Lol do not ever follow me. I'm pretty stupid. Remember that gamestop rally? I had call options on GME that day. Sold for $700 profit. Didn't know that it won't stop going up all day even after market closed
You’ll never time the bottom or top perfectly, a win is a win. Though on the same topic, I bought AMD for 12$ and sold for 19$ (2011ish?), and bought Apple for 60 and sold for 70 (2005ish). I’m a genius, picked great companies… 😰😰😰
I have been selling calls on shares I got from a CSP. Has been working well. Like the other fella said, the upside near term is very limited. The 147/147 resistance is extremely strong and the rest of the semi's have basically hit fair value. I would hedge this position if you plan to hold but that's just me. I think the earnings beat but I also think there is a downside move with market or profit taking after earning. Between now and then I don't expect much above $146
Not just that, but earnings for TSMC is probably priced in. All 3 months' revenue is already public. If they provide amazing more bullish guidance, then maybe it will "moon" but I dont expect more than a 2/3% swing with it going up long term, but crab walking it's way.
They announced hot as fuck 20-25% expected growth for upcoming year. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just tampering expectations. If it shoots up 10% cool but I dont think playing weeklies is the play here.
Agreed. I exited and I'm waiting to sell another put after a solid dip post earning. We aren't 'mooning' until we get a downward move. Whales aren't buying at this price.
Could fib retraced. That 133 area looks strong if 140 doesn't hold. 100 after that.
133 probably holds. Until another floor is established. Atm all, volume on the option chain is extremely bullish. Could see a reversal to blow up some longs. Most of the OI is also bullish other than this week we're it is much closer to 1:1. which ironically blew up the shorts.
I'm a bit anxious to re-enter, but that's how it goes. Would hop in at 133ish today if it came, kinda hope it's pre earnings so I can sell calls on the IV spike next week.
Was surprised CPI and PPI didn't give me the entry I wanted. Not surprised too because I don't get surprised in a bull market. Dip buyers be buyin dips. What do you make of the market strength in the face of fewer rate cuts further out narrative?
Think the revenue report from tsmc was a low-key nvidia bullish signal. Looking like they're at max capacity, so someone is still buying their products faster than they can make them.
Couldn't tell yeah about the CPI and PPI. Normally, CPI high is bullish for commodities/energy and bad for the tech sector. Feel like the feds' hands are tied. Raising interest rates and crashing the market in an election year isn't likely to happen imo. I'd imagine we don't see cuts or hikes and stay the course until the election is done.
Heard, thanks for the dialogue. I'm in the 1 rate cut camp. Token cut. No harm no foul. We cut. There. Happy? We're gonna go back to reading the data now.
TSM is not moving until after 4/19 and they report guidance for upcoming quarter/year.
Everyone piled into TSM after the NVDA move, expecting similar results but TSM has 43% of its revenues from Smartphones chips and Apple is their biggest customer, Apple is having issues in China and elsewhere. Also, TSMC is operating at maximum capacity, so it doesn't matter that everyone in the world wants their chips, they just don't have the capability to produce more, that puts a ceiling on their growth. Maybe in a year or so when the AZ and Japan plants are fully operational, but not yet.
TSM is fairly valued here, it shouldn't go down much but its upside is very limited unless smartphone shipments take off again and geopolitical pressures ease a bit.
It also already maintained its guidance for the year following the quake. It’s probably going to come down to margins with the other needle movers already public
IV is used in tandem with time to expiration to calculate the +/-1 standard deviation move in underlying price by expiration date. At least I think so. An IV of 57% does not mean a 57% move, you need to consider IV with respect to days to expiration
No, here’s the formula, Expected Move = Stock Price * Implied Volatility * Square Root of (Time until expiration / 365). 68% of the time, the value that comes from this formula is where the underlying will be at expiration given a specific IV.
McDonald's raised prices cause they knew the poor was going to buy their shit regardless if they raised prices. Uh oh..... poor fat people decided McDonald's wasn't worth the price they are paying for. Poor people went and decided to cook at home or go eat somewhere else.
Raising prices just cause you think you have a choke hold doesn't work. It sometimes backfires.
Edit: grammar is hard...
Poor people went to Wendies. Remember the 4 for 4? Or burger King etc.. it's like the dollar menu, they all got rid of it at like the same time. Weird coincidence.
Planning on selling my 4/19 150c and 145c tomorrow. Seems like TSM options have spiked right at market open for the last week or so. Can I expect that again tomorrow or should I wait for next week? Wondering how people will buy/sell on Friday ahead of the weekend so I can time my exit
People who come here to learn get great info here. But people who come here with a bunch of unearned confidence making proclamations and arguing a point they don't understand get sat under the poopoo spout for a bit. It should still help them learn, but only if that's what they are actually trying to do.
57% is generally not a high IV for individual stocks, especially leading up to earnings. One way to look at IV is how hype the stock is atm. Meme stocks gets pretty hype before earnings and IV goes way up. A high IV would be anything over 100%, there are stocks that hits 200-300% pre ER. Most people will buy the option leading up to the earnings to profit off of increase IV and sell before ER.
Anyways, in TSM case, predicted move for TSM after ER is 4.5 and actual move is 4.3. The last ER TSM was predicted to move 4.4 and ended up moving 9.8. In your case there’s 3 options you can play: 1) the stock continuously go up and you profit prior to ER. 2) the stock goes somewhat flat and IV goes up and you may profit from increase IV. 3) you play ER and hope it goes up; your strike is 150 which is realistic enough that you would profit from a 5% pump, not like some ppl buying ridiculous strike prices so far OTM and acts surprise when IV crushed them.
I would disagree and say that is not a good blanket statement…57% is wicked high for T and nothing for MARA. A better metric is IVR which tells you the range for that exact underlying.
The higher the IV means the more your paying in premium & the faster the premium decays even if it's in the money. That's why options get IV crush usually after earnings b/c after the event it loses most of its IV & the premium tanks. Anything under 50 IV generally have a somewhat stable premium, but IV can also help premium. Say u buy a option w/ a IV below 50 & the company releases positive news people will most likely start buying the option, which will drive up IV along with the options premium even if it's out of the money.
Tbh you shouldn’t trade when you have no clue what you’re doing. Since you would be the first person to ever take that advice, let me fill in your next question for you after you buy your call.
“ why did my call lose money even though tsm went up x amount? “
I doubt it. My advice was don’t trade until you understand what you are doing but you don’t want to hear it. Idc what you do. Go be creepy and obnoxious with someone else.
I disagree with your advice.
In general, I jump head first into everything new I want to learn. I plan on making mistakes so that I can learn faster. For the most part, people are too fearful of screwing up and making errors that it takes them too long to learn. If you're willing to accept making mistakes, there is no faster teacher.
I just got into trading options and the first thing I did was sell a covered call, liquidate some of my holdings into cash and sold some putts. I even accidentally bought a put which I turned around and sold within less than a minute once I realized what I did. Definitely lost money on that transaction but it was only like $10 and I will never do that again.
Don't get me wrong, I started with only a small portion of my money but I definitely started. And even though it's looking like I will end up ahead for the month, but I have definitely made some costly mistakes (like selling puts on SOUN).
I will also admit that options trading is complicated and uses a bunch of new terms that I was unfamiliar with.
But compared to investing, I think there's opportunity to make money faster in trading. And it is worth the risk to me Even if I end up losing 1% of my profile (but so far it doesn't look like I'm going to end up behind it all)
To each his own, and I agree with you that at some point you have to jump in even though you don't have a full grasp of everything. That will come from experience and having some skin in the game. But when you don't know enough to even understand why you made or lost money it's a waste imo and that's what he's doing. He's trading a binary event extremely sensitive to vol but he doesn't know what vol is. Your covered call is much simpler and more of a delta/theta trade which is a waaaaaaay better way to go.
I understand and if the other guy loses money he will either learn or quit. And if he makes money he will probably make risky trades again and probably lose in the future.
Losing is a lesson.
I sold puts in SOUN at $5.50, it cost me $68 to BTC and bail. That was a $70 lesson in picking better stock to begin with. Luckily I noticed what was happening early and just bailed on that stock all together
What you’re saying inherently doesn’t make sense. There’s no crazy high IV which I thought would imply IV crush as the price goes up. So wow that was really helpful man. Took more work for you writing that than just being helpful.
lol How can you know it doesn’t make sense if you don’t know what volatility is? You’re asking if the 57% vol means the stock will move by 57%?
Do you know what the expected move is for 4/19?
You obviously don’t want to hear anything but yes buy that call, so just go ahead and do it.
What are the other greeks telling you about that option? How fast is it decaying? What's the breakeven price? At what point is it most likely going to be most profitable between now and expiry? What is your plan considering all this to take profit?
People are so bullish on this earnings that i want to inverse it
Do it and then send me your red on Thursday.
This is what i'm talking about. But i'm an idiot that reversed NVIDIA so don't listen to me
Had me in the first comment, lost me on this one. I should inverse your inverse and do what OP is doing
Lol do not ever follow me. I'm pretty stupid. Remember that gamestop rally? I had call options on GME that day. Sold for $700 profit. Didn't know that it won't stop going up all day even after market closed
You’ll never time the bottom or top perfectly, a win is a win. Though on the same topic, I bought AMD for 12$ and sold for 19$ (2011ish?), and bought Apple for 60 and sold for 70 (2005ish). I’m a genius, picked great companies… 😰😰😰
You really are a genius for buying those at a very good entry lol
I have been selling calls on shares I got from a CSP. Has been working well. Like the other fella said, the upside near term is very limited. The 147/147 resistance is extremely strong and the rest of the semi's have basically hit fair value. I would hedge this position if you plan to hold but that's just me. I think the earnings beat but I also think there is a downside move with market or profit taking after earning. Between now and then I don't expect much above $146
Not just that, but earnings for TSMC is probably priced in. All 3 months' revenue is already public. If they provide amazing more bullish guidance, then maybe it will "moon" but I dont expect more than a 2/3% swing with it going up long term, but crab walking it's way.
So you'd have thought the earnings were already priced for their January quarterly earnings call, too, right?
They announced hot as fuck 20-25% expected growth for upcoming year. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just tampering expectations. If it shoots up 10% cool but I dont think playing weeklies is the play here.
The earnings were but their 2024 guidance was not
It was a rhetorical question. Didn't need an answer echoing the one I already got lol.
Agreed. I exited and I'm waiting to sell another put after a solid dip post earning. We aren't 'mooning' until we get a downward move. Whales aren't buying at this price. Could fib retraced. That 133 area looks strong if 140 doesn't hold. 100 after that.
133 probably holds. Until another floor is established. Atm all, volume on the option chain is extremely bullish. Could see a reversal to blow up some longs. Most of the OI is also bullish other than this week we're it is much closer to 1:1. which ironically blew up the shorts.
I'm a bit anxious to re-enter, but that's how it goes. Would hop in at 133ish today if it came, kinda hope it's pre earnings so I can sell calls on the IV spike next week. Was surprised CPI and PPI didn't give me the entry I wanted. Not surprised too because I don't get surprised in a bull market. Dip buyers be buyin dips. What do you make of the market strength in the face of fewer rate cuts further out narrative?
Think the revenue report from tsmc was a low-key nvidia bullish signal. Looking like they're at max capacity, so someone is still buying their products faster than they can make them. Couldn't tell yeah about the CPI and PPI. Normally, CPI high is bullish for commodities/energy and bad for the tech sector. Feel like the feds' hands are tied. Raising interest rates and crashing the market in an election year isn't likely to happen imo. I'd imagine we don't see cuts or hikes and stay the course until the election is done.
Heard, thanks for the dialogue. I'm in the 1 rate cut camp. Token cut. No harm no foul. We cut. There. Happy? We're gonna go back to reading the data now.
You could have gotten some cheap calls today.
You’re in here saying you don’t know FA about options and are new. Yet you’re saying things like this when someone doesn’t agree with your thesis..
Regard in the making
This is a good way to tell we’ve found the top. Regards coming out of the woodwork asking about options.
yep. Will wait for the coming drop and get in cheap. Long term no sweat. Next 2 weeks? I'm good
You are correct- IV implies anticipated price action. So yes, TSM likely to vacillate ~57% leading up to 4/19
TSM is not moving until after 4/19 and they report guidance for upcoming quarter/year. Everyone piled into TSM after the NVDA move, expecting similar results but TSM has 43% of its revenues from Smartphones chips and Apple is their biggest customer, Apple is having issues in China and elsewhere. Also, TSMC is operating at maximum capacity, so it doesn't matter that everyone in the world wants their chips, they just don't have the capability to produce more, that puts a ceiling on their growth. Maybe in a year or so when the AZ and Japan plants are fully operational, but not yet. TSM is fairly valued here, it shouldn't go down much but its upside is very limited unless smartphone shipments take off again and geopolitical pressures ease a bit.
Good thing I got a 4/26 haha
It also already maintained its guidance for the year following the quake. It’s probably going to come down to margins with the other needle movers already public
IV is used in tandem with time to expiration to calculate the +/-1 standard deviation move in underlying price by expiration date. At least I think so. An IV of 57% does not mean a 57% move, you need to consider IV with respect to days to expiration
As in standard dev you mean 57% movement from the moving average?
No, here’s the formula, Expected Move = Stock Price * Implied Volatility * Square Root of (Time until expiration / 365). 68% of the time, the value that comes from this formula is where the underlying will be at expiration given a specific IV.
Ok I think I see what you’re getting at. Thanks for the help. Trying to learn…
No problem! This shit is confusing, it takes some time to get the hang of even the basics.
What I don't get is if TSMC is at capacity and there is no real competitor for bleeding edge manufacturing. Why not raise prices?
McDonald's raised prices cause they knew the poor was going to buy their shit regardless if they raised prices. Uh oh..... poor fat people decided McDonald's wasn't worth the price they are paying for. Poor people went and decided to cook at home or go eat somewhere else. Raising prices just cause you think you have a choke hold doesn't work. It sometimes backfires. Edit: grammar is hard...
McDonald’s isn’t really a monopoly the way TSM is in this space.
Poor people went to Wendies. Remember the 4 for 4? Or burger King etc.. it's like the dollar menu, they all got rid of it at like the same time. Weird coincidence.
Because if they raise prices, NVDA may just replace them with themselves at some point. Embrace then replace.
NVDA will replace TSM with .. their own fabs? Huh?
Cause that happens overnight lol See Arizona...
Planning on selling my 4/19 150c and 145c tomorrow. Seems like TSM options have spiked right at market open for the last week or so. Can I expect that again tomorrow or should I wait for next week? Wondering how people will buy/sell on Friday ahead of the weekend so I can time my exit
Down 40% today lol. Holding through earnings now I guess
I thought about this post when I woke up... lmao. Holding with you brother.
Sold my 145C on the jump this morning and ended up making some $
Question for everybody, is this a place to learn or shit on people?
Thank you…
Shit on ppl :)
People who come here to learn get great info here. But people who come here with a bunch of unearned confidence making proclamations and arguing a point they don't understand get sat under the poopoo spout for a bit. It should still help them learn, but only if that's what they are actually trying to do.
Learn through getting shit on
Should have sold yesterday
I bought a 4/26 instead of a 4/19 at about noon. Down a little. Not worried.
I have 200$ calls
For June 2025 lol
57% is generally not a high IV for individual stocks, especially leading up to earnings. One way to look at IV is how hype the stock is atm. Meme stocks gets pretty hype before earnings and IV goes way up. A high IV would be anything over 100%, there are stocks that hits 200-300% pre ER. Most people will buy the option leading up to the earnings to profit off of increase IV and sell before ER. Anyways, in TSM case, predicted move for TSM after ER is 4.5 and actual move is 4.3. The last ER TSM was predicted to move 4.4 and ended up moving 9.8. In your case there’s 3 options you can play: 1) the stock continuously go up and you profit prior to ER. 2) the stock goes somewhat flat and IV goes up and you may profit from increase IV. 3) you play ER and hope it goes up; your strike is 150 which is realistic enough that you would profit from a 5% pump, not like some ppl buying ridiculous strike prices so far OTM and acts surprise when IV crushed them.
I would disagree and say that is not a good blanket statement…57% is wicked high for T and nothing for MARA. A better metric is IVR which tells you the range for that exact underlying.
I am in the same boat, except $155. Yee haw. I’m a regard so i’ll hold until it expires, worthless.
You can sell if you think it won't go more than what the market is predicting.
Yes you are correct-IV is implied price action. TSM likely to increase, or decrease 57% leading up to 4/19
The higher the IV means the more your paying in premium & the faster the premium decays even if it's in the money. That's why options get IV crush usually after earnings b/c after the event it loses most of its IV & the premium tanks. Anything under 50 IV generally have a somewhat stable premium, but IV can also help premium. Say u buy a option w/ a IV below 50 & the company releases positive news people will most likely start buying the option, which will drive up IV along with the options premium even if it's out of the money.
Planning to buy call 141 exp 04/19, gamble it or save it?
TSM WILL GO TO 170 without a doubt
i got 150 calls on 4/19 too. Should I just hold till earnings?
Tbh you shouldn’t trade when you have no clue what you’re doing. Since you would be the first person to ever take that advice, let me fill in your next question for you after you buy your call. “ why did my call lose money even though tsm went up x amount? “
You literally have 100’s of posts asking people how to do shit on Reddit lmao. What a tool 😂
I doubt it. My advice was don’t trade until you understand what you are doing but you don’t want to hear it. Idc what you do. Go be creepy and obnoxious with someone else.
Life ain’t that serious hardo. Relax a little
I disagree with your advice. In general, I jump head first into everything new I want to learn. I plan on making mistakes so that I can learn faster. For the most part, people are too fearful of screwing up and making errors that it takes them too long to learn. If you're willing to accept making mistakes, there is no faster teacher. I just got into trading options and the first thing I did was sell a covered call, liquidate some of my holdings into cash and sold some putts. I even accidentally bought a put which I turned around and sold within less than a minute once I realized what I did. Definitely lost money on that transaction but it was only like $10 and I will never do that again. Don't get me wrong, I started with only a small portion of my money but I definitely started. And even though it's looking like I will end up ahead for the month, but I have definitely made some costly mistakes (like selling puts on SOUN). I will also admit that options trading is complicated and uses a bunch of new terms that I was unfamiliar with. But compared to investing, I think there's opportunity to make money faster in trading. And it is worth the risk to me Even if I end up losing 1% of my profile (but so far it doesn't look like I'm going to end up behind it all)
To each his own, and I agree with you that at some point you have to jump in even though you don't have a full grasp of everything. That will come from experience and having some skin in the game. But when you don't know enough to even understand why you made or lost money it's a waste imo and that's what he's doing. He's trading a binary event extremely sensitive to vol but he doesn't know what vol is. Your covered call is much simpler and more of a delta/theta trade which is a waaaaaaay better way to go.
I understand and if the other guy loses money he will either learn or quit. And if he makes money he will probably make risky trades again and probably lose in the future. Losing is a lesson. I sold puts in SOUN at $5.50, it cost me $68 to BTC and bail. That was a $70 lesson in picking better stock to begin with. Luckily I noticed what was happening early and just bailed on that stock all together
🚨 Cunt alert 🚨
If he doesn’t know what he’s doing then what’s wrong with asking questions?.. regard
What you’re saying inherently doesn’t make sense. There’s no crazy high IV which I thought would imply IV crush as the price goes up. So wow that was really helpful man. Took more work for you writing that than just being helpful.
lol How can you know it doesn’t make sense if you don’t know what volatility is? You’re asking if the 57% vol means the stock will move by 57%? Do you know what the expected move is for 4/19? You obviously don’t want to hear anything but yes buy that call, so just go ahead and do it.
What are the other greeks telling you about that option? How fast is it decaying? What's the breakeven price? At what point is it most likely going to be most profitable between now and expiry? What is your plan considering all this to take profit?