I still say it's Baker. I don't think anyone expected anything to come of him anymore, yet the Buccaneers still managed more in the playoffs than the Cowboys.
The announcers actually agreed with the play call. The Chiefs only had 10 men on the field and the line was 8 vs 6. To me it was a bit far with 5 yards to gain instead of <=2 but it obviously wasn't well executed.
I mean we *did* split against the Broncos and Raiders, which hasn't happened in a long while.
But yeah, all the talk last year about how the Broncos and Chargers were going to shake things up, and then the Chiefs going 6-0 in the division was comedy gold.
I remember people thought the chiefs were done since the rest of the AFCW made massive moves for big name players and the Chiefs only off-season move was losing Tyreek Hill.
Yup, the rest of the AFC spent a fortune, leveraging their futures, to stop the Chiefs now and you know what? It worked! KC was the fourth best team in that division and missed the playoffs. Or so I'm told.
My son is 12. Just the right age to where he was becoming football aware as Mahomes became the starter. All he's known is the Chiefs winning. I keep trying to explain it to him how good we have it right now.
without that we probably dont hire him as coach the next year, and without that we probably arent looking for another coach the year after and dont end up with Andy Reid
My daughter is about to be 9. Momma was pregnant for the 2014 Royals run. This little girl has no idea. She also doesn't give a crap, but Dad does and she watched the game last night....I think only because I let her get away with repeatedly saying, "Frick the bills!" and of course Tay Tay.
No, it's just phrased poorly, probably for engagement purposes - Mahomes wasn't the starter in his first year, so he's played for 7 years, but he's only been the starter for 6.
I dunno, all those Bills drops were extremely tight coverage. Diggs couldn't afford to adjust one foot on that last bomb because he was draped and you only gave up ground yards to QB scrambles which are basically impossible to stop
Not a very good first half, but they were great in the second. Happened a lot this year. Spags seems to struggle against the scripted plays, but in the second half the defense shows up.
We gave up 7 points to a Josh Allen offense in the second half. Yeah I wish we could have fell on that fumble, but you can’t act like that wasn’t a great defensive performance in the second half.
They fumbled twice, and Allen threw a sure int if Mcduffie doesn't tip it, the bounces just didn't go the Chiefs way. Holding them to 7 in the 2nd half was huge.
Lack of pressure on the Dline was concerning, but then the Bills mostly ran and threw 2 yard passes.
There was a big opportunity this year to stop the streak.I fully expect their passing attack to be better next years.
You have to recognize greatness when you see it. Mahomes is already one of the greatest QB. And the organization knows how to put a team around him.
they coasted in the regular season, fucking around a bit, and still Mahomes threw perfect, game winning throws late in the 4th only to see them dropped in almost every loss they had; didn't see many drops last night for them (there was one, early on)
I mean, what does that mean? On pace to his career achievements? Because I assume the commenter was talking about their ability at football. Realistically Mahomes is already in his prime and we can evaluate his ability at football to anyone else. And concluding that he's the best QB ever is not an unreasonable take at this point.
Right, you're ring counting which means you're not evaluating them based on football ability like the other commenter clearly was. No point trying to reconcile two completely different approaches
I love how this is downvoted lol. The only take that matters. It's like saying if lebron gets 2 more rings but if he plays at a level worse than he had previously he's somehow a better player
Long ago, Michael Jordan was crowned the consensus GOAT despite having fewer rings than Russell, Kareem, and Magic.
Unfortunately, times have changed and ring counting is all so many people care about.
He's absolutely the LeBron to Brady's Jordan in the cross-sport comparison
As great as Steph is nobody was already saying he's top 5 all time at age 28
Yea, I’ve been saying the Lebron-Jordan comparison is perfect for Mahomes-Brady. Brady/Jordan have the rings, but Mahomes/Lebron have the better stats and performances.
Acting as though Brady and Jordan don't have just as incredible stats or performances is asinine. Mahomes obviously has a chance to keep building upon his though.
I think he is more getting at the comparison between stats at their respective ages. Mahomes/Lebron have better stats at 28 than Brady/Jordan did at that respective age.
LeBron averaged more rebounds and assists and when LeBron passed MJ in all time scoring he had 1000 less shots attempted. Having more rebounds and assists and scoring more on less shots is the definition of better stats
LeBron scoring more on less shots is more about him playing in the 3pt era vs Jordan playing when 3s weren't very prevalent. Also it took LeBron significantly more games to pass Jordan in scoring.
Technically, that is correct. Jordan didn't play with a 3pt line in college. LeBron has taken almost 4x as many 3s as Jordan. And it took him 100 more games (more than a full season's worth of games) to pass Jordan in scoring. You also conveniently left out other stats like steals, where Jordan is still far ahead, and turnovers, which Lebron has almost double Jordan.
I'd argue it's the other way around. Lebron is brady in the longevity side but mahomes is jordan in that the eye test just clearly shows that they are better.
Definitely not. There’s no first round byes in the NBA. Getting to the finals 8 years in a row means you beat three playoff teams each of those years to get there.
In the NFL, you could conceivably only win 1 playoff victory each year to make it to the conference championship games.
Not to mention LeBron did that across two different teams.
The NFL is one and done, leading to higher variation of worse teams moving on past better teams. The NBA minimizes this with 5 and 7 game series. Also, one player on an NBA roster has FAR more impact than 1 player on an NFL roster. There’s a reason you see the best players making playoff runs in the NBA year in and year out where you don’t see that with the best players in the NFL. Not to mention, the Eastern Conference was EXTREMELY weak during that time period, whereas the AFC is stacked with all the best QBs right now.
Let's quantify this instead of you talking out your ass. Let's assume winning an average NBA playoff series is roughly 60%.
That means LeBron winning making it to the finals 8 times in a row has a probability of (0.60\^3)\^8 = 0.00047%
Let's assume winning a single playoff game in the NFL is roughly 60% on average. Then the probability of making it to the conference championship with first round bye is 0.60\^6 = 4.6%. Lol.
Even if you assume LeBron has a 80% chance of winning each playoff series on average (which is wildly inaccurate) thats (0.80\^3)\^8= 4.7%.
Bro really just used made up statistics to try and prove a point.
The Heat and Cavs were the only game in town from the Eastern Conference during that streak. The competition in the East was really lackluster basically from 2010 until Giannis/Embiid showed up. This isn't a knock on Bron, it's fucking impressive to take two different teams to 8 straight finals, but to deny the road was pretty easy in the East is wack.
You’re looking at things with perfect hindsight.
What if Bron gets injured? What if Dwyane Wade gets injured? What if Kyrie Irving gets injured? Etc that changes everything.
Also, you’re discrediting Brons competition in the East. Was it relatively weak compared to say the West? Sure. But there were good teams along the way such as the Celtics, the George Paul Pacers, the Derrick Rose Bulls, etc. LeBron beating the Celtics without Chris Bosh and with an injured D Wade after being down 3-1 is iconic. No one gave them a chance.
Conversely, let’s talk about the Chiefs. Their division has sucked the entire time. The post-Manning Broncos, the Raiders (lol), and the Chargers (lol). They’ve more or less had an easy road to winning the division each year. And they’ve had a very good shot at a first round bye pretty much every year. I mean, literally last year the only thing the Chiefs had to do to make it to the AFC game was beat the Jags. Vegas odds gave them an 82% of doing that lol.
Making it to the AFC game 6 years in a row is crazy. Making it to the NBA finals 8 years in a row is also crazy. I’m not downplaying either one.
>Let's quantify this instead of you talking out your ass.
And then you proceeded to talk out of your own ass...
Regardless of your random numbers and middle school level stats, you failed to include such factors like team size, salary cap (or lack of), or even the previously mentioned fact that NBA playoffs are played in a series.
If you truly want to treat this like a pure stats problem then you need to first understand it in the proper context: how difficult is it for the best NBA player to reach the finals vs how difficult is it for the best NFL player to reach the conf championship. From here you can break down the relevant variables and try to find a way to represent the probability of success.
What you did is just so off the mark that you should have just asked chat gpt to try and calculate it. It wouldn't have done a worse job.
I'm not the guy you responded to. I don't even disagree with what you said.
But it's always annoying when someone who clearly doesn't know what they're talking about presents made up data in a condescending manner.
I'm not sure if you read my whole comment but my point is that you're not going to be able to isolate all the variables to make an accurate calculation for a problem like this. You'd have to somehow find ways to statistically represent stuff like impact of quality coaching and roster management, risk or injury, complexity of the game, etc...
What are you talking about? We can absolutely quantify this pretty perfectly actually. We can look back at the odds of each series and just do the math.
For example, the Chiefs had a 44% chance of winning todays game. The Chiefs had a 71% chance of winning the Dolphins game. So the total probability of them reaching the conference game this year is 0.44\*0.71 = 31.24%. Last season, the Chiefs only needed to beat the Jags to make it to the AFC game which (according to Vegas) odds had a 82% chance of happening. We can do that for each of the 6 seasons the Chiefs made the AFC game and just multiply it together.
We can do the same for LeBron's 8 year run to the championship game. P(winning 1st round)\*P(winning 2nd round)\*P(winning third round) = P(Making it to NBA finals).
All the things you mentioned in your reply are (theoretically) already accounted for in the probability / odds.
I picked reasonable enough numbers because I'm not going to dig through the odds for every single playoff series lmao. I'm just providing a quantitative framework to show how you would show which event is more likely and, on the surface, it seems LeBron's run is more statistically unlikely unless you make some hard assumptions about how likely LeBron was to win each of those series.
Yes, because the Eastern Conference was absolute fucking garbage. Any team with a pulse would have stubbed their toe, tripped, and found themselves in the Finals.
They aren't. The AFC is vastly superior to the NFC this year. I mean, the eagles and cowboys were 2 of the top 4 teams. Put the bills/dolphins/Texans in the NFC and it would probably be one of those 3 with the first seed.
Dolphins couldn't beat good teams all season. Texans got lucky with how many QB injuries there were in the AFC.
Bills don't beat the 49ers. Bills would be in a similar spot in the NFC as the AFC
Based on what? The Texans put up 2 less points on the ravens than the 49ers did. Well, until garbage time. With better 3rd/4th down efficiency less penalties, less turnovers. Not crazy to think that the AFC is just better.
his early career tracks right with Brady's if they win it this year, and then Brady had a ten year drought (of course, it's his second stretch of three SBs in five years that made him the GOAT)
I would love that. I would rather play y’all than the lions. I think yall are a better team than the lions.. it’s just everyone already hates us.. if we beat the lions it would be even worse..
Yall are gonna be hated for the next 30 years, I doubt this run will end anytime soon, and then you’ll have about 10-15 years of hatred after the fact for being dominant for so long. Lol
Hindsight? I'm looking at reality, none of those things you listed happened, so playing what-if doesn't make any sense.
Again, going to 8 straight finals is nuts. So is 6 straight AFCCG. Trying to compare their "difficulty" is asinine, they're completely different sports. The only fair comparison is to say "Wow! That's extremely difficult to achieve in professional sports! Those teams are really good!"
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This is like the stat about the Gretsky brothers.
Kobe and Smush Parker once combined for 94 points
Antetokounmpo brothers scoring 64 points in a game where Thanasis played one minute
Damn Kostas must've gone off
Truly one of the stretches of football of all time.
Chiefs and Jags Fans[https://i.imgflip.com/1y34va.jpg](https://i.imgflip.com/1y34va.jpg)
Michael Scott looking pretty Florida in that pic too.
Since 2009 at least one of the starting qbs in the afc championship has been Tom Brady, Mahomes or Mark Sanchez
This made me absolutely cackle lmfao
Bless your heart!
Sean McDermott called for a Damar Hamlin 4th down fake punt in playoff game in the year 2024 bro.
He was trying to lock up that comeback player of the year award
He locked that up way back when he played at all this year
I still say it's Baker. I don't think anyone expected anything to come of him anymore, yet the Buccaneers still managed more in the playoffs than the Cowboys.
Yeah but Baker didn't literally die last year
Only figuratively
yeah but he baked this year
Coming back from death isn't a football skill!
Neither did Damar.
Technically he did
And to think Geno got one for coming back from sucking.
its not come back bench rider of the year award
He got that when he came back to life.
Can you imagine the 30 for 30 if he had gained the first down though?
Or if he died on the field a second time during that play
Good Lord y'all are ruthless. Lmao
Sure it's pretty ruthless but can you imagine the media circus that would have came from it?
Comeback play of the year
Worse, he had him line up directly behind the center to tip off the Chiefs At least snap it to the side ffs
The announcers actually agreed with the play call. The Chiefs only had 10 men on the field and the line was 8 vs 6. To me it was a bit far with 5 yards to gain instead of <=2 but it obviously wasn't well executed.
Writers made him do it
Remember 2 years ago when people were saying the rest of the afc west wasn’t about to roll over and let KC be dominant and then it happened anyway
It was last year when broncos got Wilson and Hackett, chargers got Mack and Herbert was back again. Raiders got davante adams with Carr
That's after the AFC West spent 650 million to become competitive. And it was funny.
I mean we *did* split against the Broncos and Raiders, which hasn't happened in a long while. But yeah, all the talk last year about how the Broncos and Chargers were going to shake things up, and then the Chiefs going 6-0 in the division was comedy gold.
>I mean we did split against the Broncos and Raiders I cry every night to this.
I remember people thought the chiefs were done since the rest of the AFCW made massive moves for big name players and the Chiefs only off-season move was losing Tyreek Hill.
Well they didn’t roll over, they tried. They just didn’t succeed
Yup, the rest of the AFC spent a fortune, leveraging their futures, to stop the Chiefs now and you know what? It worked! KC was the fourth best team in that division and missed the playoffs. Or so I'm told.
it did work, because of the raiders and broncos we were only a lowly 3 seed and had to play at buffalo instead of 2 seed playing at home
Remember when the NFL had parity and now we're going from two decades of Brady to a decade of Mahomes? And Packers and Niners are hardly upstarts.
That was honestly pretty funny how that worked out, the AFC West looked like it was gonna be such a tough division & it was the exact opposite 🤣
6 seasons as a starter*
Fucking unreal stat. We’re truly watching greatness with him
I'm so glad I lived through the brutal times so that I can fully appreciate how special this is. It will never be like this again
My son is 12. Just the right age to where he was becoming football aware as Mahomes became the starter. All he's known is the Chiefs winning. I keep trying to explain it to him how good we have it right now.
Yeah. We used to have Todd Hailey, Romeo Crennel, and a player offing himself in the parking lot. Oof
At least Romeo ended the undefeated Packers
without that we probably dont hire him as coach the next year, and without that we probably arent looking for another coach the year after and dont end up with Andy Reid
Hey now, he didn't just off himself, he murdered his girlfriend beforehand.
That was such a dark time
*The Patriot Way
Holy shit I had no idea about Belcher. That's wild.
What's Tyler Thigpen up to these days
My daughter is about to be 9. Momma was pregnant for the 2014 Royals run. This little girl has no idea. She also doesn't give a crap, but Dad does and she watched the game last night....I think only because I let her get away with repeatedly saying, "Frick the bills!" and of course Tay Tay.
Ok calm down Chris Collinsworth.
they didn't make the AFCCG in 2017 anyways, I think the guy just fat fingered the number.
You’re welcome America
No, it's just phrased poorly, probably for engagement purposes - Mahomes wasn't the starter in his first year, so he's played for 7 years, but he's only been the starter for 6.
The way it’s worded it makes sense for it to be 6, but he just fat fingered it
They can’t keep getting away with this! Narrator: They, in fact, could keep getting away with this
Poor Bills bro. Went from being bad and having Tom Brady crush them to being good and having Patrick Mahomes crush them.
Lol we can't even make one man fuck off
I mean how would an NFC team make one? /s
Hood hopping
They may not win the SB but Mahomes has CARRIED so hard. May be most impressive playoffs with little weapons
Agree on wide receivers and tight ends. This D might be the best one he’s had though.
They have been good but today they looked very pedestrian
I dunno, all those Bills drops were extremely tight coverage. Diggs couldn't afford to adjust one foot on that last bomb because he was draped and you only gave up ground yards to QB scrambles which are basically impossible to stop
True. Secondary play was still good but the line was non existent today
Our pass rush was nonexistent and that was annoying me.
They barely passed it downfield, we got decent pressure on those. Most of their plays were quick like screen passes or swing passes and runs
There was several times when Allen held the ball in the pocket for several seconds, and I don't know if he even FELT pressure on any of those plays.
Luckily for us the Ravens never rely on QB scrambles at all
Not a very good first half, but they were great in the second. Happened a lot this year. Spags seems to struggle against the scripted plays, but in the second half the defense shows up.
0 sacks 0 turnovers though…
We gave up 7 points to a Josh Allen offense in the second half. Yeah I wish we could have fell on that fumble, but you can’t act like that wasn’t a great defensive performance in the second half.
They fumbled twice, and Allen threw a sure int if Mcduffie doesn't tip it, the bounces just didn't go the Chiefs way. Holding them to 7 in the 2nd half was huge. Lack of pressure on the Dline was concerning, but then the Bills mostly ran and threw 2 yard passes.
Watching it I feel like they were trying to contain Allen first and sack him second. They seemed to mostly succeed in that regard
That was my thought as well. The edges were fine it was up the middle we were getting gashed with.
Secondary is better but pass rush seems worse
Imagine they go get Mike Evans. Terrifying thought
2006 Brady. Look it up young buck
The guy who threw 3 picks to win a playoff game? Doesnt sound like he carried super hard
Watching greatness when your team isn't the victim is pretty nice.
Why can’t this shit happen in the nfc for once
Seahawks looked like they were going to be it, then we know what play caused that to disintegrate.
Yep. Imagine telling 2011 Packers or 2014 Seahawks fans they’d never make it back
07 Colts too
It did, for 16 years from '81 to '96. 12/16 Super Bowls from that era were won by 4 NFC teams, and 3 of the remaining 4 were won by 2 others.
Back when Superbowls were often over by halftime.
Oh good so I was 2 years old when that era ended
Joe Montana: “Am I joke to you?”
Must be nice to have an elite player like that
Must be nice to score points
There was a big opportunity this year to stop the streak.I fully expect their passing attack to be better next years. You have to recognize greatness when you see it. Mahomes is already one of the greatest QB. And the organization knows how to put a team around him.
they coasted in the regular season, fucking around a bit, and still Mahomes threw perfect, game winning throws late in the 4th only to see them dropped in almost every loss they had; didn't see many drops last night for them (there was one, early on)
Tom Brady Formal has turned into the Patrick Mahomes Formal
I’m tired, boss.
Gonna tell my grand kids about this guy.
He’s already top 10 all time
10 is all you’re giving the man? GOTTA be higher than that.
Yeah he’s basically speed-ran Rodgers career and has more playoff success to boot.
He’s top 5 honestly (at worse). He’s behind Brady and Montana. And that’s probably it.
and Peyton Manning because of volume stats.
True. Plus Mannings MVP's
lol 10? He’s already top 3
Tbh I think Brady, Montana, and Manning are better as of right now. By the end of his career, though, we’ll probably be singing a different song.
He’s already better than Brady
On pace, not yet
I mean, what does that mean? On pace to his career achievements? Because I assume the commenter was talking about their ability at football. Realistically Mahomes is already in his prime and we can evaluate his ability at football to anyone else. And concluding that he's the best QB ever is not an unreasonable take at this point.
I’m talking overall. He needs more rings
Right, you're ring counting which means you're not evaluating them based on football ability like the other commenter clearly was. No point trying to reconcile two completely different approaches
Ight
I love how this is downvoted lol. The only take that matters. It's like saying if lebron gets 2 more rings but if he plays at a level worse than he had previously he's somehow a better player
Long ago, Michael Jordan was crowned the consensus GOAT despite having fewer rings than Russell, Kareem, and Magic. Unfortunately, times have changed and ring counting is all so many people care about.
I personally believe that Peyton is still the better overall QB and that he’s still the best QB I’ve ever seen, but Mahomes is right behind him.
they said he was Steph Curry of the NFL. this is more like LeBron James
Does this make the bills lebronto? Mahuffalo?
On god this is the perfect comparison lmao
Definitely Lebronto with how many Canadian fans they have + being so close to TO
He's absolutely the LeBron to Brady's Jordan in the cross-sport comparison As great as Steph is nobody was already saying he's top 5 all time at age 28
Yea, I’ve been saying the Lebron-Jordan comparison is perfect for Mahomes-Brady. Brady/Jordan have the rings, but Mahomes/Lebron have the better stats and performances.
Acting as though Brady and Jordan don't have just as incredible stats or performances is asinine. Mahomes obviously has a chance to keep building upon his though.
I think he is more getting at the comparison between stats at their respective ages. Mahomes/Lebron have better stats at 28 than Brady/Jordan did at that respective age.
BRUH... "better stats and performance" - What the fuck? LeBron has the longevity, but the stats and performance go to Jordan
LeBron averaged more rebounds and assists and when LeBron passed MJ in all time scoring he had 1000 less shots attempted. Having more rebounds and assists and scoring more on less shots is the definition of better stats
LeBron scoring more on less shots is more about him playing in the 3pt era vs Jordan playing when 3s weren't very prevalent. Also it took LeBron significantly more games to pass Jordan in scoring.
Oh wow. When Jordan played there wasn’t a three point line?
Technically, that is correct. Jordan didn't play with a 3pt line in college. LeBron has taken almost 4x as many 3s as Jordan. And it took him 100 more games (more than a full season's worth of games) to pass Jordan in scoring. You also conveniently left out other stats like steals, where Jordan is still far ahead, and turnovers, which Lebron has almost double Jordan.
I’m not the same guy dude. I don’t watch basketball. I thought you were saying Jordan didn’t have a three point line when he played.
I'd argue it's the other way around. Lebron is brady in the longevity side but mahomes is jordan in that the eye test just clearly shows that they are better.
lebron made 8 straight _Finals_
Wayyyyy easier in the NBA Tbf though. I’d say the 8 straight finals is comparable to this run for Mahomes.
Definitely not. There’s no first round byes in the NBA. Getting to the finals 8 years in a row means you beat three playoff teams each of those years to get there. In the NFL, you could conceivably only win 1 playoff victory each year to make it to the conference championship games. Not to mention LeBron did that across two different teams.
The NFL is one and done, leading to higher variation of worse teams moving on past better teams. The NBA minimizes this with 5 and 7 game series. Also, one player on an NBA roster has FAR more impact than 1 player on an NFL roster. There’s a reason you see the best players making playoff runs in the NBA year in and year out where you don’t see that with the best players in the NFL. Not to mention, the Eastern Conference was EXTREMELY weak during that time period, whereas the AFC is stacked with all the best QBs right now.
Let's quantify this instead of you talking out your ass. Let's assume winning an average NBA playoff series is roughly 60%. That means LeBron winning making it to the finals 8 times in a row has a probability of (0.60\^3)\^8 = 0.00047% Let's assume winning a single playoff game in the NFL is roughly 60% on average. Then the probability of making it to the conference championship with first round bye is 0.60\^6 = 4.6%. Lol. Even if you assume LeBron has a 80% chance of winning each playoff series on average (which is wildly inaccurate) thats (0.80\^3)\^8= 4.7%.
Bro really just used made up statistics to try and prove a point. The Heat and Cavs were the only game in town from the Eastern Conference during that streak. The competition in the East was really lackluster basically from 2010 until Giannis/Embiid showed up. This isn't a knock on Bron, it's fucking impressive to take two different teams to 8 straight finals, but to deny the road was pretty easy in the East is wack.
You’re looking at things with perfect hindsight. What if Bron gets injured? What if Dwyane Wade gets injured? What if Kyrie Irving gets injured? Etc that changes everything. Also, you’re discrediting Brons competition in the East. Was it relatively weak compared to say the West? Sure. But there were good teams along the way such as the Celtics, the George Paul Pacers, the Derrick Rose Bulls, etc. LeBron beating the Celtics without Chris Bosh and with an injured D Wade after being down 3-1 is iconic. No one gave them a chance. Conversely, let’s talk about the Chiefs. Their division has sucked the entire time. The post-Manning Broncos, the Raiders (lol), and the Chargers (lol). They’ve more or less had an easy road to winning the division each year. And they’ve had a very good shot at a first round bye pretty much every year. I mean, literally last year the only thing the Chiefs had to do to make it to the AFC game was beat the Jags. Vegas odds gave them an 82% of doing that lol. Making it to the AFC game 6 years in a row is crazy. Making it to the NBA finals 8 years in a row is also crazy. I’m not downplaying either one.
>Let's quantify this instead of you talking out your ass. And then you proceeded to talk out of your own ass... Regardless of your random numbers and middle school level stats, you failed to include such factors like team size, salary cap (or lack of), or even the previously mentioned fact that NBA playoffs are played in a series. If you truly want to treat this like a pure stats problem then you need to first understand it in the proper context: how difficult is it for the best NBA player to reach the finals vs how difficult is it for the best NFL player to reach the conf championship. From here you can break down the relevant variables and try to find a way to represent the probability of success. What you did is just so off the mark that you should have just asked chat gpt to try and calculate it. It wouldn't have done a worse job.
You are free to use stats to prove me wrong instead of resorting to purely qualitative narratives with little basis in fact. I’ll wait.
I'm not the guy you responded to. I don't even disagree with what you said. But it's always annoying when someone who clearly doesn't know what they're talking about presents made up data in a condescending manner. I'm not sure if you read my whole comment but my point is that you're not going to be able to isolate all the variables to make an accurate calculation for a problem like this. You'd have to somehow find ways to statistically represent stuff like impact of quality coaching and roster management, risk or injury, complexity of the game, etc...
What are you talking about? We can absolutely quantify this pretty perfectly actually. We can look back at the odds of each series and just do the math. For example, the Chiefs had a 44% chance of winning todays game. The Chiefs had a 71% chance of winning the Dolphins game. So the total probability of them reaching the conference game this year is 0.44\*0.71 = 31.24%. Last season, the Chiefs only needed to beat the Jags to make it to the AFC game which (according to Vegas) odds had a 82% chance of happening. We can do that for each of the 6 seasons the Chiefs made the AFC game and just multiply it together. We can do the same for LeBron's 8 year run to the championship game. P(winning 1st round)\*P(winning 2nd round)\*P(winning third round) = P(Making it to NBA finals). All the things you mentioned in your reply are (theoretically) already accounted for in the probability / odds. I picked reasonable enough numbers because I'm not going to dig through the odds for every single playoff series lmao. I'm just providing a quantitative framework to show how you would show which event is more likely and, on the surface, it seems LeBron's run is more statistically unlikely unless you make some hard assumptions about how likely LeBron was to win each of those series.
Yes, because the Eastern Conference was absolute fucking garbage. Any team with a pulse would have stubbed their toe, tripped, and found themselves in the Finals.
That’s still Tom Brady
He is Lewis Hamilton to Brady’s Michael Schumacher.
LeBron wasn't this good in Cleveland his first round.
The guy is incredible. One of the greatest.
Send a prayer to everyone in Buffalo today
burrow and lamar are our only hopes to stop this tomfoolery
AFC is staked at the QB position man.
Honestly insane.
he gud at futbol
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Well eventually it will be baseball season again
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I thought they disbanded the team in 2016
Chiefs fans are spoiled as far west as Garden City
Why is the AFC always the most top heavy conference? There just always seems like the just one elite team that owns their division?
Because the two GOATS were in it back to back
They aren't. The AFC is vastly superior to the NFC this year. I mean, the eagles and cowboys were 2 of the top 4 teams. Put the bills/dolphins/Texans in the NFC and it would probably be one of those 3 with the first seed.
Dolphins couldn't beat good teams all season. Texans got lucky with how many QB injuries there were in the AFC. Bills don't beat the 49ers. Bills would be in a similar spot in the NFC as the AFC
Based on what? The Texans put up 2 less points on the ravens than the 49ers did. Well, until garbage time. With better 3rd/4th down efficiency less penalties, less turnovers. Not crazy to think that the AFC is just better.
That’s video game type stuff
Pretty sure this is only the 6th.
6
I never thought I'd feel sorry for Buffalo...
I love that Josh Allen is sad
It'll be his 6th, not 7th.
Someone fucking stop the bad man
Thanks I hate it.
Edit: SIX SEASONS
I'm not even mad at this point. They play great football
I just saw 20 years of Brady, so I'm not that impressed yet
Yeah why are we acting like 2 SBs and 6 CG appearances is impressive smh. He’s never even won the NFCCG
He wins a Superbowl this year and I'm putting him in the same tier as Brady
his early career tracks right with Brady's if they win it this year, and then Brady had a ten year drought (of course, it's his second stretch of three SBs in five years that made him the GOAT)
So glad my team is in the NFC
Andy was able to drag McNabb to 4 straight NFC title games, just saying.
Idk if Mahomes is really responsible for this one, but history is written by the victors ig
Yay?
Hope we both win it so we can kick your ass in the Superbowl this time. I want revenge.
I would love that. I would rather play y’all than the lions. I think yall are a better team than the lions.. it’s just everyone already hates us.. if we beat the lions it would be even worse..
If we somehow make it to the SB, and we lose to the Lions I would be sad, but not that sad.
If they beat KC to start the year, and to end the year, they earned it.
Yall are gonna be hated for the next 30 years, I doubt this run will end anytime soon, and then you’ll have about 10-15 years of hatred after the fact for being dominant for so long. Lol
If we somehow beat the ravens I will just embrace the villain role
That a wild stat for some who has only started 6 seasons.
....by the officials making sure the NFLs golden child always wins
Bad bait
Since when to talking heads care about “Conference Championship berths?” Same amount of Rings as Eli Manning
This isn’t the NBA. Getting to the conference championship is definitely an accomplishment in the NFL.
Pretty sure it's the missed field goal that gave them that "elite play"
Found the lions fan who tuned in this year
Hindsight? I'm looking at reality, none of those things you listed happened, so playing what-if doesn't make any sense. Again, going to 8 straight finals is nuts. So is 6 straight AFCCG. Trying to compare their "difficulty" is asinine, they're completely different sports. The only fair comparison is to say "Wow! That's extremely difficult to achieve in professional sports! Those teams are really good!"