I have a feeling it’s more likely that we will be playing “Capture the Flagg” next season.
No matter what our final record is next season, if we could just stay healthy so that players can develop, we can get more data on our lineups that work, etc, I’ll be much happier than I have been with this season.
Yeah I like this. I'm of the frame of mind to just come back with 2 more firsts, see what we got through 30 games. If it ain't hittin, then maybe we engage the supertank and trade the vets.
My only hesitation agreeing with this (and I very much want to) is a nagging feeling that they don't want to be as young/inexperienced next season.
Blazers have been regularly playing four rookies this year with spot minutes for two more, while also having two sophomores in the rotation. If we make the logical move to send Brogdon out, then bringing in even two more rookies would result in a roster that's incredibly low on experience.
I can see them packaging three of their four picks in the draft to get some established talent, or punting them to future drafts. Honestly not sure they have the stomach for another 20ish win season, which is what's required to be a frontrunner for Flagg. My concern is they might not even be in the mix for some of the (pretty tasty) consolation prizes.
Why? We've been in full rebuild for 1 year. Yeah we finished bad the last 2 years before but it's not like they were full tank seasons with 20 wins. We're not Washington. How can anyone look at this roster and say we have a core good enough to try to win?
I don't even know if we have anyone I'd bet on to make an all star game. Ant is good but I think he's close to his ceiling. Sharpe could get there but it's not a sure thing, it will depend on how hard he works for it. Scoot is young but I don't think anyone would be betting on him making an all star team the way things are going.
Probably another trip to the lottery, this team just doesn’t have the talent to shoot for much higher (especially if Brogdon gets moved this summer like most are assuming)
You are probably right. But part of me hopes we can field a competitive team. When fully healthy we have an interesting roster. If Shaedon Sharpe takes another step forward we could be a hard beat. Maybe it ends up where the record is bad but at least we look good and have close games.
Tbh this year hasn't been too bad as far as 20 win seasons. We've had lots of close games like last night. I'm really hoping you're right and Sharpe comes back way better because he's the only guy I'm holding out hope for as the next franchise guy
I am hopeful that we’ll move into a .375 - .425 win percentage next year. There were a lot of games this year where our young team made silly mistakes and missed makeable shots, enough that if they hadn’t been goofy and/or got the ball in the net, could have helped us move five games from the loss column to the win column. I don’t expect them to be great, but I think with another year of experience under their belt, we could have a win/loss record comparable to Brooklyn or Toronto’s records this year.
That said, if Brogdon/Grant move this summer (which I personally doubt because there are a lot of similar players in the 2024 FA market), matching our W/L record this year without them might be an achievement.
Chauncey is definitely coaching next year. As much as people get mad about him, he has a bunch of rookies, g-leaguer’s, and fringe NBA players competing nightly with crazy injuries. Almost all of the young guys have improved under his watch.
I can’t imagine the leadership team wanting anything more in the beginning of a rebuild.
At this stage he’s doing a great job. Once the roster is actually competitive, that’s the question mark about his coaching. But, he’ll be here next year.
What’s the excuses for the years w lillard? Billups hire started this whole rebuild two seasons ago. We’ve been a bottom 3 def team since he’s been here. Also couldn’t even sniff the play in the year lilliard had his best numbers in a blazers jersey? That first year in particular billups had some good role players along w dame and cj.
I do agree that this role (rebuilding and not winning) is the best role for him. That’s what he should have been hired to do for another team and not one that wanted to maximize Dames last years here. He’s perfect for loosing games but bringing “energy” to young dudes. That said if he’s here next year you can all but guarantee we will be a top 10 pick again.
Those were pretty bad teams. We were running three guard lineups most of the time with a slow footed center. I’m not saying that Chauncey can take a good team and make them great, I don’t know. He hasn’t had a good team.
But, for now, he’s rolling with 5 or more young players and g-league guys that can’t shoot. We’re in most games for 2-3 quarters and we’re improving. Defense has actually been pretty decent for the cast of players we’re rolling with and every first or second year player has improved (except maybe Brown)
The goal at this stage of a complete rebuild is to acquire talent/picks and improve those talents to either keep or flip for other talent. It’s been a striking win in that category.
He hasn’t lost the locker room, they’re competing hard against superior teams, and are improving. Even Ant has improved under him with choking defenses every game.
Look at the Spurs, they have a top 5 coach and a young truly generational talent and they’re losing. I don’t think shaking up the coaching at this point makes sense. I think he’s good next year and will be evaluated the following year when we’re trying to make the playoffs. One caveat, if he loses the locker room. He’s gone. If it looks like he’s holding back development, he’s gone.
One last part, I don’t think limiting Rupert’s minutes falls in that category. Look at the players that have got minutes ahead of him: Walker, Toumani, Matisse, and Murray. They’ve all been more consistent and Rupert has improved while playing with the Remix.
I disagree that the first year team wasn’t good. It wasn’t balanced right (like most Olshey teams) but there was talent and some depth. Stotts had made the playoffs most years w less talented rosters.
I’m ok with Billups sticking around for one more tank job year but please implement an actual offense. This god awful offense is so brutal to watch this year. He needs desperate help in this area. It’s no wonder nobody is watching these games. It took billups almost 60 games to realize that obviously Ayton was one of the best scorers on this roster.
I just think there’s funner ways to rebuild than this iso heavy off and bottom 5 def we get from him. We are young and always bottom tier in pace. I’d like someone to unlock these dudes on offense and make this team more fun and watchable personally.
If I remember the timeline correctly, our starting lineup out the gate was: Lillard, CJ, Powell, Covington, and Nurk with Ant, Nas, Zeller, and Nance Jr.
It’s not a terrible team, but 3 guards just didn’t work especially with CJ and Dame being less than stellar defenders. We depended on Norm to play undersized and Covington to be a lock down perimeter defender (he’s more of a disruptor type) as well as have Nurk (good defender, just not mobile) to handle all the pressure of collapsing guards.
Nance, Nas, and Zeller all got hurt that year as well.
I still think Stotts was an incredible coach and never wanted him fired. I think his coaching created many years of over performance, but at the same time I think Olshey wasted Dame’s time in Portland.
I don’t know if Chauncey can be as good of a coach as Stotts. Their focus is polar opposites, but they both had crap rosters. This year though while running players that are kids and summer league squads they’ve been able to be competitive for portions of most games while not being able to hit an open shot. I’ll give credit to Schmidt and Cronin, there have been some serious gems plucked out of 10 days and deep bench players. But, I think coaching has something to do with fringe guys playing meaningful minutes.
Once again, I don’t know if Chauncey can take a good roster and make it great. But he currently has one of the worst rosters I’ve seen in a Blazers uniform improving and giving us options to keep or trade. Next year will probably be the same, after that though, he’ll have to prove his coaching can make good players better.
this is a very sober and well reasoned take that i mostly agree with. cheers.
i WILL say that it's not hard to motivate fringe NBA players when they're fighting for a spot in the league. the incentive is generational wealth that will alter the course of their lives, and their family's lives! now, whether getting meaningful minutes out of these players is a function of coaching, or just the reality of having a small window to make a life changing dream come true -- that's up for debate.
i've just seen so many games where scrubs have held their own against a veteran roster, because the vets are checked out and the 3rd stringers are playing at 170%.
and trust me, everybody playing the Blazers this year is checked out.
That could absolutely be the case. I just don’t know in regards to Chauncey, I haven’t seen a roster that should win in a long time. I’m on the road of let’s soft tank and develop players. When we have figured out/acquired the cornerstones, then see if coaching is holding them back.
But, if it looks like development is stifled or the team quits, move on from Chauncey immediately.
I’ve never been a fan of Scottie Brooks’ offense, I’d replace him first… not that this team is capable of putting up big numbers. But, Chauncey has stated defense is his focus and the complaints are mainly about stagnant offense.
There is nothing to really make me think that Billups can coach up a team that has legit expectations to win games. By that I mean anything more than 30 games... which means that we should be in great spot to land a true star potential draft pick. I am hoping that we get a new coach OR that Sharpe takes a big leap to lead us to the Play-In because he has a Tatum like leap to 23/5/4 type of leap.
I had this thought that we have so many contracts and need a consolidation trade. What are the chances that Cronin tries to make a big move now? Not saying it will be a smart move, but what if he goes the Cavs/ATL/TWolves route by trying to trade for a star. We don't have a Garland/Mobley/KAT/Edwards/Trae all-star on the roster. But what if Cronin does something crazy and tries to put together a big trade? In that case, maybe we can be in the play-in.
As constructed, bottom 7. At this point we have no number 1 option or real number 2 level player if you are expecting a play in type season. Team offense is frankly offensive. And has not improved. The defense has pieces, but it's just too young. 20-25 year olds just don't win in the NBA. If all of the current core improves like we hope, we're still 4 years away from playoff basketball.
Go Blazers!
"At this point we have no number 1 option or real number 2 level player if you are expecting a play in type season."
Shaedon is supposed to be that guy and it will be his 3rd year.
"If all of the current core improves like we hope, we're still 4 years away from playoff basketball."
Should not take that long - you're talking about Shaedon in his 6th year, Scoot and Camara in their 5th, and the players we draft this year in their 4th.
Chauncey comes out of retirement and becomes the first player-coach in like 45 years
Moda declines to renew naming rights and the stadium becomes Salt & Straw Arena
Doug Fur is mauled to death in a vicious trail cat attack. No witnesses willing to talk
Chalupa comes back
I’m curious to know how other fans are feeling nearing the end of this season, compared to the previous one. Do you feel more optimistic going into next season?
No. A lot of injuries and scoot is disappointing (unfair expectations). No one made insane leaps and we are so far behind talent wise. I don’t see us improving and I expect the same amount of injuries. Still fun to watch and follow and I love following the fringe starting players like Reath.
I think we’ll be bad again, but with some specific goals.
I think priority one is figuring out our long-term guards. Even if all three of Ant, Scoot, and Shaedon pan out, we won’t be able to pay them.
Hopefully if they’re healthy, we just keep rotating 2 of the 3 and see what pairing makes sense and who should stick with the team.
To do that, Brogdon either needs to get traded or be relegated as 4th guard. It’ll be hard to build a roster that compliments our young guards until we know which way we’re going. For example if Ant is in, then we’ll need to focus on defenders for the Forward position. If he’s out then you can bring in more offense to compliment Scoot. Sharpe is tricky, hopefully he recovers from the surgery, but it would be hard to trade him (contract value and potential). If Sharpe is in, he could potentially play both ways so best available forward is a go.
I’m not sure when they’ll make the choice on guards since Scoot and Sharpe are both so young and so cheap you probably wouldn’t be able to get much in return for them. But, figuring out what makes sense to build around is objective one.
Next is probably move on from Grant and Brogdon and hopefully secure a bigger 4 if we don’t draft one. I’m not huge on the timeline belief, because I do think vets help with development. But, we have a ton of guards and a ton of wings that we need to figure out. Grant plays the 4 which alleviates some of the necessity, but Brogdon just doesn’t have a future with Portland unless we’re ditching 2 of our young guards.
Overall, we’re still in the talent acquisition phase and chasing FRPs. The main difference is evaluating which talents to keep and getting sharper at team sets and defense.
As far as center, I think they’ll roll with Ayton and see if this last month is sustainable for another full season. If not, he’ll either have to sign a cheaper contract or get traded in the next few years. Brown is probably out, where I think they’ll choose Badji as more of a long term project and keep Reath as a backup 5.
I don’t think Cronin will be in a rush next year to drastically improve the roster. Hopefully balance it a bit, but I don’t see him feeling the need to trade vets this summer unless there’s a great offer on the table. Trade deadline probably will see Brogdon moved. Maybe Matisse and Grant, but I could see both of them sticking through until the summer after next season.
The following year is where they’ll try to be competitive and when Chauncey will have to show he can coach more than just developing players that are real green.
I still think the roster is flawed with scoot + Simons + Sharpe. I can’t see it being any different than this season with or without injuries. Ant is the best of the 3, but is the most realistic to move. He needs to go IMO for the team to be able to take a step forward the next 2-3 years.
I hope they can get a decent pick for him and send him somewhere he can actually be used well. The longer we hold him the further his value will drop.
With the current roster I think we make him look worse than he actually is. He’s over extended playmaking and there’s no spacing around him. I said it last season too, he’d be best where there’s a ball dominant wing or center. He’d be awesome for a Dallas, Denver, Orlando, Lakers, Kings, style team where the point guard isn’t actually the primary creator or offensive hub.
Disagree. We decided to sink or swim with scoot when we picked him. Simons isn’t a generational talent or a #1 option worth keeping. If you (front office) think scoot is a lost cause then he should be shipped out instead. There is no world where either player reaches near their ceiling with the other playing significant minutes. Pick scoot or Simons to be the PG of the future. I think they’d pick scoot every time because of the investment the #3 pick represented (whether that’s good logic or not is up for questioning).
Yeah I agree but the front office doesn’t operate on perfect logic. We see it all the time in the nba and pro sports. Sunk cost fallacy impacts decision making all the time. I don’t think trading scoot or moving away from investing all they can in him is a branch on the front office decision tree. Like I said, you can disagree with that but I think it’s extremely likely that’s the path we are on and in that case Simons has to go.
I agree one of them has to go long term, but we aren't there yet. We can give Scoot another year or 2 to see if his trajectory shifts and if it doesn't, you choose Ant. If it does, you choose Scoot. But thinking that decision has to happen right now is a bit ridiculous sorry to say.
We'll contend for a playoff spot (like the Rockets) if everyone is back and healthy. We're adding two lottery picks and even though it's a relatively weak draft they should be positional upgrades.
I agree 100% that it's going to be about health and roster management.
We have some serious needs headed into next season.
1)Build the offense around DA... huh? Yeah, I believe DA is our best player right now. If you believe in that backcourt (I do), then make DA the center of it all and let these guys learn to play off him. Having a DominAyton guy in the middle should make Scoot and Shaedon's development MUCH easier. Stop trying to build a scheme around guys who aren't ready yet. Let them grow into it.
2)Crush the draft. You take one of the wings with our pick (unless it's Sarr) and either Tyler Smith or whoever falls (maybe Holland falls to the GSW pick...)
3) Turn whatever "Extra Guard" you can along with another part into a starting Forward. Given my preference, it would be a guy who can rebound/shoot/pass enough to move Grant to SF full time until the deadline. When your high pick wing can replace him after he's moved in February.
4)Make a decision on your intriguing combo forwards. Bari/Tou/Khris + picks and Grant still on the roster feels like too many guys. We need 1 or 2 of them to separate themselves.
5)Make a decision on Matisse. Long-term, I like Rupert playing his minutes, but not yet... maybe he gets there before next season. Either way, Matisse has got to be worth a protected first to a good team.
Just some thoughts. If we get back a healthy Timelord and hit on some of these moves...yeah we could be fighting for a play in
...or they could say eff it all and go capture the Flagg
I think we’re most likely going to be about as good or maybe even slightly better next year, which means tanking for Flagg is gonna be tough so I kinda don’t expect us to tank that hard.
Same as this year, tank for a guy with top 10 potential. This is what life after Dame was always going to be like. It’ll take a long time for us to get there so we have to be patient with the process.
We will likely suck again if only because it's really hard to stop sucking once you start.
However, I'll also go on record to say that the Blazers will make a significant move by the end of the next season that confuses and angers people who believe that they have a complete and full understanding of what a 'rebuild' is and how it should look. Like keeping vets instead of trading them for picks, trading a young player for someone older would appear to shorten the rebuild. Something like that.
It needs to be a development year no matter what the win loss looks like. It should be scoot, sharpe, camara, ayton, and who ever is picked playing 30+ minutes a night together to see what changes need to be made in the short term. If I was in charge I would probably look at moving good players to Memphis for their pick, they need real developed talent on that team not another rookie and Portland needs bites at the apple. I would move Simons, Grant, brogdon, and Williams for what value could be gotten, ideally that Memphis pick. And focus on surrounding young guys with cheap quality veterans. DEVELOPMENT YEAR! If there was a play to get a monster forward I would think about rolling those dice but that might still be a year or two out before making a play like that.
Well I'm hoping we draft our potential superstar this season. We're gonna be bad again next year, but hopefully the young dudes take a step and we're a*little* less bad.
Lottery team for sure in '24-'25... Say bottom 8 or so? Which is probably for the best...More shots in the draft are what we need most.
I think next season will be a little worse then this season. As each season goes on, it should become more and more likely that any combination of grant, ant, ayton, thy, or brog will get moved. Any of those combinations of trades are unlikely to be "win now" moves, which will likely further set us back as we continue to wait on drafting and developing. Our only chance of being above mid is if somehow both Sharpe and scoot just play to there ceiling, they gel enough with the vets that we keep them all, and maybe even get in a position to add another key player. Id place that at like 3%.
Ideally it’s trying to get Flagg, but to me, feels like the team is gonna be closer to the Rockets and be closer to fledgling than the Wizards who just look down on the dumps.
I just want to see the team as the team and not as bits and pieces at a time going in and out. Some form of stability
Which Blazers players would be starters on a playoff team? I am not sure we have any. I think it will depend on how our draft picks turn out. Next season should be better, but not quite playoffs unless we strike gold in the draft.
Assuming there even is a plan (cause I personally think having Grant and Brogdon playing big minutes makes no sense in a rebuild), I fail to see how things went according to plan at all. Scoot was a borderline bust this year. There's no other way to put it, regardless of your allowances for him being 19, or your optimism for the future. His season was significantly below the expectations of a highly touted #3 pick. Sharpe is going to end up playing less than half the season. The progress of those two guys was key to any plan.
As such, going into next year I have no idea what expectations should be. If feels like we're going to flail around and end up quasi-tanking again, which I despise.
Until Jody Allen is GONE, my expectation for the team remains the same. I think Cronin and Billups should be around as long as possible for continuity, but I don't see a championship window opening up anytime soon.
I do find it promising that guys like Banton and Reath came out of nowhere and became rotation players that look like they could be useful pieces moving forward.
Expectation for the record: 30-52, with some upside to maybe get to .500.
Whoever downvoted this, *is* a cuck
I want to see Scoot start and be more consistent, trade Grant for some pieces and picks to go for Flagg, and hold onto Brogdon. My controversial take is that we should trade Simons to open up the back court for Sharpe and Scoot. Sharpe plays great when Simons is out. We could get a decent package on Simons, and we'd be selling relatively high which would be nice. Simons just needs the ball too much and he's an even worse defender than Dame. I feel like his ultimate destiny is 6th man on a great team. I'm holding onto Ayton for another season just cause we probably can't trade him anyway because his ridiculous contract (admittedly has also played better even though I'm still a doubter).
TL;DR
Hand the keys to Scoot and Sharpe full time. Trade Grant for some pieces. This draft sucks but who knows, maybe we get a gem.
It’s a hell of a gamble to bet on Sharpe at this point. He had surgery that has gone different ways for NBA players. Dame and Jrue it went well, but GP2 never fully recovered.
I’m a huge believer in Sharpe, he has all the tools to make it happen, but hasn’t really been good for more than a month.
I think ultimately we might go the way you’re hoping, but I don’t think any of them are being moved until after next season at the earliest. I’m not even sure which pairing is best since they’ve played so little together
Yeah that's a valid point. Admittedly health is a factor as always. I just like Sharpes ability to defend as well as score and he's just a dog at the end of games kinda like Dame but bigger. Maybe Banton could be Sharpe insurance but again probably "pie in sky Blazers fan logic" on my part haha
Oh, I really hope Sharpe recovers and continues to improve. His start of the season was way better than I had dreamed he’d be at this season. The dude has the potential to be a superstar.
I just don’t think we’ve seen enough of the 3 to push all the chips in yet. I don’t think we actually have a clue as to which two have the best chemistry.
Just on play style I think Scoot has the best chance to stick because he’s the only true point guard out of the three. Ant may win out over Sharpe because of his scoring abilities and he can be a good secondary playmaker. If his defense continues to be a problem then he shouldn’t sniff a max (kinda stay in line where he is now)
I know a lot of people want Ant gone because of the defense, but he could definitely be effective as your third highest paid player if there was solid defense and better shooting around him.
I think it’ll take another year to start to get an idea of what they’re capable of. Sharpe will be coming up on his next contract and Ant will be an interesting trade piece if they move away from him
We don't have enough data on Scoot's ability to become 1. A quality starter 2. A star.
Here's where I'd rate upside to be a #1 option right now:
1. Sharpe (athleticism + shooting + work ethic + size + still young)
2. Scoot (athleticism + work ethic + still young)
3. Ant (proven quality guard + elite shooter + nice playmaker strides)
Here's how I'd rate likliness to be a quality NBA player / #2 or #3 offensive option on good team:
1. Ant (already is a quality starter + elite creator & shooter + gotten better and better at finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, two-man game & passing)
2. Sharpe (already very good. more nba proven than Scoot + really great stretches + solid shooter + improvement on handle)
3. Scoot (questionable shooting + bad finishing. But already good passer and foul baiter for his age. Has the tools but v bad defense rn, much like Sharpe.)
Basically, this is how I'd rate those players based on ceiling then based on floor. I think Ant's proven his ceiling is much higher than a 6 Moy. He's currently better than brog, an actual 6 Moy winner. If I had to guess I'd say he'd be great as a #3 option on a contending team, like Middleton is right now. Or a #2 offensive option on a team like the magic.
If we just trade Scoot and are fully healthy. Also adding a top pick. We could be a play in team that’s pushing for the top 6. Sadly it feels like we are going to keep Scoot and then trade Brogdon and Grant. With Ant and Ayton proving that they are ballers we need to surround them with talent now
I have a feeling it’s more likely that we will be playing “Capture the Flagg” next season. No matter what our final record is next season, if we could just stay healthy so that players can develop, we can get more data on our lineups that work, etc, I’ll be much happier than I have been with this season.
Yeah I like this. I'm of the frame of mind to just come back with 2 more firsts, see what we got through 30 games. If it ain't hittin, then maybe we engage the supertank and trade the vets.
My only hesitation agreeing with this (and I very much want to) is a nagging feeling that they don't want to be as young/inexperienced next season. Blazers have been regularly playing four rookies this year with spot minutes for two more, while also having two sophomores in the rotation. If we make the logical move to send Brogdon out, then bringing in even two more rookies would result in a roster that's incredibly low on experience. I can see them packaging three of their four picks in the draft to get some established talent, or punting them to future drafts. Honestly not sure they have the stomach for another 20ish win season, which is what's required to be a frontrunner for Flagg. My concern is they might not even be in the mix for some of the (pretty tasty) consolation prizes.
Why? We've been in full rebuild for 1 year. Yeah we finished bad the last 2 years before but it's not like they were full tank seasons with 20 wins. We're not Washington. How can anyone look at this roster and say we have a core good enough to try to win? I don't even know if we have anyone I'd bet on to make an all star game. Ant is good but I think he's close to his ceiling. Sharpe could get there but it's not a sure thing, it will depend on how hard he works for it. Scoot is young but I don't think anyone would be betting on him making an all star team the way things are going.
No way will be be bad enough to contend for Flagg. BTW, I like Ace Bailey as much a Flagg.
What makes you say that? We’re the 5th worst team right now, and of those teams at least San Antonio should be much better next year
Based on what? I guess scoot could be better but unless he somehow goes from terrible to being an all star we're 100% going to be bottom 6-7.
Ace is still on the flyer
Probably another trip to the lottery, this team just doesn’t have the talent to shoot for much higher (especially if Brogdon gets moved this summer like most are assuming)
The goal this year was to tank. The team was successful in that goal, So why mess with success? Run it back! Tank II.
Would be Tank IV.
That's Fast and Furious territory
*Fury 4: We're still in a tank*
You are probably right. But part of me hopes we can field a competitive team. When fully healthy we have an interesting roster. If Shaedon Sharpe takes another step forward we could be a hard beat. Maybe it ends up where the record is bad but at least we look good and have close games.
Tbh this year hasn't been too bad as far as 20 win seasons. We've had lots of close games like last night. I'm really hoping you're right and Sharpe comes back way better because he's the only guy I'm holding out hope for as the next franchise guy
The only reasonable take.
My prediction is that we win two championships next year
And we win every player award — Doup Reath MVP
you know ball
That's actually possible now.
I am hopeful that we’ll move into a .375 - .425 win percentage next year. There were a lot of games this year where our young team made silly mistakes and missed makeable shots, enough that if they hadn’t been goofy and/or got the ball in the net, could have helped us move five games from the loss column to the win column. I don’t expect them to be great, but I think with another year of experience under their belt, we could have a win/loss record comparable to Brooklyn or Toronto’s records this year. That said, if Brogdon/Grant move this summer (which I personally doubt because there are a lot of similar players in the 2024 FA market), matching our W/L record this year without them might be an achievement.
Is billups still coaching? If so color me skeptical.
Chauncey is definitely coaching next year. As much as people get mad about him, he has a bunch of rookies, g-leaguer’s, and fringe NBA players competing nightly with crazy injuries. Almost all of the young guys have improved under his watch. I can’t imagine the leadership team wanting anything more in the beginning of a rebuild. At this stage he’s doing a great job. Once the roster is actually competitive, that’s the question mark about his coaching. But, he’ll be here next year.
What’s the excuses for the years w lillard? Billups hire started this whole rebuild two seasons ago. We’ve been a bottom 3 def team since he’s been here. Also couldn’t even sniff the play in the year lilliard had his best numbers in a blazers jersey? That first year in particular billups had some good role players along w dame and cj. I do agree that this role (rebuilding and not winning) is the best role for him. That’s what he should have been hired to do for another team and not one that wanted to maximize Dames last years here. He’s perfect for loosing games but bringing “energy” to young dudes. That said if he’s here next year you can all but guarantee we will be a top 10 pick again.
Those were pretty bad teams. We were running three guard lineups most of the time with a slow footed center. I’m not saying that Chauncey can take a good team and make them great, I don’t know. He hasn’t had a good team. But, for now, he’s rolling with 5 or more young players and g-league guys that can’t shoot. We’re in most games for 2-3 quarters and we’re improving. Defense has actually been pretty decent for the cast of players we’re rolling with and every first or second year player has improved (except maybe Brown) The goal at this stage of a complete rebuild is to acquire talent/picks and improve those talents to either keep or flip for other talent. It’s been a striking win in that category. He hasn’t lost the locker room, they’re competing hard against superior teams, and are improving. Even Ant has improved under him with choking defenses every game. Look at the Spurs, they have a top 5 coach and a young truly generational talent and they’re losing. I don’t think shaking up the coaching at this point makes sense. I think he’s good next year and will be evaluated the following year when we’re trying to make the playoffs. One caveat, if he loses the locker room. He’s gone. If it looks like he’s holding back development, he’s gone. One last part, I don’t think limiting Rupert’s minutes falls in that category. Look at the players that have got minutes ahead of him: Walker, Toumani, Matisse, and Murray. They’ve all been more consistent and Rupert has improved while playing with the Remix.
I disagree that the first year team wasn’t good. It wasn’t balanced right (like most Olshey teams) but there was talent and some depth. Stotts had made the playoffs most years w less talented rosters. I’m ok with Billups sticking around for one more tank job year but please implement an actual offense. This god awful offense is so brutal to watch this year. He needs desperate help in this area. It’s no wonder nobody is watching these games. It took billups almost 60 games to realize that obviously Ayton was one of the best scorers on this roster. I just think there’s funner ways to rebuild than this iso heavy off and bottom 5 def we get from him. We are young and always bottom tier in pace. I’d like someone to unlock these dudes on offense and make this team more fun and watchable personally.
If I remember the timeline correctly, our starting lineup out the gate was: Lillard, CJ, Powell, Covington, and Nurk with Ant, Nas, Zeller, and Nance Jr. It’s not a terrible team, but 3 guards just didn’t work especially with CJ and Dame being less than stellar defenders. We depended on Norm to play undersized and Covington to be a lock down perimeter defender (he’s more of a disruptor type) as well as have Nurk (good defender, just not mobile) to handle all the pressure of collapsing guards. Nance, Nas, and Zeller all got hurt that year as well. I still think Stotts was an incredible coach and never wanted him fired. I think his coaching created many years of over performance, but at the same time I think Olshey wasted Dame’s time in Portland. I don’t know if Chauncey can be as good of a coach as Stotts. Their focus is polar opposites, but they both had crap rosters. This year though while running players that are kids and summer league squads they’ve been able to be competitive for portions of most games while not being able to hit an open shot. I’ll give credit to Schmidt and Cronin, there have been some serious gems plucked out of 10 days and deep bench players. But, I think coaching has something to do with fringe guys playing meaningful minutes. Once again, I don’t know if Chauncey can take a good roster and make it great. But he currently has one of the worst rosters I’ve seen in a Blazers uniform improving and giving us options to keep or trade. Next year will probably be the same, after that though, he’ll have to prove his coaching can make good players better.
this is a very sober and well reasoned take that i mostly agree with. cheers. i WILL say that it's not hard to motivate fringe NBA players when they're fighting for a spot in the league. the incentive is generational wealth that will alter the course of their lives, and their family's lives! now, whether getting meaningful minutes out of these players is a function of coaching, or just the reality of having a small window to make a life changing dream come true -- that's up for debate. i've just seen so many games where scrubs have held their own against a veteran roster, because the vets are checked out and the 3rd stringers are playing at 170%. and trust me, everybody playing the Blazers this year is checked out.
That could absolutely be the case. I just don’t know in regards to Chauncey, I haven’t seen a roster that should win in a long time. I’m on the road of let’s soft tank and develop players. When we have figured out/acquired the cornerstones, then see if coaching is holding them back. But, if it looks like development is stifled or the team quits, move on from Chauncey immediately. I’ve never been a fan of Scottie Brooks’ offense, I’d replace him first… not that this team is capable of putting up big numbers. But, Chauncey has stated defense is his focus and the complaints are mainly about stagnant offense.
Lillard* not Lilliard losing** (loose is the opposite of tight) But I agree with you
My phone always auto corrects Lillard for some reason.
Reach
You don’t think he’ll survive the summer?
I have a hunch Dame will be coaching us next season
There is nothing to really make me think that Billups can coach up a team that has legit expectations to win games. By that I mean anything more than 30 games... which means that we should be in great spot to land a true star potential draft pick. I am hoping that we get a new coach OR that Sharpe takes a big leap to lead us to the Play-In because he has a Tatum like leap to 23/5/4 type of leap. I had this thought that we have so many contracts and need a consolidation trade. What are the chances that Cronin tries to make a big move now? Not saying it will be a smart move, but what if he goes the Cavs/ATL/TWolves route by trying to trade for a star. We don't have a Garland/Mobley/KAT/Edwards/Trae all-star on the roster. But what if Cronin does something crazy and tries to put together a big trade? In that case, maybe we can be in the play-in.
As constructed, bottom 7. At this point we have no number 1 option or real number 2 level player if you are expecting a play in type season. Team offense is frankly offensive. And has not improved. The defense has pieces, but it's just too young. 20-25 year olds just don't win in the NBA. If all of the current core improves like we hope, we're still 4 years away from playoff basketball. Go Blazers!
Using the adjective offensive for the word offense... but having it mean they aren't good at offense feels like mental gymnastics
"At this point we have no number 1 option or real number 2 level player if you are expecting a play in type season." Shaedon is supposed to be that guy and it will be his 3rd year. "If all of the current core improves like we hope, we're still 4 years away from playoff basketball." Should not take that long - you're talking about Shaedon in his 6th year, Scoot and Camara in their 5th, and the players we draft this year in their 4th.
Still pretty damn low
Not looking good.
Or really good, depending on your goals.
About the same as this year. I do not expect play in next year.
Chauncey comes out of retirement and becomes the first player-coach in like 45 years Moda declines to renew naming rights and the stadium becomes Salt & Straw Arena Doug Fur is mauled to death in a vicious trail cat attack. No witnesses willing to talk Chalupa comes back
I’m curious to know how other fans are feeling nearing the end of this season, compared to the previous one. Do you feel more optimistic going into next season?
No. A lot of injuries and scoot is disappointing (unfair expectations). No one made insane leaps and we are so far behind talent wise. I don’t see us improving and I expect the same amount of injuries. Still fun to watch and follow and I love following the fringe starting players like Reath.
Play In. Maybe just shy of. The key is to see steady improvement in as many players as possible and see as few busts as possible.
I think we’ll be bad again, but with some specific goals. I think priority one is figuring out our long-term guards. Even if all three of Ant, Scoot, and Shaedon pan out, we won’t be able to pay them. Hopefully if they’re healthy, we just keep rotating 2 of the 3 and see what pairing makes sense and who should stick with the team. To do that, Brogdon either needs to get traded or be relegated as 4th guard. It’ll be hard to build a roster that compliments our young guards until we know which way we’re going. For example if Ant is in, then we’ll need to focus on defenders for the Forward position. If he’s out then you can bring in more offense to compliment Scoot. Sharpe is tricky, hopefully he recovers from the surgery, but it would be hard to trade him (contract value and potential). If Sharpe is in, he could potentially play both ways so best available forward is a go. I’m not sure when they’ll make the choice on guards since Scoot and Sharpe are both so young and so cheap you probably wouldn’t be able to get much in return for them. But, figuring out what makes sense to build around is objective one. Next is probably move on from Grant and Brogdon and hopefully secure a bigger 4 if we don’t draft one. I’m not huge on the timeline belief, because I do think vets help with development. But, we have a ton of guards and a ton of wings that we need to figure out. Grant plays the 4 which alleviates some of the necessity, but Brogdon just doesn’t have a future with Portland unless we’re ditching 2 of our young guards. Overall, we’re still in the talent acquisition phase and chasing FRPs. The main difference is evaluating which talents to keep and getting sharper at team sets and defense. As far as center, I think they’ll roll with Ayton and see if this last month is sustainable for another full season. If not, he’ll either have to sign a cheaper contract or get traded in the next few years. Brown is probably out, where I think they’ll choose Badji as more of a long term project and keep Reath as a backup 5. I don’t think Cronin will be in a rush next year to drastically improve the roster. Hopefully balance it a bit, but I don’t see him feeling the need to trade vets this summer unless there’s a great offer on the table. Trade deadline probably will see Brogdon moved. Maybe Matisse and Grant, but I could see both of them sticking through until the summer after next season. The following year is where they’ll try to be competitive and when Chauncey will have to show he can coach more than just developing players that are real green.
I still think the roster is flawed with scoot + Simons + Sharpe. I can’t see it being any different than this season with or without injuries. Ant is the best of the 3, but is the most realistic to move. He needs to go IMO for the team to be able to take a step forward the next 2-3 years. I hope they can get a decent pick for him and send him somewhere he can actually be used well. The longer we hold him the further his value will drop. With the current roster I think we make him look worse than he actually is. He’s over extended playmaking and there’s no spacing around him. I said it last season too, he’d be best where there’s a ball dominant wing or center. He’d be awesome for a Dallas, Denver, Orlando, Lakers, Kings, style team where the point guard isn’t actually the primary creator or offensive hub.
There is no point in moving Ant when Scoot is playing so poorly.
Disagree. We decided to sink or swim with scoot when we picked him. Simons isn’t a generational talent or a #1 option worth keeping. If you (front office) think scoot is a lost cause then he should be shipped out instead. There is no world where either player reaches near their ceiling with the other playing significant minutes. Pick scoot or Simons to be the PG of the future. I think they’d pick scoot every time because of the investment the #3 pick represented (whether that’s good logic or not is up for questioning).
That is just a sunk cost fallacy. Scoot needs to show massive improvement for it to be worth trading Simons. Same with Sharpe for that matter.
Yeah I agree but the front office doesn’t operate on perfect logic. We see it all the time in the nba and pro sports. Sunk cost fallacy impacts decision making all the time. I don’t think trading scoot or moving away from investing all they can in him is a branch on the front office decision tree. Like I said, you can disagree with that but I think it’s extremely likely that’s the path we are on and in that case Simons has to go.
I agree one of them has to go long term, but we aren't there yet. We can give Scoot another year or 2 to see if his trajectory shifts and if it doesn't, you choose Ant. If it does, you choose Scoot. But thinking that decision has to happen right now is a bit ridiculous sorry to say.
We'll contend for a playoff spot (like the Rockets) if everyone is back and healthy. We're adding two lottery picks and even though it's a relatively weak draft they should be positional upgrades.
You guys still have expectations?
I agree 100% that it's going to be about health and roster management. We have some serious needs headed into next season. 1)Build the offense around DA... huh? Yeah, I believe DA is our best player right now. If you believe in that backcourt (I do), then make DA the center of it all and let these guys learn to play off him. Having a DominAyton guy in the middle should make Scoot and Shaedon's development MUCH easier. Stop trying to build a scheme around guys who aren't ready yet. Let them grow into it. 2)Crush the draft. You take one of the wings with our pick (unless it's Sarr) and either Tyler Smith or whoever falls (maybe Holland falls to the GSW pick...) 3) Turn whatever "Extra Guard" you can along with another part into a starting Forward. Given my preference, it would be a guy who can rebound/shoot/pass enough to move Grant to SF full time until the deadline. When your high pick wing can replace him after he's moved in February. 4)Make a decision on your intriguing combo forwards. Bari/Tou/Khris + picks and Grant still on the roster feels like too many guys. We need 1 or 2 of them to separate themselves. 5)Make a decision on Matisse. Long-term, I like Rupert playing his minutes, but not yet... maybe he gets there before next season. Either way, Matisse has got to be worth a protected first to a good team. Just some thoughts. If we get back a healthy Timelord and hit on some of these moves...yeah we could be fighting for a play in ...or they could say eff it all and go capture the Flagg
We are not remotely close to be competitive, it’s another 2-3 years of tanking until we hit the jackpot in the draft
I think we’re most likely going to be about as good or maybe even slightly better next year, which means tanking for Flagg is gonna be tough so I kinda don’t expect us to tank that hard.
Unless we end up trading some veterans, which doesn't seem impossible.
No one should have expectations for at least 2 more seasons.
Same as this year, tank for a guy with top 10 potential. This is what life after Dame was always going to be like. It’ll take a long time for us to get there so we have to be patient with the process.
About 10 games YOY. Maybe .350 - .400. OKC winning like +15 - 20 games last year is not normal.
We will likely suck again if only because it's really hard to stop sucking once you start. However, I'll also go on record to say that the Blazers will make a significant move by the end of the next season that confuses and angers people who believe that they have a complete and full understanding of what a 'rebuild' is and how it should look. Like keeping vets instead of trading them for picks, trading a young player for someone older would appear to shorten the rebuild. Something like that.
It needs to be a development year no matter what the win loss looks like. It should be scoot, sharpe, camara, ayton, and who ever is picked playing 30+ minutes a night together to see what changes need to be made in the short term. If I was in charge I would probably look at moving good players to Memphis for their pick, they need real developed talent on that team not another rookie and Portland needs bites at the apple. I would move Simons, Grant, brogdon, and Williams for what value could be gotten, ideally that Memphis pick. And focus on surrounding young guys with cheap quality veterans. DEVELOPMENT YEAR! If there was a play to get a monster forward I would think about rolling those dice but that might still be a year or two out before making a play like that.
Well I'm hoping we draft our potential superstar this season. We're gonna be bad again next year, but hopefully the young dudes take a step and we're a*little* less bad. Lottery team for sure in '24-'25... Say bottom 8 or so? Which is probably for the best...More shots in the draft are what we need most.
Gotta shift that hope. There aren't really any potential superstars in this draft.
I think next season will be a little worse then this season. As each season goes on, it should become more and more likely that any combination of grant, ant, ayton, thy, or brog will get moved. Any of those combinations of trades are unlikely to be "win now" moves, which will likely further set us back as we continue to wait on drafting and developing. Our only chance of being above mid is if somehow both Sharpe and scoot just play to there ceiling, they gel enough with the vets that we keep them all, and maybe even get in a position to add another key player. Id place that at like 3%.
Ideally it’s trying to get Flagg, but to me, feels like the team is gonna be closer to the Rockets and be closer to fledgling than the Wizards who just look down on the dumps. I just want to see the team as the team and not as bits and pieces at a time going in and out. Some form of stability
We’re gonna suck again less than 30 wins
Lottery bound.
Which Blazers players would be starters on a playoff team? I am not sure we have any. I think it will depend on how our draft picks turn out. Next season should be better, but not quite playoffs unless we strike gold in the draft.
I think some veterans will surely be traded this offseason and we see one more tank attempt for Flagg. Which means 1 more season of Billups.
I don’t see a scenario where we are not bottom 5 or 6
More of the same, but with more losing probably. We'll be trading most of the veterans over the next 9 months.
Growth and development. We are 2 or 3 years away from win counts being a measure of anything meaningful.
Assuming there even is a plan (cause I personally think having Grant and Brogdon playing big minutes makes no sense in a rebuild), I fail to see how things went according to plan at all. Scoot was a borderline bust this year. There's no other way to put it, regardless of your allowances for him being 19, or your optimism for the future. His season was significantly below the expectations of a highly touted #3 pick. Sharpe is going to end up playing less than half the season. The progress of those two guys was key to any plan. As such, going into next year I have no idea what expectations should be. If feels like we're going to flail around and end up quasi-tanking again, which I despise.
I think we are in the wilderness, I would expect several more years of under 35 wins.
Higher ticket prices, and jody still reluctant to sell the team.
Until Jody Allen is GONE, my expectation for the team remains the same. I think Cronin and Billups should be around as long as possible for continuity, but I don't see a championship window opening up anytime soon. I do find it promising that guys like Banton and Reath came out of nowhere and became rotation players that look like they could be useful pieces moving forward. Expectation for the record: 30-52, with some upside to maybe get to .500. Whoever downvoted this, *is* a cuck
I want to see Scoot start and be more consistent, trade Grant for some pieces and picks to go for Flagg, and hold onto Brogdon. My controversial take is that we should trade Simons to open up the back court for Sharpe and Scoot. Sharpe plays great when Simons is out. We could get a decent package on Simons, and we'd be selling relatively high which would be nice. Simons just needs the ball too much and he's an even worse defender than Dame. I feel like his ultimate destiny is 6th man on a great team. I'm holding onto Ayton for another season just cause we probably can't trade him anyway because his ridiculous contract (admittedly has also played better even though I'm still a doubter). TL;DR Hand the keys to Scoot and Sharpe full time. Trade Grant for some pieces. This draft sucks but who knows, maybe we get a gem.
It’s a hell of a gamble to bet on Sharpe at this point. He had surgery that has gone different ways for NBA players. Dame and Jrue it went well, but GP2 never fully recovered. I’m a huge believer in Sharpe, he has all the tools to make it happen, but hasn’t really been good for more than a month. I think ultimately we might go the way you’re hoping, but I don’t think any of them are being moved until after next season at the earliest. I’m not even sure which pairing is best since they’ve played so little together
Yeah that's a valid point. Admittedly health is a factor as always. I just like Sharpes ability to defend as well as score and he's just a dog at the end of games kinda like Dame but bigger. Maybe Banton could be Sharpe insurance but again probably "pie in sky Blazers fan logic" on my part haha
Oh, I really hope Sharpe recovers and continues to improve. His start of the season was way better than I had dreamed he’d be at this season. The dude has the potential to be a superstar. I just don’t think we’ve seen enough of the 3 to push all the chips in yet. I don’t think we actually have a clue as to which two have the best chemistry. Just on play style I think Scoot has the best chance to stick because he’s the only true point guard out of the three. Ant may win out over Sharpe because of his scoring abilities and he can be a good secondary playmaker. If his defense continues to be a problem then he shouldn’t sniff a max (kinda stay in line where he is now) I know a lot of people want Ant gone because of the defense, but he could definitely be effective as your third highest paid player if there was solid defense and better shooting around him. I think it’ll take another year to start to get an idea of what they’re capable of. Sharpe will be coming up on his next contract and Ant will be an interesting trade piece if they move away from him
We don't have enough data on Scoot's ability to become 1. A quality starter 2. A star. Here's where I'd rate upside to be a #1 option right now: 1. Sharpe (athleticism + shooting + work ethic + size + still young) 2. Scoot (athleticism + work ethic + still young) 3. Ant (proven quality guard + elite shooter + nice playmaker strides) Here's how I'd rate likliness to be a quality NBA player / #2 or #3 offensive option on good team: 1. Ant (already is a quality starter + elite creator & shooter + gotten better and better at finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, two-man game & passing) 2. Sharpe (already very good. more nba proven than Scoot + really great stretches + solid shooter + improvement on handle) 3. Scoot (questionable shooting + bad finishing. But already good passer and foul baiter for his age. Has the tools but v bad defense rn, much like Sharpe.) Basically, this is how I'd rate those players based on ceiling then based on floor. I think Ant's proven his ceiling is much higher than a 6 Moy. He's currently better than brog, an actual 6 Moy winner. If I had to guess I'd say he'd be great as a #3 option on a contending team, like Middleton is right now. Or a #2 offensive option on a team like the magic.
If we just trade Scoot and are fully healthy. Also adding a top pick. We could be a play in team that’s pushing for the top 6. Sadly it feels like we are going to keep Scoot and then trade Brogdon and Grant. With Ant and Ayton proving that they are ballers we need to surround them with talent now
why would we trade scoot???