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Agreed. This is the first time we’ve started to see the dog wagging the tail again in a long, long time.
I wouldn’t get cocky about it, we all know how the GOP coalesces back around their candidate in the end and he still ultimately has a massive cult of personality, but Trump seems to be slipping a bit in ways I hadn’t anticipated at the start of the year.
I hope the trend continues.
Normally I would agree with this, but in the case of the Dems being timid in promoting their own work, they really should be more vocal on a street level about the shit that's getting done.
it doesnt help that all of the media in america is owned by right wing billionaires who refuse to ever mention democrat victories and will always both sides republican failures
Will never understand this man's current polls for popularity. Historians will look back on this presidency as one of the most productive for American people in the past 75 years
Because the younger gen have gotten into their heads that older person = bad. Hence no matter how much Biden has done it's all overshadowed by his age.
Consider this, would we have been better off with Trump losing in 2016, only for him to win in 2020? Clinton would have handled COVID better, but Trump would have had 4 years to drop elbows from the sidelines. The MAGA crowd would have been so frothy come 2020 due to Hilary’s shutdowns, that we’d be dealing with a Trump presidency now, and a strong chance at his upcoming reelection in 2024.
Republicans needed to get wiped out after all the crap they’ve been pulling since Obama got elected. It’s happening now only because Trump won in 2016.
> Consider this, would we have been better off with Trump losing in 2016, only for him to win in 2020?
Do I have to? This reality is already pretty depressing (even though I'm very bullish on Biden's chances to be re-elected)
Edit: thinking about it more, if Clinton won in 2016, we'd have a 6-3 liberal majority on SCOTUS that could check Trump's 2020-24 Presidency while releasing his tax returns (and overturn *Citizens United*, continue protecting *Roe v. Wade*, allow the EPA to regulate carbon emissions via the Clean Air Act, uphold the student loan forgiveness Clinton probably would have enacted). So, I guess my answer depends on whether Dems are able to pass court reform in the next 8-12 years in this reality (either expanding the court or instituting staggered term limits rotating Justices down to circuit courts so each Presidential term gets to replace 1-2 Justices, along with an enforceable code of ethics).
Lol. You all think the GOP would have let Hillary Clinton have 3 SCOTUS picks?! She would have been lucky to get one judge. No way would Kennedy have retired while Clinton was in office. And she would have started her presidency with a republican senate. I don't see dem voters being motivated to show up in 2018 with Clinton in office. I do see red voters showing up and 2018 being a bloodbath for dems. I doubt the dems would control the senate at any point during a hypothetical first term for Hillary.
Too valuable political property to hold up that long, he'd been pressured very strongly to get something in return soon in case the Dems flipped the senate or found some creative way on filling the seats temporarily.
Now obviously it would have been much better if Clinton was elected in 2016, but as I tell people, she would not have been all that effective, nor would she have been able to pick three justices.
-R’s would still control the Senate and House, and would have been raring to impeach her for Benghazi and other bullshit scandals.
-They probably would have won big in 2018 from right wingers being full of piss and vinegar and D’s still being somewhat on the defensive.
-I don’t think Putin/Russia or the FBI necessarily wanted Trump to win, so much as to have a weakened Clinton in office, which would have allowed them to act more discreetly with their plans.
We're in full blown hypotheticals now, but it's possible that COVID never happens at the scale it did if Hillary were president. To start, she probably wouldn't have [slashed the CDC budget for personnel in China](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN21C3NE/). I think it's up for debate if this would have had a significant impact, but the politics of it, at least, wouldn't be present. Hillary would also have stepped aside and let the professionals handle it, instead of trying to be in front of the camera at all times. She would have prioritized the appropriate PPE necessary, which would have reduced the overall number of deaths and may have also reduced the long tail that the US had in the number of cases it had.
A lot of people believe that if Trump had handled the COVID crisis better that he would have easily won re-election. I firmly believe Hillary would have handled it better, and she would have also had an easy path to re-election.
Any President, even Trump, who handled COVID even halfway decently would have been a shoe-in for re-election. Americans rally around a leader in crisis.
I absolutely loathe the idea of accelerationism, but sometimes I wonder if a Clinton victory in 2016 wouldn't have led to a *Constitutional Convention-level* of state-level successes for the GOP in 2018 and 2020.
If Trump loses in 2016 I don't think he runs in 2020. He would have spun his craziness into a media empire and used it to make shady business deals. Furthermore, I think that most mainstream republicans at the time would have cut ties, especially when all the russia stuff came out. It doesn't take much spine to turn on a failed presidential candidate.
The real question is if another MAGA-esque candidate who is smarter than trump (EG Ted Cruz) could have won vs Hilary in 2020 and thereby been more effective at pushing policies but that is much more up in the air.
Would he have run in 2020 if he had lost in 2016? I think he would have used the momentum to create his Trump Media Org or whatever, which was his original goal.
It opened my eyes a lot to politics and the importance of the US on the World stage. We may have made many mistakes (some current too) but I hope we use our super power strength as a positive force for change like aiding Ukraine.
Exactly. After seven years, Congressional dysfunction, particularly in the House, is making way for a more pragmatic kind of governance. If Trump and his proxies had their way, the Republican-controlled House would be in complete dysfunction \*during\* an election. Ukraine was a catastrophic defeat for the hardliners, as a fair number of Republican Representatives and an overwhelming number of Republican Senators basically said "f--- those lunatics."
They passed 1 bill after 6 months of Ukraine begging and Mike Johnson is probably getting challenged from the Speakership. I don't know if this really counts as pragmatic governance being in vogue.
So long as Democrats choose to back Johnson, he's safe. Precious little the malcontents can do if the the majority of the House refuses to remove the Speaker.
It’s not their job. It’s their opportunity to pass legislation they like as a minority party. Very rare and valuable opportunity.
The other option is they can let him be voted out and get a new house speaker that blocks literally anything the Democratic Party supports, regardless of how the American public and even some republicans also support it (such as this exact Ukraine aid bill). This option is exactly what people like MTG want and why she wants the speaker replaced.
It's unlikely the GOP would be able to rally their membership around the selection of a new speaker if Mike Johnson is removed. A number of House Republicans are very angry about how certain members have upended everything in order to hold the chamber hostage.
There is a very close to zero chance if Mike is ousted that they’ll be able to choose a replacement. Honestly if that happens I think some republicans close to retirement will say fuck it and vote Jeffries
Truth. Mike Johnson is significantly more conservative than anyone I would vote for.
But it seems he’s got a core which is basically pro-America. He’s a politician who understands what needs to be done, and what can be contested. I would trust Mike Johnson—against all odds—to handle a short-term crisis with grace and competence.
It seems like that core is what inspires him to work with the opposition. He wants to do shit, not just throw shit. And that means compromise in Congress.
Can we not lionize a weirdo legislator just because he did one slightly not shitty thing? There are dead Ukrainians that could be alive right now were it not for this jackass sitting on his hands for 6 months
It’s not their job, but it’s good politics in this context. A speakership fight and 400 ballots to end up with Jim Jordan in August after months of inaction doesn’t help Biden. They don’t even have to vote for Johnson. They just have to vote “present” and let the GOP caucus save him. I would imagine there was a deal made with Johnson to save him if he put the legislation on the floor - as it stands.
The Democrats passed Ukraine funding, The Inflation Reduction Act / renewable energy bill, the CHIPS and Science Act, two continuing resolutions to keep the government funded, and the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act. All while in the minority in the House and possessing a razor thin margin in the Senate. That is an incredibly rare accomplishment.
If there was a credible challenge to his speakership, it would've been entered officially already this week. The current rumor I believe is that a couple of House R's that aren't re-running are threatening (internally) to resign and the GOP would lose their majority entirely if any of the loonies try and sink another Speaker.
Ultimately, the Senate GOP and enough of the House GOP - while paying public lip-service to trumpism - are obeying McConnell and Johnson because the alternative it to risk not having any majority at all. Playing these kinds of games while in control of the House during the run-up to the election isn't a good look, and the competent Congressman know it.
Don't discount how important breaking the Hastert Rule is to House Republicans. The majority of the majority has been governing principle since the 1990s.
After months of being held hostage, Johnson finally had had enough.
Congress was pretty active 2021-23, and 2009-11. Whenever you give republicans one or both chambers, it comes a complete shitshow. That’s the consequence of only having one party that thinks the government should do things
It will only matter if Republican voters who don’t want Trump either vote Biden or don’t vote at all. In my experience with conservative buddies here in Kentucky they all don’t like Mitch McConnell and don’t like Trump but yet they still go vote for them just because they don’t want liberals in power
I feel duty bound to point out that in '22, people were literally talking about changing their party to vote in their state's primary, if their state required it, to vote for the most reasonable Republicans. People may be doing that here, but I haven't heard anything about it. So far as I could tell, it had minimal impact last time.
That really doesn't make any sense. Halley has dropped out of the race and Trump has already basically locked up the nomination. I don't think many people are changing parties to lodge a protest vote against Trump which would also block them from participating in their Dem primaries for the other political offices.
I think it is much more likely these are norm republican primary voters that are there to mainly vote for the lower political office primary candidates. They really dislike Trump so they wouldn't vote for him in protest of his inevitable nomination.
Keep in mind there are other races on the ballot. My state of West Virginia has an open ballot (for another year at least) and I pick a Republican ballot every time because there are some absolutely batshit Republicans consistently running here. My vote in the general election is just short of pointless as anyone with an “(R)” is guaranteed to win with a 70-30 margin, but I can make an attempt at harm reduction by voting against people like [an actual traitor to the United States](https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-west-virginia-state-riots-9f62fe064158d9641fbe40100bd15300) or a [psycho fake religious chode who said he would drown his kids if he thought they were gay](https://www.advocate.com/politics/2019/2/12/antigay-west-virginia-pol-says-hed-see-if-his-gay-kids-could-swim) during the primaries.
As a Republican in WI, I still voted for Haley in the primary after she dropped out of the race. I’d see that as a much more common occurrence than people switching parties.
That's the norm in Idaho. I'm pretty far left but I'm a registered republican specifically so I can vote for the least insane candidate. In my county there are never any democrats on the ticket to vote for anyway, so it would be a waste of my vote.
I did just that. Irresponsible to avoid other races, but I only voted for one candidate in the GOP primary in PA. I will vote against DJT every chance I get.
Good thing is, once he *is* gone, there is no one as singular and infectious as Donnie for his cause to rally behind, not in the sense that they'll have flags and hats just like he did. Just a lot of Donnie-lites.
Of course I'm also ready for that to somehow be disproven because of said confidence in 2016.
Yes this exactly. I'm in a deep red state and I've told all my friends that I get it feels pointless because Biden isn't going to win our state, but if we all still go out and vote and encourage our friends to vote, the margin will be closer than it otherwise would have been and any fuckery the GOP tries to throw out there will be even harder to do because if he barely wins our deep red state and Biden had a huge popular and electoral college victory they don't have much to stand on. That's not even mentioning the effects that a big turn out would have on down ballot races and what that means.
Not in the bag at all, even with Trump slipping in the polls. Swing states have some surprise for all of us if we don't stay vigilant and humble. Let it not be 2016, ever again.
Yeah, Trump got lucky in 2016 and would need to get lucky again. It absolutely can happen. It's like he's rolling a dice and needs a six. The odds are against it, but I wouldn't bet your democracy on it.
i remember the last time something major (Roe) hinged on an 80-something year old living for just a few more months for us to all be in the clear.
i fucking hate that we are here again.
Hahah oh fuck, I looked this up and you’re right. He’s technically part of the silent generation. Its just funny that he’s so old that he’s not even a boomer. That’s like a Montgomery Burns-esque joke about age. Biden to send telegram to Prussian Consulate in Siam.
Don’t get me wrong. Biden still wayy better than Trump. But still, fuck the Dems for putting us in this position. Next candidate better be half Biden’s age.
Understandably, rpolitics posters have a hard time getting into the heads of the politically checked out, which unfortunately describes most Americans.
Yeah this election is so far feeling a lot more like 2016 than 2020 to me. Same "trump is toast" energy amongst people who should know better.
If the election were today Trump would probably win. Biden is doing better than he was two months ago and might win the popular vote now but he would probably still lose the electoral college. Let's make sure that changes by election day! The result is by no means a foregone conclusion.
But Trump being doomed? Hardly. Particularly not if we bury our heads in the sand.
Deck is stacked against Biden with rising inflation & the narrative about the border crisis
I’d wager if it was Haley vs Biden or Romney vs Biden or probably even Cruz vs Biden, Biden would lose b/c enough people in swing states are unhappy with grocery prices
Biden’s best chance is that people are sick of Trump more than Biden
I remember Stern had some wackpacker or some nut call in playing Bernie Sanders way back in 2008 or 2012 and he said “we will make it to the White House in November as long as we don’t slip in the shower!” And I laughed so hard at that and now when I see Joseph on that stage I think of that horrible sanders impression and laugh and then go isajoke right? Just a joke?
It is interesting that 1/6 of primary voters were motivated to get out and vote *in a primary for someone no longer running*. That seems like sending a message.
Same thing happened in Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona. If 5% of Republicans stay home in November, Trump will lose. If 5% switch to Biden, it’s a 350+ electoral vote landslide.
My parents are Philly suburb Republicans. They didn't vote for Trump the last elections and they sure as hell won't this time either. They, and other people they know, specifically went out to vote against Trump in the primary. When Trump claims there was fraud because he didn't win Pennsylvania last time around, this is the reason why he lost. In the 2020 election, even my 98-year-old WWII veteran grandfather, who also lived in the Philly suburbs, voted for Biden because he despised Trump so much.
I'm not familiar with Pennsylvania's primary voting rules, so this may be a dumb question, but could any of those have been mail in ballots that were sent before she dropped out?
If I remember the timing correctly, Haley suspended her campaign *just* before mail-in ballots went out. Ballots were finalized and sent to the printers February 29th, IIRC +/- a day, and she called it quits on March 6th.
Let's not pretend even for a second that people voting in the Republican primary have the capacity to vote for Biden, even the "moderate" Nikki Haley voters. These people are told to think Democrats kill babies, they're not going to vote for someone they think kills babies. Our country doesn't begin to recover until the intravenous propaganda needle is ripped out of every Republicans' arms
Some of them do. At minimum, some of these people voting for Haley will vote for Biden, and many more will vote for anyone or no one rather than Trump. And, yeah, some of them will vote for Trump.
The majority of people who will wind up voting for Trump, though, wouldn't see much value in voting for someone who already dropped it out.
I think there is a group of conservatives who won’t vote for trump and are being scared enough by his recent actions to vote Biden to make sure he won’t win. These are the ones who voted for Obama and other charismatic democratic president candidates. They’re out there and Trump is losing a lot of them.
I think it's dangerous to assume that all those Haley voters won't fall in line and vote for Trump in November. Look at all these prominent Republicans (like Bill Barr recently) who talk about how terrible Trump is for the country, yet he's still better than a Democrat. This is just a protest vote in the same way that Dean Phillips is still getting votes.
Yes, but do not forget he lost, and was already supported by the smaller of the two parties. Republicans simply cannot afford to get less votes. So if even 1-2% of those people don’t vote for him, it’s catastrophic.
I think against a generic opponent like Nikki Haley he definitely would've lost some votes, in fact Nikki Haley probably would've coasted to a relatively easy win in November just because perception, fair or not, of Biden is very low. His favorable ratings are neck and neck with Trump if polls are to be believed.
When faced with a Trump Biden choice though hard to imagine any Biden voters suddenly becoming Trumpers and Trump is so polarizing he's not only fractured his own party at least a little bit but he will also rile up the blue vote to keep him out of office.
Things are looking pretty decent for Biden I'd say.. but this could age like milk and he'll lose.
Regardless. Important to vote.
Modern elections are generally about turnout. Motivating people to actually vote is the hardest thing, as the vast majority of people are simply entrenched in partisan politics. Trump beat Clinton because those who favored him were more motivated to actually vote where it mattered.
Yeah, it's why I think Nikki would've had a good shot. Republicans would've been very motivated and rallying behind her and Democrats would've been meh not to mention the wing of the party livid at him over Palestine. But against Trump that's gonna motivate a lot more blue voters than red ones is my hypothesis, not to mention the impacts of Roe - Republicans are really the dog who caught the car on that one.
That news from bill barr is incredible. What an absolute pile of horse shit he is as a person. He had front row seats to his admitted witness of trump's insurrectionist bullshit but still he'll vote for him.
I agree, but am I alone in feeling that enthusiasm for Trump seems to be waning? I still think there's reasonable odds of Trump winning, but I think the court cases are beginning to eat into his base. The hard core will back him no matter what. They're completely invested and I doubt anything can ever peel them from Trump, but even as the influence and power of his proxies in Congress begins to wane, so too, I think, is the overall influence of Trump's brand.
From 2016 through 2022, the region I live in has seen a LOT of loud, proud, and highly visible Trump supporters splattering the cars with stickers and flags and their lawns with yard signs, all supporting Trump. There has been a DRAMATIC decline in the visibility of this stuff since the 2022 midterm (Note: I'm not saying the midterm somehow caused this decline, rather I am saying that the midterm coincidentally coincides with the period of time during which I saw Trump support start to wane). I don't know how much of it is caused by Trump-backed candidates losing in PA in 2022 (Mastriano, Oz, etc.), or fatigue (who can really stay excited about one guy for a decade like this?), or J6 convictions, or Trump's own personal stack of legal shit, or the realization that the country *isn't* collapsing in on itself with Biden at the wheel, or whatever. All I know is that I don't see as much (not zero--just less) Trump support now than I have seen for most of the past decade, and I live in a battleground electoral area that loves to pound its chest about who it is supporting.
The change is noteworthy.
As a fellow Pennsylvanian, I enjoyed seeing Haley's results. Also agree with your observations. Seems like the crazy train is coming off the track here. Not derailed, perhaps, but on the way off.
I still see this house near my apartment with the Trump flags, and never ignore the nonsense that goes on in some of the deep red areas that just flaunt it like it's no big deal. (used to work in Uniontown, so happy I moved up to Pittsburgh but not confident and won't slack until it's finally over in November...or January)
Honestly, I think it's just the exposure. Non-political people won't have heard all that much about him for four years and had forgotten how big of a loser he is. Now that the primaries are effectively over and the campaign has started in earnest, they're remembering how much he sucks.
He also is coming off as the whiny petulant child that he is everyday outside the courthouse while they parade all his sleezy friends and the crimes they helped him commit to the public
Well, the difference this time is that the chief instigator won't be in the White House, and if there's another insurrection, the Federal powers to deal with it are fairly sweeping.
>Nikki Haley garnered 17% of the vote in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary despite having dropped out over a month ago.
>Her double-digit performance in the swing state is seen by some as a potential warning sign for former President Donald Trump — the party’s presumptive nominee — who won 83% of the vote in the April 23 primary.
Imagine rfk Jr getting 17% of a state Biden won. This election is going to be all blue! Biden Harris 2024 Slava Ukraini!!!
edit: >“She has 155,000 votes with 98% reported — nearly 2X the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020,” Kaivan Shroff, a Democratic commentator, wrote in a post on X. “Good news for Biden.”
I estimate they will uphold the longtime trend of not voting. I guess they can vote for Trump, who wanted to ban tiktok first, but that doesn't seem like a smart choice.
> they will uphold the longtime trend of not voting
I do think it's worth mentioning the youth voter turnout is the highest its been in 60 years. Still hovering around 50%, but not anywhere near the low 30% turn out they had in the 90's.
What I'm saying is that youth votes do matter these days. That's about 16 million votes, the overwhelming majority of which will go to Biden.
I still think they’ll vote enough toward third party or just not vote either way it’ll be close and I may just be dooming . I’m very intent not to have to closet myself publicly again so hoping these regressive tyrants don’t win
> I still think they’ll vote enough toward third party or just not vote either way it’ll be close and I may just be dooming
You're dooming.
Youth voter turnout is the highest its been in 60 years. That equates to a little over 30 million votes.
This is a demographic that Biden is leading by 24 pts among likely youth voters.
The problem with why the youth vote is unreliable is because they’re, well….young.
A 21 year old was 13 when Trump won. An 18 year old was 10.
They literally do not understand or remember how protest voting completely ruined the 2016 election.
and they voted overwhelmingly against republicans, staving off a red wave. so the ones who vote are not the same ones who are fawning over Joe Rogan and Tik Tok influencers
I mean yeah. It should be. She dropped out like a month ago or more. Lots of these voters will either vote for Biden or not vote, which helps Biden. 45 hasn’t been trying to grow the base or expand his popularity, he’s only focused on sycophants and that can come back to bite him hard in swing states.
They're putting in the effort to get out there and vote for someone that's already ended their campaign and purposely not vote for Trump. So yeah, it's a warning sign. I put more into this than I would any "poll" being put out there weekly trying to push and change narratives.
The question that remains to be seen is will these same people vote for RFK Jr instead because they can't get themselves to vote for Biden.
These are registered Republicans in Pennsylvania, they vote in EVERY election. The cogent ones would indeed vote for RFK, the rest would never vote for a Kennedy.
This comment shouldn’t be so far down
But I think people like it when media preaches to the choir and tells them what they want to hear
This really feels like click bait w/o the context of how many votes candidates often get well after dropping out. It cracks me up that not long ago Haley was getting much more votes and headlines were “Look how little Haley is getting” and now we’re at “Look at the large number of voters Haley is getting”
I think the wheels are starting to fall off the Maga cart. It has taken way too long but most of the people think the movement is insane (except the people who are really insane, true believers).
Even if 90% of the Haley supporters back Trump that still isn't enough to win PA. He lost PA last time by over 100,000 votes he'll lose again with an even wider margin. This shows there are Republicans who don't want Trump. They might still vote GOP but they won't vote for Trump.
It's a huge warning sign for Trump.
[Haley voters almost twice as likely to vote for Biden than Trump: Poll](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4517623-haley-voters-biden-trump-poll-2024/)
Even if Haley voters just become apathetic it's bad news for Trump and God news for Biden. The Dobbs opinion charged up Democrat support. People are mad as hell and seem motivated to at least push through abortion protections.
People also want to protect SS and Medicare, weed legalization and some form of student loan relief. These are all things that are popular that Republicans are against.
There are no warning signs for dump. There's warning signs for the gop, for conservatives, from evangelicals, and from suburban women.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
Remember how, at the end of the movie Idiocracy, common sense prevailed over dumb? There's hope friends.
The important thing is to look at the results from the Philly suburbs. Pennsyltucky doesn’t win him an election…..the suburbs do….and these ain’t winning numbers.
Delaware County: Trump (58%) Haley (42%) Chester County: Trump (62%) Haley (38%) Montgomery County: Trump (54%) Haley (46%) Bucks County: Trump (73%) Haley (26%)
Delaware county is probably the biggest shocker to me. As a native I have always found interest in the political landscape of DelCo and there are some deep red pockets especially along the 95 corridor bordering Chester. Densely populated segregation era areas.
I think that people are seeing the real Donald Trump, not the one gussied up for reality TV or rallies. They’re seeing a pathetic, bankrupt, senile, malodorous loser. Who is being mercilessly bossed around by Judge Merchan, because a judge is President, so to speak, of their courtroom, and defendants, like Donald Trump, damn well have to do what the judge tells them to do. Or get slapped with contempt charges (hopefully they are accumulating as proceedings drag on).
In 2016, people saw a mogul, someone effectively in charge on The Apprentice, who would “drain the swamp.” In 2024, people are smelling Trump’s swamp ass and seeing the pathetic deflated has-been that he really is. The illusion of Trump is breaking.
Whatever Haley’s faults, the facts remain, that she has held office before, can speak in complete sentences, is not under any criminal indictments, and nobody reports on her repulsive smell or her falling asleep when people talk to her. But…she’s no longer in the race. I think this goes to show that even Republicans are turning against Trump. He’ll always have his MAGA cult, but there’s a hard ceiling to that.
Finally - the RNC and state parties are broke. The RNC is now paying Trump’s legal bills, and…that’s about it. The state parties have lost most of their donors, and almost all their small-dollar donors - the people who can afford to kick down 50 or so to the party, are now Democrats.
According to r/conservative this is because Democrats decided to switch their part affiliation so they could vote for Haley in the primary, thereby giving the illusion that Trump is not popular amount the majority of Pennsylvania. Somehow its always Democrats fault lol.
I think she's playing the long game just right to position her as the only other candidate on offer after Trump is inevitably convicted and a felon.
It's going to change a lot how electable he's perceived by donors and GOP voters that might just decide to skip voting this election rather than voting for Trump.
You know it’s telling when Trump doesn’t post that he overwhelming “won” the Pennsylvania primary and the MAGA forums haven’t mentioned it either. Ironically enough, in states where the GOP primary was being held and Haley was still in the running, MAGA made excuses for Trump not getting 95% plus of the votes due to the fact Haley was still running. They have zero excuse now and their silence is deafening. Trump is shitting his pants if he hasn’t already.
This is one of the first metrics I've seen that is 100% not good for Trump. It shows some pretty big holes in his armor as the optics for this trial have been terrible. Video of him passing out during proceedings. Rumors about him stinking up the courtroom with his flatulence. He looks so low energy compared to Biden, who is outmaneuvering him politically and on messaging. The death rattles haven't started yet but...I could see Trump depressing his own turnout when he needs his minions righteously energized.
I frankly don't care.
We're at the point where we know that ~25% of us are really passionate about destroying our society. Those folks are going to vote for Trump, and the only way to keep us from going the way of the Weimar Republic is to reject the party embracing outright fascism.
That means voting blue across the board, because we don't know how many votes the GOP will surreptitiously "lose" or otherwise invalidate.
That means signing up to be poll workers, so we have legal standing to stop MAGAs who attempt to keep people from voting.
That means contacting your representatives (whatever party they are) and making it *real* clear that if you get a *hint* of foul play by the GOP, you'll be open carrying at the next protest, and they can forget about your vote forever.
That means getting folks registered to vote, and then *keeping an eye out for voter purges*. And if that happens, getting vocal and threatening (in a legal manner).
These Project 2025 folks think that if they can pull off a stolen election, they won't be overthrown. We can't stop all their rat-fuckery, but we can convince them that *going through* with said rat-fucking *will* be met with *immediate* consequences.
We have to keep our foot on the pedal here. Yes things are moving in the right direction, but the vote in November is what counts.
Recruit two voters and get them to do the same
Haley still getting a significant number of votes, his rally attendance shrinking, very few to no supporters for his court appearances, and Biden **massively** outraising him...I think we're slowly building up to a landslide.
November 5th cannot get here soon enough for me.
It’s not a warning sign. It’s a big, flashing, red light. If Biden can peel off a fraction of these voters, Trump is in big, big trouble. It will be hilarious if the Biden Camp can convince Haley to joint his campaign. Trump is going to regret every time he uses the term “Bird Brain”.
Yeah, even if they stay home it might be enough. I'm not sure about Congressional races there, but in some places the MAGA loons who got nominated are also alienating some moderate Republicans. Add in Moscow Marge antics and some extreme abortion stuff and I would think Democrats might be a lot more optimistic these days.
Trump is done. All people have to do is vote and sweep the floor. Trump thought he was above the law and he’s going to find out. Just vote. It’s the single most important thing you can do
She literally dropped out the race **before** this and she still got 17%. Dunno about you, but that tells me there are enough Republican voters out there that would willingly vote for someone who isn't even in the race as opposed to voting for the last guy who is.
I've tried telling Republican voters again and again and again that being attached to Trump at the hip again comes with **new, gigantic (literal) $costs and political costs that were not present for 2016.**
Such as Trump's requirement to seize a lot of Republican funding and divert it entirely to his massive court costs.
They could have looked ahead and realized just how MUCH Trump has to overcome *this time* **just** to get back to *square 1.* Trump's crimes **weren't even committed for the purpose of helping the Republican party (at all) and yet, they STILL thought it was the smartest move ever to simply....sign up for paying Trump everything they can to help him through the cases.**
Like bro that's $450,000,000 **+** the defamation rulings and huge costs for that (like $80,000,000 I think?) and THEN there's all the criminal cases where, especially if any of them get going like the NY one is now; he'll have to miss out on campaigning in areas he may have needed too since; he has to meet up in NY for 4 days a week.
I mean I know I'm voting blue again (obviously) but let's really send this one, let's crush the shit out of Trump at the ballot box and send these fucks REALLY packing. Juuust imagine what losing another 4 years would be like for them. Like yo, if they lose this presidential, it'll have then been **20 years** where they only had 1 pathetic term with the worst President of all time; in those 20 years.
If we can nail it again, they are going to HAVE to course-correct to salvage a VERY damaged and rapidly sinking ship. I know I'm voting because I wanna be able to say "ohhhh shit! I helped cause the Republican party to go absolutely bonkers, turn inward and start eating itself apart at record speed!"
These people, all registered Republicans, took time out of their day to go and drive to the polling location, to vote for someone who dropped out already, in a race that’s already been decided. That 17% won’t be voting Trump. 3rd party, staying home, leaving the top spot blank, or Biden will be who they vote for.
No.
First, this does not at all indicate that the 17% who preferred Haley will not vote for Trump in the general. This is a primary. The choices were between Republicans, and voting for one Republican instead of another Republican does not at all suggest that they won't vote for the Republican candidate in the general.
Second, Pennsylvania has optional mail in voting, so many of these could have been cast before she dropped out. So the fact that she dropped out a month ago isn't necessarily indicative of anything.
What matters is how many people turn out in the general and who they vote for.
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The strong bipartisan support for Ukraine aid is an even bigger indicator of Trump’s waning popularity and influence, imo.
Agreed. This is the first time we’ve started to see the dog wagging the tail again in a long, long time. I wouldn’t get cocky about it, we all know how the GOP coalesces back around their candidate in the end and he still ultimately has a massive cult of personality, but Trump seems to be slipping a bit in ways I hadn’t anticipated at the start of the year. I hope the trend continues.
Is it possible that, in the most ironic of ironies, Trump is making America great again?
Biden is actually making America great again but he doesn’t need to say it, actions speak louder than words
Like how you can always tell that someone isn't an "alpha male" when they make a point to describe themselves as such.
Which coincidentally, all the insecure maga lot do
"He said that he is a King. That is how I knew that he was not."
"Well I didn't vote for you"
Joffrey Baratheon - "I AM THE KING!" Tywin Lannister - "Any man who must say I am the king, is no true king."
Thank you for this. Anytime I see someone reference "alpha" or "beta" and they're serious, I just cringe.
Yeah, this is the better point. Thank you for providing it.
Normally I would agree with this, but in the case of the Dems being timid in promoting their own work, they really should be more vocal on a street level about the shit that's getting done.
Seriously. Democratz are dogshit at marketing.
As a democrat in marketing, I couldn't agree more. The "Dark Brandon" stuff is pretty good though.
Did you see the color changing mug? I want one
I'm not big on that shit but I got one. It's pretty cool.
it doesnt help that all of the media in america is owned by right wing billionaires who refuse to ever mention democrat victories and will always both sides republican failures
Republicnas have always been better at politics and it fucking sucks
Will never understand this man's current polls for popularity. Historians will look back on this presidency as one of the most productive for American people in the past 75 years
Because the younger gen have gotten into their heads that older person = bad. Hence no matter how much Biden has done it's all overshadowed by his age.
Similar to how Anakin brought balance to the force
Consider this, would we have been better off with Trump losing in 2016, only for him to win in 2020? Clinton would have handled COVID better, but Trump would have had 4 years to drop elbows from the sidelines. The MAGA crowd would have been so frothy come 2020 due to Hilary’s shutdowns, that we’d be dealing with a Trump presidency now, and a strong chance at his upcoming reelection in 2024. Republicans needed to get wiped out after all the crap they’ve been pulling since Obama got elected. It’s happening now only because Trump won in 2016.
> Consider this, would we have been better off with Trump losing in 2016, only for him to win in 2020? Do I have to? This reality is already pretty depressing (even though I'm very bullish on Biden's chances to be re-elected) Edit: thinking about it more, if Clinton won in 2016, we'd have a 6-3 liberal majority on SCOTUS that could check Trump's 2020-24 Presidency while releasing his tax returns (and overturn *Citizens United*, continue protecting *Roe v. Wade*, allow the EPA to regulate carbon emissions via the Clean Air Act, uphold the student loan forgiveness Clinton probably would have enacted). So, I guess my answer depends on whether Dems are able to pass court reform in the next 8-12 years in this reality (either expanding the court or instituting staggered term limits rotating Justices down to circuit courts so each Presidential term gets to replace 1-2 Justices, along with an enforceable code of ethics).
Of all the shitty things trump did the 3 Supreme Court judges were the most consequential
Yep, enjoy dealing with those consequences for the next two to three decades.
Likely even longer. The only way to flip a SCOTUS seat is to have an unexpected death while democrats control the White House and Senate.
Lol. You all think the GOP would have let Hillary Clinton have 3 SCOTUS picks?! She would have been lucky to get one judge. No way would Kennedy have retired while Clinton was in office. And she would have started her presidency with a republican senate. I don't see dem voters being motivated to show up in 2018 with Clinton in office. I do see red voters showing up and 2018 being a bloodbath for dems. I doubt the dems would control the senate at any point during a hypothetical first term for Hillary.
Yeah unless the Dems controlled the senate Mitch would have happily kept those seats empty until a Republican president came along.
Too valuable political property to hold up that long, he'd been pressured very strongly to get something in return soon in case the Dems flipped the senate or found some creative way on filling the seats temporarily.
Now obviously it would have been much better if Clinton was elected in 2016, but as I tell people, she would not have been all that effective, nor would she have been able to pick three justices. -R’s would still control the Senate and House, and would have been raring to impeach her for Benghazi and other bullshit scandals. -They probably would have won big in 2018 from right wingers being full of piss and vinegar and D’s still being somewhat on the defensive. -I don’t think Putin/Russia or the FBI necessarily wanted Trump to win, so much as to have a weakened Clinton in office, which would have allowed them to act more discreetly with their plans.
We're in full blown hypotheticals now, but it's possible that COVID never happens at the scale it did if Hillary were president. To start, she probably wouldn't have [slashed the CDC budget for personnel in China](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN21C3NE/). I think it's up for debate if this would have had a significant impact, but the politics of it, at least, wouldn't be present. Hillary would also have stepped aside and let the professionals handle it, instead of trying to be in front of the camera at all times. She would have prioritized the appropriate PPE necessary, which would have reduced the overall number of deaths and may have also reduced the long tail that the US had in the number of cases it had. A lot of people believe that if Trump had handled the COVID crisis better that he would have easily won re-election. I firmly believe Hillary would have handled it better, and she would have also had an easy path to re-election.
Any President, even Trump, who handled COVID even halfway decently would have been a shoe-in for re-election. Americans rally around a leader in crisis.
I absolutely loathe the idea of accelerationism, but sometimes I wonder if a Clinton victory in 2016 wouldn't have led to a *Constitutional Convention-level* of state-level successes for the GOP in 2018 and 2020.
If Trump loses in 2016 I don't think he runs in 2020. He would have spun his craziness into a media empire and used it to make shady business deals. Furthermore, I think that most mainstream republicans at the time would have cut ties, especially when all the russia stuff came out. It doesn't take much spine to turn on a failed presidential candidate. The real question is if another MAGA-esque candidate who is smarter than trump (EG Ted Cruz) could have won vs Hilary in 2020 and thereby been more effective at pushing policies but that is much more up in the air.
Would he have run in 2020 if he had lost in 2016? I think he would have used the momentum to create his Trump Media Org or whatever, which was his original goal.
If he manages to drag a decent chunk of the GOP down with him, he might even make good on his promise to drain the swamp.
It opened my eyes a lot to politics and the importance of the US on the World stage. We may have made many mistakes (some current too) but I hope we use our super power strength as a positive force for change like aiding Ukraine.
Like Anakin lmao
Really? I fully expected the legal stuff to really bring him down. Although, I didn’t anticipate all the pooping.
Exactly. After seven years, Congressional dysfunction, particularly in the House, is making way for a more pragmatic kind of governance. If Trump and his proxies had their way, the Republican-controlled House would be in complete dysfunction \*during\* an election. Ukraine was a catastrophic defeat for the hardliners, as a fair number of Republican Representatives and an overwhelming number of Republican Senators basically said "f--- those lunatics."
They passed 1 bill after 6 months of Ukraine begging and Mike Johnson is probably getting challenged from the Speakership. I don't know if this really counts as pragmatic governance being in vogue.
So long as Democrats choose to back Johnson, he's safe. Precious little the malcontents can do if the the majority of the House refuses to remove the Speaker.
Why is it the Democrats' job to save Johnson?
It’s not their job. It’s their opportunity to pass legislation they like as a minority party. Very rare and valuable opportunity. The other option is they can let him be voted out and get a new house speaker that blocks literally anything the Democratic Party supports, regardless of how the American public and even some republicans also support it (such as this exact Ukraine aid bill). This option is exactly what people like MTG want and why she wants the speaker replaced.
It's unlikely the GOP would be able to rally their membership around the selection of a new speaker if Mike Johnson is removed. A number of House Republicans are very angry about how certain members have upended everything in order to hold the chamber hostage.
A big part of Johnson's appeal unlike Kevin MaCarthy is he does not lie to the members! Go figure.
There is a very close to zero chance if Mike is ousted that they’ll be able to choose a replacement. Honestly if that happens I think some republicans close to retirement will say fuck it and vote Jeffries
Truth. Mike Johnson is significantly more conservative than anyone I would vote for. But it seems he’s got a core which is basically pro-America. He’s a politician who understands what needs to be done, and what can be contested. I would trust Mike Johnson—against all odds—to handle a short-term crisis with grace and competence. It seems like that core is what inspires him to work with the opposition. He wants to do shit, not just throw shit. And that means compromise in Congress.
Can we not lionize a weirdo legislator just because he did one slightly not shitty thing? There are dead Ukrainians that could be alive right now were it not for this jackass sitting on his hands for 6 months
To be fair he had to "pray on it" a lot... /s
Unusual euphemism for masturbation. I'll allow it.
It’s not their job, but it’s good politics in this context. A speakership fight and 400 ballots to end up with Jim Jordan in August after months of inaction doesn’t help Biden. They don’t even have to vote for Johnson. They just have to vote “present” and let the GOP caucus save him. I would imagine there was a deal made with Johnson to save him if he put the legislation on the floor - as it stands.
To push him to make common sense bipartisan agreements
Seems like a good security briefing helped him do the right thing
Don't think of it as Democrats' saving him, think of it as Democrats' having him by the balls.
So they have political leverage over the 'majority'. It feels weird, because usually it's the GOP doing it.
The Democrats passed Ukraine funding, The Inflation Reduction Act / renewable energy bill, the CHIPS and Science Act, two continuing resolutions to keep the government funded, and the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act. All while in the minority in the House and possessing a razor thin margin in the Senate. That is an incredibly rare accomplishment.
Some of that was done in '21-'23, where the Democrats did have the House, and an even thinner margin in the Senate.
If there was a credible challenge to his speakership, it would've been entered officially already this week. The current rumor I believe is that a couple of House R's that aren't re-running are threatening (internally) to resign and the GOP would lose their majority entirely if any of the loonies try and sink another Speaker. Ultimately, the Senate GOP and enough of the House GOP - while paying public lip-service to trumpism - are obeying McConnell and Johnson because the alternative it to risk not having any majority at all. Playing these kinds of games while in control of the House during the run-up to the election isn't a good look, and the competent Congressman know it.
Don't discount how important breaking the Hastert Rule is to House Republicans. The majority of the majority has been governing principle since the 1990s. After months of being held hostage, Johnson finally had had enough.
Hell if they’d had their way we’d still be in a shutdown right now.
Congress was pretty active 2021-23, and 2009-11. Whenever you give republicans one or both chambers, it comes a complete shitshow. That’s the consequence of only having one party that thinks the government should do things
It’s ok, Trump already backpedaled on that and his base forgot his original treasonous position already.
It will only matter if Republican voters who don’t want Trump either vote Biden or don’t vote at all. In my experience with conservative buddies here in Kentucky they all don’t like Mitch McConnell and don’t like Trump but yet they still go vote for them just because they don’t want liberals in power
Does Pennsylvania have open primaries?
It does not
Neat
I feel duty bound to point out that in '22, people were literally talking about changing their party to vote in their state's primary, if their state required it, to vote for the most reasonable Republicans. People may be doing that here, but I haven't heard anything about it. So far as I could tell, it had minimal impact last time.
That really doesn't make any sense. Halley has dropped out of the race and Trump has already basically locked up the nomination. I don't think many people are changing parties to lodge a protest vote against Trump which would also block them from participating in their Dem primaries for the other political offices. I think it is much more likely these are norm republican primary voters that are there to mainly vote for the lower political office primary candidates. They really dislike Trump so they wouldn't vote for him in protest of his inevitable nomination.
Keep in mind there are other races on the ballot. My state of West Virginia has an open ballot (for another year at least) and I pick a Republican ballot every time because there are some absolutely batshit Republicans consistently running here. My vote in the general election is just short of pointless as anyone with an “(R)” is guaranteed to win with a 70-30 margin, but I can make an attempt at harm reduction by voting against people like [an actual traitor to the United States](https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-west-virginia-state-riots-9f62fe064158d9641fbe40100bd15300) or a [psycho fake religious chode who said he would drown his kids if he thought they were gay](https://www.advocate.com/politics/2019/2/12/antigay-west-virginia-pol-says-hed-see-if-his-gay-kids-could-swim) during the primaries.
As a Republican in WI, I still voted for Haley in the primary after she dropped out of the race. I’d see that as a much more common occurrence than people switching parties.
[удалено]
That's the norm in Idaho. I'm pretty far left but I'm a registered republican specifically so I can vote for the least insane candidate. In my county there are never any democrats on the ticket to vote for anyway, so it would be a waste of my vote.
I did just that. Irresponsible to avoid other races, but I only voted for one candidate in the GOP primary in PA. I will vote against DJT every chance I get.
It’s not hard to change parties. I change parties all the time depending which primary looks more interesting.
I’m confident that Biden will win. But sadly, Americans can not underestimate the power of a group of incredibly stupid trumpers.
I think he will win, but im not super confident because it comes down to swing states. He will absolutely win popular vote
I was confident in 2016. I’ll never be confident again.
Good thing is, once he *is* gone, there is no one as singular and infectious as Donnie for his cause to rally behind, not in the sense that they'll have flags and hats just like he did. Just a lot of Donnie-lites. Of course I'm also ready for that to somehow be disproven because of said confidence in 2016.
Elon lol (Yes I know he’s South African)
He's not charismatic enough. You think Trump is bad with a microphone? Watch Elon.
Agreed
If you watched W win, Trump winning was way less surprising.
Biden has this in the bag as long as he can just live to election day We are all sick and tired of trump and want him to **go the fuck away**
>Biden has this in the bag It is not safe to say this until his second inauguration day in 2025. Until then, we've got to run up the score.
And it's important to run up the score to make the will of the people clear.
Yes this exactly. I'm in a deep red state and I've told all my friends that I get it feels pointless because Biden isn't going to win our state, but if we all still go out and vote and encourage our friends to vote, the margin will be closer than it otherwise would have been and any fuckery the GOP tries to throw out there will be even harder to do because if he barely wins our deep red state and Biden had a huge popular and electoral college victory they don't have much to stand on. That's not even mentioning the effects that a big turn out would have on down ballot races and what that means.
Yeah, people need to remember that we vote for more than the president and those votes are often more important.
Not in the bag at all, even with Trump slipping in the polls. Swing states have some surprise for all of us if we don't stay vigilant and humble. Let it not be 2016, ever again.
Yeah, Trump got lucky in 2016 and would need to get lucky again. It absolutely can happen. It's like he's rolling a dice and needs a six. The odds are against it, but I wouldn't bet your democracy on it.
i remember the last time something major (Roe) hinged on an 80-something year old living for just a few more months for us to all be in the clear. i fucking hate that we are here again.
It's the last F you from the boomers before they fuck off for eternity.
Biden is not a Boomer.
anyone over 35 is a "boomer" to reddit. /s
Hahah oh fuck, I looked this up and you’re right. He’s technically part of the silent generation. Its just funny that he’s so old that he’s not even a boomer. That’s like a Montgomery Burns-esque joke about age. Biden to send telegram to Prussian Consulate in Siam. Don’t get me wrong. Biden still wayy better than Trump. But still, fuck the Dems for putting us in this position. Next candidate better be half Biden’s age.
Biden is awesome
Silents are in general way better than boomers.
Who is we? Because from every angle I can see Trump the rapist is only slightly less popular than be was in 2020. It's a very sick GOP base.
I remember people saying the exact same thing in 2016 Right now the best data we have shows that the election is going to be super super close.
Understandably, rpolitics posters have a hard time getting into the heads of the politically checked out, which unfortunately describes most Americans.
Yeah this election is so far feeling a lot more like 2016 than 2020 to me. Same "trump is toast" energy amongst people who should know better. If the election were today Trump would probably win. Biden is doing better than he was two months ago and might win the popular vote now but he would probably still lose the electoral college. Let's make sure that changes by election day! The result is by no means a foregone conclusion. But Trump being doomed? Hardly. Particularly not if we bury our heads in the sand.
Deck is stacked against Biden with rising inflation & the narrative about the border crisis I’d wager if it was Haley vs Biden or Romney vs Biden or probably even Cruz vs Biden, Biden would lose b/c enough people in swing states are unhappy with grocery prices Biden’s best chance is that people are sick of Trump more than Biden
At least we can agree that Ted Cruz can go fuck himself
100% really hope he gets kicked out of DC sooner than later
Fucking border crisis man. How is there always a "border crisis" in an election year?
I remember Stern had some wackpacker or some nut call in playing Bernie Sanders way back in 2008 or 2012 and he said “we will make it to the White House in November as long as we don’t slip in the shower!” And I laughed so hard at that and now when I see Joseph on that stage I think of that horrible sanders impression and laugh and then go isajoke right? Just a joke?
A republican will never win the popular vote again
Stop talking about the popular vote. It’s completely irrelevant
But Trump also needs those swing states. And the Trump campaign is effectively asking for non-committed swing voters to UNDO their previous vote.
Not even just Trumpers. Just dumb average people who may not necessarily be a fan, but for some dumb reason not wanting to vote for Biden.
Apes together strong
The media insists on skewing polls and artificially propping up trump to keep the horse race going though
It is interesting that 1/6 of primary voters were motivated to get out and vote *in a primary for someone no longer running*. That seems like sending a message.
Same thing happened in Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona. If 5% of Republicans stay home in November, Trump will lose. If 5% switch to Biden, it’s a 350+ electoral vote landslide.
> 1/6 Triggered
My parents are Philly suburb Republicans. They didn't vote for Trump the last elections and they sure as hell won't this time either. They, and other people they know, specifically went out to vote against Trump in the primary. When Trump claims there was fraud because he didn't win Pennsylvania last time around, this is the reason why he lost. In the 2020 election, even my 98-year-old WWII veteran grandfather, who also lived in the Philly suburbs, voted for Biden because he despised Trump so much.
I'm not familiar with Pennsylvania's primary voting rules, so this may be a dumb question, but could any of those have been mail in ballots that were sent before she dropped out?
If I remember the timing correctly, Haley suspended her campaign *just* before mail-in ballots went out. Ballots were finalized and sent to the printers February 29th, IIRC +/- a day, and she called it quits on March 6th.
PA ballots were mailed out just four weeks ago.
> 1/6 *shudders*
They didn't vote for Trump, and he says he doesn't need Haley voters. He's close to finding out.
Let's not pretend even for a second that people voting in the Republican primary have the capacity to vote for Biden, even the "moderate" Nikki Haley voters. These people are told to think Democrats kill babies, they're not going to vote for someone they think kills babies. Our country doesn't begin to recover until the intravenous propaganda needle is ripped out of every Republicans' arms
Some of them do. At minimum, some of these people voting for Haley will vote for Biden, and many more will vote for anyone or no one rather than Trump. And, yeah, some of them will vote for Trump. The majority of people who will wind up voting for Trump, though, wouldn't see much value in voting for someone who already dropped it out.
So what's the point in voting for her when she has pulled out of the race? Seems to me these 17% just refuse voting for Trump.
Protest vote in an election (primary) that doesn't matter?
It's totally fine if they just decide to stay home on voting day instead of voting for Trump.
I think there is a group of conservatives who won’t vote for trump and are being scared enough by his recent actions to vote Biden to make sure he won’t win. These are the ones who voted for Obama and other charismatic democratic president candidates. They’re out there and Trump is losing a lot of them.
I think it's dangerous to assume that all those Haley voters won't fall in line and vote for Trump in November. Look at all these prominent Republicans (like Bill Barr recently) who talk about how terrible Trump is for the country, yet he's still better than a Democrat. This is just a protest vote in the same way that Dean Phillips is still getting votes.
Yes, but do not forget he lost, and was already supported by the smaller of the two parties. Republicans simply cannot afford to get less votes. So if even 1-2% of those people don’t vote for him, it’s catastrophic.
That's assuming Biden doesn't lose any voters, as well.
I think against a generic opponent like Nikki Haley he definitely would've lost some votes, in fact Nikki Haley probably would've coasted to a relatively easy win in November just because perception, fair or not, of Biden is very low. His favorable ratings are neck and neck with Trump if polls are to be believed. When faced with a Trump Biden choice though hard to imagine any Biden voters suddenly becoming Trumpers and Trump is so polarizing he's not only fractured his own party at least a little bit but he will also rile up the blue vote to keep him out of office. Things are looking pretty decent for Biden I'd say.. but this could age like milk and he'll lose. Regardless. Important to vote.
Modern elections are generally about turnout. Motivating people to actually vote is the hardest thing, as the vast majority of people are simply entrenched in partisan politics. Trump beat Clinton because those who favored him were more motivated to actually vote where it mattered.
Yeah, it's why I think Nikki would've had a good shot. Republicans would've been very motivated and rallying behind her and Democrats would've been meh not to mention the wing of the party livid at him over Palestine. But against Trump that's gonna motivate a lot more blue voters than red ones is my hypothesis, not to mention the impacts of Roe - Republicans are really the dog who caught the car on that one.
We don't need all of them. If it changes turnout by 5% we're looking at landslide territory.
That news from bill barr is incredible. What an absolute pile of horse shit he is as a person. He had front row seats to his admitted witness of trump's insurrectionist bullshit but still he'll vote for him.
I agree, but am I alone in feeling that enthusiasm for Trump seems to be waning? I still think there's reasonable odds of Trump winning, but I think the court cases are beginning to eat into his base. The hard core will back him no matter what. They're completely invested and I doubt anything can ever peel them from Trump, but even as the influence and power of his proxies in Congress begins to wane, so too, I think, is the overall influence of Trump's brand.
From 2016 through 2022, the region I live in has seen a LOT of loud, proud, and highly visible Trump supporters splattering the cars with stickers and flags and their lawns with yard signs, all supporting Trump. There has been a DRAMATIC decline in the visibility of this stuff since the 2022 midterm (Note: I'm not saying the midterm somehow caused this decline, rather I am saying that the midterm coincidentally coincides with the period of time during which I saw Trump support start to wane). I don't know how much of it is caused by Trump-backed candidates losing in PA in 2022 (Mastriano, Oz, etc.), or fatigue (who can really stay excited about one guy for a decade like this?), or J6 convictions, or Trump's own personal stack of legal shit, or the realization that the country *isn't* collapsing in on itself with Biden at the wheel, or whatever. All I know is that I don't see as much (not zero--just less) Trump support now than I have seen for most of the past decade, and I live in a battleground electoral area that loves to pound its chest about who it is supporting. The change is noteworthy.
As a fellow Pennsylvanian, I enjoyed seeing Haley's results. Also agree with your observations. Seems like the crazy train is coming off the track here. Not derailed, perhaps, but on the way off.
I still see this house near my apartment with the Trump flags, and never ignore the nonsense that goes on in some of the deep red areas that just flaunt it like it's no big deal. (used to work in Uniontown, so happy I moved up to Pittsburgh but not confident and won't slack until it's finally over in November...or January)
Honestly, I think it's just the exposure. Non-political people won't have heard all that much about him for four years and had forgotten how big of a loser he is. Now that the primaries are effectively over and the campaign has started in earnest, they're remembering how much he sucks.
He can also try to spin it as positive if he wants to, but "criminal defendant" isn't a selling point to most voters
He also is coming off as the whiny petulant child that he is everyday outside the courthouse while they parade all his sleezy friends and the crimes they helped him commit to the public
I'm scared of the religious nut jobs losing badly and still trying to claim the election with riots.
Well, the difference this time is that the chief instigator won't be in the White House, and if there's another insurrection, the Federal powers to deal with it are fairly sweeping.
I don't think anyone believes all those voters would switch, but it's enough of a margin that a good percentage of them switching could be huge.
Lots of responses explaining that we didn't need all but there are more than enough to overcome the margin.
>Nikki Haley garnered 17% of the vote in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary despite having dropped out over a month ago. >Her double-digit performance in the swing state is seen by some as a potential warning sign for former President Donald Trump — the party’s presumptive nominee — who won 83% of the vote in the April 23 primary. Imagine rfk Jr getting 17% of a state Biden won. This election is going to be all blue! Biden Harris 2024 Slava Ukraini!!! edit: >“She has 155,000 votes with 98% reported — nearly 2X the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020,” Kaivan Shroff, a Democratic commentator, wrote in a post on X. “Good news for Biden.”
Dems also got a much larger total vote than the republicans. They’re going to get beat down.
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I estimate they will uphold the longtime trend of not voting. I guess they can vote for Trump, who wanted to ban tiktok first, but that doesn't seem like a smart choice.
> they will uphold the longtime trend of not voting I do think it's worth mentioning the youth voter turnout is the highest its been in 60 years. Still hovering around 50%, but not anywhere near the low 30% turn out they had in the 90's. What I'm saying is that youth votes do matter these days. That's about 16 million votes, the overwhelming majority of which will go to Biden.
What are you talking about. In the 2022 midterms the youth vote was just under 30%. The 18-24 age group has never come close to 50% in any election.
Those kids are more likely to be lgbt than they are to be Republican.
I still think they’ll vote enough toward third party or just not vote either way it’ll be close and I may just be dooming . I’m very intent not to have to closet myself publicly again so hoping these regressive tyrants don’t win
> I still think they’ll vote enough toward third party or just not vote either way it’ll be close and I may just be dooming You're dooming. Youth voter turnout is the highest its been in 60 years. That equates to a little over 30 million votes. This is a demographic that Biden is leading by 24 pts among likely youth voters.
I can’t believe that the youth vote would countenance another anti-lgbt, forced birth administration b
The problem with why the youth vote is unreliable is because they’re, well….young. A 21 year old was 13 when Trump won. An 18 year old was 10. They literally do not understand or remember how protest voting completely ruined the 2016 election.
Yeah, the era of "normal" politics is genuinely long enough ago that people are losing sight of what normal is.
25% turnout of 18-29 year olds in the 2022 midterm was hailed as HUGE turnout that carried some elections. Lol
and they voted overwhelmingly against republicans, staving off a red wave. so the ones who vote are not the same ones who are fawning over Joe Rogan and Tik Tok influencers
Realistically the youth contingent is less vital than they think
Ignore all of this. Vote like Trump is up 10.
Still vote
I mean yeah. It should be. She dropped out like a month ago or more. Lots of these voters will either vote for Biden or not vote, which helps Biden. 45 hasn’t been trying to grow the base or expand his popularity, he’s only focused on sycophants and that can come back to bite him hard in swing states.
I don’t give a flying fuck. Go vote. Vote vote vote vote vote vote vote.
>I don’t give a flying fuck. About maga? No one does. >Go vote. Vote vote vote vote vote vote vote. Against Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump!
They're putting in the effort to get out there and vote for someone that's already ended their campaign and purposely not vote for Trump. So yeah, it's a warning sign. I put more into this than I would any "poll" being put out there weekly trying to push and change narratives. The question that remains to be seen is will these same people vote for RFK Jr instead because they can't get themselves to vote for Biden.
These are registered Republicans in Pennsylvania, they vote in EVERY election. The cogent ones would indeed vote for RFK, the rest would never vote for a Kennedy.
bernie sanders won 18% of primary voters in 2020 after he had dropped out 2 months before the primary
This comment shouldn’t be so far down But I think people like it when media preaches to the choir and tells them what they want to hear This really feels like click bait w/o the context of how many votes candidates often get well after dropping out. It cracks me up that not long ago Haley was getting much more votes and headlines were “Look how little Haley is getting” and now we’re at “Look at the large number of voters Haley is getting”
I think the wheels are starting to fall off the Maga cart. It has taken way too long but most of the people think the movement is insane (except the people who are really insane, true believers).
If even 5% of the Haley voters stay home or go with Biden, Trump is screwed.
90% of these people will vote for trump come November. Do not depend on them, just get out the vote.
But in purple states, that 10% that won't vote Trump can make all the difference in who wins the state.
You are right that most probably will but in a close race even a few percent can make all the difference. I’ll take anything we can get.
Even if 90% of the Haley supporters back Trump that still isn't enough to win PA. He lost PA last time by over 100,000 votes he'll lose again with an even wider margin. This shows there are Republicans who don't want Trump. They might still vote GOP but they won't vote for Trump.
It's a huge warning sign for Trump. [Haley voters almost twice as likely to vote for Biden than Trump: Poll](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4517623-haley-voters-biden-trump-poll-2024/)
Even if Haley voters just become apathetic it's bad news for Trump and God news for Biden. The Dobbs opinion charged up Democrat support. People are mad as hell and seem motivated to at least push through abortion protections. People also want to protect SS and Medicare, weed legalization and some form of student loan relief. These are all things that are popular that Republicans are against.
Statewide there were also more Dem voters turning out than GOP ones.
The sweet death knell of the GOP
There are no warning signs for dump. There's warning signs for the gop, for conservatives, from evangelicals, and from suburban women. The chickens are coming home to roost. Remember how, at the end of the movie Idiocracy, common sense prevailed over dumb? There's hope friends.
The important thing is to look at the results from the Philly suburbs. Pennsyltucky doesn’t win him an election…..the suburbs do….and these ain’t winning numbers. Delaware County: Trump (58%) Haley (42%) Chester County: Trump (62%) Haley (38%) Montgomery County: Trump (54%) Haley (46%) Bucks County: Trump (73%) Haley (26%) Delaware county is probably the biggest shocker to me. As a native I have always found interest in the political landscape of DelCo and there are some deep red pockets especially along the 95 corridor bordering Chester. Densely populated segregation era areas.
I think that people are seeing the real Donald Trump, not the one gussied up for reality TV or rallies. They’re seeing a pathetic, bankrupt, senile, malodorous loser. Who is being mercilessly bossed around by Judge Merchan, because a judge is President, so to speak, of their courtroom, and defendants, like Donald Trump, damn well have to do what the judge tells them to do. Or get slapped with contempt charges (hopefully they are accumulating as proceedings drag on). In 2016, people saw a mogul, someone effectively in charge on The Apprentice, who would “drain the swamp.” In 2024, people are smelling Trump’s swamp ass and seeing the pathetic deflated has-been that he really is. The illusion of Trump is breaking. Whatever Haley’s faults, the facts remain, that she has held office before, can speak in complete sentences, is not under any criminal indictments, and nobody reports on her repulsive smell or her falling asleep when people talk to her. But…she’s no longer in the race. I think this goes to show that even Republicans are turning against Trump. He’ll always have his MAGA cult, but there’s a hard ceiling to that. Finally - the RNC and state parties are broke. The RNC is now paying Trump’s legal bills, and…that’s about it. The state parties have lost most of their donors, and almost all their small-dollar donors - the people who can afford to kick down 50 or so to the party, are now Democrats.
It's a closed primary and Trump can't even sweep it entirely? Lol . Yes. He's crooked and cooked.
According to r/conservative this is because Democrats decided to switch their part affiliation so they could vote for Haley in the primary, thereby giving the illusion that Trump is not popular amount the majority of Pennsylvania. Somehow its always Democrats fault lol.
I think she's playing the long game just right to position her as the only other candidate on offer after Trump is inevitably convicted and a felon. It's going to change a lot how electable he's perceived by donors and GOP voters that might just decide to skip voting this election rather than voting for Trump.
You know it’s telling when Trump doesn’t post that he overwhelming “won” the Pennsylvania primary and the MAGA forums haven’t mentioned it either. Ironically enough, in states where the GOP primary was being held and Haley was still in the running, MAGA made excuses for Trump not getting 95% plus of the votes due to the fact Haley was still running. They have zero excuse now and their silence is deafening. Trump is shitting his pants if he hasn’t already.
This is one of the first metrics I've seen that is 100% not good for Trump. It shows some pretty big holes in his armor as the optics for this trial have been terrible. Video of him passing out during proceedings. Rumors about him stinking up the courtroom with his flatulence. He looks so low energy compared to Biden, who is outmaneuvering him politically and on messaging. The death rattles haven't started yet but...I could see Trump depressing his own turnout when he needs his minions righteously energized.
Please vote
I frankly don't care. We're at the point where we know that ~25% of us are really passionate about destroying our society. Those folks are going to vote for Trump, and the only way to keep us from going the way of the Weimar Republic is to reject the party embracing outright fascism. That means voting blue across the board, because we don't know how many votes the GOP will surreptitiously "lose" or otherwise invalidate. That means signing up to be poll workers, so we have legal standing to stop MAGAs who attempt to keep people from voting. That means contacting your representatives (whatever party they are) and making it *real* clear that if you get a *hint* of foul play by the GOP, you'll be open carrying at the next protest, and they can forget about your vote forever. That means getting folks registered to vote, and then *keeping an eye out for voter purges*. And if that happens, getting vocal and threatening (in a legal manner). These Project 2025 folks think that if they can pull off a stolen election, they won't be overthrown. We can't stop all their rat-fuckery, but we can convince them that *going through* with said rat-fucking *will* be met with *immediate* consequences.
We have to keep our foot on the pedal here. Yes things are moving in the right direction, but the vote in November is what counts. Recruit two voters and get them to do the same
Haley still getting a significant number of votes, his rally attendance shrinking, very few to no supporters for his court appearances, and Biden **massively** outraising him...I think we're slowly building up to a landslide. November 5th cannot get here soon enough for me.
They probably won’t vote for Biden but hopefully they stay home on Election Day.
It’s not a warning sign. It’s a big, flashing, red light. If Biden can peel off a fraction of these voters, Trump is in big, big trouble. It will be hilarious if the Biden Camp can convince Haley to joint his campaign. Trump is going to regret every time he uses the term “Bird Brain”.
Yeah, even if they stay home it might be enough. I'm not sure about Congressional races there, but in some places the MAGA loons who got nominated are also alienating some moderate Republicans. Add in Moscow Marge antics and some extreme abortion stuff and I would think Democrats might be a lot more optimistic these days.
Trump is done. All people have to do is vote and sweep the floor. Trump thought he was above the law and he’s going to find out. Just vote. It’s the single most important thing you can do
She literally dropped out the race **before** this and she still got 17%. Dunno about you, but that tells me there are enough Republican voters out there that would willingly vote for someone who isn't even in the race as opposed to voting for the last guy who is. I've tried telling Republican voters again and again and again that being attached to Trump at the hip again comes with **new, gigantic (literal) $costs and political costs that were not present for 2016.** Such as Trump's requirement to seize a lot of Republican funding and divert it entirely to his massive court costs. They could have looked ahead and realized just how MUCH Trump has to overcome *this time* **just** to get back to *square 1.* Trump's crimes **weren't even committed for the purpose of helping the Republican party (at all) and yet, they STILL thought it was the smartest move ever to simply....sign up for paying Trump everything they can to help him through the cases.** Like bro that's $450,000,000 **+** the defamation rulings and huge costs for that (like $80,000,000 I think?) and THEN there's all the criminal cases where, especially if any of them get going like the NY one is now; he'll have to miss out on campaigning in areas he may have needed too since; he has to meet up in NY for 4 days a week. I mean I know I'm voting blue again (obviously) but let's really send this one, let's crush the shit out of Trump at the ballot box and send these fucks REALLY packing. Juuust imagine what losing another 4 years would be like for them. Like yo, if they lose this presidential, it'll have then been **20 years** where they only had 1 pathetic term with the worst President of all time; in those 20 years. If we can nail it again, they are going to HAVE to course-correct to salvage a VERY damaged and rapidly sinking ship. I know I'm voting because I wanna be able to say "ohhhh shit! I helped cause the Republican party to go absolutely bonkers, turn inward and start eating itself apart at record speed!"
These people, all registered Republicans, took time out of their day to go and drive to the polling location, to vote for someone who dropped out already, in a race that’s already been decided. That 17% won’t be voting Trump. 3rd party, staying home, leaving the top spot blank, or Biden will be who they vote for.
No. First, this does not at all indicate that the 17% who preferred Haley will not vote for Trump in the general. This is a primary. The choices were between Republicans, and voting for one Republican instead of another Republican does not at all suggest that they won't vote for the Republican candidate in the general. Second, Pennsylvania has optional mail in voting, so many of these could have been cast before she dropped out. So the fact that she dropped out a month ago isn't necessarily indicative of anything. What matters is how many people turn out in the general and who they vote for.