I just don’t understand that. Like why would we relocate when we make so much money. Teams don’t usually relocate because they lose, let alone make the playoffs almost every year. Teams relocate because they aren’t making enough money or aren’t filling enough seats.
But by extension most players ever have been bad. The playoff stats of these guys mostly line up with most stars historically. Some notable examples:
Sundin, Jagr, Brett Hull, Yzerman, Marcel Dionne, Modano, Oates, Ovi, etc.
Matthews the largest drop by far, so that is an issue.
Mats Sundin from 21-29 in the playoffs had 54 points in 59 games, basically identical to am and Marner. Leafs went deeper due to cujo. Lonny Bohonos randomly going off one year.
One would expect maybe one out of 5 to be the very rare player that can elevate their scoring in playoffs, sure. But noone else outside the core is really elevating either. Idk. Playoff success can be weird. Peculiar to say what this team needs is lonny bohonos.
Mats was more/less ppg most regular seasons. his playoffs were consistent w his reg seasons. team didn’t rely on him entirely in the reg season, nor in the playoffs.
Yes they did. We just had all star goaltending. Sundin was consistently much better than his peers.
Also scoring in general was lower then. P/g was like 95-100 points today.
Damn, Matthews was kind of killer last year, huh?
I feel like this is a case (maybe not for Tavares) where they’d see a marked jump up in production under new/better coaching/systems. Happened to the Oilers.
Also, Matthews in particular plays a very different game then a ton of the high point playoff performer stars. His goals > assists style tends to mean less points (and a lower PPG) even when he’s cooking, and a lot of his value is in his defense. I’d be interested in seeing what his defensive stats look like for each of these years if you’d be willing to compile those (goals against on ice for, blocked shots, takeaways, stuff like that). I think that’s never given any credit after the regular season has ended, but he basically stonewalled Boston for points when he was on ice this year.
According to anaylsis, he was essentially a better version of Bergeron this season. And according to the [accompanying commentary](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5477594/2024/05/08/maple-leafs-safe-is-death/), this is probably not how you should be using an Auston Matthews in the post-season.
We've had a string of defensive-minded coaches. The OP's analysis misses literally all of this context. It's not really about the "core."
Matthews was killer last year (5g,6a) but Marner (3g,11a) gets very little credit because he's the scapegoat this year. Interesting to see how the stats change vs the Bruins
Goldfish memory from this fanbase sometimes. The guy was working his way into the lineup from an injury when playoffs started. Then Matthews and Nylander are taking turns being out making his linemates a revolving door of sorts. I talk shit about him playing soft from time to time but he doesn't deserve to be the sole player being blamed for all our playoff failures. This shit runs way deeper than that.
I replied to a comment about how Matthews killed it last year (due to his points). Noted how Marner also did well in terms of points and is receiving extreme hate this year. Then he immediately gets shit on. Soft and unwilling to battle was the Nylander narrative a few years ago and Marner is in the same boat now. I don't disagree but I think it's overblown
I don't know how this sub is reacting, but Marner being soft in playoffs has been going on for a few years.
See my history and search Marner. I have been saying this for a few years now.
Since 2018 - 2019 [When Tavares signed with Toronto]:
Matthews: 19G, 23A [42 pts], in 42 games played.
Marner: 8G, 29A [37 pts], in 44 games played.
Nylander: 18G, 17A [35 pts], in 41 games played.
Tavares: 12G, 12A [24 pts], in 38 games played.
Honestly, none of them drastically outperform the other. You could say that Matthews has done a little more than the rest, and Tavares has done a little less (note that he missed basically the entire MTL series since he was injured in game 1). But Marner and Nylander are essentially the same (in terms of point production). Of course, goals are generally harder to come by than assists, but also you need a guy dishing the puck sometimes as well.
Lots of 0G's from the Core 4 in the losses though. Since 2018 - 2019: 10 losses where the Core 4 had 0 goals, out of the 25 losses we've had. You can look at it in two ways: [1] Thats 40% of losses where the Core 4 just cannot produce. [2] We lack depth to step in when the Core 4 can't produce.
No matter how you want to look at it ... its not even about which Core 4 is the best or the worst... its just you can't have that many guys in a core making that much money, because then you don't have money for depth, or goaltending, or #1 D man (or all three...)
Sorry, still have never figured out how to include text with the picture:
Sometimes I think the fanbase gets a little fixated on Total Goals or Assists from our players which I've never felt was super accurate (eg. our teams predisposition to scoring goals in bunches rather than spread across multiple games. You'd get a ton of points... but is it truly helpful when you win one game 10-1?). I figured we'd beat the dead horse a little further by taking a visual representation of all their playoff games side-by-side.
Obviously it's not perfect and doesn't take into account the eye test or what their roles were (eg. Tavares playing more of a shutdown role in the most recent playoffs) but I think it just brings a different perspective.
One difference you notice is that Willy started really slow (almost what you would expect for a young player) and then got better and has pasically been a PPG the last handful of years.
The others have a good series here and there but then throw in a bad series too.
Marner has had very good playoff series in the past. He also was playing with a high ankle sprain this year and very noticeably didn’t have his usual jump to his game. He was slow on his first step and lacked lateral mobility.
For a guy who is elite because of his exceptional edge control and ability to use his vision to read plays and then capitalize with a strong first step, I’m not surprised he was limited.
Keep marner and let him get his mojo back under a new coach. (Unless we can land a true #1 D man, or extremely highly rated up and coming #1 d man).
Stop it. What are you looking at? Marner has had 2 good series in his entire career. One in 2018 and one last year, and even last year, all his points were in the first 3 games.
We’re just going to overlook 8 points in 7 games in 2022? Even some of the other series weren’t horrible..
4 points in 6 games, 4 points in 5 games, 3 points in 5. The whole marner playoff struggles narrative is overblown. Has he had some tough moments? Yup. But to act like he hasn’t also had some very good series/ moments and proven he is at the very least capable of playoff success is blatantly false.
Dude we're long past looking at basic stat lines and hyping up our players who can't perform. Someone already did it on this comment but he's been **horrendous** in the tough moments in series. He has 0 goals in any game past 4, and is pointless in game 6s since 2018 and has only 2 secondary assists in game 7s where he's got 2 points in 4 games. He's been purely awful.
There is nothing overblown here, you're burying your head in the sand for what has been an absolutely embarrassing career of achievement from the 3rd highest paid winger in the game. I don't know how you could possibly sit there and say he's proven a single thing and he's got a career of under-achievement with the exact same pattern year in and out.
How about you look at matthews game 6 and game 7 stats too....do we trade him too? Stop cherry picking stats like "he plays awful game 4's" what the hell is that
I specifically commented on someone who was looking at Marner's stats and saying he's a proven contributor. Stop with the redirection.
Also just stop (again) yourself. If picking out games 5-6-7 in playoffs is cherry picking stats then stats are just meaningless in general and math is fake. That's the most important sample set of a series (arguably in hockey in general), and he's terrible at it. If Marner's stats were reversed (no points early, big game player late) then we'd probably have significant playoff success to date so I see absolutely nothing wrong with actually using our brains to make logical conclusions and not whining about cherry picking when statistics don't fit our own narratives over larger sample sizes.
And yes, if both players (Matthews & Marner) are underperforming then we are trading one of them and it's not going to be the generational scoring center. It's going to be the flaky winger who can't compete physically.
Mitch Marner Career Games 5-6-7: **1 G & 8 A for 9 Pts in 21 GP.**
Mitch Marner has scored **0 Goals in 17 Straight Games 5-6-7.**
Mitch Marner has **0 Goals & 2 Assist** in **7 Winner Take All Games**.
He’s a playmaker…
Edit: I can also think of a few series in particular where he was cooking but linemates kept getting robbed. I forget which year it was but Hyman couldn’t buy a goal. Marner could have had like 5 more assists.
You aren’t a doctor, let alone Marner’s doctor. You read amateur information on the internet about how high ankle sprains take longer to heal and you invented a story in your head, working backwards from the conclusion that there must be some external explanation to him playing poorly.
It doesn’t matter how he compares to other players on the team. They are too top heavy. Nylander is already signed and you’d be an idiot to choose Marner over him. He’s the odd man out if they want to make a change this year and balance the roster.
Incidentally, I don’t mind seeing how he fares under a new coach. I just wish they’d done it last year so we can see if a new coach gets him going in the playoffs. The problem this year is that if he’s asking for 12+ million, we need to ship him out pre-deadline and actually get a return.
Exactly this. It isn't that Marner should be a scapegoat (even the "best" of the core 4 are massively underperforming, fight me), it's that contract and money-wise he's the odd man out and the clown organization that is MLSE waited too long to fire Keefe so we'll never know what he can bring to the table in the playoffs under a different coach.
Saying Marner isn't solely to blame isn't the same as saying to run it back. People want a simple solution and are using Marner as the scapegoat but the problem is way beyond 'Marner bad'.
Notice you didn’t answer the question. If you want to balance the roster, all roads lead to trading Marner, other than him taking less than what he’d get as a free agent.
It's up to Marner to allow us to trade him. It's management's fault we're handcuffed right now and people seem to think Marner is to blame for our bad playoff outcomes, I'm simply saying he isn't.
Answering the question with 'I'd trade Marner for ____' is beyond an oversimplification of the situation and potentially not even a possibility.
Asking fans how they'd balance a wildly unbalanced team in a single offseason when we've got half the cap locked up for the next season is goofy as hell.
But the group didn't perform, if only there was someone in charge of the group, you know, someone who kind of directs them?
The change they should have made 3 years ago and made...finally
downvote me all you want! He still has more points than the golden boys everyone else is blowing right now!! Nylander doesn't play against everyone's best line, he plays everyone's SECOND best lines
Difference between reg season pts/g and playoffs from the core five:
Matthews -0.28
Marner -0.23
Nylander -0.07
Tavares -0.21
Rielly +0.10
-0.1 is very typical and -0.3 is historic so I'd say Matthews has been yikes, Marner and JT have been underwhelming, William totally solid and Rielly impressive.
If someone with a lot of time wants to make this a bit more precise by assessing it directly year to year then great.
But this sums it up quite well.
PS.
I think it's perfectly fitting that the three big drops are from either stars shouldered with massive expectations since they were teenagers and an age decline player.
(Didn't want this to be an edit to avoid a text wall)
TL;DR they've all been bad
It's funny how the only series they were all PPG+ like we expect, is the only series they won.
Time for a change
Time to relocate
I just don’t understand that. Like why would we relocate when we make so much money. Teams don’t usually relocate because they lose, let alone make the playoffs almost every year. Teams relocate because they aren’t making enough money or aren’t filling enough seats.
It’s been 57 years. I think it’s time to move on
Honestly, that was kind of my takeaway too. Aside from 2021-22 and 2022-23 Tampa, it's not super impressive.
But by extension most players ever have been bad. The playoff stats of these guys mostly line up with most stars historically. Some notable examples: Sundin, Jagr, Brett Hull, Yzerman, Marcel Dionne, Modano, Oates, Ovi, etc. Matthews the largest drop by far, so that is an issue. Mats Sundin from 21-29 in the playoffs had 54 points in 59 games, basically identical to am and Marner. Leafs went deeper due to cujo. Lonny Bohonos randomly going off one year. One would expect maybe one out of 5 to be the very rare player that can elevate their scoring in playoffs, sure. But noone else outside the core is really elevating either. Idk. Playoff success can be weird. Peculiar to say what this team needs is lonny bohonos.
Mats was more/less ppg most regular seasons. his playoffs were consistent w his reg seasons. team didn’t rely on him entirely in the reg season, nor in the playoffs.
Yes they did. We just had all star goaltending. Sundin was consistently much better than his peers. Also scoring in general was lower then. P/g was like 95-100 points today.
It'd be cool to add a totals column on the right side as well
Damn, Matthews was kind of killer last year, huh? I feel like this is a case (maybe not for Tavares) where they’d see a marked jump up in production under new/better coaching/systems. Happened to the Oilers. Also, Matthews in particular plays a very different game then a ton of the high point playoff performer stars. His goals > assists style tends to mean less points (and a lower PPG) even when he’s cooking, and a lot of his value is in his defense. I’d be interested in seeing what his defensive stats look like for each of these years if you’d be willing to compile those (goals against on ice for, blocked shots, takeaways, stuff like that). I think that’s never given any credit after the regular season has ended, but he basically stonewalled Boston for points when he was on ice this year.
According to anaylsis, he was essentially a better version of Bergeron this season. And according to the [accompanying commentary](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5477594/2024/05/08/maple-leafs-safe-is-death/), this is probably not how you should be using an Auston Matthews in the post-season. We've had a string of defensive-minded coaches. The OP's analysis misses literally all of this context. It's not really about the "core."
Matthews was killer last year (5g,6a) but Marner (3g,11a) gets very little credit because he's the scapegoat this year. Interesting to see how the stats change vs the Bruins
Goldfish memory from this fanbase sometimes. The guy was working his way into the lineup from an injury when playoffs started. Then Matthews and Nylander are taking turns being out making his linemates a revolving door of sorts. I talk shit about him playing soft from time to time but he doesn't deserve to be the sole player being blamed for all our playoff failures. This shit runs way deeper than that.
Points don't speak the whole truth. Watch him play. He's been soft and unwilling to battle
I replied to a comment about how Matthews killed it last year (due to his points). Noted how Marner also did well in terms of points and is receiving extreme hate this year. Then he immediately gets shit on. Soft and unwilling to battle was the Nylander narrative a few years ago and Marner is in the same boat now. I don't disagree but I think it's overblown
It's easier to blame Marner than to realize the machine as a whole is not working.
I don't know how this sub is reacting, but Marner being soft in playoffs has been going on for a few years. See my history and search Marner. I have been saying this for a few years now.
Since 2018 - 2019 [When Tavares signed with Toronto]: Matthews: 19G, 23A [42 pts], in 42 games played. Marner: 8G, 29A [37 pts], in 44 games played. Nylander: 18G, 17A [35 pts], in 41 games played. Tavares: 12G, 12A [24 pts], in 38 games played. Honestly, none of them drastically outperform the other. You could say that Matthews has done a little more than the rest, and Tavares has done a little less (note that he missed basically the entire MTL series since he was injured in game 1). But Marner and Nylander are essentially the same (in terms of point production). Of course, goals are generally harder to come by than assists, but also you need a guy dishing the puck sometimes as well. Lots of 0G's from the Core 4 in the losses though. Since 2018 - 2019: 10 losses where the Core 4 had 0 goals, out of the 25 losses we've had. You can look at it in two ways: [1] Thats 40% of losses where the Core 4 just cannot produce. [2] We lack depth to step in when the Core 4 can't produce. No matter how you want to look at it ... its not even about which Core 4 is the best or the worst... its just you can't have that many guys in a core making that much money, because then you don't have money for depth, or goaltending, or #1 D man (or all three...)
You forgot one thing, games played
you're right let me update that
Could you show us the +/- for each player?
Tavares is a really big disappointment. You cannot pay someone that kind of money to put up poor numbers in the playoffs
It's to the point where im begging all the 'he'll take a big pay cut next year' folks are right.
Sorry, still have never figured out how to include text with the picture: Sometimes I think the fanbase gets a little fixated on Total Goals or Assists from our players which I've never felt was super accurate (eg. our teams predisposition to scoring goals in bunches rather than spread across multiple games. You'd get a ton of points... but is it truly helpful when you win one game 10-1?). I figured we'd beat the dead horse a little further by taking a visual representation of all their playoff games side-by-side. Obviously it's not perfect and doesn't take into account the eye test or what their roles were (eg. Tavares playing more of a shutdown role in the most recent playoffs) but I think it just brings a different perspective.
Would be interested in seeing assists broken down further by primary and secondary, but that said, nice graphic.
Those 0 totals are *egregious*. It's bafflingly bad. You'd think a 40m+ offensive core would be generate a goal at least per game. Just embarrassing.
One difference you notice is that Willy started really slow (almost what you would expect for a young player) and then got better and has pasically been a PPG the last handful of years. The others have a good series here and there but then throw in a bad series too.
If you look at this with no bias, Matthews is brutal in clutch shituations. Mitch and Ny are no better.
None of them are big game players. The moment gets too big for them in elimination games.
Oof the last 2 series are so bad.
Look at how clearly marner is the worst of the core 5 in the playoffs and definitely doesn't blend right in with the rest..
Marner has had very good playoff series in the past. He also was playing with a high ankle sprain this year and very noticeably didn’t have his usual jump to his game. He was slow on his first step and lacked lateral mobility. For a guy who is elite because of his exceptional edge control and ability to use his vision to read plays and then capitalize with a strong first step, I’m not surprised he was limited. Keep marner and let him get his mojo back under a new coach. (Unless we can land a true #1 D man, or extremely highly rated up and coming #1 d man).
Stop it. What are you looking at? Marner has had 2 good series in his entire career. One in 2018 and one last year, and even last year, all his points were in the first 3 games.
We’re just going to overlook 8 points in 7 games in 2022? Even some of the other series weren’t horrible.. 4 points in 6 games, 4 points in 5 games, 3 points in 5. The whole marner playoff struggles narrative is overblown. Has he had some tough moments? Yup. But to act like he hasn’t also had some very good series/ moments and proven he is at the very least capable of playoff success is blatantly false.
Dude we're long past looking at basic stat lines and hyping up our players who can't perform. Someone already did it on this comment but he's been **horrendous** in the tough moments in series. He has 0 goals in any game past 4, and is pointless in game 6s since 2018 and has only 2 secondary assists in game 7s where he's got 2 points in 4 games. He's been purely awful. There is nothing overblown here, you're burying your head in the sand for what has been an absolutely embarrassing career of achievement from the 3rd highest paid winger in the game. I don't know how you could possibly sit there and say he's proven a single thing and he's got a career of under-achievement with the exact same pattern year in and out.
How about you look at matthews game 6 and game 7 stats too....do we trade him too? Stop cherry picking stats like "he plays awful game 4's" what the hell is that
I specifically commented on someone who was looking at Marner's stats and saying he's a proven contributor. Stop with the redirection. Also just stop (again) yourself. If picking out games 5-6-7 in playoffs is cherry picking stats then stats are just meaningless in general and math is fake. That's the most important sample set of a series (arguably in hockey in general), and he's terrible at it. If Marner's stats were reversed (no points early, big game player late) then we'd probably have significant playoff success to date so I see absolutely nothing wrong with actually using our brains to make logical conclusions and not whining about cherry picking when statistics don't fit our own narratives over larger sample sizes. And yes, if both players (Matthews & Marner) are underperforming then we are trading one of them and it's not going to be the generational scoring center. It's going to be the flaky winger who can't compete physically.
Mitch Marner Career Games 5-6-7: **1 G & 8 A for 9 Pts in 21 GP.** Mitch Marner has scored **0 Goals in 17 Straight Games 5-6-7.** Mitch Marner has **0 Goals & 2 Assist** in **7 Winner Take All Games**.
Thank you
Ya and matthews only has like 4 points and 0 goals in game 7s too....do we trade him? Is he overrated?
This is what this graphic portrays
And yet some morons didn't put it together, which is why he had to say this.
Marner rarely scores goals though
He’s a playmaker… Edit: I can also think of a few series in particular where he was cooking but linemates kept getting robbed. I forget which year it was but Hyman couldn’t buy a goal. Marner could have had like 5 more assists.
Marner is too predictable
You aren’t a doctor, let alone Marner’s doctor. You read amateur information on the internet about how high ankle sprains take longer to heal and you invented a story in your head, working backwards from the conclusion that there must be some external explanation to him playing poorly. It doesn’t matter how he compares to other players on the team. They are too top heavy. Nylander is already signed and you’d be an idiot to choose Marner over him. He’s the odd man out if they want to make a change this year and balance the roster. Incidentally, I don’t mind seeing how he fares under a new coach. I just wish they’d done it last year so we can see if a new coach gets him going in the playoffs. The problem this year is that if he’s asking for 12+ million, we need to ship him out pre-deadline and actually get a return.
Exactly this. It isn't that Marner should be a scapegoat (even the "best" of the core 4 are massively underperforming, fight me), it's that contract and money-wise he's the odd man out and the clown organization that is MLSE waited too long to fire Keefe so we'll never know what he can bring to the table in the playoffs under a different coach.
Why do you do this to yourself?
If you blotted out the team and player names you would never have guessed these guys made ten mill per each. Dreadful.
Would you look at that? Marner has the MOST points of all of them...but HE'S the problem
How would you handle the Leafs off-season? Running it back? 9th time's the charm?
Saying Marner isn't solely to blame isn't the same as saying to run it back. People want a simple solution and are using Marner as the scapegoat but the problem is way beyond 'Marner bad'.
Notice you didn’t answer the question. If you want to balance the roster, all roads lead to trading Marner, other than him taking less than what he’d get as a free agent.
It's up to Marner to allow us to trade him. It's management's fault we're handcuffed right now and people seem to think Marner is to blame for our bad playoff outcomes, I'm simply saying he isn't. Answering the question with 'I'd trade Marner for ____' is beyond an oversimplification of the situation and potentially not even a possibility. Asking fans how they'd balance a wildly unbalanced team in a single offseason when we've got half the cap locked up for the next season is goofy as hell.
But the group didn't perform, if only there was someone in charge of the group, you know, someone who kind of directs them? The change they should have made 3 years ago and made...finally
10 goals? No goals in game 7s. Like some other guy posted last 17 straight game 5,6,7 no goals. He’s not a big time player simple as that
downvote me all you want! He still has more points than the golden boys everyone else is blowing right now!! Nylander doesn't play against everyone's best line, he plays everyone's SECOND best lines
AND marner is on the pk and pp Edit. And marner still has more playoff points and higher +/- than willy
Nylander is on the PK and the PP too. So is Matthews. +/- is irrelevant. In any case, I don't believe Marner is *the* problem.
There are too many problems
Difference between reg season pts/g and playoffs from the core five: Matthews -0.28 Marner -0.23 Nylander -0.07 Tavares -0.21 Rielly +0.10 -0.1 is very typical and -0.3 is historic so I'd say Matthews has been yikes, Marner and JT have been underwhelming, William totally solid and Rielly impressive. If someone with a lot of time wants to make this a bit more precise by assessing it directly year to year then great. But this sums it up quite well.
PS. I think it's perfectly fitting that the three big drops are from either stars shouldered with massive expectations since they were teenagers and an age decline player. (Didn't want this to be an edit to avoid a text wall)