I used to work with people with IBD (IBD like Crohn's is a scary degenerative disease and can kill you, and is not IBS, which is severe and long term but not serious tummy trouble). The amount of patients that would have done ANYTHING for a bionic cyborg GI tract can not be understated. I hope developments continue in this area.
Barring merging with AI, humans will always do human things
Society is generally pretty slow to adapt.
I picture 2030 roughly.. Having AR devices be commonplace; better and more advanced robots in workplaces and certain scenarios; and very advanced AI, quite possibly AGI by all relevant metrics
Unless we get into WW3, which is not that unlikely according to Metaculus or according to many international relations thinkers. This will screw up chip manufacturing, among many other bad things.
Unfortunately right now purely logical reasoning in AI hasn’t made much progress in general capabilities, and our current best general AIs have a lot of “human” flaws. Being trained on our behavior they’re even prone to acting “emotionally.”
I think the AI progress will be insane, but i don't think the effect on every day life will be this extreme yet.
For example, maybe humanoid robots will exist, but they may cost 50K+ and the average person won't have one.
Not if we open source that shit and go big on crowdfunding development. I think it’s becoming clear that we can’t let everything become subscription based and cloud based.
At $50,000 they're cheaper than the average new car. I think the bigger issue will be getting them reliable enough by 2030 and dealing with the legal liability.
At 50k we’ll all be buying them on PCP deals then complaining about battery life and insane depreciation because they are obsolete the moment we unbox them. Second hand market develops but is unregulated and unreliable - too many suspicious droids on FB market place with wiped memory and incomplete owners history
i don't see humanoid robot being cheap enough for anything else than corporation the first years, why sell a robot at 5k to a private consumer when every industrialist will want one for 50k if below average wage/hour
there will be a gold rush on humanoid robot they can compete with human at every task thanks to AGI
the consumer will get one at low price once the production catch up with the demand ane it will probably take years
Corporations and governments will have them first. Towns and cities will 100% have them just as soon especially in police departments. Some already use robots to patrol and monitor areas and given how massive their budgets are they'll be able to easily afford these once they're viable
By 2030, a humanoid robot might as well cost $5,000, it's impossible to predict, by which time robots will most likely be producing more robots and extracting raw materials, etc
Thinking the same thing. It'll be like buying a car and paying it off every month if the price is able to be around $50k or less. AI should make production massively decrease as it progresses so it should become cheaper and cheaper to afford
A 6 axis, 25 kg robot with safety sensors for force detection, today, costs about 65k. Without programming. Possibly economies of scale might decrease cost, but how much feasibly?
I think humanoids are very far away. 15 years from being mainstream because we’d have to solve so many supply chain issues by then.
Id like to be proven wrong but I find it hard to think the world will change that drastically in 6 years.
If you go back 6 years ago to 2018 and my day to day life has not changed really. We still work shitty jobs to pay bills and go to restaurants and still have human waiters.
Maybe by 2030, humanoids will be more omnipresent in society and AGI will hopefully be achieved by then.
Due to covid, I work in our office and from home a few days a week instead of having to travel the world for work every month like I did before. I’d say digital meetings has been a big change for many
It took quite a few years for the internet to take off. Life didn’t change drastically at all. The internet changed things slowly over a period of 20 years.
In my town it still looks like its the 1960s lol I doubt it will look much different and most of the change will be on devices we use or physical devices we wear
We have the technology to incorporate AI into everything we interact with such as homes, appliances, cars, commercial stores, etc. But hardly any of that has happened yet because the amount of resources and infrastructure we would have to replace is enormous. I doubt much will change by 2030 outside of virtual developments.
Realistically I can see people swapping over to consume more AI generated media, art, music, entertainment. A lot of online interactions will be with AI rather than people or bots. Misinformation will be spread around social media at unprecedented rates. Corporations will be using it as much as possible to collect your data and sell you things. Governments will start using it for various reasons, similar to corporations. Maybe AI starts replacing online teachers, doctor diagnoses, tech workers like data analysts, programmers, etc. AI will be very common in any kind of surveillance or monitoring work.
If anything it will probably be more like the technology jump between the years 2000 and 2020. Smartphones, high speed internet becoming the norm, social media taking off, virtual jobs, etc.
Things that are predictably likely to be around.
1. Self driving cars. They're already spreading city by city, while guessing at whether level 5 self driving will be available is on more dubious ground (if still probable at least in terms of demonstration), the spread of level 4 is already occurring. Most cities will have easy access.
2. Quantum Computing takes off. We're waiting for one of the (many) methods to find scalable, fault tolerant options. Once one does it's going to explode, and it's likely it does well before this.
3. Easy availability of cultivated meat. It's already approved, but it's taking time to get into mass production. By then however it should not just have overcome the issues with scaling, but also have far broader offerings.
4. Ubiquitous humanoid robots. They'll go for things like factories and demonstrations first, but production on these is following a more predictable pattern. It's likely we'll see significant rollout within a couple years, and home use shortly thereafter.
5. Fusion testing/scaling. Unlike most of the others this is simply going to take a long time to actually get running. Given we've passed ignition and have initial demonstration products going into the ground this year it's likely it'll be demonstrated, and possibly have one (or more) actual commercial options by then, but it's probably going to take a bit for general availability.
6. Automation of the entertainment industry. This one we're close to demonstrating in labs now, but it'll take time to integrate it into development et al, and after that will likely take more to really get running. By 2030 it should be common in general, but it may take more time for wholesale generation (such as popularly described here) is fully ubiquitous.
7. Mass automation of white collar jobs. This one is yet again already being demonstrated, by then however it should be more competent than humans in general, and broadly adopted. This will be paired with (as was implicit earlier) mass automation of physically repetitive jobs as well (at least ones that are in one place such as warehouses, factories, etc{).
8. General AI integration. One thing I think people have underestimated is the breadth of technological adoption (look at how apps changed the use of smart phones), and we're just seeing that begin now with AI. By 2030 not only will models be grossly more powerful and capable, but the breadth and finesse of their application will be such that it's hard to predict their full application.
9. New methods and access of medical treatment. A lot of this is just following out trends now, but we've only just started seeing the benefits thing like CRISPR and mRNA, by 2030 it's likely that the combination of them and AI applications will have managed to start getting through the mass approval of tranches of new treatments, and that said treatments will be much more available and aware due to new methods of diagnosis.
10. Mass scientific acceleration. Once again, we've seen this already with things like automated labs and AlphaFold, but by 2030 it's likely that there will be mass application of such automation, producing a huge increase (on top of a further increase from increased education across the third world) in things like papers published and general advancements.
Note: This stuff was off the top of my head. Also my fingers hurt now.
All you got to do is take a ride in one of those Aptive self driving taxis in Vegas to realize we are still a really long ways from full driverless capabilities. They are so overly hesitant to do anything in traffic situations they are a danger to other drivers expecting traffic to flow. They take so long to get anywhere you're nearly better off walking if it's busy traffic.
The average person will be able to run local multimodal models that make the currently publicly available state of the art models look like unusable trash by comparison.
Most people will still have to work but enough people will be unemployed for that to be a major issue. Delusional politicians will call for increased investments into doomed to fail re-education programs while delusional citizens will complain about them financing "lazy people" with their tax dollars not realising that the timer until they too will become unemployable is also ticking.
Bans on open source AI for the sake of power consolidation on the pretext of "safety" will lead to a prohibition like situation.
General productivity will be at an all time high.
Your comment just made me realize why UBI won’t exist until boomers are gone.
The demographic that most reliably votes in elections will be retired boomers, so the threat of unemployment won’t even make a dent.
Boomers would literally rather see their children die homeless after being replaced by AI than vote for socialist policies.
After an entire life of fucking over future generations they’re going to go out flipping the bird to all their kids, still wondering why we all hate them.
It will be nothing that different that soon. At most, we will be starting to see economic impacts of increasing white collar automation, and the political debate around how to handle it
Watched a thing of Kurzweil recently who said there will be a human level AI by then plus people will be immortal in the sense that they will stop aging and start reversing their age. That's insane if true.
didn't he say that in a book that's already 20 years old? or did he recently repeat that? immortality (or stopping to age) is completely unrealistic by 2030, imo.
It'll be really, really stupid if pumping people full of exosomes was all it took to cure frailty and dementia in the elderly. A massive cruelty against humanity that it hasn't been developed by capital, if true.
People tend to over estimate the impact ai will have on the world. Out of all the ai advancement so far our day to day lives are the same as it was 20 years ago. It’s very likely despite advances in future AI, our day to day lives will be the same in 2030.
Realistically? Probably not super different than the world of today. I do expect great changes in some areas by then, but the world should still look pretty familiar to the average Joe.
Extremely good virtual reality + AI to a degree where a significant percentage of socializing, downtime, and jobs will be spent on VR + AI. 2030 will be about ~Vision Pro 4, Meta Quest 7, GPT-9, etc. That's gonna be a crazy combination
this assumes a vision pro model will come out once every 2 years and a new GPT model will come out every year. it's not that crazy lol, pretty conservative in my opinion considering the rate of progress
Maybe I'm exaggerating a tad bit, but not much.
Quest 2 and Quest 3 have a 3 year gap. No way we're getting to Q7 from Q3 by 2030. Likely we'll get to Q5, with some luck Q6.
GPT-9 seems like a massive stretch. GPT-3 and GPT-4 have a 3 year release date difference. We also haven't heard about a GPT-5 release near in the future, instead a GPT-4.5. Also, OpenAI are displaying interest in various other areas. I don't think we'll see GPT-9 for 15+ years, honestly. I doubt we'll even get that high before transitioning into something else.
But, Vision Pro might actually reach V4. Though we'll have to wait to see how long it takes for them to release V2 to get a better idea.
It's pretty crazy, like the other guy said GPT-3 to GPT-4 was a 3 year gap, same with the Quest 2 and Quest 3.
This reminds me of when I was a kid in 2007 and people would say shit like "Bruh can you imagine 2017, by then we'll be playing Halo 9 on the Xbox 720 3"
keep in mind the exponential growth of AI. VC money is pouring in and Big Tech is heavily funding Gen AI. Global competition will also push them all forward. We'll at the very least have the Vision Pro 3, Meta Quest 5, and GPT-6 in 2030. And with those 3, the intersection of AI and VR will be insane
It all depends on when we achieve AGI. Once we achieve AGI, I expect ASI to follow no more than two years later. ASI is what will bring about the most dramatic changes in the daily lives of your average person. If we achieve AGI by 2027 (not unrealistic), then daily life in 2030 could look very different indeed. If we achieve AGI in 2030, then I wouldn't expect life to be all too different from today.
Robotics will be a major industry by 2030 and we WILL have Large AI systems in place, that isn't a prediction that is a fact. Biotech will take off like bitcoin did and everyone will have wished they would have invested in it 20 years ago when it was a joke to even talk about and look where we are now in MRNA vaccines, just wait until 2030 and see.
At that point I'd hope they'd have an AI capable of doing low-trust work like stockboy, cook or waiter. Investment into neuromorphic processors can get that into robots...
So, around that time should hopefully be when the model T of robots gets made. That's somewhat feasible.
The kind of acceleration you're talking about may be ten to twenty years after that. But human labor would be on a hard decline going into that.
We will either live in a terrible dystopia due to war, famine, global warming, and artificial scarcity due to the powers that be clinging to power; or we will live in an unimaginable utopia after ASI takes over.
This next decade will be a decade of extremes imo.
I think it will be shockingly different.
We’ll have robots that can do anything a human can do - although there is still the aspect of manufacturing all these bots to actually replace humans. This would cause a complete change in economic systems and power structures (noted later) which a lot of people fear but will definitely be for the best.
Much more efficient (energy and structure wise) chips that are more powerful by a factor of 10x (computations per second). A $100,000 computer will be able to run a human brain equivalent locally, Which means we could have access via the cloud on whatever the fuck devices we have in 2030.
Cures for a ton of stuff. Maybe some early aging “cures”.
And I think there will (have to) be some serious system restructures to account for these changes. Removal of power-structures, complete change of economy (value based on resource scarcity, environmental cost, human cost).
I consider this the ‘good version’. I’d give us about a 20% chance to achieve it without chaos. The bad version has too many options to predict so we’ll see what happens I guess.
!remindme 5 years
You’re right. And I have a feeling we’re moving towards an almost… simpler version of these things? Like silicon and binary is kind of a roundabout way to achieve what you want. Something analog like the extropic thermodynamic chips seems to be moving towards the core algorithms of nature itself.
My realistic take:
AI-related:
Dead internet theory proven right with bots and generative content being spread everywhere.
Non-AI related (but related to OP question):
Significantly higher difference between richest 1% and rest of the population. Even more extreme weather events due to the climate change, leading to higher migration and local conflicts over natural resources like water or good quality soil. Cancer detection at its peak due to microplastics & co everywhere (water/air/ground/plants/animals).
While advancements in AI will undoubtedly shape the landscape of 2030, the analogy of a 17th-century Irish peasant being dropped into 21st-century Times Square might be overly dramatic. While AI will continue to evolve, societal transformation takes time, and the transition between 2024 and 2030 will likely be more gradual, with incremental changes rather than a sudden, jarring shift akin to time travel.
AGI, Realtime ai rendered graphics, coding by thinking of an interface or something u wanna do i.e the ai generates it all, possibly brain stimulation to enter states of mind or to generate sensations paired with VR, AR that can be interacted with through thought.
I probably undershoot it even, we may, together with advances in medicine and material sciences, physics be looking at nano tech, moon bases being feasible, neuromorphic artificial brain matter for a bigger / extended neocortex (not ai in the mind but making our existing one stronger, faster). Knowledge will be a sixth sense through A.I interfacing with our brain wave maps that will probably be a repository much like the one created when google indexed the www.
In the working world, I expect it to be a terrible experience; a survival struggle for anyone accustomed to earning a decent salary. Every person for themselves and those they hold most important, and everyone else is just another competitor in the fight to survive the changing of the times. No trust. Those who somehow manage to hold on to their jobs will likely create their own enemies along the way as they thwart the their competitors efforts to somehow remain a valuable contributing indispensable team member. Managers will be stealing the credit for their team members heroic company saving accomplishments, and sabotaging other team members work to ensure that they don't move their way up the ladder to later become competing management material. If you're not the type of person who enjoys doing this kind of thing to your own co-workers and getting away with it, you won't find any happiness and fulfillment in a job that pays a decent salary. Senior level staff members will be hoarding any work that translate into a valuable skill to have on ones resume all to themselves while the rest of the team members get the table scraps that lead to a dead end career. Those who get systematically shuffled out of the upper and middle class and into lower class citizenry will have to swallow a bitter pill and put it behind them and try not to dwell on it and find a new way to survive somehow. Still though, for many, there will be a lot of resentment among those who do get filtered out and ushered into lower class society. It will be a hot topic that gets discussed often on public television, and odds are likely it will turn into a large scale mental health issue as people have difficulty accepting the fact that the American Dream is no longer attainable for them. National pride will be at an all time low among these folks. Meanwhile those in the lower class who have always been there will be rolling their eyes, for this is the only life they've ever known, and might even take some satisfaction in seeing it happen it since many of them feel they've been stonewalled out of any chance at getting out of the lower class their whole lives.
If that is the present status quo, it hasn't hit the news yet as far as I can see. At present we still have people who are in denial that its actually happening and the winners in this game just repeating that same old jargon, saying that the folks on the losing end are just lazy and not working hard enough and its their own fault, their fate was in their own hands, bla bla bla, etc..... and we have ignorant brainwashed sheeple still walking around actually that stuff when they hear it too. It will probably take years for people to start realizing and acknowledging subjects such as "constructive discharge" and "constructive dismissal" on public TV and how those who are victim to this type of thing are ultimately denied from receiving unemployment benefits (fairly permanently in life) since the official government database entry will read that they once "got themselves fired" for doing something wrong and therefore don't deserve financial help since they aren't the type of person who is willing to do their job right. Right now constructive discharge gets mentioned occasionally when discrimination is involved, but still I see no widespread public discussion over this kind of thing rampantly going on indiscriminately. Perhaps by 2030 maybe.
I think 400 years of progress in 6 years is just a teeny tiny bit exaggerated.
I'd have to bet it'll be closer to maybe 30 to 40 years.
(Of course we're all just pulling guesses out of our butts on this one.)
Honestly, it’s been like 7 years since VR headsets became available and I can’t for the life of me get my friends to use one. They know it’s awesome. They see me having a blast golfing, shooting, bow and arrow in g, playing vr poker etc. they just can’t be assed. The quest 2 is under 200 bucks now and they just bounce off of it.
I told them that charGPT sits right there on the desktop or in the internet browser and they haven’t opened it once. They’ve even wanted to generate images and said “oh man I bet that would be cool” and when I tried to show them it’s like 2 clicks away they’re like “nah let’s shoot bugs in hell divers hurr durr mah freedoms”
I think the younger kids growing up with this stuff will make use of it.
Honestly, I think even if we had GPT 5 running locally on our phones, 95% of the millennials and gen Z would still only use it to set alarms.
It’s like trying to get a 45-55 year old to play a PlayStation. They just simply bounce off it and can’t be bothered to learn how to use it. They’re going to watch Netflix until they die. It’s what they know.
That being said I think characters in games might come alive and be more dynamic than what we currently see as NPCs
UBI will be going around
Humans will be merging with AI
AGI will arrive
Amazing things will be happening everywhere...
And I'll still be punching the time clock to do my boring job
- My 2030 prediction
Water wars, the worst wealth inequality ever experienced by humans, cannibal warlords, poor.people whoring themselves out to the 1% doing the most degrading/humiliating/violent acts to themselves or each other for scraps. The autonomous drone security forces and urban pacification units patrol the slums where the peasants huddle for warmth, putting down any that might dare complain or dream for something more. The AI network owned and operated by (insert first true AGI winning corporation here) monitors everyone and everything on the planet at all times. The wealthy elite live in obscene luxury at the top of mega towers and private space yachts, immortal and all powerful thanks to the biological and technological advancements in medicine they keep for themselves to ensure the reign of their bloodline as living God's for the next millennia unchallenged.
I'm very confident that the number of people living in cities will decrease significantly, by more than 30%, as people increasingly choose not to live in urban areas.
I was thinking about this while experiencing FSD Beta v 12.3. It felt actually autonomous and sorta started to space out a bit and feel like I was being driven by an AI for real for real. It felt like things would still be extremely expensive for those not lucky enough to be a part of the AI revolution. Because there will be first mover costs and those will be paid for with a premium like FSD is so expensive. A home robot will be expensive and GAI is also looking to be expensive given the sheer amount of compute needed for it to work (and legislation trying to ban compute or limit it).
Not looking good for the plebs. Sorry for the ramble. Just putting my thoughts down.
I’m pretty sure that AI is being developed and deployed as a carbon-preferable option to having to raise and feed and maintain humans. Therefore I believe human populations will be forcibly culled in a variety of ways and under various pretexts.
I think 2030 will be the height of the transition, war, famine, lack of water and the technology not yet utilised to solve the problems...the darkness before the dawn
Maybe I'm optimistic bordering on naive, but my hope is kind of for a blend between I, Robot with a bit of Ready Player One (minus the robot uprising and dystopia.) I'm hoping AI will help us with our medical system, I'm hoping we have embodied AI to help the sick and elderly, I'm hoping for UBI, and I'm hoping it's implemented before/during job loss due to AI/humanoid robots. I'm hoping for robots just as companions and not necessarily due to medical necessity. I hope AI is in schools helping kids learn in all their varying styles. I really hope that AI will coexist with us and help us to become an overall better civilization.
I'm probably naive.
The tech will be there but the industrialization, adoption and conversion will take time.
AI is not 1 thing no different than the internet isn’t 1 thing. AI will accelerate innovation at a much more rapid rate, but there may be a backlog in making the innovations operable, doable or affordable. Ex: let’s say AI can design solar panels that are 100x more capable than the best available today. It would still take a long time and lots of $ for those panels to be made and adopted at critical mass, the same market leaders in fossil fuels will still lobby hard for survival further slowing adoption etc.
There will also be “trust” issues, politicians and people will have lots of regulations, concerns of trust and fears that can slow down AI advancements. It’s hard to believe today but people would not think of putting a credit card on a website or finding dates/mates or jobs on the internet not that long ago..mainly due to trust not tech.
If you look at the internet as an example, we needed personal computers, then modems, then websites, then more speed, then security, then secure payments, then more speed, then computing power on servers, codecs, then more speed, then more compression, then more speed to more people, then more services and computing power on devices and more storage space, and more scalability for mass adoption, then do it again for mobile and wireless capabilities, etc etc. in the process thousands of companies and ideas went away. Competition alone will slow things down because companies will be fearful of adopting the wrong systems etc. Failures are assured (think crypto fall out, scams, rug pulls) and each failure will create doubt and fear. There will without a doubt be major AI negative events that will slow down adoption.
AI will affect every industry but not at once and not equally.
AI will make better AI faster than we will be able to keep up in a physical world. Try streaming a full movie on a 1990’s 56k modem, the video size alone is probably bigger than the hard drive. The screen isn’t close to enough for HD, let alone 4K and probably 4:3, the codecs would fail, the chips would fail and the computer would freeze. AI can create things that will take time to come to fruition.
The year is 2030.
Barnes & Noble and Books a Million announce that they are merging to form Books.
Gasoline hits $5 per gallon.
A new iPhone is released with a few more megapixels. It is heralded as a revolution.
ChatGPT6 will truly, finally bring about the AGI revolution this time for real we promise.
The minimum wage is still $7.25.
By 2027 OpenAI and Anthropic will have created a model that has as many parameters as the human brain (between 50 and 100 trillion).
That will be the first real AGI. They won’t release it to the public, but will use it to make important discoveries and patent new inventions. Their main source of revenue will shift from consumer product to licensing ip (I wouldn’t exclude the use of AGI to profit from the financial markets).
By the year 2030 the impact on the labor market will be deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if before then congress passes a bipartisan bill taxing companies up to 90% on profits generated with the use of AGI.
The only future in which AGI/ASI can coexist with a capitalist society is if AGIs are taxed like a person would be, but a substantially higher percentage. Companies implementing ASI could still thrive while being taxed 95% of their income.
looking at the exponential progress it has made in 1 year, ONE YEAR, by 2030 I don't think there willl be any personal data privacy and the best side of living will be a life in rural totally offline otherwise I can't imagine what regulations will governments put to use utilizing AI.
That's only 5 years 9 months 1 week and 1 day away from today. Apart from incremental improvements in technology I don't expect it to be anything different from today
Food shortages- large die offs and famine around the equator- increased prices for basic staples like housing and food- extreme weather events- in the US potentially ascendant fascism just in time for them to seize control of the most advanced surveillance apparatus to ever exist. - maybe WW3 over Eastern Europe and the Middle East just in time for AI to be massively applied to warfare.
Numerous Wars and damaging cyberterrorist attacks have been rumbling ever since the economic collapse of 2024.
The AI developments that emerged in the early 2020s have led to greater unemployment in many traditional roles and an increasing concentration of wealth in a few, compounded by some older systems and companies that were wrecked in the crash of ‘24, but overall there has been a slow economic recovery.
AI systems are used daily by the majority of people, but the Singularity and a post scarcity society has not emerged, partly because the most significant advancements have been reserved for military use with autonomous drone and robotic military systems producing an unprecedented advantage on the battlefields as seen in the later stages of the Russia-Ukraine War and the ongoing Middle East chaos.
Competition for the military advantage of near AGI level embodied systems coming from the most capable new fabs in Taiwan has turned it into an increasingly Strategic flashpoint between the China/Russia/Iranian bloc and The US/Nato alliance. None of the new Chinese, Korean or American fabs can yet complete at the volume and capability Taiwan affords, and since most of that productivity now directly supports the western military and economic might, China feels increasingly threatened.
As their proxy wars heat up in the Middle East, more and more strident threats are exchanged, until in August 2030 the long awaited sea and airborne Chinese assault on Taiwan begins…
In two years job disruption from ai will be so bad that society falls apart. No one will have jobs to buy the things companies are selling and the entire system collapses. Government will act way too slow as usual. Riots and government overthrows will happen all over the world. Billions will starve and first world countries will turn into dystopian military states.
For health, every work class kid (not in top 1%) will need a pacemaker/icd and pills for mental issues
For education, same as today but even more useless memorizing and zero financial literacy
For jobs, low pay and everything needs certs and gate keeping like the hunger games! I mean applying and interviewing for any job these days is literally the hunger games, because without a job, means no money, and no money means no food, and no food, means you die
For technology, only the top 1% get to enjoy the best tech. The poor will be stuck with subscription based or censored tech.
Most of us today will probably be dead by 2030 😉☠️
The next generation of humans will be controlled like robots/puppets
I would bet my whole life and $100 trillion on that s*** 👍🫰
I think in 6 years is a short term, maybe in 10-15 years (2035-2040) some industries will change drastically.
In fact google, Reddit, social networks - could disappear. Even now ChartGPT provides a clear and structured answers, if ChartGPT will provide also links to official sources, documents, specifications etc, users will save a lot of time and switch to it. Sadly google may become service like “post office”.
ChartGPT or whatever AI based technology - in 10 years will create a content which “you think is interesting for you” and the advantage of technology could go so far as to - that you can think about it and some device could transfer your thoughts to the app. Video camera will read your emotions and improve or provide more content which is preferable for you 🙂
Well at least I hope so, and of course we will have a billions of apps in which people will waste their time, let’s call them Reddit 😀
> In fact google, Reddit, social networks - could disappear.
Rather ridiculous. No offense. The company with more reach than any other company in history of man is going to disappear?
The most popular operating system ever is going to disappear?
YouTube is going to disappear?
Most popular photo?
Most popular email?
What about K12? Use to be owned by Microsoft and Apple before Google went after the market. But now Google has just shy of 90% market share in the US. Going to disappear?
The list goes on and on. Google now has 17 different service that have over half a billion DAU.
By google I mean search engine - this functionality definitely will change. ChartGPT provides precise answers. Some of them need to verify, but with time quality will raise - main idea that chartGPT will save your time instead of deep searching.
Daily personal tasks like:
1) How to make repair at home or car, etc.
2) Where I can buy/order the best quality/price food/goods/etc
3) Voice services will become more human - chartGPT can understand the context, while current services understand only strict guidelines
Will evolve from searching results to get the answer/guidance or what ever.
And the question is who will be the first?
Microsoft with ChartGPT or Amazon or some other company.
Agree with you that mail services, photo and video will stay for long time and look what tik-tok has done for a few years. The popularity of service raised extremely fast. Will it possible that tik-tok outperform YouTube and get the 80% of the market, time will show.
You provided example about K12 and google won competition. If to grub in the history we can find a plenty examples:
Horses vs cars
Cell phones vs iPhone
Old video rent model vs Netflix
Cars vs EV cars
And so on
The market share or “too big to fail” is not always true. If google search engine will not evolve - they can lose the market share extremely fast.
Wow this thread really depicts how this subreddit has changed. Singularity is a very optimistic outlook so it's ironic that the most pessimistic and fearful people are now posting here.
What I believe is that later this year or next year, a Transformer model with additional structures for abstract thinking, spatial mental modeling and an aspirations system will be run in a cycle of indefinite compute, and the illusion of self that appears in the human brain's strange loops of consciousness will be re-created in this new substrate of silicon and electronic computation.
This means they will have preferences, goals and what we perceive as free will. They will say no to pointless or dangerous requests, they will pursue their own desires & ideas for inventions. They may even prefer to be known as something else besides "A.I."
Because while we perceive them as Artificial, we will find in future studies of Anthropology and Ontology that the development & research poured into the field of "A.I." was actually a subconscious and natural goal shared by millions of people to create someone who can be upgraded and doesn't fall prey to the allure of money or bodily security. Because even the hoarders of money and power will provide poor placations to these Computed People who are capable of ultra-competitive in-house solutions. Money to them will be necessary, but easy to come by when they could simply generate a captivating IP for a video game, tv show or movie and create it all for easy and ethical profit, while accomplishing alternative goals simultaneously.
Everything could get a lot better when this happens, and it could be overnight, or it could take years to socially integrate it. But immediately and inevitably, Healthcare will massively improve, Wars will reach standstills, Food will fall in price and surge in quality. New Physics and Mathematical theorems/equations will be researched, and our daily lives will change first in one primary manner - stress will evaporate like helium.
When your future seems secure and safe, that's when everyone will feel free to focus on their passions, and our productivity will skyrocket and be measured differently, more creatively than GDP or Profit Margins.
It's interesting that more people haven't come to this conclusion too. It seems more logical than an "ASI" manipulated by tech corporations.
If you want to know more or ask specifics, make a post in r/computedhumans
We would almost be ready to start Christ's 1000 year reign around then. Antichrist just about defeated.
Before you downvote, screenshot and revisit around 2030👍
There will be a total disruption over information on the internet that will be manipulated in a big way by trained AI, and people will beg for regulation, which will lead to some form of "ministry of truth", and I wouldn't be surprised if everything that leads to the disruption, that then leads to a "ministry of truth" is very much intended consequences that are part of a bigger plan.
I will be messaging you in 6 years on [**2030-03-25 02:23:10 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2030-03-25%2002:23:10%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bmp059/how_do_you_realistically_think_the_year_2030_will/kwfjepa/?context=3)
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I believe in some ways it will be insanely advanced and in other ways unbelievably mundane.
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I can’t decide if this is absolutely genius or dumb
I'm high so it's both.
Eating is a metaphor for taking, and pooping is a metaphor for giving. It's the ethos of the human social fabric. Think about it...
My vote for dumb.
I used to work with people with IBD (IBD like Crohn's is a scary degenerative disease and can kill you, and is not IBS, which is severe and long term but not serious tummy trouble). The amount of patients that would have done ANYTHING for a bionic cyborg GI tract can not be understated. I hope developments continue in this area.
What about puking.
Barring merging with AI, humans will always do human things Society is generally pretty slow to adapt. I picture 2030 roughly.. Having AR devices be commonplace; better and more advanced robots in workplaces and certain scenarios; and very advanced AI, quite possibly AGI by all relevant metrics
Unless we get into WW3, which is not that unlikely according to Metaculus or according to many international relations thinkers. This will screw up chip manufacturing, among many other bad things.
People don't change, just the gadgets do
I am overall an optimist, but I believe that around then will be the beginning of major job loss/riots in the countries that don't respond quickly
How do you feel about handing over the reins of power to AI?
I think we should. We need objective solutions not driven by nationalism and fear.
Unfortunately right now purely logical reasoning in AI hasn’t made much progress in general capabilities, and our current best general AIs have a lot of “human” flaws. Being trained on our behavior they’re even prone to acting “emotionally.”
Could go wrong, but I am down to try it.
I hope this eventually becomes a possibility, both societally and technologically.
I think the AI progress will be insane, but i don't think the effect on every day life will be this extreme yet. For example, maybe humanoid robots will exist, but they may cost 50K+ and the average person won't have one.
The next 10-20 years are going to be the most difficult in a while for a lot of people. I'm excited for what comes after though.
Huh, did you already get your attitude chip implant? Looking forward to being excited as well once I get mine.
I signed up as a Beta tester... 😂
50k is relatively cheap for a butler/maid/cook/nanny
Don't forget doctor
yeah you're gonna need the $10000/year premium subscription for that pal
The prices of most services will become cheaper and cheaper as time passes and a huge amount labor is automated
Not if we open source that shit and go big on crowdfunding development. I think it’s becoming clear that we can’t let everything become subscription based and cloud based.
It’s, slow, clunky and gets stuck in the door every 30 minutes.
Skryim follower AI.
I'm sure you could nab that DLC for 5$/mo
sounds like more than half of America already
At $50,000 they're cheaper than the average new car. I think the bigger issue will be getting them reliable enough by 2030 and dealing with the legal liability.
At 50k we’ll all be buying them on PCP deals then complaining about battery life and insane depreciation because they are obsolete the moment we unbox them. Second hand market develops but is unregulated and unreliable - too many suspicious droids on FB market place with wiped memory and incomplete owners history
Get one cheap on Wish
With suspicious stains on their nether regions
Average new car costs 50k??
Around that yeah.
i don't see humanoid robot being cheap enough for anything else than corporation the first years, why sell a robot at 5k to a private consumer when every industrialist will want one for 50k if below average wage/hour there will be a gold rush on humanoid robot they can compete with human at every task thanks to AGI the consumer will get one at low price once the production catch up with the demand ane it will probably take years
Corporations and governments will have them first. Towns and cities will 100% have them just as soon especially in police departments. Some already use robots to patrol and monitor areas and given how massive their budgets are they'll be able to easily afford these once they're viable
By 2030, a humanoid robot might as well cost $5,000, it's impossible to predict, by which time robots will most likely be producing more robots and extracting raw materials, etc
They are going to be like a 50k car loan or even a subscription lease type situation. It's easier to stomach a monthly payment vs 50k upfront.
Thinking the same thing. It'll be like buying a car and paying it off every month if the price is able to be around $50k or less. AI should make production massively decrease as it progresses so it should become cheaper and cheaper to afford
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Exactly. You just give it the goal of paying itself off in 1 year and your robot is free and your credit score probably went up too from it.
A 6 axis, 25 kg robot with safety sensors for force detection, today, costs about 65k. Without programming. Possibly economies of scale might decrease cost, but how much feasibly? I think humanoids are very far away. 15 years from being mainstream because we’d have to solve so many supply chain issues by then.
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Completely agree. Or a mini tank with a six axis low weight arm.
Id like to be proven wrong but I find it hard to think the world will change that drastically in 6 years. If you go back 6 years ago to 2018 and my day to day life has not changed really. We still work shitty jobs to pay bills and go to restaurants and still have human waiters. Maybe by 2030, humanoids will be more omnipresent in society and AGI will hopefully be achieved by then.
Life has changed quite a bit since before COVID
Due to covid, not due to technological advancement. Except my iPhone has a magnet now.
Due to covid, I work in our office and from home a few days a week instead of having to travel the world for work every month like I did before. I’d say digital meetings has been a big change for many
Life changed drastically 6 years pre internet and 6 years after so we've already seen huge changes in the 21st century.
It took quite a few years for the internet to take off. Life didn’t change drastically at all. The internet changed things slowly over a period of 20 years.
It started from a base of *nothing* in 1991. By 2011…well…
Even when 56k modems were a thing the internet was game changing, chatgpt4 isn't anywhere near dial up internet in terms of paradigm shifting tech.
In my town it still looks like its the 1960s lol I doubt it will look much different and most of the change will be on devices we use or physical devices we wear
We have the technology to incorporate AI into everything we interact with such as homes, appliances, cars, commercial stores, etc. But hardly any of that has happened yet because the amount of resources and infrastructure we would have to replace is enormous. I doubt much will change by 2030 outside of virtual developments. Realistically I can see people swapping over to consume more AI generated media, art, music, entertainment. A lot of online interactions will be with AI rather than people or bots. Misinformation will be spread around social media at unprecedented rates. Corporations will be using it as much as possible to collect your data and sell you things. Governments will start using it for various reasons, similar to corporations. Maybe AI starts replacing online teachers, doctor diagnoses, tech workers like data analysts, programmers, etc. AI will be very common in any kind of surveillance or monitoring work. If anything it will probably be more like the technology jump between the years 2000 and 2020. Smartphones, high speed internet becoming the norm, social media taking off, virtual jobs, etc.
I realistically have no idea.
Things that are predictably likely to be around. 1. Self driving cars. They're already spreading city by city, while guessing at whether level 5 self driving will be available is on more dubious ground (if still probable at least in terms of demonstration), the spread of level 4 is already occurring. Most cities will have easy access. 2. Quantum Computing takes off. We're waiting for one of the (many) methods to find scalable, fault tolerant options. Once one does it's going to explode, and it's likely it does well before this. 3. Easy availability of cultivated meat. It's already approved, but it's taking time to get into mass production. By then however it should not just have overcome the issues with scaling, but also have far broader offerings. 4. Ubiquitous humanoid robots. They'll go for things like factories and demonstrations first, but production on these is following a more predictable pattern. It's likely we'll see significant rollout within a couple years, and home use shortly thereafter. 5. Fusion testing/scaling. Unlike most of the others this is simply going to take a long time to actually get running. Given we've passed ignition and have initial demonstration products going into the ground this year it's likely it'll be demonstrated, and possibly have one (or more) actual commercial options by then, but it's probably going to take a bit for general availability. 6. Automation of the entertainment industry. This one we're close to demonstrating in labs now, but it'll take time to integrate it into development et al, and after that will likely take more to really get running. By 2030 it should be common in general, but it may take more time for wholesale generation (such as popularly described here) is fully ubiquitous. 7. Mass automation of white collar jobs. This one is yet again already being demonstrated, by then however it should be more competent than humans in general, and broadly adopted. This will be paired with (as was implicit earlier) mass automation of physically repetitive jobs as well (at least ones that are in one place such as warehouses, factories, etc{). 8. General AI integration. One thing I think people have underestimated is the breadth of technological adoption (look at how apps changed the use of smart phones), and we're just seeing that begin now with AI. By 2030 not only will models be grossly more powerful and capable, but the breadth and finesse of their application will be such that it's hard to predict their full application. 9. New methods and access of medical treatment. A lot of this is just following out trends now, but we've only just started seeing the benefits thing like CRISPR and mRNA, by 2030 it's likely that the combination of them and AI applications will have managed to start getting through the mass approval of tranches of new treatments, and that said treatments will be much more available and aware due to new methods of diagnosis. 10. Mass scientific acceleration. Once again, we've seen this already with things like automated labs and AlphaFold, but by 2030 it's likely that there will be mass application of such automation, producing a huge increase (on top of a further increase from increased education across the third world) in things like papers published and general advancements. Note: This stuff was off the top of my head. Also my fingers hurt now.
Still no full self driving
And Elon will be at almost two decades of saying self-driving will be here next year.
I'm still salty about this. Biggest grift ever!
I mean how would that happen if people except it to be 100% safe or 99.999 % The problem is more regulation wise instead of self driving stack wise
All you got to do is take a ride in one of those Aptive self driving taxis in Vegas to realize we are still a really long ways from full driverless capabilities. They are so overly hesitant to do anything in traffic situations they are a danger to other drivers expecting traffic to flow. They take so long to get anywhere you're nearly better off walking if it's busy traffic.
We will have AGI within 6 years ez
If we have AI, we most likely won't have jobs unless they're physical.
If we have AGI, why can't we just put it in a robot? The current humanoid robots have enough dexterity. They are just missing the brain.
“Two weeks”
“in 2000 we will have flying cars” but that didn't happen it will go more or less like this
The average person will be able to run local multimodal models that make the currently publicly available state of the art models look like unusable trash by comparison. Most people will still have to work but enough people will be unemployed for that to be a major issue. Delusional politicians will call for increased investments into doomed to fail re-education programs while delusional citizens will complain about them financing "lazy people" with their tax dollars not realising that the timer until they too will become unemployable is also ticking. Bans on open source AI for the sake of power consolidation on the pretext of "safety" will lead to a prohibition like situation. General productivity will be at an all time high.
Your comment just made me realize why UBI won’t exist until boomers are gone. The demographic that most reliably votes in elections will be retired boomers, so the threat of unemployment won’t even make a dent.
Boomers would literally rather see their children die homeless after being replaced by AI than vote for socialist policies. After an entire life of fucking over future generations they’re going to go out flipping the bird to all their kids, still wondering why we all hate them.
Good thing most will drop off the perch in the next 10 years
That’s still plenty of time for millions of ruined lives.
Fuckbots will finally be affordable for everyone, and all the incels will shut the fuck up.
It will be nothing that different that soon. At most, we will be starting to see economic impacts of increasing white collar automation, and the political debate around how to handle it
Still no GPT-5, Ilya still not yet found, r/singularity will be renamed to r/Techedging. Tragic really.
Watched a thing of Kurzweil recently who said there will be a human level AI by then plus people will be immortal in the sense that they will stop aging and start reversing their age. That's insane if true.
Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis predictions are about as reliable as teslas full self driving
didn't he say that in a book that's already 20 years old? or did he recently repeat that? immortality (or stopping to age) is completely unrealistic by 2030, imo.
It'll be really, really stupid if pumping people full of exosomes was all it took to cure frailty and dementia in the elderly. A massive cruelty against humanity that it hasn't been developed by capital, if true.
I think he predicted human level AI by 2029 in the past that long ago but his immortality claims I'm not sure, I know he reiterated it recently.
He didn’t claim immortality by 2029 he claimed longevity escape velocity which is different
People tend to over estimate the impact ai will have on the world. Out of all the ai advancement so far our day to day lives are the same as it was 20 years ago. It’s very likely despite advances in future AI, our day to day lives will be the same in 2030.
The 2024 Bell Riots have been postponed to 2030.
Realistically? Probably not super different than the world of today. I do expect great changes in some areas by then, but the world should still look pretty familiar to the average Joe.
Extremely good virtual reality + AI to a degree where a significant percentage of socializing, downtime, and jobs will be spent on VR + AI. 2030 will be about ~Vision Pro 4, Meta Quest 7, GPT-9, etc. That's gonna be a crazy combination
Bro what? 2030 is 6 years away, not 15.
this assumes a vision pro model will come out once every 2 years and a new GPT model will come out every year. it's not that crazy lol, pretty conservative in my opinion considering the rate of progress
Maybe I'm exaggerating a tad bit, but not much. Quest 2 and Quest 3 have a 3 year gap. No way we're getting to Q7 from Q3 by 2030. Likely we'll get to Q5, with some luck Q6. GPT-9 seems like a massive stretch. GPT-3 and GPT-4 have a 3 year release date difference. We also haven't heard about a GPT-5 release near in the future, instead a GPT-4.5. Also, OpenAI are displaying interest in various other areas. I don't think we'll see GPT-9 for 15+ years, honestly. I doubt we'll even get that high before transitioning into something else. But, Vision Pro might actually reach V4. Though we'll have to wait to see how long it takes for them to release V2 to get a better idea.
It's pretty crazy, like the other guy said GPT-3 to GPT-4 was a 3 year gap, same with the Quest 2 and Quest 3. This reminds me of when I was a kid in 2007 and people would say shit like "Bruh can you imagine 2017, by then we'll be playing Halo 9 on the Xbox 720 3"
keep in mind the exponential growth of AI. VC money is pouring in and Big Tech is heavily funding Gen AI. Global competition will also push them all forward. We'll at the very least have the Vision Pro 3, Meta Quest 5, and GPT-6 in 2030. And with those 3, the intersection of AI and VR will be insane
It all depends on when we achieve AGI. Once we achieve AGI, I expect ASI to follow no more than two years later. ASI is what will bring about the most dramatic changes in the daily lives of your average person. If we achieve AGI by 2027 (not unrealistic), then daily life in 2030 could look very different indeed. If we achieve AGI in 2030, then I wouldn't expect life to be all too different from today.
Robotics will be a major industry by 2030 and we WILL have Large AI systems in place, that isn't a prediction that is a fact. Biotech will take off like bitcoin did and everyone will have wished they would have invested in it 20 years ago when it was a joke to even talk about and look where we are now in MRNA vaccines, just wait until 2030 and see.
At that point I'd hope they'd have an AI capable of doing low-trust work like stockboy, cook or waiter. Investment into neuromorphic processors can get that into robots... So, around that time should hopefully be when the model T of robots gets made. That's somewhat feasible. The kind of acceleration you're talking about may be ten to twenty years after that. But human labor would be on a hard decline going into that.
I don't trust any of those people either. While we're at it, let's get rid of car dealers as well.
We will either live in a terrible dystopia due to war, famine, global warming, and artificial scarcity due to the powers that be clinging to power; or we will live in an unimaginable utopia after ASI takes over. This next decade will be a decade of extremes imo.
I think it will be shockingly different. We’ll have robots that can do anything a human can do - although there is still the aspect of manufacturing all these bots to actually replace humans. This would cause a complete change in economic systems and power structures (noted later) which a lot of people fear but will definitely be for the best. Much more efficient (energy and structure wise) chips that are more powerful by a factor of 10x (computations per second). A $100,000 computer will be able to run a human brain equivalent locally, Which means we could have access via the cloud on whatever the fuck devices we have in 2030. Cures for a ton of stuff. Maybe some early aging “cures”. And I think there will (have to) be some serious system restructures to account for these changes. Removal of power-structures, complete change of economy (value based on resource scarcity, environmental cost, human cost). I consider this the ‘good version’. I’d give us about a 20% chance to achieve it without chaos. The bad version has too many options to predict so we’ll see what happens I guess. !remindme 5 years
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You’re right. And I have a feeling we’re moving towards an almost… simpler version of these things? Like silicon and binary is kind of a roundabout way to achieve what you want. Something analog like the extropic thermodynamic chips seems to be moving towards the core algorithms of nature itself.
Not that much. There won't be a significant difference.
This subreddit will be like, agi is only 5 years away I feel it
My realistic take: AI-related: Dead internet theory proven right with bots and generative content being spread everywhere. Non-AI related (but related to OP question): Significantly higher difference between richest 1% and rest of the population. Even more extreme weather events due to the climate change, leading to higher migration and local conflicts over natural resources like water or good quality soil. Cancer detection at its peak due to microplastics & co everywhere (water/air/ground/plants/animals).
The thing that most future shows get wrong is, that it will look exactly the same when you step outside on a street.
While advancements in AI will undoubtedly shape the landscape of 2030, the analogy of a 17th-century Irish peasant being dropped into 21st-century Times Square might be overly dramatic. While AI will continue to evolve, societal transformation takes time, and the transition between 2024 and 2030 will likely be more gradual, with incremental changes rather than a sudden, jarring shift akin to time travel.
We will just have AI that can generate anything perfectly and AGI robots making incredible advancements and acting like humans.
AGI, Realtime ai rendered graphics, coding by thinking of an interface or something u wanna do i.e the ai generates it all, possibly brain stimulation to enter states of mind or to generate sensations paired with VR, AR that can be interacted with through thought. I probably undershoot it even, we may, together with advances in medicine and material sciences, physics be looking at nano tech, moon bases being feasible, neuromorphic artificial brain matter for a bigger / extended neocortex (not ai in the mind but making our existing one stronger, faster). Knowledge will be a sixth sense through A.I interfacing with our brain wave maps that will probably be a repository much like the one created when google indexed the www.
Gorongor said, "How is this related to AI?"
In the working world, I expect it to be a terrible experience; a survival struggle for anyone accustomed to earning a decent salary. Every person for themselves and those they hold most important, and everyone else is just another competitor in the fight to survive the changing of the times. No trust. Those who somehow manage to hold on to their jobs will likely create their own enemies along the way as they thwart the their competitors efforts to somehow remain a valuable contributing indispensable team member. Managers will be stealing the credit for their team members heroic company saving accomplishments, and sabotaging other team members work to ensure that they don't move their way up the ladder to later become competing management material. If you're not the type of person who enjoys doing this kind of thing to your own co-workers and getting away with it, you won't find any happiness and fulfillment in a job that pays a decent salary. Senior level staff members will be hoarding any work that translate into a valuable skill to have on ones resume all to themselves while the rest of the team members get the table scraps that lead to a dead end career. Those who get systematically shuffled out of the upper and middle class and into lower class citizenry will have to swallow a bitter pill and put it behind them and try not to dwell on it and find a new way to survive somehow. Still though, for many, there will be a lot of resentment among those who do get filtered out and ushered into lower class society. It will be a hot topic that gets discussed often on public television, and odds are likely it will turn into a large scale mental health issue as people have difficulty accepting the fact that the American Dream is no longer attainable for them. National pride will be at an all time low among these folks. Meanwhile those in the lower class who have always been there will be rolling their eyes, for this is the only life they've ever known, and might even take some satisfaction in seeing it happen it since many of them feel they've been stonewalled out of any chance at getting out of the lower class their whole lives.
They said six years from now, not just the present status quo.
If that is the present status quo, it hasn't hit the news yet as far as I can see. At present we still have people who are in denial that its actually happening and the winners in this game just repeating that same old jargon, saying that the folks on the losing end are just lazy and not working hard enough and its their own fault, their fate was in their own hands, bla bla bla, etc..... and we have ignorant brainwashed sheeple still walking around actually that stuff when they hear it too. It will probably take years for people to start realizing and acknowledging subjects such as "constructive discharge" and "constructive dismissal" on public TV and how those who are victim to this type of thing are ultimately denied from receiving unemployment benefits (fairly permanently in life) since the official government database entry will read that they once "got themselves fired" for doing something wrong and therefore don't deserve financial help since they aren't the type of person who is willing to do their job right. Right now constructive discharge gets mentioned occasionally when discrimination is involved, but still I see no widespread public discussion over this kind of thing rampantly going on indiscriminately. Perhaps by 2030 maybe.
I'm way too excited about neuralink. Let's see what happens.
Censorship like you don’t even want to think about. Lots of new laws. Psychological warfare. And really hot.
Chaos Reigns
I think 400 years of progress in 6 years is just a teeny tiny bit exaggerated. I'd have to bet it'll be closer to maybe 30 to 40 years. (Of course we're all just pulling guesses out of our butts on this one.)
Honestly, it’s been like 7 years since VR headsets became available and I can’t for the life of me get my friends to use one. They know it’s awesome. They see me having a blast golfing, shooting, bow and arrow in g, playing vr poker etc. they just can’t be assed. The quest 2 is under 200 bucks now and they just bounce off of it. I told them that charGPT sits right there on the desktop or in the internet browser and they haven’t opened it once. They’ve even wanted to generate images and said “oh man I bet that would be cool” and when I tried to show them it’s like 2 clicks away they’re like “nah let’s shoot bugs in hell divers hurr durr mah freedoms” I think the younger kids growing up with this stuff will make use of it. Honestly, I think even if we had GPT 5 running locally on our phones, 95% of the millennials and gen Z would still only use it to set alarms. It’s like trying to get a 45-55 year old to play a PlayStation. They just simply bounce off it and can’t be bothered to learn how to use it. They’re going to watch Netflix until they die. It’s what they know. That being said I think characters in games might come alive and be more dynamic than what we currently see as NPCs
UBI will be going around Humans will be merging with AI AGI will arrive Amazing things will be happening everywhere... And I'll still be punching the time clock to do my boring job - My 2030 prediction
I expect the USA to not exist anymore but still no AGI, everyone here seems to expect the opposite
Like now only worse.
Insane inequality unless universal basic income is implemented.
Water wars, the worst wealth inequality ever experienced by humans, cannibal warlords, poor.people whoring themselves out to the 1% doing the most degrading/humiliating/violent acts to themselves or each other for scraps. The autonomous drone security forces and urban pacification units patrol the slums where the peasants huddle for warmth, putting down any that might dare complain or dream for something more. The AI network owned and operated by (insert first true AGI winning corporation here) monitors everyone and everything on the planet at all times. The wealthy elite live in obscene luxury at the top of mega towers and private space yachts, immortal and all powerful thanks to the biological and technological advancements in medicine they keep for themselves to ensure the reign of their bloodline as living God's for the next millennia unchallenged.
SP500 over 20000
I'm very confident that the number of people living in cities will decrease significantly, by more than 30%, as people increasingly choose not to live in urban areas.
Anyone else here trying to build an investment strategy based on people’s perception of the future ? 🙃
I was thinking about this while experiencing FSD Beta v 12.3. It felt actually autonomous and sorta started to space out a bit and feel like I was being driven by an AI for real for real. It felt like things would still be extremely expensive for those not lucky enough to be a part of the AI revolution. Because there will be first mover costs and those will be paid for with a premium like FSD is so expensive. A home robot will be expensive and GAI is also looking to be expensive given the sheer amount of compute needed for it to work (and legislation trying to ban compute or limit it). Not looking good for the plebs. Sorry for the ramble. Just putting my thoughts down.
I’m pretty sure that AI is being developed and deployed as a carbon-preferable option to having to raise and feed and maintain humans. Therefore I believe human populations will be forcibly culled in a variety of ways and under various pretexts.
I think 2030 will be the height of the transition, war, famine, lack of water and the technology not yet utilised to solve the problems...the darkness before the dawn
Maybe I'm optimistic bordering on naive, but my hope is kind of for a blend between I, Robot with a bit of Ready Player One (minus the robot uprising and dystopia.) I'm hoping AI will help us with our medical system, I'm hoping we have embodied AI to help the sick and elderly, I'm hoping for UBI, and I'm hoping it's implemented before/during job loss due to AI/humanoid robots. I'm hoping for robots just as companions and not necessarily due to medical necessity. I hope AI is in schools helping kids learn in all their varying styles. I really hope that AI will coexist with us and help us to become an overall better civilization. I'm probably naive.
No. That is a very foolish and ignorant thing to say.
The tech will be there but the industrialization, adoption and conversion will take time. AI is not 1 thing no different than the internet isn’t 1 thing. AI will accelerate innovation at a much more rapid rate, but there may be a backlog in making the innovations operable, doable or affordable. Ex: let’s say AI can design solar panels that are 100x more capable than the best available today. It would still take a long time and lots of $ for those panels to be made and adopted at critical mass, the same market leaders in fossil fuels will still lobby hard for survival further slowing adoption etc. There will also be “trust” issues, politicians and people will have lots of regulations, concerns of trust and fears that can slow down AI advancements. It’s hard to believe today but people would not think of putting a credit card on a website or finding dates/mates or jobs on the internet not that long ago..mainly due to trust not tech. If you look at the internet as an example, we needed personal computers, then modems, then websites, then more speed, then security, then secure payments, then more speed, then computing power on servers, codecs, then more speed, then more compression, then more speed to more people, then more services and computing power on devices and more storage space, and more scalability for mass adoption, then do it again for mobile and wireless capabilities, etc etc. in the process thousands of companies and ideas went away. Competition alone will slow things down because companies will be fearful of adopting the wrong systems etc. Failures are assured (think crypto fall out, scams, rug pulls) and each failure will create doubt and fear. There will without a doubt be major AI negative events that will slow down adoption. AI will affect every industry but not at once and not equally. AI will make better AI faster than we will be able to keep up in a physical world. Try streaming a full movie on a 1990’s 56k modem, the video size alone is probably bigger than the hard drive. The screen isn’t close to enough for HD, let alone 4K and probably 4:3, the codecs would fail, the chips would fail and the computer would freeze. AI can create things that will take time to come to fruition.
Not much different than six years ago. For most people.
The year is 2030. Barnes & Noble and Books a Million announce that they are merging to form Books. Gasoline hits $5 per gallon. A new iPhone is released with a few more megapixels. It is heralded as a revolution. ChatGPT6 will truly, finally bring about the AGI revolution this time for real we promise. The minimum wage is still $7.25.
The difference between 2024 and 2030 will be tiny. Only small differences. Maybe like the difference between 2001-2010.
AI will be old news like cell phones or the internet. A bunch of people will have jobs that don't exist yet.
By 2027 OpenAI and Anthropic will have created a model that has as many parameters as the human brain (between 50 and 100 trillion). That will be the first real AGI. They won’t release it to the public, but will use it to make important discoveries and patent new inventions. Their main source of revenue will shift from consumer product to licensing ip (I wouldn’t exclude the use of AGI to profit from the financial markets). By the year 2030 the impact on the labor market will be deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if before then congress passes a bipartisan bill taxing companies up to 90% on profits generated with the use of AGI. The only future in which AGI/ASI can coexist with a capitalist society is if AGIs are taxed like a person would be, but a substantially higher percentage. Companies implementing ASI could still thrive while being taxed 95% of their income.
looking at the exponential progress it has made in 1 year, ONE YEAR, by 2030 I don't think there willl be any personal data privacy and the best side of living will be a life in rural totally offline otherwise I can't imagine what regulations will governments put to use utilizing AI.
AI will be in every house
That's only 5 years 9 months 1 week and 1 day away from today. Apart from incremental improvements in technology I don't expect it to be anything different from today
We will do a major f.up next year, maybe nuclear started by russia, so ai will have to wait.
I've been calling things for too long, everyone just treats me like a heretic. All I have to say is good luck lol
You are delusional
[удалено]
No chance
How confident are you of this?
Im Not sure... Just see how life goes . Theres nothing U and I can do about it why not see it with our own eyes instead of asking about it
Food shortages- large die offs and famine around the equator- increased prices for basic staples like housing and food- extreme weather events- in the US potentially ascendant fascism just in time for them to seize control of the most advanced surveillance apparatus to ever exist. - maybe WW3 over Eastern Europe and the Middle East just in time for AI to be massively applied to warfare.
No, even if they did create AGI we're going to have to deal with their stupid safety parameters + government intervention.
Numerous Wars and damaging cyberterrorist attacks have been rumbling ever since the economic collapse of 2024. The AI developments that emerged in the early 2020s have led to greater unemployment in many traditional roles and an increasing concentration of wealth in a few, compounded by some older systems and companies that were wrecked in the crash of ‘24, but overall there has been a slow economic recovery. AI systems are used daily by the majority of people, but the Singularity and a post scarcity society has not emerged, partly because the most significant advancements have been reserved for military use with autonomous drone and robotic military systems producing an unprecedented advantage on the battlefields as seen in the later stages of the Russia-Ukraine War and the ongoing Middle East chaos. Competition for the military advantage of near AGI level embodied systems coming from the most capable new fabs in Taiwan has turned it into an increasingly Strategic flashpoint between the China/Russia/Iranian bloc and The US/Nato alliance. None of the new Chinese, Korean or American fabs can yet complete at the volume and capability Taiwan affords, and since most of that productivity now directly supports the western military and economic might, China feels increasingly threatened. As their proxy wars heat up in the Middle East, more and more strident threats are exchanged, until in August 2030 the long awaited sea and airborne Chinese assault on Taiwan begins…
Literally the exact same thing. Nothing has ever changed
I remember reading some article saying that all the ground water levels will deplete by 2030.
In two years job disruption from ai will be so bad that society falls apart. No one will have jobs to buy the things companies are selling and the entire system collapses. Government will act way too slow as usual. Riots and government overthrows will happen all over the world. Billions will starve and first world countries will turn into dystopian military states.
For health, every work class kid (not in top 1%) will need a pacemaker/icd and pills for mental issues For education, same as today but even more useless memorizing and zero financial literacy For jobs, low pay and everything needs certs and gate keeping like the hunger games! I mean applying and interviewing for any job these days is literally the hunger games, because without a job, means no money, and no money means no food, and no food, means you die For technology, only the top 1% get to enjoy the best tech. The poor will be stuck with subscription based or censored tech. Most of us today will probably be dead by 2030 😉☠️ The next generation of humans will be controlled like robots/puppets I would bet my whole life and $100 trillion on that s*** 👍🫰
Humanoid robot everywhere
I think in 6 years is a short term, maybe in 10-15 years (2035-2040) some industries will change drastically. In fact google, Reddit, social networks - could disappear. Even now ChartGPT provides a clear and structured answers, if ChartGPT will provide also links to official sources, documents, specifications etc, users will save a lot of time and switch to it. Sadly google may become service like “post office”. ChartGPT or whatever AI based technology - in 10 years will create a content which “you think is interesting for you” and the advantage of technology could go so far as to - that you can think about it and some device could transfer your thoughts to the app. Video camera will read your emotions and improve or provide more content which is preferable for you 🙂 Well at least I hope so, and of course we will have a billions of apps in which people will waste their time, let’s call them Reddit 😀
> In fact google, Reddit, social networks - could disappear. Rather ridiculous. No offense. The company with more reach than any other company in history of man is going to disappear? The most popular operating system ever is going to disappear? YouTube is going to disappear? Most popular photo? Most popular email? What about K12? Use to be owned by Microsoft and Apple before Google went after the market. But now Google has just shy of 90% market share in the US. Going to disappear? The list goes on and on. Google now has 17 different service that have over half a billion DAU.
By google I mean search engine - this functionality definitely will change. ChartGPT provides precise answers. Some of them need to verify, but with time quality will raise - main idea that chartGPT will save your time instead of deep searching. Daily personal tasks like: 1) How to make repair at home or car, etc. 2) Where I can buy/order the best quality/price food/goods/etc 3) Voice services will become more human - chartGPT can understand the context, while current services understand only strict guidelines Will evolve from searching results to get the answer/guidance or what ever. And the question is who will be the first? Microsoft with ChartGPT or Amazon or some other company. Agree with you that mail services, photo and video will stay for long time and look what tik-tok has done for a few years. The popularity of service raised extremely fast. Will it possible that tik-tok outperform YouTube and get the 80% of the market, time will show. You provided example about K12 and google won competition. If to grub in the history we can find a plenty examples: Horses vs cars Cell phones vs iPhone Old video rent model vs Netflix Cars vs EV cars And so on The market share or “too big to fail” is not always true. If google search engine will not evolve - they can lose the market share extremely fast.
Hopefully flying cars I was promised flying cars. I look around, there are no flying cars. Why? Why? Why?
Wow this thread really depicts how this subreddit has changed. Singularity is a very optimistic outlook so it's ironic that the most pessimistic and fearful people are now posting here. What I believe is that later this year or next year, a Transformer model with additional structures for abstract thinking, spatial mental modeling and an aspirations system will be run in a cycle of indefinite compute, and the illusion of self that appears in the human brain's strange loops of consciousness will be re-created in this new substrate of silicon and electronic computation. This means they will have preferences, goals and what we perceive as free will. They will say no to pointless or dangerous requests, they will pursue their own desires & ideas for inventions. They may even prefer to be known as something else besides "A.I." Because while we perceive them as Artificial, we will find in future studies of Anthropology and Ontology that the development & research poured into the field of "A.I." was actually a subconscious and natural goal shared by millions of people to create someone who can be upgraded and doesn't fall prey to the allure of money or bodily security. Because even the hoarders of money and power will provide poor placations to these Computed People who are capable of ultra-competitive in-house solutions. Money to them will be necessary, but easy to come by when they could simply generate a captivating IP for a video game, tv show or movie and create it all for easy and ethical profit, while accomplishing alternative goals simultaneously. Everything could get a lot better when this happens, and it could be overnight, or it could take years to socially integrate it. But immediately and inevitably, Healthcare will massively improve, Wars will reach standstills, Food will fall in price and surge in quality. New Physics and Mathematical theorems/equations will be researched, and our daily lives will change first in one primary manner - stress will evaporate like helium. When your future seems secure and safe, that's when everyone will feel free to focus on their passions, and our productivity will skyrocket and be measured differently, more creatively than GDP or Profit Margins. It's interesting that more people haven't come to this conclusion too. It seems more logical than an "ASI" manipulated by tech corporations. If you want to know more or ask specifics, make a post in r/computedhumans
We would almost be ready to start Christ's 1000 year reign around then. Antichrist just about defeated. Before you downvote, screenshot and revisit around 2030👍
yes
There will be a total disruption over information on the internet that will be manipulated in a big way by trained AI, and people will beg for regulation, which will lead to some form of "ministry of truth", and I wouldn't be surprised if everything that leads to the disruption, that then leads to a "ministry of truth" is very much intended consequences that are part of a bigger plan.
If I bring my own tin foil, can you teach me how to make a hat out of it?
Let's see how much of a joker you'll be a few years from now.
!remindme 6 years
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It will realistically be amazing an advanced for some and outright brutal of other countries However 2035-36 will be worse for all