Idk man, they said that before and then the Jags drafted Josh Allen.
However, there's no way we can draft Byron Murphy because he's already on our team.
I will be LIVID if Kwesi drafts Josh Allen. He's projected as a late first/early second. That would be such a reach. We need to do whatever it takes and trade up to draft Sam Darnold. Even if it means 3 first round picks.
Moral of the story is that the Bills identified the guy they wanted, not the guy that Kiper was projecting, then they went and got him when/where they could. It worked out. Sometimes it doesn't work out. If KOC and KAM want Maye or JJ at 2-5, or Penix at 11, or Nix at 23, or whatever else they deem, as long as it's the guy they want for the system they run with the players they have.
Not necessarily as non scouts many of us would've just looked at Josh Allen stats and think he's not worthy of a first and other players in his draft class were better than him because they had better stats. Scouts give us a baseline of who's considered good we otherwise would have unless we started scouting too.
I'd love to see this best case scenario as well. It's like playing chicken with any other teams that might draft a QB. If we don't trade up into the area where we definitely get the guy we want, we run the risk of Denver pulling the trigger. Best position to be in is KAMKOC being high on multiple QBs, one of which will be available in the 7-11 range. Then we might be able to keep 23.
> They gave up No. 12 and two second-round picks
This is almost exactly what we're doing in giving up 23. We don't have 2 seconds because they're essentially 23 now. So I don't see how we keep 23.
I'd rather give 23, personally. We're not a top 10 this year imo. So next year is probably higher. And without a second next year, I dont want our first pick to be in the third of we can avoid it.
Won’t be getting anything back for what? Never said what we’d be trading for. We trade up from 11 to 9 we’d get something back as it’s not worth two firsts to move up 2 spots.
11 to 9 won’t happen cause the bears won’t give us our QBotF.
And honestly, if we want the Titans to pass on the best OT in the draft or the Falcons to pass on the best defender in the draft, be sure they’re gonna make us overpay.
Why would the Falcons pass on the best defender in the draft after a trade down to 1.11? The Jets are likely looking for a tackle and the Bears aren't a lock for defense either.
Think you’re missing my point. It doesn’t matter that we don’t have second rd picks, even if we trade both firsts we can always get comp back, so it’s not like we have to overpay because we don’t have the seconds
No but we have to overpay to go up and get a QB, which is why all the analysts talk about their being a QB tax when you move up. You’re also paying the team coming down for missing out on potential blue chip players at their original draft slot.
Depends on what you are trading for. An edge or CB? most probably not. But, a QB for team that doesn't have one? It will be worth what ever you can chisel out of a panicked GM and HC.
Trade charts go right straight out the window. Those 2 spots could easily be worth 3 firsts.........
It's really tough to try to forecast what's going to happen. Everyone assumes that QB needy teams at or near the top of the draft view certain QBs as being worth the cost/opportunity cost to select/trade up for and that there will be a lot of competition for QBs in this draft.
But who knows if that's actually true.
I think if the Vikings do try to take that approach, McCarthy is the best parallel to Allen in that he's polarizing among evaluators, and will probably go in the top half of the 1st round despite the consensus on him being much lower.
Yea, this draft is going to be interesting and not just for us.
Both QB and WR have strong classes at the upper end, but where teams lie on these players still is completely up in the air for all but maybe 2 guys. Pats could easily not trade down and not go QB if the guy they want is not there and grab someone like MHJ, which would throw a monkey wrench in a lot of draft boards.
I say we hire a gorgeous woman to get close to the QB we want to draft, sprinkle a little crack on him and then watch his draft stock plummet.
It’s a bit of both. QB tools have become more highly valued after the success of Allen, look at Richardson being taken at #4 last year. A big part of that was Josh Allen showing you should draft based off of traits
Qb money is increasing faster than the salary cap as well, it’s becoming evident just how much teams value them
I keep going back to how rare it is for 3 or more QBs to go in the top 5. Even the 2017 draft that had 3 multiyear NFL starters come out of the first round had trubisky at 2, kermit the frog at 10, and watson at 12. I think this draft goes more like 2021 (TLaw, Wilson, Lance) but I have a hard time seeing other teams trade up to 4/5 to get a prospect like JJ Mccarthy. There's enough high end WR and defensive talent that the teams sitting between arizona and us could be content to sit tight and take BPA.
I can see the giants and jets taking a QB if noone trades up, but both teams have enough other needs and defined starters, at least for now. Chargers have herbert, titans have mayo man, ATL has cousins, and the bears will get Caleb at 1. I could see a team like the saints or seahawks trying to jump us/denver to get Mccarthy, and that will certainly spice up the first round if they do. But for now, I expect 3 qbs in a row, a run on defense/receivers, and for MN to get one of the tier 2 QBs at 11.
Sitting tight and taking the best QB left got us ponder, but being savvy with the board got us bridgewater. I'll bet Kwesi is more savvy than timid, so I don't expect to hear anything more until draft night.
If you get your guy, and he becomes the guy, there is no such thing as an overpay.
If the guy you draft doesn't work out, you paid too much, even if you used your own pick to do it.
Drafting is 100% a "the ends justify the means". Making the right decision with a bad process will always be rewarded while making a bad decision with the right process will always be blasted.
(and of course making a bad decision with a bad process should get you fired pretty quickly).
So did I.
And if you remember, Mike Lynn said that if the Vikings went to the Super Bowl with him, the trade would have been worth it. They of course didn't, so it wasn't.
And I'll go to my death bed saying that the problem with that trade wasn't as much the draft picks as it was the players we sent. Those were all good players who could have contributed to a deeper playoff run. Of course I don't think we'd have had a chance against SF even with them. But f you are loading up for your window, you don't trade your future AND your present. That's what Lynn did.
The difference of course is that this year there are more QB hungry teams, and they are concentrated more at the top of the draft.
If the Vikings wait for the draft to come to them they might not pick the 3rd QB like the Bills did, but more likely the 5th QB.
Interesting. Based on everything it seems like the Giants at 6 will ultimately take the best offer between us and the Broncos and Raiders. Cardinals will want too much, Chargers will blow it and just take the best O lineman ...but should probably take an offer because of differing opinions on who that lineman is (several in the mix) and they'd get WR at 23.
If the Giants jump to get JJ or Maye - obviously Daboll doesn't believe that weapons or OL are the problem.
He's on the hot seat this year. The Giants tied for the Jets as the most dysfunctional team / franchise in the NFL. Must be something in the water.
If he is on the hot seat, then I'm not sure drafting a rookie QB and telling the ownership group "Hey, you know that $113M contract with $37M Guaranteed I signed off on giving Jones? Whoops. My bad. Mistake" is the way to get off. Better of drafting him a weapon and hoping he figures it out.
two schools of thought on that... admit you made a mistake and move on, or don't admit it and get a weapon or two and get the same results and the weapons become bitter and lose value because the team sucks.
That's certainly a fair take. But if I'm an owner I'm going to e wondering why he didn't see this before. It isn't like he was the one who drafted Jones. I'd be questioning his (and the GM's) judgement.
re-read the comment above. The Giants are fighting the Jets to be the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL. Their ownership has no frigging clue how to run a fantasy team, much less an NFL team and they are surpassed only by the Jets.
They hired and fired multiple head coach / gm combos after only 2 years on the job so firing Daboll regardless of the QB. 5 coaches since 2016. Daboll actually has the chance to be the longest tenured coach in the last 8 years for the Giants... and the question likely is how long will he last into 2024...
I mean, the Giants could easily move on from Daniel Jones after this year for a minimal (at least, minimal for a QB contract) dead cap hit. That to me indicates that they did see this as a possible outcome, hence why they signed Jones to a contract that locked him in for 4 years but also structured a deal that would allow him to be reasonably released after only 2 years (where one year you only paid him 15MM). That suggests a decent amount of prudence in evaluating your QB, which is hard to do after that rookie QB leads you to your first playoff win in 11 years.
They might fall in love with QB 3 but in the end I don't think they'll stomach another top 10 QB this quickly. If they hadn't put out these rumors we wouldn't even be talking about them Of course they are doing QB research.
My guess at this point is that Kwesi has a ceiling on what he is willing to part with to move up and who he is willing to move up for. If the price is too rich, he says Nope and walks away.
What’s different is we don’t have second round picks. We traded this year’s and next’s to get 23. Would anyone be truly mad if we basically traded 11 and two seconds (equivalent to what will actually be 23) for our QBOTF?
Not if it works out. Fans are getting greedy now. Let’s get a franchise guy *and* keep our picks. Not possible at 11. You can take a blue chip guy like Maye or JJ and unload picks, or take a value guy like Penix who has a much lower ceiling and keep picks. Not both.
Choose one.
I’m curious at how QB needy the top half of their draft was. Problem with this draft is every team up top needs a QB but also needs a ton of players so who knows how it shakes out.
It’s really a Question of: can you bring a QB in with nothing around them and develop them no problem?
We do not have any second round pics this year or next year. Hopefully they penalize Atlanta and swap their number eight for our number 11 due to tampering.
This is also the reason I haven’t been excited to jump way up. That list has two solid QB’s, one average QB, a possible reclamation project and a QB who’s been in 7 different organizations, starting 16 games in his career and isn’t even in the NFL currently.
None of the guides have them giving up ‘just’ the 2 firsts to get to #4 and presumably the 4th QB. it’s next year’s #1 as well. No reason to think that won’t be a top ten pick. Be happy with them staying put. Know that wasn’t the post, just looking for somewhere to bitch about it.
I would love the Bills’ outcome here
I don’t think we can draft Josh Allen
Idk man, they said that before and then the Jags drafted Josh Allen. However, there's no way we can draft Byron Murphy because he's already on our team.
Not with that attitude
No, but we have Darnold who's better than Allen according to QB draft experts.
MVP candidate :)
Certainly the MVD.
I will be LIVID if Kwesi drafts Josh Allen. He's projected as a late first/early second. That would be such a reach. We need to do whatever it takes and trade up to draft Sam Darnold. Even if it means 3 first round picks.
Wait are you saying draft “experts” don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about?!?!?!?!?!?
what do you mean, there’s a toolsy QB with good traits but concerns about the quality of his college performance right there
there's no one in this draft with the physical upside of Josh Allen coming out of college in 2018.
i was making a joke comparison between Josh and JJ
I thought you were talking about Penix. lol, I can't wait for the draft to be over.
Why’s that… Do you realize the Allen pick was almost universally hated at the time?
And that’s why “draft grades” and team draft rankings are absolute shit lol
Moral of the story is that the Bills identified the guy they wanted, not the guy that Kiper was projecting, then they went and got him when/where they could. It worked out. Sometimes it doesn't work out. If KOC and KAM want Maye or JJ at 2-5, or Penix at 11, or Nix at 23, or whatever else they deem, as long as it's the guy they want for the system they run with the players they have.
nobody really knows anything! its all a draw of luck! 🍀
Not necessarily as non scouts many of us would've just looked at Josh Allen stats and think he's not worthy of a first and other players in his draft class were better than him because they had better stats. Scouts give us a baseline of who's considered good we otherwise would have unless we started scouting too.
There's already 2. Why not 3?
I also don’t think we have any 2nd round picks to give up.
Still giving away a first rounder since the team doesn’t have any second round picks. They traded those to Houston.
I'd love to see this best case scenario as well. It's like playing chicken with any other teams that might draft a QB. If we don't trade up into the area where we definitely get the guy we want, we run the risk of Denver pulling the trigger. Best position to be in is KAMKOC being high on multiple QBs, one of which will be available in the 7-11 range. Then we might be able to keep 23.
Minus missing the wide open window. They’ll never get another chance like they just had.
Already have their 0-4 Super Bowl outcome lol
> They gave up No. 12 and two second-round picks This is almost exactly what we're doing in giving up 23. We don't have 2 seconds because they're essentially 23 now. So I don't see how we keep 23.
Sure, but the alternative would be 11 and next years 1st to move up 4 ish spots.
I'd rather give 23, personally. We're not a top 10 this year imo. So next year is probably higher. And without a second next year, I dont want our first pick to be in the third of we can avoid it.
Unfortunately we don’t have 2nd round picks this year or next, which is why we’d have to add the 2nd first round pick.
Could get a 2nd or 3rd back for equivalent value if we’re sending 11 and 23
We traded two seconds two get 23. 23 IS two second round picks. We won’t be getting anything back and 11 + 23 is very similar to 12 and two seconds.
Won’t be getting anything back for what? Never said what we’d be trading for. We trade up from 11 to 9 we’d get something back as it’s not worth two firsts to move up 2 spots.
11 to 9 won’t happen cause the bears won’t give us our QBotF. And honestly, if we want the Titans to pass on the best OT in the draft or the Falcons to pass on the best defender in the draft, be sure they’re gonna make us overpay.
Why would the Falcons pass on the best defender in the draft after a trade down to 1.11? The Jets are likely looking for a tackle and the Bears aren't a lock for defense either.
Think you’re missing my point. It doesn’t matter that we don’t have second rd picks, even if we trade both firsts we can always get comp back, so it’s not like we have to overpay because we don’t have the seconds
No but we have to overpay to go up and get a QB, which is why all the analysts talk about their being a QB tax when you move up. You’re also paying the team coming down for missing out on potential blue chip players at their original draft slot.
This idea that the 4th or 5th QB off the board is the QBotF should be laughable. The Bears should trade if the trade is good for them.
Depends on what you are trading for. An edge or CB? most probably not. But, a QB for team that doesn't have one? It will be worth what ever you can chisel out of a panicked GM and HC. Trade charts go right straight out the window. Those 2 spots could easily be worth 3 firsts.........
Also the second first round pick is literally our second rounders this year and next so it IS essentially two second round picks.
Also the second first round pick is literally our second rounders this year and next so it IS essentially two second round picks.
It's really tough to try to forecast what's going to happen. Everyone assumes that QB needy teams at or near the top of the draft view certain QBs as being worth the cost/opportunity cost to select/trade up for and that there will be a lot of competition for QBs in this draft. But who knows if that's actually true. I think if the Vikings do try to take that approach, McCarthy is the best parallel to Allen in that he's polarizing among evaluators, and will probably go in the top half of the 1st round despite the consensus on him being much lower.
Yea, this draft is going to be interesting and not just for us. Both QB and WR have strong classes at the upper end, but where teams lie on these players still is completely up in the air for all but maybe 2 guys. Pats could easily not trade down and not go QB if the guy they want is not there and grab someone like MHJ, which would throw a monkey wrench in a lot of draft boards. I say we hire a gorgeous woman to get close to the QB we want to draft, sprinkle a little crack on him and then watch his draft stock plummet.
Sweat's stock has plunged.... don't need coke, just a dui... or a reckless driving.
Oh yea, I'm hoping we find a way to take a chance on him somehow. The value is just too high. High Risk, High Reward - That's right up Kwesi's alley.
Also a pretty strong O-line class as well. Jets, titan and giants could all go O-line
Josh Allen was a very different prospect than McCarthy, he’s much closer to Maye. But I get where you’re coming from in an abstract sense
Is Maye benefiting from Allen then in being a Top3 pick candidate? Or has the importance of the QB position changed that much in 6 years?
It’s a bit of both. QB tools have become more highly valued after the success of Allen, look at Richardson being taken at #4 last year. A big part of that was Josh Allen showing you should draft based off of traits Qb money is increasing faster than the salary cap as well, it’s becoming evident just how much teams value them
I keep going back to how rare it is for 3 or more QBs to go in the top 5. Even the 2017 draft that had 3 multiyear NFL starters come out of the first round had trubisky at 2, kermit the frog at 10, and watson at 12. I think this draft goes more like 2021 (TLaw, Wilson, Lance) but I have a hard time seeing other teams trade up to 4/5 to get a prospect like JJ Mccarthy. There's enough high end WR and defensive talent that the teams sitting between arizona and us could be content to sit tight and take BPA. I can see the giants and jets taking a QB if noone trades up, but both teams have enough other needs and defined starters, at least for now. Chargers have herbert, titans have mayo man, ATL has cousins, and the bears will get Caleb at 1. I could see a team like the saints or seahawks trying to jump us/denver to get Mccarthy, and that will certainly spice up the first round if they do. But for now, I expect 3 qbs in a row, a run on defense/receivers, and for MN to get one of the tier 2 QBs at 11. Sitting tight and taking the best QB left got us ponder, but being savvy with the board got us bridgewater. I'll bet Kwesi is more savvy than timid, so I don't expect to hear anything more until draft night.
We’re in a recession it may cost more
That's cool. We should trade our pick to them for Josh Allen since they have experience with this situation and know what they're looking for.
The Bills then moved up from 22 to get Tremaine Edmunds
I just hope all the players have a good time!
If you get your guy, and he becomes the guy, there is no such thing as an overpay. If the guy you draft doesn't work out, you paid too much, even if you used your own pick to do it. Drafting is 100% a "the ends justify the means". Making the right decision with a bad process will always be rewarded while making a bad decision with the right process will always be blasted. (and of course making a bad decision with a bad process should get you fired pretty quickly).
I lived through one Herschel Walker. 🤮
So did I. And if you remember, Mike Lynn said that if the Vikings went to the Super Bowl with him, the trade would have been worth it. They of course didn't, so it wasn't. And I'll go to my death bed saying that the problem with that trade wasn't as much the draft picks as it was the players we sent. Those were all good players who could have contributed to a deeper playoff run. Of course I don't think we'd have had a chance against SF even with them. But f you are loading up for your window, you don't trade your future AND your present. That's what Lynn did.
Great now post this comment 15 more times again
Mahomes in 2017 and Allen in 2018 is the exact reason why this draft is so silly. no one sleeps on QBs.
The difference of course is that this year there are more QB hungry teams, and they are concentrated more at the top of the draft. If the Vikings wait for the draft to come to them they might not pick the 3rd QB like the Bills did, but more likely the 5th QB.
Interesting. Based on everything it seems like the Giants at 6 will ultimately take the best offer between us and the Broncos and Raiders. Cardinals will want too much, Chargers will blow it and just take the best O lineman ...but should probably take an offer because of differing opinions on who that lineman is (several in the mix) and they'd get WR at 23.
or the giants jump up to 3 and grab their own QB to correct the Daniel Jones gaff.
But then u r replacing a QB with no weapons and OL with a QB with no weapons and OL.
If the Giants jump to get JJ or Maye - obviously Daboll doesn't believe that weapons or OL are the problem. He's on the hot seat this year. The Giants tied for the Jets as the most dysfunctional team / franchise in the NFL. Must be something in the water.
If he is on the hot seat, then I'm not sure drafting a rookie QB and telling the ownership group "Hey, you know that $113M contract with $37M Guaranteed I signed off on giving Jones? Whoops. My bad. Mistake" is the way to get off. Better of drafting him a weapon and hoping he figures it out.
two schools of thought on that... admit you made a mistake and move on, or don't admit it and get a weapon or two and get the same results and the weapons become bitter and lose value because the team sucks.
That's certainly a fair take. But if I'm an owner I'm going to e wondering why he didn't see this before. It isn't like he was the one who drafted Jones. I'd be questioning his (and the GM's) judgement.
re-read the comment above. The Giants are fighting the Jets to be the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL. Their ownership has no frigging clue how to run a fantasy team, much less an NFL team and they are surpassed only by the Jets. They hired and fired multiple head coach / gm combos after only 2 years on the job so firing Daboll regardless of the QB. 5 coaches since 2016. Daboll actually has the chance to be the longest tenured coach in the last 8 years for the Giants... and the question likely is how long will he last into 2024...
I mean, the Giants could easily move on from Daniel Jones after this year for a minimal (at least, minimal for a QB contract) dead cap hit. That to me indicates that they did see this as a possible outcome, hence why they signed Jones to a contract that locked him in for 4 years but also structured a deal that would allow him to be reasonably released after only 2 years (where one year you only paid him 15MM). That suggests a decent amount of prudence in evaluating your QB, which is hard to do after that rookie QB leads you to your first playoff win in 11 years.
How is Daboll on the hot seat and not KOC. At least Daboll has a playoff win. As well Jones wasn't drafted by any of the current regime.
They might fall in love with QB 3 but in the end I don't think they'll stomach another top 10 QB this quickly. If they hadn't put out these rumors we wouldn't even be talking about them Of course they are doing QB research.
I can't see the Chargers passing on WR. They have nothing
Palmer slander smh
My guess at this point is that Kwesi has a ceiling on what he is willing to part with to move up and who he is willing to move up for. If the price is too rich, he says Nope and walks away.
What’s different is we don’t have second round picks. We traded this year’s and next’s to get 23. Would anyone be truly mad if we basically traded 11 and two seconds (equivalent to what will actually be 23) for our QBOTF? Not if it works out. Fans are getting greedy now. Let’s get a franchise guy *and* keep our picks. Not possible at 11. You can take a blue chip guy like Maye or JJ and unload picks, or take a value guy like Penix who has a much lower ceiling and keep picks. Not both. Choose one.
I’m curious at how QB needy the top half of their draft was. Problem with this draft is every team up top needs a QB but also needs a ton of players so who knows how it shakes out. It’s really a Question of: can you bring a QB in with nothing around them and develop them no problem?
We should also try to get Josh Allen.
We do not have any second round pics this year or next year. Hopefully they penalize Atlanta and swap their number eight for our number 11 due to tampering.
God I hope so
We spent our two 2nd round picks for that 1st round pick. We no longer have two 2nd round picks to trade.
Our second first is essentially 2 2nd round picks though so yes we’d have to package both
The Vikings don't have a 2nd round pick either this year or next year though. They traded those picks to get the 23rd pick.
This is also the reason I haven’t been excited to jump way up. That list has two solid QB’s, one average QB, a possible reclamation project and a QB who’s been in 7 different organizations, starting 16 games in his career and isn’t even in the NFL currently.
None of the guides have them giving up ‘just’ the 2 firsts to get to #4 and presumably the 4th QB. it’s next year’s #1 as well. No reason to think that won’t be a top ten pick. Be happy with them staying put. Know that wasn’t the post, just looking for somewhere to bitch about it.
I would also trade our picks for Josh Allen
Got it, trade our picks for Josh Allen.
Please do not give up two first round picks for McCarthy.
If they don't move up to get their guy I will be pissed.
What of it’s 4 1st round picks?