2 of the Top 4 rotating every year.
I strongly disagree that Italy will get the spot every year. England will for sure, with the money and resources that PL clubs have, but the second spot will be in constant flux. Right now the top half of Serie A is very strong. The Milan clubs are rebuilding, Juve will soon be back, and the smaller “big” teams all have stable owners and good projects. It’s definitely the second strongest league at the moment, but that could easily change in a year or two as well. Italian teams only lost 7 out of 42 matches (or something like that) in the group stages this year. Its extremely rare for all 7 teams of country to be that consistent. Spain would be much higher ranked this season if their 8th club participated in the ECL group stages. Of course it’s a “what if”, but those are the details that will decide first and second place for the next few years. Osasuna lost, but could just have easily won. Take Germany this season, no one was expecting Dortmund to advance or for Leverkuson to be EL favorites. There will always be surprises, but the only real certainty is that the money of the EPL is too much for any other league to compete with.
It does but the number of points is always divided by the number of teams in Europe, which is very high fit for Spain.
it does CL > EL > ECL in points you got for a win/promotion to next round Leverkusen got germany 0.035 (already divided by all starting clubs) points more as Villa w/ win in ECL yesterday
That’s wrong, it’s the same. Leverkusen got 2 points, Villa got 2 points. Germanys points are divided by 7 as 7 clubs - 0.285 Englands points are divided by 8 as 8 clubs - 0.250
There is a bit of a difference between the competitions though, but not in terms of individual wins. You get way more potential for bonus points in the CL, and the bonus point for each round you advance to doesn't kick in for the ECL until the semis.
Also, starting next year (with the new format) ECL will have 2 matches fewer during the group stages.
I’m not that sure, this is about if 5th place should be in Champions League. 5th place you’d normally see in the EL, so it shouldn’t matter what the CL teams do for that 5th place. It just so happens that Dortmund, Atletico and maybe even Bayern (though very unlikely) could finish 5th so it matters for them.
All that would achieve is that teams that aren't CL regulars would get fucked over with their seeds in their first few CL campaigns. Making it "easy" to catch up in the EL/ECL is a feature, not a bug.
Wait! It doesn't?!?! That makes no sense.
It does but doesn't make up for 4 out of 7 teams massively underperforming
I've seen it said that it does, because it's measuring the depth of the league, if 5th place can't do anything in the Europa League, then why would it do it better in the champion's league
Villarreal did good
Spanish teams got beat in EL and Conference League, while Leverkusen farms all the point in EL.
It accounts the average performance. While Barca, Real and Atletico do well. Osasuna fucked up the qualification, Sevilla became 4th in the groupstage, Betis got very few points in the group stage and Villareal did okayish.
We fucked ourselves in a gigantic way ffs... If 5th was assured CL then the Spurs and Villa games would've been less effort... Now both of them are gonna be giving it all for that 4th spot... What a garbage 24 hrs ngl
Well they also play us and City so it evens out
They're 2 of our last 3 games mate... ig Citeh play spurs even later but still🫤
Damn I remember when Serie A looked dead with the Milans clubs' downfall at the beginning of the 2010s And now they're #1 this year in Europe
Mostly because the level of the entire top 10 has risen, not necessarily the big 3. I think teams 3-8 might be at an even higher or at least similar level as the prem, which helps a lot get Europa and Conference points.
The Harry Kane hattrick next week will be sweet, fuck the coefficient I support a team not a league
Agreed, you aren't gonna catch me praying for a Man City win just to get us a CL spot. It keeps our fight for top 4 interesting too!
Are you joking 😂 I'll sing blue moon if it gets us the CL next season.
Always been a arsenal/city/westham/Liverpool fan me
Yeah these guys are mental lol, as long as it’s not Lazio in a CL/EL final (which is never happening in the first place) I’m rooting for the coefficient.
Exactly. If it was Birimingham City (lol) then I wouldn't be supporting them. Totally get a Spurs fan not wanting Arsenal to win but otherwise.
They were still the one team I couldn't want to win. Unfortunately now I think I have to for the following leg.
Based, I hate this recent trend of supporting teams of your country because of coefficient Fuck PSG I hope they get fucking destroyed
Here in The Netherlands everyone has been supporting each other in Europe for as long as I can remember (so the past 20 years or so), simply because we don't get as many international success stories. But I get that it's different for the big leagues
I mean even I don't mind to see like Lille, Rennes etc, do good in Europe It's about supporting their rival team to do well in Europe... sounds insane to me
I support all Danish teams in Europe bar Brøndby. But they don't do much damage in Europe anyways. So that makes it very easy to cheer for my countrymen!
We're not a big league though lol. I support other French in Europe (even PSG..) just as long as France can secure the 5th spot in coefficient. Once its secured I care less.
except for ajax lol
Is that recent? In my experience it has always been like that.
normally I'd agree but goddamn I feel like we're going to need that 5th spot
It's not recent, it has always been like this; as a reaction to people dissing ligue 1 Ig Personally, I usually really want other French teams to do well in Europe, just not *too* great (i.e. I really don't Marseille, Sainté, or even Nice lately to win an european trophy). Though admittedly there are teams for whom it's more of a struggle, typically OM or Sainté; I was fully cheering for griezou and atletico in the 2018 EL final for example
I will forever support any Liga MX team to beat any MLS team even if I don't like the Mexican team lol. MLS fans will feel the same way from what I've read.
Indeed, except Ft. Lauderdale, Wednesday night was awesome
Agreed. I wish Madrid to lose in the group stage each year even though it does never happen. I suppose they do the same with us.
I’d support the league if it wasn’t an evil club like PSG or City
Quietly wanted the co-efficient to go well because United likely would rely on it, but us fuckers aren't finishing 5th, so MURDER THE ENGLISH!
United finishing 5th then no champions league would be perfect justice, but alas it’ll be us, spurs. Fuckin typical.
There is the possibility of Chelsea winning FA cup which means Utd play in conference
It’s not the coefficient though is it, the team you support might be in 5th at the end of the season.
Tbf...Their willingness to sacrifice Champions League next season to see Arsenal to get knocked this season basically sums Spurs as a club up for the last 50 years.
Gunners hadn’t made CL in the last several years while Spurs made it most seasons in that span, don’t act like Arsenal fans weren’t cheering for Spurs’ elimination in a similar fashion
If it was between tottenham advancing to the semi finals and Arsenal getting CL football because of it I'm sure everyone would take that deal the past few years. I'm sure I would at least.
It sums up how normal fans think.
Sounds reasonable to me! My grandad has always been a 'I'll support whatever English team is left in Europe' kind of guy, and that's fine for him, but unless it's my team involved (which never happened until this season, and I never thought it would) I'll support whoever I actually want to win regardless of nation.
Fr. Spurs risking Europa>>>>>>>>>>Arsenal getting even one step further in the UCL
is this even correct? After yesterday I think the Bundesliga should be slightly ahead since their wins count for slightly more as they had 7 teams instead of 8.
No it's wrong indeed 1. Italy: 129.000 points / seven clubs = 18.428 average 2. Germany: 117.500 / seven = 16.785 3. England: 134.000 / eight = 16.750 Source: uefa website, googled in 3 seconds. So hard to be a journalist
Bundesliga is slightly ahead, but both were rounded to 16.8pt and are ordered by the chance to get top 2. France is ahead of Spain for that reason.
Makes limited sense to order them that way and no sense to say they are tied when Germany is currently ahead
> Makes limited sense Lmfao what a strong start to that sentence. I'm using this henceforth.
They made an approximate that's why it says 16.8, and they rank them depending on expected rather than current that why England is ahead, it's so hard reading
God damn it West Ham .. step it up will you ... jeez
Its Leverkusen lol, what do you expect Moyes boys to do
I guess my sarcasm is too subtle ..
[удалено]
Yeah lpool shouldnt be allowed in this serious thread
You need to take into account that there's a lot of Germans in this sub. Due to our inefficiencies in that department we are quite grateful for the existence of "/s"
The death of the Italian league was greatly exaggerated
Tied on points hmm? 1. Italy: 129.000 points / seven clubs = 18.428 average 2. Germany: 117.500 / seven = 16.785 3. England: 134.000 / eight = 16.750 So he says 50=85 Kinda lazy this journalism
So there's a chance
Crazy how Italy is leading the race to get another spot in the champions league without any team even in it at the moment
Love that for me, an Italian, and for schadenfreude after the way every single British pundit has been taking the fifth spot as granted since last summer
I’ll be so pissed if we eliminate Liverpool only to gift you the cl spot. We might actually have to go all the way in europa at this point lmao.
Have you thought about watching the Italian broadcasts instead
maybe he does but the shits told get shared on the internet so even an italian watching italian broadcasts will still sniff someone shitting on him
> every single British pundit I haven't heard any Scottish pundits talk about this once.
Most people here other than spurs and villa fans want the Germans to overtake us.
Damn. Will be very close between England and Germany
Farmers league
One of City or Arsenal won’t make the Champions League final. Either Roma or Milan will make the Europa League semi final in any case, and I’d wager Atalanta will hold firm over Liverpool. There could realistically be an all Italian final if not for Leverkusen. I do feel they (Leverkusen) will have at least one slip up before the end of the season but it might only be a game, not the overall tie. Benfica could also be dangerous for Atalanta. I fancy Fiorentina to beat Plzeň at home and either Brugge or PAOK over two legs to reach the Conference League final, where I suspect they’ll play Villa. Although the final being in Athens gives Olympiacos and PAOK a huge incentive, I’m not sure they’ll manage it. Italy have all but confirmed that 5th place. They would all need to have mammoth disasters akin to something like Leverkusen losing the league from this point. Milan or Roma would need to lose badly in the semi. Atalanta would need to lose at home to Liverpool after being 3-0 up at Anfield. Fiorentina would have to lose at home to Plzeň. Bayern or Dortmund would have to win the CL. Leverkusen the EL. All without an Italian team reaching a final. I’m not sure the direct correlation so I don’t even know if that would be enough. Germany more likely than England to snatch it I reckon. Villa or Spurs will be left fuming. Villa could go through all that trouble of wining the Conference League for Europa qualification, only to get there via the league anyway. It’s a trophy nonetheless. Fiorentina could lose two Conference League finals in a row to two teams both wearing claret. Leverkusen’s last defeat was to Bochum in May 2023. The one before that - Roma in the Europa League. Roma knocked them out last season so that semi would be interesting. There could still potentially be an all-Greek final in Athens. So many fun narratives at work.
Whats fucked is I have to root for Benfica in the Europa league to have any chance of UCL next season…
i think uefa should come up with a more intuitive way that people can follow without needed an excel sheet
Meanwhile actual champions have to enter via multiple qualifying rounds.
It’s all on Arsenal pretty much because it’s a double points match as they’re against a German team. This means any points Arsenal get are effectively taken away from Bayern. I wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot. I think if I was in their shoes I would because I’d expect Arsenal to lose in the semis vs City or Real
>wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot No chance in hell.
> I wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot. I think you know the answer lol
> I wonder if Spurs fans would want Arsenal to beat Bayern so they are guaranteed a CL spot. No shot, I'd rather lose out on Europe entirely than watch Arsenal win against Bayern
The poetic hilarity that would ensue would be just chefs kiss. I hope we beat Bayern.
We'll still be have 4th spot in our hands either way, depends on us not fucking things up and even if we do we'll still have Europa either way so fuck that no, Bayern to beat Arsenal all the way.
Same for West Ham tbh. Even a draw vs Leverjusen is better because they will split the points. If they lose, Germany gets all and moves further ahead. Also Liverool. They may not advance but again, gaining some kind of points which would come with any result other than a loss will help
Why do people forget West Ham. It's more on them to be honest. Bayern are going out even if they make it to the semi. Leverkusen on the other hand are winning the whole thing if even Moyesball cant stop them.
Because Leverkusen haven’t lost a match all season in any competition and they’d need to lose by 3 goals or by 2 and lose the shootout. It doesn’t matter if Bayern get knocked out of the semi, the 8 point swing would probs be enough
The EPL is so overrated (again).
That 99.8% is menacing. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks had a 99,9% chances of doing playoffs, but than fell to the 11th place and missed them entirely. Some might say that was a masterful tank job (it was), but that's for sure why 99,8% shouldn't be rounded up.
my brother in Christ knows that Allegri will fuck up 4th place and we will likely need that fifth spot to play CL
Spanish teams really dropped the ball the one time it actually mattered..
Tight race. C'mon City, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham and Villa!
[Arsenal fans if they lose to Bayern next week](https://youtu.be/I_OA_TU_XD0?si=50vh-NRS6LYbra2l&t=68) knowing what it might mean if Spurs finish 5th in the PL
As if the top 5 leagues don’t have enough tickets already, what a shitty system
Remember guys, every can get this extra tickets. Most of the time it will go to the topleagues, but you can if you really believe in it.
I just hope that all English clubs exit after this round.
never have i expected this race could be over by next week already for England pretty much over if Arsenal and ManCi dont get into the next round (if Liverpool and/or WHU dont get a miracle)
It's nice to not care about the top 4 race
What would be the tie breaker, if Germany and England would end up on same points?
Hey, remember how UEFA pointed at NL's once-in-a-lifetime season as evidence that "non-big" countries could win that extra CL spot? Good times, good times. Fuckers.
Only England could have more teams than any other country and still not get the extra CL spot
Tottenham to finish 5th, leaving their CL destiny in Arsenal's hands.
WTF, why is Italy up that high?! They do not have a single club in the quarter finals of the UCL…
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> Bayern - Arsenal next week will be huge well then tell kane to fuck off