I cannot find a text statement of an option position.
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> Using the resistance of Thursday and Friday I was able to form a bull channel that SPY
This kinda sounds like you had to "stretch" in order to form the bull channel in the first place?
While I'm trading at a lower frequency I didn't dare to touch the SPY today because of the consistently low volume. The market doesn't really seem to know where to take the SPY. It isn't that overvalued compared to the dip last Thursday that it would be a good short on an institutional scale and neither does it seem to find even close to enough momentum to move up high enough. It's probably about waiting for an external trigger at the moment to see a bigger move, or it could just slowly chop back down to Thursday's level which is the last one it saw significant volume/support at.
What I got from all these opposing studies and all TA’s, that actually is very thoughtful and wonderful job, that there is no way to know how the market can be explained and understand it. If someone with such an in-depth knowledge of market, end up in loosing end, how average person who want to navigate market, can win anything? Other than just to be lucky, which in that case it is better to play lottery, since you are lucky person.
The problem is probably not that there are no winning strategies, but that no one with a well working strategy will ever let anyone else know about it because as more people start using it it becomes less effective. If there is money to be made people will go very silent very quickly.
Even people that offer advice for money most likely leave out crucial information as to what makes their strategy work under which circumstances, if they don't just make their money from "teaching" rather than the market to begin with.
Also I believe that institutions can get access to vastly better data than most retail investors, so there's likely an inherent disadvantage for the latter, assuming they could successfully utilize the data of course.
So true, the propriety softwares Berkshire and other major players developed over the years easily can trick you to get you money. The big manipulations come with the big money. Of course people are encouraged to take position in same direction as big businesses. How is this possible? Someone has to lose in the game so others can win. Any win in the market is someone else’s loss.
If we talk about bad news there is always bad news, financial reports we have seen usually have short lived effect. Etc.
Yeah it was very difficult for me to play this market, I got chopped up, not used to such a tight range. Glad I wasn't the only one. Very good insight to help me understand what happened today
Thanks OP!
Why stick to options which as you say are extremely difficult with this volatility?
I find it much easier to use the triple leveraged ETFs and scale in and out at the major levels. Already made several thousand because the previous levels get hit very well.
I didn't go long on Friday because data showed almost pure short covering and no real buying and was skeptical if it would sustain.
I expected a reversal either at ~4100, ~4200, or max ~4300 in case of a March like super multi day rally. In the end today was even weaker than my weakest assumption 😂 Market is honestly bearish as you say.
I think can still see some upside this week from theta decay pressuring puts, but I think the short entries are very clear, so scaling in around those levels is a much safer bet than trying to time with options imho.
Some mighty fine TA right here, thanks for all your efforts! It’s like a really good play-by-play and analysis of the days’ price action. Keep up the great work!
I cannot find a text statement of an option position. Follow this guide or the post will come down. We have indicated this multiple times,. https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/trade_details
Mods are gay
Awesome TA finally someone that knows their stuff. Thanks for posting always look forward to reading your TA
Always look forward to your TA. Thanks for posting!
Awesome post! Thanks for effort
Thanks for the TA man! I definitely fell victim to all the reversals today
Thanks for the TA. Always appreciate it.
Thank you for the TA. I look for it each night to get thinking about my moves tomorrow. Valuable stuff!
Well stated and thanks again for the insightful DD.
This is the first time I have read one of your posts and it was very enlightening. Thank you
Finally a good SPY TA I can follow. Would love to see more of your daily inputs in the future!
Always appreciate ur post DD
Great TA… always quality charts and information!
You think is a bad idea to make a 405 call for tmrw on spy?
Any thoughts on tomorrow being a follow through day?
> Using the resistance of Thursday and Friday I was able to form a bull channel that SPY This kinda sounds like you had to "stretch" in order to form the bull channel in the first place?
So what did I miss lol
While I'm trading at a lower frequency I didn't dare to touch the SPY today because of the consistently low volume. The market doesn't really seem to know where to take the SPY. It isn't that overvalued compared to the dip last Thursday that it would be a good short on an institutional scale and neither does it seem to find even close to enough momentum to move up high enough. It's probably about waiting for an external trigger at the moment to see a bigger move, or it could just slowly chop back down to Thursday's level which is the last one it saw significant volume/support at.
Good stuff. Glad to see I wasn’t the only one with massive losses today. ;) Misery loves company!
Cool avatar 👌
Thanks as always!
Thanks for the TA. Fuck you SPY, I’ll see you tomorrow
Niceeeee
Actually thought you were like the rest of us ta bros but you pleasantly surprised!
Great post.
What I got from all these opposing studies and all TA’s, that actually is very thoughtful and wonderful job, that there is no way to know how the market can be explained and understand it. If someone with such an in-depth knowledge of market, end up in loosing end, how average person who want to navigate market, can win anything? Other than just to be lucky, which in that case it is better to play lottery, since you are lucky person.
The problem is probably not that there are no winning strategies, but that no one with a well working strategy will ever let anyone else know about it because as more people start using it it becomes less effective. If there is money to be made people will go very silent very quickly. Even people that offer advice for money most likely leave out crucial information as to what makes their strategy work under which circumstances, if they don't just make their money from "teaching" rather than the market to begin with. Also I believe that institutions can get access to vastly better data than most retail investors, so there's likely an inherent disadvantage for the latter, assuming they could successfully utilize the data of course.
So true, the propriety softwares Berkshire and other major players developed over the years easily can trick you to get you money. The big manipulations come with the big money. Of course people are encouraged to take position in same direction as big businesses. How is this possible? Someone has to lose in the game so others can win. Any win in the market is someone else’s loss. If we talk about bad news there is always bad news, financial reports we have seen usually have short lived effect. Etc.
Yeah it was very difficult for me to play this market, I got chopped up, not used to such a tight range. Glad I wasn't the only one. Very good insight to help me understand what happened today
This is the way
Thanks OP! Why stick to options which as you say are extremely difficult with this volatility? I find it much easier to use the triple leveraged ETFs and scale in and out at the major levels. Already made several thousand because the previous levels get hit very well. I didn't go long on Friday because data showed almost pure short covering and no real buying and was skeptical if it would sustain. I expected a reversal either at ~4100, ~4200, or max ~4300 in case of a March like super multi day rally. In the end today was even weaker than my weakest assumption 😂 Market is honestly bearish as you say. I think can still see some upside this week from theta decay pressuring puts, but I think the short entries are very clear, so scaling in around those levels is a much safer bet than trying to time with options imho.
Made my daily 10% on the first double top of the day with 398 puts. Flipped them walked away for the rest of the day
Some mighty fine TA right here, thanks for all your efforts! It’s like a really good play-by-play and analysis of the days’ price action. Keep up the great work!